Individual Economists

10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My mid-week morning train Malvern reads:

The stock market looks wild under the surface: The S&P 500 appears relatively calm on the surface this year, but dig a little deeper and you’ll find some wild swings. Dispersion hiding beneath calm headline indices — sector rotations, factor volatility, and the growing divergence between what the S&P shows and what individual stocks are doing. Investors have retreated from the Big Tech names that carried the market in recent years, putting downward pressure on stocks. By the numbers: The S&P 500 has fallen just 3% for the year, but that masks some big-time. (Axios)

The Biggest Active Stock Funds Picked the Right Stocks. They Still Lagged: A hypothetical portfolio of the largest active US stock funds’ collective holdings would have beaten the funds themselves. (Morningstar)

Who ate all the Chinese stock market returns? Long-term nominal GDP is the stuff earnings are made of. And emerging-market economies grow faster than developed ones. Put these two facts together and the case for long-term allocations to EM equities has looked compelling. But no matter how compelling, it hasn’t really worked for a long time. And it has singularly failed to work for investors in Chinese stocks over the past 25 years. While the biggest global economic story of the last three decades has been the rise and rise of China, Chinese stock price performance has been . . . well, a bit rubbish. China got rich. Less so equity punters. The structural reasons why China’s economic growth has so consistently failed to translate into equity market gains for foreign investors. (Financial Times)

Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes: Cliffwater fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions. A deep look at how private credit vehicles are layering complexity on top of complexity — and what that opacity means for investors who can’t see what they own. (Wall Street Journal)

When the Best Retirement Is No Retirement at All: The 60-plus crowd is hard at work, and it’s not (just) about the money.The emerging research and personal accounts behind why staying engaged in meaningful work — on your own terms — often produces better outcomes than full retirement. (Businessweek)

• Congress Weighs Axing FINRA. But Is SEC Ready to Pick Up the Slack?: The case for eliminating the broker-dealer self-regulator — and the serious capacity questions about whether the SEC could absorb the workload. (The Daily Upside)

• America’s Diminished Place In The World: Techdirt’s Mike Masnick on how failure to check executive overreach earlier created the conditions for the current collapse of American standing abroad. (TechDirt) see also • The US Seems to Be Deliberately Weakening its Global Position: A careful argument that the pattern of damage to alliances, institutions, and credibility isn’t incompetence — it looks intentional. (Phillip’s Newsletter)

Florida Is Trying to Ignore Measles Until It Can’t: Florida ranks third in measles cases and the state’s response has been conspicuous silence—a public health strategy best described as “pretend it isn’t happening.” Oh, and the state is in the midst of an outbreak. (The Atlantic)

Is MAGA in its cringe era? Trump 2.0 was supposed to be younger and cooler than what came before. The vibes have shifted. Signs that the cultural coalition holding Trumpism together may be fracturing — the aesthetic and attitudinal shifts that signal a movement losing its grip. (Washington Post)

Ticketmaster’s Grip on Live Concerts Is Finally Starting to Break: Live Nation’s settlement with the Justice Department is a big step toward accountability—and cheaper ticket prices. (Slate)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Where rents are falling (or rising) most

Source: Axios

 

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

VDH: Our New Ungracious Immigrants

Zero Hedge -

VDH: Our New Ungracious Immigrants

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

The Traditional Immigrant

Silicon Valley was energized by legal immigrants from all over the world who founded eBay, Google, Nvidia, SpaceX, Stripe, Sun Microsystems, Tesla, Yahoo, and a host of others.

The Greek American Elia Kazan’s 1963 film America, America is a fictional account based on the Herculean struggle of the director’s uncle to immigrate to the United States from an impoverished and hostile Turkish Anatolia.

The film summed up Americans’ traditional view of immigrants: They had risked everything for the chance to reach America, and once there, became hyperpatriotic in their gratitude for the magnanimity of their new hosts.

An excellent example is the recently released memoir from Encounter Books, American Trojan, by former University of Southern California president and Cypriot immigrant Dr. Max Nikias. It resonates with thankfulness to America for offering him opportunities undreamed of elsewhere.

He and his wife arrived in the U.S. from war-torn Cyprus nearly penniless but determined to work hard, master English, and enrich the country that welcomed them with their talents and education. What followed was an amazing American trajectory that saw Nikias become president of the University of Southern California—arguably the most successful one in recent memory.

I grew up in rural California surrounded by hard-working immigrant farm families from Armenia, India, Japan, and Mexico. Their work ethic, love of America, and productive farms were models for U.S. non-immigrants. Such immigrants explained why the San Joaquin Valley was the most productive and richest agricultural region in the nation.

My own Swedish grandfather, disabled by poison gas while fighting on the Western Front in World War I, loved all things Swedish, but not nearly as much as his beloved America.

Four Hansons fought on the front lines of World Wars I and II. One was disabled, and another was killed on Okinawa. And all felt blessed that their parents and grandparents had gotten to America.

Gratitude and Ingratitude

But recently, something has gone terribly wrong with immigration—an open border, of course, but also a change in legal immigration as well as student visitors.

During World War II, Japanese Americans fought heroically in horrific conditions in Italy in the famous 442nd Regimental Combat Team and 100th Infantry Battalion—even as their families were interned in the Western United States. Few native-born Americans were more loyal or patriotic than the Japanese Americans.

And now?

While America is at war with Iran and de facto with its terrorist proxies, crowds of immigrants, visitors, and foreign students in New York scream anti-American slogans as they cheer on our enemies in theocratic Iran and its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Are we surprised, then, when Islamic terrorists begin hunting down Americans on our own soil?

On campuses today, thousands of Middle Eastern international students, mostly arriving from autocratic, tribal, and failed nations, have staged often violent demonstrations in the years following the October 7, 2023, massacre. They are not shy about cheering on the Hamas slaughter of Israeli civilians.

These pro-Hamas students have not just damned Israel but also often harassed Jewish Americans. They revile their host America and expect Americans to smile and shrug.

It is hard to determine whether such zealots hate the U.S. more than they love living in America and preserving their student visas and work permits.

Hating or Loving the Great Satan?

Take Dr. Fatemeh Ardeshir-Larijani. She is the daughter of Ali Larijani, one of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei’s murderous henchmen. He sent his daughter Fatemeh to the top schools in the satanic United States. She was eventually even hired as a professor at Emory University—at least until popular outrage at the Larijani family’s hypocrisy prompted her dismissal.

To our enemies in Iran, we may be the “Great Satan.” But Iranian theocrats apparently prefer their children and other relatives to study and get rich in Luciferian America. So, many send their kids to universities in the USA.

Another surreal example is the case of Mahmoud Khalil, who arrived on a student visa at Columbia University and soon led the “Gaza Solidarity Encampment.”

When the State Department sought to revoke his temporary visa, the Left made Khalil a veritable martyr. Apparently, his university supporters reasoned that the U.S. had an obligation to invite to its shores those who are active supporters of terrorists like Hamas.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a naturalized citizen from Uganda whose parents became public figures and multimillionaires in America, in the past has had little good to say about his adopted country.

His quite public wife, Rama, whose parents were naturalized Syrian citizens, illustrated a book that was rife with antisemitism. It’s no accident that after October 7, she posted “likes” of social media praise of the terrorist Hamas killers, who are sworn enemies of her own country.

Many Somali immigrants of Minneapolis repaid the kindness of Americans in welcoming them from war-torn Somalia by committing the greatest welfare fraud in U.S. history, which may reach $9 billion in theft. Their iconic representative, Ilhan Omar, has voiced antisemitic vitriol, downplayed 9/11, claimed the U.S. has a dictatorship worse than the one she fled, and said the U.S. was turning into one of the worst countries in the world. That is the thanks she returns for entering a hospitable America under controversial circumstances and dubious legality.

Hating—or Hating to Leave—America?

Stranger still is the attitude of visitors and illegal aliens when they finally face deportation.

Joe Biden allowed 10–12 million foreign nationals to illegally enter the U.S. during his tenure, among them some 500,000 known criminals. In the years since his inauguration, not a day goes by without news that illegal aliens of that era have murdered, assaulted, been arrested for felonious acts, or caused horrific auto accidents.

One of them was Kilmar Ábrego Garcia, an illegal alien from El Salvador, who long ago was ordered to be deported for his unlawful entry and residence.

Instead, he too became an icon to the Left when he was recently and belatedly facing permanent deportation. He had clearly ignored his earlier deportation orders, and was an alleged gang member, an often violent spousal abuser, and a human trafficker.

Ábrego Garcia apparently felt he had a right to enter the U.S. illegally. He successfully made a mockery of our immigration laws. But he presciently expected that soon hundreds of thousands of dollars of free legal help would come his way, ensuring he could stay in the country for which he showed utter contempt.

And in the U.S., one of the most bizarre aspects of recent protests against ICE efforts involved episodes of Mexican nationals waving the flag of the country to which under no circumstances they wished to return, even as they burned the flag of the nation in which they insisted they had an innate right to stay.

Our New Americans Killing Americans

Yet the immigration disaster transcends student visas and illegal aliens, since it extends to many naturalized citizens as well.

Consider the terrorist acts that have transpired in just the last eight days.

On March 1, Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized U.S. citizen originally from Senegal, shot up a beer garden in Austin, Texas. He murdered three people and wounded 14 others. Diagne wore a “Property of Allah” sweatshirt, along with an Iranian flag T-shirt.

On March 7, 2026, Emir Balat, the son of a naturalized citizen from Turkey, and Ibrahim Kayumi, the son of naturalized Afghan refugees, threw IEDs toward a conservative protest outside Gracie Mansion, the New York mayor’s residence.

The media sought to cover up their Islamist motives but could not, given that the two terrorists openly boasted of their aims. Indeed, the two bragged that they wanted to achieve something “bigger than the Boston Marathon bombing.”

That was a reference to Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the murderous Chechen-immigrant brothers. In 2013, they murdered three and injured hundreds at the Boston Marathon. Their aim too was apparently to further the so-called global “Islamic cause.”

This same week, on March 12, Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, another naturalized U.S. citizen, this time from Sierra Leone, went into an ROTC meeting at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Once there, he murdered the instructor, Lieutenant Colonel Brandon Shah, a decorated combat veteran. Jalloh shouted “Allahu Akbar” as he fired. Jalloh had previously been convicted for attempting to support ISIS but was released before serving his full sentence.

That same March day, Ayman Muhammed Ghazali, a naturalized U.S. citizen born in Lebanon, whose family in the Middle East currently has strong Hezbollah terrorist ties, drove his car rigged with explosive fireworks into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan.

Ghazali was killed by security guards before he could carry out his homicidal plan. Hezbollah, remember, in the past, butchered hundreds of Americans in Lebanon.

There is an endless list of illegal aliens and naturalized citizens who have killed hundreds of Americans, both as common criminals and as would-be jihadists.

And not all the killing is intentional. Thousands of driver’s licenses have been issued to both illegal aliens and legal residents from all over the world, including those who do not understand English, cannot pass a commercial driver’s test, and are utterly unqualified to drive. Is it any surprise that we have recently witnessed serial horrific crashes, where incompetent drivers rammed their 80,000-pound semi-trucks into unsuspecting drivers?

What Happened to Immigration?

So what made the U.S. adopt such a suicidal immigration and visitation policy—one that welcomes in millions illegally, hundreds of thousands who are known criminals, tens of thousands of students who despise the U.S., and thousands of terrorists themselves and their sympathizers?

In the mid-1960s, amid the Great Society’s dreams of transforming America, new immigration laws were passed that ended the older quota process. That traditional system tended to favor better-off immigrants from Europe and the former British Empire to reflect somewhat the founding demographics of the republic.

But the new law junked the prior merit-based system and instead admitted immigrants chiefly on the basis of family ties and the purported need of the host country for inexpensive labor—with most now arriving from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Suddenly, far less important for entry were critical skill sets, English mastery, high school diplomas, proof of self-support, and knowledge of, or familiarity with, the American system.

But in the subsequent 60 years, Democrats went even further beyond the 1965 Hart–Celler Act efforts to change the demography of the U.S. They began welcoming in anyone, legal or not, who simply crashed the border or claimed they wanted to study in the U.S. The old melting pot was banished, replaced by the “salad bowl.”

Immigration was seen by the Left as the answer to why they had never been able to complete their socialist agendas amid a skeptical American public. Supposedly, by welcoming in a “diverse” demographic, poor and without English fluency, they would grow the welfare state, creating a new dependent constituency.

The new immigrants and visitors were envisioned as left-wing voters-to-be who would look to the Democratic Party as their guarantors of open borders, a new entitlement society, and a criminal justice system that saw the perpetrator as a victim—and the real criminal as a racist America itself.

Diversity, the Immigration Force Multiplier

The new “diversity” ideology peaked under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The subtext of their open-borders nihilism was a new oppressor/oppressed binary.

It dictated that traditional America was still too white, too traditionalist, too Christian, too unfairly successful—and too hostile to the Democratic-socialist agenda of a mandated equality of result achieved through massive coercive government redistributive efforts.

Under this warped view, the criminally minded Ábrego Garcia became a victim of supposed “Gestapo” ICE “goons” (ironic, when patriotic and skilled Mexican American officers disproportionately staff ICE ranks).

The Tsarnaev Boston Marathon killers became “hot” underdog freedom fighters. So the supposedly sexy, photogenic young murderer Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was highlighted on the cover of Rolling Stone.

The more Mahmoud Khalil took on the mantle of an anti-American, pro-Hamas activist, the more the Left rallied to his cause.

When Major Nidal Hasan, the son of naturalized Palestinian immigrants, slaughtered 13 and wounded 32 fellow soldiers at Fort Hood, the Pentagon resisted efforts to tie him to the Islamic terrorist cause. That was hard to do, since he screamed “Allahu Akbar!” as he mowed down his fellow soldiers.

Then Army Chief of Staff George Casey responded to the mass murder with his lamentation on CNN that, “As great a tragedy as this was, it would be a shame if our diversity became a casualty as well.” He sought to quash any speculation about Hasan’s Islamic motives, in fear that the ensuing truth might endanger the Army’s diversity efforts.

Then we come to the case of Eileen Gu, the recent American Winter Olympic multi-medalist skier.

She was born in San Francisco to a Chinese immigrant mother and an American father and lived her entire life in the U.S. But Gu chose to compete in the games for communist China, despite its efforts to isolate, dehumanize, and eventually vastly “reduce” its Uyghur minority population.

Dr. Frankenstein and his Monster

The final irony: Why do so many criminals believe they can enter the U.S. illegally and get away with murder?

Is it because they feel contempt for any nation that opens its borders, requires no background checks, destroys its own immigration laws, and weaponizes its criminal justice system to make the criminal the victim and the state his victimizer?

Why do so many burn the U.S. flag while waving the flag of Mexico, a country they have no intention of returning to?

Is it because they sense they might be praised for “celebrating diversity,” as the popular culture would term such abject cultural schizophrenia?

Why would the Tsarnaev brothers repay the country that took them in by killing innocent Americans?

Would it be because, in their formative years in American schools, their teachers and texts emphasized what was wrong with a supposedly exploitative U.S.?

Why, in the middle of a near-existential war with Iran to stop its efforts to obtain nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the U.S. and its allies, would naturalized citizens feel so free to slaughter Americans for the cause of Islam?

Would it be because they sense from left-wing universities and popular culture that it is a virtual open season on Jews?

Or that any time an Islamic terrorist commits an act, a Democratic operative will warn America of “Islamophobia”—as if, say, mowing down soldiers at Fort Hood is the lesser crime?

Why would a rich, privileged Eileen Gu feel no discomfort competing for a murderous regime whose agenda is to displace her country from its global preeminence in favor of a communist dictatorship?

Is it because in our relativist modern America, Gu’s “truth” is just as meaningful as any other? And who, after all, is qualified to judge anything or anyone?

Who created our current Frankensteinian monstrosities?

We did.

We are the Dr. Frankensteins who asked nothing of immigrants, in a complete break from our nation’s past.

And we got our wish for a new, quite different class of immigrants, who treated the U.S. the very way they were taught to do by the Left: as an evil entity that deserved what it got.

And we sure have gotten it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 16:20

Bank Of America Settles Lawsuit Over Ties To Jeffrey Epstein's Sex Crimes

Zero Hedge -

Bank Of America Settles Lawsuit Over Ties To Jeffrey Epstein's Sex Crimes

Authored by José Niño via Headline USA,

Bank of America has reached a settlement with an anonymous woman who accused the financial giant of enabling Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operation and profiting from his criminal enterprise.

A Bank of America flies backward, emblematic of the financial institution's backward mindset in prioritizing woke political objectives over shareholder profits and financial health. / IMAGE: Wcnc Newsroom via YouTube

Lawyers for both parties informed a judge they had agreed to a “settlement in principle” according to court filings made public on Monday that The Financial Times reported. The proposed agreement contains undisclosed terms and awaits judicial approval at a hearing scheduled for early April. Bank of America declined to comment on the matter.

The woman filed her lawsuit in October of last year in Manhattan federal court under the pseudonym Jane Doe. She sought class action status and financial damages while accusing BofA of “participating in and financially benefiting from Jeffrey Epstein’s widespread and well-publicised sex-trafficking operation, as well as the direct financial benefits it received therefrom.”

According to her complaint, the plaintiff first encountered Epstein while living in Russia in 2011.

She resided in New York from 2011 to 2019 during which time the convicted sex offender abused her. The lawsuit alleged that Bank of America failed to file suspicious activity reports to law enforcement about questionable transactions “before it was far too late” and ignored red flags the bank had a legal responsibility to report.

“A review of Jane Doe’s account history will show incredibly alarming and erratic banking behaviour,” the initial complaint stated.

The anonymous woman described opening a Bank of America account in 2013 that Epstein and his accountant Richard Kahn allegedly used to pay her monthly rent.

This arrangement purportedly created documentation used to “defraud immigration officials.”

Kahn transferred $14,000 into the account immediately after it was opened and the plaintiff alleged it “continued to be utilised by Epstein and Kahn through Epstein’s death in 2019 for activities unknown and unexplained to Jane Doe.”

The complaint also described how the woman was added to the payroll of a sham company that paid her through one of her BofA accounts. Federal law requires banks to monitor money laundering and report suspicious activity while blocking prohibited transactions. Epstein’s sex offenses became public knowledge as early as 2006 and the financier signed a non-prosecution agreement with the Justice Department in 2008.

The lawsuit highlighted an “abnormal” $170 million payment that billionaire Leon Black made to Epstein from his BofA account for alleged “tax and estate planning advice.”

Black was scheduled to be deposed as a witness later this month according to court filings. He is not a defendant and his lawyer declined to comment.

Judge Jed Rakoff denied Bank of America’s attempt to dismiss the case just last month. The plaintiff had also filed a motion seeking class action status which could have substantially increased damages.

Boies Schiller Flexner represented the plaintiff. The firm previously secured settlements from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank in similar Epstein related cases.

Those banks paid $290 million and $75 million respectively to settle class action allegations from trafficking victims.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 15:40

$5 Diesel Means A 35% Jump In Prices For US Consumers

Zero Hedge -

$5 Diesel Means A 35% Jump In Prices For US Consumers

While US gasoline prices have risen substantially since the start of the Iran war (although RBOB futures suggest there is much more upside should oil prices remain around $100), the average price of diesel has already soared above $5 per gallon in the US, the highest since 2022, and pushing up supply chain costs and setting the stage for broader inflation for consumers.

The price spike is increasing costs for farmers, truckers and construction firms.

With diesel at $5 per gallon, these industries are on track to spending around $6.1 billion this week on the fuel, according to BloombergNEF forecasts.

The same amount of fuel would have cost just $4.5 billion ahead of the war, a 35% increase.

According to BNEF, road diesel accounts for roughly 66% of US diesel consumption, with large trucking fleet operators like Walmart and Amazon highly exposed to fuel cost swings.

The fuel also powers agricultural machinery, ships and trains hauling goods across the country.

The widespread use of diesel feeds into the cost of goods across the economy.

However, unlike gasoline, where consumers feel the pinch immediately at the pump, the higher diesel costs show up indirectly over time.

Rapidan Energy's Director of Refined Products, Linda Giesecke, offered insight into the diesel market:

Diesel prices have surged globally to levels last seen since 2022, when Russian exports were at risk. But unlike 2022, the current tightness reflects physical supply disruptions rather than policy risk and trade reshuffling.

Because of the Hormuz outage in the Gulf, global diesel prices are on track to average about $150/bbl this month. That's a 60% increase vs. February, vastly outpacing crude's 40% rise to near $100, with diesel's price risk skewed sharply to the upside – especially if Hormuz reopening takes longer than the early-April timeline we assume in our base case.

We have global diesel prices easing toward $120/bbl in April, but only if shipping flows begin to normalize. If Hormuz flows do not resume in the coming weeks and diesel prices remain at $150/bbl into the second quarter, global economic growth will suffer because of diesel's close link to industrial production and freight activity.

As the war on Iran extends into the third week and oil prices remain elevated, inflation pressure in the US will likely broaden beyond fuel and into consumer goods.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 15:20

Appeals Court Lifts Block On Expedited Third Country Deportations

Zero Hedge -

Appeals Court Lifts Block On Expedited Third Country Deportations

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

An appeals court ruled on Mar. 16 that the Trump administration could continue deporting illegal immigrants to places other than their native countries, without giving them a chance to protest against their destination.

“There is more work ahead on this important issue, but this is a key win for [President Donald Trump’s] immigration agenda,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said on X.

The 2–1 ruling by the Court of Appeals for the First Circuit paused a previous decision by Judge Brian Murphy of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, who ruled in February that the government’s policy was illegal.

Murphy’s ruling concerned two Department of Homeland Security memos, which said that if the United States had diplomatic assurances from a third country that deportees would not face persecution or torture, they could be sent there without any extra procedures.

“[The Department of Homeland Security] has adopted a policy whereby it may take people and drop them off in parts unknown ... and, ‘as long as the department doesn’t already know that there’s someone standing there waiting to shoot ... that’s fine,’” he wrote in his decision in February.

The Trump administration filed an appeal, asking the First Circuit to halt Murphy’s order, which it said “contains multiple serious legal errors.”

On March 5, it asked for a stay of that order while the case proceeds in court, noting that the U.S. Supreme Court had already halted Murphy’s previous rulings twice in this case.

Murphy noted the same thing in his ruling and said he would give the government 15 days to appeal before his order took effect.

“Ultimately, this court could be missing something in the final analysis,” he wrote.

In its filing, the Justice Department argued that neither courts nor immigration judges are allowed to “second-guess” the government’s conclusion about whether a country is safe or not.

“The district court’s order creates an unworkable scheme that materially impairs the ability of the government to enforce the immigration laws,” the DOJ wrote.

The case concerns a group of illegal immigrants that the government tried to deport to third countries in March 2025.

They sued, and Murphy blocked those deportations before the Supreme Court overruled him twice.

The First Circuit has given both sides a little more than a month to file briefs, after which time it will hear oral arguments on the matter.

The plaintiffs’ lawyer, Trina Realmuto of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance, said in a statement, “While the order, unfortunately, delays the restoration of our class members’ ‌statutory and ⁠due process rights, we are glad that the 1st Circuit ordered a swift resolution of the merits of the case.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 15:05

Warner Bros CEO To Collect $667 Million In Paramount Deal

Zero Hedge -

Warner Bros CEO To Collect $667 Million In Paramount Deal

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav will collect about $667 million in compensation after the entertainment empire completes its sale to Paramount Skydance.

President and CEO of Discovery Communications David Zaslav in Pasadena, Calif., on June 29, 2015. Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images

Last month, the company accepted Paramount’s $110 billion proposal, concluding a months‑long bidding contest after Netflix exited the talks.

One of the key beneficiaries of the merger will be Zaslav, who could pocket several hundred million dollars, according to a March 17 Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Zaslav is in line for approximately $34.2 million in cash severance, a package that includes salary continuation and bonuses tied to a change‑in‑control termination, the regulatory filing stated.

He would also receive $115.8 million in vested equity, along with $517.2 million in unvested share awards that would vest upon finalization of the sale.

Vested equity is stock or stock-based awards that executives have earned the legal right to keep. Unvested shares are shares that executives have been authorized to receive but have not yet earned the right to own.

The payout could also include up to $335 million in tax reimbursements. However, this figure will decline over time depending on when the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal is finalized.

Warner Bros. said this figure is based on tax‑code provisions “that are expected to cause it to significantly decline with the passage of time,” and noted that the tax payment would drop to zero if the deal closes in 2027.

Paramount anticipates the acquisition will be completed by the third quarter this year.

Ultimately, the filing states that these amounts may not be realized as they are “based on multiple assumptions that may or may not actually occur or be accurate as of the date referenced.”

The companies expect to hold a shareholder vote in early spring and are targeting a Sept. 30 closing, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.

Current shareholders could receive a 25-cent-a-share “ticking fee” for each quarter the acquisition does not close, totaling approximately $650 million. Additionally, Warner Bros. would receive a $7 billion termination fee if the merger is not authorized due to regulatory pushback.

Paramount paid Netflix a $2.8 billion termination fee in February after Warner Bros. terminated its agreement with the streaming service.

The film and television studio agreed to pay $31 per share in cash to purchase 100 percent of Warner Bros.’ shares. The deal will be funded by $47 billion in equity, backed by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners. Additionally, the purchase includes $54 billion of debt commitments from Apollo, Bank of America, and Citigroup.

A water tower at Paramount Studios in Los Angeles on Dec. 8, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Since landing on the winning side of the hostile takeover efforts, Paramount’s shares have declined about 25 percent to below $10. Conversely, Netflix stock has rebounded about 16 percent, potentially targeting $100.

Regulatory Hurdles

Whether it was Netflix or Paramount buying Warner Bros., the merger was likely to face pushback from a growing chorus of U.S. lawmakers.

In a March 12 letter, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.), and 11 other members of Congress demanded that the Department of Justice and the Treasury Department investigate antitrust and national security concerns related to the merger.

Congress has a responsibility to ensure that merger enforcement in concentrated creative industries—particularly transactions involving substantial foreign capital—is conducted rigorously and in strict adherence to federal law,” the letter states.

“The structural reduction in independent studios, the Pay-1 foreclosure risks, and the downstream impact on exhibitors warrant thorough and transparent review.”

But the purchase may not receive heightened scrutiny from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told CNBC earlier this month that the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal was “cleaner” than the Netflix alternative.

There’s a lot of concerns when Netflix was the potential buyer there. That particular combination raised a lot of competition concerns,” Carr said on March 3.

“If there’s any FCC role at all, it’ll be a pretty minimal role. And I think this is a good deal, and I think it should get through pretty quickly.”

It remains to be seen whether the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States—also known as CFIUS—will object to the deal. Paramount’s offer includes about $24 billion from Gulf state sovereign wealth funds.

Kimberly Hayek and Jill McLaughlin contributed to this story.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 14:25

Trump Signs Order Assigning Vance To Head Anti-Fraud Task Force

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Trump Signs Order Assigning Vance To Head Anti-Fraud Task Force

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 16, officially creating an anti-fraud task force headed by Vice President JD Vance, a job that could be one of the most important in the country, the president said during an Oval Office signing ceremony.

Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson will serve as co-chair of the task force alongside Vance, Trump said, calling both men “extremely brilliant and just very talented.”

Their work could return hundreds of billions of dollars to American taxpayers, Trump said.

Officials have estimated that fraudsters steal up to $300 billion per year from government programs across the nation.

“This is a very big thing that we’re doing,” the president said.

“The kind of money we’re talking about is country-changing.”

Referring to Ferguson and Vance, Trump said, “If you guys can’t do it, we’ve got a problem—because nobody else will be able to do it.”

The executive order formalizes an announcement that Trump made during his Feb. 24 State of the Union address, when he announced that Vance, who is a lawyer, would spearhead a “war on fraud” for the White House.

Trump said fraud would be targeted “wherever it’s taking place” and denied critics’ accusation of political motivations for the fraud crackdown. However, he said, the problem seems to be dominant in Democrat-controlled states such as Minnesota. Trump said he believes that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) are both “complicit” in that state’s fraud problem.

The Epoch Times sought comment from Walz and Omar but did not immediately receive a response.

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, said illegal immigrants are using benefits from government programs, and he believes that this is the “first-ever effort in American history” to reclaim trillions of dollars in government benefits that were taken improperly.

“If all of it were stopped, it would be enough to balance the budget. The extraction of wealth from American taxpayers to people who don’t belong here is the primary cause of the national debt,” Miller said.

As soon as he started looking into fraud, Vance said, it became apparent that “one big hold that existed is that the agencies of the government weren’t actually talking to each other.” He said the president’s order will fix one major issue: how agencies share information.

Ferguson said millions of Americans pay into these programs for “completely fake businesses,” robbing people who ought to receive that help.

About three weeks ago, Vance and Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, temporarily withheld $259 million in Medicaid from the state of Minnesota, following reports of rampant fraud in that state.

Although billions of dollars’ worth of fraud also has surfaced in California, Minnesota’s fraud problems have been a focal point for months, leading to multiple federal investigations and congressional hearings.

On March 4, Walz and the state’s attorney general, Keith Ellison, testified to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

During the hearing, both men defended their work, but congressmen pointed out that payments kept flowing to recipients who were suspected of fraud dating back to 2020.

Walz, in written testimony filed with the committee, said, “In Minnesota, if you defraud public programs, if you steal taxpayer money, we will find you, we will prosecute you, we will convict you, and we will throw you in jail.”

He acknowledged that the governor has an important role in fighting fraud and that “the buck ultimately stops” with him.

“I do not shy away from that responsibility, and I am prepared—as I have always been—to have a serious conversation with our federal partners about how to ensure fraudsters cannot take advantage of Minnesota taxpayers,” Walz wrote.

In addition to federal actions, numerous states are trying to clamp down on fraud.

The State Financial Officers Foundation—which includes members from 28 mostly conservative states—has been working to root out fraud. It found $5.7 billion in waste and returned $22.3 billion to taxpayers, according to that group’s 2025 report, released in February.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:45

Musk's xAI Turns To Wall Street Bankers To Improve Grok's Financial Analysis

Zero Hedge -

Musk's xAI Turns To Wall Street Bankers To Improve Grok's Financial Analysis

Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI is expanding efforts to make its chatbot Grok more capable in financial analysis by hiring experienced finance professionals to help train the system, according to Bloomberg.

Job listings show the company is recruiting investment bankers, traders, portfolio managers, and credit analysts to join its data-training teams. These specialists would help teach Grok how to reason through complex financial work, including leveraged loan syndication, distressed investing, mortgage-backed securities, and collateralized loan obligations. The company is also seeking experts with experience in equity and cryptocurrency markets.

The move reflects a broader push by major AI developers to sell products to financial professionals. Competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic have already introduced tools designed to speed up tasks like market analysis, research, and investment memo writing. These advances have raised concerns that some traditional financial software providers could lose relevance.

Compared with those rivals, xAI is generally seen as behind in attracting corporate customers. Much of its revenue so far has come from agreements with Musk-related businesses, including Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX, which merged with xAI last month.

Bloomberg writes that the company is also adjusting its strategy after a turbulent start to the year that included significant staff departures, including members of its founding team, as well as criticism over Grok generating explicit non-consensual images.

Recently, Musk recruited two senior employees from Cursor, an AI coding startup currently seeking funding at a reported valuation of around $50 billion. Musk has acknowledged publicly that xAI still lags competitors in coding tools, a category that has become an important revenue driver for other AI companies.

xAI relies on workers known internally as AI tutors to train Grok by supplying data and adjusting responses. At a recent staff meeting, tutor team lead Diego Pasini said the company’s biggest constraint remains the supply of training data. Much of Grok’s dataset currently comes from X.

Many of the new tutor roles are focused on credit markets, which are under increasing pressure as private credit funds face withdrawals and other industry challenges. Great timing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:25

Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand

Zero Hedge -

Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand

Moments ago the week's lone coupon auction priced in what was a stellar sale of 20Y Treasury paper.

At 1pm ET, the US Treasury auctioned off $13BN in 20Y paper, with very solid metrics and even more solid buyside demand. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.817%, up from 4.664%, but below January's 4.846%. The auction stopped 0.7bps through the 4.824% When Issued. This was the 3rd stop through auction in the past 4, following an especially ugly, tailing February 20Y auction.  

The bid to cover jumped to 2.76 from 2.36, which was also above the six-auction average of 2.63.

Internals were especially strong, with Foreign demand surging from just 55.2% in February, to 69.2% in March, the highest Indirect award since April 2025 (and obviously above the recent average of 62.1%). And with Directs taking down 21.6%, below the six-auction average of 27.0%, Dealers were left holding 9.2%, a big drop from 17.6% in February and one of the lowest Dealer allotments on record.

Overall, this was a stellar 20Y auction despite the lack of concessions in today's session, and suggests that despite the recent selling across the curve, the bond market remains in solid shape one day ahead of the Fed's decision to keep rates on hold (as most expect). 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:24

The Kobayashi Maru Scenario

Zero Hedge -

The Kobayashi Maru Scenario

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Kobayashi Maru Scenario

Yesterday's Global Daily by Ben Picton, 'The Wrath of Kharg', couldn't help but get me thinking about the infamous Kobayashi Maru scenario in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan. For those unfamiliar, back when Star Trek was a popular franchise based on serious ideas, not an unpopular one based on frivolous ones, Starfleet Academy tested its budding starship captains by making them try to rescue the simulated crew of a disabled freighter stranded in dangerous territory. Abandoning them was a failure; yet every attempt to retrieve them would be met by an ever-increasing number of attackers. Crucially, this no-win scenario was a key test of officer candidates’ characters, not their tactics or strategy.

The question today is if President Trump is himself caught in a Kobayashi Maru scenario given:

  • If he retreats from Iran, it's a geopolitical defeat the equivalent of the 1956 Suez Crisis; and he may not even be able to retreat if Iran refuses to stop the war regionally.

  • If he continues to attack, energy markets will panic further. The Israeli press says the country is preparing to fight for another month vs Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, not the three weeks alluded to yesterday; and Iran is now targeting upstream oil and gas fields (such as Shah in the UAE), not just refineries and export terminals, threatening energy supply, not flow.

Yet in Star Trek II we hear that Captain Kirk, in his youth, found a novel solution to the no-win outcome: he reprogrammed the computer, so victory was possible, winning a commendation for original thinking. "I don't like to lose," he tells a logical Vulcan who had already failed the test. Indeed, even as the media are calling this war Operation ‘Epic Folly' --and recalling that oil prices vs physical supply, and bunker fuel, jet fuel, and diesel are worse-- the futures market continues to price for cheaper energy within a few months. Even with backwardation showing the current physical squeeze, which seems to suggest an inherent view there will be no long-run disruption to the region's energy flows: and US assets are not tanking more than others on the suggestion this is due to a looming 1956 defeat. Or is that just the normal science fiction of mean-reverting "because markets" thinking? Let’s be clear: it's very easy to see how things can get far worse. However, there are arguably ways things can also improve as a result.

On one hand, Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US is fine with some Iranian, Chinese, and Indian vessels having successfully made it through Hormuz. Why wouldn't they be? If Iran starts letting everyone but the US and Israel through --neither of whom use it-- then the blockade is effectively over. Yet that argues for Iran not to do so to any great extent.

On the other, the underlying logic is that Trump also needs to reprogram the no-win scenario via further escalation of his own. As an example, Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship. The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances - as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal.

For those who can’t join those dots, note that after Trump blocked most oil exports to it after flipping Venezuela by force, the communist Cuban government has just embraced perestroika, allowing Cuban American exiles to return to the island and open private-sector businesses. That’s yet another Russian-Chinese-Iranian ally that seems in the process of being flipped into the US camp. The world is changing radically and rapidly – and it’s not something one just gets to sit out in splendid isolation.

Indeed, while NATO allies and Japan and South Kore (so far) won’t send ships to help reopen Hormuz despite Trump threats to NATO and even key Asian security alliances, the "It's not our war" crowd must note that the longer this drags on, the more painful it risks getting for them. Moreover, they may also come to see that an angrier nuclear Iran with ballistic missiles, which can happen if the regime survives, would have huge implications for everyone. Japan’s PM Takaichi is reportedly ‘weighing her options’ and could agree to join a Hormuz coalition for freedom of navigation in principle, according to the Japan Times.

By contrast, the EU is saying “Don’t “blackmail” us’: but it arguably is being – in which case, who has the greater leverage and risks the larger fallout? Notably, Europe is also arguing ‘Not one molecule!’ and has ruled out relaxing a Russian gas ban, which logically only leaves the US as an LNG supplier. Via a transitive geopolitical process, that also places Europe on the same side as the US vs Iran, a key supporter of Russia vs Ukraine… and then vs China(?) Meanwhile, with India pushing to now deepen new EU ties even further, does that tie the EU to the US via that South Asian route too, or to pro-Russia India?

The first of the major central banks to have to try to grapple with this today was the RBA. They opted to raise rates 25bps to 4.10%, as expected. They also noted that sustained higher energy prices will add to inflation and that risks on that front have tilted further to the upside: indeed, Aussie inflation is seen staying above target for “some time” even as there are “material uncertainties” about the economic outlook. The Reserve Bank also added it “will do what’s necessary to deliver its price and jobs goals” – but, in the worst case, what if they run in opposite directions ahead? The Aussie 10-year yield, which managed to break through the psychological 5% level yesterday, is now back at around 4.92%. AUD softened slightly on the decision.

What will the other central banks say and do this week? And what will they say and do next month if this really is a Kobayashi Maru scenario for them rather than one they can simply reprogram with a new liquidity acronym? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 13:11

UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market

Zero Hedge -

UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index has tumbled into a bear market since Operation Epic Fury unleashed flight disruptions across the Middle East and sent Jet A fuel prices sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank warning the fuel price shock could become an "existential threat" for the weakest carriers. The key question now is whether the worst of the selloff in US airline stocks is over, with UBS analysts beginning to ask if a bottom is near.  

UBS analyst Atul Maheswari said that "most airlines will likely point 1Q towards the midpoint of the guidance" in the earnings season, adding, "Fuel spiked in early March, but airlines tend to hold two weeks of fuel inventory, implying higher fuel will impact only about 15 days of 1Q."

"This should cushion the drag to 1Q EPS. Plus, airlines have been talking up demand through the course of the quarter, suggesting upside to 1Q RASM. With respect to FY guide, we expect airlines to suspend FY'26 outlook given the significant uncertainty around fuel costs for the rest of the year," Maheswari noted.

The analyst said that airline stocks are approaching a 2022-style decline, similar to the Russia-Ukraine fuel shock, which may now imply a potential bottoming for airline stocks.

He explained:

How does the current decline in airline stocks compare to historical periods?

If we use share price performance in 1H'22 as a guide, then it suggests that the bottom might be near for these airline stocks.

Since 2/26, shares of ALK and smaller players are down around -30% while UAL, AAL, and LUV are down mid 20%. DAL is down only -17%. The decline in LUV, ALK and smaller players have already matched the peak to trough declines witnessed in 1H'22 - the last time jet fuel witnessed a spike of similar magnitude (following the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as we are seeing currently (full details in fig. 3).

The declines in share prices DAL/UAL have not yet matched the levels witnessed in 2022, but these players now have superior business models with relatively higher margins, suggesting better ability to deal with the fuel price shock.

However, there is a caveat:

Though, one needs to be mindful of the tail risk of this conflict persisting for longer than expected driving jet fuel even higher from current levels. There is also potential for inflation to pick up materially the longer the conflict persists and for consumers to start pulling back from travel and other spending. We don't think this scenario of demand destruction is necessarily priced into the stocks even at these levels.

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index is currently showing a drawdown of about 22%.

Maheswari lowered estimates and price targets for airline stocks within the UBS coverage universe:

  • DAL: We lower our FY'26 EPS estimate to $5.85 (was $7.17) assuming 50% pass through of higher fuel costs. Our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $8.31 from $8.72. Our revised PT is $83, down from $87 previously based on 10x FY'27 EPS estimates.

  • UAL: We lower FY'26 EPS estimate to $10.22 from $13.56 while our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $14.87 from $16.28. We assume ~45% fuel pass through rates for UAL for FY'26. Our new PT is $134 vs. $147 previously.

  • AAL: AAL has higher fuel sensitivity than DAL/UAL. As such, the decline AAL sees a greater decline in FY'26 estimates (now at $0.43 vs. $2.21 previously). Our FY'27 EPS falls to $2.13, down from $2.99. This drives a moderation in our PT to $15 from $21.

  • LUV: We lower our PT to $59 from $73, which is 11x (was 12x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $5.33 (was $6.07). Our FY'26 EPS moves lower to $3.59 (was $5.05).

  • ALK: We lower our PT to $60 from $77 based on 8x (was 9x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $7.48 (was $8.60). ALK also has high fuel sensitivity to EPS. As such, our FY'26 estimates move meaningfully lower to $2.19 from $5.21.

  • We lower lower price targets and estimates for JBLU, ULCC, ALGT, and AC. Full details in figure 1.

  • Sensitivity to higher fuel: We estimate that every $0.25/gallon increase in jet fuel would lower DAL's EPS by around -15 to -17% and 20-25% for UAL/LUV (assuming no pass through in the form of higher fares). Fuel sensitivity is higher for AAL/ALK and smaller players. We calculate that for every $0.25/gallon increase in fuel RASM would need to increase by 200-250 bps to fully offset the fuel drag (see fig. 2).

Earlier, US airlines reported strong bookings, with Delta and American both posting some of their best sales days in history as premium leisure and corporate travelers rushed to lock in fares before fuel-driven price increases spread further.

Airlines also pointed to rising fuel costs, with Delta indicating that expenses have already climbed by about $400 million this month. JetBlue said first-quarter demand improved, but warned of reduced capacity amid fuel price shock.

Professional subscribers can read much more from the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:45

Judge Orders DHS To Submit Internal Documents Over Concerns About ICE Detainees' Due Process

Zero Hedge -

Judge Orders DHS To Submit Internal Documents Over Concerns About ICE Detainees' Due Process

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration Monday to turn over data in response to claims that it corrupted bond hearings for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainees.

While U.S. District Judge Clay Land described in his order these claims as a “conspiracy,” he said further legal proceedings will show whether the accusations are baseless or based in truth. The judge specifically requested documents describing policy or guidance on bond decisions from Jan. 1 to March 1 to compare them with those that existed during 2024 under the Biden administration.

Lawyers for illegal immigrant detainees in the case alleged the executive branch turned the entire bond process into a “sham,” the judge stated.

Land summarized the lawyer’s evidence as a perception that bonds are being denied more frequently, some immigration judges aren’t fully studying the record and appropriate factors before denying bond, and several immigration judges have been fired, which created a fear of retaliation by the executive branch.

“The Court finds this evidence insufficient to support the inference that a systemic failure of due process has occurred within the alien removal process,” Land wrote.

Land reasoned that some evidence exists of a dramatic decline in bond approvals recently. Furthermore, increasing immigration enforcement under Trump with a “stretch it to the limit approach” creates potential for a disregard of constitutional guardrails.

Thus far, the claims presented to the court consist “primarily of unsubstantiated hearsay and speculation flavored with a degree of hyperbolic advocacy,” Land wrote in his Monday order.

Accusations of biased and unconstitutional bond hearings for ICE detainees stemmed from several illegal immigrants, all awaiting removal proceedings, held in the Stewart Detention Center in Stewart County, Georgia.

The ICE detainees argued that an immigration judge failed to provide them with adequate bond hearings. Ten similar cases were consolidated into one, with Odrice Alisma being the petitioner in the lead case.

Alisma’s lawyers, Rachel Sharma and Karen Weinstock, presented evidence of their claims to the court, which the judge described as “circumstantial.”

Sharma and Weinstock did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

But Alisma and her lawyers will be allowed to try to prove their claims in a “limited and targeted discovery,” the judge said. Evidence that may “theoretically” exist to support their accusations is controlled by the Trump administration.

The White House, Department of Homeland Security, and ICE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Land said he found the administration’s objections to further discovery “unpersuasive.” He added that it was advancing a “‘trust us’ without a right to verify attitude” that “demonstrates a misunderstanding of statutory and constitutional law.”

Although the executive branch’s authority with immigration law is broad, it is not unlimited, Land continued.

Both parties must propose a joint schedule for further proceedings, including due dates for discovery requests, depositions, and any supplemental briefing after all discovery has been completed, by March 24.

If both sides can’t agree on a schedule, they’re each ordered to submit their own proposal for scheduling by March 24.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:25

Johnson Hits Back After Counterterrorism Chief Quits; Says Iran Threat To Americans Was 'Imminent'

Zero Hedge -

Johnson Hits Back After Counterterrorism Chief Quits; Says Iran Threat To Americans Was 'Imminent'

Update (1220ET): Shortly after the departure of Joe Kent as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war - insisting that Iran posed "no imminent threat to our nation," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) insisted there was

"I’m on the Gang of Eight. I got all the briefings. We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat," Johnson said during a press conference, referring to the classified briefings that top Congressional leaders receive. "I don’t know where Joe Kent is getting his information, but he wasn’t in those briefings, clearly."

Top Democrats who were in those meetings, however, disagree - saying they were not presented with evidence of an imminent attack from Iran, according to The Hill

 

*  *  *

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In a massive break from President Trump and MAGA, Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), announced his immediate resignation on Tuesday, citing irreconcilable opposition to the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran.

Kent declared he could not “in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” stating unequivocally that Iran posed “no imminent threat to our nation” and that the conflict was initiated “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” The move comes weeks into active strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliation underway and global oil markets feeling the strain.

Kent, a retired Green Beret with 11 combat deployments, former CIA paramilitary officer, and Gold Star husband who lost his wife Shannon in a 2019 ISIS-claimed suicide bombing in Syria, framed his exit as a defense of the "America First" principles Trump championed during his 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns. He praised Trump's first term for decisively striking Qasem Soleimani and defeating ISIS without escalating into endless wars, noting that until June 2025, Trump recognized Middle East conflicts as a "trap" draining American lives and wealth. However, Kent alleges that "early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign" that undermined Trump's platform, deceived him into believing Iran posed an imminent threat with a "clear path to a swift victory," and echoed tactics used to draw the U.S. into the "disastrous Iraq war." He explicitly compares the current situation to Iraq, warning against repeating the mistake that cost thousands of American lives.

"As a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times and as a Gold Star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people," Kent wrote.

The resignation carries profound weight as Kent was a Senate-confirmed Trump loyalist installed in July 2025, not a career holdover. As head of the NCTC - tasked with assessing terrorist threats from Iranian proxies and beyond - Kent is directly challenging the administration’s justification for the conflict. The letter, addressed personally to the president and thanking DNI Tulsi Gabbard, signals deeper fractures in the MAGA coalition or prompts a policy pivot, Kent’s bombshell exit underscores the high personal and political stakes of America’s latest Middle East engagement.

The resignation effectively places Kent within a growing bloc of Republicans who have opposed the Iran campaign from the outset, elevating what had been a vocal but limited faction into a more institutionally significant challenge to the administration’s approach.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), longtime advocates of non-interventionist “America First” foreign policy, were among the earliest critics of the strikes, warning they risk entangling the U.S. in another costly and open-ended Middle East conflict. Both have argued in recent weeks that the operation mirrors the strategic missteps that led to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, calling for de-escalation and greater congressional oversight.

The most prominent political voice amplifying that message has been former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has emerged as one of the war’s fiercest critics within Trump’s base. Since the first strikes in late February, Greene has repeatedly denounced the operation in media appearances and on social platforms, calling it a betrayal of Trump’s campaign pledge to avoid new foreign entanglements. 

On Saturday, Greene told CNN that the Republican base is fractured "along generational lines."

Many of the older Americans from the Baby Boomer generation that watch Fox News all day long very much believe the talking points on Fox News, and they have spent decades of their lives convinced that fighting these wars is the right thing to do,” she explained.

Meanwhile, the knives are out. Trump's former Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich said that Kent is a "crazed egomaniac who was often at the center of national security leaks, while rarely (never?) producing any actual work."

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:22

'No Rigged Voting': Trump Calls SAVE Act 'Most Important & Consequential' Legislation; Mike Lee Debunks Left's Favorite Lie

Zero Hedge -

'No Rigged Voting': Trump Calls SAVE Act 'Most Important & Consequential' Legislation; Mike Lee Debunks Left's Favorite Lie

President Trump on Tuesday called on Congress to pass the SAVE Act which requires ID to vote in federal elections, warning that lawmakers who vote against it will have a "guaranteed loss" in future campaigns. 

Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times

"The Save America Act is one of the most IMPORTANT & CONSEQUENTIAL pieces of legislation in the history of Congress, and America itself. NO MORE RIGGED ELECTIONS!" Trump posted to Truth Social. "Voter I.D., Proof of Citizenship, No Rigged Mail-In Voting (We are the only Country in the World that allows this!), No Men in Women’s Sports, No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our Children. 90% to 99% ISSUES ALL!," he added. (Mutilization?)

Trump's suggestion seems to be that if Democrats are allowed to steal elections, all of the woke societal ills will continue. 

"Only sick, demented, or deranged people in the House or Senate could vote against THE SAVE AMERICA ACT. If they do, each one of these points, separately, will be used against the user in his/her political campaign for office - A guaranteed loss!" Trump added. 

Trump also said on Tuesday that he won't endorse anyone who votes against it.

Meanwhile, Matt Margolis of PJ Media debunks the left's 'favorite lies' about the SAVE Act, writing; Democrats have been running the same tired playbook on the SAVE Act. They’ve claimed it’s racist, but those attacks haven’t exactly worked because majorities of minority voters support it. So, they try to scare people with outlandish claims like it will make it impossible for married women to vote. It’s a stupid claim, but some people are willing to believe it. And there are plenty of other accusations that are just as untrue.

Sen. Dick Durbin tried to push those fake claims in a recent Senate hearing, rattling off a list of grievances about the bill’s voter registration requirements.

Durbin kicked things off with the passport argument, a favorite among critics of the legislation, when it comes to registering to vote. "What is acceptable is a passport," he said. "50% of Americans do not have a passport. Those who want to obtain it so they can vote will pay $186 and wait three or four weeks for that to happen." He kept going with the married woman claim, arguing that anyone who changed their name after marriage would have to dig up not just a birth certificate but additional documentation to prove their eligibility.

However, it’s all a lie, and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the lead sponsor of the bill, was ready for him.

Lee let Durbin finish and then, with barely concealed amusement, delivered the kind of response that makes committee hearings worth watching. "I'm happy to report to my dear friend and colleague Senator Durbin from Illinois — you're in luck," Lee said. "We've taken care of that."

He went on to point out that the SAVE Act includes an explicit accommodation for people who can't produce traditional documentation. Lee spelled it out in plain English: "When you read the bill, what you'll discover is that we've made special accommodation for those who don't have documentation, for those who can't find their birth certificate. Maybe their house burned down, maybe their dog ate it, or whatever it is."

So what happens if someone genuinely has no paperwork? The bill has an answer for that, too. "When all else fails, if you don't have documentation establishing the information on your birth certificate or what would be in a passport or otherwise, the bill contains a provision requiring each state to allow an alternative mechanism by which someone can, by attestation, issue a sworn statement establishing the critical facts underlying their citizenship," Lee explained. The state then takes responsibility for verifying that sworn statement, using its own records and reciprocity agreements with other states.

Durbin tried to interject a few times. He didn't get far. Lee kept going, methodically dismantling the argument piece by piece. "We took great pains to go out of our way to make sure that no American, no American would be left in the dark," he said. "This will not cost them a dime. And no one will be excluded if they can't find their documentation."

Well, that’s a big problem for the Democrats because this undermines the whole Democratic line of attack. The passport fees, the birth certificate hunt, the cost and inconvenience - they all collapse the moment you actually read the legislation. The bill anticipates exactly the scenarios Democrats claim to be worried about and has a built-in workaround. With that in mind, they have no reason to oppose the legislation, that is, if those were truly sticking points for them

Lee even extended an invitation at the end, suggesting Durbin would surely want to support the bill now that his concerns had been addressed. “I’m sure you'll be elated to hear that, and we look forward to having your affirmative vote when we vote on the SAVE America Act.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:05

Ill-Liquidity Premium

The Big Picture -


Source: Cambridge Associates/JPM assisted by Claude

 

 

There’s an excess of news flow from the SCOTUS rejection of IEEPA tariffs to the current Middle East/Iran war. I suspect some important items are getting overlooked.

Perhaps the biggest is the goings on in private credit.

I don’t want to get distracted by gates and redemptions, belated marks, or even blow-ups. Instead, let’s address the Tweepadock in the room. The combination of unfettered growth and massive consolidation has significantly reduced the number of public equities, even as public markets have grown enormously. This has created a huge surge in the number and variety of alternative asset classes, most notably private equity and debt.

Should you be considering adding illiquid debt, credit, equity, or RE, there are some ideas you may wish to consider. Too often, the debate gets framed in binary options, but the reality is far more complex and nuanced.

The Argument: The big selling point is that illiquid alternatives may improve your risk-adjusted returns, add diversification, and provide access to non-correlated returns. These are proven results from many top-tier managers. The drawbacks are illiquidity, lack of transparency, high fees, and (to borrow Cliff Asness’ phrase) volatility-laundering.

The biggest variables affecting all of the above are 1) Timing, or when you deploy your capital, and 2) Fund/Manager selection, or the exact fund and vintage you choose. It’s not as simple or clear-cut as much of the sales literature makes it out to be.

Illiquidity Premium: Investors in private alternatives select from a universe of options that do not provide daily liquidity. This creates a broad choice of potential investments that can (and sometimes do) generate a higher return than the public markets provide. The trade-off is that you have to be willing to tie up your capital for years at a time. And the caveat is that not all private investments generate an above-market return.

Do you need Privates? For the typical households with a diversified portfolio of stocks bonds whether through mutual funds and ETF’s or direct indexing, likely do not need alternatives. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want alts or aren’t interested in either additional returns and or diversification.

Households with $5,000,000 in investment portfolios or less are likely fully diversified, so long as they are willing to withstand the occasional market volatility and drawdown.

In the $5-10 million range, the main question is how long you’re willing to lock up capital. Life changes do happen, and if you need liquidity, exiting alternatives early can be costly. For households with portfolios over $10,000,000, the key question is whether alts meet their long-term goals and suit their financial planning needs.

Do Privates need you? As we’ve seen across all sorts of institutional products, the appeal of the retail investor is that they have become an immense pool of capital measured in the 10s of trillions of dollars. As the number of private funds have expanded many have exhausted how much they can tap the institutional investor base. It was inevitable that they would reach out o the 401K and retail investor base – the dollar amounts are simply catnip to so many funds.

Sturgeon’s Corollary: I’ve mentioned sturgeon’s law and its corollary too many times to count; the key element to remember is that most investment products are mediocre at best. This is true for mutual funds, ETF’s, SPACs, hedge funds, venture funds, as well as all forms of illiquid alts including private credit and debt.

I used Claude to access Cambridge Associates data and create the chart at top showing the dispersion among top and bottom quartiles of alternatives. Venture capital is the big outlier, with the widest disp[ersion imaginable. But private equity, and debt also have a very wide dispersion — good funds do a little better than public markets, and mediocre funds do much worse.

Quality: If you can get into the top decile (quartile even?) of alts/privates, that changes the calculus as to whether or not you should be deploying your capital in that direction.

The top tier is more than just good returns: it’s a long-term track record, transparency, reasonable fees, intelligent co-investors, and a general high degree of ethics and professionalism. I have heard far too many horror stories about alts gone wrong to advise you not to blindly stumble into too many of the available options.

Conclusion:  I remain unconvinced that the median alternative fund is worth the fees, illiquidity, and complexity. Unless you can get into a top fund, it is simply not worth the headaches.

 

 

 

Previously:
Sturgeon’s Corollary (December 4, 2025)

Your Co-Investors in BREIT (December 12, 2022)

 

~~~

NOTE: I wrote this entire post myself. I used Claude to generate the chart and table above; I use Grammarly to spell/grammar check the Word doc it was drafted in. 

 

The post Ill-Liquidity Premium appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bitcoin's Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin's Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Bitcoin investors have shown surprising resilience despite recent market turbulence, fueled by institutional investors and aggressive corporate treasury buyers. 

Analysts say this trend highlights a structural shift in ownership that could support long-term growth.

Institutional demand is clearly back, with “four consecutive sessions of ETF inflows and aggressive spot demand…suggesting one thing: institutional buyers have returned and they’re ready to increase their holdings around current prices, which recovered to above $70k as a result,” Bitfinex said in a note to Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitfinex wrote that “a sustained break above resistance could trigger momentum expansion, as positioning and the balance of flows suggest that the market is preparing for its next directional move after weeks of range trading.”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also noted Bitcoin ETFs have held up despite a roughly 50% price drop since October 2025, underlining institutional commitment.

“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said, according to Coindesk reporting

“Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we’ve seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs,” he said. 

Hougan described institutional investors as exhibiting “diamond hands,” maintaining positions despite severe market drawdowns. He attributes this persistence to the non-consensus status of BTC.

Hougan said that institutional investors who buy into BTC today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers. That career risk, he explained, fosters unusually high conviction, meaning investors allocating capital to bitcoin today tend to be 80–90% convinced of its long-term value rather than mildly optimistic.

This conviction underpins Hougan’s reaffirmed long-term bitcoin forecast of $1 million per coin. 

“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not wild at all,” he said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”

Last week, Hougan argued that skepticism over Bitcoin reaching $1 million stems from a misunderstanding of its valuation, as many analysts use “static math” that ignores the rapidly growing global store-of-value market. 

Framing BTC as an emerging competitor to gold, he estimates that with a $38 trillion market and BTC’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, the $1 million price target is plausible.

Bitcoin isn’t very speculative anymore

Supporting this thesis, Bernstein analysts also noted that bitcoin’s ownership base has matured, reducing reliance on retail speculation.

In a March 16 research note seen by Bitcoin Magazine, they highlighted the growing influence of spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy. 

The firm described Strategy as a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” citing its aggressive accumulation model, which has added more than 66,000 BTC so far in 2026 at an average cost near $85,000. Strategy’s total holdings now exceed 761,000 BTC, valued around $56 billion.

Bernstein emphasized that institutional inflows are reshaping BTC’s ownership structure. Spot ETFs absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over three weeks, nearly offsetting year-to-date outflows of $460 million. 

Institutional vehicles now control roughly 6.1% of BTC’s total supply, while coins inactive for over a year represent approximately 60% of circulating supply, signaling a growing base of long-term holders.

On top of this, on-chain indicators point to a late-stage bear cycle, as Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet explained to Bitcoin Magazine:

“The convergence of on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV suggests Bitcoin may be entering the late stage of a typical bear cycle, a phase historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than continued capitulation.” 

Despite short-term macro headwinds, the current conditions signal a strategic accumulation phase, with BTC likely fluctuating between $68,000 and $84,000 as longer-term investors position for the next cycle.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:45

Las Vegas Cops Refuse To Release Violent Repeat Offender, Defying Judge's Order

Zero Hedge -

Las Vegas Cops Refuse To Release Violent Repeat Offender, Defying Judge's Order

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Las Vegas Metro police are refusing to release a violent repeat offender, in defiance of a local judge’s order.

The career criminal, 36-year-old Joshua Sanchez-Lopez, has been arrested 35 times, with a rap sheet that includes involuntary manslaughter, drugs and car theft, according to the New York Post.

The legal standoff began in January, when police arrested Sanchez-Lopez on a warrant for grand larceny of a motor vehicle.

Justice Eric Goodman set Sanchez-Lopez’s bail at $25,000 and ordered his release with an ankle monitor once he posted bond.

The program allows defendants to leave jail and wear an ankle bracelet. Various levels of the program require different levels of confinement. Goodman ordered Sanchez-Lopez to high-level electronic monitoring, which Dickerson described as house arrest. About 450 defendants are in the program at a time.

Sanchez-Lopez reportedly posted bail on January 24, but the Las Vegas police refused to place him in the program, given his history of failing to comply with the rules. Attorneys for Metro filed a petition last week challenging the judge’s authority to release him, arguing that the Department has the authority to declare a defendant too dangerous to release.

In a letter to the court, the department gave three reasons for refusing the judge’s order.

  1. Sanchez-Lopez’s history of failing to appear in court

  2. His previous bench warrants

  3. His past violations of electronic monitoring rules

Police cited a case in 2020, where Sanchez-Lopez, armed with a gun, ran from the cops and later joked about his ankle monitor on Snapchat and gloated about being “chased again.”

“We have to take a look at that and say, ‘Is this somebody who our electronic supervision program can monitor safely in the community?” Mike Dickerson, assistant general counsel for Metro police, told KLAS. “This is an issue of public safety.”

Goodman last month threatened to hold the police department and Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill, who heads Metro police, in contempt of court for defying his order.

In its petition, filed on March 9, the department asked “for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty.”

Sanchez-Lopez’s public defender told KLAS the cops are out of line.

“Metro’s argument is flat wrong,” attorney P. David Westbrook told the outlet. “It is the job of the elected judge to decide whether someone charged with a crime should be released and under what conditions.

“The idea that a Metro employee can overrule a judge’s release order and keep someone locked up should worry anyone who believes in the Constitution and the rule of law,” Westbrook said.

Metro’s Office of Public Information also provided the following statement to KLAS:

On Monday, March 9, 2026, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department filed a petition with the Nevada Supreme Court asking for a writ of prohibition against the Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township.

LVMPD is asking for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty. The justice court is threatening contempt proceedings against Sheriff McMahill for not releasing a pretrial detainee to LVMPD’s electronic supervision program even though the sheriff determined that electronic supervision of that individual would pose an unreasonable risk to public safety and communicated his determination to the justice court.

Sheriff McMahill’s authority to evaluate whether electronic supervision of a defendant poses an unreasonable risk to public safety is clearly defined in NRS 211.250(2) and NRS 211.300.

The Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township has the authority to release dangerous people into our community. However, the sheriff will not violate the law to assist those few judges who seek to use LVMPD’s electronic monitoring program in disregard of public safety and the safety of the dedicated LVMPD corrections officers who administer the electronic monitoring program.

Sanchez-Lopez’s case is scheduled to return to Goodman’s courtroom on Thursday, March 19, KLAS reported.

The case comes as the public becomes increasingly concerned about the dire consequences of liberal, soft-on crime policies amid a slew of appalling stories in the news featuring homicidal maniacs, illegal alien gangbangers, and career criminals being released back onto the streets again and again to victimize innocent Americans thanks to lenient judges like Goodman, Soros district attorneys and Blue State sanctuary politicians.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:05

"Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

Zero Hedge -

"Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

In a double dose of regulatory green lights delivered on the same day, Oklo and its wholly owned subsidiary Atomic Alchemy just notched two meaningful milestones that underscore America’s push to reclaim control over critical nuclear supply chains.

The news sent the stock flying in early morning trading. 

What happened?

First, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued Atomic Alchemy its inaugural materials license. The permit authorizes the company to receive, possess, process, repackage, and distribute up to 2 curies of radium-226 (material currently treated as waste) along with sealed sources of cobalt-60 and americium-241 for calibration. Operations will kick off at Atomic Alchemy’s Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory in Idaho Falls, paving the way for initial commercial sales of recovered isotopes used in cancer therapies, medical research, advanced manufacturing, and national security applications.

Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said, “Demand for critical isotopes is rising, but U.S. supply remains limited. This work helps create a more resilient and dependable domestic supply chain of isotopes and supports the transition from early operations to durable, commercial isotope production in the United States.”

Hot on its heels came the second announcement: the Department of Energy approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for Oklo’s flagship Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory. Following the recent signing of an Other Transaction Agreement under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, the NSDA marks the first formal step in the accelerated authorization pathway. Oklo has already requested review of its Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis, building on the project’s September 2025 groundbreaking and the earlier NSDA win for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility.

The Aurora-INL deployment, powered by recycled fuel from the historic Experimental Breeder Reactor II, sets the stage for eventual NRC commercial licensing while demonstrating how fast-fission tech can pair with isotope production for multi-stream revenue. The reactor design already scored a huge win after it was announced Oklo will be partnering with Meta to deploy multiple reactors to support the hyperscalers' data centers. 

As we detailed back in January in our coverage of Oklo’s isotope business, the company is pursuing multiple revenue streams, unlike typical reactor developers who just focus on power off‑take agreements.

Oklo is reporting earnings after the bell later today and could share more details on their Atomic Alchemy isotope business. Analysts are looking for updates on reactor deployment timelines, new partnerships with hyperscalers or other power off‑takers, and some more clarity on nuclear fuel recycling efforts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:50

Fire Erupts Atop Manhattan Skyscraper

Zero Hedge -

Fire Erupts Atop Manhattan Skyscraper

Dramatic footage has flooded X, showing what appears to be a fire atop a skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan at 6 East 43rd Street, New York City.

Footage:

*Developing

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:20

US Pending Home Sales Barely Bounce Off Record Lows Despite Tumbling Rates In Feb

Zero Hedge -

US Pending Home Sales Barely Bounce Off Record Lows Despite Tumbling Rates In Feb

After reaching a record low last month - with the decline blamed on weather - pending home sales bounced modestly in February (up 1.8% MoM vs -0.6% MoM exp and -10.% MoM prior).

Year-over-year home sales continue to decline (down 0.6% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

...just barely off of all-time-record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 2.7%.

They rose 4.6% in the Midwest and edged up in the West.

Contract signings dropped in the Northeast.

Mortgage-rates have tumbled (to their lowest since 2022) - helping affordability - so what is holding pending home sales back?

Source: Bloomberg

“The slight gain in pending contracts appears to be driven by improved affordability conditions. However, those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Indeed, it certainly won't help in April that in the first week of March, mortgage rates jumped by the most since September as war with Iran sparked concerns about inflation.

Housing affordability has been a key issue ahead of November’s midterm election. President Trump has taken several steps to boost home ownership, including signing two executive orders last week aimed at improving access to mortgage credit and easing environmental rules to speed up development projects.

As a reminder, pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:08

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