At The Money: At The Money: Investing in Freedom (March 25, 2026)

The freest countries generate the best returns for investors. That is the thesis underlying the Freedom 100 EM Index ETF, and its proven itself over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. Perth Toll is the founder of the Life and Liberty indexes and the creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index (symbol FRDM). She was named one of 10 to watch in 2020 by Wealth Management Magazine and one of the 100 people transforming Business by Business Insider in 2021.

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Perth Toll is the founder of the Life and Liberty indexes and the creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index (symbol FRDM). She was named one of 10 to watch in 2020 by Wealth Management Magazine and one of the 100 people transforming Business by Business Insider in 2021.

For more info, see:

Professional/Personal website

Masters in Business

LinkedIn

Twitter

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TRANSCRIPT:

 

Barry Ritholtz: On today’s edition of At The Money, we’re going to discuss how to avoid those countries that are geopolitically dangerous to your wealth: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Perth Tolle. She’s the founder of Life and Liberty Indexes and creator of the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF, stock symbol FRDM. She was named one of 10 people to watch by Wealth Management Magazine, and one of 100 people transforming business by Business Insider. Her ETF, the Freedom 100 EM Index, manages over 2 billion dollars and has beaten the S&P 500 over one, two, and three years. In 2025, FRDM was up 67%. That’s double the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which was up about 33–34%, which itself was double the S&P 500, which was up 17.9%.

Perth, before we get into the details, remind us about the Freedom Index—what gets excluded and why?

Perth Tolle: The Freedom Index is basically a freedom-weighted emerging markets strategy that uses third-party quantitative freedom metrics to weight countries instead of using market cap. With market-capitalization-weighted indices, you get a high weighting to autocracies, and some of the world’s biggest autocracies have a very concentrated weight. With freedom-weighting instead, you get a higher concentration in the freest countries in the world, because we believe that’s where we’re going to find the best growth stories going forward.

Barry Ritholtz: Makes sense. I know the index looks at three broad categories to screen out different countries: civil, political, and economic concerns. Explain how you ended up on those three items.

Perth Tolle: We felt it was extremely important to encompass all different kinds of freedoms, not just personal freedoms and not just economic freedoms, because all freedoms work together. One of the authors of the data set that we use has said that freedoms work together like parts of an automobile. You can’t have the steering wheel without the transmission—the car still won’t run. So you have to have both personal freedoms, like civil and political freedoms, encompassing things like terrorism, torture, trafficking, women’s rights, freedom of speech, media expression, assembly, religion, civil procedure, criminal procedure, judiciary independence and things like that.

You also need the economic freedoms that we’re all more familiar with as investors—things like taxation, rule of law, private property rights, business regulations, soundness of monetary policy, and freedom to trade internationally.

All of these things added together give us a composite country score from our data think tanks, the Cato Institute and the Fraser Institute, and we use that composite score on the country level to derive our country weights.

Barry Ritholtz: I want to dig deeper into those three broad subjects, but before we do, there’s been a lot of pushback on ESG-type investing and morality-based investing. When I hear names like the Cato Institute and the Fraser Institute, these are very conservative entities, not the sort of groups you think of as, “Oh, this is just another woke way of moving money around.” Investing in freedom really is a fairly well-defined way to screen out risk, bad players, and increased risk, isn’t it?

Perth Tolle: The Cato Institute and the Fraser Institute—I’m not sure what you mean by “very conservative.”

The Fraser Institute is known for its economic freedom data, while the Cato Institute is more focused on the personal freedom side of it—more political and civil freedoms. Both are entities that take no government grants, so they don’t take any grants from even the U.S. or Canadian governments, where they’re based.

That was important to me because we all know the World Bank debacle a few years ago, where they took money from China and, under Chinese coercion, changed some of their scoring. They had to scrap a very useful index, which we used, the Doing Business Index. The community is still trying to replace that.

This independence was important to me—they are independent from government coercion. Another thing I noticed working with them over the years—and by the way, we’re completely independent from each other, so I have no influence on their country scoring, and they have no influence on our country allocations—is that having permission to use their data set has given me some insight into how they work.

One thing that really impressed me was that going into 2016 and going into 2024, a lot of the more conservative voices were kind of going along with the political environment, whereas these groups never did. They called out the dangers that they saw in the American political situation before 2016.

In my opinion, this is a group that is extremely unbiased toward any government, partly because they are completely privately funded. I’ve seen their third-party independence firsthand through this work and this data set, which is completely third-party for them. We are using their third-party measurements, so there are two layers of third-party objectivity. I’ve been really impressed with how unbiased and neutral they have been, and I would even say centrist, when it comes to looking at the government and political situation both in the U.S. and outside the U.S., and in their commentary there.

Barry Ritholtz: We’ll talk a little bit about the U.S. later. I want to dive into these three broad subject matters that drive the index, some of which seem a little obvious, some of which not so much. Let’s start with the civil freedoms, where you’re looking at violent conflict, organized crime, disappearance, detainment, torture, and terrorism. All those things sound like they’re not related to economics, but they also seem to create a terrible environment in which to do business.

Perth Tolle: If you can’t walk down the street without being concerned about being shot, then you can’t really be doing business. That’s the idea there. If you want a more colloquial way of looking at it, it’s the right to life, the right to liberty, and the right to property. If you don’t have life, you don’t have anything else. That is the basis of all the other freedoms, and I put that right to life in the civil freedoms category.

Barry Ritholtz: Now let’s talk about political freedoms. Some of these make a whole lot more sense: rule of law, due process, independent judiciary, multiple political parties and not single-party rule, freedom of the press, freedom of expression. How do all of these things translate into better investment returns?

Perth Tolle: I’m going to focus on freedom of the press and expression for a moment. Without freedom of the press or freedom of expression, there’s no independent verification of any data, whether it comes from governments or companies. There’s no way to know whether any of that data is accurate or complete. You see that in some autocratic countries—they’re no longer publishing some of their economic data because they don’t want third-party scrutiny from other countries, and in their own countries they’ve already quashed it.

Without third-party verification of data—which is what investors use to measure the impact of their investments—there’s no way to measure the true impact of your investments or whether your analysis is even correct.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s stay within political freedoms and talk about the rule of law and an independent judiciary, given the sanctity of contracts and how important it is to maintain that. How significant is an independent judiciary to this index?

Perth Tolle: There are 87 variables that go into the country-level composite score, and an independent judiciary is one of those. It’s just as important as all the others. As I said, all the freedoms work together like parts of an automobile. I would say it is of utmost importance, especially in business, because if you don’t know if your contracts are going to be upheld, how do you even enter into contractual agreements? How do you even start that business relationship?

On the more extreme end of that, in emerging markets where there is no independent judiciary and no real rule of law, anyone can be arrested, disappeared, or detained for political reasons that have nothing to do with their actual business. We saw this when Jack Ma disappeared—again using China as a prime example—because he said something at a conference that the government didn’t like. His IPOs were scrapped and many other tech entrepreneurs have disappeared since then.

In countries without rule of law, judicial independence, and due process, you see things like China’s 99% conviction rate.

Barry Ritholtz: That’s a pretty substantial conviction rate, isn’t it?

Perth Tolle: They must have some great prosecutors over there. Those are very basic, fundamental things that you need in order to conduct both life and business, and I think most of Wall Street overlooks them.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about the third leg of the stool: economic freedoms. These include property rights, sound monetary policy, independent central banks, free trade, business, credit and labor regulations, and then the degree of government interference in private markets. All of these are obviously significant to operating a business and investing in publicly traded companies. Tell us about economic freedoms in the emerging-market world.

Perth Tolle: I think economic freedoms, of all the freedoms, get kind of a bad rap because capitalism has its critics. But if you don’t have the freedom to conduct business and you don’t have the freedom to use your own resources as you see fit to contribute to the world, then you don’t really have freedom. If the government tells you what your occupation is to be or whether you can sell fruit on the street—as we saw in the Arab Spring—whether you can provide a living for your family, and you’re dependent on the government to give you that fundamental right, then you’re not really free. Without economic freedom, you have no freedom.

As for the other things you mentioned in the economic freedom data set—private property rights, free trade, soundness of monetary policy—all of those are things that I think Wall Street has traditionally taken for granted because we usually work in countries that already have them. That’s how we can be myopic to the freedom premium in emerging markets, because in emerging markets these things cannot be taken for granted; not all of them have these freedoms.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you think about the Freedom Index—is it a values-based fund, a risk-management tool, or simply a pure return-seeking strategy?

Perth Tolle: I would say 95-plus percent of our clients are using it as a pure “freedom premium” strategy. They believe that freer countries will outperform in the long run. We do have some investors who came in during the early days when ESG was a big thing, and they have ESG portfolios. But I think that’s going away a bit. Most of our clients use this because they believe it will outperform.

Of course, now after the outperformance that we’ve had in the out-of-sample, live performance of the fund, most people are using it in that way—as their core emerging-markets strategy.

Barry Ritholtz: Here’s the pushback I’ve heard: markets are very efficient. When it comes to things like political risk, state ownership, capital controls, and rule of law, people will say, “Hey, the markets have already priced that political risk in.” How do you respond to that?

Perth Tolle: At the height of China inclusion during COVID, in 2020 and 2021, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index had 41% allocated to China. In 2021 and 2022, the China tech inclusion happened and a lot of investors lost a lot of money. At the same time, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Russia’s market went to zero. Nobody saw any of those things coming—the war, COVID—all of these events that exacerbated autocracy risk in many countries around the world.

I would say that the metrics we’re using for both personal and economic freedom are traditionally overlooked by investors, and people are only now becoming more aware of them. That’s due both to the outperformance of the freer countries and the drastic declines in the unfree countries. Even now, investors are asking, “Where can we find pockets of value in China?” There’s still a lot of blind investing into these countries as if all these basic foundational freedoms are in place, completely ignoring that they’re not. So I would say these risks are far from being priced in, and we see that in the performance gap as well.

Barry Ritholtz: Really amazing. To wrap up: if you’re a U.S. or Canadian-based investor and you’re interested in getting exposure to emerging markets via an ETF—and you don’t want to funnel money to autocrats and dictators—and you want to invest in the freest countries, whether that’s a values-based decision, a risk-management decision, or simply because it has demonstrated over the past few years to be a return-seeking strategy, then take a look at the Freedom 100 EM Index ETF, symbol FRDM. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At The Money.

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'Cuba Next!': 1000s Rally In Favor Of American Intervention In Communist Island Nation

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Thunderous chants of “Cuba next,” “patria y vida,” and “libertad” echoed from thousands of Cuban Americans in Hialeah, Florida, on Tuesday evening at a rally for a post-regime Cuba.

“Patria y vida means that we get to have our country and also have life,” one of the attendees, Venus Barrera, said. “I came today to beg for an intervention so Cuba can finally be free. We have been dealing with a dictatorship for the last 67 years.”

Translated to English, “patria y vida” means “homeland and life.”

Dozens of Cubans who spoke to The Epoch Times expressed their hope that U.S. President Donald Trump will intervene to rid Cuba of what they described as a tyrannical regime that has imprisoned, punished, exiled, and killed its opposition for nearly 70 years.

Wearing “Make Cuba Great Again” hats and waving American, Cuban, and Trump flags, the thousands of attendees all synchronized in a single message: the time for freedom in Cuba is overdue.

Barrera told The Epoch Times that she has lost several close family members to the communist regime, including her brother, over the past three years.

“There’s no freedom,” Barrera said.

Cuban Americans gathered at a rally for a post-regime Cuba. Following the event, attendees stayed behind to sing and dance together, in Hialeah, Fla., on March 25, 2026. Troy Myers/Epoch Times

Cuban American influencers, opposition leaders, and local and state politicians spoke at the “Free Cuba Rally” on Tuesday night, alternating with Cuban American musicians singing songs about a free Cuba.

Barrera was born in the United States after her parents fled the island nation, which is less than 100 miles from the closest point of Florida, in search of a better life, she said. To achieve a free Cuba, there must not be any communist politicians left in power—they must leave the country entirely, she said.

“They have destroyed our country,” Barrera said. “I wouldn’t even dare go back there.”

Another attendee at the rally, 83-year-old Maria, who did not wish to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that she arrived in the United States four months ago and had witnessed firsthand a once beautiful country turn into the failed communist state it is today, describing Fidel Castro’s far-left revolution in 1959 as a “cancer.”

Current Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel must be removed, Maria said.

“Destroy everything that has to do with communism,” the 83-year-old said.

Hialeah Mayor Bryan Calvo, who organized the event alongside city council members, told the crowd that his city stands ready to lead and support the vision of a post-regime Cuba.

Expatriates previously told The Epoch Times at length about their hopes for the Cuban communist regime to be the next in line to fall after the successful capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces.

Tuesday night’s rally in South Florida reinforced these hopes of American intervention, as top U.S. officials have repeatedly hinted that such action against Cuba could be coming.

Cuban Americans draped their country and the U.S. flag around themselves at a rally for a post-regime Cuba, in Hialeah, Fla., on March 25, 2026. Troy Myers/The Epoch Times

Trump said on March 8 that Cuba was “at the end of the line” after the nation lost its main oil provider and ally, Maduro.

Days later, while speaking at a news conference, Trump said the communist country faces severe humanitarian challenges. He also suggested the possibility of a U.S. takeover.

“It may be a friendly takeover. It may not be a friendly takeover,” Trump said.

Then, on March 17, the president told reporters at the White House: “I do believe I'll be having the honor of taking Cuba. That’s a big honor. Whether I free it, take it, I think I can do anything I want with it.”

That statement was approved of by many Cuban Americans at the Tuesday night rally.

Yeslier Sanchez, who arrived in the United States more than 30 years ago, said he believes he can speak for all Cubans in demanding dramatic change in the communist regime that’s oppressed its people for decades.

"Cuba next," thousands of Cuban Americans chanted in unison at a rally for American intervention in the island nation's communist regime. Attendees listened to politicians, influencers, musicians, and Cuban opposition leaders at the event in Hialeah, Fla., on March 25, 2026. Troy Myers/The Epoch Times

“We never forget,” Sanchez told The Epoch Times. “Everybody in the government must be held accountable for what they did over these 67 years.”

Prior to the elaborately planned and executed capture of Maduro, the Trump administration began pressuring the Venezuelan regime. The United States has been applying the same kind of tactics to Cuba.

Trump signed an executive order on Jan. 29 that would impose tariffs on any nation selling oil to Cuba. A recent 29-hour nationwide blackout, amid the U.S. oil blockade, highlighted Cuba’s crippled infrastructure.

“Cuba has an economy that doesn’t work and a political and governmental system that can’t fix it,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on March 17.

Thousands of Cuban Americans showed up for a rally to support American intervention in Cuba's communist regime. Attendees held a sign saying "Cuba Next" in Hialeah, Fla., on March 25, 2026. Troy Myers/The Epoch Times

Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, also called for dramatic change in Cuban leadership. Anytime the speakers at the Tuesday rally mentioned the secretary of state’s name, the crowd erupted in support.

With success in Venezuela and the weeks-long devastation of the Iranian regime in Operation Epic Fury, Trump could be emboldened to make a move on the communist island nation in America’s backyard next.

“We don’t negotiate with killers and assassins,” Sanchez said. “In order to have a free Cuba, they either must die or they must go.”

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Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 09:25

https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/gfwc3teojuwf1.mp4

Source: Reddit

 

 

While we await ___, consider this fascinating animation on what is written by people, and what is machine generated…

The post Share of web articles written by AI or Humans appeared first on The Big Picture.

Stock Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Ceasefire Optimism

US futures are sharply higher and oil tumbles as the US reportedly offered a15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close triggering a global rally; Meanwhile Iran is said to have rejected the plan and kept up missile and drone attacks on Israel and Arab Gulf states in response to attacks on its own facilities, while the US continues to move new military assets into place ahead of Trump’s deadline to reopen the SoH. So the situation remains fluid. Even so, S&P futures rose 1.0% and Nasdaq futures gained over 1.1% , with all Mag 7 stocks higher pre-market; Semis and Cyclicals ex-Energy are higher with some defensives such as healthcare maintaining a bid. The yield on two-year Treasuries dropped four basis points to 3.86% while 10Y yields traded down to 4.31%; the USD is flat and commodities are selling off. Energy and natgas are weaker; Brent fell 6% to below $99 a barrel even as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut as a diplomatic push by the US to try to end the war with Iran gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region; precious metals are rallying despite the USD being flat. Meanwhile, reminding us that another war is taking place, drones attacked Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea, setting it on fire as Ukraine carried out the most intense air strike on its foe in more than a year. Today's US economic data calendar includes February import/export priced index and 4Q current account balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 4:10pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks all rise (Alphabet +1.3%, Amazon +1.3%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +1.5%, Meta +0.9%, Microsoft +1%, Tesla +1.8%). Miners such as Newmont Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. were among the biggest gainers in US premarket trading.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) rises 12% after the semiconductor designer said it will start selling its own chips for the first time. The new business is expected to generate about $15 billion annually within five years.
• Blaize Holdings (BZAI) soars 42% after the semiconductor device company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on.
• Braze (BRZE) gains 21% after the software company forecast revenue for the first quarter that was higher than the average analyst estimate. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter.
• Chewy (CHWY) gains 6% after online retailer of pet food posted fourth-quarter results.
• General Motors Co. (GM) climbs 2% after Wolfe raised its rating to outperform, saying investors may be underestimating several tailwinds, including a lower net tariff burden.
• EchoStar (SATS) rises 5%, Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 3% and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) climbs 3% as the Information reports that SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week.
• KB Home (KBH) falls 4% after the single-family home builder forecast deliveries for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) rises 5% after the gunmaker said Beretta Holding said it’s prepared to commence a tender offer for up to 20% of the outstanding shares not already owned at a purchase price of $44.80 per share.
• Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) gains 5% after Merck & Co. agreed to buy the drugmaker in a $6.7 billion deal.

In other corporate news, Meta’s rollout of new display-equipped Ray-Ban smart glasses in the EU has been hampered by battery and AI regulations in addition to supply constraints. Amazon, Qualcomm Ventures and Tether are among investors in robotics startup Neura’s latest funding round. SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for its IPO as soon as this week, The Information reported.

In AI news, Arm shares are up in premarket trading after the chip designer said it will begin selling its own chips for the first time, adding a business that it expects to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. OpenAI plans to discontinue its Sora AI video generator six months after the high-profile launch of a standalone app for the service. It will also wind down a partnership with Disney which had centered on Sora. Disney’s CEO has now seen two technology bets falter in a week.

Traders are finding some relief after weeks of headline-driven volatility that have left the S&P 500 on track for its biggest monthly loss in a year. The overnight mood was lifted by news that the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to resolve the conflict. Details are still coming out, but the AP reported that it includes sanctions relief, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Wednesday’s rebound, investors remain wary as Iran kept up attacks on neighboring states and several officials signaled that the Islamic Republic isn’t ready to negotiate.

“There’s a rebound in risk appetite this morning, which makes sense given the newsflow, but for us this is no time to buy the rally,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “One can actually feel the algos reacting to the ‘peace’, ‘negotiation’ and ‘ceasefire’ keywords.”

For Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management, the sustainability of today’s rally will depend heavily on a constructive response from Iran, and the situation on the ground meant investors should remain cautious.

“The outcome does not depend solely on the US,” he said. “The regional geopolitical landscape remains complex, involving multiple actors, most notably Iran, which retains meaningful negotiating leverage. This continues to introduce an additional layer of risk, particularly through the energy channel.”

Oil fell, with WTI back down to around $88 a barrel. The retreat in oil prices prompted traders to scale back expectations for tighter monetary policy from central banks. Swaps now price in less than a one-in-five chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year, while pointing to between two and three increases from the Bank of England. Traders priced in three BOE hikes on Tuesday. ECB President Christine Lagarde also pushed back against expectations of an imminent response to higher energy prices, saying that the ECB could look through a limited, short-lived shock. 

While bond markets continued to signal a more negative scenario for the war than equities, “these perspectives should converge once visibility improves, likely returning to a more benign baseline,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank.

The impact on companies and supply chains continues to play out. Airgas said it will curtail helium shipments after Qatar halted production at a major LNG facility. Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of the spring planting season. And the Trump administration is said to be preparing to expand the opportunity for sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 advanced 1.4%, heading for its first three-day run of gains since the conflict began. Mining and technology stocks are leading gains, while telecoms and personal care shares are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• UBS shares rise as much as 2.6% amid broader gains for financials and as Bank of America analysts reiterate a buy rating on the Swiss firm
• Diageo rises as much as 2.5% after BNP Paribas upgraded the drinksmaker’s stock to neutral from underperform, citing improved risk-reward following material underperformance and trough valuation levels
• Croda shares rise as much as 5.4% after Morgan Stanley raised the stock to overweight from equal-weight, the second bank to upgrade the stock this week
• Grifols shares rise as much as 9.5%, the most since July 30, following the Spanish blood plasma company’s plan to list a minority stake in its US biopharma business
• Lanxess shares soared 16% after JPMorgan double upgraded the German specialty chemical company, saying it should get an earnings boost as the war in Iran eases competitive pressures and increases pricing power
• Volex shares rise as much as 13% after the UK connectivity and power product group said it expects financial performance to be significantly ahead of market expectations
• ASOS shares rise as much as 17%, the most in more than four months, after the online fashion retailer posted first-half earnings that surpassed analysts’ forecasts
• RS Group shares drop as much as 6.7%, the most in 14 months, after the distributor of electronic and industrial products warned like-for-like sales are expected to decline in the year to the end of March
• Reckitt Benckiser shares fall as much as 2.8% after JPMorgan (neutral) cut its first-quarter sales forecast for the consumer goods company, citing weak seasonal over-the-counter products and destocking after a poor flu season
• Inwit shares slide as much as 9.9% after key customer Swisscom sought to terminate their service agreement in 2028, a move that escalates a dispute between the two parties

Earlier, Asian stocks rose for a second session, with all major markets in the green, as hopes for a de-escalation of the Iran war gathered strength on reports of diplomatic efforts by the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.4%, the most since March 10, with chipmaker TSMC among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks rose more than 1.5% each in South Korea, Japan, India and Taiwan.
The rebound in risk assets was driven by expectations of a negotiated settlement in the Middle East conflict. The US has presented Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News, while Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations.  Elsewhere in the region, Indonesian stocks gained as the market reopened after a weeklong holiday. Australian shares climbed as inflation rose less than expected in February. 

In FX, the US dollar is unchanged, while the Aussie dollar is leading declines against the greenback, falling 0.5%. The pound is little changed after UK inflation held at an 11-month low in February as expected.

In rates, treasuries were relatively stable overnight, broadly holding Tuesday’s late gains into the US session as the Trump administration stepped up efforts for ending the war with Iran.US yields lower by 3bp to 4bp across the curve with spreads broadly trading within a basis points of Tuesday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.32%, near bottom of day’s range and with 10-year note futures trading toward top of Tuesday range — in the 10-year sector bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries by 2.5bp and 5bp on the day. Oil prices hold losses, supporting European bonds over the London session. In the UK, February CPI data printed broadly in-line with estimates, while PPI data was slightly softer than estimates. US session focus includes a 5-year note auction, which follows Tuesday’s poor 2-year auction.  This week’s Treasury auction cycle resumes with a $70 billion 5-year note sale at 1pm New York, following a weak 2-year note auction on Tuesday that tailed the WI by 1.8bp. The WI 5-year at ~3.972% is ~36bp cheaper than the February stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.7bp

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures both trade lower by over 5% on the day, supporting S&P futures (+1.0%) and lower Treasury yields, following report that the US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the Iran conflict to a close. Brent crude futures for May fall about 5% to around $99 a barrel, while WTI traded around $88 a barrel. European natural gas futures drop 5.5%. Precious metals gain.

Today's US economic data calendar includes February import/export priced index and 4Q current account balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 4:10pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.9%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.5%
• DAX +1.8%
• CAC 40 +1.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -4 basis points at 4.32%
• VIX -1.4 points at 25.53
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1207.99
• euro little changed at $1.1602
• WTI crude -5.2% at $87.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions. They worry Trump is buying time as he brings more military equipment to the Middle East. Axios
• Iran has received an American 15-point plan for a ceasefire for the Iran war through intermediaries from Pakistan, officials in Islamabad said Wednesday. The proposal was sent even as Washington began to move paratroopers to the Middle East to back up a contingent of Marines already heading to the region. AP
• Chinese artificial intelligence service stocks rallied after state media highlighted a sharp increase in domestic AI model adoption and a surge in token usage they generate. BBG
• Chevron’s refining head warned that California is heading toward a fuel crisis and that it may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations. BBG
• Australia’s inflation eased slightly in February, but remained well above the central bank’s target range, keeping the door open for a further rise in interest rates. Headline inflation was 3.7% on-year in February, easing from 3.8% in January, but still well above the 2% to 3% range targeted by the Reserve Bank of Australia. WSJ
• The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation was unchanged in February, but is set to rise over the coming months as energy and food prices jump in the wake of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. CPI was inline on the headline for Feb at +3%, but ran slightly ahead on core (+3.2% vs. the Street +3.1%) and services (+4.3% vs. the Street +4.2%). WSJ
• SpaceX may file an IPO as soon as this week, The Information reported. The company may try to raise more than $75 billion, but won’t decide until a few weeks before the offering. BBG
• DHS funding deal receives critical pushback from both sides of the aisle, raising doubts about whether an agreement is imminent. Politico
• The DOJ acknowledged that they did not have evidence of wrongdoing in its criminal investigation of the Fed over the cost of its building renovations, according to a transcript of the court proceedings. WaPo

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher with risk sentiment spurred by hopes of a halt to the Iran conflict after optimistic comments from US President Trump regarding negotiations, while it was reported that the US was working on a 1-month ceasefire and offered a 15-point plan to Iran for ending the conflict. ASX 200 rallied with gains led by outperformance in mining stocks as gold producers cheered a rebound in the precious metal, while the federal and Queensland governments announced a AUD 2bln bailout for Rio Tinto's Boyne aluminium smelter. Nikkei 225 outperformed and returned to above the USD 53,000 level as Iran ceasefire hopes to alleviate the recent oil and inflation-related pressures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive, albeit to varying degrees throughout the day, as participants digested a slew of earnings releases, while the PBoC conducted a CNY 500bln on 1yr MLF operation.

Top Asian News

• Australian Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%, Low. 3.5%, High. 4.0%).
• Australian Inflation Rate MoM (Feb) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. -0.2%, High. 0.4%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI MoM (Feb) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%, Low. 3.3%, High. 3.4%).

Top European News

• UK Business Secretary Kyle is to hold emergency talks with company bosses Wednesday morning about the impact of the Iran war on the UK economy, Sky News reported.
• Nigel Farage’s Reform UK abandoned pledge to nationalise water and energy companies, according to FT.
• Danish PM Frederiksen's bloc wins the election but lacks the majority with the left bloc winning 84 seats, right bloc gets 77 seats, and Danish moderate party wins 14 seats to become kingmaker, according to AFP.
• US President Trump endorses Hungarian PM Orban, stating he's a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record delivering of phenomenal results.

FX

• DXY is slightly firmer this morning, with the trough of the day coinciding with its 21 DMA at 99.07 (vs peak of 99.42). Geopols once again the main driver of action for the index this morning; to recap, a US-led 15-point ceasefire plan has been formed, whilst Iran has denied negotiations entirely. Earlier today, the index dipped off best levels on reports that Iran had received the 15-point plan, pointing to some initial progress to diplomacy. DXY fell from 99.36 to 99.25 within a few minutes, before then reversing much of that move thereafter.
• G10s are entirely lower vs USD this morning. The net-importers of energy regions (EUR, GBP, JPY) appear to be faring better vs peers, given the pressure in crude prices in recent trade. Antipodeans are underperforming, with underperformance in the Aussie in the aftermath of the slightly softer-than-expected Australian monthly inflation data.
• EUR has had some ECB speak to digest this morning, and a few regional data points. ECB President Lagarde highlighted that “small, one-off and short-lived supply shocks can be looked through”, but noted that it “will not be paralysed by hesitation”. No move on her comments. Chief Economist Lane also provided some commentary, where he stated that market-based inflation expectations have risen since the start of the Iran conflict. Also, in the rearview, German Ifo metrics were fairly resilient, with Business Climate holding steady at 88.6 (topping expectations), whilst Expectations dipped to 86.0 (prev. 90.2). ING believes the recent Middle East conflict should only “delay, not derail” the rebound in Germany. EUR is currently a touch lower vs USD, and trades within a 1.1587-1.1630 range.
• GBP is also incrementally lower vs the USD, holding within a 1.3370-1.3436 range and trading in close proximity to its 100 DMA (1.3407), 21 DMA (1.3390) and 200 DMA (1.3433). Cable saw some fleeting upside on this morning’s inflation report, where headline printed a touch below expectations though core and services Y/Y figures topped expectations. Ultimately, the data lacks significance given it surveys the February period, before the Iran conflict began. Nonetheless, the series marginally adds to the stagflationary diagnosis the UK economy is currently subject to.
• Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY and GBP.

Central Banks

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said energy shocks can pose risks to both sides of the Fed mandate, while he doesn't know if they can cut rates again and it depends on how long the war will last. Possible that energy prices could stay high after the war ends. Likely to see a downturn in consumer sentiment. It's not an obvious playbook for what to do and it's a bad situation for a central bank.
• Fed's Barr (voter) sees rates holding steady for some time and wants evidence of sustainable inflation retreat. Labour market seems to be stabilising. Middle East conflict raises additional risk.
• ECB's Lagarde said "Small, one-off and short-lived supply shocks can be looked through. But as expected deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent, the case for action becomes stronger.". "When the energy shock hit in 2021–22, several of these channels were operating simultaneously. But there are factors today which point to a lesser pass through."; namely, the initial shock has thus far been smaller, and today's macroeconomic backdrop is more benign. "We will not act before we have sufficient information on the size and persistence of the shock and its propagation. But we will not be paralysed by hesitation: our commitment to delivering 2% inflation over the medium term is unconditional."
• ECB's Lane said the central bank will at every meeting consider what the scenario is before setting policy.
• BoJ Minutes from the January 22nd-23rd meeting stated some members expressed the recognition that the Bank was currently at the stage of closely monitoring developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.
• Riksbank Minutes (Mar): Thedeen said "Our starting point with low inflation gives us some respite until we have a clearer picture of the economic consequences of the war...".
• RBA Assistant Governor Jones said RBA is shifting focus from if to how on digital tokens.
• RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway urged New Zealand's government to pursue structural reforms to lift productivity, saying monetary policy can’t solve the cost-of-living crisis alone.

Fixed Income

• A bullish start to the day as the progress towards a ceasefire weighs on the energy space, allowing yields to ease from highs and in turn underpinning the fixed income space. Thus far, USTs have been as high as 110-30 with gains of 17 ticks at best. However, the benchmark remains shy of the WTD peak at 1110-04+ and by extension well off recent peaks.
• Elsewhere, EGBs and Gilts are bid, with gains of 43 and 53 ticks respectively, but off best levels by around 20 and 40 ticks.
• Bunds unreactive to remarks from ECB's Lagarde and Lane, which largely stuck to the script from last week. Elsewhere, the March German Ifo series was better than expected, though the readings did decline from the prior, with the exception of the Current Assessment. However, the series clearly shows that the economy is feeling the impact of the Middle East situation, but participants are yet to determine if the crisis is a lasting one or not, in terms of its economic impact. In short, further evidence of stagflation in the EZ.
• For Gilts, the bias was bullish given the above. However, the February CPI series marginally added to the stagflationary diagnosis the UK economy is currently subject to. Nonetheless, Gilts opened higher by around 35 ticks before climbing to an 88.62 peak with gains of 99 ticks at best. Ahead, BoE's Greene may weigh in on the UK's precarious economic situation.
• Germany sells EUR 1.726bln vs exp. EUR 2.0bln 2.60% 2041 and 0.00% 2052 Bund.
• Italy sells EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.75-2.0bln 2.20% 2028 BTP & EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 1.10% 2031, 1.80% 2036 BTPei.
• German KfW Head of Capital Markets said Euro Green bond issuance “likely to come early” in Q2; Issuance window is now shorter amid the conflict.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures have pulled back this morning in a continuation of the premium unwind following reports the US is proposing a one-month ceasefire mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, similar to frameworks used in Gaza and Lebanon, whilst US also sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war (full Newsquawk Analysis on the board). Iranian representatives reportedly told the Trump administration that the bar for returning to ceasefire talks remains high. There are also efforts to begin talks as soon as Thursday. The reports of US diplomatic drive have driven cautious optimism that the conflict may ease, helping lift equities and weigh on crude. Brent is trading below USD 96/bbl (in a USD 93.45-97.00/bbl range), while WTI trades a little beneath USD 89/bbl (in a USD 96.59-89.57/bbl range), despite the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and additional US troop deployments to the Middle East.
• Nat gas prices meanwhile are weaker by some 7.5% at the time of writing, trading on either side of EUR 50/MWh, whilst reports suggested Dutch gas storage levels fall to the lowest point for this time of the year since 2010.
• Spot gold edged higher overnight and returned above the USD 4,500/oz level amid softer yields and lower oil prices, with the bullion currently within USD 4,456-4,602/oz. Analysts at ING suggest that “Near term, gold remains highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, currency moves and geopolitical developments. Risks remain elevated as Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and Israel continues operations against Iranian assets.”
• Copper futures benefit alongside the positive risk environment amid hopes for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict, with 3M LME copper in a USD 12,192.00- 12,348.35/t. Desks also suggest that positioning data points to a cautious rebound in risk appetite across base metals.
• Russia's Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga have reportedly suspended crude oil and oil products loadings after drone attacks.
• Russia is reviewing its energy supply chains amid Middle-East crisis to prioritise neighbouring nations, Tass reports.
• Hungarian PM Orban said gas flows to Ukraine will stop until oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline resumes.
• Japanese PM Takaichi requests the IEA to prepare additional oil release if needed, and met with IEA Executive Director Birol.
• IEA said it stands ready to release additional volumes from strategic oil reserves as required to support market stability.
• Valero (VLO) is said to be preparing its Port Arthur refinery to restart.
• Italian PM Meloni to meet top Algerian officials today in an effort to secure alternative gas supplies, according to FT.
• US President Trump's administration is expected to lift summer gasoline regulations to curb energy prices as soon as Wednesday, according to sources.
• Venezuela's opposition leader Machado said the country requires USD 150bln to boost oil output to 5mln bpd.
• Cosco (601919 CH / 1919 HK) have resumed new bookings for standard containers to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, effective immediately.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's Commerce Ministry, on Mexico's tariff increases on Chinese and non-FTA products, said it creates investment barriers; said China reserves the right to take measures.

Geopolitics

• Iranian source says Pakistan has handed a US proposal to Iran, while the venue of talks is still being discussed, Reuters reports.
• Iran has reportedly received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal, according to AP citing Pakistani officials. The Pakistani officials described the proposal broadly as touching on sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's Ambassador to Pakistan said there were no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly, IRNA reported; said "friendly countries" seek to lay the ground for talks, "hopes these efforts can help in ending the war".
• Iran suspects US President Trump's peace talk push is a trick, while Iranian officials told countries attempting to mediate peace talks that they have been tricked twice by Trump and don't want to be fooled again, according to a source cited by Axios.
• Iranian officials have told the Trump administration via channels that they do not want to resume negotiations with Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while it prefers to negotiate with VP JD Vance.
• Iranian representatives have communicated to the Trump administration a high bar for re-entering ceasefire negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ/Dow Jones.
• United Command of Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson said US is negotiating with itself, according to IRNA.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said there is no dialogue or negotiations with the US; no one trusts US diplomacy. Forces are focussed on defense.
• Iranian Navy Commander says USS Lincoln strike group is under constant Iranian monitoring and will be targeted as soon as it comes within range of missile systems, SNN reports.
• A senior analyst with knowledge of the ongoing ceasefire talks said that discussions between the US and Iran were making quiet but swift progress.
• Israel's UN envoy said Israel is not part of negotiations between the US and Iran.
• US and Arab officials say mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are pushing to have a meeting arranged between US and Iran in the next 48 hours, but both sides remain far apart, according to WSJ.
• Trump administration increasingly using US Treasury Secretary Bessent to communicate its case on Iran as it seeks to contain market fallout, Semafor reported. Some critics called the choice unusual and a sign of dysfunction, while others said his standing in economic circles made him a credible spokesman. White House officials said he was key to reassuring markets and the public.
• US orders 82nd Airborne army paratroopers to the Middle East as earlier flagged, according to Washington Post. US officials said that seizing Kharg Island is among the plans the administration is considering.
• US Senate voted 53-47 to block resolution that would limit President Trump's Iran war power.
• Israel hit a Russian-Iranian weapons smuggling route in the Caspian Sea, according to WSJ.
• IDF said it has started a new wave of strikes targeting Iranian regime's infrastructure in Tehran.
• Five explosions at a missile site in Isfahan this morning, Al Hadath reported citing Iranian media.
• IAEA Chief Grossi said talks between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear program and other issues may be held in Islamabad in the coming days.
• Kuwait's General Authority of Civil Aviation said drones targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait's international airport, causing a fire, although there were no casualties reported.
• UK PM Starmer said UK is now working with partners on a plan to ensure flows of goods through key maritime routes, following a call with the Saudi Crown Prince.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Mar 20 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.9%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q Current Account Balance, est. -208.5b, prior -226.4b
• 4:10 pm: United States Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation on Digital Assets

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest Iran headlines, with softness earlier yesterday amid doubts on the status of any negotiations between the US and Iran giving way to more optimism late in the US session and into Asia this morning. So that sent Brent crude on a decent roundtrip, peaking at $105/bbl just after the European close but falling back to $100 by the end of the US session, and down to $99.38 as I type. Together with inflationary signals from the flash PMIs, that backdrop had seen sovereign bonds lose ground as investors priced in more hawkish central banks, though 10yr Treasuries (+1.9bps to 4.36%) pared back most of an 8bp intra-day rise by the close and have rallied another -1.6bps this morning. And while US equities struggled yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling -0.37%, its futures are up by a larger +0.72% this morning. So it's fair to say we're a bit all over the place but that sentiment net net is on the up since the later part of the US session.  

In terms of the latest on the conflict, investors were trading headlines once again, with oil prices clearly moving on the back of different reports. Initially that had led to a negative mood as the war showed no sign of easing up. Indeed, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said that strikes on Iran were continuing at “full intensity”.

However, a flurry of reporting and commentary on possible talks then emerged during US hours. A key trigger for an improved mood came just after the US equity close as Israel’s Channel 12 reported the US was proposing a one-month ceasefire for talks as it sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the conflict, with the details of the plan also reported by Axios and New York Times. A little earlier Trump said that Iran had offered a “present” related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz as a show of good faith and that Secretary of State  Rubio and Vice President  Vance were also involved in the negotiations.

So while it’s not clear just how receptive Tehran is to Washington’s diplomatic push, the news helped take some of the risk premia out of oil markets, with Brent crude dropping by about $4//bbl late in the US session to close at $99.91/bbl, and trending a little lower still to $99.38 overnight. That’s still a touch above its lows at $96/bbl right after Trump’s Monday announcement of “productive conversations” with Iran but well below the $113/bbl it had reached right before that post.

Overnight, the Wall Street Journal reported on Iran’s demands in the ongoing negotiations, which appear notably hawkish. According to the report, Tehran is seeking the closure of all US military bases in the Gulf, firm guarantees against any further attacks, an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, the complete lifting of sanctions on Iran, reparations for war-related damage, and no restrictions on its missile programme. Obviously all negotiations start from extreme positions but this is some list. US troops are building in the Gulf so everything remains very fluid 

In the meantime, yesterday also brought the flash PMIs for March, which showed that the global economy was clearly slowing under the impact of the Middle East conflict. For instance, the Euro Area composite PMI was down to a 10-month low of 50.5 (vs. 51.0 expected), and the US composite PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.4 (vs. 51.9 expected). The only bright spot was that they weren’t even worse, with both still (just about) above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. So that fits with broader market pricing, which isn’t yet at recessionary levels, although we’ve seen a clear step-down from the pre-conflict trajectory.  At the same time, the PMIs pointed to rising inflationary pressures, with the euro area composite input price series seeing its sharpest spike since March 2022, while in the US the composite output price series rose to its highest level since September 2022.

US equities struggled to gain traction yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.37%) falling back after Monday’s bounce, with big losses among some of the more cyclical sectors. Indeed, the Mag 7 fell -1.37%, and the NASDAQ fell -0.84%. Once again, the energy sector (+2.05%) was the main outperformer, climbing to another record high. And the broader mood wasn’t too negative, with most S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +0.45%. In Europe, there was also a relatively stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 up +0.43% as energy and materials stocks led the gains.

Yesterday’s US equity underperformance wasn’t helped by a couple of familiar concerns. First was a renewed bout of fears around private credit, as Ares Management limited withdrawals from one of its private credit funds. And that follows the news on Monday that Apollo was limiting withdrawals. So that hit the shares of some of the companies in space, including Ares (-1.01%) and Blackstone (-1.25%).  The second concern was in the software space, with that component of the S&P 500 down -3.43%, marking its worst day in the last month. That followed a report from The Information that Amazon Web Services were developing AI tools which could automate functions in its sales and business development functions. So that revived the prominent concerns in January and February about disruption, and several stocks like Oracle (-4.70%), Workday (-5.67%) and Salesforce (-6.23%) saw strong declines.

For sovereign bonds, the losses were more consistent on both sides of the Atlantic, as higher oil prices and the PMI releases revived investor fears about higher inflation and potential rate hikes. So investors dialled up the probability of an ECB hike at the next meeting in April, taking that back up to an 86% chance. In turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+4.8bps) and BTPs (+7.6bps) all moved higher.
Over in the US, Treasury yields had drifted 4-5bps higher on the day by the European close, before seeing some sizeable headline-driven volatility. Yields first spiked higher following a soft 2yr auction as well as a WSJ report that the US was sending a unit of airborne troops to the Middle East. However, this move reversed late in the session on increased ceasefire hopes. By the close, the 2yr yield (+3.8bps) was up to 3.89%, whilst the 10yr yield (+1.9bps) reached 4.36% before dipping further to 4.344% this morning. There were also fresh milestones for the US 10yr real yield (+4.0bps), which hit an 8-month high of 2.05%.

Asian equity markets are advancing this morning as the headline ping pong continues. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (+3.05%) is leading gains followed by the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.81%) and the KOSPI (+1.56%) as falling oil prices and revived optimism over a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East is enhancing investor sentiment in the region. Chinese equity risk is also up over a percent.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s consumer inflation eased marginally, with the headline CPI rising by +3.7% y/y in February, a decrease from +3.8% previously. However, underlying measures remain stubborn, as the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred metric, which excludes significant price fluctuations, has remained steady at 3.3%. Net net the report was a touch softer than expected but the data does not yet account for the surge in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Following the release of this data, yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bonds fell -11.3bps, trading at 4.62%, while the 10-year yields have dropped by -9.2bps, currently standing at 4.95%.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI print for February, and the German Ifo business climate indicator for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Rehn, Kocher and Villeroy, the Fed’s Miran, and the BoE’s Greene.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 08:13

TACO Vs TAW: Fade This (Equity) Rally

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Ceasefire?

The U.S., via Pakistan, and apparently consistent with negotiations being carried out by Witkoff and Kushner, has delivered a 15 point agreement for a ceasefire.

Markets responded with oil down (Brent futures, at 5:30 am are back down below $100, from a high of $105 on Tuesday).

Stock futures and treasuries are rebounding as well (even the 2-year, after the drubbing it took after yesterday’s auction noticeable for an absence of “direct” bids).

Many of the Polymarket Strait of Hormuz “prediction” markets have barely moved in response to the ceasefire proposal announcement, fwiw.

What to do?

We Have Already Had Regime Change

I think the most important thing said yesterday, was that the President, for the first time, made the case that the regime is so different (due to so many senior leaders being killed), there has been a regime change.

We have argued, since day 1, that true regime change, without boots on the ground, etc., is difficult to achieve. Finding a powerful enough faction who wants to protect their own lives and those of their family, willing to make a deal to achieve that and retain whatever power and wealth, they currently have, seemed more plausible.

While it is unclear who exactly the U.S. is negotiating with, it is important that the President has started to frame, whatever the new leadership structure is, in Iran, it meets “our” definition of regime change.

TACO vs TAW

We hear so much about “TACO” – Trump Always Chickens Out, that we don’t focus as much on the “TAW” – Trump Always Wins.

The President frames every outcome as him winning. From Liberation Day to Greenland, his steps and the end result are framed as having won.

To some degree, I think you can look at the series of social media posts and statements as “trial balloons”.

Toss out an idea and see if you can convince enough people to see it as “victory” and move on.

This may be a key component of the U.S. next steps. If enough of the public agrees that this ceasefire (or some form of ceasefire) is a “win” then he can move on.

We will get a sense of public opinion in the coming days, which I do think will shape the administration’s next steps.

The NFL “Scripted Play” Strategy Comparison of Where We are in Iran

In response to questions such as “what inning” is the conflict in Iran in, or how much longer to go, one of our generals argues (persuasively) that we are near the end of the “scripted play” segment of a football game. Many coaches “script” plays ahead of time and then execute on those plays.

Similarly, the U.S. had a list of prioritized targets. The U.S. has been going through that list. At the same time, Iran also had “scripted” responses. If this happens, then we do X.

Both sides have been war gaming, planning, strategizing about this conflict for years.

It doesn’t mean that you don’t adjust plans on the fly, but you do go through a relatively “scripted” set of actions to achieve objectives. The side that is “winning” has more ability to stick to their script.

After more than 3 weeks of fighting, both sides have experienced wins and losses. Both sides have likely seen things work, go according to plan, or even exceed their expectations. Similarly, there are likely disappointments and some consternation.

From everything we can see, it seems like the U.S. has had more wins, with Iran mounting more losses, but difficult to know. We only have some transparency into the U.S. side (and we should not have full transparency as that could put troops at risk, or make it difficult for the U.S. to negotiate, using bluffs, etc., to get the upper hand). We know very little about Iran’s expectations and where they stand relative to what they thought.

All of this leads Geopolitical Intelligence Group member after member to see 2 to 4 weeks more of fighting to make it highly probable that we can open the Strait (things could happen faster, but consensus seems to be forming around that timeframe given all that we have seen so far).

Buying Time?

The GIG, on that timeframe sees ultimate success in being able to re-open the Strait.

Part of the reason they see it potentially taking that long is that not all U.S. assets are in theater. The Marines coming from Japan are on their way. The Boxer (which Academy’s Brett Lowry served on) is now headed there. Airborne units, more vessels and more marines are all on their way.

It takes time for them to get to station and then time for them to become fully operational.

All that time, the Strait continues to see limited traffic, largely controlled by Iran.

If a 30-day ceasefire is achieved, the U.S. will be in an even stronger position then, than we are today (resupply, etc., can all occur).

The entire world can try and stock up on as much oil, gas, LNG, diesel, urea, etc., as possible during the ceasefire window.

We already have Air Supremacy (better than Air Superiority) and that is not going away in 30 days.

Should We Stop?

Many people are advocating that we have an opportunity to truly end the threat of Iran on the region, the world and even many of their own people, and that we should not stop.

Never has leadership there been in more disarray. Not only is Iran on its heels militarily, but their proxies have been hit hard and so far have been ineffective since the start of this conflict.

It is easy to see a world after all of this where Iran is not plotting for revenge, but is part of a much more robust and peaceful Middle East. Where the region’s economies can thrive, which would also help the entire global economy with cheaper and better access to all the goods and products and commodities produced in the region.

Had this outcome been sold better (or at all) to the world and even the domestic audience, we might not be as miserable and worried every time oil spikes higher. Maybe we would have the “fortitude” to withstand more affordability issues, with a clear end in sight.

Red Teaming the Negotiations

The U.S. plan seems clear:

• Get agreement and enforce it and call it regime change and win (or call it a win).

• Be better prepared (and allow the world to be better prepared) for the resumption of hostilities after the ceasefire.

What about Iran:

• Iran has now been attacked twice while “negotiating”. The element of surprise helped those attacks, but it must leave a lot of doubt in the mind of the Iranians, that any ceasefire will be honored. The “best” case, is that if they decide to take that risk, it is probably because they too are prepared to violate the ceasefire.

• What can Iran do in 30 days to offset what the U.S. and the rest of the world can do in 30 days? Iran would be insane not to think that the rest of the world will be much better prepared for any supply constrictions. It would be shocking to see anything less than the biggest restocking of energy products in the next 30 days, that the world has ever seen. So your economic leverage gets lower than it is today. It is clear that the U.S. and maybe even some forces from the rest of the world will be bigger and more prepared for the next round. Is Iran hauling missiles out of bunkers so deeply buried that they haven’t been hit?

• Does Iran believe that they can use the next 30 days to be in position to inflict more damage on a bigger, freshly supplied enemy, and a world that stocked up on oil?

• Are their own people coalescing around a common enemy? Have the attacks reduced the pressure for regime change from within? Or is the regime itself being blamed by the people, making the regime’s position even more precarious? This could be playing out in either direction and it is difficult to tell since we get so little information from within Iran.

• What happens to the IRGC members if they are not in power after a deal? To be brutally honest, the consensus view is they will be killed. This is a powerful group, who have created links between powerful families within the IRGC. They have wealth. They have power. They have been brutal. Not exactly ideal conditions to slink off, in the event of loss.

• Does Iran believe that there is some amount of “time” where the disruption to global trade (oil and more) causes the U.S. to offer better terms. Economic problems (and recession probabilities) are already growing in Asia and Europe. We had the CEO of a domestic homebuilder mention the conflict in the Middle East as a headwind for home sales in the U.S.  Yes, we are somewhat isolated, but we are not an oasis, that won’t feel the impact.

Bottom Line

It is easy to see why we would make these proposals.

• If Iran agrees to them all and we truly believe they won’t just try rebuild (as they have done time and time again, like they did after the 12 days of attacks last year), then we have truly won (even if some faction within the IRGC remains in power).

• If we change our minds and decide to attack again, unless Iran has some surprises up its sleeve (which is a possibility as they just recently launched missiles with a longer range than they have previously admitted to), we will be in better shape to attack.

It is more difficult to see why Iran decides to take the chance, rather than continue the fight now.

So, my inclination is to “fade” this rally, because I struggle more to see Iran agreeing.

Also, even if we get a “deal” and rally more, I think the rally is capped as there is already damage done to the global economy, affordability has shaken confidence again, and all the issues (especially around jobs, private credit, etc.) have not been resolved.

If anything, quietly, behind the scenes (because Iran is front and center) those issues seem to be deteriorating rather than improving.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 08:05

Russia Launches Largest One-Day Drone Blitz Of Ukraine War

At least seven people were killed in Ukraine on Tuesday after Russia launched a truly massive drone attack that's said to be the largest of the four-year war. Counting both drones and cruise missiles, 979 warheads poured into Ukrainian airspace as diplomatic efforts at ending the war remain stalled and the world's attention focused almost entirely on the US-Israeli war on Iran.  

Daylight death from above: A Russian Shahed drone above central Lviv (Reuters via New York Times)

Ukrainian officials said it began with an overnight attack comprising almost 400 long-range drones and 23 cruise missiles. Then, in a surprise twist, Russia unleashed even more in broad daylight. Startled Ukrainians were sent rushing to bomb shelters after alarms rang out around noon, as a swarm of 556 drones hammered cities across the western part of the country, including Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.

Ukraine's air force claimed it shot most of them down, with only 15 of the daytime drones supposedly hitting anything. Ukraine said the impacted structures included apartment buildings, hospitals and a UNESCO World Heritage site. Video captured the dramatic sound and site of a Shahed drone as it descended and then smashed into a what is said to be a residential building in Lviv: 

WATCH: The moment a Russian drone struck the center of Lviv. pic.twitter.com/QA3R1z4z0H

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 24, 2026

Beyond the broad-daylight aspect of the attacks, the onslaught was noteworthy for its inclusion of the historic city of Lviv in the targeting package. To this point, Lviv -- a city of 700,000 only 40 miles from Poland -- had gone relatively unscathed compared to many other Ukrainian cities. The region's governor, Maksym Kozytskyi struck an alarmed tone, posting, "The threat remains high. Stay in shelters!!!"

"Iranian Shaheds, modernized by Russia, hit a church in Lviv -- it's absolute perversion," Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly national address. "The scale of today’s attack strongly indicates that Russia has no intention of really ending this war.” 

2/ Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2026: https://t.co/I4Dhizn5EO pic.twitter.com/7XYSBEJhdn

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 25, 2026

Efforts at ending the war have gone into a lull, as the United States and western European governments are fully occupied with the war on Iran, which threatens to plunge the world into an economic catastrophe that surpasses the Great Depression. Via social media, Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska noted that global diversion of attention, writing, "Amid the news the world is drowning in every day, we will not let Ukrainian grief get lost, become just another statistic, a headline that will be casually skipped over."

Though the war on Iran is depriving the Ukraine war of attention, it will likely have a profound effect on the battlefields, as surging energy prices will give a major shot in the arm to Russia's armed forces, just as the war is set for its latest return to fighting season. Per reporting in Financial Times earlier in March, Russia is generating up to $150 million per day in extra budget revenue amid its increased taxes on oil exports to markets like China and India, with potential total added revenue reaching billions by the end of this month. 

...it's just one more way Trump's decision to start a regime-change war on Iran is looking like one of the greatest strategic blunders in US history. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 08:00

Days After Trump Delays Xi Summit, Chinese Carrier Unveils 101-Jet Airbus Deal

Days after President Donald Trump delayed a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the now 26-day-old U.S.-Iran conflict, one of China's top state-owned airlines unveiled a major narrow-body aircraft deal with Airbus.

China Eastern Airlines announced a $15.8 billion deal for 101 Airbus A320neo aircraft on Wednesday, with deliveries scheduled between 2028 and 2032.

The Shanghai-based carrier, which operates domestic and international passenger and cargo flights, said it negotiated prices well below list value and expects to fund the order through a mix of internal resources and external financing, with installment payments not expected to materially affect cash flow or operations.

The timing of the China Eastern Airlines-Airbus deal comes as a report earlier this month said China was expected to announce a massive deal for 500 Boeing 737 Max jets, with possible orders for 100 widebody aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 777Xs.

But the Trump-Xi summit was originally planned for March 31 through April 2. Trump requested that China delay it by "a month or so," explaining, "We got a war going on. I think it's important that I be here."

As seen in past trade war flare-ups between the two superpowers, aircraft orders have often signaled goodwill, while restrictions on jet parts have signaled heightened tensions.

At the same time, surprisingly, Beijing is not angrier at Trump, even though the U.S.-Iran conflict has sparked a fuel crisis across Asia.

The key question now is whether a future Trump-Xi summit will still yield a Boeing jet deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 07:45

Italy Cuts Fuel Taxes As Iran Crisis Drives Oil Higher; Germany Refuses Relief Despite Windfall

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

A robust market economy unfolds its maximum absorption capacity precisely during external shocks. In such cases, policymakers would essentially only need to sit still, as the storm clouds usually pass on their own—true to the principle that high prices are the cure for high prices. This, of course, only applies to energy markets if governments have not already removed themselves from the equation through grotesque political interventions long before the crisis.

For European economies, however, the opposite holds true. They are overregulated, fiscally overburdened, and structurally fragile systems that can barely deploy effective shock absorbers in the face of the Iran crisis. High energy prices hit relentlessly, and national policy responses now diverge sharply across competing European jurisdictions.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reacted swiftly to the tightening situation at the country’s gas stations. Following a cabinet decision on March 18, an immediate reduction in fuel excise taxes came into force via decree, applying to both gasoline and diesel. Prices are expected to fall by 25 cents per liter—across the board for households, businesses, and all market participants, according to government sources.

In Italy, policymakers appear to keep a close ear to the ground—attuned to the realities faced by citizens, businesses, and traders alike. In stark contrast to the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Rome is opting for relief measures aimed at the private sector amid a crisis that is steadily eroding purchasing power. Meanwhile, Merz and his finance minister Lars Klingbeil are entangled in debates over tax increases—detached from the Hormuz disruption and largely disconnected from the realities of workers, commuters, and companies. Berlin’s fiscal apparatus appears self-referential and monotonous, advancing to the next act of its own tragicomedy.

Italy—once more statist in spirit than its northern rival—now acts swiftly, pragmatically, and decisively. The tax cut will initially remain in place for 20 days but is likely to be extended should the situation in the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz fail to improve. The Italian government thus demonstrates a capacity to act that is sorely lacking in Germany. Merz, by contrast, remains hesitant when it comes to rolling back state intervention—a committed statist who, even in a moment of acute crisis, fails to initiate the necessary fiscal steps to shield businesses and consumers from the gathering storm.

In Berlin, policymakers continue to deny both citizens and businesses the long-overdue relief from soaring fuel prices—despite the fact that roughly two-thirds of the price flows to the state through various taxes. Perhaps that is precisely why the issue is being postponed. What prevails in Berlin is a mentality of extraction, even as public coffers run dry. Spending cuts that could create room for relief are being avoided at all costs in the 2026 super-election year.

The situation in Rome is markedly different: In addition to cutting fuel taxes, the Italian government is granting tax credits to transport companies, directly linked to verified diesel consumption.

These credits are intended to relieve the logistics sector—one of the hardest hit by rising energy prices—and to prevent escalating costs and extreme volatility in energy markets from fully passing through to freight rates and consumer prices.

But the measures do not stop there. The Italian government has quickly assembled a broader package aimed at curbing potential price speculation at the pump. To prevent excessive markups, an anti-speculation mechanism is being introduced to detect and limit unjustified price increases.

In practice, this means that retail fuel prices will be tightly linked to actual movements in global crude oil prices, ensuring that unjustified markups are immediately suppressed.

Oil companies and gas station operators are required to regularly report their prices to authorities, which monitor the entire supply and distribution chain. Deviations from price movements justified by changes in crude oil markets may result in sanctions.

In the acute emergency triggered by the Iran crisis, the executive power of the Italian government proves to be a clear advantage. It can enact temporary measures swiftly via decree. The decision to cut fuel taxes is particularly notable given that Italy, like Germany, imposes very high fuel taxes. Up to 62% of gasoline prices and around 58% of diesel prices are collected by the state.

The importance of the tax cut became evident on commodity markets Thursday afternoon, when WTI crude rose to around $114 per barrel. The attack on Iran’s South Pars energy complex delivered another shock to the market overnight.

For Italians, there is hope that this acute crisis will ultimately lead to a broader realization—especially for Transport Minister Matteo Salvini and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—that relieving citizens of fuel costs is fundamentally the right approach. Mobility and affordable transport costs remain key competitive factors.

The state must learn to exercise restraint. A lean state protects citizens in times of crisis far better, thanks to its flexibility, than the bloated bureaucratic apparatus we know today. Though this is a conclusion Germany’s chancellor and finance minister would strongly dispute.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 07:20

Volkswagen May Convert German Auto Plant Into Iron Dome War Factory

Struggling German automaker Volkswagen may soon begin transforming its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system, according to a new Financial Times report. This reveals a new reality for the West: a nation's auto industry can become a dual-use industrial base in times of conflict.

FT reports that Israel's Rafael Advanced Defence Systems is in talks with VW regarding its troubled Osnabrück plant to produce Iron Dome components. 

"The aim is to save everybody, maybe even to grow," said a source with knowledge of the talks. "The potential is so high. But it's also an individual decision for the workers if they want to be part of the idea."

Production of the Iron Dome part could be operational in 12 to 18 months, the source said, as long as factory workers agree to switch to weapons production.

The Osnabrück factory would be transformed to produce Iron Dome components, including heavy-duty trucks that carry the system's missiles, launchers, and power plants (commonly called generators).

The actual missiles, however, would be produced at a separate facility in Germany, operated by weapons specialists under Rafael's plans.

News of this potential factory conversion comes as Israel, the US, and allied forces in the Gulf region are depleting their stockpiles of interceptors to counter IRGC missiles and drones.

FT noted that VW has been searching for the next chapter for the Osnabrück factory amid weak demand and a flood of cheap autos from China.

The importance of keeping an industrial base, such as auto factories, operational is that, in wartime, production lines can easily be converted to manufacture missiles, tanks, and other war machines.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 05:45

EU and Australia Seal Trade Deal Amid Strategic Resource Concerns

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

It took an astonishing eight years before the European Union and Australia were able, at the beginning of the week, to agree on a joint trade agreement. What EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese presented in Australia’s capital Canberra represented a far-reaching reduction of direct tariffs over a medium-term period.

Over 90 percent of goods will be able to circulate freely between the two continents, of course always under the application of common harmonization regulations and, above all, European climate protection rules. This must be taken into account in every so-called free trade agreement. The regulations do not disappear for businesses. In the case of agreements with the EU, they are largely extended to the trading partners.

In every trade agreement where the European Union is a signatory, Brussels tries to weave massive climate protectionism into global trade. In a sense, a kind of postmodern climate colonialism. That is the concept of free trade as Europeans practice it.

The agreement to be signed is expected, according to participants, to increase EU exports to Australia by up to one third and expand investments by European companies in Australia by up to eighty percent. The strategic direction is clear: the EU is attempting to free itself in the critical area of raw materials, such as rare earths, from China’s grip. And Australia indeed has a rich catalogue of resources to offer.

Trade agreements like the one with Australia follow a very clear strategy. On one side, awareness seems to be growing of supply issues caused by the Iran war. On the other side, European industry is pushing to open new sales markets and strengthen the relative competitive position of companies, which have been under heavy pressure in Germany’s industrial heartland, especially during the energy crisis.

Clearly, Brussels is ready to combine gains in manufacturing with a corresponding reduction of protectionist rules in agriculture. This creates potential conflict, as seen with the EU’s Mercosur agreement with the South American countries Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Brazil in recent weeks.

The agreement, following a similar spirit to the one with Australia, is provisionally set to take effect in May. This occurs despite major political players such as France and Italy already announcing strong opposition to the pact, which will particularly place European farmers—and thus European agriculture—under severe competitive pressure, since South America follows a very different regulatory framework than the EU.

In the case of the Australian agreement, there was largely calm on this front; the Australian market is too small for the potentially imported volumes of beef, which are to be quota-shipped to Europe, to cause major concerns.

From the perspective of the German economy, the Australian trade contract can be roughly outlined as follows: while the crisis sectors of the automotive industry, mechanical engineering, and the chemical industry will benefit from a radical reduction of Australian import tariffs, the EU will gain access to rare earths, cobalt, and lithium mined in Australia and must accept that beef production will increasingly reach the European market.

Ultimately, Australia accounts for only around one percent of EU trade. The country ranks twentieth among the EU’s most important trading partners.

And yet, it is a small step toward freeing itself from China’s grip, which, as seen last year, does not hesitate for a moment to leverage its geopolitical tools in raw materials like rare earths, positioning its politically controlled export engine in trade policy.

Diversification is everything. Building reserves is all the more important, as we know today, given dwindling gas storage and missing petroleum reserves.

Strategic reserves are a political acknowledgment of reality. The fact that European policy once allowed itself the luxury of prioritizing climate ideology and transformational fantasies over real-world necessities now exacts a bitter price.

Trade competitors such as China or the United States hold reserves in fundamental areas of energy and raw materials that can secure the supply for the economy and society for more than a year. Acute crises, such as the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz, thus appear comparatively easier to manage and control.

Fundamentally, European trade policy must follow this path. It must clearly focus on the strategic interests of its own economy and overcome ideological missteps if it still wants to save what can be saved in the severe crisis of European industry.

Supply chains and the fundamental supply of raw materials and energy must be central topics on the European political agenda. Reintegration of Russia as a gas supplier, the development of domestic resources—whether fracking gas, North Sea gas, or domestic coal deposits—should buy time to develop a pan-European nuclear strategy, which would take many years.

As long as these considerations are not incorporated into a comprehensive overall strategy, the Australian trade agreement remains piecemeal—a small, hardly relevant move on the geopolitical chessboard, dominated by the Washington-Peking duopoly.

 

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 05:00

"Changed My Entire Life": Top OnlyFans Creators Mourn Death Of Billionaire Founder

Top OnlyFans creator pornstar Sophie Rain, who has earned tens of millions of dollars on the adult content platform over the last several years, mourned the death of OnlyFans owner and billionaire Leonid Radvinsky on Monday.

Rain, one of the platform's highest earners who has reportedly grossed over $100 million since 2023, thanked Radvinsky for changing her life.

"I don't even know how to put this into words. That man built something that changed my entire life. Like, I grew up on food stamps and now I can take care of my whole family because of a platform he created. I will never forget that," Rain told the New York Post in an exclusive interview.

Rain said, "Before OnlyFans, I was waitressing and barely making rent. That platform gave me everything. And that doesn't happen without someone building it in the first place."

She told the NY Post that she never met the billionaire, "but everything I have right now is because he built something that gave people like me a chance," adding, "Sending so much love to his family. This is really, really sad."

Piper Rockelle, another OnlyFans adult star, told the outlet, "I've only been on the platform since January, but it already changed everything for me. Like, I owe a lot to what that man built … I don't really know what to say other than thank you for building something that gave people like me a shot. I wouldn't be where I am right now without it."

Radvinsky died of cancer at the early age of 43 on Monday, according to a statement from the company. His death raises new questions about the platform's future ownership, especially since he reportedly placed his majority stake in a trust in 2024.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 04:15

Being A Pedophile Now Not Enough To Warrant Deportation

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A convicted paedophile migrant who failed to disclose his child sex offence when applying to stay in Britain has won an appeal against deportation – because a judge ruled the omission was simply an “honest mistake.”

YES, REALLY.

Edi Cardoso Ramos, who was convicted in Portugal of molesting a five-year-old child, can now fight to remain in the UK after the Upper Tribunal accepted his explanation that he thought the immigration form only asked about UK convictions. 

Paedophile migrant who failed to disclose child sex offence after coming to UK wins appeal against deportation as judge rules it was 'honest mistake' https://t.co/PQgn7qiayL

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 23, 2026

This decision leaves British families wondering why foreign sex offenders keep getting second chances while the system fails to protect the public.

The Daily Mail reports that Ramos was convicted in 2014, when he was 19, of a serious sexual offence involving the molestation of a five-year-old child. He received a three-year suspended custodial sentence. He migrated to the UK in 2018. In 2020, when applying for leave to remain, he denied having any prior convictions on the form. He later claimed he misunderstood the question, thinking it asked only about convictions in the United Kingdom.

In 2024, Ramos was caught with a prostitute in his car and accepted a police caution for outraging public decency. A background check then revealed his 2014 conviction in Portugal, prompting the Home Office to start deportation proceedings. He appealed the decision.

Judge Paul Lodato of the Upper Tribunal of the Immigration and Asylum Chamber allowed the appeal. The judge stated: “Does (Ramos) represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to ‘a fundamental interest of society’? It was agreed that if I conclude that he does not, his appeal falls to be allowed.”

Molesting toddlers doesn’t represent a genuine threat, apparently.

The judge continued: “Having considered this issue very carefully, I am not satisfied, based on the evidence before me, that the (Home Office) has established that the threat (Ramos) represents is a present threat.”

On the non-disclosure, Judge Lodato ruled: “I accept (Ramos’s) explanation as being credible. I find that he made an honest mistake when he answered the question about his previous convictions and that his failure to disclose the material fact of his 2014 conviction in Portugal was not dishonest.”

He added: “I therefore do not consider (Ramos’s) non-disclosure of his 2014 conviction when he completed his 2020 leave to remain application indicates that (Ramos) is a present threat… (Ramos) is a genuine and sufficiently serious threat, but one that is not present.”

For these reasons, the appeal was allowed and Ramos can now fight deportation from a fresh hearing.

Social media erupted in fury at the ruling.

Same judge who says adult migrants are children… ?

This judge is an enemy of the British people. Get him out. pic.twitter.com/CqaZS1XNn9

— Emily Wilding Davison??????? (@Wommando) March 23, 2026

These so called judges are simply not fit for purpose. Crass decisions such as this just show that a mass clearout of the Judiciary is required.

— Dave (@DaveKent101) March 23, 2026

"oh, you forgot that you were a convicted sex criminal. Easily done. On your way"

?

— Tom Foster SDP ????????? Afuera! (@tompfoster) March 23, 2026

File this latest farce alongside a growing litany of ridiculous reasons sex criminals and other offenders have dodged deportation under the same broken system.

Albanian migrant Klevis Disha, who entered the UK illegally in 2001 under a false name and was later convicted for possessing £250,000 in dirty money, successfully fought deportation by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son – who apparently dislikes “foreign” chicken nuggets because of texture issues. 

First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso accepted the Article 8 family-life argument. Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf said: “A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created.”

A Somali criminal, schizophrenic and alcohol-dependent for nearly 20 years, was allowed to stay because deportation would cause him excessive “stress” and breach Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights by worsening his mental health. Deputy Upper Tribunal Judge Ian Jarvis ruled: “I conclude that the weight of the evidence before the Tribunal indicates that the [man] will very quickly become noncompliant with his medication… without the 24/7 support and monitoring which he currently receives in the United Kingdom.”

An insane Pakistani paedophile who reoffended by assaulting a teenage girl after release from prison for sex offences escaped deportation because his “uncontrollable” alcoholism would allegedly lead to “inhuman or degrading treatment” in Pakistan without proper treatment. He remains in Britain.

A separate Pakistani migrant arrived on a spousal visa and was convicted of attempting to cause children under 16 to engage in sexual acts after grooming decoy “barely pubescent girls” online while his wife was hospitalised with Covid. He won his appeal because deportation would be “unduly harsh” on his British children and family life.

Migrant shambles as unnamed judge lets paedophile we cannot name (to protect HIS privacy) stay in UK because pervert's Pakistani family might disapprove of him lusting after 'barely pubescent girls' https://t.co/4by6HxEcZ6

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) February 7, 2025

The judge even factored in the wife’s lack of intimate relations during her illness. Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick called the case “disgraceful,” adding: “The public are right to think that our immigration system is rigged in the interests of people who mean us harm, illegal migrants, against the interests of the British public.”

And as the Daily Mail also revealed, another migrant won asylum by claiming he was gay and fleeing persecution – only to be exposed with a secret wife and child back in Cameroon. 

Revealed: Migrant granted asylum in Britain after claiming he was gay has a secret wife and child in Cameroon https://t.co/TMiC6wcoUI

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 22, 2026

The pattern is undeniable. Activist judges, human rights laws that handcuff the Home Office, and a political class addicted to open borders keep handing victories to those who should never have been here in the first place. 

Britain’s children and communities deserve better. The safety of the public must come first – not endless excuses for foreign criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 03:30

New Details: US Pilot Suffered Shrapnel Wounds After 'Unkillable' F-35 Was Struck By Iran

Very little is known about last week's incident which forced an 'unkillable' F-35 fighter jet to make an emergency landing at an airbase in the Middle East last week, amid reports it took on Iranian fire.

Iranian state media said it was shot and successfully downed. Al Jazeera observed that "If true, this would be the first time during the war that an F-35, the cornerstone of Washington’s aerial firepower, has been struck by Iran."

US CENTCOM file image

US Central Command in the wake of the downing has only offered minimal disclosure, merely confirming the jet was struck, was forced into an emergency landing and that the pilot remains in "stable" condition.

But now Air & Space Forces Magazine has some further details, reporting that the US Air Force pilot was wounded by shrapnel during the attack:

A U.S. Air Force F-35A pilot suffered shrapnel wounds after their aircraft was damaged during a combat mission over Iran on March 19, people familiar with the matter told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The aircraft was hit by ground fire. Though U.S. Central Command has not provided details, the aircraft was most likely damaged by a surface-to-air missile rather than by small-arms fire or another projectile, given the altitude at which the F-35 typically flies. The incident is under investigation, according to U.S. military officials.

It's believed to have been a likely surface-to-air missile given the high-altitude profile of the F-35, making small arms basically an impossibility unless for some reason it was flying very close to the earth and at a slow speed.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had released footage days ago claiming to show the strike, stating: "The fate of the fighter jet is unclear and under investigation, and the likelihood of its crash is very high."

Earlier in the conflict three US F-16s were downed over Kuwait in what the Pentagon has somewhat dubious claimed was a friendly fire incident.

The CENTCOM press release had stated that "During active combat—that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones — the U.S. Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses."

"All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation," it continued. This has naturally provoked immense skepticism from many journalists and pundits.

*  *  * Spring is here, got seeds?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 21:50

Jack Smith Subpoenaed Records On Kash Patel: Documents

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The team behind the Arctic Frost investigation subpoenaed years’ worth of records on Kash Patel, who now heads the FBI, according to documents released on March 24.

Former special counsel Jack Smith testifies about his investigations into President Donald Trump, before the House Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Jan. 22, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Former special counsel Jack Smith subpoenaed Verizon for Patel’s phone records from October 2020 through February 2023, the documents, made public by Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee, showed.

Patel was part of the Trump administration from 2019 through January 2021. After the Biden administration took office, Patel began a nonprofit foundation and worked as a consultant, frequently appearing in media to back Trump and his policies.

The subpoenas asked for various details about Patel’s accounts, including financial information and text messages, the records showed. Text and call logs were among the requested details.

Patel disclosed the subpoenas in February, describing them as “outrageous and deeply alarming.”

He said that previous FBI leaders “secretly subpoenaed my own phone records—along with those of now White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles—using flimsy pretexts and burying the entire process ​in prohibited case files designed to evade all oversight.”

The FBI declined to comment further on Tuesday.

Arctic Frost started in 2022. The effort, which involved Smith and FBI officials, featured subpoenas involving more than a dozen Republican members of Congress and the seizure of a phone used by President Donald Trump, whom prosecutors ultimately charged with interfering with certification of the 2020 presidential election for alleging that voter fraud took place.

The case was dropped when Trump in 2024 won a second term in office.

Smith has defended the investigation, telling lawmakers in January that he properly investigated “attempts to interfere with the lawful transfer of power” and that the subpoenaed records were acquired “to understand the scope of that conspiracy, who they were seeking to coerce, who they were seeking to influence, who was seeking to help them.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, first obtained records on Arctic Frost and released them in early 2025.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), chairman of the committee’s Subcommittee on Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action, and Federal Rights, said during a hearing on Tuesday that Arctic Frost was “a modern Watergate” that targeted lawmakers and people involved with Trump’s reelection efforts, including Patel and Wiles.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said that the subpoenas of Patel made sense, because the FBI director “made himself a fact witness in that investigation” by making comments on podcasts. Whitehouse said that Patel’s grand jury testimony should be made public.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 21:25

Here's Where Rent Growth In The US Is Finally Slowing

After years of rapid increases, rent growth in the U.S. is finally slowing—and in some cities, prices are even declining, according to Marketwatch.

From January 2025 to January 2026, rents rose 2.8%, a smaller increase than the year before and lower than pre-pandemic norms, marking the slowest growth since 2021. This cooling trend, driven in part by a surge in new housing supply, suggests the market is stabilizing after an intense period of price escalation. At the same time, easing inflation, steady mortgage rates around 6%, and rising wages could gradually improve overall housing affordability and give households more purchasing power.

Still, housing continues to feel expensive for most Americans because prices surged dramatically during the pandemic and have remained elevated. Income growth hasn’t kept pace, leaving many households stretched and limiting how much relief people actually feel.

Even though rent increases have nearly stalled—growing just over 1% annually in some segments—prices are still significantly higher than they were five years ago, with some cities seeing increases far above the national average. As a result, about half of renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, underscoring the ongoing affordability crisis.

Marketwatch writes that recent rent declines also haven’t been evenly distributed. The biggest drops are concentrated in fast-growing Sun Belt cities like Austin, where rents have fallen notably from their 2022 peaks, along with places such as New Orleans and Denver. However, these declines often follow unusually steep increases in prior years.

Meanwhile, higher-income renters have benefited more from the recent slowdown, as prices for more expensive units have softened the most. This has pulled down overall averages, making the market appear more affordable than it feels for many.

In contrast, lower-cost rentals saw sharper increases during the boom and have experienced little meaningful relief since. Prices for these units rose faster between 2019 and 2025 and have not declined as much, leaving lower-income renters with fewer gains from the current slowdown. Overall, while the cooling rent market is a step in the right direction, it hasn’t yet translated into widespread affordability, and financial pressure remains especially high for those already most burdened by housing costs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 21:00

IRS Data Show Average Tax Refund Up Over 10% This Year

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The average tax refund is 10.8 percent higher this year when compared with the same time period in 2025, according to data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on March 20.

The figures show that as of March 13, the average refund for individual filers for 2026 was $3,623, up from $3,271 from 2025.

Around 69.7 million individual tax returns have been received by the IRS so far, the agency said, around 1 percent down from the same time period last year. An estimated 164 million taxpayers are expected to file this season, which started on Jan. 26 and will run through April 15.

The release suggests that the average refund size has gradually declined over the past several weeks of filing updates released by the IRS. On Feb. 20, according to the figures, tax refunds increased more than 14 percent over the previous year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in January touted new tax cuts that were included under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year by saying they would lead to “substantial refunds” for families.

“They’re [going to] change their withholding and have bigger take-home pay every two weeks, every month. So, it’s really an exciting time,” he said in a Fox News interview at the time.

The tax refunds come as gasoline prices have surged to nearly $4 per gallon on average nationwide as the price for a barrel of oil has increased amid the U.S. war with Iran that started in late February.

The average price of gasoline ​in America has risen by around $1 per gallon following the strikes on Iran, which prompted Iranian attacks on energy installations around the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the global oil supply.

The release of IRS data last week comes as the agency announced there is still around $1.2 billion in unclaimed tax refunds for the year 2022, while it also estimated that the median refund for that year is around $686. Taxpayers who haven’t filed a Form 1040 return for the 2022 tax year have until April 15 to submit their returns.

On March 10, officials said that nearly 45 percent of the returns used Schedule 1-A, the form for the new deductions, including approximately 15.5 million that took advantage of tax breaks on overtime and 3.5 million that avoided paying taxes on tips.

“Halfway through this filing season, the Working Families Tax Cuts are already delivering meaningful relief to middle- and low-income taxpayers, increasing after-tax income and putting more money back into the pockets of American families, workers, and small business owners,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

The IRS added that taxpayers who may be seeking their 2022 tax refund could see those returns held if they haven’t filed returns for either 2023 or 2024, according to a March 20 news release.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, backed by Republicans and signed by President Donald Trump in July 2025, included $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, including making his 2017 tax rates permanent.

It also added tax deductions on tips, overtime, and auto loans. There’s a $6,000 deduction for older adults who earn no more than $75,000 a year, while the measure also boosted the $2,000 child tax credit to $2,200.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 20:35

Bud Light & Budweiser Continue To Struggle As Dylan Mulvaney Ad Disaster Nears Three-Year Mark

Ahead of next week's three-year anniversary of Anheuser-Busch's most epic marketing ad blunder ever, the Bud Light backlash remains intact and should serve as a case study for generations in how far-left wokeism in corporate America can destroy decades of brand-building overnight.

What began as a viral TikTok promotion featuring Dylan Mulvaney, a man pretending to be a woman, has since become one of the clearest examples of self-inflicted brand suicide in recent consumer history. The latest beer trends from Goldman suggest the brand has yet to fully recover nearly three years later. 

In the latest beer trends report, a team of Goldman analysts led by senior consumer analyst Bonnie Herzog tapped its beer distributor contacts, representing around 60 distributors - or roughly 170,000 retail outlets and about 28% of total U.S. outlets that sell alcohol - and found continued dismal Bud Light consumption trends among Americans.

"Bud Light's performance continues to level off, even with additional resources being put behind the brand," Herzog wrote in the note published to clients on Tuesday morning.

Herzog continued, "In terms of specific brands, a distributor noted Michelob Ultra is growing, while Bud Light and Budweiser are struggling."

To be fair, beer trends have been declining overall in recent years as consumers shift away from alcohol, either due to health trends or because some are gravitating toward marijuana.

The good news for the industry is that 54% of beer distributors expect "a stronger summer selling season," according to Herzog, who added that volumes are expected to decline by about 1% this year, while noting that Constellation Brands is set to be the "clear outperformer."

Herzog reiterated a "Buy" rating on Constellation Brands. More details are available in the full Goldman note for professional subscribers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 20:10

"Emergencies" Requiring Coal Plants To Stay Open Need Not Be Imminent, DOE Tells Court

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The U.S. Department of Energy’s secretary has broad authority under the Federal Power Act to declare emergencies to keep power plants from retiring, and those emergencies don’t have to be imminent, DOE told a federal appeals court last week in response to challenges over its orders keeping a Michigan coal plant online.

“The statute’s text grants the Secretary discretion to determine that an emergency exists,” DOE said in a March 17 brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. “This expressly includes a sudden increase in demand, a shortage of generation facilities, or other causes.”

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright speaks during a meeting with oil and gas executives in the East Room of the White House on Jan. 9, 2026, in Washington, D.C. DOE’s secretary has broad authority under the Federal Power Act to declare emergencies to keep power plants from retiring, the department told a federal appeals court on March 17, 2026

The brief is the DOE’s first defense in court of the 90-day emergency orders it began issuing last year to prevent fossil-fueled power plants from retiring. So far, the orders have targeted six power plants — all but one coal-fired — totaling about 4,300 MW.

Generally, in those orders, DOE said the power plants need to keep running to prevent blackouts in the face of rising electric demand. The DOE has not allowed any of those orders to lapse, using its authority under the Federal Power Act’s section 202(c) to issue new 90-day orders when the old ones expire.

The brief was in response to challenges brought against the DOE over its May 23 order directing Consumers Energy to continue running the 1,407-MW, coal-fired J.H. Campbell power plant in West Olive, Michigan, past its May 31 retirement date. The department has renewed that order three times since.

Piles of coal can be seen at Consumers Energy's J.H. Campbell Generating Plant in West Olive,Mich. on January10, 2026.

Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois as well as the Sierra Club and other groups have challenged the emergency order. In part, they contend that DOE failed to show the Midcontinent region around the Campbell power plant faces an energy emergency.

In its brief, DOE said the Federal Power Act defines emergency broadly.

“It does not require imminence or an unexpected development,” DOE said. “The Secretary is also granted broad discretion to use his ‘judgment’ on what ‘will best meet the emergency and serve the public interest.’”

Moreover, the statute lacks strict procedural requirements, according to DOE.

“Contrary to Petitioners’ contentions, the Secretary was not required to prepare any particular analysis, weigh alternatives, or to select the best theoretically possible emergency response,” the department said.

When DOE considered issuing an emergency order for the Campbell power plant, the department found that electricity demand was rising, major power plants were retiring and new power sources weren’t coming online fast enough, it said. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator was at “elevated risk” for reliability problems and higher than normal temperatures were expected, DOE told the court.

“The Secretary interpreted the totality of this evidence and applied his expertise to find that an emergency exists,” DOE said.

DOE noted that Secretary Chris Wright ordered the Campbell plant to operate under “economic dispatch” to reduce ratepayer costs.

If the court finds a legal flaw in the 202(c) order, it should send the issue back to DOE instead of vacating the order and limiting its ability to issue similar orders, government lawyers argued.

“The Secretary must be able to use section 202(c) to protect public health and safety, particularly in anticipation of extreme weather events like the recent Winter Storm Fern and the ensuing, prolonged cold snap,” the DOE said.

In the seven months after DOE ordered the Campbell plant to stay online, it produced 3.6 million MWh, down 39% from 5.9 million MWh generated over the same period in 2024, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data. 

Consumers Energy spent about $254 million keeping the Campbell plant operating per the DOE orders through December, according to a Feb. 10 filing at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. It received $119 million in revenue from running the plant in the second half of last year and has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for permission to recoup $135 million in costs from MISO ratepayers, said CMS Energy Corp., which owns Consumers.

Consumers urged the appeals court in a brief to not weigh in on the cost-recovery issue, which is being handled by FERC.

The utility asked the court to “avoid unintended consequences for those separate proceedings, including making clear that any decision here does not assume the availability of refunds or otherwise affect FERC’s decision-making in those separate proceedings.”

DOE continues to issue emergency orders to keep other fossil-fueled power plants running. On March 16 it issued its second emergency order for TransAlta’s 730-MW, coal-fired Centralia power plant in Washington. The company must make the plant available to run until mid-June under the order. The company had planned to shut it down at the end of 2025.

TransAlta’s president and CEO, John Kousinioris, said during an earnings call in February that the company was complying with the orders, but he did not expect the plant to run given “how flush” the state was with hydropower.

“Our primary focus is more on getting clarity on the existing order,” including how TransAlta will recoup its expenses from keeping the unit online, Kousinioris said.

Other generators under 202(c) orders are in Colorado, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 19:45

California Schools Try Rap While Scores Keep Falling

Authored by David Manney via PJ Media,

California's education system continues to search for answers while student performance struggles to recover. In one case, the Merced City School District approved a contract worth about $270,000 to bring a rap-based curriculum into classrooms, even as academic performance remains weak.

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, file

The district serves over 11,000 students, yet only 13% meet math proficiency standards. The program includes a summer “Rap Camp” and specialized programming tied to cultural themes, all framed to boost student engagement.

The curriculum comes from School Yard Rap, founded by Brandon Brown, a former teacher who promotes music-driven instruction. Lessons include songwriting, DJ work, and performances that connect history and culture through rhythm and storytelling.

“The School Yard Rap curriculum transforms history lessons into relatable characters presented through songs and storytelling—resulting in emotional connection,” the School Yard Rap website states. 

Established in 2016, School Yard Rap, which operates in 28 states, presents “a world where learning meets rhythm, exploring diverse cultures and subjects through interactive music-infused modules.”

Merced has handed out $610,000 worth of contracts to School Yard Rap, the Post reported. Fox News Digital has reached out to the school district and School Yard Rap. 

Supporters believe that approach helps students stay interested in school, an argument that sounds appealing, yet it doesn't resolve a basic concern. Students struggling with reading and math need direct, structured teaching that builds skills step by step, while a program centered on performance and expression risks shifting attention away from those core needs.

The financial side raises its own concerns; the district has already committed over $600,000 in total contracts tied to the program, a level of spending that stands out in a district already dealing with low performance and limited resources. 

When outcomes remain weak, large investments in unproven strategies invite scrutiny, making leaders accountable for whether those dollars would deliver more value if directed toward tutoring, teacher support, or curriculum improvement that's focused on the fundamentals.

Federal officials have also taken notice. Harmeet Dhillion, assistant attorney general for civil rights at the DOJ, has warned that race-based programming raises legal concerns, stating that offering benefits based solely on race would violate federal law if proven true.

The Merced program includes an “African American Affinity Group,” which has drawn attention because of how it organizes students. Those details place the district in a position where innovation intersects with legal boundaries.

That's a concern that doesn't exist in isolation. Attorney General Pam Bondi and federal civil rights officials have recently taken action in other California districts over programs that classify or treat students differently based on race.

Federal filings have challenged policies that assign benefits or resources using racial categories, arguing that such practices conflict with equal protection principles. These actions signal a broader push to examine how districts design programs and whether they comply with federal law.

California's education leadership continues to face pressure amid lagging results. State Superintendent Tony Thurmond oversees a system where many students remain below grade level in reading and math. Years of declining performance have created urgency, yet urgency alone doesn't guarantee sound decisions.

Districts often reach for new ideas in hopes of turning things quickly around. Some ideas may help in limited cases, yet large-scale adoption without clear evidence can deepen existing problems rather than solve them.

Local school boards and administrators are responsible for these choices, deciding how to allocate funding, which programs to adopt, and how to measure success. When a district with low performance heavily invests in a music-based curriculum, it signals a shift in priorities.

Families watching those decisions want reassurance that leaders remain focused on academic growth, not just student engagement. Engagement matters, but it doesn't replace the need for measurable progress in reading, writing, and math.

Merced's situation reflects a larger issue across parts of the country, where education systems under pressure turn to bold or unconventional strategies. Some of those strategies generate attention and short-term excitement, while long-term improvement depends on whether students gain the skills they need to succeed beyond the classroom. Without that foundation, new programs risk becoming distractions rather than solutions.

California schools don't lack funding or attention; they face a deeper challenge rooted in priorities and execution. A rap-based curriculum may draw interest, but interest alone doesn't raise test scores or close learning gaps.

Leaders must decide whether to continue experimenting or return to methods that have proven results over time. Students deserve clarity, consistency, and a focus on skills that prepare them for the future.

Get more in-depth analysis and unfiltered insight by joining PJ Media VIP today. Right now, save 60% with promo code FIGHT when you sign up. Support independent writing and unlock exclusive content that stays focused on what matters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 18:55

Grounding Planes 'A Distinct Possibility': Tightened Global Fuel Supply Hitting Asian Nations Hardest

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has again warned of a "critical energy situation" as oil and gas markets convulse, underscoring growing fears of supply shocks, at a moment President Trump early this week claimed the Strait of Hormuz could "reopen very soon" if talks with Iran succeed - though Tehran has flatly denied any negotiations are underway as confusion reigns over the status of backchannel dialogue. 

Already one country says it is suffering a fuel shortage crisis, amid broader reports of some demand destruction problems coming in from various parts of the globe. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos on Tuesday said there's a "distinct possibility" planes may be grounded due to a jet fuel shortage, connected to the war on Iran and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Several countries have already told our airlines they cannot fuel their aircraft, so they have to carry fuel there and back," he told Bloomberg News in an interview.

via Anadolu Agency

He additionally warned that long-haul flights could become "a much more serious problem" due to the fuel crisis and restrictions. He was specifically asked whether planes might inevitably be grounded, to which he responded: "We’re hoping not, but it’s a distinct possibility."

Now in its fourth week, the US-Israel-Iran war had already disrupted commercial flights across the Gulf and Mideast region, especially impacting key regional hubs of Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Tel Aviv - due to the ongoing missile and drone danger in the skies. Another significant development reported by Bloomberg Tuesday:

Vietnam Airlines will temporarily suspend flights on some domestic routes as jet fuel shortages and rising fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East start to impact the nation’s air travel.

The national flag carrier will cut around 23 flights per week from April 1 over tightened supplies of jet fuel, according to a statement from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam. VietJet Aviation JSC is also reducing flights on some routes, according to schedules on its booking website.

But as far as oil and fuel flows disruptions, Asia in particular has been the first region to feel the supply crunch most acutely. Below is a round-up of some of the latest examples:

Flight surcharges: Some Asian countries, including Vietnam, say airlines are planning to role out fuel surcharges ​on ​international routes ⁠from early April.

Diesel shortages in Thailand: The abbot of Wat Saman Rattanaram in Chachoengsao province, about 50 miles east of Bangkok, warned that cremation services may have to be suspended. “In more than 50 years, I’ve never seen anything like this,” he said.

More drastic power-saving measures... Last week, the Thai government ordered civil servants to take the stairs rather than the lift, and it’s increased the air-conditioning temperature to 27C. It will tell government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts rather than suits.

Bangladesh electricity rationing:  Lectures at the country’s main universities have been cancelled until later this month as the government closed the campuses to save electricity.

India panic-buying gas supplies: India has been dealing with a squeeze in cooking gas supplies over the past few days, leading to panic-buying by domestic users.

Scrambling for cheap local alternatives: There are reports that suggest some regions in India are witnessing a spike in timber sales, while others see increased sales of cow dung cakes - both biomass fuels.

...and there are widespread images and examples of huge lines at gas pumps across various countries.

Major cities in India, particularly #Hyderabad is currently experiencing a severe Compressed Natural Gas #CNG shortage, forcing thousands of auto-rickshaws and cabs off the roads or into long, hours-long refueling queues pic.twitter.com/h0xMYHXDNr

— S.M. Bilal (@Bilaljourno) March 24, 2026

We also detailed earlier that hundreds of service stations across Australia have run out of fuel. 

Energy Minister Chris Bowen warned federal parliament on Monday that more than 109 gas stations in Victoria had run out of at least one grade of gas. He said 47 outlets in Queensland had no diesel, 32 had no regular unleaded, and 37 stations in New South Wales had completely run out of fuel.

The below data from Goldman Sachs charts an array of examples over the past couple weeks:

"The flow of oil to Asian refineries has slowed, and that has downward impacts on us," Bowen said, adding, "We're in an uncertain environment, so that's why we're doing all the preparatory work." 

Bowen warned that fuel supplies were at about 38 days for gasoline. He said only 30 days of diesel and jet fuel remained. There's the potential that the crisis could be coming to fuel pumps near you.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 18:30