Individual Economists

Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk -

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Monday:
• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were moxed over the last week with WTI futures at $57.32 per barrel and Brent at $60.75 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.27 year-over-year.

Europe's AI Ambitions Threatened By Soaring Memory Chip Prices

Zero Hedge -

Europe's AI Ambitions Threatened By Soaring Memory Chip Prices

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The ongoing boom in artificial intelligence is sending memory chip prices skyrocketing, putting pressure on data center operators. Europe currently lacks a strategy to break free from this price spiral.

The persistent surge in digitalization, particularly in AI, requires immense data storage capacity and is driving global demand for memory chips. These so-called RAM modules (Random Access Memory) have transformed from classic commodity products into highly specialized, strategic key resources of the new economy.

This strategic battle over memory chips is also reflected these weeks in the struggle for pole position between the United States and China. Just a few weeks ago, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump granted American chipmaker NVIDIA limited permission to export its chips to China—while simultaneously collecting a 25 percent export levy from the Chinese side. 

It is clear that the U.S. will increasingly use chip exports as a geopolitical lever, much like it has already done with LNG deliveries to Europe.

Memory Chips as the Foundation of the Digital Economy 

These chips are used in smartphones, data centers, AI applications, cloud solutions, servers, and nearly every industrial production process. Demand for memory chips such as DRAM and NAND Flash has surged massively over the past five years. Combined global revenue for these chips was around $120 billion in 2020—about 25 percent of the overall semiconductor market—and has increased to roughly $176 billion this year.

Worldwide lockdowns in 2020 further accelerated this trend. At the same time, they posed enormous challenges for the global economy in both energy production and memory chip manufacturing.

Europe, in particular, now faces a severe shortage problem as skyrocketing demand pushes chip prices ever higher. A few highly specialized manufacturers, such as Samsung and SK Hynix, are increasingly in the political spotlight. Their enormous pricing power directly affects European data center operators. With such market concentration, prices are rising not linearly, but exponentially, systematically stalling the expansion of European data center capacity.

Exponential Price Pressure 

To provide some relief, Samsung announced it would continue producing the soon-to-be-phased-out DDR4 standard chip beyond 2026, before factories fully switch to the new DDR5 generation. The crisis has become so acute that even this outdated technology is being artificially kept alive. The price sensitivity is stark: a 16GB DDR4 chip that previously cost around $20 now exceeds $60—and can be even higher in urgent data center upgrades.

This is not classic monetary inflation, but scarcity-driven price pressure. The crisis could last for years, with no relief in sight—particularly impacting AI and high-performance computing.

European cloud providers and mid-sized data centers face the dilemma of massive price hikes alongside slim margins. High electricity costs and shrinking financial buffers in Europe, especially Germany, exacerbate the issue. Smaller European data center operators are likely to be forced out of business under these conditions.

Europe’s Dilemma 

Apple represents an exception. The company relies on highly optimized specialty RAM modules (LPDDR5X) and has strategically secured long-term supply contracts, meaning the current chip supply crisis will hit Apple much later than other providers.

From a European perspective, the situation could hardly be more dramatic. Intel’s planned chip production facility in Germany highlights the dilemma: while it would have little immediate impact on the shortage of specialized memory chips, it exposes the core problem—billion-euro subsidies are insufficient to sustainably build competitive chip manufacturing in Europe. High energy costs and excessive bureaucracy cannot be subsidized away.

Big Goals, Limited Impact 

In response, the European Commission launched the European Chips Act in September 2023, a strategic framework aimed at strengthening Europe’s position in the global semiconductor market and reducing dependence on imports from Taiwan, South Korea, the U.S., and China. Europe currently accounts for well under 15 percent of the global chip market. Brussels is following a familiar political pattern: funding programs for startups, SMEs, research institutions, and competence centers to build knowledge, infrastructure, and retain talent.

The EU aims to locate around 20 percent of global chip production within Europe by 2030. For example, €920 million in funding has been mobilized for Infineon in Dresden—the largest semiconductor investment in the company’s history. The goal is to bring not only low-end production but large parts of the value chain to Europe. Public and private investments totaling €43 billion are targeted by 2030.

Intel’s example highlights structural challenges: European policy supports chip production, but creating a dynamic environment for startups, venture capital, and entrepreneurial innovation is left out. Greater reliance on free capital markets, less state intervention, and reduced regulation could make Europe’s technological independence more realistic. Yet, neither Brussels nor Berlin appears ready for such a paradigm shift.

* **

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 10:30

Russia, China Demand That US Immediately Release Maduro From Custody

Zero Hedge -

Russia, China Demand That US Immediately Release Maduro From Custody

Within mere hours after President Trump announced the Saturday capture by US forces of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife after a brief shock bombing campaign and special forces operation in Caracas, Russia has demanded from Washington his immediate release.

"We firmly call on the U.S. leadership to reconsider this position and release the lawfully elected president of a sovereign country and his wife," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, and described that the crisis should be resolved through diplomatic means.

"Russia will continue to support the course pursued by its Bolivarian leadership to defend the country's national interests and sovereignty," the Foreign Ministry said, while also calling for restraint and cautioning against further escalation.

This of course contradicts the US stance, which maintains that Maduro and his socialist government 'stole' the last July elections which kept him in power.

Moscow's demand that the US release and return Maduro, which is extremely unlikely at this point, comes amid rumors that Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez is actually in Moscow. Russian officials have called these rumors and reports "fake", however.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meanwhile said he held a phone conversation with Gomez, during which he conveyed his "solidarity with the Venezuelan people in the face of armed aggression."

According to Venezuela's national constitution, the Vice President assumes the power of the presidency, but amid the quick power vacuum opening up, it's anyone's guess what leadership in the country will look like even by next week.

China has joined Moscow's calls for the immediate release of Maduro from US custody:

China has called on the United States to immediately release Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after Washington carried out massive military strikes on the capital, Caracas, as well as other regions, and abducted the leader.

Beijing on Sunday insisted the safety of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores be a priority, and called on the US to "stop toppling the government of Venezuela," calling the attack a "clear violation of international law".

Russia's embassy in Caracas has made clear it is continuing to operate normally and remains in close communication with both Venezuelan officials and Russian nationals in the country. It confirmed in a statement that no Russian citizens were killed or injured in the attack.

There are reports that 40 people total died during the assault - possibly mostly at the large military bases struck in and around the capital, as the NY Times writes, "At least 40 people were killed in the U.S. attack on Venezuela early Saturday, including military personnel and civilians, according to a senior Venezuelan official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe preliminary reports."

China, Russia, Iran and other US rivals have vehemently condemned what they've characterized as a brazen act of aggression in the regime change operation. As months of US military build-up in the region unfolded, there was ample speculation that a full land invasion would ensue, or else kinetic strikes on cartel locations; however, few analysts could have envisioned a relatively clean special forces kidnapping op of a head of state. Currently, it is widely believed there must have been high-ranking military officials assisting the US behind the scenes - given just how quickly Maduro was apprehended in the capital.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 09:55

UK Goes Full Cradle-To-Grave With 'Sinister' Plan For Newborn Baby Digital IDs

Zero Hedge -

UK Goes Full Cradle-To-Grave With 'Sinister' Plan For Newborn Baby Digital IDs

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government’s digital ID push is escalating into outright dystopia, with ministers privately floating the idea of assigning digital identities to newborns right alongside their health records. 

This “sinister” expansion, revealed by the Daily Mail, exposes Labour’s true agenda: a lifelong tracking system masquerading as a tool to curb illegal immigration.

The move is being slammed as a blatant power grab, with many warning it has nothing to do with border control and everything to do with eroding freedoms from birth.

The proposal emerged in secretive Cabinet Office meetings led by minister Josh Simons, who cited Estonia’s model where infants get unique numbers at birth registration for accessing public services. 

Simons even suggested digital IDs could help teenagers log into social media, tying into global crackdowns like Australia’s under-16 ban on apps such as TikTok.

Announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in September as a way to verify job candidates’ right to work, the scheme is slated for rollout by 2028-29 at a staggering £1.8 billion cost. But the government has stonewalled on details, fueling suspicions of mission creep.

Shadow Cabinet Office minister Mike Wood blasted the idea: “Labour said their plan for mandatory digital ID was about tackling illegal immigration. But now we hear they are secretly considering forcing it on newborns. What do babies have to do with stopping the boats? This would be a deeply sinister overreach by Labour – and all without any proper national debate.”

Former Tory Cabinet minister Sir David Davis echoed the outrage, calling it “creeping state surveillance.” He added: “The idea that we should allocate children ID at birth is frankly an affront to centuries of British history, and is being put out by stupid ministers who really don’t understand the technology they are playing with. They think they are being clever and modern, but a large number of people will be outraged by this. It will end up being hated by a lot of people.”

Davis accused Starmer of peddling the policy on a “bogus premise” before quietly ballooning it without parliamentary input, labeling it a “constitutional disgrace delivered in a disgraceful manner.”

Liberal Democrat spokesman Lisa Smart warned: “Reports that ministers may be considering dragging newborn babies into their already over-reaching digital ID scheme would be a frightening development.”

Attendees at the meetings, sworn to secrecy, described jaws dropping when the newborn ID concept was raised. One source told the Daily Mail: “The disturbing prospect of digital IDs for newborn babies shows this has nothing to do with right-to-work checks, immigration or giving people choices. It’s a cradle-to-grave digital file being dishonestly forced on every single Briton. This is a shocking, underhand way to massively expand a controversial policy our country has always rejected.”

Big Brother Watch, a leading privacy advocacy group, sounded the alarm on X:

The group’s director, Silkie Carlo, has been vocal against the scheme.

This development builds on Starmer’s broader biometric tracking rollout, the “Brit Card” system—tied to the UK One Login platform—promises to block “illegal” migrants from jobs but ignores the flood of legal asylum seekers and offers endless tools for government overreach.

With net migration hitting around 500,000 annually and only a fraction deemed “illegal,” the ID won’t stem the tide but could easily punish dissenters by revoking access to work or services. It’s a classic globalist bait-and-switch: exploit public frustration over open borders to impose surveillance that targets natives.

A government spokesman claimed: “The only mandatory area of the programme will be for digital right-to-work checks. Only people starting a new job will need to use the scheme.” But a Whitehall source admitted it’s all “hypothetical,” with a public consultation pending—hardly reassuring given the secretive plotting.

 

This is the death of privacy, starting at the cradle. Brits must reject this authoritarian slide before every citizen is fully reduced to a tracked data point in a vast surveillance state.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 09:20

Update: Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Here is another update on lumber prices.
NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On January 2, 2026, LBR was at $534.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 1.6% from a year ago.
Lumber PricesClick on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year suggesting weak demand for framing lumber.

Brexit Architect Blows Lid Off Deep State Plot To Destroy Nigel Farage And Reform UK

Zero Hedge -

Brexit Architect Blows Lid Off Deep State Plot To Destroy Nigel Farage And Reform UK

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Dominic Cummings, the political strategist who oversaw Brexit, has dropped a bombshell warning to Nigel Farage: the UK establishment is plotting to crush him and Reform UK by any means necessary, including illegal tactics, to prevent a populist takeover.

As Reform surges in polls and eyes major gains in the 2026 local elections, Cummings has revealed how insiders view Farage as the next Trump-style threat they must eliminate early and ruthlessly.

Speaking on The Spectator’s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings told hosts Michael Gove and Madeline Grant: “They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records.They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to.”

Cummings added that populists in other countries will be targeted too, noting “That will be happening across Europe and they’ll all be telling themselves they’re fighting fascism together.”

He pinpointed “the people around {British PM} Starmer” as driven by Brexit revenge, saying: “The people around Starmer and all through the upper echelons of the Whitehall system are looking at Trump.”

“They’re looking across Europe, and they’re saying to themselves: ‘The lesson is to strike early and strike hard and not let these people in’,” Cummings further noted.

Cummings added that establishment figures regret allowing Vote Leave to win the Brexit referendum, seeing it as “the beginning of the disaster for us.”

Cummings claimed that the ultimate goal of the establishment is “Smashing the absolute s*** out of Farage and making sure that he doesn’t win it – by fair means and foul.”

Reform’s Zia Yusuf responded ominously: “It’s already begun.”

Cummings also described the Conservative Party as “completely dead,” urging that “They’re like the local vagrant who used to smash everything up who is now cabbaged in a wheelchair and isn’t relevant anymore.”

The warning comes amid reports of media smears against Farage, including decades-old allegations from The Guardian, which he dismissed as backfiring: “It’s having zero effect. It’s maybe solidifying our core support.”

Farage vowed in a New Year’s message that strong local election results could propel Reform to victory in the next general election: “If we get this right on May 7 this year, we will go on and win that General Election.”

Cummings’ exposé aligns perfectly with revelations from ex-Starmer aide Paul Ovenden, who just hours earlier accused civil servants of hijacking government via a “Stakeholder State” obsessed with fringe issues while siphoning power from voters.

Ovenden slammed this perma-class for wasting time on bizarre priorities like importing anti-white activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah, calling it a “morbid symptom of a state that has got bigger and bigger while simultaneously and systematically emasculating itself.”

This entrenched blob – NGOs, regulators, and lobbyists – now appears laser-focused on neutralizing threats like Farage, using dirty tricks to protect their grip.

It’s the same elite network plotting cradle-to-grave surveillance through newborn digital IDs, as exposed in our report on Labour’s dystopian scheme to track citizens from birth under the guise of immigration control.

The message is clear: the Deep State are not willing to let populists like Farage further disrupt their globalist agenda.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 08:10

Canceled Flights Across Caribbean Resume After US Captures Maduro

Zero Hedge -

Canceled Flights Across Caribbean Resume After US Captures Maduro

Air travel across the Caribbean has normalized after a day of disruptions triggered by a U.S. special forces operation that successfully captured Venezuela's socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro.

Late Saturday night, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wrote on X that "original restrictions around Caribbean airspace are expiring at 12:00 a.m. ET and flights can resume."

"Airlines are informed and will update their schedules quickly. Please continue to work with your airline if your flight was affected by the restrictions," Duffy said.

There was widespread confusion on Saturday as flights across the Caribbean were canceled or delayed following the U.S. operation in Venezuela. Airspace over Puerto Rico was temporarily restricted, forcing the cancellation of departures from Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport, officials at the airport wrote in a statement. At least 150 outbound flights from the region's busiest Caribbean hub were cancelled, according to flight tracking website FlightAware, while another 140 inbound flights bound for San Juan were also canceled.

Delta Air Lines said normal operations in the region would resume early Sunday after airspace restrictions were lifted at 13 Caribbean airports.

Some of the affected airports Delta listed included:

  • V.C. Bird International Airport (ANU)

  • Queen Beatrix International Airport (AUA)

  • Grantley Adams International Airport (BGI)

  • Flamingo International Airport (BON)

  • Curaçao International Airport (CUR)

  • Maurice Bishop International Airport (GND)

  • Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU)

  • Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport (SKB)

  • Cyril E. King Airport (STT)

  • Henry E. Rohlsen Airport (STX)

  • Argyle International Airport (SVD)

  • Princess Juliana International Airport (SXM)

  • Hewanorra International Airport (UVF)

One reader traveling inbound to Cancún said early Saturday that his Frontier Airlines flight was delayed, citing the captain, who told passengers the disruption was due to airspace restrictions.

In addition to Delta and Frontier, American Airlines, JetBlue, Southwest Airlines, and Spirit Airlines also experienced flight disruptions on Saturday.

Readers can catch up on the latest reporting (here), detailing Maduro's capture, how he was captured by Delta Force operators, and his transfer with his wife to New York City, where he was placed in federal detention. Maduro has been charged with drug trafficking and terrorism-related charges. 

The good news is that air traffic will begin to normalize across the Caribbean as restrictions expire and carriers begin restoring schedules.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 07:35

Germany's Banking Sector Faces Growing Crisis Amid Record Insolvencies

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Banking Sector Faces Growing Crisis Amid Record Insolvencies

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German economic crisis is slowly but surely making its way into the balance sheets of banks. Above all, the crisis in the largely credit-financed Mittelstand is increasingly weighing on savings banks and cooperative banks.

The year 2025 is ending as a disastrous year for the German economy. Around 24,000 companies filed for insolvency—a record figure, surpassed only in the crisis year 2003 following the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the subsequent recession. Back then, a total of 39,000 companies went bankrupt.

Deindustrialization and Loan Defaults 

Loan defaults in the past year are estimated at around €57 billion. These losses hit suppliers and banks hard, especially since the German Mittelstand finances roughly 40% through savings banks and 25% through cooperative banks.

Already in the previous year, losses from corporate insolvencies had accumulated to around €59 billion. The causes have long been known: the persistent weakness of the German economy results from a toxic mix of overregulation, climate-policy-driven deindustrialization, a self-inflicted energy crisis, and high fiscal burdens. This poisonous cocktail severely strains the economy, weakens private demand, and makes industrial production in Germany increasingly unattractive on the international stage.

The ripple effects of a roughly 20% drop in industrial production reach far into other sectors. Supplier companies as well as industry-related services are increasingly under pressure—and are collapsing in many areas.

Pressure Beneath the Surface 

At first glance, the German banking sector still appears stable. Industry giant Deutsche Bank increased its pre-tax profit in Q3 2025 by 8% year-on-year to €2.4 billion. The bank saw growth across all business areas—from traditional lending to investment banking to asset management.

The situation is different for cooperative banks. Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken already suffered a 25% drop in profits last year compared to the previous year. Further revenue declines are expected for 2025. The main reasons are the persistently weak economy, rising geopolitical tensions, and higher risk provisions in the face of growing credit default risks.

Germany’s once stable three-pillar banking model—private large banks, public-sector institutions like savings banks and state banks, and cooperative banks—still shows outward growth. But beneath the surface, deep cracks are forming: years of low interest rates have sharply squeezed bank margins, and the abrupt interest rate reversal is weighing on both businesses and consumers. Added to this is the problematic close entanglement between cooperative banks and politics.

For example, the agricultural cooperative BayWa in Bavaria nearly went bankrupt after engaging in global renewable energy investments—leaving a €100 million loss.

This example illustrates the risks of political steering of the banking sector through public institute credit guarantees like KfW. Nowadays, billions are channeled annually into the climate economy and the military sector—keeping a zombie economy afloat that could never survive in a free capital market.

Examples of the emerging banking crisis are multiplying: VR-Bank Dortmund Nordwest suffered losses of €280 million from risky real estate fund investments, requiring a bailout from the Cooperative Protection Fund (BVR).

VR-Bank Bad Salzungen-Schmalkalden lost a similar amount in dubious real estate deals two years ago and also called on the BVR for rescue. These cases show that banks, facing a declining credit business with the Mittelstand, are forced to move outward on the risk curve to generate operational profits.

The effects are tangible: a BaFin analysis shows that last year, about 1.9% of savings bank loans and 2.2% of cooperative bank loans were non-performing. This corresponds to a volume of €36.5 billion—a 25% increase from the previous year. Consequently, banks are forced to increase credit risk provisions—freezing more capital and making new loans harder to grant.

\Branch Closures and a Mortgage Crisis on the Horizon 

Raiffeisenbank Hochtaunus recently fell into serious financial trouble after making €500 million in value adjustments to its real estate portfolio.

Creaking sounds are coming from all corners of the German economy. It is expected that the economic crisis will translate into a crisis of regional banks’ mortgage portfolios, alongside private insolvencies. Stress in the banking system is increasing quarter by quarter.

Banks are responding to growing pressure with tough measures. Over 1,000 bank branches are closed annually in Germany. The local Sparkasse may soon become a thing of the past. This not only makes personal consultations harder for older customers but also hits bank clients in rural areas. Small and medium-sized enterprises, craft businesses, bakeries, and local retailers who rely on personal financial advice increasingly find fewer direct contacts and a trusted banking environment.

Balance Sheet Damage Becomes Visible 

Bank balance sheets reflect the overall economic situation. At the same time, they are influenced by financial and fiscal policy developments. Years of elevated loan defaults erode the financial substance of banks just as much as the globally high sovereign debt, which has caused significant devaluations of bond holdings on balance sheets.

In short: the longer the crisis in the private economy persists and the more it is exacerbated by fiscal undiscipline and growing government debt, the lower the lending potential of the banking sector.

This is precisely the crux of monetary policy. The European Central Bank can lower interest rates and private sector financing costs all it wants. Lending in the real economy is determined by the interaction between private companies and credit-granting banks.

Unless Germany’s economic outlook brightens considerably—which, under current political conditions, is unlikely—lending will significantly slow on the one hand, while defaults accelerate on the other. This would be further evidence that the German economy is continuing to sink deeper and deeper into a contraction phase.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 07:00

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Partying at Mar-a-Lago with the New MAGA Media Stars: While major news outlets obsessed over the anticipated release of the Epstein files, Trump-friendly news influencers celebrated how far they’ve come. (Columbia Journalism Review)

Meta created ‘playbook’ to fend off pressure to crack down on scammers, documents show: As regulators press Meta to crack down on rogue advertisers on Facebook and Instagram, the social media giant has drafted a “playbook” to stall them. Internal documents seen by Reuters reveal its tactics, including efforts to make scam ads “not findable” when authorities search for them. (Reuters)

Inside China’s Shadow LNG Fleet Offering a Lifeline to Putin: A clandestine operation involving shell companies and high-seas maneuvers is keeping the Sino-Russian energy trade afloat. (Bloomberg)

Satellites show dozens of U.S. dams are sinking. More could be at risk. Researchers detected subtle shifts in the height of all 41 structures they studied in 13 states and Puerto Rico. (Washington Post)

Tesla Loses Its EV Crown to BYD as Sales Keep Dropping: Full-year electric vehicle sales figures have dropped for 2025, revealing China’s BYD is now officially global top dog. (Wired) see also China’s BYD set to overtake Tesla as world’s top EV seller: On Thursday, BYD said that sales of its battery-powered cars rose last year by almost 28% to more than 2.25 million. Tesla, which is due to reveal its total sales for 2025 later on Friday, last week published analyst’s estimates suggesting that it had sold around 1.65 million vehicles for the year as a whole. (BBC) see also Tesla’s Vanishing Order Hastens Fall of an $800 Million Fortune: Shares in L&F Co., a producer of high-nickel cathodes used in electric-vehicle batteries, have fallen more than 70% from their 2023 peak, which was fueled by a massive Tesla order then valued at $2.9 billion. On Monday, the company disclosed that the contract value had been restated to just $7,386 — a 99% reduction. (Bloomberg)

So This Is Why Trump Didn’t Want to Release the Epstein Files: The latest batch includes many new references to Trump—and enough ammunition for Congress to keep pressing. (The Atlantic)

How Project 2025 kneecapped the US press. The Heritage Foundation’s road map for a conservative presidency proposed sweeping media reforms. Trump carried out most of them—and he has three years left. (Columbia Journalism Review)

Nick Shirley’s Somali Daycare Fraud Video Is Bullsh*t. Here’s Why It Worked Anyway. A breakdown of the disinformation tactics used in the viral video. (Weaponized)

• Erasing the Verdict: The Ongoing Shock of Trump’s Cocaine Kingpin Pardon: Donald Trump’s pardon of Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, toppled the capstone of one of the most ambitious narcotics investigations in the history of the Department of Justice. (Businessweek) See also The year Trump broke the federal government: How DOGE and the White House carried out a once-unthinkable transformation of the nation’s sprawling bureaucracy. (Washington Post)

Can We Trust Social Science Yet? Everyone likes the idea of evidence-based policy, but it’s hard to realize it when our most reputable social science journals are still publishing poor quality research. (Asterisk)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

 

The largest start-up losses in history

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Misinformation Inquisition: How Censorship Shields Approved Narratives From Scrutiny

Zero Hedge -

The Misinformation Inquisition: How Censorship Shields Approved Narratives From Scrutiny

Authored by Tilak Doshi via Substack,

As the year drew to a close, the guardians of climate orthodoxy once again unleashed their ritualistic howls of indignation at the actions of the Trump administration. Last week’s op-ed in The Guardian, Bob Ward and Michael Mann—attack dogs of the alarmist establishment—likened the US government’s decision to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to tyranny, “paid for” by fossil fuel interests. Their op-ed opens with the astonishing claim that the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin “would have understood and even appreciated” Trump’s actions.

They accuse President Trump of suppressing climate science, evoking the spectre of Lysenkoism, that infamous episode where ideology trumped empirical inquiry under Stalin’s regime. The irony is exquisite even if lost on its progenitors. Here are two figures who have spent their careers calling for the cancelling of dissenters, now projecting their own sins onto a political leader intent on liberating science from ideological captivity.

An Orwellian Malignancy

This latest salvo is no aberration but a symptom of a deeper malaise. The climate alarmist narrative, much like its twin in the COVID-19 hysteria, relies on a censorship complex that brands any deviation as “misinformation.” Ward, a fixture in the environmental NGO circuit, has long specialized in ad hominem attacks on respected academics like Richard Lindzen and Richard Tol, dismissing their peer-reviewed critiques as heresy. Mann, infamous for his “hockey stick” graph that conveniently erased historical climate variability to fabricate a crisis, has faced courtroom rebukes for his litigious zeal. In his defamation suits, judges have accused him and his legal team of misleading tactics, underscoring the fraudulence of his claims. Yet, in the pages of The Guardian—that reliable echo chamber for green ideologues—the pair inverts reality, portraying Trump’s defunding of activist institutions as censorship, when it is precisely the opposite.

Consider the economic and institutional realities underpinning this charade. NCAR, after over five decades, has devolved into a taxpayer-funded propaganda mill, churning out models that predict apocalyptic futures while ignoring the stubborn facts of atmospheric physics and human adaptation. The Trump administration’s move to shutter it aligns with a broader push to restore scientific integrity, as outlined in the president’s “Gold Standard Science“ executive order. This directive mandates transparency in federally funded research, ensuring that models and data are replicable and free from the biases that plague alarmist projections. Far from Stalinist suppression, this is a reclamation of science from the clutches of unelected bureaucrats and their NGO allies, who funnel billions into “climate education” grants that invariably promote one-sided advocacy. NOAA, for instance, routinely awarded multimillion-dollar sums to nonprofits peddling green dogma, all under the guise of environmental stewardship.

The parallels with the COVID-19 debacle are striking, revealing how the misinformation label serves as a blunt instrument for silencing debate across scientific domains. Just as climate skeptics are tarred as “deniers,” COVID dissenters were branded spreaders of falsehoods. Stanford’s Jay Bhattacharya, a leading epidemiologist, recently highlighted this hubris in a post on X: the notion that a cabal of bureaucrats and activist scientists can infallibly discern truth from error on complex matters is not just arrogant—it’s delusional. Bhattacharya himself endured censorship orchestrated by Anthony Fauci who among others in the medical establishment pressured social media platforms to throttle views challenging lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

Across the Atlantic, the European Union’s censorship regime under European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen exemplifies this technocratic overreach. The unelected Eurocrat boasts of safeguarding free speech against “harmful and illegal activities” online with its Digital Services Act. It aims to restrict media platforms which host “disinformation” and critical views on mass immigration, the Ukraine conflict, or the ruinous costs of the green agenda in Europe.

In a rant that would impress Orwell, Ms. Von der Leyen speaks about how “pre-bunking” is preferable to “de-bunking” alleged untruths and where alleged “misinformation” is a virus:

“…we need to build up societal immunity around information manipulation, because research has shown that pre-bunking is much more successful than debunking. Pre-bunking is basically the opposite of debunking. In short, prevention is preferable to cure. Perhaps if you think of information manipulation as a virus—instead of treating an infection once it has taken hold, that is debunking—it’s much better to vaccinate so that the body is inoculated.”

Where have we heard that vaccination/inoculation story before? Perhaps we should not digress into Ms. Von der Leyen’s missing SMS phone messages which sealed the EU’s deal for 1.8 billion doses of corona “vaccine” costing €35 billion negotiated with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla.

In New Zealand, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern went further, declaring government sources the sole arbiters of COVID truth, effectively criminalizing legitimate critiques from sceptical doctors and scientists upholding their Hippocratic oath. This Orwellian stance—where state-approved narratives are sacrosanct—mirrors the climate arena, where questioning net-zero fantasies invites professional ruin.

The Trumpian Pushback

The EU’s Digital Services Act plans to coerce social media giants into suppressing content that challenges Brussels’ orthodoxies, leading to a chilling effect on open discourse throughout the world. Earlier in the month, the European Commission fined Elon Musk’s X $140 million for “failing to comply” with regulations. But it is now a Trumpian world which frustrates Eurocrats to no end. America’s commitment to First Amendment principles clashes with Europe’s slide into regulatory authoritarianism. The US house judiciary committee describes the digital regulations as censorship which is “largely one-sided, almost uniformly targeting political conservatives.”

The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shot back last week:

For far too long, ideologues in Europe have led organized efforts to coerce American platforms to punish American viewpoints they oppose. The Trump Administration will no longer tolerate these egregious acts of extraterritorial censorship. Today, @StateDept will take steps to bar leading figures of the global censorship-industrial complex from entering the United States. We stand ready and willing to expand this list if others do not reverse course.”

The U.S. state department’s sanctions on NGO leaders and a former EU official involved in these efforts underscore the geopolitical rift. Under Secretary Sarah Rogers detailed the individuals and the reasons why they have been barred. On the US state ban list are Imran Ahmed (Centre for Countering Digital Hate), Josephine Ballon and Anna-Lena von Hodenberg (HateAid), Thierry Breton (former EU Commissioner) as well as Clare Melford (Global Disinformation Index).

Let’s go through each of these censors.

Thierry Breton was a key architect of the Digital Services Act. In August 2024, as European Commissioner for Internal Markets and Digital Services, he issued a letter to threaten Elon Musk ahead of his live stream interview with candidate Trump who was campaigning for his second term. The hubris of an EU functionary to warn Mr. Musk that his platform could be charged for amplifying harmful content in the EU can only be described as bizarre.

Undersecretary Rogers accused the UK citizen Imran Ahmed of collaborating “with the Biden Administration’s effort to weaponize the government against U.S. citizens” in a social media post on December 23rd, writing that his organization published the “infamous ‘disinformation dozen’ report” that spurred a campaign to de-platform those questioning the safety of COVID-19 vaccines including the current Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. .

“Leaked documents from CCDH show the organization listed ‘kill Musk’s Twitter,’ and ’trigger EU and UK regulatory action’ as priorities…The organization supports the UK’s Online Safety Act and EU’s Digital Services Act to expand censorship in Europe and around the world.”

It is interesting and not coincidental that Imran Ahmed’s CCDH was founded by Morgan Sweeny, Kier Starmer’s chief adviser. Clare Melford is the founder of the Global Disinformation Index, another British NGO that vigorously pursues anti-“hate-speech” activism, in fact hunting down anyone who has views different from the official dogma on climate change or so-called anti-vaxxers

Anna Lena von Hodenberg is the leader and founder of Hate Aid, a German NGO founded after the 2017 German federal elections to counter conservative groups such as the AfD. Ms. Anna and her NGO is an official “trusted flagger” under the EU’s digital services act. Clare Melford. Ahmed is the CEO of The Center for Countering Digital Hate, and Melford is the founder of the Global Disinformation Index, both two entities extremely active in anti-“hate-speech” activism, in fact hunting down anyone who has views different from the official dogma on climate change or so-called anti-vaxxers,

Morally Bankruptcy of the Eurocrats

Von der Leyen’s pronouncements on “inoculated information” ring hollow amid Europe’s deindustrialization, where energy policies driven by climate ideology have shuttered factories, spiked power prices, and eroded competitiveness. Germany’s Energiewende, once hailed as a model, now stands as a cautionary tale of economic self-harm, with manufacturing output shares plummeting and GDP growth stagnating.

At the heart of this EU-led censorship complex lies a modern Lysenkoism, where ideology masquerades as science. Today’s climate Lysenkoists similarly dismiss empirical inconveniences: satellite data showing no acceleration in sea-level rise, historical records of globally warmer periods like the Medieval Warm Period, or the economic models demonstrating that net-zero targets would cost trillions while yielding negligible climate benefits. But Eurocrats will condemn as “misinformation” self-evident arguments that cheap, reliable energy is the bedrock of human welfare. Witness Asia’s ascent, where coal, oil and gas have fueled GDP growth rates averaging 7% over decades, slashing poverty from 60% to under 5% in regions like East Asia.

The institutional incentives behind climate alarmism are pernicious. Multilateral agencies like the IMF and World Bank, alongside green lobbies, perpetuate myths of “fossil fuel subsidies“ that distort markets, penalizing hydrocarbons while subsidizing intermittent renewables to the tune of $1.3 trillion annually globally. In Africa, the push for “renewable leapfrogging“ ignores the continent’s dire need for baseload power, condemning millions to energy poverty under the banner of climate justice. Western elites, insulated from the consequences, preach degrowth while developing nations in BRICS+ reject such masochism, opting for pragmatic energy mixes that prioritize growth over virtue-signaling.

The contradictions of the censors of “misinformation” are glaring: alarmists decry “misinformation” while propagating doomsday scenarios that fail to materialize—recall the 50 years of apocalyptic predictions. Europe’s precipitous industrial decline exposes the folly of subordinating energy policies to ideology. In the U.S., the virtue signalling ESG investment drive — pushed by BlackRock’s Larry Fink among others — which funnelled trillions into underperforming green assets, is unravelling as returns lag and lawsuits mount over fiduciary breaches.

A New Year’s Gift

Yet, there is cause for optimism in this twilight of technocratic hubris. President Trump’s re-election signals a pivot toward evidence-based policy, unshackling science from the misinformation inquisition. By defunding activist enclaves like NCAR and enforcing transparency via executive order, the administration paves the way for genuine inquiry. Imagine a world where debates on climate sensitivity, the role of solar cycles, or the costs of adaptation are conducted openly, without fear of cancellation.

As Jay Bhattarcharya reminds us, free speech and replication as the standard of truth are necessary conditions for science to flourish. We need rational argument and data, not the censorship of state-defined “misinformation”. The US state department censoring the censors is good news as the New Year beckons.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 23:20

Visualizing All Of The World's Oil Reserves By Country

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Visualizing All Of The World's Oil Reserves By Country

Oil remains one of the most strategically important resources in the global economy. It powers transportation systems, underpins industrial activity, and continues to shape geopolitics and trade flows. While renewable energy is growing, oil still plays a dominant role in meeting global energy needs.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks countries by the size of their proven oil reserves at the end of 2024.

The data for this graphic comes from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025. Figures represent proven oil reserves as of year-end 2024 and are measured in billions of barrels. The data includes conventional crude oil as well as oil sands.

Four Countries Dominate Global Oil Reserves

Global oil reserves are highly concentrated.

Venezuela ranks first with an estimated 303 billion barrels of oil reserves. However, turning this vast resource base into economic and geopolitical power has proven difficult, as ongoing U.S. sanctions and the recent seizure of Venezuelan oil shipments under the Trump administration continue to limit the Maduro government’s ability to export crude and fully monetize its reserves.

Saudi Arabia follows the South American country with 267 billion barrels. Iran, Canada, and Iraq round out the top five.

Rank Country 2024 (Billion Barrels) 1 Venezuela 303,221 2 Saudi Arabia 267,200 3 Iran 208,600 4 Canada 163,000 5 Iraq 145,019 6 United Arab Emirates 113,000 7 Kuwait 101,500 8 Russia 80,000 9 Libya 48,363 10 United States 45,014 11 Nigeria 37,280 12 Kazakhstan 30,000 13 China 28,182 14 Qatar 25,244 15 Brazil 15,894 16 Algeria 12,200 17 Ecuador 8,273 18 Azerbaijan 7,000 19 Norway 6,912 20 Mexico 5,136 21 Sudan 5,000 22 India 4,981 23 Oman 4,971 24 Vietnam 4,400 25 Egypt 3,300 26 Argentina 2,999 27 Malaysia 2,700 28 Angola 2,550 29 Indonesia 2,410 30 Colombia 2,019 31 Gabon 2,000 32 Congo 1,811 33 Australia 1,803 34 United Kingdom 1,500 35 Brunei 1,100 36 Equatorial Guinea 1,100 37 Turkmenistan 600 38 Uzbekistan 594 39 Ukraine 395 40 Denmark 365 41 Belarus 198 42 Chile 150 The Role of OPEC and the Middle East

Many of the world’s largest oil reserves are held by OPEC members, particularly in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates anchor the region’s dominance.

These countries benefit from low extraction costs and large, easily accessible reserves. As a result, Middle Eastern producers are expected to remain critical suppliers even as global demand growth slows.

Oil Sands and Non-OPEC Producers

Canada stands out among non-OPEC countries, ranking fourth globally with 163 billion barrels of reserves. The majority of Canada’s reserves come from oil sands, which are more expensive and carbon-intensive to extract. Russia and the United States also rank among the top 10.

Taken together, the data highlights how unevenly oil resources are distributed and why oil-rich nations continue to have significant economic and geopolitical power.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Charted: Global Grid Investment by Country (2020–2027F) on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 22:45

4,400 Starlink Satellites To Move To Lower Orbit

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4,400 Starlink Satellites To Move To Lower Orbit

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

SpaceX will move about 4,400 Starlink satellites to a lower orbit this year to better control risks and improve safety, the company announced Friday.

Michael Nicholls, vice president of Starlink engineering, posted the news on X, saying the adjustment would increase space safety in several ways.

Elon Musk’s Starlink system contributes more than 9,000 satellites to an increasingly crowded Earth orbit. Of those in the Starlink system, only two are not functioning, according to Nicholls.

Nicholls also noted that the atmospheric changes brought on by solar activity can affect satellite operations. An active sun causes a thicker atmosphere, which can bring spacecraft down faster.

Low solar activity, such as during the solar minimum after 2030, can have an opposite effect.

The number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations at the lower orbit—below 500 kilometers from Earth—is smaller, which reduces the likelihood of collision, Nicholls stated.

If a satellite does fail in orbit, Starlink wants to remove it as quickly as possible, improving the safety of the rest of the satellite constellation, Nicholls said.

Starlink also announced Thursday it had lost contact with one of its satellites and that it would work with NASA to monitor it.

“On December 17, Starlink experienced an anomaly on satellite 35956, resulting in loss of communications with the vehicle at 418 km,” Starlink posted on X.

The satellite was largely intact, tumbling, and is expected to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere within weeks. It poses no risk to the orbiting Space Station or its crew, the company stated.

“As the world’s largest satellite constellation operator, we are deeply committed to space safety. We take these events seriously,” the post said.

Starlink has seen explosive growth in the past five years, expanding into a global internet provider with millions of subscribers and challenging traditional satellite and terrestrial broadband internet providers.

The company connected more than 4.6 million users, according to its 2024 year-end report.

In five years, SpaceX has activated internet for more than 2.8 billion people around the world, including in some of the most remote parts of the planet, according to the report.

The U.S. Air Force is also conducting research to consider integrating Starlink into its Ghostrider gunships or heavy-lift cargo planes. Air Force Special Operations Command published a notice Tuesday requesting information on Starlink and its military version, Starshield.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 22:10

Winter Energy Bills Surge, Leaving American Families Struggling

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Winter Energy Bills Surge, Leaving American Families Struggling

As December BGE bills arrive after a cold winter, many Harford County residents say soaring energy costs are leaving them frightened and overwhelmed, according to Fox Baltimore.

Jenny, who lives in a 1,000-square-foot home and keeps her thermostat in the mid-60s, is facing a bill of about $400 despite working full time and spending most of the day out of the house.

"The fear of being turned off, especially with it being you some mornings in the teens, the being fearful," Jenny said. "Can I afford groceries this month, or do I pay this BGE bill and go to food pantries?"

"Nothing in my life has actually changed. I still work full time. I'm out of the house all day working, and I just think that these rates are outrageous," she added.

Across town, Teresa Stepp received a bill exceeding $1,200.

"Everybody uses more gas and electric for heat in the winter that is not uncommon. It is the norm, so with that being said, still it seems excessive," Stepp said.

BGE reports that for the 30-day period ending Dec. 21, 2025, electric heating customers used 11% more energy than last year, while gas customers used 13% more, driven by colder weather. Higher distribution rates, rising supply costs across the PJM region, state-driven fees, and limited in-state energy generation—Maryland now imports about 40% of its power—have also pushed bills higher.

"What do you pick and choose? I have to have car insurance. I have to get to work. It's just a lot. It's very stressful," Jenny said.

Fox Baltimore writes that recent rate changes add further pressure. A new increase raises the average residential electric bill by $1.07 per month and gas by $2.65. Beginning in February, an additional PSC-approved increase adds 72 cents for electric customers and $1.95 for gas customers each month through 2027.

While lawmakers approved limited relief last year, residents say it falls short.

"And then they say, "Okay, well, we're going to give you a bit of a rebate,"" Stepp said. "It was $40, so the impact is I have medical bills, and those are astronomical. My husband had a stroke last year. We're still bailing out of that. The food bills have tripled. The cost of my car registration has tripled."

"My message is, you're forcing us to leave," she added.
"You are forcing people that have been native to Maryland, that the people that have paid their way, paved the way as a part of the economy for years and years that you're saying we can no longer afford to live here. I can't."

A BGE spokesperson said the company is working to balance affordability with the need to provide safe electric and gas service and noted customers can seek payment assistance at BGE.com/billhelp.

"Please make changes, the governor, BGE, whomever, please change this immediately, because it's affecting all of us," Jenny said. "It's not okay,"

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 21:35

Made-In-USA Cars Granted Trump Tax Break In IRS Deduction Guidance

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Made-In-USA Cars Granted Trump Tax Break In IRS Deduction Guidance

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of the Treasury issued guidance on Wednesday regarding the deduction for car loan interest payments made by taxpayers.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building in Washington on March 25, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

A statement from the IRS said that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in July, includes a provision regarding auto loan interest paid by car owners.

The provision allows owners who bought vehicles with final assembly in the United States to deduct up to $10,000 in car loan interest from their taxable income for 2025 through 2028.

The deduction applies to interest paid on vehicle loans incurred after Dec. 31, 2024, for the purchase of new, made-in-America vehicles, the IRS said. The tax benefits apply to taxpayers who take the standard deduction and to those who itemize deductions.

The newly issued guidance provides clarity on the eligibility criteria for such deductions, including qualifying loans, the amount of interest paid, and whether the vehicle is bought for personal use.

For instance, the guidance states that in addition to requiring the final assembly of vehicles to be in the United States, a vehicle must meet other conditions to be eligible for interest deductions, such as a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds, and that the original use of the vehicle must have commenced with the taxpayer.

For determining whether final assembly occurred in the United States, a buyer can check the vehicle identification number at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration website.

As for the $10,000 max deduction limit, it only applies to federal tax returns, the guidance clarified. “If two taxpayers have a Federal income tax return filing status of married filing separately, the $10,000 limitation would apply separately to each taxpayer’s return.”

If the modified adjusted gross income of a taxpayer for a year exceeds $100,000, the deduction limit decreases by $200 for every $1,000 in extra income. For married taxpayers filing a joint return, the cuts in deductions start once income exceeds $200,000.

The guidance clarified that while eligibility for loan interest deduction requires that the vehicle be used for personal purposes, there is no insistence that a vehicle be purchased “exclusively” for personal use.

Requiring taxpayers to make a determination regarding the exact amount of expected personal use and non-personal use is not administrable and may result in a considerable burden to taxpayers, ” the guidance said.

Regarding deceased owners, some estates, formed to hold a deceased owner’s property for their heirs, may purchase new vehicles. These estates qualify for the loan interest deduction, the guidance said, adding that certain trusts, like qualified funeral trusts, may never be eligible.

Tariffs and Vehicle Sales

In a July 15 post, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy had suggested that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s car loan interest deduction would not completely offset the higher auto prices triggered by the Trump administration’s tariffs on these items.

The administration had instituted 25 percent tariffs on auto imports in April, followed by 25 percent tariffs in May on the import of auto parts in a bid to protect American manufacturing and counter the unfair trade practices of its trading partners. The rates have been adjusted for certain nations based on trade negotiations.

The deduction would offset only 36 to 43 percent of tariff-induced price increases for working-class families while buyers with higher incomes could see offsets ranging up to 85 percent,” the institute said.

“On a $40,000 vehicle, the net price increase would range from $201 to $879 for eligible claimants and would be $1,363 for car buyers ineligible for the deduction.”

However, recent estimates show no decline in car sales in the country despite the implementation of higher tariffs.

According to a Dec. 17 post by industry expert Cox Automotive, new vehicle sales are expected to close 2025 up 1.8 percent year-over-year per estimates from Kelly Blue Book. New vehicle sales for the year are estimated to be 16.3 million, making 2025 the “best sales year since 2019,” it said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 21:00

What Is The Real Reason For The Historic Drop In US Homicide Rates?

Zero Hedge -

What Is The Real Reason For The Historic Drop In US Homicide Rates?

Despite a flurry of politically charged violence and a number of Islamic and left-wing motivated terror attacks, 2025 also experienced the largest single-year decline in homicides in US history.  The plunge brings official US homicide rates to near-record lows.

Based on a sampling of preliminary crime statistics from 550 U.S. law enforcement agencies, the year is expected to end with a roughly 20% decrease in homicides nationwide, Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst, told ABC News. 

"So, even taking a conservative view, let's say its 17% or 16%, you're still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025," said Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former crime analyst for the CIA and the New Orleans Police Department.  

The drop comes after what many law enforcement analysts call the "Pandemic Surge", the Biden era explosion in homicides and overall crime was considered endemic to Democrat controlled cities across the US.  Though, Democrat leaders claimed throughout Biden's term that no such surge was taking place.  

The spike in murders was the largest since the early 1990s at the height of the gang violence era.  However, criminal data collection was incomplete during the Biden years due to a sudden change in the FBI's Summary Reporting System (SRS).  Starting in 2021, the FBI began transitioning to a new method called the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). 

This transition was officially slated to take up to five years to complete and during the changeover a large percentage of US cities were not required to submit complete crime stats.  Meaning, as bad as the pandemic surge was, the real crime rate was likely much higher than reported.  

By the end of 2024, crime data coverage returned to around 95% of the population.  This is rather convenient for Democrats given they had a convenient excuse to suppress true crime rates through lack of reporting; then, the reporting system went back to normal as soon as Donald Trump returned to office. 

If the stats are accurate for 2025, this means the Trump Administration has overseen the largest ever drop in homicides in the US in it's first year without the benefit of incomplete FBI data.  This is impressive.

But there as some lingering concerns about the accuracy of blue city crime rates.  For example, Washington DC officials have been caught in the midst of active suppression of crime data, using intimidation of precinct commanders as a means to rig arrest records and downgrade offenses while progressive prosecutors and judges keep conviction rates low. 

The exposure of this fraud (due to law enforcement whistleblowers) led to the resignation of D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith and an ongoing congressional investigation.

The question is, how many other blue cities are involved in the same kind of crime stat suppression and is this the real cause of the drop in criminal activity.  Or, did Trump play a substantial role in cutting down homicides?  Perhaps the mass deportations along with National Guard deployments in place like DC and LA have had a meaningful effect on urban violence. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 20:25

Coal Remains King In India While Exports Optimize Domestic Stock

Zero Hedge -

Coal Remains King In India While Exports Optimize Domestic Stock

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Coal India Limited, the biggest coal producer in the world’s second-biggest coal user, opened this year its online coal supply auctions directly to buyers in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal, as Indian coal supply has swelled amid weaker-than-expected demand in recent months. 

Amid an oversupply of coal and weaker demand, India and its top state coal producer are looking to optimize domestic supply and monetize exports to neighboring countries.
Until 2026, only middlemen could bid in Coal India’s online supply auctions. This has now changed with the new policy. 

“In a first, effective January 1, 2026, CIL has permitted coal consumers located in the neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, who wish to import coal from India, to directly participate in the Single Window Mode Agnostic (SWMA) auctions conducted by the company,” Coal India said in a statement on Friday, as carried by The Economic Times.

“Opening SWMA e-auctions to foreign buyers reflects CIL's calibrated approach to market expansion while fully safeguarding domestic coal requirements. This step enhances transparency, competition and global market integration,” a senior company official told the publication. 

Opening the e-auctions directly to buyers sent Coal India’s shares rallying by 7% on the local stock exchange at close on Friday. 

Coal-fired power generation and capacity installations in India continue to rise and coal remains a key pillar of India’s electricity mix with about 60% share of total power output.

Despite booming renewable capacity additions, India continues to rely on coal to meet most of its power demand as authorities also look to avoid blackouts in cases of severe heat waves.

Coal will still be a key part of India’s power system for the next two decades, Rajnath Ram, adviser for energy NITI Aayog, said in September. 

“We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how sustainably we can use it,” the official noted.  

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 19:50

California's Open-Carry Ban Shot Down By Federal Appeals Court

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California's Open-Carry Ban Shot Down By Federal Appeals Court

2026 started with a bang for proponents of the human right of armed self-defense, as a US appeals court on Friday ruled that California's de facto statewide ban on openly carrying firearms violates the US Constitution. However, there's reason to think it will flip the other way as the litigation proceeds to the next phase. For now, though, leftists are recoiling. California governor and likely 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom said "Republican activists on the Ninth Circuit" want to "return to the days of the Wild West." 

Then-20-year-old Caitlin Rutherford wearing a Glock at her parents' Virginia home (Washingtonian

As with other recent victories for gun rights, this one springs from the test prescribed by the impactful 2022 US Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. In that case, the court said firearm restrictions are only permissible if they are consistent with the country's "historical tradition of firearm regulation." The three-judge panel ruled against the open-carry ban in a 2-1 ruling, overturning a lower-court judge's interpretation. As Judge Lawrence VanDyke wrote in the majority opinion: 

“The historical record makes unmistakably plain that open carry is part of this nation’s history and tradition. It was clearly protected at the time of the founding and at the time of the adoption of the 14th Amendment. There is no record of any law restricting open carry at the Founding, let alone a distinctly similar historical regulation... for the first 162 years of its history open carry was a largely unremarkable part of daily life in California.”

California law forbids open carry in any county with a population of more than 200,000 people, a threshold that covers 95% of the population. In practice, however, it's a 100% ban. Technically, Californians in sparsely-populated counties are allowed to apply for a license to carry openly in their home county, but, as noted in the 98-page ruling, "California admits that it has no record of even one open-carry license being issued, and one potential reason is that California has misled its citizens about how to apply for an open-carry license." 

The sole judge in the minority, George W. Bush-appointed N. Randy Smith, said the ban passed constitutional muster because California lets residents carry concealed firearms, if they can get a permit. “A state may not prohibit the public carriage of firearms by eliminating both open and concealed carry, but a state can lawfully eliminate one manner of carry to protect and ensure the safety of its citizens, as long as they are able to carry in another manner,” he wrote in his dissent. 

The majority opinion skewered California's strained attempt to find some tangential way to characterize the open-carry ban as consistent with the "historical tradition of firearm regulation," and thus pass the Bruen test:   

"Open carry remains open carry, just as it was at the Founding. And concealed carry remains concealed carry, just as it was in 1791. To get around that reality, the analogical argument that California would have us adopt really boils down to the idea that today a state can ban all open carry because some other states regulated some other things at the Founding in some other ways. That is too sloppy a fit. Bruen requires a closer relationship between “how” and “why” a historical regulation burdened the right to bear arms and “how” and “why” a modern analogue burdens that right."  

The victory will likely be short-lived, according to Kostas Moros, Director of Legal Research and Education for the Second Amendment Foundation. "With near certainty, it will be en banc'd and reversed," Moros wrote in a thread on X in which he analyzed the ruling. Pointing to a previous, dubious ruling, he said, it's "hard to see how the Ninth Circuit would ever let this ruling stand." 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 19:15

USDA: Undercover Investigators To Make Sure Retailers Comply With New Food Stamp Restrictions

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USDA: Undercover Investigators To Make Sure Retailers Comply With New Food Stamp Restrictions

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Undercover investigators with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are going to check whether stores are complying with new restrictions on food stamps, the department said in a new notice to state and regional officials.

A woman walks by a sign advertising the acceptance of food stamps, in Miami, Fla., on Oct. 31, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The USDA’s Office of Retailer Operations and Compliance carries out federal oversight of retailers that accept funds from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), colloquially known as food stamps. The office “initiates and conducts undercover investigations to determine if a retailer is complying with program requirements,” the USDA said in the Dec. 30, 2025, notice.

Once new SNAP restrictions take effect in states, investigators “will incorporate attempts to purchase restricted items according to the state’s SNAP Food Restriction policy, beginning 90 days after the implementation date,” the notice states.

Retailers that are not in compliance will initially receive a warning letter advising corrective action. If retailers are found to be out of compliance again, then officials will revoke their authorization to keep accepting SNAP.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins in 2025 approved requests from 18 states to diverge from normal SNAP operations and impose various restrictions on which items participants can buy.

The first five states—Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Utah, and West Virginia—began restricting purchases on Jan. 1. The next restrictions take effect in Idaho, Louisiana, and Oklahoma in February. Restrictions in other states may not start until as late as Oct. 1.

Many of the states have targeted soda and other soft drinks. Some have barred SNAP funds from being used for energy drinks, candy, and prepared desserts.

Some 42 million Americans participate in SNAP. Eligibility is primarily based on household income.

Federal law says SNAP’s main purpose is to “safeguard the health and well-being of the Nation’s population by raising levels of nutrition among low-income households.”

The waivers “further that purpose, as part of broader state and federal government efforts to fight the obesity epidemic and Make America Healthy Again,” Patrick Penn, a USDA official, told state and regional officials in the new notice.

Each waiver has definitions of restricted items. Due to the varying definitions and implementation dates, close coordination between state agencies and retailers is needed, Penn said. Retailers have to take steps such as updating equipment and training employees.

Penn also said that the USDA plans to approve additional waivers in the future.

The Food Industry Association, whose members include retailers, said in a statement it appreciated that USDA clarified there is a 90-day grace period before the agency will enforce the new restrictions, and guidance from federal and state officials.

“While receiving this guidance and assurance of a 90-day grace period is critical, our members have additional questions and need assurance that ‘involuntary withdrawal’ following a second offense mentioned in the guidance will be limited to retailers knowingly and intentionally not following the restriction, not an accidental error on one of 21,000 or more products that must be coded as restricted in each state,” Jennifer Hatcher, an association officer, said.

The National Grocers Association, a trade group representing independent supermarkets, said in a statement on Dec. 22, 2025, that the waivers present challenges because they mean that SNAP funds can no longer be spent on tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of items.

That will force grocers to reprogram systems, track items, retrain workers, and talk to customers, the group said.

“These regulatory burdens have the potential to disrupt store operations and slow checkout lines as retailers work in good faith to implement and enforce the new rules,” the association said. “For SNAP reforms to Make America Healthy Again, policymakers must provide clear, consistent definitions and a realistic implementation timeline. Independent grocers are proud economic drivers, creating local jobs and generating tax revenue, but they need certainty and common sense, not more costly red tape handed down by bureaucrats.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 18:40

FT Exposes The Literal Definition Of Ponzi-Scheming In Private Equity

Zero Hedge -

FT Exposes The Literal Definition Of Ponzi-Scheming In Private Equity

In what can only be described as the financial industry's most brazen act of self-dealing since the last crisis, private equity giants are now openly selling assets to themselves at record pace, propping up their crumbling empire with a tactic that reeks of pure Ponzi desperation.

According to the Financial Times, roughly one-fifth of all private equity exits this year involved firms raising fresh cash from new suckers investors to buy portfolio companies from their own aging funds.

That's a sharp jump from the 12-13% seen in prior years, with Raymond James' Sunaina Sinha Haldea predicting a staggering $107 billion in these incestuous transactions for 2025, blowing past last year's $70 billion.

These so-called "continuation vehicles" let PE barons hand money back to restless limited partners in older funds while keeping control of the assets - and, crucially, resetting the clock on lucrative management fees and carried interest.

It's the ultimate have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too scam: cash out the old money, lock in the new money, and keep milking the same cow indefinitely.

"This year is set to break all records," Sinha Haldea crowed, calling it a "popular and effective win-win-win liquidity solution" in a market where real exits remain frozen.

Translation: when you can't find a greater fool outside your own circle, just invent a new fund and pass the hot potato internally.

Jefferies' Skip Fahrholz chimed in that global volume will hit close to $100 billion, confirming the feeding frenzy.

The FT reports the roster of perpetrators reads like a who's-who of the buyout racket: PAI Partners flipped part of its stake in ice cream giant Froneri (think Häagen-Dazs) to a continuation vehicle for the second time in a €15 billion-valued deal. Vista Equity, New Mountain Capital, and Inflexion all deployed multibillion-dollar continuation funds to cling to their crown-jewel investments rather than face the harsh light of public markets or genuine third-party buyers.

Even EQT's CEO Per Franzén, who hasn't yet dipped into this particular trough, recently admitted he wants in - purely to generate extra fees on existing holdings, naturally.

But beneath the sanitized industry spin lie the glaring conflicts: the same PE firm sits on both sides of the trade, deciding the price at which assets move from one of its pockets to another.

Pension funds and other LPs are rightly furious, fearing managers low-ball valuations to screw departing investors while setting themselves up for fat future carry on the "new" fund.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Council just sued U.S. firm Energy & Minerals Group over exactly this alleged grift: EMG tried to undervalue gas driller Ascent Resources in a self-sale that would have boosted its ownership and restarted fee collection.

The deal collapsed amid the lawsuit, and now outside bidders are circling.

What was once a last-resort lifeboat for dogs nobody wanted has morphed into a preferred tool for hoarding winning assets, all while the broader exit environment remains a graveyard.

Bain & Co's latest survey found nearly two-thirds of LPs still prefer old-fashioned exits—actual sales to outsiders or IPOs—over this circular money-shuffling charade.

Yet with no real buyers in sight, expect continuation vehicles to become the new normal: a glorified Ponzi mechanism dressed up in GP-LP alignment jargon, keeping the private equity bubble inflated just a little longer - until the music finally stops.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 18:05

Chinese EV Exports Are Exploding, And The West Has No Way To Stop Them

Zero Hedge -

Chinese EV Exports Are Exploding, And The West Has No Way To Stop Them

Authored by Michael Gauthier via carscoops.com,

  • Chinese EV exports are booming and were up 87% last month.

  • Mexico was the top export market in November with 19,344 units.

  • Over 600,000 Chinese EVs have been exported to Europe in 2025.

Chinese cars were once the butt of jokes, but they’ve become a major threat to Western automakers. That’s clear today as data from China’s General Administration of Customs has revealed exports of electric vehicles soared 87 percent in November.

That’s a huge increase compared to last year and the most popular destination in November was Mexico. Chinese EV exports to the country soared 2,367 percent to total 19,344 units. While the numbers don’t reveal which vehicles were responsible for the boost, the BYD Dolphin Mini has been a hit south of the border.

The small EV measures just 148.8 inches (3,780 mm) long and features a front-mounted motor developing 74 hp (55 kW / 75 PS) and 100 lb-ft (135 Nm) of torque. Customers can also get 30.1 and 38.8 kWh battery packs, which provide a NEDC range of up to 236 miles (380 km).

Mexico was followed by Indonesia and Thailand as the top markets for Chinese exports last month. The former country imported 17,503 vehicles, while the latter took in 13,517.

Focusing on Europe, exports to the UK soared 113 percent last month to 9,096. This means 121,555 Chinese EVs have arrived since the beginning of the year and this is an increase of 24 percent .

That pales in comparison to Belgium, where 195,309 Chinese EVs have been imported in the first 11 months of the year. However, it’s worth noting this is a 15 percent drop compared to 2024.

Where Most Chinese EVs Are Going

Asia remained the biggest market for Chinese EVs as exports climbed 71 percent to 110,061 units in November. They were followed by Europe and Latin America (including the Caribbean).

While Asian countries have imported nearly 1 million Chinese EVs through November, the big story is Europe’s 604,105. That’s 12 percent more than 2024 and the number shows why European automakers and politicians are so worried.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 17:30

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