US & Chinese Fighter Jets In Rare Brief Face-Off Near Korea

US and Chinese fighter jets engaged in a brief aerial standoff over waters near the Korean Peninsula this week, according to South Korean media, in a rare and dangerous incident that underscores ongoing simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Yonhap, citing military sources, reported that China scrambled aircraft on Wednesday after roughly 10 US jets took off from an American airbase in South Korea for planned drills. The US had reportedly filed its flight plan in advance.

F-16 fighters assigned to US Forces Korea (USFK) launched from Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, about 60 kilometers south of Seoul, and flew near the overlapping air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of South Korea and China. The US aircraft did not enter China’s ADIZ, according to the report, but alarm bells still went off for the Chinese PLA military.

Chosun Daily: The South Korean and U.S. Air Forces conduct a joint formation flight, escorting a US Air Force B-1B 'Lancer' strategic bomber with fighter jets, following North Korea's ICBM provocation in February 2023. 

In response, "The Chinese People's Liberation Army organized naval and air forces to monitor and effectively respond to the activities throughout the process in accordance with laws and regulations," China's Global Times reported Friday.

The outlet described the episode as US warplanes operating in airspace facing China over the Yellow Sea - a move that prompted Beijing's rapid response.

"The F-16s reportedly flew to an area between the respective air defense identification zones of South Korea and China, prompting the Chinese military to dispatch its own fighter jets to the scene, but no clash occurred," Yonhap writes.

According to more unusual aspects to the incident:

The paper also noted an “unusual” number of US jets in the air, adding that it could suggest that the exercise had been “aimed at signaling deterrence toward China.”

Yonhap news agency said that Washington had informed Seoul of the planned mission, but did not elaborate.

China’s Global Times acknowledged the incident, saying that Beijing’s military “organized sea and air forces to conduct continuous monitoring… and effectively responded to and handled the situation.”

In the background, President Trump has continued to positively tout his highly anticipated trip to Beijing the first week of April. On China's red lines concerning handing over to Taiwan record-breaking arms packages, Trump has remained ambiguous...

Trump says he "wouldn't answer" a question on how the US would respond if Taiwan were attacked by China.

"I would have just said that it's none of your business right now ... When it comes to war, you don't talk about your strategy," he says.pic.twitter.com/kcih0jRPBI

— Rosie Birchard (@RosieBirchard) February 20, 2026

As for other tensions, Beijing is not happy that Washington is accusing it of conducting banned nuclear weapons detonation tests.

The CCP has responded to the accusation of an alleged 2020 test via state mouthpiece (@HuXijin_GT), saying there is an ulterior motive for the timing of this announcement: "Trump is eager to resume nuclear testing and needs a plausible reason, and accusing China of conducting nuclear tests is the perfect pretext."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:40

Agentic AI Isn't Eating Software – It's Feeding Market Volatility

Authored by David Parsons via BondVigilantes.com,

The sharp sell‑off across software names in recent weeks has prompted questions from investors, many centred on whether the rapid rise of agentic artificial intelligence marks the beginning of a deeper structural shift in enterprise technology.

The catalyst was the latest demonstration from Anthropic’s Claude platform, whose new “Cowork” and “Code” capabilities promise to automate tasks that were once firmly in human hands, from drafting documents and synthesising research to generating production‑ready code. Equity markets were quick to draw conclusions, punishing enterprise software companies without drawing any distinctions, based on the assumption that their software tools and embedded long term relationships were significantly devalued.

Discussions among technology specialists, both within M&G and across the broader industry, agree that the market move has been overdone. Rather than reflecting the pace or scale of disruption in the software environment, prices have been driven lower by perceived risk rather than evidence that software company valuations have been impaired by the AI revolution. The degree of weakness bears little resemblance to what is actually happening inside real enterprise businesses. Instead of a measured repricing based on a quantifiable change in credit quality, this has been a largely sentiment-driven reaction to a headline‑grabbing demonstration.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg Indices (Ref. S5SOFWTR, NDX, SPX, SISCSE, SXXP) as at 13 February 2026.

Most enterprise software vendors have already embraced the need to incorporate AI into their architecture. Many large vendors have spent years developing their products, integrating machine learning into their platforms and automating processes in compliance, risk management, customer analytics, IT operations and more. The emergence of tools like Claude sits within this longer term evolution rather than representing a sudden and existential shock. While impressive in isolation, few AI tools are ready for large scale integration into client processes. Corporate buyers, whilst keen to embrace the latest technologies, struggle to keep pace with the constant rollout of AI-led applications. In practice, procurement cycles, organisational constraints, audit trails and governance requirements will continue to slow adoption, particularly in regulated, core business processes or critical IT systems.

Existing enterprise software systems sit at the heart of major businesses, making software companies more resilient than current market pricing would suggest. Enterprise platforms anchor trading desks, risk management, regulatory reporting, client‑servicing infrastructure and internal control frameworks. They are embedded in workflows and integrated within legacy systems creating substantial financial, operational and regulatory switching costs that represent a significant ‘moat’ for software businesses. For most large organisations, reliability and continuity matter far more than theoretical productivity gains.

Despite the noise around AI agents, there is little evidence of customers abandoning incumbents. A more likely scenario is the opposite, that new AI tools reinforce the competitive position of established software vendors. Incumbents also hold decades of proprietary, structured, client specific data. This could materially improve AI model performance and suggests that partnerships between software vendors and AI agent developers such as Anthropic is a likely out-turn. Far from being disrupted, many Software companies could actually become strategic partners in the development of next‑generation AI tools and systems.

As with any period of rapid technological change, there will be winners and losers. Vendors offering more client-centric or commoditised applications with low switching barriers may potentially face challenges. Pricing structures will likely evolve and we may see linkages to cost savings or productivity introduced alongside more traditional licence based models may evolve too. Change is inevitable from the introduction of AI into almost every business over the next few years, but it is too early to assume AI is sounding the death-knell of large parts of the software sector, or as we have also seen recently, the wealth management sector.

M&G, Bloomberg Indices (Ref. LUACTRUU, I00394US, I40257US) as at 13 February 2026

For credit investors, the more important question is whether the equity‑led repricing signals underlying stresses in cashflows, leverage or financing risk. On this point, the picture remains reassuring. Credit spreads have widened and valuations have compressed, especially among lenders to private software companies where sentiment is fragile, but the underlying credit characteristics of most public issuers remain solid. Software revenues are sticky, renewal rates remain high, and long‑term contracts continue to anchor client relationships. What the sector is experiencing reflects sentiment rather than a permanent change in credit fundamentals.

Markets seems likely to continue trying to anticipate winners and losers across the sector, with software currently at the centre of concern. Current market price action feels overdone and without evidence to the contrary should correct. AI will embed itself into many (possibly most?) industries in the next few years, and market participants will have to inevitably become more pragmatic and discerning as to the likely winners and losers based on evidence rather than over-hyped expectation. Our view remains that AI will enhance rather than replace incumbent software, strengthening rather than weakening the sector’s long‑term foundations.

The narrative that “AI will eat software” has run far ahead of reality. Agentic AI tools marks an important evolution, but it does not constitute an existential threat to the core of the enterprise software industry. For bond investors, this sentiment‑driven repricing may create pockets of value in fundamentally strong issuers whose long‑term strategic positioning remains intact. The foundational advantages enjoyed by enterprise software providers should prove far more durable than current market pricing suggests.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:25

Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Grows At 1.4%, Half Expected Pace, As Government Shutdown Slams Growth

There was a big surprise at 8:30am ET when the BEA reported the (delayed) GDP print for the last quarter of 2025: With consensus expecting a 2.8% print  (and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model even higher) which would already be a big drop from the 4.4% in Q3, the BEA instead reported that the US economy grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the slowest growth since the tariff shock of Q1 2025.

According to the BEA, the contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. 

Overall, the economy expanded 2.2% last year, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed.

Specifically, the Q4 breakdown was as follows:

• Personal consumption slowed notably, from 2.34% of the bottom line GDP to just 1.58% or more than 100% of the final 1.42% GDP print
• Fixed Investment contributed to 0.45% of bottom line GDP, up from 0.15% in Q3
• Change in private inventories added 0.21%, up from a decline of -0.12% in Q3
• Net exports (exports less imports) continued to normalize and in Q4 added just 0.08% to the GDP number, down dramatically from 1.62% in Q3
• Last and definitely worse, government was actually a major drawdown, reducing the Q4 GDP by 0.9%, a sharp reversal from the 0.38% addition in Q3.

And visually:

Of the above, the most notable variable was government spending, which due to the government shutdown in Q4 tumbled by 5.1% - the biggest drop since covid - and subtracted 0.9% from the final GDP number.

Knowing in advance how bad the number would be due to the shutdown, less than an hour before the data were released, Trump posted on social media that the shutdown would cost the US “at least two points in GDP.”

That may be an exageration, but it is modest: if one takes the average growth in recent quarters due to government which is about 0.5-0.6% and subtracts the 0.9% hit in Q4, the actual swing is about 1.5%. 

Of course, this is just a delayed reversal, and expect to see Q1 GDP offset by this much if not more, meaning Q1 GDP will likely print around 4%.

Government slowdown aside, perhaps an even more notable print is the continued explosion in spending on computers/peripheral equipment courtesy of AI, which has surged 70% in the past year and has more than doubled to $300BN at the end of 2025, more than double since the launch of chatGPT in 2022. 

Despite the year-end slowdown, the data capped a solid year for the US economy, which shrank in the first quarter amid a monumental pre-tariff surge in imports, only to round out 2025 with one of the strongest growth rates in years. The turnaround came after Trump backed off of his most punitive levies and the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, helping drive the stock market to record highs and enabling wealthier Americans to keep spending.

Separate monthly data out Friday showed the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — the core PCE index — rose 0.4% in December, the most in nearly a year. On an annual basis, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3%, compared to 2.8% at the start of 2025. All of these prints were hot...

... suggesting that all else equal, the US is once again flirting with stagflation, although as has so often been the case, the Q4 GDP print is an outlier, as is the December PCE, the first impacted by the government shutdown the second heated up by higher commodity prices which will reverse as soon as the geopolitical circus involving Iran quiets down. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:17

FBI Director Kash Patel Says Bureau Uncovered Antifa Funding Sources

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

FBI Director Kash Patel said on Feb. 18 that the law enforcement agency uncovered what he said are funding sources tied to antifa organizations, suggesting that more enforcement actions could come against the left-wing movement.

FBI Director Kash Patel speaks during a news conference at the Department of Justice in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Daniel Heuer/AFP via Getty Images

“Whether it’s antifa or any other violent criminal organization—we know their operations don’t exist alone; they operate with heavy funding streams,” he wrote in a post on X, along with a clip from an interview with former deputy director Dan Bongino, on his show.

Patel said that the FBI is “finding them and those who fund their criminal activity.”

The FBI chief did not provide more information about the organizations, the source of the funding, or specific donors who may be involved. However, he said the FBI is looking into any financial backers linked to violence committed by alleged antifa operators.

Agents are looking at whether funding was sent through U.S.-based nonprofit groups and whether any of those nonprofits had tax-exempt status. They are also evaluating potential foreign funding streams, he said.

“Money doesn’t lie,” Patel told Bongino in the interview, saying that the FBI is right now “following the money” and that the law enforcement agency is “starting to arrest people who used their funds to incite violence in the guise of political peaceful protest.”

Last year, Patel told The Epoch Times’s Jan Jekielek in an interview that the FBI is mapping out the entire antifa network and indicated that funding streams are being traced, coming months after the Trump administration designated antifa as a domestic terrorist group.

The executive order, issued by President Donald Trump on Sept. 22, called antifa a “militarist, anarchist enterprise that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the United States Government, law enforcement authorities, and our system of law.” The administration also designated foreign antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations in November 2025.

The State Department, in its designation, stated that “groups affiliated with this movement ascribe to revolutionary anarchist or Marxist ideologies, including anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity, using these to incite and justify violent assaults domestically and overseas.”

In his first term, Trump signaled that he would designate antifa a terrorist group in the midst of anti-police riots, violence, and demonstrations in the summer of 2020. At one point during the 2020 unrest, Trump warned that he would invoke the Insurrection Act that was last used during the Los Angeles riots in 1992, and he again suggested invoking the law as National Guard deployments were sent to multiple cities last year.

Patel on Feb. 18 also dismissed longstanding claims that antifa is only an ideological framework and said that dozens of people in Texas have been arrested in connection with the left-wing organization.

Federal officials in October 2025 targeted antifa and filed terrorism charges against five people in Texas, citing the order issued by Trump. In November 2025, the five defendants pleaded guilty in response to charges that they were accused of supporting antifa in a July shooting that wounded a police officer outside a Texas immigration detention center.

Patel previously said the charges in Texas are the first time a material support to terrorism charge has targeted antifa.

Bongino, who was the FBI deputy director before leaving the government in January, returned to hosting his podcast this month.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:55

Savings Rate Tumbles To 4 Year Lows As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Comes In Hot

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose 0.4% in December (the latest data released today), slightly hotter than expected (+0.3% MoM). That lifted YoY inflation up 3.0% (above the prior month and hotter than expected) - the highest since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM (more than expected too) driving prices up 2.9% YoY (the highest since March 2024)

Source: Bloomberg

The much watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.3% MoM (the last MoM decline was April 2020). But the SuperCore PCE YoY printed +3.3% - very much unmoved in the last year...

Services prices continue to dominate the price gains but Goods costs also accelerated in December...

Many were fearful of the recent surge in oil prices impacting inflation, but as the chart below shows, the government's measure of energy costs has recently (oddly) decoupled from actual energy costs...

Higher prices were accompanied by higher incomes and higher spending...

But Spending continues to outpace incomes (even though the former is decelerating)...

Wage growth is slowing, especially for government workers...

But, putting it altogether, the savings rate is tumbling to afford all this...

We look forward to President Trump explaining how affordability is 'fixed' next week at the SOTU.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:47

ECB Quietly Prepares Global Liquidity Backstop As Euro Debt Wave Builds

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Starting in the third quarter of 2026, new rules will apply to the so-called euro repo facility. Central banks worldwide will be able to post up to €50 billion in euro-denominated collateral, such as government bonds, with the ECB in order to obtain euro liquidity from the central bank in cases of acute need. The goal is to guarantee the permanent availability of euro liquidity, replacing the previously time-limited repo lines.

Central banks typically resort to this monetary policy instrument during phases of acute liquidity stress — most recently during the COVID lockdowns. The repo facility counts among the central banks’ immediate crisis tools. The so-called EUREP (Eurosystem Repo Facility for Central Banks) was launched on June 25, 2020, as a short-term liquidity solution for associated central banks: the Central Bank of Kosovo drew €100 million, Montenegro €250 million in short-term liquidity assistance.

Repo auctions generally involve the exchange and short-term pledging of European government bonds for maturities of one to five days, which commercial banks deposit at the central bank in return for liquidity. The collateral is returned after a short period, and the so-called bank reserves are withdrawn again once the liquidity problem has been resolved and the interbank market is functioning properly.

The ECB’s announcement that it will now offer this instrument globally — and over periods of several weeks or even months — raises eyebrows. It suggests that the monetary guardians of the Eurosystem may be anticipating a liquidity crisis in the not-too-distant future.

Euro as a Reserve Currency

The drastic expansion of sovereign debt within the eurozone system may explain why concerns are deepening at the ECB tower. If the two pillars, Germany and France, are each calculating net new borrowing of five percent this year alone — thereby placing a steadily growing volume of bonds on the markets — this generates palpable upward pressure on interest rates. At the same time, investors are asking how strongly the creditworthiness of individual euro states ultimately depends on Germany’s ability to service the mounting debt — a pressure that is manifesting itself in markets.

Interest rates have already been rising for more than three years, particularly at the long end of the bond market. This suggests that confidence among large investors, who traditionally provide the bulk of liquidity in this market, is gradually eroding. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure internationally: euro-denominated reserves currently account for less than 20 percent of global bank reserves and show a slight downward trend. Similar developments can be observed in the settlement of international transactions, where the euro holds roughly a 24 percent share.

The dominant global actor remains the U.S. dollar, both as a reserve currency with a 59 percent share and in the settlement of international transactions at 47 percent. Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that Europe’s monetary authorities are facing an increasingly challenging combination of rising debt, growing interest rates, and a global environment that does not accord the euro the status of the U.S. dollar — factors that pose serious questions for the Eurosystem’s stability and liquidity.

A severe blow to the euro’s international role was the European Union decision to permanently implement the Russia embargo and halt trade in Russian oil and gas. Russia had been among the few major energy market players willing to allow euro denomination and thus held substantial reserves. That era is over.

However, rumors are circulating that the United States, in the event of a peace settlement in Ukraine, could restore Russia’s access to the SWIFT system. Would the EU then follow suit? A return to the status quo ante might require a different political regime in Brussels and Berlin.

Growing Debt Volume

A fiscal policy U-turn within the EU is also under discussion. Should member states agree on a “two-speed Europe” and implement joint financing of new debt via so-called Eurobonds, this would place the European bond market on an entirely new footing in terms of both volume and structure.

European taxpayers — above all the still relatively less indebted Germans at the federal level — would then stand behind the credit guarantees. In Frankfurt, such a revolutionary step is expected to deliver a massive boost in global demand for euro-denominated bonds.

One unknown in the geopolitical power struggle remains the Federal Reserve. On several occasions last year, the ECB warned of a possible shortage of U.S. dollars within the European banking system. The United States holds a powerful lever here: it can drive up the political price of bridging potential illiquidity through rapid swap lines — short-term loans within the dollar system to European banks and the ECB.

Oversupply of Euro Bonds

The Eurosystem thus faces immense absorption problems. If global demand for EU debt — that is, euro bonds — cannot be generated, interest rates will continue to rise. In light of the massive issuance wave of new euro sovereign bonds, the ECB would be forced to take this debt onto its own balance sheet to keep debt servicing in member states under control.

The expansion of the repo facility into a permanent liquidity backstop therefore appears plausible. Global central banks would have an incentive to accumulate a growing share of euro bonds. Moreover, the volume would be available to gain direct access to the Eurosystem without assembling a portfolio of bonds from individual states. Germany’s relatively low debt level had in fact recently been a problem, as insufficient tranches of German federal bonds were available for larger capital allocations. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his finance minister are currently eliminating this issue with their present debt policy.

The ECB’s measures thus fit into a broader fiscal policy development that could culminate in a structural expansion of joint debt. By institutionally safeguarding international demand for euro bonds, the central bank is creating the infrastructural preconditions for a potential new debt regime within the European Union — while simultaneously shifting the boundary between monetary stabilization and fiscal support of state budgets.

The European repo facility, once conceived as a rescue umbrella for liquidity problems, is gradually evolving into a classic, expanding debt pool. With eurozone government debt likely to rise from the current 92 percent of GDP to around 100 percent over the next two years, pressure on the ECB to devise mechanisms for distributing this flood of debt across global bond markets will intensify.

Whether this succeeds appears highly doubtful given the euro economy’s chronic economic weakness.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:30

Futures Drop As Iran Tensions Rise, Data Deluge Looms

US equity futures are lower, sliding from session highs around the European open to session low just before 8am E as traders assessed the potential market impact of war with Iran, and awaited a firehose of US economic data including GDP and core PCE. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% having traded in the green for much of the overnight session. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly red with GOOGL bucking the trend and rising +1.2%. Blue Owl Capital’s shares were set to fall a further 3.5% after its decision to limit withdrawals from a private credit fund. Bond yields have also reversed and are now lower on the session while the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower while precious metals are rallying, sending gold above $5000 again; Brent crude fell toward $71 a barrel, paring gains since Monday to about 5%.  Overnight, a WSJ article rehashed the now familiar story that Trump considers an initial limited strike to force negotiation. Today, key macro focus will be PCE, Flash PMIs and SCOTUS opinion day (markets are waiting for possible decision on IEEPA tariffs).

In premarket trading, magnificent Seven stocks are mixed early Friday (Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.02%, Meta (META) -0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.1%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)

• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) falls 11% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is weaker than expected for both the first quarter and the full year.
• Ardelyx (ARDX) drops 6% after the drugmaker gave sales forecast for its Ibsrela drug in the first quarter that Jefferies views as softer than expected
• Copart (CPRT) falls 8% after the online vehicle salvage auction company reported operating income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Floor & Decor (FND) climbs 4% after the flooring and tile retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Grail (GRAL) tumbles 47% after the early cancer detection test maker said Galleri, its multi-cancer screener, failed to meet its primary endpoint of statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancer.
• Harmonic (HLIT) rises 9% after the communications equipment’s book-to-bill is seen as strong and reinforcing its growth potential.
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM) declines almost 5% after the miner reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate as production fell year-over-year.
• Newmont (NEM) drops 4% after the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) climbs 19% as the online marketplace for residential real estate reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• RingCentral (RNG) rises 10% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics and it gave a positive forecast for both the first quarter and the full year.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) rises 4% after the restaurant chain said it expects positive comparable restaurant sales growth for the year as it plans to implement a menu price increase in early April.
• Workiva Inc. (WK) gains 12% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave revenue forecasts for both the first quarter and the full year that are seen as positive.

Friday morning brings long-delayed readings of core personal consumption expenditure — a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs. The data may prove important not only in deciphering the next move in interest rates, but also the outlook for the great rotation trade out of tech names into materials, energy and other cyclicals linked to a stronger economy. Bloomberg Economics expects core inflation to have accelerated into the year end. Prices of services including recreation, accommodation and video streaming are likely to have contributed to a month-on-month increase of 0.32% in the core PCE deflator for December and a tick-up in the annual rate to 2.9% from 2.8%. 

Wider inflation is set to be stoked by oil near a six-month high as Trump oversees the biggest US military buildup in the Middle East since 2003 and warns Iran that it has 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program — or else.

Speaking of "or else", the US military is deploying a vast array of forces in the Middle East as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran to strike a deal over its nuclear program. While the move in oil seeped into risk assets, traders note that recent geopolitical flare-ups have had only a limited impact on markets.

“Geopolitical stories are really notoriously difficult to price,” Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “Right now it’s almost impossible to assign probabilities to any outcome, given how quickly those narratives change.”

Elsewhere, as Trump looks to soothe concerns among rich and poor alike ahead of the midterms, he declared victory in the fight over cost-of-living concerns. It signals a new approach from the president that denies problems with his economic agenda while touting stock market gains to insist that his tariff plans have been a success. The White House is ratcheting up pressure on Congress to enact Trump’s proposed ban on investors buying homes, laying out for the first time what sort of investment firms he plans to target, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Turning to earnings, Of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than 74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed. No major companies are due to report today, but the earnings season picks up pace again next week, with companies representing a further 13% of the S&P’s market value on deck. 

European stocks rebound after a halt to their rally in the prior session. Stoxx 600 up by 0.5%, with consumer, construction and chemicals outperforming. Moncler leads luxury stocks to outperform, while the energy and utilities sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

• Moncler shares gain as much as 13%, the most since September 2024, after the maker of high-end puffer jackets reported results that Barclays said were significantly ahead of estimates.
• Air Liquide shares rise as much as 3.9%, trading at a three-month high, after the French industrial-gas producer posted second-half earnings that beat expectations and raised its dividend more than anticipated, according to a Jefferies analyst.
• Kingspan shares climb as much as 9.4%, touching their highest level since 2024, after the construction firm generated record revenue and said the part of its business that builds infrastructure for data centers has an “extraordinary pipeline.”
• Unipol shares rise as much as 6.6%, their biggest gain in over 10 months, after the Italian insurer topped expectations in the latest quarter, with Barclays noting a higher dividend, stronger capital returns and better margins.
• Dis-Chem shares rally as much as 4.6% in Johannesburg, touching its highest intraday level in over a year, after the pharmacy stores chain reported a loyalty program-driven increase in revenue.
• ALK-Abello shares rise as much as 4.7%, hitting their highest level in over a month, after the pharmaceutical company with a focus on allergies said it will pay its first dividend since 2017 and topped expectations in the final quarter, according to analysts at Jefferies.
• Siegfried shares fall as much as 6.7%, the most since August, after weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance from the the Swiss pharma firm.
• Umicore shares decline as much as 7.1% in Brussels, hitting its lowest intraday level since December after the specialty chemicals company reported net income for 2H 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Danone shares drop 2.1% after a like-for-like sales beat was offset by a miss in volumes and misses in certain units in China and the US, according to Jefferies.
• Aston Martin shares slip as much as 4.4% after the British carmaker posted another profit warning.
• Chemring shares slide as much as 5.5% after the defense firm said it has made a slower start to the year than anticipated.

Earlier, Asian stocks fell in the last session of a holiday-thinned trading week, as renewed fears of conflict between the US and Iran weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped as much as 0.4%. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags, with investors rotating into smaller tech names in Hong Kong as the market reopened following the Lunar New Year break. Benchmarks fell more than 1% in Japan and New Zealand. Stocks gained in South Korea and India. Investors turned cautious after US President Donald Trump warned that Iran had 10 to 15 days to come up with a deal over its nuclear program. While equities broadly fell, sectors related to energy and defense gained on the escalating tensions. Mainland China and Taiwan markets will reopen next week. Traders will also be focused on monetary policy decisions from South Korea and Thailand, as well as gross domestic product data from Hong Kong and India. Companies due to report results from the region include HSBC and Baidu, while Nvidia headlines overseas earnings.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and in a narrow range for the day. Sterling outperforming, yen and the kiwi falling.

In rates, treasuries are little changed.Gilt curve flattening after slew of data, including strong retail sales, a record budget surplus and solid PMIs. Euro-area business activity improved thanks to a boost from German factories. Bund yields edging lower,

In commodities, oil fluctuates with concerns about US-Iran tensions at the forefront. Brent now down for the session and getting closer to $71/barrel, having jumped the day before. Gold prices higher and holding above $5,000/oz.

Today's econ calendar consists of readings of personal income and spending in December are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, alongside core PCE indexes for the same month and 4Q GDP data. They are followed at 9:45 a.m. by S&P Global’s provisional manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes for February. At 10 a.m., readings of new homes sales in December and the University of Michigan’s final index of consumer sentiment in February are due. Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (9:45am), Logan (12:45pm) and Musalem (3:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.3%, CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.07%
• VIX -0.1 points at 20.09
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1191.49
• euro -0.1% at $1.1759
• WTI crude -0.6% at $66.06/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump is weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal, a first step that would be designed to pressure Tehran into an agreement but fall short of a full-scale attack that could inspire a major retaliation. WSJ 
• Trump said regarding affordability "we've solved it" and will talk about inflation in the State of the Union next week.
• The White House is ratcheting up pressure on Congress to enact President Trump’s proposed ban on investors buying homes, laying out for the first time what sort of investment firms he plans to target. In a memo sent Thursday to House and Senate committee leaders, the White House proposed banning investors with more than 100 single-family homes from purchasing additional homes. WSJ 
• The US is planning a Peace Corps initiative that would send thousands of science and math graduates abroad to boost foreign nations’ reliance on American tech over Chinese alternatives. BBG 
• Oil traded near a six-month high as tensions with Iran intensified, with the US amassing forces in the Middle East in its biggest deployment since 2003. Donald Trump said Iran has no more than two weeks to reach a deal over its nuclear program. BBG 
• Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion of private loans to three of North America’s biggest pension funds and its own insurer to help pay out investors, people familiar said. The move underscores the risks facing retail investors as they move into the fast-expanding private credit market. BBG 
• Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI that will replace the long-term $100 billion commitment agreed last year. FT 
• Japanese PM Takaichi told fellow lawmakers on Friday that a severe lack of domestic investment is holding back the country’s potential growth rate compared to other major advanced economies as she pledged to take “thorough and decisive measures” in the form of government backed, large scale and long term strategic investments. Nikkei 
• Japan’s consumer prices rose at a slower pace in the first month of 2026, giving the central bank more breathing room to consider its next step. Consumer inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, climbed 2.0% in January from a year earlier, compared with December’s 2.4% rise, government data showed Friday. WSJ 
• Britain recorded its biggest budget surplus on record in January, augmented by a surge in inflows of capital gains tax and lower debt payments. Separate data showed retail sales surged 1.8%, the fastest growth in 20 months. The pound erased losses. BBG 

Trade/Tariffs

• India's Trade Minister said they expect the US to issue a notice on lowering the import tariff to 18% during February.
• India's Trade Minister said they expect the trade deal with the UK to come into effect by April.
• Indonesian Government said they will get 19% tariffs on most goods, with 0% on coffee, chocolate and rubber in the US trade deal. Deal also will not involve any third country when asked about China trans-shipment concerns.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa said not set the timing on the second set of US investment projects, adds want to make sure PM Takaichi's US trip in March is fruitful.
• White House releases fact sheet on Trump administration finalising the trade deal with Indonesia that will provide Americans with unprecedented market access and unlock major breakthroughs for America’s manufacturing, agriculture, and digital sectors.
• US President Trump accused China of flooding US market with subsidised goods.
• US President Trump said steel tariffs have been a game-changer.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the predominantly negative mood on Wall Street, where risk appetite was subdued amid private credit fund concerns and geopolitical risks related to the US and Iran following Trump's latest threat and 10-15 day ultimatum. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid underperformance in the tech, telecoms and consumer sectors, while participants continued to digest a slew of earnings, although downside was stemmed by resilience in utilities and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 stumbled back beneath the 57,000 level with the index pressured despite recent currency weakness and the softer inflation data, which essentially provides the BoJ with more policy space, while tech and autos were among the industries notably represented in the list of worst-performing stocks. Hang Seng retreated upon returning from the Lunar New Year holidays with the big tech names leading the declines in the index, while mainland markets and the Stock Connect remained shut and won't open until next Tuesday.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said there is a dearth of domestic investment in Japan and will stop trend of austerity and lack of investment. She pledges to drive a significant investment via multi-year budgets and long-term funding strategies and affirms that essential expenditures will be maximised through the initial budget allocation. Affirms commitment to prudent fiscal policies to maintain market confidence. Aims for swift approval of crucial legislation, including tax reform, by the end of FY26/27. Government will unveil an investment roadmap for 17 strategic sectors beginning next month. Announced acceleration of nuclear reactor restarts.
• Japan PM Takaichi to promote measures to spur private spending and outline plans for increased strategic investment, active but responsible fiscal policy, and more assertive diplomacy in parliamentary address, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) have rebounded from Thursday's selloff, with the FTSE MIB (+1.0%) and CAC 40 (+0.7%) leading gains. The FTSE 100 (+0.7%) is also in the green, supported by strong January retail sales and a PSNB surplus figure, beating estimates by a large margin. European sectors hold a positive bias; Consumer Products and Services (+1.7%) lead the standings, closely followed by Chemicals (+1.4%). On the other hand, the pullback in oil prices is weighing on the Energy sector (-0.6%). Moncler (+11.9%) announced a positive set of FY earnings, comfortably beating revenue and net income estimates. This is lifting other luxury companies such as LVMH (+3.0%) and Kering (+1.2%).

Top European News

• UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Feb) 53.9 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 54.0, Low. 52.8, High. 54.2).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Feb) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.8, Low. 51, High. 52.5).
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Feb) 53.9 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 53.7, Low. 52.8, High. 53.9).
• UK Retail Sales MoM (Jan) M/M 1.8% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. -0.6%, High. 1.0%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Jan) M/M 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. -0.1%, High. 0.9%).
• UK Retail Sales YoY (Jan) Y/Y 4.5% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. From 2.5%, Low. 2.4%, High. 3.6%).

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer this morning and trades at the mid-point of a 97.84 to 98.07 range, with the peak of the day matching the WTD’s best; currently holding around its 50 DMA at 97.96. Focus remains firmly on the geopolitical situation between US and Iran. To recap, President Trump said 15 days is the maximum deadline to reach an agreement with Iran, other it will be “unfortunate” for them. Recent reports in the WSJ suggest that Trump is weighing a “limited” strike, to force Iran into a deal. Attention for the time being will be on US data, which includes US GDP and PCE.
• GBP is incrementally firmer/flat. Retail Sales was an exceptionally strong report, with the upside attributed to strong “artwork and antiques sales, alongside continued strong sales from online jewellers”. But other components suggest that the pick-up was also seen in more conventional figures such as household goods store sales, with clothing sales also rising. Elsewhere, the PSNB was in a surplus in January and topped expectations – though the figure is subject to the usual caveats for the period (tax filings). GBP moved higher in an initial reaction, but then pared that move; thereafter, a strong set of PMI metrics took Cable to a session high of 1.3478. Despite the strong metrics, the inner report suggested that “ongoing worrying labour market weakness will likely result in a growing call for further rate cuts”. Market pricing for the BoE meeting was little moved, with the chance of a March cut priced in at 88% whilst April is fully priced.
• JPY slightly weaker this morning, succumbing to the broader USD strength and following the region’s inflation report, which held a dovish skew. In brief, National CPI printed at 1.5% (exp. 1.6%), core was in-line whilst the supercore metric was a touch below the consensus. Elsewhere, PMIs printed better-than-expectations – benefiting from increased optimism following Takaichi’s landslide victory. Following the inflation data, Pantheon Macro wrote that the inflation report “justifies” the BoJ taking time on a rate hike. USD/JPY in a 154.87-155.64 range.
• Other G10s are broadly lower against the USD. Aussie manages to stay afloat, whilst the EUR moves a touch lower. More ECB-related newsflow, this time via the WSJ, which suggested that ECB's Lagarde said her baseline is finishing the ECB term, while she added that she has accomplished a lot but needs to make sure it is solid. On the data front, EZ PMIs continue to confirm the modest recovery picture in the EZ. The strong German report spurred fleeting EUR strength.

Central Banks

• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said policy is in a good place and labour market is in a better position after 75bps of cuts, adds inflation continues to decline outside goods sector. said:We have more work to do to get inflation down, but don't want to get behind, or over our skis.
• ECB's Lagarde said her baseline is finishing the ECB term, according to WSJ.
• ECB President Lagarde called for cooperation to 'save global order' in award acceptance speech in New York.
• RBNZ Governor Breman noted that although central bank remains forward focus, monetary policy will adapt based on new information instead of following a predetermined path. The path back to 2% inflation has been bumpy, but expects inflation to be within the target range in Q1. Central bank is confident inflation will return to 2% midpoint over the next 12 months. NZD is not too far from fair value right now.

Fixed Income

• USTs are near enough flat in thin 112-29+ to 113-02 parameters. Specifics for the space are somewhat light thus far as we count down to a packed 13:30GMT data docket and await any further insight on US-Iran tensions before potential SCOTUS opinion(s) at 15:00GMT.
• Gilts had two leads to digest at the open. Stronger-than-expected retail sales, though with caveats, were a bearish driver as the data doesn't push BoE's Bailey (or any of the hawks, particularly focused on Mann) towards voting for a cut in March vs April; however, ultimately, the data will have little impact on that discussion. Separately, a larger-than-expected government PSNB surplus in January served as a bullish driver. Gilts came off best levels alongside EGBs into the morning's UK PMIs, a series that printed above consensus across the board. Within the series, S&P's Williamson wrote that "relatively modest price pressures being signalled and ongoing worrying labour market weakness will likely result in a growing call for further rate cuts".
• Bunds spent the morning firmer, with gains of 20 ticks at best, notching a 129.45 peak, strength that seemed to just be a continuation of recent gains. Thereafter, the benchmark fell from best and moved to near-enough unchanged on the session at a 129.28 trough following the morning's PMIs, which were generally strong and particularly so for manufacturing, which unexpectedly returned to expansionary territory for Germany for the first time in over 3.5 years.
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.25% April 2029 bonds, b/c 3.89, avg. yield 4.3014%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are taking a breather, with both WTI and Brent trading subdued, though still near highs for the week, due to the heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. US President Trump yesterday reiterated that Iran has 10-15 days to strike a deal, or else something bad will happen. However, during a report by the WSJ, which stated that Trump is reportedly weighing a limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end of USD 65.86-67.03/bbl and 71.10-72.34/bbl, respectively.
• In the precious metal space, spot gold was aided by the ongoing geopolitical tension, with the yellow metal crossing the USD 5,000/oz mark to the upside overnight. The dollar has waned from its best levels throughout the European session after finding resistance at Thursday's high, thus underpinning gold prices. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 4,981.58-5,042.37/oz and USD 77.47-81.20/oz, respectively.
• Copper prices are also firmer, tracking broader risk sentiment in the European session. Otherwise, a fresh macro catalyst has been lacking for the red metal, especially with the Chinese market on holiday. 3M LME copper trades at the upper range of USD 12.781-12.895k/t.
• Iranian Oil Minister said cooperation with the US on oil is possible.
• Hungarian government to release 250k tonnes of crude oil from its strategic reserves after Druzhba oil flow stopped.
• US ambassador to India said active negotiations are underway with India's Energy Ministry on the import of Venezuelan oil.
• Goldman Sachs sees significant upside to gold price forecasts on further private sector diversification when expressed through call option structures.
• US President Trump said 50mln bbls of Venezuelan oil are on the way to Houston and US-Venezuela energy cooperation is going well.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin reiterates that there's no confirmed date set for a new round of talks with Ukraine.
• Ukraine's President Zelensky said he's ready to discuss with the US about compromises.
• Next round of Russia-Ukraine talks is reportedly possible next week, via TASS.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump reportedly weighs limited strike to force Iran into nuclear deal, according to WSJ; President considers a range of military options but said he still prefers diplomacy. Trump is considering an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal, in an attempt to pressure Tehran into an agreement but fall short of a full-scale attack that could see a major retaliation. Sources add, the opening fire, which if authorized, could come within days, would target a few military or government sites. If Iran still refused to comply with Trump’s directive to end its nuclear enrichment, the US would respond with a broad campaign against regime facilities.
• Semafor, on US President Trump reviewing his options regarding Iran, writes "He hasn’t made a decision yet, though people close to the president see an attack as growing more likely by the day."
• Iran said in letter to UN Secretary General and members of the Security Council that if they are attacked, all bases, facilities and assets of hostile force in the region will constitute legitimate targets within the framework of Iran's defensive response.
• Palestinian media reported Israeli warplanes launched a raid on the Al Tufar neighbourhood in Gaza City, according to Sky News Arabia.

Geopolitics: Others

• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov discusses Iranian nuclear program with Iranian counterpart, TASS reported.
• China is monitoring US military aircraft movements over Yellow Sea, according to Global Times.
• NORAD said it detected and tracked two Tu-95s and two Su-35s and one A-50 operating Alaskan ADIZ on February 19th, while it launched several aircraft to intercept and positively identify, and escort the aircraft until they departed the Alaskan ADIZ.
• New Zealand provides a Russia sanctions update which includes a designation of 23 individuals, 13 entities, and 100 vessels, while it lowered the oil price cap on Russian oil from USD 47.60/bbl to USD 44.10/bbl.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Dec Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.77%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.79%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 4.4%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A Personal Consumption, est. 2.42%, prior 3.5%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A GDP Price Index, est. 2.8%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.6%, prior 2.9%
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.35, prior 52.4
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53, prior 52.7
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.1, prior 53
• 9:45 am: United States Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation
• 10:00 am: United States Dec New Home Sales, est. 730k
• 10:00 am: United States Feb F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 57.25, prior 57.3
• 12:45 pm: United States Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Regulation Conference
• 3:30 pm: United States Fed’s Musalem Appears on Fox Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I'm supposed to be on hols today playing golf off the junior tees, for the first time since early October, with three-quarter power swings accompanying my twins on the last day of half-term. However, as it's a holiday week I'm heroically holding the fort until this has been sent out. It's now just over 4 months since back fusion surgery and I'm starting to return to light golf. Sadly the nerve symptoms in the leg are no different but I'm told it could take a year to tell if the surgery has made a difference and the nerve repairs itself. I've done my rehab every day for well over 2 months now so this reflects my obsession with golf more than anything else. My wife shakes her head as I twist myself into all sorts of shapes most evenings in front of the TV.

As I leave to do my two hour warm-up to limber up muscles I haven't used for 4 months, markets on both sides of the Atlantic reversed their gains yesterday as geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US took center stage. The S&P 500 (-0.28%) and STOXX 600 (-0.53%) both fell, while the price of Brent crude registered its largest two-day jump since October 2025, back when the US announced sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies. It was up +2.20% yesterday to its highest level since July and this morning is +0.49% at $72.01/bbl, having traded as low as $66.85 just before Europe closed on Tuesday.

The latest developments saw President Trump seemingly issue an ultimatum to Iran, suggesting that 10 to 15 days was the maximum he would allow for talks to continue and that Iran must make a “meaningful deal” or else “bad things would happen”. Those comments came as the US has deployed aircraft and naval ships to the Middle East ahead of a possible strike on Iran. Later in the day, the Wall Street Journal reported that while President Trump had not yet decided on military action, he could authorise a limited strike within days, and this would then be followed by a broader US campaign against the regime if Iran failed to comply.

So that led to a sell-off in markets, with 60% of the S&P 500 down on the day, as investors pulled back over fears of geopolitical conflict. The Nasdaq (-0.31%) and Magnificent 7 (-0.21%) also declined. Bonds were caught between the inflationary consequences and the risk-off mood, with 2yr (-0.3bps) and 10yr (-1.6bps) Treasury yields moving slightly lower. Against this risk-off backdrop, gold (+0.37%) poked back up above $5k before closing at $4,999/oz while silver (+1.69%) also outperformed. The VIX volatility index (+0.61pts) crept back above 20 to close at 20.23. This morning, US and European equity futures are back up a couple of tenths and Gold and 10yr USTs are largely unchanged.

Adding to the cautious mood in markets were a couple of stories that rekindled lingering concerns over the US economy. One was a resurfacing of private credit worries that we saw last autumn, after Blue Owl Capital announced it wouldn’t re-open withdrawals from one of its retail-focused private credit funds. The company’s shares tumbled -5.93% after the news, also weighing on other listed private equity companies, such as Blackstone (-5.37%), Apollo (-5.21%) and KKR (-1.89%). Another was a cautious outlook from Walmart (-1.38%) as its full-year earnings forecast missed expectations, with the company’s CFO saying “it’s prudent to be somewhat measured with the outlook right now” amid the uneven US economy.

The ongoing worries over Iran meant that less attention was given to a handful of notable US data releases that trickled in. Initial jobless claims were better than expected in the week ending February 14, declining from 227k to only 206k (vs 225k expected). That meant claims more than reversed their spike two weeks earlier, which may have been affected by the extreme winter weather across the US. The release also corresponds to the survey week for payrolls so an encouraging sign for that print in a couple of weeks’ time. There was less comforting data released later in the day that showed January pending home sales at -0.8% vs +2.0% m/m expected (-1.2% vs +2.3% expected y/y).
Meanwhile, US goods trade data showed a larger-than-expected deficit for December (-$98.5bn vs -$86.0bn expected), as imports rose +3.6% m/m, while exports fell -1.7% m/m. This puts the latest monthly deficit largely in line with levels of around $100bn seen in the final few months before President Trump’s election in late 2024, after what had been a very volatile 2025 as initial import front-running was followed by a sharp fall after Liberation Day. However, while the aggregate trade position of the US has not changed much, we’ve seen some big redirection of trade. Notably, the latest data highlights the extent that US-China decoupling, with China now accounting for only 7% of US imports, down from 13% in 2024 and above 20% prior to President Trump’s first China tariffs in 2018.

Looking ahead to today, attention will focus on December core PCE and Q4 US GDP. For the former, DB is at +0.4% vs. +0.2% in November, with consensus a tenth lower. Although core CPI was better than expected last week, the read-through for January core PCE wasn't quite so benign. Our economists expect Q4 real GDP growth to slow to +2.5% annualized (+2.8% consensus), a step down after Q3’s +4.4% pace. A sizable portion of that deceleration—roughly 70bps—reflects the drag from the record long shutdown.

Back in Europe, equities reversed course amidst fears of a US attack on Iran, with a few countries potentially taking a stance or action. For instance, the Times reported yesterday that the UK has blocked the Trump administration from using its joint bases for strikes on Iran, whilst Poland’s Prime Minister urged its citizens in the country to leave Iran, saying that the possibility of a conflict is “very real”, according to Politico. Against this backdrop, the STOXX 600 (-0.53%), CAC 40 (-0.36%), DAX (-0.93%), and FTSE 100 (-0.55%) all fell. Industrials were amongst the worst hit, largely due to a steep fall in Airbus (-6.75%) shares after the company missed expectations in its forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in 2026. In fixed income, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OAT (+0.4bps), and BTP (+0.4bps) all moved marginally higher.

In Asia, Mainland China is still closed for the holidays but the Hang Seng (-0.60%) has reopened for the first time this week. The Nikkei (-1.17%) is following the global risk off move from yesterday but the Kospi is continuing its tag as one of the best markets in 2026 with a +2.21% increase. It's now up over +37% in the 7 weeks of 2026 so far.

Overnight we have also received Japan’s CPI for January, which came in a touch below consensus for the headline (+1.5% vs +1.6% est) and core-core (+2.6% vs +2.7%) measures, although the latter still comfortably sits above 2%. Core CPI came in as expected (+2.0% y/y). The easing in core measures over the last few months will validate the BoJ and PM Takaichi’s views from last year that a good portion of the early 2025 price pressures was temporary, with the question now being where those underlying price pressures will settle, especially with a stimulus package from the incoming new administration high on the agenda. Separately, Japan Feb PMIs rose, most notably in manufacturing (52.8 vs 51.5 prior). So that was an encouraging sign, given capital investment is a big priority of Takaichi’s.

To the day ahead now, we’ll get the US, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone February PMIs, US December PCE, personal income, personal spending, Q4 GDP, December new home sales, UK January public finances, retail sales, Germany January PPI, Eurozone Q4 negotiated wages, Canada December retail sales, January industrial product price index, raw materials price index, Denmark Q4 GDP. Central bank events include Fed’s Logan and Bostic speak.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:29

EssilorLuxottica Logs Worst Week In Nearly Four Years As Apple Eyes AI Smart Glasses

Shares of EssilorLuxottica SA are on track for their worst weekly decline in nearly four years, as competition in the smart-glasses market intensified this week following reports that Apple plans to launch AI-powered smart glasses in 2027.

EssilorLuxottica manufactures the smart glasses that Meta sells under the Ray-Ban partnership. These glasses are in the sub-$500 category, which proves that affordability wins. Meta nailed that sweet spot in pricing, while Tim Cook's $3,500 Vision Pro has been an epic bust and failed to achieve mass adoption.

It's not just Apple. Citigroup analyst Veronika Dubajova noted this week that her team "expects a number of competitive launches in the smart eyewear market over the next 12 to 24 months."

Bloomberg-tracked Wall Street analyst ratings show no meaningful wave of downgrades following this week's Apple news, with roughly 93% of covering analysts maintaining a "Buy" recommendation.

Stifel analyst Cedric Rossi said that the entry of Apple and Google into the smart-glasses market represents more of a catalyst than a threat. "Their presence should accelerate consumer awareness and expand the total addressable market," he told clients earlier this week, adding that EssilorLuxottica "retains several key competitive advantages."

Shares of EssilorLuxottica in Paris are down about 10% this week, marking their largest weekly decline since the first week of March 2022.

From the 2025 peak, shares are down 26%.

Goldman analyst Jerry Shen recently published a detailed view of the AI and AR glasses supply chain, breaking it down by the companies that supply the critical components behind these devices (see report).

Tim Cook blew it with Vision Pro ... Meta takes the win.

Apple has to focus on affordability ...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:20

Europe's Civilizational War Will Be Bloody

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

It seems as if every month a new story comes out of Britain warning about the likelihood of future civil war.  Retired colonel Richard Kemp recently gave a television interview during which he warned that the “Islamification” of the United Kingdom would lead to “inevitable conflict.”  

Several British academics specializing in the preconditions for civil conflict, including professors David Betz and Michael Rainsborough, have argued the same point.

Kemp’s point of view carries the added weight of someone who has witnessed insurgent fighting firsthand.  A former commander who carried out counter-insurgency operations in Northern Ireland, led British forces in Afghanistan, and held intelligence roles in Westminster, Kemp says Islamic immigrants’ refusal to integrate into British society means that things in the U.K. are “getting bad” and about to “get worse.”  Among other provocative comments that will no doubt ruffle the feathers of Britain’s “ruling class,” Kemp notes, “There were more British Muslims with the Taliban than in the British Army.”

The combat veteran argues that Britain’s political class has failed citizens by putting them in harm’s way and is simultaneously incapable of mitigating its failures due to suffocating concerns for what can be said out loud.  “No government,” Kemp argues, “has the guts to stop…the Islamification of the U.K.”  Consequently, ordinary Brits now need to prepare for the likelihood of “civil war in Europe.”  Describing the looming conflict in the U.K. as a far more serious and deadly situation than what gripped Northern Ireland for decades, Kemp predicts that the coming civil war will involve “indigenous British and some of the immigrant population and the British government all on three different sides fighting against each other.”

Drawing on his experience with insurgent forces, the retired colonel blames disenfranchisement in Britain for the future violence: “The big problem that British people have is they don’t have political choice.  We don’t really live in a democracy….Whatever party you vote for, you get the same policies.  That applies also to immigration and to the way in which the Islamic population is allowed to grow in numbers and dominance.”  As academics Betz and Rainsborough have also argued, Kemp sees the unwillingness of the U.K.’s political class to respect the will of voters with regards to immigration, Brexit, and the preservation of traditional culture as the proximate cause of the civil war to come.

Democratic institutions provide citizen-voters with a “release valve” through which they can express pent-up frustration without resorting to violence.  The problem is that a political “uniparty” operates in the U.K., as it does throughout most of the West.  It doesn’t matter whether Brits hand power to a Labour or Tory prime minister; they get non-stop Islamic immigration regardless.  When native Brits publicly protest the “Islamification” of the U.K., both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  When native Brits march through downtown cities to condemn Islamic rape gangs and Islamic terrorism, both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  When native Brits rally to prevent the construction of super-mosques in rural parts of Britain, both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  Therefore, citizens in the U.K. have learned that voting accomplishes nothing and that their so-called political “leaders” are incapable of defending British lives or British ways of life.

The British pot is boiling, and Kemp adds his voice to a growing chorus of professionals with expertise in violent civil conflicts who predict a war-ravaged kingdom in the near future. 

 “I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hand rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing,” Kemp stated in another interview.  “I think there is every likelihood” of  “civil war in the U.K. in the coming years.”

What Kemp describes in the U.K. is occurring all over Europe.  While members of the continent’s “elite” political ruling class have spent the last several decades obsessing about the weather and how to make the world “green,” technological innovation, entrepreneurial spirit, and industrial self-sufficiency have diminished.  Although most nations of Europe have replaced historic monarchies with forms of representative democracy, a class of aristocratic nobles has managed to insinuate itself into the powerful positions of “representative” government.  Perhaps because of this feudal mentality, European politicos cannot resist the appeal of centralized, top-down, government-controlled economies.  While “elites” micro-manage European industry and commerce and choose “winners” and “losers” as lords do vassals, free markets malfunction.  The end result is that Europeans get poorer, have fewer babies, and perpetuate a century of decline.

Europe’s aristocratic ruling class has responded to this demographic decline by inviting third-world migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East to become citizens of Europe.  Rather than successfully addressing the continent’s generational crisis by replacing local babies with foreign ones, European “elites” have engineered a certain “clash” between Western and Islamic civilizations.  In the U.K. alone, ten major cities — including Birmingham, Bradford, Manchester, and parts of London — are on their way to having majority-Muslim populations over the next decade or two.  These are historically blue-collar areas where native Brits have gotten only poorer as foreign nationals take over neighborhoods that locals once called home.  Mosques are rising everywhere.  Islamic groceries, restaurants, festivals, and religious celebrations replace the food and customs of local families whose presence goes back centuries.  There is no social integration of any kind.

As economic conditions continue to decline and cultural flashpoints become more frequent, globalist politicians who praise “multiculturalism” as if it were a virtue and repeat, “Diversity is our strength,” as if it were a divine truth are about to discover how dangerous it is to mix many incompatible cultures together.  Like a carbonated beverage shaken without any concern for the mess, the cultural pressure within these Islamified European cities is ready to explode.

As retired colonel Richard Kemp argues, this cultural explosion will be much worse because Europe’s political “ruling class” has prevented voters from making course corrections that are popular with the public but unpopular with European “elites.”  In France, the Netherlands, Germany, Romania, and elsewhere, ruling “elites” use institutional gamesmanship to block “populist” political parties from coming to (or exercising) power.  Anti-immigration political candidates are prosecuted for “hate crimes,” “Russian collusion,” or other made-up crimes.  Unelected aristocrats on the European Council secretly fund pro-immigration candidates in national elections and censor European citizens who express outrage on social media platforms over mass migration from foreign cultures.  In national parliaments and the European Union, members continue to pass laws that effectively criminalize public dissent to official government policies.

Europe’s political “ruling class” has angered a growing share of the European public, and rather than address the reasons for the public’s anger, that same “ruling class” has chosen to silence ordinary Europeans and threaten them with prosecution and imprisonment.  

When all of the “release valves” for a civil society have been welded shut, society stops being “civil.”  

Europe’s “elites” have created the conditions for a bloody civil war — because entire civilizations will be warring against each other.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:05

VW's 20% Cost-Cutting Plan Exposes Germany's Industrial Crisis

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

For too long, Germany’s economy has watched political developments from the sidelines – perhaps far too long. The cost pressures triggered by the energy transition and Brussels’ extensive regulatory policies are now reflected in business results.

Following Stellantis and Opel, Volkswagen on Monday announced sweeping measures to confront the existential economic crisis. CEO Oliver Blume presented a cost-saving program that, according to Manager Magazin, is expected to reduce global company costs by one-fifth by the end of 2028.
The internal overhaul was presented in mid-January by Blume and CFO Arno Antlitz. A concrete statement from the company on its strategy has not yet been issued. Plant closures in Germany are reportedly also under discussion.

Collapse in Earnings

Pressure to act is immense. The final results for last year are not yet available, but after three quarters, an operating profit (EBIT) drop of roughly 48 percent year-on-year to around €9.9 billion is emerging. The EBIT margin, a key measure of profitability, fell to 3.05 percent from 5.87 percent.

Revenue stagnated at around €324 billion, with vehicle sales of roughly nine million units, down 0.5 percent. The fourth quarter in particular saw a 4.9 percent decline, with China and North America suffering the largest losses. European sales remained relatively stable with modest gains, though the negative trend accelerated toward year-end. This may have been the trigger prompting management to implement drastic cost-saving measures.

Free cash flow also collapsed by 90 percent to €514 million, further limiting the company’s ability to invest in R&D and plant development. Fundamentally, cost consolidation remains the only lever to create breathing room amid fierce global competition – particularly with China and increasingly with the United States.

Germany’s Industrial Base Bleeds

By 2030, 35,000 jobs are set to be cut in Germany alone. VW’s core brand currently employs around 130,000 workers. The reduction will be carried out without layoffs, using severance packages and partial retirement plans. Fewer young specialists, less dynamism, fewer jobs – the visible consequence of Germany’s energy-policy isolation and the EU’s climate-policy path.

The plants in Wolfsburg and Zwickau are under particular efficiency pressure. Structural production relocations to cheaper locations such as Hungary, as well as further consolidation in China and possibly the U.S., are underway. Germany’s aggressive climate regulations are forcing companies like Volkswagen to recalibrate their global strategy.

Most investments now flow to China, followed by Mexico, Brazil, and the U.S. In Chattanooga, Tennessee, the plant currently produces SUVs like the Atlas and Passat, as well as the electric ID.4. Significant production expansion in Germany is no longer on the agenda.

Volkswagen is also pushing suppliers to cut costs, heavily affecting Germany’s SME sector. The VW crisis is thus also a crisis for the German Mittelstand, where a large portion of pre-production value is generated for the country’s industrial core.

Structural Weakness

Volkswagen’s efficiency program is not a routine cost-cutting measure but a visible expression of structural weakness. Years of the diesel scandal, a largely failed transition to e-mobility, and intense pressure from Chinese competitors are culminating in a large-scale company overhaul.

Volkswagen, partly owned by the state of Niedersachsen, has become a global symbol of the decline of the “Made in Germany” label. It is astonishing that Germany allowed its technological edge and energy security to be sacrificed to a destructive political ideology – only to hastily relocate value creation to cheaper sites like China.

Thousands of suppliers and municipal treasurers must watch the decline unfold, as the traditional automotive regions around Stuttgart and Wolfsburg face fiscal challenges that can only be temporarily mitigated with special funds. Entire industrial ecosystems risk disappearing, with knowledge and capital following the companies abroad.

The government’s idea of replacing lost industrial capacity with military production is both reckless and unworkable. Civilian automotive output cannot be simply converted into tank manufacturing, regardless of subsidies or state intervention. The loss of high-value civilian production cannot be offset in this way.

Volkswagen’s decline should make clear the full extent of the political missteps in Germany and Europe. Within the current ideological framework, reforms are insufficient. A thorough reassessment of Agenda 2030 and the Green Deal is required to mitigate the economic and social fallout facing Germany.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 07:20

Supertanker Rates Soar As War Fears Put Strait Of Hormuz Chokepoint At Risk

Brent crude futures rose to a six-month high by the end of the week, with prices trading above $71 a barrel (charts here). President Trump said Tehran has 10 to 15 days to reach a deal with Washington over its nuclear program, as US forces assembled across the Middle East. With war risks rising, the cost of chartering a supertanker is soaring.

Bloomberg cites VLCC earnings data from the Baltic Exchange showing that rates on the Middle East-to-China shipping route have tripled this year to about $151,208 per day, the highest rate since 2020.

Traders are hyper-focused on the potential for disruption at the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, which could further spike risk premia for charters. Tightness is also being amplified by ownership concentration.

"Military action in the Middle East will likely take VLCC rates to levels not seen since 2019," Oil Brokerage Ltd. analyst Anoop Singh said.

Anxieties are building in crude markets, especially ahead of the weekend, after President Trump said Tehran had about 10 to 15 days to strike a deal over its nuclear program.

"We're either going to get a deal, or it's going to be unfortunate for them," Trump told reporters Thursday aboard Air Force One.

On a deadline, Trump said he thought 10 to 15 days was "pretty much" the "maximum" he would allow for the negotiations period. "I would think that would be enough time," he said.

Bloomberg noted that the military force the US is building in the region is the largest the US has deployed since 2003, adding, "It dwarfs the military buildup that Trump ordered off the coast of Venezuela in the weeks before he ousted President Nicolas Maduro."

Bryan Clark, a defense analyst for the Hudson Institute and a former Navy strategy officer, told the outlet, "With Iran's air defenses largely neutralized by previous US and Israeli strikes, the US strike fighters would operate largely with impunity over Iranian airspace."

"There is always the risk of downed pilots, but I think the bigger risk is to ships. The same cruise and ballistic missiles the Iranians gave to the Houthis could be turned against US ships in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea," Clark said.

Kenneth Hvid, CEO at Teekay Tankers, recently told investors that the combination of consolidation in the VLCC segment and potential war risks in the Middle East means the move in tanker rates is "more in anticipation of something happening," adding, "It's just a situation we need to watch."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Netflix Calls Paramount’s Bluff: Netflix gave Warner Bros. a seven-day waiver to hear Paramount’s “best and final” offer, essentially daring David Ellison to put real money on the table or walk away. A masterclass in deal-making psychology — and a Godfather reference just waiting to happen. One week for both sides to show the actual cards here… (Spyglass)

• The 401(k) Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In on Retirement: Private equity firms are flooding into America’s $14 trillion retirement savings market, mirroring crypto’s 2024 election strategy to loosen regulations and gain access to ordinary workers’ nest eggs. Wall Street power players are squeezing into the US retirement industry. Its gatekeepers are succumbing. (Bloomberg) see also As Private-Market Momentum Continues to Grow, Market Infrastructure Improvements Rise Too: Private markets are exploding toward retirement plans, but the lack of unified infrastructure and transparency poses serious risks as retail investors get their first real taste of alternatives. Additional retail and retirement-plan demand are expected to broaden distribution of private markets, but they will also bring scrutiny and comparisons to public markets. (Chief Investment Officer)

• Billionaires’ Low Taxes Are Becoming a Problem for the Economy: Tax avoidance by the superwealthy is an economic issue as well as a political one. The top 1% now holds 32% of U.S. wealth while paying historically low tax rates, creating concentration risk that could crater the entire economy in the next market correction. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Quiet Architect of Trump’s Global Trade War: Jamieson Greer, a low-key lawyer from a working-class background, is rewriting the rules of the global economy at the president’s behest. (New York Times)

• This Viral AI Project Went From Side Hustle to Coveted Prize in Three Months: After a fierce competition between the biggest AI labs, OpenAI hired the creator of the viral OpenClaw personal AI assistant platform. A small AI project caught fire online and quickly drew acquisition interest. How the speed of AI development has compressed the startup lifecycle from years to weeks. (Wall Street Journal) but see The End of the Office?: Andrew Yang warns that AI will “disembowel” white-collar jobs within 12-18 months, potentially cutting the 70 million office workers by 20-50% and collapsing the entire ecosystem of downtown businesses that depend on them. “If you are one of the professionals who is likely to be affected, I’m sorry.” (Andrew Yang)

• How Paris’ working-class dining experience is reshaping restaurant economics in France:  Historic Parisian bouillon restaurants are back, proving that simple menus, volume purchasing, and fast table turnover can create sustainable, affordable dining—and inspiring a global rethink of restaurant economics. It was here that he dished up comforting yet simple, hot meals that wouldn’t burn a hole in even the most cash-strapped wallets of the likes of the workers at the local Les Halles wholesale market, formerly known as the “belly of Paris”, named after the title of the Emile Zola novel. (The Conversation)

• What just one alcoholic drink a day really does to your body: Even small amounts of alcohol can seriously affect your health if you drink daily. The “moderate drinking is fine” consensus keeps eroding. New research on what even a single daily drink does to your liver, brain, and cancer risk. (The Times)

• The US coup: one year on: The event that triggered my nervous system was Elon Musk’s DOGE illegally entering the US treasury and gaining access to the entire nation’s personal and financial data: a system-level hack on the entire US population. This was a power grab that could not be undone. Data is like a genie. It cannot be put back in the bottle. That one act – that was then replicated across the federal government – was the beginning of what I believed, still believe, is a technoauthoritarian state. (Carole Cadwalladr)

• How Olympic skier Hunter Hess gets his superhuman balance: Want to have better balance? You can learn a thing or two from one of the best freeskiers in the world. Olympic halfpipe skier Hunter Hess pulls off gravity-defying tricks because his proprioception is finely tuned—and experts explain how regular people can train the same balance skills with simple exercises. (Washington Post)

• U2 Propaganda Days of Ash: U2 surprise-released a politically charged six-track EP ahead of their 2026 album, with tracks about defiance, war, and lost lives that Bono said were “impatient to be out in the world.” ‘Six postcards from the present… wish we weren’t here’ In advance of a new album in late 2026, the new EP is a self-contained collection of five new songs and a poem – ‘American Obituary’, ‘The Tears Of Things’, ‘Song Of The Future’, ‘Wildpeace’, ‘One Life At A Time’ and ‘Yours Eternally’ (ft. Ed Sheeran & Taras Topolia) – an immediate response to current events and inspired by the many extraordinary and courageous people fighting on the frontlines of freedom (U2.com)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Hilary Allen, Professor of Law at the American University Washington College of Law. She specializes in financial regulation, banking law, securities regulation, and technology law, with a particular focus on how new financial technologies like fintech, crypto, and AI intersect with financial stability and public policy.

 

Detroit Automakers Take $50 Billion Hit as EV Bubble Bursts

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Spot The Odd One Out: US Defense Spending By President

Since 1997, U.S. defense spending has moved through multiple cycles, but the long-term trajectory is upward.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, tracks National Defense (Function 050) budget authority in constant 2025 dollars and shows how totals changed under each president and party, culminating in a proposed record $1.5 trillion budget for 2027P.

Data is sourced from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Historical Tables, Table 5.1 (National Defense budget authority), supplemented by Reuters reporting for the 2027 proposal. It also leverages analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Steady Growth Through the 2000s and 2010s

In the late 1990s, under President Clinton, U.S. defense spending sat around the mid-$500 billion level in real terms.

Spending rose significantly in the 2000s during the Bush years amid the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, reaching levels above $900 billion before 2010.

Continued high budgets carried throughout the Obama administration, driven by ongoing post-9/11 commitments and modernization efforts.

Fiscal Year Real Budget (2025$) President 1997 $542B Clinton 1998 $535B Clinton 1999 $564B Clinton 2000 $569B Clinton 2001 $609B Bush 2002 $648B Bush 2003 $798B Bush 2004 $837B Bush 2005 $834B Bush 2006 $888B Bush 2007 $971B Bush 2008 $1.04T Bush 2009 $1.05T Obama 2010 $1.06T Obama 2011 $1.03T Obama 2012 $955B Obama 2013 $843B Obama 2014 $846B Obama 2015 $813B Obama 2016 $837B Obama 2017 $862B Trump 2018 $931B Trump 2019 $938B Trump 2020 $963B Trump 2021 $902B Biden 2022 $922B Biden 2023 $908B Biden 2024 $905B Biden 2025 $962B Trump 2026 $962B Trump 2027 (proposed) $1.5T Trump Recent Trends and Record Levels

In the early 2020s, spending remained high under Presidents Trump and Biden, with budgets around $900 billion to over $1 trillion in real terms. The 2026 defense budget approved by Congress reached $901 billion, while proposals for 2027 have pushed that figure even higher.

Recently, President Donald Trump announced a proposal for a $1.5 trillion military budget in 2027, representing roughly a 50% increase over current levels, aimed at expanding capabilities and accelerating modernization.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out America’s $38 Trillion Mountain of Debt on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 05:45

Just When You Thought The BBC Couldn't Get Any More Repugnant...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The BBC is under fire for a headline that branded 23-year-old conservative student Quentin Deranque as a “far-right student” after he was fatally beaten by a mob of far-left militants in Lyon, France. Critics are calling it blatant bias, turning the victim into the villain while downplaying the attackers’ extremism.

This isn’t just sloppy journalism—it’s narrative warfare, shielding violent leftists and ignoring the real threat of Antifa-style thugs running rampant in Europe.

Authorities charged nine far-left militants with the fatal beating during a protest. The suspects are linked to the militant group La Jeune Garde (Young Guard), including a parliamentary assistant from the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.

The attack stemmed from Deranque providing security for the anti-mass migration feminist group Collectif Némésis, who were protesting a conference featuring MEP Rima Hassan. Tensions escalated when far-left groups confronted the demonstrators, leading to chaotic clashes.

Videos shared online captured the violence, including attempts to seize banners and at least one woman being knocked to the ground. Deranque was isolated, viciously set upon by masked attackers, and left for dead after repeated blows to the head.

According to Collectif Némésis leader Alice Cordier, “A member of our security…was lynched by the Jeune Garde Antifa.” The group added, “His attackers were masked, armed with reinforced gloves and tear gas, leaving little doubt about the premeditated nature of their attack.”

Deranque, a pious Catholic mathematics student, suffered severe brain injuries consistent with a cerebral hemorrhage. He was rushed to Édouard-Herriot Hospital but was later declared brain-dead.

The BBC’s disgusting headline, “Nine arrested in France over death of far-right student,” ignited backlash from conservatives. It framed Deranque as “far-right” and didn’t even mention that he was brutally murdered, just that he died, nor that the mob that set upon him and ended his life were far left militants.

His death came about because he was brutally MURDERED by FAR-LEFT thugs. Perhaps that should also be mentioned @BBCWorld? https://t.co/DWq2dfffj6

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) February 18, 2026

The article is as bad as the headline pic.twitter.com/avovwMPEnu

— blank (@MarconiBalls) February 17, 2026

FAR LEFT murder a young man!

Fixed it for you.

Defund the BBC!

— Tommy Robinson ?? (@TRobinsonNewEra) February 17, 2026

The far left kill a student and you still
1.Refuse to call them what they are, and
2.Take one last swipe at their dead victim.

This isn’t reporting. It’s narrative management.

Defund the BBC.

— Avi Yemini (@OzraeliAvi) February 17, 2026

In ten words @BBCNews manages five examples of disinformation.

Let me give it a go:

Nine far-left thugs beat student to death for protecting women.

— Josh Howie (@joshxhowie) February 18, 2026

???After a mob of Antifa thugs beat 23-year-old Quentin Deranque to death in Lyon, there have been marches and memorials for the young man, who was a nationalist, Catholic, and mathematics student.

French politician Eric Zemmour says murder is not just an isolated incident, but… pic.twitter.com/XFI9Tf11FJ

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 16, 2026

In Paris, far-left activists tore down posters tributing Deranque, while President Emmanuel Macron condemned the killing but urged calm.

 

Anthropologist Florence Bergaud-Blackler warned, “The circumstances of Quentin’s death as he came to protect the women of Collectif Némésis are a foreshadowing of the civil war that is looming. The petty servile foot soldiers of anti-fascism are the cannon fodder of Islamism which seeks to overthrow our liberal and egalitarian social order and lock women away. Young Quentin is a hero.”

 

The media’s spin, like the BBC’s “Student death puts French far-left under pressure,” minimizes the murder as “just a death,” ignoring the blatant political lynching.

 

The British state funded broadcaster is already under intense scrutiny owing to President Trump’s $10 billion defamation lawsuit concerning deceptive editing of his January 6, 2021, speech. The suit accuses the BBC of splicing footage to falsely imply Trump incited violence at the Capitol, omitting his calls for peaceful protest.

 

District Judge Roy Altman rejected the BBC’s bid to delay discovery, paving the way for a two-week trial in Miami. Trump’s team blasts the edit as “false, defamatory, disparaging, and inflammatory,” while a BBC spokesman said, “As we have made clear previously, we will be defending this case. We are not going to make further comment on ongoing legal proceedings.”

 

This follows internal turmoil at the BBC, with top executives resigning amid the fallout, and an FCC probe into potential “news distortion.” Leaked memos condemned the edit as “completely misleading.”

 

As Europe grapples with unchecked far-left extremism, shielded by biased media and complicit politicians, incidents like this expose the real dangers to freedom and safety.

 

Quentin Deranque stood for protecting women against threats—his sacrifice demands accountability, not smears. Meanwhile, the BBC’s globalist propaganda faces its own reckoning in court.

 

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

 

">">">">">">">">"> Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 03:30

Danish Navy Intercepts, Detains Iran-Flagged Cargo Ship

Denmark detained a container vessel previously blacklisted by Washington under last year's sweeping Iran sanctions on Thursday, amid suspicions it was operating under a false flag.

The Nora was seized after authorities determined it was allegedly sailing under the flag of Comoros without authorization. The ship is now anchored in Danish waters pending further investigation, according to reports. It actually appears to be a box ship transporting containers at the time it was intercepted. It raised the Iranian flag under deeply suspicious circumstances, as a patrol boat eyed the vessel, Danish officials say.

AFP via Getty Images

The Danish Maritime Authority believes it to be part of Iran's so-called shadow fleet of tankers. "The Danish Maritime Authority reports that the vessel has been detained due to incorrect registration," the agency said.

Several months ago the vessel went through a name change, which Washington officials believe was in order to keep shipping sanctioned Iranian and Russian exports, and to evade European suspicions while traversing regional waters.

The vessel is said to currently anchored east of Albaek in the northernmost part of Jutland.

It's possible the vessel will eventually be released, as the Danish government explained the ship will be detained until Iran confirms to the agency that the container ship is legitimately registered and certified.

According to more details via a maritime monitoring publication:

Denmark’s TV 2 reports the vessel had gone dark while it was in St. Petersburg, Russia, in mid-January and then sailed west into the Baltic and reached Skagen, where it stopped on January 22. The following day, it anchored less than 20 miles east of Aalbaek, Denmark, where it has remained for the past 28 days.

A Danish patrol ship was spotted near the vessel along with a Danish Armed Forces sea drone. The Danish Maritime Authority reports it questioned the vessel’s registry in Comoros and was informed by the authorities that the ship was “not correctly registered.” Apparently, when they questioned the vessel further, it suddenly raised an Iranian flag, prompting the detention.

Danish outlet TV 2 further reports that the Cerus/Nora had transited Danish waters at least 10 times over the past year during repeated voyages to Saint Petersburg - and each time the vessel allegedly went dark, ceasing transmission of its position data as it neared Russian waters.

BREAKING: Danish authorities have detained the 226-meter container ship Nora, now flying the Iranian flag, east of Aalbæk, after it was found not properly registered with its claimed flag state. Previously sailing under the Comorian flag, the vessel suddenly changed its… pic.twitter.com/vjh2qaOJOm

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) February 19, 2026

The Trump administration is meanwhile contemplating whether to escalate its military pressure on Iran by beginning to directly seize Iranian oil exports. This would be seen by Tehran as an immediate act of war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 02:45

Escobar: Munich (In)Security Conference Targets Re-Colonization Of The Global South

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The path towards 5th Generation War will accelerate. We are entering the next stage of an “omnipresent battlefield.”

No one ever lost money betting on major farce taking over every Munich (In)Security Conference. But the 62nd edition this past weekend did send the Stupidity-O-Meter off the charts.

First of all, the context:

The “rules-based international order” was always a sham and it has now collapsed, as announced in Davos.

Eurasia vs. NATOstan has metastasized into Empire of Chaos, Plunder and Permanent Strikes (with NATO as minor sidekick) vs. the Primakov Quartet, RIIC (Russia-India-Iran-China) and the Global South.

The complex context of course opened the gates for a parade of out of context vociferating nullities, including; the Bratwurst Goldman Sachs Chancellor; the Toxic Medusa in Brussels; that ghastly Estonian with the IQ of a dismembered worm; an array of British twats; and of course the sweaty sweatshirt terrorist actor in Kiev.

But pride of place should belong to little gusano Marco Rubio, who blatantly called for Western supremacy, Europe included, to steal Global South wealth – again. As in Europe helping the US on a re-colonization drive, disguised as “restoration”.

Predictably, the assembled EUrochihuahuas applauded with torrents of yappin’ the spokesman for His Master’s Voice, expressing their sense of “solace” and “reassurance”; after all the neo-Caligula envoy did not threat to invade, annex or sanction anyone – at least for the moment. He even got a standing ovation.

So this is how the indebted-to-oblivion Empire of Chaos and its minions plan to reverse “the West’s managed decline”; to revive “the West’s age of dominance”; and to “renew the greatest civilization in human history”. The Global South has been warned.

China’s Wang Yi was there – but his words of common sense were drowned. No Russians – of course; the recurrent theme of every MSC is to blast Russia like Kingdom Come. And no Iranians – of course, with the exception of the Clown Shah.

Needless to add, there was absolutely no link whatsoever established between the horrors of the Epstein dossier and that death cult in West Asia.

Omnipresent battlefield ahead

Munich has nothing to do with “dialogue”, much less “security”. It is essentially a schmooze fest for the industrial-military complex; heavily tax-subsidized warmongering think tanks; all sorts of harcore militarists; and gutter – mainstream – press.

It will be quite enlightening to hold Munich in contrast to the back-to-back kabuki unrolling this week on Iran and Ukraine – conducted on the imperial camp by those real estate Bismarcks, Witkoff and Kushner. There are no illusions whatsoever – in Tehran or in Moscow.

Neo-Caligula is in fact absolutely terrified because the death cult in West Asia put him between a heavy rock and a very hard place.

He can’t find an acceptable “deal” that allows him to declare victory on Iran over a nuclear agreement that he, himself, destroyed in the first place during Trump 1.0. Iran won’t accept capitulation on any front, especialy because the three fronts – no nuclear enrichment, minimalist ballistic missile program, and no support for the Axis of Resistance – were framed by the death cult in West Asia.

So the only way out is war, as war criminal Netanyahu impressed on neo-Caligula face to face in the White House. There’s no way the US can get away with a “win” scenario – and they were all gamed. Iran has all it takes to make neo-Caligula’s massive armada look like the doomed Spanish Armada.

On Ukraine, proverbial Russian patience is demonstrating signs of strain. Lavrov has been on the record stating that the level of reconciliation and where that process currently stands between Trump 2.0 and Russia has gone nowhere.

At the same time, the SMO – 4 years in effect next week – seems to be no closer to a serious conclusion. There are only two stark options:

1.Even if there is some sort of peace brokered by US-Russia negotiators, there’s no guarantee whatsoever that the Kiev-NATO axis will stop attacking Russian targets, terror-bombing cities and villages, and of course impose “European troops” in a dodgy DMZ.

2.That leaves the really realistic option: to go all the way. That may take years.

Russia must be prepared for extra pain.

Neo-Caligula – surrounded by rabid neo-cons and fierce industrial-military complex interests – will be forced to tighten the oil trade blockade on Russia.

The US for all practical purposes continues to run the proxy war against Russia. US forces in Europe are split between 80% in the office and 20% in the field. US satellite systems get the coordinates for strikes against Russian targets across the Russian Federation; these are processed in Germany by those “in the office” and then transmitted to US advisors on the ground in Ukraine. These are the guys who insert the coordinates in HIMARS. None of that will change in the foreseeable future.

The path towards 5th Generation War will accelerate. We are entering the next stage of an “omnipresent battlefield” – as defined way back in 1999 by PLA colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.

EUrochihuahuas, meanwhile, will make a play for the Black Sea. The Romanians want to set up a European Maritime Security Hub for the Black Sea based on the port of Constanta. That will become a key military infrastructure, part of the EU Black Sea Strategy adopted in May last year.

Predictably, there’s a direct link to connectivity corridors.

EU military will be in theory “protecting” the Middle Corridor – or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

That’s one of the key logistics corridors of the New Silk Roads between China and Europe, bypassing – what else – Russian routes.

The writing is on the wall for Russia. All the way to Odessa – or bust.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 02:00

Brits Spied On Paul Thacker, Matt Taibbi According To 'CONFIDENTIAL' Memo

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

The British media has been consumed the last week over a scandal involving political operatives working for the British Labour Party who hired a PR firm to investigate seven reporters—one of whom is me. One close advisor to Prime Minister Starmer has resigned, and the British government has launched an investigation to uncover these attacks against the media.

A British Labour Party official denied during a phone call that I was a focus of their attention when I called for an explanation a couple days ago. I’m releasing one of the documents leaked to me from a London reporter that shows I was one of the British Labour Party’s targets.

The document is marked “STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL.”

I became a Labour Party “significant person of interest” after I began reporting on the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), in 2023. The CCDH was created by a British think tank called Labour Together, which was run by Josh Simons in 2023. Simons hired the PR firm APCO to spy on myself and other reporters.

Simons is now a Member of Parliament and posted on X “APCO were asked to look into a suspected illegal hack.” However, the Simon’s memo discusses nothing about a hack.

Simons did not return repeated requests for comment that I sent to both his government and private email.

According to emails leaked to me, APCO’s work for Labour Together was overseen by Tom Harper, a former reporter for the British Sunday Times. Tom Harper did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

I became interested in CCDH because American legacy media such as The New York Times and Washington Post were quoting CCDH as purported experts on everything from vaccines, to online hate, misinformation and disinformation, both antisemitism and Islamaphobia, climate denial …. pretty much everything and anything.

But despite living for a decade in DC, I had never heard of CCDH nor their CEO Imran Ahmed.

So what was going on?

In a 2023 investigation for Tablet, I traced CCDH back to London, where they started sometime around 2018. Imran Ahmed, I had learned, was a UK political operative who had worked for the British Labour Party. And Ahmed’s best buddy was another British Labour Party operative named Morgan McSweeney who ran a think tank called Labour Together. McSweeney is widely credited as the architect of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s rise to power, and he served as Starmer’s chief of staff until earlier this month, when he resigned because of a separate scandal connected to Jeffrey Epstein.

Both Ahmed and McSweeney hid that they were behind CCDH for several years, although it later came out that CCDH was based inside McSweeney’s Labour Together think tank. When CCDH landed in America in 2021, they immediately got the attention of the Biden White House and multiple Democratic Party members of Congress. I found this bizarre.

DC is crowded with nonprofits and think thanks fighting for public attention. Yet this tiny nonprofit, run by a guy from London with no DC experience, was getting quoted by White House officials. Here’s how I explained this in Tablet:

For a tiny, unknown, nonprofit to gain so much attention in D.C.’s crowded, competitive policy space is akin to a pudgy, amateur athlete catching the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl, while setting a new world record in the marathon, all in one week.

Digging through CCDH’s tax records, I found a possible explanation for CCDH’s magical success. CCDH’s chairman is Simon Clark, who once worked at the Center for American Progress (CAP), a think tank founded by former Bill Clinton chief of staff John Podesta that supported the Biden administration.

Clark, I figured, must have introduced Ahmed to the Biden White House and Democratic Party officials in DC.

I also tracked some of CCDH’s money back to Hollywood. You can read all the details I reported for Tablet, here: The New Push for Censorship Under the Guise of Combating Hate.

I published some further investigative details about CCDH, here at The DisInformation Chronicle, about a week after my Tablet investigation. In this piece, I reported that CCDH’s reports were rather flimsy and that CCDH’s “head of research” was some British dude named Callum Hood who had no employment history except working at CCDH. I later reported that Callum Hood was also a former Labour Party operative.

Both my investigation in Tablet and my report here at The DisInformation Chronicle stirred up APCO. Here’s a screenshot of what APCO wrote about me in their report to Labour Party offficials.

A whistleblower inside CCDH read my reporting and contacted me in 2024. We spoke dozens of times on the phone, and the whistleblower sent me tons of internal CCDH documents and several of Imran Ahmed’s emails. Based on these documents, I wrote a piece titled, “Election Exclusive: British Advisors to Kamala Harris Hope to “Kill Musk’s Twitter,” that rocketed around the globe.

Citing these documents I released, the State Department began deportation proceedings against Imran Ahmed a few days before Christmas.

The BBC interviewed me about Imran Ahmed’s deportation and I told them it was time for Ahmed to go back to England, because Americans were not going to tolerate his agenda to censor U.S. citizens.

In an interview on The DisInformation Chronicle Podcast with State Department Undersecretary Sarah Rogers, I noted that, by deporting Ahmed when he was so closely tied to Keir Starmer’s government, the State Department was “knocking on the door of the Prime Minister’s office.”

“We have a very special relationship with the British government,” Undersecretary Rogers told me, declining to detail her discussions with Starmer officials. “The issue has been communicated.”

To download the Labour Party’s document on investigating reporters, click the link below.

MEMO PREPARED FOR LABOUR TOGETHER

LABOUR TOGETHER’S DOCUMENT CAN BE DOWNLOADED HERE

The DisInformation Chronicle is a community-supported publication. To receive new posts and support this work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 23:25

IMF Urges Beijing To Curb Industrial Subsidies As Flood Of Chinese Goods Crushes Global Industrial Bases

China's factory overcapacity is the result of Beijing's long-running industrial policies. Years of state support have built more factory capacity than domestic demand can absorb in the world's second-largest economy, flooding global markets with low-priced goods, from EVs to TVs. The end result is a growing risk of hollowing out industrial bases worldwide, and our latest example this week has washed up on Europe's shores in the form of EVs.

China has absolutely killed the European auto market pic.twitter.com/J2AD2zyRea

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

January registrations of Chinese EVs across Europe were certainly eye-opening, signaling the decline of Europe's industrial base (read the note here). As Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey recently warned, "China would love to wipe out the American automotive industry, partly for economic reasons, because it also means we will never be able to fight a war against them..."

It appears the rest of the world is finally getting the memo after more than a decade of Chinese overcapacity flooding global markets and pressuring industrial bases worldwide into collapse.

The International Monetary Fund warned this week that Beijing should significantly scale back state support for industry, citing spillover risks that could undermine manufacturing bases abroad.

China's industrial policies "are giving rise to international spillovers and pressures" and, compounded with soft domestic demand, are making the world's second-largest economy "more reliant on manufacturing exports as a source of growth," the IMF said.

"Industrial policy has enabled tech innovation in some sectors, but overall the impact on the economy has been negative," said Sonali Jain-Chandra, mission chief at the IMF for China and Asia Pacific, who was quoted by the Financial Times. She pointed to "resource misallocation" and "overspending."

IMF data show that China spends roughly 4% of GDP subsidizing companies in critical industries that, in turn, export goods worldwide. It stated that the figure should be reduced to about 2%.

At this point, China should be retooling its economy to boost domestic demand, yet Beijing is leaning heavily on supply-side measures to sustain its industrial dominance.

France's Emmanuel Macron has bemoaned "unbearable imbalances" in trade, while other European leaders and industrial insiders warned last week that carbon costs are squeezing EU industrial competitiveness and need to be fixed urgently.

Meanwhile, the IMF has urged Beijing to move toward a "consumption-led growth" model for its economy, which would involve demand-side reforms to support household consumption.

If countries such as those in Europe fail to respond effectively to the flood of cheap Chinese goods, their industrial bases could suffer lasting damage, potentially proving disastrous in wartime. Under President Trump, the US began to reverse course and repair its industrial base as unipolarity gives way to a dangerous bipolar world.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 23:00

Ex-CIA Analyst Peels Back The US Information Operation In Iran

Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson

As part of the US campaign to engineer a regime change in Iran, the US military and intelligence community are using Operational Preparation of the Environment aka OPE. OPE is defined in joint publications (e.g., JP 3-05 Special Operations) as non-intelligence activities conducted prior to or in preparation for potential military operations to set conditions for success. It encompasses shaping the operational environment through intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, information operations, civil affairs, psychological operations, and other preparatory actions—often in denied or politically sensitive areas.

I believe that one of the major OPE efforts is to convince the US public that the overwhelming majority of Iranians despise the Islamic Republic and want it overthrown. In my opinion, a major player in this OPE is a polling outfit known as GAMAAN. GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran) collaborates with Psiphon VPN, which is widely used across Iran. GAMAAN findings have been consistent in painting a picture of massive opposition to the Iranian regime.

According to GAMAAN polls taken prior to 2025, a significant majority of Iranians — around 70% — oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The highest level of opposition, 81%, occurred during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in late 2022. Support for “the principles of the Islamic revolution and the Supreme Leader” has decreased from 18% in 2022 to 11% in 2024. Opposition to the Islamic Republic is higher among the youth, urban residents, and the highly educated. An overwhelming majority of Iranians (89%) support democracy. Gamaan

Only about 20% of Iranians support the continuation of the Islamic Republic. When asked about preferred alternatives, about 26% favor a secular republic and around 21% support a monarchy. For 11%, the specific form of the alternative system doesn’t matter. About 22% report lacking sufficient information to choose an alternative system.

But what are the funding sources for GAMAAN and Psiphon VPN? Let’s start with GAMAAN. GAMAAN describes itself as an independent, non-profit research foundation registered in the Netherlands. It emphasizes its academic credentials (e.g., founded by scholars at Dutch universities like Tilburg and Utrecht) and innovative online methods (e.g., anonymity sampling via VPNs like Psiphon) to overcome self-censorship in authoritarian contexts.

GAMAAN operates under the supervision of a board including Dr. Ammar Maleki (founder and director), assistant professor of comparative politics at Tilburg University, and Dr. Pooyan Tamimi Arab, associate professor of secular and religious studies at Utrecht University. Maleki is an assistant professor of Comparative Politics and a self-described activist for democracy in his native Iran. Tilburg University Critically, he does not hide his political stance — his Tilburg University profile explicitly states that he is “a pro-democracy activist and political analyst of Iranian politics” and that he tries “to have an impact on political debates around democratization of Iran.”

This is where the picture becomes more contested. GAMAAN has relied on US government-funded VPN provider Psiphon to disseminate its surveys; collaborated with the USAID-funded Tony Blair Institute; and collaborated with and received funding from historian Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, which is in turn supported by the US government-funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

Psiphon is owned and operated by Psiphon Inc., a Canadian corporation based in Ontario. Psiphon was originally developed by the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto, with version 1.0 launching on December 1, 2006, as open-source software. In early 2007, Psiphon, Inc. was established as a Canadian corporation independent of the Citizen Lab and the University of Toronto.

It has a notable funding history. In 2008, Psiphon, Inc. was awarded sub-grants from the US State Department Internet Freedom program, administered by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. In 2010, Psiphon began providing services to the Broadcasting Board of Governors (US), the US Department of State, and the BBC. More recently, in April 2024, the Open Technology Fund (OTF) announced increased long-term funding for Psiphon, with subsequent OTF awards totaling US$18.54 million for 2024 and US$5.87 million for 2025.

The Open Technology Fund (OTF) is administered by the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), an independent federal agency of the US government. USAGM provides OTF with its primary funding through annual grants, which originate from Congressional appropriations under the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs budget. OTF operates as an independent nonprofit corporation (since 2019) but remains a grantee under USAGM’s oversight and governance, as authorized by Congress (e.g., via the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act).

So while Psiphon Inc. is technically an independent Canadian company, it has historically been substantially funded by the US government and other Western institutions — a fact worth noting given its role as the methodology partner for the GAMAAN polling inside Iran. In other words, it is a cut out that, in my opinion and based on my experience, is supporting a CIA information operation to portray Iran as a country on the precipice of overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

There is an alternative polling database that paints a radically different picture of the mood in Iran with respect to the Islamic Republic… The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland has conducted a separate series of surveys using phone-based methods, which show more moderate results. Their findings from 2023 and 2024 found that about 75% of respondents expect Iran’s constitution and political system to be about the same in ten years, and only 17% agreed with protesters’ calls for the Islamic Republic to be replaced. However, three in five now think the government should not be strict in enforcing Islamic laws, distinctly up from 2018, and support for demands that the government fight corruption has been consistently near-unanimous since 2018.

On the protests themselves, asked in 2024 to think about waves of demonstrations over the past ten years, two thirds say their main objective was to demand that officials pay greater attention to people’s problems, while only one in five think their main objective was to demand greater freedoms or bring about change in Iran’s system of government.

President Pezeshkian, based on the polls from 2024, was viewed favorably by 66% of those polled at the start of his term… and 70% expressed confidence that he would be an honest and trustworthy president, though only a quarter were very confident. Majorities expressed some confidence that he can improve relations with neighboring countries and protect citizens’ freedoms, notably women’s rights, but majorities are not confident that he can lower inflation or improve relations with the West.

There have been no new polls in the wake of Israel’s surprise attack on June 13, 2025. Based on my conversations with both Nima and Professor Marandi, the reaction in Iran has been similar to what happened in the United States in the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks… National unity increased.

The failed color revolution launched on December 28, 2025 by the United States and Israel has reinforced support for the Islamic Republic. President Pezeshkian has openly admitted his government’s failures on the economic front and he has taken some steps to institute reforms. A more important development was the signing of the Trilateral Security Agreement with Russia and China at the end of January. Those two countries are now providing more resources and support to stabilize the Iranian government and improve the economic lives of the Iranian people.

Donald Trump's threats to attack Iran are backfiring among the majority of the population in Iran. Yes, there are some Iranians who still want to bring an end to the Islamic Republic, but they are dramatically outnumbered. Remember the boost in popularity that George W Bush enjoyed in the aftermath of 9-11? He even picked up support from Democrats who had previously despised him. That same phenomena has happened in Iran. Prior to the June 13, 2025 attack, Iranians under the age of 50 had no vivid memory of Iran/Iraq war — where Iran was attacked with the encouragement and support of the United States. The June 2025 attack, coupled with the foreign instigated late December 2025 protests and violence, have awakened a new sense of nationalism among the Iranian public that has strengthened support for the Islamic Republic.

The belief in the West that Iran is more vulnerable now than at anytime in the last 46 years is the creation of a US funded propaganda campaign that relied on an ideologically biased pollster to produce results that have been used to convince most Americans that Iran is yearning to breath free… All we have to do is kill off the leadership in Iran.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 22:35

California Ranks Worst State For Air Quality, Wyoming Cleanest

Wyoming’s air contains less than half the particle pollution found in California.

Across the country, fine particle pollution levels range from just over 4 µg/m³ to nearly 12 µg/m³, a gap shaped by wildfire exposure, population density, and industrial activity.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's DorothY Neufeld, ranks all 50 states by average particle pollution, based on EPA data from the America’s Health Rankings 2025 report.

A Breakdown of States Ranked by Air Quality

For the analysis, states were analyzed using 2022 to 2024 average fine particle pollution (µg/m³).

The U.S. average stood at 8.8 µg/m³, exceeding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) air quality guideline of 5 µg/m³. That means the average American is breathing air that falls short of global health standards.

Below, we rank states from best to worst by air pollution levels. Where does your state rank?

Rank State Fine particle pollution (µg/m³) 1 Wyoming 4.1 2 Hawaii 4.7 3 New Hampshire 5.0 4 South Dakota 5.7 5 Alaska 5.9 6 Maine 5.9 7 New Mexico 5.9 8 Colorado 6.0 9 Vermont 6.0 10 Montana 6.5 11 Nebraska 6.6 12 Rhode Island 6.7 13 Virginia 7.2 14 Maryland 7.4 15 Utah 7.5 16 Florida 7.6 17 Idaho 7.6 18 Missouri 7.6 19 Alabama 7.7 20 Massachusetts 7.7 21 Washington 7.7 22 West Virginia 7.7 23 New York 7.8 24 Tennessee 7.8 25 North Carolina 7.9 26 New Jersey 7.9 27 Connecticut 8.1 28 Kentucky 8.1 29 Oregon 8.2 30 Mississippi 8.3 31 North Dakota 8.3 32 Iowa 8.4 33 Louisiana 8.4 34 Minnesota 8.4 35 Nevada 8.4 36 South Carolina 8.4 37 Arkansas 8.5 38 Oklahoma 8.5 39 Wisconsin 8.6 40 Arizona 8.7 41 Kansas 8.7 42 Georgia 9.2 43 Texas 9.4 44 Indiana 9.5 45 Delaware 9.7 46 Ohio 9.8 47 Illinois 10.3 48 Michigan 10.4 49 Pennsylvania 11.0 50 California 11.7 -- U.S. Average 8.8

Wyoming has the best air quality in the U.S., known for its vast stretches of land and the nation’s smallest population.

Adding to this, Wyoming’s city of Casper has the lowest year-round particle pollution across U.S. metros. Cheyenne, meanwhile, ranked eighth overall.

Hawaii ranks second by particle pollution, at 4.7 µg/m³. The state’s low population density, along with strong winds and rainfall, plays a key role in its air quality. While rain helps to clear away pollutants, trade winds bring in fresh air and mitigate the accumulation of air pollutants.

Overall, just three states—Wyoming, Hawaii, and New Hampshire—have air quality that falls within WHO’s guidelines.

In contrast, California has average particle pollution of 11.7 µg/m³, the worst nationwide. Moreover, 88% of Californians live in areas with unhealthy air quality. Several factors drive up pollution in the state including tailpipe emissions, high population density, and its hot climate.

States at the bottom of the rankings tend to combine large populations, dense transportation networks, and significant industrial activity. Trailing California at the bottom of the rankings are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Illinois.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s most air-polluted cities.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 22:10