CDS

New European Bail Out Announced - Greek Debt Gets a HairCut

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We have another Eurozone bail out. The Euro Summit has released a 15 page statement (pdf) overviewing the agreement. The plan was ratified by all 17 Member States of the euro area.

First, there is a haircut on Greek debt, which while pretending to be voluntary, the volunteer or else threat behind it would allow a complete Greek default, where bond holders would get nothing and banks would probably be ruined.

We invite Greece, private investors and all parties concerned to develop a voluntary bond exchange with a nominal discount of 50% on notional Greek debt held by private investors. The Euro zone Member States would contribute to the PSI package up to 30 bn euro.

The plan is to reduce Greek debt to 120% of GDP by 2020 and is about €100 billion reduction with yet another €100 billion in additional aid.

Greece Downgraded Again, Credit Default Swaps Soar

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Greece has been downgraded to CCC, a drop of three credit rating grades, by the almighty S&P credit ratings agency.

Greece had its credit rating cut three levels by Standard & Poor’s, which branded the nation with the world’s lowest debt grade and said a restructuring looks “increasingly likely.”

The move to CCC from B reflects “our view that there is a significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults,” S&P said in a statement today. “Risks for the implementation of Greece’s EU/IMF borrowing program are rising, given Greece’s increased financing needs and ongoing internal political disagreements surrounding the policy conditions required.”

The problem now is soaring credit default swaps:

Credit-default swaps on Greece, Ireland and Portugal surged to records on concern European governments’ struggles to resolve the deficit crisis will threaten their ability to pay their debts.

Swaps on Greece jumped 47 basis points to an all-time high of 1,610 as of 5:30 p.m. in London after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation, according to CMA. Contracts on Ireland soared 27 basis points to 740, Portugal climbed 22 to 764 and the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments jumped 7 basis points to 218, approaching the record 221.75 set Jan. 10.

Remember those from the financial crisis? Credit default swaps are insurance policies, anyone can buy, which pay out when a nation defaults.

Greece loses, they win. The problem is those who issue CDSes will have to pay out. Remember AIG?

Europe Probing Goldman Sachs on Sovereign Credit Default Swaps

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YES! Bloomberg is reporting 16 banks, including Goldman Sachs are being probed by the EU for anti-trust for manipulation of the the financial derivative, credit default swaps, market.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 14 other investment banks face European Union antitrust probes into credit-default swaps for companies and sovereign debt.

The EU is investigating whether 16 banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, colluded by giving market information to Markit Group Ltd., a data provider majority-owned by Wall Street’s largest banks. It will also examine if nine of the firms struck unfair deals with Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s European derivatives clearinghouse, shutting out rivals.

“Lack of transparency in markets can lead to abusive behavior and facilitate violations of competition rules,” Joaquin Almunia, the EU’s competition commissioner, said in an e-mailed statement. “I hope our investigation will contribute to a better functioning of financial markets.”

Global regulators have sought to toughen regulation of the $583 trillion credit-default swaps market, saying the trades helped fuel the financial crisis. The EU’s probes add to separate investigations in the U.K. and U.S. into whether banks colluded to manipulate the London interbank offered rate.

Credit default swaps allow anyone, not directly involved in the underlying asset, to place bets on whether that underlying security, asset will default or not. Credit default swaps are used for speculation. In the case of sovereign debt, that causes the cost of financing that debt to increase, dramatically.

Greece Downgraded. EU Looks to Ban Sovereign Credit Default Swap Speculation

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Greece has been downgraded by Moody's:

Moody's slashed Greece's credit rating by three notches on Monday due to an increased default risk, raising the specter that the distressed euro zone sovereign may have to restructure its debt, perhaps before 2013.

The move increased pressure on euro zone leaders to ease repayment terms on bailout loans to Athens, just as Germany and its allies seem to have turned their backs on more radical steps to help it reduce its debt through bond purchases or buy-backs.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greek debt to B1 from Ba1 -- lower than Egypt -- and said it may cut further, drawing an indignant protest from the Greek Finance Ministry.

This downgrade caused Greece's Credit Default Swaps to hit a record high:

  • Five-Year CDS On Greece Hit 1035BPs Intraday, Above Record Close of 1032BPs
  • Cost Of One-Year CDS On Greece Rises 6.1% - Markit
  • $476 Mln New CDS Traded On Greece In Week Ended Feb. 25 - DTCC

The cost to insure EUR10 million of Greek bonds for five years spiked 5.3%, or $52,000 a year,

Meanwhile the EU just did something completely practical, they just voted to ban CDS speculation:

The European Parliament voted Monday to stop investors from buying insurance for government debt if they don't own the underlying bond, as it seeks to fight financial speculation.

European Bail Out Brew Bubbles Over Again

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Europe's never ending sovereign debt and default problems are rearing their ugly head once again. Just a rumor hitting the rounds that Portugal is being pressed to take a bail out, even when those rumors are denied was enough to send their bonds reeling. As it was the European Central Bank has to buy Portugal's bonds.

The ECB intervened to buy government bonds on the secondary market.

"They're buying five-years and 10-years in Portugal, whatever people are offering really," one trader said.

Another trader said the ECB appeared to be buying Greek and Irish bonds too. EU sources say the central bank has not yet bought Spanish government debt.

Credit default swaps for sovereign debt jumped 11 basis points on Portugal and 26.5 basis points for Ireland.

There is a domino theory that if Portugal is the next nation to be bailed out and saved from sovereign debt, Spain will assuredly also go south. Spain is a much larger economy. Ireland & Greece have already taken bail outs. It is assumed Portugal is next in the domino falling list. Contagion is also assumed when it gets to Spain. Contagion means the PIGS sovereign debt crisis will affect the United States and other nations outside of Europe.

Goldman Sachs Paid Out $4.3 Billion of U.S. Taxpayer Money to Foreign Companies

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Senator Chuck Grassley has received documentation from Goldman Sachs showing the top recipients of AIG money. The grand total is $4.3 billion. Below are the recipients and their amounts. As you can see, they are all foreign entities. In other words, U.S. taxpayer money, used to bail out AIG which in turn was used to pay off Goldman Sachs went straight out of the country and into foreign banks.

  1. DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentrale-Genossenschafts Bank: $1.8 billion
  2. Banco Santander Central Hispano SA: $484 million
  3. Rabobank Nederland-London Branch: $182 million
  4. Zurcher Kantonal bank: $200 million
  5. Dexia Bank S.A: $105 million
  6. Calyon-Cedex Branch: $200 million
  7. The Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corporation: $173 million
  8. Depfa Bank Plc: $126 million
  9. Sierra finance plc: $223 million
  10. PGGM Pensioenfonds: $47 million
  11. Natixis: $2 million
  12. Zulma finance plc: $416 million
  13. Stoneheath Re CRDV G: $68 million
  14. Hospitals of Ontario Pension Plan: $94 million
  15. Venice finance plc: $216 million
  16. KBC Asset Management NVD Star Finance: $191 million
  17. MNGD Pension Funds LTD: $69 million
  18. Infinity finance plc: $277 million
  19. Barclays Bank PLC: $27 million
  20. GSAM Credit CDO LTD: $13 million
  21. Signum Platinum: $38 million

Trading on State, City Defaults

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The California Treasury has issued a press release on Big Banks selling their bonds and betting California defaults. The vehicle which the default bets are placed are.....CDSes or credit default swaps.

State Treasurer Bill Lockyer today released data that show the top six fee earners among investment banks that sell California bonds have, since 2007, completed more than $27.5 billion of trades in a market where investors can profit by taking a dim view of the State’s credit risk.

All Things Magnetar

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For those of you who have not picked up Yves Smith's book, ECONned, perhaps you've never heard of the Magnetar Trade.

In the wake of the Goldman Sachs civil fraud charge, Journalists and Bloggers are wondering and hoping where the next investigative shoe will drop. Hence, the Magnetar fund, a hedge fund of synthetic CDOs, where buttloads of CDS bets were placed against them, is being revisited.

Details on Abacus, Synthetic CDOs at the Heart of the Goldman Sachs Fraud Case

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Now the world is awash in Goldman Sachs stories. If you have no idea what they are talking about. Credit Slips explains an Abacus CDO in English (semi):

A CDO is more or less a hedge fund. It's an actively managed, unregulated investment fund. The assets can be anything. In the case of the Abacus 2007-ACA deal, the assets were a portfolio of credit default swaps (CDS). The Abacus CDO was the securitization of a bunch of CDS positions (if it has cash flow, it can be securitized).

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