is more worried about China than America. But the rhetoric is most interesting since Japan, really didn't do "labor arbitrage" the way the U.S. or EU is...they invested heavily in advanced manufacturing and continue to be highly strategic on trade, exports and future economic growth sectors...
so this implies they are even more going to put their workforce first to me.
Yeah, that infamous "buy our debt" and we'll pass "x policy" regardless on what is does to the U.S. labor force at least on Japan's part might be coming to an end...
Myself I sure have been looking at these latest statistics of the financial oligarchy strengthened an increase of a stratified society, the "haves and the have nots", and have been implying and thinking "I get it, the entire financial meltdown scare tactic was simply a financial oligarchy takeover"...
but Simon Johnson in this post is coming out with it much more strongly.
It's a great read and he is also trying to define a "two track" economy to further describe why a few financial elites are "green shoots" while the rest of the nation is "salted and barren" on the state of the economy.
IMHO. GDP is a mathematical formula. If you increase "G" more than the decrease in "C" (other factors being equal), you increase GDP. The only real question to be answered, at this point, is "does it pass the so what test?" In other words, does it postively impact the middle class, average, working (or hope to be soon returning to work) American citizen.
Look, I admit that I am a DFH from the 60s and therefore I'm very cynical about most "news" eminating from government. Nevertheless, I am schooled in economics and have a real belief in logic and mathematics. Accordingly, I very much appreciate the analyses of NDD and others around the blogoshpere. But I also built my professional career in international business on all of that, as well as my intuition.
Looking around me at what is happening in the "real" economy just doesn't square with what the economic indicators say. To me, that is a profound contradiction to my common sense that I can not overlook.
if they have a good track record on prediction as they claim...let's just leave it at and "we'll see", that but I've not really heard about them much, of course I wasn't paying attention to cycles either.
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see high Q3, Q4 GDP here but that's because I think it's going to come from government spending/stimulus....
(although not hitting an official 10% unemployment number by the end of 2009 sure would surprise me, I don't think that's going to happen).
which the problem with a lot of this is all of the much need financial regulatory reforms, the structural policy adjustments, trade, start growing the middle class income...all of these things are getting ignored....
which makes me wonder if simply government spending is the next great bubble.
Since they make their living doing economic forecasting (as opposed to places like Pimpco which have other agendas), I have some little confidence in saying that they don't want to give away the contents of their black box.
In market-oriented economies, cycles in economic growth, employment and inflation are inherently cyclical. Over decades of continuous research covering dozens of economies, ECRI researchers have uncovered reliable sequences of events that occur in the vicinity of turning points in these cycles. Monitoring these durable sequences affords us unique insights into the evolution of each cycle, helping us to predict cyclical turning points.
Here is one of their testimonials:
Anything that Geoffrey Moore does I follow very closely, because he taught me Statistics 101 in college.
- ALAN GREENSPAN
Here is another one:
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW, APR. 2004
You can get all the free information you want by visiting their website here. Beyond that, you need to buy their book and subscribe to their service. Hey, if it's good enough for Alan Greenspan, it should better than good for the rest of us among the great unwashed. I wonder if P.T, Barnum was a subscriber?
I could have a 100% correlation coefficient to say my periodic refrigerator hum and MSFT being the sell point...
doesn't make it foolproof or tell me anything about what is in this index.
Just say they have the magic crystal ball doesn't tell me why that ball would work.
and in terms of structural changes, all I see going on is they are completely re-inflating that entire "citizen as consumer" labor arbitrage model. Gee, it just collapsed and wrecked havoc globally and it's all about doing it all over again! Sorry if I sound a little political here but people are getting sucked into "pin the tail on the recession end" instead of looking at those long term middle class declines and what it means.
Here is the salient information re ECRI from their report of March 18, 2009:
The end of this recession – the most severe downturn since World War II – is finally in sight. This is the clear message from ECRI’s array of leading indexes of the U.S. economy. (scroll down for chart)
What are these indicators? First, it’s ECRI’s U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI), which has the longest average lead times of any U.S. leading index. It’s also the Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which has a shorter lead over the business cycle, but is very promptly available.
The growth rate of the USLLI turned up in November 2008, and has now advanced for four straight months. The growth rate of the WLI turned up soon after that, in early December 2008, and, as of mid-April 2009, had been rising for more than four months (top two lines in chart). A rigorous examination of the data affirms that both USLLI growth and WLI growth have been in cyclical upturns for at least four months.
.... In fact, over the last 75 years, growth rate cycle upturns during every recession were followed zero to four months later by the end of the recession itself. No exceptions.
Actually, there’s been only one solitary exception in the data we have examined, which go back well over a century. This was the growth rate cycle upturn of 1930-31, which gave way to a renewed downturn. But, when this growth rate cycle upturn was beginning at the end of 1930, USLLI growth was turning back down, warning that the firming in growth would soon be reversed, effectively opening the door to depression. That’s not the case today.
We know this because the USLLI data go back to 1919, covering not only the Great Depression but also the 1920-21 depression. Another ECRI leading index has a 105-year history, covering not only those depressions, but also the panic of 1907 and the associated 1907-08 depression. All of those leading indexes, which correctly anticipated recessions and recoveries over long periods of history, are now pointing the same way.
.... Along with the rest of ECRI’s leading indexes, these developments are pointing to a business cycle recovery this year, probably by the end of the summer.
But isn’t this recession without precedent? Sure, if you consider only the run-of-the-mill postwar recessions to which most economists have fitted their models. But ECRI’s indicator systems cover not just garden-variety recessions but also jungle-variety depressions, panics and crises spanning well over a century.... And we find that this recession shares family resemblances to earlier, prewar downturns that few have systematically examined.
Honestly.I may have been called a few things in my time but never "Anonymous Drive-by".
Nevertheless,as I remember; being in "purgatory" is neither heaven or hell but it's definitely better than being in "limbo". Or is it? What's the difference? Perhaps that would depend on one's political perspective.. and so round it (ie the argument) goes again, stupid.
What about "Anything you can do I can do better" as a more cheerful way to describe this whole global economic, financial and political context?( eg See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY7Hh5PzELo)
In any event, thank you very much for this facility.
I just saw that the largest percentage of Stimulus dollars are to be deployed Q3, Q4 2009 so maybe that is the reason. We can already see that it's government spending which kept the GDP from free fall, plus you have this 0 interest rate helping the stock market (based on what?) feeding frenzy.
I have not looked at those deployment numbers but if it's that massive, it would temporarily put GDP on steroids potentially.
Never heard of them and know nothing of their track record, what are the details...their website says their clients are "major Fortune 500 companies".
I mean what's left to squeeze? Over in the Revised Q2, 2009, I went through the corporate profit numbers and they are clearly derived from "slash and burn", basically the employees....with that concept the work force is disposable (walk the plank, overboard!) as a method to increase profits...
that's another thing, I remember numerous studies from the 80's, 90's, when this disposable worker mantra started which showed corporations could literally layoff themselves out of business. But I guess these cats don't care because they can do a firesale and make off with some mega buck "merger" bonus.
I also find all of this beyond absurd, this pin the tail on the recession war game going on.
We have, undisputed, initial claims that are at deep recession levels. If they were at the 300's, I'd see a reason to celebrate but they are not...
it's like people are looking at this little slope delta window instead of the absolute numbers and what those absolute levels imply.
Anyway, if there is some beyond belief blow out economic growth somewhere....I'd really like to know where they are hiding it so they can share with the rest of the class!
The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to 17.5 percent after hitting a 26-year high of 14.3 percent last week
The economy is in the toilet and this indicator is hitting a 26-year high. Even higher than the late 90's.
Something tells me that this indicator doesn't mean anything in the real world.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to nearly a year-high of 125.0 in the week to Aug. 14 from an upwardly revised 124.4 the prior week, which ECRI originally reported at 123.9.
The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to 17.5 percent after hitting a 26-year high of 14.3 percent last week, which was also revised higher from 13.4 percent.
It was the highest yearly growth rate the index has seen since the week to July 29, 1983, when it was 17.8 percent.
ok, wow, but the problem is they do not release at all what exactly their indicators are based on and also I cannot find their track record.
Then, we're looking at all sorts of economic indicators and I sure don't see "flaming growth" anywhere as you point out in your post.
Anyone else ever heard of ECRI and know their "forecasting" track record?
So Bernanke will have a few tough days of posturing by the senate panel, offer some platitudes, and evade Shelby's tough questions, then go on to confirmation. Issues such as these should be a major focus of confirmation hearings, but only if there is the will to do something about it.
Frank T.
and thought "disaster capitalism". It's akin to saying there is a crisis in operating systems....therefore Microsoft will be subsidized and anyone using Linux will be penalized and oh yes, we're sure Linux has Microsoft patents so we're going to shut them down, crisis over.
This is what we are left w/ very little competition. If policy makers, particularly the Obama Administration, don't want to offend the oligarchy then hopefully the somewhat independent new head of DOJ Anti-Trust Division will do something. I hope.
in slightly different ways but it comes down to this:
Income inequality + Financialization + Globalization = Destruction of Middle Class
I know, Robert, you are a math geek (and purist) but this equation (I hope) simplifies things for people and policy makers.
Just kidding about the purist thing.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
is more worried about China than America. But the rhetoric is most interesting since Japan, really didn't do "labor arbitrage" the way the U.S. or EU is...they invested heavily in advanced manufacturing and continue to be highly strategic on trade, exports and future economic growth sectors...
so this implies they are even more going to put their workforce first to me.
Yeah, that infamous "buy our debt" and we'll pass "x policy" regardless on what is does to the U.S. labor force at least on Japan's part might be coming to an end...
Myself I sure have been looking at these latest statistics of the financial oligarchy strengthened an increase of a stratified society, the "haves and the have nots", and have been implying and thinking "I get it, the entire financial meltdown scare tactic was simply a financial oligarchy takeover"...
but Simon Johnson in this post is coming out with it much more strongly.
It's a great read and he is also trying to define a "two track" economy to further describe why a few financial elites are "green shoots" while the rest of the nation is "salted and barren" on the state of the economy.
IMHO. GDP is a mathematical formula. If you increase "G" more than the decrease in "C" (other factors being equal), you increase GDP. The only real question to be answered, at this point, is "does it pass the so what test?" In other words, does it postively impact the middle class, average, working (or hope to be soon returning to work) American citizen.
Look, I admit that I am a DFH from the 60s and therefore I'm very cynical about most "news" eminating from government. Nevertheless, I am schooled in economics and have a real belief in logic and mathematics. Accordingly, I very much appreciate the analyses of NDD and others around the blogoshpere. But I also built my professional career in international business on all of that, as well as my intuition.
Looking around me at what is happening in the "real" economy just doesn't square with what the economic indicators say. To me, that is a profound contradiction to my common sense that I can not overlook.
if they have a good track record on prediction as they claim...let's just leave it at and "we'll see", that but I've not really heard about them much, of course I wasn't paying attention to cycles either.
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see high Q3, Q4 GDP here but that's because I think it's going to come from government spending/stimulus....
(although not hitting an official 10% unemployment number by the end of 2009 sure would surprise me, I don't think that's going to happen).
which the problem with a lot of this is all of the much need financial regulatory reforms, the structural policy adjustments, trade, start growing the middle class income...all of these things are getting ignored....
which makes me wonder if simply government spending is the next great bubble.
see their client list?
I'm going to go look at the projected Q3, Q4 '09 Government spending myself. ;)
Since they make their living doing economic forecasting (as opposed to places like Pimpco which have other agendas), I have some little confidence in saying that they don't want to give away the contents of their black box.
Here is what ECRI has to say about themselves,
Here is one of their testimonials:
Here is another one:
You can get all the free information you want by visiting their website here. Beyond that, you need to buy their book and subscribe to their service. Hey, if it's good enough for Alan Greenspan, it should better than good for the rest of us among the great unwashed. I wonder if P.T, Barnum was a subscriber?
I could have a 100% correlation coefficient to say my periodic refrigerator hum and MSFT being the sell point...
doesn't make it foolproof or tell me anything about what is in this index.
Just say they have the magic crystal ball doesn't tell me why that ball would work.
and in terms of structural changes, all I see going on is they are completely re-inflating that entire "citizen as consumer" labor arbitrage model. Gee, it just collapsed and wrecked havoc globally and it's all about doing it all over again! Sorry if I sound a little political here but people are getting sucked into "pin the tail on the recession end" instead of looking at those long term middle class declines and what it means.
Here is the salient information re ECRI from their report of March 18, 2009:
Honestly.I may have been called a few things in my time but never "Anonymous Drive-by".
Nevertheless,as I remember; being in "purgatory" is neither heaven or hell but it's definitely better than being in "limbo". Or is it? What's the difference? Perhaps that would depend on one's political perspective.. and so round it (ie the argument) goes again, stupid.
What about "Anything you can do I can do better" as a more cheerful way to describe this whole global economic, financial and political context?( eg See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY7Hh5PzELo)
In any event, thank you very much for this facility.
I just saw that the largest percentage of Stimulus dollars are to be deployed Q3, Q4 2009 so maybe that is the reason. We can already see that it's government spending which kept the GDP from free fall, plus you have this 0 interest rate helping the stock market (based on what?) feeding frenzy.
I have not looked at those deployment numbers but if it's that massive, it would temporarily put GDP on steroids potentially.
Never heard of them and know nothing of their track record, what are the details...their website says their clients are "major Fortune 500 companies".
I mean what's left to squeeze? Over in the Revised Q2, 2009, I went through the corporate profit numbers and they are clearly derived from "slash and burn", basically the employees....with that concept the work force is disposable (walk the plank, overboard!) as a method to increase profits...
that's another thing, I remember numerous studies from the 80's, 90's, when this disposable worker mantra started which showed corporations could literally layoff themselves out of business. But I guess these cats don't care because they can do a firesale and make off with some mega buck "merger" bonus.
I also find all of this beyond absurd, this pin the tail on the recession war game going on.
We have, undisputed, initial claims that are at deep recession levels. If they were at the 300's, I'd see a reason to celebrate but they are not...
it's like people are looking at this little slope delta window instead of the absolute numbers and what those absolute levels imply.
Anyway, if there is some beyond belief blow out economic growth somewhere....I'd really like to know where they are hiding it so they can share with the rest of the class!
The economy is in the toilet and this indicator is hitting a 26-year high. Even higher than the late 90's.
Something tells me that this indicator doesn't mean anything in the real world.
Forbes
ok, wow, but the problem is they do not release at all what exactly their indicators are based on and also I cannot find their track record.
Then, we're looking at all sorts of economic indicators and I sure don't see "flaming growth" anywhere as you point out in your post.
Anyone else ever heard of ECRI and know their "forecasting" track record?
Is here. I suggest reading it, it's loaded with graphs and data...
reads more like an in depth article/blog post than a press release, loaded with information.
There is also this article which has more graphs, data.
Potentially extrapolating out some of the charts, data from the press release and writing up a blog post is in order.
The biggest thing is > 25% of all banks are not profitable right now.
What was that about 1930 and anybody who notices any similarities is just some psycho doom & gloom "novice"?
So Bernanke will have a few tough days of posturing by the senate panel, offer some platitudes, and evade Shelby's tough questions, then go on to confirmation. Issues such as these should be a major focus of confirmation hearings, but only if there is the will to do something about it.
Frank T.
and thought "disaster capitalism". It's akin to saying there is a crisis in operating systems....therefore Microsoft will be subsidized and anyone using Linux will be penalized and oh yes, we're sure Linux has Microsoft patents so we're going to shut them down, crisis over.
This is what we are left w/ very little competition. If policy makers, particularly the Obama Administration, don't want to offend the oligarchy then hopefully the somewhat independent new head of DOJ Anti-Trust Division will do something. I hope.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
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