Kalshi, Polymarket Face Trading Halt In Nevada After Court Rulings

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Two US federal court rulings have increased the risk that Nevada regulators may seek to halt prediction-market trading in the state after a judge sent a dispute involving Polymarket’s parent company Blockratize and Kalshi back to state court in two separate rulings.

A federal judge rejected arguments that US regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fully preempts state gaming laws for prediction markets, according to a Monday order.

The judge found that the CEA’s savings clause does not completely displace state authority and that the companies had not shown a basis to block Nevada’s action at this stage.

The decision means the Nevada Gaming Control Board can continue pursuing its civil enforcement case in state court, where it could seek an injunction restricting Nevada residents from accessing event contracts offered by Polymarket or Kalshi.

Court filing in the case of Nevada vs. prediction markets. Source: Courtlistener.com

In response to the ruling, Polymarket’s parent company submitted a motion to request a brief administrative stay of the court’s remand order, the filing shows.

The motion is a legal request seeking to freeze a court ruling or enforcement action seen as a short-term emergency measure.

Prediction markets face mounting pressure after Nevada ruling: Lawyer

The Nevada decision comes as prediction markets face mounting pressure from state regulators, including Kalshi, which has been fighting Nevada’s gaming regulator since 2025.

On Tuesday, a federal judge also remanded Nevada’s civil enforcement action against Kalshi back to state court, exposing Kalshi to an “imminent temporary restraining order” barring it from offering event contracts in the state, according to a court filing seen by sports betting and gaming-focused lawyer Daniel Wallach.

“The ruling could embolden other states to sue Kalshi in state court and seek injunctions to block event contracts, a strategy that has so far succeeded in every case brought,” wrote Wallach, in a Tuesday X post.

Source: Daniel Wallach

Kalshi sued the state of Nevada in March 2025 after receiving a cease-and-desist order to halt all sports-related betting markets within the state.

However, in February, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi’s bid to stop Nevada’s gaming regulator from taking action on its sports event contracts.

Insider trading concerns add to scrutiny

The legal fight is unfolding as prediction markets draw scrutiny over information advantage and potential insider activity.

Suspected insider wallets netted $1.2 million by betting on the outcome of blockchain sleuth ZachXBT’s investigation into Axiom, Cointelegraph reported on Friday.

ZachXBT released the much-anticipated investigation on Thursday, alleging that Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others had been responsible for insider trading activity since early 2025.

Top wallets betting on Axiom in ZachXBT’s insider exposé. Source: Dune

Insider trading concerns were first highlighted in January after a Polymarket account profited $400,000 after it placed a bet on a contract predicting that Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro would be captured, wagering the funds just hours before US forces captured him during a military operation.

Earlier in February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two people suspected of using secret information related to Israel striking Iran for insider trading on Polymarket.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 14:25

Blackstone Launching Public Vehicle for Data Center Acquisitions

Amid overwhelming redemptions in other funds, Blackstone is preparing a publicly traded acquisition company dedicated to data centers, opening the door for “mom and pop" to jump into the AI boom, just as the market is panicking over who will find the trillions in data center spending over the next several years

Bloomberg reported that the vehicle’s focus is on already-built and leased facilities, allowing rapid deployment amid surging hyperscaler demand.

The new entity will initially raise capital from sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors before broadening access, with plans to gather tens of billions overall. This structure positions the vehicle as a direct player alongside REITs such as Digital Realty and Equinix, while leveraging Blackstone’s established scale in the sector.

Blackstone has emerged as the world’s largest data center owner following its 2021 privatization of QTS Realty Trust in a deal valued at roughly $10 billion. Since then, QTS’s leased capacity has expanded 14-fold. Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said the “historic pace of investment” to develop AI is the “key driver of economic growth today and is creating an enormous need for capital solutions.”

The timing aligns with accelerating shifts in commercial real estate. Just last week, we detailed the ongoing AI takeover with server-farm projects now outpacing traditional office builds nationwide for the first time ever.

AI Takeover Complete: Data Center Construction Surpasses Office Construction For The First Time https://t.co/g5WxE9glY3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 27, 2026

There was also a recent meeting at the White House between some of the heads of major tech companies and President Trump who pledged their data centers won't boost electricity bills.

*TRUMP: TELLING BIG TECH THEY NEED TO PROVIDE THEIR OWN POWER

*TRUMP: NEGOTIATED NEW RATE PAYER PLEDGE ON DATA CENTER ENERGY

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 25, 2026

For retail investors, the vehicle offers exposure to the “picks and shovels” of AI without needing to pick individual tech winners. Blackstone’s track record with QTS suggests strong underlying fundamentals, but broader challenges persist around power availability and potential construction delays. The recent report from MacroEdge shows January 2026 already setting records for data center cancellations and postponements. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 14:05

Trump Accepts White House Correspondents' Dinner Invitation For First Time

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he will attend the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner for the first time as president, after declining to attend during his initial term in office due to his view that the majority of the media is unfairly biased against him. The president also did not attend in 2025, the first year of his second presidential term.

“The White House Correspondents Association has asked me, very nicely, to be the Honoree at this year’s Dinner, a long and storied tradition since it began in 1924, under then President Calvin Coolidge,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“In honor of our Nation’s 250th Birthday, and the fact that these ‘Correspondents’ now admit that I am truly one of the Greatest Presidents in the History of our Country, the G.O.A.T., according to many, it will be my Honor to accept their invitation, and work to make it the GREATEST, HOTTEST, and MOST SPECTACULAR DINNER, OF ANY KIND, EVER!”

Trump criticized the press and its coverage of him in his acceptance, pointing to it as a reason for his absence from past events.

“Because the Press was extraordinarily bad to me, FAKE NEWS ALL, right from the beginning of my First Term, I boycotted the event, and never went as Honoree,” he wrote. “However, I look forward to being with everyone this year. Hopefully, it will be something very special.”

The annual dinner, which celebrates the First Amendment, is set to take place on April 25 at the Washington Hilton, outside of which John Hinckley Jr. attempted to assassinate President Ronald Reagan in 1981.

Trump was the first president to skip the event since Ronald Reagan in 1981, who was recovering from the assassination attempt at the time.

The event also serves as a fundraiser for journalism scholarships and awards.

The WHCA announced last week that mentalist and mind-reader Oz Pearlman would entertain at the event.

“For more than 100 years, the journalists of the White House Correspondents’ Association have enjoyed an evening with the president, a dinner that celebrates the First Amendment while supporting the work we do including awards honoring excellent journalism and scholarships to help the next generation of reporters who someday will be the ones asking the questions at the White House,” WHCA President Weijia Jiang, a CBS News correspondent, stated in a response to Trump’s acceptance.

The dinner started in 1924 during the presidency of Calvin Coolidge. The president and a comedian or entertainer generally make remarks, often roasting political figures and the media.

Trump made headlines in 2016 when he roasted his campaign opponent Hillary Clinton ahead of Election Day at the annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 13:45

Voters Head To Polls In First 2026 Primary Election: What To Know

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Today, voters in Texas and North Carolina will cast their ballots in the first major contested primary elections of the 2026 midterm elections.

The elections in the two states have high stakes for the control of Congress in 2027.

The Texas Senate primaries for both parties have become some of the most closely watched in the nation, as Democrats vie for an upset victory over the GOP nominee in the general election.

In North Carolina, meanwhile, Republican candidates are facing off for their party’s nominations in a district redrawn to favor the GOP.

Here’s what to know.

Texas Republican Primary

While both parties are investing substantial resources and attention toward the race to be the Lone Star state’s next senator, Republicans enter the race with a strong advantage after President Donald Trump won the state by more than 14 points in 2024.

The incumbent in the race, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), is facing one of the toughest primary challenges of his career from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is also seeking the Republican nomination.

Political analysts and betting markets largely view Paxton and Cornyn as the leading contenders.

Paxton entered the race earlier this year, carrying lingering fallout from past controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal by the Texas Senate. Framing the contest in ideological terms, Paxton has cast the race as a showdown between his brand of populist “America First” conservatism and what he describes as the establishment politics embodied by Cornyn.

Cornyn, meanwhile, has characterized the primary as a referendum on character, pointing to Paxton’s impeachment proceedings and other legal issues. At a recent campaign event, Cornyn accused Paxton of a “scandal-plagued career” and warned that he could be a “dead weight” on the ballot.

Paxton currently holds a 3.8 lead over Cornyn in RealClearPolitics polling averages.

Trump has yet to say which candidate he will endorse but has expressed his appreciation for both.

Texas Democratic Primary

Given the historically favorable national political environment for the party of the opposition in the midterm elections, Democrats are hoping for a long-shot win in the Lone Star State’s Senate election this year.

Texas state Rep. James Talarico led the pack of potential Democratic nominees, though polls show the possibility of a close race with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who entered the race on Oct. 8 last year.

Talarico rose to prominence during the redistricting battle this summer as Texas Republicans voted to add five Republican districts to the state’s congressional map. The former seminarian has gained national media and online attention for his Christian-focused messaging.

Crockett has become well-known for her heated questions during hearings on Capitol Hill.

Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) had been running but ended his bid for the nomination after Crockett announced her candidacy.

According to recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Talarico is leading Crockett by 4.5 percent.

In hypothetical polling match-ups, surveys said Talarico would be advantaged in a race against Paxton, but is disfavored if Republicans select Cornyn as their nominee.

Meanwhile, polling currently has Crockett at a disadvantage against either of the major Republican candidates.

The primary race will be held on March 3, and any runoff races are scheduled for May 26.

North Carolina’s 1st District Republican Primary

In North Carolina’s First Congressional District, Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is running for reelection in a district that was redrawn through redistricting.

Davis won a second term in 2024 by less than 2 percent, becoming one of 13 House Democrats to win elections in districts won by Trump. He’s criticized the new boundaries for his districts, which now favor Republicans.

He faces no opposition in the Democratic primary, while five Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination.

Among them is Army veteran and former Trump administration official Laurie Buckhout, who is seeking a rematch after narrowly losing to Davis in 2024.

State Sen. Bobby Hanig, former sheriff Asa Buck, and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse are other political notables in the district seeking the nomination.

Rounding out the GOP field is attorney and small-business owner Ashley-Nicole Russell.

North Carolina’s 11th District Democratic Primary

In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, five Democrats are competing in the primary for the opportunity to take on incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.).

Although Edwards won reelection comfortably in 2024, Democrats are hoping to win enough support to flip the seat in the upcoming election.

The Democratic field includes farmer Jamie Ager, educator and advocate Zelda Briarwood, physician Richard Hudspeth, cancer researcher and professor Paul Maddox, and civil engineer Lee Whipple.

Ager is centering his campaign on lowering everyday costs, expanding access to health care, advancing immigration reform, and strengthening public safety. An internal Democratic poll shared with Newsweek shows Ager leading Edwards by 1 percentage point.

Briarwood is advocating for increased investment in rural health care, expanding Medicaid, limiting private equity ownership of residential housing, and making community college tuition-free.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 13:05

Drone Strikes On Amazon Data Centers In Middle East Reveal Urgent Need To Defend AI

For the first time in modern warfare, Iranian kamikaze drones struck commercial data centers in the Middle East operated by Amazon. This marks a major escalation in the targeting of civilian digital infrastructure.

Amazon wrote on its website that three Middle East data centers were hit by Iranian drones, causing widespread outages at Amazon Web Services facilities tied to the "ongoing conflict in the Middle East."

"These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage," the company said in a post on Monday on AWS's health dashboard. 

Operations in the Middle East remain "significantly impaired," AWS said, noting that "customers are experiencing elevated error rates and degraded availability for services."

The entire 'bomb the data center' incident led us to write a note on Monday morning titled, "Modern Warfare Sees First Drone Strike on a Commercial Data Center." This marks a first in a world where Morgan Stanley's Vishwanath Tirupattur recently forecasted that $3 trillion in global data center spending will occur through 2028. Translation: there's a massive security gap in defending data centers from aerial threats. 

We first outlined the theme in a late January note titled "Explosion in AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security."

Our view at the time was:

Wall Street analysts largely end their analysis at the financing and construction of next-generation data centers, with limited discussion regarding the modern security architecture required once these facilities are built and become instant high-value targets for non-state actors or foreign adversaries; traditional perimeter measures such as metal chainlink fencing and standard surveillance systems are rendered useless in the world of emerging AI threats, including coordinated autonomous drone or swarm-based attacks enabled by advances in AI and low-cost unmanned systems.

The key takeaway is that Wall Street analysts and data center developers have just received a major wake-up call: trillions of dollars in planned data center buildouts will require next-generation security, including high-tech counter-drone detection, tracking, and kinetic interception systems. This follows the Ukraine war and other recent modern battlefields, which have sparked the hyper-development of cheap, dual-use, consumer-grade drones that can be mass-produced at a fraction of the cost of traditional air-delivered munitions. We said weeks ago, this proliferation of drones and AI kill chains has given readers a glimpse of the 2030s battlefield.

Our view is that Wall Street will now begin searching for "war unicorns" specializing in counter-threat systems, whether in detection, electronic warfare, or kinetic defenses, as the world appears increasingly unstable and the need to harden critical data center infrastructure against FPV and other drone threats becomes a national security threat. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 12:45

Zelensky Warns Iran War Could Starve Ukraine Of Critical US Arms

This isn't the first time the world's attention has shifted away from the Ukraine war, but it certainly marks the biggest other conflict to erupt throughout the four-year long war in Eastern Europe.

Every time there is a 'distraction' - President Zelensky takes pains to try and refocus attention on Kiev's plight, quite naturally. At a moment the depth of American arms supplies and ammo stockpiles are in question given the rate of expenditure in the new Iran war, the Ukrainians are rather nervous to say the least.

Zelensky has freshly warned that deeper US involvement in the conflict with Iran could disrupt the steady flow of American weapons that Ukraine depends on in its war against Russia. Of course, Ukraine was issuing desperate pleas for more arms and ammo even long before Trump's Operation Epic Fury kicked off.

via Reuters

On slowed arms flows, he said as quoted in WSJ:

“We understand that a long war–if it is long–and the intensity of the military actions will affect the amount of air defense we receive," Zelensky told reporters on Monday, according to audio of his remarks published by Ukrainian media.

Zelensky said he spoke to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the issue of weapons supplies to Ukraine, and was in contact with other allies. So far, he added, there are no signs of any delays.

“Everyone understands that, for us, this is a matter of life,” Zelensky said of the arms Ukraine receives through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL, a program European allies use to purchase weapons from the U.S. for Ukraine.

But then again America's Gulf allies, who are also desperate for anti-air replenishment, consider this moment a matter of life and death too.

WSJ notes further, "Ukraine has said it desperately needs PAC-3 interceptor missiles for the Patriot systems supplied by the U.S."

Further, "The U.S. has been using its own Patriot systems to protect U.S. military bases and the airspace of allied countries in the Middle East from Iranian retaliatory strikes."

So it seems like Zelensky's arms wish list will be further delayed - not for lack of money, but simply based on rate of slow replenishment, but mostly Washington's new conflict theatre priority: Iran and the Gulf. What's worse is that the war is already threatening expansion across the whole Mideast region, as the conflict spreads to Lebanon.

Still, Ukraine has come out in favor of Trump's strike on Iran, given especially that Russia uses Iranian suicide drones in the Ukraine conflict, and has from nearly the start.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 12:15

"I'd Be Angry, Too": Jamie Dimon Says Trump Debanking Suit Has No Merit, Then Rails Debanking Practices

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that Donald Trump’s $5 billion lawsuit over the closure of his accounts “has no merit,” but added, “They have the right to be angry. I’d be angry, too.”

Trump claims JPMorgan and other banks shut his accounts for political reasons, according to CNBC. Dimon said banks are often “forced” to debank clients due to legal and regulatory pressures tied to reputational risk. “We debank people because it causes legal, regulatory risk for us,” he said, noting it’s easier for banks to avoid that risk.

Trump sued JPMorgan and Dimon in January, part of a broader legal campaign that also includes claims against Capital One, media outlets, and the IRS. JPMorgan has acknowledged closing dozens of Trump-related accounts after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

“But I agree with them,” Dimon said during an interview in Miami. “Like, why is a bank allowed to do that?”

CNBC writes that though no single law mandates dropping clients over reputational concerns, regulations make serving certain customers risky. The case puts Dimon in a delicate spot as banks begin benefiting from deregulation under Trump appointees.

“There are a lot of misunderstandings here,” Dimon said. “Hopefully the law will change, and hopefully it’ll get sorted out.”

Recall, President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon, claiming the banking giant debanked him for political reasons. 

The lawsuit was filed in January in a Miami state court by his attorney, Alejandro Brito, on behalf of Trump and several of his hospitality companies. 

The complaint cites JPMorgan's code of conduct, which reads: "We set high expectations and hold ourselves accountable. We do the right thing—not necessarily the easy or expedient thing. We abide by the letter and spirit of the laws and regulations everywhere we do business and have zero tolerance for unethical behavior."

According to Brito, "Despite claiming to hold these principles dear, JPMC violated them by unilaterally—and without warning or remedy—terminating several of Plaintiff’s bank accounts."

Trump and his companies have "transacted hundreds of millions of dollars" through the bank, the lawsuit reads, adding that Feb. 19, 2021 was the day that "forever altered the dynamic of the parties’ relationship," when the bank allegedly "without warning or provocation," notified Trump and his companies that several of their bank accounts or were beneficiaries of, "would be closed just two months later, on April 19, 2021."

"JPMC did not provide plaintiffs with any recourse, remedy, or alternative—its decision was final and unequivocal," reads the suit. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 11:30

More Bark Than Bite: Kaine's War Powers Resolution Is An 'Imminent' Failure

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We now have a glimpse of the War Powers Resolution promised by Sen. Tim Kaine (D., Va.), which is reportedly scheduled for a vote in the Senate today or Wednesday. The resolution purportedly ends all combat operations against Iran … until you reach the very end where there is a hole that you could drive a combat task force through.

I respect members asserting their inherent constitutional authority. I have long criticized the lack of declarations of war as demanded by the Framers. We have not had a formal declaration of war since World War II. However, courts and Congress have long deferred to presidents in the conduct of such operations.

I represented congressional members challenging the Libyan war operation launched by President Barack Obama. Most Democratic members were entirely silent when Obama (and President Joe Biden) exercised such authority against different countries. Notably, the Libyan operation clearly sought regime change without an imminent threat to the United States. Some of those members are now the loudest condemning President Donald Trump in this operation.

This resolution shows how presidents can easily box in Congress once combat operations begin.

The resolution boldly declares “Congress hereby directs the President to terminate the use of United States Armed Forces for hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran or any part of its government or military.”

However, at the very end, the resolution has this line: “Nothing in this section shall be construed to prevent the United States from defending itself from imminent attack.”

As I wrote this week, the problem with such resolutions is that they are effectively meaningless in the context of full combat operations against a nation: “Kaine and others insist that hostilities were not imminent when we attacked. Even if that were true, they are now.”

In these circumstances, it would be nearly impossible to limit the war powers of the President without putting American personnel or allies at risk.  After decapitating the leadership in Iran, Iranian assets are clearly operating under prior orders in a decentralized structure. The United States is now seeking to neutralize any assets that it can find in preemptive attacks while trying further to degrade the command structure and military capacity of the Iranian government.

As I wrote earlier:

“The choice now for Democrats is either a senseless or suicidal resolution. It can either resolve to end hostilities as soon as practically possible (an objective already stated by the Administration) or it can actually seek to limit the Administration’s options amid full-fledged war.”

This is the senseless option. All threats from Iran are now “imminent,” and all attacks are arguably preemptive. So what does this actually do?

Here is the resolution: Iran War Powers Resolution

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 11:10

OpenAI Rewrites 'Sloppy' Pentagon AI Deal After Backlash Over Surveillance Risks

OpenAI - which millions of users trust with everything from legal documents to tax returns - is revising its newly signed contract with the US Department of War, just days after it was announced that they would replace Anthropic for use in government systems because the rushed rollout "looked opportunistic and sloppy." 

Hours after negotiations collapsed between the Pentagon and rival startup Anthropic on Friday, the San Francisco-based company agreed to supply its AI models for use in classified military operations. The breakdown followed talks with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over how the government could deploy advanced AI tools.

OpenAI initially described its agreement as containing "more guardrails than any previous agreement for classified AI deployments, including Anthropic’s." But on Monday, CEO Sam Altman said the company was working with the department to add explicit contractual language barring the intentional use of its systems for domestic surveillance of U.S. persons or nationals.

"The AI system shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of US persons and nationals," Altman said the revised terms would state, adding that intelligence agencies such as the National Security Agency would be excluded from the deal for now.

So - while OpenAI has likely bought some legal cover with these changes, there's always the possibility of unintentional use. 

From a Monday update to OpenAI's statement on the deal: 

Throughout our discussions, the Department made clear it shares our commitment to ensuring our tools will not be used for domestic surveillance. To make our principles as clear as possible, we worked together to add additional language to our agreement. 

This language makes explicit that our tools will not be used to conduct domestic surveillance of U.S. persons, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information. The Department also affirmed that our services will not be used by Department of War intelligence agencies like the NSA. Any services to those agencies would require a new agreement. 

The new language reads:

• Consistent with applicable laws, including the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution, National Security Act of 1947, FISA Act of 1978, the AI system shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of U.S. persons and nationals.
• For the avoidance of doubt, the Department understands this limitation to prohibit deliberate tracking, surveillance, or monitoring of U.S. persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information.

The Department of War plans to convene a working group made up of leaders from the frontier AI labs, cloud providers, and the Department’s policy and operational communities. OpenAI will participate and expect this will be an important forum for ongoing dialogue on emerging AI capabilities, privacy, and national security challenges going forward. 

These updates build on the framework we announced last week and we hope will help create a pathway for other labs to work with the Department going forward.

* * *

Guardrails, Technical Controls and Legal Debate

OpenAI says it can uphold its own red lines through a mix of contractual provisions and technical controls. The company says it will deploy models via cloud access rather than installing them directly onto military hardware and will keep its personnel involved in the loop. It has reiterated that its technology cannot be used to direct autonomous weapons systems.

Altman suggested the company was comfortable relying in part on existing law. “Anthropic seemed more focused on specific prohibitions in the contract, rather than citing applicable laws, which we felt comfortable with,” he said Saturday.

But by Monday, he acknowledged concerns about how AI systems could enable large-scale data gathering.

“We shouldn’t have rushed to get this out on Friday. The issues are super complex, and demand clear communication,” Altman wrote in a message to employees reposted on X. “We were genuinely trying to de-escalate things and avoid a much worse outcome, but I think it just looked opportunistic and sloppy.”

The updated language would “prohibit deliberate tracking, surveillance or monitoring of US persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information,” according to the company.

Fallout From Anthropic’s Collapse

The Pentagon’s pivot to OpenAI came after Anthropic’s negotiations unraveled over two core red lines articulated by its CEO, Dario Amodei: no domestic mass surveillance and no use of AI in lethal autonomous weapons systems - and would require the Pentagon to seek approval to use it in the heat of battle.

According to the Financial Times, Hegseth sought language permitting the models for "all lawful use." Anthropic executives argued existing U.S. law could allow mass AI-enabled data collection and pressed for tighter contractual safeguards until new legislation was enacted. Discussions reportedly stalled over terms governing the mass collection of publicly available data.

The Pentagon had signaled openness to revising phrasing that Anthropic viewed as overly broad, and senior figures at the company believed a deal was close. But negotiations ultimately fell apart.

Since then, the Trump administration has moved aggressively against Anthropic. President Donald Trump has directed agencies to phase out the company’s tools. The Treasury Department, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all announced they would end Anthropic contracts - with full dis-integration to occur within six months. The Pentagon also designated the company a supply chain risk.

Employee Dissent and Public Protest

The deal has triggered unrest inside OpenAI and across the broader tech sector. Employees have voiced concerns internally and on social media, according to people familiar with the matter. Nearly 900 workers at OpenAI and Google signed an open letter urging leadership to refuse government demands for domestic mass surveillance or autonomous killing capabilities.

Over the weekend, chalk graffiti appeared outside OpenAI’s San Francisco office reading “NO TO MASS SURVEILLANCE” and urging staff to “Do the right thing!”

The controversy has also spilled into the consumer market. Anthropic’s chatbot, Claude, briefly climbed above ChatGPT in Apple’s App Store rankings, according to Sensor Tower data, amid calls online for users to delete ChatGPT.

Miles Brundage, OpenAI’s former head of policy research, publicly criticized the company’s handling of the negotiations, writing that employees’ “default assumption” should be that OpenAI “caved + framed it as not caving,” though he acknowledged the organization is complex and that some staff worked toward what they considered a fair outcome.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 10:50

Regime Change Will Not Be Easy: Tehran's Goal Is To Survive By Any Means Necessary

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

My Circus! My Monkeys!

Europe was hit with the first strike to its energy supply chain after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and had to start diversifying its inflows from elsewhere. Now that Middle Eastern LNG is losing reliability, Europe might have to get involved just to keep the lights on.

While the EU and UK would probably be more than happy to spectate from the proverbial “monitoring chair,” they may not have a choice. TTF prices reached highs of - €48.95/MWh yesterday—the highest since February of 2025- and are up more than 20% today. 

QatarEnergy announced that it has ceased production of LNG and associated products due to the recent escalation. Our Energy Strategists, Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura, note that we could see prices return to 2022 levels should Qatar be taken out of the LNG equation entirely (easily back to €100/MWh). Read more here.

This puts the entire European energy complex at risk and might be just the incentive needed for Europe to get out of the monitoring chair and into the ring.

France24 reports that “France, Germany, UK ready to take ‘defensive action’ against Iran.” As the EU touts commitments to increase defense spending and build up its military capabilities, Rabobank Global Strategist Michael Every has mused, “why have all these war planes sitting on the tarmac not doing anything?”

A little farther south, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is considering its own involvement. Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said on X that “neither the interests of the United States nor the cause of global peace are well served by this. I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war.” But the GCC has made it clear that they don’t want it to be their war either. Threats to the economies of the Gulf are not just about energy—this also impacts their budding tourism and hospitality industries as few want to vacation in an active warzone. The UAE and Qatar have reportedly been lobbying allies to end this war as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, in a statement, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed “its full solidarity with and unwavering support for the brotherly countries, and its readiness to place all its capabilities at their disposal in support of any measures they may undertake. It also warns of the grave consequence resulting from the continued violation of states’ sovereignty and the principles of international law.” As much as the GCC may want to stay out of it (or, at least as far out of it as they can when their territory is being striked by Iranian drones), the Saudis, at least, are prepared to escalate further.

Trump and Hegseth have not shown any signs of backing down just yet. Early yesterday morning, Hegseth affirmed that “Iran is not a regime change war, but the regime did change,” and that the war will be finished “on America-first conditions.” What those conditions are is still TBD. And the ambiguity of those conditions still leaves us with the question of what constitutes a win.

Hegseth and Rubio would tell you that the aim is the same as last time—to set back Iran’s nuclear proliferation program. But as we saw recently, it doesn’t take Iran very long before they can start to rebuild capacity. The best way to cut off nuclear proliferation is to cut off the head, and that necessitates regime change.

However, as noted in yesterday’s installment, regime change will not be easy. The goal of Tehran is to survive by any means necessary. Even if the regime is rendered a shell of what it once was, but manages to hang on by a thread, then the US has failed. While Trump has announced that this military operation could take weeks and Hegseth rejected the idea that this would be another endless war to echo Iraq and Afghanistan, this may still be a much longer ride than expected.

Yesterday’s stellar performance of USD also exemplified how calls of “Sell America” in recent months were shortsighted. While USD has not been behaving as a safe-haven traditionally would, given the dramatic USD sell-off in H1 2025, we have long argued that this was more about positioning—a repricing of EUR/USD in the aftermath of European announcement of defense spending, and rising USD hedge ratios from foreign investors—than it was a loss of USD’s safe haven status. Indeed, recent price action makes it clear that when the going gets rough, investors still flee  to the warm embrace of greenback liquidity.

Still, other US assets have not felt the love. The inflationary risks posed by an extensive war with Iran are at front of mind for investors, especially as analysts keep a watchful eye on the strait of Hormuz. Even though the Fed prefers to look at core inflation, which strips out direct energy costs, energy is an input into everything, including core goods and services. While inflation is already above the 2% target, and the lagged effects of tariffs are starting to put pressure on core goods, the additional price increases posed by turning the major oil exporter of the world into a warzone may put the Fed in a tricky position. US 2 year and 10 year Treasury yields moved in parallel, closing the day up 11bp, which is the greatest single day move since the US-Iranian skirmish last June.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 10:30

China Panics, Urges Ceasefire To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz As Beijing Is Addicted To Cheap Iranian Crude

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at Tuesday's regular press briefing in Beijing that all parties in the Iran conflict must ensure the safe transit of commercial shipping through the critical maritime energy chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

"China urges all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid escalating tensions, and safeguard the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," spokeswoman Ning said.

We've briefed readers that China is heavily exposed to cheap Iranian crude exports. About 80% of Iran's oil exports - about 1.6 million barrels per day - go to China.

While prices are fungible, the biggest loser from a Hormuz closure in terms of actual physical oil is China which is the main destination of the 13.1mm barrels of oil that passes through the Strait every day https://t.co/FwWVsHiwpZ pic.twitter.com/ozXwXpo2El

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 1, 2026

This means Beijing will do everything in its power to preserve this lifeline and remove any blockage in Hormuz.

And this. 

Chinese officials have reportedly been pressing Iran not to disrupt tanker traffic, damage Qatari gas exports, or hit major export hubs, according to Bloomberg.

The latest AIS shipping tracking data via Bloomberg shows the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander threatening fire and destruction to any ship that transits the narrow waterway.

Our latest reporting shows that a day after a reported Iranian drone strike forced Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery offline, there are numerous reports of drone strikes on critical Gulf energy infrastructure on Tuesday morning (read report).

We highly recommend that readers review a report titled "The Iran Question Is All About China" to better understand that this conflict extends well beyond Iran.

Looking ahead, top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are expected to meet in mid-March, according to Bloomberg, ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit later this month. Trump's moves against Venezuela and now Iran can be viewed as an effort to tighten pressure on two of Beijing's cheap crude supplies before those talks (that's if those talks don't get canceled).

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 10:10

The post A Real Abundance Agenda Starts by Rolling Back Patent and Copyright Monopolies appeared first on CEPR.

 

I always have fun chatting with Paulie. I always find it amusing to be on the other side of the mic.

He wanted to discuss AI and markets in light of the Citrini Research post that caused such a fuss. He always asks thoughtful questions, and it was a fascinating conversation with Paul Krugman about Artificial Intelligence, Tariffs, and all sorts of fun stuff (and I got to teach him a few AI tricks).

Paulie the K’s public persona and who he is as a person are very far apart. He is a gentle soul, and widely misunderstood.

Full transcript here

 

The post Paul Krugman in Conversation with Barry Ritholtz appeared first on The Big Picture.

Britain Reconsiders 78% North Sea Oil Tax As Investment Slows

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

The UK may be quietly inching toward an awkward admission: the windfall tax experiment on oil and gas has been a flop.

The Treasury is holding talks with North Sea oil and gas producers about potentially scrapping the Energy Profits Levy before its scheduled 2030 expiry, according to people familiar with the discussions. After multiple extensions and rate hikes, the levy has pushed the sector’s headline tax burden to 78% - a level producers argue borders on confiscatory, and a level critics argue borders on ridiculosity.

The EPL was introduced in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil and gas prices soaring. Back then, it was framed as a temporary measure to capture extraordinary profits and ease pressure on households. But prices have since cooled, while the tax has lingered and grown.

Under current rules, the levy can end early if six-month average oil and gas prices fall below preset thresholds of $78.65 per barrel and 61 pence per therm for 2026–2027. Otherwise, it runs through March 2030.

There has been anticipated industry pushback. Offshore Energies UK has warned that the levy risks long-term damage to domestic production. Harbour Energy saw nearly all of its 2022 profits evaporate under the expanded tax regime, forcing it to cut jobs and shelve projects. BP and Shell have publicly reviewed UK investment plans. TotalEnergies trimmed spending.

Politically, it’s a minefield. Labour must juggle climate goals with energy security, jobs, and the rising pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has pledged to scrap the levy outright. Meanwhile, the Greens want it made permanent, and the Scottish National Party argues that it threatens tens of thousands of North Sea jobs.

Then comes the strategic backdrop. The UK’s grid operator and the state-owned system operator have both warned that shrinking domestic production could increase reliance on imports and leave the country more exposed to supply shocks.

For the UK Continental Shelf, some are left to wonder if the levy quietly accelerated decline in a basin already fighting gravity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 03:30

Macron Throws Out French Nuclear Policy Over Russia And China Threats

President Emmanuel Macron on Monday broke several decades of French nuclear taboos, promising to increase the country's arsenal and positioning France for a lead role in European security.  Macron also called for the deployment of French nuclear capable aircraft to allied nations (which could potentially include Ukraine).  The new policies are some of the most significant changes in French nuclear doctrine since the end of the Cold War.

“Today, a new phase in French deterrence may therefore be taking shape. We are embarking on what I would call forward deterrence,” the French president said. That means increasingly including European countries in France's deterrent - starting with participation in nuclear drills. 

“It will ultimately provide for the circumstantial deployments of elements of our strategic air forces to allied countries," Macron added, referring to the squadrons of nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets.

Macron cites threats from Russian and China as reasons for the decision. His announcement comes only a week after Russian Intelligence claimed they had uncovered a British and French plot to provide Ukraine with relevant European components and equipment that would then be misrepresented to the world as proof of a domestically developed nuclear program. This also allegedly included a plan to give Ukraine at least one actual warhead and/or materials for a dirty bomb.

It may be that there was some truth to this report and now France is simply abandoning clandestine strategies and implementing nuclear plans out in the open.  The Kremlin has warned that any presence of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would result in a direct military response to European suppliers.  They say this could include a nuclear response.

French political analysts note that Macron and his leftist political compatriots may be attempting to lock France into military action before the next presidential elections in 2027, so that new leadership will be unable to reverse course.  In other words, conservatives in France are gaining significant ground due to mass immigration issues and the leftist establishment is hoping to embed military forces in Ukraine before they lose power in government.  

Macron argued to qualify nuclear proliferation in his speech while standing at a podium in front of a nuclear submarine.  The statements came off as empty posturing, but the implications are still broad.

"Whoever wants to be free must be feared. Whoever wants to be feared must be strong...To be free, we have to be feared."

France is, of course, not free.  The government has arrested and jailed numerous citizens in the past few years over online posts that violate the country's leftist "hate speech" laws.  This mostly involves punishing people for speaking out against mass immigration.  This is why Macron's strategy to bolster French military strength is unlikely to gain popular traction - Most young French people have no interest in dying for a government that wants to replace them with third world migrants.

Critics of the NATO handling of Ukraine have predicted that Europe has no intention of pursuing peace with Russia. Rather, they believe that European elites are seeking to trigger a wider war with Russia and drag the US into the middle of it.  The Trump Administration has been reticent rattle sabers over Ukraine and its peace proposals have been consistently thwarted by European leaders. 

Russian forces in the region continue to gain ground and Ukrainian troop strength is dwindling.  It would appear that the Europeans have decided to escalate rather than accept any agreement that would result in ceding territory to Vladimir Putin.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 02:45

Trump Says He's 'Disappointed' by Starmer For Blocking Use Of Diego Garcia For Iran Strikes

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. President Donald Trump said he was disappointed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s refusal to use the joint UK–U.S. military base on Diego Garcia island to strike Iran.

A US Air Force weapons loader delivers a 2,000lbs bomb for loading into a B1 bomber at the Diego Garcia base, UK, on 22 Oct. 2001. USAF/DOD/AFP via Getty Images

In an interview with The Telegraph, published on March 2, Trump said that Starmer’s initial refusal to let Washington use the Chagos Islands base was unlike anything that had “happened between our countries before.”

Starmer confirmed late on March 1 that the UK had initially decided not to take part in U.S. strikes against Iran, but said the security situation had changed as Iranian actions began threatening British personnel and interests in the region.

“We have British jets in the air as part of coordinated defensive operations which have already successfully intercepted Iranian strikes,” Starmer said. “But the only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source – in their storage depots or the launchers which used to fire the missiles.”

Starmer said that he would now allow the United States “to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose.”

Trump said it “took far too long” for Starmer to change his mind.

“It sounds like he was worried about the legality,” he said.

The base on Diego Garcia is regarded by the United States as one of its most strategically important military hubs. Located roughly 2,300 to 2,400 miles from the southern coast of Iran, it allows long-range bomber and naval operations across the Middle East, East Africa, and the Indo-Pacific.

In a Feb. 18 post on Truth Social, Trump warned that the facility could become critical if tensions with Iran escalated further. He wrote that if Tehran refused a diplomatic agreement, the United States might need to use Diego Garcia and the airfield at RAF Fairford in England to prevent a potential Iranian attack on the UK or its allies.

Diplomatic Tensions, Parliamentary Delay

Trump’s criticism also comes amid continuing debate over the UK’s decision to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, a British overseas territory, to Mauritius.

Under the terms of the agreement, signed in October 2025, the British–U.S. naval and bomber base on Diego Garcia would remain under UK control for at least 99 years, ensuring continued access for U.S. forces.

The UK government has said the agreement was necessary to safeguard the long-term operation of the base, following a series of international court rulings that weakened the UK’s legal position.

An image released by the U.S. Navy shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia. U.S. Navy via AP

According to Starmer’s remarks in January, the issue of the Chagos deal had been raised repeatedly with the White House, and he maintained that the Trump administration had already reviewed and supported the agreement at an agency level.

Trump has criticized the UK’s decision to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, calling it an “act of total weakness” in January.

“All of a sudden [Mauritius] was claiming ownership. He [Starmer] should have fought it out and owned it or make him take it, if you want to know the truth. But no, we were very disappointed in Keir,” Trump told The Telegraph, describing the Chagos deal as a “very woke thing.”

Last week, UK officials confirmed that Downing Street was pausing to discuss the matter with the United States before bringing the bill to ratify the Chagos deal back to Parliament.

“We are sometimes going to disagree with our friends and allies in public, but we will seek to resolve those issues in private,” British Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer told lawmakers on Feb. 25.

Referring to the UK’s decision to pause the process, Trump said it “is useful,” adding that “it took far too much time.”

“It would have been much better on the legal front if he just kept the ownership of the land and not given it to people that weren’t the rightful owners,” Trump said.

Security Risks

Roughly 300,000 Britons are believed to be in countries targeted by Iran, with 102,000 registered with the Foreign Office for alerts as officials weigh all options, including a potential mass evacuation.

Trump suggested Starmer should have always approved American use of the base, because Iran was responsible for killing “a lot of people from your country”.

“[There are] people without arms and legs and faces that have been blown up. Iran is 95 per cent of those. Those horrible events were caused by Iran,” Trump said.

Starmer said in his March 1 statement that Iran is “striking British interests” and “putting British people at huge risk.”

“Our partners in the Gulf have asked us to do more to defend them, and it is my duty to protect British lives,” he added.

Hours after his statement, a Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicle crashed into the UK’s Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. The drone struck military facilities at the base at 12:03 a.m., causing minor damage but no casualties, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said in a post on X.

A dog sits at the main gate of the UK's RAF Akrotiri air base after it was hit by a drone strike near Limassol, Cyprus, on March 2, 2026. Petros Karadjias/AP

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times on March 2, a spokesperson for the UK’s Ministry of Defence said that it regularly reviews the security of its overseas bases, including the Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus.

The ministry also said additional capabilities had recently been deployed to the island as part of efforts to maintain regional security and stability in the Middle East.

Those capabilities are focused on defensive operations and include radar systems, counter-drone technology, F-35 fighter jets and ground-based air defence systems designed to detect and defeat airborne threats.

PA Media contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 - 02:00

Telegram Has Reportedly Become A Pressing National Security Threat For Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Authorities in Russia believe that Ukraine has quick access to Russian servicemen’s messages and exploits this for military purposes, which wouldn’t be possible without some degree of complicity on Telegram’s part, thus impugning its founder’s character after he denied working with foreign spooks.

The FSB claimed to have “reliable information that the Ukrainian armed forces and intelligence agencies are able to quickly obtain information posted on the Telegram messenger and use it for military purposes.” This coincides with the government allegedly throttling Telegram on the grounds that it’s not in compliance with local laws, which preceded reports that it’ll be banned on 1 April. The authorities denied that they have nay such plan but there’s no doubt that Telegram is now controversial in Russia.

Speculation about Ukraine’s access to the messages sent by Russian servicemen on that platform, which the FSB also touched upon in their two-sentence press release, is credible in light of founder Pavel Durov’s brief detention by the French authorities in 2024. Although he vehemently denied that he cut a deal with them for granting their authorities access to certain users’ messages and has since accused them of askingz him to ban conservative Romanian accounts, he might be lying and it could all be an act.

After all, criticizing the French authorities in the aftermath of his scandalous detainment could be meant to convince observers that he didn’t cut a deal with them even though he might have, or he could at least have been coerced by the American ones to that end or even voluntarily decided to help the Ukrainian ones. In any case, however it ended up happening, the FSB arguably does indeed believe that Ukraine has access to Russian servicemen’s messages and uses them for military purposes.

It would therefore be best for them to speedily replace Telegram with Russia’s Max messenger app instead, which was developed for strengthening Russia’s “digital sovereignty”. That concept refers to the trend of countries asserting their sovereignty in this sphere through regulations like banning certain sites like Russia banned Facebook, Twitter/X, and others for non-compliance with local legislation and creating their own alternatives that can’t be exploited by their adversaries. It’s a sensible policy in today’s world.

In fact, so sensible is it that some cynics speculate that the pressure that Telegram has recently come under in Russia is part of the state’s campaign to get citizens to use Max, but that still doesn’t discredit the FSB’s claim about Ukraine having quick access to Russian servicemen’s messages. Telegram is used by many of them to communicate with each other as well as by many Russian businesses to engage with their clients. It’s also a useful channel for sharing facts about Russian policy with the rest of the world.

Even in the scenario of Russia banning Telegram, it could still be used with a VPN just like Facebook, Twitter/X, and other banned sites are, which the FSB obviously knows and thus challenges the cynical speculation that it might be lying about the app as part of a ploy to get Russians to use Max instead. Accordingly, their claim about it being compromised by Ukraine is credible, and this in turn impugns Durov’s character since it wouldn’t be possible without some degree of complicity on his part.

Whatever Telegram’s fate in Russia may be, Russia and others are correct in doubting the integrity of that app and all foreign ones in general since there are credible reasons to believe that they’re exploited by adversarial intelligence agencies for hostile purposes. The solution is therefore creating national alternatives and getting citizens to use them instead for strengthening “digital sovereignty”. Some states might struggle with this, however, so their citizens would then have to choose the “lesser (foreign) evil”.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 23:25

China Conducts Patrol In South China Sea, Accuses Philippines Of Disturbing Regional Peace

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

The Chinese regime’s navy conducted patrols in the South China Sea from Feb. 23 to Feb. 26, while the United States, Japan, and the Philippines were holding joint military exercises in international waters.

The Chinese regime criticized the Philippines for “disturbing peace” in the region.

Analysts told The Epoch Times that the standoff in the South China Sea does not necessarily mean that the situation will escalate soon, and the Chinese regime’s rhetoric reflects complicated political considerations.

The United States, the Philippines, and Japan this week conducted joint exercises over the Bashi Channel that separates the Philippines from Taiwan in the South China Sea, according to a statement by the Philippine military on Feb. 27. The drills were aimed at showcasing the forces’ “ability to operate seamlessly together in complex maritime environments,” the Philippine military said.

This was the first time that such joint exercises have been conducted in the Bashi Channel.

The Chinese regime reacted angrily to the joint drills. On Feb. 27, a spokesperson for the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Southern Theatre Command accused the Philippines of “disrupting peace and stability by organizing joint patrols with countries outside the region.”

China conducted a “routine patrol” of the South China Sea from Feb. 23 to Feb. 26, according to the spokesperson.

While China claims sovereignty over the waters, citing the historical nine-dash demarcation line within the South China Sea, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia each claim sovereignty over their exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea. Some of these zones overlap with each other, with communist China’s nine-dash line, and with Taiwan’s 11-dash demarcation.

On July 12, 2016, an international tribunal ruled that the nine-dash demarcation couldn’t be used by the regime in Beijing to make historic claims to the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by six governments. China rejected the ruling and has continued to assert its sovereignty claims and operations in the South China Sea.

“China has taken strong measures to drive away ships or fishing boats that enter the area, especially Philippine supply ships,” Shen Ming-shih, research fellow at the Division of National Security Research at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times.

“In such disputed areas, disputes should be shelved. It is because of China’s strong expulsion that the United States, Japan, and the Philippines are preparing for the worst-case scenario.”

Some of a total of 220 Chinese vessels are moored at Whitsun Reef, South China Sea on March 7, 2021. Philippine Coast Guard/National Task Force-West Philippine Sea via AP

Judging from the joint drills, it’s clear that the United States and Japan are paying particular attention to security in the South China Sea region, Shen added.

Commenting on the joint U.S.–Japan–Philippines drills conducted over the Bashi Channel, Wang Shiow-wen, an assistant researcher at the Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said, “This may be to test the PLA’s reaction, to see if the PLA has already considered the Bashi Channel and the South China Sea or even the Taiwan Strait as its own.”

As to the PLA’s accusation against the Philippines, she told The Epoch Times: “Why is it that the PLA’s daily harassment of Taiwan under the pretext of ‘exercises and training’ is not considered ‘disturbing peace and stability in the region,’ but other countries’ joint exercises are considered ‘disturbing the regional peace and stability’?”

The PLA spokesperson’s avoidance of directly naming the United States and Japan in its accusation may be laying the groundwork for future joint military exercises between China and Russia, or possibly North Korea, Wang said.

Furthermore, with an April meeting scheduled between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, both sides are currently cultivating a “friendly” atmosphere, making direct criticism inappropriate, she said.

Shen has a similar assessment. “Because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is currently hoping to ease tensions with the United States, and relations between China and Japan have already deteriorated, in order to avoid further complications, the Southern Theater Command only dared to condemn the relatively weaker Philippines in its statement this time.”

Deterrence

As to whether both sides doing military drills and patrols in the South China Sea in the same week might escalate the tension into a conflict, Shen said that “the main policy of the United States is to strengthen the defense capabilities of various countries in the First Island Chain region in order to deter China from easily launching a conflict or war in this region.”

An MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter, attached to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 14, prepares to land on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) on Jan. 15, 2026. Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Cesar Zavala/U.S. Navy

If war becomes unavoidable in the region, the United States should have many ways to participate. “Ultimately, war with the CCP will only be a last resort. Before that, political, economic, and cyber warfare are already underway,” he said.

Regarding the PLA spokesperson’s statement about China’s need to “safeguard China’s territorial sovereignty” and “uphold regional peace and stability,” Wang said that the Chinese regime is actually saying that as long as the United States, Japan, and the Philippines are not taking Chinese territory, the PLA won’t launch a preemptive attack.

Given the current military strength of the CCP, starting a war is not the problem, according to Wang. “The problem lies in how to sustain and end the war,” she said. “The Russia–Ukraine war has entered its fifth year, which should serve as a great warning to the CCP.”

“If the CCP leader Xi Jinping wants to escape his various domestic crises by starting a war, then it can only be said that he himself has determined the fate of the CCP regime,” she said.

A Chinese PLA Navy ship (background L) is seen while an Australian Navy destroyer (R) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity near Scarborough Shoal, on Sept. 3, 2025. Ted Aljibe/AFP via Getty Images

Shen believes that the PLA’s patrol was routine, saying, “I don’t think it’s likely to start a conflict or war right now.”

“I think maintaining internal stability, conducting the CCP’s Fifth Plenary Session effectively, and balancing the power should be the top priorities right now.”

Shen added that when the internal power struggle within the CCP deteriorates or intensifies, “if [the regime] wants to take actions to divert [the] Chinese public’s attention from the domestic to the international, it might target the relatively weaker Philippines or the South China Sea.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 20:55

Watch: Israel Neutralizes Hezbollah Missiles With Game-Changing "Iron Beam"

Hezbollah opened a new front in the broadening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran overnight, launching a barrage of missiles and kamikaze drone swarms at an Israeli military base in northern Israel. 

Footage of one of those missile launches posted on X by the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation (IPBC) shows what appears to be some of those Hezbollah missiles prematurely exploding moments after launch. 

IPBC explained that the apparent misfires were due to the "Interception of the Rocket from Lebanon Carried Out Using the "Iron Beam" Laser System." 

⚡HISTORIC: For the first time ever, Israel used the Iron Beam to intercept rockets fired by Hezbollah. pic.twitter.com/DU63REU22k

— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) March 2, 2026

We reported last fall that Israel Defense Forces rolled out its new high-powered laser defense system, known as the "Iron Beam."

The laser-based air defense system was developed by Rafael and built to complement the Iron Dome missile defense shield. Instead of launching expensive interceptor missiles, it uses a high-energy laser to destroy short-range threats such as rockets, mortar rounds, and drones.

The footage likely shows the 100 kW-class Iron Beam in action, able to neutralize incoming projectiles for only a few dollars per shot, versus roughly $100,000 for a traditional interceptor rocket.

11 Patriots cost $44M.

They downed a $250K Iranian missile.

The math is brutal.

Video shows intercepts over Haifa as Israel counters more waves. pic.twitter.com/QO43UiWYu0

— Brandon Straka #WalkAway (@BrandonStraka) March 2, 2026

One of the major problems for U.S. and Israeli forces is that the cost per counter-missile and drone is extraordinarily expensive and uneconomical if the war dragged on for a prolonged period of time.

Related: 

• War Stocks Jump: These Firms Have The Most Middle East Exposure

But there is a big caveat, per the Times of Israel: "The main downside of a laser system is that it does not function well in low visibility, including heavy cloud cover or other inclement weather."

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 20:30

Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado Says She Will Return To Venezuela In Coming Weeks

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado said on March 1 that she will return to her country in the coming weeks.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado during an interview with AFP in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 25, 2024. Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

Machado, 58, did not set a date for her return, but she said in a video posted to X that one of the objectives is to prepare for “a new and resounding electoral victory.”

“I will return to Venezuela in a few weeks. I want to do so, as do hundreds and thousands of Venezuelan exiles around the world,” she said. “We will arrive to embrace one another, to work together to guarantee an orderly and sustainable transition to democracy.”

Then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, were captured in a U.S. military operation on Jan. 3 and taken to the United States, where the pair face drug trafficking-related charges. Both have denied the charges.

Delcy Rodríguez, who has been the interim leader of Venezuela since, said that Machado, who is under investigation in her home country, should have to “answer to Venezuela” for her support of U.S. military action against Caracas.

Shortly after Maduro’s capture, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Venezuela must go through phases of stabilization, economic recovery, and then, finally, a transition of power.

Rubio has not indicated that elections could be held in the short term.

Nobel Prize Winner

In her video, Machado praised U.S. President Donald Trump for his “vision and courage,” having “brought Nicolás Maduro before international justice—international justice that, finally, on Jan. 3, served the people and not the tyrants, serving the sovereignty expressed through the vote.”

“We want to thank the people of the United States, their government, their members of Congress, their judges, and their military men and women who risked their lives for the freedom of Venezuela and for the national security of their country and the security of all the Americas,” she said.

On Oct. 10, 2025, Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work fighting for democracy in Venezuela. She left Venezuela in December 2025 for Oslo, Norway, to receive the award and is currently in the United States.

She later gave her medal to Trump when she met with the U.S. president at the White House on Jan. 15.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado in the Oval Office on Jan. 15, 2026. Daniel Torok/The White House/Reuters

Machado was an opposition presidential candidate but was disqualified from running against Maduro in the 2024 election. He was replaced by Edmundo González.

After Maduro claimed victory, protests erupted, which triggered widespread repression by the state. The opposition claimed that it had evidence that González was the rightful winner. González was deemed the victor by the United States.

Maduro and his wife are being held in U.S. custody. In their first court appearance in New York City on Jan. 5, they were charged with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess those items.

Maduro, 63, and Flores, 69, pleaded not guilty.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/02/2026 - 20:05