China: still booming or crashing?

A few months ago I asked "Is China's bubble bursting?" Here's a brief update, from Bloomberg today:

China's economy probably expanded at the slowest pace in almost four years in the third quarter .... Gross domestic product grew 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
Growth is slowing across Asia, where Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter and Singapore has tumbled into a recession.
Export orders fell to the lowest since 2005 in the third quarter ..... More than 3,600 Chinese toy exporters, about half of the total, closed in the first seven months of this year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

Housing prices in Shanghai fell 19.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to real estate broker Savills Plc.

We know that the Baltic Dry Index, the price quoted for international shipping, has plunged. We know that container traffic coming into the West Coast ports has also slowed.

Unless China's growth is primarily coming internally rather than from exports, it is hard to see how China cannot also be crashing.

Subject Meta: 

Forum Categories: 

9.7% is slow?

I find this concern that china is slowing to a measly 9.7% growth humorous

As long as their labor is cheap, regulations lax and currency manipulated I see no crash or reduction in the amount of imported chinese crap and US jobs outsourced.

if anything I think we will start to see some further acceleration in offshoring and increased trade deficits with china



You believe Chinese economic statistics???

What I find humorous is people who badmouth US government statistics, but take Chinese government statistics at face value.

In case it wasn't clear from my post, I suspect that China's economy, after the Olympics, has probably slowed to a crawl.

How can anyone believe any

How can anyone believe any staitistics from china - a closed authoritarian govt? I would believe them even less than our own manipulated statistics

I think these attempts however to write a premature obituatuary for the china economy as largely exaggerated, and yet another feel good cover for the pro globalist forces

Fair enough

I am posting China-related stories solely for their impact on what is likely the first global recession in over 30 years.

Until recently, Wall Street was talking about Asia, and specifically China, "de-coupling" from the US. That's not what I see at all.

not at all. If anything I

not at all.

If anything I think we will be seeing an accelleration of offshoring and imports as the US economic continues to sink

A complete vicious circle