Firstly, Commercial Real Estate delinquencies jumped in Q2 2009.
The delinquency rate on loans for 30 days or more held in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 2.04 percentage points to 3.89 percent between the first and second quarters.
Then, the projected default rate, according to Bloomberg will be 5.4%.
The default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks will rise to 5.4 percent in 2011, the highest since at least 1992, as banks anticipate more losses amid falling rents, according to Real Estate Econometrics LLC.
The property research firm increased its projected default rates for 2009 to 2011 amid declining occupancies and incomes at hotels, shopping malls and office buildings.
Defaults will rise to 4.2 percent this year and 5.3 percent next year before peaking at 5.4 percent in 2011, the New York- based firm said. Previously, it estimated rates of 4.1 percent this year, 5.2 percent next year and 5.3 percent in 2011.
It looks like this will hit small and mid-size banks the hardest:
For institutions with more than $10 billion in assets, commercial real estate concentrations are 9.5 percent of net loans, while those with less than $10 billion in assets, concentrations surpass 20 percent, the study said.
At 28.4 percent, exposure to commercial real estate is highest for institutions with $100 million to $1 billion in assets.
Don't worry, all of those banks which really run the economy are too small to worry about, regardless on how they all add up to the total market share. (sic).