I am assuming that if one wanted to invest in foreign currency ETFs, whoever is actually running such an ETF would have to pay this 30% tax and pass it onto shareholders of the ETF, thereby making such ETFs a prohibitively sucky investment. Is this correct?
Germany runs a trade deficit with China. The U.S. non=oil trade deficit is >80% China. So, while Germany does have better labor support and rights, China isn't a problem for just the United States, which is why it is seen other nations will join the U.S. in demanding China float the RMB.
I'll write more about this but when one has a currency exchange ~40% below it's real value, it has an amazing advantage on trade.
I believe the RMB manipulation isn't the only thing but it was much to my own surprise the magnitude (which I'll write up soon) Chinese currency manipulation had on the U.S. trade deficit with China. It's a good chunk of U.S. GDP!
Here is the actual bill here and ZeroHedge uploaded the final PDF here.
I scanned through it once and it's fairly complex, beyond what is quoted, but it still does appear to boil down to individuals. I found a host of "financial advisers" and "tax professionals" who haven't figured it out yet.
That said I find it disgusting that they exempted corporations who are the very ones moving funds around the globe for tax avoidance purposes.
How very bizarre! I remember Robert Reich proclaiming the exact same thing back in the '90s.
They must have these little red books they all read the same script from (those silly economists!!!!).
Duuuuh.....could it be that debt is figured in with the growth in the GDP, so that when extreme debt is created, that ostensible growth in the GDP is debt-driven???
Could it be that the vanishing American worker is always the Fifth Option: (1) offshoring, (2) foreign scab workers imported under many different visa programs (and through loopholes created in the Singapore Accords -- thanks Charlie Rangel, faux democrat!), (3) undocumented workers, (4) human trafficking (illegal or undocumented slave labor smuggled into the USA and paid - or not - slave wages), and finally (5) temp workers, who may, or may not, be US citizens.
The report is great, but the underlying cause is not the undervaluation of the RMB.
Case in point: Germany
Germany despite being a 1st world nation as well as having the euro (quite strong in the past decade since its inception) nonetheless was the largest export economy until last year.
A glance at Germany's formula shows many differences, but they can be distilled down to 2 items:
1) A much more sensible division of profits and responsibilities between government, labor, and management
2) A lack of FIRE based interests driving up housing
Both items are important, because national health care for example is a government enterprise by which both labor and management benefit and pay for.
But in turn international competitiveness is still dependent on relative costs. Housing prices in Germany were flat for most of the global housing bubble - partly due to an earlier spike from a housing tax subsidy which expired in 1998.
You are right. Central Banks and the politically connected will be exempt from this new law.
I didn't bother mentioning this because it's almost implied anymore.
(2) Any international organization or any wholly owned agency or agent instrumentality thereof;
Am I missing something but doesn't that right there imply MNCs can go ahead and move money around the globe, no problem and avoid U.S. taxes?
i.e. this isn't the "anti-offshore outsourcing" tax as claimed but does seem to be against individuals as you are pointing out?
It's more offshore banking, finance, stashing and seemingly against individuals, has nothing to do with even stopping the manipulation of national tax codes, which corporations do by parking a lot of profits offshore and also reinvest offshore (ship jobs offshore).
I'm looking at the exemptions listed on the Zero Hedge article.
I didn't really go into it that much for all I saw that really stood out was air-o-planes, non-defense. Those new orders are extremely volatile, obviously because they are million dollar I think some are billion(?) sales a pop.
Here is the EP write up on durable goods for 02/10.
Primary metals was up 2.2, capital goods also rose 5.4...I'd say that was a nice sign because that's basically business gear for the most part (stuff you need in running your business).
Orders were likely lifted by sturdy aircraft bookings, which offset another decline in orders for motor vehicles and parts. Non-defense aircraft orders rose 32.7 percent last month after a surging 134.9 percent in January. Vehicle orders fell 1.9 percent after a 2.3 percent drop the prior month.
For retail sales ... looks like teens are shopping again
and something weird is going on, I upload the actual reports from the gov. to this site and weird, they aren't showing up.
This is 2 today, so let me know if they aren't there. I do that because they are so hard to find, esp. after their release time period is up.
Anywho, looking at the BEA report, on PCE we've got:
a 2.5% increase in non-durable goods, a 0.4% increase in durable goods and a 0.2% increase in services from last quarter. 3rd quarter we had a blow out increase in durable goods. This is all in table 1. Then in terms of investments, I already listed a lot of those. Equipment & software really gained, 17.5% from last quarter.
Further breakdowns can be had from things like retail sales. The farthest breakdown is by NAICS codes. Feb. a bunch of people ran out and bought flat screen TVs and new fancy washing machines is what it looks like.
But GDP is adjusted by inflation, prices (real GDP) whereas retail sales is not.
What would be nice is a graph-o-rama on what sectors and services and activities make up what % of overall GDP.
I think PCE is about 78%. Investment is about ?? 11% currently.
we have to look at the PCE more closely. What are people buying?
In an insider-retail mag that I came across recently - all large retailers scaled back on store openings for 2009 EXCEPT the dollar stores and auto parts stores.
With the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the service industry slow to rebound, one has to wonder what is the catalyst for new jobs.
Also, is there any way to measure investment avenues? What are primary investment vehicles?
Naked Capitalism and this blog are my two must-read daily reads. It's good to see Yves' book is getting some buzz. It would be great if books like this started getting more mainstream appeal.
But output is revenues, so if they are squeezing workers, it would potentially show up as increased revenues in labor productivity. (as increased output, corporate revenues). (total revenues scaled by the industry price index). the hours are just that, the hours, not the actual wages.
I know in tech, they loved young people because they had no life and would work 24/7. Now that tech workers are older, hey are broke, and still have no life because they were busy being abused by the tech industry and didn't get one (some, many).
which is a good question if they report true hours or salaried and just take 40 hrs. because a lot of salaried are working 80 hours, not 40. TBI (to be investigated).
I'm sure there is a formal term for this, but what I am witnessing is that seasoned employees that were laid off in 2009 are now being replaced by younger, less experienced workers (and lowering overall wages).
demanding they raw data aggregate on jobs created offshore, jobs lost offshore, citizenship status of workers (to capture BPO and other foreign labor arbitrage enterprises), and most importantly, the total foreign activities, including investments, hires, facilities by U.S. MNCs where the final sales are mainly in the United States.
I don't know, write Congress a letter saying we need global data metrics, real time data metrics and do not let MNCs and other vested interests bully you into stopping in getting some real damn data.
Oh Gee, they have no idea where the jobs went...just read any Indian newspaper how they are rejoicing on how it is raining jobs over there and those jobs are coming from....the United States. That's offshore outsourcing...and these cats cannot even mention the term.
I am assuming that if one wanted to invest in foreign currency ETFs, whoever is actually running such an ETF would have to pay this 30% tax and pass it onto shareholders of the ETF, thereby making such ETFs a prohibitively sucky investment. Is this correct?
miasmo.com
I just made a mistake and put this as a blog post instead of in the Instapopulist, to be categorized as macro econ.
I'll fix it later, but don't front page it. Thanks.
Germany runs a trade deficit with China. The U.S. non=oil trade deficit is >80% China. So, while Germany does have better labor support and rights, China isn't a problem for just the United States, which is why it is seen other nations will join the U.S. in demanding China float the RMB.
I'll write more about this but when one has a currency exchange ~40% below it's real value, it has an amazing advantage on trade.
I believe the RMB manipulation isn't the only thing but it was much to my own surprise the magnitude (which I'll write up soon) Chinese currency manipulation had on the U.S. trade deficit with China. It's a good chunk of U.S. GDP!
Here is the actual bill here and ZeroHedge uploaded the final PDF here.
I scanned through it once and it's fairly complex, beyond what is quoted, but it still does appear to boil down to individuals. I found a host of "financial advisers" and "tax professionals" who haven't figured it out yet.
That said I find it disgusting that they exempted corporations who are the very ones moving funds around the globe for tax avoidance purposes.
How very bizarre! I remember Robert Reich proclaiming the exact same thing back in the '90s.
They must have these little red books they all read the same script from (those silly economists!!!!).
Duuuuh.....could it be that debt is figured in with the growth in the GDP, so that when extreme debt is created, that ostensible growth in the GDP is debt-driven???
Could it be that the vanishing American worker is always the Fifth Option: (1) offshoring, (2) foreign scab workers imported under many different visa programs (and through loopholes created in the Singapore Accords -- thanks Charlie Rangel, faux democrat!), (3) undocumented workers, (4) human trafficking (illegal or undocumented slave labor smuggled into the USA and paid - or not - slave wages), and finally (5) temp workers, who may, or may not, be US citizens.
It appears as if Trusts would be exempted as well, a financial tool used for international offshoring of funds.
It would seem more like legislation for taxing individuals who plan to vacate the USA.
Since Part 1's still on the front-oage, didn't want to hog it up:
Part 2 of In Defense of Public Sector Unionism. (with numbers!)
The report is great, but the underlying cause is not the undervaluation of the RMB.
Case in point: Germany
Germany despite being a 1st world nation as well as having the euro (quite strong in the past decade since its inception) nonetheless was the largest export economy until last year.
A glance at Germany's formula shows many differences, but they can be distilled down to 2 items:
1) A much more sensible division of profits and responsibilities between government, labor, and management
2) A lack of FIRE based interests driving up housing
Both items are important, because national health care for example is a government enterprise by which both labor and management benefit and pay for.
But in turn international competitiveness is still dependent on relative costs. Housing prices in Germany were flat for most of the global housing bubble - partly due to an earlier spike from a housing tax subsidy which expired in 1998.
You are right. Central Banks and the politically connected will be exempt from this new law.
I didn't bother mentioning this because it's almost implied anymore.
(2) Any international organization or any wholly owned agency or agent instrumentality thereof;
Am I missing something but doesn't that right there imply MNCs can go ahead and move money around the globe, no problem and avoid U.S. taxes?
i.e. this isn't the "anti-offshore outsourcing" tax as claimed but does seem to be against individuals as you are pointing out?
It's more offshore banking, finance, stashing and seemingly against individuals, has nothing to do with even stopping the manipulation of national tax codes, which corporations do by parking a lot of profits offshore and also reinvest offshore (ship jobs offshore).
I'm looking at the exemptions listed on the Zero Hedge article.
I didn't really go into it that much for all I saw that really stood out was air-o-planes, non-defense. Those new orders are extremely volatile, obviously because they are million dollar I think some are billion(?) sales a pop.
Here is the EP write up on durable goods for 02/10.
Primary metals was up 2.2, capital goods also rose 5.4...I'd say that was a nice sign because that's basically business gear for the most part (stuff you need in running your business).
Just to point out that Feb 2008 retail comp sales were down .6 %
2007 to 2009 only rose 3.5%
According to this report ... on Feb durable goods
For retail sales ... looks like teens are shopping again
Street Insider: Feb. Retail Rundown: Same Store Sales Continue to Recovery
and something weird is going on, I upload the actual reports from the gov. to this site and weird, they aren't showing up.
This is 2 today, so let me know if they aren't there. I do that because they are so hard to find, esp. after their release time period is up.
Anywho, looking at the BEA report, on PCE we've got:
a 2.5% increase in non-durable goods, a 0.4% increase in durable goods and a 0.2% increase in services from last quarter. 3rd quarter we had a blow out increase in durable goods. This is all in table 1. Then in terms of investments, I already listed a lot of those. Equipment & software really gained, 17.5% from last quarter.
Further breakdowns can be had from things like retail sales. The farthest breakdown is by NAICS codes. Feb. a bunch of people ran out and bought flat screen TVs and new fancy washing machines is what it looks like.
But GDP is adjusted by inflation, prices (real GDP) whereas retail sales is not.
What would be nice is a graph-o-rama on what sectors and services and activities make up what % of overall GDP.
I think PCE is about 78%. Investment is about ?? 11% currently.
we have to look at the PCE more closely. What are people buying?
In an insider-retail mag that I came across recently - all large retailers scaled back on store openings for 2009 EXCEPT the dollar stores and auto parts stores.
With the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the service industry slow to rebound, one has to wonder what is the catalyst for new jobs.
Also, is there any way to measure investment avenues? What are primary investment vehicles?
Naked Capitalism and this blog are my two must-read daily reads. It's good to see Yves' book is getting some buzz. It would be great if books like this started getting more mainstream appeal.
http://jims-blog.com
There are now loads of books on the financial crisis, many spinning a tale of a joke. Naked Capitalism is a "must read" blog!
is output divided by hours in it's more simple form.
But output is revenues, so if they are squeezing workers, it would potentially show up as increased revenues in labor productivity. (as increased output, corporate revenues). (total revenues scaled by the industry price index). the hours are just that, the hours, not the actual wages.
I know in tech, they loved young people because they had no life and would work 24/7. Now that tech workers are older, hey are broke, and still have no life because they were busy being abused by the tech industry and didn't get one (some, many).
which is a good question if they report true hours or salaried and just take 40 hrs. because a lot of salaried are working 80 hours, not 40. TBI (to be investigated).
I'm sure there is a formal term for this, but what I am witnessing is that seasoned employees that were laid off in 2009 are now being replaced by younger, less experienced workers (and lowering overall wages).
How does this play into increased "productivity'?
demanding they raw data aggregate on jobs created offshore, jobs lost offshore, citizenship status of workers (to capture BPO and other foreign labor arbitrage enterprises), and most importantly, the total foreign activities, including investments, hires, facilities by U.S. MNCs where the final sales are mainly in the United States.
I don't know, write Congress a letter saying we need global data metrics, real time data metrics and do not let MNCs and other vested interests bully you into stopping in getting some real damn data.
Oh Gee, they have no idea where the jobs went...just read any Indian newspaper how they are rejoicing on how it is raining jobs over there and those jobs are coming from....the United States. That's offshore outsourcing...and these cats cannot even mention the term.
We also clearly had an economic contraction.
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