Individual Economists

The Long and Winding Road

Calculated Risk -

Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.
This is the 21st year I've been writing this blog!
Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.

However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).

A few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here

Then I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:
In 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
For the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.
...
I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!
And I updated that post several times.
And on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a Bloomberg article:
Bill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.

“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.
And in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller A comment on Professor Shiller's "The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?". My conclusion:
No big deal, and definitely not a "gigantic" boom in house prices.
In 2021, I wrote: Is there a New Housing Bubble?
The lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.
...
From a historical perspective, house prices are high. But lending standards have been solid, and we haven't seen significant speculation - so I wouldn't call this a bubble.
Also in 2021, I started my real estate newsletter.  
Note: for $25 you can read the entire archive and one month of daily posts - but make sure you cancel or substack will bill you every month! For $100, you will usually receive 4 to 6 articles per week for a year, you can read the archive and comment on all the posts.
A few key articles:
Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift
Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust
Household Formation Drives Housing Demand
The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift
Stay tuned!

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

How America Got Hooked on Ultraprocessed Foods. The earliest processed foods promised ease and convenience. They filled the bellies of soldiers at war. But now, the evolution and explosion of ultraprocessed foods has become one of the greatest health threats of our time. How did we get here? Let’s take a tour through history. (New York Times)

Western executives who visit China are coming back terrified? Robotics has catapulted Beijing into a dominant position in many industries. (The Telegraph) see also China Has Overtaken America: And Trump’s policies guarantee that we will never catch up (Paul Krugman)

Short sellers blame retail investors for worst returns since 2020: Rally in heavily shorted stocks comes as AI hype and hopes of lower rates push S&P 500 to record highs. (Financial Times)

Congress Thinks Hiding Fund Fees Is Good for You: Even if fund expenses seem to disappear, they’re still the biggest drag on your returns. (Wall Street Journal)

How Crypto Became a Trump Trade: It’s primarily a vehicle for crony capitalism now. (Paul Krugman)

Microplastics are everywhere. You can do one simple thing to avoid them. The biggest sources of microplastics have one thing in common, scientists say. Here is how to avoid them. (Washington Post) see also Homeopathy is a scam that causes real harm. Not a single homeopathic “medicine” is FDA-approved. These expensive sugar pills have zero science behind them. (Immunologic)

The hidden way using a rewards card can cost you more: Starbucks tracked my every purchase — then gave me fewer deals. It’s called surveillance pricing, and it’s yet another reminder that Corporate America is filled with bad actors. (Also, Starbucks sucks worse than ever). (Washington Post)

‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat: Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape. (Politico)

The Shadow President: From the wholesale gutting of federal agencies to the ongoing government shutdown, Russell Vought has drawn the road map for Trump’s second term. Vought has consolidated power to an extent that insiders say they feel like “he is the commander in chief.” (Pro Publica)

Earth’s Climate Has Passed Its First Irreversible Tipping Point and Entered a ‘New Reality’. The second Global Tipping Points Report warns that the world has crossed a key threshold as ocean heat devastates warm-water reefs. (404)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Henry Ward,  CEO and co-founder of Carta. The firm works with more than 50,000 companies, 8,500 investment funds, and 2.5+ million equity holders to manage capitalization tables, compensation, valuations, and liquidity, tracking over $2.5 trillion in company equity.

 

Average tariff rate on U.S. goods imports for consumption

Source: J.P. Morgan

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Motley Fool Interview: How Not to Invest

The Big Picture -

 

 

I spoke with Andy Cross and Jason Moser at The Motley Fool about HNTI. It was a surprisingly fun conversation with MF, a firm that built its business on stock picking.

I got to explain why professionals are very good stock buyers, but terrible stock holders and sellers…

See transcripts here or here.

 

Source:
The Motley Fool Interviews Barry Ritholtz: How Not to Invest
By Andy Cross and Jason Moser
Motley Fool  (Oct 13, 2025)

 

The post The Motley Fool Interview: How Not to Invest appeared first on The Big Picture.

Jack Smith Referred To DOJ For Misconduct Investigation And Possible Disbarment

Zero Hedge -

Jack Smith Referred To DOJ For Misconduct Investigation And Possible Disbarment

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Former special counsel Jack Smith was criminally referred to the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Oct. 16 by multiple Republican lawmakers for alleged misconduct and possible disbarment.

A group of GOP lawmakers, led by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), sent a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi, asking her office to refer Smith, who was involved in two federal cases against then-former President Donald Trump, to the Office of Professional Responsibility for an investigation.

A statement from Blackburn’s office said Smith had “allegedly engaged in serious prosecutorial misconduct through the politically motivated Arctic Frost investigation and must face appropriate consequences, up to and including disbarment.”

It was revealed earlier this month that the FBI had obtained cell phone records of several sitting Republican senators.

“As part of Jack Smith’s weaponized witch hunt, the Biden DOJ issued subpoenas to several telecommunications companies in 2023 regarding our cell phone records, gaining access to the time, recipient, duration, and location of calls placed on our devices from January 4, 2021, to January 7, 2021,” Blackburn and several other Republican lawmakers wrote to Bondi on Thursday.

The senators added that they “have yet to learn of any legal predicate for the Biden Department of Justice issuing subpoenas to obtain these cell phone records,” the letter said.

Along with Blackburn, FBI agents had obtained data on the phone use of Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), as well as Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), according to a document that was recently made public by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) on Oct. 6.

Smith wrote in his final report, released earlier this year, that toll records—or records from phones—had shown that Trump allegedly tried reaching out to two senators and told another individual to call members of Congress and suggested they try to delay the certification of the 2020 election results.

After Trump was elected last year, Smith ultimately dropped the charges and resigned in January, shortly before the president took office.

In their letter, the lawmakers accused Smith, who obtained records in the FBI’s Arctic Frost probe, of infringing on the rights of the elected officials and violating their respective rights to privacy.

“This is especially true given the invasion of our privacy was directly connected to our core legislative functions protected by the Speech or Debate Clause of our Constitution,” the Republican lawmakers wrote.

“To the best we can tell, Smith’s team went on this fishing expedition for one simple reason: we are Republicans who support President Trump.”

Last week, Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee demanded in a letter to Smith that he provide testimony to their panel to understand how he operated in the two investigations into Trump. The lawmakers said that officials who had worked under Smith did not cooperate with their investigation by either invoking their Fifth Amendment right that bars a person from making self-incriminating statements or by declining to answer Republicans’ questions.

In his report sent to then-Attorney General Merrick Garland, Smith defended his investigations into Trump. One accused Trump of illegally retaining classified documents, while the other accused him of illegally trying to subvert the 2020 election results.

“Nobody within the Department of Justice ever sought to interfere with, or improperly influence, my prosecutorial decision making,” Smith said in the Jan. 7, 2025, letter.

He also claimed that his dropping charges against Trump after his election win was not a sign that the president should be exonerated from guilt.

Trump pleaded not guilty to the charges and has long said they were part of a politically motivated attempt to denigrate his reelection campaign.

Last week, Smith told a panel that allegations that he acted in a politically motivated manner are false and said he is “very concerned” about attempts to “demonize” career DOJ officials “for political ends.” The discussion was the first time Smith had spoken about his role as a special counsel prosecuting Trump.

So far, Smith has not publicly responded to the Republican lawmakers’ statements about their phone records being obtained. The Epoch Times contacted Smith’s counsel, Peter Koski, for comment on Friday.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 11:40

China Expels 9 Top Generals, Including Two From Communist Party Leadership, In Sweeping Purge

Zero Hedge -

China Expels 9 Top Generals, Including Two From Communist Party Leadership, In Sweeping Purge

In another major purge likely based on loyalty, China's President Xi Jinping has embarked on another significant series of top level military firings, with the Communist Party having expelled nine senior generals in one of the most sweeping such moves in decades.

A Defense Ministry statement indicated the nine officers are under investigation for "serious financial misconduct." Also unusual is that most of them were three-star generals and formed part of the party's powerful Central Committee.

Illustrative: Chinese President Xi Jinping with various generals in 2023, Xinhua via Getty Images 

And it wasn't just a demotion, but most were booted completely from the armed forces. The defense ministry statement said the nine had "seriously violated party discipline and were suspected of serious duty-related crimes involving an extremely large amount of money, of extremely serious nature, and with extremely detrimental consequences."

They will face legal and military punishment as a result of the investigation which was a "significant achievement in the party and military's anti-corruption campaign."

The most notable figure to get dismissed is He Weidong - among the most senior generals in the group - who was a member of the 24-man Politburo, as well as the country's second-highest-ranking military officer. And he was among powerful leaders immediately after President Xi Jinping, who chairs the Central Military Commission (CMC).

But there had been building speculation that Gen. He had run afoul of Xi and the party and was under a serious probe, given he hadn't been seen in public since Mary.

According to more context from The Wall Street Journal:

Gen. He is the most senior active-duty military officer that Xi has purged, and the first incumbent vice chair of the Central Military Commission, or CMC, to be ousted in nearly four decades. The 68-year-old general, who hasn’t been seen publicly since March, is also the first sitting Politburo member to be investigated since 2017.

China last purged military officials at this level of seniority roughly a decade ago, when the party expelled two retired CMC vice chairmen on corruption charges during Xi’s first term as leader.

China and regional analysts knew something was afoot also when new guidelines issued by the CMC in July called for the elimination of "toxic influence" in the military and set forth what it called "iron rules" for top officers.

Expelled: China's number two general He Weidong (left) and navy admiral Miao Hua (right), AP/Getty Images

Below is the list of nine officers fired and under criminal investigation:

  • He Weidong - Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)
  • Miao Hua - director of the CMC's political work department
  • He Hongjun - executive deputy director of the CMC's political work department
  • Wang Xiubin - executive deputy director of the CMC's joint operations command centre
  • Lin Xiangyang - Eastern Theatre commander
  • Qin Shutong - the Army's political commissar
  • Yuan Huazhi - the Navy's political commissar
  • Wang Houbin - Rocket Forces commander
  • Wang Chunning - Armed Police Force commander

There could be more purges to come, given the top dismissals were announced just before next week's annual closed door conclave of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, set for October 20 through the 23rd in Beijing to discuss the next five-year plan.

Next week is expected to reveal more of the 'purge surge'...

Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, has been quoted in US media as saying, "Xi is cleaning house for sure. The formal removal of He and Miao means he will get to appoint new members of the Central Military Commission - which has been virtually half empty since March - at the Plenum."

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 11:05

How America's Paper-Money System & The Federal Reserve Plunder American Taxpayers

Zero Hedge -

How America's Paper-Money System & The Federal Reserve Plunder American Taxpayers

Authored by Jacob G. Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

Given that the Federal Reserve has obviously abandoned its 2 percent target for the rise in prices brought on by its own paper-money inflationary policy, it’s important that we keep in mind how our nation’s paper money-system and the Fed’s inflationary policy plunder and loot the American people.

There is the plunder and looting that takes place through the simple inflationary expansion of the money supply. By inflating the amount of money in circulation, the Fed reduces the value of money sitting in people’s savings accounts or that they receive in income. Their savings and income buy less than before simply because the federal government, through its inflationary policy, has debased the value of money.

This is what has been occurring ever since the U.S. government converted to a paper-money standard during the President Franklin Roosevelt administration during the 1930s. Prior to that time — in fact, for more than 125 years prior to that time — the official money of the American people had been gold coins and silver coins. That’s because the Constitution mandated gold coins and silver coins as the official money of our nation.

But gold coins and silver coins cannot be printed, like paper money can. So, FDR used the excuse of an economic “emergency” to declare a permanent end to our constitutional monetary system. Indeed, he did it without even the semblance of a constitutional amendment. And the U.S. Supreme Court upheld his extraordinary “emergency” power to effectively amend the Constitution through executive order and congressional law, even though the Constitution does not delegate“emergency” powers to either the president or the Congress.

Ever since then — year after year, decade after decade — the value of the paper dollar has gone down. That’s because the federal government found it more convenient to pay for its out-of-control welfare-warfare-regulatory programs through newly printed money than by simply raising income taxes on people.

After all, people get upset when public officials raise their income taxes. With rising prices that come with inflation, most people have no idea that it is federal officials who are causing the prices to rise through inflationary debasement of the value of people’s money. So, they get angry at people in the private sector who are raising their prices to reflect the lower value of the money rather than get angry at people in the government sector who are causing the rising prices through inflationary expansion of the money supply.

Even at an inflationary rate of 2 percent per year, the citizenry are still getting plundered and looted to the tune of at least 2 percent per year. When one compounds that amount year after year, the amount of plunder and looting increases substantially.

But there is another factor to consider — the benefit that an inflationary policy brings to state and local governments in the form of higher property taxes on people’s homes.

Over the years and decades, the Fed’s inflationary policies have caused the value of people’s homes to soar. While this phenomenon has caused people to feel like they are increasing the equity in the home, it actually doesn’t make any real difference at all. Why? Because all the home values in the surrounding area have increased too.

Thus, people quickly discover that selling their home in the hope of acquiring a better home doesn’t work out. In order to benefit from the increased inflationary-induced value of their home, they have to move to another part of the country — one where home values are relatively lower.

The people who love the inflationary increase in home values are state and local government officials. That’s because they rely on property taxes to fund their operations — and those property tax revenues are based partly on the assessed value of people’s homes.

Thus, as the value of people’s homes increase due to the Fed’s inflationary debasement policies, the real-estate taxes that state and local officials are assessing on people’s homes are constantly going up. That means that while people are receiving no real benefit from the increase in their home values, they are suffering a constantly worsening situation in terms of the real-estate taxes they are paying, which are going up year after year, decade after decade.

According to ChatGPT, with a 2 percent inflation rate, the nominal value of someone’s house, given compound interest, will increase by 22 percent over a ten-year period, meaning, as ChatGPT states, its “real purchasing power remains about the same.”

But notice something important: while the real purchasing power remains the same, the same can’t be said of the amount of property taxes that must be paid to state and local officials.

The property tax burden is constantly increasing because the taxes are being assessed on the nominal value of the home, not the real purchasing-power value of the home.

Thus, it’s important to keep in mind that America’s paper-money monetary system that FDR foisted upon our nation on a permanent basis, which is reinforced by the inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve, which was established in 1913, ends up looting and plundering people not only at the federal-government level but also at the state and local government level.

 

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Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 10:30

The US Has Given Ukraine The Most Aid To Date

Zero Hedge -

The US Has Given Ukraine The Most Aid To Date

Following Zelensky's trip cap-in-hand to Washington this week, we note that (to date) the United States has been the biggest supporter of Ukraine in terms of aid, according to data from the Ukraine Support Tracker compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

EU institutions (including the European Commission and the Council), followed by Germany and the United Kingdom have been the next biggest contributors.

The following chart,m via Statista's Anna Fleck, looks at financial assistance (such as loans and grants), humanitarian aid (like food and medical supplies), and the value of weapons and equipment delivered. This included in-kind donations to the Ukrainian military and financial support tied to military purposes.

 The U.S. Has Given Ukraine the Most Aid to Date | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

When looking solely at military aid, including weapons and defense-related financial support, Germany ranks second, contributing an estimated €17.7 billion.

The United States remains the largest military backer, however, having delivered weapons and military funds totaling approximately €115 billion between January 24, 2022 and August 31, 2025.

In early March 2025, U.S. military aid was briefly paused, but resumed on March 11 after Ukraine signaled openness to a potential ceasefire.

The USA is now acting as an arms supplier and coordinator within the framework of the newly established NATO PURL initiative.

This involves NATO countries purchasing weapons from the USA, which are then made available to Ukraine.

The Ukraine Support Tracker, maintained by IfW Kiel, systematically records the publicly known support pledged by governments of 31 Western countries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

It tracks military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, aiming to provide a factual basis for ongoing discussions about international aid to Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 09:55

When The Curve Speaks: What The (UK) Bond Market Is Telling Us

Zero Hedge -

When The Curve Speaks: What The (UK) Bond Market Is Telling Us

Authored by Ben Lord via BondVigilantes.com,

In 2020, the bond market awoke from a decade-long slumber and moved long-dated bonds higher, in what we call a curve steepening, even whilst short-end rates were (possibly) at paradigm lows.

It was easy to look at this steepening move as being driven by the quite justified cutting of interest rates in response to the global pandemic and the seizure in the global economy that took place, and therefore to stop there and ignore any deeper or more subtle message. Looking back at this move, there was an important increase in inflation breakevens, which are simply bond market inflation expectations. You might say that the bond market was trying to tell central bankers that if you combine super-accommodative monetary policy rates with enormous fiscal stimulus that was (again, justifiably given the circumstances) occurring, then inflation will return.

Further, looking back at the moves in bond market inflation expectations, there was a difference in the move in expectations: 5y breakevens rose by a very significant 2.5% (so inflation was expected to be 2.5% higher each year on average for the next 5 years) between early 2020 and early 2022. 10y breakevens rose significantly too, but slightly less at 2% over the same period. These are, in bond market terms, significant repricings to say the least. The bond market was putting up its hand and saying that it was pricing large and long-term increases in inflation. Central bankers believed that this bond market move was ‘transitory’. 30yr breakevens were also up 1.5%, so the bond market clearly disagreed. The rest, as they say, is history. But the damage caused to inflation forecasting credibility may remain for a long time to come.

Source: Bloomberg (13 October 2025).

In the last 18 months or so there has been a renewed steepening in the yield curve, back to levels not that far from the bull steepening move of 2020 to 2021 in most western developed markets.

Importantly, in the UK specifically, we are at levels of steepness that are meaningfully greater than they were in 2020 and 2021.

We haven’t often seen such steepness when the starting point for short end rates is so high. Historically, steep curves tend to emerge when policy rates are low and markets are pricing in inflation. This time policy rates are restrictive, yet the long end is demanding more yield. The bond market is telling us something.

The bond market is, for some reason(s), requiring more yield for lending longer – in curve steepness terms – in the UK than many peers (US, Germany), although less than others (Japan).

The bond market is not by any means always right: predictions of recession since 2022 have clearly been misplaced (so far), for example. The second thing that needs to be said is that there are almost certainly many factors at play behind this move. But to me—and the one I want to focus on today—is the difference this time on the driver of the steepening, here in the UK and elsewhere. The recent significant steepening has not been driven by an increase in inflation expectations. At all.

What this means is that, for now at least, the bond market is not increasing term premia for lending to longer-dated government bonds because it is worried about rising inflation in the future.

Source: Bloomberg (30 September 2025).

Therefore, what we need to ask is: why the steepening and why the increase in term premia?

As I’ve said, the truth is that there are probably multiple factors at work.

However, in my opinion there is one factor that dominates all others: fiscal policy.

Indeed, it is a surprise to me that we all speak to our clients and to our colleagues every day at the moment about fiscal risks and issuance expectations in government bonds. We shouldn’t be worrying now when nominal GDP (real GDP and inflation) are running at solid levels that mean that the affordability of government borrowings are manageable. The time to worry about these risks is in a slowdown or a recession: tax receipts fall and expenditures rise, so government borrowing has to rise to plug the gap.

The Chancellor has been resolute in saying she will stick to the fiscal rules the UK government outlined and said all the right things when some politicians and commentators suggested that the bond market should be ignored from a fiscal policy point of view.

That strength is encouraging as bond investors.

But the message from the market is that credibility will matter most when these commitments are tested at upcoming fiscal events.

Looking back, central bankers dismissed bond market signals in 2021, with long-term consequences for credibility in inflation forecasting. The concern today is different:  markets are now paying closer attention to fiscal sustainability. For policymakers, this underlines the value of clarity and consistency on fiscal strategy, given investors remain highly sensitive to signals about future borrowing levels.

Sustained confidence will depend on a credible long-term path. Engaging with these market signals can help ensure borrowing remains affordable and that fiscal policy retains the trust of investors over time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 09:20

Poland Lets Ukrainian Wanted By Germany In Nord Stream Blasts Walk Free: 'A Just Act'

Zero Hedge -

Poland Lets Ukrainian Wanted By Germany In Nord Stream Blasts Walk Free: 'A Just Act'

A Polish court has simply let a Ukrainian citizen suspected by Germany of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022 walk free.

The Polish judge ruling in the case not only decided to ignore the European arrest warrant issued by German authorities last month, but went so far as to say that if the man did have a part in the undersea bombing, then it was a "just" act.

Via Associated Press

The suspect, identified as Volodymyr Zhuravlyov, has been wanted by Germany and the case has attracted international attention and controversy; but upon being freed the crowd in the court room reportedly let out cheers.

He's said to have been a Ukrainian diver involved in the covert operation on behalf of Kiev. "A Ukrainian man suspected of being involved in causing undersea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany in 2022 was arrested in Poland, a spokesperson for the District Prosecutor’s Office in Warsaw said Tuesday," The Associated Press reported last week.

This marked the second recent arrest related to the Nord Stream sabotage investigation, as last month another Ukrainian man was arrested in Italy in connection.

According to more fresh details of these new developments:

Volodymyr Zhuravlov, 46, was arrested near Warsaw Sept. 30 on a German warrant. German prosecutors have described him as a trained diver and allege that he was part of a group that placed explosives on the pipelines near the Danish island of Bornholm three years ago.

The Warsaw District Court rejected his extradition on Friday and ordered his immediate release.

The man’s lawyer, Tymoteusz Paprocki, said ahead of the hearing that “my client doesn’t admit guilt, he didn’t commit any crime against Germany and he doesn’t understand why these charges were made by the German side.” He said he also would argue that no Ukrainian should be charged with any action directed against Russia.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made clear that it would not be in Poland's interest to hand over the suspect, and has even expressed praise for the suspect.

Tusk said of the Warsaw court having rejected the extradition that it was "rightly so". He then said that "the case is closed."

The mainstream media narrative on this major event which came early in the Ukraine war has shifted dramatically several times. In the opening months, the MSM was lockstep in collectively assuming Russia must have bombed its own key pipelines, effectively economically sabotaging itself and a (at the time) leading European energy export partner.

Then, as we highlighted, there was in 2024 the "bombshell" WSJ Nord Stream report which was a shift, but yet another attempt by mainstream gatekeepers to put official distance between President Zelensky and his supposedly 'rogue' top general at the time who 'oversaw' the covert op. All the while, legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has said the CIA and an elite US Navy team are the real culprits.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025

Calculated Risk -

NOTE: I'm on vacation and returning this week. Government data might be rescheduled due to the government shutdown.

The key economic report this week is September Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.

----- Monday, October 20th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 21st -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, October 22nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA/Deltek's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, October 23rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

----- Friday, October 24th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Inside the Credit Card Battle to Win America’s Richest Shoppers: The fierce fight between Amex and Chase is playing out over higher fees, extravagant events and every perk imaginable. (Bloomberg) free. 

How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution. These might look like shipping containers in the desert, but they are actually the key to unlocking a clean energy revolution. Across California, installations of mega batteries store power from renewable sources and distribute it when people need it most. The sun provides most of California’s electricity during the day. But it is a different story at night. Batteries provide the answer. (Financial Times) see also AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants: Bypassing the grid, at least temporarily, tech companies are creating an energy Wild West; ‘grab yourself a couple of turbines’. (Wall Street Journal)

•  YouTube Just Ate TV. It’s Only Getting Started: In two decades, the app has grown from a user-generated circus into the most powerful platform on earth. CEO Neal Mohan on his $100 billion vision for YouTube’s future and the disruption it’s left in its wake. (The Hollywood Reporter)

Hetty Green: The Witch of Wall Street: Hetty Green was the richest woman you’ve never heard of. In the late 1800s, she built a fortune worth billions today in a world designed to stop her. Women couldn’t vote, couldn’t own property, and weren’t even allowed on the stock exchange floor. (Farnam Street)

The Rules of Investing Are Being Loosened. Could It Lead to the Next 1929? A group of financiers is trying to convince the public to invest heavily in private equity and crypto — a risky gambit with some real 1920s vibes. (New York Times) see also The Lesson of 1929: Debt is the almost singular through line behind every major financial crisis. (The Atlantic)

Why Some Americans Don’t Invest in the Stock Market: While about half of Americans report owning stocks either personally or jointly with a household member, a substantial portion of the population remains without stock investments. Why don’t more people participate in the stock market?  (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Everything Is Television: A theory of culture and attention.(Derek Thompson) see also The last days of poptimism: The new stars are old-school cool (Unherd)

A Chat with A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid about Numbers, Community, and Luxury Retail: From production insights to the ever-shifting landscape of luxury retail, Schmid offers a candid glimpse into the brand’s ethos and his personal odyssey as the leader of one of horology’s most esteemed names. (Watchonista)

These 2 quick tests can tell you if you’re as fit as an 80-year-old elite athlete. Measure your strength, power and coordination with these two simple fitness checks.  (Washington Post)

Thousands Of Words About The Bearer Bonds In DIE HARD: You will learn things from this blog post! (Calm Down)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.  Named “Best Market Strategist” by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, she is also on Barron’s “100 Most Influential Women in Finance” every year since the list’s inception.

 

AI is already having a massive impact on the economy. Specifically, investment, i.e. spending on AI-related hardware and software

Source: Carson Group

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around

Zero Hedge -

The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The geostrategic context of newfound pressure upon each, their increased bilateral tensions, and rising fears that false flag provocations in Europe could manipulate them into war with one another make it likely that their planned Budapest Summit will be more successful than the Anchorage one.

The next Putin-Trump meeting will soon take place in Budapest. Prior to their last one in Anchorage, the vision that they were working towards was a resource-centric strategic partnership that could then become a steppingstone towards a more comprehensive one in the future. For that to happen, either Putin had to freeze the frontlines or Trump had to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from Donbass, but neither could agree to what was requested of them so their New Détente went nowhere.

Even worse, the Europeans then became serious obstacles to peace, even going as far as teaming up with the Brits and Zelensky to propose dangerous “security guarantees” that riled Russia.

Trump ramped up his rhetoric against Putin afterwards, arguably due to him being manipulated by Lindsey Graham and Zelensky, thus culminating in the latest talk about sending Tomahawks to Ukraine.

It was within this tense context that they talked again, right before Zelensky’s trip to DC, and agreed to meet in Budapest.

Each side is also coming under a lot of newfound pressure nowadays that conceivably influenced their latest call and plans to meet.

From Russia’s side, the new TRIPP corridor will inject Western influence along Russia’s southern flank via NATO member Turkiye (despite Russia’s thaw with Azerbaijan), Poland is reviving its long-lost Great Power status along Russia’s western flank, and Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) revealed last month that French and UK troops are already in Ukraine’s Odessa Region.

As for the newfound pressure that the US is nowadays coming under, this concerns the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement after America’s bullying of India backfired, Russia finally clinching a long-negotiated deal with China to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline on presumably favorable terms for Beijing, and all of this resulting in the failure of Trump 2.0’s Eurasian balancing act.

At the same time, Russia and the US could be manipulated into war with one another by possible British and/or Ukrainian false flags.

SVR warned twice about their alleged false flag plots in the Baltic, which was followed by the suspicious drone incident in Poland that was weaponized by deep state elements in a failed bid to manipulate its new president into war with Russia. Shortly afterwards, Estonia claimed that Russia violated its maritime airspace, which led to NATO threatening to shoot down Russian jets, then there was a Russian drone scare in Scandinavia. SVR since warned that Ukraine is now plotting a false flag attack in Poland.

The geostrategic context that was just outlined suggests that a grand compromise might now be possible so as to alleviate some of the aforesaid pressure on each, reduce bilateral tensions, and thus prevent any false flags from manipulating them into war.

To that end, Russia might accept some limited Western “security guarantees” for Ukraine, the US might curtail its arms exports to Ukraine and NATO, and then they might clinch their hoped-for strategic resource deals upon freezing or outright ending the conflict.

Informal quid pro quos, such as Russia helping the US “manage” Iran so long as the US gets Zelensky to implement a degree of (at least symbolic) “denazification” and possibly withdraw from Donbass, could also be agreed to for facilitating this arrangement.

At the same time, Ukraine, the EU, and the UK might carry out provocations to sabotage the Budapest Summit. In any case, if Putin and Trump do end up meeting again sometime soon, then they’re expected to agree to something tangible this time around.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 23:25

Get Woke, Go Broke: Hollywood Productions Plummet To All Time Lows

Zero Hedge -

Get Woke, Go Broke: Hollywood Productions Plummet To All Time Lows

Film and TV production in the Los Angeles area has hit an all-time low, sinking to levels worse than the SAG union strike of 2023.  The city has introduces new tax incentives to generate enthusiasm but many in Tinseltown are questioning if the industry will ever recover.

FilmLA, the city and county’s film permitting office, said Tuesday that on-location production in the greater Los Angeles area declined 13.2% from July through September 2025 compared to the same period last year. Once again, this continues a multi-year trend in declining local production. 

LA motion picture employment dropped from 142,000 in 2022 to 100,000 by end-2024 - a 30% cut (42,000 jobs gone). Below-the-line crew were hit hardest; 63% earned less in 2024, and 41% are considering an exit.  High taxes in LA and California have forced some productions to leave the area, but total US film and TV productions are still in decline no matter where you go in the country.  There has been a 28% drop in theatrical releases since 2019 and a 25% drop in scripted TV projects.  

The vast majority of film and TV media are shot in the greater Los Angeles area due to proximity to studios, editing facilities, effects houses and actor pools.  A drop in Hollywood and LA production indicates are decline in the film industry as a whole.  The plunge in activity coincides with the overall drop in box office receipts since 2019. 

Profits never recovered after the pandemic shutdowns and this has been used for years by the progressive media as the excuse for Hollywood's failures.  However, by 2023 US markets were wide open along with most foreign markets and the covid scapegoat no longer exists.  Adjusted for inflation, theatrical numbers were already in decline after 2015. 

Another factor that many analysts don't take into account is Democrat mismanagement on cities and states, leading to higher costs, higher crime and an underlying malaise that suffocates business.  This has been taking place for many years; well before covid.

From 2015 to 2019 audience numbers had already dropped around 10%. Today, audience numbers are at least 30% below 2015 levels. What no one in the business wants to address is the woke takeover and its negative effects on media.  The industry's woke shift has clearly been affecting receipts.

Production companies cite the rise of inflation and higher ticket costs as a ticket killer.  This makes more sense than the covid claims, but it does not explain why movies without woke messaging continue to greatly outperform movies that push woke messaging.  The solution to Hollywood's dilemma seems clear:  Stop making woke garbage, hire decent writers, and the cash will roll in.    

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 23:00

Tests Find High Levels Of Lead In Protein Powders, Shakes: Consumer Reports

Zero Hedge -

Tests Find High Levels Of Lead In Protein Powders, Shakes: Consumer Reports

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Popular protein powders and shakes contain high levels of lead, Consumer Reports (CR) said on Oct. 14.

Twenty-two of 23 products tested by CR had detectable amounts of lead, and more than two-thirds had unsafe levels of lead, according to the organization.

Protein powder, in an undated file photograph. Nick Starichenko/Shutterstock

“About 70 percent of products we tested contained over 120 percent of CR’s level of concern for lead, which is 0.5 micrograms per day,” CR said.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration says there are no known safe levels of lead.

The FDA can take action if it finds unsafe lead levels, but the lack of enforceable standards means it doesn’t happen nearly enough,” Brian Ronholm, CR’s director of food policy, said in a statement.

He said that the FDA should establish enforceable limits for foods and supplements.

“FDA does not comment on outside studies. The agency continues to follow gold-standard science to protect consumers,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services, the parent agency of the FDA, told The Epoch Times via email.

An FDA spokesperson also told CR that it would review the findings from the testing “along with other data we have collected to better inform where to focus our testing efforts and enforcement activities.”

CR is a nonprofit that describes itself as working with consumers “for truth, transparency, and fairness in the marketplace.”

CR found Huel’s black edition, chocolate flavor, and Naked Nutrition’s Vegan Mass Gainer had the highest levels of lead per serving. Huel did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

A Naked Nutrition spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email that the tested product is a weight gainer, so it has a larger serving size than standard protein powders.

This difference means that comparing ‘per serving’ data across products with drastically different serving sizes does not provide an accurate, apples-to-apples comparison. When viewed on a per-gram basis, our results are consistent with other plant-based protein products,” the spokesperson said, adding later that “Naked Nutrition remains fully committed to transparency, science-based quality standards, and providing our customers with safe, high-quality nutrition products that meet or exceed all U.S. safety regulations.”

Other powders and shakes with unsafe levels, according to CR, included Momentous’s 100 percent plant protein and KOS organic superfood plant protein.

A Momentous spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email that the products CR tested have been discontinued. The spokesperson also said that its own testing found lower levels of lead than CR did.

A KOS spokesperson said that the amount of lead and metal in each serving of its protein powders is “significantly small.”

CR recommended seven powders and shakes with lower levels of lead, including Owyn’s Pro Elite High Protein Shake and BSN’s Syntha-6 Protein Powder.

A spokesperson for Owyn told The Epoch Times in an email that the company carefully sources all of its ingredients and that every ingredient “is compliant with all applicable state and federal safety standards.” BSN did not return an inquiry by publication time.

CR also said it detected cadmium and inorganic arsenic, two toxic heavy metals, at unsafe levels in three products.

CR first tested protein shakes in 2010. It detected lead, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury in some products.

In the new testing, the average level of lead was higher, and fewer products had undetectable amounts.

“It’s concerning that these results are even worse than the last time we tested,” Tunde Akinleye, the CR researcher who led the project, said in a statement.

*  *  * Looking for lead-free protein powder with peptides?

We've been to the pharmaceutical-grade lab. Wore the stupid hairnets.You could eat off the floor.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 21:45

The Irony Of Trump's New 'War On Drugs': Recalling The History Of CIA Narco Trafficking

Zero Hedge -

The Irony Of Trump's New 'War On Drugs': Recalling The History Of CIA Narco Trafficking

The Hill has recently estimated that some 10,000 American troops are currently supporting the Trump-ordered counternarcotics operations in the Caribbean.

At this point the military intervention has killed 27 people, including individuals who are likely not Venezuelan (for example, Colombia earlier said one of its boats was hit, and The Guardian now says two citizens of Trinidad and Tobago have been among the deceased). Many American forces among this new US build-up are likely deployed at Puerto Rico currently, as well as spread out among the US Navy's eight ships stationed in regional waters.

President Trump's most recent explanation to reporters for this unprecedented Pentagon build-up off Venezuela's coast was surprisingly reminiscent of the failed "war on drugs" which hearkens all the way back to the days of Richard Nixon, when he famously declared it "public enemy number one".

DEA head Robert Stutman with intercepted Medellin Cartel drugs at a press conference in 1988.

"They have emptied their prisons into the United States of America," Trump said this week. "They came in through the border." The president has been framing the controversial military intervention as necessary to fight drugs, terrorism, and illegal migration and criminal gangs.

"They have allowed thousands and thousands of prisoners, people from mental institutions, insane asylums emptied out into the United States," he continued. "They are the worst abuser."

Trump then left open the possibility of a land war in Venezuela - and he linked it to the drug war: "A lot of Venezuelan drugs come in through the sea, but we're gonna stop them by land also," he said. This after confirming that CIA coverts ops have been authorized, as we reported in the following:

Overthrow: Trump Authorizes CIA Covert Ops Targeting Venezuela's Maduro

For those who are aware of the CIA's 20th century decades-long legacy in Latin America, the idea that the United States government and its intelligence agencies are fundamentally and on principle stand against drug trafficking is laughable

There was a time, not too far back in history, where the CIA itself was the biggest narco-trafficker in United States and perhaps the entire Western hemisphere (if not the world). This was to fund regime change and covert operations in Latin America after a belated Congressional crackdown on taxpayer funding for black ops.

For a crucial trip down memory lane at a moment Trump is renewing a 'war on drugs' in the heart of Latin America, we offer an important summary of the declassified and historical record by the late great investigative reporter William Blum, republished in full below...

* * *

In August 1996, the San Jose Mercury News initiated an extended series of articles linking the CIA’s “contra” army to the crack cocaine epidemic in Los Angeles. Based on a year-long investigation, reporter Gary Webb wrote that during the 1980s the CIA helped finance its covert war against Nicaragua’s leftist government through sales of cut-rate cocaine to South Central L.A. drug dealer, Ricky Ross. The series unleashed a storm of protest, spearheaded by black radio stations and the congressional Black Caucus, with demands for official inquiries. The Mercury News‘ Web page, with supporting documents and updates, received hundreds of thousands of “hits” a day.

While much of the CIA-contra-drug story had been revealed years ago in the press and in congressional hearings, the Mercury News series added a crucial missing link: It followed the cocaine trail to Ross and black L.A. gangs who became street-level distributors of crack, a cheap and powerful form of cocaine. The CIA’s drug network, wrote Webb, “opened the first pipeline between Colombia’s cocaine cartels and the black neighborhoods of Los Angeles, a city now known as the ‘crack’ capital of the world.” Black gangs used their profits to buy automatic weapons, sometimes from one of the CIA-linked drug dealers.

CIA Director John Deutch declared that he found “no connection whatsoever” between the CIA and cocaine traffickers. And major media–the New York TimesLos Angeles Times, and Washington Post–have run long pieces refuting the Mercury News series. They deny that Bay Area-based Nicaraguan drug dealers, Juan Norwin Meneses and Oscar Danilo Blandon, worked for the CIA or contributed “millions in drug profits” to the contras, as Webb contended. They also note that neither Ross nor the gangs were the first or sole distributors of crack in L.A. Webb, however, did not claim this. He wrote that the huge influx of cocaine happened to come at just the time that street-level drug dealers were figuring out how to make cocaine affordable by changing it into crack.

Many in the media have also postulated that any drug-trafficking contras involved were “rogue” elements, not supported by the CIA. But these denials overlook much of the Mercury News‘ evidence of CIA complicity. For example:

  • CIA-supplied contra planes and pilots carried cocaine from Central America to U.S. airports and military bases. In 1985, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent Celerino Castillo reported to his superiors that cocaine was being stored at the CIA’s contra-supply warehouse at Ilopango Air Force Base in El Salvador for shipment to the U.S. The DEA did nothing, and Castillo was gradually forced out of the agency.
  • When Danilo Blandón was finally arrested in 1986, he admitted to drug crimes that would have sent others away for life. The Justice Department, however, freed Blandón after only 28 months behind bars and then hired him as a full-time DEA informant, paying him more than $166,000. When Blandón testified in a 1996 trial against Ricky Ross, the Justice Department blocked any inquiry about Blandón’s connection to the CIA.
  • Although Norwin Meneses is listed in DEA computers as a major international drug smuggler implicated in 45 separate federal investigations since 1974, he lived conspicuously in California until 1989 and was never arrested in the U.S.
  • Senate investigators and agents from four organizations all complained that their contra-drug investigations “were hampered,” Webb wrote, “by the CIA or unnamed ‘national security’ interests.” In the 1984 “Frogman Case,” for instance, the U.S. Attorney in San Francisco returned $36,800 seized from a Nicaraguan drug dealer after two contra leaders sent letters to the court arguing that the cash was intended for the contras. Federal prosecutors ordered the letter and other case evidence sealed for “national security” reasons. When Senate investigators later asked the Justice Department to explain this unusual turn of events, they ran into a wall of secrecy.
History of CIA Involvement in Drug Trafficking

“In my 30­year history in the Drug Enforcement Administration and related agencies, the major targets of my investigations almost invariably turned out to be working for the CIA.” — Dennis Dayle, former chief of an elite DEA enforcement unit.

The foregoing discussion should not be regarded as any kind of historical aberration inasmuch as the CIA has had a long and virtually continuous involvement with drug trafficking since the end of World War II.

1947 to 1951, France

CIA arms, money, and disinformation enabled Corsican criminal syndicates in Marseille to wrest control of labor unions from the Communist Party. The Corsicans gained political influence and control over the docks–ideal conditions for cementing a long-term partnership with mafia drug distributors, which turned Marseille into the postwar heroin capital of the Western world. Marseille’s first heroin laboratories were opened in 1951, only months after the Corsicans took over the waterfront.

Early 1950s, Southeast Asia

The Nationalist Chinese army, organized by the CIA to wage war against Communist China, became the opium baron of The Golden Triangle (parts of Burma, Thailand, and Laos), the world’s largest source of opium and heroin. Air America, the CIA’s principal proprietary airline, flew the drugs all over Southeast Asia.

1950s to early 1970s, Indochina

During U.S. military involvement in Laos and other parts of Indochina, Air America flew opium and heroin throughout the area. Many GI’s in Vietnam became addicts. A laboratory built at CIA headquarters in northern Laos was used to refine heroin. After a decade of American military intervention, Southeast Asia had become the source of 70 percent of the world’s illicit opium and the major supplier of raw materials for America’s booming heroin market.

1973 to 1980, Australia

The Nugan Hand Bank of Sydney was a CIA bank in all but name. Among its officers were a network of U.S. generals, admirals, and CIA men–including former CIA Director William Colby, who was also one of its lawyers. With branches in Saudi Arabia, Europe, Southeast Asia, South America, and the U.S., Nugan Hand Bank financed drug trafficking, money laundering, and international arms dealing. In 1980, amidst several mysterious deaths, the bank collapsed, $50 million in debt.

1970s and 1980s, Panama

For more than a decade, Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega was a highly paid CIA asset and collaborator, despite knowledge by U.S. drug authorities as early as 1971 that the general was heavily involved in drug trafficking and money laundering. Noriega facilitated “guns-for-drugs” flights for the contras, providing protection and pilots, safe havens for drug cartel officials, and discreet banking facilities. U.S. officials, including then-CIA Director William Webster and several DEA officers, sent Noriega letters of praise for efforts to thwart drug trafficking (albeit only against competitors of his Medellín cartel patrons). The U.S. government only turned against Noriega, invading Panama in December 1989 and kidnapping the general, once they discovered he was providing intelligence and services to the Cubans and Sandinistas. Ironically, drug trafficking through Panama increased after the U.S. invasion.

1980s, Central America

The San Jose Mercury News series documents just one thread of the interwoven operations linking the CIA, the contras, and the cocaine cartels. Obsessed with overthrowing the leftist Sandinista government in Nicaragua, Reagan administration officials tolerated drug trafficking as long as the traffickers gave support to the contras. In 1989, the Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics, and International Operations (the Kerry committee) concluded a three-year investigation by stating: “There was substantial evidence of drug smuggling through the war zones on the part of individual contras, contra suppliers, contra pilots, mercenaries who worked with the contras, and contra supporters throughout the region. . . . U.S. officials involved in Central America failed to address the drug issue for fear of jeopardizing the war efforts against Nicaragua. . . . In each case, one or another agency of the U.S. government had information regarding the involvement either while it was occurring, or immediately thereafter. . . . Senior U.S. policy makers were not immune to the idea that drug money was a perfect solution to the contras’ funding problems.”

In Costa Rica, which served as the “Southern Front” for the contras (Honduras being the Northern Front), there were several CIA-contra networks involved in drug trafficking. In addition to those servicing the Meneses-Blandon operation (detailed by the Mercury News) and Noriega’s operation, there was CIA operative John Hull, whose farms along Costa Rica’s border with Nicaragua were the main staging area for the contras. Hull and other CIA-connected contra supporters and pilots teamed up with George Morales, a major Miami-based Colombian drug trafficker who later admitted to giving $3 million in cash and several planes to contra leaders. In 1989, after the Costa Rica government indicted Hull for drug trafficking, a DEA-hired plane clandestinely and illegally flew the CIA operative to Miami, via Haiti. The U.S. repeatedly thwarted Costa Rican efforts to extradite Hull to Costa Rica to stand trial.

Another Costa Rican-based drug ring involved a group of Cuban Americans whom the CIA had hired as military trainers for the contras. Many had long been involved with the CIA and drug trafficking. They used contra planes and a Costa Rican-based shrimp company, which laundered money for the CIA, to channel cocaine to the U.S.

Costa Rica was not the only route. Guatemala, whose military intelligence service–closely associated with the CIA–harbored many drug traffickers, according to the DEA, was another way station along the cocaine highway. Additionally, the Medellín cartel’s Miami accountant, Ramon Milian Rodriguez, testified that he funneled nearly $10 million to Nicaraguan contras through long-time CIA operative Felix Rodriguez, who was based at Ilopango Air Force Base in El Salvador.

The contras provided both protection and infrastructure (planes, pilots, airstrips, warehouses, front companies, and banks) to these CIA-linked drug networks. At least four transport companies under investigation for drug trafficking received U.S. government contracts to carry nonlethal supplies to the contras. Southern Air Transport, “formerly” CIA-owned and later under Pentagon contract, was involved in the drug running as well. Cocaine-laden planes flew to Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and other locations, including several military bases. Designated as “Contra Craft,” these shipments were not to be inspected. When some authority wasn’t apprised and made an arrest, powerful strings were pulled to result in dropping the case, acquittal, reduced sentence, or deportation.

Mid-1980s to early 1990s, Haiti

While working to keep key Haitian military and political leaders in power, the CIA turned a blind eye to their clients’ drug trafficking. In 1986, the Agency added some more names to its payroll by creating a new Haitian organization, the National Intelligence Service (SIN). SIN’s mandate included countering the cocaine trade, though SIN officers themselves engaged in trafficking, a trade aided and abetted by some Haitian military and political leaders.

1980s to early 1990s, Afghanistan

CIA-supported Moujahedeen rebels engaged heavily in drug trafficking while fighting the Soviet-supported government, which had plans to reform Afghan society. The Agency’s principal client was Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the leading drug lords and the biggest heroin refiner, who was also the largest recipient of CIA military support. CIA-supplied trucks and mules that had carried arms into Afghanistan were used to transport opium to laboratories along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The output provided up to one-half of the heroin used annually in the United States and three-quarters of that used in Western Europe. U.S. officials admitted in 1990 that they had failed to investigate or take action against the drug operation because of a desire not to offend their Pakistani and Afghan allies. In 1993, an official of the DEA dubbed Afghanistan the new Colombia of the drug world.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 21:20

Federal Courts To Scale Back Operations As Shutdown Exhausts Funds

Zero Hedge -

Federal Courts To Scale Back Operations As Shutdown Exhausts Funds

With the government shutdown about to enter its third week, the federal court system announced Friday that it will begin operating in a limited, unpaid capacity starting Monday - having exhausted the last of the court fees and other stopgap funds that had kept its doors open since Oct. 1.

Los Angeles Federal Courthouse (Bryan Chan,  LA Times)

In a statement, the judiciary said that beginning Oct. 20, it will “no longer have funding to sustain full, paid operations” across its 94 district and 13 circuit courts. The move marks one of the most significant contractions in the judicial branch in decades, as courts transition to the minimum operations required by law until Congress restores government funding.

Essential Functions Only

“Until the ongoing lapse in government funding is resolved, federal courts will maintain limited operations necessary to perform the Judiciary’s constitutional functions,” the statement read.

Under the Anti-Deficiency Act, federal employees are prohibited from working without appropriations except in narrowly defined circumstances, such as activities essential to human safety, the protection of property, or the performance of constitutional duties.

Judges, who serve under Article III of the Constitution, will continue to work. But most court employees - including clerks, probation officers, and administrative staff - will either be furloughed or required to work without pay if their duties qualify as “excepted activities.”

Each appellate, district, and bankruptcy court will decide independently how to manage its docket and staffing. Some proceedings will move forward, particularly those involving urgent matters such as detention hearings or imminent deadlines, while other civil and criminal cases are expected to be delayed indefinitely.

Jury Trials, PACER to Continue

Despite the funding lapse, the jury program will remain operational because it draws on funds not tied to congressional appropriations. Jurors have been instructed to continue reporting to courthouses unless otherwise notified.

The judiciary’s electronic filing and case management systems (CM/ECF and PACER) will also remain functional, allowing attorneys to file motions and review case information online. But administrative offices in Washington will be closed, and public telephone lines for the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts will go unanswered.

Mounting Strain on a Burdened System

The slowdown will deepen the strain on a court system that was already struggling under heavy caseloads before the shutdown began. Legal analysts warn that even a short disruption in operations could ripple through the justice system, delaying trials, probation supervision, and appeals work for months.

The judiciary has been warning since Oct. 1 that it could keep business running only briefly using non-appropriated funds, a senior court administrator who was not authorized to speak publicly told Axios

The Senate on Thursday rejected a House plan to reopen the government for the tenth time since the shutdown began, and lawmakers do not plan to reconvene on the issue until next week—making it increasingly unlikely that courts will be fully funded before the shutdown enters its fourth week.

With thousands of judicial employees joining the ranks of the hundreds of thousands already furloughed or laid off across the federal government.

Somehow, we imagine activist judges will still find the time to issue TROs whenever Trump issues an executive order. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 20:55

Ray Dalio Explains Why Gold & Why Now...

Zero Hedge -

Ray Dalio Explains Why Gold & Why Now...

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated on Friday that gold has started replacing some U.S. Treasury holdings as the riskless asset for investors, amid a continued surge in the yellow metal’s prices.

This comes after he said investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold even as the precious metal surged to new all-time highs this week.

“Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio,” Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich, Connecticut.

“If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective, you would probably have something like 15% of your portfolio in gold … because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down.”

Dalio took to social media on Wednesday to invite questions about gold as an investment.

His X post saw over 750 replies, with 1200 responses at the time of writing.

In a follow-up post on X, Dalio summarized his answers to the many questions and his views on the barbarous relic...

You seem to look at gold and the gold price differently from most people. How do you think about gold?

You're right. I think most people make the mistake of thinking of gold as a metal rather than as the most established form of money, and they think of fiat money as money rather than debt and they think that fiat money will be created to prevent debt defaults. That's because most people have never lived with gold being the most fundamental money, and they haven't studied the debt-gold-money cycles that have occurred in almost all countries over almost all time. However, anyone who has seen gold-money and debt-money evolve over time has a different view.  In other words, to me gold is money like cash—over time, it has had about the same real return (1.2%)—because it doesn't produce anything. But like cash, it has buying power that can be used to create money that is borrowed and enable people to do things like build money-making businesses that are owned via stocks. If those stocks are solid and produce the cash needed to pay back the loans, then of course the stocks are better. When they can’t pay back the loans and fiat money is printed to prevent the default problems, then non-fiat money (gold) is most valued. So, to me, gold is money like cash, except unlike cash it can’t be printed and devalued. It’s a good diversifier to stocks and bonds when bubbles pop and/or when people and countries don’t accept each other's credit, like in wars.

In other words, to me gold is the most sound fundamental investment rather than a metal. Gold is money like cash and short-term credit, but unlike cash and short-term credit which creates debt, it settles transactions—i.e., it pays for things without creating debt and it pays off debt.

Anyway, it has been obvious to me for some time that the relative supplies and demands of debt-money and gold-money were shifting against debt money’s value relative to gold money’s value. As for the right price for debt money to be relative to gold money, given the ratios of supplies and demands for each of them, and given the sizes of bubbles that could go pop, I know that I want to keep my piece of gold that’s part of my portfolio, and I think that those who are wrestling between having no gold at all or a small amount of gold are making a mistake.

Why gold? Why not silver, platinum or other commodities, or inflation-indexed bonds as you have suggested.

While other metals can be good inflation hedges, gold occupies a unique place in the portfolios of investors and central bankers because it is the most universally-accepted non-fiat currency-based medium of exchange and store-hold of wealth, and it is a good diversifier to other assets and currencies in these portfolios. Unlike fiat currency debt, it doesn't have the same inherent credit and devaluation risks—in fact, it diversifies against them because when they are doing worst, gold does best —acting almost like an “insurance policy” within a diversified portfolio.

While silver and platinum share some similarities with gold—particularly in terms of industrial applications—they do not possess the same level of historical and cultural significance as a store of value. Silver, for instance, is more heavily influenced by industrial demand, which can lead to greater price volatility, though it has been used as the basis of currency systems before. Platinum, though valuable, is even more constrained by its limited supply and specific industrial uses. Consequently, neither metal enjoys the same universal acceptance or stability as gold when it comes to wealth preservation.

Regarding inflation-indexed bonds, while they are a good and under-appreciated inflation hedge asset in normal times (depending on the real interest rate they offer at the time) and I believe more investors should consider them in their portfolios, they are still fundamentally debt obligations. So if there is a big debt crisis, their performance is tied to the creditworthiness of the issuing government.  They are also subject to government rigging, like rigging the official inflation numbers or other terms governing them, which history has shown to be the common problem with inflation-indexed bonds when there was high inflation in countries led by leaders who wanted to get around high debt-service costs. Moreover, while effective in combating inflation, they do not provide the same degree of diversification or safety net as gold during systemic financial crises or periods of severe economic distress.

As for stocks, especially those in high-growth sectors like AI, they undeniably carry the potential for substantial returns, though they have proven to be bad performers in inflation-adjusted terms both because their inflation hedging characteristics are limited and because, during really bad times, the economy and the businesses do badly.

To summarize, gold is a uniquely good diversifier to these other assets and diversification matters, so it has a place in most portfolios.

Hi Ray, at least AI has enormous upside and debt instruments pay interest, while gold may only look pretty solid until any of the big holders like the banks want to sell.

I can see that you don't like gold for the reasons you said, and I don't want to advocate for it (or any other investment) because I don't want to drift into becoming a tipster. That won't do anyone any good. I just want to share what I know about the mechanics. As for investing, I'm more in favor of great diversification than in favor of any single market, though I tilt my portfolio significantly based on my indicators and what I think, which for quite some time has led (and still leads) me to a big tilt toward gold. If you're interested in why, my book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle explains my thinking much more comprehensively than I can do here.

As far as the alternative markets you mention, it seems to me that in the case of AI stocks, in the long run their upside depends on their pricing relative to their future cash flows, which are extremely uncertain, and, in the short run, it depends on bubble dynamics. I believe that we should be mindful of the lessons that analogous cases in history provide, in which the breakthrough technology companies became very popular as they are now. I'm not saying definitively that these companies are in bubbles—though they are showing lots of signs of being in bubbles based on my bubble indicator.  In any case, an awful lot about the markets and the economy hinges on the AI boom companies doing better than is discounted in their pricing, because, if they don't, their stocks will go down. These stocks have accounted for 80pct of the gains in U.S. stocks, the top 10pct of income earners own 85pct the stocks and account for half of consumer spending, and these AI companies' capital expenditures have accounted for 40pct of this year's economic growth, so a downturn would be really bad for people's wealth and the economy.  It seems obvious that some diversification of one's holdings would be prudent.

As far as your observation that "debt instruments pay interest," for these debt instruments to be good storeholds of wealth, they have to pay a decent real after-tax interest rate. There is a lot of pressure to lower the real interest rate, and there is an oversupply of debt that is being added to more quickly than the demand for it. So, we are seeing a diversification out of debt and into gold, while there isn't enough gold to diversify into.

Putting aside tactical considerations, gold is a very effective diversifier to these other investments and if individual and institutional investors and central banks put an appropriate share their portfolios in gold for diversification purposes, the price would have to be much higher (I will soon send you my analysis of it) because the quantity is so limited. In any case for me, I want to have some piece of the portfolio in it, and figuring out what that piece should be is important. Without giving specific investment advice, I do recommend that people ask themselves the fundamental question of how much to allocate to gold. For most investors, I think this is likely 10-15pct.

Now that the price of gold has gone up, should I still own it at this price?

To me, the most simple and fundamental question that everyone should ask themselves and answer is what percentage of my portfolio should I have in gold if I don’t have a clue about the direction of gold and other markets? In other words, how much gold should I have for strategic asset allocation reasons, rather than because I want to make a tactical bet on it. Because of its historical negative correlations with other assets (mostly stocks and bonds), most importantly when the real returns of stocks and bonds are bad, the answer is that about 15pct is best because that would give the best portfolio return-to-risk ratio.

However, because gold's expected return over time is low just like the return of cash is low (though it behaves spectacularly in the times of greatest need), over long periods of time that better return-to-risk portfolio comes at the expense of a lower return. Because I like the better return ratio and don't want to lower the expected return, I hold my gold position as an overlay, or I lever up the whole portfolio a bit so as to have both the better return-risk ratio and the same expected return. That’s how I view, the right amount of gold to have for most people.

As for tactical bets, that's another subject that I have shared my points of view about and won't reiterate here, other than to say I wouldn't encourage others to make them.

How has the expansion of gold ETFs (dominated by retail) affected the overall direction of the price of gold?

The price of anything equals the total amount of money buyers have to give sellers divided by the quantity of the item that sellers have for buyers. The motivations of buyers and sellers and the vehicles used to buy and sell are of course important influences. The rise of gold ETFs has created more vehicles to buy and sell for both retail and institutional investors, and this change has generally increased liquidity and transparency while making it marginally easier for a broader range of investors to participate. But at the same time, the market for gold ETFs is still much smaller than traditional physical gold investment or central bank holdings, so it has not been the main source of buying or the main reason for the price increase.

Has gold begun to replace US Treasury holdings as the riskless asset? If so, can gold support a massive shift in holdings?

A factual answer to your question is yes gold has begun to replace some US Treasury holdings as the riskless asset in many portfolios, most importantly in central banks and large institutional portfolios. The holders of these portfolios have decreased their U.S. Treasury holdings relative to their gold holdings. By the way, anyone with a long-term historical perspective would say that, compared to Treasuries or any other fiat currency denominated debt, gold is the more riskless asset.

Gold is the most well-established currency—in fact it is now the second largest held by central banks—and has proven to be much less risky than all government’s debt assets. Historically and now, debt assets are commitments by debtors to deliver money to the creditor. Sometimes that money was gold and sometimes it was fiat money that could be printed. Historically when there was too much debt to be paid back with the money that existed, central banks printed money to pay back the debt. This devalued it. When money was gold, they defaulted on their promises to pay back in gold and instead paid back with printed money, and when the money was fiat money, they just printed the money. History shows us that the biggest risk is that debt assets like U.S. Treasuries will either be defaulted on or devalued, more likely devalued. History has also shown that gold is a money and store-hold of wealth that has intrinsic value, so it doesn’t depend on anyone giving the holder of it anything other than the gold itself. It has been a timeless and universal money. History has also shown that, since 1750, about 80pct of all currencies have disappeared and the other 20pct have all been severely devalued.

Finally, Dalio reminded readers that gold stands apart as a hedge in times of monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty: “Gold is the only asset that somebody can hold and you don’t have to depend on somebody else to pay you money for,” he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 20:30

Texas Governor To Deploy National Guard To Austin's 'No Kings' Protest

Zero Hedge -

Texas Governor To Deploy National Guard To Austin's 'No Kings' Protest

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is deploying the Texas National Guard and state troopers to Austin ahead of a planned “No Kings” protest Saturday.

The governor in a post on X described the protest as “Antifa-linked.” He didn’t say how Antifa is connected to the scheduled protest.

Antifa is a far-left extremist group that originated under the Soviet Union and functioned as the violent wing of Germany’s Communist Party to target political rivals. The group generally labeled its perceived enemies as “fascists.” Antifa’s mission is to stop people it deems to be fascists by “any means necessary,” including violence, its leaders say.

Abbott’s action follows President Donald Trump’s designation of Antifa as a domestic terrorist group on Sept. 22. Trump also signed a presidential memorandum on Sept. 25 with the aim of dismantling what he said are left-wing terrorism networks in the United States. The presidential actions were taken after conservative commentator Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event at a university in Utah on Sept. 10.

“No Kings” protests against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests of illegal immigrants are also planned for Saturday in Dallas, Houston, and other locations across Texas and the United States.​

“Texas will not tolerate chaos,” Abbott wrote on X. “Anyone destroying property or committing acts of violence will be swiftly arrested.”

In a statement, Abbott said that the surge in troops will support the thousands of Texas Department of Public Safety troopers already stationed throughout the state.

However, the governor didn’t specify if guardsmen would be sent to other Texas cities involved in the protests, such as Houston, Dallas, and Lubbock.

The state’s Homeland Security Division is actively monitoring the planned protest in Austin, as well as any other potential violent demonstrations across the state, according to the statement.​

“These law enforcement officers and soldiers will be supported by aircraft and other tactical assets,” Abbott’s release stated.

“DPS will investigate any links to known terrorist organizations and swiftly bring charges against those who engage in unlawful activity.”

​In June, Abbott sent guardsmen to “No Kings” protests statewide after anti-ICE riots broke out in Los Angeles.

Masses of demonstrators participated in “No Kings” protests in cities across the United States on June 14, rallying against Trump’s agenda.

Organizers of the protests said millions had marched in hundreds of events.

Earlier this month, Abbott also deployed 400 Texas National Guard members to Chicago in support of Trump’s ongoing immigration enforcement operations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 20:05

Trump Commutes Sentence Of Former Rep. George Santos; Savages 'Da Nang Dick' Blumenthal

Zero Hedge -

Trump Commutes Sentence Of Former Rep. George Santos; Savages 'Da Nang Dick' Blumenthal

Former Rep. George Santos reported to prison in late July to serve an 87-month sentence.

The sentence followed his unprecedented expulsion from the House before a criminal conviction.

President Trump on Friday commuted the more than seven-year prison sentence of Santos for fraud and identity theft, ordering his immediate release.

Santos pleaded guilty to inflating fundraising figures and falsifying donor names to secure the Republican Party’s financial support during the 2022 election cycle.

He was expelled from the party in December 2023.

“George Santos was somewhat of a ‘rogue,’ but there are many rogues throughout our country who aren’t forced to serve seven years in prison,” Trump said on Truth Social.

“Therefore, I just signed a commutation, releasing George Santos from prison IMMEDIATELY,” he added.

Trump said that he decided to commute Santos' sentence after he was reminded of other lawmakers who falsified their backgrounds, including Connecticut Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal who lied about serving in Vietnam.

"[Blumenthal] stated for almost twenty years that he was a proud Vietnam Veteran, having endured the worst of the War, watching the Wounded and Dead as he raced up the hills and down the valleys, blood streaming from his face," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"He was 'a Great Hero,' he would leak to any and all who would listen — And then it happened! He was a COMPLETE AND TOTAL FRAUD. 

"He never went to Vietnam, he never saw Vietnam, he never experienced the Battles there, or anywhere else," Trump continued.

"His War Hero status, and even minimal service in our Military, was totally and completely MADE UP. This is far worse than what Santos did, and at least Santos had the Courage, Conviction, and Intelligence to always vote Republican."

Trump has previously pardoned other criminals, including 1,500 Jan. 6 defendants.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 19:40

Can Diet-Changes Really Transform ADHD? One Family's Remarkable Discovery

Zero Hedge -

Can Diet-Changes Really Transform ADHD? One Family's Remarkable Discovery

Authored by Amy Denney via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the most unexpected way, Jenny Dunlap stumbled upon a solution for her oldest son’s attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Halfpoint/Shutterstock

When her youngest child was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, Dunlap’s whole family stopped eating sugar and grains. By eliminating these foods, her older son, John - whose behavioral and social struggles hadn’t been resolved with various therapies or medication - was suddenly like a different person.

“He brought home A [grades]. All of his teachers were happy. He was organized. His constipation went away. All sleep issues went away. There were no peer problems anymore. It was literally like a light switch,” Dunlap said. [ZH: we're sure John appreciates the world knowing about his constipation, thanks Mom...]

John Dunlap (left) smiles alongside younger brother, Will, whose Type 1 diabetes diagnosis led to John's ADHD improvements. Courtesy of Jenny Dunlap

Removing certain foods from a child’s diet appears to be a promising therapeutic approach for those with ADHD. Diet is not likely to be recommended in a conventional setting because special diets are among lifestyle modifications that are often dismissed for too little evidence or benefit to recommend. However, there is evidence for guidance elsewhere.

Power of Elimination

Some children with ADHD may benefit from eliminating foods from their diet, according to a review on the role of nutrition in managing ADHD. Published in Current Nutrition Reports, the review found scant evidence to support supplementing with micronutrients, probiotics, and omega-3 fatty acids.

However, a diet described as a “few-foods diet” may become a therapeutic option for children with ADHD. The strategy involves eliminating most foods from the diet for a period of time and then slowly reintroducing them one at a time to see whether they trigger ADHD symptoms.

Up to 60 percent of those using the diet responded positively, the authors wrote, revealing the role food intolerance may play in ADHD symptomatology.

“This promising personalized nutrition-based approach to the management of ADHD deserves further systematic investigation and should be considered in all children with ADHD,” the authors stated.

The review noted several double-blind placebo-controlled studies that have linked foods to ADHD triggers and the few-foods diet to improvement of symptoms. The few-foods diet eliminates all but easily digestible, plain foods, such as lamb, turkey, rice, butter, corn, potatoes, honey, and some vegetables.

Other research has shown that hyperactivity in children is associated with artificial food colors and chemical preservatives.

Currently, the American Academy of Pediatrics’ treatment recommendations highlight diet modification among non-medication treatments for ADHD that have either too little evidence to recommend or have little or no benefit. The academy didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ question about whether recommendations have been updated to include diet.

Official Recommendations

Currently, conventional treatment for children with ADHD offers a dichotomy of either behavioral therapy starting in preschool-age children or medication.

Medication should not be a first-line treatment for preschoolers. Instead, younger children should receive behavioral classroom interventions as the first line of treatment.

Parent training in behavior management is so effective for all children that the guidelines suggest it be recommended before pursuing an ADHD diagnosis.

Methylphenidate, a nervous system stimulant known by brand names such as Concerta and Ritalin, can be used for 4- and 5-year-olds if behavioral interventions don’t result in significant improvement and if there is moderate to severe functional disturbance.

The clinician needs to weigh the risks of starting medication before the age of 6 years against the harm of delaying treatment,” according to guidelines.

There is concern, however, that medication might be given too soon in many cases. A recent study published in JAMA Network Open found that among preschool-age patients who visited their primary care doctor for ADHD at eight U.S. health systems, 68.2 percent were prescribed medication, and 42.2 percent had medications prescribed within 30 days of their diagnosis.

The guidelines note that methylphenidate is the only ADHD medication that can be used for preschoolers, as it has the best safety and efficacy record. Nevertheless, the guidelines said that the drug does not have U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for use in preschool-age children. Methylphenidate can cause low appetite, sleep disruption, headache, increased heart rate, and other side effects.

Proper Use of Medication

Dunlap was less concerned with the official guidelines and more focused on following her intuition when John was young. That meant avoiding medication as long as possible.

The wild one of her three children, John, often got into trouble, lost friends, and was kicked off a team sport. His teachers frequently complained, and after various vitamins, cognitive behavioral therapy, coping skills, and meditation failed, Dunlap finally relented to the medication she’d been avoiding. By then, he was in the fourth grade.

Until his diet changed, John Dunlap couldn't focus on schoolwork. Courtesy of Jenny DunlapJenny Dunlap continues to be amazed by the unprovoked emails from teachers who tell her what a great kid her son John is. For years, the only notes she received were about his disruptive behavior. Courtesy of Jenny Dunlap

John tried several stimulant medications until he ended up on Concerta, which she describes as “the best of the worst.” Still, the drug wasn’t a panacea. He struggled emotionally and didn’t have optimal sleep or bowel movement habits.

Reflecting on John’s journey, Dunlap was frustrated that nutrition or diet was never addressed at any of the appointments John had over the years, particularly after failed cognitive behavioral therapy and continued struggles.

“It’s just so easy to label everybody, and it’s too easy to hand out these prescriptions,” Dunlap said. “Parents aren’t told, ‘Hey, let’s check some other avenues and see why your kid is behaving this way.’”

Food as a Root Cause?

It’s conceivable that poor, sugar-laden eating patterns are driving symptoms that mimic or exacerbate ADHD, psychotherapist Karen A. Dwyer-Tesoriero told The Epoch Times.

One common scenario is children who eat sugary cereals for breakfast, starting their school day with a sugar crash that causes them to act out or become lethargic and inattentive, she said.

Psychologists and researchers Bonnie J. Kaplan and Julia J. Rucklidge recommend dietary changes before counseling and family therapy.

In their book, “The Better Brain,” they recommend that mental health clinics educate all new referrals on nutrition and how to shop for whole foods. They estimated that one-third of mental health referrals, including ADHD, would need no further services if they adjusted their diets.

“Given that all our mental health resources are stretched very thin, isn’t this a good-news story?” they wrote, adding that in years of practice, clients reported that they could better implement therapeutic strategies once they began eating more whole foods.

The Ease and Affordability of Diet

A good start is eliminating artificial dyes, flavors, and additives, according to Julie Matthews, certified nutrition consultant and author of “The Personalized Autism Nutrition Plan,” a book that also covers ADHD.

From there, parents can consider a gluten-free or dairy-free diet, or the Feingold diet, a whole-food diet with no artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives that is also low in naturally occurring salicylates, a toxin produced by some plants, she told The Epoch Times.

In an observational study she authored on various healthy diets in children with autism, the Feingold diet was found to reduce hyperactivity by 45 percent.

“It comes down to what is bothering the individual and removing that,” Matthews said. “It’s a bit tragic that something so simple could make such a profound difference, and yet people are not hearing about it when it’s such an easy thing to change.”

In some cases, she said, there may be imbalances in the gut microbiome or other nutritional changes that are more complicated to pinpoint. However, in many cases, it boils down to eating a healthier diet with fewer additives.

A plant-based Mediterranean diet, for instance, has proven beneficial for brain health, among other lifestyle interventions such as sleep and exercise.

Careful Integration of Guidelines

Medication is helpful, and it holds a place among other tools.

Integrative pediatrician Dr. Joel “Gator” Warsh told The Epoch Times that a careful application of ADHD recommendations should involve earnestly trying behavioral therapy and parent training before medication, particularly in younger children, as the guidelines suggest.

Cognitive behavioral therapy begins with a diagnosis that identifies a child’s unique struggles and then involves tools that target that child’s specific struggles, such as improving focus or reducing impulsivity.

Parent training is used to educate parents on the way their child’s brain works and how to best support deficiencies with tools learned in therapy.

“When symptoms remain severe—impacting safety, school performance, relationships, and daily functioning—medications can have an important role,” Warsh said. “In those cases, short-term use of stimulants, carefully monitored, can give children the ability to focus, follow routines, and begin building healthier work and life habits.”

The goal is to use the lowest effective dose for the shortest time necessary while continuing to work on behavioral, educational, and lifestyle changes, he added.

Other Options

Besides behavioral and parental training, experts said there are plenty of other ways to deal with symptoms such as hyperactivity, behavioral outbursts, and lack of focus that are common in young children.

Warsh suggested offering daily opportunities for vigorous play, creating more structured routines, reducing screen time, and optimizing sleep. Additionally, there could be underlying contributors such as anxiety, learning differences, and poor gut health.

Be cautious about trendy programs, he added, such as mindfulness apps and broad elimination diets, in which evidence is mixed. Consider asking about an individualized education program at school.

Dwyer-Tesoriero suggested some strategies that can work in the morning and evening when parents are most likely to be with their children:

  • Identify an exercise or movement like dancing or stretching that your child likes and encourage it daily.
  • Encourage kids to hyperfocus on something they love.
  • Calmly tell your children, if they start misbehaving, that there will be consequences, rather than reacting to intense emotions.
  • Pick one battle at a time, such as working on closing cabinet doors after use. Don’t work on other behaviors until they’ve mastered one.
  • Substitute immediate rewards for behavior charts, such as offering time for video games when you notice they’ve completed a task without asking or behaved well.
  • Use visual checklists for routine expectations, such as getting dressed and ready to leave the house or for brushing teeth.

It’s helpful to remember that not all ADHD traits are negative,  Dwyer-Tesoriero added, noting that some are actually quite useful.

“There are a lot of careers out there that really lend themselves to ADHD,” she said. “Our society is filled with adults who have ADHD, and it is not, for lack of a better word, like the kiss of death.

*  *  * [ZH] The first two weeks are the hardest. We recommend this channel for more.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/17/2025 - 19:15

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