Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on November 5th, 2011 were 390,000. The DOL reports this as a decrease of 10,000 from the last week. The previous week was revised, from 397,000 to 400,000, an increase of 3,000. Still, initial unemployment claims are breaking 400,000 and this is a 7 month low.
Initial weekly unemployment claims decreased to 398,000, the first time initial claims has dropped below 400,000 since April. That said, last week was revised up from 418,000 to 422,000. The 4 week moving average is 413,750, but declined 8,500 from last week's 422,250. A weekly average above 400,000 does not indicate job growth.
Initial weekly unemployment claims decreased to 404,000 this week. Remember when on December 30th, Initial Jobless Claims dropped below 400,000 and everyone cheered? Then, the last week IUC jumped up to 445,000? Which pattern is true? Well, they both are.
Initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions and this week is no exception. Last week, a yo-yo number was predicted while most of the press went gaga over two weeks of declines in the initial unemployment claims. This week, the increase is 20,000.
Initial weekly unemployment claims increased 22,000 to 496,000. There is a lot of statistical noise in initial weekly unemployment claims and one can guarantee this number will be revised. So why is this important? We're seeing a trend at this point and it's increasing, not decreasing as the green shooters, cyclical folks believe it would.
The 4 week moving average since the start of this recession:
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