On this Easter/Passover weekend while we are enjoying the blossoming of spring, Robert Reich has a blog post that nicely encapsulates a debate percolating through the econoblogosphere:

[W]e're not at the beginning of the end. I'm not even sure we're at the end of the beginning. All of these pieces of upbeat news are connected by one fact: the flood of money the Fed has been releasing into the economy.... The real question is whether this means an economic turnaround. The answer is it doesn't.

The only economic fundamental that's changed ... is that so many people got so badly burned that the trust necessary for consumers, investors, and businesses to repeat what they did then has vanished.
....

I spent the better part of an hour yesterday evening debating Larry Kudlow on his CNBC program, along with Arthur Laffer and two other financial analysts, all of whom were sure that the stock market had hit bottom and was now poised for a major recovery. I admire cockeyed optimism, and I understand why Wall Street and its spokespeople want to see a return of the bull market. Hell, everyone with a stock portfolio wants to see it grow again. But wishing for something is different from getting it.

In other words, the "green shoots" side and "dead of winter" side are polar opposites, and never the twain shall meet.

Not so. As it happens, there's good reason to believe that both sides are right.