ADP Employment Report - 206,000 Private Sector Jobs for November 2011

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 206,000 private sector jobs in November. October 2011 was revised up from 110,000 to 130,000. In October, the BLS reported 104,000 private sector jobs. Below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP. This report does not include government, or public jobs.



ADP's numbers claim the service sector created 178,000 jobs while the goods sector gained 28,000 jobs. The manufacturing contraction tab is +7,000 jobs for the month, which negates ADP's last month 7,000 drop in manufacturing jobs. ADP's financial services jobs increased 7,000 jobs, a rare showing. This report, if it matches Friday's official unemployment report, would finally be some good job growth, above the estimated 80-200 thousand jobs needed per month to keep up with population increases.

Construction just came alive, 16,000 jobs and the most new jobs since November 2006.

ADP captures jobs by business size and this is worth looking at, especially due to it's relativity within the same report (and methods). In November:

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 12,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 84,000 in November. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 110,000.

Below is the graph of ADP private sector job creation breakdown of large businesses (bright red), median business (blue) and small business (dark red). For large business jobs, the scale is on the right of the graph. Medium and Small businesses scale is on the left.


ADP large, medium, small private sector jobs


This is the same result, month after month. Large business, who lobby Congress for their bad trade deals, more offshore outsourcing through foreign guest worker importation and labor arbitrage, yet these same businesses are non-existent for hiring Americans. Notice how large businesses have been declining and the pattern starts just about the time offshore outsourcing and the China PNTR came into effect. Small businesses, on the other hand, have increased employment. May I suggest that small businesses are not international, they are not signing offshore outsourcing contracts and moving jobs to India and China. Multinationals, on the other hand, the below decade trend line clearly shows these so called U.S. corporations have abandoned the U.S. worker, on whole.

There is a strong mismatch between ADP and the BLS jobs report, although recently the two are converging. To date, the number of private nonfarm payroll jobs ADP reports versus what the BLS reports and on a month-to-month and even cumulative basis do not match. This monthly error is often large, especially when looking at small job growth overall (< 400,000 jobs per month) on a month to month basis. The monthly reported BLS jobs is often within their survey 100,000 payrolls margin of error.

Below is the cumulative difference between what the ADP reports as the private nonfarm payroll jobs vs. the BLS (ADP minus BLS). This line shows the divergence, over time in number of nonfarm private payroll jobs reported between the two reports. The difference seems to be stabilizing around 400,000. This article will be updated with the November BLS payrolls data.




While ADP notes a simple correlation of 0.95, well, a 5% error between monthly reported jobs numbers is an average, and we can see on some months the differences are quite large and around 2008, the difference started to hit about 900,000 jobs. That said, the reported job growth is so piss pour, statistically we're rolling around in the margin of error each month.

ADP does use the same seasonal adjustment as the BLS, but their other methodology and even sampling size are different, proprietary. That said, ADP has now put up some details of their methodology to explain the statistical differences between their estimate, the actual mathematics, vs. the BLS. This is new, and good ADP is disclosing their entire methodology so we may get more apples to apples comparisons of the two reports.



Regardless, this is the best private sector jobs report since December 2010. The BLS November payrolls statistics will be released on Friday.

Here is the October 2011 ADP private sector jobs report overview, unrevised.

Subject Meta: 

Forum Categories: