Watch: US Military Strikes "Very Large" Drug-Carrying Submarine In Caribbean

President Trump confirmed that U.S. forces "destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine" off the coast of Venezuela - the sixth such strike on narco-vessels in recent weeks. The operation highlights a broader military reposturing toward hemispheric defense after three decades of endless wars in the Middle East, a strategic and urgent realignment we've told readers would unfold at the start of the year. In essence, Trump's move to clean up the Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine 2.0), dismantle the command-and-control structures of transnational cartels and narco-terror groups, and purge these criminals from the financial system comes as the U.S. reasserts security across the Americas. 

Late Saturday afternoon, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

It was my great honor to destroy a very large DRUG-CARRYING SUBMARINE that was navigating towards the United States on a well known narcotrafficking transit route. U.S. Intelligence confirmed this vessel was loaded up with mostly Fentanyl, and other illegal narcotics. There were four known narcoterrorists on board the vessel. Two of the terrorists were killed. At least 25,000 Americans would die if I allowed this submarine to come ashore. The two surviving terrorists are being returned to their Countries of origin, Ecuador and Colombia, for detention and prosecution. No U.S. Forces were harmed in this strike. Under my watch, the United States of America will not tolerate narcoterrorists trafficking illegal drugs, by land or by sea. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

President Donald Trump and the Pentagon's public affairs team both shared a video showing U.S. air assets destroying the "drug-carrying submarine." However, no details were provided regarding the type of aircraft or weapons used in the strike.

. @POTUS “It was my great honor to destroy a very large DRUG-CARRYING SUBMARINE that was navigating towards the United States on a well known narcotrafficking transit route. U.S. Intelligence confirmed this vessel was loaded up with mostly Fentanyl, and other illegal narcotics.… pic.twitter.com/0j3sOLNygp

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) October 18, 2025

Our explanation above about the U.S. military reposturing to fulfill Trump's Monroe Doctrine 2.0 also includes breaking the death loop of subsidized Chinese fentanyl precursor chemicals shipped to the Americas, and then cooked by drug cartels, that have in return flooded the nation during Biden-Harris regime's globalist aligned nation-killing open orders (borders have since been shut) that contirubted to the worst drug-death overdose crisis this nation has ever seen - over 100,000 men and women died each year. 

China's irregular warfare campaign - death by 1,000 paper cuts - has been an aggressive, multifaceted "total war" against the U.S. that leverages next-generation weapons (view weapons here), including synthetic narcotics (e.g., fentanyl and cannabinoids), bioweapons (e.g., Covid-19), psychological manipulation and influence (e.g., TikTok), and a broad arsenal of irregular warfare tools, according to CCP BioThreats Initiative and authored by Dr. Ryan Clarke, LJ Eads, Dr. Robert McCreight, and Dr. Xiaoxu Sean Lin, outlined in their book China's Total War Strategy: Next-Generation Weapons of Mass Destruction. 

In short, viewing Trump's military reposturing through the lens of Monroe Doctrine 2.0 helps make sense of the seemingly chaotic events unfolding in the Caribbean area. The U.S. is reasserting its influence, countering transnational gang threats and preparing to stabilize the hemisphere by pushing China out.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/19/2025 - 10:15

The Final Crisis: This Is Our Future

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

Turn out the lights, the party's over
They say that all good things must end
Call it a night, the party's over
And tomorrow starts the same old thing again

     - Willie Nelson

Willie Nelson is not, to my knowledge, a proponent of any economic cycle theories – though now at 92, he’s seen more cycles than most of us. But he was singing back in the 1950s how good things eventually end… and then we quickly start them again.

Debt-driven growth definitely feels good. We all enjoy it immensely as long as it lasts.

Then the lights go out and the party’s over. Yes, it starts again, but not until we all stumble around in the dark for a while.

Unfortunately, The Debt Super Cycle is typically at least 80 years so nobody remembers the pain and why we should avoid it. Perhaps in this coming crisis we can do better. We can’t avoid it, but we can think about how to deal with it in advance rather than making decisions on the fly like we did during The Great Recession.

I’ve been reviewing Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke. He shows in exhaustive detail how our current party is quickly approaching its lights-out moment. I can’t recommend this book highly enough. If you missed Part 1 and Part 2 of my review series, read them and then read the whole book. The quotes I’m sharing only scratch the surface.

Today we’re going to zoom in on that light switch.

Ray’s historical research found a specific sequence of events usually defined the cycle-ending crisis. Given where we are now, it may be a good preview of our next few years.

Broken Promises

Before we talk about the final crisis, I want to review a critical distinction Ray found in his research. Debt crises unfold differently depending whether the monetary system is based on hard money or fiat money.

Note that a “hard” currency in this sense doesn’t have to be gold, silver, etc. It can be a government-issued currency that’s pegged to some other currency the issuing government can’t control. This lack of control is the key. Here’s Ray:  

“In brief, the way the hard currency cases work is that the governments have made promises to deliver money that they can’t print (e.g., gold, silver, or another currency that the parties view as relatively hard, like the dollar). Throughout history, when coming up with these hard currencies that they can’t print to pay debts becomes tough, the governments almost always renege on their promises to pay in the currency that they can’t print, and the value of their money and the debt payments denominated in it tumble at the moment the promise is broken.

“After governments break their promise by not going back to having a hard currency, they have what is called a fiat monetary system. In these cases, the currency’s value is based on the faith and incentives that the central banks provide. The most recent shift of most currencies from being hard to being fiat started on August 15, 1971. I remember it well because I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the time and was surprised by it; then I studied history and found that the exact same thing happened in April 1933, and I learned how they worked.

“In fiat monetary systems, central banks primarily use interest rates, their ability to monetize debt, and the tightness of money to provide the incentives for lender-creditors to lend and hold debt assets. And throughout history they, like central governments and central bankers operating in hard currency regimes, have created too much debt (which are claims that people believe they can turn in to get money, which they expect they can use to buy things), so there are the same types of debt/credit dynamics at work…

“Big Debt Cycles through history have typically included currency regimes going back and forth between being hard and fiat because they each led to extreme consequences and required movements to the opposite—the hard currency regimes broke down with big devaluations because the governments couldn’t maintain debt growth in line with their monetary constraints, and the fiat monetary systems broke down because of the loss of faith in the debt/money being a safe storehold him of wealth.”

One critical point here: debt cycles happen even if you have a hard currency. They look somewhat different but still occur. This is because both regimes consist of humans who demand and extend unwise amounts of credit. 

Coincident Cycles

The Big Debt Cycles Ray Dalio describes generally last around 80 years. They are composed of smaller cycles which average around six years. The US has seen 12 of these short-term cycles since 1945 (80 years ago). We are presently almost six years into the short-term cycle that began in 2020. These timespans can vary a bit, but it certainly appears we are approaching the end of a short-term cycle which will likely also conclude a Big Debt Cycle.

In my view, it is not coincidence other cycles are similarly approaching critical phases: Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning, George Friedman’s institutional and social cycles, and Peter Turchin’s “elite overproduction” theory. We should pay attention when great minds independently agree on something like this. Especially when significantly different theoretical foundations all point to the same end result.

So where is this last phase going? Ray Dalio says the current short-term debt cycle revolves around the monetization of government deficits. The shortfalls were already giant before the pandemic. The policies governments developed to handle that problem made the debt problem far worse. Here’s how Ray describes it.

“The 2020-21 debt monetization was the fourth and the largest big debt monetization since the original big debt monetization/QE in 2008 (which was the first since 1933). From the start of the easing cycle of 2008, the nominal Treasury bond yield was pushed down from 3.7% to only 0.5%, the real Treasury bond yield was pushed from 1.4% to -1%, and the non-government nominal and real bond yields fell a lot more (because credit spreads narrowed). Money and credit became essentially free and plentiful, so the environment became great for borrower-debtors and terrible for lender-creditors and led to an orgy of borrowing and new bubbles forming.

“That debt/credit/money surge in 2020 produced a big increase in inflation, which was exacerbated by supply chain problems and external conflicts (the third of the five major forces that I will touch on at the end of this chapter). That big increase in inflation led to the short-term debt cycle tightening by the Fed and the contraction in the balance sheet by having maturing debt roll off rather than buying more of it. As a result of the Fed (and other central banks) changing their short-term debt cycle mode from easing to tightening, nominal and real interest rates went from levels that were overwhelmingly favorable to borrower-debtors and detrimental to lender-creditors to levels that were more normal (e.g., a 2% real bond yield).”

That last point is important. The Fed’s 2022-2023 rates hikes seemed aggressive mainly because they followed (belatedly) a period of unprecedented debt stimulus. It didn’t so much “tighten” policy as simply bring it back closer to normal. But it didn’t feel that way those who had been feasting on debt.

Chief among those debtors was (and is) the US government, of course. Which is why the Final Crisis is drawing near.

The Final Crisis: This Is Our Future 

In How Countries Go Broke, Ray Dalio both describes individual cases and develops what he calls the “archetype” Big Debt Cycle. The archetype is a baseline that generally describes how the process goes, though individual cases all have their own twists.

Dalio’s archetypical “Final Crisis” has nine stages. He notes there can be big variations in what happens and when it happens. The nine stages are more like a list of the negative things that produce the crisis, and the steps that are usually taken to try and get out of it.

Here’s how Dalio describes the Final Crisis which, as I said above, is very near, if not already upon us. These are the unhealthy conditions that typify the last stages of the Big Debt Cycle. Note that Ray is describing what he (and to a great deal I) believes is going to happen. This is our future:

“1. The private sector and government get deep in debt.

“2. The private sector suffers a debt crisis, and the central government gets deeper in debt to help the private sector.

“3. The central government experiences a debt squeeze in which the free-market demand for its debt falls short of the supply of it. That creates a debt problem. At that time, there is either a) a shift in monetary and fiscal policy that brings the supply and demand for money and credit back into balance or b) a self-reinforcing net selling of the debt, which creates a severe debt liquidation crisis that runs its course and reduces the size of debt and debt service levels relative to incomes. Big net selling of the debt is the big red flag.

“4. The selling of government debt leads to a simultaneous a) free-market-driven tightening of money and credit, which leads to b) a weakening of the economy, c) declining reserves, and d) downward pressure on the currency. Because this tightening is too harmful for the economy, the central bank typically also eases credit and experiences a devaluation of the currency. That stage is easy to see in the market action via interest rates rising, led by long-term rates (bond yields) rising faster than short rates and the currency weakening simultaneously.

“5. When there is a debt crisis and interest rates can’t be lowered (e.g., they hit 0% or long rates limit the decline of short rates), the central bank “prints” (creates) money and buys bonds to try to keep long rates down and to ease credit to make it easier to service debt. It doesn’t literally print money; it essentially borrows reserves from commercial banks that it pays a very short-term interest rate on. This creates problems for the central bank if this debt selling and rising interest rates continue.

“6. If the selling continues and interest rates continue to rise, the central bank loses money because the interest rate that it has to pay on its liabilities is greater than the interest rate it receives on the debt assets it bought. When that happens, that is notable but not a big red flag until the central bank has a significant negative net worth and is forced to print more money to cover the negative cash flow that it experiences due to less money coming in on its assets than it has to go out to service its debt liabilities. That is a big red flag because it signals the central bank’s death spiral (i.e., the dynamic in which the rising interest rates cause problems that creditors see, which lead them not to hold the debt assets, which leads to higher interest rates or the need to print more money, which devalues the money, which leads to more selling of the debt assets and the currency, and so on). That is what I mean when I say the central bank goes broke. I call this “going broke” because the central bank can’t make its debt service payments, though it doesn’t default on its debts because it prints money. When done in large amounts, that devalues the money and creates inflationary recessions or depressions.

“7. Debts are restructured and devalued. When managed in the best possible way, the government controllers of fiscal and monetary policy execute what I call a “beautiful deleveraging,” in which the deflationary ways of reducing debt burdens (e.g., through debt restructurings) are balanced with the inflationary ways of reducing debt burdens (e.g., by monetizing them) so that the deleveraging occurs without having unacceptable amounts of either deflation or inflation.

“8. At such times, extraordinary policies like extraordinary taxes and capital controls are commonly imposed. (Read this twice! - JM)

“9. The deleveraging process inevitably reduces the debt burdens and creates the return to equilibrium. One way or another, the debt and debt service levels are brought back in line with the incomes that exist to service the debts. Quite often, there are inflationary depressions, so the debt is devalued at the end of the cycle, government reserves are raised through asset sales, and a strictly enforced transition from a rapidly declining currency to a relatively stable currency is simultaneously achieved by the central bank linking the currency to a hard currency or a hard asset (e.g., gold) and central government and private sector finances being brought back in line to a sustainable level.

“At the early stage of this phase, it is imperative that the rewards of holding the currency and the debt denominated in it, and the penalties of owing money, are great in order to re-establish the creditability of the money and credit by rewarding the lender-creditors and penalizing the borrower-debtors. In this phase of the cycle, there is very tight money and a very high real interest rate, which is very painful but required for a while. If it persists, the supply and demand for money, credit, debt, spending, and savings will inevitably fall back into line.

“How exactly this happens largely depends on whether the debt is denominated in a currency that the central bank can create and whether the debtors and creditors are primarily domestic so that the central government and the central bank have more flexibility and control over the process. If so, that makes the process less painful, and, if not, it is inevitably much more painful. Also, whether the currency is a widely used reserve currency matters a lot because when it is there will be greater marginal inclinations to buy it and the debt that it is stored in.”

Our current situation, as I see it:

• Stages 1, 2, 3 and 4 have already happened.

• Stage 5 is underway as the Fed tries to see how low it can push rates without raising inflation, while Congress and the President seek ways to salvage politically popular spending programs and tax policies.

• Stage 7 may be starting as some of the riskiest private borrowers (First Brands, Tricolor) start hitting the wall.

• Stages 6, 8 and 9 are still over the horizon.

If I’m right, we still have some time to prepare, but it’s running out. Dalio holds out hope this could end in one of his “Beautiful Deleveraging” scenarios I described last week. I have a hard time thinking we will be so lucky. We’re definitely not doing the things needed to keep that possibility open.

What we know is that the economy will be deleveraged, beautifully or not. Nothing about the process will be fun. But we know it’s coming. Prepare while you can.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/19/2025 - 09:20

Mamdani Poses With WTC-Linked Imam Whose Son Ran 'Decomposing Child' Terrorist Compound

New York City Mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani posted a picture of himself posing with a Brooklyn Imam known as being an unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing whose son ran a terrorist camp for children. 

In a post to X, Mamdani can be seen posing with Imam Siraj Wahhaj and City Councilmember Yusef Abdus Salaam in Wahhaj's Bed-Stuy mosque in celebration of the weekly Muslim prayer. 

Today at Masjid At-Taqwa, I had the pleasure of meeting with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century. I was also joined by CM @dr_yusefsalaam of Harlem. A beautiful Jummah. pic.twitter.com/4kcN4CGlUk

— Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@ZohranKMamdani) October 18, 2025

"Today at Masjid At-Taqwa, I had the pleasure of meeting with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century," Mamdani wrote on Friday. 

About that camp...

In August 2018, not one. Not two. But three of Wahhaj's children were charged with terrorism and felony child abuse for running a 'terrorist training camp' in the New Mexico desert that was allegedly meant to train child school shooters, and where the remains of Wahhaj's abducted three-year-old son were found by police. 

The younger Siraj Ibn Wahhaj, 40 (at the time), had stuffed 11 children into an RV with five adults on the compound, which could be accessed via underground tunnel. 

The couple and three other adults – Wahhaj’s sisters, Hujrah Wahhaj and Subhannah Wahhaj; and Lucas Morten – were charged with 11 felony counts of child abuse. 

The surviving children from the compound told police that Jany Leveille, 35 Wahhaj's partner, "intended to confront 'corrupt' institutions or individuals, such as the military, big businesses, CIA, teachers/schools and reveal the 'truth' to these corrupt institutions or individuals." 

In particular, the Jihadis were targeting Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta - after Leveille in a journal "expressed her displeasure with Grady Hospital ... due to the treatment she and her mother received there," according to the document. 

A handwritten document titled "Phases of a Terrorist Attack" was found at the encampment where authorities found the decomposing remains of Siraj Ibn Wahhaj's three-year-old son and trained several children to commit acts of terrorism, CNN reported at the time. 

The handwritten document contained "instructions for 'The one-time terrorist,' instructions on the use of a 'choke point,' a location 'called the ideal attack site,' the 'ability to defend the safe haven,' the 'ability to escape-perimeter rings,' and 'sniper position detection procedure,'" according to the court filing.

Some of the children at the compound told police that Morten allegedly "stated he wished to die in Jihad, as a martyr," prosecutors said in the motion.

"At times, Jany Leveille would laugh and joke about dying in Jihad as would Subhanna Wahhaj," according to the court document. -CNN

And of course, the case was botched and the judge was shady. For starters, Judge Sarah Backus let the suspects out on $20,000 signature bond - meaning they didn't have to come up with any cash. 

Judge Sarah Backus,  Siraj Wahhaj

Then, all charges were dropped against three of the five suspects after Backus recused herself from the case because the state failed to indict them within a 10-day window.

Then, the compound was mysteriously bulldozed. 

Taos County Sheriff Jerry Hogrefe said that during the initial serving of the search warrant, their tactical team came upon children holding boxes of ammo, and at least one child was armed when he was found. The defendants' attorney tried to downplay the "heavily armed" portion of the case.  

While cross-examining of Hogrefe, the suspects' defense attorneys each took their chance to try and distance the suspects as far from the weapons as possible, and the connotations of violence they imply. One defense attorney suggested it's "prudent" that children learn how to use firearms safely, which Hogrefe agreed to.

The sheriff also confirmed that Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms is investigating the legalities surrounding the occupants' possession of firearms. 

Another defense attorney pointed out, and Hogrefe confirmed, that the compound's occupants did not shoot at the tactical team as they raided the compound. He did say, however, that Morton was "struggling" and "resisting" while being arrested by deputies. -KOB.com

THREAD: This week we were given rare access inside the NM compound where authorities think children were getting weapons training to carry out school shootings. This is part of the tunnel that extends out from the property. @NBCNews pic.twitter.com/1tuGlkeHzX

— Gadi Schwartz (@GadiNBC) August 11, 2018

Anyway, Mamdani's hanging with the guy who raised these pieces of shit. The elder Wahhaj claims he helped authorities find the compound and distanced himself from his three terrorist children, but you know what they say about apples and trees - much less three apples.

*  *  *

Astaxanthin // Peak Focus // Mushroom 10x

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/19/2025 - 09:00

Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.
This is the 21st year I've been writing this blog!
Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.

However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).

A few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here

Then I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:
In 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession Calls

For the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.
...
I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!

And I updated that post several times.
And on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a Bloomberg article:

Bill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.

“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.

And in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller A comment on Professor Shiller's "The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?". My conclusion:

No big deal, and definitely not a "gigantic" boom in house prices.

In 2021, I wrote: Is there a New Housing Bubble?

The lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.
...
From a historical perspective, house prices are high. But lending standards have been solid, and we haven't seen significant speculation - so I wouldn't call this a bubble.

Also in 2021, I started my real estate newsletter.  
Note: for $25 you can read the entire archive and one month of daily posts - but make sure you cancel or substack will bill you every month! For $100, you will usually receive 4 to 6 articles per week for a year, you can read the archive and comment on all the posts.
A few key articles:
Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift
Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust
Household Formation Drives Housing Demand
The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift
Stay tuned!

Digital ID Black Pill Moment?

Authored by Patti Johnson via The Burning Platform blog,

For those unclear on what a Black Pill Moment means, I’ll share my take on the definition:

Black Pill Moment: A “Black Pill Moment” is when someone grasps a harsh, pessimistic truth about the world, leading to despair or hopelessness if they let it sink in. It’s a grim realization that things may be beyond repair, hitting like a gut punch.

Red Pill Moment: A “Red Pill Moment” is when someone sees a tough truth about the world, shattering old beliefs but leaving hope that change is possible if enough people act. It’s like waking up to a challenging reality with resolve to fight for better.

Blue Pill Moment: A “blue pill moment” is when someone avoids a harsh truth, choosing the comfort of denial or ignorance, like believing “ignorance is bliss.” Some psychiatrists call SSRIs like Prozac “blue pills” for creating an “I don’t care” mindset, numbing people to reality.

In the 1999 movie, The Matrix, Neo is offered a red pill or a blue pill by Morpheus. The red pill means waking up to the harsh truth of reality, rejecting illusions (like the Matrix’s simulated world), while the blue pill means staying in comfortable ignorance, unaware of the truth.

I usually see myself as red-pilled, believing in tough truths/reality, but holding onto hope for change.

If we are not careful a black pill can can be so earth shattering that it may lead to taking a blue pill!

After reading editorials about Texas’s mandated digital ID for apps, supposedly to protect children, I researched how many states and countries have mandatory or voluntary digital ID systems. (Voluntary is the trojan horse for future mandatory)  What I found opened my eyes to what could be labelled a “black pill moment”—the global push for digital IDs is far advanced, likely past the point of no return, aligning with the UN’s 2030 goal of universal legal identity and enabling a globalist digital currency system that could control access to everything.

In September 2015, all 193 UN Member States adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.9  aims to provide legal identity, including birth registration, for everyone by 2030. This goal supports a global push for universal digital identity. The World Bank’s Identification for Development (ID4D) Initiative, a key partner, consolidates civil registries and promotes digital ID services. ID2020, tasked with implementing SDG 16.9, works to ensure everyone has a digital identity by 2030. The World Bank, World Economic Forum, and companies like Palantir, have created a global partnership to build a unified digital identity system.

Currently there are approximately 8,300,000,000 people in the world.  According to the World Bank’s ID4D initiative the number of actual people without any “official” proof of identity is only 850 million.  Only 10% of the world’s population do not have a personal digital ID.

Based on the latest global reports, only 12 countries (out of 198 worldwide) still lack any foundational national digital ID system – such as electronic credentials, biometric verification, or programs that could eventually link to the World Bank’s ID4D framework for universal legal identity. In stark contrast, 186 countries already have at least basic digital ID elements in place, paving the way for interoperability with global systems.

I began my research by manually checking each country’s government website, but after the first 30 – all of which had ID4D digital ID systems – I realized the scale of adoption was overwhelming. Not wanting to waste time on the remaining 168, I did something I never imagined- I enlisted Grok to handle the nitty-gritty and time consuming work of scanning those government websites country by  country. Grok confirmed the relentless global march toward total coverage revealing that 186 countries out of 198 have digital ID systems already in place.

The holdouts are often in regions with limited infrastructure or political instability. For example, North Korea is one of the holdouts because they have their own internal digital tracking system that is not set up to be “linked” (“interoperability”) to the ID4D digital ID Globalist World Bank system.

The countries not yet set up with digital ID’s that can be linked to the digital ID World Bank system in the future are: Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Chad, Eritrea, Tuvalu, Nauru and Oceania. [2] According to the World Bank ID4D website, adoption is accelerating and they expect this list to shrink by 2026.

But what about the United States, “land of the free and home of the brave?” Are we protected against the digital ID world beast system? In three of my prior Burning Platform guest opinions:

The Digital Noose to Track, Trace and Database Every Citizen of the United States is Accelerating with Breakneck Speed 

The Digital Noose Extends Across the Pond and Around the World, and

Dining with the Devils  

I cover in more detail how the very same globalist technocrats who are developing and implementing digital ID systems and AI data banks in the United States are also developing digital ID systems and AI data banks around the world. Built into all these massive data collection systems is “interoperability” to eventually connect to the World Bank beast tracking ID system

 Peter Thiel’s company Palantir is among the technology companies involved with digital ID initiatives linked to international development efforts, including those supported by the World Bank and aligned with UN SDG 16.9. Peter Thiel is a technology advisor to President Trump.

Another illustration of the close connections between U.S. systems and global ID initiatives is Sam Altman, CEO of Open AI and a key AI advisor to President Trump. Altman has called for “international partnerships” on AI regulation, proposing a global body comparable to the International Atomic Energy Agency (AP News, June 6, 2023,). This aligns with Agenda 2030 Goal 17 which emphasizes global partnerships. Why should the system that is supposed to protect our country be regulated by an international organization as Altman suggests? In 2023 Sam Altman started “World Coin” to give people a digital ID by scanning their eyes.

The recent legislation in Texas is just one part of the massive system being put in place here in the “land of the free.”  Even though the United States does not have a national identity card, we have state-issued driver’s licenses which are quickly being transformed to biometric digital ID’s.  As of October 17, 2025, at least 18 U.S. states have fully implemented or are actively issuing biometric-enabled digital driver’s licenses (also known as mobile driver’s licenses or mDLs), where biometrics (such as facial recognition or fingerprint scanning) are used for secure access and authentication on mobile devices.

This app for biometric digital ID was advertised next to an article about Texas mandating digital identity for age verification.

Even if all 50 states do not go biometric on their licenses, multiple systems of womb-to-tomb data collection on every citizen are in the works through several of President Trump’s initiatives. One of those is an electronic health tracking system called “Making Health Technology Great Again.” Apple, Google, Samsung, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, Epic, Oracle, Athena Health and Noom are a few of the big tech companies that will be involved in setting up a centralized national health record database in the United States. Making Health technology Great Again/MHTGA will make medical record sharing possible nationwide. If leadership changes in the future this very system can be linked to the World Bank digital ID beast system.

Is there a way to stop this “Black Pill” train wreck?

Has it gone to the point of no return? Can we pull the plug?  That is for you to decide.

Will you take the Red, Blue or Black pill?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/19/2025 - 08:10

G20 Inflation Tracker: Argentina And Türkiye Remain Inflation Outliers

Inflation remains one of the most pressing global economic issues, and this monthly G20 inflation tracker, via Visual Capitalist's Aneesh Anand, highlights the wide disparities in price growth across the world’s largest economies.

Data comes from the national statistics offices of G20 countries. This August 2025 snapshot captures a continued divergence, with some countries still facing surging consumer prices while others battle deflation.

Here’s the full data set comparing annual inflation rates (CPI, YoY %) in each G20 nation:

At a glance, Argentina (33.6%) and Türkiye (33%) remain the top two inflation hotspots, while China is the only G20 member in deflationary territory at -0.4%.

Argentina: High Inflation Persists, But Shows Signs of Easing

Despite topping the G20 list, Argentina’s inflation trajectory may be turning a corner. Monthly inflation in August came in flat at 1.9%, a notable slowdown compared to earlier in the year. This is the lowest monthly increase since 2022.

However, years of economic mismanagement, currency controls, and a weakening peso have left a lasting impact. Recent U.S. financial support could stabilize Argentina’s economy temporarily—but may introduce new structural challenges if reforms don’t follow.

Türkiye: Interest Rate Policy and Lira Depreciation Fuel Price Growth

Türkiye continues to experience elevated inflation at 33%, with food, energy, and housing costs soaring. The central bank’s decision to cut interest rates despite ongoing inflation has drawn criticism. Consumer prices rose more than expected in August, testing the credibility of monetary policy.

The weak Turkish lira has further exacerbated inflation by raising the cost of imports. Without a decisive shift in economic policy, inflationary pressures are likely to persist.

China’s Slide into Deflation Signals Deeper Economic Concerns

While many nations are still battling inflation, China stands out for the opposite reason: deflation. Consumer prices declined by 0.4% year-over-year in August, suggesting weakening domestic demand.

This trend is part of broader economic issues facing China, including a shrinking working-age population, falling birth rates, and a rapidly aging society. These demographic shifts are expected to reduce productivity and consumer spending over the long term. Meanwhile, the country’s once-booming real estate sector, estimated to account for up to 30% of GDP, continues to face a protracted slowdown, with falling home prices and developer defaults contributing to weak investor and household confidence.

China’s deflation may be symptomatic of deeper structural changes. These include an overreliance on investment-led growth, rising local government debt, and the challenges of transitioning to a more consumption-driven economy. Without robust domestic demand or significant policy shifts, deflationary pressures could linger, posing risks to both China’s long-term growth and global trade dynamics.

Global Inflation Outlook Remains Uneven

Inflation in the U.S. reached 2.9% (its highest since January), while countries like Japan (2.7%) and the Euro Zone (2.0%) hovered near central bank targets. Canada (1.9%) and South Korea (1.7%) remain among the lowest.

For a longer-term perspective, explore our previous coverage on global inflation projections through 2026.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/19/2025 - 07:35

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• How America Got Hooked on Ultraprocessed Foods. The earliest processed foods promised ease and convenience. They filled the bellies of soldiers at war. But now, the evolution and explosion of ultraprocessed foods has become one of the greatest health threats of our time. How did we get here? Let’s take a tour through history. (New York Times)

• Western executives who visit China are coming back terrified? Robotics has catapulted Beijing into a dominant position in many industries. (The Telegraph) see also China Has Overtaken America: And Trump’s policies guarantee that we will never catch up (Paul Krugman)

• Short sellers blame retail investors for worst returns since 2020: Rally in heavily shorted stocks comes as AI hype and hopes of lower rates push S&P 500 to record highs. (Financial Times)

• Congress Thinks Hiding Fund Fees Is Good for You: Even if fund expenses seem to disappear, they’re still the biggest drag on your returns. (Wall Street Journal)

• How Crypto Became a Trump Trade: It’s primarily a vehicle for crony capitalism now. (Paul Krugman)

• Microplastics are everywhere. You can do one simple thing to avoid them. The biggest sources of microplastics have one thing in common, scientists say. Here is how to avoid them. (Washington Post) see also Homeopathy is a scam that causes real harm. Not a single homeopathic “medicine” is FDA-approved. These expensive sugar pills have zero science behind them. (Immunologic)

• The hidden way using a rewards card can cost you more: Starbucks tracked my every purchase — then gave me fewer deals. It’s called surveillance pricing, and it’s yet another reminder that Corporate America is filled with bad actors. (Also, Starbucks sucks worse than ever). (Washington Post)

• ‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat: Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape. (Politico)

• The Shadow President: From the wholesale gutting of federal agencies to the ongoing government shutdown, Russell Vought has drawn the road map for Trump’s second term. Vought has consolidated power to an extent that insiders say they feel like “he is the commander in chief.” (Pro Publica)

• Earth’s Climate Has Passed Its First Irreversible Tipping Point and Entered a ‘New Reality’. The second Global Tipping Points Report warns that the world has crossed a key threshold as ocean heat devastates warm-water reefs. (404)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Henry Ward,  CEO and co-founder of Carta. The firm works with more than 50,000 companies, 8,500 investment funds, and 2.5+ million equity holders to manage capitalization tables, compensation, valuations, and liquidity, tracking over $2.5 trillion in company equity.

 

Average tariff rate on U.S. goods imports for consumption

Source: J.P. Morgan

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

12 Years Of Data Prove China's Belt & Road Initiative Is A Debt Trap

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

After 12 years, Beijing’s four major defenses against the Belt and Road “debt trap” argument are dispelled.

The 12th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (also called One Belt, One Road) was last month. Amid ongoing accusations that it is a debt trap, the Lowy Institute think tank reported that 75 developing nations now face severe debt crises driven by massive repayments to China. Developing countries are expected to pay Beijing a record $35 billion this year, $22 billion of which will come from the world’s poorest nations, forcing deep cuts to health, education, and essential services.

Launched in 2013, the BRI financed large-scale infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America through state-backed loans, making China the world’s largest bilateral creditor. Over the program’s first decade, roughly 80 percent of lending from the Chinese regime went to nations already in or near default. As these debts mature, repayment pressures are straining public finances and reinforcing the charge that Beijing deliberately created a global debt trap.

In its defense, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) advances four flawed arguments to deny that the BRI is a debt trap: first, that many developing countries owe more to Western lenders; second, that U.S. interest rate hikes caused their debt problems; third, that currency depreciation and a slowing global economy are to blame; and fourth, that China rarely seizes assets from countries unable to repay. Each of these claims collapses under scrutiny.

The CCP’s first defense—that many Belt and Road countries owe more to Western or international lenders than to China—is mathematically true in some cases but deeply misleading. While Chinese loans may represent less than half of a country’s total debt, these nations already had extremely low credit ratings and were considered too risky for traditional lenders. Western institutions stopped lending to avoid pushing them into default. China, however, stepped in and issued the very loans that tipped them over the edge. In many cases, Beijing became the lender of last resort because responsible lenders had walked away.

The second argument—that rising U.S. interest rates caused the debt crisis—is equally flawed. Fluctuating rates are a well-known risk built into every sovereign credit assessment. Countries that continue to borrow heavily despite poor ratings do so knowing refinancing will become more expensive when global rates rise. Responsible lenders account for that risk and withdraw when borrowers approach unsustainable levels of debt. China ignores those warnings, continuing to lend, ensuring that default becomes inevitable.

The third claim—blaming the crisis on currency depreciation and a slowing global economy—also collapses under scrutiny. Economic downturns and exchange-rate fluctuations are foreseeable risks that must be weighed before taking on debt. Many Belt and Road countries have weak, partially convertible currencies, but must repay their loans in U.S. dollars. As the dollar strengthens, debt service costs rise, draining national reserves and deepening economic distress. This is not the fault of the West, nor the result of U.S. monetary policy designed to harm others. The CCP’s reasoning is illogical, especially since most Belt and Road loans are themselves denominated in dollars.

The fourth argument used by the CCP against the “debt trap” accusation is that it rarely seizes assets from countries that cannot repay; instead, it claims to provide “debt relief” through refinancing or extending loans. In practice, this approach only deepens dependency. Beijing typically grants short-term restructuring, such as maturity extensions or grace periods, to low-income nations without reducing principal or easing interest rates.

It also relies on “rescue lending” mechanisms, including bridge loans from state banks, currency swap drawdowns through the People’s Bank of China, and commodity prepayment arrangements. These measures do not solve underlying solvency problems but merely postpone default, keeping borrowers afloat long enough to protect China’s own financial system.

A major study by AidData, the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, and the Kiel Institute found that by the end of 2021, China had carried out 128 bailout operations totaling $240 billion across 22 countries, marking a clear shift from infrastructure financing to emergency rescue loans. In 2010, less than 5 percent of China’s overseas lending went to distressed borrowers; by 2022, that figure had soared to 60 percent.

These bailouts also expose Beijing’s hypocrisy: while the CCP accuses the West of predatory interest rates, the average Chinese rescue loan carries an interest rate of about 5 percent, more than double the IMF’s standard 2 percent. As of Oct. 1, 2025, despite higher U.S. interest rates, the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights lending rate stands at only 3.41 percent, still significantly lower than what China charges struggling nations for so-called relief.

The true scale of Belt and Road debt may be far worse than official data suggest. To shield its own banking system, the Chinese regime increasingly uses the People’s Bank of China’s global swap-line network, which has provided more than $170 billion in short-term liquidity to foreign central banks. These loans, often labeled as “temporary,” are routinely rolled over for years, allowing governments to conceal their true debt exposure since international reporting rules exclude short-term liabilities.

This practice has created vast “hidden debts,” estimated at roughly $385 billion by AidData in 2021, and the figure is likely far higher today, as more loans come due and few have been repaid in the intervening years.

The CCP’s opaque bailout strategy—designed to protect its lenders rather than assist struggling nations—ensures that the full weight of Belt and Road debt remains concealed from public view.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 23:20

12 Years Of Data Prove China's Belt & Road Initiative Is A Debt Trap

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

After 12 years, Beijing’s four major defenses against the Belt and Road “debt trap” argument are dispelled.

The 12th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (also called One Belt, One Road) was last month. Amid ongoing accusations that it is a debt trap, the Lowy Institute think tank reported that 75 developing nations now face severe debt crises driven by massive repayments to China. Developing countries are expected to pay Beijing a record $35 billion this year, $22 billion of which will come from the world’s poorest nations, forcing deep cuts to health, education, and essential services.

Launched in 2013, the BRI financed large-scale infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America through state-backed loans, making China the world’s largest bilateral creditor. Over the program’s first decade, roughly 80 percent of lending from the Chinese regime went to nations already in or near default. As these debts mature, repayment pressures are straining public finances and reinforcing the charge that Beijing deliberately created a global debt trap.

In its defense, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) advances four flawed arguments to deny that the BRI is a debt trap: first, that many developing countries owe more to Western lenders; second, that U.S. interest rate hikes caused their debt problems; third, that currency depreciation and a slowing global economy are to blame; and fourth, that China rarely seizes assets from countries unable to repay. Each of these claims collapses under scrutiny.

The CCP’s first defense—that many Belt and Road countries owe more to Western or international lenders than to China—is mathematically true in some cases but deeply misleading. While Chinese loans may represent less than half of a country’s total debt, these nations already had extremely low credit ratings and were considered too risky for traditional lenders. Western institutions stopped lending to avoid pushing them into default. China, however, stepped in and issued the very loans that tipped them over the edge. In many cases, Beijing became the lender of last resort because responsible lenders had walked away.

The second argument—that rising U.S. interest rates caused the debt crisis—is equally flawed. Fluctuating rates are a well-known risk built into every sovereign credit assessment. Countries that continue to borrow heavily despite poor ratings do so knowing refinancing will become more expensive when global rates rise. Responsible lenders account for that risk and withdraw when borrowers approach unsustainable levels of debt. China ignores those warnings, continuing to lend, ensuring that default becomes inevitable.

The third claim—blaming the crisis on currency depreciation and a slowing global economy—also collapses under scrutiny. Economic downturns and exchange-rate fluctuations are foreseeable risks that must be weighed before taking on debt. Many Belt and Road countries have weak, partially convertible currencies, but must repay their loans in U.S. dollars. As the dollar strengthens, debt service costs rise, draining national reserves and deepening economic distress. This is not the fault of the West, nor the result of U.S. monetary policy designed to harm others. The CCP’s reasoning is illogical, especially since most Belt and Road loans are themselves denominated in dollars.

The fourth argument used by the CCP against the “debt trap” accusation is that it rarely seizes assets from countries that cannot repay; instead, it claims to provide “debt relief” through refinancing or extending loans. In practice, this approach only deepens dependency. Beijing typically grants short-term restructuring, such as maturity extensions or grace periods, to low-income nations without reducing principal or easing interest rates.

It also relies on “rescue lending” mechanisms, including bridge loans from state banks, currency swap drawdowns through the People’s Bank of China, and commodity prepayment arrangements. These measures do not solve underlying solvency problems but merely postpone default, keeping borrowers afloat long enough to protect China’s own financial system.

A major study by AidData, the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, and the Kiel Institute found that by the end of 2021, China had carried out 128 bailout operations totaling $240 billion across 22 countries, marking a clear shift from infrastructure financing to emergency rescue loans. In 2010, less than 5 percent of China’s overseas lending went to distressed borrowers; by 2022, that figure had soared to 60 percent.

These bailouts also expose Beijing’s hypocrisy: while the CCP accuses the West of predatory interest rates, the average Chinese rescue loan carries an interest rate of about 5 percent, more than double the IMF’s standard 2 percent. As of Oct. 1, 2025, despite higher U.S. interest rates, the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights lending rate stands at only 3.41 percent, still significantly lower than what China charges struggling nations for so-called relief.

The true scale of Belt and Road debt may be far worse than official data suggest. To shield its own banking system, the Chinese regime increasingly uses the People’s Bank of China’s global swap-line network, which has provided more than $170 billion in short-term liquidity to foreign central banks. These loans, often labeled as “temporary,” are routinely rolled over for years, allowing governments to conceal their true debt exposure since international reporting rules exclude short-term liabilities.

This practice has created vast “hidden debts,” estimated at roughly $385 billion by AidData in 2021, and the figure is likely far higher today, as more loans come due and few have been repaid in the intervening years.

The CCP’s opaque bailout strategy—designed to protect its lenders rather than assist struggling nations—ensures that the full weight of Belt and Road debt remains concealed from public view.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 23:20

These Are The Cars With The Best Resale Value In 2025

Cars are one of the most significant purchases people make, but unlike real estate, their value drops quickly.

To help you protect your investment, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu created this ranking highlighting the 13 cars with the best resale value in America, as of 2025.

This means that all of the models shown in this graphic are from the 2022 model year.

The data in this graphic was compiled by U.S. News, which analyzed pricing and resale trends across 2022 model-year vehicles. It measures the average value these cars lost from MSRP after three years, both as a percentage and in dollar terms.

Toyota is #1 in Value Retention

Toyota’s reputation for reliability and affordability continues to pay off in resale value.

The Corolla Cross leads the list, depreciating just 2.63% (-$662) after three years. Other Toyota models such as the 4Runner, C-HR, and Tacoma also perform exceptionally well in this regard.

Earlier this year, Toyota was ranked the fourth most reliable car brand in America, explaining its consistent demand in both the new and used markets.

Japanese Cars Generally Depreciate Slower

Beyond Toyota, other Japanese brands also fare well. Subaru’s Crosstrek comes in fourth with a depreciation rate of just 4.90%, perhaps due to its all-wheel-drive versatility.

Compact cars like the Honda Civic and Nissan Versa also appear in the top 10, offering a compelling mix of efficiency, practicality, and reliability.

The Mustang Endures

Among a sea of Japanese cars, the Ford Mustang stands out as the only American vehicle in this ranking.

With an average depreciation of 5.41%, the Mustang’s enduring design and heritage help it resist the sharp value declines typical of many U.S. models.

Another factor could be that the Mustang is the only gasoline-powered pony car still on sale today, with the Chevrolet Camaro and Dodge Challenger both recently ending production.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Used EVs in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 22:45

These Are The Cars With The Best Resale Value In 2025

Cars are one of the most significant purchases people make, but unlike real estate, their value drops quickly.

To help you protect your investment, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu created this ranking highlighting the 13 cars with the best resale value in America, as of 2025.

This means that all of the models shown in this graphic are from the 2022 model year.

The data in this graphic was compiled by U.S. News, which analyzed pricing and resale trends across 2022 model-year vehicles. It measures the average value these cars lost from MSRP after three years, both as a percentage and in dollar terms.

Toyota is #1 in Value Retention

Toyota’s reputation for reliability and affordability continues to pay off in resale value.

The Corolla Cross leads the list, depreciating just 2.63% (-$662) after three years. Other Toyota models such as the 4Runner, C-HR, and Tacoma also perform exceptionally well in this regard.

Earlier this year, Toyota was ranked the fourth most reliable car brand in America, explaining its consistent demand in both the new and used markets.

Japanese Cars Generally Depreciate Slower

Beyond Toyota, other Japanese brands also fare well. Subaru’s Crosstrek comes in fourth with a depreciation rate of just 4.90%, perhaps due to its all-wheel-drive versatility.

Compact cars like the Honda Civic and Nissan Versa also appear in the top 10, offering a compelling mix of efficiency, practicality, and reliability.

The Mustang Endures

Among a sea of Japanese cars, the Ford Mustang stands out as the only American vehicle in this ranking.

With an average depreciation of 5.41%, the Mustang’s enduring design and heritage help it resist the sharp value declines typical of many U.S. models.

Another factor could be that the Mustang is the only gasoline-powered pony car still on sale today, with the Chevrolet Camaro and Dodge Challenger both recently ending production.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Used EVs in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 22:45

The Gold And Silver Boom Is Ominous

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

We’ve not seen days like these for gold and silver since the late 1970s. It is nothing short of spectacular for investors and hoarders of the tried and true metals. People who have kept the faith in the real are being rewarded. For everyone else, these are scary signs concerning what might be coming our way.

For thousands of years, these two metals have been the most valued in human experience. That’s why they became money, which is the good we acquire to buy other goods. Money becomes that because the market selects the good in question. It’s the most marketable commodity.

Gold and silver have always fit the description because they have uniform quality, have a high value per unit of weight, they are durable, and are highly divisible. So they became money in most places in the industrializing world.

I recently bought some old U.S. quarters and dimes, which were made of silver. The price is far above the stated value because the money was devalued, while the specie value kept rising. They are really wonderful to hold and own because they serve as a reminder of what sound money means. They also symbolize economic and financial independence.

It’s been half a century since the age of fiat money dawned. The United States has tried an experiment to make due with a currency that has no underlying integrity. It’s just paper or just digits. This was supposed to be more modern. We turned our backs on the “barbarous relic,” as J.M. Keynes called gold.

The prediction made early in the fiat age was that these metals would fall in value to reflect their industrial uses.

The monetary premium would disappear because they would no longer be money. The intellectuals, not the relics, would be in charge now.

The very opposite happened.

Throughout the 1970s, both gold and silver boomed. It was a massive vote of confidence in the real and an insult to the new elites who promised a better system. It humiliated them.

We seemed to have embarked on another wave of the same. They are both soaring.

Source: Bloomberg

For all the world, this feels like a flight to the real. Central banks want gold and silver. Large investors. Heavily leveraged brokers. Huge institutions. Regular consumers. Everyone is grabbing as much of the stuff as possible right now.

Will there be a correction? Maybe. But this is truly worrisome. It reveals a lack of confidence in our fiat world.

The data right now seems to back up a genuine cause for worry. Inflation nearly disappeared completely once Trump took office. It happened without explanation. Maybe it was a reflection of optimism by business that they could eat more of the increased wholesale costs because big profits were headed their way.

While dramatic things are happening under Trump in many areas—immigration, trade, cuts in the power and reach of the civil service, the end of DEI, new liberties in speech, truth in public health—other realms have not been so great. Spending is out of control, still. The Fed has accelerated quantitative easing yet again. And the Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates.

Meanwhile, inflation is no longer declining. It is increasing.

This is not a good trend. It is ominous for the Trump administration.

If there is one force in the world capable of wiping out all the good that has happened since January 2025, it is inflation. If people cannot pay their bills, all of politics becomes theater. People will blame Trump, rightly or wrongly. This will be on his watch.

There is this long history of governments being unaware of the inflation problem until it is too late. The Weimar central bank of 1920 had no idea that the complete destruction of the German currency was three years into the future. This is because central bankers always and everywhere are convinced that they have matters under control.

They do have things under control until they do not. This is the worry. The Fed right now needs to defy the Trump administration and keep rates high and money tight. They could in fact prompt a recession but this can be mitigated with deregulation and a lower tax burden.

What is not easily fixed is a second wave of inflation. This is precisely what the increase in precious metals prices portends. It is sending a grave signal that markets are unconvinced that the Trump administration has the fiscal and monetary situation under control. Truth is that it does not. The debt problem is getting worse, not better. The red ink seems to flow regardless of whatever DOGE has done and regardless of all the cuts in bureaucracy and agency costs.

Here is the root cause of the gold and silver boom. It represents a flight to safety in anticipation of some possible crisis in the future. But there are other matters too, such as an emerging regional bank crisis. There are lingering issues concerning commercial real estate yet resolved. No one knows for sure how firm or shaky the fiat financial system truly is.

A serious financial crisis could in fact be around the corner. Housing is out of control. Financial markets have gone absolutely bonkers over AI. The leverage in every sector is without precedent. It’s all rooted in a belief that a fiat world is practicable and possible. But is it really? Many people are starting to doubt it.

When you hold physical gold and silver, you feel it and know it. It is the real deal. No permissions. No governments. No authorities. No brokers. It’s secure value and nothing more. It represents independence and freedom.

Remember that we live in a time when trust is lost in nearly everything. It makes sense that this would extend to financial intermediaries too. No one is putting 100 percent of their net wealth into precious metals. Investing is all about hedging risk in many directions, involving many scenarios.

Apparently one of those scenarios that is being entertained among people with big money is the possibility of complete financial and monetary breakdown. The Trump administration needs to pay close attention to this and the signal it is sending. There are ways to fix this problem but it is going to require some very hard decisions.

The markets never tell the perfect truth but they are sending a message that deserves close attention. Gold and silver were supposed to be gone by now but here we are. They are back again and with ferocity.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 22:10

The Gold And Silver Boom Is Ominous

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

We’ve not seen days like these for gold and silver since the late 1970s. It is nothing short of spectacular for investors and hoarders of the tried and true metals. People who have kept the faith in the real are being rewarded. For everyone else, these are scary signs concerning what might be coming our way.

For thousands of years, these two metals have been the most valued in human experience. That’s why they became money, which is the good we acquire to buy other goods. Money becomes that because the market selects the good in question. It’s the most marketable commodity.

Gold and silver have always fit the description because they have uniform quality, have a high value per unit of weight, they are durable, and are highly divisible. So they became money in most places in the industrializing world.

I recently bought some old U.S. quarters and dimes, which were made of silver. The price is far above the stated value because the money was devalued, while the specie value kept rising. They are really wonderful to hold and own because they serve as a reminder of what sound money means. They also symbolize economic and financial independence.

It’s been half a century since the age of fiat money dawned. The United States has tried an experiment to make due with a currency that has no underlying integrity. It’s just paper or just digits. This was supposed to be more modern. We turned our backs on the “barbarous relic,” as J.M. Keynes called gold.

The prediction made early in the fiat age was that these metals would fall in value to reflect their industrial uses.

The monetary premium would disappear because they would no longer be money. The intellectuals, not the relics, would be in charge now.

The very opposite happened.

Throughout the 1970s, both gold and silver boomed. It was a massive vote of confidence in the real and an insult to the new elites who promised a better system. It humiliated them.

We seemed to have embarked on another wave of the same. They are both soaring.

Source: Bloomberg

For all the world, this feels like a flight to the real. Central banks want gold and silver. Large investors. Heavily leveraged brokers. Huge institutions. Regular consumers. Everyone is grabbing as much of the stuff as possible right now.

Will there be a correction? Maybe. But this is truly worrisome. It reveals a lack of confidence in our fiat world.

The data right now seems to back up a genuine cause for worry. Inflation nearly disappeared completely once Trump took office. It happened without explanation. Maybe it was a reflection of optimism by business that they could eat more of the increased wholesale costs because big profits were headed their way.

While dramatic things are happening under Trump in many areas—immigration, trade, cuts in the power and reach of the civil service, the end of DEI, new liberties in speech, truth in public health—other realms have not been so great. Spending is out of control, still. The Fed has accelerated quantitative easing yet again. And the Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates.

Meanwhile, inflation is no longer declining. It is increasing.

This is not a good trend. It is ominous for the Trump administration.

If there is one force in the world capable of wiping out all the good that has happened since January 2025, it is inflation. If people cannot pay their bills, all of politics becomes theater. People will blame Trump, rightly or wrongly. This will be on his watch.

There is this long history of governments being unaware of the inflation problem until it is too late. The Weimar central bank of 1920 had no idea that the complete destruction of the German currency was three years into the future. This is because central bankers always and everywhere are convinced that they have matters under control.

They do have things under control until they do not. This is the worry. The Fed right now needs to defy the Trump administration and keep rates high and money tight. They could in fact prompt a recession but this can be mitigated with deregulation and a lower tax burden.

What is not easily fixed is a second wave of inflation. This is precisely what the increase in precious metals prices portends. It is sending a grave signal that markets are unconvinced that the Trump administration has the fiscal and monetary situation under control. Truth is that it does not. The debt problem is getting worse, not better. The red ink seems to flow regardless of whatever DOGE has done and regardless of all the cuts in bureaucracy and agency costs.

Here is the root cause of the gold and silver boom. It represents a flight to safety in anticipation of some possible crisis in the future. But there are other matters too, such as an emerging regional bank crisis. There are lingering issues concerning commercial real estate yet resolved. No one knows for sure how firm or shaky the fiat financial system truly is.

A serious financial crisis could in fact be around the corner. Housing is out of control. Financial markets have gone absolutely bonkers over AI. The leverage in every sector is without precedent. It’s all rooted in a belief that a fiat world is practicable and possible. But is it really? Many people are starting to doubt it.

When you hold physical gold and silver, you feel it and know it. It is the real deal. No permissions. No governments. No authorities. No brokers. It’s secure value and nothing more. It represents independence and freedom.

Remember that we live in a time when trust is lost in nearly everything. It makes sense that this would extend to financial intermediaries too. No one is putting 100 percent of their net wealth into precious metals. Investing is all about hedging risk in many directions, involving many scenarios.

Apparently one of those scenarios that is being entertained among people with big money is the possibility of complete financial and monetary breakdown. The Trump administration needs to pay close attention to this and the signal it is sending. There are ways to fix this problem but it is going to require some very hard decisions.

The markets never tell the perfect truth but they are sending a message that deserves close attention. Gold and silver were supposed to be gone by now but here we are. They are back again and with ferocity.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 22:10

US Drops To Historic Low In 'Most Powerful Passports' Ranking

The United States has slid off the Top 10 most powerful passports for the first time since Henley & Partners started publishing their index 20 years ago.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, where the U.S. appeared in rank seven last year when it enabled citizens to enter 188 countries without major restrictions, it has now dropped to rank 12, with visa-free entry to just 180.

This is a level of freedom also experienced by passport holders in Malaysia.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The U.S. passport has fallen a long way in the past decade, having appeared in first place in 2014.

In the past year alone, several access changes drove the decline, including a loss of visa-free access to Brazil due to a lack of reciprocity. China then started to offer visa-free travel to several European nations, but notably excluded the U.S. from the change. This was followed by changes from Papua New Guinea and Myanmar, which further eroded the US score while boosting other passports. Newer changes included Somalia’s launch of a new eVisa system and Vietnam’s decision to exclude the U.S. from its latest visa-free additions.

Singapore once more is recognized as having the most powerful passport in the world, with its citizens able to visit 193 countries and territories without a prior visa, according to the Henley Passport Index. South Korea comes in second place, with its citizens able to visit 190 countries, followed by Japan with access to 189 countries, then Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Switzerland with access to 188.

At the other end of the scale, the situation is very different.

For passport holders in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, for example, travel is much more restrictive. The Afghan passport wields the least power of the ranking, with just 24 destinations permissible visa-free. The situation in Syria and Iraq isn’t much better, at 26 and 29 destinations, respectively.

Henley & Partners also created a list called the Henley Openness Index, showing how many other nationalities can enter a given country without a visa.

Despite the U.S. having access to 180 destinations visa-free, it only allows 46 other nationalities to enter without a visa, placing it in rank 77 out of 199 countries and territories.

The Henley Passport Index draws from data from the International Air Transport Authority (IATA), including 199 different passports and 227 different travel destinations.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 21:35

The World Has Woken Up To China's Supply Chain Weaponization: Navarro

Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

The world has now woken up to the consequences of China dominating global supply chains, said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.

“That’s kind of the state of play,” he said at an Oct. 17 event at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The world has fundamentally changed based on what we’ve observed, and the world will not go back to sleep on this.”

The comments note a contrast in global attitude to when he served at the White House during the first Trump administration.

In 2017, Navarro was a key driver directing the administration to conduct a nine-month review of the U.S. defense industrial base. The resulting 146-page report, released in the following October, identified China as “a significant and growing risk to the supply of materials and technologies deemed strategic and critical to U.S. national security.”

When it comes to critical energetic materials for munitions and missiles, the report noted, there’s often “no other source or drop-in replacement material.” And in cases where that option exists, it added, the time and cost can be prohibitive—sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars each.

“My job, literally every day, is to worry about whether we have enough magnets or pharmaceuticals or ball bearings or whatever it is that we need,” Navarro said, citing an old proverb: “The war was lost through a horseshoe.”

“You cannot project power if you surrender production; you cannot deter aggression when your supply chains run through your opponent’s ports; you can’t lead the free world if you can’t make what the free world needs.”

Now, the Chinese regime’s economic aggression is getting harder to overlook.

“My job is a lot easier, because I don’t have to convince anybody anymore.

“And what’s extraordinary to me is that it’s not just in this magnet issue, it’s not just us—it’s the whole world.”

President Donald Trump a week ago unveiled an additional 100 percent tariff on imports from China, citing Beijing’s “aggressive” restrictions on rare earth elements, which are used in virtually all electronic devices, and the regime has a near-monopoly on.

Trump on Friday acknowledged that the high levy is not sustainable but suggested he saw no other option.

“They forced me to do that,” the president said in a Fox Business Network segment aired on Friday, adding that the United States is still seeking a “fair deal.”

“China has ripped us off from day one,” he said.

President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, on Oct. 17, 2025. Tom Brenner/AFP via Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday confirmed he will meet with a Chinese delegation in Malaysia a week from now to prepare for an expected U.S.–China summit in South Korea.

“We hope that China will show the respect that we have shown them, and I am confident that President Trump, because of his relationship with President Xi [Jinping], will be able to get things back on a good course,” he told reporters during a bilateral meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump, speaking alongside Bessent, said the tariffs have put the United States in a strong position and that he anticipates “a deal that will be good for both” countries from the summit.

“But you have to understand, we never got anything from China. It was a one-way street for many years.”

If Beijing refuses to be a reliable trading partner, the United States and allies may have to decouple, Bessent warned earlier.

The European Union has signaled its readiness to coordinate with the United States in countering China’s rare earth stranglehold.

“This is actually an area of common interest with our friends in the U.S. If we stick together we can much better pressure China to act in a fair way,” said Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 21:00

More Americans Experienced Homelessness During Biden's Term

The number of adults experiencing homelessness is on the rise in the United States.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, using data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 771,480 people were living in a state of homelessness in 2024, marking an 18 percent increase from the year before.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Two thirds of these were individuals, while one third were people in families.

Last year saw a particularly worrying rise in the number of families entering homelessness, up 39 percent from 2023, as individuals saw a 9.6 percent rise.

While it remains more common for men to experience homelessness than women in the U.S., at 459,568 men (60 percent) to 302,660 women (40 percent), the gap is narrowing.

According to an analysis by the National Alliance to End Homelessness, between 2015 and 2023, 25,665 women and 56,085 men newly entered homelessness. However, from 2023 to 2024, the number of newly homeless women surged to 52,651, while the number of men rose to 64,408. Put another way, women accounted for 31 percent of newly homeless individuals from 2015 to 2023, but that share rose to 45 percent in the 2023–2024 period, with men making up the remaining 55 percent. Although unsheltered homelessness declined for both men and women between 2023 and 2024, men remained more likely to be unsheltered.

As Covid-era protection programs expired and the cost-of-living crisis hit the country, homelessness numbers rose. At the same time, Covid restrictions on shelter capacity ended, leading to more homeless individuals living in shelters once again.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 20:25

Most Of The Population Of The World Lives In A Nation Where Christians Are Being Persecuted

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

There are about 8 billion people living in our world today, and well over half of them live in a country where Christians are being persecuted.

Of course that would come as quite a shock to the vast majority of the Christians that are living in the western world, because they never hear much about the nightmarish things that are being done to Christians in nations such as China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan and North Korea. Globally, the persecution of Christians is getting worse with each passing year, but since the mainstream media mostly ignores what is going on most of us just assume that it really isn’t a big deal. But the truth is that what is being done to our brothers and sisters all over the world is absolutely horrifying.

There are 1.4 billion people living in China today.  Children under 18 are constitutionally prohibited from attending church, and adults are only allowed to attend state-controlled churches that are very tightly restricted.  Underground churches are very popular, but those that lead those underground churches can be grabbed by the government at any time.  In fact, dozens of Chinese pastors were just rounded up…

Police in China detained dozens of pastors of one of its largest underground churches over the weekend, a church spokesperson and relatives said, in the biggest crackdown on Christians since 2018.

The detentions, which come amid renewed China-U.S. tensions after Beijing dramatically expanded rare earth export controls last week, drew condemnation from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called on Sunday for the pastors’ immediate release.

Pastor Jin Mingri, the founder of Zion Church, an unofficial “house church” not sanctioned by the government, was detained at his home in the southern city of Beihai on Friday evening, said his daughter, Grace Jin, and a church spokesperson, Sean Long.

Sharing the gospel on the Internet is a crime in China, and that is apparently what these pastors are being charged with…

Under the Chinese Communist Party’s absolutist Code of Conduct for Religious Clergy on the Internet, Jin & Co. stand accused of “suspicion of the illegal use of information networks” for the “illegal dissemination of religion information.”

That is, preaching the Gospel online is a crime in Xi’s China; these pastors are now at risk of years-long detention, often without charge or trial, and likely abuse if not torture while locked up.

India also has a population of 1.4 billion, and Christianity has become very popular there in recent decades.

Unfortunately, those that do choose to go to church in India do so with the realization that they could be attacked by Hindu extremists at any moment…

Hindu extremists in central India ransacked a church’s worship building, burned Bibles and assaulted every member, causing one to lose consciousness, sources said.

In Chhattisgarh state’s Dhamtari District, the Hindu nationalists attacked during the independent Penial Prayer Fellowship’s worship service in Borsi village, said Pastor Wakish Sahu, who leads the church along with his 57-year-old father, Mannohan Sahu.

“They forcibly entered the church, disrupted the worship service and were carrying wooden rods and shouting slogans like ‘Jai Shri Ram’ [Hail lord Rama],” Pastor Wakish Sahu told Morning Star News.

Threatening the Christians, the attackers told them to stop gathering for worship, he said. They broke all the chairs, fans and musical instruments, then collected all of the Christian literature along with the Bibles and burned them.

Sadly, this was not an isolated incident.

In the state of Manipur alone, literally hundreds of churches have been burned to the ground during the past couple of years…

Tomas (not his real name) is a church minister in Manipur, Northeast India. He had teary eyes when he recalled what happened on May 3, 2023.

“I have never seen such violence in my lifetime,” he said. “They systematically ransacked our places. That first night, they burnt down a church nearby. The sky turned red by flames.”

A few months later, it was reported that 250 churches of different denominations had been burnt. For several weeks, the manhunt continued.

Over 100 people died. The trauma is unimaginable, especially among women and children.

Indonesia has a total population of 283 million people, and 220 million of them are Muslims.

Christians are very much in the minority, and Islamic extremist groups “have encouraged and engaged in violence against Christians”…

Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world, with a total of more than 220 million Muslims, or about 13 percent of the world’s Muslim population. While most Indonesian Muslims practice an animistic and superstitious version of Islam known as “folk” Islam, proponents of Islamic extremism have encouraged and engaged in violence against Christians. The wickedness of these attacks has led many Muslims to question Islam and to be more open to the gospel.

There are 232 million precious people that live in Nigeria, and I recently wrote an entire article about the genocide of Christians that is currently taking place in that nation.

Radical Islamists regularly attack Christian communities, and the death toll has been catastrophic…

According to a report issued in August by the International Society for Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law (Intersociety), an African nongovernmental group that documents human rights violations, in the first seven months of this year alone, more than 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria.

Christians of various denominations and moderate Muslims regularly die at the hands of Boko Haram, Fulani militants and other violent actors.

Numbers vary and are difficult to verify, but between 2009 and 2023 in Nigeria, Intersociety reports at least 52,000 Christians killed, 18,500 abducted and unlikely to have survived, and more than 20,000 churches and Christian schools attacked.

Throughout the Middle East, if a Muslim converts to Christianity it can be considered blasphemy.

One of the countries where blasphemy can result in a death sentence is Pakistan.  251 million people live in that nation, and those that are already Christians are often given the most degrading jobs…

In predominantly Muslim Pakistan, blasphemy laws are egregiously used to target and punish Christians for following Jesus. Christ followers are often discriminated against and not given equal opportunities in employment. Jobs like sewer maintenance and street sweepers are typically reserved for Christians, and believers are jailed for their faith if they are found to have violated the nation’s strict blasphemy laws.

Afghanistan has a population of 42 million, and it is right next door to Pakistan.

Ever since the Taliban took control again, things have gotten much worse for Afghan believers…

For Christians who converted from Islam, publicly affirming their faith in Afghanistan has always been in danger. Since the return of the Taliban on August 15, 2021, it is even more dangerous. The Taliban regime believes that formally converting from Islam to Christianity deserves the death penalty.

Their threats are fierce. Christians in Afghanistan are forced to keep their faith underground. They fear detention, torture or even a death sentence.

Iran borders both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It has a population of 91 million, and converting to Christianity is strictly forbidden…

In Iran, the Christian faith is tolerated only to a certain extent, primarily among historical Armenian and Assyrian communities. However, converting to Christianity from Islam is considered apostasy and can lead to severe punishment, including death. Christians often face arbitrary arrests and are prohibited from sharing their faith with Muslims.

I couldn’t conclude this article without including North Korea.

It has a population of 26 million, and the Christian faith is not tolerated at all.

In fact, if you are discovered to be a Christian, you and your entire family could be shipped off to a concentration camp where you will be worked until you drop dead…

If your Christian faith is discovered in North Korea, you could be killed on the spot. If you aren’t killed, you will be deported to a labour camp and treated as a political criminal. You will be punished with years of hard labour that few survive. And it’s not only you who will be punished: North Korean authorities are likely to round up your extended family and punish them too, even if your family members aren’t Christians.

There is no church life in North Korea. It’s impossible to gather for worship or prayer, and even secret worship and prayer is at great risk. Official spies could inform on you, if they have any indication that you are a Christian, and so could your neighbours or teachers.

So far in this article I have discussed 8 countries that have a total population of 3.7 billion, and I haven’t even mentioned dozens of other countries where Christianity is either illegal or very highly restricted.

Here in the United States, we are still free to worship as we please, but our moral standards are eroding at a very rapid pace…

Only 43% of these churchgoers now call themselves “pro-life,” down sharply from 63% in 2023. When it came to the traditional (biblical) view of family, 46% believe it is a marriage between one man and one woman with children. However, that number is even lower (34%) among Gen Z.

The three groups with the strongest support for the biblical idea of family were Asian believers (55%), Pentecostal members (56%), and born-again Christians (59%).

The study also found that about 51% believe the Bible’s message on abortion is straightforward, a drop from 65% in 2023.

If we are willing to compromise this much now, how will we fare when we are faced with real persecution during the years ahead?

As I have repeatedly warned my readers, we need to be preparing believers in the western world for what is coming.

The persecution that Christians in other countries must endure has made them strong.

Meanwhile, western believers have gotten very soft.

We better toughen up fast, because perilous times are rapidly approaching.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 19:50

Engineering Desperation

'Camus' writes on X that in a stark analysis, journalist Whitney Webb dissects the fundamental mechanism of control being rolled out globally: the desperate need for our consent.

The entire digital architecture - from government-backed CBDCs and stablecoins to the linchpin of Digital ID - is designed to fail without one crucial element: a captive user base.

They cannot build the digital prison if no one enters voluntarily.

Their strategy, Webb warns, is a classic “carrot and stick.”

The allure of convenience and financial incentives is the “carrot” used to lure the masses in.

Once dependency is established, “out comes the stick.”

The ultimate goal is to engineer desperation.

By attacking our wealth and controlling wealth transfers, they create a population fixated on survival.

When you are desperate, rational thought erodes.

The hierarchy of needs is weaponized; you stop worrying about civil liberties or constitutional rights when you are fighting to survive.

This is the core of the problem-reaction-solution paradigm. They create the crisis, anticipate our fearful reaction, and then offer their pre-planned, liberty-eroding “solution.”

In a stark analysis, journalist Whitney Webb dissects the fundamental mechanism of control being rolled out globally: the desperate need for our consent.

The entire digital architecture—from government-backed CBDCs and stablecoins to the linchpin of Digital ID—is designed to… pic.twitter.com/bd4nOHljDB

— Camus (@newstart_2024) October 17, 2025

The critical question Webb leaves us with is not how to fight back later, but how we can insulate ourselves and our communities now - to refuse the reaction and collapse their solution before it ever begins.

h/t 'Camus'

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 19:15

Nearly 7 In 10 American Adults Meet New Definition Of Obese: Study

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Almost 70 percent of American adults are considered obese under a revamped definition of obesity, according to a peer-reviewed study published in the JAMA Network Open and conducted by researchers affiliated with the Harvard Medical School and the Massachusetts General Hospital.

An overweight woman sits at the water's edge as she enjoys the hot weather on the sea front in Bournemouth, England, on April 14, 2007. Matt Cardy/Getty Images

Traditionally, obesity was defined as having an elevated body mass index (BMI), calculated by dividing a person’s weight by their height. Earlier this year, the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology published a new definition of obesity, which incorporated anthropometrics, which include body measurements such as waist circumference, waist to height ratio, and waist to hip ratio, in addition to BMI, the study said.

An individual is now classified as obese under three conditions—if they have an elevated BMI plus at least one elevated anthropometric measure or a BMI greater than 40; or at least two elevated anthropometric measures irrespective of BMI; or excess body fat, according to the study.

Researchers analyzed the U.S.-based All of Us database to determine the prevalence of obesity under the new definition.

Of the 301,026 participants aged 18–80 years included in the analysis, 128,992 individuals (42.9 percent) were deemed to be obese under the traditional BMI-based criteria. But under the new definition, 206,361 individuals, or 68.6 percent, were considered obese. Obesity was found to be more prevalent with older age.

“We already thought we had an obesity epidemic, but this is astounding,” said co-first author Lindsay Fourman, according to an Oct. 15 report by The Harvard Gazette, the official news website for Harvard University.

“With potentially 70 percent of the adult population now considered to have excess fat, we need to better understand what treatment approaches to prioritize.”

According to the study, 78,047 participants (25.9 percent) who were not classified as obese under the traditional definition were reclassified as having obesity under the anthropometrics-only criteria. Among these individuals, 22.3 percent had a BMI traditionally classified as underweight or normal, with the remaining in the overweight category.

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology guideline also introduced the concept of clinical and preclinical obesity. Clinical obesity refers to people who have obesity-associated organ dysfunction and/or physical limitation, while preclinical obesity pertains to individuals without such obesity-related issues.

Under the new definition, 36.1 percent of overall participants had clinical obesity, researchers found. Individuals with BMI plus anthropometric obesity were found to have a higher proportion of clinical obesity.

“We found that approximately half of participants classified as having obesity under the new definition also exhibited organ dysfunction and/or physical limitation consistent with clinical obesity,” said the study.

“Our analyses suggest that the new definition of clinical obesity appropriately designates individuals with obesity who are at the highest long-term risk of incident diabetes, cardiovascular events, and mortality.”

The study was funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health, American Heart Association–Harold Amos Medical Research Faculty Development Program, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the Robert A. Winn Excellence in Clinical Trials Award Program from the Bristol Myers Squibb Foundation.

One of the researchers revealed conflicts of interest, having received grant support and personal fees from pharma company Chiesi Farmaceutici. Another researcher received fees from Exavir Therapeutics and Marathon Asset Management, as well as grant support from Kowa Pharmaceuticals America Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc., and Viiv Healthcare.

“We have always recognized the limitations of BMI as a single marker for obesity because it doesn’t take into account body fat distribution,” said senior author of the study Steven Grinspoon.

“Seeing an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in this new group of people with obesity, who were not considered to have obesity before, brings up interesting questions about obesity medications and other therapeutics.”

Obesity in United States

According to a January 2024 post by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obesity is a “common, serious, and costly chronic disease” in the United States. The agency estimated that one in five children and two in five adults in the country are obese.

Obesity can be particularly harsh for children, as it can lead to numerous health conditions, such as type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure. As for adults, people with obesity have a higher risk of developing several diseases such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers.

The CDC attributed the prevalence of obesity to factors such as fewer than one in 10 people eating the recommended daily amount of vegetables, only one in four adults fully meeting their physical activity requirements, and less than one in four youths getting sufficient aerobic physical activity.

According to the agency’s 2023 Adult Obesity Prevalence Maps for 48 states, the District of Columbia, and three territories, all locations had an obesity prevalence of higher than 20 percent.

The highest obesity prevalence was in the Midwest at 36 percent, closely followed by the South at 34.7 percent, the CDC said.

“Three states (Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia) had an obesity prevalence of 40 percent or greater.”

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Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 18:40

Supreme Court Won't Exempt California Schoolchild From Vaccination Mandate

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 17 rejected an advocacy group’s emergency application to allow a religious parent to opt her child out of California’s mandatory vaccination policy for schoolchildren.

The court’s decision in We The Patriots USA v. Ventura Unified School District took the form of an unsigned order.

No justices dissented. The court did not explain its ruling.

The applicant, We The Patriots, is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Caldwell, Idaho.

California’s position is that its vaccination mandate keeps children healthy and prevents the spread of dangerous illnesses.

The group filed an emergency application last month with the Supreme Court on behalf of a woman identified as Jane Doe, who is seeking an exemption for her son from the vaccination mandate based on his personal beliefs.

The school district initially granted the son an exemption based on his personal beliefs, but later revoked it. The school district has barred the son from attending school for the time being. His last full day of school attendance was in December 2024.

Doe applied for the exemption based on her understanding that the vaccines required by state law are “researched, developed, tested, and/or produced using cell lines artificially developed from aborted fetuses and contain products that could result in harm to a human recipient,” according to the application.

The Constitution’s First Amendment does not allow “California to exile children from public school because their parents seek to raise them in accordance with their religious beliefs,” the application states, citing the Supreme Court’s June ruling in Mahmoud v. Taylor.

In that case, the high court ruled for parents in Maryland who, for religious reasons, wanted to opt their young children out of school storybooks that promote LGBT lifestyles.

“That principle protects parents’ right to opt their children out of LGBTQ+ school curricula. It also protects parents’ right to opt their children out of an act that would render them complicit in abortion,” the application reads.

On Sept. 9, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied the group’s request to pause an Aug. 15 order by U.S. District Judge André Birotte. The district judge rejected the group’s request for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to suspend the vaccination policy.

We The Patriots had filed with the district court on May 22, asking it to block the enforcement of section 120335 of the California Health and Safety Code against the plaintiffs and other parents and children whose sincere religious beliefs prevent them from receiving the required immunizations.

That state law states that school districts in California may “not unconditionally admit any person as a pupil” unless he or she has been immunized against diphtheria, influenza, measles, mumps, whooping cough, polio, rubella, tetanus, hepatitis B, chickenpox, and “any other disease deemed appropriate” by the state public health department.

The district court previously rejected a prior application for a temporary restraining order on June 17, finding that the plaintiffs failed to show that they would face irreparable harm without such an order, according to Birotte.

The school district filed a brief Oct. 1, urging the Supreme Court to dismiss the emergency application.

The case is unusual in that the applicant asked the high court to halt California’s school immunization requirement and recognize a new constitutional entitlement to attend a specific school, not only for the child concerned, but “for an undefined set of ‘all similarly situated’” persons.

“They press that suite of extraordinary remedies on a thin paper record, without an evidentiary hearing or a developed preliminary injunction ruling. That is the litigation equivalent of pulling the fire alarm and asking the building to be emptied before anyone has confirmed there is smoke.”

The district court and Ninth Circuit were right to rule against the applicant, the brief said.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to We The Patriots’s attorney, Cameron Atkinson of Harwinton, Connecticut, and the school district’s attorney, David Adida of Santa Monica, California.

No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/18/2025 - 16:20