the revised August sales of $444.1 billion were originally reported at $444.4 billion, and July's sales were revised down from $441.8 billion to $441.5 billion..
although the overall 0.6% increase in August retail sales went essentially unrevised, there were revisions in sales for some of the component business types worth noting...the table of component changes from last month's advance release is here; the middle two columns in the table here show the revised data...we'd first note that August sales at auto dealers, the largest component of retail sales, were revised from the originally reporting 1.5% increase to an increase of 2.0%, although the entire automotive sales increase was a bit less at 1.9%...clothing store sales wee also revised higher, from the originally reported 0.3% rise to an increase of 0.8%, and sales at general merchandise stores, which were originally reported as down 0.1%, have been revised to show a 0.3% increase...on the other hand, sales at building materials and garden supply stores, which were originally reported as up 1.4% in August, have now been revised to an increase of just 0.5%...similarly, sales at miscellaneous store retailers, which were first reported as 2.5% higher in August, have been revised down to a 1.5% increase...other notable downward revisions include furniture store sales, reported as a 0.7% increase in the advance report, are now revised to a 0.3% rise; specialty store sales, as sporting goods, book and music stores, were also revised down 0.4%, from an increase of 0.9% to an increase of 0.4%, while the decrease in gasoline station sales is now shown at 1.1%, rather than the 0.8% decrease shown in the advance report, and the increase in drug stores sales was marked down from 0.6% to 0.3%...
like the table right at the end of the post shows, there's still 1,143,222 homeowners who are more than 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure (with an amazing average of 493 days behind on paying)..so there's still a lot of homeowners that are still in serious trouble, even though they have yet to be foreclosed on..
This clueless government that sheds millions wastefully and cannot balance its OWN budget is going to bully business owners that HAVE TO balance their budgets? Business owners have to be accountable. Big government does not. They should clean up their own houses before taking more small businesses out of profitability. As if the maddening stack of regulations a business has to face isn't enough of an incentive to close their doors.
The robotics are coming and so is more efficiency. Are you going to unionize the robots?
"If we purchase a ton of steel rails from England for twenty dollars, then we have the rails and England the money. But if we buy a ton of steel rails from an American for twenty-five dollars, then America has the rails and the money both." -- Abraham Lincoln
We throw cows at you you silly English! Oh those French, maybe a wooden rabbit taken into their castle will work. (Monty Python and the Holy Grail).
It is absurd they go out about "Oh those socialists", when France has a way higher quality of life than here, job security, health care, never mind awesome food.
The foreclosure rates are still high and one would think they would drop to bubble years. Good God, you would think they would have run out of people to foreclose on by now.
Periodically I number crunch the age brackets for labor participation rate and prove that it is not "aging demographics", although part of it is.
I have to redo this because things change over time. 2008-2010 was not age and either was 2011-2013, but age became more of a factor. Aging baby boomers.
So, unless I see accurate data analysis by age, I blow off these "opinion" pieces.
Labor flows mean people move from different subsets of employed, unemployed, not in labor force and flows of course would not add up on overall population additions of birth/death/immigration.
There are 'missing people' but this isn't right I believe EPI did a recent new estimate. 6.3 million!
Their analysis is here and they are worth following on how they calculate and arrive at missing 6,320,000 workers.
Sept 92,584 Not in labor force
Aug 92,269 Not in labor force
315,000 more "not in labor force"
232 jobs created from month before
+315 not in labor force from month before
=547,000 ("The over 16 population increases about 200,000 to 220,000 each month)
-220,000 (* 220,000 babies born = 220,000 high school grads looking for work or going to college)
=327,000 (* So who are these people, what are they doing, and where did they go?)
Alhough I can understand your hostility and scepticism to many of these treatments - in regards to VNS therapy it is undeniable that it is a successful treatment for epilepsy. You present potential dangers of these devices (obviously they are in their infancy) but many medications are equally as clouded in mystery - with little to know knowledge of how they work, and what the short and long term effects are.
You are absolutely right about employers not even opening the door to people. This is the unspoken game that employers play with statistics. Companies all over America have record numbers of open reqs (aka job positions) but will not authorize budgets to allow for hiring. Many times these open reqs are in place to facilitate hiring from within (Admin Assistant wants to go into IT, etc) or are necessary steps to allow a consultant to be converted to employee, or are simply a statistical trick to boost the number of open jobs while collecting resumes from people they have no intention of hiring so they have "qualified" individuals in their contacts list for when spots must be filled to deal with attrition or layoffs of higher paid long term staff. Now to the advice... work for yourself with whatever you can do and whatever fits into your life. Take advantage of Obamacare however you can in your state to deal with the Benefits problem first. Reach out to local organizations for advice in how to deal with the basic need to knows to be a business person (what minimal insurance is really needed, how to do cheap advertising, etc). Ask the leaders of these local organizations (Knights of Columbus, Elks, Lions, Chamber of Commerce, etc) for recommendations for mentoring help. Reach out to local charitable groups to see what programs you may be entitled to that can offset the basic needs while you get things off the ground (food banks, housing assistance, free daycare, etc). Then provide a local service that is needed. Get a second hand set of lawn equip and do local landscaping, power wash houses and decks, provide babysitting services or after school pickup and babysitting, manage someone's Quickbooks for their business, low cost computer IT services, anything you have skills for and there is a local need for. Never look back and be happy if you can break the chain of being an employee.
This: "And when wages get too high in China, if not 'robotized,' the jobs will move to Vietnam or elsewhere for lower wages." should be this: "And when Overhead get too high in China, if not 'robotized,' the jobs will move to Vietnam or elsewhere for lower Overhead."
Direct Labor cost in a product was never really a high percentage of the cost of manufacturing a product. Materials was always the largest % cost; Overhead was the second largest %cost; and Direct Labor was the third highest %cost. Direct Labor cost at 10% or less is not a reason to offshore. When you start adding SS, Medicare, Medicaid, OSHA regs, EPA, Child Labor regs , Overtime regs, Vacation Time, ESI, etc. into Overhead; it is easily bigger than the amount of Direct Labor cost in manufacturing. This does not exist to the same extent in Asia as it does in the US.
By the way, Shanghai has some of the worst air pollution globally also. I was there on the worst day in 2014earlier this year. China has a ways to go to improve it quality of life. When this occurs, Overhead will increase for manufacturing.
Excellent article. It is high time we get past the labels that stop us from doing the right thing. We need real talent in business who are not afraid to produce without some special protection but instead on the merits of good service real rewards to the employees for real efforts to satisfying the needs of their customers. Our business people have become too much a community of whiners who would rather complain of this and that rather than go forward with real innovation, who take care of their employees to inspire them to give of their best each day. That is what the true American spirit is, let's get back to basics. Any elementary school kid could tell us how to do it.
This article is pertinent to me as a South African student studying Economics. We experience an unemployment rate of roughly 25 % percent according to the strict definition and this rate is excluding those not searching for employment. There is a firm belief that this high unemployment rate can be attributed to the lack of an established formal sector in South Africa in the way that such sectors exist in developing countries such as India and Brazil. How much of a role do informal business sectors play in improving employment rates in developed countries such as America? and how are such sectors established if their role is of significance in these developed countries.
Unemployment has been a big problem for quite a while now, but I don't see how it can't be resolved. People are also extremely fussy when it comes to jobs, "I don't want to do that" or "That sounds like to much work for me". Companies are also making it quite difficult to get a job. Most companies want experienced workers, but they aren't willing to hire you so you could get some experience.
Although the unemployment rate has declined significantly, it is not something to be too proud of as the participation rate in the labour force has also declined. according to the statistics shown, the participation rate is at a low 62.7%. What is more alarming is that, of that percentage, 80.7% are people between the ages of 25 and 54 (prime working years) who are not participating. Therefore, the concern should rather be on why these people are not seeking jobs. My question is, is the decline in the unemployment rate a true reflection on the availablity of jobs and most importantly, people actually applying and taking those jobs?
Robert Thanks for bringing this to our attention. If that is upsetting, allow me to really make your blood boil. Before I came to economic theory I stumbled into a very troubling aspect of medical statistics. With the help of a courageous national reporter it became a national award winning story, but it was focused on a one particular "wonder drug". The key concept of the story is called Number Needed to Treat (NNT). It basically the ineffectiveness of drugs and surgery (not just Big Pharma). But don't an engineer's word for it...watch this TEDx by Dr. Newman. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCk_vTkS6bU If this stirs your curiosity see the website I believe Newman is involved with: thennt.com . And this is just the tip of the iceberg. The potential for cost reform based on minimum NNT (performance standard) is tremendous in my view. I will try to reach 60 min producer, becauses it needs to be revisited in a broader scope.
the revised August sales of $444.1 billion were originally reported at $444.4 billion, and July's sales were revised down from $441.8 billion to $441.5 billion..
although the overall 0.6% increase in August retail sales went essentially unrevised, there were revisions in sales for some of the component business types worth noting...the table of component changes from last month's advance release is here; the middle two columns in the table here show the revised data...we'd first note that August sales at auto dealers, the largest component of retail sales, were revised from the originally reporting 1.5% increase to an increase of 2.0%, although the entire automotive sales increase was a bit less at 1.9%...clothing store sales wee also revised higher, from the originally reported 0.3% rise to an increase of 0.8%, and sales at general merchandise stores, which were originally reported as down 0.1%, have been revised to show a 0.3% increase...on the other hand, sales at building materials and garden supply stores, which were originally reported as up 1.4% in August, have now been revised to an increase of just 0.5%...similarly, sales at miscellaneous store retailers, which were first reported as 2.5% higher in August, have been revised down to a 1.5% increase...other notable downward revisions include furniture store sales, reported as a 0.7% increase in the advance report, are now revised to a 0.3% rise; specialty store sales, as sporting goods, book and music stores, were also revised down 0.4%, from an increase of 0.9% to an increase of 0.4%, while the decrease in gasoline station sales is now shown at 1.1%, rather than the 0.8% decrease shown in the advance report, and the increase in drug stores sales was marked down from 0.6% to 0.3%...
like the table right at the end of the post shows, there's still 1,143,222 homeowners who are more than 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure (with an amazing average of 493 days behind on paying)..so there's still a lot of homeowners that are still in serious trouble, even though they have yet to be foreclosed on..
i have some friends who may be in that situation...
This clueless government that sheds millions wastefully and cannot balance its OWN budget is going to bully business owners that HAVE TO balance their budgets? Business owners have to be accountable. Big government does not. They should clean up their own houses before taking more small businesses out of profitability. As if the maddening stack of regulations a business has to face isn't enough of an incentive to close their doors.
The robotics are coming and so is more efficiency. Are you going to unionize the robots?
"If we purchase a ton of steel rails from England for twenty dollars, then we have the rails and England the money. But if we buy a ton of steel rails from an American for twenty-five dollars, then America has the rails and the money both." -- Abraham Lincoln
We throw cows at you you silly English! Oh those French, maybe a wooden rabbit taken into their castle will work. (Monty Python and the Holy Grail).
It is absurd they go out about "Oh those socialists", when France has a way higher quality of life than here, job security, health care, never mind awesome food.
Amazing article from Reuters on how people are getting assets, accounts seized years after a foreclosure.
Good God, one would think losing the house, the secured asset, would be it. Article here.
The foreclosure rates are still high and one would think they would drop to bubble years. Good God, you would think they would have run out of people to foreclose on by now.
Periodically I number crunch the age brackets for labor participation rate and prove that it is not "aging demographics", although part of it is.
I have to redo this because things change over time. 2008-2010 was not age and either was 2011-2013, but age became more of a factor. Aging baby boomers.
So, unless I see accurate data analysis by age, I blow off these "opinion" pieces.
I have no idea what you are doing, for these figures add monthly and are labor economics concepts.
See this post.
Labor flows mean people move from different subsets of employed, unemployed, not in labor force and flows of course would not add up on overall population additions of birth/death/immigration.
There are 'missing people' but this isn't right I believe EPI did a recent new estimate. 6.3 million!
Their analysis is here and they are worth following on how they calculate and arrive at missing 6,320,000 workers.
Robert, what are your thoughts about this recent article: "Don't Fret Over The Participation Rate"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2565335-dont-fret-over-the-participation...
Sept 92,584 Not in labor force
Aug 92,269 Not in labor force
315,000 more "not in labor force"
232 jobs created from month before
+315 not in labor force from month before
=547,000 ("The over 16 population increases about 200,000 to 220,000 each month)
-220,000 (* 220,000 babies born = 220,000 high school grads looking for work or going to college)
=327,000 (* So who are these people, what are they doing, and where did they go?)
Alhough I can understand your hostility and scepticism to many of these treatments - in regards to VNS therapy it is undeniable that it is a successful treatment for epilepsy. You present potential dangers of these devices (obviously they are in their infancy) but many medications are equally as clouded in mystery - with little to know knowledge of how they work, and what the short and long term effects are.
You are absolutely right about employers not even opening the door to people. This is the unspoken game that employers play with statistics. Companies all over America have record numbers of open reqs (aka job positions) but will not authorize budgets to allow for hiring. Many times these open reqs are in place to facilitate hiring from within (Admin Assistant wants to go into IT, etc) or are necessary steps to allow a consultant to be converted to employee, or are simply a statistical trick to boost the number of open jobs while collecting resumes from people they have no intention of hiring so they have "qualified" individuals in their contacts list for when spots must be filled to deal with attrition or layoffs of higher paid long term staff. Now to the advice... work for yourself with whatever you can do and whatever fits into your life. Take advantage of Obamacare however you can in your state to deal with the Benefits problem first. Reach out to local organizations for advice in how to deal with the basic need to knows to be a business person (what minimal insurance is really needed, how to do cheap advertising, etc). Ask the leaders of these local organizations (Knights of Columbus, Elks, Lions, Chamber of Commerce, etc) for recommendations for mentoring help. Reach out to local charitable groups to see what programs you may be entitled to that can offset the basic needs while you get things off the ground (food banks, housing assistance, free daycare, etc). Then provide a local service that is needed. Get a second hand set of lawn equip and do local landscaping, power wash houses and decks, provide babysitting services or after school pickup and babysitting, manage someone's Quickbooks for their business, low cost computer IT services, anything you have skills for and there is a local need for. Never look back and be happy if you can break the chain of being an employee.
Bud:
This: "And when wages get too high in China, if not 'robotized,' the jobs will move to Vietnam or elsewhere for lower wages." should be this: "And when Overhead get too high in China, if not 'robotized,' the jobs will move to Vietnam or elsewhere for lower Overhead."
Direct Labor cost in a product was never really a high percentage of the cost of manufacturing a product. Materials was always the largest % cost; Overhead was the second largest %cost; and Direct Labor was the third highest %cost. Direct Labor cost at 10% or less is not a reason to offshore. When you start adding SS, Medicare, Medicaid, OSHA regs, EPA, Child Labor regs , Overtime regs, Vacation Time, ESI, etc. into Overhead; it is easily bigger than the amount of Direct Labor cost in manufacturing. This does not exist to the same extent in Asia as it does in the US.
By the way, Shanghai has some of the worst air pollution globally also. I was there on the worst day in 2014earlier this year. China has a ways to go to improve it quality of life. When this occurs, Overhead will increase for manufacturing.
Excellent article. It is high time we get past the labels that stop us from doing the right thing. We need real talent in business who are not afraid to produce without some special protection but instead on the merits of good service real rewards to the employees for real efforts to satisfying the needs of their customers. Our business people have become too much a community of whiners who would rather complain of this and that rather than go forward with real innovation, who take care of their employees to inspire them to give of their best each day. That is what the true American spirit is, let's get back to basics. Any elementary school kid could tell us how to do it.
This article is pertinent to me as a South African student studying Economics. We experience an unemployment rate of roughly 25 % percent according to the strict definition and this rate is excluding those not searching for employment. There is a firm belief that this high unemployment rate can be attributed to the lack of an established formal sector in South Africa in the way that such sectors exist in developing countries such as India and Brazil. How much of a role do informal business sectors play in improving employment rates in developed countries such as America? and how are such sectors established if their role is of significance in these developed countries.
Unemployment has been a big problem for quite a while now, but I don't see how it can't be resolved. People are also extremely fussy when it comes to jobs, "I don't want to do that" or "That sounds like to much work for me". Companies are also making it quite difficult to get a job. Most companies want experienced workers, but they aren't willing to hire you so you could get some experience.
Although the unemployment rate has declined significantly, it is not something to be too proud of as the participation rate in the labour force has also declined. according to the statistics shown, the participation rate is at a low 62.7%. What is more alarming is that, of that percentage, 80.7% are people between the ages of 25 and 54 (prime working years) who are not participating. Therefore, the concern should rather be on why these people are not seeking jobs. My question is, is the decline in the unemployment rate a true reflection on the availablity of jobs and most importantly, people actually applying and taking those jobs?
Robert Thanks for bringing this to our attention. If that is upsetting, allow me to really make your blood boil. Before I came to economic theory I stumbled into a very troubling aspect of medical statistics. With the help of a courageous national reporter it became a national award winning story, but it was focused on a one particular "wonder drug". The key concept of the story is called Number Needed to Treat (NNT). It basically the ineffectiveness of drugs and surgery (not just Big Pharma). But don't an engineer's word for it...watch this TEDx by Dr. Newman. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCk_vTkS6bU If this stirs your curiosity see the website I believe Newman is involved with: thennt.com . And this is just the tip of the iceberg. The potential for cost reform based on minimum NNT (performance standard) is tremendous in my view. I will try to reach 60 min producer, becauses it needs to be revisited in a broader scope.
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