We've picked up some followers and all of this is new to me, so anyone viewing EP from their mobile phone or wants more features to do EP mobile, please let me know and leave a comment.
Myself, I have a super thin laptop which I use for everything, including mobile, so I may not be aware of all of the issues as I modify the site for mobile use.
Help me out and let me know of any issues/problems/features!
Do you not remember my article here?
Remember, the unemployment rate in 1930 was 8.7%, a rate we've already exceeded. Just because we haven't hit the 1932 levels yet only means that we aren't 4 years into the New Depression yet.
Granted, things might not get that bad, but we don't know for certain yet. What we do know is that we are tracking the Great Depression very closely so far.
I noted all of the downward revisions as well in the GDP report (H/T NC) but keyword Depression?
I have to go back and look at those stats but it seems from the top of my head we aren't anywhere near those statistics...
That said, I also did a little digging and our complaint, which is the damn last recession, at least for the middle class never ended, i.e. a jobless recovery is not a recovery...and saw that housing was contributing 3.5% GDP!
That's outrageous to see the economy was being built on "hot air" from 2002-2007.
Need to dig deeper but I hesitate on keyword term depression.
which means as long as the posts are well done, well cited, credible, based in statistical and economy reality, anything econ, labor, trade related is of interest.
Yesterday I tried to drum up some awareness that the "executive compensation" bill was an absolute hollow gesture (and still GOP corporate reps. are trying to kill even that!) and it really was surprising how little attention I could get to that topic. I mean just two months ago they were all about to lynch AIG executives. Now it's a yawn?
Sigh, so yeah, policy is assuredly appropriate here (although space the posts out, don't want a flood in a few days for ex. so other people's stuff is seen and read).
Good to know. I'm still learning about how this blog works.
Yeah, I'm definitely more of the policy blogger than the economics analysis blogger - in no small part because I'm a policy historian by training, and only an extremely amateur economics reader.
I also have a bit of a backlog of stuff I should cross-post here in that it fits in with the "economic populist" angle.
the biggest thing on EP is the promotion/demotion system to keep high quality content to the front page. but in terms of ratings and so on, it's used as a feedback to let people know we read their comment and we like it or whatever, but it's not like DK ...which can be used "as a weapon".
Be assured, you'll get readers.
I guess I"m the "policy/legislative" blogger on EP, some are more pure economics analysts, some finance and I have numerous posts on policy change, great ideas as I dig into them on here.
I'll have to get back to you but overall getting the focus on sound, good policy (we're not so partisan though, we're officially an "all things econ" site) is so needed!
Yesterday I watch "beer" and claims we don't need any financial regulatory reform because oopsy, our regulators "just missed it" and the actual regulatory laws, structures "aren't really a problem".
So, we have an out of sight, out of mind situation going on ...
is sacrificing the U.S. production economy simply because oh tisk, tisk, they are worried about crashing the China economy...ya gotta wonder who do these politicians represent? and on top of it, come on, "all we need to do" is change the culture of 1.3 billion people who are a bunch of savers?
We simply should not worry about what China is doing and start worrying about what America is doing. Let China worry about China.
While I am not as well versed in these issues, I have always been interested in seeing how gold, the main asset class that the US government does not want to see higher, acts during these volatile economic times. I do find it interesting that the volatility of the Gold Price
has declined so much this year. I guess it is just difficult to predict the short term movements and relationships of gold and currencies.
And if you like what you read, check out The Realignment Project. We've got a lot more good stuff. Incidentally, we're also looking for contributing writers, so if you have stuff you've written/would like to write about "big ideas," long-term thinking about the future of progressive politics and policy, and the like, send me a line.
but I think it should be an independent diary on its own, because limiting cross-border capital flows strikes at the very heart of the economic neo-liberalism that has been the reigning economic paradigm for the past three decades. There is also this important in Johnson's article: The US has historically pushed the view that all capital controls are bad and should be abolished – in fact, this was a major international policy initiative of the Clinton administration, led in this regard by Messrs. Summers and Geithner (who both came up through the international side of Treasury).
Ian Walsh has some interesting things to say about US-China economic relations on his blog this past week:
. . . . Both America and China did a stimulus. China’s stimulus is already working. It had 7.1% GDP growth. The US is still mired in recession.
Why? Two main reasons.
* China did its stimulus right. It wasn’t 40% bullshit tax cuts with almost no stimulative effect. * China, as a creditor rather than debtor nation with huge savings, can credibly be expected to continue its stimulus, while the US can’t.
. . . . Americans also want the Chinese to move to greater domestic demand,, to open up the Chinese market to US investment (because American companies desperately want to be able to invest in a country with real growth prospects, rather than the US) and to start buying more US goods. This requires letting the Chinese currency appreciate against the US dollars and is needed long run for American health. But in the shorter term it leads to a fiscal crisis. If America doesn’t want to increase taxes to pay for its own spending, how can China buy less treasuries and US assets and thus allow the Yuan to appreciate? And why should they, when right now in exchange for money the Chinese can afford to lose and crappy consumer goods, the US is exporting its industrial base to China? An industrial base is worth any price. Americans, with their unwillingness to tax themselves, aren’t willing to pay for the American industrial base. The Chinese are.
Why can’t we get a good healthcare bill?
Because the US is a debtor nation, and China isn’t willing to pay for Americans to have healthcare.
Walsh concludes that
. . . one side of the relationship is getting a lot more out of it than the other one and every year the Chinese need America less, and America needs China more.
And in a comment, Walsh writes;
Americans are going to find that the rest of the world is not willing to lend to them forever, just until they’ve extracted as much value as they can get and until the Chinese economy hits internal demand ignition.
At that point, the US gets to experience what the Russians did in the 90’s, but won’t handle it nearly as well.
It's too successful. They were hoping that it was going to become of the other programs that get no where, suddenly people want to use it and BAM! They set up a wall around the 950 million
I wrote a post, have a say on say on pay, which did get reasonable reads on EP, ...but the reality is the House Finance Services committee passed a "do nothing" bill which enables corporations, board of directors to completely ignore shareholders on their opinion of executive pay.
and even then, believe this or not, they are saying this very empty bill will not pass the Senate.
So...of course we had all sorts of outrage earlier over AIG bonuses....
but few are talking about real structural reforms on either executive compensation or corporate governance.
So....to drum up some public awareness, I decided to cross post some of this over at the big orange.
So....guess what? I didn't even get a "tip jar" hit and people didn't even address the topic at hand and the few comments talk about progressive personal tax structure!
So, HuffPo also had a couple of posts on this...and there too, only a few comments!
Meanwhile, all day long we've had nothing but what beer so and so is drinking and is hat PC or not? Oops, it's "foreign" beer and blah, blah...
and then I turn to CNBC to hear how we don't need any regulatory reforms, we have plenty and they just "missed this one".
AAARGGGHH!!! So, it's like we cannot get the public focus to even understand these issues, never mind adopt them is what I got out of today.
I mean how are we going to get the much needed policy reforms if first, you cannot even get anything out of a Democratic laden committee or people to even care...
never mind the GOP corporate bogus wall to try to kill any attempt to break up the financial oligarchy or at least makes these glorified feudal lords act more in the interests of the state.
In addition, this is TARP funds and some of these, Citigroup are being estimated to never repay this money...which means taxpayers just paid these bonuses, assuredly. BoA is still a possible as well.
While I believe that the exchange rate is a problem, the real problem is that the United States has a lack of willingness to restrict trade to the public good instead of to private profit.
There are a lot of winners right here in the United States who depend on that trade imbalance- including a few companies whose trade with China exceeds that of many other nations.
The only real way to stop this is to insist on balanced trade agreements; no imports without exports in 100% equal amounts. And that means removing international trade from the free market; every trade must be applied for and approved by US Customs instead. Importers will have to buy from US Customs, Exporters will have to sell to US Customs, foreign businesses will have to deal with US Customs, ONLY.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
I thought this was interesting. Simon Johnson over at the baseline scenario is taking about curbing capital inflows to feed growth, particular in China.
Much more likely is what is now being whispered about in the corridors of financial power – begin to consider ways to tighten capital controls, i.e., limit the amount of capital that can come into a country, or force investors to commit to stay in the country for longer periods of time.
Such capital controls are unlikely to be announced explicitly, but watch for tightening the rules around inflows. And expect discussion increasingly at the level of the G20 about the extent to which various kinds of capital controls can now be considered “best practice.”
It's a fact based site, with both feet in economic theory and analysis. That's the difference.
I just put up a post on the Yuan peg to the dollar affecting the trade deficit. This is, in fact, a major "conservative" issue...it is the paleo-conservatives esp. who have jumped on the China peg to the dollar.....
I'm pointing to some facts, studies that show they are right...again, from some recent, very good analysis from those cats who are real economists and what their recent findings are.
Econ is a science. It's a soft science quite often but it is a science.
and frankly, I don't think it was one of Grayson's finer moments. I do not understand, well enough, what the entire exchange swaps is for or if a dollar deflation would even be correlated to comment, so I just left this entirely alone.
I'm just not willing to jump on the Ron Paul bus and think every single thing the Fed does is inherently evil, suspect, esp. when I can't understand international dollar demand, exchange rates and what those swaps really do.
Someone explain it all to me, great, but so far I don't get the big deal.
I mean it's pretty clear the Federal Reserve's actions, at least on the money market run did save the day, so, someone explain to me precisely how that half a trillion set of swaps was a taxpayer ripoff or devalued the dollar cause maybe I'm stupid, but I don't understand it.
it's not a trivial post, in fact it's a dynamite analysis, firstly because it's extracting data indirectly and secondly...because you rarely see anyone correlating unemployment stats to the trade deficit.
Blinder, yeah, this is what I mean why we have to be able to read the mathematics, be critical readers of Academic research/papers/studies and take each one on it's own merits.
Some of the assumptions, flaws, mistakes are so glaringly obvious, but you can only see them by reading the actual paper.
This is especially true of think tank "studies" and of course those "studies" go flying onto Congressional Staffers desks and then, of course, those staffers don't have time to read them, they simply take those "conclusions" as fact, when the paper itself is so flawed you scream how in God's name did this person get awarded a PhD????
This is a progressive economics only site. ANY variation or suggestion that there might be another set of values for judging events will be at a minimum ridiculed.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
"Now Rivlin is also with the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bretton Woods Committee.."
My apologies to Ms. Rivlin (I once saw her together with Judith Rodin, and got them confused.) It is Judith Rodin who is with the Rockefeller Foundation and listed as a member of that Bretton Woods Committee.
We've picked up some followers and all of this is new to me, so anyone viewing EP from their mobile phone or wants more features to do EP mobile, please let me know and leave a comment.
Myself, I have a super thin laptop which I use for everything, including mobile, so I may not be aware of all of the issues as I modify the site for mobile use.
Help me out and let me know of any issues/problems/features!
Do you not remember my article here?
Remember, the unemployment rate in 1930 was 8.7%, a rate we've already exceeded. Just because we haven't hit the 1932 levels yet only means that we aren't 4 years into the New Depression yet.
Granted, things might not get that bad, but we don't know for certain yet. What we do know is that we are tracking the Great Depression very closely so far.
I noted all of the downward revisions as well in the GDP report (H/T NC) but keyword Depression?
I have to go back and look at those stats but it seems from the top of my head we aren't anywhere near those statistics...
That said, I also did a little digging and our complaint, which is the damn last recession, at least for the middle class never ended, i.e. a jobless recovery is not a recovery...and saw that housing was contributing 3.5% GDP!
That's outrageous to see the economy was being built on "hot air" from 2002-2007.
Need to dig deeper but I hesitate on keyword term depression.
which means as long as the posts are well done, well cited, credible, based in statistical and economy reality, anything econ, labor, trade related is of interest.
Yesterday I tried to drum up some awareness that the "executive compensation" bill was an absolute hollow gesture (and still GOP corporate reps. are trying to kill even that!) and it really was surprising how little attention I could get to that topic. I mean just two months ago they were all about to lynch AIG executives. Now it's a yawn?
Sigh, so yeah, policy is assuredly appropriate here (although space the posts out, don't want a flood in a few days for ex. so other people's stuff is seen and read).
Good to know. I'm still learning about how this blog works.
Yeah, I'm definitely more of the policy blogger than the economics analysis blogger - in no small part because I'm a policy historian by training, and only an extremely amateur economics reader.
I also have a bit of a backlog of stuff I should cross-post here in that it fits in with the "economic populist" angle.
the biggest thing on EP is the promotion/demotion system to keep high quality content to the front page. but in terms of ratings and so on, it's used as a feedback to let people know we read their comment and we like it or whatever, but it's not like DK ...which can be used "as a weapon".
Be assured, you'll get readers.
I guess I"m the "policy/legislative" blogger on EP, some are more pure economics analysts, some finance and I have numerous posts on policy change, great ideas as I dig into them on here.
I'll have to get back to you but overall getting the focus on sound, good policy (we're not so partisan though, we're officially an "all things econ" site) is so needed!
Yesterday I watch "beer" and claims we don't need any financial regulatory reform because oopsy, our regulators "just missed it" and the actual regulatory laws, structures "aren't really a problem".
So, we have an out of sight, out of mind situation going on ...
is sacrificing the U.S. production economy simply because oh tisk, tisk, they are worried about crashing the China economy...ya gotta wonder who do these politicians represent? and on top of it, come on, "all we need to do" is change the culture of 1.3 billion people who are a bunch of savers?
We simply should not worry about what China is doing and start worrying about what America is doing. Let China worry about China.
While I am not as well versed in these issues, I have always been interested in seeing how gold, the main asset class that the US government does not want to see higher, acts during these volatile economic times. I do find it interesting that the volatility of the Gold Price
has declined so much this year. I guess it is just difficult to predict the short term movements and relationships of gold and currencies.
And if you like what you read, check out The Realignment Project. We've got a lot more good stuff. Incidentally, we're also looking for contributing writers, so if you have stuff you've written/would like to write about "big ideas," long-term thinking about the future of progressive politics and policy, and the like, send me a line.
Ian Walsh has some interesting things to say about US-China economic relations on his blog this past week:
Walsh concludes that
And in a comment, Walsh writes;
It's too successful. They were hoping that it was going to become of the other programs that get no where, suddenly people want to use it and BAM! They set up a wall around the 950 million
I wrote a post, have a say on say on pay, which did get reasonable reads on EP, ...but the reality is the House Finance Services committee passed a "do nothing" bill which enables corporations, board of directors to completely ignore shareholders on their opinion of executive pay.
and even then, believe this or not, they are saying this very empty bill will not pass the Senate.
So...of course we had all sorts of outrage earlier over AIG bonuses....
but few are talking about real structural reforms on either executive compensation or corporate governance.
So....to drum up some public awareness, I decided to cross post some of this over at the big orange.
So....guess what? I didn't even get a "tip jar" hit and people didn't even address the topic at hand and the few comments talk about progressive personal tax structure!
So, HuffPo also had a couple of posts on this...and there too, only a few comments!
Meanwhile, all day long we've had nothing but what beer so and so is drinking and is hat PC or not? Oops, it's "foreign" beer and blah, blah...
and then I turn to CNBC to hear how we don't need any regulatory reforms, we have plenty and they just "missed this one".
AAARGGGHH!!! So, it's like we cannot get the public focus to even understand these issues, never mind adopt them is what I got out of today.
I mean how are we going to get the much needed policy reforms if first, you cannot even get anything out of a Democratic laden committee or people to even care...
never mind the GOP corporate bogus wall to try to kill any attempt to break up the financial oligarchy or at least makes these glorified feudal lords act more in the interests of the state.
In addition, this is TARP funds and some of these, Citigroup are being estimated to never repay this money...which means taxpayers just paid these bonuses, assuredly. BoA is still a possible as well.
While I believe that the exchange rate is a problem, the real problem is that the United States has a lack of willingness to restrict trade to the public good instead of to private profit.
There are a lot of winners right here in the United States who depend on that trade imbalance- including a few companies whose trade with China exceeds that of many other nations.
The only real way to stop this is to insist on balanced trade agreements; no imports without exports in 100% equal amounts. And that means removing international trade from the free market; every trade must be applied for and approved by US Customs instead. Importers will have to buy from US Customs, Exporters will have to sell to US Customs, foreign businesses will have to deal with US Customs, ONLY.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
From HuffPo:
Citigroup - $5.33 billion
BoA - $3.3 billion
oh yeah, that's pay based on performance....right o!
I thought this was interesting. Simon Johnson over at the baseline scenario is taking about curbing capital inflows to feed growth, particular in China.
It's a fact based site, with both feet in economic theory and analysis. That's the difference.
I just put up a post on the Yuan peg to the dollar affecting the trade deficit. This is, in fact, a major "conservative" issue...it is the paleo-conservatives esp. who have jumped on the China peg to the dollar.....
I'm pointing to some facts, studies that show they are right...again, from some recent, very good analysis from those cats who are real economists and what their recent findings are.
Econ is a science. It's a soft science quite often but it is a science.
and frankly, I don't think it was one of Grayson's finer moments. I do not understand, well enough, what the entire exchange swaps is for or if a dollar deflation would even be correlated to comment, so I just left this entirely alone.
I'm just not willing to jump on the Ron Paul bus and think every single thing the Fed does is inherently evil, suspect, esp. when I can't understand international dollar demand, exchange rates and what those swaps really do.
Someone explain it all to me, great, but so far I don't get the big deal.
I mean it's pretty clear the Federal Reserve's actions, at least on the money market run did save the day, so, someone explain to me precisely how that half a trillion set of swaps was a taxpayer ripoff or devalued the dollar cause maybe I'm stupid, but I don't understand it.
it's not a trivial post, in fact it's a dynamite analysis, firstly because it's extracting data indirectly and secondly...because you rarely see anyone correlating unemployment stats to the trade deficit.
Blinder, yeah, this is what I mean why we have to be able to read the mathematics, be critical readers of Academic research/papers/studies and take each one on it's own merits.
Some of the assumptions, flaws, mistakes are so glaringly obvious, but you can only see them by reading the actual paper.
This is especially true of think tank "studies" and of course those "studies" go flying onto Congressional Staffers desks and then, of course, those staffers don't have time to read them, they simply take those "conclusions" as fact, when the paper itself is so flawed you scream how in God's name did this person get awarded a PhD????
At least that's what I say to myself.
As I keep doing.
This is a progressive economics only site. ANY variation or suggestion that there might be another set of values for judging events will be at a minimum ridiculed.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
"Now Rivlin is also with the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bretton Woods Committee.."
My apologies to Ms. Rivlin (I once saw her together with Judith Rodin, and got them confused.) It is Judith Rodin who is with the Rockefeller Foundation and listed as a member of that Bretton Woods Committee.
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