Individual Economists

US To Start New Trade Talks With Mexico

Zero Hedge -

US To Start New Trade Talks With Mexico

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Wednesday it will begin a series of trade negotiations with Mexico this week tied to the first review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with no talks involving Canada announced so far.

The talks are part of the first formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement since it replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer speaks during a tour of the Atomic Industries manufacturing facility in Warren, Mich., on April 9, 2026. AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

The U.S. Trade Representative's office said the negotiations will focus on economic security, industrial rules of origin, agriculture, and maintaining what it described as a "level playing field" for American workers and businesses. Rules of origin determine how much of a product must be manufactured within North America to qualify for tariff-free treatment under the trade pact.

The announcement made no mention of negotiations involving Canada, despite the agreement formally including all three North American countries.

U.S. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) stated on X that the first review of the USMCA "will be a key test of whether the pact reinforces confidence in the North American market or creates more uncertainty."

"The prices of fertilizer, fuel, and equipment, and whether corn, soybeans, and pork have steady buyers, all hinge on the outcome," Young wrote.

Young said the USMCA "is not perfect" and said that Mexico's threats against U.S. corn products and Canada's import controls of its dairy market "should be confronted directly."

The United States expects tariffs to be part of trade negotiations with Mexico this week as officials begin discussions on renewing the USMCA, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said May 26.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., Greer said President Donald Trump remains concerned about the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and indicated tariffs would remain part of U.S. trade policy. He also said negotiators are expected to discuss increasing requirements for American-made content in goods produced in North America.

Greer said Mexico has benefited from U.S. efforts to diversify supply chains away from China and said the administration wants a broader distribution of production. He added that the United States wants more supply chains based in the Americas following shortages experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Greer said negotiations with Mexico are expected to be productive, but described trade talks with Canada as more difficult. Canada and China were the only countries that retaliated against the United States over tariffs.

U.S. officials said the negotiations are intended to strengthen North American manufacturing and reduce reliance on overseas supply chains.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 15:20

Trump Dismisses Delaney Hall Protesters As 'Paid' Amid Growing Scrutiny Of ICE Detention Facility

Zero Hedge -

Trump Dismisses Delaney Hall Protesters As 'Paid' Amid Growing Scrutiny Of ICE Detention Facility

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has dismissed protesters outside a New Jersey immigration detention facility as “fake” and “paid for” as demonstrations intensified and Democratic lawmakers demanded investigations into conditions inside the center.

Video footage from the scene showed protesters clashing with ICE agents outside the Delaney Hall detention facility in Newark, New Jersey, on May 25 as tensions escalated over immigration enforcement.

Speaking during a Cabinet meeting on May 27, Trump praised federal immigration officials amid allegations of medical neglect and “perpetrating cruelty” against people.

“These aren’t protesters,” Trump said. “These people are fake. They’re all paid for.”

Trump also said Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials “run the finest facilities anywhere in the world of their type.”

The comments came after days of protests outside Delaney Hall, where detainees and family members accused officials of poor medical care and mistreatment inside the privately run immigration detention center.

The controversy escalated this week after Reps. Daniel Goldman (D-N.Y.) and Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) conducted an oversight visit at the Newark facility.

Nadler said in a May 27 post on X that what he observed inside the detention center was “deeply disturbing” and warranted further investigation.

“The medical neglect—denying people access to potentially life-saving care and withholding necessary medicine—is abhorrent,” Nadler wrote, calling for Delaney Hall to be closed immediately.

Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said he rushed to the facility on May 24 after hearing detainees had launched a hunger strike.

In a series of May 24 posts on X, Kim described seeing an 18-year-old high school student “crying and saying she just wanted to graduate senior year,” a pregnant woman allegedly unable to receive full obstetric care, and another woman who allegedly suffered a miscarriage while detained.

Kim said that the Trump administration and congressional Republicans are spending “tens of billions of dollars” on detention policies that he described as “perpetrating cruelty against people.”

Trump Administration Rejects Allegations

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) rejected accusations surrounding conditions inside Delaney Hall and said that Democratic politicians are spreading misinformation about the facility.

DHS said in a May 25 statement that detainees receive “3 meals a day, clean water, clothing, bedding, showers, soap, and toiletries.”

The agency also said detainees have access to phones, lawyers, and medical care, including dental and mental health services.

“For many illegal aliens, this is the best healthcare they have received their entire lives,” said Acting Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents stand near a gate at a detention centre in Newark, N.J., on May 7, 2025. Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images

She said the actions of those she described as “sanctuary politicians” were a political stunt for fundraising clicks.

“There is no hunger strike at Delaney Hall. There are no subprime conditions or abuse at the facility,” Bis said.

Kim alleged on May 24 that he had seen hunger strikes at the center.

Delaney Hall houses individuals accused or convicted of crimes, including murder, sexual assault, and drug trafficking, the DHS said.

“These types of smears are contributing to our officers facing a more than 1,300% increase in assaults against them as they remove the worst of the worst,” Bis said.

During the Cabinet meeting, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin criticized Democrats for protesting outside the facility.

“It shows the radical left Democrats’ priorities,” Mullin said, describing detainees as “rapists, child predators, murderers,” and drug dealers.

He also said that local police have refused to intervene during demonstrations.

Mullin also dismissed reports of a hunger strike, saying only a small number of detainees had refused food because they wanted meals tied to their ethnic preferences.

He said detainees were receiving adequate food, sanitation, and care, adding, “This isn’t Holiday Inn.”

Protests outside Delaney Hall have continued for days as immigration activists, community groups, and Democratic officials demand greater transparency over conditions inside the detention center.

Trump said protesters carried professionally produced signs.

“You can see by the signs,” Trump said during the Cabinet meeting. “The signs are all made by the same beautiful factory.”

Delaney Hall is owned and operated by private prison contractor GEO Group under a 15-year contract with ICE. The group announced the contract in February 2025.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 14:40

NANO Nuclear Demonstrates Key Supply Chain Role Covered By Recent Acquisition

Zero Hedge -

NANO Nuclear Demonstrates Key Supply Chain Role Covered By Recent Acquisition

NANO Nuclear Energy connected the dots on two stories we’ve been following closely. 

The company's recently acquired subsidiary, Secured Transportation Services (STS), served as prime logistics contractor for the largest single international HALEU shipment in NNSA history (1.7 metric tons) from Japan, plus support for removing 13.5 kilograms of highly enriched uranium from Venezuela’s dormant RV-1 research reactor.

NANO also notes they transported an additional shipment of HALEU for advanced reactor testing in the US. 

As we covered recently, the NNSA framed the Japan transfer as a landmark win for America’s advanced nuclear fuel supply and nonproliferation goals. The Venezuela operation eliminated a long-standing proliferation risk in the Western Hemisphere. Logistics details stayed quiet at the time.

NANO acquired STS for $13 million. The deal instantly converted the pre-revenue microreactor developer into a revenue-generating business. STS posted roughly $1.3 million in profits for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025. 

Today’s update revealed that STS was the lead operator behind those exact missions. The company handled international licensing, maritime transport, port operations, security planning, customs, and final overland delivery for the Japan campaign; the full scope of a record-setting effort. 

It also provided planning and U.S. domestic transfer support for the Venezuela HEU removal and executed another domestic HALEU run supporting fuel qualification programs.

This is real execution on the logistics side of the nuclear supply chain, one of the parts that has been painfully missing from America’s broader nuclear comeback.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 14:15

Federal Judge Given "Private Reprimand" After Holding Sexual Trysts In Chambers... And Then Lying About It

Zero Hedge -

Federal Judge Given "Private Reprimand" After Holding Sexual Trysts In Chambers... And Then Lying About It

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is a bizarre controversy out of the United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, where a federal judge has been reprimanded for engaging in repeated, loud sexual encounters during office hours in chambers with a police officer. While the judge lied to investigators and disrupted the work of court staff, the Eleventh Circuit decided to give only a “private reprimand” and to withhold the identity of the district court judge. However, legal sleuths have pieced together clues and identified one judge in Atlanta as the likely culprit.

In February, the Judicial Council issued an order with a “private reprimand.” The order contained an array of details that law professor John Blackman analyzed with impressive research. While he admits that he cannot conclusively prove that she is the referenced judge, he declared that “there is only one judge who checks all of those boxes: District Court Judge Eleanor Ross.”

Ironically, among the clues about the judge’s identity, the order mentions that the judge attended the “victory party for a District Attorney” in 2024, the night before “the judge’s summer interns’ first day.” The Georgia primary was on May 21, 2024, and the date coincides with the victory party for Fani Willis, who won the Democratic primary for Fulton County District Attorney. The irony would be crushing since Willis destroyed her own case against Trump and his associates after appointing an attorney with whom she had a sexual relationship.

Putting the judge’s identity aside, I am more concerned with the Circuit’s conclusion that the judge should be left with a private, anonymous reprimand, given the astonishing scope of the misconduct found by the Judicial Council.

The Court describes repeated sexual encounters during office hours that were so audible that clerks and staff were left in uncomfortable silence. The other individual is described as “a high-ranking PD officer.” The court states that

“It is also worth noting the fact that the Subject Judge created a vulnerability to extortion. For two years, the Subject Judge was a federal district judge who routinely heard criminal cases engaged in a secret extramarital relationship with a prominent officer of a large law enforcement agency in the judge’s district—with the affair consisting of sexual intercourse in the Subject Judge’s chambers during working hours.”

The Court describes the awkward moments as staff were subjected to moans and noises from the judge’s chambers as these trysts took place. The court recounts:

“The Subject Judge characterized the allegations as ‘outrageous’ and ‘baseless’ and specifically denied each one.11 Apparently aware that Law Clerk A was the source of the allegations, the Subject Judge noted that the judge had repeatedly chastised Law Clerk A for performance issues, including ‘being on [the clerk’s] cell phone in court and in the office,’ ‘arriving to the office late,’ and wearing attire that the judge considered ‘too casual.’ The Subject Judge implied that Law Clerk A might have made allegations as a means of retaliating against the Subject Judge.”

So this judge not only lied but attacked the clerk. The court order contained emails and communications in which the judge states that the clerk is disgruntled and unreliable. The result was an investigation as the judge continues to lie about the long-standing affair.

The other individual is described solely as a high-ranking police officer.

This is an extraordinary and serious series of ethical violations. It directly undermined the integrity of the court and created a dysfunctional work environment. The officer and the department are likely parties in cases before the court. The judge must be independent in dealing with officers and the department. The use of the chambers for sexual encounters must have created a hostile work environment for many clerks and staff.

Then there are the repeated lies to fellow judges and investigators. Lying to federal investigators can be a crime under 18 U.S.C. 1001, and such cases can come before this judge.

All of this leaves me baffled about the decision to enter a private reprimand. The judge agrees not to serve as Chief Judge or take positions on judicial committees. Yet the judge is allowed to continue to perform that most important function of being a judge. More importantly, counsel and parties are left without confirmation of the judge’s identity. There are myriad cases in which a judge could have a conflict of interest. Parties should be able to raise such conflicts rather than be left wondering if they have “that judge” in random assignments.

The use of court property for sexual liaisons with a police officer and then lying about it should warrant a bit more than an anonymous order, private reprimand, and a waiving of future positions. This judge, who has shown serious ethical concerns, will continue to render judgments on others.

If an officer had repeatedly lied to the court, would the contempt citation for the individual be anonymous with only voluntary waivers of future positions?

In the end, determining the identity of the judge is less challenging than the reasoning of the Judicial Council.

Here is the opinion: Eleventh Circuit Order

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 14:05

Florida Governor Calls For Special Session To Eliminate Property Tax For Homeowners

Zero Hedge -

Florida Governor Calls For Special Session To Eliminate Property Tax For Homeowners

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on May 27 called for a special legislative session to pass his plan to exempt homeowners from paying property taxes on their permanent residence.

The Republican governor revealed his plans to sign a proclamation that would require state lawmakers to convene in Tallahassee and discuss his “Save Our Homes” proposal starting on June 1.

“Taxing something that you own repeatedly, which is a property tax, is the worst way to do taxation,” DeSantis said in a news conference on May 27.

DeSantis said he hopes that eliminating taxes from Florida homesteads could be a bipartisan effort.

“You pay all these taxes to acquire that property, and then year after year, you’re just having to write a check just for the privilege of being able to maintain ownership of something that is supposedly yours,” he said.

The proposal contemplates phasing in the exemption and creating a state trust fund to compensate local governments for lost revenue. Because the measure would involve a change to the Florida Constitution, if it passes the state Senate and state House, which are both Republican-controlled, it would need to be approved by voters in November.

Property tax revenue collected by local governments in the Sunshine State has nearly doubled in seven years, to $60 billion from $32 billion, according to the governor’s office.

DeSantis wants to make local governments use property taxes only for core public needs such as public safety, education, infrastructure, and natural resources.

The proposal would require new Florida residents to maintain residency for up to five years before they can receive the homestead exemption.

The proclamation comes as the term-limited Republican nears the end of his term as governor, set for Jan. 5, 2027.

“I want to make sure people can go and vote for something, and then see something that’s going to be very, very meaningful in their lives, and the way to do that is to focus on the homestead property owners,” he said.

Florida House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell warned that eliminating property taxes would have “devastating consequences” for county budgets.

“We’re open to solutions that create affordability but not at the expense of working families, our small businesses and local governments who rely on property taxes to repair roads, provide public safety through law enforcement and police department and fire to maintain beautiful parks and support our schools and so much more,” she said.

Driskell suggested that the governor’s focus on eliminating property taxes was a “distraction” from the state’s skyrocketing property insurance rates, as well as grocery and gas prices.

The Miami-Dade Democratic Party previously warned in November 2025 that eliminating homestead property taxes could cause budget shortfalls, which could result in local governments raising the sales tax to make up for lost funds.

By contrast, the proposal was welcomed by state Sen. Ben Albritton, a Republican, who urged his peers to act quickly.

“All Senators are encouraged to watch this meeting and to be prepared for the Floor on Tuesday and, if necessary, Wednesday,” Albritton wrote in a memorandum on May 27.

The Epoch Times contacted the Florida Senate Democratic Caucus for comment but did not hear back by time of publication.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 13:30

Stellar 7 Year Auction Sees 3rd Highest Foreign Award On Record

Zero Hedge -

Stellar 7 Year Auction Sees 3rd Highest Foreign Award On Record

In the week's final coupon auction, the US Treasury sold $44 billion in 7 Year notes to stellar demand. 

Extending on the strength yesterday's solid (if tailing) 5 Year auction, today's 7 Year sale printed at a high yield of 4.290%, up from 4.175% and the highest since Jan 2025. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.291% by 0.1bps, the first stop through since December 2025.

The bid to cover was 2.518, up from 2.513 and the highest since July 2025; it was obviously higher than the six-auction average of 2.478.

The internals were stellar, with Indirects surging from April's los 58.35% to a stunning 78.39%, the 3rd highest indirect award on record!

Naturally, for Indirects to soar this much, one of the other two categories had to drop, and sure enough Directs plunged from 30.01% to 11.19%, the lowest since December 2024. Dealers were left largely unchanged at 10.42%, down from 11.64%.

Overall, this was a fitting close to a solid week for Treasury auctions, as today's 7Y auction was an absolutely blockbuster, with all metrics stronger but it was the surge in foreign demand that was the showstopper. It appears that EMs are no longer dumping US paper - which they did in record mounts in March and April - to fund oil purchases and to prevent their currencies from crashing. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 13:22

EU Wants Crisis Powers To Seize Control Of Chip Supplies, Seeks Restrictions On Chinese Imports

Zero Hedge -

EU Wants Crisis Powers To Seize Control Of Chip Supplies, Seeks Restrictions On Chinese Imports

The EU - which is badly lagging the rest of the world when it comes to AI development - is preparing sweeping emergency powers to intervene in Europe’s semiconductor supply chains during shortages, including by forcing chipmakers to override existing contracts, the FT reported. So much for the sanctity of those "contract-backed" backlogs... 

The draft law also enables common purchasing to boost the bloc’s negotiating power, and would mark a clear expansion of the EU’s powers to intervene directly in industrial supply chains.

Amid tensions between Beijing and Washington, there are growing fears in Europe that semiconductors can become a tool of economic coercion, heightened by European reliance on Taiwan for high-performance chips.

The clearest example of Europe's heavy hand was laid bare last year when the Dutch government took control of chipmaker Nexperia from its Chinese owner over concerns that it was moving production and assets out of Europe. The flow of chips from Nexperia’s China arm slowed dramatically, forcing some European car companies to reduce production.

The Dutch government last year took control of chipmaker Nexperia from its Chinese owner over concerns it was moving production out of Europe

The draft law, which is still subject to change ahead of its expected publication next week, would allow the European Commission far-reaching powers in the event of semiconductor shortages that threaten supplies of weapons, medical devices, digital infrastructure and other key categories of goods. In such a crisis, the Commission could impose fines of up to €300,000 on companies that fail to provide requested information on their supply-chain capacity. It could also “force semiconductor manufacturers to prioritize orders for crisis-critical products, overriding existing contracts”, the draft reads.

Brussels could also enable common purchasing to “strengthen negotiating power and prevent competition between EU countries for limited supplies”. The Commission would then act as a central buyer for multiple EU countries, as it did to acquire vaccines during the pandemic.

According to the FT, the so-called Chips Act forms part of a wider push from the bloc to reduce its dependence on US technology by backing European alternatives in sectors from semiconductors and cloud computing to AI. In the document, Brussels acknowledges that the bloc is “almost entirely dependent on the US and Asia” for the most advanced chips.

Semiconductor supply chains are vast and complex, with a typical Nvidia system tapping thousands of suppliers in dozens of countries. And yet, the EU currently produces less than 10% of global semiconductors. Earlier plans to double the EU’s global market share in semiconductors by 2030 are far behind schedule.

The bloc, like the rest of the world, is overwhelmingly dependent on Taiwan for its supply of high-performance chips, with the home of semiconductor company TSMC accounting for more than 90 per cent of leading-edge chip manufacturing. China has made repeated threats to use force against Taiwan if Taipei continues to resist its sovereignty claims. Any conflict in the region could cause global shortages of components critical to electronics from smartphones and AI data centres to cars and medical gear. 

Separately, the Guardian reports that EU commissioners will meet on Friday for talks aimed at imposing new restrictions on imports from China amid growing concern that Beijing is fuelling conditions for US-style rust belt towns in Europe.

The surge in imports of everything from electric cars to key components in machines, medical devices and food stuffs - which many including us warned long ago would lead to collapsing European domestic production as Chinese exports are dumped in European markets and overwhelm local producers - has been dubbed China Shock 2.0, potentially mirroring the experience in the US 25 years ago when Beijing joined the World Trade Organization.

Ironically, it was the Trump administration which warned that Europe's attempts to offset US sanctions by overreliance on China, would lead to just this outcome. Well, Europe is now there. 

Commissioners representing each member state have been asked to bring examples of Chinese activities in all 27 portfolios, spanning trade to agriculture, defence, health and digital initiatives to the talks. While no decisions would be taken on Friday but the talks would help “align” the commission’s thinking and address overproduction in China, which is leading imports into the EU to be sometimes up to 40% cheaper than local products.

It will also feed into the next leaders summit on 18 June when China will be one of the handful of items on the agenda.

Ignacio García Bercero, a senior fellow at the Brussels thinktank Bruegel and a former official at the European Commission’s trade department, said the EU needed to formulate “a clearer strategy about how to deal with China”.

He said quotas and tariff rate quotas could be introduced on Chinese goods, as they were safeguards that were much faster to implement than tariffs and could focus on areas that China is targeting, such as hybrid cars and chemical components.

“I think that sometimes there’s a little bit of a tendency to sound very tough, but then not to act tough, and I don’t think that is a clever way to handle things.”

He said while showing it was prepared to act, the EU must also engage with China.

“The US has an engagement with China, Canada has an engagement with China. Everyone is having an engagement with China. I think in my view … we need to find a way to make sure that we are properly respected by China when we have that engagement.”

Earlier this month industry leaders told the Guardian of fears that EU factories would cannabilise themselves through their reliance on Chinese components, an issue which rarely makes the headlines.

Longer term, the EU could also look to a slew of laws: its never used anti-coercion instrument; legislation such as the cybersecurity act 2.0 that could stop procurement of certain Chinese products and the industrial accelerator act commonly known as the “made in EU” law.

Grzegorz Stec, the head of the Brussels office of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), said China has not set out to destroy European business but it is potentially the consequence of its steeling focus of the survival of its own industries now, and into a post-AI world future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 13:00

DOJ Urges Supreme Court To Take Up Case That Could Lead To Pre-Election Voter Roll Cleanups

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Urges Supreme Court To Take Up Case That Could Lead To Pre-Election Voter Roll Cleanups

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to hear a case that could determine whether states are allowed to remove noncitizens from their voter rolls in the 90 days leading up to an election.

In the case, the DOJ argues that the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993 does not prevent states from taking noncitizens off voter rolls before elections.

The National Voter Registration Act is also known as the Motor-Voter law because it allows people to register to vote with relative ease at motor vehicle agencies and government offices. The NVRA requires states to make a reasonable effort to remove ineligible individuals’ names from voter rolls, but a federal appeals court ruled that names cannot be removed in the 90 days before an election.

The DOJ made its argument on May 26 in a brief urging the high court to grant the petition in Republican National Committee (RNC) v. Mi Familia Vota.

If the Supreme Court grants the RNC’s petition, states may be allowed to purge voter rolls close to elections.

Arizona law allows only U.S. citizens to vote in federal elections. It requires people registering to vote to produce documentary proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate, or naturalization papers. It also allows the names of noncitizens to be removed from voter rolls.

If election officials procure “information” from periodic inspections of the state’s voter rolls that confirm a “person registered is not a United States citizen,” they “cancel the registration,” according to the brief.

A 2018 consent decree, reached as part of a court-enforced settlement from a previous lawsuit, required the state to register applicants who lack proof of citizenship as “federal-only” voters who could participate in federal elections but not state or local elections. A consent decree is a legally binding court-enforced settlement made with the consent of the litigants.

Mi Familia Vota and other groups sued, alleging that the Arizona law violates the NVRA and the consent decree.

A federal district court ruled mostly for the plaintiffs, issuing an injunction that blocked certain parts of the state law, including the proof of citizenship requirement, the brief said.

The Supreme Court in August 2024 issued a partial stay of the district court order that allowed Arizona to continue to enforce its proof of citizenship requirement when voters register using state forms.

In February 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld the injunction, finding that the consent decree blocks the proof of citizenship requirement and that the NVRA preempts, or supersedes, the requirement—among other things. The appeals court also blocked the removal of names from the voter rolls in the 90-day run-up to an election, a practice it said the NVRA already forbids, according to the brief.

The Supreme Court’s partial stay prevails over the Ninth Circuit’s block of the proof of citizenship requirement. The high court’s stay will remain in effect until the circuit court disposes of the appeal, or the Supreme Court issues a final decision or denies the RNC’s petition for review.

Does Not Apply to Noncitizens: DOJ

The DOJ argues in its brief that the NVRA’s restrictions on taking individuals’ names off the list of eligible voters in the 90 days preceding an election “do not apply to noncitizens who were never eligible to register in the first place.”

The Ninth Circuit’s ruling to the contrary is “badly mistaken,” deepens a split among federal courts of appeals, and “risks significant harm,” said Hashim Mooppan, filing as acting U.S. solicitor general for the purposes of this case. Solicitor General D. John Sauer himself is recused in the case.

Using the reasoning of the Ninth Circuit, “a State could never remove a noncitizen from its voter rolls once registered,” he said.

“That cannot be correct and cries out for reversal,” Mooppan said, urging the Supreme Court to grant the RNC’s petition.

Although the current federal voter registration form requires only that applicants attest that they are citizens, the NVRA gives states the flexibility to mandate that applicants supply documentary proof of citizenship when using state voter registration forms, he said.

Mooppan said the Supreme Court in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona Inc. (2013) gave Arizona’s prior proof of citizenship requirement as an “example” of the rule that “state-developed forms may require information the Federal Form does not.”

The Ninth Circuit’s decision “cannot be reconciled” with this precedent, and the majority on the circuit panel “did not even try,” he said.

The RNC’s petition “presents both of these questions and provides a good vehicle to address them,” Mooppan said.

It is unclear when the Supreme Court will consider the petition.

The Epoch Times contacted the RNC’s attorney, Gilbert Dickey of Consovoy McCarthy in Arlington, Virginia, and Mi Familia Vota’s attorney, David Fox of Elias Law Group in Washington, for comment. No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 12:45

Consumer Isn't Dead Yet: US Retail Stocks Surge As Resilient Shoppers Surprise Markets

Zero Hedge -

Consumer Isn't Dead Yet: US Retail Stocks Surge As Resilient Shoppers Surprise Markets

The S&P Retail Select Industry Index rose more than 1% Thursday morning as shares of Kohl's, Best Buy, and Dollar Tree surged on better-than-expected earnings results. Results suggest the U.S. consumer was stronger than feared in the prior quarter, even as households were battered by a fuel-price shock at the pump, persistent inflation, and softening confidence, which has led to them draining what little savings they have left.

As Bloomberg notes, the three chains operate in very different parts of the retail sector, yet all surprised investors to the upside in a sign of strength by US consumers who are facing multiple hurdles. Here are the earnings highlights from this morning:

  • Kohl's comparable sales declined 1.1%, beating the estimated decline of 1.71%
  • Best Buy reported first-quarter sales of $8.9 billion, beating analyst estimates, with comparable sales rising 2%
  • Dollar Tree boosted comparable sales 3.5% in the first quarter, topping estimates, driven by a 4.5% gain in average transaction

The result was a surge in their respective stock prices: 

With gas prices soaring since the start of the war in Iran, and workers worried about the impact of artificial intelligence amid still elevated inflation, consumer confidence has collapsed. And yet, Americans are still opening their wallets. US data released Thursday showed that consumer spending edged up in April despite accelerated price increases. In fact, spending growth is now drastically outpacing income growth, in a trend that is certainly unsustainable and the only buffer - personal savings - is rapidly being depleted.

At Kohl’s, stronger-than-expected sales boosted the department-store chain’s turnaround. Electronics seller Best Buy said revenue across major categories gained and this month was off to a strong start. Dollar Tree highlighted that customers spent more per transaction.

“Across all income levels, customers are value focused and definitely prioritizing affordability,” Dollar Tree CEO Creedon said on the earnings call.

Shares of all three retailers jumped on Thursday. Kohl’s soared 25%, followed by Dollar Tree with a 16% advance and Best Buy at a roughly 8% gain.

Despite these results, retailers and consumer brands have been saying throughout this earnings season that there is plenty to worry about. S&P Retail Select Industry Index has been range bound since mid-2025. 

Last week, big-box retailers including Target and Walmart signaled that shoppers remain resilient despite years of elevated inflation. But higher prices on essentials like groceries and gas have squeezed shoppers’ discretionary budgets, pushing them to trade down to cheaper brands and cut back on less essential purchases. Earlier, new personal savings rate data showed that Americans are frantically digging into their savings to keep up with inflation.

Earlier this month, Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said lower-income Americans were “literally running out of money at the end of the month” because of higher costs, especially gasoline. 

At Dollar Tree, its lower-income customers are visiting less because of their pressured finances, wrote Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, in a note to clients. The retailer boosted comparable-store sales last quarter 3.5%, but that growth came from a gain in shoppers spending more on each transaction as the number of purchases fell 1%. 

“The trips they’ve cut out are those of a more discretionary nature which, on some level, is pleasing because they’re still using Dollar Tree for essentials,” Saunders said. 

Meanwhile, Burlington Stores shares tumbled 14%, the most since May 2022, despite beating Bloomberg Consensus estimates.

Some chains have kept prices low amid their own rising costs to maintain market share. But it’s not clear how long they can maintaining that strategy. Walmart warned last week that if fuel prices stay at current levels, prices across the board could rise throughout the year.

While wealthier shoppers have been the driving force behind the US consumer economy for some time, even they are feeling pressure and increasingly trading down to cheaper options. Dollar Tree and other low-priced chains have been courting higher-income shoppers, often with great success. That’s a good outcome for these retailers, but raises doubts about the sustainability of these spending levels.

US consumer confidence edged down this month amid anxiety over the economy, according to the Conference Board. Two-thirds of shoppers reported cutting back on spending due rising prices, with many respondents saying they are delaying expensive purchases and buying cheaper versions of the same item.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 12:30

'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws, Another Huge SPR Drain

Zero Hedge -

'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws, Another Huge SPR Drain

Oil prices bounced higher overnight after the US and Iran exchanged new strikes despite their purported ceasefire, rekindling uncertainty about an end to the Middle East war.

The latest strikes were the most serious since an April ceasefire, and came despite a series of headlines suggesting talks on a deal were progressing.

"A fresh exchange of strikes between the two countries is testing the fragile ceasefire and forcing a reassessment of the chances of a near-term agreement which can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dial down the pressure the crisis is putting on the global economy," said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

But then, around 1000ET, Axios reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

That sent oil prices reeling lower...

With the geopolitical headlines so dominant, this morning's official US crude inventory and supply data is taking a back seat to Washington and Tehran again (despite some chunky draws reported by API overnight).

API

  • Crude -2.8mm

  • Cushing -2.9mm

  • Gasoline -3.19mm

  • Distillates +1.1mm

DOE

  • Crude -3.33mm (-3.2mm exp)

  • Cushing -2.79mm - biggest draw since Aug 2023

  • Gasoline -2.57mm

  • Distillates -2.11mm

Inventories saw across the board drawdowns with Cushing standing out. Distillate draws returned as gasoline stocks fell for the 15th straight week

Source: Bloomberg

'Tank Bottoms' loom as inventory at Cushing is the lowest for this time of year since 2014...

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another major drawdown (over 9mm barrels)...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production ticked higher as rig counts are rising rapidly...

Source: Bloomberg

The market has backed away from believing the Axios report (after a denial from Iranian news) and the big draw is helping WTI recover...

"The bigger picture is that crude is still on course for a second weekly decline, suggesting investors are not yet pricing in a worst-case disruption," Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman said.

"For now, the market looks caught between short-term nerves over renewed hostilities and a lingering hope that both sides still have enough incentive to get energy flows moving," he added.

Investment strategist Ed Yardeni wrote in an overnight note that "oil markets will be in dire straits" if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon. He sketched out looming crisis points that have turned the U.S.-Iran negotiation into the "ultimate game of chicken."

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports means the country's oil industry is producing too much and storage capacity is quickly filling. Yardeni concludes that Iran has until mid- or late June before storage is maxed out, forcing a sharp cut in production to domestic consumption levels. "The toll on Iran's oil industry and its broader economy is certainly one of President Trump's best negotiating cards," he wrote.

Yardeni further notes that oil inventories in Asia are already approaching minimum levels, meaning the war-driven dearth of oil imports will soon lead to shortages.

Europe faces the same situation, possibly by late June.

Yardeni highlighted International Energy Agency Director Faith Birol's warning that depleted stocks and high usage during the summer travel season could push global oil markets into "the red zone in July or August."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 12:09

Masters in Business Top 25

The Big Picture -

 

Doing the tour to promote How NOT to Invest (paperback out now!) I got lots of interesting questions — about the book, my writing process, my investing philosophy, and my career.

The one (really two) questions that I was not prepared for had to do with the podcast:

Who was your favorite guest(s) on MiB?” and/or “What was your favorite episode?”

These are actually two different questions — who I enjoyed meeting/chatting with is a different issue from which episode was the most informative and interesting conversation.

I would spout off an answer from the most fun recent episode I could recall off the top of my mind.  But I really should have a better answer than that . . .  so I sat down and thought about it, combining the two questions into one. The result was a list of 25ish shows (out of ~650) that were both memorable, informative, surprising, and fun.

All of these were fun, and have an interesting story around them — either how the guest joined me, or what else was going on that made these unique or special, presented in no particular order:

 

Bill Gross, PIMCO
Danny Kahneman, BeFi (Nobel)
Cliff Asness, AQR
Howard Marks, Oaktree
Ray Dalio, Bridewater

Jim Chanos, Kynikos (Short seller)
Michael Lewis Author
Jack Bogle, Vanguard
Bill McNabb, Vanguard
David Rubenstein, Carlyle

Marc Andreesen, A26Z
Richard Barton (Microsoft/Expedia/Zillow/Glassdoor)
Bill Gurley, Benchmark
Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab
Jenny Johnson, Franklyn Templeton
Toto Wolff, F1 Mercedes

David Einhorn, Greenlight
Brooke Lampey, Sotheby’s
Joel Tillinghast, Fidelity
Will Danoff, Fidelity
Ken Feinberg, Special Master

Scott Galloway, NYU
Richard Thaler BeFi (Nobel)
Bill Sharpe  (Nobel)
Eugene Fama  (Nobel)
David Risher (CEO Lyft)
Lawrence Juber, Guitarist
John Pizzarelli, Guitarist

 

You should definitely check out any of these you may have missed…

 

 

The post Masters in Business Top 25 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bank Of Canada Warns Markets More Vulnerable To Sharp Correction Due To AI Concentration, Basis Trades

Zero Hedge -

Bank Of Canada Warns Markets More Vulnerable To Sharp Correction Due To AI Concentration, Basis Trades

The Bank of Canada said the global financial system has functioned (surprisingly) well through recent global shocks, but underscored the risk of a sharp asset price correction as well as vulnerabilities related to the role hedge funds are playing in debt markets.

The central bank’s 2026 financial stability report released Thursday noted financial asset valuations have continued to rise, while the stock market is increasingly concentrated in a handful of large tech companies that are heavily invested in artificial intelligence. That makes asset managers more vulnerable to a sudden correction, and a negative shock to AI sectors would have an outsized impact on broader stock indexes.

The central bank also reminded markets that the risk of basis trades remains front and center, warning that the increased role of hedge funds in overnight funding markets poses a vulnerability to the overall financial system, Bloomberg reported.

“A sharp pullback in hedge fund activity in government debt markets, for example, could negatively affect the liquidity and functioning of these markets and other fixed income markets. This, in turn, could generate financial system stress,” the report said.

While senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said individually, these vulnerabilities look “manageable", he added that “the economic and geopolitical environment has become more volatile. And this has made it more likely that a new shock or a combination of shocks could cause several vulnerabilities to crystallize at once."

The report analyzes risks to the Canadian financial system, but doesn’t assign probability and isn’t a projection from the central bank.

Meanwhile for households and businesses, the bank said the main financial health vulnerability relates to a geopolitical or economic shock that leads to a deep recession and a spike in unemployment. While the central bank previously flagged mortgage renewals as a concern, it noted on Thursday that most borrowers have managed this risk well.

“With the final wave of these renewals set to happen over the next 12 months, we expect this risk to have fully passed by the second half of 2027,” Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said.

While the ratio of household debt to disposable income has increased slightly over the past year, the central bank noted households appear better off when wealth is taken to account.

It attributes that improvement to higher home prices over time, but noted the recent increase in net worth has been driven by gains in financial markets as the housing market softened.

As for Canada’s big banks, the report says they have become more resilient over the past year amid higher profitability and healthy capital buffers.

“They have also set aside additional funds to absorb potential loan losses. This positions them to support the economy and financial system, even in a severe downturn,” Gravelle said.

The report cautioned that in the stress‑test scenario, as unemployment rises and housing prices fall, households and businesses come under significant stress. Rates of mortgage arrears increase and reach a multi‑decade high. Businesses face increased costs and a decline in demand, which pushes corporate default rates close to levels seen during the global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the aggressive use of repo markets has further increased their importance in Canada’s financial system. More than $130 billion in repo transactions now take place in Canada each day, about double the amount from five years ago. A wide range of market participants use repos to obtain leverage, borrow and lend securities, earn returns on extra cash and manage funding liquidity.

The report cautioned that repo activity is rising in part because more Government of Canada bonds are being issued and traded.

Repos are a flexible and cost‑effective way to finance trading in government bonds and therefore play an important role in facilitating dealers’ market‑making activities. They also allow hedge funds to finance their activities, including basis trades in government bonds and futures. These activities, in turn, support liquidity and efficiency in the markets for government securities.

Government bonds are widely used as collateral and liquid assets to manage risks. They are also used as pricing benchmarks for other securities. Because of this, a disruption in repo markets would have broad implications for the financial system. These include:

  • A sudden deleveraging by asset managers. For example, if hedge funds or other asset managers cannot obtain repo funding, they may need to quickly sell government bonds, further reducing market liquidity.
  • A reduction in overall market liquidity. Wider bid‑ask spreads and higher trading costs in government bond markets could spill over into other fixed‑income and derivative markets. If this led to significant margin calls, it could result in a liquidity spiral as market participants are forced to sell liquid assets to raise cash.
  • Sharp movements in the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA). This would affect the large numbers of financial instruments that use CORRA as a risk‑free rate, such as interest rate derivatives and floating rate notes.

The report concludes that if any of these situations were to occur, "borrowing costs across the economy would go up, leading to potential second‑round effects."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 12:00

Bessent Warns Oman On Hormuz Toll Scheme, After Trump Threatened To 'Blow Up' US Ally

Zero Hedge -

Bessent Warns Oman On Hormuz Toll Scheme, After Trump Threatened To 'Blow Up' US Ally

On an official level at least, Oman remains a close strategic partner and key ally of the United States in the Middle East; however, that relationship has been severely strained this month amid apparent Iranian-Omani cooperation regarding a potential toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. This of course flies in the face of the US posture in the region.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the latest top Trump admin official to chastize Oman: "The United States Government will not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz," he said on X Thursday.

"Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," Bessent continued. "All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over."

Sky News/Getty Images

Starting a week ago, official 'discussions' between Oman and Iran were widely reported:

Iran and Oman have discussed setting up a toll system to charge vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, despite President Trump’s condemnation of charging fees to pass through the waterway.

“Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner,” Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin-Nejad on Wednesday told Bloomberg News, which first reported the talks.

Given the country's geography, in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula, it is likely to play a key role in any final agreement or outcome, in terms of opening Hormuz back up to international maritime transit.

Bessent is continuing the pressure campaign soon on the heels of President Trump in somewhat shocking and surprise remarks saying that Oman could come under American military attack if it doesn't cooperate.

Trump said in the Oval and in front of cameras that the US would "blow up" Oman if it doesn’t "behave". The serious threat was issued in response to a reporter's question on whether the US would accept a short-term deal that involved Iran and Oman jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

"No, the strait’s got to be opened to everybody, it’s international waters. Nobody’s going to control it. We'll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation," Trump told reporters during a cabinet meeting.

"Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that they’ll be fine," the president then emphasized.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei sought to explain earlier this week: "There is no toll. We need to pay attention to the words we use. We’re not after money. Iran and Oman need to create protocols for the safe passage of ships, and this will be based on international laws."

But then came the catch: "It’s only natural that the services we provide, like navigation and the preservation of the ecosystem of the Strait, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will have costs. These should not be considered tolls. Iran and Oman are being responsible in our efforts and I hope we will reach a conclusion soon," the spokesman said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 11:40

Newsom Vows 100% Tax On Trump "Anti-Weaponization Fund" Payouts

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Vows 100% Tax On Trump "Anti-Weaponization Fund" Payouts

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that his administration will seek to impose a 100 percent tax on any California residents who receive money from President Donald Trump's newly created $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" fund.

Speaking to reporters, Newsom denounced the fund as a "slush fund" and pledged to block Californians from financially benefiting from it.

"Anyone from California that receives any of those funds, we want to tax 100 percent of those proceeds," Newsom said during a press conference.

"He pardoned all of those folks that were beating up cops and absolved them, providing them 1.776 billion dollars," Newsom said. "So not only do you get a pardon, you get rewarded. That's why this is needed."

The fund was established as part of Trump's settlement with the Department of Justice stemming from his lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns.

Trump has described the program as restitution for Americans harmed by what he called politically motivated government actions during the Biden administration.

Last week, Trump defended the fund as compensation for people "badly abused by an evil, corrupt, and weaponized Biden Administration."

Democrats in several blue states are now attempting to block recipients from keeping any payouts tied to the program.

In New York, Democratic Assemblyman Alex Bores introduced legislation that would similarly impose a 100 percent tax on recipients of the fund.

State Sen. Mike Gianaris said Democrats in Albany are pushing to advance the measure before the legislative session ends next week.

"There's widespread, bipartisan agreement that this is baldfaced corruption at its worst and if we have the ability in New York to combat it by ensuring that none of this money benefits anyone in our state's borders, I'd expect there'd be widespread support for that idea," Gianaris said.

Democratic lawmakers in New Jersey are also drafting similar legislation.

State Sen. Andrew Zwicker called the proposal "a brilliant counter move to Trump's corruption."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 11:20

Oklo COO Says Nuclear Waste Could Power America For 150 Years

Zero Hedge -

Oklo COO Says Nuclear Waste Could Power America For 150 Years

Earlier this week, we covered Oklo’s approval by Chris Wright’s DOE to convert plutonium previously set for disposal into new fuel. “Fuel supply constraints are a key throttle to advanced reactor development,” Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said following the announcement. 

Jacob’s wife and Oklo’s COO Caroline DeWitte joined ZeroHedge and Radiant Energy Group’s Madison Hilly. Caroline laid out Oklo’s ambitious vision: recycle spent nuclear fuel, build fleets of reactors for AI hyperscalers like Meta, and turn what the industry currently treats as a liability (nuclear waste) into a strategic asset.

And unlike many of the “PowerPoint reactor” startups flooding the space, she says they are already building.

Nuclear Waste And A New Energy Order

One of the company’s core theses is that the U.S. is sitting on a massive untapped energy reserve in the form of spent nuclear fuel already stockpiled around the country.

“It has enough energy in it to power the entire country for 150 years. So let’s use it.”

Unlike conventional light-water reactors, Oklo’s fast reactors are designed to utilize fuel currently treated as waste, potentially bypassing future uranium bottlenecks while lowering long-term fuel costs.

The company is also pushing aggressively into isotope production, a market DeWitte suggested remains critically undersupplied after years of Western dependence on Russian supply chains.

“Some of these isotopes… if you had a kilogram, it might be a trillion dollars.”

Oklo is now racing to bring an isotope test reactor online in Texas and DeWitte says they hope to hit criticality around July 4th.

Silicon Valley’s AI Boom Fast-Tracking Nuclear Energy

The AI infrastructure arms race has abruptly transformed advanced nuclear energy from a niche policy idea into a strategic national priority.

DeWitte said the current policy environment, under Trump’s energy secretary Chris Wright, has dramatically accelerated Oklo’s deployment timelines.

“It’s been a world of difference since about a year ago.”

According to DeWitte, working through a Department of Energy partnership framework allowed Oklo to begin construction activities roughly two years earlier than would have been possible under the traditional Nuclear Regulatory Commission process. And Oklo currently has six DOE projects underway.

The company’s recent deal with Meta highlights where much of the demand is coming from: hyperscale AI infrastructure desperate for reliable baseload electricity.

“Everyone needs as much as they can get as soon as they can get it.”

Public sentiment around nuclear power appears to be shifting as communities increasingly resist giant AI server farms.

“Is there going to be a data center in my backyard?... Oh no, no, no, just a nuclear power plant. And they’re like, ‘Oh, good.’”

Check out the full interview below or listen on our Spotify.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 11:05

Remarkable Turns Of Events

Zero Hedge -

Remarkable Turns Of Events

By Michael Every of Rabobank

It’s remarkable screen oil prices are little changed at below $100 today after Trump said the US is “not satisfied” over talks with Iran, days after claiming a deal was imminent, and hours after saying the terms the Iranians had leaked that the US agrees to --a real TACO-- were a “complete fabrication.”

It’s more remarkable when Trump added Iran and Oman will not control the Strait of Hormuz, which they say they will; vowed to blow up Oman if it misbehaves; struck Iran again in another “defensive action”; and reiterated a deal requires the region to sign up to the Abraham Accords, underlining it has to be a turning point to a new geopolitical/economic architecture.

It’s truly remarkable given Trump added he can outwait Iran and dismissed the growing economic impact of this crisis and the looming midterm elections; and that Israel ordered the mass forced displacement for all the population of south Lebanon as the IDF-Hezbollah conflict intensifies, destroying terror infrastructure across thousands of civilian homes.

Meanwhile, another think tank report argues US munitions depleted by the Iran war will take until 2030 or 2031 to restore. That leaves a global shortfall already being felt in Europe and Asia and requiring them to develop their own systems, and supply chains, at very high cost – and it will require the kind of ‘reverse perestroika’ change to the US political-economy previously discussed for it to overcome that bottleneck more rapidly.

Relatedly, the UK claims half a million Russians are dead in the war, as a senior Ukrainian commander claims a 'turning point' in its favor, but Zelenskyy asked Trump for immediate air defence support that might not be available. On the other side, Russia is tasking bankers with shooting down Ukrainian drones. The grimness of war aside, and in the best Russian black-humour tradition, the latter brings to mind the joke about three econometricians shooting at a target, one 20 feet to the left, one 20 feet to the right, and the third crying, “I hit it!” without firing.

Brussels now has a timetable for Ukraine's and Moldova’s EU bids, which should be made public mid-June, as Albania says it will accept membership with a probation on vetoes as it is the “EU Taliban” in its fanaticism about joining. The former move will only increase EU-Russia tensions, as another ex-Soviet republic, Armenia, signs a strategic partnership deal with the US.

Elsewhere, India-Pakistan border tensions simmer; Japan welcomed the Philippines’ President Marcos as their defence ties deepen; China says it drove away a Dutch warship near the Paracel Islands; and US Secretary of War Hegseth is heading to Asia ‘with Taiwan questions swirling.’

In related geoeconomics, the ECB warned of a financial crisis triggered by the Iran war impact; a ‘plastic shock' is hitting Asia; Central Asia could turn to China over water security fears; and China and Cuba are holding agriculture talks as Beijing backs it against US pressure.

The US Trade Representative just stated, “We've just come to terms with the fact that there is not going to be some giant comprehensive reform of the way the Chinese political system works.” US policy will adapt accordingly. France said it may accept 'Made in Europe’ subsidies for UK cars; an EU wind turbine maker called non-western rivals ‘a security threat’; and it’s argued Germany can’t tariff China as its so reliant on inputs from it; as US tariffs and slumping EV sales are reportedly crippling the Canadian auto sector, with the local press asking if it will survive.

In technology, Nvidia chief Huang is to join a Tim Cook-chaired board at a prestigious Beijing university as the Chinese press share that their scientists claim AI is massively increasing China’s new weapon development speed – as it is in the US, of course, but not in those who don’t have that AI muscle.

In politics, what were once unthinkable Overton outcomes are becoming normal and so is political turmoil. New York lawmakers just passed a billionaire’s pied-a-terre tax; Australia is pressing ahead with its new property and capital gains taxes; Britain faces a ‘lost generation’ as youth worklessness heads for 1.25 million, claims one paper - as former PM Blair attacks current Labour PM Starmer and the pretender Andy Burns for a lack of vision; indeed, the Financial Times argues the UK has ironically become a European country since Brexit in that it now has high public debt and permanent political instability; and, in Europe, a police raid on the party headquarters of Spanish PM Sanchez, whose wife is already charged with corruption, has increased the pressure on him.

In markets, as oil --so everything else-- clutches at favoured straws, the FT has another op-ed which argues, ‘Want to predict central banker behaviour? Look to their birth date’, because “Formative experiences shape our views on future inflation as much as the data.” If so, what will the deeply dissatisfied youth growing up with the background described above take as normal regarding inflation and monetary policy?

Will they think in the same way those born when “I can’t get no satisfaction” was written, and look to technocratic econometrics as the answer to their multifaceted geopolitical and socio-economic problems? The election of Mamdani in New York, and of right and left populism globally, suggests not. Also note a 2025 YouGov poll showed a quarter of self-described US ‘very liberals’ say political violence is sometimes justified to achieve desired outcomes - as Luigi Mangione, on trial for murdering a US health executive, is as a social-media icon. Hikes followed by cuts can take on an entirely new meaning in that kind of socio-political context.

Of course, technocrats can clutch at straws, and at more technocracy, too. The Australian press this week saw a Rolling Stones-era author make a decent historical argument that immigration policy shouldn’t be politicized, and is complex, so “Perhaps it's time to consider relieving politicians of responsibility for it, just as they were relieved of monetary policy 30 years ago.” The Overton window looks so over!

But for now, it’s what is and isn’t over the Middle East that’s the primary focus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 10:45

Chinese Navy Pushes Dutch Frigate From Claimed Waters Via Electronic Warfare

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Navy Pushes Dutch Frigate From Claimed Waters Via Electronic Warfare

The Netherlands has become the latest Western nation to tangle with Beijing and exchange tense words after testing its sweeping claims to the South China Sea.

A tense military encounter unfolded involving a Dutch warship, identified as the HNLMS De Ruyter, after it had entered waters near the disputed Paracel Islands. China's military reportedly used electronic warfare measures to force it out of the China-claimed waters in the incident on Wednesday.

source: Defensie.nl

Chinese military spokesperson Zhai Shichen later charged that the Dutch ship violated "China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime and air security," while further alleging that the ship illicitly launched multiple helicopter sorties and entered Chinese airspace.

"The Dutch side’s actions…seriously undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea and could easily lead to misunderstanding and miscalculation," Zhai said.

"We firmly oppose such acts and solemnly demand that the Dutch side immediately cease its infringement and provocative actions. The Chinese military will maintain a high state of alert at all times and resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty, security and regional peace and stability," the PLA statement added.

However, the Netherlands has rejected this account, instead saying "the frigate has not been in territorial waters" and "operates in accordance with international law," according to the words Dutch navy spokesperson Marinka Hiraldo Vos-van Kooten.

USNI News details the Dutch frigate's mission as follows:

The Royal Netherlands Navy De Zeven Provinciën-class frigate is deployed to the Indo-Pacific for Amsterdam’s five-month-long Pacific Archer mission. The mission aims to promote freedom of navigation and foster ties with allies and partners. De Ruyter is also set to attend the Rim of Pacific naval drills around Hawaii later this summer.

One week before the incident, De Ruyter moored in Manila for a port visit and activities with the Philippine Navy. The frigate’s captain told local media outlet Manila Bulletin that the ship’s previous interactions with a Chinese helicopter was “professional” and did not involve a territorial challenge.

Following a brief but intense naval clash with Vietnam in the 1970s, Beijing seized control of the Paracel Islands. There remain overlapping claims among many nations in the region.

Encylclopaedia Britannica

In the decades since, China has systematically militarized the region, constructing extensive military infrastructure across a network of sprawling artificial islands. The US, Europe, and regional allies see much of this as international territory and waters.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 10:15

US New Home Sales Tumbled In April As Prices Soared

Zero Hedge -

US New Home Sales Tumbled In April As Prices Soared

With Case-Shiller reporting existing home price declines in half of America's largest cities, and after two straight months of rip-roaring demand, NAR reports that New Home Sales in April tumbled 6.2% MoM (almost twice as bad as the 3.2% MoM decline expected). March's 7.4% MoM spike was revised down bigly to just +3.4%, all of which left new home sales down 

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, new home sales have really gone nowhere for four years...

It seems lower mortgage rates did nothing to help new home sales...

Finally, while existing home prices are lower, median new home price rose 2.2% y/y to $422,500; average selling price at $508,800.

This was the biggest MoM jump in median new home prices since 2019...

Not great for affordability.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 10:07

US Charges Google Employee With Pocketing Millions From Insider Trading Bets On Polymarket

Zero Hedge -

US Charges Google Employee With Pocketing Millions From Insider Trading Bets On Polymarket

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

US authorities have charged a Google employee with allegedly using information from the company to make bets on Polymarket and profit $1.2 million.

The Justice Department said on Wednesday that it unsealed charges against Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, accusing him of accessing unreleased internal information at Google and placing 25 bets worth $2.7 million on markets related to the most searched individuals on Google in 2025.

Prosecutors said Spagnuolo owned the Polymarket account “AlphaRaccoon”, which profited $1.2 million on “outcomes that the market treated as unlikely” when Google published information on the most searched individuals in December.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a twin complaint against Spagnuolo on Wednesday, making similar allegations of insider trading.

Prediction markets are facing growing scrutiny over insider trading, with Congress launching a probe into Polymarket and Kalshi on Friday, questioning the companies’ response to incidents of insider trading on the platform, with lawmakers concerned that government officials are using insider knowledge to make bets.

Manhattan US District Attorney Jay Clayton said in a statement that the charges “reinforce a decades-old message: Corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets.”

Source: US Attorney Southern District of New York 

AlphaRaccoon account allegedly changed name 

According to the court documents, communities on Discord and X started discussing the possibility that AlphaRaccoon was a Google insider in December. Soon after, the username was allegedly changed to a wallet address.

Prosecutors alleged that the funds in the AlphaRaccoon account were also sent to a decentralized crypto swapping service and to an unnamed transfer service that offers privacy protection for blockchain transactions

The Justice Department charged Spagnuolo with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering, and could face a maximum sentence of 50 years in prison.

In its complaint, the CFTC seeks restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties and trading and registration bans. 

CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller said in a statement that “the division is a cop on the beat in policing the illegal use of inside information in the prediction markets and other markets within the CFTC’s jurisdiction.”

Source: CFTC

“We will continue to take action to protect markets from insider trading and other forms of fraud, abuse and manipulation,” Miller added.

It comes after the Justice Department charged a US soldier in April with using classified information to place bets on the US capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 09:50

Pages