mickwd1
minuteman justice
As I will politely emphasize I am not affiliated with nor promote either of these groups' interests nor am I even familiar with their organizations. I am not certain what I may have stated that would have led you to be of the opinion that I did.
I do not have any opposition to limiting my comments to economic issues, which is precisely what I was addressing in my comment that apparently started this wastefull dialogue. You have made your point, without contest and without objection, but I would hope in the future that my pen name has no bearing on the content nor context of my economic comments, just as yours would not. May we please, put this issue to bed if you are in agreement?
I appreciate your time and insight.
Respectfully, sir
Today is the last day for money to change hands as a result of default swaps being triggered related to the Lehman filing, and it looks like the market handled it in a surprisingly orderly fashion. Collateral was adjusted and traded on a regular basis from the bankruptcy filing date forward, and, as a result, while a great deal of money still changed hands -- somewhere between $6- and $60-billion, depending on who you ask -- it currently doesn't look like any counterparty was made insolvent by its CDS-writing actions.
Does that make credit default swaps a non-issue? Far from it. But in my never-ending search for disconfirming data, the Lehman non-event -- so far, anyway -- is a useful data point to keep in mind the next time a default event triggers an unwinding
The market was all abuzz about these CDS settlements, so much they tanked the market. It's not know how bad these credit default swaps are and even when nothing happens the market reacts it seems.
Posted by AmericanGypsie | 10/21/08 07:41 AM EDT
California's subprime mess was partially caused by illegal alien mortgages.
So, replace more American citizens by cheap foreign labor and see if it helps.
Furchtgott-Roth is one of the brainiacs who got us in this economic disaster. She and her husband are members of the Hudson Institute who planned the current chaos. From 2001 to 2003 Diana was chief of staff and special adviser at the President Bushâ??s Council of Economic Advisers.
One of their partners, Benedict Roth's current focus is on the management of credit risk arising from derivative contracts.
Need I say more?
Are you in favor of more of this treason?
Tags: immigration, Wall Street, fraud, dirivitives, H-1B visa
The Minutemen Project and the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps. As already most politely implied, this site is on economics, trade, middle class issues and we will talk about illegal immigration, but only in terms of labor economics, wages and globalization.
There are people on this site with the entire spectrum of thought on this topic but I'd say the goals are all pretty much about raising up middle classes even when we may disagree on what does what. The site is about analyzing what does what but only from an economics viewpoint.
mickwd1
minuteman justice
Sir,
I am not quite clear on your assessment of "the minuteman". What is it exactly you perceive the "minuteman" to be?
FYI, minuteman justice is merely a "nickname" I use to blog with. If you perceive this nickname to represent something other, you, sir, are certainly off the mark.
Let me make myself quite clear to you if that is necessary.
My intentions are to comment only on the issues that appear on your site, and I believe that I have done only that, and that included nothing out of the context or outside the content that had already been written on the site.
If you misunderstood my intentions or meaning, due to something I may have authored on your site, then I apologize. However, that is not the case. On the other had, if you have insinuated that I or my insight may represent something unsavory, without first asking me, and with first clarifying your assumptions, I would expect an apology instead.
I hope to be able to offer some interesting insight to your site without further insult to the nature of my intentions or comments.
Thank you, sir.
Respectfully,
Minuteman Justice.
I've predicted the Argentina scenario for many years now: 1) Monetary deflation, and 2) Price hyperinflation.
Normally those two things are mutually exclusive. The reason why both things happened in Argentina was because the currency fell faster than the monetary deflation.
Now admittedly I could be wrong. Economic predictions are always tricky. But if I'm wrong it will be because the Fed manages to inflate the currency faster than the economy contracts, which will also mean hyperinflation because the currency will collapse in that scenario too.
The "deflation" you are observing isn't the classic definition of deflation. It's merely a drop in some commodity prices.
Also, I don't give the CPI much credibility for all sorts of reasons that I've listed here previously.
With that said, I expect some declines in the CPI in the coming months. But that will be overwhelmed by the monetary inflation in the pipeline from the massive bailouts all over the world.
OH, yeh. There is one part of the Argentina scenario that I haven't mentioned: 3) the government seizes people's retirement savings.
Obama and his followers are only concerned with those Americans who support him.
No one will ever accuse me of being an "Obamacan". Hell, I don't even plan on voting for him (I'll vote 3rd party, as usual).
With that said, I'm not sure how you came about to that conclusion. I've seen nothing in his statements and actions to support that.
As far as I can see, Obama is just a typical centrist Democrat. His concern isn't for everyone, or even for those who support him. Obama supports Wall Street, just like the Clintons and the Republican Party.
The St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base correlates well with M1 on a YoY basis. Both tell the same story of the Fed aiming a fire house of cash at the financial system, precisely to try to prevent a deflationary recession (or worse).
Keep in mind that the Euro, the Yen, and all or almost all currencies are not backed by anything other than the full faith and credit of their respective governments. Thus the ground is fertile for competitive currency devaluation.
Ultimately the firehose of liquidity will most likely give rise to a very inflationary "event" but I suspect the unwinding of the US credibility will take a generation rather than unwinding suddenly.
what they own is the derivative, just like insurance companies own the insurance policy.
shorts are a little more complex, but when they say "naked" shorts, which are supposedly illegal but not enforced, that's when the investor doesn't own the actual underlying stock, which is called a covered call.
Both work, just look at JFK, SR. John Kennedy took bootlegging profits and entered the stock market at perhaps the worst possible time by anybody else's estimation: 1933. That stunt ended up making him a bundle, and among his kids he had one President, a long-term Senator, an attorney general, and a variety of other super-successful people.
So while I disagree with you on deflation hitting main street- it's precisely when deflation hits main street that is often the best time to jump into the stock market with both feet. Prices on stocks at that point will have no place to go but up.
Minyanville is calling it a tug of war (in reference to gold prices but has some good info on money supply).
Both don't give timing estimates, including analysts also claiming that commodities should go through the roof, due to inflation and that seems to be key in the roller coaster ride.
Midtown: The "crash" of a couple of weeks ago was forced deleveraging, I agree with that. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the market bounce back significantly.
That being said, the decimation in the actual price of commodities is also quite real (as in, filling up the gas tank for well under $3/gallon).
We had a 4 month period of -1.1% deflation in 2006 coinciding with a 36% drop in the price of oil. Do you have an opinion about whether we will see more deflation in the CPI in the immediate months ahead?
Deflationists are a stopped clock. One day they will be correct, but you don't set your watch to them.
Hedge funds redemptions are rampant right now, and they will continue to be for several months to come. But commodity stocks are extremely oversold. The market action is reflecting a deleveraging action, not a deflationary action.
Just look at the P/E ratio of Google as opposed to Conoco/Phillips if you don't believe me.
When the forced sellers have finally left the market I'm going to jump in with both feet.
New Deal Democrat is awesome for writing contrary posts and the one he was most accurate one when everyone was saying he was completely full of it, was on oil dropping.
So, I agree with you but I have personally royally screwed up myself on the timing of when this is going to take place.
Stupid oblivious on hedge funds, speculators dumping and also now quite confused for most analysts are saying commodities will go through the roof, the increase in the money supply plus the deficit will cause massive inflation, and so on....basically what you're saying...is going to happen...
yet we have a compelling case from NDD on deflation too.
This is so schizophrenic, plus I think we have a rigged deck.
I agree, that was the turning point and when the Democratic party turned full-bore to Corporatism and lost the working class.
On the elitism, I've seen, from the partisan left, many posts on the new creative class and how they are all educated professionals....and why can't the working class understand (those stupid shits) at how great Obama is and on and on...
so I think there is a ring of truth to the elitism charge here.
For myself, I was posting comments over and over on how I was a member of the math class and why is it if people are so damn educated they could not read the actual policy positions, money behind the scenes, voting records and advisers? ;)
To this day what bothers me more is while NAFTA is now the rallying cry to say "dirty scum sucking bastards who sold us down the river", the focus is not more on the China PNTR...for the trade deficit, debt to China just blows away the issues with Mexico/Canada and NAFTA. Although NAFTA is the bad model for CAFTA-DR and so on...
but the killer bad trade deal is the China PNTR. Talk about a giant sucking sound....it's like the job vortex of black hole economics.
mickwd1
minuteman justice
As I will politely emphasize I am not affiliated with nor promote either of these groups' interests nor am I even familiar with their organizations. I am not certain what I may have stated that would have led you to be of the opinion that I did.
I do not have any opposition to limiting my comments to economic issues, which is precisely what I was addressing in my comment that apparently started this wastefull dialogue. You have made your point, without contest and without objection, but I would hope in the future that my pen name has no bearing on the content nor context of my economic comments, just as yours would not. May we please, put this issue to bed if you are in agreement?
I appreciate your time and insight.
Respectfully, sir
in September the total notional amount of outstanding derivatives in all categories rose 15% to a mindboggling $596 TRILLION as of December 2007
This is astoundingly large derivatives market.
Appears there is another settlement on Lehman CDSes:
Seeking Alpha
The market was all abuzz about these CDS settlements, so much they tanked the market. It's not know how bad these credit default swaps are and even when nothing happens the market reacts it seems.
Posted by AmericanGypsie | 10/21/08 07:41 AM EDT
California's subprime mess was partially caused by illegal alien mortgages.
So, replace more American citizens by cheap foreign labor and see if it helps.
Furchtgott-Roth is one of the brainiacs who got us in this economic disaster. She and her husband are members of the Hudson Institute who planned the current chaos. From 2001 to 2003 Diana was chief of staff and special adviser at the President Bushâ??s Council of Economic Advisers.
www.furchtgott-roth.com/aboutus.php
One of their partners, Benedict Roth's current focus is on the management of credit risk arising from derivative contracts.
Need I say more?
Are you in favor of more of this treason?
Tags: immigration, Wall Street, fraud, dirivitives, H-1B visa
The Minutemen Project and the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps. As already most politely implied, this site is on economics, trade, middle class issues and we will talk about illegal immigration, but only in terms of labor economics, wages and globalization.
There are people on this site with the entire spectrum of thought on this topic but I'd say the goals are all pretty much about raising up middle classes even when we may disagree on what does what. The site is about analyzing what does what but only from an economics viewpoint.
mickwd1
minuteman justice
Sir,
I am not quite clear on your assessment of "the minuteman". What is it exactly you perceive the "minuteman" to be?
FYI, minuteman justice is merely a "nickname" I use to blog with. If you perceive this nickname to represent something other, you, sir, are certainly off the mark.
Let me make myself quite clear to you if that is necessary.
My intentions are to comment only on the issues that appear on your site, and I believe that I have done only that, and that included nothing out of the context or outside the content that had already been written on the site.
If you misunderstood my intentions or meaning, due to something I may have authored on your site, then I apologize. However, that is not the case. On the other had, if you have insinuated that I or my insight may represent something unsavory, without first asking me, and with first clarifying your assumptions, I would expect an apology instead.
I hope to be able to offer some interesting insight to your site without further insult to the nature of my intentions or comments.
Thank you, sir.
Respectfully,
Minuteman Justice.
I've predicted the Argentina scenario for many years now: 1) Monetary deflation, and 2) Price hyperinflation.
Normally those two things are mutually exclusive. The reason why both things happened in Argentina was because the currency fell faster than the monetary deflation.
Now admittedly I could be wrong. Economic predictions are always tricky. But if I'm wrong it will be because the Fed manages to inflate the currency faster than the economy contracts, which will also mean hyperinflation because the currency will collapse in that scenario too.
The "deflation" you are observing isn't the classic definition of deflation. It's merely a drop in some commodity prices.
Also, I don't give the CPI much credibility for all sorts of reasons that I've listed here previously.
With that said, I expect some declines in the CPI in the coming months. But that will be overwhelmed by the monetary inflation in the pipeline from the massive bailouts all over the world.
OH, yeh. There is one part of the Argentina scenario that I haven't mentioned: 3) the government seizes people's retirement savings.
No one will ever accuse me of being an "Obamacan". Hell, I don't even plan on voting for him (I'll vote 3rd party, as usual).
With that said, I'm not sure how you came about to that conclusion. I've seen nothing in his statements and actions to support that.
As far as I can see, Obama is just a typical centrist Democrat. His concern isn't for everyone, or even for those who support him. Obama supports Wall Street, just like the Clintons and the Republican Party.
The St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base correlates well with M1 on a YoY basis. Both tell the same story of the Fed aiming a fire house of cash at the financial system, precisely to try to prevent a deflationary recession (or worse).
Keep in mind that the Euro, the Yen, and all or almost all currencies are not backed by anything other than the full faith and credit of their respective governments. Thus the ground is fertile for competitive currency devaluation.
Ultimately the firehose of liquidity will most likely give rise to a very inflationary "event" but I suspect the unwinding of the US credibility will take a generation rather than unwinding suddenly.
what they own is the derivative, just like insurance companies own the insurance policy.
shorts are a little more complex, but when they say "naked" shorts, which are supposedly illegal but not enforced, that's when the investor doesn't own the actual underlying stock, which is called a covered call.
Both work, just look at JFK, SR. John Kennedy took bootlegging profits and entered the stock market at perhaps the worst possible time by anybody else's estimation: 1933. That stunt ended up making him a bundle, and among his kids he had one President, a long-term Senator, an attorney general, and a variety of other super-successful people.
So while I disagree with you on deflation hitting main street- it's precisely when deflation hits main street that is often the best time to jump into the stock market with both feet. Prices on stocks at that point will have no place to go but up.
Why selling what you do not own isn't treating like any other form of selling what you do not own- as fraud.
....I can get it wrong. So...I withdraw my unjustified allegation; mainly on the strength of Robert's character reference.
Sirota has written some cogent analysis and is to be commended for that. He's just not interested in anyone else's real situation....
Just his own.
A typical Obamacan. Real progressives as I've pointed out before are concerned with 'Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone'.
Again, everyone.
Obama and his followers are only concerned with those Americans who support him. It really shows and brothers that's not the way to build a movement.
That's how Karl Rove runs....
You see this?
Oil, Gold headed higher from Seeking Alpha.
Minyanville is calling it a tug of war (in reference to gold prices but has some good info on money supply).
Both don't give timing estimates, including analysts also claiming that commodities should go through the roof, due to inflation and that seems to be key in the roller coaster ride.
Midtown: The "crash" of a couple of weeks ago was forced deleveraging, I agree with that. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the market bounce back significantly.
That being said, the decimation in the actual price of commodities is also quite real (as in, filling up the gas tank for well under $3/gallon).
We had a 4 month period of -1.1% deflation in 2006 coinciding with a 36% drop in the price of oil. Do you have an opinion about whether we will see more deflation in the CPI in the immediate months ahead?
Deflationists are a stopped clock. One day they will be correct, but you don't set your watch to them.
Hedge funds redemptions are rampant right now, and they will continue to be for several months to come. But commodity stocks are extremely oversold. The market action is reflecting a deleveraging action, not a deflationary action.
Just look at the P/E ratio of Google as opposed to Conoco/Phillips if you don't believe me.
When the forced sellers have finally left the market I'm going to jump in with both feet.
New Deal Democrat is awesome for writing contrary posts and the one he was most accurate one when everyone was saying he was completely full of it, was on oil dropping.
So, I agree with you but I have personally royally screwed up myself on the timing of when this is going to take place.
Stupid oblivious on hedge funds, speculators dumping and also now quite confused for most analysts are saying commodities will go through the roof, the increase in the money supply plus the deficit will cause massive inflation, and so on....basically what you're saying...is going to happen...
yet we have a compelling case from NDD on deflation too.
This is so schizophrenic, plus I think we have a rigged deck.
I agree, that was the turning point and when the Democratic party turned full-bore to Corporatism and lost the working class.
On the elitism, I've seen, from the partisan left, many posts on the new creative class and how they are all educated professionals....and why can't the working class understand (those stupid shits) at how great Obama is and on and on...
so I think there is a ring of truth to the elitism charge here.
For myself, I was posting comments over and over on how I was a member of the math class and why is it if people are so damn educated they could not read the actual policy positions, money behind the scenes, voting records and advisers? ;)
To this day what bothers me more is while NAFTA is now the rallying cry to say "dirty scum sucking bastards who sold us down the river", the focus is not more on the China PNTR...for the trade deficit, debt to China just blows away the issues with Mexico/Canada and NAFTA. Although NAFTA is the bad model for CAFTA-DR and so on...
but the killer bad trade deal is the China PNTR. Talk about a giant sucking sound....it's like the job vortex of black hole economics.
When all this finally washes out, I'm going to throw everything I have into commodity stocks.
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