Initial Unemployment Claims Just Won't Budge - 387,000 for June 16th, 2012

Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on June 16, 2012 were 387,000. The DOL reports this as a decrease of 2,000 from last week, yet last week's initial claims were revised up, from 386,000 to 389,000, an increase of 3,000. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are stagnating, not declining as needed, as seen in the below chart.



The four week moving average is now 386,250, an 3,500 increase from last week's revised up, from 382,000 to 382,750, moving average. This is the highest four week average since the December 3rd, 2011. To see any sort of pattern, we need to look at the four-week moving average. Weekly Claims are always revised due to the time lag for individual states reporting their claims data. Additionally, the unemployment filings statistic is just a one week time window. Below is the four week moving average graph.



The magic number to show job creation is at minimum, below 375,000 initial unemployment claims, per week and the United States is above that number.

Below is the mathematical log of initial weekly unemployment claims. A log helps remove some statistical noise, it's kind of an averaging and gives a better sense of a pattern. As we can see we have a step rise during the height of the recession, but then a leveling where every week initial unemployment insurance claims hover around 375,000-400,000, a very slow decline, or fat tail with now another hovering around 385,000. We have a never ending job market malaise, we just cannot get initial claims to drop to the levels they need to be in order to really show some job growth. The recession ended officially in July 2009.



Below is the four week moving average, set to a log scale, from April 1st, 2007. Here we can see we still are not at pre-recession initial weekly unemployment claims levels. If anyone recalls, even before the Great Recession the job market was not so hot.



Continuing unemployment claims didn't budge, and we have large long term unemployed.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 9 was 3,299,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 3,293,750, an increase of 5,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,288,500.

In the week ending June 2nd, not seasonally adjusted, the official number of people obtaining some sort of unemployment insurance benefit was 5,826,164. Officially, there are 12.7 million unemployed.

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But job creation continues apace overseas by "American" corps.

But Warren Buffett's Wells Fargo, the same Wells Fargo that laundered money for drug cartels, the same Warren Buffett that pretends to care for the little guy while having meetings with the Feds at top levels, while cutting great deals with other banksters at Goldman Sucks, is creating jobs per its announcement . . . IN INDIA AND THE PHILIPPINES! But surely these jobs will be created in addition to those in the USA, right? Silly American worker and students, you are expendable and those jobs are going overseas to cut costs while Americans will be canned! How's that for "job creators"! And this goes on and on and on. Oracle's Ellison buying 98% of a Hawaiian island? Sure, why not?!

Can the average American find a job to pay off a student loan and pay rent and maybe retire from a job (if he's lucky to find one that will hire him) at the age of 80 if there's actually a company that wants someone beyond 40? No, he's overqualified for a $10/hr. job and will likely be homeless. But hey, f' the average American. As long as Buffett and Dimon and Blankfein and the other banksters and CEOs control both parties, the average American amounts to JACK. These people literally will not change until they fear change because when the US economy can still find 400,000 people to lay off in 2012, things aren't getting better. When a 1%er cares so little about what will happen in 2012 that he can buy an entire island, and Wells Fargo, a $ laundering bank that caused an American's suicide last month over fraudulent foreclosure, can kill thousands more jobs, they don't have any fear. NOTHING WILL CHANGE UNTIL REAL ACTION IS FORCED ON THEM. June 2012 and these companies are still laying off people? I'm shocked anyone actually has jobs to be fired from at this point outside HR departments, corporate boardrooms, and government offices in DC and state capitals. 390,000 + people per week being laid off still?! Simply beyond belief.

Wells Fargo

Mega evil and I saw that announcement. We have various labor arbitrage events going on, such as Obama expanding the U.S. college educated displacement program, OPT, abuse of L-1s and so on, so I will try to do a round up of statistics on all of these things and write them up.

The fly by as press releases, 10,000 here, 500 here, 20k over there. They add up at a time we can least afford to lose even more jobs.