Initial weekly unemployment claims increased to 445,000 this week. Remember when on December 30th, Initial Jobless Claims dropped below 400,000? Looks like it was a fluke, an anomaly, as originally thought. Initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions.

From the jobless claims report:

In the week ending Jan. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000. The 4-week moving average was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.

That said, this is the release from **the previous week**, **not revised**:

In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 410,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 414,250. .

Every week, the previous weekly initial unemployment claims is **revised** and it's always revised to an **increase**. That's not a paranoid BLS conspiracy, it is because the numbers of initial unemployment reports from states **dribbles in**. So, last week was only revised up +1,000, to imply a change of +36,000 increase in weekly unemployment claims.

Regardless, this is the **wrong direction** for unemployment claims to go.

The 4 week average, now at 416,500, has incorporated in it the December outliner data point of a 388,000 weekly report, so now the 4 week moving averages isn't giving so accurate of a picture.

Below is the mathematical log of initial weekly unemployment claims, so one can get a better sense of the rise and fall of the numbers. A log helps remove some statistical noise, it's kind of an averaging. As we can see we have a step rise during the height of the recession, but then a leveling, not a similar decline. We have this yo-yo bobblehead, over 400,000 every week on initial claims, never ending labor malaise.

Below is a graph of the **percent change** in initial weekly unemployment claims for the last year. Look at how the numbers change bobs around zero, up and down, **like a yo-yo**.

Below is the 4 week moving average, set to a logarithmic scale to remove even more statistical noise, for the last year. Here a trend that is certain would appear. It looks like we have a start, but **keep your fingers crossed**, wait and see. Again, we need this metric to drop below 400,000 and keep dropping. **Numerous economists say the number is 375,000** to show job growth. We see a strong decline, but then again, hasn't everyone in America been fired by now?

Below is a 2 year view of the 4 week moving average, set to a log scale.

In the week ending December 25th, there were **9,193,838** official people obtaining some sort of unemployment insurance benefit. That's an incredible number and doesn't include all of the people who ran out of their benefits and still couldn't find a job, it's just the people getting *something* right now.

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