We tried to come up with methods for determining what impact our radio propaganda was having on "denied areas" (like USSR), we floated the idea of broadcasting soccer matches late into the night to see if absenteeism at factories might result. We didn't stop to consider the impact of West German late night porn. Now that we are being innundated with trash TV in the US, it could have a positive result -- I read more. Maybe book publishing will have a renaissance.
A few years back that was the deal. If 'grandpa' had a chance to visit with the pre-teen kids (the girls), that meant carefully following daily trivia in the lives of ... I guess ... the role models of a generation?
I am forced to watch Perez Hilton from time to time. I can take her in small doses only. There is the sense of watching the French of 1781 to 1789 when I listen to her, like the characters played by Glen Close, John Malkevitch in Desperate Liaisons.
. Andre Carnegie once said "Riches to Rags in 3 Generations". Perez Hilton comes immediately to mind.
You may well be right. The question is within what time frame? I think if gold goes higher to $2100 this month, then the DOW will go lower this month. If gold goes higher to over $2000 later this year and appears to settle in, say at $2100, the DOW might stay steady even in a relatively slow economy. Blue Chips as MNCs and as real capital investment should be a hedge against $$$ inflation just as gold should be, but nothing in the financial world makes much sense these days. (Oh, I know, it can all be rationalized!)
They raised margins I believe on Internet stocks at one point in the dot con bubble, it implies something is a bubble, or is being targeted as a bubble.
That would explain the drop, but gold bugs know no bounds and I don't have any news the Europe bond threat is over or addressed. Lots of band-aids, which I've put up in Instapopulists.
CME raised Gold margins by 22% (End of day, August 11, 2011)
Following the heavy trading and high speculation around the precious metals, mainly gold, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), the world's largest future market, decided to raise the margins needed to trade gold by 22% yesterday (August 11). Investors will need to put $7,425 to open a position on gold and maintain at least $5,500 to keep the position overnight. The rules came into effect at the end of Thursday's trading, August 11th. This decision is likely to be one of the prime reasons for the recent sudden shift in gold that caused a cool down in the heavy gold trading in recent days. Don't be surprised if there will be additional margin hikes in the near future, if the gold market will continue this borderline hysteria.
What is the bounce, the roller coaster, all about? What does it do? On the downswing, it squeezes out small players hoping to leverage buys on margin, that's what it does. On the upswing, it cleans out short players. If your computer is smart enough, or if you don't care about anything but trading volume, you make a very good living all the way up and all the way down and all the way back up again, and so on.
For many, it isn't so much that they want to hold gold as it is that they want to take advantage of margin to leverage the next uptick in gold that they consider to be 99.9999999% certain. Why not? .... well .... because an overall trend doesn't make a monotonic graph .... and if or when volatility hits gold again, your calculations about your margin play become very different .... no more 99.9999999% certainty.
This doesn't mean that gold will EOY be above or below $1800 or $2000 (whatever your projected 'goal' may be), it just means that gold fever may be breaking. It's difficult to evaluate, however, because it's become a religious issue. Gold is a matter of religion. There's no other way to explain Ron Paul blandly indicating that the goal for gold is $5000 or $10,000. Such statements, although probably true over a long enough time period, are religious rather than rational in nature. Do we have any doubt that when markets open on Judgment Day, gold will be quoted at exactly $666K per troy ounce?
Suppose you have $$$$. You can buy gold at current prices on margin with "expectation" of net 10% gain by EOY (if you are solid on calls and/or certain there will be no fluctuation). On the other hand, you may also be able to buy equity shares paying 100% at or near a low with "expectation" of net gain by EOY of 10%, possibly more than 10%. However, what you are really thinking is about people who bought AT&T in 1933. Or you are thinking as an investor about an earnings stream over the next few years and behond. (What? Investors? Aren't there just players anymore?)
For true believers, there is no comparison between these two alternatives, no basis for rational comparisons. To buy gold and hold gold is the whole of financial wisdom. No more tough thinking required. You know the one and only way to $$$alvation. Others continue to hold deversified portfolios, 401Ks, IRAs, and so on, but you see all of those as toxic assets.
Of course, everyone is bullish long-term on gold and no one feels safe without it. That's not the same thing as the current gold fever. For those who are not true believers in the Gold Cult, the chance to leverage plays thanks to margin offered by precious metals dealers is the primary attraction when considering buying gold.
A major cause of volatility in equity markets, IMO, has been the margin available in precious metals markets, causing investors to prefer gambling in gold over investments in commerce, because of the appearance of both zero risk and certainty of profits in gold. The player mentality takes over and "long-term" comes to mean today and tommorrow up until the last hour. Anathema to the Gold Cult is the idea that slowly a trend settles in as investors identify attractive long-term equity buys as realization retiurns that gold, as such, returns no earnings whatsoever, and is really just another commodity (no more sacred than, say, aluminum or petroeum).
Of course, there are also the hard-bit cynics who aren't taken in by the Gold Cult but are convined (a) that resources generally are running short as population continues to increase, and, (b) that there will be no earnings at all for many, many years to come ... like until Ron Paul occupies the White House in the midst of hyperinflationary collapse of the economy.
IMO, the Internal Revenue Code should simply tax profits made from plays on margin in precious metals as what they are -- profits from gambling.
China is a mercantilist's dream. China uses the Chilean Chicago School Frankenstein as a model. This is a world without a Welfare State after the Mao's Iron Rice Bowl was abandonded by Den Xiao Bing. So a 5 year Plan is something very real in a totalitarian state run by engineers in the same Party. The question is how long this can go on. At some point, you literally run out of fresh potable water and somewhat breathable air.
Adam Smith claimed that all true mercantile states are doomed. Mercantile states will pile up trade surpluses in gold or foreign currencies, create domestic malinvestment ,inflation, and eventually crash. So far, he has not been wrong since 1777.
I cannot think of any metric which shows America is becoming more and more uneducated, have less social values, than the media stream.
You got it. A gossip blog gets millions more hits than the Wall Street Journal as an example.
One of the reasons HuffPo gets hits....they carry celebrity gossip.
The biggest watched shows are often the most stupidity, while highly crafted and acted dramas go to the low viewers trash can.
Part of this is advertisers fault. With the invention of the DVR, the ability to skip commercials they now sell airtime where the majority of the slices are ads. Anyone with a brain is driven away from Media which does this. It's mind numbing.
Still, online to online, Perez Hilton, TMZ and sites like that pull in 10x the traffic than serious news sites do.
Sad state of affairs, people do not know what secretary of state means but sure know all about the crotch shot of Paris Hilton et. al.
Perhaps the short selling ban impending move had much more to do with today's stock market pop up than erroneous claims that a little tick down in initial unemployment claims caused a 423 point Dow increase.
... the ban on some banks can be easily circumvented through options puts and calls ...
One must question can this all be on rumor, or more, due to the bans, is something really stinky going to happen with European banks?
... many are worried a bank default, just like Lehman Brothers, will be a contagion derivatives mess.
Of course, it could all be on rumor! As in the classic Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay. Maybe it has to do with rioting in North London. Who knows? MSM coverage of financial markets is a stinky joke. IMO, it's got to do with the gold market, but who knows how much of any up or down in the Dow is due to this, that or the other report or localized attempt at regulation of global capital?
Bottom line is that about the only effective regulation of global capital that can be cited today is China's currency management. I am not convinced that seeking to impose controls on that is possible or in our best interests in the long run.
First, we need to clear a path to reform of the monetary and financial systems in our own country, which (IMHO) will require some minimal protectionist trade barriers (including barriers to unimpeded flow of labor).
"Why anyone would get so excited [about UI claims report] is beyond me ... Even worse, the press completely ignored the trade deficit ... Since when is GDP < 1% a reason to cheer and rock the stock market DOW 500 points?" -- Robert Oak
The "press" is mostly a gang of lumpenproletariat idiots. IMHO, the real news is that gold fever appears to be breaking, for now.
I've been reading it over. Especially the 2002 PDF. Not based on phone numbers, it's based on residential units, although of course more than 90% of the survey in most of the follow-up months (on average) is done by phone after initial visit. Nothing wrong with that.
Probably difficult to keep up with people moving as a result of foreclosures and all, also there are people (citizens) living in officially non-residential living units as well as people squatting, and then there are the outright homeless camping out, including families with children, but what can a survey do? The methodology has to be consistent from year to year.
Increasing social instability, including illegal immigration, presents substantial problems for the Census too, but I know that they try very hard to count everyone (including illegals).
It's state-based (with two extra states for LA and NYC).
I think it's as solid as it gets.
The 18% number looks very good as the current reality-based statistic that most people are probably looking for. There's certainly almost no upward pressure on wages.
Excellent research and analysis by Robert Oak, as usual.
the transition of workers to the middle class. That social mobility was the wonderful thing about America -- the GI Bill was a major engine, as was the National Defense Education Act. But I was using the term lumpenproletariat in the sense of a powerless class who had to "take it or leave it" in the labor market. They are too marginalized to find the avenues of mobility, and resentment is natural. "Working class authoritarianism" has been well documented. But the people I feel most keenly for are those who are long-term unemployed who want to work. Squeezed out of the middle class and maybe out of the labor force.
This is a link to an article on Prof. Yamaguchi's briefing (July 26, 2011) to such congress critturs as could lend an ear --
HuffPo on July 26 briefing
Sorry that's HuffingtonPost, but let's give the Devil her due! HuffPo is promising both the video and the transcript of the briefing to come!
And, one thing about HuffPo -- there are a lot of readers there!
What, our problems are solvable? Somebody call your congress critturs! And the White House! And your local news room!
"but the reality is the index is only slightly lower than November 2008"
OHHHHH!!!! WOWZERS!!! That totally makes me feel so much better about the economy. Good job Kronkite!
We tried to come up with methods for determining what impact our radio propaganda was having on "denied areas" (like USSR), we floated the idea of broadcasting soccer matches late into the night to see if absenteeism at factories might result. We didn't stop to consider the impact of West German late night porn. Now that we are being innundated with trash TV in the US, it could have a positive result -- I read more. Maybe book publishing will have a renaissance.
A few years back that was the deal. If 'grandpa' had a chance to visit with the pre-teen kids (the girls), that meant carefully following daily trivia in the lives of ... I guess ... the role models of a generation?
I am forced to watch Perez Hilton from time to time. I can take her in small doses only. There is the sense of watching the French of 1781 to 1789 when I listen to her, like the characters played by Glen Close, John Malkevitch in Desperate Liaisons.
. Andre Carnegie once said "Riches to Rags in 3 Generations". Perez Hilton comes immediately to mind.
You may well be right. The question is within what time frame? I think if gold goes higher to $2100 this month, then the DOW will go lower this month. If gold goes higher to over $2000 later this year and appears to settle in, say at $2100, the DOW might stay steady even in a relatively slow economy. Blue Chips as MNCs and as real capital investment should be a hedge against $$$ inflation just as gold should be, but nothing in the financial world makes much sense these days. (Oh, I know, it can all be rationalized!)
They raised margins I believe on Internet stocks at one point in the dot con bubble, it implies something is a bubble, or is being targeted as a bubble.
That would explain the drop, but gold bugs know no bounds and I don't have any news the Europe bond threat is over or addressed. Lots of band-aids, which I've put up in Instapopulists.
Business Insider, 12 August 2011 (Lior Cohen, Trading Nrg)
What is the bounce, the roller coaster, all about? What does it do? On the downswing, it squeezes out small players hoping to leverage buys on margin, that's what it does. On the upswing, it cleans out short players. If your computer is smart enough, or if you don't care about anything but trading volume, you make a very good living all the way up and all the way down and all the way back up again, and so on.
For many, it isn't so much that they want to hold gold as it is that they want to take advantage of margin to leverage the next uptick in gold that they consider to be 99.9999999% certain. Why not? .... well .... because an overall trend doesn't make a monotonic graph .... and if or when volatility hits gold again, your calculations about your margin play become very different .... no more 99.9999999% certainty.
This doesn't mean that gold will EOY be above or below $1800 or $2000 (whatever your projected 'goal' may be), it just means that gold fever may be breaking. It's difficult to evaluate, however, because it's become a religious issue. Gold is a matter of religion. There's no other way to explain Ron Paul blandly indicating that the goal for gold is $5000 or $10,000. Such statements, although probably true over a long enough time period, are religious rather than rational in nature. Do we have any doubt that when markets open on Judgment Day, gold will be quoted at exactly $666K per troy ounce?
Suppose you have $$$$. You can buy gold at current prices on margin with "expectation" of net 10% gain by EOY (if you are solid on calls and/or certain there will be no fluctuation). On the other hand, you may also be able to buy equity shares paying 100% at or near a low with "expectation" of net gain by EOY of 10%, possibly more than 10%. However, what you are really thinking is about people who bought AT&T in 1933. Or you are thinking as an investor about an earnings stream over the next few years and behond. (What? Investors? Aren't there just players anymore?)
For true believers, there is no comparison between these two alternatives, no basis for rational comparisons. To buy gold and hold gold is the whole of financial wisdom. No more tough thinking required. You know the one and only way to $$$alvation. Others continue to hold deversified portfolios, 401Ks, IRAs, and so on, but you see all of those as toxic assets.
Of course, everyone is bullish long-term on gold and no one feels safe without it. That's not the same thing as the current gold fever. For those who are not true believers in the Gold Cult, the chance to leverage plays thanks to margin offered by precious metals dealers is the primary attraction when considering buying gold.
A major cause of volatility in equity markets, IMO, has been the margin available in precious metals markets, causing investors to prefer gambling in gold over investments in commerce, because of the appearance of both zero risk and certainty of profits in gold. The player mentality takes over and "long-term" comes to mean today and tommorrow up until the last hour. Anathema to the Gold Cult is the idea that slowly a trend settles in as investors identify attractive long-term equity buys as realization retiurns that gold, as such, returns no earnings whatsoever, and is really just another commodity (no more sacred than, say, aluminum or petroeum).
Of course, there are also the hard-bit cynics who aren't taken in by the Gold Cult but are convined (a) that resources generally are running short as population continues to increase, and, (b) that there will be no earnings at all for many, many years to come ... like until Ron Paul occupies the White House in the midst of hyperinflationary collapse of the economy.
IMO, the Internal Revenue Code should simply tax profits made from plays on margin in precious metals as what they are -- profits from gambling.
Just my 2¢.
China is a mercantilist's dream. China uses the Chilean Chicago School Frankenstein as a model. This is a world without a Welfare State after the Mao's Iron Rice Bowl was abandonded by Den Xiao Bing. So a 5 year Plan is something very real in a totalitarian state run by engineers in the same Party. The question is how long this can go on. At some point, you literally run out of fresh potable water and somewhat breathable air.
Adam Smith claimed that all true mercantile states are doomed. Mercantile states will pile up trade surpluses in gold or foreign currencies, create domestic malinvestment ,inflation, and eventually crash. So far, he has not been wrong since 1777.
I cannot think of any metric which shows America is becoming more and more uneducated, have less social values, than the media stream.
You got it. A gossip blog gets millions more hits than the Wall Street Journal as an example.
One of the reasons HuffPo gets hits....they carry celebrity gossip.
The biggest watched shows are often the most stupidity, while highly crafted and acted dramas go to the low viewers trash can.
Part of this is advertisers fault. With the invention of the DVR, the ability to skip commercials they now sell airtime where the majority of the slices are ads. Anyone with a brain is driven away from Media which does this. It's mind numbing.
Still, online to online, Perez Hilton, TMZ and sites like that pull in 10x the traffic than serious news sites do.
Sad state of affairs, people do not know what secretary of state means but sure know all about the crotch shot of Paris Hilton et. al.
... that's more important. It's a matter of priorities.
>Why doesn't the media mention that?
Maybe because they are the Liberal media as we've been told for years.
Oh no, wait! That doesn't make sense.
From Robert Oak blog:
Of course, it could all be on rumor! As in the classic Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay. Maybe it has to do with rioting in North London. Who knows? MSM coverage of financial markets is a stinky joke. IMO, it's got to do with the gold market, but who knows how much of any up or down in the Dow is due to this, that or the other report or localized attempt at regulation of global capital?
Bottom line is that about the only effective regulation of global capital that can be cited today is China's currency management. I am not convinced that seeking to impose controls on that is possible or in our best interests in the long run.
First, we need to clear a path to reform of the monetary and financial systems in our own country, which (IMHO) will require some minimal protectionist trade barriers (including barriers to unimpeded flow of labor).
Just my 2¢ worth.
Last gold high projection I saw was $2100/oz. I think it will go higher, despite the records.
"Why anyone would get so excited [about UI claims report] is beyond me ... Even worse, the press completely ignored the trade deficit ... Since when is GDP < 1% a reason to cheer and rock the stock market DOW 500 points?" -- Robert Oak
The "press" is mostly a gang of lumpenproletariat idiots. IMHO, the real news is that gold fever appears to be breaking, for now.
It's a great investor-oriented blog, especially as providing a window to how it looks from Europe.
Of course, I agree about 99% with the socio-economic and philosophical ideas presented there occasionally.
I've been reading it over. Especially the 2002 PDF. Not based on phone numbers, it's based on residential units, although of course more than 90% of the survey in most of the follow-up months (on average) is done by phone after initial visit. Nothing wrong with that.
Probably difficult to keep up with people moving as a result of foreclosures and all, also there are people (citizens) living in officially non-residential living units as well as people squatting, and then there are the outright homeless camping out, including families with children, but what can a survey do? The methodology has to be consistent from year to year.
Increasing social instability, including illegal immigration, presents substantial problems for the Census too, but I know that they try very hard to count everyone (including illegals).
It's state-based (with two extra states for LA and NYC).
I think it's as solid as it gets.
The 18% number looks very good as the current reality-based statistic that most people are probably looking for. There's certainly almost no upward pressure on wages.
Excellent research and analysis by Robert Oak, as usual.
see:
The Great Flaw in the Free Trade Theory ...
First it's an in person visit and then people mail back questionaires.
You can read all of the details here, CPS survey methodology.
the transition of workers to the middle class. That social mobility was the wonderful thing about America -- the GI Bill was a major engine, as was the National Defense Education Act. But I was using the term lumpenproletariat in the sense of a powerless class who had to "take it or leave it" in the labor market. They are too marginalized to find the avenues of mobility, and resentment is natural. "Working class authoritarianism" has been well documented. But the people I feel most keenly for are those who are long-term unemployed who want to work. Squeezed out of the middle class and maybe out of the labor force.
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