We'll see 3 revisions total on GDP reports. I'm betting the advance is overestimated, result from missing a host of trade import data.
But on one of my rough correlation calculations, I came up with 1.48% and 1.23% which sent me off on a "what did I do wrong" formula hunt for a couple of hours. That one is missing a month of data (last month just repeated), this was ISM correlation. I've also come up with numbers as high as 2.4%, but that was before the trade data and retail sales.
I like how the #1 answer is "who cares, I need a job". Damn straight. More like econ gives one something to do in-between firing off resumes.
Looks like only 8 out of 60 were right in their guess. The majority, 9, were off by 0.4%. That said, we'll see what the revisions say, for even with 3 versions of quarterly GDP, the BEA further revises the numbers, GDP revisions, info, with a couple of charts.
Comments
I'm 1.5%-2.0% Q2 2010 GDP guess
Mainly over the ISM, retail sales, and my fav, the trade deficit.
I guess 2.0 or slightly less because of trade
You are right. It takes a while for US Economy to slow down. I can't see 1% or 1.5%. Q3 will be a disaster.
Burton Leed
I should mention revisions
We'll see 3 revisions total on GDP reports. I'm betting the advance is overestimated, result from missing a host of trade import data.
But on one of my rough correlation calculations, I came up with 1.48% and 1.23% which sent me off on a "what did I do wrong" formula hunt for a couple of hours. That one is missing a month of data (last month just repeated), this was ISM correlation. I've also come up with numbers as high as 2.4%, but that was before the trade data and retail sales.
I like how the #1 answer is "who cares, I need a job". Damn straight. More like econ gives one something to do in-between firing off resumes.
if anyone is wondering where Q2 2010 2.4% GDP report is
I'm waiting on some raw data updates before posting.
There is some astounding revisions going back 3 years, which I will also write about. It's coming!
Q2 advanced poll results
Looks like only 8 out of 60 were right in their guess. The majority, 9, were off by 0.4%. That said, we'll see what the revisions say, for even with 3 versions of quarterly GDP, the BEA further revises the numbers, GDP revisions, info, with a couple of charts.