Reuters published an item on a PIMCO report predicting a 2 - 2.5% increase in gross domestic product during 2017. I didn’t read the report (the item doesn’t have a link), as I was put off by the following excerpt:
Pimco, a unit of Allianz SE (ALVG.DE), characterized the world as "stable but not secure."
If you've been following my posts, you know that I've often attempted to estimate the revisions to GDP before the release. Robert has asked me to evaluate how I've done on those forecasts, which is what this post is about.
Friday’s report on our 4th quarter GDP was particularly interesting in that the inflation adjustments for large components of our national output turned negative, which meant that when the inflation adjustment was applied, what appeared to be lower or just modest increases in spending actually represented larger increases in goods and services procured, and hence indicated a larger contribution to our output than the nominal dollar amounts would lead one to believe. The
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