Sorry, it simply is not. One of the points of this site is for those of us who have econ from undergrad., grad. but this isn't our actual career area, to utilize that knowledge, education in writing about economic issues...

So trying to claim one must "get religion" to understand econ to me implies someone doesn't have much of a clue on the entire subject area of economics and that is seriously taking this site from it's real purpose...which is to get those who have economics study to use it, and those who don't...to go and get some and start learning.

The point of the site is we have really bad economic policy threaded throughout the U.S. which is destroying the U.S. middle class.

This post is simply that the Pope wrote an economics piece so that is simply a religious figure, taking on the topic of economics and the piece itself is based on a lot of economic statistical facts going on...

but just because a religious figure writes about econ does not mean econ requires religion. That's not the nature of the science.

Exactly!

"Why would she say something like that? Because $400 Billion in commercial real estate debt is coming due this year, and since prices have fallen about 24% since 2007, the chances of refinancing most of it are slim at best."

And that $400 billion is super-leveraged in the form of CLOs, etc., to the tune of who-knows-how-many trillions?

This Goldman Sachs architected stimulus plan is pathetic, and even when more than the reported 15% makes its way out the door, it will have little or no impact whatsoever on an economy based upon financialization.

1. So? Exactly why do Green Shooters get to set all the time frames for how long we should look at indexes?

2. So you say. We shall soon see if that is true.

3. My bad. It was a misstatement. Nevertheless, you are including an early year spike in that 13 weeks. If you look at just the last couple months it is flat to down.

4. Glad you brought that up, because the seasonal adjustment has traditionally been for temporary closing. Now we have permanent closings. Get ready for a HUGE spike in UI claims later this year. How's that going to help your Green Shoots?

5. Who says that claims have peaked?

6. I don't consider manufacturing at a public industry to be a leading indicator.

7. A punch in the mouth is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, but neither is an indicator of good times to come.

8. We've never had a banking sector so weak as we do now. This could easily cause additional problems. For instance, the cost of corporate debt insurance is hitting multi-month highs.

9. They tell us something else too - that we are in uncharted territory.

I might suspect grants to fund research as not having financial motivations....oh yeah, the market can't work that way, right?

-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

in 3 months. This is a big problem. People are not ready for such extended long-term unemployment.

The questions is whether what will be the new level of structural unemployment. This may have huge socio-economic impact.

Obama’s Jobless Safety Net Torn by 48-Year-Old Rebecca Alvarez

1. Stock market is measured over 90 days as an LEI. Apr-June was up. May-July will be challenging and may be down.

2.Baltic Dry Index is down, mainly because Chinese stopped stockpiling and Oil tankers are coming to port. (Oil has fallen from $74 to $60 in the last month as a result)

3.Rail traffic was NOT down 19.7% in the last month. It was down 19.7% compared with the same month last year. A very lagging way of looking at rail traffic. It actually did decline slightly last week, but the recent 13 week trend has been up.

4. Care to post the non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the weeks surrounding July 4 for the last 5 years? In each case the July 4 week was up dramatically. This week it was up slightly. And funny, I don't remember hearing anyone say the initial claims number was "artificially high" during the Chrysler and GM plant closures. If you're going to make that claim, then you have to adjust all of the numbers -- with the net result that the 4 week moving average is virtually identical.

5. Continued claims tend to peak at the end of or just after the end of recessions. Since about 6 weeks ago, continued claims have been moving basically sideways. Post the graph for the last 3-6 months and it is easy to see.

6. Average weekly hours at private plants is down. Average weekly hours at manufacturing is sideways for the last ~4 months. That's the leading indicator, not your graph.

7. Housing permits are still declining, but the rate of decline looks less (for the first time in a long time). The best evidence we have is that housing starts didn't bottom until 1935 in the GD. So we can have growth even if housing starts haven't hit bottom yet.

8. Per Calculated Risk, CRE is the last aspect of real estate to turn, lagging personal real estate by about 6 quarters. A lagging indicator, no surprise that it is still tanking.

9. Your graphs of loans clearly shows that they bottom AFTER recessions end. That they haven't bottomed tells us that we didn't exit the recession a few months ago.

I have to leave for a few days. Have a nice weekend.

that's brazenly criminal if true.

There is one wild diary on DK which implies pure software manipulation if I'm reading this right.

GS flushed Quant Trading.

h/t yellowdog

I saw bonddad's post and esp. on Huffpo, oh boy is he getting rebuttal!

Maybe NDD will show up, I've fairly certain he's in the green shoots camp, although with a more realistic view this ain't gonna be no "V".

How about green shoots that are being choked with debt and globalization weeds? i.e. a massive mud puddle, that's my vote. Lots of seeds being planted, then drown out in a huge mess and why this debate is raging.