My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• AI Isn’t Coming for Everyone’s Job: The Atlantic on the limits of artificial intelligence — the things AI does brilliantly and the vast terrain of human work it can’t touch. The rise and fall of the player piano indicates a robust demand for human labor that machines cannot replace. (The Atlantic)

• How Homeowners Are Turning to Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, in Charts: The prospect of short-term savings is pushing more buyers to adjustable-rate mortgages. (Wall Street Journal) see also How elevator rules are throwing a wrench into America’s housing market: The unintended consequences of a 1988 law are making housing less accessible and driving up prices. Disability-access elevator requirements are adding enormous cost to mid-rise construction, making affordable housing harder to build. (Washington Post)

• What the Push for Alts in Retail Channels Means for Institutional Investors: Limited partners have questions about their managers’ quest for new sources of capital. (Chief Investment Officer)

• The return-to-the-office trend backfires: Across practitioner reports and peer-reviewed research, organizations that commit to highly flexible models, including remote-first, report strong output, healthier engagement, and faster growth than mandate-driven peers. (The Hill)

• Why ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did: The classic automation parable gets a second act — and the real job killer wasn’t the machine you’d expect. There’s a lot more to replacing labor than just automating tasks. (David Oks) see also Silicon Valley’s New Obsession: Watching Bots Do Their Grunt Work:  Tech workers are mesmerized by watching AI agents click through spreadsheets and fill out forms on their behalf; they compare notes on how long their fleet of virtual interns can labor away without making a mistake (Wall Street Journal)

• Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration: The technology giant’s siding with Anthropic in its fight against the Pentagon stands out in an era when big companies have tended to keep quiet. As the tech giant pushes back on Pentagon demands, Anthropic is caught in the middle. (DealBook)

• How a Die-Hard Libertarian Is Negotiating Lower Health-Care Costs:  An Oklahoma anesthesiologist has spent decades posting transparent prices at his surgery center. Others are now following his lead. (Businessweek)

• The right way to be a scientific contrarian: Being a skeptic is important. Being a crank is not. Here’s how to tell the difference. Not everyone accepts the scientific consensus; some even make careers out of challenging it. But only a select few do it the right way. (Big Think)

• YouTube Just Ate TV. It’s Only Getting Started. YouTube has surpassed traditional television in viewership across sports, late night, and comedy — and the gap is widening fast.(Hollywood Reporter)

• What Brad Pitt in ‘F1’ and Michael B. Jordan in ‘Sinners’ Can Teach Men About Style: This year’s Oscar-nominated movies are a menswear feast. Stylists and costume designers offer five takeaways. Hollywood’s latest leading men are offering a masterclass in how to dress like a grown-up. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

We assume human cognitive labor is scarce and predictably compensated. AI, however, undoes this scarcity.

Source: Paul Kedrosky

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Volkswagen Plans 50,000 Job Cuts Due To Plunging Profits; Board Members Grab €1.75MM Each In Bonuses

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

German automaker Volkswagen plans to cut around 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 as profits slump and the company struggles with rising costs, tariffs, and declining margins.

The job cuts were announced alongside the company’s 2025 financial results, which showed net profit falling 44 percent to €6.9 billion — the lowest level since the fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s board has come under fire after securing additional bonus payments tied to the 2025 financial year.

According to reporting by Tichys Einblick, board members are set to receive bonuses of up to €1.75 million each after the company unexpectedly reported around €6 billion in net automotive cash flow for 2025, a figure that the news outlet claims was achieved by adopting “creative accounting practices.”

It pushed Volkswagen above the €5.6 billion threshold in its executive compensation scheme, activating the highest bonus tier for board members.

The cash-flow result was partly achieved through a factoring operation in which Volkswagen sold outstanding receivables from its operating business to generate immediate liquidity, according to the report.

In the same financial year, workers were forced to forgo bonuses of up to €5,000 due to the company’s weak performance.

In a letter to shareholders on Tuesday, CEO Oliver Blume confirmed the planned workforce reduction, saying the figure applies across the entire Volkswagen Group in Germany. The company had already announced plans to cut around 35,000 jobs at the core Volkswagen brand by the end of the decade.

The company said the drop in net profit was driven by billions of euros in charges linked to its sports car subsidiary Porsche AG, the impact of U.S. import tariffs, and the costs of restructuring across the group.

Revenue remained largely stable at just under €322 billion, down 0.8 percent compared with the previous year, while global vehicle deliveries slipped slightly to just under 9 million units.

Sales rose 5 percent in Europe and 10 percent in South America, but declined 12 percent in North America and 6 percent in China, where the Asian country’s domestic market continues to thrive.

Profitability was particularly affected by a sharp collapse in earnings at Porsche, where operating profit fell to just €90 million from more than €5 billion a year earlier.

CFO Arno Antlitz warned that the current level of profitability is not sustainable. “2025 was shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and intense competitive pressure, but the operating margin of 4.6 percent adjusted for restructuring is not sufficient in the long run,” his statement from the company’s press release read.

Volkswagen said its transition toward electric vehicles is also weighing on margins. Fully electric models now account for 22 percent of the company’s order backlog, and electric vehicle sales rose 55 percent last year, but high development and production costs continue to reduce profitability.

Looking ahead to 2026, the group warned that “challenges are expected in particular from the macroeconomic environment, uncertainties regarding restrictions in international trade and geopolitical tensions.”

It also cited “increasing competitive intensity, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, as well as high requirements resulting from emissions-related regulations.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 02:00

Indian H1B Scammers Found Guilty In Multi-Million Dollar Fraud In Pennsylvania

A federal jury in Philadelphia has delivered a resounding guilty verdict against two Pennsylvania brothers and a longtime associate, convicting them of masterminding one of the most elaborate and prolonged racketeering operations uncovered in recent years. The scheme, which prosecutors say drained more than $32 million from Pennsylvania's Medicaid program while exploiting vulnerable foreign workers through the H-1B visa system, spanned over a decade and involved layers of deception across multiple states.

At the center of the criminal enterprise - self-dubbed the “Savani Group” - were brothers Bhaskar Savani, 60, a trained dentist from Ambler, Pennsylvania, and Arun Savani, 58, from Blue Bell, Pennsylvania. Bhaskar controlled the group's extensive network of dental practices, while Arun oversaw finances and real estate holdings. Together, they built what U.S. Attorney David Metcalf described as a “complex web” of sham entities and fraudulent operations, amassing tens of millions through outright fraud “at every turn.”

A third defendant, Aleksandra “Ola” Radomiak, 48, of Lansdale, Pennsylvania—a longtime associate—was also convicted for her role, primarily in the healthcare fraud components.

The multi-faceted conspiracy encompassed several interlocking schemes:

• Visa fraud and worker exploitation: The group filed numerous false H-1B visa petitions with the U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. These applications misrepresented job titles, duties, and other details to bring in foreign workers—most from India—who were dependent on the Savani Group for their legal status. Once employed, many were coerced into kicking back portions of their salaries and paying additional fees back to the enterprise, creating a captive, underpaid workforce.

• Healthcare fraud against Medicaid: After the Savani Group's legitimate dental practices lost their Medicaid contracts due to prior issues, the conspirators pivoted to using nominee-owned shell entities and sham dental practices. They fraudulently billed Pennsylvania Medicaid in the names of non-treating dentists for services that were either unnecessary, never performed, or grossly inflated. This alone resulted in over $32 million in improper payments, robbing taxpayers and depriving the healthcare system of vital resources.

• Money laundering and tax evasion: Proceeds from the fraud were funneled through a sophisticated network of financial transactions, including concealment and transactional money laundering. The group also conspired to defraud the U.S. Treasury via wire fraud tied to false tax returns.

• Obstruction of justice: When federal investigators closed in, the conspirators actively obstructed a grand jury probe.

The convictions, handed down on March 9, 2026, after a lengthy trial, covered a sweeping array of charges under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act and related statutes. Both brothers were found guilty of: Conspiracy to conduct a racketeering enterprise, Conspiracy to commit visa fraud and visa fraud, Conspiracy to obstruct justice, Conspiracy to commit healthcare fraud and multiple counts of healthcare fraud, Money laundering conspiracy, concealment money laundering, and transactional money laundering, Conspiracy to defraud the U.S. Treasury, Wire fraud.

Bhaskar Savani faced additional conviction for conspiracy to distribute an adulterated and misbranded medical device in interstate commerce.

After emigrating from India, Bhaskar Savani, known as “Dr. B,” earned his dental degree from Temple University in 1995 and quickly set about building his practice into an empire.

Aside from his dental practices, he became an evangelist for the importation of Indian mangoes, persuading the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2007 to lift a 18-year ban, and expanded into real estate, becoming one of the financial backers of a proposed indoor velodrome in Valley Forge in 2006.

Meanwhile, he brought on brothers Arun, to oversee financial affairs for the businesses, and Niranjan, a fellow dentist, to help him expand his core dental businesses into an empire. -Philadelphia Inquirer

U.S. Attorney Metcalf emphasized the collaborative effort behind the case: “This sprawling investigation and prosecution meant untangling a complex web of fraudulent billing practices and sham medical entities. Our office worked with numerous state and federal partner agencies to unravel and prove the multiple healthcare fraud schemes at the heart of this operation. It’s gratifying to dismantle this crooked enterprise and hold those responsible to account. Fraud and abuse cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars each year and rob the healthcare system of vital resources.”

The brothers now face severe penalties: Bhaskar Savani up to 420 years in federal prison, and Arun Savani up to 415 years. Sentencing is scheduled for July 2026.

This case underscores the high stakes involved in combating sophisticated fraud rings that target public programs and exploit immigration pathways. The Savani Group's downfall highlights the determination of federal authorities to pursue even deeply entrenched operations, no matter how layered or long-running.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 23:05

FDA Unveils New Platform For Tracking Side Effects

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration on March 11 made public a new, consolidated platform for tracking side effects experienced by people following receipt of vaccines and drugs.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Officials are folding a number of existing platforms into the Adverse Event Monitoring System, which they are describing as a unified system that will be easier to search on.

“The FDA’s previous adverse event reporting systems were outdated and fragmented and made important data difficult to access. These clunky systems also wasted millions of taxpayer dollars and created blind spots in our postmarket surveillance of products ranging from drugs and vaccines to cosmetics,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, said in a statement.

“We’re fixing the problem through a major modernization initiative. Starting today, the FDA will have a single, intuitive adverse event platform that will better serve agency scientists, researchers, and the public.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has previously criticized health agencies’ reporting of adverse events following vaccination and has said that fixes were coming.

The new FDA system is already providing data previously accessible in separate places, including the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. Other systems, such as the Center for Tobacco Products Adverse Event Reporting System, are slated to be added in May.

The FDA receives more than two million reports of adverse events and medication errors each year. Regulators use those reports to monitor the safety of approved products, including vaccines.

Utilizing seven databases for the reports was expensive and made for a poor user experience, FDA officials said. They pegged the cost of running those databases at $37 million a year.

The new system is estimated to save the agency about $120 million over the next five years.

The Adverse Event Monitoring System can be accessed here.

Users of the new system are told that the reports provide valuable information but may contain inaccurate information, and cannot provide the prevalence of events or conclusively link products with problems. Consumers also should not stop or change medications without consulting a health care professional, the FDA says in the new system’s disclaimer.

The platform is designed to provide better data through changes such as standardized reporting protocols. Artificial intelligence is being used for some of the data digitization and other work.

“Consolidating the FDA’s adverse event systems and converting to real-time publication was challenging, but made possible by a highly aggressive schedule,” Jeremy Walsh, the FDA’s chief artificial intelligence officer, said in a statement. “The team executed with perfection and delivered the biggest technical transformation in agency history. This is the new FDA.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:40

Iran's Hormuz Naval Mines: A Powerful Asymmetric Weapon Paralyzing Tanker Traffic

Iran's asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from kamikaze drone strikes on tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships to littering the world's most important maritime chokepoint with naval mines.

Even though much of Iran's conventional naval capability has  been severely degraded in the 12 or so days of the Operation Epic Fury campaign, IRGC forces retain asymmetric leverage in Hormuz and the Gulf region through sea mines, drones, small vessels, and missile threats.

"It's a good tool of asymmetric warfare," Jahangir E. Arasli, a senior research fellow at Baku-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy who specializes in maritime threats, told the Wall Street Journal.

"The conventional capability is wiped out, but they have this asymmetrical capability," Arasli said, noting that he was speaking in a personal capacity.

BREAKING:

Iran is planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, turning the vital waterway into a battlefield with daily clashes.

The U.S. Navy is rejecting requests from oil and shipping companies for escorts through the Strait of Hormuz due to the high risk of Iranian attacks,… pic.twitter.com/XPN6zhQk6B

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 11, 2026

The U.S. military said earlier this week that it had severely degraded IRGC naval forces, prompting Iran to shift away from sea denial operations in the maritime chokepoint and toward creating havoc in the waterway by laying naval mines.

Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan public policy research arm of the U.S. Congress, released a 2020 report titled "Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies" that assessed Iran has roughly 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines, with some more recent estimates putting the stockpile toward the upper end of that range.

On Thursday, President Trump told reporters that U.S. forces have struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels. This move to disrupt naval mine operations comes as such activity would be a nightmare for commercial ship traffic in the narrow waterway.

Tehran deployed naval mines during its conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, during the so-called "tanker war," forcing the U.S. to escort tankers and other commercial ships.

"Mines are the weapon of the poor," a former senior officer with the French navy and specialist on the subject told AFP News on condition of anonymity.

Earlier, CNN reported that Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a new message that said the Hormuz chokepoint will remain closed as a "tool of pressure."

Naval mines in the waterway, along with the growing number of ships awaiting safe passage, suggest that U.S. and allied naval escorts may soon be required if Washington wants to unclog the chokepoint. Even so, Tehran appears to retain enough asymmetric capability to keep tensions high for weeks to come.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:15

Will Johnny Ever Learn To Read? Pushback Against Science Of Reading Mandates

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

Half a century after the book “Why Johnny Can’t Read” sounded an alarm about the rise of illiteracy in the U.S., it has only gotten worse: A quarter of all young adults, many of them high school graduates, are now functionally illiterate. Unable to read more than basic, short sentences, their prospects in today’s information economy are bleak. 

This crisis gave rise to a movement that embraced the science of reading and produced a surprising success story in the Deep South, a region dogged by the highest rates of childhood illiteracy in the nation. State leaders and education reformers in Mississippi and Louisiana led a remarkable improvement in elementary reading scores that now rank among the highest in the nation. 

The turnaround was a long slog, requiring a heavy hand from the state to win buy-in for a wholesale transformation of curricula, teaching methods, accountability, and more. Former state education chief Carey Wright called it the “Mississippi Marathon.” One of the biggest questions in public education now is whether the southern surge can spread nationwide, turning millions of struggling students into proficient readers with a brighter future. 

But such a top-down approach is running into resistance, particularly in blue states like New York and Illinois, where strong teachers’ unions have fought to preserve local control over schools. And nowhere is the political battle over who runs the classroom more pronounced than in Massachusetts, which has long boasted the nation’s best public schools. 

Massachusetts’ governor is expected to sign a literacy bill in the coming months, making it one of about a dozen states to mandate adoption of curricula based on the science of reading in elementary grades. Laws in another 30 states merely encourage its use. Although these laws suggest a big step forward for the nation, Massachusetts illustrates the challenges ahead in some states – many of the educators responsible for implementing the mandated reforms see them as an affront to local control of classrooms.

The influential Massachusetts Teachers Association (MTA) led the campaign against the legislation, suffering a rare defeat at the statehouse. At least 300 superintendents, principals, and teachers in about 40 Massachusetts districts also signed a letter opposing the mandate, arguing that local educators know what’s best for students. 

The pushback in Massachusetts raises concerns among advocates about whether the reforms, especially the evidence-based curriculum and teacher training, will be fully implemented across the state. ExcelinEd, an advocacy group chaired by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, has identified many science of reading policies, big and small, that have helped states boost literacy rates. The group’s research found that the difference between states with the biggest reading gains and those that floundered boils down to how thoroughly they implemented most of the reforms.

“We know what works, and we have state exemplars like Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida that have actually done it,” said ExcelinEd Senior Policy Fellow Christy Hovanetz. “So unless more states are willing to do the hard work, we’re not going to see improved outcomes for our kids. And that severely impacts our economic prosperity and future. So yes, I’m concerned.”

State Versus Local Control

In the U.S., most school districts call the shots regarding the curriculum – the crucial teaching materials that determine how kids are taught. Although research shows that the quality of curricula makes a big difference in whether Johnny and Jill learn to read, this area of public education remains largely unregulated by most states, leaving 13,000 districts to pick instructional materials based on convenience, corporate marketing, or price if not quality. And nobody knows what curricula most districts use since only six states require such disclosure, according to Karen Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. 

Science of reading advocates say local control over curricula isn’t working. Consider fourth graders, about the age when a child’s reading skills strongly predict their future academic success or failure. In 2024, 40% of fourth graders across the nation scored below the Basic level, up from 34% in 2019 and nearly matching levels in 1992, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the gold standard in testing. These students have trouble reading aloud, recognizing and decoding many grade-level words, and thus comprehending the meaning of text. They will struggle in all their classes through high school if they aren’t reading well in elementary school. 

States like Massachusetts are responding with mandates that require districts to pick from a menu of approved curricula backed by research showing their effectiveness. The Massachusetts Teachers Association doesn’t dispute that there’s a literacy crisis. But the union opposed the mandate, casting it as a form of government overreach in complex curricular matters best left to trained educators. 

“Our members have opposed legislated curriculum mandates for literacy education because they know losing flexibility to do their jobs and restricting their professional judgement inevitably means some students will continue to struggle with learning to read and write,” MTA President Max Page and Vice President Deb McCarthy said in a statement to RealClearInvestigations. “The law in Massachusetts will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to implement, and that money would be better spent on hiring staff and increasing professional development opportunities for educators.”

The union says it supports the voluntary adoption of evidence-based curricula by districts, which has been spurred on by grants from programs like Literacy Launch. Advocates estimate that about half of the state’s districts are experimenting with or rolling out higher-quality curricula. The other half is still using less-effective instructional materials, including Lucy Calkin’s popular Units of Study, which is based on the principles of a teaching strategy called Balanced Literacy. 

Failed Reform Efforts

Balanced Literacy emerged during the “reading wars” of the 1990s in an attempt to address the nation’s literacy decline. At the time, the prominent approach to instruction, called Whole Language, required students to learn words and sentences by looking at simple picture books as they were read aloud, and if needed, guess at pronunciation and meaning by the story’s context and images. Experts hoped that this loosely structured method would inspire a love of reading. 

While it worked for some students, critics said the lack of any explicit instruction in methods to decode words left many students struggling. Balanced Literacy came about as a compromise, adding a dash of phonics to help these students sound out words while keeping the fundamentals of the Whole Language strategy. 

De’Shawn Washington, winner of the 2024 Teacher of the Year award in Massachusetts, saw the damage done to his elementary students from Balanced Literacy’s Units of Study. In his Boston and Lexington classrooms, students who were already proficient readers advanced at a fast clip. But most students, who were one or two grade levels behind because they didn’t have exposure to reading at home or suffered from a disability, learned at a much slower pace, if at all. A few of his third graders were unable to read books for kindergarteners or write their names. Washington did his best to supplement Units of Study with more phonics, but it wasn’t much help.

“The struggling readers tended to get left behind, and the disparity between them and the proficient readers widened,” said Washington, whose experience turned him into an advocate of Massachusetts’s mandate. 

Calkins, a professor at Columbia, has publicly acknowledged her curriculum’s shortcomings. Yet Units of Study remains entrenched in more than two dozen districts in Massachusetts, which are part of the “widespread” resistance to literacy reforms, including in Boston Public Schools, says Darci Burns, executive director of HILL for Literacy, which trains Massachusetts teachers in evidence-based literacy practices. 

Burns says many of the gatekeepers of instructional materials, such as assistant superintendents and directors of curriculum, were trained to use Balanced Literacy and remain wedded to it like a religion. Teachers like its unscripted approach, giving them more freedom. Burns predicts they will try to skirt the mandate rather than support it. 

“These districts might adopt a reading program that’s the most aligned with Balanced Literacy,” Burns told RCI. “And then they’ll go through the motions, but they won’t really do it.”

The Science of Reading

In 2000, a National Reading Panel of top experts was set up to distill what several hundred gold-standard studies revealed about literacy instruction. Although the panel didn’t explicitly reject Balance Literacy, it found that a more structured approach to instruction in five areas was the most effective: phonemic awareness (learning word sounds), phonics (matching sounds to letters), fluency (reading aloud), vocabulary (learning word meanings), and comprehension (gleaning the meaning of text). 

The science of reading movement was built on these five pillars, with Massachusetts and other states incorporating them into legislation. Although more recent research has brought new insights – leading scholar Louisa Moats says language skills need much more emphasis in the five pillars – they remain the best approach to improved literacy. 

Yet two decades after the panel’s findings, most universities still haven’t read the memo. Signaling the challenges of wholesale reform, only a quarter of teacher preparation programs cover all five pillars, denying most instructors the training they need to be effective. 

This leaves educators in an unusual position – unlike most professionals, they are not trained in, and sometimes reject, the best practices of their trade. It’s another knock on the relevancy of higher education that Massachusetts and other states are now addressing by requiring teacher preparation to include the five pillars. 

“Most teachers don’t know the science of reading – that the point of phonemic awareness is to facilitate word recognition with an alphabetic writing system, or that the primary comprehension enabler is vocabulary,” said Moats. “I don’t want my grandkids in a classroom where the teacher has the autonomy to do whatever the hell she wants because I have seen the results of that.”

The five pillars may be on solid footing, but the curricula based on them are a work in progress. Some are comprehensive, others are too narrowly focused on the foundational skills like phonics and don’t include enough book reading and writing; some don’t focus enough on building students’ knowledge about subjects like history and science, which is key to reading comprehension; some haven’t been around long enough to have a proven track record. 

States with new literacy laws are not all doing a good job of vetting curricula to ensure they give districts the strongest options, says Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. The varying quality of the curricula has given ammunition to critics of mandates, like Superintendent Julie Hackett, whose affluent Lexington district in Massachusetts uses Units of Study. “We’ve done some looking into results around districts that have adopted new curricula and we are not seeing the results that would necessarily justify” spending up to $1 million to buy new instructional materials, Hackett said at an MTA event.

Vaites wrote that Hackett’s concerns are overblown. Although Massachusetts’ current list isn’t perfect, it does offer comprehensive programs covering the five pillars with an emphasis on reading books and building knowledge.

“Most of the curricula on Massachusetts’s list is pretty good, and now with the mandate, most people think that state leaders are savvy enough to make it even better,” Vaites told RCI.

Arduous Training

Southern states found that a new curriculum isn’t worth much unless teachers are trained to master it. Washington, the former teacher, says adopting a new curriculum is a lot of work, and classes and coaching gives teachers more confidence about handling such a big transition, convincing them that the science of reading is not just another education fad. 

“The training shifts the conversation away from resistance because teachers realize they are not going into this new situation blind and that there’s a big investment being made to improve the profession,” Washington said. 

The bills in Massachusetts offer training to all teachers rather than requiring it, as 18 other states, including Louisiana, have done, according to ExcelinEd’s literacy policy tracker. If that’s a concession to opponents, so is the decision by Massachusetts lawmakers not to adopt another reform that has proven effective in Louisiana, Mississippi, and other states: retaining third graders who can’t read at or near grade level from promotion. It’s a highly controversial policy that parents almost always oppose despite the long-term literacy benefits, according to a study of Mississippi that found retention “led to substantially higher ELA scores in sixth grade.”

In all, ExcelinEd has identified 18 reforms, including dyslexia screening and parental notification of reading problems, that the most successful states have implemented. Given the heavy lift, it’s not surprising that some states have stumbled. 

Of the 15 states that adopted most of the 18 policies by 2019, 10 of them outpaced the national average in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores by 2024, with Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina far out in front, according to Hovanetz, the policy fellow. These 10 states illustrate the effectiveness of the reforms.

But test scores in four of the 15 states declined more than the nation’s did, and Michigan tied, showing the difficulty of implementing the reforms. Among the backsliding states, Hovanetz says, New Mexico didn’t train and deploy all of its reading coaches, and Oklahoma and North Carolina ended their third-grade retention policy. 

“States get a whole bunch of constituent calls saying, ‘It’s not fair you’re retaining my kid.’ Then they back off of the policy and lose any momentum that they had gained,” says Hovanetz, a former Florida education official. 

Minnesota illustrates how things can go wrong when districts are encouraged, rather than mandated, to adopt evidence-based curricula and teacher training. “Some teachers took the training, not everyone did, and when they went back to their schools, teachers didn’t have the instructional materials to support what they learned in training, and they might not have had a leader at the school to support them," Hovanetz said. “So Minnesota probably wasted a whole lot of money.”

A number of other states haven’t bothered to pass meaningful science-of-reading laws. They include both liberal states like Washington and Illinois and conservative states like Montana and Maine.

In Massachusetts, a conference committee is reconciling the two bills, with the rollout of reforms set for 2027. The Senate bill requires districts to regularly assess K-3 students’ reading abilities and create improvement plans for those who score significantly below grade level. It’s a measure of accountability that advocates hope will produce positive results in a state that’s moving backwards in literacy on the NAEP test. 

In another concession to opponents of the mandate, lawmakers gave districts a narrow escape hatch. They can apply for a waiver from the mandate if their alternative curriculum is backed by research evidence. While the waiver could open the door to the adoption of Calkin’s revised Units of Study, it will have to pass muster with the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education.

Mary Tamer, who convened the Mass Reads coalition of 40 education groups to support the legislation that she helped write, is bullish about the adoption of reforms. Despite the opposition, she says the political momentum, underscored by the unanimous votes for the literacy bills in both the House and Senate, is strong enough to compel most districts to buy in.

“Our expectation is that districts will move toward evidence-based instruction as quickly as they can because it’s proven to teach children how to read,” she said. “And that is our goal here.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:50

Eric Swalwell Rents Room Linked To Former Staffer To Claim California Residency

Rep. Eric Swalwell has primarily been living in Washington, D.C. for years, and now that he’s running for governor of California, he’s hit a snag over residency. 

According to reports, Swalwell is renting a single room in a home in the eastern Bay Area that’s occupied by a family of three to claim residency in the state. Public records show it’s a three-bedroom, 1,350-square-foot home owned by Nicolas and Kristina Mrzywka. It is unlikely that Swalwell has ever truly lived there. And now, one of his Democratic primary rivals is calling him out on it.

“The alleged discovery of Swalwell’s Livermore rental came from the congressman’s top Democratic opponent, billionaire Tom Steyer,” reports the New York Post. “Steyer says Swalwell appears to ‘live in California on paper only’ as the governor race heats up, ‘making him unlikely to meet the basic residency requirements to run for Governor.’”

Ryan Hughes, Steyer’s attorney, is now calling on Secretary of State Shirley Weber to “enforce a dormant residency requirement in the governor’s race.” Hughes also encouraged Weber to “allow for robust legal proceedings as to whether Swalwell is eligible to serve as Governor,” which could be problematic when dealing with the Trump administration.

“If elected, questions of legitimacy would hang over Swalwell, allowing the Trump Administration to sow doubt, exploit the ambiguity, and advance its perverse agendas,” Hughes wrote. “The Trump Administration could question Swalwell’s legitimacy as Governor and, therefore, imperil California’s receipt of federal funds, the state’s ability to deploy the California National Guard, and act in emergencies.”

Why is Swalwell renting that particular room? Kristina Mrzywka is the sister of Stephanie Sbranti, the wife of Tim Sbranti, Swalwell's ex-deputy chief of staff and district director from 2015 to 2018, whom Hughes described as Swalwell’s “longtime mentor who helped introduce him to politics.”

Deed searches turn up no trace of ownership for Swalwell in Livermore. Meanwhile, a 2022 deed of trust lists him as the buyer of a house in Washington, D.C., which he claimed as his primary residence.

In an interview, Sbranti said he suggested Swalwell rent a room in the Livermore home “as a way to maintain an affordable base in an expensive district, ” the Sacramento Bee reported.

In the letter, Hughes stated that at least since 2018 the Secretary of State’s office “has taken the legal position that the five-year residency requirement is unconstitutional under the U.S. Constitution.”

In response, a declaration was filed on March 6 by Swalwell’s attorneys from his landlord Mrzywka.

In it she states that “under penalty of perjury” that “I entered a lease agreement with Eric and Brittany Swalwell in June 2017 for a property that I own in Livermore, California. Mr. and Mrs. Swalwell has leased the property from me since June 2017.”

Democrat Members of Congress from California are also sticking up for Swalwell.

“Like all members of the California congressional delegation, we work and live both in this great state and in Washington, DC, representing our constituents in Congress,” their joint statement reads. “Tom Steyer's insinuation that there is something wrong with that undermines us all. Steyer is pushing a bogus residency conspiracy that originated in MAGA circles at Donald Trump's bidding.”

The statement continued, “Eric Swalwell has spent his entire career fighting for California families - both in his district, and in our nation's Capitol. We have endorsed our colleague so he can continue this important work of protecting Californians from Trump and making the Golden State more affordable.”

The statement was signed by Reps. Jimmy Gomez, Adam Gray, Zoe Lofgren, Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui, Raul Ruiz, Ted Lieu, Lou Correa, Nanette Barragán, Jimmy Panetta, and Kevin Mullin

Steyer's campaign isn’t buying it.

 "With so much at stake in this election and this administration making anti-democratic moves all across the country, we hope that the Congressman can resolve this issue to avoid Donald Trump or Republican extremists exploiting it down the line or creating confusion for voters later in the process." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:25

Paging Nostradamus: You Have A Margin Call

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse.

This just in: predicting is hard, especially about the future. One solution is ambiguity: couch predictions in poetic allusions that are open to interpretation.

What's hard is making an unambiguous prediction that turn out to be correct. Recency bias often trips us up, as making predictions based on projecting the recent past seems to work well until trends and dynamics change. But due to recency bias, we tend to ignore these signals and focus on whatever supports our belief that the future will be a continuation of the recent past.

If we live long enough to experience several epochal transitions, we start noticing longer-term patterns. One such pattern that attracts little attention is that recessions tend not to replicate the previous recession; they tend to follow the recession before.

So the recession we're now entering won't track the 2008-09 recession, it will likely track either The 1991 recession--shallow and brief--or the previous "real recessions" of 1980-83 or 1973-75.

The recession of 2008-09 was characterized by these dynamics:

1. The price of oil spiked, but fell rapidly back to its previous range.

2. Low inflation generated by the massive deflationary impact of China's expansion of low-cost manufacturing and credit expansion enabled the Federal Reserve to flood the financial system with trillions of dollars, pinning interest rates to zero (ZIRP--zero interest rate policy).

3. Low inflation enabled authorities to "run the economy hot" with cheap, abundant credit that inflated credit-asset bubbles in real estate, stocks and other assets, generating a "wealth effect" in the top 10% who own the majority of the assets.

4. The Fed's balance sheet and federal debt were both modest when measured by GDP, and so these could be expanded with little downside, as these acted as buffers.

The 1991 recession was trigged by a spike in oil prices and risk-off reaction to the first Gulf War (Desert Storm). Once oil prices fell, the impact on interest rates, asset valuations, unemployment, etc. were, by historical standards, mild.

The 1973-75 and 1980-83 recessions were different--stagflationary confluences of embedded inflation generated by price shocks and "running the economy hot." Over time, interest rates (bond yields) tend to track the cost of oil, as the entire economy rests on a foundation of energy.

Adjusted for inflation, oil leaped to a new level in the "oil shock" of 1973-74, triggering a reset of the economy already reeling from higher inflation, foreign competition and sagging productivity.

As the supergiant oil fields discovered in the 1960s started producing at scale in the 1980s, the inflation-adjusted price of oil fell, and remained at historically modest levels interrupted by occasional short-lived spikes (Desert Storm, invasion of Ukraine, etc.).

In the 1970s, energy plateaued at a higher cost level. This--along with other factors--contributed to embedding higher costs, i.e. inflation, that were exacerbated by "running the economy hot," i.e. assuming inflation would magically decline due to "growth."

Instead, inflation became self-reinforcing, threatening to cripple the economy. The only real solution was pushing interest rates high enough to suppress credit expansion, which in an economy dependent on ever-expanding credit, pushed the economy into a deep recession.

Assets fell, valuations stagnated, unemployment soared, credit tightened, and the "easy money" fixes of the past were no longer the solution, they were the problem.

Here we see the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, a proxy of interest rates:

Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), a proxy of the stock market, adjusted for inflation: by the time the Dow regained the magic 1,000 level in 1982, it had lost 2/3rds of its real (inflation-adjusted) value from its 1966 1,000 peak.

We have succumbed to the illusory belief that "the powers behind the curtain" can--and will--always save us from a market crash and "real recession." What history teaches us is this can only happen in a very specific set of conditions which no longer apply: if oil costs plateau at a higher level, inflation becomes self-reinforcing, credit expansion leads to extremes of risk and productivity remains stagnant, then those behind the curtain will only make the situation worse by lowering interest rates and "running it hot."

At that point, everyone predicting a continuation of the past 18 years will be reaping their reward for being wrong: a margin call in a bidless market. Predicting is hard, but it's good to keep an open mind and avoid recency bias. If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:00

Senate Republicans On Iran War Ending: Sooner The Better

The ongoing U.S. military operation against Iran, which began February 28th with strikes aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, navy, and other strategic assets, has prompted a range of reactions from Republican senators. While most GOP lawmakers initially supported President Trump's actions - evidenced by the Senate's largely party-line vote on March 4th to block a bipartisan war powers resolution that would have curtailed or required congressional approval for the conflict - several prominent voices have emphasized the need for a swift conclusion rather than a prolonged engagement.

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), a key Trump ally, became one of the most vocal advocates for an early exit during his appearance on Jesse Watters Primetime on Tuesday. Hawley urged the president to "declare victory" and withdraw U.S. forces, arguing that core objectives have already been met.

Watters: Do you think the President is going to look for an off-ramp or keep going?

Hawley: I think he [Trump] has achieved his objectives the way that he’s laid them out… What is there, really, that’s left to do that we haven’t already done?

…

We have totally destroyed, forever, their nuclear program. We have destroyed their ballistic missiles. We have destroyed their navy. This has been a total success… I think we ought to say to our heroes, ‘Thank you for a job well done.’ This has been absolutely amazing. It’s been amazing. It’s been historic. And now it’s time to declare victory.

Watch: 

Hawley on Iran: What is there really that's left to do that we haven't already done? It's time to declare victory. pic.twitter.com/fSM2yFvMZ0

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 11, 2026

This positioned Hawley as the first prominent Trump-aligned senator to publicly push for an end in this manner. Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), known for his non-interventionist stance, has been the other GOP senator openly critical or unsupportive - opposing the operation from the outset and was the lone Republican to vote in favor of the war powers resolution to limit it.

Hawley is joined by at least two other GOP senators in expressing preferences for a short, decisive campaign rather than an extended one. In comments to ZeroHedge on Wednesday:

• Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) stated, "Nobody wants that. The President doesn’t. I certainly don’t," emphasizing a shared desire to wrap up quickly. He expressed trust in Trump but highlighted concerns about a prolonged conflict's potential effects on the 2026 midterm elections.
• Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), often seen as more establishment-oriented and hawkish on issues like Ukraine aid, agreed on avoiding a "quagmire." When asked about favoring a short-term operation, she replied, "Oh yeah," adding that Trump's mentioned timeline of "four to five weeks... sounds like a good period of time."

These sentiments reflect a broader GOP preference for avoiding "forever wars," consistent with Trump's campaign rhetoric, even as broader Republican support remains strong for the strikes themselves. No widespread pushback or calls for indefinite continuation appear from other senators in available reporting, though some like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) have estimated the campaign lasting "a few weeks" with focused objectives like degrading missile capabilities.

Meanwhile, the conflict's economic ripple effects continue, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022. Analysts at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have warned that sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices to $150 per barrel, heightening pressure for a rapid resolution.

*BRENT CRUDE SETTLES ABOVE $100 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 2022

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2026

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 20:35

US Court Clears State Medicaid Ban On Transgender Surgeries For Adults

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

West Virginia’s ban on Medicaid coverage of surgical procedures for people with gender dysphoria is legal, a federal court ruled on March 10.

A sign in support of Medicaid rests in a walking device on the House steps of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on April 27, 2025. Bryan Dozier/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

A 2025 U.S. Supreme Court decision means the ban does not violate the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause or the Affordable Care Act, U.S. Circuit Judge Julius Richardson, writing for a unanimous panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit, said in a 35-page decision.

West Virginia’s Medicaid plan excludes a number of treatments and procedures, including “infertility services” and “sex changes.”

People who sued over the ban said they were being discriminated against, in part because of the Equal Protection Clause, which says that states must not deny people equal protection under the law.

“To prevail on the equal protection claim, Plaintiffs must first show that the challenged Exclusion discriminates because of sex or transgender status. But they fail to make this showing,” Richardson said.

That’s because the exclusion is based on medical diagnosis, he said.

“West Virginia’s plan does not single out people of a particular sex or transgender status. Rather, the State determines which diagnoses qualify based on the risks it is willing to cover,” the judge said. “Here, West Virginia chose to cover alterations of a person’s breasts or genitalia only if the person experiences physical injury, disease, or congenital absence of genitalia.”

Medicaid is a health insurance program for low-income people run by the U.S. and state governments. About half of U.S. states ban or limit Medicaid coverage for transgender procedures. A number of lawsuits have been filed over the restrictions.

The new decision cited a 2025 ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court that upheld a Tennessee law barring transgender procedures and drugs for minors.

A federal judge ruled against the West Virginia ban in 2022, and the full 4th Circuit struck down the law in 2024.

In 2025, Supreme Court justices told the appeals court to reconsider the prohibition in light of its ruling on the Tennessee statute.

West Virginia officials also offered legitimate reasons for the policy, including concerns about the medical necessity of transgender surgeries, the appeals court panel ruled.

“This is a big win for West Virginia taxpayers who pay the bill for Medicaid—a much needed and utilized program,“ West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey said in a statement. ”As good stewards of taxpayer dollars, the state should not be footing the bill for unproven, non-essential medical procedures.”

Lambda Legal, which is representing plaintiffs in the case, did not return a request for comment by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 20:10

Ben Affleck Once Criticized AI, Now Netflix Is Buying His AI Startup For $600 Million

Ben Affleck—who has previously warned about the risks artificial intelligence poses to Hollywood—has sold his own AI filmmaking startup to Netflix in a deal that could reach $600 million, according to Bloomberg.

The cash portion of the acquisition is smaller, with additional payments tied to performance targets, but it still ranks among the largest AI-focused deals by a major studio.

The startup, InterPositive, developed software designed to help directors edit footage after filming, such as removing stray objects or changing elements in the background. The tools are intended to work with existing film rather than generate entirely new content. Director David Fincher has already used the technology on an upcoming movie starring Brad Pitt.

Netflix’s purchase highlights how studios are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to streamline production and reduce costs. Rivals such as Amazon and The Walt Disney Company are also exploring AI tools for film and television development.

Bloomberg writes that Affleck built InterPositive with backing from RedBird Capital Partners and initially kept the project quiet before seeking investors in 2025. He has argued the technology should function as a controlled filmmaking aid: the system trains only on footage from a specific film and doesn’t scrape outside movies or generate new works independently.

For Netflix, which has historically favored building technology internally over large acquisitions, the purchase represents a rare buyout aimed at strengthening its in-house AI capabilities for movie and TV production.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 19:45

Adobe Plunges To 7 Year Low On CEO Resignation, Muted Forecast

Troubled SaaS icon Adobe tumbled after hours, sending its stock to 7 year lows after the company announced that CEO Shantanu Narayen will resign from the creative software giant amid deep skepticism about the company’s ability to survive and thrive in the AI era. Narayen had served as CEO of the company for 18 years, and will remain in the position until a successor has been appointed, Adobe said Thursday in a statement. He will stay on as board chairman.

The CEO change “adds questions around strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities, and pace of innovation,” Grace Harmon, an analyst at Emarketer, said in an email. “Investors will likely focus on whether incoming leadership maintains a balance between disciplined execution and aggressive AI investment, especially as competition in creative and enterprise AI intensifies.”

The company also gave a sales forecast for the current quarter that just topped estimates, but failed to ease investor fears that the software maker is being left behind by new competitors.

In the fiscal first quarter, revenue increased 12% to $6.4 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $6.28 billion. Adjusted earnings were $6.06 a share in the period, which ended Feb. 27. The average projection was $5.88 a share.

Annual recurring revenue for the company’s AI-first products such as Firefly more than tripled compared to the same period last year, Narayen said in a script prepared for a conference call scheduled after the results. In September, Adobe said sales from these products exceeded $250 million.

“We are focused on selecting the right leader for this next exciting chapter of the company’s growth and are grateful for Shantanu’s continued leadership as CEO to ensure a smooth transition,” said Frank Calderoni, the board’s lead independent director, who will oversee the search for Narayen’s successor.

For the quarter ending in May, the company expects revenue to be $6.43BN - $6.48BN, vs a conservative estimate of $6.43BN. Profit, excluding some items, will be $5.80 to $5.85 a share, compared with an average projection of $5.70. 

The maker of creative software such as Photoshop is among a group of application software makers, including Salesforce and Atlassian that are seen as struggling to win new customers in the face of much cheaper AI upstarts. Adobe has worked to weave artificial intelligence tools through its creative and marketing software, and offers its own range of AI models meant to generate imagery that doesn’t carry copyright risks in an effort to keep its massive market share. 

“Sentiment is constrained by long-term AI fears, current competitive pressures, revenue deceleration, and margin headwinds from AI investments,” wrote Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, in a note ahead of earnings.

The shares fell about 6% in extended trading after closing at $269.78 in New York. The stock has declined about 23% this year, and is about to drop the lowest level since 2019. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 17:02

Charts Show Middle East Shockwave Rippling Through Energy, Air Travel, And Freight Networks

The Middle East conflict has triggered what the International Energy Agency earlier described as the largest oil supply disruption in global oil market history, as Iran continues to strike energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Against that deteriorating backdrop, Goldman analysts laid out how the shock is rippling through the global economy, disrupting oil flows, air travel, and freight markets.

Analysts led by Patrick Creuset said oil and transport markets have taken the hardest hit from the near-freeze in crude tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has also spilled into air travel, with a sharp decline in flights across the Gulf, though the fallout has so far remained largely contained to the region. Air cargo between Asia and Europe, however, has been hit the hardest, given the large role Middle Eastern airlines play in global freight.

Impact summary:

Oil

Crude tanker transits across the Strait of Hormuz have largely stopped over the past week (9 March, Exhibit 1). Saudi Aramco commented with their earnings release (10 March) they would be ramping their East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea export terminal) to full capacity; our oil team assume 3mb/d of extra pipeline flows/capacity vs. 20-21mbd of pre conflict exports via Hormuz. Direct (cost) and indirect (potential demand destruction) effects of disruption to energy flows remain the main impacts to watch across our transport coverage. The price of very low sulfur marine fuel (VLSFO) for instance has roughly doubled vs. the Jan/Feb average Exhibit 5, while NWE jet fuel cracks hit record highs also roughly doubling jetfuel prices Exhibit 3. Europe holds commercial jetfuel stocks equivalent to a couple of weeks worth of consumption, on our estimates, with the majority of imports coming from refineries in the Gulf and India Exhibit 4.

Air travel

The main impact on air travel thus far has been a significant reduction in flights to and from the Gulf, with about half of the initial decline in volumes recovered in recent days Exhibit 6. This has translated into a low single digit impact at major European hubs in the days following the start of the conflict, which seems to have been at least partially recovered as of yesterday Exhibit 10. Overall we see a slight reduction in overall air travel volumes in Europe Exhibit 8 and US Exhibit 7, but no sign of a broader impact on travel sentiment so far. North Atlantic activity levels for example continue to look normal Exhibit 9. On fares, our trackers point to increases recently, with high single digit % sequential increases on the main routes across our covered airlines for Easter and May travel Exhibit 12; all else equal and assuming no hedging in place we estimate unit revenues would need to increase by mid to high teens % vs. 2025 levels to cover current jetfuel prices, with higher % increases required for the LCCs vs. flags.

Freight

Given the Middle East airlines account for a mid-teens % of global cargo volumes, air cargo capacity between Asia and Europe has been significantly reduced since the start of the conflict, in line with our first take last week. The initial impact on volumes flown is negative, given the roughly ~50% reduction in Middle East flights over the last week Exhibit 6; however with the end of the Chinese NY holidays last week underlying demand is likely to increase from a seasonal perspective, driving rates higher Exhibit 14. Manufactured and perishable goods trade is clearly most disrupted in the Gulf, with some albeit limited capacity to re-route container flows via terminals in the Gulf of Oman/ east of Hormuz, as well as multimodal solutions (overland, air). In container shipping, while there is some regional disruption/port congestion plus c.1% of the global fleet trapped in the Gulf, the impact on the capacity side from a global level is much more limited than e.g. covid or the Red Sea crisis. From a demand point of view, the Middle East accounts for about 4% of global container imports, and many services have been suspended. For affected cargo in transit carriers have added emergency surcharges, and the industry is also implementing fuel surcharges more broadly across the network in order to pass on the significant increase bunker costs (liners don't hedge but tend to have 4-6 weeks in the tank); while this is driving freight rates higher (futures, not actual rates as of yesterday Exhibit 17), the net impact of this conflict on container lines looks mixed overall and will depend on how global demand is affected, and how the conflict is resolved (given the impact this could have on also potentially reopening the Suez).

Creuset's note includes 80 charts around the world showing disruptions. Here, we'll focus on just a few, but Professional subscribers can view the full chartbook on our Marketdesk.ai portal.

VLCC rates on offer above covid highs

NWE jet fuel cracks hit record highs

Gulf air travel implodes

Air cargo volumes slide 

Tanker traffic on Hormuz chokepoint 

Certainly, the Middle East conflict has unleashed an energy shock that is now rippling across some transportation networks, while raising new concerns about stagflation. The key question is how insulated the U.S. economy will remain. As we noted on Wednesday, one growing risk is that fertilizer disruptions could evolve into a broader global food price shock.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 16:50

Nearly One-Third Of People Living In North America Believe That World Will End During Their Lifetimes

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

We live at a time when millions upon millions of us feel deeply unsettled. The news is filled with constant headlines about war, political chaos, economic problems and major natural disasters. A lot of people feel like humanity’s story is building up to some sort of a crescendo, and they are not optimistic about what that will mean.

In fact, a new study conducted by researchers at the University of British Columbia has discovered that nearly one-third of the people living in the United States and Canada actually believe that the world will end within their lifetimes…

Almost a third of people living in the USA and Canada believe that the world will end within their lifetime. According to new research, this could affect how they view the challenges facing society, though this very much depends on what kind of apocalypse the individual is envisioning.

I was quite surprised to learn that so many people believe that the end of the world is rapidly approaching, and so were the researchers…

“Belief in the end of the world is surprisingly common across North America, and it’s significantly influencing how people interpret and respond to the most pressing threats facing humanity,” said Dr. Matthew I. Billet, the study’s lead author who conducted the research as a PhD candidate in UBC’s psychology department. He is now a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, Irvine.

The research draws on surveys of more than 3,400 people in the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S. national sample of 1,409 respondents, nearly one‑third said they believe the world will end within their lifetime.

Of course the world is not going to end any time soon.

But as global events spiral out of control, it will certainly feel like “the world is ending” to much of the population.

At this moment, the chaotic war that has erupted in the Middle East is causing emotions to run very high.

It is difficult for me to imagine how freaked out everyone will be if this war escalates even more.

Already, Iran has chosen to escalate matters quite dramatically by regularly using cluster munitions…

Hezbollah and Iran launched a coordinated strike strategy Tuesday, a national security expert claimed, as reports emerged that deadly cluster munitions were hitting Israel in synchronized attacks.

The developments unfolded on day 11 of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting Iran, marking a potential escalation in the widening regional conflict.

“Hezbollah has fully joined the war, and it looks like they are now very well coordinated with Iran,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital while speaking from his bomb shelter near Tel Aviv.

Over and over again, we have seen cluster munitions rain down in Israeli territory.

The reason why cluster munitions have been banned by more than 120 countries is because they are specifically designed to cause large scale civilian casualties over a large area…

Fox News correspondent Nate Foy also said despite Israel’s strong air defense, half of the missiles are hard to defend against because half of the missiles are cluster munitions.

“The Iranian use of cluster missiles and the idea that they deliberately target civilians and civil facilities must be considered as a use of non-conventional weapons, and the American-Israeli response must be appropriate,” Michael urged.

Banned by more than 120 nations under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, the weapons are widely condemned for their broad-area, indiscriminate effects that often result in catastrophic civilian harm.

The Iranians have also chosen to escalate matters by deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz…

Iran has deployed about a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday citing two sources familiar with the matter.

One source said the locations of most of the mines were known but declined to say how the United States planned to address them. CNN first reported the mining of the strait on Tuesday.

Even if a way can be found to remove those mines, the Iranians will just continue hitting ships with drones.

In fact, earlier today I discussed the fact that the Iranians just hit three more cargo vessels in a 24 hour period.

Of course the U.S. and Israel have been escalating things too.

Just hours ago, U.S. Central Command issued a warning urging Iranian civilians to stay away from ports along the Strait of Hormuz because the U.S. military is about to start bombing them…

On March 11, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is issuing a warning to civilians that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping.

This dangerous action risks the lives of innocent people. Civilian ports used for military purposes lose protected status and become legitimate military targets under international law.

CENTCOM urges civilians in Iran to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating. Iranian dockworkers, administrative personnel, and commercial vessel crews should avoid Iranian naval vessels and military equipment.

The regime in Iran is going to be really upset when they begin losing their most important ports.

* * * FLASH SALE ON BRAIN RESCUE! Save up to 40%.

In addition, there are unconfirmed reports that are claiming that the U.S. has just used the “Mother of All Bombs” against an underground missile storage facility…

As the widening war in West Asia continues to intensify, unconfirmed reports from local Iranian journalists suggest that the United States may have launched one of its most powerful conventional weapons against an underground military facility in central Iran.

The US Air Force aircraft, as reports suggest, hit underground installations near the city of Qods using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, also called the “Mother of All Bombs” (MOAB). The purported strike allegedly targeted an underground missile storage complex, which is believed to be associated with Iran’s military infrastructure.

The Iranians have been claiming that they have been holding back their most powerful weapons for later use.

Instead of waiting for Iran to use them, it appears that the U.S. just tried to blow them up…

It is important to understand why the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) may have seen its second operational use in history:

Iran was planning to manufacture around 200 missiles per month, with ambitions to ramp up production to 500. Within three years, such a facility could have produced over 10,000 missiles.

Imagine the devastating potential to terrorize Gulf states, Israel, and parts of Europe—especially as Iran developed longer-range missiles capable of reaching the mainland United States. Now, that key facility has been destroyed (“caput”).

I don’t think that this war is going to end any time soon.

The regime in Iran is still in power, they are still able to hit targets all over the Middle East with missiles and drones, and they are still able to paralyze traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

And the Iranians have absolutely no intention of giving up, because they intend to impose a very high level of pain on the United States and Israel before this is all over…

Iran believes there can be no end to the conflict until it believes Trump has been shown the economic, political and military cost is so high that it is not worth repeating.

As for Israel, it appears that regime change is still the ultimate goal.

In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just told the people of Iran that once conditions are right, they will have a “once in a lifetime opportunity to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom”…

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote a message on his office’s official X account on Tuesday night local time, where he addressed the people of Iran, urging them to seize what he calls a “once in a lifetime opportunity to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom”.

“The Ayatollah [Ali Khamenei] is no more, and I know you don’t want him replaced with another tyrant,” Netanyahu posted.

“So you must act. We are creating the conditions for you to do so. When the time is right, and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you. Be ready to seize the moment!”

The signal has not been given yet.

But it is coming.

Personally, I am skeptical that unarmed protesters will be able to topple the regime.

I guess that we will see.

And I think that the Iranians still have quite a few surprises up their sleeves, and that could even potentially include attacks on U.S. soil.

According to ABC News, the FBI has warned that Iran “could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast”…

The FBI warned police departments in California in recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast, according to an alert reviewed by ABC News.

“We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,” according to the alert distributed at the end of February. “We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack.”

The warning came just as the Trump administration launched its ongoing assault against the Islamic Republic. Iran has been retaliating with drone strikes against targets throughout the Mideast.

Can you imagine the panic that we would witness if Iranian drones started slamming into tall buildings in California?

It would be madness.

In the end, I do not believe that Iran will win this war.

But I do believe that the Iranians are fully capable of creating a tremendous amount of chaos.

We really are living in apocalyptic times, and much more mayhem is in our future.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 16:25

Judge Halts Construction Of ICE Detention Center In Maryland

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal authorities must stop construction of an immigration detention center in Maryland, a judge said on March 11.

Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, left, speaks as Gov. Wes Moore listens during a news conference in Baltimore, MD., on Sept. 24, 2024. Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo

U.S. District Judge Brendan Hurson imposed a temporary restraining order halting construction of the center near Williamsport in Washington County.

Maryland officials recently sued the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) over the facility, alleging authorities did not perform required steps under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), such as an environmental review.

“The State has shown that Defendants likely failed to comply with their obligations under NEPA,” Hurson said. “Defendants do not appear to have taken a ‘hard look’ at the potential environmental consequences of their plans for the Williamsport Warehouse.”

Hurson said that there is no evidence that authorities completed an environmental impact statement or environmental assessment, as is generally required under federal law. He said that the “slight inconvenience of a delay in construction” was outweighed by “ongoing and possible future irreparable harms” that the state faced absent a restraining order.

DHS did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The temporary restraining order is in place for two weeks.

Such orders can be rescinded by judges, allowed to expire, or upgraded to preliminary injunctions or blocks that remain in place as litigation proceeds.

DHS purchased a 54-acre warehouse in Williamsport for $102 million in January and was set to begin converting it into an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility on March 6 as the government ramps up efforts on immigration enforcement, including deportations.

Planned work included installing perimeter fencing, installing exterior lighting, and modifying the sanitation system, according to a government notice.

The conversion was described in a complaint from Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown as likely to harm Maryland’s natural resources and environment, including local waterways and endangered species.

He also said that authorities did not conduct an environmental review before carrying out construction and had provided little information about their plans to the state.

DHS has not yet filed any documents in the case.

“Today a federal court handed Maryland a critical victory, stopping construction that threatened our waterways, endangered species, and communities before irreversible harm could be done,” Brown said in a March 11 statement.

“Though temporary, this ruling stops the construction of this massive immigration detention center while our lawsuit continues to play out in court. We will not let DHS and ICE rush through the proper legal process in their haste to ramp up deportations. We will keep fighting to make sure the law is followed and Marylanders are protected.”

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 15:20

Musk Whips Out 'Macrohard' In Disruptive Tesla-xAI Bid To Shaft Software Companies

Elon Musk on Wednesday announced a joint project between Tesla and his AI startup xAI, which he dubbed "Macrohard" or "Digital Optimus" that can 'basically automate entire companies' by observing and intelligently simulating their functions. 

The way it works, per a Wednesday post on X: 

"Grok is the master conductor/navigator with deep understanding of the world to direct digital Optimus, which is processing and actioning the past 5 secs of real-time computer screen video and keyboard/mouse actions. Grok is like a much more advanced and sophisticated version of turn-by-turn navigation software."

So Digital Optimus is the 'instinct' while Grok is the 'thinking part of the mind' according to Musk. 

The setup will run "very competitively on the super low cost Tesla AI4 ($650) paired with relatively frugal use of the much more expensive xAI Nvidia hardware," and "will be the only real-time smart AI system." 

"In principle, it is capable of emulating the function of entire companies. That is why the program is called MACROHARD, a funny reference to Microsoft." -Elon Musk

Macrohard >> Microsoft

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 25, 2021

It gets even more wild; Musk says it works "in all AI4-equipped cars, so your car can do office work for you when not driving," and he will deploy millions of dedicated Digital Optimus units at Supercharger stations.

Oh and it works in all AI4-equipped cars, so your car can do office work for you when not driving.

We’re also deploying millions of dedicated Digital Optimus units in the field at Superchargers where we have ~7 gigawatts of available power.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 12, 2026

Grok itself suggested 10 use cases;

1. Auto data entry from invoices/docs. 
2. Real-time code fix from error messages. 
3. Deal hunting while shopping online. 
4. Contextual email response generation. 
5. Seamless enterprise software ops. 
6. Auto video edits from timeline. 
7. Live stock trade execution. 
8. Tutorial step automation. 
9. Instant security threat spotting. 
10. Entire company workflow emulation. 

According to Musk, Digital Optimus will be ready to rock in 6 months. 

xAI was acquired by SpaceX last month in an all-stock deal that valued the rocket maker at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, which comes ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO later this year. 

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 15:00

US Knows Location Of Most Iranian Sleeper Cells Inside America, Trump Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on March 11 that his administration knows the location of most Iranian sleeper cells in the United States.

President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md., on March 11, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes killed many top leaders in Iran, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and denigrated the country’s military, prompting concerns that Iranian undercover terrorist cells, or sleeper cells, may act inside the United States.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz have both publicly warned of a heightened risk of terrorism in recent days.

When asked about reports of an internal government bulletin warning of an Iranian cell in California and a question regarding how many sleeper cells are in the United States at the moment, Trump said, “We know where most of them are; we’ve got our eye on all of them,” adding that “a lot of people came in” through the border policies of the previous administration.

Earlier this month, Abbott warned of potential sleeper cells in Texas after a Senegalese man fatally shot three people and injured more than a dozen people at a bar in Austin, Texas. A law enforcement official told The Associated Press that the man, Ndiaga Diagne, was wearing clothing featuring an Iranian flag and the words, “Property of Allah.”

Earlier this week, Cruz told a reporter that the “risk of terrorism right now is quite high” as he made note of the Austin shooting and another alleged terrorist attack in New York City over the past weekend.

In the New York incident, two people were arrested following the attack in which improvised explosive devices were thrown.

On March 12, Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first statement on the conflict in the Middle East, saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be used as leverage, and that attacks on Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbors will continue. Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son of Ali Khamenei, has not yet made a public appearance.

The statement from Mojtaba Khamenei, according to Iran’s state-run PressTV, said that the “will of the people is to continue effective defense, and their presence on the scene must be maintained.” He added that the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and natural gas transport, “must remain closed.”

A banner depicting the Iranian regime's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 11, 2026. Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Khamenei said he will “will not abandon the pursuit of justice for the blood of our martyrs,” according to PressTV. “The revenge we seek is not limited to the martyrdom of the great leader of the revolution but extends to every member of the nation who is killed by the enemy,” he added.

Earlier on March 11, Trump said the war with Iran is “not finished yet.” He said that Tehran’s air force and navy have been destroyed, adding there will be “more of the same” coming to the country.

“Right now, they’ve lost their navy. They’ve lost their air force. They have no anti-aircraft apparatus at all,” he said. “They have no radar. Their leaders are gone, and we could do a lot worse.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 14:40

Apparent Vehicle-Ramming Attack And Active Shooter Situation Unfolds At Michigan Synagogue

FBI Director Kash Patel says agents are at the scene of what appears to be a vehicle-ramming attack and an active shooter situation at Temple Israel Synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan.

FBI personnel are on the scene with partners in Michigan and responding to the apparent vehicle ramming and active shooter situation out of Temple Israel Synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan. @FBIDetroit

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) March 12, 2026

Local media outlet WXYZ reports that the incident at Temple Israel Synagogue occurred around 12:30 p.m. local time. The synagogue is located off Walnut Lake Road near Drake Road in West Bloomfield.

BREAKING: Car crashes into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan, in what police are calling an "active situation."

According to local reports, a vehicle crashed into the Jewish synagogue before shots were fired.

Oakland County deputies say an individual purposely drove… pic.twitter.com/ys3RvVRnkP

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 12, 2026

The Jewish Federation of Detroit said it is aware of a "security incident" at Temple Israel.

Here's the statement:

"We are aware of a security incident at Temple Israel. We are advising all Jewish organizations to go into lockout protocol - nobody in or out of your building. More information to follow."

Statement from Michigan State Police:

"We are asking community members to stay away from the area to allow for a police response. Troopers are also increasing patrols at other places of worship in the district."

The attack comes as U.S. terrorism fears run high amid 12 days of U.S.-Israeli bombing in Iran.

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 14:00

Social Security Payment Adjustment Predicted To Be 2.8 Percent In 2027, Group Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A seniors group said it is forecasting the cost-of-living adjustment for next year’s Social Security payments to remain steady at 2.8 percent as U.S. officials released the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday.

Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility in Philadelphia, Pa., on Feb. 11, 2005. William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

The Senior Citizens League on Wednesday released its forecast adjustment for 2027’s Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.

“That would be the exact same as last year’s COLA of 2.8 percent, a far cry from the 8.7 percent COLA issued in 2023 to help benefits keep pace with pandemic-related inflation, which seniors continue to see as a top issue,” the group said, according to a news release.

Government inflation data for the months of July, August, and September compiled by the Social Security Administration (SSA) is used by the agency to produce the COLA for the next year’s payments. The SSA usually announces the COLA in October following the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Last month, the group also predicted a 2.8 percent COLA for next year’s payments, which would be the same as the COLA that went into effect for 2026.  

The seniors league said that with “lagging COLAs and Social Security’s funding creeping into dangerous territory,” it has found that many seniors have “lost faith in Congress” to act on the program. It also said it found that three in four seniors don’t believe Congress will be able to act on reports saying that Social Security will go insolvent by the early 2030s.

“Even before potential benefit cuts, most seniors think their benefits are falling behind inflation,” the league said Wednesday, citing its own research. Some 58 percent of seniors think inflation will increase their spending and deplete their retirement savings early.

Previously, the group has called for the SSA to stop relying on the Consumer Price Index for Americans who are aged 62 and older, known as the CPI-E. The SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, to calculate the payment adjustment.

“Years of lackluster COLAs and a looming Social Security insolvency crisis, with its 24 percent automatic benefits cuts, puts a double squeeze on seniors,“ said Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton in a statement Wednesday. ”Older Americans already feel like their benefits don’t keep up with inflation, so this risks putting them further and further behind, pushing many into poverty.”

Earlier in the day, the CPI report from the Labor Department rose 0.3 percent last month after gaining 0.2 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, the index advanced 2.4 percent, matching January’s increase, and reflecting last ​year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation. The increase in the CPI was in line with economists’ expectations.

The inflation data released Wednesday covered a period before the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, prompting the country to fire missiles and drones at its oil-producing neighbors and threatening to cut off the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The attacks, which were launched on Feb. 28, have boosted oil and gas prices.

Data from AAA show that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased to $3.58 on Wednesday, or an increase of around 4 cents from Tuesday. The price is up around 35 cents from a week ago and more than 60 cents from a month ago.

*  *  * FLASH SALE ON BRAIN RESCUE! Save up to 40%.  Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 13:40

Solid 30Y Auction Stops Through Despite Drop In Foreign Demand

After two mixed coupon auctions this week, including a subpar 3Y and a strong 10Y, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y bonds in another solid auction. 

The paper priced at a high yield of 4.871%, above the 4.750% in February and the highest since last July's 4.889%. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.878% by 0.7bps, the 4th consecutive stop through in a row.

The bid to cover was 2.452, down from 2.662 but above the recent average of 2.452.

The internals were a tad weaker, with Indirects buying 63.4% of the auction, down from 69.9% in February and below the six-auction average of 66.6%. Directs took down 27.2%, higher than the average 23.0%, and Dealers were left with 9.36%, up from last month's record low 5.88% but below the recent average 10.4%.

Overall, this was a solid if not stellar 30Y auction, which considering the mauling the long-end has been subjected to - note the 10Y is now trading at 4.24%, up sharply from 3.97% two weeks ago - it was a very respectable result.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 13:21