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Ignoring the Big Picture/Disturbing Trend in Graphs
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BREAKING: Wall Street Mega-Merger!!!
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US oil supplies at a 36½ year low, SPR at a 39 year low; oil+products supplies at an 18½ year low
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New York Post Claims Census Falsifies Unemployment Figures
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A Brief History of Securitization
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The war on the middle class
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Ignoring the Big Picture/Disturbing Trend in Graphs
- 30647 reads
BREAKING: Wall Street Mega-Merger!!!
- 23116 reads
US oil supplies at a 36½ year low, SPR at a 39 year low; oil+products supplies at an 18½ year low
- 183368 reads
New York Post Claims Census Falsifies Unemployment Figures
- 949423 reads
A Brief History of Securitization
- 67669 reads
The war on the middle class
- 314927 reads
The Golden Rule
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Will the NY Attorney General Bring Doomsday Charges Against Wall Street? If So, How Long Will He Survive?
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New York Post Claims Census Falsifies Unemployment Figures
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How Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population Growth?
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VAT or Value Added Tax is Getting a Look in D.C.
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U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression
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The war on the middle class
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House discusses 401k/IRA confiscation
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Tax Cuts for the Rich Do Not Generate Jobs
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agree on the crane brinton. found a copy of 'Anatomy of a Revolution' at a used bookstore and couldnt put it down. maybe as opposed to violence a form of passive resistance that hits the powers that be where it hurts would be more effective
see this.
http://madbuilder.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/at-a-loss/
It's down over $100 in a day, but I think when Q2 GDP revisions happen on Friday plus, all week Bernanke's Jackson hole speech is being "previewed" and I believe they will be sorely disappointed on QE3, not only were the result questionable, but this time, core inflation is just a little too high, so I don't think they are going to do it.
Add some more bad news from Greece, Europe, and I'll bet Gold stops it's ugly fall for now.
Although finding out the rules is nebulous, although I am not an expert in setting up JVs and other businesses in China! Seems they condition a JV requirement on whether they want to capture that particular sector or not!
Worse, China is demanding indigenous innovation, i.e. they are claiming they will only recognize intellectual property natively sourced. uh huh.
No kidding China is smart as hell and that's why they are going to be #1 in a matter of little over a decade.
Gez, with the way the U.S. plays it's hands, I really want in on that poker game!
You might enjoy this lecture, titled Why the World Isn't Flat by Economist Ha-Joon Chang. This talk is awesome because he's screamingly funny yet goes into great depth on the history of trade....
it blows apart this entire B.S. of "free" trade through history and also what China is doing right now.
Ha-Joon Chang Lecture (link).
I though China required all foreign companies operating in China to establish joint ventures? Imagine if the US govt demanded such a policy.
I guess I've been reading too much of de Toqueville and Theory of Mass Society literature (an occupational hazard of old age). Then I look at secret 1.2 Trillion loans by "civil servants" at the Fed, plus a president I voted for waging a war for which he did not have funds appropriated under the guise of an organization that was created to stop the Soviet Union's expansion into Europe back in the 1940s. People point to the Constitutional authority of Congress, the anti-deficiency act, and the war powers act, and the Administration stares back and asks "Whatcha gonna do about it? We got our appropriation and we will reprogram funds now (even if the law says we can't) and you will have no choice but to make us whole later." Not even the Tea Party has the stomach to say "impeachment" -- that might upset the markets and bring on a recession worse than the one we are now skating above. A private, for-profit corporation that can't do math is caled an "agency" and nobody goes to jail for massive corporate fraud in the mortgage mess. Instead, the financial elite Fed and Treasury arrange a no-fault solution and the middle class crumbles while the banksters pretend that those delinquent mortgages are worth 100 cents on the dollar plus interest and fees. Who are we to demand accountability when the UN is now telling heads of state to step down in the interest of a larger, cleaner world order in which he likes of DSK dictate the terms of our daily lives? NAFTA? WTO? Megastate? You ain't seen nothin yet.
Thank you, Bakunin, for positive contribution. I am referring to your suggestion on this specific stats analysis problem, but I also agree with your negative view about outsourcing trend, which is covered in some detail (but not with graphs and all) in a recent highly relevant comment by Robert Oak. (I'll see if I can find a link to that.)
Politically, our discussion here relates to a big 'conservative' claim (or 'con') that jobs are created by small businesses, especially start-ups, so 'supply-side' has to work. I agree that jobs are best created and are often created by start-ups, sparking a recovery when necessary preconditions are met. There is a supply-side to it. But the claim of the Money Party that they represent small business people and that somehow global finance capitalism will provide the necessary supply-side and make start-up capital available to working people looking to organize small businesses ... that's a con. Of course, the neo-con claim is much simpler -- that it's just the rich who create jobs, and that's the whole of it. Give the rich all the money and everything will take care of itself. And the rich, we see, have recently created jobs in China and other 'emerging markets'.
Having said the above, I don't really see a clear time lag effect in the BED graphs showing both employment per firm and new firm births.
However, I'm sure the outsourcing of production and of related services is a part of what John Robertson calls (title of his blog) "The new firm employment puzzle". We have identified three factors now: (1) technology effect, (2) productivity effect (fewer people working harder with longer hours), and now, (3) outsourcing effect.
Because new firm numbers (quarterly or annual) show business births, we would expect a lag showing increased employees per firm. There could be a cancelation effect. Many small businesses are created to fill an identified niche without any great plan for growth, that is, working people may be buying jobs in a time of slow economic growth rather than looking to build empires in a time of rapid growth. It would also be interesting to look at businesses formed by immigrants in regard to the outsourcing trend, as well as extent to which increased employment in immigrant-founded new firms is of immigrants (only marginally contributing to full employment, if at all).
To research the outsourcing effect, we would need to break out new firms in the business of new products, especially new technology products, and then actually look a random sample of those firms over a period to be determined by initial qualitative research, maybe 2 or 3 years, maybe less.
Anyway, the problem for our post facto analysis is that we seem to have a huge outsourcing trend in all firms and John Robertson hasn't given us charts or graphs breaking out newer firms from older established firms, although he has shown down trend for all firms in three graphs -- so we could try to derive some numbers from that with the new firm data but how meaningful would that be?
Bakunin ... and don't forget America's own Voltairine de Cleyre
________
Here's the link to the relevant comment by Robert Oak and a quote from it --
Of course, spin is never rational, what with the media hype of "July durable goods" -- hardly sufficient to signal a recovery in the midst of so much other bad economic news.
According to TheStreet.com --
The irrational bubble aspect of the gold market was clear, gold had to fall, stocks had to rise, but it's happening much faster than I thought. This probably has much more to do with the Libyan situation than with the durable goods report. Fall of Qaddafi is lowering the uncertainty level by increasing confidence in the U.S. government, Obama administration, NATO and the EU.
On the USA side, there's also the all-time-high in disapproval rating for Congress. Many congress critturs were afraid to hold any August Town Hall meetings. Instead -- realizing they had had a good run -- they realized that for congress critturs and friends to hang on to their gold required more courage than they are accustomed to using. So the cash-out has begun.
My predictions were good as an overall framework for the dynamics, but my timing was off -- I thought in terms of things changing slowly, as befits the thinking of an old man. Markets are moving much faster than I thought they would.
I thought gold would start to get rational after the President signs the Super Congress legislation in a month or two. It now looks like all that markets will need is enactment of the three FTAs, and markets are busy discounting (anticipating) that already.
Since I am advocating defeat of the FTAs -- or Obama simply NOT sending the FTAs (all negotiated during the Bush administration) to Congress. If any wonderful surprise like that should occur, of course, gold will zoom up again.
There's probably some play left in gold as it continues down overall. The year still could end with gold at or near $2000, depending on unforeseeable events. Meanwhile, talk will be about fundamentals -- gold production, gold reclamation, industrial applications, jewelry demand.
I thought the Gold-King-rides-high period had enough momentum to carry it another month or so. I thought the goldbugs had enough guts to make that happen. I should have realized that the basic motivation of goldbugs is greed, and courage has nothing to do with it. Fear? Yes. Courage? No.
We appear to be already in the period of people cashing out to buy into equity shares while there's still juicy bottom-feeding available there. The other thing is, once the cash-out begins, greed works differently because you now have to think about the possibility that you can sell gold now and buy it back later, ending up with maybe 150% of what you sold. So, even from the point of view of a gold hoarder, selling is the thing to do, once the cash-out has begun.
The herd is on the move, to settle down once they run out of energy and find some decent grazing.
There is an easy answer which would quickly solve the American Economic Depression of 2010 with no downside RISK.
No hits to the unemployed American taxpayers.
No stock market crashes.
No foreign diplomatic issues.
No bailouts from the federal government vaults.
No bank runs.
No riots.
No bureaucracies.
See LINK to Information Technology Business Edge Magazine.
HOPE for solution of our national economic problem is in the READER’S COMMENT which follows. . .
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/cm/blogs/all/no-easy-answers-on-offshoring...
This blog has done a good job in bringing out the implications China economics has for the American worker and economy in general. However, it fails in the political analysis. The problem cannot be laid at Obama's feet. This not something that just started in the past two years. Moreover, all economic relations with China are 'governed' by treaty and law. Which makes the congress the ultimate arbitrator of China relations. They past the laws and approve treaties. And, all members of congress are elected by a majority of some group of citizens.
In short, the American people have the congress and President they want and, by the force of logic, the laws, treaties and, more generally, the economy they voted for. As long as we spend magnitudes more time watching, reading about and analyzing sporting events than what OUR elected officials are doing, we will suffer the conseques of our follies.
If Americans want know what their problem is, they need only look in the mirror!
people are speaking out all over the place and everyone should write your representatives too. It's obscene, just another demand from MNCs and that S. Korean one is going to be a disaster for U.S. auto workers.
Panama is beyond belief, there's nothing in it except a "judgment proof" tax haven de facto (I wrote about this recently).
Elected officials could care less what the entire nation thinks of them, that's clear and they use cable noise to deflect what the real issues are.
Not wanting these passed goes across the political spectrum. Huge majority.
Congress has gone into August recess, without enacting the three FTAs, despite earlier promise by Speaker Boehner of no recess until FTAs are passed and even though there has been an 'agreement to agree' in the Senate since August 4. (The three bills pending are the Korea, Colombia and Panama FTAs.
That's the good news, as good as it gets these days.
The bad news is that, under the guise of "a shot at passing jobs-creating bills"
Congress will get right back on it after Labor Day, with Boehner continuing his pressure on Obama to push for the FTAs!
COULD THIS FTA HANKY-PANKY BY THE MONEY PARTY POSSIBLY BE CONNECTED TO ANOTHER AUGUST POLITICAL NON-EVENT?
Although Peter DeFazio (widely known as an opponent of fast-track FTAs) is out there working his town meetings in southern Oregon .... according to survey by nonpartisan No Labels organization, 60% of members of Congress are NOT holding August town halls this year. "Members of both parties share the blame with about 67% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans stating that they had no town hall meetings scheduled for the recess period."
CBS News (Stephanie Condon, 23 August 2011), reporting the No Labels survey, also cites CBS News/New York Times poll earlier this month showing all-time high of 82% disapproval of Congress, with just 14% approval. See, CBS News story on poll, 4 August 2011
Could somebody please connect the dots for me? I mean, it's so hard to see
What? A connection between a big push to enact FTAs and congress critturs deciding NOT to hold Town Hall meetings with constituents this August?
Connect the dots, anyone?
FTAs pending ........................................................ NO Town Hall meetings
I don't know if anyone saw this and not enough for me to write up an Instapopulist for I don't know the implications, but S&P Pres. to step down.
Free full text at Internet Archive of Brinton's A History of Western Morals
Also, brief Wikipedia article, Crane_Brinton
EP in general is awesome!
Thanks for all of it. EP as a news source is worth a lot.
If you click on your user name and go to "content created", there is a workspace of everything. here is you.
Maybe I need to create another space for people to start threads and so on for discussion.
The problem is EP is now a news source, cited and as a result articles must be professionally cited as well as formatting has become critical.
I'll have to think about how to set this up so EP remains a news source, but people can also contribute, write and don't have to worry so much about formatting and professional Journalistic standards.
Dr Crane Brinton's method layed out the warning signs.
I borrowed his analysis and applied it to America in 2008 and came up with the warning signs: economic crisis, treason of the intellectuals (netroots, bloggers), military misadventures, social class stratification, incompetence of the ruling classes,
and most important, popular distrust of the doomed regime.
When did the waring sign events occur and re-occur?
The 4 major revolutions of the last 4 hundred years:
Britain, US, France and Russia. It is important that
Roubini is figuring this out as well.
The Arab Spring is an easy one using "Anatomy of Revolution". If you apply it the First World, they will laugh at you, or claim your method is old. I respond that History is History and Brinton is a world class Historian.
Look closely at the BED graphs and you will observe a noticeable lag between the down graphs of business starts and employment. This is because the 'Automate, Emigrate, or Evaporate' 80's mantra from the Economic Suicide Lobby convinced every one to try to move offshore in all cases, then automate the remaining processes, then move the shreds of the business, like IT, Marketing and Management in a second wave offshore.
Best example is 3Com (HuaWei).
Start ups will create new business models and processes which will be moved offshore. So we now have a big trade deficit in technology hardware mostly filled in by software. Software too is being rapidly outsouced, offshored and replaced by Visa Workers domestically.
Basically, there is no bottom, or limit to the destructive tendencies in this model of capitalism until you reach the status of the 3rd World.
How close are we to 3rd World Status? Canada is discretely telling U.S. Visa applicants that they are not welcome now for applications for citizenship, even
applicants with lots of assets and non-work income.
Yes, that's what Robertson speculates too, when looking at the "establishment size trend" --
There may be more to it than technology though. Maybe it's also part of the overall "fewer workers = greater productivity-per-worker trend."
I have eyeballed the average, approximately, from the graph, going from 6 to 4. But it would be helpful to know median and mode, to begin to investigate under the surface of this trend. Mainly, I'd want to see data by industry -- construction, fishing, auto repair shops, retail, farm labor contractors -- but it would require more time and resources than I have to research the numbers for validity and reliability. You'd have to start with qualitative research, lots of case studies.
I like the "new technologies and processes" explanation along with increased productivity-per-worker trend -- work more hours, harder, because that's what it takes to survive. That correlates with my observations in the real world (what Animist Drive-by calls "meatlife").
Yeah, hard to count. Sometimes 2 on a payroll suffice for 10 actually working. But that's probably not true for North Dakota, for example.
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