Like bonds, which move in ~60 year interest rate cycles (called the Kondratieff cycle), stocks also have very long, secular cycles that become apparent when we step back for the 30,000 foot view. For example, there was a long-term bull market from 1946-1966, followed by a long-term bear market from 1966-1982, followed by a long-term bull market from 1982-2000. Now we are in the midst of another long-term down cycle.

In this diary I will compare past long-term declines to estimate how steep a similar decline in the stock market and the economy is likely in this long-term bear market.