Recent comments

  • Mcbride also does his own calculations and he's almost always right.

    Reply to: Real Construction on Track to Add 1.24 Percentage Points to 2nd Quarter GDP   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • Bill Mcbride on Q2 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate The BEA released the underlying details for the Q2 advance GDP report today. Last Thursday, the BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased slightly in Q2. The decline was due to less investment in petroleum exploration. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration declined from a $112.5 billion annual rate in Q1 to a $81.1 billion annual rate in Q2. Excluding petroleum, non-residential investment in structures increased at a 6.8% annual rate in Q2 (solid growth).

    the construction report shows a small QoQ increase in "power construction", which i had been misled to believe included that oil & gas drilling, which Bill reports down over 20%...that covers a large part of the discrepancy in my estimates...not all of it, but a big part...

     

    Reply to: Real Construction on Track to Add 1.24 Percentage Points to 2nd Quarter GDP   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • Hey Chet,
    Solutions are difficult. Solving the world's problems consists of a planning phase, and an execution phase. The first is easy. The second is a challenge.

    The first step to finding a solution is to have an accurate theology and anthropology - a correct view of ultimate reality and the nature of humanity.

    The reason I say that is that first, you need to have an understanding of the design intent and purpose for which humanity exists, and then you need to have an understanding of the nature of humans and how they act.

    Now you can come to your own conclusions about those two things. If you conclude the universe is somehow self-generated, without purpose, and random, and that people are basically good, though they have no intrinsic value (a typical humanist-materialist world view) you will come to one set of solutions.

    If you come to the conclusion that the universe is designed by intention of a super-intelligence who has definite ideas about right and wrong, and that humans are of great worth, individually, though they are inherently flawed (i.e., fallen, sinful, corrupt, etc.) (A typical Christian world view) You will come to a very different set of solutions.

    There are, of course, other possibilities, and you may choose whichever suits your fancy.

    If you choose correctly, then the solutions which follow will be based on reality, and will be accepted by humanity, since they are consistent with the basic tendencies of mankind.

    I am sorry for appearing so theological, but we are constrained by reality, and if we attempt solutions which are contrary to reality, they will have unintended consequences. (The preceding statement presupposes that reality exists, in some general sense, independent of our perceptions.)

    For example, my brother, a veteran of Vietnam, was initially very pleased at the elimination of the draft, but now recognizes that it makes it easier for the elite to be warmongers, since their sons are exempt. Many other examples of apparently unintended consequences could be found.

    That said, my basis for solutions would be:

    While people have an intrinsic value and dignity which does not stem from their competence or goodness or accomplishments, they are inherently imperfect. All persons have a certain ruined nobility. There are traces of what they should be, but they are corrupted, broken, imperfect. This applies to you and to me and to everybody else. We know what is good and what is evil, but we don't always want to do what is good. And often, we rationalize things we know are bad, because we want to do them. A corollary of this is that we are not perfectible. We can be better, but only to a certain extent.

    In addition, we live in a world where a lot of bad things happen. While there is great beauty in the natural world, there is also a continuing life and death struggle. There is a spider hiding in the milkweed blossom, waiting to catch the honeybee. I came across a milkweed plant a couple of weeks ago, and there were three honeybee husks on the blossom and adjacent leaves, all sucked dry. Another bee was feeding on the nectar. I didn't see the spider. Perhaps it was eaten by a bird.

    One other limit we must deal with is the desire people have for control. This is a basic characteristic that people have, in varying degree to have within their power, the ability to assure that their life is not disrupted. If I recall correctly, John Calvin identified this desire of people to exercise control over other people as the core, root, essence of human wickedness.

    When I put all of this together, I conclude the world is a complicated place, and easier to make worse than to make better.

    Myself, I look at my 401k, and think, "I have enough money to retire, to live well, and never worry about being in want." This is an illusion, but it is a seductive illusion. It is the desire to have and to maintain control over our lives.

    So we look at economic systems. In particular Capitalism.

    Capitalism is built on the practice of wage-slavery. Wage slavery is much like traditional slavery, with the exceptions that the owner's rights are usually limited to the work for which the wage-slave is hired (though this is as a result of legislation, not inherent to the relationship) and that the relationship can be terminated by either party at any time.

    The benefit to the owner is that he doesn't have to concern himself with housing, feeding, and clothing his property, but he can leave them to address those things themselves.

    Most of us are wage-slaves. We want someone else to take the risks, invest the capital, and shield us from fluctuations in the economy. We are happy with our wage, though the value of what we produce is clearly greater (on average) than what we receive. My employers have made billions of dollars from the things I have developed for them. I have received a regular paycheck. That is the arrangement.

    The engine of capitalism is greed. It is like the gasoline in an engine. Just as a gasoline explosion which is not contained in a cylinder and timed to occur at the right position of the engine is dangerous and injurious, greed which is not channeled into a path which produces value is offensive and harmful. In this way, Capitalism to some extent harnesses human wickedness, and uses it to create value.

    However, the Capitalist is human, and has that unsatisfied desire for control. So there is a tendency for the capitalist to use the power he has (to hire and fire, to restrict goods, to set prices) in order to gain more control for himself.

    Because of the basic wickedness of humanity, the capitalist won't acknowledge that in taking more for himself, he is taking away control from those whom he employs. Or he will justify it to himself on the basis that he is their benefactor. This is the relationship between wage-slaves and their masters.

    Since even in the worst of us, there is that sort of ruined nobility, he may recognize to some extent, that his wage-slaves should be dealt with fairly, and from his own perspective deal somewhat fairly with them, but to rely on that is to rely on human goodness, which is unlikely to be reliable.

    This system of economics has been around, and has been working, in some sense, for at least 2000 years. But it got a real boost with the industrial revolution. Because technology made it possible to produce far more value for the same amount of labor. At first, the capitalists took all the value for themselves, and treated their wage-slaves very badly. Few things are uglier than pure capitalism, unalloyed by any human kindness.

    The situation is different now, thanks to (among other factors) the union movement, and the political structures which began to regulate the practice of wage-slavery. However, the engine of capitalism is greed, and the desire for the control which comes from acquiring more.

    Since prices are fixed by the market, and not directly under the capitalist's control, the way to acquire more is to lower costs. And of course, the cost of wage-slaves, like the cost of raw materials, transportation, facilities, etc., needs to be minimized.

    This is the inherent moral flaw of capitalism. The labor (the cost of wage-slaves) is considered to be a commodity like iron ore. It (we) has no moral significance. This is also the essential moral flaw of formal slavery. Slaves are treated as property. Their inherent dignity and worth is not acknowledged. They are alienated from their inalienable rights.

    So if we want to improve capitalism, we need to address this flaw. We need to bring men into agreement with God that individual people are of great value, though they are not very good.

    And that brings us back to theology.

    In fact, the only way to improve capitalism is to make people better.

    So preach the Gospel. Because anyone who understands the value God places on each person, and who cares about what God cares about, will treat people better than they would without this understanding. And don't hold out too much hope of success, since we are not perfectable.

    Beyond that, pursue solutions which are in keeping with the gospel. (That recognize the intrinsic value of every person, that allow people freedom of conscience, that lighten the yoke of wage-slavery).

    In addition, be kind. The people around us have difficult lives. A kind word is like a healing balm.

    Do not look for salvation from the political process. The pretenders running for office are all false messiahs.

    And finally, recognize that while our individual circumstances may be difficult compared to that of those around us, we enjoy health, personal liberty, physical security, freedom from hunger and thirst, access to legal redress and due process and other benefits (in the USA) which are completely unprecedented in the history of the world until now, and which place us in a better situation than most of the people of the world today. Yes, there is injustice and wickedness. And we may individually suffer greatly from it. But in general, we have it pretty good.. It is OK to try and make things better, but be grateful.

    Whenever I am feeling sorry for myself, I read the autobiography of Frederick Douglass. If you think you've had it bad, reading that will adjust your perspective.

    End of ramble.

    Jon

    Reply to: Getting too close to the end to apologize for solutions.   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • Job Training is important for those who have not worked--not just directly for one job or another. Soft skills, including showing up on time, work behavior and values and updating skills on computer are important for those who have been out of the workforce. Just as important is having a high school diploma or GED. These days, it is important to have these skills in addition to specific skills learned at college. For many, just having the soft skills will get them to the first job level.

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • REUTERS JULY 31, 2015

    Labor costs in the United States recorded their smallest increase in 33 years during the second quarter as workers were paid less in commissions and bonuses.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/usa-economy-idINKCN0Q51QT20150731

    Reply to: Fed Up with Stagnant Wages and Corrupt Politicians   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • while i've got these pdfs open, i'd add how 2nd quarter construction played out...first, real investment in non-residential structures fell at a 1.6% rate and subtracted 0.04 percentage points from the 2nd quarterGDP growth rate; then, real residential investment, growing at a 6.6% rate, added 0.21 percentage points to the the 2nd quarter's GDP, finally, real state and local investment rose at a 10.2% rate and accounted for 0.18 percentage points of growth, while real federal investment ex defense added 0.04 percentage points to GDP..

    so, it looks like i was close on real government investment spending for construction, while i was far short on real residential construction and completely missed real investment in non-residential structures...it wasnt a problem with my deflators; residential construction prices fell at a 1.5% rate, while non-residential construction prices fell at a 2.5% rate, so if anything the latter should be higher than what's reported in the construction report...the only thing i can think of that would have caused that much of a difference would be that if this census construction report doesn't include oil & gas rigs, which are included under investment in non-residential structures in the GDP report...rig counts were down by about 18% over the quarter, which doesnt seem to be indicated by energy construction spending here..

    Reply to: Real Construction on Track to Add 1.24 Percentage Points to 2nd Quarter GDP   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • works every time

    Reply to: Ron Paul's Rotten Apple   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • A super PAC backing Rand Paul's presidential candidacy raised $3.1 million in the first half of 2015, with two-thirds of the total coming from just two donors: George Macricostas, the chairman and CEO of a RagingWire, a data center company, and Jeff Yass, the owner of Susquehanna Partners, an investment firm.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/24/rand-pau...

    Reply to: Ron Paul's Rotten Apple   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • Reich is a phony economist. It bis easy to spot a phony. When they talk about income inequality they never talk about the #1 reason for income inequality, the Federal Reserve printing trillions for Goldman Sachs, federal government, Citi, JP, Well Fargo, and the other parasites, like Reich himself a parasite.

    Reply to: Robert Reich Comments on Jeb Bush   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • College grads lose jobs, have them offshore outsourced right and left and age discrimination is an institution. NYT simply is not "the source" more the Financial Times, or Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch etc. are better sources. NYT gets it oh so wrong and where is the study here? I don't see any.

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • From New York Times: "Gap Widening as Top Workers Reap the Raises"

    A recent survey by CareerBuilder found that 37 percent of employers were hiring college graduates for jobs that once required only a high school diploma. The great exception to this trend is for holders of degrees in the so-called STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) fields. Of course, even STEM graduates can lose out, finding that the skills they learned in school are becoming obsolete in rapidly evolving specialties like social media.

    Some blue-collar workers who lack a college degree but have specific skills are better off than college graduates who do not. Anthony P. Carnevale, a Georgetown University professor who runs the Center on Education and the Workforce, says: “If you have an associate’s degree or a certificate in a technical field like heating and ventilation, machine repair, carpentry or plumbing — you’ll do better than the average B.A. holder, both at the beginning and 10 years out of school.”

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • "In the second half of 1990s, potential growth reached about 3½ percent, but since early 2000s, it started falling."

    The same year the labor force participation rate began to decline -- the same year Bill Clinton gave PNTR to China.

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/07/guest-contribution-time-to-re-es...

    Reply to: Robert Reich Comments on Jeb Bush   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • "CNBC was on in the gym, so I was treated to a long ad from Ron Paul, who wants you to buy his video explaining the coming crisis brought on by loose money. And I found myself thinking about the remarkable fact that there really are people who will buy that video ... I’d say it’s sad, but I find it hard to feel much sympathy for the marks of this particular scam. Then again, that’s probably why they will never, ever listen to what I have to say."

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/07/the-old-man-and...

    Reply to: Ron Paul's Rotten Apple   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • From Dan Phillips : "Our time is coming, and no one will be able to say we weren’t warned".
    The ancients had "jubilee". A forgiving of debt and return to a normalcy. So it has been going on for thousands of years. The world's financial policies are treating people as disposable. Money is a resource and money is being hoarded. The solution is profit through people not negotiations. The risk involved in lending money is being ignored. Risk is involved initially in all dealings. In monetary debt when the risk is realized then it becomes incidental. The lender then takes the attitude that there was no chance of default and the debt must be paid. Initially basing actions on risk and now saying risk is not relevant. It is coming, it is inevitable. The first stand can be harsh but it needs to be mitigated.

    Reply to: The Missed Lesson of Greece’s Financial Crisis   8 years 9 months ago
  • Google a New York Times article titled: "D.N.C. Lifts Ban on Convention Fund-Raising"

    "The Democratic National Committee will lift its ban on donations from political action committees and lobbyists...highlighting the coming shift within the party as it moves from being led by an incumbent president to its next nominee...officials at the White House this week approved of two carve-outs to the ban...

    Allowing PAC and lobbyist donations to the joint fund-raising committee was something that Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign encouraged ... Mrs. Clinton has spoken openly about her frustration with the way that Jeb Bush ... raised funds for his so-called super PAC...The concern within her Brooklyn-based campaign headquarters is that she will be heavily outspent on the Republican side..."

    Reply to: Trump Pulled the Strings of Political Puppets   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • He's picking on these very corporate corrupt politicians and it has me rolling on the floor. Raise hell, good for him.

    Reply to: Trump Pulled the Strings of Political Puppets   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • So gee, Trump acknowledges single payer health care is good for business, the most efficient, effective, cheapest and says so what socialism it works to get for profit out of health and have it be a public benefit, as it should be.

    Should be interesting on these never ending ridiculous tax agendas, regressive taxes.

    I did hear one thing from conservatives which really had a point, one cannot start any program without it becoming corrupted almost immediately. That's not mentioned much with FDR and Francis Perkins, they quietly got corruption out and why their new deal programs worked. They did manage to get the money to the people instead of the deep corrupt pockets of businesses and political donors.

    Reply to: Ron Paul's Rotten Apple   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • Can't make a program that can't be spun into abusive self interest. Job training in an economy driven to improve numbers by cutting costs is simply culling under trained workers. Government provided program in anti labor climate improves profit margin, not creates jobs.

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
  • "sluggish wage growth" is because "they can". Employers import foreign workers, fire older workers because they are perceived to be more expensive, use illegal labor and offshore outsource anything not nailed down.

    The rest of this is just corporate press release copy. EP doesn't "do" corporate press release copy.

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:
  • In response to the Atlanta Fed's post (Have Changing Job and Worker Characteristics Restrained Wage Growth?) MarkThoma at CBS concludes in a new post (The mystery of sluggish wage growth) :

    "Changes in workforce composition driven by either the recession or technological change -- both of which are often suggested as reasons for the lack of wage growth -- do not appear to provide the explanation for stagnant worker incomes."

    Now I'm confused. So then, what is "the mystery of sluggish wage growth"?

    Is it one or a combination of these reasons:

     1) rehires moving into lower-paying occupations
     2) new technology eliminating middle-class jobs
     3) lack of education/skills
     4) demographics (older workers depressing wages)
     5) a decline in better-paying manufacturing jobs vs. an increase in low-paying service jobs
     6) the offshoring of all and any types of jobs
     7) an over-saturated labor force (immigration and work visas)
     8) increased productivity (aka profits) are not equally going to workers, but to corporate executives
     9) some of the above (and if so, which ones?)
    10) none of the above
    11) all of the above
    12) other reasons not mentioned above (meaning, it's still a mystery)

    Reply to: Job Training isn't a Silver Bullet for Job Creation   8 years 9 months ago
    EPer:

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