Calculated Risk

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.9% Year-over-year

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 November
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. ...

27 October through 2 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

Occupancy: 60.8% (+1.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.99 (+1.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.22 (+3.1%)
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The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and finishing the year strong!

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.

Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range

Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024:
"It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. economy is performing. We're performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. economy, its performance has been very good."
From BofA:
Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker with the October retail sales print and Oct industrial production and Sep business inventories. [Current forecast 2.0%, Nov 8th]
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From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0% [Nov 5th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5. [Nov 7th estimate]

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024

A brief excerpt:
From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.92 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
MBA National Delinquency SurveyThe following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.49 percent in Q3 2023 to 0.45 percent in Q3 2024 (red) and remains historically low.
...
We will see an increase in 30-day delinquencies in Q4 due to the hurricanes.
There is much more in the article.