Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 November. ...

23-29 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 49.8% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$141.31 (+0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$70.42 (-0.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — December 2025

• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025.

• Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices since the early 2010s.
...
This year began with a stable growth trajectory, with national price growth posting an annual increase of 3.4% in January. However, that momentum slowed steadily as the year progressed. By October, annual appreciation was a mere 1.1% annual increase—the lowest rate since early 2012.

"The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

This deceleration highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and persistent affordability challenges. Furthermore, price growth was dampened by a notable increase in inventory. Many markets saw a surge in both existing and newly built homes, slowing rates of in-migration and weakened demand.

The robust price increases of 2022 when top metros — primarily in Florida and the Southeast — saw gains exceeding 30% has now given way to declines. At the start of 2025, only six metros — primarily in Florida — posted year-over-year drops. By October, that number surged to 32, as pricing downturns extended into Texas, California, and various states throughout the Mountain West.
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.
The list is dominated by Florida and Texas. According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

Dollar General Soars Most In Six Months As Cash-Strapped Consumers Flock To Value

Dollar General shares jumped the most in six months following a quarterly earnings beat and an upward revision to full-year guidance, reflecting continued momentum from value-seeking, cash-strapped consumers.

Dollar General posted a strong quarter, with third-quarter EPS of $1.28, beating last year's .89 cents and coming in well above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of .94 cents. Same-store sales rose 2.5%, also ahead of BBG expectations, driven entirely by higher traffic (+2.5%) while average ticket remained flat. Gains were broad-based across consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel.

Here's a snapshot of the third quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• EPS: $1.28 vs. $0.89 y/y, estimate $0.94

• Net sales: $10.65 billion, +4.6% y/y, estimate $10.62 billion

• Comparable sales: +2.5% vs. +1.3% y/y, estimate +2.47%

• Gross margin: 29.9% vs. 28.8% y/y, estimate 29.5%

• SG&A as % of revenue: 25.9% vs. 25.7% y/y, estimate 26.4%

• Operating profit: $425.9 million, +32% y/y, estimate $328.1 million

Dollar General also lifted its FY25 outlook:

• Sees comparable sales +2.5% to +2.7%, prior +2.1% to +2.6%, estimate +2.5% (Bloomberg consensus)

• Sees EPS $6.30 to $6.50, prior $5.80 to $6.30, estimate $6.12

• Sees net sales +4.7% to +4.9%, prior +4.3% to +4.8%

• Sees capital expenditure at the low end of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, unchanged, estimate $1.39 billion

• Still sees an effective tax rate of about 23.5%

In markets, DG shares surged nearly 11% - the biggest jump since early June. The stock had been down as much as 73% from its 2022 highs as high interest rates crushed lower-income consumer activity, but the rebound is now well underway. DG suddenly looks like a name to watch heading into next year. 

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane is "Buy" rated on Dollar General with a 12-month price target of $126 ... 

Here's what other Wall Street analysts are saying: 

Bernstein, outperform (Zhihan Ma)

• This is another "strong beat and raise" from Dollar General, with gross margin outperformance (up 110bps y/y) the key driver amid shrink recovery, higher inventory markups, partly offset by LIFO charges 

• NOTE: "Shrink" in retail refers reduced inventory due to theft, damage or other causes of product loss before it is sold to the consumer

• Ma notes that comp. sales were "entirely led by traffic growth while ticket was flat"

• "We don't expect outsized comp sales growth from DG, like what Five Below reported yesterday, as DG doesn't benefit nearly as much from tariff-driven price increases or Temu's pullback," she says 

• For DG, she sees further gross margin recovery potential into FY26

• "Jury is still out on the retail media growth potential," which she hasn't assigned any value to

Bloomberg Intelligence, Jennifer Bartashus

• "Dollar General's efforts to improve operations by executing well on retail basics like clean stores, in-stock levels and sufficient labor are gaining traction with core and higher- income trade-down shoppers," though it remains to be seen whether those new customers will stick, Bartashus writes

• Gains in both consumable and discretionary categories in 3Q enabled the retailer to boost annual sales and profit forecasts

Jefferies (buy), Corey Tarlowe

• This is a "clean beat" on both top- and bottom-line, driven by better‑than‑expected margins and "steady traffic gains"

• Boosted guidance signals "confidence in holiday execution and continued market share gains across both departments"

• Inventory discipline is "notable"

• "Near term, the story strengthens on operational leverage and improved cost efficiency," while longer term, "store growth and remodel productivity provide visibility into sustained EPS growth"

"The Company is raising its financial expectations for the year, primarily to reflect its outperformance in the third quarter, as well as its improved outlook for the remainder of the year, while also taking into consideration the potential for uncertainty related to consumer behavior," Dollar General wrote in a press release.

Important to note: Dollar General's customer base is primarily lower- to middle-income households that have been trapped in the K-shaped economy so far this year, still dealing with lingering woes from the Biden-Harris regime years. The third-quarter beat and rosier outlook suggest improvement within these cohorts as value-seeking consumers continue to trade down.

This previous earnings season revealed that consumers are aggressively hunting for deals:

TJ Maxx Hikes Outlook As Consumers Trade Down In Ominous Economic Signal

And there is good news for working-poor households heading into next year:

• As K-Shaped Consumer Breakdown Widens, Bessent Points To Brighter 2026

And Walmart remains the discount retailer consumers gravitate to most. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 11:25

In Case Of Emergency Break Rules

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets start the day mixed. Bad US ADP jobs data saw the old rule that this is bullish for rates, so stocks. By contrast, Australian household spending of 1.3% m-o-m (regardless of how many it covers) saw rate hike bets pick up, with the 3-year yield above 4% for the first time since January. This morning, China also set the daily reference rate for CNY significantly weaker than expected, underlining its rule remains that its currency goes where it wants, not markets – and it doesn’t want it too strong even as its trade surplus reaches staggering dimensions.

But the rules are changing. The FT says hedge funds warned the White House about picking the head of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, as the next Fed Chair because he “will be swayed by Trump on interest rates.” As our US strategist Philip Marey notes in his 2026 Outlook, that’s exactly what we expect to happen. Moreover, as underlined here many times before, that’s potentially just part of the new central banking rules as economic statecraft wins, and technocracy loses. Indeed, Bloomberg reports Treasury Secretary Bessent is floated to replace Hassett at the top of the NEC, double hatting like Secretary of State Rubio. ‘Move fast and break things’ comes to mind.

Likewise, Brussels floated “emergency” powers to raise €210bn from frozen Russian assets as: NATO’s head pledged it’s “ready to do what it takes” to protect Europe - when it isn’t; the Telegraph warned ‘Trump may now abandon both Russia and Ukraine’ - as Rubio will skip the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting for the first time in 20 years and send a NATO sceptic instead; and talk is of ‘Europe's race back to the draft’ as “Europe’s defence debate now centers on one blunt question: how many people can fight if they must?” – and “very few” is the clear answer.

The EC proposal is still de facto seizure of Russian assets with extra pledged protections for Belgium vs. Moscow’s retaliation and qualified majority voting under Article 122, allowing for ‘exceptional measures’ when the European economy is at risk, to block Hungarian or Slovakian vetoes. EU leaders will make a final decision on 18 December: if no deal can be struck, von der Leyen stated the EU will resort to joint debt issuance, as in Covid. Either way, rules are going to be broken, it seems.

Yesterday, Europe also broke more of its preferred free-market rules. It banned Russian LNG by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 2027, with oil floated by end-2027; revived its China de-risking plans in an economic security package; threatened to use its Anti-Coercion Instrument vs. China; pushed a magnet recycling plan; and announced a target for 70% of ‘critical goods’ to be “made in Europe”. Make Europe Great Again?

But can Brussels focus as the rule of law comes down on it? Politico argues, ‘Fraud probe risks plunging EU into biggest crisis in decades’ and “People who don’t like von der Leyen will use this against her.” Euractiv says, ‘Welcome to the jungle: Raids, arrests, and a crisis of EU credibility’, and “As far-right parties hammer Brussels over corruption, the EU’s own investigators may be proving them right.” Reportedly, top Commission official Sannino is also taking early retirement amid this scandal. For those thinking maybe economic statecraft is a flag to rally round, Germany’s far left just saved Chancellor Merz from a potential humiliation on pensions by abstaining in a key vote. What if a real military draft or joint debt issuance has to be voted on in Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, etc.?

For the UK, this is tricky given Labor leans towards Europe, with suggestions it might consider a rule-breaking push to re-enter the Customs Union. Yet the EU’s new stance means the UK couldn’t supply most critical goods on top of limiting its ability to trade freely with the US, the Anglosphere, Japan, or South Korea, etc., unless/until a higher tariff pan-Western trade umbrella is eventually raised vs. China (which we see as the broad Trump plan). Grand macro strategy is hard when you don’t know you are in it.

At the macro level, some rule changes are the rule. In the UK, the OBR, stuck in a scandal, says billions in green energy subsidies were excluded from the recent, controversial Budget, as Chancellor Reeves has ordered a Treasury inquiry over leaks about it. (Not the officially sanctioned ones.)

In China, Shanghai launched a clampdown on “property market doom-mongering,” with up to internet 70,000 accounts shut down. That’s after the government reportedly told two private data agencies to withhold monthly home sales data for November, and until further notice. There are questions over when we will see those series return: presumably when sales are going up… which could be some time. Yet neither this nor the news that Chinese AI and big data are officially to guard against Western values and promote socialism will shake the market rule that says China is very investable vs. the previous “uninvestable.” THAT isn’t made by portfolio managers or analysts, but the MSCI equity index review process. Until one day it isn’t.

In the US, Axios reports the White House response to political and economic pressures is to double down on “ultra-MAGA”. As a new example, car fuel efficiency standards are to be relaxed to try to bring down vehicle prices, after floated changes in health insurance and mortgages.

Part of that will also be a White House focus on robotics to match that on AI, mirroring China. Yet how that eases MAGA voters’ concerns over looming job losses is unclear, unless robots first replace the millions of workers Trump wants to deport? Logically, labor costs don’t have to rise if so – and yet that again wouldn’t please many voters either. Mirroring rule breaking because of cost pressures and potential geopolitical emergencies also sees the Pentagon deploying a new, cheap kamikaze drone directly copied from an Iranian design, the Shaheed (as used by Russia vs. Ukraine, and which was unwittingly developed in part by British universities, “because markets”).

Ultra-MAGA also seems OK with its rule change towards backing regime change in Venezuela, as the Telegraph claims Maduro’s ‘terms of surrender’ were unacceptable to Trump: a blanket amnesty for himself and top officials as well as $200m. However, there rumours fly of a looming Maduro exit to various global locations, including Qatar. For its part, China is seen as unlikely to aid Venezuela: its experts reportedly think a Trump takeover could benefit Beijing if ‘spheres of influence’ come back into vogue, which obviously brings Taiwan into the mix again.

To come full circle, once spheres of influence are brought into the debate, and they are, the underlying emergency in Europe is even clearer. It doesn’t have one - it IS one.

If so, many more rules are going to be broken; either that or comfortable delusions will be. Remember:

IN CASE OF EMERGENCY BREAK RULES

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 11:05

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:

Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.

But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in late November. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 24% YOY from $765 million in Q3 2024 to $951 million in Q3 2025. This is still historically very low, but increasing.

There is much more in the article.

"We Must Protect Volodymyr": Leaked Call Shows European Leaders Conspiring Against Trump Peace Plan

In a development that is not entirely surprising, European leaders are claiming that Washington is looking to "betray" Ukraine and President Zelensky during potential formal peace negotiations with Russia. "There is a possibility that the United States will abandon Ukraine on territorial questions without providing clarity on security guarantees," French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly said according to a "leaked" phone call record with other European leaders.

Likely this was an intentional leak and bit of strong signaling to the Trump administration, as Europe has not been on board with the US President's proposed peace plan from the start. "There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees," Macron continued. He laid his view that there was "a great danger" for Zelensky. However, Macron's office has subsequently sought to clarify that "The president did not use those words."

Via Reuters

The leaked transcript of the call between European leaders strategizing about how to protect the Zelensky government and Kiev's interests was published Thursday by the German magazine Der Spiegel.

Also reportedly on the line engaged in the conversation were German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and of course Zelensky as well.

Merz had in the dialogue agreed that Zelensky should be "extremely careful in the coming days" and warned the Ukrainian leader that "they are playing games with you and with us."

Finland's President Stubb followed with, "We must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these people" - after NATO Secretary General Rutte chimed in: "I agree with Alexander. We must protect Volodymyr." The underlying assumption seems to be that Zelensky is in a weak position and is being bullied by the more powerful US officials who have leverage.

The context to this part of the conversation is particularly interesting, given it seems to focus on Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were just in Moscow meeting with Putin, and are spearheading efforts to get the Trump 28-point peace plan (or 19-points based on reports of a revised version) past the goal line. Politico presents the section of the transcript as follows: 

Finland’s Stubb seemed to agree with Merz, according to the transcript. "We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys," he said, apparently referring to Witkoff and Kushner, which attracted agreement from Rutte. 

"I agree with Alexander — we must protect Volodymyr [Zelenskyy]," the NATO chief said. NATO declined to comment when reached by POLITICO.

Der Spiegel admits in its report that "These and other statements reproduced in the notes of the conversation illustrate the Europeans' deep distrust of the two Trump confidants." Michael Weiss, who was one of the report's co-authors, framed all of this as focused on countering "American dirty tricks to the end war."

One aspect to the conversation was the leaders found agreement on the issue of frozen Russian assets kept in EU banks, which they consider a purely European prerogative, amid recent reports the US is ready to return these to Moscow as part of a finalized Ukraine peace deal.

Washington efforts to quickly achieve peace by seriously engaging both sides are likened to "dirty tricks"?...

New at @derspiegel: We obtained the transcript of a conference call of top European leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky, warning of American dirty tricks to the end war.

Emmanuel Macron said there's a chance the U.S. will "betray" Ukraine on territory.

Friedrich Merz said: "They… pic.twitter.com/BjvzKPTw52

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) December 4, 2025

Zelensky's office has meanwhile neither conformed nor denied the accuracy of the leaked transcript. An unnamed Ukrainian diplomat did respond as follows when probed by Politico: "In general, only the Russians benefit from any splits between Europe and America, so our consistent position is that transatlantic unity must be maintained."

But the reality is that Zelensky has constantly pushed back against the idea of forging a peace without direct Ukrainian oversight and input. He has also consistently refused territorial concession, and his European backers have also balked at this key part of the Trump plan. The Kremlin is currently insisting that its control over the Donbass and Crimea not be just deemed de facto - but it wants full international and Ukrainian legal recognition that these territories are under the Russian Federation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 10:45

Why Tether Is Buying More Gold Than Many Central Banks, And What It Signals

Authored by Dilip Kumar Patairya via CoinTelegraph.com,

• Tether purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a larger quarterly acquisition than any reporting central bank. Its total holdings reached 116 tons, placing it among the world’s top 30 gold holders.

• Stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds, corporations and tech firms are increasingly active in gold markets. This trend marks a structural shift in global demand once dominated by central banks.

• Central banks added 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey and Guatemala made notable additions despite record prices.

• While central banks buy gold for national monetary policy, Tether’s purchases come from profits and support diversification, resilience and collateralization for USDT.

The global financial system is witnessing a period when non-state entities are competing with central banks to build gold reserves. Tether, the issuer of Tether USDt - the largest stablecoin in the world - is now one of the largest buyers of gold. In a single quarter, the company purchased more gold than most central banks did in the same period.

This article explores how an enterprise moved ahead of central banks in purchasing gold for its reserves and discusses independent attestations of the purchase. It also examines the rise of non-state gold buyers and what Tether’s gold buying does not indicate.

A private company outpacing central banks in buying gold

During the third quarter of 2025, Tether added 26 metric tons of gold to its holdings. According to analysts at Jefferies, this made Tether the single-largest gold buyer in that quarter, larger than the combined purchases of all reporting central banks.

By the end of September 2025, Tether’s total reported gold holdings stood at about 116 tons. If ranked alongside countries on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) official gold reserves list, this would place Tether among the top 30 holders worldwide, ahead of nations such as Greece, Qatar and Australia.

Per analysis from the investment bank Jefferies, Tether’s 26-ton purchase in Q3 2025 exceeded the official gold purchases of many mid-sized central banks during the same period. This reflects a wider trend.

Large private players, including stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds and multinational corporations, are becoming significant participants in markets once dominated by governments. Research from the World Gold Council has also pointed to rising non-sovereign demand for gold.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said on X, “While the world continues to get darker, Tether will continue to invest part of its profits into safe assets like Bitcoin, Gold and Land.” The company has emphasized that these gold purchases are made from profits, not from customer reserves that back USDT. It holds that diversification into real assets strengthens long-term resilience.

Independent attestations: The verified gold breakdowns

Tether publishes quarterly independent attestations prepared by major accounting firms. These reports provide insight into the company’s reserves:

• As of Sept. 30, 2025, gold and precious metals represent about 7% of Tether’s total consolidated reserves.

• This figure includes both gold-backed USDT and gold allocated to Tether Gold, Tether’s tokenized gold product.

• XAUT has a market value of roughly $1.6 billion, which corresponds to less than 12 tons of gold.

• More than 100 tons of the reported gold is not tied to XAUT and forms part of Tether’s broader corporate reserves and investments.

How Tether compares with central banks

The WGC “Gold Demand Trends – Q3 2025” report shows that central banks globally added a net 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025. For context, this was 28% higher than the Q2 figure and 6% more than the five-year quarterly average.

In 2025, the price of gold rose about 50% year-to-date. Record-high prices likely constrained the scale of initial purchases. However, the renewed increase in central bank demand during the latest quarter indicates that these institutions are continuing to add gold strategically. They are doing so even in the face of significantly higher prices.

To help you compare Tether’s gold purchase in Q3 2025, here is information about similar activity by central banks:

• The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the most significant purchaser in the quarter, boosting its gold reserves by 18 tons to a total of 324 tons.

• The Central Bank of Brazil, making its first gold purchase since July 2021, reported a 15-ton rise in its gold reserves in September 2025, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons.

• The Central Bank of Turkey maintained its continuous gold accumulation, with its official central bank and Treasury gold reserves growing by seven tons in Q3 to 641 tons.

• The Bank of Guatemala increased its gold reserves by six tons during the quarter, a substantial 91% jump. The bank now holds a total of 13 tons of gold, accounting for 5% of its total reserves.

While making such comparisons, it is important to remember that central banks have different objectives when purchasing gold.

Central banks acquire gold as part of their national monetary strategy, whereas Tether holds gold as part of its corporate reserves. The acquired gold serves as collateral for its stablecoin and as an asset diversification tactic.

The rise of non-state gold buyers

Before the rise of non-state gold buyers like Tether, demand for gold was driven mainly by central banks, the jewelry sector and commodity investors. In recent years, however, a growing share of gold purchases has come from private institutions, sovereign wealth funds, stablecoin issuers and corporate treasuries.

This shift is being driven by geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in currency values. Stablecoin issuers, in particular, have become significant participants. They are acquiring gold in quantities once associated with medium-sized national central banks.

Major technology companies and investment funds are also adding gold to their portfolios as part of broader strategies.

The rapid expansion of non-state gold buyers makes them a noticeable part of overall gold demand. They now form a steadily growing segment that is reshaping the pattern of global gold demand.

What Tether’s gold buying does not indicate

To prevent any misunderstanding, it is important to be clear about what this gold accumulation does not mean:

• It does not indicate liquidity problems or a risk of insolvency. Independent attestations confirm the relationship between assets and liabilities. A private entity buying gold does not, on its own, indicate financial difficulty unless such concerns are disclosed by the entity.

• It does not signal upcoming gold price moves. Gold buying by a non-state actor does not imply any market forecast or directional view.

• It is not a monetary decision in the way central banks operate. Private companies manage their reserves under different objectives and rules, and their gold holdings serve corporate and operational purposes rather than national monetary policy.

This helps place Tether’s gold buying in its proper context and supports a better understanding of what the move represents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 10:30

The post Trump Gives the Country an Economics Lesson on Tariffs appeared first on CEPR.

US Durable Goods Orders Solid In September

While 'soft' survey data has been a shitshow, 'hard' data has been stable (what little we actually had during the shutdown)...

Source: Bloomberg

Today we get more 'catch-up' data with Factory Orders and Durable Goods data for September.

US Factory Orders disappointed, rising just 0.2% MoM (+0.3% exp) and slowing notably from the +1.3% MoM jump in August (and up 3.6% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory Orders (ex-Transports) also rose 0.2% MoM, up notably from the downwardly revised 0.1% MoM decline in August (but remains up over 1% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

The final print for Durable Goods Orders were all in line with the flash prints, with the headline rising 0.5% MoMm which helped push Orders up a solid 9.6% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Durable Goods orders rose for the 6th straight month and are up over 3% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, this data is extremely stale now, but still it's positive overall (despite job losses in the goods-producing sector).

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 10:08

Meta Shares Jump After Zuckerberg Prepares Deep Cuts To Metaverse Following Epic Flop

Meta shares jumped the most in months after a Bloomberg report said Mark Zuckerberg is preparing deep cuts to the company's metaverse ambitions. The metaverse, once pitched by Zuckerberg as the "next chapter of the internet," has been nothing more than a colossal failure.

According to Bloomberg, Meta executives have discussed slashing the metaverse budget by up to 30% for 2026, which includes the virtual-worlds product Meta Horizon Worlds and its Quest virtual-reality unit. These upcoming cuts to Reality Labs' VR operations will likely result in layoffs as early as January.

Zuckerberg has reportedly asked all divisions to find 10% savings, but the metaverse unit was asked for much deeper cuts because it has been a total flop since its introduction early in the pandemic.

Here's more from the report:

The proposed metaverse cuts are part of the company's annual budget planning for 2026, which included meetings at Zuckerberg's compound in Hawaii last month, the people said. Zuckerberg has asked Meta executives to look for 10% cuts across the board, which has been the standard request during similar budget cycles the past few years, they added.

In 2021, Zuckerberg told investors in a founder's letter that the metaverse marked "the beginning of the next chapter for the internet — and the next chapter for our company."

Zuckerberg's failures continue piling up.

Meta AI - fail
Metaverse - fail
Meta glasses - fail
Meta Portal Services- fail
Meta Clubhouse - fail
Meta Threads - fail

Time to retire Zuckerberg. https://t.co/OW0IX6b4O7

— Ewan Morrison (@MrEwanMorrison) September 18, 2025

News of the metaverse cuts sent Meta shares up more than 5% in premarket trading in New York...

If the gains hold during the cash session, this would be the largest intraday jump since the 11% spike in late July. Year-to-date, shares are up 9.3% as of Wednesday's close.

In 2023...

Meta Hit With Trifecta Of Fails: Metaverse, Smart Glasses, Threads https://t.co/FLlVTDNZ5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2023

However, one area that hasn't been a failure is Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 09:55

Sam Altman Quietly Tried To Buy A Rocket Startup To Compete With Musk's SpaceX

The relationship between the OpenAI cofounders, Sam Altman and Elon Musk, has devolved into X sparring and legal battles. As the conversation surrounding data center shifts to space, a new report specifies that Altman attempted to acquire a rocket company to compete with Musk's SpaceX.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Altman explored acquiring or partnering with rocket startup Stoke Space. This move would've put him in direct competition with SpaceX, only suggesting the rivalry between the two billionaires has no limits.

Those familiar with the Altman-Stoke Space talks said those discussions to invest billions and take a controlling stake were over the summer and have since ended.

WSJ's report comes days after OpenAI declared "code red," telling employees that ChatGPT needs significant improvement in user experience, including personalization, speed, reliability, and the ability to answer a broader range of questions.

In the companywide memo, Altman also said that OpenAI would be pushing back work on other initiatives, including advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and a personal assistant called Pulse.

A separate report from Financial Times showed that OpenAI rivals from Google and Anthropic are quickly catching up in terms of features and popularity...

Altman's space ambitions come as Musk recently laid out his vision of humanoid robots, as well as AI data centers in low Earth orbit.

The lowest cost place for data centers is space when 300 GW of computer data center you can power and cool in space when you have continuous solar and no batteries needed. @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/J5EMJt8rRw

— Marc Benioff (@Benioff) November 19, 2025

Jeff Bezos has also recognized the need for data centers in space. Also, Bezos has the rocket company Blue Origin

Jeff Bezos plans to build a data center in space within the next 10+ years.

Unlimited solar energy available 24/7, space is an ideal location for data centers.$AMZN AWS is set to make major moves out there. pic.twitter.com/KJCEO973eQ

— Bourbon Capital (@BourbonCap) October 3, 2025

Given the "code red" memo Altman sent to staff earlier this week, perhaps the ChatGPT billionaire should focus on achieving AGI and keeping the AI bubble alive (read report) into next year, rather than overextending, and let Musk and Bezos figure out data centers in space with their rocket companies doing the heavy lifting.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 09:25

Treasury Boss Bessent Nukes NYT Hypocrisy Over Desperate Trump Health Smears

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered a brutal takedown of legacy media frauds Wednesday, calling out The New York Times for their shameless double standard on presidential fitness.

Fresh off a three-hour cabinet marathon with President Trump, Bessent faced down a Times hack at their own summit and laid bare the hypocrisy. The same outlet that buried Joe Biden’s dementia for years now peddles baseless panic about Trump’s vigor.

It’s the latest desperate ploy from a press corps still seething over their 2024 election wipeout, desperate to undermine a leader who’s delivering on all fronts.

? BREAKING: In a mic drop moment, Sec. Scott Bessent just PUMMELED the NYT to their faces for a HUGE double standard on Donald Trump's health

"WHERE was the New York Times? We just had a 3 hour cabinet meeting yesterday!"

"For 10 MONTHS Biden did not have a cabinet meeting.… pic.twitter.com/HyPWjPWFUF

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 3, 2025

The fireworks erupted Tuesday at the NYT’s glitzy DealBook Summit, where Bessent squared off against financial columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin. Sorkin, parroting his paper’s latest hit piece “Signs of Fatigue: Trump Faces Realities Of Aging in Office”, tried to corner Bessent on Trump’s supposed “mental decline” and reduced visibility. Big mistake. Bessent didn’t flinch—he fact-checked the fraud live on stage.

“You had what was one of the greatest scandals of all time, that the coverage of the Biden administration, Joe Biden’s diminished capacity, and the cover up. And that’s why it’s probably fair to raise these questions. Where was the New York Times? We just had a three-hour cabinet meeting yesterday, Andrew.”

He didn’t stop there, dismantling the 25th Amendment fever dreams, noting “For ten months, the Biden administration did not have a cabinet meeting… How are you going to invoke the 25th Amendment if the cabinet secretaries never see the president, which they didn’t?”

“I hear from people in the Treasury Building that I see President Trump more in a day than my predecessor saw Joe Biden in half a year!” Bessent urged while Sorkin squirmed, mumbling about “fair questions.”

Post-summit, Bessent doubled down in a further interview, admitting the Times’ lies hit him like a freight train. He couldn’t let it slide—not when the “paper of record” was torching its own credibility in real time.

“He immediately went into attack and gotcha mode! I couldn’t take the hypocrisy,” Bessent declared.

? NOW: Scott Bessent says he COULDN'T TAKE the New York Times lying to his face on stage – "So I just had to fact-check him!"

"He immediately went into attack and gotcha mode! I couldn't take the HYPOCRISY." ?

"He just played to the audience…the NYT are so far from the… https://t.co/i1IGBfZFWp pic.twitter.com/nNMnLDNZvD

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 4, 2025

“He just played to the audience…the NYT are so far from the truth,” Bessent continued, noting “How are people gonna construct the narrative of this second Trump presidency when the supposed ‘paper of record’ is so far off?!”

Bessent also described Trump’s unbreakable stamina, relating “He’ll call me, ‘Scott, I didn’t wake you, did I?’ No, sir, I’m always awake at 1:52AM on a Tuesday!”

He added, “We did the trip to Alaska. We did a round trip one day, and we arrived back…our batteries are out. We land at Andrews, and the president’s like, ‘oh, it’s morning in Europe now.’ I think we had spent probably 20 hours in the air in Alaska. And he said, ‘let’s start making phone calls and call the European leaders!’ So we had to sit on the tarmac for two more hours while he made phone calls!”

? JUST IN: Scott Bessent PUMMELS the media for latching on to the theory that Donald Trump's health is "deteriorating"

"He'll call me, 'Scott, I didn't wake you, did I?' No, sir, I'm always awake at 1:52AM on a Tuesday!" ?

"We did the trip to Alaska. We did a round trip one… pic.twitter.com/4dwZnCXtLM

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 4, 2025

“He never stops working for the American people. And it’s incredible,” Bessent urged.

Democrats and their media allies spent four years gaslighting the nation about Biden’s “sharp as a tack” facade, even as he shuffled through pressers like a man who’d lost his mind.

Now, with Trump back in the Oval Office acing cognitive tests and grinding 20-hour days, the smears fly: fatigue, decline, 25th Amendment whispers.

Trump himself torched the “crazy lunatics” in the press room, ranting: “I sit here and do four news conferences, I answer questions from very intelligent lunatics– you people.”

He mocked their flip, noting “You always find something new. Like, ‘Is he in good health? Biden was great, but is Trump in good health?!’ YOU PEOPLE ARE CRAZY!”

White House doctors backed him up with October MRI results showing “perfectly normal” cardiovascular health—no abnormalities for a 79-year-old. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt hammered it home, noting Trump’s “the most accessible president in history,” spotted “almost every single day.” Meanwhile, Biden’s crew dodged press for eight months straight, peddling “cheap fakes” excuses for his vacant stares.

CNN’s Scott Jennings piled on, nailing the Democrats’ gall in a viral clip. “It’s astonishing, frankly, that Democrats have the gall to push conspiracies about President Trump’s health after the Biden cover-up. Sorry to disappoint Democrats, but I was in the Oval Office recently — there is nothing wrong with this man,” Jennings stressed.

“This is an attempt to create a narrative that doesn’t exist because Democrats are so butthurt living through the White House claiming Biden was fine,” Jennings asserted, adding “They want to transfer that to Trump.”

It's astonishing, frankly, that Democrats have the gall to push conspiracies about President Trump's health after the Biden cover-up.

Sorry to disappoint Democrats, but I was in the Oval Office recently — there is nothing wrong with this man. pic.twitter.com/kByIPFS8R9

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) December 2, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 09:00

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Confirmed As US Jobless Claims & Hiring Plans Plummet

With the spice flowing once again (post shutdown), initial jobless claims continue to signal no labor market pain at all... plummeting last week to 191k (the lowest since Sept 2022 and before that the lowest since 1969!!)

Distortions around Thanksgiving likely skewed the reading, with California, Texas, and New York saw the largest drop in non-seasonally adjusted claims.

The drops in both California and Texas are one of the largest weekly declines seen outside of the pandemic...

It appears a lack of government firings is helping as the 'Deep Tristate' initial claims tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2024...

This lack of firing comes as ADP reports the biggest manufacturing sector job losses since COVID and Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports U.S.-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, up 24% from the 57,727 job cuts announced in the same month last year.

“Layoff plans fell last month, certainly a positive sign. That said, job cuts in November have risen above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Continuing jobless claims continue to oscillate just above the 1.9 million Maginot Line...

Yet another alternative labor market signal points to weakness (more in line with ADP's job losses) as Revelio shows 9k job losses in November...

Hiring Plans Plummet

Through November, global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that U.S. employers have announced 497,151 planned hires, down 35% from the 761,954 announced at this point in 2024.

It is the lowest year-to-date total since 2010...

WARNing

Additionally, WARN notices, which have previously led unemployment claims, are rising again.

As Bloomberg's Simon White notes, The WARN Act obliges employers with more than 100 full-time workers to provide written notice to the state and the workers themselves at least 60-90 days ahead of planned plant closings and mass layoffs. It is one of the best real-time reads on the labor market, and has remained very low and steady, around an average of 220-230k, over the past two years.

As the chart below shows, WARN notices has led previous rises in claims. It has also given some false positives, but given the likely impact on yields should we see a sudden deterioration in employment, the recent rise is notable.

That the slowing in the jobs market is set to gather pace is captured in other indicators.

The NFIB small business survey polls respondents on whether they think the single most important problem they face is poor sales.

That has been rising, which often precedes the unemployment rate. Small businesses employ about half the workforce in the US and given the plunge in small business jobs reported by ADP yesterday, it seems labor market pains are starting to accelerate under the surface.

In short - the labor market remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma with every indicator pointing in different directions - choose your own adventure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 08:58

Futures Rise, S&P Set For 8th Gain In 9 Days

US equity futures rise, trading less than a percent away from a new record high amid signs of a leadership rotation with Big Tech not leading the bounce this time. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by about 0.1% after climbing in seven of the past eight sessions and extend on Wednesday's gains when bad news was good news as a soft ADP jobs report bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. Challenger job cuts data for November showed job cuts fell 53% to 71,321 last month from October, but rose 24% from the 57,727 job cuts announced in the same month last year. Pre-market, Mag 7 were up a touch, led by TSLA (+0.9%), META (+0.6%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Salesforce is higher after its forecast beat and it gave a positive view on AI adoption. Bond yields were up modestly, USD unchanged, reversing an earlier drop to a one month low. Commodities are mixed: Oil and base metals are mostly higher; gold/silver are lagging. Bitcoin trades around $93, rebounding almost $10K from its low just days ago. Today's calendar includes November Challenger jobs cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and September factory orders (10am)

In pre-market trading, tech stocks were broadly steady with all Magnificent Seven megacaps apart from Apple posting modest gains, while Salesforce climbed on signs that customers are embracing its artificial intelligence tools. 

• Mag 7 stocks mostly higher (Tesla +0.6%, Nvidia +0.4%, Meta +0.8%, Alphabet +0.6%, Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple -0.04%)
• Axogen (AXGN) rises 5% after the provider of medical and surgical instruments said the FDA approved its biologics license application for its Avance nerve graft to treat peripheral nerve discontinuities.
• Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) gains 3% after activist investor Barington Capital Group has taken a stake in business payments firm.
• Costco falls (COST) 1.1% after the retailer reported total comparable sales for November that missed the average analyst estimate. 
• Dollar General (DG) rises 4% after the company raised its full-year outlook, highlighting value-focused retailers are winning over consumers hunting for deals.
• Guidewire (GWRE) jumps 5% after the software company’s first-quarter results and second-quarter revenue forecast topped analysts’ expectations.
• Hormel (HRL) rises 6% after the protein producer’s 3Q adj. EPS forecast beat the company’s recently lowered guidance, as well as the Street consensus.
• MBX Biosciences (MBX) slips 3% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the drug developer with a sell rating, citing risk to the firm’s data readout in the near term.
• Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is up 1.9% after the software company gave an outlook for revenue in the current period that topped analysts’ estimates, suggesting it is persuading customers to buy its AI tools.
• Snowflake (SNOW) falls 8% after the software company issued a forecast for operating margin in the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Analysts noted a deceleration in product revenue growth.
• UiPath (PATH) rises 8% after the software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations. It also gave a forecast.
• UniQure (QURE) falls 13% after saying the FDA indicated that data from its Phase I/II studies of an investigational gene therapy for Huntington’s disease are unlikely to provide primary evidence to support a biologics license application submission.
• ZIM (ZIM) rises 3% after Globes reports that Hapag-Lloyd submitted a bid to purchase the shipping company, without saying where it got the information.

Fed rate-cut expectations have fueled a broad rebound after November’s slump, with investors turning to defensive and other sectors as worries over stretched tech valuations persist. The small-cap Russell 2000 index is now just shy of a record high, while the Nasdaq 100 remains about 2% below its peak.

“We’re expecting a broadening of the rally for sectors that have so far been lagging,” said Amelie Derambure, senior portfolio manager at Amundi SA in Paris. “The Russell is very sensitive to interest rates, so the figures reinforced the market’s idea that the Fed will be able to lower rates, in a non-recessionary context.”

A report on corporate job-cut announcements from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. added to evidence that the US labor market is softening. Announced layoffs fell last month after surging in October, but were still the highest for any November in three years, according to the outplacement firm. Meanwhile, YTD hiring plans are the lowest since 2010.

With official data still delayed, private indicators have increasingly pointed to employment coming under pressure from company belt-tightening and weaker spending. Worries about the jobs market and expectations that President Donald Trump will choose a Fed chair who shares his dovish stance have shifted market pricing toward as many as four rate cuts through 2026. Still, with the broader economy resilient, easier policy should continue to support stocks.

“Retail momentum stocks and crypto are still way below the recent peaks, though both have recovered from the recent lows,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “We see sentiment remaining positive into year-end.”

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is looking past this month’s decision to what it calls a “foggy” Fed rate path in 2026. Risks to its terminal-rate range are skewed to the downside amid labor-market weakness, the bank wrote. They still expect two rate cuts next year. JPMorgan strategists expect the market to be boosted by higher equity demand next year. They project a supply-demand “improvement” of around $700 billion in 2026, which would be the strongest year since 2023.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is 0.3% higher with the DAX outperforming. Autos and industrial stocks are leading the way in Europe while utilities and healthcare dip. Automakers gain as Bank of America upgrades some stocks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Mercedes, Renault gain as much as 4.4% and 4.8% respectively while holding company Porsche SE rises 5.7%, as Bank of America upgrades the stocks due to a more positive view on the European autos sector.
• Storytel gains as much as 6.5% after SEB initiated coverage of the Swedish audiobook and publishing house with a buy rating, saying the company has improved the quality of its subscriber base and its internal efficiency.
• Cosmo shares rise as much as 5.5%, adding to Wednesday’s 20% jump following positive late-stage trial results for the life science company’s experimental treatment for male hair loss.
• Balfour Beatty shares rise as much as 2.4% after the engineering and construction group said it expects to grow its order book by 20% in 2025 and confirmed more buybacks are on the way in 2026.
• Philips shares drop as much as 8.6% after Citi analysts noted tariff and China challenges for 2026.
• Trustpilot shares fall as much as 21% after Grizzly Research published a report on the consumer-review company.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a third straight day, led by gains in Japan as regional tech shares tracked their US peers higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.9%, with SoftBank Group and Keyence among the biggest contributors. Shares fluctuated in China and Hong Kong, while South Korean stocks slipped. India’s benchmark struggled to hold early gains even as the rupee strengthened against the dollar. Sentiment across the region is improving on rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month after the latest US jobs data. Meanwhile, a slightly weaker yen is providing an extra lift to Japanese exporters. Semiconductor shares are showing signs of weakness, with South Korea’s tech-heavy stock index slipping more than 1% as foreign funds take profit. A Microsoft Corp. update is also weighing on sentiment, after a media report that the firm lowered expectations for business customers buying on the cloud unit’s marketplace for artificial intelligence models and agents.

In FX, the dollar gives up earlier gains, Aussie outperforming on bets the central bank may pivot back to rate hikes.

In rates, global bonds weakened, driven by rising yields in Japan. Sentiment shifted as some senior government officials signaled they wouldn’t oppose a Bank of Japan rate hike this month. Treasury yields are rising across the curve. German bonds falling on growing government uncertainty. Gilts are outperforming after very weak construction activity data sparks a small increase in BOE rate-cut bets.  

In commodities, oil prices are higher, albeit with some volatility. Brent is trading around $63/barrel. Gold is recovering ground and now trading close to $4,200/oz. Bitcoin, meanwhile, held above $93,000. The dollar was little changed.

US economic calendar includes November Challenger jobs cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and September factory orders (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini and Nasdaq 100 mini little-changed
• Russell 2000 mini steady 
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.8%
• CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.08%
• VIX +0.1 points at 16.17
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1212.82
• euro little changed at $1.1668
• WTI crude +0.4% at $59.21/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump’s aides are considering having Scott Bessent also head the National Economic Council if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, people familiar said. BBG
• Trump's administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
• Trump said he may work out another trade deal with Canada and Mexico. BBG
• Vladimir Putin said Russia didn’t agree with some points of the US peace proposal for Ukraine, Tass reported, citing his interview with a local media outlet. Earlier, Trump called the meeting between Steve Witkoff and Putin “reasonably good” but next steps remain unclear. BBG
• Emmanuel Macron met Xi Jinping in Beijing and urged China to boost investments in France, as both sides look to rebalance their economic ties. BBG
• Cambricon plans to more than triple its production of AI chips to half a million units in 2026, people familiar said. The Beijing-based company aims to rival Huawei in China and fill a void left by Nvidia’s forced exit. BBG
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday there was uncertainty on how far the central bank could raise interest rates due to the difficulty of estimating the country's neutral rate of interest. RTRS
• The Indian rupee will regain some lost ground against the U.S. dollar over the next three months, but a reversal in the currency's fortunes hinges upon India and the U.S. agreeing to a trade deal. RTRS
• Paramount more than doubled its breakup fee to $5 billion in its offer to acquire Warner Bros., signaling confidence it can clear regulatory hurdles. BBG
• Meta Platforms Inc. has been hit by a full-scale European Union antitrust investigation over how its AI features in WhatsApp may be harming competition, in the latest probe into Big Tech’s dominance on the continent. The bloc’s digital chief signaled she wants to conclude several ongoing investigations into tech giants this month including Elon Musk’s X. BBG
• For all the focus on ADP (historically very noisy), the Indeed Hiring Lab data actually picked back up in the last couple of weeks (need more data). Notable was the a re-acceleration in open jobs in construction (see below). What if AI adoption is slower or less transformative in the near term… the labor market re-accelerates… and inflation proves hotter in 2026? Not at all my base case but inversion an in important part of the process: Goldman

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
• US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry, on rare earth export controls, said as long are export license applications are for civilian use, they will be approved.
• Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
• India's Trade Minister said exports of autos, electronic goods, textiles and machinery to Russia are expected to increase. India also aims to expand and diversify exports to Russia to address the trade imbalances. India has secured a USD 2bln submarine deal, Bloomberg reported during the visit of Russian President Putin.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall St, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts. ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks. Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.

Top Asian News

• PBoC Governor Pan said in a People's Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.

BOJ

• BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan's government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Key members of Japanese PM Takaichi's government would not try to prevent a BoJ hike in December, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
• BoJ is carrying out an assessment of the level of neutral interest rate, according to Jiji.
• BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate, with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range, and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.

European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though morning news flow has been light. Markets expect Kevin Hassett to be named the next Fed Chair, with some concerns that he could be influenced by President Trump on rates. Meanwhile, Reuters and Bloomberg reported hawkish signals suggesting the BoJ is likely to raise rates in December with government approval. Sectors are mixed with a positive tilt: Autos, Industrial Goods & Services and Technology lead. At the bottom: Utilities, Basic Resources and Health Care.

Top European News

• BoE Decision Maker Panel Survey (Nov): Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%; Expected year-ahead wage growth rose slightly, by 0.1ppt to 3.8% in the three months to November

FX

• DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength after Reuters and Bloomberg reported the BoJ is likely to hike rates in December with government approval. Money markets were already pricing a 66% chance of a hike following Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks. USD/JPY slipped from 155.54 to a 154.77 low, with next support at the 1 December trough of 154.66.
• AUD is firmer amid continued hawkish repricing of RBA expectations.
• G10 FX is otherwise mostly flat and taking its cue from the USD, with few fresh drivers. EUR and GBP were little moved by Construction PMI releases.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)
• Chinese State-owned banks reportedly bought USD on the onshore spot market this week in a bid to rein in CNY strength, according to Reuters sources.
• RBI to tolerate a weaker rupee as dollar inflows diminish, according to Reuters sources.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning has unfolded.
• JGBs underperformed, falling as much as 42 ticks to a new contract low of 134.08. The move pushed the 20yr yield to its highest since June 1999 and the 30yr yield to a record high, with selling driven by reports that boosted December BoJ hike odds to above 65%.
• The bearish tone extended into USTs and Bunds (now trading the Mar’25 contract), which hit lows of 112-27 and 128.46, down eight and 16 ticks respectively. European newsflow was limited; French and Spanish supply saw no major reaction, with Spain’s auction strong and France’s slightly softer versus prior.
• For USTs, focus beyond the BoJ remains on the Fed Chair narrative. The FT noted bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury over Hassett’s potential appointment due to his perceived alignment with the President. Kalshi odds for Hassett have slipped to ~75% from above 80% earlier in the week.
• Spain sells EUR 2.88bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 2.70% 2030, 0.85% 2037 Bono and EUR 0.481mln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L.
• France sells EUR 5.06bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-5.5bln 4.75% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 4.50% 2041, 3.25% 2055 OAT.
• UK sells GBP 1bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.88x, average yield 4.813%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks were firmer through the APAC session despite constructive comments from US and Russian officials after their recent Moscow meeting. Both benchmarks climbed to highs of USD 59.42/bbl (WTI) and USD 63.08/bbl (Brent) before easing to USD 59.11/bbl and USD 62.74/bbl as risk sentiment softened following the hawkish BoJ reports.
• XAU posts modest gains early in APAC, reaching USD 4,217/oz before sliding to USD 4,176/oz and remaining below USD 4.2k/oz. Despite a recent soft ADP print and mixed services PMI, gold has unwound its data-driven uptick as broader risk sentiment improves.
• 3M LME copper traded within a USD 11.43k–11.53k/t range in APAC before retreating from Wednesday’s all-time high of USD 11.54k/t, now at session lows around USD 11.35k/t. The pullback follows Rio Tinto’s raised 2025 copper production guidance and Goldman Sachs’ scepticism over the recent rally.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.
• Iraq has decided to freeze the money of "terrorists", including Hezbollah and the Houthis, via the Official Gazette

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens", while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
• White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.
• Russian President Putin said the meeting with US' Witkoff and Kushner was necessary and very useful, but it is "too early to say"; said Russia will take control of Donbas and Novorossiya by military means or otherwise.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the attacks on tankers in the Black Sea and CPC are aimed at disrupting the peace talks in Ukraine.
• A Ukrainian official has reportedly cautioned that Thursday's meeting between Ukraine's Umerov and US' Witkoff is a "debrief" by the US and not "a negotiating session...", FT reported.

Geopolitics: Other

• Venezuela's President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.
• China is said to be gathering military ships across East Asia in a show of maritime force, according to Reuters sources

US Event Calendar

• 7:30 am: Nov Challenger Job Cuts YoY, est. 48%, prior 175.3%
• 8:30 am: Nov 29 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 216k
• 8:30 am: Nov 22 Continuing Claims, est. 1962.61k, prior 1960k
• 10:00 am: Sep Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 1.4%
• 10:00 am: Sep F Durable Goods Orders, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: Sep F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Sep F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%
• 10:00 am: Sep F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets continue to be in consolidation mode, with the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) both posting modest gains yesterday. The session had started on the back foot as the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed the biggest monthly drop since March 2023, but most assets recovered by the end of the session, as data cemented the view that the Fed would likely cut rates at next week’s meeting. So lots of assets were up by the close, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-2.3bps) down to 4.06%, whilst Bitcoin (+2.30%) reached a two-week high of $93,722 and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.91%. In Japan this morning a strong 30yr auction has led to a decent long-end rally even as other parts of the curve sell off.  

In terms of that ADP report, the headline was that private payrolls fell by -32k in November, undershooting expectations for a +10k rise. The losses were largely concentrated around small businesses (-120k), which saw their largest decline in employment since the pandemic, although payrolls from medium (+51k) and large businesses (+39k) fared better. There were also some questions about regional distortions as the aggregate decline came due to outsized losses in regions along the Atlantic coast. Still, the negative signal from the ADP report received more attention than usual because of the data backlog from the shutdown. So we aren’t getting the usual payrolls this Friday, and the ADP is one of the final pieces of information the Fed will get on the labour market ahead of next week’s decision.

That dovish momentum from the ADP report then got a further boost from the ISM services print. The headline measure was a bit stronger than expected at 52.6 (vs. 52.0 expected), but crucially, the prices paid component fell to a 7-month low of 65.4 (vs. 68.0 expected), which eased concerns about tariff-driven inflation. That component has been strongly correlated to inflation with a lag, so the bigger-than-expected decline helped solidify expectations for a Fed rate cut. Moreover, the employment component remained in contractionary territory at 48.9, so again that echoed the weaker message from the ADP print.

Those prints helped US Treasuries to rally across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 3.49%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.3bps) fell to 4.06%. And in turn, that saw the dollar index (-0.49%) post its worst day in seven weeks and fall to its weakest level since October 28, the day before Fed Chair Powell said that a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion”. This morning, 2 and 10yr US yields are back up +2bps, nearly wiping out yesterday's gains.  

Meanwhile for equities, the S&P 500 (+0.30%) continued to move higher, closing less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October. However, there were some fluctuations over the session, and Microsoft (-2.50%) shares fell after tech news outlet The Information reported that Microsoft had lowered their AI software sales quota. That was pushed back on by a spokesperson for Microsoft, and the share price recovered a bit when CNBC reported they hadn’t lowered the quotas. However, Microsoft shares then sold off again into the close, reviving investor fears about AI valuations. Nevertheless, that wasn’t enough to knock the broader market. The Magnificent 7 (+0.12%) still rose on the day thanks to a +4.08% gain for Tesla. And it was a strong day for market breadth with two thirds of the S&P 500 stocks higher on the day and the small cap Russell 2000 rising +1.91%.

Over in Europe, it was also a data heavy day with the final PMI releases. Those were broadly positive, and the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised up to 52.8 (vs. flash 52.4), its highest level in two-and-a-half years. So that continues the positive momentum seen in the PMIs over recent months, and helped to bolster sentiment, with upward revisions in Germany, France and the UK for the composite PMI. In turn, that helped the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) to just about post a modest gain, although it was a pretty subdued day across the continent, with the FTSE 100 (-0.10%), the CAC 40 (+0.16%), and the DAX (-0.07%) all seeing little movement.

There was also little movement in European fixed income, with 10yr bund yields (-0.2bps) barely moving. However, we did hear from ECB Chief Economist Lane, who discussed how the ECB should react to medium-sized inflation shocks, and energy price shocks in particular. He argued that inflation risk wasn’t one-way and that the bank had recently seen some upside surprises, so his comments offered support for the view that rates are likely to be kept on hold through the energy-induced inflation undershoot in 2026.

On the geopolitical front, the perception was that the prospect of a breakthrough in the talks on Ukraine continued to ebb yesterday, with the Polymarket chances of a ceasefire by end-March falling back to just 22%, having been at 27% when we went to press yesterday. In turn, there was a reaction among assets more sensitive to the conflict, with the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index up +2.26%, whilst Brent crude oil prices (+0.35%) were up to $62.67/bbl.
In Asia, Japanese stocks are leading the way, with the Nikkei rising by +2.00% and the Topix increasing by +1.86%, both outperforming their regional counterparts. The ASX (+0.27%) is also higher, with the Hang Seng flat and the Shanghai Comp -0.20% lower. The KOSPI is the largest underperformer, down -0.71%. US futures are flat.  

Early morning data revealed that Australia’s household spending significantly exceeded expectations in October, marking its largest increase since January 2024, thereby strengthening the argument for an interest rate hike next year. Spending rose by +1.3% from September, surpassing economists’ forecasts of a +0.6% increase. Year-on-year, consumption has increased by +5.6%, compared to the anticipated +4.6% rise. 2yr and 10yr Aussie yields are up +7.5bps and 6bps respectively.  

In the bond markets, Japan’s 30-year bonds gained following an auction that attracted the highest demand since 2019, as elevated yields drew in investors. The yield on the 30-year bond decreased by -3bps to 3.39% after the bid-to-cover ratio surged to 4.04, up from 3.125 at the previous auction in November. This strong outcome for the 30-year auction followed a successful sale of 10-year debt earlier in the week, which also saw robust demand. However the rally at the long end today seems to have been funded from elsewhere in the curve with the 10yr yield +3.8bps higher this morning.

To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims, the November construction PMIs from the UK and Germany, and Eurozone retail sales for October. Central Bank spearers include the Fed’s Bowman, the ECB’s Kocher, Cipollone and Lane, and the BOE’s Mann. Notable earnings include Kroger, Dollar General and HPE.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 08:50

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 189,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,750.

Ex-Pornhub Owner Interested In Purchasing Lukoil Assets

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Austrian businessman Bernd Bergmair, former majority owner of Pornhub, has approached the U.S. Treasury about buying assets of Russian oil major Lukoil after the Trump administration sanctioned the company. 

"Obviously Lukoil International GmbH would be a great investment and anybody would be fortunate to have the privilege of owning those assets,” Bergmair told Reuters.

"I don’t comment on potential investments as a matter of course," he added.

Last month, U.S. Treasury issued the greenlight for companies to begin talks with Lukoil for its foreign assets, with U.S. oil and gas giants Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have already expressed interest. Exxon is in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry to buy Lukoil’s 75% stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the country’s largest. Iraq's oil ministry has invited several U.S. oil companies to enter negotiations over the West Qurna 2 takeover through a competitive bidding process. West Qurna-2 oilfield produces more than 400,000 bpd of crude.  The Iraqi government has taken over operations at West Qurna 2, including paying staff salaries directly.

Previously, Lukoil reached a preliminary agreement with Gunvor to buy its international assets. However, the giant commodity trader pulled the $22-billion bid after the U.S. Treasury Department expressed dissatisfaction with the deal, calling Gunvor a Russian “puppet”. 

“President Trump has been clear that the war must end immediately. As long as Putin continues the senseless killings, the Kremlin’s puppet, Gunvor, will never get a license to operate and profit,” the U.S. Treasury said in a post on X.

Unfortunately, the latest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have been unfruitful after the Kremlin failed to agree to Trump’s 19-point peace plan. Some of the critical amendments in the new plan include no handover of the Donbas region to Russia for free, no automatic veto on Ukraine joining NATO in the future and provision of Article 5-style protection for Ukraine, meaning the U.S. would be bound to intervene if Russia invades in the future. A proposal for full amnesty for war crimes that was part of the first plan has also been removed. 

Ukraine has doubled down on attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including the latest attack on a shadow fleet vessel in African waters.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 08:05

Goldman Warns Copper's Parabolic Breakout Lacks Stability

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange opened the week with a breakout to new record highs (see report). On Wednesday, we highlighted a Goldman note detailing the "circular melt-up" mechanics driving the move higher. By Thursday, a separate Goldman analyst was cautioning clients that the parabolic move above $11,000/ton is unlikely to last.

At 6:30 ET, LME copper futures hit a fresh record at $11,575/ton, driven by a scramble to move metal into the US warehouses ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs and a burst of demand from Asia. The combination has intensified global tightening fears amid soaring AI data center buildouts and massive power grid upgrades.

The question now is how long this breakout into record territory can last, and whether the momentum will carry into 2026. To address that question, a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham published an overnight note titled "Copper: Our Favourite Industrial Metal."

"For 2026, we hold a selective outlook for industrial metals. Copper is our 'favourite' industrial metal as constrained mine supply growth and structural demand growth from grid & power infrastructure move the market towards balanced in 2026, from oversupplied in 2025," Waltham told clients.

She continued, "Additionally, higher ex-US premia and conversations with physical traders point to a larger-than-expected reacceleration of copper flows into the US in H1 2026 ahead of a potential tariff, which should further tighten the ex-US market. As a result, we lift our average H1 2026 LME copper price forecast to $10,710 (from $10,415)."

Waltham addressed the ongoing parabolic price surge on the LME this week with a clear note of caution for clients:

That said, we do not expect the market to enter a period of material tightness until the end of the decade. Already-stretched speculative length means that we do not expect the current breakout above $11,000 to be sustained (as was the case in October). Most of the recent price increase has been driven by expectations of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals (Exhibit 4).

The analyst noted:

While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160kt moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon.

Beyond Waltham's view, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria recently told Bloomberg, "If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world."

Bintas warned, "Just looking at the facts, mathematically… what is going to happen if all of this continues? There's only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price."

Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures, a unit of a commodities hedge fund in Shanghai, said, "The rally has just started, we remain bullish on copper prices."

The takeaway: LME copper futures look firmly pointed up and to the right for years to come, but the pace of the move is where some analysts' views sharply diverge.

If you've been putting off those copper gutters or pipes for your next home-improvement project, you should lock them in sooner rather than later.

ZeroHedge Pro subs can read the full note in the usual place. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 07:45

Clear That 'Something Behind The Scenes Is Breaking' Holter Warns, We're Headed For A Derivative Meltdown

Authored by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) said at the beginning of November that there was “more risk in the financial system now than any time ever.”  

There are so many ways the system can break down it’s hard to keep track, but let’s start with exploding silver prices that happened at the end of last week.  Holter says,

“In a 48-hour period of time, silver was up over $5 per ounce.  It’s pretty clear and pretty obvious that something behind the scenes is breaking. 

We know that the lease rates have exploded.  We know that the borrow rates on SLV have exploded. 

We also know that in the last 5 to 7 years, silver has been in a deficit... At this point, you are looking at a 400-million-ounce deficit on an annual basis, and global production is 850 million ounces...

The rumor is somebody has put in a $20 billion order, which would mean 400 million ounces. 

If that is the case, that order cannot be met, and that will create shark infested waters...

If somebody stands for delivery and it looks like it may be difficult for them to get delivery, then everybody is going to stand for delivery because they know that their contracts are worthless.”

What would happen if there is an actual failure to deliver in the silver market?  Mr. Gold says,

“If that gets confirmed, then that one day you will see a huge spike, but markets won’t open after that.  That will cascade.  What will happen is all the COMEX contracts for both silver and gold will default. 

That will spill over to the rest of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange).  It has contracts on US Treasuries and stocks.  They have contracts on everything.  If the silver contracts blow up and the gold contracts blow up, how much confidence are you going to have on pork bellies or stocks...

The derivative market is $2 quadrillion.  In the future, you are going to measure your wealth by how many ounces of silver and how many ounces of gold you own...

Once you get a failure to deliver, you will get a Mad Max scenario.  Failure to deliver will melt down all derivatives. 

The world runs on credit, and credit runs on faith.  If you break faith, then you have a real problem in the financial markets and the real economy.”

In closing, Holter warns, “The problem is there is very little collateral left.  Everything has been borrowed against already.” 

Holter is not alone in his thinking about huge risk in the system.  It appears billionaire investors Jeff Gundlach and Ray Dalio agree with Holter, and they are warning of liquidity problems.  For the first time in their successful careers, they are both buying physical gold.

On a total system stopping derivative meltdown, Holter says, “Most people think it is not possible, and it can’t happen.  Mathematically, a meltdown in derivatives that melts everything down is coming.  It’s over.  Mathematically, it’s over.”

There is much more in the 41-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as the risk in the financial system increases for 12.2.25. 

To Donate to USAWatchdog Click Here

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 07:20

European Carmakers Surge After Trump Rolls Back Fuel Rules

European automaker shares rose sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump moved to roll back U.S. fuel economy limits established under Joe Biden, according to Reuters. The administration framed the proposal as a way to lower consumer costs by making it easier for companies to sell gasoline-powered vehicles.

By mid-morning, Porsche shares were up more than 5%, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo Car gained nearly 4%, Renault rose 3.3%, and Stellantis climbed around 2.7% after an 8% rally the previous day.

Speaking from the Oval Office alongside industry executives and lawmakers, Trump announced the reversal of the Biden-era rules, saying, “We’re officially terminating Joe Biden’s ridiculously burdensome, horrible, actually, CAFE standards that impose expensive restrictions and all sorts of problems — gave all sorts of problems to automakers. And we’re not only talking about here, we’re talking about outside of our country.”

He also said his administration would revoke California’s emission waivers, following a Senate vote earlier this year to overturn them. A White House official said the reset could save Americans up to $109 billion.

Reuters writes that automakers responded favorably. Ford CEO Jim Farley said the move aligns regulations with market conditions, adding, “We can make real progress on carbon emissions and energy efficiency while still giving customers choice and affordability.”

Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa said the company supports policies that are “environmentally responsible” but also allow consumers “the freedom to choose the vehicles they want at prices they can afford.” General Motors backed the idea of a single national standard and said it remains committed to offering both electric and gasoline-powered models.

Volvo Cars said it is too early to assess the effects of the regulatory shift. Although aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2040, the company has already announced plans to expand hybrid production in the United States, with new models scheduled as late as 2029.

Market analysts said the rollback had been widely anticipated. Martino De Ambroggi of Equita noted that the change should benefit the industry and pointed to reports that the European Union may loosen or revise its planned 2035 ban on combustion-engine car sales. Industry sources said this week that the European Commission could delay announcing its support package for the region’s carmakers.

The move is expected to intensify debate over whether weaker standards actually reduce costs for drivers. Consumer Reports found “no systemic, statistically significant increase” in inflation-adjusted vehicle prices from 2003 to 2021, while fuel economy improved 30% over the same period.

The organization estimated that consumers saved “$7,000 in per-vehicle lifetime fuel savings for model year 2021 vehicles compared with model year 2003.”

Environmental groups criticized the policy shift, arguing it will raise long-term fuel expenses and emissions. Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Safe Climate Transport Campaign, said, “In one stroke Trump is worsening three of our nation’s most vexing problems: the thirst for oil, high gas pump costs and global warming.” He said stronger standards are essential to U.S. competitiveness, warning that Trump’s action “will feed America’s destructive use of oil, while hamstringing us in the green tech race.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 06:55

My morning train WFH reads:

• Time to admit the truth: Brexit has been an unmitigated economic failure: Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study. GDP down up to 8%; Investment down 18%; Productivity down 4%; Employment down 4%; No upside whatsoever. (The Telegraph)

• Office-to-Residential Conversions Are Booming and New York Is the Epicenter: A tour of Manhattan buildings you can now call home, and a peek inside the architectural hacks that make transformations possible. (Wall Street Journal) see also When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It: More than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut. (Wall Street Journal)

• America is Flying Blind on Immigration: Nobody Knows How Many Immigrant Workers Have Left the US Amidst Trump’s Mass Deportations. That’s Incredibly Bad. (Apricitas Economics)

• I love AI. Why doesn’t everyone? Anti-AI sentiment might or might not be rational, but it certainly relies on a lot of bad arguments. (Noahpinion)

• Inside the Ostrich Effect: How Ignorance Has Become a Survival Strategy: Research suggests our tendency to ignore bad news isn’t irrational — it’s self-preservation, and could help explain why older people are often happier. (Bloomberg)

• Cities Panic Over Having to Release Mass Surveillance Recordings: Flock’s ‘licence plate readers’ read much more than license plates. A judge says what they record must be released. (God’s Spies)

• The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. If Waymo’s results are indicative of the broader future of autonomous vehicles, we may be on the path to eliminating traffic deaths as a leading cause of mortality in the United States. (New York Times)

• What Is the “Bean Soup Theory” on TikTok? Bean soup is sparking conversations about the rise of egocentrism. (Inside Hook)

• Russia Gains the Upper Hand in the Drone Battle, Once Ukraine’s Forte: Moscow’s military has gotten better at using the war’s deadliest weapons: small, cheap drones. (Wall Street Journal)

• Pete Hegseth Needs to Go—Now: A man with such contempt for the military should not run the Pentagon. (The Atlantic) see also Hegseth, with White House help, tries to distance himself from boat strike fallout: As Congress vows accountability, the Trump administration emphasized it was a top military commander — not the defense secretary — who directed the engagement. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder of JPMorgan Alternative Asset Management. The JPM group manages $35 billion in external hedge fund solutions for institutional and high-net worth investors. He also heads the Portfolio Management Group, and is a member of the JPMAAM Investment Committee.

 

Money-Market Assets Rise to Record $8 Trillion

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.