My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Congrats. You’re About to Unwittingly Make Elon Musk a Trillionaire. SpaceX is IPOing next week. And there’s a good chance you’re gonna own a portion of it—whether you like it or not. (The Bulwark)

• Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks: Politico on the API and major-producer warnings going into the White House — Hormuz risk, tanker insurance, refining maintenance, all aligned the wrong way. The Semafor piece’s nervous companion. Industry executives said the loss of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is draining petroleum inventories to dangerously low levels. (Politico) but see Why isn’t oil more expensive? With peace talks between Iran and the US in limbo, one of the main questions looming over global energy markets is why the price of oil isn’t much higher than it is. Semafor on the puzzle of mid-$60s crude in the middle of an Iran war — Saudi spare capacity, US shale resilience, and demand softness all pulling in the same direction. The bear case in one note. (Semafor)

• The United States Capital Structure.The U.S. federal government is arguably the largest issuer of safe debt in the world: roughly $28 trillion of marketable Treasury debt. These Treasurys are backed only by the full faith and credit of the United States Treasury. There is no specific source of revenue that is earmarked to pay back these Treasurys, unlike, say, municipal bonds that are backed by toll revenue. How safe are these promises, really? (The Two Cents)

• After 60/40: The Hidden Cost of Uninvested Capital Through the J-Curve. When building a strategic private markets allocation, the waiting period can carry a meaningful cost. The question is not only how to access private markets, but how to manage uncalled capital during the ramp-up period. Apollo making the case for private-markets allocation by costing out the cash drag during the J-curve. Sponsored research, but the framework is worth the read regardless. (Apollo)

• I Fed the People Building the Metaverse: A former Reality Labs caterer’s essay on what cooking inside Meta’s metaverse division actually looked like. The food sociology of a tech-cycle bust, told with affection. (Yeast Confections)

• How much more software do we really need?: Probably a lot, but not necessarily the kinds people have made money on so far. Noah Smith with the question every VC deck quietly avoids — the marginal utility of net-new SaaS in a market already drowning in seat licenses. A useful counterweight to AI-app exuberance. (Noahpinion) see also What We Learned About the AI Threat From Q1 Software Earnings: In most cases, the death of software companies has been exaggerated, according to Morningstar analysts. (Morningstar)

• 1,000 True Fans. To be a successful creator you don’t need millions. You don’t need millions of dollars or millions of customers, millions of clients or millions of fans. To make a living as a craftsperson, photographer, musician, designer, author, animator, app maker, entrepreneur, or inventor you need only thousands of true fans. Kevin Kelly’s 2008 essay, still the cleanest articulation of the creator economy. Re-reading it in 2026 is a useful reality check on what actually scaled and what did not. (The Technium)

• Sticker Shock at the Pump Fuels a Surge in Hybrid Sales: Sales of hybrid cars carried the day in May as buyers seek better fuel economy. WSJ on the consumer pivot the auto industry kept saying would not happen — buyers walking past pure EVs to hybrids the second gasoline tipped. Toyota, of all companies, was right. (Wall Street Journal)

• This Is the Formula That Defeated Orban. It Would Defeat Trump, Too. outlandish xenophobic and antisemitic propaganda had served Orban well for years. It didn’t work against Peter Magyar — probably because so many Hungarians got to see him in person, many of them repeatedly. This is another lesson of his success: Old-fashioned in-person politics can be a powerful antidote to media fearmongering. NYT opinion on the Hungarian opposition playbook that finally landed — coalition discipline, local infrastructure, and abandoning the moral-high-ground talking points. Specific, transferable, worth the read. (New York Times)

• Emily Blunt Was Drunk in a Club When a Phone Call Changed Her Life: WSJ profile of Emily Blunt pegged to the new Devil Wears Prada follow-up. The opening anecdote earns the headline; the rest is better than the celebrity-profile genre usually allows. The English actress is having a blockbuster year, between reprising her breakout role and starring in Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: How Shakespeare Manipulates An Audience

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Funds. The firm oversees $20 billion in client assets, with Davis (and colleagues) co-investing $2 billion in their own mineus alongside shareholders. Davis was named Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager of the Year; he also sits on the boards of Berkshire Hathaway and Coca-Cola.

 

Consumers are in a foul, foul mood

Source: Axios

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The French Never Wanted Mass Immigration

Via Remix News,

French leaders know how to manipulate their voters, but the voters are also apparently easily manipulated. Every leader from French President Emmanuel Macron to François Mitterrand in the 1980s has decried immigration numbers and promised a crackdown, all while allowing immigration numbers to continuously climb year after year.

Here are just some relevant quotes:

Emmanuel Macron said in 2023: “There is an immigration problem in France.”

In 2016, then French President François Hollande said, “There are too many arrivals, immigration that shouldn’t be there.”

In 2023, then leader Nicolas Sarkozy said: “There are too many immigrants in France.”

In 1991, former leader Jacques Chirac said, “We must stop family reunification. We must completely revise the right of asylum. We must open the debate on the right of all foreigners to social benefits.”

In 1989, the famous leader François Mitterrand said, “On immigration matters, we have crossed the tolerance threshold.”

The age-old adage is that “nobody voted for this.”

It is true that the specific question of mass immigration never came to a referendum, but it is also fair to say that some very pro-migrant candidates, such as Macron, have continuously made it into office.

Still, one would assume that in a democratic system, with leader after leader calling for a halt to immigration, that immigration levels would tend to trend lower. However, this is not how Western democracy has worked over the last decades. The same developments have been seen in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States. Leaders know the masses are unhappy about immigration, so they make proclamations against immigration to placate the masses, all while actual policy serves an entirely different purpose.

Macron is arguably the worst offender the French have ever seen when it comes to migration. In 2023, he said France must reduce immigration, beginning with legal entrants in a wide-ranging interview with weekly political magazine Le Point. Macron’s remark comes after he said in 2022 that migration “is part of France’s DNA” and oversaw a record increase in immigrants in 2022.

What has his record been since then?

Well, Macron was lying, as this chart clearly shows:

The foreign population has soared year after year, reaching record after record. In 2025, a record number of first-time legal residence permits were issued, totaling 384,000. In short, France is being buried in a wave of mass immigration that only a minority of French actually wanted. The estimates of how many foreigners are now living in France varies wildly, with some figures going as high as 9 million. However, there are also millions of legal French citizens who also have a migration background, which has led to a massive demographic shift.

Poll after poll has shown the French are remarkably opposed to mass immigration.

In a CSA poll for CNews in 2023, 64 percent of French said “we should stop non-European immigration to France.”

In a CSA poll for Europe 1 in 2024, 48 percent of French people said they wanted zero immigrants coming to the country, including 53 percent of women respondents.

In an Ifop poll in 2026, 60 percent of French people said they believe France is witnessing “a replacement of the French population by non-European populations, mainly from the African continent.”

In a poll from Odoxa-Backbone Consulting for Le Figaro in 2023, 74 percent of French said they believe there are too many migrants in France and 72 percent said they want a referendum on immigration.

In a CSA poll for CNews in 2023, 80 percent of French said they support a total ban on more immigration.

Meanwhile, in communist China, where there is not even an illusion of a democratic vote, foreigners only make up 0.06 percent of the population of 1.4 billion people. It may be hard to believe for many, but there are now fewer foreigners in all of China, at 845,000, than there are in just one European city, Berlin.

The political leaders that have governed the West have lied every step of the way on immigration, and in the process, they have gravely imperiled democracy. Many looking to authoritarian China see a country on the rise, where high-speed trains and critical infrastructure are quickly and efficiently erected, where crime is low, and social cohesion generally high.

Meanwhile, Europe is throwing up protectionist barriers against China at a time when China is pulling ahead in green energy, automobile manufacturing, machine tools, and AI.

Mass immigration has been an unmitigated economic, educational, security, and budget disaster for the West.

Democracy itself should not necessarily be condemned, however. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, all thriving democracies, have managed to keep their borders almost entirely closed to mass immigration while growing their economies, all based on the will of the people.

In the end, it may have something to do with Europeans themselves and their culture of guilt, self-righteousness, and virtue signaling, which are attitudes that tend to dominate amongst European populations. The trend has been remarkably uniform across the Western world. It is not only France, but also the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, all marching in lockstep. While we can point our fingers at the mass media and academia, we also have to look at ourselves in the mirror and ask how we collectively allowed this to happen.

Read more here....

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 03:30

Support For Germany's AfD 'Firewall' Plummets As Voters Call To Bring Party In From The Cold

Via Remix News,

Germany's long-running "firewall" that sees the country's legacy parties exclude cooperation with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is moving further out of step with a large section of the electorate, with new polling showing voters now evenly divided over the governing CDU's refusal to work with the nationalist party.

Alice Weidel (AfD), federal chairwoman and parliamentary group leader, walks past Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) in the plenary session of the German Bundestag. (Photo by Lilli Förter/picture alliance via Getty Images)

According to the latest Deutschlandtrend survey by Infratest Dimap for ARD and Welt, 47 percent of Germans now say the CDU's exclusion of cooperation with the AfD is not right, while the same proportion say it is right. That marks a significant shift since September 2024, with opposition to the stance rising by 12 points and support falling by 13 points.

The figures come as the AfD remains Germany's strongest party in the national polling. Infratest Dimap puts the AfD unchanged on 27 percent, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 23 percent, with the Greens on 14 percent, the SPD on 13 percent, and the Left Party on 10 percent. The FDP and BSW would both remain below the five-percent threshold for entering parliament.

The CDU's position still has clearer backing among its own voters, with 62 percent of CDU/CSU supporters saying the exclusion of cooperation with the AfD is right. However, the wider national picture suggests the policy is no longer backed by a clear public majority.

The east-west divide is particularly stark on the AfD question. In western Germany, a narrow majority still supports excluding cooperation with the AfD, 50 percent in favor to 45 percent against. In the east, where the AfD has built some of its strongest support, a clear majority opposes the CDU's stance, 58 percent against to 38 percent in favor.

The poll also points to a deeper crisis of confidence in Germany's established parties. Only half of respondents said they support their preferred party out of conviction, while 46 percent said their choice was driven by disappointment with the alternatives. When the same question was asked in 2018, 61 percent said conviction was the main reason for their party preference.

That disappointment is especially pronounced among AfD voters. The poll found that 57 percent of AfD supporters are motivated primarily by frustration with other parties, although the party also scores strongly on its political program among its own base.

The findings come after a series of strong results and polling boosts for the AfD, particularly in eastern Germany. Last month, AfD politician René Stadtkewitz won a snap mayoral election in Zehdenick, Brandenburg, with 58.4 percent of the vote, becoming the party's first directly elected full-time mayor in the state. Separate regional polling has also shown the party on the cusp of absolute majorities in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has presented the trend as part of a broader political realignment, writing after earlier polling gains: "The political shift is inevitable - we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront!"

The pressure on the CDU is being intensified by deep dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the federal government. According to the Deutschlandtrend figures cited by Welt, only 16 percent of Germans are satisfied with Merz's performance, while 82 percent are dissatisfied. Overall, just 12 percent are satisfied or very satisfied with the federal government, compared with 87 percent who are less satisfied or not satisfied at all.

Economic pessimism is also weighing heavily on the political landscape. The economy is now the top issue for voters, ahead of refugees and migration. Only 13 percent describe Germany's economic situation as good, while 85 percent rate it as less good or bad. Just six percent expect to be better off in a year's time, while 38 percent expect things to worsen.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 02:00

S&P Denies SpaceX Fast Index Entry, Delaying $14BN In Passive Inflows By At Least A Year

Earlier today, in our forensic analysis of the SpaceX IPO, we said that according to BNP estimates, the company's inclusion into the S&P500 some 6 months after the offering would unlock $13.4 billion worth of inflows.

It turns out that that is not going to happen 6 months after the IPO. In fact, the earliest it may happen is 12 months after Friday's break for trading... and realistically well after that. 

That's because after the close today, S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would keep its existing eligibility requirements for main benchmarks like the S&P 500 Index, rejecting proposals that would have made it faster for mega-cap companies such as SpaceX to gain rapid entry into the benchmark after going public.

The index provider in a press release Thursday said it will not shorten the 12-month seasoning period for newly public companies it currently has or waive existing profitability and public-float requirements based on a company’s size, diverging from a broader industry shift embraced by rivals Nasdaq Inc. and FTSE Russell.

This is what S&P Dow Jones said in the press release:

"S&P DJI determined that exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization. The decision not to adopt the proposed exceptions preserves core index principles by maintaining consistent application of these key requirements. Although there may be trade-offs between strict adherence to these eligibility requirements and broad representativeness, the current methodology provides substantial market coverage and sector balance. As a result, the indices can continue to meet their stated objectives while preserving their role as representative and investable benchmarks for the U.S. equity market.

No changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF, for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, or S&P SmallCap 600 as a result of the S&P Dow Jones Indices consultation on the treatment of MegaCap companies. Accordingly, there will be no changes to existing methodology for this index family."

A more detailed breakdown of today's announcement: 

The requirements that will now remain in place are:

• No changes to S&P 500 eligibility rules for mega-cap companies.
• Mega-cap companies will still need to wait 12 months after their IPO before being considered for S&P 500 inclusion.
• S&P will not waive profitability requirements for mega-cap companies. The company must have positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter, and the sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters.
• S&P will not waive minimum public float requirements for mega-cap companies. At least 10% of a company's shares must be publicly tradable ("free float").

The S&P rejected proposals that would have:

• Reduced the IPO seasoning period from 12 months to 6 months
• Waived profitability requirements
• Waived minimum public float requirements

This means that the earliest SpaceX (as well as Anthropic and OpenAI after it) could be eligible to be added to the S&P 500 would now be June 2027.

The decision arrived as Wall Street has been grappling with a new reality: some companies are reaching unprecedented sizes before they ever enter public markets. The consultation, launched earlier this year, effectively asked whether index rules written for a different era should bend to accommodate companies that now arrive at a scale once reserved for mature blue chips in what has become known as the “fast entry” in industry parlance.

However, the push for quicker inclusion raised concerns among some investors who said rules around profitability, float and trading history exist precisely to prevent benchmarks from chasing hype. Furthermore, adding IPOs too quickly, they say, could expose passive funds to greater volatility and force them to buy shares before reliable market pricing is fully established.

Meanwhile, supporters say indexes should include massive companies as quickly as possible to reflect the market investors actually own, adding that these trillion-dollar firms can be economically significant long before they satisfy traditional index requirements.

“I am genuinely surprised,” said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “But S&P is the market leader and they can buck the trend.”

Shocker for me to be honest. I genuinely assumed they would make the changes because everyone else was. But S&P Dow Jones is not changing their rules to allow for Fast Adds of Megacap IPOs

(We all know what happens when you assume) pic.twitter.com/tzrURWksPJ

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 4, 2026

Unlike the S&P, Nasdaq changed its rules recently so SpaceX can join the Nasdaq 100 Index, a cohort of the largest non-financial companies listed on its exchange, in just 15 trading days, down from a three-month minimum. FTSE Russell adopted a similar approach, shortening the waiting time to five trading days. Indicatively, the Nasdaq addition would generate roughly half the passive inflows into SpaceX as an S&P includion would. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 00:27

The Modern “Red Calendar” And The Death Of Pride Month

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

In the aftermath of the Bolshevik Revolution and the takeover of Russia in 1917 (largely funded by international elites), the new communist regime sought to implement what I would call “propaganda saturation” – An avalanche of policies designed to secure the red army’s political power by manufacturing false consensus.

It should be noted that, even at the peak of the Bolshevik movement’s influence, the reds only represented around 23% of the total Russian population and were never a majority. However, they had substantial monetary backing from overseas (read Antony Sutton’s extensive study titled “Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution). Think of this as an “NGO funded rebellion”, the kind of thing we are witnessing in America today with militant woke activists.

It was this international backing that gave the communists the boost they needed to take physical control of the government. But what they really needed was control over the general populace. One tactic they relied on in the early stages of the takeover was the use of a “Red Calendar”. If this phrase is unfamiliar to you, you’re not alone. Most people have never heard of it.

The Red Calendar was a propaganda program designed to eliminate and replace existing Russian holidays and religious observances with new, secular holidays. Foremost on the agenda for the Bolsheviks was the erasure of Christianity, which they viewed as a dangerous competing ideological influence that could one day undermine the government’s authority.

If the population’s first loyalty is to God, then the government and the party will always be in second place. This was unacceptable.

The Red Calendar established a series of special Marxist holidays revolving around labor movements and the revolution. The soviets would later declare special month-long celebrations of certain ideals, such as the “month of solidarity” or the “month of friendship.”

In short, the Red Calendar was a deliberate ideological tool: Old holidays weren’t always formally “banned” everywhere at once, but they were systematically deprioritized, persecuted, or culturally overwritten in favor of new communist ones.

Not to be outdone, the National Socialists (Nazis) in Germany and Italy also engaged in projects similar to the Red Calendar. This is just one of the MANY parallels between the Soviet Marxists and the Third Reich (Hitler consistently admitted that the concept of National Socialism was rooted in Marxism).

The Nazis targeted Christian holidays, but instead of relying on atheist or secular propaganda models, they used pagan alternatives. Christmas, for example, was changed to “Yule” or the “Winter Solstice” and the role of Jesus was systematically repressed or removed.

For the leftists who claim that the Nazi’s were pro-Christianity, sorry, but you are wrong yet again. Hitler despised Christianity in his private life and viewed it as a religion “for weaklings”. He spoke often about how he wished that the German people had a more militant religious tradition, similar to Islam.

In his postwar memoir, Nazi architect Albert Speer recalled Hitler complaining about Germany’s “wrong religion”. In secret, the Third Reich sought to establish a pagan religion which they felt was more aggressive:

“You see, it’s been our misfortune to have the wrong religion. Why didn’t we have the religion of the Japanese, who regard sacrifice for the Fatherland as the highest good? The Mohammedan religion too would have been much more compatible to us than Christianity. Why did it have to be Christianity with its meekness and flabbiness?” – Adolph Hitler

The point is, socialists, whether nationalist or globalist, always seek to co-opt the existing culture of the countries they want to dominate. It’s one of the first things they do when they take over and the invasion is tailor made to subvert the specific culture being targeted. For the US, this looks less like a “workers revolution” and more like a coordinated insurgency of asylum patients against the traditional moral order.

The “gay rights” movement has long been at the forefront of this sabotage project, supported from behind the curtain by NGO’s like the Ford Foundation and communist groups like the Mattachine Society in the 1950s under Harry Hay.  Once again, Joseph McCarthy was right.

Their propaganda tactics are relatively unknown to the average American because they simply are not mentioned in public schooling or college academia. But, in researching the history of Red Calendar methods you might find yourself recognizing a familiar pattern.

Well, it’s the first week of June once again and in recent years, for the vast majority of Americans, the month of June has brought with it a sense of overwhelming exhaustion. A WHOLE MONTH officially recognized by the government as a celebration of “LGBT Pride”.  And yes, Pride Month is in every way an attempt by the far-left to bring back the communist Red Calendar.

Pride Month was first recognized by the federal government in 1999 under Bill Clinton (Mr. Lolita Express). It was expanded on by Barack Obama in 2009 to include transsexuals and Joe Biden flooded Pride programs with federal cash through USAID in 2021. He even went so far as to hold a pride celebration on the White House lawn which included guys with tits running around topless.

I can recall the national attitude towards gay people in 1999 was extremely accommodating. We were all indifferent and no one cared if someone was gay as long as they kept it away from children. Whatever people did privately was their business.

Zoomers like to pretend as if their mediocre activist movements are “changing the world” and bringing equality to minority groups, but Gen X already finished that job decades ago. In fact, one of the most popular shows on TV in 2003 was called “Queer Eye For The Straight Guy”, which featured a team of flaming gay dudes prancing around and taking straight guys on shopping sprees so that they would look less unkempt (and less masculine).

This was not an era of discrimination. Zoomer activism doesn’t solve problems, it creates problems.

The opposition started when the gay community, or whatever you want to call it, became the “LGBT” community. The opposition started when they became a political cult. Being gay suddenly meant joining a militant wing of the wider woke invasion into our social and governmental institutions. This is when “Pride” mutated into a monstrous blob; spreading beyond localized gatherings in liberal cities and turning into a national astroturf movement which everyone was forced to endure every summer.

ESG funding rained down on LGBT organizations through corporations and NGOs from 2015 onward. Not long after, Pride was everywhere. In our movies, in our TV shows, in our video games, in our comic books, in our sports, in our commercials, it was even on our food as companies slapped gay flags and activist mantras like “Love Is Love” on everything from candies to iced tea.

This was clearly a strategic effort hijack the cultural driver’s seat in the US. But the end, the inevitable end, was set in motion when Pride was injected into the public school system by far-left teachers unions. The agenda to indoctrinate children with transgender ideology and gay sexuality sealed the fate of “Pride Month.”

When the activists went after people’s kids, that’s when the greater majority of Americans started to realize that maybe, just maybe, the conservative “conspiracy theorists” of the early 2000s might have been right about a few things. Maybe, LGBT is not about equal rights? Maybe it’s about predatory politics, social control and the normalization of degeneracy?

Today, pride has imploded. Corporate sponsors have dried up along with ESG funding. The shutdown of USAID by the Trump Administration was integral to the death of LGBT Red Calendar celebrations because these groups relied heavily on government money to make organized events possible. As the money disappears, the real LGBT movement is barely noticeable. And, that’s the way it should be.

Anyone who makes their sexual orientation the very center of their identity is mentally ill, and no functional society should promote or celebrate mental illness. An even greater concern, though, is the exploitation of gay “victimhood” as a means to push socialism/communism/globalism.

It’s no coincidence that LGBT activism comes as a package deal with every globalist scam imaginable. To be “gay” these days means you are expected to applaud the deconstruction of the west, the death of free markets, the rise of climate change laws, the normalization of veganism, the end of freedom of speech (for everyone except communists), the systematic destruction of religion, etc.

There are gay people out their who don’t subscribe to any of these things, but the majority of them do, in many cases because they feel they are required to in order to fit in with the movement. It’s not enough to be gay, they have to be revolutionaries.

And this is why public support for gay issues is in decline in the US. This is why Pride Month was barely a blip on the gaydar in 2025 and it’s even less visible in 2026. By whoring out their community to the machinations of communists and globalists, gays really screwed themselves. Now, far less people are trusting.

Pride Month is, by itself, a kind of egomaniacal display of performative narcissism. That is to say, pride is not something to be proud of. Accomplishment is something to be proud of…but being gay is not an accomplishment. Many Americans now see Pride Month as nothing more than an act of self worship.

The pendulum is swinging back hard and I think the “persecution” the LGBT movement pretended to suffer from ten years ago might very will hit them hard in real life in the next few years. It was probably not the best idea to reanimate the communist Red Calendar or declare gays as idols to be worshiped for their “virtue”. The backlash is deserved.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 23:25

Beijing Bans Four New Zealand MPs For "Crossing Red Line" With Taiwan Visit

In a first, China has banned four New Zealand Members of Parliament for a year over their visit to Taiwan, New Zealand's foreign ministry says. The MPs learned of the ban - which the Chinese Embassy said could be reduced or waived with an apology - when they returned from the trip in May, local media reported on Thursday.

On Thursday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said: “Recently, certain New Zealand members of parliament, disregarding China’s serious concerns and firm opposition, wilfully paid a visit to China’s Taiwan region, violating the one-China principle and interfering in China’s internal affairs.

“In accordance with relevant laws of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese side has decided to adopt measures against the individuals concerned, including denial of entry into China.”

This was the first time China has imposed travel bans on New Zealand MPs for visiting Taiwan - a move that "surprised" foreign minister Winston Peters, a ministry spokesperson said in a statement to the BBC. China claims the self-governed island of Taiwan as its territory, and has tried to restrict the island's foreign engagements.

"New Zealand MPs have visited Taiwan for decades and such visits are not inconsistent with New Zealand's One China policy," the spokesperson said, quoted by the BBC.

In a statement on Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in New Zealand said the ban was a result of the MPs "disregarding China's serious concerns" and insisting on visiting Taiwan as parliamentarians. The visit had sent "wrong signals" to Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party and "Taiwan independence' forces", the statement said, adding that it constituted "interference in China's internal affairs".

The visit in May comprised lawmakers from the ruling coalition - Maureen Pugh, David Wilson and Laura McClure - as well as Duncan Webb from the opposition Labour Party.

Photos from the visit by the New Zealand MPs were posted on social media by Taiwan's foreign minister Lin Chia-lung

McClure, from the ACT party, said the travel ban was "a type of foreign interference" and that she was "not going to apologize for visiting Taiwan", the New Zealand Herald reported. She told Radio New Zealand that she was "quite surprised and shocked" by the ban as similar visits had happened for years previously. She added that New Zealand MPs "have the right to travel freely around the globe".

"That is part of living in a free democracy," she said.

New Zealand foreign minister Peters has instructed foreign ministry officials in Beijing and Wellington to discuss the matter with Chinese authorities to "better understand" the "departure from past practice", the spokesperson said.

New Zealand established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1972 and has since maintained a One China policy - the diplomatic acknowledgement of China's position that there is only one Chinese government. New Zealand has formal ties only with Beijing, and not with Taipei. 

But like many countries, New Zealand has also maintained regular exchanges with Taiwan.

Last year, a group of New Zealand MPs met Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te during a trip to Taiwan. The Chinese embassy in New Zealand criticised the trip, describing the MPs as "colluding with 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces".

Beijing also previously condemned a group of New Zealand lawmakers for attending a reception hosted by Taiwan's de facto embassy in Wellington last October. 

Taiwan has previously accused China of trying to intervene in its diplomatic ties with other countries. Last month, Lai visited Eswatini - Taiwan's only diplomatic ally in Africa - days after his government said a trip had been cancelled due to China pressuring African countries to bar him from flying over their territories.

That Eswatini visit was later brought up by Taiwan's foreign minister Lin Chia-lung in a post about the New Zealand delegation's visit.

"President Lai's recent visit to Eswatini has once again made the world feel the challenges facing Taiwan's diplomacy," he wrote on Facebook.

Lin further noted that the visit by the New Zealand MPs "not only showed the support of the New Zealand Parliament for Taiwan, but also made the friendship between Taiwan and New Zealand stronger".

China has sanctioned US lawmakers in the past for visiting Taiwan, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022. The following year, China sanctioned US Representative Michael McCaul, claiming that his visit to Taiwan sent a "serious wrong signal to Taiwan independence separatist forces".

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 23:00

Satellite Images Expose China’s Massive New 120-Meter Sail-Free Mystery Submarine

Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering,

China has quietly launched another advanced submarine, signaling the rapid expansion of a naval force that already outpaces Western production rates.

ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine and satellite imagery of China's sailless submarine. Wikimedia Commons and @Mack8miltech on X

Fresh satellite imagery shows a large new submarine at Shanghai's Jiangnan Shipyard. The vessel features an unusual "sailless" profile and a highly streamlined hull. Analysts say the design could reflect China's push toward faster, quieter, and harder-to-detect underwater platforms.

The launch comes as the U.S. and its allies struggle to increase submarine output. China, meanwhile, has launched roughly 15 to 20 submarines during the past five years. Several belong to entirely new classes.

Streamlined Underwater Design

The newly spotted submarine measures around 120 meters long. Its beam appears narrower than other recent Chinese attack submarines, while satellite imagery also shows X-shaped stern control surfaces and what may be a shrouded propulsion system.

Defense analysts believe the submarine could use a pumpjet propulsor. That setup reduces underwater noise at higher speeds compared to traditional propellers. The vessel's most striking feature, however, remains the absence of a traditional sail.

Conventional submarines rely on sails to house periscopes, communication masts, and snorkel systems. Removing that structure cuts drag and improves hydrodynamic efficiency. A cleaner hull shape can improve submerged speed and maneuverability while also reducing acoustic signatures, making the submarine harder to track.

China previously tested similar concepts. About eight years ago, the same shipyard launched a smaller experimental submarine with a reduced sail design. More recently, Chinese shipbuilders revealed unmanned underwater vehicle concepts with similar hull forms.

Questions Over Propulsion

The submarine's propulsion system remains unclear, though analysts believe a standard nuclear reactor remains the most likely option due to the vessel's size.

Another possibility involves China's emerging "nuclear-AIP" technology. That concept combines a low-power nuclear reactor with air-independent propulsion principles. Such systems promise longer endurance without the complexity of full-sized nuclear attack submarines.

China already launched one submarine using that concept. The Type-041 Zhou-class submarine appeared at Wuhan's Wuchang Shipyard in 2024. Experts, however, consider a traditional nuclear-powered attack submarine more likely for this latest design.

At nearly 400 feet long, the submarine appears too narrow to serve as a ballistic missile submarine. China's newest JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles require significantly larger launch compartments.

Expanding Production Capacity

The emergence of the new submarine also raises questions about China's industrial strategy. Around the same time, another submarine reportedly launched from Huludao Shipyard, China's primary nuclear submarine construction facility. Analysts suspect both submarines could belong to the same new class.

If confirmed, that would mark a major shift in Chinese naval manufacturing. Western shipyards often struggle to build more than one nuclear submarine at a time. China may now operate parallel production lines for advanced submarine programs.

Beijing has released no official information about the submarine. Chinese authorities rarely announce first-in-class submarine launches, especially for sensitive naval projects. That secrecy leaves outside analysts relying on satellite imagery and defense assessments to piece together the submarine's mission and capabilities.

Even with limited information, the message appears clear. China continues to accelerate submarine development while experimenting with increasingly unconventional underwater designs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 22:35

Trump Decries Communism, Says Its 'Breathtaking Popularity' Turns To 'Death, Destruction, Squalor'

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on June 3, President Donald Trump decried communism, saying that the ideology leads to “death, destruction, and squalor.”

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on June 3, President Donald Trump decried communism, saying that the ideology leads to “death, destruction, and squalor.”

Trump said that the “free houses,” “free food,” and “free everything” offered by communist ideas “eventually ...… pic.twitter.com/2h7uB6B5Zg

— The Epoch Times (@EpochTimes) June 4, 2026

Trump said that the “free houses,” “free food,” and “free everything” offered by communist ideas “eventually ... ends, and it leads to death, destruction, and squalor—100 percent of the time.”

Trump was responding to a question from NTD, a sister outlet of The Epoch Times, related to a post he made on Truth Social the same day discussing communist ideology.

“Communists always do well with the voters, or as they would say, the people in the early years, but in the end, the country, state, or city goes to hell. Great violence proceeds at levels never seen before, and the entity dissolves into poverty, squalor, and crime,” Trump wrote in that post.

“Remember, breathtaking ‘popularity’ first, and then guaranteed death and destruction.”

The comments came as the eastern hemisphere entered June 4—the anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s brutal massacre of thousands of peaceful pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989.

Communism is an ideology and system that has directly caused the deaths of an estimated 100 million people worldwide, although some estimates indicate as many as 200 million. Today, the five communist regimes that still exist—in China, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, and Laos—are among the world’s worst violators of human rights.

The president told reporters that his Truth Social post was inspired by his concerns about policies and candidates in places like New York and California.

The president specifically referenced New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who openly ran his 2025 campaign as a self-described democratic socialist. Mamdani has drawn national reactions since his surprise victory over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Democratic socialism describes an economic system under which the government provides certain key services, such as education and healthcare, through the use of a progressive taxation system. Critics have warned that such ideas work while the populace is wealthy but eventually fail, and lead to communist systems.

Before his election, Trump had been openly critical of Mamdani. The two said they had a strong working relationship since they first met in person in November 2025.

Trump has expressed personal admiration for Mamdani while maintaining his opposition to the New York Democrat’s politics—a tone he took again in his remarks on Wednesday.

“I watched [Mamdani in] New York, and you know, I liked him very much,” Trump said, adding a reference to Mamdani’s November visit and a second visit in February this year.

“He stood right here, and he’s been in the office a couple of times.”

Trump then said his ideological disagreements with Mamdani remain intact.

“He’s a smart guy, I don’t understand why he thinks it’s okay for all these companies that pay hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes a year to leave,” Trump said.

“You’re not going to have any tax base, and you’re going to end up in hunger and squalor and death and destruction.”

Trump was referencing warnings from chambers of business and other groups that the major companies and ultra-wealthy could begin to leave New York City as Mamdani moves to institute higher taxes on top earners in the city.

Trump said that while it’s harder to make the case for free enterprise, that system is the foundation of the United States’ success and global leadership.

“Free enterprise is tougher to sell, but that’s what’s made our country great, and that’s why it’s great again now,” the president said from the Oval Office.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 21:45

Feds Raid Newport Mansion, Arrest Businessman Accused Of Routing U.S. Technology To Iran

Federal authorities arrested 63 year old Newport Coast technology executive Jamshid Ghomi during an early-morning operation at his luxury Orange County residence on Wednesday, according to the NY Post.

He faces federal charges related to alleged violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

Investigators claim Ghomi orchestrated a long-running scheme to obtain American-made networking and computer equipment and funnel it to customers in Iran, including organizations tied to the country's military and nuclear sectors. According to prosecutors, the operation generated millions of dollars and relied on overseas intermediaries and shell companies to conceal the equipment's final destination.

Photo: CA Post/NY Post

The NY Post writes that authorities allege that, over many years, Ghomi acquired restricted technology from U.S. suppliers and routed shipments through third countries before they reached Iran. The government says the equipment was ultimately delivered to numerous Iranian businesses and state-affiliated entities, some of which were already subject to U.S. sanctions.

Agents executed a search warrant at Ghomi's residence before taking him into custody. Federal officials are also examining possible financial crimes, including money laundering and tax-related offenses. Court filings allege that his business brought in substantial revenue while relatively little income was reported to tax authorities.

Photo: DOJ

U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said the case reflects the government's effort to enforce sanctions laws and pursue both criminal penalties and the forfeiture of assets connected to the alleged conduct.

He concluded: “Our nation’s laws prohibiting doing business with one of the world’s largest state sponsors of terrorism must be enforced and obeyed.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 21:20

Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Glyphosate In Food

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has initiated an investigation into glyphosate contamination in food, with major manufacturers such as PepsiCo and Bayer being subjected to the probe.

Workers spray for insects and weeds at a fruit farm in Mesa, Calif., on March 27, 2020. Brent Stirton/Getty Images

Glyphosate is a commonly used herbicide applied to genetically engineered crops and is the main ingredient in Roundup weed killer, Paxton's office said in a June 2 statement. In 2015, the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer classified glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans." The organization also concluded that the herbicide showed "strong" evidence for genotoxicity, which refers to the ability to damage a cell's genetic information.

"Since then, extensive human and animal research has shown that glyphosate contributes to endocrine disruption, infertility, kidney disease, and autoimmune diseases, in addition to its cancer-causing properties," the attorney general's statement read.

"More than 250 million pounds of glyphosate are sprayed in the United States each year. Research has found that over 70 percent of American adults have detectable traces of glyphosate in their bodies compared to a mere 12 percent in 1993. Scientists attribute much of this dramatic increase to the widespread use of glyphosate as a desiccant."

Desiccation is the process of applying herbicides to crops prior to harvest to ensure they uniformly dry down, a practice responsible for more than 90 percent of glyphosate found in food.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) deems glyphosate as an effective way to manage noxious and invasive weeds, the agency said in a May 5 update.

In agriculture, glyphosate is used in a wide range of crops, including corn, soybean, leafy vegetables, legumes, cereal grains, citrus, herbs and spices, nuts, oilseed crops, and sugarcane. The herbicide is also used for the conservation of pastures, forests, turf grass, rangeland, aquatic areas, parks, wildlife management areas, and paved areas.

The EPA said there are "no risks of concern to human health from current uses of glyphosate" and that there is "no indication that children are more sensitive to glyphosate."

However, Paxton's office said in its recent statement that children are "particularly vulnerable to glyphosate's harms" due to the widespread use of oats in cereals, cookies, and breakfast bars. While the EPA bans the use of glyphosate as a desiccant on oats in the United States, major companies import oats from nations where desiccation is allowed.

Children are exposed to food products that are "some of the most glyphosate-contaminated" food items sold in the United States, including those that are marketed as "healthy."

Paxton's office has sent Civil Investigative Demands to major pesticide and food manufacturers, such as Bayer and PepsiCo. A Civil Investigative Demand is an administrative subpoena allowing government agencies to request private entities to submit significant information without having to first go through court procedures.

"If any corporation is using regulatory loopholes to poison our kids with glyphosate, we will find out and we will secure justice," Paxton said.

"My office is also investigating whether major food companies are complying with Texas law and whether consumers, especially parents, have been misled about the health claims of common food products marketed to their families. No corporation is above the law, and no illegal action will go unpunished."

The Epoch Times reached out to Bayer and PepsiCo for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Glyphosate Necessity In Farms

A major controversy erupted in February when President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring America's supply of glyphosate a critical component of national and food security.

"Lack of access to glyphosate-based herbicides would critically jeopardize agricultural productivity, adding pressure to the domestic food system, and may result in a transition of cropland to other uses due to low productivity," the executive order said.

"Glyphosate-based herbicides are a cornerstone of this Nation's agricultural productivity and rural economy."

The herbicide has faced criticism from the Make America Healthy Again movement, and thousands of lawsuits have been filed across the United States claiming that exposure to glyphosate is linked to several types of cancer.

Last month, a group of lawmakers introduced the No Immunity for Glyphosate Act, which seeks to ensure that glyphosate manufacturers can be held liable under state and federal law if it is proven that the herbicide causes cancer, according to an April 29 statement from the office of Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).

The bill also seeks to ban the use of federal funds to enforce Trump's glyphosate order.

"Exposure to glyphosate can cause cancer. The Supreme Court cannot and should not allow these verdicts to be overturned," Heinrich said.

"My constituents' health and safety comes first. And I will not stand by while President Trump gives immunity to those who put my constituents' health and safety at risk."

In February, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a social media post that pesticides and herbicides were toxic.

However, if the use of these chemicals were prohibited, "crop yields would fall, food prices would surge, and America would experience a massive loss of farms," Kennedy said, while describing Trump's glyphosate order as aiming to protect the country's food supply.

Moreover, the Trump administration is looking at shifting from the current agricultural system without harming food supply, such as by transitioning to regenerative agriculture, Kennedy said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 20:05

The Media Wants To Know Why Men Are Walking Away From Liberal Society?

Recent surveys paint what might seem like an apocalyptic picture:  In the US, around 45% of men ages 18-25 do not approach women anymore to engage in dating or relationships.  Over 42% of all men have no interest in seeking out women for relationships or casual dates.  Around 30% of men over 40 years old have never been married and are not necessarily seeking marriage.  

In light of ongoing concerns about population decline around the world, the first thing most people might say is that men need to "step up" and fulfill their role in order to save the human species from a "Children Of Men" movie scenario.  However, this suggests that it's men's fault and that checking out of the current system is a bad thing.  It's a narrow minded view.  

To be clear, the narrative of the "male loneliness epidemic" is a propaganda fantasy designed to shame men into returning to the liberal fold.  The truth is, men are not lonely, they are deliberately refusing to participate in order to make a point.  What we are witnessing is perhaps the most substantial mass boycott of liberal ideology in history as men go more conservative.  It's a boycott the establishment media does not want to acknowledge. 

In a recent expose by The Guardian, the outlet dares to ask the forbidden question - Is the "Me Too" movement the reason men are opting out of relationships and liberal society?  Sadly, they barely delve into the truth of the matter and instead regurgitate the old standby excuses:  Men are afraid of women because of lack of emotional intelligence.  Men are having trouble navigating the new world of fluid gender roles and women's independence.  Men are being lured into "toxic masculinity" by conservative movements, etc. 

Not surprisingly, the media rarely engages with straight men who study these changes from the male perspective.   If they did, they might get a better insight into what men today want want from life, from their careers or from relationships.  They talk often in dismay about the rush of young men into conservative ideals, but they never ask those men what it is about conservatism that attracts them. 

Why?  Because they don't want to hear the answer.  They don't care what men have to say.  So instead, they gather up a gaggle of female psychologists, jilted women and woke beta male activists and ask them "What is going on with men these days?" 

The idea of self improvement and striving for success has become the rallying cry for many men lost in the sea of the post "Me Too" world.  It makes perfect sense.  After a decade of feminist militancy and narratives painting men as walking time bombs on the verge of exploding into a deadly rage, men are no longer asking for validation from society or from women. 

Instead, they have set their own goals and measure their achievements according to their own peace of mind.  The power of the woke movement and feminists is in their ability to insert themselves into the role of judge and jury.  They do this by claiming constant victimhood, which they say earns them access to the halls of power and influence.  When the media talks about masculinity from an anthropological standpoint, they talk to the self-appointed woke experts (mostly women).    

When they do ask men, it's usually from a liberal standpoint.  When they ask conservative men, they ignore the answers and attack the honest responses.   Last week a New York Times podcast set out to explore what they call the American Masculinity Crisis; not to understand why men and masculinity have been so demonized, but to complain about men returning to masculinity despite the political left's best efforts to destroy it.  

"I think that we are in an abysmal state.  I think the reality is that we’ve always had patriarchy at the intersection of capitalism and white supremacy, and how those things feast on one another and lift one another. But I think right now, more times than not, the role models that these young boys and young men have are not only divisive and toxic but insidious and heinous, disgusting. Truly, I mean, the president of the United States is an alleged rapist. What does that mean? You know, the popular thing that boys are watching is largely M.M.A., right? So I think we’re in a horrible place..."

The idea of "toxic masculinity" is a woke feminist fallacy; a creation meant to shame men for their natural behaviors, their normal biological roles and the inherent ways they deal with the world.  The important thing to remember is that feminism has not been about equality for decades.  Women have had social equality and legal superiority over men in the west for some time now. 

Rather, feminism is about keeping men in line and under control to prevent any rebellion against the liberal epoch.  After all, women have no inherent power.  They gain power by convincing men to give their power away through government.  By convincing men to behave in the name of modern civility.  From the New York Times:

"I think, when we talk about masculinity, we have to talk about the patriarchy. And I think we see this as this system which harms everyone, including men..."

"I think if we can see ourselves as part of a system of patriarchy that harms all of us, and we are allies in this fight rather than men versus women, men oppressing women, then I think we can have a more productive conversation..."

In other words, masculinity and patriarchy is the left-wing version of "original sin"; a great crime against humanity that can only be defeated when men and women to come together...and submit to feminism.  Which means, men have to hand over all their power as the source of this great evil.  Men have to accept proper "management" to avoid falling into their darker ways.  If only these men would prostrate themselves before the benevolent woke gods and beg for forgiveness, then the world would be a much better place.

But why would they?  The idea that they get something in return is a proven lie.  They get no redemption, no peace.  Why not simply step on the neck of feminism, destroy it and take control?  It would be easy.  The only thing stopping this from happening is the hope most men have for a logical and reasonable discourse - The hope of honest reconciliation.  As long as feminism exists, however, this is never going to happen.

When the left-wing media opines on the lost generation of men, what they're really doing is pretending to have empathy while scrambling to circumvent a full blown male rebellion against the liberal order. 

The "Me Too" movement was presented as a reckoning over abuse against women in professional spaces, but it ultimately became a power grab in which liberal women leveraged fake outrage to elevate the idea of "guilty until proven innocent."  It weaponized mob justice against men as a way to steal jobs women didn't earn or deserve, and steal political power they had no moral capacity to handle. 

It's no mistake that the Me Too motto was "Believe all women."  That's a radioactive level of power.  

The real reckoning is going to be in the aftermath of Me Too.  There is a quiet but simmering movement of young men who are about to reassert their dominance in the society that cast them as monsters.  What progressives and feminists still don't realize is that their actions have set an unstoppable freight train in motion.  By alienating men in the pursuit of political gain, they have created a juggernaut with little empathy for self proclaimed "victims".

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 19:40

DOJ Opens Investigation Into Suspected Race-Based Practices At Arizona State University

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division has launched a Title VI investigation into diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices at Arizona State University (ASU), one of the country's largest public universities.

View of the campus of Arizona State University, a public research university located in Phoenix, Arizona. Shutterstock

Wednesday's announcement comes after recent viral videos that appear to show university personnel participating in or concealing the handling of distinguishing students by race, color, or national origin. Federal officials noted the videos raised the prospect that ASU may have violated civil rights protections while benefiting from considerable taxpayer support.

"No student should be denied access to opportunities or resources because of race, color, or national origin," Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon of the Justice Department's (DOJ's) Civil Rights Division said. "The United States is committed to keeping universities free of unlawful discrimination - especially when they try to hide illegal conduct to avoid oversight and compliance."

Federal law does not allow discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin at institutions that receive federal funding. ASU has 194,000 students enrolled across its campuses as of the 2024-2025 school year and receives hundreds of millions of dollars in federal grants and aid annually, public records from the U.S. Department of Education show.

The Civil Rights Division's investigation will determine whether ASU's DEI-related policies result in illegal discrimination in areas including admissions, recruitment, scholarships, tutoring, and educational support services. Officials underscored that the investigation is underway.

This action comes amid a broader national effort to examine university practices following changes to federal policy and public outcry over race-conscious programs. Many colleges and universities changed or repackaged DEI initiatives in the wake of executive actions and legal challenges.

The Department of Education indicates that Arizona's major universities, including ASU, have contended with state-level restrictions on certain diversity initiatives while ensuring federal compliance. Universities nationwide have quietly adjusted DEI programs as a result of potential funding cuts and investigations.

The viral videos leading to the DOJ announcement recorded interactions in which university staff deliberated continuing parts of DEI programming under alternative names such as "inclusive excellence."

Accuracy in Media and other watchdogs have noted similar efforts at public universities.

Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 mandates equal opportunity without regard to protected characteristics. Past DOJ inquiries into higher education have looked at legacy admissions, athletic recruiting, and targeted scholarships. This investigation joins a growing list of reviews examining programs thought to circumvent race-neutral standards.

Places of higher learning, from Ivy League schools to state flagships, have faced pressure to get rid of race-based preferences after Supreme Court rulings and administrative changes.

ASU officials have not formally responded to the allegations. Public university records detail numerous outreach programs targeting underrepresented groups.

Federal databases show that ASU receives considerable taxpayer funds, including research grants, Pell Grants, and other aid that require nondiscriminatory practices.

The federal government has also investigated medical school admissions and PhD recruitment initiatives at other public universities that allegedly applied different standards based on race.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 19:15

Anthropic's Marketing FUD Playbook Returns With Call To Pause AI Frontier Development

Anthropic has elevated fear-based marketing to an art form. The company routinely warns the public, lawmakers, and corporate America about looming AI doom scenarios - then conveniently positions itself, its products, safety frameworks, and policy prescriptions as humanity’s best defense.

This strategy is hardly new. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) works because we're wired to be risk-averse. Nothing grabs attention faster than a well-crafted existential threat.

In its latest iteration, Anthropic’s message is that AI models are advancing so rapidly they risk outrunning society’s ability to control them. The solution? The very guardrails, verification systems, and safety architecture that Anthropic is helpfully developing.

“We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology,” the company stated in a new post released Thursday.

The Anthropic Institute will conduct research—in collaboration with many others—and take actions to help build the systems that a credible slowdown or pause would require. These systems would enable frontier AI developers to verify that others globally have actually stopped or slowed, and that a bad actor could not use the auspices of a coordinated slowdown to jump ahead in secret. If such systems existed, we expect that we would slow down or temporarily pause, if other developers at or near the frontier also did so in a verifiable manner.

A meaningful slowdown or pause would require multiple well-resourced labs at or near the frontier, in multiple countries, agreeing to stop under the same conditions. It would also require that each can verify that the others have actually stopped. Due to the unique characteristics of AI systems, the detectability (a lower standard than verifiability) element of this arms control problem is much more challenging than with other technologies. Training runs are far easier to conceal than missile silos, their inputs are general-purpose, and the incentive to defect quietly is enormous. A credible pause also has to specify what triggers it, what lifts it, and who adjudicates.

None of this is necessarily impossible in principle—the world has built verification regimes for other complex technologies (e.g., the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty)—but those regimes took decades to build both the infrastructure and the trust. We don't have that long. A unilateral pause by one lab is achievable immediately, but accomplishes much less: it would change who the front-runner is, but it would not create the wider deliberative process that is currently missing.

In the coming months, we will organize conversations where policymakers, researchers, civil society, and other AI companies can help answer some of the questions this piece raises, especially around full recursive self-improvement and how to create better options for coordination and deliberation. We'll publish what comes out of it. The window to investigate these questions together is here, and people outside AI companies should be involved in this deliberation.

This follows a familiar playbook. With the earlier release of Mythos, Anthropic framed the model as so powerful it could autonomously discover thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities - including decades-old bugs missed by prior testing - chain exploits, and execute complex multi-stage attacks. They called it a “moment of danger” for cybersecurity with potentially severe consequences for economies and national security.

Access was initially restricted to a small group of trusted parties. As doomer headlines blanketed mainstream media, the fear cycle ran its course. Then, predictably, access was gradually expanded.

Former AI czar David Sacks captured Anthropic’s approach perfectly on a recent episode of the All-In Podcast:

All of this FUD marketing arrives as Anthropic races OpenAI to reach the public markets first, following SpaceX’s anticipated IPO next week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 18:50

Weingarten Blames Screens, Not Herself, For Falling Test Scores

Authored by Aaron Withe and Tina Snider via RealClearPolitics,

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten is sounding the alarm about the decade-long decline in student test scores, pointing to screens and devices as a culprit. She's calling it a "call to action."

She left out the part about how she helped cause the problem in the first place.

For two years during the COVID pandemic, Weingarten and the AFT fought aggressively to keep schools closed. In July 2020, as the Trump administration urged schools to reopen, Weingarten called the push "reckless," "callous," and "cruel," and threatened the possibility of safety strikes.

Internal emails later released by a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee showed the AFT had access to draft guidance from the federal Centers for Disease Control before it was made public, as well as proposed specific language that could trigger renewed closures.

Research published afterward confirmed what was already evident: Districts with stronger teachers unions were significantly less likely to reopen for in-person instruction, even after controlling for local COVID conditions.

So kids stayed home. They got on computer screens and stayed there for two years, cut off from teachers, friends, and anything resembling a normal childhood.

The consequences were not abstract. The National Assessment of Educational Progress recorded the largest declines in math and reading scores in its history. Reading results dropped to levels not seen since the early 1990s.

Researchers documented surging rates of anxiety, depression, and social developmental delays among children who spent critical years in isolation. The damage, experts say, will take a generation to undo.

In her book published last fall, Weingarten wrote that she "...led the AFT in developing a concrete plan to reopen schools as quickly and safely as possible." That's a remarkable claim given the documented record of what her union actually did.

Weingarten told Congress in 2023 there were "... things we really didn't get right," including the impact of prolonged closures. That acknowledgment was notable, but what followed it wasn't accountability. It was a pivot.

The same union that lobbied to keep students off school grounds is now positioning itself as a champion of children's well-being, pointing an accusing finger at Silicon Valley while the learning-loss data keeps compounding.

The financial record makes that positioning even harder to stomach. A recent analysis of National Education Association and AFT federal disclosures by the Network Contagion Research Institute and the Gevura Fund - of which Tina Snider is president - found America's two largest teachers unions spend roughly $4 on political activities for every dollar spent on direct member representation.

The NEA alone reported more than $51.7 million in political spending in its most recent filing, plus another $123 million in contributions and grants, compared to less than $46 million on the collective bargaining its members thought they were paying for.

Meanwhile, teacher pay in real terms has barely moved in 50 years. The gap between what teachers earn and what comparably educated professionals earn hit a record 26.9% in 2024.

Small wonder NEA membership has fallen by nearly 400,000 since its peak, even as dues have increased every single year.

The union is shrinking, teachers are falling further behind their peers economically, and the students those teachers serve are still recovering from two years of lost learning.

That's the actual record, and it's a shameful one.

The test scores didn't fall because of TikTok. They fell because millions of kids spent two years at home on screens, isolated from the teachers and classrooms Weingarten claims to champion.

She knows who fought to keep them there. So do the parents still watching their kids catch up.

Aaron Withe is the Chief Executive Officer of the Freedom Foundation.

Tina Snider is president of Gevura Fund.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 18:25

Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4

Beer sales across the U.S. over Memorial Day weekend were troublingly soft, according to a new Goldman report, which attributed the weakness primarily to a "challenging macro backdrop" and unusually cold weather across parts of the Lower 48 states.

The Gulf-related fuel price shock has kept the national average for 87-octane gasoline above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold for more than 66 days, or roughly two months. Consumers are already pulling back on purchases at gas stations and convenience stores, with the latest evidence showing a sharp slowdown in energy drink sales growth amid rising fuel prices.

The next victim of the fuel price shock, amid a dismal consumer backdrop of sliding personal savings and a fading tax-refund sugar high, appears to be beer - generally considered a consumer staple product. The latest high-frequency data cited by Bonnie Herzog shows beer trends over the Memorial Day weekend were troubling.

"As expected, the challenging macro environment appears to be the largest drag on beer trends - as consumers have less disposable income and are prioritizing more non-discretionary purchases - while unfavorable weather in several parts of the country further pressured consumption patterns with Memorial Day weekend being the wettest and one of the coldest holiday weekends in the past 5 years," Herzog wrote in the note.

Herzog's "Bev Bytes" Beer Distributor Survey covers feedback from roughly 45 beer distributors, representing about 145,000 retail outlets or 23% of U.S. alcohol-selling locations, providing clients with a solid real-time snapshot of beer demand.

That snapshot showed demand remained uneven, with Constellation Brands standing out as a winner, while Heineken, Boston Beer, and Molson Coors lagged behind.

About half of the respondents in the survey said beer sales slowed in April and May compared with the first quarter, citing a softening in consumer spending, unfavorable weather, and category switching to ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages sold pre-mixed in cans or bottles, and/or THC products.

Most notable takeaways from the survey:

1. Nearly half of all distributors indicated that beer category sales decelerated in April/May vs Q1 - citing a pressured consumer backdrop, unfavorable weather, some category switching (e.g., RTDs & THC), a secular shift away from alcohol, and weak marketing;

2. Consumers are facing increased pressure as a result of the challenging macro/operating backdrop - with notable pressure on the Hispanic consumer;

3. Recent volume trends for STZ in May have been encouraging following a relatively weaker Cinco De Mayo;

4. Recent scanner trends appear to be soft for Modelo Especial - though distributors still see further upside and expect the brand to grow this year;

5. Miller Lite & Coors Light remain pressured with further deceleration in April/May vs Q1;

6. Distributors are cautious on Corona but are mostly positive on Sunbrew;

7. Distributors are split if TAP will be able to successfully grow Monaco Cocktails;

8. Most distributors are upbeat about Sun Cruiser - with most expecting trends to accelerate in 2H vs 1H this year, SAM's brand portfolio elsewhere including Twisted & Truly remain pressured; and

9. SAM's recent innovation LYTT is seeing mixed traction - most view this as an interesting concept, but unsure how it would be received by consumers and durability of growth in context of its novelty packaging.

Herzog pointed out that "tempered beer category growth trends over the Memorial Day holiday weekend and lackluster category growth outlook largely come as no surprise, especially considering the challenging macro environment - we take a selective approach to identifying relative winners within the space that we believe are best positioned to outperform."

Beer Stock Coverage:

• STZ - Our 12-month price target of $180 is based on an equal-weighted EV/EBITDA of 10.8x (vs 10.9x prior) and P/E of 13.4x (unchanged), both of which are based on our Q5-Q8 estimates. We slightly lower P/E multiple to reflect macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures affecting the consumer. Risks to our estimates and price target include: Modelo/Corona Extra lose traction with consumers; Corona Light does not stabilize/return to growth; greater than expected spike in input cost inflation or lower productivity savings; STZ fails to build its new brewery in Southeastern Mexico.

• TAP - Our 12-month price target of $50 is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x (weighted 42.5%), P/E of 8.0x (wtd 42.5%), & M&A value based on EV/EBITDA of 9.4x (wtd 15%) all based on our updated Q5-Q8 estimates. Risks include: TAP cedes recent market share gains to Bud Light as that brand recovers; Acceleration plan fails to deliver mgmt's intended transformation across the broader beer/FMB portfolio driving declines in TAP's beer volume and market share (across both core economy SKUs and Above Premium beer/FMB) or consumer preferences shift away from mainstream/budget-priced beer and TAP's Beyond Beer strategy fails to resonate with consumers.

• SAM - Our 12-month price target is $192 and is based on an equal-weighted EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x and P/E multiple of 16.6x, both based on our Q5-Q8 estimates. Risks include: hard seltzer category growth accelerates and Truly gains momentum; Truly gains significant share and household penetration; SAM successfully stabilizes the Sam Adams brand; and supply chain capacity constraints for hard seltzer ease.

Professional subscribers can read the full Beer note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 18:00

Rubio Says 'We Remember Their Lives And Honor Their Legacy' On Tiananmen Massacre's 37th Anniversary

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement to mark the 37th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s Tiananmen Square Massacre.

“On June 4, the world marks 37 years since the Chinese Communist Party ordered its troops to attack thousands of peaceful demonstrators in and around Tiananmen Square,” Rubio said in a statement late June 3 in the United States, which is hours behind China.

“Chinese students, workers, and other civilians who lost their lives had gathered to exercise their natural rights and demand democratic reforms and accountability for corruption. We remember their lives and honor their legacy,” he said.

“No amount of censorship can erase the past. Those who sacrificed to uphold their unalienable rights of free expression and peaceful assembly will be vindicated someday.”

Mention of the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre is heavily censored in mainland China, with terms such as “June 4,” “6/4,” “64,” “六四” (in Chinese), and related phrases routinely blocked across all information platforms by China’s internet police. Closer to the sensitive date, even terms like “that year” are censored in an effort to suppress all mention of the Chinese lives lost that day and what they stood for.

Despite being unsuccessful in China, the protests sent shockwaves throughout the world and helped strengthen the resolve of people in other communist states, such as East Germany and Romania, also seeking liberty.

At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dispatched Vice Premier Yao Yilin to East Germany in October 1989 to share its methods for suppressing protests.

This year may be particularly sensitive for the CCP, following the November 2025 leak of classified video footage of the 1990 military trial of Maj. Gen. Xu Qinxian, who refused to deploy troops against the protesters in 1989.

Xu’s testimony revealed operational details of the military response in 1989—information that the CCP considered to be state secrets.

The video footage was quickly scrubbed from the Chinese internet after it was leaked, but it generated widespread attention among Chinese-speaking users outside of mainland China.

Every year, the CCP harasses or rounds up dissidents, activists, journalists, lawyers, and Tiananmen-related figures for preemptive detention or house arrest ahead of the June 4 date as part of its “stability maintenance” operations.

But in a first such action in more than three decades, the Tiananmen Mothers group, representing the families of victims of the massacre, was blocked from visiting the graves of their loved ones at Beijing’s Wan'an Cemetery by police on June 4, according to Radio Free Asia.

Ahead of the date, arrests were also underway. In May, pro-democracy activist Mao Qingxiang in Hangzhou was detained by Chinese police after he shared a video of recently released dissident Xu Guang, whose post-prison remarks included a call to “never forget June 4.”

Chinese in Hong Kong have also been blocked from marking the anniversary, with the annual candlelight vigil in Victoria Park that once drew tens of thousands of people in remembrance of the human rights travesty banned since 2020 under the Beijing-imposed national security law.

(Top) Hong Kong police officers occupy Victoria Park in the afternoon of June 4, 2021, to prevent people from entering; (bottom) The June 4 candlelight vigil in Victoria Park in 2017. The Epoch Times

Known pro-democracy voices in the city have also been monitored or harassed in an attempt to deter any bigger incidents. But Chinese around the world in cities such as Taipei, Sydney, London, and New York will gather for vigils to commemorate the June 4 anniversary.

In a statement the morning of June 4, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called on China to acknowledge the deadly clampdown on Chinese protesters in Tiananmen Square 37 years ago and “face the wounds of history” for a better future.

“What was shot and crushed that year was not only the life and youth of those who participated in the democracy movement, but also the desire and practice of the pursuit of freedom and democracy by an entire generation of China,” he said in a post on social media.

“I sincerely hope that China will face up to the June 4 incident 37 years ago, recognize the truth, comfort the pain, and open reconciliation and dialogue.”

Lai said that a “sound government” should support the next generation to “live a better life than themselves, instead of killing their dreams and erasing their opinions with violence, surveillance, etc.”

“Taiwan will stand with all those who pursue freedom and democracy until the truth is seen, the pain is comforted, until no one else loses their lives in the pursuit of freedom. Because a country that respects its people, protects freedom, and practices democracy is a country that is truly worthy of respect,” he said.

U.S. President Donald Trump also made a statement condemning communism as June 4 arrived in China.

“Remember, breathtaking ‘Popularity’ first, and then, guaranteed DEATH AND DESTRUCTION!” he wrote on Truth Social.

“Has anyone ever seen a Happy Communist?” he added.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 17:40

Korean Officials Are "Paying Close Attention" As Foreign Outflows Trigger Bond/Won Collapse

Unless you have been living under a rock, you'll know that South Korea's stock market has been rocketing higher on the back of the AI/Semi speculation as SK Hynix and Samsung have dominated (accounting for over 40% of the KOSPI market cap)...

But, as the following chart from Goldman Sachs shows, this surge in Korean stocks has been driven by domestic Retail investors as Foreign investors have fled that market en masse...

These outflows have sparked a collapse in the Korean Won (exacerbated by pressure some Asian currencies face as the Iran war drags on), now at its weakest versus the USDollar since 2009...

...and pushed yields for South Korean bonds to their highest in almost 3 years...

With all that in mind, Bloomberg reported earlier in the week that South Korean officials have intensified monitoring of the government bond market through daily phone calls and a private messaging group with market participants, as authorities step up efforts to contain rising yields.

Since May 18, a group of deputy directors in the finance ministry’s treasury-bond division have been calling bond dealers and asset managers before the start of trading to gauge market sentiment and investor positioning, Hwang Soon Kwan, deputy finance minister for treasury, said in an interview. In some cases, the discussions are held in person, he said.

“We are paying close attention to managing the bond market and are determined to respond firmly to any excessive moves,” Hwang said Friday in Seoul.

The ministry also set up a private KakaoTalk chat room on May 21 that now includes about 17 participants, according to Hwang.

Members include Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, senior ministry officials, researchers, primary dealers and fund managers, who share research reports and market views on a daily basis.

The moves are not intended to press yields down, but to signal authorities are closely monitoring the market, he added.

The government last week reduced planned bond issuance for June by about 21% from the previous month, adding to efforts to ease upward pressure on yields.

Additionally, just days later, Bloomberg reports that Finance Minister Koo Yun Cheol said authorities were closely monitoring FX market developments “with a high degree of vigilance to prevent anxiety from spreading,” and vowed to “take prompt, necessary measures in case of excessive market moves.”

Asian policymakers are coming up against the limit of their currency defense as elevated oil prices hurt the region’s importers.

Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines also stepped up measures to defend currencies. 

“The authorities are doing what they can, but given that the won is being driven by external factors, it’s likely difficult to control,” said So Jaeyong, chief economist at Shinhan Bank in Seoul.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 17:20

63 Arrested, Crypto Millions Frozen As FBI, DOJ Team Up With Meta, Coinbase And Starlink To Bust Scammers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

More than 1 million scam-related online accounts were taken down, and millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency were frozen, as part of a crackdown on Southeast Asian scam networks.

Scam center workers, many of whom were trafficked and forced to work for criminals, are guarded by Karen Border Guard troops in Myawaddy, Burma, on Feb. 26, 2025. Stringer/Reuters

The crackdown operations, conducted by U.S. and international agencies led by the Department of Justice (DOJ), began on May 18, when the DOJ's Scam Center Strike Force brought together the FBI, Royal Thai Police, and law enforcement agencies from Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand to identify and disrupt criminal scam networks.

Meta, Microsoft, Starlink, and Coinbase were part of joint operations held in Washington and Bangkok, Meta said in a June 3 statement.

"More than a million online assets were disrupted as a result of the operation - including 1.4 million accounts, pages, and groups across Facebook and Instagram, 20,000 Microsoft accounts, and thousands of Starlink kits - and the Royal Thai Police has arrested 63 individuals involved in scam operations," Meta said.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase "froze more than $3 million in cryptocurrency assets tied to criminal networks." In addition, Starlink "terminated connectivity for thousands of Starlink kits that were attributed to unlawful use," it said.

Criminal syndicates behind the fraud have exploited millions of people globally via romance scams and investment fraud, and through utilizing forced labor. This makes coordinated disruption critical to protecting people, Meta said.

FBI Director Kash Patel thanked Meta for the company's assistance in a June 3 post on X, and said the operation was "just the beginning!"

The DOJ said that the joint initiative interrupted malicious network connections hosted by scammers. Moreover, servers and hosting infrastructure associated with the scam networks in Southeast Asia were decommissioned.

Many scam centers are run from Laos, Cambodia, and Burma along the border with Thailand, across several industrial-scale compounds.

As for forced labor, criminal networks lure unsuspecting people to Thailand with promises of high-paying jobs, then seize their identification and coerce them to work at such sites. The victims run scams against targets under the threat of violence.

In its recent statement, Meta said that intelligence-sharing among entities has led to the identification of several potential new scam center locations and networks.

"Blockchain technology is one of the most powerful tools we have in the fight against financial crime," Leah Bressack, vice president at Coinbase, said.

"Unlike traditional financial systems, the transparent and immutable nature of transaction data means bad actors can't hide - every transaction leaves a trail. That transparency is exactly what allowed us to work with law enforcement to trace, freeze, and disrupt these criminal networks."

Crackdown On Fraud

The crackdown follows President Donald Trump's signing of an executive order on March 6 to counter scam operations - Combating Cybercrime, Fraud, and Predatory Schemes Against American Citizens.

"Cybercrime, fraud, and predatory schemes are draining American families of their life savings, stealing the benefits of years of work, and destroying the lives of our youth," Trump said in the order.

"It is the policy of the United States to protect Americans from, and harden our financial and digital systems against, these threats. The United States shall counter attacks on Americans with a commensurate response that includes law enforcement, diplomacy, and potential offensive actions."

According to the recent DOJ statement, the Scam Center Strike Force is a "critical node" in executing Trump's order.

Online scams pose a major financial threat to Americans. An April 2025 report from the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center revealed that the center received 859,532 complaints of suspected internet crimes in 2024.

The total financial losses from these crimes amounted to $16 billion, a 33 percent increase from the previous year.

Older adults were significantly affected, with 147,127 complaints filed by people aged 60 or older, totaling $4.88 billion in losses.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 17:00

Communist Hasan Piker Blames "Homo-Fascism" After Scott Wiener Crushes His Preferred SF Candidate

Far-left Turkish-American millionaire and Twitch streamer Hasan Piker lashed out during a Tuesday livestream after his friend, San Francisco congressional candidate Saikat Chakrabarti, was badly defeated in the primary race to succeed Nancy Pelosi.

Chakrabarti, a former aide to the unhinged socialist NY Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, spent $10 million of his own money but was polling around 15% with about half the vote counted. 

Piker strangely blamed Chakrabarti's poor performance on San Francisco's urban layout and car dependency, despite the city's reputation for public transit.

He then pivoted into attacking the city's affluent liberal voter base: 

You know what it is? I know what it is. F**king car-reliant infrastructure. The more cars you have, the more chuddy the f**king city is.

That's it. No public transit. No f**king people living close to one another. It's just f**king rich liberals who just want homo-fascism in the country, that's it. They want gay fascism. They want gay techno-fascism.

X user Dipper captured Piker's livestream meltdown in a post titled "He's so fucking mad, commies down horrendously."

He's so fucking mad, commies down horrendously. https://t.co/VAySH1m6kV pic.twitter.com/J0SM3dXEO9

— Dipper (@dipperid) June 3, 2026

Late Wednesday, Chakrabarti blamed his loss on outside money from AI, crypto, and AIPAC-linked interests ... 

The campaign has ended, but the mission remains. We must wrest control of our country away from the corporations and back into the hands of people. And the only force capable of doing that is a movement of people unlike any we have seen in generations. Thank you to everyone who… pic.twitter.com/P1yDPz4Aie

— Saikat Chakrabarti for Congress (@saikatc) June 4, 2026

As for Piker, he's made the news in recent weeks after committing an operational-security mistake by publicly identifying American Marxist tech financier Neville Roy Singham, who has reportedly been living in China and has been linked by The New York Times to CCP-aligned propaganda networks, as a major financier of pro-Marxist revolutionary NGOs operating inside the U.S.

The question political observers are asking is: What has the Democratic Party become? Really it has been radicalized, championing anti-American values, promoting socialism and Marxism, aligning with revolutionary far-left NGOs funding chaos in the streets, and some of that may point to foreign influence operations run through the Singham network and other dark-money-funded NGOs.

"This realignment of Democratic Party power, away from the old-school, Ivy League establishment, into the hands of the socialists, the radical Muslims and the guys with Nazi tats, will have profound implications for the 2028 presidential race," Owen Gregorian noted on X.

The age of the Democratic Party blocking fringe outsiders is officially over | David Marcus, Fox News

There were two events on Tuesday that offered more proof of a national Democratic Party establishment that has lost control: One was a meeting, one an election, and both are… pic.twitter.com/ENMYpVJmIe

— Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) June 4, 2026

Democrats have become the party of incoherent lunatics.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 16:40

Obamacare Fraud Estimated To Cost $25 Billion This Year: Report

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Taxpayers will foot the bill for up to $25 billion in improper Obamacare payments due to organized fraud and improper enrollments in 2026, according to a June 3 report from Paragon Health Institute.

A pedestrian passes an insurance agency that offers Affordable Care Act plans in Miami, on Jan. 28, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Some 6.2 million enrollments in the healthcare exchanges during the most recent open-enrollment period were improper, the report said, accounting for 27 percent of all enrollments.

The conservative think tank has studied fraud in the Obamacare program since 2024.

The problem of improper enrollments persists despite recent attempts to curtail it, and appears to involve organized efforts by unscrupulous insurance brokers, the report concluded.

Meanwhile, some industry groups have criticized the findings.

Incentives For Fraud

Obamacare's premium subsidies, which cover 100 percent of the health coverage policy for many beneficiaries, and referral bonuses offer an incentive for both enrollees and brokers to abuse the system, the report concluded.

Researchers identified improper enrollments by comparing Obamacare data to Census Bureau population estimates. The improper enrollments were calculated by a state-by-state comparison of enrollments in the lowest income category to the number of people having that income level in the state.

The lowest income category is 100 percent to 150 percent of the federal poverty level, or about $16,000 to $24,000 per year for an individual or about $27,000 to $41,000 for a family of three.

Enrollees with incomes at that level receive the highest subsidies. During the 2026 open enrollment period, 29 percent of enrollees chose a plan with a $0 premium.

That gives enrollees and the agents who sign people up for Obamacare an incentive to misstate their income, the report concluded.

The American Hospital Association has said Paragon's research results are not valid due to flawed methodology. "The Census uses different income and household size definitions than the Marketplace so there is no possibility of the data matching," the group said in an August 2025 statement. The association also said the Census relies on reported income but Obamacare asks for projected income.

The total value of Obamacare subsidies to be paid in 2026 is $88 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Agents who enroll individuals or families in Obamacare earn a commission averaging around $20 per enrollee per month for as long as the policy is active.

Obamacare received more than 23 million enrollments during the 2026 open enrollment period.

Subsidies and commissions are paid on "effectuated" enrollments, meaning enrollees who selected a plan and paid the initial premium.

The number of effectuated enrollments for 2026 has not yet been released, though about 96 percent of signups became effectuated enrollments in 2025.

Weak Controls

Congress allowed Obamacare's enhanced subsidies to expire in 2025, which reduced the number of people eligible for a 100 percent subsidy.

Yet improper enrollments persist in part because of automatic re-enrollment, said Brian Blase, Paragon's founder and president.

"Automatic re-enrollment remains pervasive. Nearly 40 percent of 2026 exchange enrollees were automatically re-enrolled," Blase told The Epoch Times by email.

That allows previous improper enrollments to carry over from year to year.

Congress and the Trump administration have taken actions to strengthen checks on improper enrollment, but most are not yet in effect.

Enacted law will require annual income eligibility verification. That takes effect in 2028.

The administration implemented stricter verification rules in May 2026, but they did not impact the 2026 open enrollment, which ended Jan. 15.

Legal Action Center, a human rights advocacy group, has opposed mandatory re-enrollment and income verification because it places an administrative burden on those dealing with substance abuse, mental health conditions, or criminal convictions.

"There is an ongoing need for an automatic re-enrollment mechanism, given that some people do not actively return to the Marketplace to make plan choices during open enrollment," the group wrote to Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in April 2025. Rather than requiring action on the part of enrollees, Legal Action Center urged the federal government to verify continued eligibility using existing data such as the Social Security Administration and state unemployment databases.

Bad Actors

Unscrupulous brokers appear to have contributed to improper enrollments by steering consumers toward plans that pay larger commissions, Blase said. And the report suggests that some agents have created fictitious enrollments.

"Some brokers and agents continue steering low-income enrollees into $0-premium plans," Blase said, even though it may not provide them the best value.

Bronze plans have no premium for an enrollee at 100 percent of the federal poverty level. But the out-of-pocket costs could total nearly $7,500 per year, according to Paragon.

The same individual could qualify for a silver plan for which the enrollee premium plus out-of-pocket costs totaled $415.

"One plausible explanation is that brokers moved enrollees into $0-premium bronze or gold plans because some consumers will only enroll if coverage is free," Blase said. "And phantom enrollees cannot pay premiums."

Paragon defines phantom enrollments as those that are fictitious, or unaware they are enrolled, or are enrolled in other coverage.

In 2024, 35 percent of Obamacare enrollments reported no medical claims. "The percentage of zero-claim enrollees in the exchanges is dramatically higher than observed in the broader private market and strongly suggests a substantial number of phantom enrollees."

Also, about half of all enrollees reported unknown race or ethnicity in 2026, a trend that began in 2024, according to the report. Researchers say this could indicate that the agents had little contact with the enrollees.

"These findings suggest that a substantial portion of recent ACA exchange enrollment growth may not reflect legitimate increases in insured individuals," the report stated.

America's Health Insurance Plans, an association of health insurers, has been critical of Paragon's previous research on phantom enrollees.

"A 'no-claims' year is evidence that a consumer stayed healthy or only had a few months of coverage - not that taxpayer money was misdirected or that their policy was illegitimate," the group said in an August 2025 statement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 16:20