Philly Fed & Empire State Indices for January 2010

The Philly Fed Index for January 2010 came in at 15.2. Last month was 22.5. Anything above zero is factory expansion. This index is for the Philadephia Fed region.

 

The current new orders index, which has remained positive for six consecutive months, decreased 5 points. The current shipments index fell 4 points. The current inventory index, although still negative, increased 4 points, to its highest reading in 26 months. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times edged higher and are both positive, suggesting stronger economic conditions.

Labor market conditions have been stabilizing in recent months, and for the second consecutive month, the percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was higher than the percentage reporting declines. The current employment index increased 2 points, to its highest reading since February 2008. The workweek index fell back 2 points but has now been positive for three consecutive months.

The Empire State Survey for January 2010 was 15.9, up 11 points from last month.

The new orders and shipments indexes posted similar increases, and the unfilled orders index rose above zero. Both the prices paid index and the prices received index rose significantly, with the latter moving above zero for the first time in more than a year. Employment indexes advanced into positive territory. Future indexes were highly optimistic; activity and employment were widely expected to improve over the next six months.

For New York, in terms of investment the results seem to be similar to 2007 and most spending in I.T. (have fun with Windows!)

44 percent of respondents indicated that they expected to increase capital spending relative to its level in the past six to twelve months, while just 12 percent anticipated a decline. When the same question had been asked in October 2007, 42 percent of respondents had anticipated increased capital spending, while just under 19 percent had expected reductions.

Why these indexes are important is they can help predict, along with the ISM, future manufacturing growth, in particular job growth. The December manufacturing ISM was 55.9%. So, a slide in these indexes might imply a slide in the ISM for January.

Both surveys indicate a rise in their input costs.

On a different note, the Curious Capitalist took a survey on the most useless economic indicators. Mine would be initial weekly unemployment claims.

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