derivatives

The Copious Copula Blame Game

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Seems the infamous mathematical probability distribution function, the Gaussian Copula, is at the forefront of controversy once again. It seems those financial engineers, the Quants, the ones who use advanced probability and statistics to model financial markets, upon whose work many derivatives are based, knew the use of Gaussian Copulas was fundamentally flawed.

Jamie's Round Up

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rounduplassoThe Senate Committee on Banking held a hearing, A Breakdown in Risk Management: What Went Wrong at JPMorgan Chase? They had one witness, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

This one man apology show is about the $2 billion or greater trading loss JPMorgan Chase incurred due to speculative derivatives.

Truth be told the hearing was softball, not a grilling. This should be no surprise since JPMorgan Chase gives a lot of campaign contributions including those on the Senate Banking Committee.

Dimon revealed very little about the trade and not much more about his knowledge of it. He refused to discuss details of it, lest he reveal secrets to competitors -- who already know all about the trade and have been hammering JPMorgan on it, adding to the bank's losses. But the committee didn't challenge him on that, even after he turned down an offer to close the hearing to the public.

Bloomberg's story quote implies the Senators plain don't understand derivatives:

Saturday Reads Around the Internets - Swear Words Are Now Appropriate

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shocknews Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.

 

Corporations Park Over 60% of Their Cash Offshore

Large multinationals literally park 60% of their cash offshore. Don't let these facts argue for a corporate tax holiday. Cash would just be distributed to shareholders, not used to hire American workers or invest in America.

Large U.S. companies are holding at least 60% of their cash overseas with some keeping nearly all of their cash balances offshore, according to a study from J.P.Morgan accounting analysts published Wednesday.

In a review of disclosures, the bank’s analysts found that out of the $974 billion in cash on the balance sheets of 602 U.S. multinationals, at least $588 billion, or 60%, is sitting in foreign accounts.

“Foreign subsidiaries are becoming much more important in a lot of businesses, especially with companies that have substantial amounts of intellectual property,” JP Morgan accounting analyst Dane Mott told CFO Journal, noting that many of the companies with significant overseas cash stockpiles were in the technology and pharmaceutical industries.

J.P. Morgan found that Apple had the highest offshore corporate cash balance, with $74 billion held overseas, representing 67% of its total cash holdings. But as a percentage of total cash, J.P. Morgan said the company had a smaller amount sitting offshore than many of its tech rivals, including Microsoft, Cisco, and Hewlett-Packard, which had 89% or more of their cash overseas.

JPMorgan Say What?

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wallstreetWhat a surprise, that biggest fighter against financial regulation of them all, JPMorgan Chase accrued a $2 billion dollar loss:

The $2 billion loss came from a complicated trading strategy that involved derivatives, financial instruments that derive their value from the prices of securities and other assets. JPMorgan said the derivatives trades were part of a hedge, meaning they were set up to offset potential losses on the bank’s large holdings of bonds and loans.

black swanThat loss was caused by derivatives and credit default swaps and in part due to a Value at Risk model. This is the same type of model which was part of the financial crisis and has been warned about repeatedly for not being mathematically complex enough to base one's gambling debts on. No surprise a VaR model was behind the loss.

It produced large losses even without extreme movements in the derivatives markets or underlying bond markets.

Bank of America's Socialize the Risk and Reap the Reward Business Model

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boycott BoABank of America just made $6.2 billion dollars in record profit.

Buoyed by one-time gains from accounting changes and the sale of assets, Bank of America reported a $6.23 billion profit for the third-quarter

What were those accounting changes and sale of assets? It appears Bank of America moved Merrill Lynch derivatives to a FDIC insured subsidiary. Bloomberg:

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), hit by a credit downgrade last month, has moved derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with insured deposits, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.

The Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. disagree over the transfers, which are being requested by counterparties, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. The Fed has signaled that it favors moving the derivatives to give relief to the bank holding company, while the FDIC, which would have to pay off depositors in the event of a bank failure, is objecting, said the people. The bank doesn’t believe regulatory approval is needed, said people with knowledge of its position.

Weapons of Mass Destruction Build Up Post Economic Armageddon

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Remember those time bombs called derivatives which threatened to economically blow up the world in 2008? Not only were they never really regulated, they are back with a vengeance. A new report, by the Comptroller of the Currency, on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities, Q2 2011, shows derivatives have increased 11.6% from one year ago to a U.S. holdings of $249 trillion dollars.

Five large commercial banks represent 96% of the total banking industry notional amounts and 86% of industry net current credit exposure.

According to DealBook, those banks are, pretty much the same banks who were given massive bail outs via TARP. BoA especially is already in trouble due to their Countrywide holdings. 99% of all derivatives are held by just 25 banks.

The nation’s four biggest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs — are the biggest players, holding roughly 95 percent of the industry’s total exposure to derivatives. JPMorgan, which holds the most among commercial banks, carries some $78 trillion worth of derivatives on its books, according to the report. Citi is next on the list, with $56 trillion, up from $54 trillion in the first quarter.

Seeking Alpha has a good explanation of how the actual loss risks are much less than the frightening $249 trillion dollar amount.

Yet, the OCC report still shows a huge financial risk associated with derivatives:

SEC Bombs and Moody's Blasts

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spy vs spyKing of the Click Business Insider has alerted us all to an obscure comment on a proposed SEC rule for Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations. William J. Harrington, is a former Moody's Senior Vice President in the derivatives analyst group from 1999-2010. In Harrington's 80 page comment, he starts with this opening salvo:

Moody’s argues that RMBS committees could not have factored the collapse of real estate prices into their opinions, given that the scale of the collapse was both unprecedented and unforeseeable. This rationale is as unconvincing as it is disingenuous, for it pretends that Moody’s and other financial players were not designing and operating the conveyances that carried real estate prices to unsustainable levels in the first place. A roller coaster inexorably chugs up to stomach-turning heights before it hurtles downward, and both a carnival operator
and a thrill seeker understand the nature of the ride’s operations.

The rationale of “who could know?” is wholly undone through even a cursory examination of the actions of Moody’s and other financial players in the structured finance sector. Moody’s and other financial players took care to protect their earning should the real estate bubble that they were ushering into the world subsequently collapse.

An Economy Destroyed -- The Enemy Is Washington

Originally published by OpEdNews.com
by Paul Craig Roberts
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Recently, the bond rating agencies that gave junk derivatives triple-A ratings threatened to downgrade US Treasury bonds if the White House and Congress did not reach a deficit reduction deal and debt ceiling increase. The downgrade threat is not credible, and neither is the default threat. Both are make-believe crises that are being hyped in order to force cutbacks in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

If the rating agencies downgraded Treasuries, the company executives would be arrested for the fraudulent ratings that they gave to the junk that Wall Street peddled to the rest of the world. The companies would be destroyed and their ratings discredited. The US government will never default on its bonds, because the bonds, unlike those of Greece, Spain, and Ireland, are payable in its own currency. Regardless of whether the debt ceiling is raised, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase the Treasury's debt. If Goldman Sachs is too big to fail, then so is the US government.

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