From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week's Gains

The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we're right back up to 6.31%. [30 year fixed 6.31%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• All day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for 15.4 million SAAR in November, up from 15.3 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Is A Bear Market A Good Thing?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from “The Godfather.”

““These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”

In today’s markets, mentioning the “B-word” will get you thrown into the “permabear” camp, and everyone immediately assumes you mean the end of the world: death, disaster, and destruction. Unfortunately, even the Federal Reserve and the Government also believe bear markets “are bad.” As such, they have gone to great lengths to avoid bear markets and recessions through massive interventions and zero-interest-rate policies.

Yes, bear markets are indeed destructive, as they reverse the “wealth effect.” People lose their jobs as economic demand declines, weak companies go out of business, and consumer sentiment declines. However, sometimes destruction is a “healthy” thing, and there are many examples we can look to, such as “wildfires.” Like a bear market, wildfires are a natural part of the environmental cycle. They are nature’s way of clearing out the dead litter on forest floors, allowing essential nutrients to return to the soil. As the soil enriches, it enables a new, healthy beginning for plants and animals. Fires also play a vital role in the reproduction of some plants.

However, just as the Federal Reserve has tried to stop bear markets, California has had similar negative results from trying to prevent wildfires, as noted by MIT:

“Decades of rushing to stamp out flames that naturally clear out small trees and undergrowth have had disastrous unintended consequences. This approach means that when fires do occur, there’s often far more fuel to burn, and it acts as a ladder, allowing the flames to climb into the crowns and takedown otherwise resistant mature trees.

Yes, bear markets have terrible short-term impacts, but they also allow the system to reset for healthier growth in the future.

As we discussed in “Full Market Cycles,” markets thrive on cycles of expansion and contraction.

“Throughout history, bull market cycles are only one-half of the ‘full market’ cycle. This is because during every ‘bull market’ cycle the markets and economy build up excesses that are then ‘reverted’ during the following ‘bear market.’ 

In other words, just as wildfires restore the balance to the forest, a bear market reverses the buildup of excesses from the previous bull market phase. When valuations accelerate unchecked, speculative excess proliferates. As shown in the chart below, when valuations rise unchecked, the market grossly exceeds its long-term exponential growth trend, eventually leading to a reversion.

In the late 1990s, for example, the valuations of technology companies bore little relation to their actual profits, and leverage accumulated in non-bank financial sectors. Without a meaningful contraction, the excesses cumulated and amplified. A proper bear market forces participants to re‑evaluate assumptions, rein in leverage, and ultimately restore alignment between price and fundamentals. It is no coincidence that the most significant financial calamities have followed periods of weak or absent corrections. The Dot‑com Crash (2000‑2002) and the Global Financial Crisis (2007‑2009) both came after long expansion phases with little meaningful reset. The crisis that followed those periods was far more damaging than the corrections themselves.

However, that is why a bear market can be beneficial.

Reducing the Risk of Major Crises

As investors, we should welcome normal bear market corrections (of 20% or more) as they help maintain the health of the market system. Research by Goldman Sachs identifies three kinds of bear markets: event‐driven, cyclical, and structural. Each serves essentially as a purge of excess in different ways. In other words, bear markets are not “accidents” to be feared exclusively, but mechanisms by which markets self‐correct.

More importantly, the Federal Reserve and the Government should NOT intervene during these corrective processes, as bear markets act as a “clearing mechanism” of weak underpinnings. Bear markets ferret out weak companies, capital misallocations, and unsustainable business models. However, when the Federal Reserve or the Government intervenes to “bail out” that weakness, it fosters an environment that leads to a more substantial crisis in the future. As legendary investor Warren Buffett said, “The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.” That patient capital works best when the speculative froth is stripped away.

In short, bear markets serve as a form of market hygiene. They remove the buildup of risk, correct structural mispricings, and pave the way for healthier expansions. In this way, they reduce the chances of a runaway boom and subsequent catastrophic bust. As noted above, the problem with letting expansions run unchecked is that risk accumulates, leverage becomes excessive, valuations become detached from earnings, and investor psychology becomes euphoric. We can see this now, given the amount of leverage and speculation currently in the market.

Euphoria is dangerous. As Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, observed:

“Corrections are healthy. They’re normal. What’s not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets.”

Without a meaningful correction, the system grows brittle. Research shows that structural bear markets, the most severe type, tend to follow bull phases characterized by broad-based excess, speculative bubbles, and large-scale private-sector leverage.

A good example was the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. House prices soared, complex derivatives proliferated, and many investors believed that “this time is different”. When the unwind began, the fall was severe, with markets plummeting by over 50% in the U.S. However, had the Federal Reserve taken some action to reduce more speculative lending by hiking reserve requirements or rates, such action would have likely caused a more moderate bear market earlier, which may have deflated the excess, avoided a systemic collapse, or at least reduced the scope of the damage.

By welcoming bear markets (or at least accepting their inevitability), markets allow weaker players to exit, capital to be reallocated, and valuations to reset before the next leg up. In effect, a bear market lowers the “tail‑risk” of a catastrophic event by forcing more minor corrections instead of one massive collapse. Scholars have found evidence of asymmetric causality: bear markets can cause recessions, but recessions do not always cause bear markets.

In practice, this means that the wiser investor should view a bear market not just as a risk, but as a protector of the system over the long term. It reduces the buildup of fragility. It deflates bubbles in a more controlled manner and mitigates the risk of a major meltdown. While such a process would lower equity market returns, the net effect is fewer large‐scale economic dislocations, even if the short term is painful.

Why Investors Should Welcome Bear Markets as an Opportunity

Although bear markets feel uncomfortable, they offer fertile ground for long‐term returns if you’re prepared. Data supports this: bear markets are a normal phase, and historically, investors who remain invested and buy quality assets at discounted prices have achieved outsized returns over time.

“Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.” – Warren Buffett

That sums it up. In a deep market correction, quality companies often trade at irrational discounts. The unsophisticated sell in panic; the prepared buy selectively.

Moreover, bear markets deepen your discipline. Many younger investors and even many professionals today lack experience of a complete bear cycle. Shallow corrections have dominated the past decade, depriving markets of real stress testing. Without that testing, many young investors today fundamentally underestimate the risk they carry by chasing fads and misallocating capital. A bear market teaches humility, demands capital preservation, forces a reappraisal of business models and valuation, and separates the durable from the ephemeral.

In effect, bear markets give you two gifts if you play them well:

1. The chance to own high‑quality assets at lower valuations, and

2. The ability to compound from a lower base into more substantial returns over time.

With markets overvalued, speculation elevated, and forward outlooks likely overly optimistic, investors should consider taking some actions today to navigate the current bull market environment.

• Conduct a portfolio fundamentals review now. Ensure that the companies you hold have durable profitability, competitive moats, and manageable debt.

• Maintain or build a liquidity buffer. You should have dry powder, cash, or equivalents, ready to deploy when valuations become compelling.

• Define your “target” valuations or business attributes ahead of time. Know what you’re willing to pay for quality companies when market fear arrives.

• Resist chasing speculative themes when valuations are elevated. Validate earnings, balance sheets, and business models.

• Set allocation controls. For example, determine in advance the percentage of your equity exposure you are willing to add in a downturn.

• Stay invested rather than sell in panic. Exiting during a dramatic decline often locks in losses and misses the early recovery.

• Be emotionally prepared. Bear markets test your nerve, not your cleverness. Discipline beats market timing.

• Keep your horizon long‑term. Bear markets are chapters in multi‑decade investment journeys. The compounding value arises from staying engaged through the cycle.

• Use a watch list of high‑quality names you’d like to own if they drop significantly. Prep the list now so you move from reactive to proactive when the opportunity arises.

• Monitor macro signals and valuations, but don’t let them paralyze action. The market will not wait for perfect clarity.

By executing the checklist, you position yourself to benefit from a bear market rather than be overwhelmed by it. In the end, market downturns are part of the process of long‑term wealth creation, but you must remain disciplined.

Bear markets are a necessary mechanism for healthy financial markets. They reduce the risk of systemic excess and crises. They enable the wise investor to acquire high-quality assets at attractive valuations and participate more fully in the next growth cycle.

But you must prepare today to take advantage of and welcome the eventual and inevitable “bear market,” which is an opportunity, not a curse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 14:40

NATO Mulls 'Preemptive Strike' Against Russia's Hybrid Warfare, Claims 'More Aggression' Needed

At a moment Washington under President Trump is busy issuing rare calls for restraint, de-escalation, and to enact a peace deal in Ukraine, a top NATO commander says the conflict needs more aggression by the Western military alliance directly against Russia.

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, has told Financial Times as part of a fresh report that NATO is currently mulling more proactive measures in response to Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare. The report cites an alleged rise in Russian-backed cyberattacks, sabotage operations and airspace violations over Europe - which NATO could mirror and more, as any potential "pre-emptive strike" on Russian targets would be justified.

Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, via ANSA English

"We are studying everything… On cyber, we are kind of reactive," Dragone said. "Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something that we are thinking about."

That's when he explained his view that a "pre-emptive strike" could under certain circumstances and context be classified as a defensive action. "It is further away from our normal way of thinking and behavior," he conceded.

"Being more aggressive compared with the [aggressiveness] of our counterpart could be an option" - but he said that the questions that remain are: "legal framework, jurisdictional framework, who is going to do this?"

Multiple diplomats and officials from Eastern European and Baltic states are calling for this more proactive stance, or a less merely 'reactive' approach, to make Moscow feel real pain.

"If all we do is continue being reactive, we just invite Russia to keep trying, keep hurting us," one Baltic diplomat was quoted in the FT as complaining.

"Hybrid warfare is asymmetric – it costs them little, and us a lot. We need to be more inventive," the diplomat said.

And yet, there already have been years of covert sabotage operations in place, aimed at Russia and overseen by the West. These efforts, some which long ago were exposed in mainstream publications, are a large reason of why there's been constant escalation of the Ukraine war. 

This has in turn resulted in escalation of nuclear rhetoric and threats between Russia and the West. But the temperature needs to be drastically turned down, but these latest comments by the chair of NATO's Military Committee will only do the opposite.

Young men are continuing to pay the price on the battlefield, even as a peace process slowly and painfully plays out. Reuters has belatedly admitted and documented the immense losses suffered by Ukraine's military:

Pavlo Broshkov had high hopes when he joined the Ukrainian army in March as a fresh-faced recruit eager to defend his country and earn a bumper bonus to buy a home for his wife and baby daughter.

Three months later, the 20-year-old lay broken and prone on the battlefield, his dreams in tatters.

Broshkov is among hundreds of 18 to 24-year-olds who have volunteered to fight on the front lines this year, lured by generous pay and perks in a national youth recruitment drive designed to breathe fresh life into Ukraine's aged and exhausted armed forces of about one million.

Meanwhile, EU nations are finding any way possible to keep up the conflict instead of finding true compromise...

Macron:

In the weeks to come, the pressure on the Russian economy and the capacity of Russia to finance the war effort will drastically change. pic.twitter.com/JOmzDvdKxY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 1, 2025

The Kremlin has hit back against the aforementioned remarks of Adm. Dragone, with Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova calling Dragone's remarks "an extremely irresponsible step, indicating the readiness of the alliance to continue to move toward escalation."

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 14:20

Trump Says Pause On Asylum Decisions Will Be In Place For 'A Long Time'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on Nov. 30 that the freeze on asylum decisions, which was imposed following the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, will likely be in place indefinitely.

Asylum seekers listen to UNHCR workers at the entrance of Mexico's Refugee Help Commission and UNHCR offices in Tijuana, Baja California state, Mexico on Jan. 24, 2025. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

His comments came after U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow announced that the agency has halted all asylum decisions until it can ensure that “every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.”

When asked about how long the administration intends to pause asylum decisions, Trump said the measure has “no time limit” and could extend for “a long time.”

“We don’t want those people. We have enough problems,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump said he was referring to “people from different countries that are not friendly to us,” and from “countries that are out of control themselves,” pointing to Somalia as one example.

When asked if there is a list of countries whose nationals would face asylum restrictions in the United States, Trump referred to the 19 nations labeled by his administration as “countries of identified concern.”

“I don’t think they are all third world, but in many cases they are third world. They are not good countries. They are very crime-ridden countries,” he added. “And we frankly, don’t need their people coming into our country telling us what to do.”

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced the pause after it stopped processing all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals pending further review of security and vetting protocols.

For an immigrant to be eligible for asylum, the applicant must “have a fear of persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or their inclusion in a particular social group,” according to the Refugee Council USA.

The move came in the wake of the Nov. 26 shooting of two National Guard members, one killed and the other critically injured, near the White House, which authorities say was carried out by an Afghan national who entered the United States in September 2021 through Operation Allies Welcome, the Biden-era resettlement program launched after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Trump has denounced the shooting as an “act of hatred” and vowed to “permanently pause migration from all Third World countries” to allow for the U.S. system’s full recovery.

He said Nov. 27 that his administration would suspend all federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens, denaturalize immigrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any foreigners deemed to be “a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western civilization.”

“These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal autopen approval process,” Trump stated on Truth Social. “Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.”

Jacki Thrapp contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 14:00

UK Girl Barred From School Over Imprisoned Mother's 'Racist' Tweet

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Lucy Connolly, the mother jailed for 31 months over a single anti-mass immigration tweet int 2024, has revealed that her 13-year-old daughter Edie has been blocked from starting at a new school after the headteacher discovered her mother’s identity and conviction, citing that “racism doesn’t go down well” in their institution.

The devastating rejection, detailed in a GB News interview, sees Connolly, now free after over a year in prison, blast the decision as “outrageous discrimination” against her innocent child for her own political views.

If true, the development represents yet another another grim chapter in Britain’s speech gulag, where 10,000 were arrested last year for social media posts under vague hate speech laws.

NEW: Lucy Connolly reveals her 13-year-old daughter had her new school place rescinded when a headteacher realised Lucy was her mother.

She said: “They said racism doesn’t go down well at the school and my daughter being there would cause a ruckus.” pic.twitter.com/9mziPgltjt

— Ben Leo (@benleo444) December 1, 2025

Connolly told GB News “They said, ‘we’re going to be honest with you, the headteacher found out about who you were and put a block on the move and racism doesn’t go down well in their school’.”

The family had secured a six-week trial placement for Edie, desperate for stability after months of upheaval, but the discovery of Connolly’s August 2024 sentence for her tweet in the wake of the murder of three young girls in Southport by a second generation Rwandan migrant, led to an abrupt cancellation.

She claims that the headteacher of the school in question told the family the placement would be “too difficult” given the conviction.

“A headteacher at another local school deemed it fit to discriminate against my child because of my political views,” Connolly claimed.

Connolly fumed, “It’s outrageous. My daughter is being punished for my views. She’s innocent, and now she’s the one suffering,” adding “In what world is this ok?”

Connolly’s nightmare began in early August last year, when she was sentenced to 31 months for her tweet, which read “Mass deportation now, set fire to all the f***ing hotels full of the bastards for all I care.”

Judge Melbourne Inman KC called it “grossly offensive,” imposing the maximum under the Public Order Act for “stirring up racial hatred”—despite no direct threats and Connolly’s lack of priors as a childminder.

The punishment was clearly disproportionately severe and set a dangerous precedent, with the likes of former Prime Minister Liz Truss warning it would only fuel “radicalisation.”

Connolly’s fate can be contrasted with freed agitators like Labour councillor Ricky Jones, who incited a call to “cut their throats” against critics of mass migration, yet ultimately ended up with nothing more than a slap on the wrist.

Jones faced no custody while Connolly rotted, her appeal dismissed despite widespread outrage.

Edie Connolly’s school block is another instant of the human cost of Britain’s “speech gulag,” where 10,000 were arrested last year for “offensive” online content under the Communications Act and Online Safety Act.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 13:20

Vaccine Stocks Drop After FDA Memo Links COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Vaccine stocks slumped Monday after an explosive memo from FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad surfaced late Friday, signaling the agency is preparing to roll out tough restrictions on new vaccines for children. Prasad described a "profound revelation" linking Covid shots to at least ten deaths in children. 

By late morning, Vaccine makers dropped on the memo: Moderna -6%, BioNTech -4.3%, Novavax -4%, Vaxcyte -6.6%.

"This is a profound revelation," Prasad wrote in the memo. "For the first time, the US FDA will acknowledge that COVID-19 vaccines have killed American children."

He added, "It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved. This requires humility and introspection."

Wall Street analysts weighed in on the memo, and all agreed it introduces a new regulatory overhang for vaccine stocks.

Here's what the research desks told clients:

William Blair, Myles R. Minter (rates the MRNA market perform)

• "Our interpretation of the memo is that CBER will focus its efforts on the younger 12- to 24-year-old male population for newly approved Covid-19 vaccines where the myocarditis risk is highest"

• If new regulatory restrictions were to be implemented in the higher myocarditis risk population, analysts see further headwinds toward Moderna's declining Covid-19 franchise "alongside further negative sentiment that this memo and subsequent actions may generate"

• Analyst says Pfizer, BioNTech, Novavax and Sanofi could also be impacted

• "The memo also indicates several upcoming reforms to the CBER vaccine regulatory pathway, most notably the "demand" for pre- market randomized trials assessing clinical endpoints, not just immunogenicity, for most new vaccine products"

Mizuho, Salim Syed (rates PCVX outperform)

• Says the memo notes "pneumonia vaccine makers will have to show their products reduce pneumonia (at least in the post- market setting), and not merely generate antibody titers"

• However, "what investors are missing here is this is already in-line with the current standard" and poses no material change to Vaxcyte

Cantor, Carter Gould (rates PCVX overweight)

• Says not surprised to see selloff in PCVX shares "on the back of the return of perceived regulatory risk after a period of relative calm, particularly with key data weighted to late 2026"

• However, analyst  says there wasn't much in the actual memo language on pneumococcal vaccines (PCVs) that's concerning

• Reminds investors that "this all needs to continue to be viewed in the context of the likely timelines for VAX-31 adult and infants efforts against the backdrop of the time remaining in the current administration's term"

• "We appreciate that there's plenty within the memo that's controversial or worrisome regarding Covid-19 vaccine policy, but the actual language on PCVs shows little evolution vs. prior guidance"

Leerink Partners, Mani Foroohar (rates MRNA underperform)

• Says the memo's inflammatory tone highlights how agency policy/communications continue to contribute to vaccine skepticism and US vaccination rate decline

• "We view this as a continued negative for mRNA vaccine manufacturers in our coverage– especially as it relates to Moderna's recently updated short-to-mid-term revenue guidance"

The memo comes months after the Trump administration signaled it would link Covid shots to children's deaths. Remember, anyone who questioned the vaccines in the early days of the pandemic was demonized by Democrats and "trust the science" regime, which unleashed big-tech and state-sponsored censorship cartel against anyone asking questions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:45

Retail Workers Currently Earning 51.6% Less Than Needed To Afford Rent: Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An American retail worker earns 51.6 percent less than the amount required to afford a typical rental apartment, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a statement released on Nov. 26.

A rent sign seen in Maryland on Nov. 12, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The typical retail worker in America earns $34,436 per year,” the company said.

“A renter would need to earn $71,172 to afford the typical apartment, which costs $1,779 per month.”

This signifies a shortfall of $36,736 needed to afford an apartment, even though overall affordability has improved slightly in recent years.

In Cleveland, a typical retail worker earns 32.9 percent less than needed to afford a residence, the smallest shortfall among 40 metropolitan areas analyzed by the brokerage. This was followed by St. Louis, San Antonio, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. These places have some of the lowest rents in the country.

In contrast, the shortfall was highest in New York, where a retail worker earned 71 percent less. This was followed by Boston, San Jose, Miami, and San Diego. These locations rank among the most expensive rental locations.

Besides the rent struggle, the U.S. retail sector is also seeing large layoffs.

Retailers have announced 88,664 job cuts through October this year, a 145 percent jump compared to the same period last year, according to a Nov. 6 report by outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Incomes and Rent Growth

“As the cost of living has increased, so have the sacrifices renters must make to afford a place to live,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said.

However, “the good news is rents are no longer rising as fast as they were during the pandemic, so rental affordability has actually improved slightly in recent years,” Fairweather added.

The average rent in a primary city residence grew by almost 3.4 percent between September 2024 and 2025, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

A Nov. 19 report from real estate marketplace Zillow noted that U.S. incomes grew faster than asking rents this year amid a general slowdown in rent growth.

“Affordability is improving most significantly in markets where rents have fallen from year-ago levels, including Austin (where the typical asking rent is down 3.1 percent annually), Denver (-2.1 percent), San Antonio (-0.8 percent), and Phoenix (-0.7 percent),” the report said.

“Though incomes have understandably outpaced rents in markets where rent growth has turned negative, affordability improvements have even reached metros where rent growth remains strong.”

A monthly rental budget of $2,000 will net different types of properties based on the region, according to a Nov. 10 report from online rental marketplace Apartments.

“Renters in smaller cities like Memphis, Buffalo, and Indianapolis can afford three-bedroom apartments within a $2,000 budget, while in big cities like Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle, that same budget often only covers a studio,” it said.

Meanwhile, there have been proposals to freeze the amount that can be charged on rental properties.

Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist who won the New York City mayoral race this month, proposed a rent freeze during his campaign. Washington state, Oregon, and California have already implemented statewide rent control.

Supporters of rent-freeze policies argue that such measures are required to ease the burden on American families. However, critics warn that pursuing these policies could deter investment in the rental market, further exacerbating the issue in the long run.

A survey of The Epoch Times readers conducted on Oct. 29 found that most opposed rent-freeze measures and advocated pursuing market solutions.

Nearly 40 percent suggested that builders cut costs to reduce the housing shortage, which could then bring down rents.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:20

 

 

I’ve never shared this story before, but since we are at a milestone, I might as well…

February 2000: I was working as a strategist for a brokerage firm. My buddy Anthony had an international clientele, all deeply invested in US tech companies. His biggest client was flying in from the Middle East for a combination New York City shopping trip/portfolio review.

His biggest position? Cisco (CSCO). Millions of shares worth 10s of millions of dollars…

I did not cover the company (I was not an analyst). But I had views on the networking and telecom sector; I believed everything in the “George Gilder Telecosm” was a disaster waiting to happen. Gilder’s (expensive) newsletter correctly identified budding technology trends, but also possessed awful timing. When his telecoms portfolio plummeted by about 90%, he had the nerve to actually say, “I don’t do price.” 1

But I digress.

Prepping for the meeting, I reached out to Paul Sagawa of Alliance Bernstein. In the 1990s, Sagawa was the axe on Cisco; for nearly two decades, he correctly identified the upside for the networking firm. But by 1999, Sagawa changed his tune. Cisco had become a giant market leader but was increasingly moving towards vendor financing. In the late 1980s, less than 5% of Cisco’s clients used the company’s own financing arm; a decade later, it was 90+%. “Buy our valuable cutting-edge technology, we only need your flimsy, VC-backed start-up to sign a promise to pay for it (eventually).”

Sagawa correctly saw this as a budding disaster.

The market isn’t kind to stock bulls when they reverse course and turn bearish.2 Throughout 1999, he went from a stock analyst superstar to a persona non grata. His fall from grace was vindicated twelve months later, but before the deluge, he was somewhat of an outcast.

My firm was not even a Bernstein client; I took a chance and called the number listed on his most recent CSCO research. To my surprise, he not only answered the call but also took the time to explain the situation to me for an hour.  Sagawa provided the hard data and details for me to discuss the downside of Cisco with Anthony’s client, loaded with all the ammunition needed.

At the meeting, I started with the broadest overview: The stock was up ~3,700% since its IPO. The Sheik sat impassively as he took it all in. I drilled down into the details, the vendor financing, the changing technology landscape. I didn’t feel like I was making any headway, and didn’t want to badger him. The last thing I said was “You’ve made immense returns in this name, and we are years into this bull market; my best guess is there’s more downside risk than upside potential in the high-flying names – and Cisco is the poster child.”

I’m not a good salesman; I gave it my best shot, but didn’t expect much. I said my thanks and left.

I was surprised a few months later when Anthony came into my office with a little thank-you gift for the effort. “The sheik sold half, he is thrilled with us.” At the time, Cisco had already fallen 35% on its way to dropping ~90%.

I had written about the Fortune Cisco cover repeatedly – in 2000, then again years later. It’s now a cautionary chapter in How Not to Invest.

 

Here we are, 25 years later, and CSCO has perked up. Quantum computing, AI, and Cybersecurity have the stock rallying 28.9% this year. It has not quite reached $80.06, the dotcom peak in March 2000, but it is finally above the level where that infamous cover story (“No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco”) came out.

The key lesson is that media coverage – of any stock, asset class, or investment – should never be a substitute for your own thinking.

 

 

Source:
There’s Something About Cisco
By Andy Serwer, Irene Gashurov, Angela Key
FORTUNE Magazine, May 15, 2000

 

Previously:
2000: “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (May 15, 2023)

Can Anyone Catch Nokia? (October 26, 2022)

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021)

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016)

How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021)

Predictions and Forecasts

 

 

__________

1. “Most of the companies listed have lost at least 90 percent of their value over the past two years, if they’re even in business anymore.” –Wired

2. I experienced this firsthand with EMC…

 

~~~

I discuss the trouble with the CSCO cover in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

Its on sale at Amazon Cyber Monday Deal: $18.01

 

 

 

The post The Return of Cisco appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hassett Odds Soar As Trump Confirms He's Made Decision On Next Fed Chair

President Donald Trump said on Nov. 30 that he has already decided on his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding that an announcement is forthcoming, but declining to identify his nominee.

“I know who I am going to pick, yeah,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on his way back from Florida to Washington on Sunday.

When asked whether he would nominate National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the current frontrunner to replace Powell according to betting markets, Trump smiled and replied, “I’m not going to tell you, we’ll be announcing it.”

Hassett now has an 75% chance of getting the nomination according to prediction market Polymarket. Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh is at 12% with Fed Gov. Christopher Waller down to 8%.

Source: Polymarket

Earlier Sunday, Hassett, on CBS' "Face The Nation," said the market's reaction to reports that Trump was close to a pick is a positive sign.

“Once it became clear that the president’s getting closer to make a decision, the markets really celebrated, interest rates went down, we had one of our best Treasury auctions ever,” Hassett said on Fox.

“I think that the market expects that there’s going to be a new person at the Fed, and they expect that President Trump’s going to pick a new one. And if he picks me, I'd be happy to serve.”

Hassett, who has strongly defended Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and interest rates, said he would be happy to serve as Fed chief if Trump nominated him.

“I’m really honored to be amongst a group of really great candidates,” Hassett told CBS.

“I think that the American people could expect President Trump to pick somebody who’s going to help them, you know, have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rates.”

We do note that rates are higher this morning after Trump's comments (and the yield curve is steeper - policy error), but there are a lot of moving parts after the long weekend (from mixed manufacturing data to a hawkish BoJ) impacting markets.

Market-implied odds have soared to fully price in a rate-cut in December...

Finally, we note that Hassett's financial disclosure reveals at least a seven‑figure Coinbase stake and compensation for serving on the exchange’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, placing him unusually close to the crypto industry for a potential Fed chair.​

Still, crypto has been burned before by reading too much into “crypto‑literate” resumes. Gary Gensler arrived at the Securities and Exchange Commission with MIT blockchain courses under his belt, but went on to preside over a wave of high‑profile enforcement actions, some of which critics branded as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”

A Hassett-led Fed might be more open to experimentation and less reflexively hostile to bank‑crypto activity. Still, the institution’s mandate on financial stability means markets should not assume a one‑way bet on deregulation.​

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 12:00

ZeroHedge Store - Cyber Monday Is Here (Last Chance!)

*  *  * It's now Cyber Monday. Prices go back up at midnight!

After launching ZeroHedge store a year ago, we've been humbled by the overwhelming response. Between die-hard fans of IQ Biologix supplements, ZeroHedge gear, Rancher-Direct clean meats, hand-made knives, and more - your support is greatly appreciated. 

So since everyone else on the planet is doing a Black Friday / Cyber Monday promotion, we did one too. Until Monday at midnight: 

IQ Biologix supplements are 50% off - if you've been on the fence, go for it. If you're a regular, time to stock up. 

Multitools are also 50% off - the perfect stocking stuffers. 

ZeroHedge hats and other gear is 40% off.

Anza Knives (including limited run) and ReadyWise products are 30% off

And finally, water filters are 25% off. 

We don't sell cheap Temu junk you don't need. Our goal is the opposite: to offer you supplies and gear that sharpen your mind, strengthen your body, protect you, and offer ZH gear that makes it clear to those who know that you're not part of the herd. You're not pumped with vaccines, fake meat, SSRIs, and a stream of propaganda that's driving the left into daily epic meltdowns.

What readers have been buying this weekend: 

ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

IQ Astaxanthin - Ultimate Antioxidant

IQ Colostrum

Limited Edition ZH Waxed Canvas Hat

IQ Resveratrol

IQ Peak Focus

IQ Brain Rescue

IQ Male Enhancement

Free shipping on orders over $500!

Thank you for your support 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:55

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.4% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.9% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $447,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 3.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 9 consecutive months.

It has now been 40 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

Strategy Sets Up $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve, Lifts Bitcoin Stash To 650,000BTC

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, is creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt.

Strategy on Monday announced the establishment of a US dollar reserve funded through proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program.

“Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its dividends, and Strategy intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time, with the goal of ultimately covering 24 months or more of its dividends,” the company said.

Alongside the launch of the reserve, Strategy disclosed an additional purchase of 130 Bitcoin for $11.7 million, bringing its total holdings to a symbolic value of 650,000 BTC, acquired for $48.38 billion.

$MSTR announces the formation of a $1.44 billion USD Reserve and an increase in its BTC Reserve to 650,000 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/e1tAhDUo9G

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 1, 2025

Notably, while MSTR has been in decline, the last few days have seen the preferreds bid...

The Strategy preferred now yields from 9% to nearly 13%, considerably above the 6% rate on preferred stock from major banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.

Primary means for funding dividends

According to the Strategy’s company update on Monday, its US dollar reserve will be the primary source of funding dividends paid to holders of its preferred stocks, debt and common equity.

The update details that the $1.44 billion reserve is 2.2% of Strategy’s enterprise value, 2.8% of equity value and 2.4% of Bitcoin value.

Strategy’s funding of the USD Reserve. Source: Strategy

“We believe this improves the quality and attractiveness of our preferreds, debt and common equity,” Strategy said, adding that it raised $1.44 billion in less than nine trading days by selling its common A stock MSTR.

What if we start adding green dots? pic.twitter.com/a19bD33KzD

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 30, 2025

USD reserve to complement BTC holdings

“Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution,” Strategy founder Saylor said, adding that the new financial tool will better position the company to navigate short-term market volatility.

Strategy CEO and president Phong Le highlighted that the company’s latest BTC purchase — made in the past two weeks — brings its total holdings to 650,000 BTC, or about 3.1% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist.

An excerpt from Strategy’s Form 8-K. Source: SEC

“In recognition of the important role we play in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, and to further reinforce our commitment to our credit investors and shareholders, we have established a USD Reserve that currently covers 21 months of dividends,” Le noted.

Strategy lowers 2025 KPI targets

Alongside its reserve and 650,000 BTC holdings, Strategy has significantly lowered its KPI targets and corresponding assumptions for 2025 results.

According to the update, Strategy now expects its BTC yield to end the year between 22% and 26%, with a projected BTC price estimate of $85,000–$110,000 by Dec. 31.

Revised assumptions and corresponding results for 2025. Source: Strategy

The company has also significantly reduced its targeted BTC gains, cutting its previous expectation of $20 billion to a revised range of between $8.4 billion and $12.8 billion.

The revised target for operating income is between $7 billion and $9.5 billion, down from the originally projected $34 billion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:40

Sky's The Limit

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Major US indices closed high on Friday evening as trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P500 was up 0.54%, the Dow up 0.61% and the NASDAQ up 0.65%, but US equity futures are pointed lower this morning and Asian equity markets are showing mixed performance. Bond yields are mostly higher. Yields on US 10s rose 2.1bps to 4.03% while yields on 2-year JGBs reached their highest level in 17 years after BOJ Governor Ueda hinted that he is seriously considering a rate hike this month.

Brent crude is up 1.20% in early trade following news that Ukrainian drones had struck two Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ tankers bound for the Novorossiysk oil terminal in the Black Sea. The terminal itself was later struck by Ukrainian drones, prompting a halt in operations, while Moldova reported incursions of Russian drones into its own airspace in an apparent continuation of Russia’s ‘grey-zone’ tactics that has seen Russian drones violate the airspace of Poland, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states in recent months.

NATO allies have stationed fighter jets in Poland under Operation Eastern Sentry that can be scrambled to shoot down Russian drones, but this is a high cost response to the very cheap probing of NATO’s defences that is being conducted by the Kremlin. This as the Wall Street Journal reports that ‘Russia Gains the Upper Hand in Drone Battle, Once Ukraine’s Forte’ and quotes a Ukrainian drone unit commander who says that Russia is receiving superior supply chain support from China than Ukraine is receiving from the United States and Europe combined.

Ukrainian officials met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Florida to progress talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian delegation was missing erstwhile Zelenskyy Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, who has resigned his position following anti-corruption raids on his home relating to investigations over illegal kickbacks in Ukraine’s energy sector. Rubio told journalists after the meeting that progress had been made but that there was still more work to be done.

Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow today to meet with President Putin to progress a deal. Yermak’s departure may have placed Zelenskyy further on the back foot in the bargaining process as his image is tarnished by whiffs of corruption at the heart of his government. President Trump speculated as much aboard Air Force One, where he told journalists that he thought there was a “good chance” of a deal to end the war being signed, but that the Ukrainian corruption scandal was “not helpful”.

While negotiations over the fate of Ukraine continue, another risk event for energy markets continues to unfold in Venezuela. President Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to declare “THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.” This comes following the largest US deployment of military assets to the region in decades and series of missile strikes on small boats thought to be engaged in drug smuggling.

The purpose of US pressure on Venezuela has very likely now expanded from enforcement action against drug trafficking to efforts toward regime change (see here for RaboResearch’s further thoughts). Donald Trump told journalists aboard Air Force Once that he had been in contact with Venezuelan President Maduro over the phone, but didn’t disclose details of the conversation. He had previously indicated that the US would soon begin land strikes in Venezuela. “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way that’s fine. If we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:25

France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan

As we reported earlier, the important Miami meeting wherein American and Ukrainian delegations hammered out a revised ceasefire draft for some five hours on Sunday did not have European participation. But this is where the real deal-making is taking place. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow, where he's expected to meet with President Putin on Tuesday, in order to present where things stand on the peace plan.

The Miami meeting reportedly focused on where the new de facto border would be in the east, after the 19-point plan featured significant territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea. As for Europe, is still touting a "coalition of the willing" which are vowing ongoing military support to the Zelensky government.

At this moment, France and the United Kingdom especially are continuing to push for the deployment of troops from NATO-member states to Ukraine as part of their version of peace settlement, despite this being very obviously unacceptable to Moscow. 

Image source: British prime minister's office, 10 Downing St

Last week Politico reported that when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined a discussion involving the coalition of the willing via phone call, he made clear to all that the White House wants a peace agreement in place before committing to any long-term security guarantees for Kiev.

But UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer tried to push back, arguing that a "multinational force" would be essential for ensuring Ukraine’s future security.

Bloomberg then followed with a report saying that UK officials have already selected the military units they plan to deploy, based on several reconnaissance trips to Ukraine.

France's President Emmanuel Macron proposed that such troops could operate in the capital area or western regions of the country, far from the front lines. But this would flagrantly cross all Russia's red lines. NATO troops on its doorstep was key Putin's decision-making in launching the 'special military operation' in the first place.

It must be recalled that the original US-drafted 28-point peace plan, which leaked to the press and more recently was condensed down to 19 points, included an explicit prohibition on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine.

The European-proposed counter-plan, which was also quickly leaked to the media, greatly softened that stance and laid out that instead of a blanket ban, NATO would not "permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime."

At a moment Trump's peace plan advances, and with Witkoff on his way to meet with President Putin, hawks in Europe are growing even more hawkish:

⚡️BREAKING: NATO may carry out a preemptive strike against Russia

For the first time, the alliance is discussing the possibility of a preemptive strike on Russia in response to its hybrid attacks. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the head of NATO’s Military Committee, told… pic.twitter.com/57RgfyNZpn

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 1, 2025

Such intentionally vague language leaves open the possibility of NATO troop rotations into Ukraine. The Kremlin has time and again said it would not tolerate this, and such a move would lead to direct war with the West.

Europe's plan also seeks to leave open a Ukrainian path to NATO, but this is also a sticking point which the US plan leaves out, given it would of course be dead on arrival if presented to Putin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:05

Multiple Failures In Vetting Process Of Afghans, Says Tom Homan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There has been a massive failure in the vetting process that allowed Afghan nationals to enter the United States under the Biden administration, border czar Tom Homan said in a Nov. 30 interview with Fox News.

When the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the Biden administration initiated the Operation Allies Welcome program to resettle thousands of Afghan nationals in America, which included those who worked alongside U.S. authorities in Afghanistan over the previous two decades.

“It’s the biggest national security failure in the history of the nation,“ Homan said, noting that the DHS Inspector General came out with a report at the time stating multiple failures in the vetting process.

“People need to understand, in these third-world nations, they don’t have systems like we do. So, a lot of these Afghans, who did get here to get better, they had no identification at all. Not a single travel document, not one piece of identification. And we’re going to count on the people that run Afghanistan, the Taliban, to provide us any information who the bad guys were or who the good guys are? Certainly not.”

On Nov. 26, a gunman shot two West Virginia National Guard members. One of the victims has since died, while the second remains in critical condition. The suspected shooter was identified as 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal from Afghanistan, who entered the country as part of Operation Allies Welcome. In 2022, the operation was renamed Enduring Welcome.

More than 190,000 Afghan nationals were resettled in the United States as part of the effort, according to the State Department.

A 2022 report from the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) Office of Inspector General, mentioned by Homan in the interview, said that the Biden-era DHS failed to fully vet some of the 80,000 Afghans allowed entry into the United States at the time.

An audit of 88,977 evacuee records inspected by authorities found that more than 11,000 recorded their birth date as Jan. 1. In addition, 7,800 had missing or invalid travel document numbers, the report said.

More than 36,000 records listed “facilitation document” as the travel document type, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) was unable to define what the “facilitation document” was, according to the DHS.

The Epoch Times reached out to the DHS Office of Inspector General for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari was confirmed by the Senate to his post in 2019 during the first Trump administration.

Following the attack on the two National Guard members, the State Department announced on Nov. 28 that it had “IMMEDIATELY paused visa issuance for individuals traveling on Afghan passports.”

On the same day, Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow said in an X post that the agency had halted all asylum decisions “until we can ensure that every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.”

President Donald Trump said the asylum restriction applies to 19 nations, which he had labeled as “countries of identified concern” via a presidential action in June. The list includes Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, and Turkmenistan.

In the interview, Homan said approximately 10.5 million illegal immigrants had crossed into the United States under the previous administration.

This figure does not include the hundreds of thousands who came via the CHNV program and the more than 2 million known gotaways, he said.

CHNV was a Biden-era parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans, while gotaways refers to illegal immigrants who evaded U.S. border patrol and law enforcement authorities after crossing the border.

Since the Afghans were allowed entry via government programs, there are at least photographs and fingerprints of some of these individuals, Homan said, adding that the government has no details on the millions of gotaways.

The current administration’s policies have ensured “the most secure border in the history of this nation,” Homan said.

“Now we know who’s coming, now we clear who’s coming. We don’t have 10,000, up to 12,000 people a day, entering this country illegally,” he added.

In a Nov. 13 statement, the CBP said the Trump administration delivered the sixth straight month of zero releases at the border in October. There were 7,899 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border, approximately 95 percent lower than the monthly average of the prior administration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:45

The post Jeffries’ Strong Floor and No Ceiling: We Need to Fix the Roof appeared first on CEPR.

UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US

Last year during sweeping British protests triggered by the stabbing murders of three young girls at a dance recital by the radicalized 17-year-old child of Rwandan migrants, London Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatened to have American citizens "arrested and extradited" to the UK for "stoking racial violence" (i.e. pointing out that third world migrants and often the children of third world migrants are a societal net negative and should be deported). 

The event sparked a series of thousands of arrests of UK citizens for crimes as meager as posting memes online and hoisting British flags in the presence of immigrants.  In the past year at least 12,000 such arrests have been made in the name of "quelling hate speech", an ill defined violation based on arbitrary guidelines and left up the whims of leftist bureaucrats. 

No US citizens have been extradited, likely because the action would start 1776 Part II and a handful of armed Americans delivered on a Carnival Cruise Liner would end up conquering the UK in a week or less.

However, it would seem that the British authorities have decided to take out their frustrations on their own citizens who dare to visit the US to enjoy some of the freedoms they don't have at home.  

A British IT consultant was arrested by West Yorkshire Police after posting pictures on LinkedIn of himself holding guns during an American vacation.  Jon Richelieu-Booth, 50, shared the photograph taken at a Florida homestead on August 13.  The post sparked a 13-week ordeal, which began with a police warning at his residence.  Officers cautioned him about online content and its "potential impact on others' feelings".

Despite Mr Richelieu-Booth’s offer to demonstrate the photograph's American origin, authorities chose to arrest him on August 24.  All charges were ultimately thrown out, but police continued to harass Booth until October, when they arrested him yet again for "bail violations".  

Whilst the original firearms and stalking charges were dismissed, prosecutors pursued a public order offense regarding a separate social media post.  Mr Richelieu-Booth was scheduled to face Bradford magistrates on November 25th for allegedly displaying material intended to cause distress, but this charge was also eventually withdrawn.  He originally faced a potential prison sentence of six months if convicted.

Elon Musk, who has been highly critical of the UK's censorship policies, reposted a summary of the story to his 229 million followers on X, writing:

“And this is why we have the first and second amendments in America...The first amendment in the US protects freedom of speech, while the second amendment relates to the right to bear arms..."

Though the incident has ended with Booth avoiding jail time, there is a cottage industry of Europeans traveling to the US to experience life away from progressive authoritarianism.  This includes shooting firearms for recreation.  Often these adventures are documented on YouTube and other platforms, and might be considered an embarrassment for some officials overseas.  

Booth's arrest could be an attempt to chill the waters on British travelers who make life in America look "too good". 

Some firearms are technically "legal" in the UK, but the application process is arduous and subject to arbitrary police examination, which is why only 0.25% of the population has successfully acquired a firearms certificate.  The behavior of UK police is reminiscent of a communist regime; no crime has been committed, but the government wants to dissuade from certain behaviors anyway. 

A conviction isn't necessarily the goal.  Instead, the process is the punishment.  The ongoing struggle session for one man sends a warning to the rest of the populace.  The goal is to frighten the public into walking on eggshells.  It's much easier to control a population that censors itself.  The message is clear:  No matter where you travel in the world, the government at home owns you.  

*  *  * CYBER MONDAY IS HERE - LAST DAY!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:30

'Inside NYT's Hoax Factory': Trump's AI/Crypto Czar Dismisses Hit-Piece As 'Nothing Burger'

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks has fired back at The New York Times over a report detailing how his government advisory role could benefit his investments and those of his close associates.

Sacks said in a post to X that despite having “debunked in detail” the Times’ reporting over the past five months, the outlet continued to publish the article on Sunday about his supposed conflicts of interest.

“Today they evidently just threw up their hands and published this nothing burger,” Sacks wrote. “Anyone who reads the story carefully can see that they strung together a bunch of anecdotes that don’t support the headline.”

Sacks is a co-founder and partner at the venture firm Craft Ventures, and his special government employee role at the White House has drawn scrutiny in the past, with Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren saying in May that he is “financially invested in the crypto industry, positioning him to potentially profit from the crypto policy changes he makes at the White House.”

Source: David Sacks

Before he became crypto czar, Sacks and Craft divested over $200 million in crypto and crypto-tied stocks, at least $85 million of which Sacks owned, but Sacks retained an interest in several illiquid investments of “private equity of digital asset-related companies.”

Sacks retains 20 crypto investments, The Times reports

The Times reported that its analysis of Sacks’ financial disclosure found he has retained 708 tech investments, 449 of which are AI-related and 20 are tied to crypto, all of which could benefit from the policies Sacks supports.

In one example of a perceived conflict in Sacks’ role, the outlet stated that Craft Ventures is invested in the crypto infrastructure company BitGo, which offers a stablecoin-as-a-service.

BitGo filed to go public in September, with regulatory filings showing Craft owned 7.8% of the company.

The Times noted that Sacks was a major backer of the stablecoin-regulating GENIUS Act, which was signed into law earlier this year. Many crypto commentators predicted that this would boost the use and adoption of the tokens by institutions.

Other examples noted by the Times involved Sacks’ and Craft’s ties to companies involved with AI, which have skyrocketed in value as the White House and Wall Street bet on the technology’s potential.

The Times noted that Sacks’ ethics waivers, shared in March, stated he would sell his interests in AI and crypto; however, they don’t disclose when he sold the assets and do not detail the value of his remaining investments.

NYT created “bogus narrative,” says Sacks

In his X post, Sacks shared a letter to the Times sent by his lawyers at Clare Locke accusing the outlet of setting out “to write a hit piece” and giving their reporters “clear marching orders” to find conflicts of interest.

Sacks added it was “very clear how NYT willfully mischaracterized or ignored the facts to support their bogus narrative.”

Sacks’ spokesperson Jessica Hoffman told the Times that he has complied with rules for special government employees, and the Office of Government Ethics said that Sacks should sell his investments in certain types of companies but not others.

Sacks’ role as a special government employee is limited to 130 days, and in September, Democratic lawmakers questioned whether he had exceeded the number of days allowed with his appointment.

However, Sacks reportedly carefully manages the days he spends as a special government employee to ensure that he stays under the limit.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:15

'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November

This morning's survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in 'soft' data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data...

But the picture remains mixed:

• S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).

• ISM's Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.

Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, "the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth."

Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening...

For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.

“Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.

In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products. 

"This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories."

ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump's feet in Washington:

• “New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)

• “We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

• “Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)

• “No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

• “Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

• “The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

• “Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

• “The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

• “Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

• “Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)

However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.

"Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:08

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October. The employment index was at 44.0%, down from 46.9% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.4%, down from 49.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.2% November 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the reading of 58 percent reported in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the 47.9 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 44 percent, down 2 percentage points from October’s figure of 46 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.