Individual Economists

'The Mad & The Free': Can American Society Debate Its Way Out Of Psychosis?

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'The Mad & The Free': Can American Society Debate Its Way Out Of Psychosis?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Psychodrama

“A sane society cannot debate its way out of psychosis. It must diagnose the patient with lethal precision and restore the ancient boundary between the mad and the free.”

- LHGrey on X

When you watch video of the shenanigans at the Delaney Hall ICE building in Newark, NJ, you must suspect you’re seeing a hopped-up political vaudeville act. Freaky as the “protesters” may be — with their tatts and piercings, gummi bear hair color, rolls of blubber, perpetually hoisted cell phones, drums, whistles, and pitiful umbrellas — they are no less actors than Jacob Elordi and Sydney Sweeney out in Hollywood.

New Jersey State Police Cavalry to the Rescue!

The Delaney Hall mobbers are allegedly paid by someone or some entity. You’d think the authorities and the news media would be racing to find out who that is. But, so far, no official announcements and, wouldn’t you know, The New York Times did not even report on doings over there in its Monday morning edition.

Independent reporter Nick Sortor, undercover in Antifi garb, discovered their “craft services” tent adjacent to the action in the industrial wasteland where Delaney Hall stands next to the reeking Passaic River.

The tent was full of riot gear, tactical supplies, snacks, energy drinks, hot meals (lasagna!) delivered on the hour, first aid supplies, and other “protester necessities,” as if the siege of Delaney Hall was a major Hollywood production shoot.

Anyway, after days of freaks and geeks playacting “oppression” at Delaney Hall, the New Jersey riot cops showed up, including the mounted cavalry, and stuffed several busloads with arrested “protesters,” many of them from out-of-state. Did they bother to interview the folks manning the craft services tent to inquire what organization was paying for all the merch? Isn’t it about time for whoever is signing those checks to get indicted for fomenting and abetting insurrection?

The Democratic Party is reduced to psychodrama, and the nature of psychodrama is that it’s about nothing — nothing real, at least. It’s all concocted sound-and-fury to give the (false) impression that some injustice is occurring. In the case of Delaney Hall, a holding facility for illegal border-jumpers awaiting deportation, the alleged injustice is “unsanitary conditions, inadequate food, poor medical care, and physical and psychological torture.” In reality, conditions there are arguably better than the average Motel 8. Many of the inmates are murderers and rapists, of course, the worst of the worst.

You might suppose that the objective of the melodrama at Delaney Hall was to create another martyr a la Renée Nicole Good and Alex Pretti out in Minneapolis this past winter.

Those two unfortunate dupes were induced by the party script to FAFO, leading to their tragic and pointless deaths. Alas, the incidents failed to incite the sort of national uprising that the Lefty-left will not stop seeking.

And now summer is nearly here and (the old song goes) “the time is right for dancing in the streets.” Or, rather, fighting in the streets.

The time is also right for the FBI and the DOJ to shut down the funny money supply line for it, and it’s hard to figure now how they might fail to do that.

The Delaney Hall arrests give them a vast opportunity to debrief the players, find out exactly how these stunts are being organized.

To see exactly how much nothing the Democratic Party stands for, you need only get a load of the California primary campaigns, with the election to be held tomorrow (Tuesday June 2).

For instance, Tom Steyer, the hedge funder running for governor, staged an event Friday to support transgender track star AB Hernandez, who has been dominating in the 2025 and 2026 California state women’s track championships by notable margins.

AB Hernandez is a biological male subject to extreme cosmetic and hormonal procedures to impersonate a female, but it does not alter the fact that he is a biological male and he is engaged in impersonation.

Men in women’s sports is increasingly a losing issue in American politics.

Twenty-seven states have enacted laws against it.

The International Olympic Committee has banned biological men competing in women’s events (and the Olympics are coming to LA in 2028). Yet, there is candidate Tom Steyer on-screen trying to sell himself on the most nakedly reality-optional issue-of-the-day.

Sheer psychodrama.

Steyer’s rival, Xavier Bacerra, is arguably more pathetic and idiotic. As California Attorney General from 2017 to 2021 he allowed massive public services and campaign finance fraud to blossom across the state. Then, as HHS Secretary under “Joe Biden,” he presided over the Covid-19 fraud and let hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrant children to go missing during the four-year-long open border operation. We’re talking world-class incompetence.

Down in Los Angeles, the current mayor, Karen Bass, is so devoid of accomplishment that she’s reduced to merely smiling like a Cheshire Cat as she goes through the final motions of the contest. Her campaign slogan is “Let’s Do This Together.” Do what? Run Los Angeles further off a cliff? Outsider Spencer Pratt has crept up to about even with Mayor Bass in the polls. His prospects remain pretty dim, though hopes are high for him. Similarly, outsider Steve Hilton in the race for governor. The question to be answered Tuesday: has reality-optional politics finally run out of mojo in California? And will that be “roll credits” for the Democratic Party?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 16:20

May Auto Demand "Stronger Than Expectations", Deutsche Says

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May Auto Demand "Stronger Than Expectations", Deutsche Says

In a preview of May U.S. auto sales, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu and his team said industry demand appears to be holding up better than expected. They estimate the seasonally adjusted annual selling rate (SAAR) reached 15.9 million units during the month, modestly above last year's pace of roughly 15.7 million. While total vehicle sales are projected to be slightly lower than a year ago, the comparison is skewed by one fewer selling day in May 2026.

After adjusting for that calendar effect, daily sales rates improved by more than 2%, suggesting underlying consumer demand remains relatively healthy.

We expect May US light vehicle SAAR to come in at 15.9m units. This compares to ~15.7m last year. Absolute sales are expected to be up MoM at ~1.453m units (vs. April at ~1.380m), but down YoY from ~1.475m in 2025. The absolute YoY change doesn't necessarily indicate a significant downgrade in consumers health but is reflective of one less selling day in 2026 resulting in a daily sales rate that actually rose ~2.3%.

The firm's dealer and channel checks indicate that automakers largely maintained pricing discipline throughout the month. Average transaction prices continued to edge higher both sequentially and year over year, reflecting a relatively stable pricing environment. Incentive activity was mixed, however.

Ford increased promotional spending through its employee pricing program, a strategy similar to one used last year, contributing to a notable rise in incentives. Industry-wide incentive levels remained significantly above year-ago levels, driven primarily by Ford and Stellantis, although incentives declined modestly compared with April.

According to Deutsche Bank's conversations with industry participants, geopolitical developments in the Middle East have not yet had a meaningful impact on vehicle demand:

This month, thus far, is stronger than our coming in expectations. Based on our conversations, the Middle East conflict appears to have little impact yet on light vehicle sales. Powertrain mix also appears relatively unchanged despite elevated oil prices. Overall we maintain our full year at 15.9m, still somewhat more conservative than the automaker's latest forecasts.

Higher fuel prices also do not appear to be changing consumer purchasing behavior, as the mix of vehicle powertrains sold has remained largely unchanged.

Looking ahead, Yu and his team left their full-year U.S. light vehicle sales forecast unchanged at 15.9 million units. That outlook remains somewhat below the forecasts recently provided by several automakers, reflecting Deutsche Bank's more cautious stance on the industry's trajectory through the remainder of the year.

On the company level, Ford's aggressive incentive activity continues to stand out, particularly in the full-size pickup segment, where incentives on the F-150 increased materially during the month. General Motors maintained relatively stable pricing and incentive levels, while Stellantis continued to offer some of the highest incentives in the industry despite modest sequential moderation.

Overall, Deutsche Bank views the May sales environment as constructive, with demand trends remaining resilient and pricing conditions generally supportive.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 15:40

10 Examples That Show That The Chaos & Lawlessness In The Streets Of America Is Totally Out Of Control

Zero Hedge -

10 Examples That Show That The Chaos & Lawlessness In The Streets Of America Is Totally Out Of Control

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

We aren’t supposed to talk about the social decay that is running rampant all around us. Instead, we are supposed to just shut our mouths and pretend that everything is just fine. But that isn’t the truth. Homelessness is the worst that it has ever been, more Americans are addicted to drugs than ever before, gang members outnumber the police, women are being sexually assaulted in staggering numbers, thieves are having a field day and street violence is seemingly everywhere.

Of course if crimes never get reported they never show up in the official numbers, do they?

We know that there have been instances where the crime numbers have been purposely manipulated in order to make local politicians look better.

But no matter how much corrupt officials monkey with the numbers, nobody can deny the reality of what is going on in our neighborhoods.

The following are 10 examples that show that the chaos and lawlessness in the streets of America is totally out of control…

#1 In Seattle, people living near Aurora Avenue have put up “large homemade barricades” in a desperate attempt to keep the rising tide of lawlessness away from their homes…

Residents in a troubled Seattle neighborhood have begun erecting large homemade barricades across residential streets after a surge of gun violence left many fearing for their safety.

Neighbors living near Aurora Avenue say repeated shootings, alleged prostitution activity and late-night chaos have pushed the community to a breaking point.

Following another burst of gunfire over the weekend, frustrated residents took matters into their own hands by physically blocking off nearby roads in an effort to keep traffic and suspected criminal activity out of the area, Fox 13 reported.

If I was living in that area of Seattle, I would probably take even more drastic actions.

Personally, I don’t understand how anyone can possibly feel safe now that the entire area has turned into a war zone

The latest escalation occurred around 4 a.m. Saturday near Aurora Avenue North and North 98th Street. Seattle Police responded to the scene after neighbors reported hearing more than 30 gunshots.

Surveillance video from a nearby property captured the encounter, where several men can be seen ducking behind cars and returning fire.

Rudy Pantoja, who works for the property owner, said they spent the weekend patching bullet holes in the side of the building.

#2 Conditions have gotten so much worse in New York City in recent months. For example, a running gun battle in the Bronx resulted in a 5-year-old girl getting grazed by a stray bullet…

Terrifying video captured a reckless gang gun battle on a Bronx street on Wednesday that left a 5-year-old girl grazed by a stray slug to the head.

Footage released by the NYPD shows three suspected ganbangers firing off several rounds as they run from the scene on Southern Avenue in Longwood — with at least two shooting blindly over their shoulders.

The broad-daylight shooting between two warring gangs unfolded along Southern Boulevard in Longwood around 5:40 p.m. Wednesday, sending innocent bystanders scattering for cover, sources said.

#3 Portland was once one of the most beautiful cities in the entire world, but now it has become a rotting, decaying, drug-infested hellhole. One homeless woman that is apparently deeply addicted to drugs is regularly dragged away by a group of unknown men and brutally sexually assaulted

Citizen journalist Kevin Dahlgren and other locals told the Daily Mail that the middle-aged woman is regularly accosted by a group of unknown men.

They said she is usually taken to a nearby motel or apartment, where she is forced to shower, before being subjected to horrific sexual assaults.

Portland residents, specifically those in the Old Town area of the city, who know the woman said the group attacks can go on for days before she is dumped back on the streets.

#4 Over the past few years, chaotic “teen takeovers” during which vast hordes of young people run completely wild have become a regular occurrence in major cities all over the nation…

Have you seen the new social media-generated phenomenon, Teen Takeovers? A Teen Takeover is when a riot of teens, in numbers overwhelming to local police, floods a local prearranged meeting through social media to wreak havoc.

Youth run wild, defying authority, starting fires, ramming police cars, smashing windows, robbing stores, doing anything and everything that comes to their minds that is against the law and societal order. It is a young human explosion of anger, rebellion, organized chaos, destruction of property, breaking laws, theft, and bodily injury.

Those involved say they aren’t looking to really hurt anybody. They only aim at destroying their little part of Western Civilization as a protest against what they have been indoctrinated to believe are rampant injustices.

#5 In Detroit, a couple of “teen takeovers” on Memorial Day weekend started out peacefully but quickly turned violent

A troubling trend is growing across Detroit and the country— large “teen takeover” gatherings that erupt into violence, and Memorial Day weekend brought two more incidents to the forefront.

Massive crowds flooded Peterson Park on Memorial Day for one of the so-called teen takeovers. Neighbors say it started out peacefully, but fights broke out and police moved in to disperse the crowds.

One neighbor, who did not want to be identified, said the situation has him worried about what comes next.

#6 In Chicago, 5 police officers were hit by a vehicle during a “teen takeover” on Memorial Day weekend…

Mayor Brandon Johnson will face questions on Wednesday following two “teen takeover” incidents that resulted in dozens of arrests and left several officers injured.

Over the holiday weekend, two large gatherings devolved into chaos.

The first occurred early Sunday morning in the 1200 block of South Loomis Street on the Near West Side.

During that incident, five Chicago police officers were hit by a car while trying to disperse the gathering.

#7 We live at a time when advertising what you believe can literally get you killed. Earlier this month, a 69-year-old man in Southern California was literally beaten to death right in front of his home which was brightly adorned with pro-Trump decorations…

A Southern California man known for his patriotic and pro-Trump home decorations died after he was assaulted outside his house, authorities said.

Kerry Sheron, 69, died Sunday night after the assault Wednesday in Escondido, north of San Diego, the city’s police department said in a statement Monday.

Thomas Caleb Butler, 32, was arrested last week on charges of attempted murder, elder abuse, criminal threats and battery in connection with Sheron’s death. He is being held without bail, jail records show.

#8 Wearing the wrong clothing can also get you attacked. In Los Angeles, a Jewish man was recently viciously assaulted as he was walking home from his local synagogue…

The incident itself occurred shortly before 10 p.m. on April 27, officials said, when James allegedly followed the victim in a van as he walked through an alley in the Pico-Robertson neighborhood, jumped out and suddenly attacked him “without provocation.”

KTLA obtained video surveillance footage of the altercation and learned that the 32-year-old victim was walking home from the Adas Torah synagogue while wearing traditional Jewish clothing when the suspect approached in the van.

“I just didn’t have a good feeling,” the victim, who requested anonymity, recalled. “I make eye contact with [the male driver], try to make a face [that says], ‘Is everything cool?’ And then he just jumped out of his car like a lion.”

As the suspect walked to his car, he allegedly yelled “Free Palestine!” the victim added.

#9 Be very careful when using online marketplaces. One man that advertised two Corvette seats for sale on Facebook Marketplace probably never imagined that the man that he planned to sell them to would end up killing him

A Michigan man convicted of murder in the case of a Facebook Marketplace sale that went wrong was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole on Monday.

Omar Brogdon, 31, of Detroit, received his sentence from Judge Khary L. Hanible at the Genesee County Circuit Court in Flint, MLive reported. In April, he had been convicted of felony murder, second-degree murder, armed robbery and three counts of using a firearm while committing a felony for a deadly shooting.

#10 Domestic violence has become a raging epidemic in our day and time. An incident that recently occurred in Arizona was particularly shocking

A crazed Arizona mom gunned down her two children in a shocking murder-suicide after earlier shooting a woman who’d been with her husband at a bar, according to cops.

Andrea Clarice Davis, 38, drove to Tailgaters Sports Bar & Grill in Glendale just after midnight Monday and shot at her husband of 12 years, Nolan Davis, 39, and a 36-year-old woman he was with outside, police told AZFamily.

The other woman, who has not been identified, was shot in the back of the head as she got in her car to flee, according to Glendale police spokesperson Jose Santiago.

Andrea Davis then drove home and texted her husband to say she was going to hurt their two young children — sending him a horrific image of one of them bleeding from the head, police said.

When I was growing up, the crazy people were solidly in the minority.

But now it seems like the crazy people are in the majority.

Perhaps that is because well over 50 percent of the population is hooked on either legal or illegal drugs these days.

Our society is coming apart at the seams all around us, but we keep being told that everything is okay.

Of course the truth is that everything is most certainly not okay.

Chaos and lawlessness are raging all around us, and conditions just continue to get even worse year after year.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 15:05

Transcript: Remembering Jonathan Clements with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Remembering Jonathan Clements with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Masters in Business: Remembering Jonathan Clements
with Jason Zweig and Bill Bernstein


Barry Ritholtz 
(00:00:16):  This weekend on the podcast, I get to sit down with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein, remembering their friend Jonathan Clements. Jonathan was a Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist and author for almost 20 years. He’s beloved by people in the industry. In many ways, Jonathan has done as much as anybody to push the idea of indexing—at least anybody since Jack Bogle. I thought this conversation, despite the fact that we know Jonathan received a terminal diagnosis and we already know how it ended, was interesting, uplifting, and fascinating. I think you will too. With no further ado, my remembrance of Jonathan Clements with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein.

Jason Zweig  (00:01:05):  Thanks, Barry. Glad to be here.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:01:07):  So let’s start at the beginning. I want to talk a little bit about who Jonathan was. We’ll talk about his two most recent books, including the one coming out in May of 2026. But how did each of you meet Jonathan? What were your early impressions of him like? Let’s start with you, Jason.

Jason Zweig  (00:01:25):  You want me to go first? So Jonathan and I met the third week of March in 1987 when I joined Forbes Magazine. He was already there, and we almost instantly became good friends. I’d say we probably went out to lunch at least twice a week for the next four years—certainly every Wednesday, fish cakes and spaghetti at the New Courtney on 14th Street in Manhattan, which I want to say was $4.95.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:02:06):  The Forbes office was right over there—was it 18th and Fifth?

Jason Zweig  (00:02:11):  Fifth, yeah.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:02:12):  All the Berger eggs were there. The whole building was kind of uniquely—

Jason Zweig  (00:02:16):  Situated. Fifth Avenue and 12th Street. Very close. And Jonathan had a really unusual sparkle. He always had a twinkle in his eye. He thought almost everything was funny—because, of course, almost everything is funny if you think about it the right way. He might be writing about some con artist who was stealing people’s money, or some mutual fund that was overcharging people, but he always found the humor in the situation. I loved that about him. We were friends from that moment on, ever since.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:03:07):  Bill, how’d you meet Jonathan?

Bill Bernstein  (00:03:09):  I met him a little later. It wasn’t until about the mid-nineties, when I was still practicing medicine and finding my feet in finance. I was starting to write, and I did what any aspiring financial writer does, which is you start chatting up financial journalists. He responded, and he started quoting me in the Journal. For many years I was just a source, until maybe the late aughts or early 2010s. Then we became personal friends after that. And he did think everything was funny. He just had such a pleasing personality—a high hedonic set point. He was always in a good mood, and he always thought everything was funny, which is a fabulous combination. The other personal characteristic that powered his career, I think, was that he was willing to talk about the hard things in his life: his struggles with money, his divorces, and of course, in the end, his impending demise. It was those three things together that really made him such a unique financial journalist and human being.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:04:28):  When I was preparing for this, I learned a lot of things I was wholly unaware of, including a quote from you, Bill: that you owe your entire career in investments to Jonathan’s work. You have to explain how a neurologist in North Bend, Oregon ended up having a career change thanks to a personal finance journalist.

Bill Bernstein  (00:04:53):  Well, I happened to live in a country that doesn’t have a functioning social safety net. So I realized I was going to have to invest on my own if I wanted to survive my retirement financially. I approached it the way I thought anybody with scientific training would: I read the peer-reviewed literature, the basic textbooks, and then I collected data and built models. When I was done with all that, I actually had something that was useful to small investors—and in a couple of instances, even to professional investors. So I started writing about it. The internet came to my community about that time, and I put my material on the web, and Jonathan picked it up. He started quoting me in the Wall Street Journal, and that opened the door to getting my books published, and also to a financial advisory business. Like a lot of things in a complex life, it was just serendipity—one thing leading to another.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:05:56):  Really interesting. Jason, you’re with Jonathan at Forbes, and then together at the Wall Street Journal. I’m struck by 1987—not only the year of the great crash, but long before indexing was the dominant intellectual framework, certainly in terms of money flows into mutual funds and ETFs. What was it about Jonathan’s writing that seemed to reshape a lot of the conversation about investing?

Jason Zweig  (00:06:35):  I don’t think this is an exaggeration: more than any other individual except Jack Bogle, Jonathan put index funds front and center for American investors. He realized very early on that active management, in the aggregate, was not earning its keep—it was charging more than it could possibly deliver for clients. Jonathan realized there’s an alternative, and he was going to keep telling people that’s what they should do. He must have written two or three hundred columns telling people to buy index funds. A lot of his readers, particularly professional readers, hated that, because he was essentially saying, don’t hire them—hire Vanguard, or State Street, or BlackRock.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:07:48):  BlackRock. The thing about the big three—the three biggest mutual fund and ETF companies today—is they really derive the lion’s share of their assets from index. Certainly half at BlackRock, and probably over half at Vanguard.

Jason Zweig  (00:08:04):  And the math is not hard to do. Investors have saved hundreds of billions of dollars in superfluous management fees by moving from active to passive investing. Jonathan deserves a lot of credit for that. I can attest, coming to it two or three years behind him, to the amount of hate mail and hate phone calls I used to get. It’s not easy to tell people they should not have a right to make as good a living as they have been. They don’t like hearing that. But if it’s in the best interest of the larger part of your audience, that’s the message you have to deliver. That’s the choice Jonathan made, really before any other investing or personal finance journalist in the country. And once he made that choice, he would not be moved.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:09:13):  Go ahead, Bill.

Bill Bernstein  (00:09:15):  Fortune favors the prepared. What prepared Jonathan for that was that from about 1990 to 1994, he covered mutual fund managers. And boy, that’s an awful sandbox to have to play in. How do you get into that sandbox? You take a lot of risk and you get lucky, and going forward the track record is not so good. He saw that often enough that it drove him to the conclusion Jason was just talking about.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:09:46):  I think it was Professor French at Dartmouth, of Fama-French fame, who said it takes about 20 years to figure out if a fund manager is skillful or lucky. Two or three years of returns certainly doesn’t tell us anything.

Bill Bernstein  (00:10:01):  Here’s one example that stays in my memory: if you have a hedge fund manager who can beat the market by 5% per year, and the standard deviation of stocks is 20% per year, when you grind through the statistics, it takes 64 years to get statistical significance.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:10:20):  Wow, that’s quite amazing. He called his own advocacy for index funds an obsession that some readers found irritating. When I read that line, I thought of your quote: your job is to write the same column week after week after week, but in a way that neither your readers nor your editors figure out. So how do you continually write about indexing if your readers find it irritating?

Bill Bernstein  (00:10:49):  I think Jonathan arrived at the same place I did. Even though he was slightly younger than me, he was a couple of years ahead of me, because he started on this topic earlier. But we both ended up in the same place: you keep your message consistent, but you frame it, you tell it, you ornament it in different ways every single time. Jonathan was an unparalleled master at writing what some people disparagingly call listicles. He’d come up with 25 funny things active managers say to justify their underperformance, run through all these bullet points, each one very funny, and then at the end he’d say, and that’s why I think you should put all your money in index funds.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:12:01):  I wonder how many of those lines came from angry emails from fund managers.

Bill Bernstein  (00:12:06):  Probably a lot of them.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:12:08):  So one of his core principles is that successful investing should be comprehensively, almost aggressively boring—which is kind of ironic, since both asset management and financial journalism are unusually noisy, FOMO-based industries. So how do you make a message stick as an island of rationality in a sea of noise and emotionally driven stimulus?

Bill Bernstein  (00:12:45):  That’s a tough one. You become what Jason has become a master of, which is saying the same thing in so many different ways that your editors and your readers don’t notice you’re saying the same thing over and over again.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:13:04):  No doubt about that.

Jason Zweig  (00:13:05):  And Barry, sorry—if I can jump in. I think one thing that’s underappreciated about somebody like Jonathan is the amount of integrity and courage it takes to stick to a simple message. The job of an investigative journalist is to get people who don’t want to talk to you to tell you things they don’t want you to know. The job of a mainstream journalist is to tell your readers things they need to know, whether they want to hear them or not. That’s what Jonathan was brilliant at.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:13:51):  And again, the word integrity comes up so many times when you talk about Jonathan. Here he is working in a sandbox—active fund managers—that’s how he’s paying his mortgage, and he wakes up one morning and says, this is intellectually dishonest. I’ve got to find some other message. Very few journalists make that choice. They just keep plugging away and don’t question what they’re doing. Really interesting. We’re talking about investing and money, but Clements emphasized this wasn’t about getting rich—it was about building a good life. So when do you think his thinking shifted from simply building a portfolio to something more philosophical?

Bill Bernstein  (00:14:43):  I think that happened in the early 2000s, when all of us—maybe all four of us—started to come across the wellbeing research that academic neuropsychologists were doing on what makes people happy. Money is a very small part of that. That’s what Jonathan made into his mission in financial journalism: exploring the connection between money and happiness. That’s not something many financial journalists venture into.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:15:20):  I know more money when you’re broke is better than less money, but it plateaus. Holding steady for things like divorce and illness, it plateaus surprisingly rapidly. So let’s channel Jonathan for a moment. What is the purpose of money, and how does it help one live a rich, fulfilling life?

Jason Zweig  (00:15:47):  Jonathan really explored that research into hedonic psychology, particularly the implications of: does money buy happiness? How can you use money to achieve happiness? There’s an enormous, voluminous amount of research on this in very obscure academic journals, and when Jonathan started working on it, very few non-academics were even aware it existed. There’s a handful of takeaways from that work. One is that possessions don’t generally make people happy. There are exceptions, but as a general rule, the bigger house, the fancier car, the painting on the wall, the bigger couch generally don’t move people’s happiness as much as they expect. That gap—between what you spend and the happiness you expect to get from the spending—is what causes the disappointment people feel. Everyone listening has had a similar experience. You’ve been in a starter house, you see a new house you love, you talk about it with your significant other, you agree to take the plunge. You buy the house, you move in, and you’re thrilled. Then a year later you look around and the paint is chipping and there are rats in the attic, and it’s mo’ money, mo’ problems, right? The next level beyond that observation is that you want to use your money to create experiences with people you love—shared experiences, memories. So you spend money on things you can do with friends and family: joint vacations, commemorative events, family reunions. And then there’s the final level that Jonathan explored more and more in the later years of his life, especially after his terminal diagnosis: using money to create meaning. Finding something bigger than yourself that you can support or strengthen—giving to a cause you care about, supporting a nonprofit, volunteering. All of those can move the needle much more than buying a new table or some other possession you’ve had your eye on.

Bill Bernstein  (00:19:21):  And the thing about Jonathan was, he lived that ethic every day of his life. He didn’t make a lot of money as a financial journalist. I think he worked a couple of years at Citicorp and made a pretty decent salary, but his lifetime earnings were not that high. And yet he amassed a significant amount of assets by hammering away at being frugal—amassing enough financial capital so that he didn’t have to depend on his human capital, as he put it. I never saw him so happy as when he showed up at our place in Portland, having spent $2 to take the MAX train in from the airport. Jason just explained very nicely the three levels he climbed. I think there was yet another level on top of that, which is to have enough assets so that you don’t have to worry about assets. The ultimate purpose of money, for Jonathan, was not having to worry about money.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:20:26):  Right. He said something—and I may be lifting this from the headline of one of his early diagnosis articles—which was, dying is easy, but estate planning and taking care of your loved ones after you’re gone is hard. That struck me as such a quirky, matter-of-fact observation about something we’re all going to face eventually. He just had to face it a little earlier, and with a sense of humor. The old joke is dying is easy, comedy is hard. No—estate planning and taking care of your loved ones, that’s what’s hard.

Bill Bernstein  (00:21:05):  If there’s one thing Jonathan didn’t believe, it’s that he who dies with the most toys wins.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:21:12):  Coming up, we continue our conversation with William Bernstein and Jason Zweig, remembering Jonathan Clements and discussing his most recent book, The Best of Jonathan Clements. I’m Barry Ritholtz, and you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I am Barry Ritholtz, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio, in an extra special edition of the show. This week is all about remembering Jonathan Clements, the Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist and author. My special guests are William Bernstein and Jason Zweig, who have known and worked with Jonathan for many decades. So let me pull on one thread: the idea of delayed gratification. I already know what your answer’s going to be, but I have to pose the question. Here’s somebody diligent about saving, diligent about postponing gratification, and then unfortunately he doesn’t get the full fruits to enjoy it. Give us your explanation as to how and why he was perfectly fine with that.

Jason Zweig  (00:22:37):  I talked a lot with Jonathan the last year of his life. He called me maybe two or three weeks after he got word of his terminal diagnosis. The thing that struck me, Barry, was that, having been his friend for decades, I could instantly tell none of this was an act. Most of us, if we got a terminal diagnosis—particularly one like Jonathan’s, where he was given originally five to twelve months—would put on a brave face. We’d be faking it for our friends and family. But Jonathan, from the very beginning, was totally at peace with it. I can’t tell you I can fully explain that. I think he meant what he said: that he felt he had lived the best life he could have, and he had done everything he wanted. He’d accomplished most of what he wanted to achieve, and he was okay with news that would absolutely devastate most people.

Bill Bernstein  (00:24:15):  Neuropsychologists use a personality scale—a five-item scale. One of the items is neuroticism, which is basically how much you focus on the problems in your life. He had a very high hedonic setpoint; he was in a good mood most of the time. So his neuroticism score, as far as I could tell, was zero. He dealt with his own mortality as well as he could, with a sense of humor. My gosh—he joked to everybody about what a great marketing strategy a terminal diagnosis was if you’re trying to flog a book.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:24:54):  Don’t recommend it. You only get to use it once. But only someone with a sense of humor can say that. So let’s talk about the book, The Best Of. How did it come together? Whose idea was it? What was it like working on a project with Jonathan under his awareness of his terminal diagnosis?

Bill Bernstein  (00:25:17):  Whose idea was it? I was going to look at you and ask. I think it was Jonathan’s idea, actually. He just decided he wanted to put together a compilation. His main goal was to raise funds for a charitable purpose, which took us a while to evolve. That was the project.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:25:44):  Let me just interrupt you. The Jonathan Clements Getting Going on Savings Initiative—funding Roth IRA contributions for young adults from low-income households. That sounds less like a book and more like a policy intervention.

Bill Bernstein  (00:26:00):  Yeah. It turned out that translating that idea into something practical was harder than anybody had realized. But it seemed like a good idea at the time. So Jason and I and Jonathan put together a list of his columns—I think it was Jonathan who basically gave us the list, and Jason helped me organize it. We self-published it through Amazon, and it has raised a substantial amount of money for the initiative, which we eventually arrived at—I don’t know if we want to talk about that just yet.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:26:38):  Sure, we can talk about it. How much money did it raise, and did anyone have targets in mind? Was this all upside surprise?

Bill Bernstein  (00:26:47):  On the order of about $60,000, which is a substantial amount of money. We actually raised a lot more through the Bogle Center—through personal donations that came into the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy. That money is going into a research project. Jason, I can never remember what J-PAL stands for. That’s the research group doing this.

Jason Zweig  (00:27:19):  So J-PAL is a behavioral economics research institute based at MIT in Boston. It’s run partly by Esther Duflo, who shared a Nobel Prize in economics in, I want to say, 2023. J-PAL does all kinds of interventions based on behavioral economics research, trying to encourage people from low-income households around the world to form more constructive savings habits, to borrow more prudently, to become long-term investors. We partnered with them because we really felt that getting Jonathan’s vision from an idea into an actual program was beyond us. We needed help. J-PAL works with academics at universities all around the world. Between Boston University, the University of Chicago, and Northeastern, we were able to round up some great economists and researchers to make the program a reality. Last summer, it was piloted with high school kids in Boston from poor families who were randomly selected to get money to open a Roth IRA. We’re testing whether particular kinds of messaging or other techniques can not only encourage them to invest, but turn them into investors by changing their behavior over the long term. It’s still very early. We don’t know whether it’ll work, but we hope it will. And even if it fails, we’re pretty confident we’ll learn some useful things about how to encourage good long-term investing behavior.

Bill Bernstein  (00:30:00):  It turns out it’s really hard to give away money to kids for a Roth IRA.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:30:07):  This is before we passed—I don’t know if you want to call them baby bonds or Trump accounts—that thousand-dollar initial tax-deferred account.

Bill Bernstein  (00:30:17):  Correct. Predates that.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:30:18):  And by the way, that dates back to—I’m drawing a blank on his name—a VC out in California who first proposed it.

Jason Zweig  (00:30:28):  Mike Bell.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:30:29):  Who first proposed this a decade ago and was slogging away trying to get it accepted. So those are the proceeds. Let’s talk about the book itself. Sixty columns out of over a thousand—that has to be a tough list. Did anything on it surprise you or make you scratch your head? How do you think of the arc, now that you guys helped structure and organize it—which really is half the battle? Once you have it structured, it becomes a whole lot easier.

Bill Bernstein  (00:31:00):  I don’t think Jonathan had an organizing principle. I think he just went through his thousand and nine columns—actually more than that—and picked out his favorites. Then it fell to the three of us to organize the book, which took some work. They were organized according to the things Jonathan wrote about: the principles of indexing, the importance of saving, how to calculate how much money you need, and then all the behavioral issues we talked about. I think we came up with seven or eight basic chapter headings.

Jason Zweig  (00:31:44):  Jonathan also did something else that was unusual and frankly risky: he wrote really often about his family and their issues with money. I don’t think Hannah and Henry would mind my saying this—he sort of used his kids as guinea pigs to test out how you motivate children to save, how you get them to become long-term investors. We did not do this in my household. On the one hand, I’m glad we didn’t, because I think it can make your kids a little crazy if you turn them into lab rats. On the other hand, his kids probably have healthier finances than my kids do.

Bill Bernstein  (00:32:42):  And a healthier financial outlook too. I’m about a decade older than Jonathan was—more than that—and so are my kids; they’re considerably older than his, because I had my kids later than he did. A couple of the tricks he came up with, I just thought, God, I wish I’d thought of that. When your kid asks for a soda—the $4 soda at the restaurant—it’s, I’ll give you a buck if you take the water. I’d probably be a couple grand richer if I’d thought of that one first.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:33:18):  That’s a great parenting hack. Share some others. What other financial tricks was he using that ended up having a good impact on the children, either of you?

Bill Bernstein  (00:33:30):  Well, the bank of mom and dad—he closed that. Instead of opening your wallet for the endless supply of fives and tens and twenties whenever they wanted something, at age 11 or 12 he gave them ATM cards that he’d load up at the beginning of the month. When the money was gone, the money was gone.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:33:51):  Until the next month.

Bill Bernstein  (00:33:52):  And that’s a great trick.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:33:55):  I’ve got to imagine a lot of parents are listening and saying, closing the bank of mom and dad—what happens when they burn through the ATM in week one? Now you have three weeks of whining. How do you manage around that?

Bill Bernstein  (00:34:08):  That’s tough. That’s tough nuggies.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:34:10):  You just ignore the whining. Plan better next month and we won’t be having this conversation. That’s really pretty amazing. So it appears to me that Jonathan spent a big part of his career—and I always hate this word—democratizing good financial advice. It sounds like this initiative is the culmination of all of that, and maybe further, because he’s trying to reach people who are normally completely ignored by the wealth management and mutual fund world.

Bill Bernstein  (00:34:48):  Yeah. Part of the problem we have is the behavioral problem of getting people to save. Hopefully this initiative, this research project, will shed a little light on that, and help people save for their own retirement, both through employer plans and on their own.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:35:13):  So let’s talk a little about the behavior gap. Both of you have written about this, and Jonathan wrote extensively about it. Essentially it’s the difference between what people know they should do and what they end up doing despite knowing it. How do we contextualize this behavior gap from Jonathan’s perspective?

Bill Bernstein  (00:35:40):  I think Jonathan did something really important. There was a firm, which I won’t name, that in the nineties used to say the behavior gap was 7 or 8% a year for people who didn’t use stockbrokers to buy their mutual funds. In other words, if you were willing to pay an upfront sales charge to buy a mutual fund, you’d end up earning a much higher return than somebody who didn’t go through a stockbroker.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:36:18):  Does the math bear that out?

Bill Bernstein  (00:36:19):  The math does not bear that out. No. The behavior gap is real, but it’s nowhere near that big.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:36:30):  Two to 3%, something along those lines.

Bill Bernstein  (00:36:33):  Probably a little smaller.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:36:34):  I remember a Vanguard study that specifically said, for people who have behavior issues, it’s worth paying half a percent or 1% to somebody if it prevents them from making 3 or 4% in errors. I’m talking my book; they were talking their book. How do you perceive the ability for someone to talk an investor off the ledge, when every instinct in their body says, no, no, we want to sell now—because in March ’09 or March 2020, this is going to get much worse than it is right now?

Bill Bernstein  (00:37:13):  That’s a completely separate issue from what we’re talking about. What we’re talking about is, what is the gap? And the answer is, it’s not 7 or 8%, it’s closer to 1% or 1.5%—which is less than the cost of engaging conventional advice, certainly through a full-service financial institution. The other issue you’re asking about is how you prevent people from jumping off the ledge. The answer is that’s very hard to do, because you have to impart a sense of financial history to people, which is something maybe one out of 50 investors takes seriously.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:37:56):  That low—the numbers are that low? I’m thinking about your quote about managing your own limbic system. If you can’t do that, you’re going to die poor. Tell us how all these columns and the book from Jonathan address that.

Bill Bernstein  (00:38:09):  The limbic system, very crudely, is system one. It’s the fast-moving system that engages when we hear the hiss of the snake, or see the yellow and black stripes in our peripheral vision on the African savanna. We overcome it with system two, our thinking part of the brain, the neocortex. And the neocortex has to learn something about financial history. Good luck with that.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:38:37):  Good luck not only teaching it, but it seems the half-life of financial literacy is really short. Even if you teach people, you’ve got to keep drumming it in, because events move so fast people forget pretty quickly.

Bill Bernstein  (00:38:53):  People do learn when they get hit over the head by a two-by-four, which they did in ’08, ’09, and in 2000. Einstein is supposed to have said the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest—which of course he never said. But the most powerful force in the financial universe is amnesia. People forget.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:39:14):  What’s the Galbraith quote? The one thing we learn about financial history is that no one learns from financial history. So it’s really true. Let’s talk about this book, starting with: who gets a terminal diagnosis and says, I know, I’ll write a book? Every one of us at this table has written more than one book, and I think we’d all admit they’re kind of a slog. Where did this come from? What was the motivation?

Jason Zweig  (00:39:48):  Jonathan never told me he was doing it. I don’t know if he told you, Bill—he didn’t. I only found out about it several months after he died. I think it was part of how he coped with knowing his time was limited. He just wanted to make the most of the time he had left—he spent a large part of every day with family and friends, creating new memories that the people who remained behind, when he was gone, would be able to cherish. But he also spent part of every day doing what he liked best, which was writing.

Bill Bernstein  (00:40:39):  Yeah. If you asked Jonathan who he was and what he did, he’d say, first of all, it’s about my family, and secondly, who I am is a writer. He could no sooner stop writing than he could stop breathing.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:40:59):  So the book, Money and Me, combines a lot of writing he did at HumbleDollar, as well as some fairly personal reflections on his diagnosis. Is this book very different in tone, goals, and ambitions from his earlier writings?

Bill Bernstein  (00:41:19):  It’s a biography. An autobiography.

Jason Zweig  (00:41:22):  It’s a biography. But, having not read it yet, I suspect it’s a biography with a lot of insightful lessons learned along the way.

Bill Bernstein  (00:41:33):  We covered a lot of those in the first segment: what’s money for? What’s life all about? What’s the meaning of life? That’s what he wanted to approach. He wanted to put a coda on his life, and I think that’s what the book was for.

Jason Zweig  (00:41:52):  A coda, yeah. I’ve been thinking a lot about this, because I mention Jonathan and the writing he did at the end of his life in a book of my own that I’ve just finished. The way I came out was that I think Jonathan took heart from giving heart. He gave heart to so many people in the last year of his life by writing incredibly candidly about what it’s like to know you’re dying. What do you have to do before you’re done? How do you accomplish everything you want to achieve in the very limited time left to you, while retaining your dignity, while spending time with the people you love? How do you set those priorities and put it all in context? Jonathan got not hundreds but thousands of emails and letters from people who were dying, people taking care of loved ones who were dying, people whose loved ones had died, people afraid of death, people who’d gotten a terminal diagnosis and then gone into remission or been cured. Over and over, it was an incredible outpouring of gratitude and love. The thing I think is the biggest tribute to Jonathan is that, in the writing I did about him in the last year of his life—in my column and in the newsletter I do for the Wall Street Journal—I easily got three or four hundred emails myself. And the single most common thing readers said about Jonathan was, he was my friend. They said that even though none of them had ever met him. And it was true, because he really cared about the average person. He loved his readers, even the ones he’d never met. He understood that when you’re an individual investor, you’re just a little piece of plankton in a sea of sharks and barracuda, at the bottom of the food chain. Jonathan was their advocate. And when he got that terminal diagnosis, he realized he could be an advocate for an entirely new group of people: those who’ve been touched by terminal illness.

Bill Bernstein  (00:45:07):  He had an ability almost no journalist has, which is that you read him and you say, this man knows my life. Even before he got his terminal diagnosis—he quits Citicorp around 2014 and says, well, what am I going to do? I’m going to give back. So he founds HumbleDollar, which continues publishing even after he’s gone. He created something that was very useful while he was publishing it and is still providing a service. His life was service more than anything else.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:45:53):  Coming up, we continue our conversation with William Bernstein and Jason Zweig, discussing Jonathan Clements’s forthcoming book, Money and Me. I’m Barry Ritholtz, and you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I am Barry Ritholtz, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guests today are Jason Zweig and William Bernstein. We’re remembering Jonathan Clements, the HumbleDollar and Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist. He has a new book coming out posthumously, Money and Me. So let’s talk a little about service—not just to his readers, but to his family. If you preach delayed gratification and then realize that window is only small, you then want some of that gratification. When I interviewed him after his diagnosis, he was planning a number of events, travel, and other things with his family. Tell us about what he got to do in the last year of his life that he might otherwise have postponed until years later.

Jason Zweig  (00:47:26):  Obviously we should be respectful of Jonathan’s privacy, but I think I can share most of this.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:47:35):  He did discuss a lot of it, and I’m assuming some of it’s in the book, so I’m not asking for secrets. Tell us what he was public about.

Jason Zweig  (00:47:42):  His son was planning to get engaged, and got engaged and got married, and Jonathan and his wife Elaine got to travel to London for the wedding. Jonathan himself accelerated his own engagement and marriage to Elaine. He organized those things knowing they were important to him and his family. He also went on a bunch of trips with his mom and his siblings. He had to cancel a couple of trips because at various points he was too sick to travel, but his siblings and kids would meet in Philadelphia, and other places—they just maximized the amount of time they spent together, with family and with friends. I visited him twice. Another mutual friend of ours from our days at Forbes went with me on one of those visits.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:49:07):  Was this to London?

Jason Zweig  (00:49:08):  No, to Philadelphia. Philadelphia’s great—don’t get me wrong, I love Philly—but London is more fun, maybe, for an American. The thing I’d point out, because I saw it firsthand, is that this may not sound like a big deal to most people listening—oh yeah, your time is limited, so speed stuff up and make it happen. Making it happen isn’t as easy as it sounds. You’re getting chemo, you’re getting radiation therapy, you’re getting surgical cement squirted into your spine, you’re getting cut open for this thing or that thing, your hair is falling out, walking is difficult. And through all of that, Jonathan was like, yeah, come on, come next Tuesday, I’ve got nothing but time.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:50:26):  Nothing but time—when we all have limited time, and he knows pretty realistically how short his is. It sounds like this could be a morbid or depressing category, but knowing how he discussed things after his diagnosis, I have a sneaking suspicion the book is more uplifting than depressing. Tell us about the tone he takes in what most of us would think of as really difficult circumstances.

Bill Bernstein  (00:51:06):  Most of the book doesn’t cover his terminal illness—that’s maybe 10 or 15% of it. He does a beautiful job of describing just what Jason did: his journey through the relationship between money and happiness, and how he arrived at the place he did. The thing that struck me when I would visit him or talk to him on the phone—and in the practice of medicine I spent a lot of time talking to dying patients—was that he was just the easiest person to talk to. You’d get off the phone with him, you’d come away from a visit, and you’d feel uplifted. I can tell you that’s not true most of the time.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:52:00):  And does that translate into the book?

Jason Zweig  (00:52:03):  Yes. What I’d jump in with, Barry, is that—it may sound like a strange word, but the word I’d use is joy. Jonathan talked and wrote about dying from the most positive perspective you could possibly imagine. It’s as if he really felt he had lived the life he wanted to live, and above all he wanted to go out on a high note, and bring everybody along with him.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:52:51):  That was his great gift and his great endowment. We talked a bit about hedonic setpoint—he just wasn’t a glass-half-full kind of guy. He was a glass-seven-eighths-full kind of guy.

Bill Bernstein  (00:53:01):  Just that headline—I don’t remember if it was the Journal or the Times piece—dying is easy, planning for death is hard—is filled with that mischievous sense of humor about something everybody else takes very seriously. When confronted with it, it’s like, you’ve got no choice but to laugh and plow ahead. That seems to be what he did.

Jason Zweig  (00:53:24):  One of the lines he used that I’ll never forget—it was maybe the second-to-last phone conversation I had with him—he said, when I got my original diagnosis, they told me I had five to twelve months to live. I may not be remembering correctly; I think at the time we were talking it was maybe 13 months prior. And he said, so I’m already playing in overtime. I burst out laughing, just the way you did. My friend is dying and I’m laughing—but I’m laughing with him.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:54:12):  As he cracks jokes about it.

Jason Zweig  (00:54:13):  Yes. And it wasn’t like—if that had been me, I might’ve been joking to cover my fear. He was joking because he thought it was funny.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:54:28):  So there’s a line from Howard Marks that I suspect reflects a lot of what’s in this book, and I’m curious about your thoughts: what we get when we don’t get what we want. In the overlap between happiness and money—that Venn diagram, which I suspect has less overlap than most people realize until they get an experience that might not be what they wanted—how has Jonathan’s perspective changed about money, happiness, and the purpose of living a rich life?

Bill Bernstein  (00:55:19):  I think he started out as a young man, the way he describes in the book, with a conventional view of money: that money is to buy things and help you get by in life. When he started his career in journalism, he had credit card debt and student debt, and probably all he was thinking about was getting out from under that. Unlike most people, he evolved beyond that very quickly to the higher uses of money we’ve been talking about.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:56:00):  Anything to add to that?

Jason Zweig  (00:56:02):  The thing I’d add, Barry, is that it takes a lot, after all the years I’ve been doing financial journalism, to get me to feel I’ve really learned something important—because I’ve seen most of it. I really learned from Jonathan that how you live under the ordinary conditions of daily life is one thing, but how you live when you’ve got a death sentence is something else. He really shows that you can still celebrate, and you should, and you should figure out how to comfort the people who love you in a way that will always console them after you’re gone. The book really shows that, of course, we’re all afraid of dying, but we’re probably afraid of it for the wrong reasons. What Jonathan really showed is that the thing you should be afraid of about dying is going out the wrong way—not giving the people who will live after you the positive things you can give them as gifts. And that’s what he did.

Bill Bernstein  (00:57:56):  Yeah. The other thing he was aware of is that he realized he was a very positive person, dealing with his terminal illness as well as any person could. And he was much more acutely aware of how much harder it was for the people around him. He talked about that a lot—how hard it was, particularly on his kids.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:58:18):  That makes perfect sense. So, last question. If Jonathan were here, what do you think he’d want the takeaway to be from the book about the relationship between money and a life well lived?

Bill Bernstein  (00:58:34):  He would tell you to figure out who the heck you are and what you really enjoy doing. And that’s what the money is for.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:58:45):  Sounds wise. Jason, you want—

Jason Zweig  (00:58:48):  I have nothing to add.

Barry Ritholtz  (00:58:50):  Did we miss anything? Is there something I haven’t brought up? I don’t want this to be a morbid conversation. We’re all solemn, but I know each of you have a long and positive relationship with Jonathan, so I don’t want this to come across as morbid—just because it involves death doesn’t mean it’s sad. What else do you want listeners to take away from Jonathan’s life, his work, his books? People should be aware this isn’t a downbeat book. It isn’t depressing. We’re being respectful, but at the same time, he was a happy, joyful person.

Jason Zweig  (00:59:39):  We don’t want to get into anything morbid, but—when I was in college, my dad died, when I was 22. The thing he was most worried about as he lay dying—he died of lung cancer—he kept saying to me, I don’t want you to remember me like this, as a sick person. And I kept saying, I’m not going to remember you like this. I couldn’t know that was true, but it was—I don’t remember my dad as a sick person. I remember him as this incredibly vital, physically strong, mentally agile, impressive person. And what I’ll always remember about Jonathan is that every time I think of him, I hear him laughing. That’s the first thing that comes into my head. He didn’t just laugh, he cackled, and his laughter was contagious. It never stopped. The last conversation I had with him, he was laughing at himself, at how dying was such a weird thing—and that if people only knew what it was like, they…

Barry Ritholtz  (01:01:07):  They wouldn’t fear it.

Jason Zweig  (01:01:09):  They wouldn’t—yeah.

Barry Ritholtz  (01:01:09):  Well, they would fear it less. Well, gentlemen, I really appreciate you guys coming in to talk about the life and times of Jonathan Clements. It was an absolutely unique life—one that left behind a tremendous legacy for all of his friends and family, but also his readers. The ability to touch tens of thousands of people in a very positive way is a very rare thing. I hope people appreciate the conversation not as a morbid remembrance, but as a hopeful and uplifting one, for somebody who left a very positive mark behind. Thank you, gentlemen, for being so generous with your time. We’ve been speaking with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein, remembering the life, times, and writings of Jonathan Clements, in anticipation of his final book, Money and Me, coming out May 26th, 2026. I’d be remiss if I didn’t thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week. Alexis Noriega is my video producer, Sean Russo is my researcher, Anna Luke is my podcast producer. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Remembering Jonathan Clements with Jason Zweig and William Bernstein appeared first on The Big Picture.

Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports As Ukrainian Attacks Cripple Refining

Zero Hedge -

Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports As Ukrainian Attacks Cripple Refining

Russia is banning exports of jet fuel through November 30, 2026, as it seeks to ensure domestic supply amid intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian refining infrastructure, OilPrice.com reported.

Russia on Monday announced it is temporarily banning jet fuel exports until the end of November to keep sufficient domestic aviation fuel supplies. Supplies under intergovernmental agreements are exempted from the ban, the Russian government said today.

The decision comes after drone strikes on refineries pushed Russia’s crude-processing rate to the lowest in more than 16 years. In an effort to curb the flow of petrodollars into the Kremlin’s coffers, Ukraine has targeted a wide range of energy assets including sea ports and pipelines. 

The ban is not expected to be felt on the tight international jet fuel market as Russia is a small exporter of aviation fuels.  Last year, it exported an average of 30,000 barrels a day, or less than 2% of the global supplies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. Daily average exports slipped to 28,000 barrels in the first four months of 2026, with Turkey being the main buyer, the data show. 

But the ban on kerosene exports follows a ban on gasoline exports, in force since April 1, as Russia has seen its refining capacity and capability crippled in recent weeks by intensifying drone attacks from Ukraine.

Kyiv has targeted several major refiners and oil export terminals since the war in Iran began, aiming to cripple Russia's ability to take advantage of the soaring international oil and fuel prices.

Last month, Ukraine targeted the 300,000-barrels per day Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia, escalating the drone attacks on Russian refining and oil exporting assets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

“We are bringing the war back home – to Russia – and that’s only fair,” Zelenskyy said in May.

The attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery, co-owned by Gazprom Neft, was the fourth on the facility in one month, as Ukraine looks to diminish Russia’s refining and export capabilities amid soaring international oil and fuel prices.

Since international crude oil prices surged following the war in the Middle East, Russia has boosted its oil revenues as not only prices have jumped, but Russian oil was made desirable in India again, thanks to U.S. waivers for sales of Russia’s crude already loaded on tankers.

Ukraine is intensifying attacks on Russian refineries and oil export ports as Kyiv looks to limit Russia’s oil exports and revenues.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 14:45

Taiwan's Opposition Leader Tours US, Fresh Off Xi Meeting, As Trump Nixes Call With Taiwanese President

Zero Hedge -

Taiwan's Opposition Leader Tours US, Fresh Off Xi Meeting, As Trump Nixes Call With Taiwanese President

Just two weeks ago, when fielding questions from reporters about the now paused massive US arms package to Taiwan, President Trump stated: "I have to speak to the person that right now is - you know who he is - that's running Taiwan."

And now, in the wake of Trump's May Bejing visit to meet within Xi Jinping, CBS reports, "President Trump is no longer expected to speak with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te before Chinese President Xi Jinping's potential trip to the United States this fall, multiple sources familiar with the discussions" stated.

Xi had warned Trump that Taiwan could become a "very dangerous situation" if mishandled - and since then the estimated $14 billion weapons package has been put on pause.

Reuters: Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in April.

That a sitting US president is not speaking to Taiwan's elected leader is actually normal based on Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity, and official acknowledgement of 'One China'. Trump is signaling that this will not change for now:

No sitting U.S. president has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979 due to diplomatic sensitivities in managing relations with China, although in December 2016, while Mr. Trump was president-elect, he received a congratulatory call from then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ying-wen.

"I think [Lai], if he has time, would love to tell him our side of the story, the Taiwan story, which is one that — of resiliency, of a state staying up against the Chinese aggression," Alexander Yui, Taiwan's Representative to the U.S., told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on May 17.

But while the self-ruled island's leader Lai Ching-te is in political limbo and waiting on the sidelines as Washington and Beijing continue to try and heal relations, the head of Taiwan's lead opposition party will be touring around the United States:

In April, Cheng Li-wun became the first leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party to meet Xi Jinping in a decade. On Monday, she is flying to the U.S. with a message Beijing would recognize as its own.

Cheng, the chairwoman of the Kuomintang, is set to begin a two-week U.S. tour that is billed as a peace mission but also carries the weight of U.S.-China geopolitics. It is happening as Beijing is urging Washington to rethink its support for Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island that doesn’t recognize Beijing’s claim to govern it.

Cheng is a possible contender in Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, in a party that has traditionally supported reconciliation with China. Her message for an American audience is that Taiwan—formally the Republic of China, not to be confused with the People’s Republic of China—operates under a constitution that already supports the principle that the island and the mainland are part of a single China. Cheng maintains that she, not the current government, is the leader best positioned to guarantee stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Importantly, The Wall Street Journal speculates on the possibility of Cheng meeting with Trump, or possibly other White House officials - though it seems unlikely:

If Cheng returns home having secured high-level American access, she can present herself back home as the one figure capable of managing both Beijing and Washington.

“That,” Sacks said, “would be a fairly formidable proposition.”

The question is whether President Trump will play along. People close to the White House said Cheng shouldn’t expect meetings with top administration officials, pointing to a policy framework in which the administration engages foreign opposition leaders only when they are seen as likely future heads of government—a bar Cheng hasn’t cleared.

Cheng has expressed her willingness to meet Trump, though she has also said that is likely to be hard. 

This is all about steering self-ruled Taiwan into China's orbit, and Beijing asserting political power to do so in the face of the Trump administration, after China has long stated its official policy of reunification to the mainland through political means.

Beijing has continued to present itself as the only peace guarantor and as a force for stability and is seeking 'Taiwan's willing participation' - at a moment the Middle East is on fire largely as a result of American policy and quickness to result to force and surprise attacks.

Xi and Cheng, when they met in Beijing back in early April, expressed a desire for a "peaceful" resolution to the many decades-long Taiwan crisis, and posed for photos at the Great Hall of the People. They engaged in public remarks but also held a private, closed-door meeting.

Cheng emphasized in words to reporters that Chinese and Taiwanese officials should work to "transcend political confrontation and mutual hostility." She stated, "Instead, it should become a strait that connects family ties, civilization and hope – a symbol of peace jointly safeguarded by Chinese people on both sides."

Her rhetoric was tinged with familiar Chinese Communist Party talking points as she heralded China's supposed eradicating of absolute poverty while seeking to achieve the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 14:10

US Coast Guard Eliminates Race-Based Enlistment Preferences

Zero Hedge -

US Coast Guard Eliminates Race-Based Enlistment Preferences

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Coast Guard has eliminated race-based preferential enlistment for college students who wish to join the service and commission as officers, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a May 29 statement.

“The program in question, the College Student Pre-Commissioning Initiative (CSPI), includes a preference for students from educational institutions that meet certain quotas for specifically identified racial groups in their student bodies,” DHS said.

“Such requirements stand in stark contrast to the Trump Administration’s focus on fairness, merit, and eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies throughout the federal government. They are also in violation of the equal protection requirements of the U.S. Constitution.”

CSPI is a scholarship program aimed at college juniors and seniors. Students who join the program become active-duty Coast Guard members and are entitled to military benefits. The enrollees remain at the university until they complete their degrees.

During academic breaks, the students work with the Coast Guard. A mentor will be assigned to guide each student as they prepare to begin their career, according to the Coast Guard website.

To apply for CSPI, the student must be a sophomore or junior at a federally designated Minority Serving Institution, according to the website.

Such schools include Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, Asian American and Native American and Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions, Predominantly Black Institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities, Native American Non-Tribal Institutions, and Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian-Serving Institutions.

DHS said it has terminated such requirements as of May 28.

With the elimination of racial requirements, CSPI will function as a race-neutral program in which becoming commissioned officers in the Coast Guard will be determined by merit and achievement rather than “immutable characteristics,” the department said.

“The Trump Administration is more focused than ever on eliminating unconstitutional DEI policies like this one,” DHS general counsel James Percival said.

“By getting rid of these unconstitutional diversity quotas, we are returning the Coast Guard’s focus to military readiness, upholding the law, and making America a safer place.”

Crackdown on Military DEI

On Dec. 18 last year, President Donald Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, which authorized $901 billion in military and national security spending.

Sec. 901 of the bill prohibited DEI programs in the Department of War. The Secretary of War was banned from developing, implementing, or maintaining “an employee resource group or an affinity group based on race, color, ethnicity, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, or gender identity.”

The secretary was also prohibited from developing a training course related to diversity, equity, inclusion, intersectionality, and any critical theory related to race or gender.

Prior to the bill’s signing, the Modern Military Association of America had criticized the anti-DEI measures, calling them “harmful provisions,” according to a Dec. 10, 2025, statement from the association.

“The strength of the U.S. military lies not only in its size, but in its ability to draw on the talents, skills, and lived experiences of Americans from all backgrounds. A diverse force is more agile, innovative, and prepared to meet the complex challenges of modern warfare,” the association said.

“If enacted, they would jeopardize the health and well-being of service members, undermine recruitment and retention, and weaken overall military readiness.”

The Trump administration has steadily moved ahead with dismantling DEI policies and practices in the military despite opposition.

On Jan, 20, 2025, the first day in office of his second term, Trump issued the presidential action “Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing.”

On Jan.27, 2025, Trump signed another presidential action, stating that individuals expressing false “gender identity” cannot “satisfy the rigorous standards necessary for military service.”

In a July 20, 2025, announcement on X, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that after Trump was sworn into office, the Defense Department moved on three key initiatives—reestablishing deterrence, rebuilding the military, and restoring warrior ethos. This includes reevaluating DEI practices in the military.

“The results so far? Distractions like DEI, [critical race theory], social justice, politically correct stuff—gone,” Hegseth said.

During a May 23 address at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, Hegseth doubled down on his criticism of DEI in the military. He called the slogan “our diversity is our strength” the “single dumbest phrase” in military history.

“Now, these sorts of silly things can be laughed at when they occur in a civilian lounge or civilian faculty lounge or debated in graduate seminars. But they cannot be tolerated in our formations. These ideas are what get people killed. Diversity is not our strength. Unity is our strength,” Hegseth said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:55

Barry Diller Bets Big On Real-World Assets AI Can't Replace With MGM Resorts Bid

Zero Hedge -

Barry Diller Bets Big On Real-World Assets AI Can't Replace With MGM Resorts Bid

People Incorporated, formerly IAC and run by Barry Diller, has submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire the remaining MGM Resorts shares it does not already own for $48.30 per share in cash. 

The latest Bloomberg data show People Inc. owns 26.1% of MGM Resorts, or about 66.82 million shares. The offer to buy the remainder would cover roughly 73.9% of MGM that is not already owned.

The $48.30-per-share offer represents a 24.1% premium to MGM's 30-day volume-weighted average price, more than a 30% premium to its 90-day VWAP, and a 10.6% premium to the most recent closing price. Such a deal would value MGM Resorts at $18.8 billion, including debt

MGM Resorts shares are up 15% in late morning trade. 

"We began investing in MGM nearly six years ago because we believed it represented a rare kind of business: one with real-world assets that AI cannot easily replicate or disintermediate and exceptional digital growth opportunities. That conviction has only strengthened over time," Diller wrote in a statement.

He continued, "We continue to believe the market materially undervalues the power and durability of MGM's assets. We believe MGM's management team is superb, and that there is a compelling opportunity to support MGM's next phase of growth and help unlock its full value."

People Inc. expects MGM to go private if the deal proceeds. It would fund the transaction with cash on hand at both People and MGM, as well as additional debt and equity commitments.

"People Incorporated expects that it will own just over 50.1% of the equity of the company, with other investors (which may include existing shareholders of MGM) holding minority interests. People Incorporated would control the MGM business," Diller's firm stated.

News of the take-MGM-private deal comes days after Tilman Fertitta, the Texas billionaire behind Golden Nugget and Landry's, reportedly prepared a $5.7 billion takeover of Caesars Entertainment.

Is Wall Street's next big trade a rush into assets AI can't easily disrupt? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:40

Trump: Hezbollah Agrees Shooting Will Stop & Israel Will Avert Attack On Beirut

Zero Hedge -

Trump: Hezbollah Agrees Shooting Will Stop & Israel Will Avert Attack On Beirut

Update(1335ET): In a rare development, Iran itself is now issuing warnings for northern Israel. Tehran is saying that if Beirut comes under fresh Israeli attack, then new assaults on northern Israeli settlements will in turn be unleashed:

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has warned residents of northern Israel to leave the area if Israel carries out threats to expand attacks on Beirut and its southern suburbs.

But at the same time there are reports saying Hezbollah has indicated to Washington that it is ready to agree to a ceasefire if Israel does the same. And more:

  • HEZBOLLAH SAYS CONSENT WOULD BE WITHOUT PRECONDITION:CHANNEL 12
  • TRUMP: HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL AGREE NOT TO ATTACK EACH OTHER

Trump phone call with Netanyahu: Hezbollah agrees shooting will stop; will be no IDF troops going to Beirut:

Regional Asharq news writes that "Lebanon informed the US of Hezbollah's acceptance of Washington's proposal and its readiness to commit to not targeting Israel." But a ground war in southern Lebanon is already well underway - and a truce would likely be determinant on some level of an IDF withdrawal of territory captured in the last days.

*  *  *

The US-Iran ceasefire is being tested on multiple fronts, with Tehran already having announced Monday the suspension of contact with Washington over the escalation of Israel's ground war in Lebanon, where the IDF keeps pushing further north of the Litani River. Israel looks poised to resume major airstrikes on Beirut, despite that technically it has a US-mediated ceasefire in place with the government of Lebanon. Israeli leaders have vowed to halt Hezbollah's persistent drone strikes on northern Israel, and to establish a security buffer zone.

Also on Monday Israel's defense minister threatened there will be "no calm in Beirut" if Hezbollah's rockets and drones continue raining down on Israeli communities and troop locations. This is a direct threat to resume airstrikes on the capital city. This has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire:

IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP

via EuroNews

"The Dahiyeh in Beirut is no different from the communities in northern Israel – if there is no calm in the north, there will be no calm in Beirut," Israel Katz said in a statement released by his office,

Dahiyeh a Hezbollah stronghold near the country's main international airport, but is densely packed with civilians. Each wave of Israeli attacks has historically resulted in high civilian casualties.

"At the same time, the IDF continues to operate with fire and maneuver against Hezbollah terrorists and infrastructure in Lebanon ... in order to push threats away from IDF forces and from the residents of the State of Israel, and to turn the Litani area into a zone under IDF security control, free of weapons and terrorists," Katz added.

Some pundits have argued that the new Lebanon campaign is aimed at hindering Washington from making a 'bad deal' with Tehran (from Tel Aviv's perspective). Others have said Netanyahu appears "stuck" and doesn't have a clear mission in Lebanon:

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is “stuck” in terms of military strategy in Lebanon, according to Jad Melki, professor of media studies at the Lebanese American University.

Melki told Al Jazeera that most of Israel’s escalation has been targeting civilian centres in the city of Tyre, villages in south Lebanon, and historical sites like Beaufort Castle.

“Most of these have been built by Netanyahu as major strategic accomplishments, but those have been mostly exaggerated. Even the Beaufort Castle – unless we’re living in the 12th century, it’s not a strategic military location anymore,” he said.

“The problem is that Netanyahu is stuck,” Melki told Al Jazeera. “He cannot advance very quickly, as he will break the Israeli army, and he cannot sit still in the occupied territories of South Lebanon right now because the resistance is basically hunting his soldiers like sitting ducks, so he’s stuck and can only bomb hospitals and kill civilians and medical workers.”

Opinions have remained varied as to what Israel hopes to gain by escalating things in Lebanon at this fragile point where Israeli is at war on multiple fronts (and might the Houthis join next?):

Local Israeli media outlets have also in some cases questioned the strategic utility of the entire operation in establishing a 'buffer zone', pointing out that Hezbollah’s tactical drone fleet is widely believed to possess an operational range in excess of 30 km.

Hezbollah has been having success especially with fiber-optic cable drones which are not to susceptible to jamming, hacking, or other electronic warfare interception measures. All of these developments mean that the Washington-mediated ceasefire is effectively dead, and as Hezbollah's asymmetric warfare is likely to ramp up in response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:34

French Commandos Board & Seize 4th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Since September

Zero Hedge -

French Commandos Board & Seize 4th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Since September

France announced Monday another weekend interdiction of a Russian "shadow fleet" vessel in international waters near its coast. The French Navy boarded and detained a sanctioned oil tanker, President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday, in an operation which had the assistance from the UK Royal Navy and other allies.

This marks the fourth time since September that French commandoes have intercepted a boarded a sanctioned Russian vessel in regional waters.

via AFP/French military

The vessel, identified as the Tagor, originated from Murmansk, Russia, and was taken by French authorities while it traversed around 400 nautical miles (740 km) west of the tip of Brittany.

"It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than 4 years," Macron wrote in a post on X.

The apparent legal justification France's navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of "flag-hopping" - which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors.

At the time of boarding, via soldiers rappelling from helicopter, the ship was falsely flying a Cameroonian flag while reportedly en route to the coastal African city of Limbe, Cameroon.

Macron confirmed further on X: "This operation took place in the Atlantic Ocean, on the high seas, with the support of several partners, including the United Kingdom, in strict compliance with the law of the sea."

The Kremlin again condemned such 'unlawful' seizures in international waters, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, "We consider these acts as illegal, they border on international piracy … Russia is taking measures to ensure the safety of its cargo."

The vessel's captain is a Russian citizen, according to an embassy disclosure from Paris. According to more:

Guillaume Le Rasle, a spokesperson for the prefecture, said the tanker was under EU and US sanctions. “It is a vessel that was known and tracked,” he told AFP.

“The decision to divert it was taken Sunday evening. The objective of the diversion is to verify the validity of its flag,” Le Rasle said, adding that the tanker, which has frequently changed flags, was “almost empty” at the time of boarding.

The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:50

Anthropic Confidentially Files For IPO As Frontier AI Labs Race To Go Public

Zero Hedge -

Anthropic Confidentially Files For IPO As Frontier AI Labs Race To Go Public

Four days after releasing its latest Claude Opus 4.8 model and raising $65 billion at a $900 billion valuation, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft Form S-1 with the SEC late Monday morning for a proposed IPO of its common stock.

"This gives us the option to go public after the SEC completes its review. The proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors," the maker of the Claude chatbot wrote in a press release.

The move puts Anthropic and OpenAI in a race to become the first major frontier AI lab to tap public markets, as investor appetite for AI infrastructure and all things SpaceX remains hot into early June.

It's "worth noting: filing first ≠ pricing first a confidential draft S-1 starts the SEC clock but sets no date," CNBC reporter Deirdre Bosa pointed out on X.

The Polymarket bet "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" shows that the confidential S-1 filing was a surprise to prediction markets.

The surprise news comes four days after Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $900 billion valuation, nearly tripling its prior valuation and potentially surpassing OpenAI as the most valuable frontier AI lab.

That round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia, with additional participation from major investors including Baillie Gifford, Blackstone, Brookfield, Abu Dhabi’s MGX, and Singapore’s Temasek.

The funding comes shortly after Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8 and follows a prior $30 billion raise at a $350 billion valuation just three months earlier.

The Anthropic-OpenAI race to IPO comes as SpaceX is targeting an IPO for June 12, or next Friday, with shares expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.

Just last month. 

With the flurry of mega IPOs on deck, Goldman has the answer to whether markets can absorb all the incoming supply (read report).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:40

Them's Fightin' Words

Zero Hedge -

Them's Fightin' Words

By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Market Strategist

Resigned

Brent crude front-month futures are inching higher this morning after ending May down almost 20%. The May selloff has been courtesy of Mr Market’s Pavlovian response to fresh peace rumours, though it still remains the case that a deal has not been done and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

US equity indices closed higher across the board on Friday, but Asian stocks are mixed in early trade today. The S&P500 has now had nine-consecutive positive weekly closes and is sitting at a fresh all-time-high, with futures pointed at further gains when markets open later today.
While crude futures are lower, spot prices for Malaysian Tapis crude are proving a little more sticky and are still trading around the levels seen through late May and early April. Singapore gasoil (diesel) spot prices are testing support at $135/bbl, but even at those short-term lows prices are way above the $90.41/bbl recorded on February 26th (the last close before the war started) or the January prices in the high $70s, before the market started to price in what two carrier groups in the Middle East might mean.

Gold prices rose by 0.68% last week. This was the first positive weekly close since May 8th, and another example of markets respecting the $4,500/oz support level. Gold is now trading at levels similar to those seen in late December and early January as a number of central banks liquidated holdings in a scramble for Dollar liquidity earlier in the Hormuz crisis.

Sovereign yields are moving higher this morning after falling for much of last week. US 2-year yields are up 2bps to 4.04% in early trade, Aussie 2s are up 4bps to 4.56%, but New Zealand 2s are curiously flat after a hawkish RBNZ last week and a national budget that showed fiscal tightening will be delayed beyond the 2026/27 financial year. Moves at the longer end are even more pronounced, with 10-year Treasury yields up 3bps to 4.47%.

The shift higher in crude and yields could be a sign of markets beginning to resign themselves to the idea that a deal will remain elusive in the short term. The creep from “any minute now” this time last week to “maybe, or maybe not” is underway. Regular readers will know that RaboResearch updated our baseline view on the Hormuz crisis last week to suggest that the Strait is likely to remain mostly closed through to September as the parties to negotiations find that their red lines over Iran’s nuclear program are (still) incompatible, and the Iranians realise that giving up their oil market leverage would be a foolish thing to do.

A bad sign arrived this morning with the news that Iranian President Pezeshkian had offered his resignation to Supreme Leader Khamenei. Pezeshkian has reportedly claimed that he is unable to run the government and carry out his responsibilities, because the civilian government has been sidelined by the hardliners in the IRGC – the guys with the guns. This is a new angle on the view that various factions in Iran are competing with each other, and that there are large disagreements on how negotiations with the US should be handled, or if they should be happening at all.

Donald Trump raised some eyebrows yesterday when he said that the Iranian military (the Artesh) is ‘moderate’ and had been left alone during American strikes. This places Pezeshkian, foreign minister Araghchi, and possibly parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf (newly re-appointed) alongside the Artesh in the ‘moderate’ camp willing to do a deal, while the IRGC resists agreement with the US and insists on Iran’s rights over Hormuz and the progress of its nuclear program. We think that it will take longer yet before the IRGC sees eye-to-eye with the moderates, and that a continued closure with risks of further strikes is more likely than an agreement that is amenable to all and satisfies Donald Trump’s need to sign something that looks better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA. Of course, it may be the case that the much-maligned JCPOA was maligned for a reason. To paraphrase Solon of Athens, the JCPOA might not have contained the best terms, but it might have contained the best terms all parties could be induced to accept.

While the Hormuz issue drags on, the Ukraine war also continues to percolate and threatens to spread into Europe. Ukraine is deepening cooperation with EU states over drone technology, which has been used to great effect against Russian energy targets in recent months. Meanwhile, a Russian drone reportedly struck an apartment building in NATO member country Romania late last week. 

Former Russian President and close Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev took to X to warn “Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don't be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over...” To quote Yosemite Sam: “them’s fightin’ words”.

Clearly the Kremlin is not happy that Europe is continuing to support Ukraine in a conflict that some analysts are now saying has turned in the latter’s favor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:30

'Los Gatos Party Mom' Sentenced To 35 Years For Throwing Drunken Teen Parties

Zero Hedge -

'Los Gatos Party Mom' Sentenced To 35 Years For Throwing Drunken Teen Parties

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A Los Gatos, California, woman was sentenced on May 28 to 35 years and 10 months in prison, the maximum allowed, for hosting parties for young teenagers where she brought alcohol and egged on sex acts.

Shannon O’Connor, 52, threw these parties for two years and discouraged teens, who were mostly 14 and 15 years old, from telling their parents or police about the parties or calling for help when one of the victims passed out in their own vomit. 

“Many people call this defendant the ‘Los Gatos Party Mom.’ This isn’t some fun parent giving sips of wine spritzers to kids. She facilitated dangerous and drunken sex acts with these children. She risked their lives and damaged their psyches. She is not a party mom. Shannon O’Connor is a convicted felon. Shannon O’Connor is a registered sex offender,” Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen said.

O’Connor, also known as Shannon Burga, was convicted of 48 charges, including child abuse charges and two felony sex charges, in March.

Twenty young adults and 41 witnesses testified during the trial.

Thursday’s sentencing followed two days of testimony from the victims on O’Connor’s teen parties she hosted for two years, including one young woman who told the court she became suicidal from trauma induced by the parties.

At one party, O’Connor handed an underage teenager a condom and pushed him into a room with an intoxicated minor. 

At a separate New Year’s Eve party with about five 14-year-olds, O’Connor watched and laughed as a drunk teen sexually battered a young girl in bed.

In another incident, O’Connor brought a drunk teen into a bedroom where an intoxicated 14-year-old girl was lying in bed, according to prosecutors.

After the girl was assaulted, she said to O’Connor, “Why did you leave me in there with him? Like you knew, like what he was going to do to me.”

In another case, O’Connor let a minor drive her SUV in the Los Gatos High School parking lot while two other teens held onto the back, and one was knocked unconscious after falling off.

In some cases, she would text teens or message them on Snapchat to leave their homes in the middle of the night and drink at her house, where she would provide alcohol.

“[O’Connor] endangered their safety, coordinated their sexual assaults, and she tried to get them not to tell,” Rosen said. “These brave kids came forward to tell the truth about what happened and to put a stop to it.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:15

Inside The Major Bill Poised To Reshape The US Housing Market

Zero Hedge -

Inside The Major Bill Poised To Reshape The US Housing Market

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

The United States may be on track to implement the first comprehensive housing legislation in decades.

For the past several years, housing affordability has been a significant subject across the country, with many young people struggling to achieve the dream of homeownership.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have tried to reverse the trend by advancing the 21st Century Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream (ROAD) to Housing Act of 2025.

Here is a look inside the sweeping housing package and the path to passage.

Inside the Act

Although the current administration has examined strategies to expand access to the housing market, the bipartisan legislative initiative aims to bolster supply for middle-class families.

The bill’s main provision is a limit on institutional investors’ purchases of single-family homes.

Both chambers tweaked the proposal.

The Senate approved language that requires major investors who build single‑family rental homes to sell those properties within seven years.

The House’s version still aims to rein in Wall Street’s footprint in the single‑family market, but its latest draft eases the restrictions.

Lawmakers added wider exemptions for institutional buyers of newly constructed rentals, homes needing substantial renovation, and several other categories.

Other measures aim to facilitate more construction, including incentives to build more homes, convert abandoned buildings into housing, and modernize existing homes.

In addition, Washington bolstered eligible income limits for the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, a federal block grant program that state and local governments use to build, maintain, and support affordable housing for low‑income households.

Officials created a Housing Supply Framework to enable best practices in state and local zoning and land use.

The legislative text also expands banks’ authority to make public welfare investments supporting affordable housing. The bill raises the cap for banks’ public welfare investments to 20 percent from 15 percent.

Lawmakers removed the permanent chassis requirement for manufactured homes. The long-standing federal rule required that manufactured homes be constructed on a permanent steel frame to qualify under the federal construction code.

It also includes the Modular Housing Production Act and other reforms to streamline the production of factory-built housing.

There was also some focus on the demand side of the equation. For example, the bill establishes incentives for mortgage lenders to originate small-dollar mortgages—typically less than $100,000—to address the financing gap for low-cost homes. Additionally, Congress updated rules on appraisal standards and fees for these small-dollar loans.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes reforms to Veterans Affairs housing policies. The major changes include expanding access to Veterans Affairs home loans, improving consumer protections for borrowers, and enhancing housing support for disabled and homeless veterans.

Congressional Path

Unlike other pieces of legislation, the housing affordability bill has moved quickly through Congress—something that President Donald Trump had requested.

Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, introduced legislation in December 2025. Two months later, it passed 390–9 in the lower chamber.

As it arrived in the upper chamber, senators made substitutions rather than take up the House bill. The amended legislation passed 89–10 and was sent back to the House, where it passed 396–13.

It will now be delivered to the Senate for final approval.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the bipartisan housing bill will provide relief for families nationwide.

“We worked closely with the White House and our colleagues in both chambers on a bill that puts families first and addresses the housing crisis,” they said in a May 20 joint statement.

“There’s still work to be done and we are committed to continuing to work with the White House and our colleagues in the House on a housing bill that can pass the Senate and get to the president’s desk.”

What the Industry Says

The housing industry widely lauded Congress for moving ahead with the legislation.

Shortly after the House passed the bill, the National Association of Home Builders noted that it addresses several problems facing Americans today, mainly housing shortages and affordability challenges.

“The bottom line is that the housing crisis is a supply problem,” Bill Owens, the group’s chairman, said in a statement.

“Congress can help by improving access to capital, strengthening workforce pipelines, expanding the availability of buildable lots and reducing excessive regulatory costs and permitting delays.

“If we want to make housing more attainable, we must make it easier and less expensive to build.”

Emily Cadik, CEO of the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition, stated that increasing the banks’ public welfare investment cap to 20 percent will “unlock billions of dollars in new private investment.”

“Additional changes in the updated House legislation will further strengthen our ability to finance more affordable housing to address our nation’s immense need,” Cadik said in a statement.

The House passing the Senate’s amended version would both enhance housing supply and expand access to affordable mortgage credit, said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“[The legislation] will help advance meaningful housing affordability solutions for our nation’s homeowners and renters,” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:30

SpaceX IPO Update: New Filing Reveals Friends & Family Share Allocation, Anthropic AI Deal, And Water Risk

Zero Hedge -

SpaceX IPO Update: New Filing Reveals Friends & Family Share Allocation, Anthropic AI Deal, And Water Risk

SpaceX has provided fresh details in an amended S-1 filing regarding its upcoming initial public offering, including a directed share program for employees and insiders, a major AI computing agreement with Anthropic, and new risk factors.

The company will reserve up to 5% of shares in its IPO for certain employees and friends and family of its executive officers. The company disclosed that participants on its "friends and family" list will not be subject to a lock-up restriction, allowing them to sell shares immediately upon listing.

While directed share programs are common in IPOs, the lack of lock-up for this group stands out. More than 60% of shares outstanding immediately prior to the offering remain subject to an extended lock-up period, including shares held by founder and CEO Elon Musk.

SpaceX stands as the preeminent launch provider globally, delivering unmatched reliability, cost-efficiency, and launch cadence. As of mid-2026, the company maintains a 100% success rate across dozens of Falcon launches this year and conducts the vast majority of U.S. orbital missions - carrying both commercial and government payloads, including NASA crew and cargo to the ISS as well as national security satellites. SpaceX's Falcon family commands over 80% of the U.S. launch market and the bulk of global mass-to-orbit capability thanks to proven reusability. 

Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin, meanwhile, suffered a significant setback last week, when its New Glenn rocket exploded during a static fire test at Launch Complex 36 in Cape Canaveral. The incident destroyed the vehicle and caused extensive damage to the launch pad - including collapsed lightning towers and ground infrastructure - forcing months of repairs and further delaying the company's entry into heavy-lift competition.

Blue Origin now faces additional hurdles in catching up to SpaceX, particularly as it seeks NASA Artemis contracts and commercial missions for Amazon's Project Kuiper.

Major AI Computing Deal with Anthropic

The amended filing also discloses that SpaceX has an agreement to provide Anthropic PBC with artificial intelligence computing capacity consisting of approximately 325,000 Nvidia chips. The deal is valued at $1.25 billion per month and runs through May 2029. After an initial three-month period, either party can terminate with 90 days notice.

SpaceX noted in its risk factors that some compute service customers may rely on external capital to meet their payment obligations.

New Risk Factor: Water Scarcity?

SpaceX added water scarcity as a formal risk factor. Drought conditions, increased competition for water sources, and potential regulatory restrictions could raise costs or limit the company's ability to cool its data center infrastructure. This reflects growing scrutiny over the high water and power demands of AI data centers.

Bloomberg last week reported that SpaceX is now targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion for the IPO vs. $2T - which Elon Musk said was "false" in response after we surfaced the claim. Either way, the IPO is more or less a major referendum on the AI-fueled bull market.

The company is targeting pricing on June 11 and a trading debut on June 12 under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:15

"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In May

Zero Hedge -

"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In May

With US hard data taking a beating (relative to expectations) last week (red line below), analysts remain hopeful that US Manufacturing will hold up (durable goods orders were solid) with this morning's Manufacturing PMIs set to signal stability.

  • The final May S&P Global US Manufacturing rose to 55.1 (down from the 55.3 flash print) but the strongest since April 2022

  • ISM's Manufacturing PMI survey also signaled improvement, up from 52.7 to 54.0 (better than 53.0 expected).

"At first glance, the manufacturing sector seems to be firing on all cylinders but lift the hood and the picture is not so clear," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The headline PMI has hit a four-year high, with strong factory production growth for a second successive month in response to a further marked upturn in order books, but since the outbreak of war in the Middle East we have seen production and demand buoyed by stock building as companies worry over rising prices and supply difficulties.

This stockpiling was again widely evident in May and makes it hard to take an accurate reading on the underlying health of the manufacturing economy, as growth will cool once this stock build has run its course," Williamson noted.

"The incidence of supply chain delays is the highest since August 2022, with the buying of safety stocks not only adding to the supply squeeze from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but also pushing prices higher for a wide variety of inputs.

Williamson ends on a more ominous - stagflationary - notes: warning that the resulting steep jump in producer costs sends a worrying signal that broader economy inflation has further to rise in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:08

"Working Better": Saylor Teases BTC Buy After Strategy Sells For First Time Since 2022

Zero Hedge -

"Working Better": Saylor Teases BTC Buy After Strategy Sells For First Time Since 2022

Bitcoin is extending its recent weakness overnight (hurt by US-Iran tensions escalating again), trading back below its 100DMA after Strategy (MSTR) sold 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 at an average net price of $77,135 a coin, totaling $2.5 million (disclosed in an 8-K filing on Monday).

Proceeds from the bitcoin sales are expected to be used to fund distributions on preferred stock, the firm said.

This is the first time Strategy has sold bitcoin since December 2022, when the company offloaded 704 BTC, according to onchain analyst Ai Yi.

However, the firm reportedly bought 810 BTC just two days after the sale at a lower price in a tax loss trade.

Strategy now holds a total of 843,706 BTC following the reduction - worth around $61 billion - bought at an average price of $75,699 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $63.9 billion, including fees and expenses.

In addition, for the week, Strategy raised $128.3 million through its at-the-market (ATM) common stock program and allocated a small portion of the proceeds to increase its U.S. dollar cash reserve from $871 million to $900 million.

Anticipated?

The Block.co reports that Strategy's bitcoin sale was anticipated.

Its executives previously said during its first-quarter 2026 earnings call that it may sell some of its holdings to fund dividends for STRC, Strategy's perpetual preferred stock designed to maintain a $100 par value and offer high yields to investors.

Saylor explained then that the sale would eventually help Strategy buy more bitcoin than it would sell to cover STRC's dividends.

He also noted that the firm's current position requires bitcoin to appreciate at 2.3% annually for its existing holdings to cover STRC dividend obligations indefinitely, without selling any common stock.

Today's sale announcement comes shortly after onchain data from Arkham Intelligence showed that Strategy moved roughly 411.6 BTC from its custody account on Coinbase Prime to a cold wallet address on the platform on May 28.

This prompted the odds of Strategy selling bitcoin before the end of 2026 to surge to 84%.

Strategy also noted it has purchased 2.6 times the amount of bitcoin mined in 2026 so far, describing MSTR as a "BitVac."

"Working Better"

But, as CoinTelegraph.com reports, before the 8-K filing was released (but after the actual sales), Strategy chairman Michael Saylor on Sunday signaled the Bitcoin treasury company would be announcing fresh purchases of the cryptocurrency in the coming days.

The social media post comes just days ahead of a proxy vote that depends in large part on retailer shareholders to enable semi-monthly dividend payouts on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

“Working Better” was Saylor's tweet late Sunday morning to accompany a bubble chart tracking Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) purchases over the past nearly six years.

“Working Better” tweet. Source: Michael Saylor

That chart, from Iceland-registered StrategyTracker.com, has been consistently posted by Saylor in the days ahead of news of a purchase by the biggest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.

To be sure, any purchases to be announced will likely reflect the company bought at or below the average cost of previous BTC purchases.

Retail investors pressed to vote on STRC dividend change

Strategy is proposing to pay semi-monthly dividends on STRC, instead of monthly. The company claims that if approved and adopted, it will lead to reduced reinvestment lag, enhanced liquidity, market efficiency and increased price stability.

Just days ahead of the June 7 proxy vote deadline, Saylor and Strategy are pressing retail shareholders to return their proxy votes. On an internal company channel, Strategy’s investor relations team posted a message to all employees concerning the company’s 2026 annual meeting and provided links to the proposals under consideration by shareholders.

Part of message to Strategy employees from internal website. Source: Company filing on Edgar

“The amendment for STRC to pay semi-monthly dividends, needs 50% of all 85M shares outstanding as of April 17, 2026, to pass, which means every single vote counts,” read a May 28 post on Strategy’s verified feed on X.com.

CEO Phong Le posted a video a day earlier thanking STRC shareholders for their trust.

“I wanted to personally walk you through the proposed amendment and what it means for you,” he said as an introduction to the minute-and-a-half video.

Retail investors have shown limited interest in casting proxy votes. A November research note from The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance revealed data that showed retail investors have consistently voted only about 29% of their owned shares during the past five proxy voting seasons. Institutional holders have voted about 77%.

A Cyclical Bottom?

Bloomberg's Andre de Silva writes that while a steep record daily capital drain in US Bitcoin ETFs exposes immediate fatigue, past precedent suggests that such severe capitulation frequently cleanses short-term positioning and signals a cyclical bottom for the digital asset.

AI infrastructure and semiconductor equities have attracted the most attention, but because Bitcoin typically retains its status as a high-beta proxy for broader risk appetite during macro expansions, this temporary diversion of capital suggests that a classic catch-up rally remains on the table.

The initial euphoria surrounding US Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, giving way to an unprecedented streak of redemptions. Investors pulled $2.96 billion from the funds over 10 consecutive trading sessions to close out May, according ETF providers. That culminated in $2.4 billion in total net outflows for the month. This sharp reversal stands in contrast to the preceding two months of healthy institutional demand, which saw combined inflows of over $3.3 billion across March and April. The late-May selling pressure spared no one, with BlackRock’s usually resilient IBIT hit by a near-record single-day redemption following a massive off-exchange block trade.

This capital flight highlights a stark divergence recently between digital and traditional risk assets.

While global stock benchmarks like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Asia’s top indices such as the Kospi scale new heights, Bitcoin has decoupled from the broader market rally.

Even the prospects of supportive regulation have failed to arrest the slide. This includes the Senate Banking Committee recently advancing the landmark Clarity Act to establish a formal crypto market framework, an initiative that Polymarket prices with a 55% chance of being officially signed into law this year. Instead, capital is aggressively migrating toward memory chip and semiconductor companies and, as indicted by David Savage, including Asia, leaving Bitcoin looking sluggish by comparison.

Beneath the surface, this purge of the ETF channel acts as a reliable contrarian indicator.

Historically, when US Bitcoin ETF flows hit these types of extreme negative troughs, they frequently coincided with local market bottoms.

Similar washouts during early 2025 preceded sharp, multi-month recoveries once institutional selling hit exhaustion.

While crypto sentiment has dropped into ‘Fear’ territory according to the Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is a multi-factor market sentiment tracker, this cleansing of overleveraged or short-term positions might be exactly what the digital asset needs to reset and build a sustainable floor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:50

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP, ISMs And Fed Speakers

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP, ISMs And Fed Speakers

The key event for markets outside of Iran (which is once again front and center following news that Iran is halting all exchange of messages with the US in protest of Israeli crimes in Lebanon) will be Friday’s US May employment report. Economists forecast a notable moderation in payroll growth compared with the relatively strong pace seen earlier in the spring. Headline nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by around consensus 89k, down from 115k in April, while private payrolls are forecast at roughly 89k after 123k previously. This slowing partly reflects expectations that hiring in sectors that have been particularly strong in recent months – notably transportation and warehousing, as well as retail trade – begins to cool. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3% (consensus also 4.3%). 

Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the rest of the US labor market data flow should reinforce the Federal Reserve’s growing confidence that labor market conditions are stabilizing. Tomorrow, the April JOLTS report will shed light on the gross hiring and separation flows that underpinned last month’s solid net job gains. On Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls report is forecast to show a gain of around 118k, up from 109k previously, consistent with the strength seen in ADP’s high-frequency indicators. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to remain relatively low, although there is scope for a temporary uptick to around 220k, partly reflecting seasonal distortions associated with the Memorial Day holiday period. 

Beyond the labor market, the focus will also be on whether recent resilience in US economic activity is sustained. Today, the May manufacturing ISM survey is forecast to rise to around 53.0 from 52.7 in April, supported by encouraging signals from regional Fed surveys. Later in the week, Thursday’s services ISM is expected to edge higher to roughly 53.9 from 53.6. That said, the backdrop for consumer spending remains mixed. Elevated petrol prices and tariff-related increases in core goods inflation are emerging headwinds, and economists therefore expect tomorrow’s unit motor vehicle sales to remain broadly flat at around 16.0 million annualized.

Alongside the data, Federal Reserve communication will be closely watched. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish its Beige Book, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across districts. Fed speak is scattered through the week but it's mostly from officials who have spoken recently so it shouldn't break new ground. 

Outside the US, Europe will see several important inflation releases. Today, the ECB publishes its consumer expectations survey, providing an update on household inflation views. Tomorrow, the Eurozone releases its flash CPI estimate for May, following national releases over recent days and today. Further inflation data are due on Thursday from Switzerland and Sweden, adding to the regional picture ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.

Central bank speakers are also in focus outside of the Fed. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Thursday, while Bank of England Governor Bailey appears multiple times through the week, including tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is due to speak on Wednesday.

In China we've already had most of the PMIs over the weekend and this morning (see more above) but the private sector services PMI is out on Wednesday. In Japan, Friday brings labour cash earnings data. Our Chief Japan economist expects wage growth to slow to around 2.5% year on year, from 2.8% previously. Elsewhere in the region, Australia releases its Q1 GDP figures on Wednesday.

Finally, the corporate earnings calendar is also busy, with several high-profile releases. In the technology sector, results are due from Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike during the week, while consumer-focused names reporting include Inditex, Dollar General and Lululemon Athletica. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview. 

Source: Earnings Whispers

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 1

  • Data: US May ISM index, April construction spending, China RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan Q1 Ministry of Finance’s financial statements statistics of corporations, Italy May manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone April M3, unemployment rate, Canada May manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Q1 GDP
  • Central banks: ECB’s consumer expectations survey, ECB’s Schnabel speaks, BoC’s Rogers speaks
  • Earnings: Meituan, HPE

Tuesday June 2

  • Data: US April JOLTS report, May total vehicle sales, UK April net consumer credit, M4, Japan May monetary base, France April budget balance, Eurozone May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Kashkari and Hammack speak, BoE's Bailey and Greene speak
  • Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General

Wednesday June 3

  • Data: US May ADP report, ISM services, April factory orders, China RatingDog services PMI, UK May official reserves changes, Italy May services PMI, Eurozone April PPI, Canada Q1 labor productivity, May services PMI, Australia Q1 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed’s Barr and Logan speak, ECB's Elderson and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Ueda speaks
  • Earnings: Broadcom, Inditex, Crowdstrike, Medtronic 
  • Other: OECD economic outlook

Thursday June 4

  • Data: US initial jobless claims, UK May new car registrations, construction PMI, Eurozone April retail sales, Switzerland May CPI, Sweden May CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Daly speaks, ECB's Lagarde speaks, BoE's Bailey speaks
  • Earnings: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

Friday June 5

  • Data: US May jobs report, April consumer credit, Japan April labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, France April current account balance, trade balance, industrial production, Italy April retail sales, Canada May labour force survey
  • Central banks: BoE's Bailey and Dhingra speak, BoE’s DMP survey

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Barr and Presidents Kashkari, Hammack, Logan, Barkin, and Daly.

Monday, June 1 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May final (consensus 55.3, last 55.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, May (GS 53.5, consensus 53.0, last 52.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 53.5 in May, reflecting convergence to the level implied by regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 0.2pt to 54.9 in May.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%)

Tuesday, June 2 

  • 01:50 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel discussion at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference. On May 29, President Kashkari—who dissented from the implicit easing bias in the April FOMC’s post-meeting statement along with Presidents Hammack and Logan—said that “it’s premature to conclude we need to be raising rates right away,” adding that “we need to keep watching the data and how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before I want to make any adjustments.”
  • 08:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on monetary policy in a moderated Q&A at the City Club of Cleveland. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On May 7, President Hammack said that “the statement we put out [at the April FOMC meeting] is that interest rates were on hold, but we have the signal in there that it’s more likely that the next move will be a move down,” adding that she thought “that was a little bit misleading given my view of where the economy is.” She also noted that in her baseline outlook, “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.”
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (GS 7,000k, consensus 6,857k, last 6,866k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged up to 7.0mn in April based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
  • 10:00 AM BLS releases 2025Q4 QCEW data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the 2025Q4 release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). In the April release for personal income, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that downward revisions to compensation through the end of 2025 reflected the incorporation of wage and salary data from the 2025Q4 QCEW, suggesting that the employment numbers from the QCEW are likely to again suggest downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls in the next annual benchmarking.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 16.3mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 15.9mn)

Wednesday, June 3 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, May (GS +125k, consensus +118k, last +109k)
  • 09:00 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a moderated discussion at the Community Developers Bankers Association 2026 Peer Forum in Washington, DC. On May 5, Governor Barr said that “the longer [the war in Iran] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we are seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” He also noted that “we are in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 50.9, last 50.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 54.0, consensus 53.9, last 53.6): We estimate that the ISM services index edged up to 54.0 in May. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased slightly in May but remained below the latest ISM services reading (+0.5pt to 52.8).
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS +5.3%, consensus +4.5%, last +1.5%)
  • 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige book, June meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the April FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with two Districts reporting little change and two reporting slight to modest declines. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
  • 04:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated conversation at the University of Texas at El Paso. Moderated Q&A is expected. On May 1, in a statement explaining her dissent from the implicit easing bias in the April FOMC’s post-meeting statement, President Logan said that she was “increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the way to the FOMC’s 2% target.” She also noted that “the conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures.”

Thursday, June 4 

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 30 (GS 220k, consensus 211k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 23 (consensus 1,778k, last 1,786k)
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%): Unit labor costs, Q1 final (GS +1.7%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.3%): We estimate that nonfarm productivity growth will be revised down by 0.2pp to +0.6% quarterly annualized in the second release for 2026Q1. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.1%, a much stronger pace than the 1.5% average pace in the pre-pandemic cycle. We estimate that unit labor costs—compensation divided by output—will be revised down by 0.6pp to +1.7%.
  • 08:30 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak in a fireside chat at the Belmont Country Club in Ashburn, Virginia. Moderated Q&A with audience is expected. On May 21, President Barkin noted that “with inflation above our 2% target for five years now, it’s worth asking whether the cumulative impact of so many waves risks loosening the anchor [for inflation expectations].” He added that he sees policy as “well positioned” to manage risks to both the labor market and inflation.
  • 01:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak in a conversation at the Bloomberg Technology Summit in San Francisco. Moderated Q&A is expected. On May 29, President Daly said that “there is no urgency to make a [policy] adjustment,” as “policy is in a good place.” She added that “we need to know when the war ends and how oil prices behave afterwards” before considering further policy changes.

Friday, June 5 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, May (GS +60k, consensus +89k, last +115k); Private payroll employment, May (GS +65k, consensus +89k, last +123k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, May (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 60k in May. On the positive side, layoffs remained low between survey weeks. On the negative side, the big data indicators of job growth we track slowed and we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in May. On one hand, continuing claims declined further between survey weeks. But on the other hand, the May unemployment rate appears to suffer from modest positive residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has increased in each of the last three Mays by an average of 0.12pp) and the bar for rounding up to 4.4% is not high from an unrounded 4.34% in April. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month in May, reflecting positive calendar effects.
  • 12:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on supervision and regulation at the Kogod School of Business in Washington, DC. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:41

Moderna Snags $50 Million Ebola Vax Contract

Zero Hedge -

Moderna Snags $50 Million Ebola Vax Contract

Moderna is receiving up to $50 million to accelerate the development of an Ebola vaccine, as the virus continues to spread in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The funding is coming from global health organization ​CEPI, which told Reuters that it was possible to bring the vaccines to trial phase within a couple of months. 

CEPI said it would also invest up to $8.6 million for a shot developed by the University of Oxford and manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, and an initial $3.2 million for a vaccine developed by the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. -Reuters

"Every day counts in the race against this deadly disease," said Richard Hatchett, head of CEPI, adding that the vaccines are on "a not infinitely distant horizon."

That said, Hatchett also cautioned that vaccine development can be unpredictable, plus there's a 'challenging security situation' in eastern Congo that might make trials complex - which, includes (most recently) locals setting fire to an Ebola treatment center after they were stopped from retrieving the body of a dead man. 

The crowd set fire to two tents fitted with eight beds run by a medical charity called The Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), said Deputy Senior Commissioner Jean-Claude Mukendi, head of the public security department in Ituri Province.

Mukendi said the youths had not understood the protocols for burying a suspected Ebola victim.

“His family, friends, and other young people wanted to take his body home for a funeral even though the instructions from the authorities during this Ebola virus outbreak are clear,” Mukendi said. “All bodies must be buried according to the regulations.”

So far there have been 282 confirmed cases and 42 deaths in the recent outbreak, and around 1,100 suspected cases, according to the African CDC and the World Health Organization.

Beyond the DRC, nine cases have been confirmed in Uganda, including one death.

Two weeks to stop the uncontrollable anal bleeding and 50% chance of death? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:30

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