First-time home buyer tax credit

The pending home sales numbers shot up today. But like the cash-for-clunkers program effecting the ISM numbers, another expensive federal program is boosting these numbers.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7.
NAR estimates that about 1.8 to 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit this year, with approximately 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit.

It makes me wonder two things:

1) If these 350,000 home sales wouldn't have happened at all without this program, then how likely will these people be of defaulting on their mortgages in the near future?

2) How much of the remaining 1.5 million first-time home buyer purchases are simply moving future demand up to the present?

Note: This first-time home buyers program ends at the end of November, but to take advantage of it you must have your paperwork in by the start of October.

Subject Meta: 

Forum Categories: 

Calculated Risk as well as Ritholtz are saying "not over"

they are calling more regional home bottoms, to lack of a better term but they are also pointing to that $8k home credit, the massive number of investors, distressed sales and CR at least is expecting prices and sales to go lower in the fall.

Then, it does seem some regional markets are lagging in terms of their own "crash and burn". For example, in Oregon, with the 2nd highest unemployment rate....
now regions, such as Bend Oregon have crashed and burned and it seems now foreclosures are really on the increase but it hasn't quite deflated (my view) than say Florida, Phoenix or Las Vegas.

350k of 2M is about 17.5% of first time home buyer sales...

so what does that mean in terms of the aggregate number of new sales?

What percentage of new sales are speculators, investors vs. regular people buying for a residence?

And lobbyists are pushing hard for the extension