From Goldman:

We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting the wider-than-expected goods trade deficit. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.6%. [August 29th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points. [August 29th estimate]

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 August. ...

17-23 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-1.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$155.09 (-0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$101.38 (-1.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until the Fall travel period.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.7% year-over-year in July, down from 3.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 4.0% YoY in July, down from 4.1% in June and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 2.6%
Core PCE Prices: 3.0%
Core minus Housing: 2.9%

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025

Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The July PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6 percent YoY in June.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9 percent YoY, up from 2.8 percent in June.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were at expectations.
Inflation was at expectations.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August).

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% June. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.51% in July 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in June. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.49% in July 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10.0% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.4% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $443,000 today adjusted for inflation (48% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.5% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.7% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in June.

It has now been 37 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.4% Decrease in July

Pending home sales decreased by 0.4% in July from the prior month and rose 0.7% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. ...

Month-Over-Month
0.4% decrease in pending home sales
Declines in the Midwest and Northeast; essentially flat in the South; gains in the West

Year-Over-Year
0.7% increase in pending home sales
Increase in Midwest and South; decline in Northeast and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%. Residential investment was revised down from -4.6% to -4.7%.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 235,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 226,250 to 226,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 228,500.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 236 thousand from 235 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate.

• At 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.

• At 11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August.

Two weeks ago I wrote The Next Financial Crisis. I noted:

The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system.

Currently the most obvious non-regulated area of finance is cryptocurrency. And that leaves us with two choices to prevent this "financial rat poison" from leading to another financial crisis:

1. Keep crypto out of the financial system, or

2. Regulate crypto.

Keeping crypto out of the financial system could range from banning it outright, to just prohibiting financial institutions from holding or lending against crypto holdings (including mortgage lending). Unfortunately, the current administration has embraced crypto.

Regulation is the alternative. If crypto is an "asset", then it should be registered with the SEC (with quarterly filings). If it is a currency, the issuer should also be required to register with the SEC and provide quarterly updates on the amount in circulation, the mechanics of the scheme, and list all the backing assets. Then lenders could be allowed to the lend up to a percent of the backing assets.

For example, for Bitcoin, the original issuer should file quarterly with the SEC. If the backing assets amount to $0.01 per coin (just a guess), then lenders could lend up to a percentage of $0.01 for each Bitcoin.
These are the two choices to avoid a financial crisis.  

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in July.

There were several key stories for July:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through July, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for July since 2016).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026)

Sales at 4.01 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of July in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data.
...
More local data coming in September for activity in August!

There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 22, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400. Prospective buyers appear to be less sensitive to rates at these levels and are more active, bolstered by more inventory and cooling home-price growth in many parts of the country.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.69 percent from 6.68 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 25% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased after picking up a little recently with lower mortgage rates.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through June 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  
The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   
The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in February, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% (a -3.1% annual rate). This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 9.0% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.4% from the peak, and Denver down 3.7%.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from a 2.3% rise in the previous month. The 10 City Composite increased 2.6%, down from a 3.4% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month.

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight upward trend, rising 0.1%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index posted a -0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite Index fell -0.3%.
...
"June's results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.

"The geographic divergence has become the story's defining characteristic. New York's 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%). This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%). Tampa's decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2.0%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in June (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.6% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher From Long-Term Lows

After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell tacitly suggested a stronger possibility of a September Fed rate cut due to growing concerns about the labor market.

Now today, the market correctly mildly back in the other direction. The average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates moved back up ever-so-slightly (roughly 0.02%), but remain essentially in line with 10-month lows. [30 year fixed 6.54%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. The National index was up 2.3% in May and is expected to slower further in June.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ease in July as Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its July 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. The data shows that U.S. mortgage performance remains remarkably strong compared to pre-pandemic norms, marked by delinquencies declining on an annual basis.

“If you are looking for signs of a faltering economy, you won’t find them in July’s mortgage performance data,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “New delinquency inflows were down -13% from June and -5% from the same time last year, with the national delinquency rate improving on an annual basis for the second straight month, breaking what had been a 13-month streak of consecutive increases.”

Key takeaways from the ICE First Look include:

• National delinquency rate: The delinquency rate fell by eight basis points (bps) in July to 3.27%, a 9-basis-point improvement year over year (YoY) and still 58 basis points below its 2019 levels.

• Serious delinquencies: Loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure held steady overall. Also, while serious delinquencies are up 30,000 YoY, it is the smallest annual increase since November, as the impacts from recent wildfires and last year’s hurricanes continue to fade.

• FHA delinquencies: FHA loans remain the primary driver of stress in the market. While FHA delinquencies ticked down by 5 basis points in July, they are still 15 basis points above year-ago levels and now account for the majority (52%) of serious delinquencies nationwide.

• Foreclosure activity: Foreclosure inventory rose 10% YoY, with starts increasing annually for eight straight months and foreclosure sales up in each of the past five months. Even so, the national foreclosure rate remains 35% below pre-pandemic norms.

• Prepayment activity: Prepayments edged up slightly to 0.67% in July on a modest improvement in rates and are up more than 12% from a year ago.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.