"Decades Of Underinvestment": LA Firefighters Turn To Voters Amid Budget Crisis

Los Angeles firefighters say years of underfunding have pushed their department into crisis, forcing them to appeal directly to voters for money to cover what they describe as basic public safety needs—even as the city spends about $1 billion a year on homelessness programs, according to the NY Post.

This week, firefighters launched petition drives to place a half-cent sales tax increase on the November 2026 ballot. The measure would fund additional firefighters, new engines, and repairs to aging fire stations, which supporters describe as a last resort after repeated warnings to City Hall went unanswered.

“Due to decades of underinvestment, our fire department currently operates with the same number of firefighters as in the 1960s, six fewer stations, and five times the call load,” said Rich Ramirez, an LAFD paramedic. “The LAFD is half the size needed to keep LA safe, so your LAFD firefighters and paramedics are appealing directly to voters to provide funding for more personnel, equipment, and stations so that we can arrive on time to save lives and property when seconds can make the difference between life and death.”

The NY Post writes that call volume has soared. In 1960, LAFD responded to about 101,000 calls a year. Today, firefighters handle more than 514,000 calls annually, with staffing levels largely unchanged. Average response times now near eight minutes, almost double national standards, and the city has fewer than one firefighter per 1,000 residents.

City Councilmember Traci Park said the department’s condition reflects years of neglect. “We have million-dollar fire engines out of service with weeds growing around their tires,” she said. “I’ve been blowing the whistle on the lack of staffing, funding and resources at the fire department since I took office.”

Firefighters say homelessness has driven a significant share of the surge. Between 2018 and 2024, incidents tied to people experiencing homelessness made up roughly one-third of all LAFD fire calls, while trash fires jumped nearly 475% over the past decade.

Despite the increased demand, LAFD operates on about $923 million to protect nearly 3.9 million residents—about $238 per person—compared with more than $22,000 spent annually per unhoused individual.

If approved, the half-cent sales tax would raise an estimated $324 million in its first year. The funds would be restricted to core fire services, overseen by audits and a civilian commission, and supporters must gather 154,000 signatures within 180 days to qualify the measure for the ballot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 18:25

This Could Be The Big One

Authored by weather observer Ryan Hall, 

There are winter storms, and then there are storms that come from a real pattern shift. The kind that don't just brush one region, but impact a big chunk of the country.

This upcoming setup is starting to look like the second type.

Over the last day or so, confidence has increased that we're heading into a legitimate winter storm window late this week into the weekend. The signal is becoming clearer across guidance, and the ingredients are lining up in a way that usually gets my attention.

The Big Picture

A strong Arctic high is pushing into the central and eastern United States. This isn't a quick shot of cold air. It's a deep, dense cold dome that sets up first and stays in place.

At the same time, a southern stream trough is expected to eject out of the Southwest. That system will pull moisture northward over the top of the cold air already in place at the surface.

That overrunning setup is one of the more efficient ways to produce widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the South and East.

About the Analogs

You may see comparisons to past storms like January 1988 or February 2010 being mentioned. It's important to be careful with that.

No two storms are exactly alike, and analogs aren't about matching totals or impacts. Where they can be useful is in highlighting similar large-scale processes. In this case, things like a strong southwestern trough, deep cold air already in place, and a steady moisture feed overrunning the cold dome.

In some respects, this setup has more cold air to work with and a broader moisture source than those events did at similar lead times. That's why it stands out.

Days 4-5: Friday Focus

By Friday, attention shifts to the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Snow and mixed precipitation look increasingly likely from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into parts of the Tennessee Valley. This part of the storm will likely feature a sharp gradient between snow, sleet, and freezing rain, especially near the southern edge of the cold air.

Small shifts in track or temperature profiles could have large impacts in this region.

Days 6-7: Weekend Evolution

As we head into Saturday and Sunday, the system is expected to move east across the Southeast, with the potential to turn northeast near the coast.

Cold air is already established well north of the system, which raises confidence that much of the precipitation will fall as wintry weather. The biggest question now is how far north the heavier precipitation shield extends and how much phasing occurs between northern and southern stream energy.

That will determine whether the highest impacts remain focused on the Mid-Atlantic or expand farther north.

What I'm Watching

• Strength and placement of the Arctic high

• Timing and amplitude of the southern stream trough

• How quickly the streams interact

• Placement of the rain-snow line

• Icing potential along the southern edge

These details should come into better focus over the next few days.

Bottom Line

This is shaping up to be a potentially high-impact winter storm affecting a large portion of the Southern and Eastern U.S.

It's still too early to lock in exact totals or specific cities. But it's early enough to say this is a system worth taking seriously.

If you live from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, this is one you should be planning around, not ignoring.

We'll keep refining the details as the data comes in. If the signal weakens, we'll say that. But right now, this setup has the look of a storm that could end up being memorable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 18:00

Newsom Strains To Flip Script On California's Failures

Authored by Susan Crabtree via American Greatness,

It’s an odd predicament for a leading Democratic presidential contender.

Gavin Newsom’s biggest strength—political spin and performance come almost second nature to him—could also be his biggest liability as he strains to remake the tarnished image of the state he has governed for the last seven years.

Newsom, with his smooth-talking, rapid-fire responses and his attempt to out-Trump Trump on social media aggression, is everything Kamala Harris wasn’t in 2024. But neither Californian can easily shake the biggest millstone dragging down their White House ambitions. Their failed progressive policies have sullied the Golden State’s image, driving up prices, homelessness, and mismanagement. The failures have not only driven citizens away but are also likely to turn off voters in swing battleground districts as well.

California’s failures weren’t Harris’ biggest weakness in 2024—her word salads were. But the Golden State’s downward spiral was a close second.

As wildfire victims held vigils and prayer circles on the anniversary of the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires, Newsom on Thursday attempted to flip the script on California’s role as a GOP punchline.

In his final State of the State address after years of releasing videotaped remarks, Newsom cast Trump’s control of Washington as a “carnival of chaos” amid the Democratic furor over an ICE agent shooting and killing a woman in Minnesota. He then positioned California as a “beacon” of fairness and resistance to Trump’s heavy-handed rule.

Addressing the California legislature, which had just observed a moment of silence for the slain Minnesota woman, Renee Nicole Good, Newsom repeatedly pointed to Trump as a power-hungry threat to democracy who abused his power to call in the National Guard to quell unrest over ICE arrests and raids.

“The president believes that might makes right, that the courts are simply speed bumps, not stops. That democracy is a nuisance to be circumvented. Secret police, businesses being raided, windows smashed, citizens detained, citizens shot, masked men snatching people in broad daylight, people disappearing,” Newsom charged.

“None of this is normal,” he added.

After throwing out the red meat for the Democratic base, Newsom then set out to normalize California’s dizzying array of failures under his watch.

“The state is providing a different narrative—an operational model, a policy blueprint for others to follow,” he told state lawmakers.

Newsom’s defiant defense of his state as a shining example for others to emulate may come as a shock for those who haven’t been watching his reinvention as a social media agitator and leader of the national redistricting battle.

But Newsom’s attempt to go on offense on his biggest weakness—his policy failures—was his most audacious and sweeping thus far.

After mimicking Trump’s belligerent social media style, Newsom stole another Trump play, labeling the state’s critics as suffering from “California Derangement Syndrome,” a revision of the “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” which MAGA deploys to brush off condemnation.

“The declinists,” the pundits and conservative critics, simply don’t know the updated facts, Newsom asserted, arguing that they are working to “tear down, to try to attack all of our progress.”

Early data for 2025, he said, indicate a 9% decline in homelessness, the first drop after an explosion of unsheltered people in California. He failed to mention that from 2019 to 2024, under his watch, homelessness rose to 188,000, a net increase of 37,000, or 24%, even though the state spent roughly $24 billion trying to curb it.

“So, our investments paid off,” he claimed without an explanation.

Newsom acknowledged that the decline was “not good enough,” and more work needs to be done as long as big homeless encampments still exist in major cities around the state. He failed to mention the high number of homelessness deaths across the state that could be contributing to the 9% decline, as well as the danger of allowing any encampments to remain.

Just hours after the speech, a fire at a homeless camp in a Los Angeles suburb broke out, the second in the last two weeks.

Newsom also claimed credit for “double-digit decreases in crime” across California, without acknowledging that those figures are still higher than pre-pandemic levels in some areas and that property crime continues to plague major cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles.

While touting minor California successes, he often followed up by acknowledging that there is still “work to do” when it comes to bringing down housing costs, overall “affordability,” lowering crime rates, and improving fire insurance coverage.

Though he noted that he had debated whether or not to mention high-speed rail, another frequent target for fiscal conservative attacks, he hailed the $13.8 billion spent so far and progress on projects in the state’s agricultural Central Valley as one of the “great economic investments” in the region. Those lines, he said, “will make commute times shorter and make life more affordable.” He failed to mention that the project was launched in 2008, and more than 17 years later, no trains are running.

Newsom even touted California’s status as having the highest taxes of any state in the country, stressing that Democrats in the state had designed the most “progressive” system in the country, which he argued is far fairer for middle-class and low-wage earners.

“So, the question to all of you—who are the high-tax states? Just consider Texas. Just consider Florida, the two most regressive tax states in America,” Newsom said. “They’re hammering their low-income earners. They’re hammering them more than their wealthiest. Who are the high-tax states? California stands for fairness.”

California Republican Party Chairwoman Corrin Rankin, responding to the address, cast Newsom as not only out of touch but also deranged.

“Governor Newsom told Californians that homelessness is down, crime is at record lows, schools are improving, and Los Angeles is recovering after the Palisades fires,” she said.

“Governor Newsom painted a picture of a California that exists in his imagination.”

Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Republican representing parts of Sacramento in Congress, assailed the address as pure gaslighting.

“For once, Newsom is right,” he said.

“California has led the nation during his tenure in homelessness, unemployment, poverty, illiteracy, gas prices, electricity costs, debt, and outmigration. That is the true state of our state.”

Kiley also provided a preview of the conservative line of attack that could haunt the governor leading into the 2028 presidential race.

“California, also, of course, leads the nation in fraud … Minnesota’s fraud scandals have just ended Tim Walz’s political career,” Kiley said.

“California’s should likewise end Gavin Newsom’s.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 17:10

Kansas School Bans Students From Naming Kirk, Trump Or Jesus As Role Models

Yet another example of why American parents are increasingly pulling their kids out of public institutions and turning to home schooling.  Parents at an elementary school in Kansas are upset after students were reportedly told that they were not allowed to list President Donald Trump, late conservative activist Charlie Kirk and even Jesus Christ as their role models for an assignment. 

The incident at Marshall Elementary School in Eureka, Kansas occurred in October and only recently came to light because students were originally instructed not to tell their parents about what happened.  The American Center for Law & Justice, described as “a politically conservative, Christian-based legal organization,” has filed a formal civil rights complaint with the school.

The complaint accuses the district and Marshall Elementary School of religious discrimination, political or viewpoint discrimination, violation of free speech rights and retaliation.  Students say a school guidance counselor, Kacey Countryman, gave sixth-graders an assignment called “Find Your Voice” as part of their "Leader In Me" program.  They were asked to identify their role models, but conservative role models were apparently not allowed.  

“When a student identified Charlie Kirk as a role model, the guidance counselor got very uncomfortable and refused to allow this name to be written on the board, yelling that he was ‘not a hero,’ and that he was not a role model,” the complaint says.  When a student chose Trump as their role model, the guidance counselor reportedly had the same response.

Another parent says their child picked Jesus and was also denied.

Unreal. Sixth grade students at a Kansas public school were told they could not name Charlie Kirk as a role model for an assignment.

The assignment was called “Find Your Voice,” in which the students were asked to identify their role models.

“When a student identified Charlie… pic.twitter.com/S3yS39qBlW

— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) January 16, 2026

The complaint notes that “When a student selected President Donald J. Trump as a role model, the guidance counselor reiterated her prohibition even more angrily, stating that students could not write political or religious figures on the board, and in fact excluded political and religious topics altogether."

Reports note that children picking secular and potentially controversial figures did not receive the same backlash from the counselor.

The ACLJ has investigated a number of similar incidents in the past involving public school officials, including a recent controversy involving a Hawaiian school teacher who was punished by the district for allowing her students to talk about the assassination of Charlie Kirk during a Constitution Day discussion on free speech. 

Adminstrators placed a disciplinary memo in her file threatening future sanctions and told her she must immediately “shut down” any spontaneous student discussions on undefined “controversial issues.”

These kinds of censorious policies run completely contrary to the spirit of the First Amendment and basic civics once taught in US schools in previous generations.  The common conservative accusation that public schools have become poisonous indoctrination centers for the political left is proved correct weekly by similar stories of students being silenced for normal speech.  

The crackdown accelerated during the Biden Administration, along with the invasion of woke political propaganda into many taxpayer funded schools.  The agenda is clear:  Children are being bullied and extorted into abandoning conservative ideals.  They are forced to embrace progressive talking points as a way to keep peace in their academic lives.

There is no doubt that the rise of woke insanity in American society directly coincides with the decline of parental rights and participation in educational institutions.  School officials believe their job is not to simply teach basic academic mastery; they think their job is to program the next generation with far-left software.  Activist teachers and administrators believe their mission is to "correct" the principles instilled in children by their parents, and condition students to join the liberal hive mind.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 16:45

US Lender Newrez To Accept Crypto Holdings In Mortgage Approval

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Newrez plans to treat eligible cryptocurrency holdings as qualifying assets in its mortgage underwriting process, a move that could broaden access to home loans for crypto holders.

The change is expected to take effect in February across the lender’s non-agency products, covering home purchases, refinancings and investment properties.

While borrowers can already use assets such as stocks and bonds in underwriting, crypto holders have typically been required to sell their positions.

At launch, Newrez said it will recognize Bitcoin, Ether, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by those assets, and US dollar-backed stablecoins.

The crypto assets must be held with US-regulated crypto exchanges or fintech platforms, brokerages or nationally chartered banks, the company said.

Under the policy, cryptocurrency holdings considered in underwriting may have valuations adjusted to reflect market volatility, while borrowers would still be required to cover closing costs and make mortgage payments in US dollars.

Newrez chief commercial officer Leslie Gillin said about 45% of Gen Z and Millennial investors own cryptocurrency, adding that the policy is aimed at broadening access to homeownership among younger buyers.

US regulators weigh crypto’s role in mortgage underwriting

The move by Newrez follows policy discussions in the US over whether digital assets should be considered in mortgage risk assessments.

In June 2025, the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to develop proposals examining how to consider cryptocurrencies as assets in single-family mortgage risk assessments without conversion to US dollars. 

Less than two months later, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the 21st Century Mortgage Act, which would codify the FHFA directive.

Lummis said the bill addresses housing affordability challenges for younger Americans, adding that “the American dream of homeownership is not a reality for many young people” and that the legislation reflects the growing number who hold digital assets.

The bill was read twice in the Senate and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, where it has not advanced further.

Although limited in scope, a market already exists for crypto-backed home financing, allowing borrowers to use BTC or ETH as collateral. 

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of Ledn, told Cointelegraph in June that some Bitcoin holders have used their assets to finance real estate purchases without liquidating them.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 16:20

Minneapolis Police Face Mass Exodus As New Paid Leave Program Hits Amid Riots

Minneapolis faces a compounding crisis, as dozens of police officers are expected to tap into a new state paid leave program while the city grapples with anti-ICE riots and a staffing shortage that has stretched the department to its breaking point. 

Between 60 and 100 officers from the Minneapolis Police Department have applied for or plan to apply for the Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) program, which took effect on January 1, according to multiple sources who spoke with Alpha News senior reporter Liz Collin and Crime Watch Minneapolis. The timing could hardly be worse for a city already reeling from violent protests following the shooting death of Renee Good, who was killed by an ICE agent after she attempted to run over a federal officer with her vehicle.

The PFML program was signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz in 2023, which he promoted as a way to give workers time off for family or medical reasons, including up to 20 weeks of paid leave funded with public money. Many had lined up to use the 20-week paid leave window as soon as it opened on January 1. 

“The PFML program allows workers to take up to 12 weeks of medical leave or family leave per year. If someone decides to use a combination of family and medical leave, they can receive benefits for up to 20 weeks,” explains Alpha News. “During that leave, program recipients are paid between 55% and 90% of their regular wages. At present, weekly benefits cannot exceed $1,423 per week. The funding for the program comes from payroll taxes on employers and employees.”

The program also explicitly allows illegal immigrants to access the benefits that police officers use. 

The news of MPD officers applying for the program also comes following the acknowledgement in an email last week to officers from the Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis that MPD morale is at an all-time low. The email detailed the “dangerously low” staffing levels causing stress and burnout, as well as political rhetoric and “inflammatory statements” from elected officials, which is emboldening hostility toward officers.

The department is already struggling daily to fill shifts, as was revealed this week in copies of emails obtained by Crime Watch showing shift sergeants desperately asking for officers to sign up for overtime to fill shifts.

Applications for the program surged quickly, with about 18,000 filed in the first week of the month and roughly 25,000 by last Monday. Initial projections estimated around 130,000 participants over the entire first year. Minneapolis declined to respond directly to Alpha News. Still, it acknowledged on social media that employees, including MPD officers, have requested leave, claiming most applicants were already on leave at the end of 2025 for reasons such as pregnancy, newborn bonding, or caring for a family member, while declining to dispute the reported number of officers involved.

A big problem with the program Walz created is that the statute sets no limit on how many employees from a single department, office, or employer can take leave at the same time, leaving entire units vulnerable to being depleted all at once with no built-in safeguard. Alpha News reports that officers planning to use PFML are required to give 30 days’ notice before going on leave, yet the clustering of applications from Minneapolis police as the program goes live raises serious questions about the timing. The department is now operating with roughly 600 officers, down about 300 from nearly 900 before the pandemic lockdowns and the death of George Floyd. Many officers retired or left the force after that disaster. This time, officers have effectively checked out by applying for paid leave under Walz’s program rather than resigning outright.

Between ongoing rioting, chronic understaffing, and a paid leave program with no guardrails against mass absences, Minneapolis is facing a perfect storm, and its political leaders are the ones to blame. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 15:55

NYC Mayor Mamdani Under Fire Not For Snubbing Black Appointees

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s newly sworn-in mayor, is already facing criticism less than a month into his tenure. Not for his democratic socialist agenda, but for failing to appoint black and Hispanic officials. 

In New York City, the mayor relies heavily on deputy mayors, a group that functions much like a cabinet. Mamdani’s predecessor, Eric Adams, filled his administration with black and Hispanic officials, a stark contrast to Mamdani’s approach. 

According to a New York Times report on Thursday, some black and Latino leaders “worry they are being denied access to power under Mayor Zohran Mamdani and that they may lose the ground they had gained under former Mayor Eric Adams.” 

So far, Mamdani has appointed five deputy mayors. None are black, and only one is Hispanic. 

The imbalance has drawn backlash. 

“He already doesn’t have the best relationship with the Black community,” said political consultant Tyquana Henderson-Rivers. “And it seems like he’s not interested in us because there’s no representation in his kitchen cabinet.” 

It must be so exhausting being a lib. https://t.co/xiZtutq8A5

— Tim Carney (@TPCarney) January 16, 2026

Arc of Justice President Kristen John Foy echoed that concern, warning that Mamdani’s staffing decisions undercut his pledge of diversity. 

“For someone who prides himself on being directly engaged with everyday New Yorkers, to be so tone deaf to the cries of Black and Latinos in the city for access to power is shocking,” Foy said.  

She added, “There are some very good people of color that have been appointed to some high-level positions, but those people are not at the center of the decision-making apparatus in this city.” 

In response, Mamdani spokesperson Dora Pekec dismissed the criticism, claiming that 18 of the administration’s 32 appointees are minorities. 

Mamdani was sworn into office on Jan. 1 after campaigning as a democratic socialist and vowing to enact some of the most radical left-wing policies in New York City history. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 15:30

Gold And Silver Explosion: Something Big Is Happening

Gold and silver prices, according to Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com, are signaling stress under the surface of the economy. From shrinking physical inventories to record central bank buying, precious metals warn that the underlying issues aren’t resolved…

In early 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic hysteria I noted that the covid panic seemed to perfectly coincide with the Federal Reserve’s acceleration of interest rates and asset dumping. This trend, I argued, was a precursor to a Catch-22 scenario I have been warning about for some time.

Since the crash of 2008, the central bank has used stimulus measures and near-zero interest rates to protect “too big to fail” corporations while keeping debt afloat globally. Doing this required the digital printing of tens of trillions of fiat dollars and, inevitably, a sharp devaluation in the greenback.

I predicted that this would lead to stagflationary conditions (which finally hit in 2022), and the conundrum of inflation vs. deflation.

The Federal Reserve could continue to keep rates low and ignore inflationary pressures to avoid a collapse of debt.

Or, they could significantly raise interest rates, let the debt system take its medicine and tumble in price and squelch the effects of inflation by suppressing consumer demand.

Either choice could cause an economic crisis.

Maybe it’s understandable that the Fed decided not to choose.

Instead, they raised rates but not enough to reverse stagflation. They took the middle road and refused to allow the economy to take its much-needed medicine, postponing a reckoning for badly-priced malinvestments.

Essentially, kicking the can down the road for the next administration to deal with.

Consequences of the Fed’s too-little-too-late strategy

This means we are still stuck with the massive price increases we incurred during the Biden Administration.

Granted, the rate of inflation has slowed. But the cost of living is significantly higher than just five years ago. (Remember, above-zero inflation doesn’t mean prices fall – it means they keep rising, but more slowly.)

In 2020 I wrote an article titled Physical Gold Will Soon Break Free from the Paper Market in Spectacular Fashion, predicting skyrocketing precious metals values once this Catch-22 situation became apparent to investors. I predicted that buyers would increasingly drop financial derivatives (futures etc.) in favor of physical delivery of gold and silver, causing physical prices to go parabolic.

This is now happening.

Since I wrote that article, the price of gold per ounce jumped over 200%. Silver prices have exploded by 400%.

• Global inventories of physical metals have plunged

• London vaults are reportedly down 30% since 2022

• Refiners report 10-14 week delays for new bullion bars (vs. normal 2-4 weeks)

• Physical redemptions of commodities contracts have accelerated to historically unprecedented levels

Via Clive Thompson on LinkedIn. Thompson adds: “This marks a dramatic behavioral shift: historically less than 1% of COMEX contracts resulted in physical delivery, but in 2025, some months delivery notices reached 100%.”

Silver is sitting at an all time high of $90 an ounce as I write this. Gold is closing in on $4700 per ounce.

(Maybe large banks like JP Morgan are deliberately backing away from market manipulation for some reason?) Global central bank gold buying has reached historic levels every year since 2022, surpassing even the levels we saw in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis.

All that is background – what does it mean?

The economic singularity

It seems to me that we are witnessing an economic singularity – a moment of great change.

Or, at the very least, the warning signs of an imminent change.

Precious metals prices are trying to tell us something.

The problem is, that message is mostly being ignored, even by more conservative platforms. Not enough people are talking about what’s happening with precious metals and what it means for the economy as a whole.

Here’s what I think…

First, the rush to physical assets suggests that banking institutions, governments and the wealthiest 1% of investors are scrambling to hedge in preparation for a true crisis. (I’m specifying institutions and the very wealthy because a single COMEX gold delivery contract represents 100 oz. of gold, nearly half a million dollars at today’s prices – well outside the typical American family’s means.)

As I noted in 2020, when the banks start rushing to buy physical gold and silver, then the rest of us should do the same. They are likely acting to counteract losses in other assets. Or they are forecasting some kind of geopolitical earthquake that will send prices exploding.

It’s not hard to see the potential for geopolitical conflict right now. European governments have become increasingly hostile to the U.S. over tariffs. They keep trying to start World War III with Russia and so on.

Second, there are the domestic problems caused by protests against immigration enforcement. The deportation issue is merely a convenient excuse for wider conflict between the left and the right. )If ICE agents went home tomorrow and stopped their arrests, the left would find something else to riot about.)

Just as we witnessed in 2020, domestic chaos is a tool for political extortion. In the meantime, civil instability helps fuel the rise in metals.

Third, there are the tensions with Russia and China, who are not happy with the capture of communist dictator Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela’s oil exports have been vital to China’s industrial capacity. Though Venezuela’s supplies only made up around 4.5% of China’s imports, a loss of 4% or more in a volatile global market is unwelcome to say the least.

Venezuela has served as a launching point for military assets in the western hemisphere (including surveillance systems to watch the U.S.). Chinese and Russian weapons failed miserably against U.S. operations, which might lead to escalation going forward.

The larger effects of Maduro’s removal can’t be quantified yet, but they will be consequential.

Most Venezuelans seem overjoyed by their liberation from Maduro. The question is, can we avoid a long-term quagmire? Our military excels at blowing up enemies with precision, but we have a miserable track record at long-term military occupation.

Fourth, let’s not forget the protests in Iran and the potential for regime change there. I have no personal stake in terms of what happens in the Middle East. I think the U.S. should stay out of the mess as much as possible, but I have no illusions that Trump is going to quietly sit back and just watch. He’s proven to be a man of action.

I have to admit, his decisions on foreign policy have been surprisingly effective and welcomed by the populations involved – in most cases at least. That said, when geopolitical conditions shift so quickly, this inevitably sends shockwaves through the global economy. Even when the action is morally correct and strategically necessary, the consequences are unpredictable.

Finally, the Fed appears intent on cutting interest rates without ever addressing the original stagflationary problem. Consumer spending never went down. Debt accumulation, at the federal and the household level, continues to grow. Prices are still high on most goods compared to 2020. The U.S. has to suffer through at least a short-term deflationary period in order to correct for stagflation, and the banks have done everything in their power to avoid this.

In other words, if the Fed continues to cut rates then inflation will a comeback in 2026.

Here’s what happens next

I believe all the right factors are in play for a continued gold and silver run.

I would not be surprised to see silver close to the $200 per ounce mark by 2027. The combination of demand for all the various industrial uses of silver combined with the multi-year supply deficit, on top of the U.S. decision to declare silver a critical mineral – adding in China’s attempts to ban silver exporting PLUS the insatiable demand for silver as an investment? This is a combination of forces all but guaranteed to send price higher. And they aren’t any more “transitory” than the Covid-era inflation spike. I predict these forces will drive the gold/silver ratio to levels last seen during the spike of 2011 (35:1), which would put the price closer to $131 per ounce today.

I’m not seeing any indication that global pressures are going to slow down anytime soon. In fact, I think precious metals are telling us that things are about to get much more chaotic.

Today, maybe more than ever, owning physical gold and silver is a declaration of financial liberty. Of independence from the fiscal chaos of the Federal Reserve and federal government debt.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 14:40

Denmark Skips Davos Forum In Protest Over Deepening Greenland Crisis

The World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos for 2026 is scheduled for this week (Jan. 19-23), focusing on the theme "A Spirit of Dialogue". Day one, which has kicked off Monday, isn't much of a display of "dialogue" as some key officials are absent, amid Europe's ongoing spat with President Trump over the future fate of Greenland.

Among a record number of 400 top political leaders, including over 60 heads of state and government - as well as hundreds of CEO's - conspicuously absent are officials from Denmark, who have decided not to attend this year in protest over the Greenland crisis.

Source: 2weforum.org

"We can confirm that the Danish government will not be represented in Davos this week... Danish government representatives were invited this year, and any decisions on attendance are a matter for the government concerned," the official statement said.

Trump has repeatedly declared that Greenland should become part of the United States, calling it a matter of national security as China and Russia make inroads in the Arctic region, and also questioning Denmark's right to oversee the autonomous resource-rich territory.

Over the weekend Trump took things well past just rhetoric, threatening on Saturday to slap a 10% additional tariff on EU countries, starting on Feb 1, unless there's a deal for America to purchase Greenland.

Eight nations have responded by issuing a firm joint statement saying they stand behind Denmark and the people of Greenland, writing, "Tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral."

These eight include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland - all which also happen to be NATO members.

Europeans have warned that the Greenland issue threatens to unravel the north Atlantic military alliance, especially if Washington were to unilaterally move on Greenland. And more:

• DENMARK FOREIGN MINISTER: YOU CAN'T THREATEN YOUR WAY TO OWNERSHIP OF GREENLAND
• DENMARK FOREIGN MINISTER: IT'S EUROPE THAT WILL RESPOND TO THE TARIFF THREAT, NOT DENMARK

Denmark and a handful of European countries have sent a troop contingency there, while at the same time the White House hasn't appeared to actually send in military forces. NBC newly reports that Trump hasn't said whether he would use force or not to seize Greenland:

As tensions escalate over President Donald Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland, he was guarded Monday in how far he’ll go to take control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory.

Asked if he would use force to seize Greenland, the president said, “No comment,” in a brief telephone interview with NBC News.

Previously US officials have said that given Greenland doesn't have a standing army, or much other defense to speak of, the US wouldn't have to move on it militarily.

EXCLUSIVE: Trump wants a signing ceremony for his Board of Peace in Davos on Thursday. It is unclear which countries will sign. Many invitees want the US to rewrite the terms, sources tell @AlbertoNardelli and me.

The Board of Peace has had a rough landing: it’s been criticised…

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) January 19, 2026

There's still an idea floating around D.C. that the US could just purchase it, and that every Greenlander could receive millions of dollars, and reject Denmark's historic claims on it.

As for Davos, while Denmark will be absent in protest, Kremlin officials will be there. There are plans for Russian officials to meet with US envoys, at a moment Ukraine peace talks have largely stalled.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 14:15

Don Lemon Faces KKK Act Charges On MLK Holiday

Update (1408ET):

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon told conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that former CNN host Don Lemon has been put "on notice" by the Justice Department and could face charges under federal civil-rights laws, including the Ku Klux Klan Act, for his role in storming a church service in Minnesota. Lemon allegedly joined a far-left mob that was on the hunt for a pro-ICE pastor at a St. Paul church. 

"The Klan Act is one of the most important federal civil rights statutes. Its a law that makes it illegal to terrorize and violate the civil rights of citizens. Whenever people conspire to do this, the Klan Act can be used," Dhillon told Johnson. 

Dhillon continued, "Everyone in the protest community needs to know that the fullest force of the federal government is going to come down and prevent this from happening and put people away for a long time."

"There is zero tolerance for this kind of illegal behavior and we will not stand for it," she emphasized. 

Johnson wrote on X, "DOJ confirms Don Lemon has zero 'journalism' protections against FACE Act violations. Lemon was fully aware of the violations and may face KKK Act conspiracy charges."

DOJ Confirms Don Lemon Has ZERO 'Journalism' Protections Against FACE Act Violations, Lemon Was FULLY Aware Of Violations and May Face KKK Act Conspiracy Charges pic.twitter.com/NtILXYO7UR

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 19, 2026

Lemon faces being charged with the KKK Act on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 

Generational run for Trump rn https://t.co/EVY90zepUi pic.twitter.com/DmmxuK3vpy

— Pub (@PubWanghaf) January 19, 2026

*   *   * 

Washed-up former CNN host Don Lemon has been put on notice by the U.S. Department of Justice over claims that he joined a far-left group of anti-ICE protesters who stormed a Sunday church service in St. Paul, Minnesota.

"A house of worship is not a public forum for your protest! It is a space protected from exactly such acts by federal criminal and civil laws! Nor does the First Amendment protect your pseudo journalism of disrupting a prayer service," Harmeet Dhillon, the DoJ's assistant attorney general for civil rights, wrote on X.

"You [Lemon] are on notice!" Dhillon wrote. In a separate post, she said that the FBI has been "activated" and accused the left-wing mob of "desecrating a house of worship and interfering with Christian worshippers."

She also said, "The DoJ's Civil Rights division is investigating the potential violations of the federal FACE Act by these people desecrating a house of worship and interfering with Christian worshippers."

The @CivilRights is investigating the potential violations of the federal FACE Act by these people desecrating a house of worship and interfering with Christian worshippers. @AGPamBondi https://t.co/uZBBv1iuuH

— AAGHarmeetDhillon (@AAGDhillon) January 18, 2026

Dozens of left-wing activists, some potentially paid agitators and others who admitted they were from out of town, stormed the Cities Church sanctuary on Sunday after believing that one of the pastors was the acting director of ICE's St. Paul field office.

Attorney General Pam Bondi wrote: "I just spoke to the pastor in Minnesota whose church was targeted. Attacks against law enforcement and the intimidation of Christians are being met with the full force of federal law. If state leaders refuse to act responsibly to prevent lawlessness, this Department of Justice will remain mobilized to prosecute federal crimes and ensure that the rule of law prevails."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned: "President Trump will not tolerate the intimidation and harassment of Christians in their sacred places of worship."

Baptist minister Paul Chappell condemned Lemon and the left-wing activists:

We condemn the actions of Don Lemon and the group of activists who stormed Cities Church today in St. Paul, Minnesota, in clear violation of the FACE Act. Christians everywhere should demand that the Department of Justice arrest those who participated. We must protect religious liberty in this country.

We condemn the actions of Don Lemon and the group of activists who stormed Cities Church today in St. Paul, Minnesota, in clear violation of the FACE Act. Christians everywhere should demand that the Department of Justice arrest those who participated. We must protect religious… pic.twitter.com/YlkjJC3YCv

— Paul Chappell (@PaulChappell) January 19, 2026

Left-wing violence in Democrat-run blue cities in America is absolutely alarming. The president last week threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to restore order in Minneapolis after dark-money funded nonprofits and militant left-wing groups mounted pressure campaigns to impede federal deportation operations of criminal illegal aliens.

Meanwhile, left-wing Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey has demanded the troops "get the f*** out of Minneapolis." The mayor did admit in a television interview about a network of nonprofits operating a pressure campaign against the federal government.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE: Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey refuses to reveal the identities of the NGOs he's working with to organize protests in his city. The DOJ is investigating the groups with funding and directives from Soros and CCP-linked NGOs. pic.twitter.com/C9cWgIZ5VN

— @amuse (@amuse) January 8, 2026

Trump has sent 3,000 ICE agents to the sanctuary city, with 1,500 troops on standby if social unrest worsens.

What's important to understand is that if temperatures hadn't been averaging around 10F, the Democratic Party and its billionaire-funded NGO network would have unleashed riots and chaos if temperatures had been just a bit warmer. This is a warning that Democrats are preparing to unleash chaos come spring, whether protests, riots, and whatever else, as we've warned - this is part of a color-revolution operation. This is highly organized and structured.

Related:

• NYC Socialists Prepare Mass Mobilization Of 4,000 Anti-ICE Army

Why a left-wing mob and a former CNN host are roaming a sanctuary city hunting for a church pastor sounds like something that would only happen under Marxist regimes in third-world countries.

Lemon, in damage control mode, calls everything that happened "fake news" ... 

NEW: Don Lemon blames the organizer of the group who stormed the MN church after the DOJ launched an investigation into the incident.

Lemon, who uploaded a video of himself defending the mob from inside the church, says he was simply engaged in "an act of journalism."

"Why… pic.twitter.com/t0Fi2SGLiZ

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 19, 2026

Let's not forget that even the deep state publication The Atlantic had to admit an uncomfortable truth for Democrats: "Left-Wing Terrorism Is on the Rise."

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 14:08

Nobel Foundation Says Prize Can't Be Passed On To Others After Trump–Machado Meeting

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Nobel Foundation said Sunday reiterated its prestigious Nobel Peace Prize cannot be passed on to another person after a Venezuelan opposition leader gifted the prize that she won to President Donald Trump last week.

President Donald Trump meets with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado in the Oval Office, during which she presented the President with her Nobel Peace Prize, on Jan. 15, 2026. Daniel Torok/The White House/Handout via Reuters

During a meeting at the White House on Jan. 15, the leader, Maria Corina Machado, gave her Peace Prize medal to Trump, which the president accepted.

However, the Nobel Foundation weighed in on the matter on Sunday, asserting that the prize can’t be transferred.

“One of the core missions of the Nobel Foundation is to safeguard the dignity of the Nobel Prizes and their administration. The Foundation upholds Alfred Nobel’s will and its stipulations,” it said in a statement, referring to the Swedish chemist and inventor of dynamite who started the foundation in the late 19th century.

The will of Nobel had said that the prizes should be given to people who “have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind,” the statement said, adding that his will also “specifies who has the right to award each respective prize.”

“A prize can therefore not, even symbolically, be passed on or further distributed,” the foundation said.

After the prize was awarded to Machado last year, she said she would give it to Trump. She also backed the U.S. military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan socialist leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, although Trump has said that he would not support installing Machado as the leader of Venezuela and instead suggested that Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, be in charge of the country.

In a social media post on Jan. 15, Trump wrote that “Maria presented me with her Nobel Peace Prize for the work I have done. Such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect. Thank you Maria!”

Machado last week said the gift was in recognition of what she called his commitment to the freedom of the Venezuelan people. The White House later posted a photo of Trump and Machado with the president holding up a large, gold-colored frame displaying the medal.

Text of the statement that she wrote said: “To President Donald J. Trump In Gratitude for Your Extraordinary Leadership in Promoting Peace through Strength.” She labeled the gesture as a “Personal Symbol of Gratitude on behalf of the Venezuelan People.”

Trump had openly campaigned for the prize before Machado was awarded it, saying that he was snubbed after having ended wars around the world, including in the Middle East, and is seeking to end more armed conflicts.

Asked on Wednesday if he wanted Machado to give him the prize, Trump told the Reuters news agency: “No, I didn’t say that. She won the Nobel Peace Prize.”

In October 2025, Trump said that Machado had called him, telling him she was “accepting this in honor of you, because you really deserved it.“

After his capture, Maduro and his wife appeared in a federal courtroom in New York and pleaded not guilty to a range of charges, including drug trafficking. The Trump administration said that he was heavily involved in the smuggling of narcotics, namely cocaine, sourced from neighboring Colombia to other countries, including the United States.

The U.S. military under the Trump administration, meanwhile, has seized roughly a half-dozen oil tankers that officials say were trying to evade U.S. sanctions, including a vessel that was flying a Russian flag.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 13:50

Nigerian King Must Pay $72k Restitution For Defrauding NC Medicaid During Pandemic

Authored by Stephen Horn via The Triangle Trumpet,

Ekelekamchukwu Alphonsus Ngwadom, 61, received a suspended sentence requiring three years probation and $72,014.66 in restitution after pleading guilty to twenty-seven felonies in regards to hundreds of Medicaid claims for children’s therapy he fraudulently filed in 2020 and 2021 at his Raleigh practice, Almarch Counseling. (¹, ², ³)

Mugshot: Ekelekamchukwu Alphonsus Ngwadom

It was during this same period that Ngwadom was crowned King or “Eze” of the Mbubu-Amiri kingdom in Nigeria’s Imo State, according to a local news source which also identified him as the Chairman of African Diaspora Coalition of North Carolina and Professor of Psychology and Sociology at the University of Mount Olive. (There are many such “traditional rulers“ recognized by and holding limited power under the Federal Republic of Nigeria).

Ngwadom is listed as the Director of Partnerships and Development for Nigerian Mental Health Practitioners USA and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Nigeria-American Institute for Mental Health.

Records show Ngwadom resides at a Garner address and has voted in Johnston County since 2008.

Investigation and prosecution

According to a search warrant obtained by the Medicaid Investigation Division of the North Carolina Department of Justice, Ngwadom’s practice was flagged by Alliance Health, the manager of the NC Medicaid plan for counties including Wake, Johnston, and Durham.

Ngwadom’s fraud was revealed when a legitimate claim for therapy was submitted for one of the children for which he had filed fraudulent claims, and it was discovered that the family had never received services from Ngwadom or Almarch Counseling.

In the ensuing investigation into the “overlapping services,” a total of 210 fraudulent claims were identified involving children from three families who never receiving services from Ngwadom or Almarch Counseling:

• fifty-two claims for two minor children for a total of $3,037.28

• one hundred and three claims for three minor children for a total of $8,476.88

• fifty-five claims for two minor children for a total of $3,529.46

At sentencing, the state prosecutor explained that Ngwadom had met these families through an after-school program in the years prior to the pandemic, as reported by the News & Observer.

Although the search warrant was obtained and executed in 2022, the charges were not filled until January 2025.

The total amount of fraudulent claims submitted by Ngwadom totaled $72,014.66 across 27 Medicaid recipients between February 18, 2020, and March 18, 2021, according to a press release by Attorney General Jeff Jackson.

Ngwadom plead guilty to twenty-seven counts of obtaining property by false pretenses, a Class H felony, and received a sentence of 6-17 months incarceration, which was suspended with the following conditions:

• three years probation

• ninety days house arrest

• surrendering professional license

• one hundred hours community service

• $72,014.66 in restitution

Zero stars: state inspections find repeat deficiencies at adult care facility

Outside of his counseling practice, Ngwadom’s five-bed adult residential care facility Almarch Family Care in Rocky Mount has racked up numerous statements of deficiency and penalties from the NC Division of Health Service Regulation which licenses and inspects such facilities, which assigned AFC a rating of zero out of four stars at seven out of the last eight inspections.

The NCDHSR website only lists penalties for the past 36 months, in which time AFC has racked up $35,200 in penalties, with $16,700 paid in full and the most recent $18,500 under appeal.

Sixteen statements of deficiencies are listed for the nineteen inspections since 2015, with the most recent statement consisting of eighty-four pages detailing how the facility violated at least nine rules, including by failing to have certified staff, failing to meet health care needs, failing to properly store and administer prescribed medication, and failing to implement an activity program.

AFC is located at an 1825 sq. ft. home in a residential neighborhood in east Rocky Mount; although Ngwadom’s lawyer cited his need to take out a second mortgage in order to pay the $72k restitution, Edgecombe County records show that Ngwadom and his wife Ngozichukwuka Mary Ngwadom sold the AFC property for $10 to a “Chukwuebuka Michael C Ngwadom” less than two months before his sentencing. (The property has a tax valuation of $113,866.00).

Google Streetview: the Rocky Mount residence listed as the location of Ngwadom’s deficient adult care facility Raleigh provider recruited refugees for Medicaid scam

Although perhaps not as prevalent as the recently publicized Somali scams in Minnesota, Ngwoma is not the only Nigerian to be charged with Medicaid fraud relating to “therapy” services in the Raleigh area, with a recent case matching a pattern of fraud enabled by modern immigration and welfare policy.

An investigation into the billing practices of “Our Treatment Center,” a Medicaid provider in Raleigh, resulted in the conviction of seven “mental health practitioners,” according to a June 2025 press release by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Eastern District of North Carolina, with at least three of the fraudsters appearing to have African origins:

• Pius Ondachi (Kenya), Licensed Clinical Mental Health Counselor

• Ifeoma Ezugwu (Nigeria), Licensed Clinical Social Worker Associate

• Queensly Onuzulike (Nigeria), Licensed Clinical Social Worker

The charging documents allege that OTC recruited “refugees” in North Carolina in order to fraudulently bill Medicaid for providing “social assistance” to the “indigent” foreigners for services not covered by the welfare program, including:

• assistance with reading and understanding mail

• understanding the American legal system

• assistance with English as a second language

• transportation to grocery stores, the Division of Motor Vehicles, and other appointments

Ondachi and Onuzulike are alleged to have helped recruit the refugees, obtaining Medicaid Identification Numbers and personally identifiable information from entire households of refugees with the promise of this “assistance with social needs.”

The scheme then involved fraudulently billing these services to Medicaid as “psychotherapy,” with Ondachi, Ezugwu, and Onuzulike each being accused of fabricating psychotherapy notes to justify billing for these non-psychotherapy services, and altering the dates/times of the services provided to meet the Medicaid coverage limitation of only one hour of psychotherapy per patient per day.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 13:27

Trump To Norway: No Nobel, No Greenland? The Letter That Has Shocked Europe

As news began breaking very early Monday of President Trump's scathing letter to Norway over the country's failure to award him the Nobel Peace Prize, some pundits and journalists immediately questioned whether it is real.

But confirmation came soon after. In the letter addressed to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Trump explained that he no longer feels obligated to focus exclusively on peace, while repeating his intent for US control over Greenland. In essence he lays out that no Nobel might turn into no Greenland for Europe (as Denmark exercises control over the resource-rich autonomous territory).

The White House/Reuters

"Dear Jonas: Since your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping 8 wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be dominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States," the US President wrote.

Such is an example of kind of over the top and trolling-style rhetoric in the letter which has given people pause, questioning its authenticity. 

"Denmark cannot protect this land from Russia or China… The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland," he added.

As for whether Trump indeed wrote it, and concerning the bombastic letter's authenticity, Forbes has noted that "According to PBS Newshour’s Nick Schifrin, who first reported on the matter, the letter has been forwarded by the National Security Council staff to multiple European ambassadors in Washington."

The President also in the letter takes the opportunity to bash Denmark, saying it cannot protect Greenland from Russia or China, and again questioned its legal rights to Greenland: "There are no written documents; it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also."

The message in full, as first reported by a PBS correspondent:

Hours later, Norway issues a full, formal response:

Statement from Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre regarding communications with President Donald Trump.

"I can confirm that this is a text message that I received yesterday afternoon from President Trump. It came in response to a short text message from me to President Trump sent earlier on the same day, on behalf of myself and the President of Finland Alexander Stubb. In our message to Trump we conveyed our opposition to his announced tariff increases against Norway, Finland and select other countries. We pointed to the need to de-escalate and proposed a telephone conversation between Trump, Stubb and myself on the same day.

The response from Trump came shortly after the message was sent. It was his decision to share his message with other NATO leaders. Norway’s position on Greenland is clear. Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark on this matter. We also support that NATO in a responsible way is taking steps to strengthen security and stability in the Arctic. As regards the Nobel Peace Prize, I have clearly explained, including to president Trump what is well known, the prize is awarded by an independent Nobel Committee and not the Norwegian Government."

Norway's PM Store has since explained that letter came in response to a joint message he had earlier sent to Trump together with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, rejecting White House plans to impose higher tariffs on Scandinavian countries. Other leading EU countries have also complained and are pushing back publicly:

MERZ: GERMANY, EU ALLIES DETERMINED TO AVOID TARIFF ESCALATION

"We pointed out the need to de-escalate the exchange and requested a phone call between President Trump, President Stubb and myself," Store said, and reiterated Norway's stance on Greenland is unchanged.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 13:15

Japanese Yields Soar To All Time High After PM Takaichi Calls Snap Election Seeking More Spending, Less Taxes

In the rapidly approaching endgame for Japan's monetary experiment, overnight Japanese bond yields hit new record highs, with the long end surging as much as 10bps...

... which in turn helped send gold to fresh record highs above $4,600 (as we discussed previously)...

... after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she will call a national election on February 8 to seek voter backing for everything that guarantees a bond market collapse, namely increased spending, tax cuts and a new security strategy that is expected to accelerate a defence build-up. 

According to Reuters, Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament on Friday ahead of the snap vote for all 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, in her first electoral test since becoming Japan's first female premier in October.

"I am staking my own political future as prime minister on this election," Takaichi told a press conference on Monday. "I want the public to judge directly whether they will entrust me with the management of the nation."

Of course, that's not the story at all: she is promising more spending and less taxes, so of course she will get what she wants from the free shit army. The question is what happens when Japanese bond yields rise so high the country can no longer pretend it isn't facing the biggest bond crisis in history.

Takaichi has promised a two-year halt to a consumption tax of 8% on food, adding that her spending plans would create jobs, boost household spending and increase other tax revenues. And all for the low, low price of another 10-20% in debt/GDP.

Sure enough, the prospect of such a tax cut, which the government estimates would reduce its revenue by 5 trillion yen ($32 billion) a year, sent the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds to a 27-year high earlier on Monday.

Calling an early election allows Takaichi to cement her political role and capitalize on strong public support to tighten her grip on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and shore up her coalition’s fragile majority. The election will test voter appetite for higher spending - i.e., more handouts - at a time when the rising cost of living is the public's top concern. Then again, Takaichi can just blame the BOJ for not raising rates enough. 

Having dealt with deflation for nearly 40 years, runaway prices are a new concept for Japan, yet that's precisely where the country is right now: prices are the main worry of 45% of the respondents in a poll released by public broadcaster NHK last week, followed by diplomacy and national security at 16%.

Making sure inflation rises even more, Takaichi's administration plans a new national security strategy this year after deciding to hasten a military build-up that will lift defence spending to 2% of GDP, a sharp break from decades in which Japan capped such outlays at around 1%. Translation: even more spending and even more debt monetization by the BOJ.

Takaichi has not set a new spending target beyond that level, but rising tension with China over Taiwan and disputed islands in the East China Sea, coupled with U.S. pressure for allies to spend more, are likely to push defence outlays higher. Last week, China banned exports of items destined for Japan's military that have civilian and military uses, including some critical minerals.

"China has conducted military exercises around Taiwan, and economic coercion is increasingly being used through control of key supply-chain materials," she said. "The international security environment is becoming more severe."

The LDP and Ishin go into the Feb 8 election, which coincides with a planned national election in Thailand, with a combined 233 seats. Takaichi said her target was for the coalition to retain its majority in the lower chamber.

Her main challenger will be the Centrist Reform Alliance, a new political party combining the largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, which ended its 26-year coalition with the LDP after Takaichi, a right-wing lawmaker, took over at the LDP. Together the parties hold 172 seats.

That new political group could propose to permanently abolish the 8% sales tax on food, a party official said earlier in the day. 

"Now may be the best chance she has at taking advantage of this extraordinary popularity," said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese studies at Kanda University of International Studies. But with opposition parties joining forces to oppose her, victory might not be straightforward, he added.

In any case, don't expect any major changes in Japan's political facade. Meanwhile the yen is trading near an all time low against the USD, and against that other export-focused currency, China's yuan...

... which in turn is keeping Japan's economy afloat, by pushing the price of its exports artificially lower. Still, at some point the BOJ will have to make a choice: contain inflation (and send the yen surging), or watch the world's second largest bond market (of which 60% of is held by the BOJ), disintegrate. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 12:35

Mr. Trump Goes To Davos...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Monsters Of The Deep

"Timing, not haste, drives what will happen next."

- Thomas Sowell

Minneapolis, the sucking chest wound on America’s body politic, gets a break this week from Gawda’mighty, who is turning the heat down to subzero so that ICE-Watch nose-rings can hole-up in their Soros-paid motels, play League of Legends with their DoorDashed Chick-fil-A nuggets, and rest up for the next inning of their motley revolution. ICE itself might even have to lay off its daily round-up of rapists, cut-throats, and child-molesters, to wait out the cold-snap.

Meanwhile, things elsewhere roughen up a little.

For instance: Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum (WEF) holds its annual jamboree of vampire squids. Klaus Schwab is out, by the way. He skulked off in a malodorous cloud of embezzlement and sexual irregularities, to be replaced by Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the hedge fund that owns everything in the USA and wants more.

Larry Fink is living proof of the banality of evil, an early pioneer of mortgage-backed securities, which nearly blew up the global banking system in 2008-09, after which he pioneered the wholesale purchasing of foreclosed houses by hedge funds. Neat trick. Cornered the market on all the inventory, so, now, nobody under age-fifty in America can afford to buy a house — but you can rent one from BlackRock!

Larry Fink of BlackRock and the World Economic Forum

Larry Fink landed as interim head of the WEF largely because BlackRock has been espousing Klaus Schwab’s ideas about “Stakeholder Capitalism,” which allows global corporations to pretend that they have beneficent “societal purpose” while they go about ass-raping the common folk of Western Civ. Climate change and green new deals top that agenda, along with diversity, equity, and inclusion and additional bullshit about “environment, social, and governance factors” (ESG) in its global strategies portfolio — meaning, mandates for exactly the kind of policies that are destroying Europe’s economies, de-industrialization foremost.

Among the invited speakers at Davos this year: one US President Donald Trump. He is going to kill them with kindness, a tongue-bath of Trumpian compliments — you are the greatest. . . beautiful leaders like the world has never seen before — while he artfully inserts a stiletto in the WEF’s liver. You might not even know that the org is a walking corpse until a few weeks after the Davos meeting shuts down. But Mr. Trump is going to terminate its influence and send a message that the era of globalist shenanigans is over.

The president can point to two demonstration projects.

First, the USA’s acquisition of Greenland one way or another, either ownership or some leasing agreement or revised treaty arrangement. You can be sure that the EU does not like that — big bully America picking on cuddly little Denmark, “the world’s happiest country.” But since they are happily oblivious to Greenland’s strategic importance (vis-a-vis China’s nefarious ambitions there) it is up to America to prepare the game-board. The art of the deal, of course, is making it fait accompli before the targeted property-owner has even entered the discussion. How that works will be a painful discovery for the walking dead Davosanistas.

The second demo will be how the recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro leads to revelations of the globalist conspiracy to interfere in elections here, there, and everywhere. Señor Maduro sold his Smartmatic system to all comers, and you can bet that the plea bargain talks are already underway in Brooklyn (if not already concluded). Yes, it is our old friend, the Kraken, which is a related species of giant squid to the vampire variety convened in Davos.

The Kraken breeches...

This election fraud business is really consequential. It redounds to the criminality of the Democratic Party that had the impudence to jam an enfeebled marionette, “Joe Biden,” into the Oval Office, allowing a treasonous cabal of nihilists to nearly wreck the country. The massive evidence of that crime was clumsily suppressed by the cabal and its allies in the news business.

But it is surfacing again, now with Señor Maduro’s imprimatur, and it will turn into a force five storm off the coast of Florida as grand juries in Fort Pierce and Fort Lauderdale were empaneled a week ago to consider the myriad lawless operations mounted against Mr. Trump since 2015, including election fraud. The lawless are going to be rounded up, from Raffensperger in Georgia, to Katie Hobbs in Arizona, to Jocelyn Benson in Michigan, to Jena Griswold in Colorado, to dozens of other officials who were in on the big vote switcheroo of Nov. 3, 2020.

And when the revelations finally come, it will be too much for the foot-dragging villains in the US Senate to continue resisting — they will have to pass the SAVE Act or some legislation like it that requires voter ID, one election day, and paper ballots counted by humans, not machines.

It remains to be seen whether the Democratic Party goes extinct because of its exposed, widespread criminality, or because it simply can’t win an election without massive ballot fraud.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 12:10

 

 

I really enjoyed sitting down with Paula Pant to discuss HNTI:

“Why do smart, well intentioned investors still make costly mistakes?

In this episode, I sit down with Barry Ritholtz to explore why investing success has less to do with intelligence and more to do with behavior. Barry explains how bad ideas, bad numbers, and bad habits quietly derail portfolios, even for people who know better.

We talk about how to think probabilistically instead of emotionally, why markets do not crash on a schedule, and what actually brings bull markets to an end. We also dig into the limits of forecasting, how to evaluate market commentary without getting swept up in hype, and where artificial intelligence truly fits into modern investing.

This conversation is not about predicting the next crash or chasing the next trend. It’s about building a decision-making process that works across uncertainty, volatility, and long time horizons.”

 

You can find the conversation on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

 

 

Source:
How NOT to Invest, with Barry Ritholtz
By Paula Pant
Afford Anything, January 16, 2026

 

 

 

The post Why Smart Investors Still Lose Money appeared first on The Big Picture.

Where The Department of Energy Is Investing

Submitted by Tight Spreads

The DOE has been flooding their sites with white-papers and latest Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap (FS&T Roadmap) are not just a scientific plan, but an industrial policy designed to transition fusion from the laboratory to the commercial market by the mid-2030s. The DOE has prioritized its actions to align with the aggressive “fast-track” development cycles of nuclear fission and fusion companies:

Near-Term (Next 2-3 Years): Digitalization & Infrastructure Prep

• AI-Fusion Convergence: Launch the AI-Fusion Digital Convergence Platform to use machine learning to speed up materials discovery and predict plasma behavior.

• Infrastructure Start: Build small-to-medium test facilities and complete the design for large-scale “First-of-a-Kind” (FOAK) facilities.

• Regulatory Frameworks: Finalize licensing and safety standards to give investors, consumers, and citizens alike certainty on how these plants will be regulated.

Mid-Term (3-5 Years): Prototype Integration

• Pilot Plant Construction: Support the private sector in constructing the first fusion pilot plants (FPPs).

• Fuel & Materials Testing: Delivery of integration platforms for testing tritium fuel cycles and materials under intense radiation.

• Supply Chain Seeding: Support domestic manufacturing for high-heat components and superconducting magnets.

Long-Term (5-10 Years): Grid Delivery & Scale-Up

• Commercial Operation: The first fleet of pilot plants begins delivering power to the grid.

• Commercial Maturity: Expand public infrastructure to support a global market, focusing on lowering the levelized cost of energy to make fusion competitive with other generation technologies today.

The Six Core Technical Challenge Areas

These are the gaps the DOE is prioritizing through its public research budget to ensure relevant companies succeed.

1. Structural Materials: Developing metals that won’t become brittle or weak after years of intense neutron bombardment. Metals such as Reduced Activation Ferritic Martensitic (RAFM) steels can withstand intense neutron damage without swelling or becoming brittle.

2. Plasma-Facing Components (PFCs): Creating “first walls” that can survive heat fluxes equivalent to the surface of the sun.

3. Confinement Systems: Optimizing magnets and lasers to hold the superheated fuel stable for long periods. Relevant companies: BRKR, COHR

4. Fuel Cycle & Tritium Processing: Establishing a closed loop fuel system to breed, recover, and recycle tritium fuel, as it is extremely scarce in nature. Relevant companies: OKLO, ASPI, BWXT

5. Blankets: Engineering the wrapper around the reactor that captures heat for electricity and breeds the fuel.

6. Plant Engineering & Integration: Linking a fusion reactor to standard turbines and maintenance via robotics. Relevant companies: NVDA, IBM

The Future of Energy: Understanding the Mechanics of Fusion

To grasp the next frontier of the energy transition, we need to distinguish between the nuclear power we use today and the “holy grail” of energy: Nuclear Fusion. Nuclear fusion is the process of combining two light atomic nuclei to form a single, heavier nucleus. This process releases a massive amount of energy as it typically uses two hydrogen isotopes for fuel: Deuterium and Tritium (D-T fuel). Nuclear Fission is the splitting of heavy atoms, such as the current method of commercial nuclear power plants with Uranium.

What is Plasma?

We are typically taught that there are three states of matter: solid, liquid, and gas. Plasma is the fourth state, and it is the most common form of matter in the visible universe. Plasma is created when a gas is heated to such extreme temperatures that the electrons are stripped away from their parent atoms. This results in an “ionized” gas—a hot, soup-like mixture of free-moving positively charged nuclei (ions) and negatively charged electrons. It is highly conductive and can be manipulated and shaped by magnetic fields. This characteristic is the lynchpin of modern fusion reactor design.

Plasma in a fusion fusion reactor:

Plasma’s Significance in a Fusion Reactor

In a fusion reactor, plasma is not just a byproduct; it is the reaction medium itself. It plays three critical roles toward enabling fusion energy:

• The Coulomb Barrier: Atomic nuclei are positively charged and naturally repel one another. To overcome this “Coulomb Barrier,” the fuel is heated into a plasma state, providing the extreme kinetic energy necessary for the nuclei to collide and fuse.

• Magnetic Confinement: Because no physical material can withstand fusion temperatures (upwards of 150 million degrees Celsius), the plasma must be suspended in mid-air. Scientists use the plasma’s electromagnetic properties to hold it in place using powerful superconducting magnets.

• Self-Sufficiency: The ultimate goal is to achieve a burning plasma. This is a self-sufficient state where the heat generated by the fusion reactions themselves maintains the required temperature, eliminating the need for external heating.

Plasma as a medium in a Tokamak Fusion Reactor:

The Role of Materials in Fusion Architectures

Structural materials form the physical vessel and internal supports of a fusion plant. Materials must withstand unprecedented neutron flux, high thermal loads, and corrosive environments while maintaining the precise vacuum required for plasma stability.

Materials that are prioritized include Reduced Activation Ferritic Martensitic (RAFM) steels and vanadium alloys. These are engineered to minimize long-lived radioactive waste, ensuring that the structural “backbone” of either machine doesn’t remain hazardous for centuries after the plant is decommissioned. Easily produced RAFM steels and vanadium alloys strategically provide supply chain independence, dual-use applications in defense and aerospace, and enable closed fuel cycles to enhance commercial viability.

Plasma-Facing Components (PFCs) & Interactions

PFCs are the “first wall” materials that directly interact with the 100-million-degree plasma. They must exhaust extreme heat without contaminating the reaction. Tungsten, a critical material for PFCs, is a key focus of domestic mineral security.

Layers of a fusion reactor:

Magnetic and Inertial Confinement Fusion

The DOE’s FS&T Roadmap follows a dual-track approach pursuing two distinct methods to contain fusion: Magnetic Confinement Fusion & Inertial Confinement Fusion.

Magnetic Confinement Fusion: This method utilizes High-Temperature Superconducting (HTS) magnets to create powerful magnetic “bottles.” These magnets suspend and stabilize the superheated plasma, preventing it from touching the reactor walls. There are two primary magnetic confinement architectures: Tokamaks and Stellarators:

• Tokamaks: These are doughnut-shaped devices that use a combination of external magnets and an internal electrical current flowing through the plasma to maintain stability.

• Stellarators: These use a complex, twisted ring of external coils to confine the plasma without needing an internal current. While more stable than Tokamaks, the geometry of a Stellarator is very intricate.

Companies that produce HTS magnets that make compact fusion possible:

• Bruker Corporation (NASDAQ: BRKR): Known for scientific instruments, BRKR additionally serves as a critical industrial partner to the DOE through its subsidiary Bruker Energy & Supercon Technologies (BEST). BEST is known for its the stewardship of HTS magnet technology engineering. In the pursuit of next-generation energy solutions, BRKR has been a critical supplier of advanced Niobium-Tin and High-Temperature Superconductor (HTS) conductors for several high-stakes DOE initiatives: fusion energy, accelerator upgrades, and NMR proving grounds (relevant for testing the accuracy of isotope purities).

Inertial Confinement Fusion: This approach takes a “pulsed” path, using high-energy lasers to rapidly compress tiny fuel pellets. This intense compression triggers a series of micro-explosions that ignite the plasma, creating a steady stream of energy production similar to the internal combustion of an engine.

Inertial fusion requires pulsed lasers of incredible power and precision. The companies that build the optical components and high-power diodes are the primary enablers:

• Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR): A critical business in this sector. Their LEAP excimer laser platform is actually used by REBCO manufacturers to deposit the superconducting layers onto the tape. Furthermore, they provide high-power diode lasers essential for pumping the large-scale lasers used in fusion experiments.
• Syntec Optics (NASDAQ: OPTX): A U.S.-based manufacturer of precision optics. They provide the specialized lenses and mirrors required for high-energy laser systems.

Inertial Confinement Fusion:

The race for fusion is one of the key drivers for the U.S. massive push to securitize a domestic rare earth and advanced materials supply chain. A primary driver is the production of HTS magnets, which rely on Rare-Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO). These specialized materials allow for more compact and efficient fusion reactors, but their utility extends far beyond energy; REBCO technology is also essential for next-generation MRI machines and high-speed maglev rail systems.

The Fuel Cycle & Tritium Breeding

The DOE is pursuing a “closed-loop” fuel cycle where fusion and fast reactors breed their own tritium fuel using lithium-containing blankets. Because tritium is rare and radioactive, the FS&T Roadmap emphasizes advanced accountancy and Direct Internal Recycling to minimize inventory. The DOE is prioritizing Tritium as a vital material for the U.S. nuclear stockpile, critical for national defense and nonproliferation. Establishing a domestic supply of light isotopes—specifically Lithium-6, Tritium, and Deuterium for fusion breeding and fuel—ensures that the U.S. does not depend on international sources for its most critical nuclear assets.

Companies that are produce light isotopes and/or have breeder reactor capabilities include:

ASP Isotopes (ASPI): ASPI hopes to contribute to Li-6 supply in 2026/2027, as mentioned in their shareholder letter from September of 2025:

“There is a considerable amount of customer demand for HALEU, as well as Lithium-6 and Lithium-7. We expect to have the first Lithium-6 plant operational during 2026, subject to the timely receipt of all required permits and licenses.”

BWXT & The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA): As of late 2025, TVA has emerged as the primary “Tritium Hub.” Leveraging their experience producing Tritium for the nuclear stockpile at Watts Bar, TVA is exploring the use of the BWRX-300 SMR to host Tritium-Producing Burnable Absorber Rods. By replacing standard neutron absorbers with lithium-based rods, these SMRs can “harvest” Tritium as a byproduct of normal electricity generation.

Oklo (Aurora Powerhouse and Atomic Alchemy): While Oklo’s primary Aurora powerhouse is a fast fission reactor capable of breeding tritium, its radioisotope pilot facility and VIPR technology have capabilities inclusive of producing specialized the “light isotopes” used in the breeder blanket and fuel. As of early 2026, Oklo’s subsidiary, Atomic Alchemy, has transitioned into active execution under a DOE Other Transaction Agreement (OTA) to fast track their radioisotope business and production.

TerraPower (Natrium): As a similar reactor design to the Aurora Powerhouse, the Natrium reactor is an ideal candidate for isotope production. Fast reactors can irradiate lithium targets, potentially producing Tritium at a much higher rate than traditional light-water reactors.

Holtec (SMR-300): Holtec has positioned its SMR as a multipurpose tool. Their recent filings suggest that their reactors at the Palisades site could be configured with specialized “target” assemblies to produce various isotopes, including Tritium, for both commercial fusion and medical use.

Blanket Science and Technology

The blanket of a reactor in the latest FS&T Roadmap has been reimagined as the “Energy Engine” of the fusion power plant. While the plasma provides the environment for the reaction, the blanket is the critical interface where that reaction is converted into tangible products: usable heat for the electrical grid and essential fuel for the reactor’s continued operation. This massive component surrounds the fusion core and serves three non-negotiable functions:

1. It facilitates energy conversion by capturing high-energy neutrons—which carry approximately 80% of the fusion energy—and converting their kinetic energy into thermal heat.

2. It enables tritium breeding by using those same neutrons to strike lithium-6 atoms, transmuting them into Tritium.

3. It acts as a radiation shield, protecting delicate superconducting magnets and exterior plant components from intense neutron flux to ensure structural longevity.

One of the most significant strategic shifts in the 2025 Roadmap is the explicit move to leverage advanced fission R&D to accelerate these fusion milestones. The molten salts used in fusion blankets are nearly identical to the coolants required for Generation-IV Fission Molten Salt Reactors. By aligning these technologies, the DOE is creating a unified domestic supply chain where purification systems, high-temperature pumps, and specialized alloys developed for advanced fission can be utilized directly in the fusion sector.

Plant Engineering & Systems Integration

This challenge focuses on the Balance of Plant (BOP)—the turbines, heat exchangers, and robotic maintenance systems that turn a “fusion engine” into a grid-ready power plant. The priority is reliability, availability, maintainability, and inspectability. Here, the AI-fusion digital convergence becomes the primary tool. AI-enabled “Digital Twins” will manage the plant’s complex systems in real-time, just as they optimize hyperscale data centers today. This creates a massive opportunity for the AI ecosystem; companies like NVIDIA and IBM are already leading efforts (such as Stellar-AI) to provide the supercomputing clusters needed for these simulations.

Many often focus on the “Fusion Core,” but the Balance of Plant is where 50% of the capital cost lives. This is the traditional engineering—turbines, heat exchangers, and cooling systems—that turns heat into electricity. Standard steam turbines may not be efficient enough. This requires innovations such as Supercritical CO2 turbines which are developed by only a handful of agencies and almost exclusively by Oklo commercially. These turbines are smaller and more efficient than steam, and are being prioritized to keep the plant footprint small.

* * *

Read more at the TightSpreads substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 11:20

NatGas Futs Erupt As Arctic Air Invasion Penetrates Deep Into US South

US natural gas futures erupted Monday morning as some of the coldest Arctic air of the Northern Hemisphere winter season poured into the eastern half of the Lower 48. Snow threats across the region are increasing through the end of the month.

Average temperatures across Washington, DC, are plunging and could average around 10°F by the weekend. This cold blast is far more extreme than the one in the first half of December. Notably, this period typically coincides with the most intense part of winter.

"DANGEROUS COLD is likely on Saturday across much of the United States, with wind chills forecasted to fall below zero for over 100 million people," weather observer Max Velocity wrote on X. "Additionally, wind chills could be as low as 60 DEGREES below zero in the far Northern Plains at this same time. This dangerous cold will likely set up a rare Southern USA Winter Storm on Friday and Saturday."

DANGEROUS COLD is likely on Saturday across much of the United States, with wind chills forecasted to fall below zero for over 100 million people.

Additionally, wind chills could be as low as 60 DEGREES below zero in the far Northern Plains at this same time. This dangerous cold… pic.twitter.com/xbtm2nsQdv

— Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) January 19, 2026

 

Private weather forecaster BAM Weather warns of increasing risks of winter activity across the eastern half of the US this week:

A storm will develep Friday night into Saturday across the deep south and track northeast with a tap to the Gulf of America allowing plentiful moisture to produce a large area of a high impact winter storm. Strong high pressure will come south from Canada and bring Arctic air with it allowing there to be plenty of cold air available to produce snow and ice across several thousands of miles in the central and eastern US.

Winter Storm Scenario #1 

Winter Storm Scenario #2

The cold blast has sent heating demand through the roof.

NatGas futures in the US are up 18% as of early Monday, the largest intra-day jump since October 2024.

NatGas prices surging again.

Cold air is in place. The weather pattern is set.

Map showing the chances for at least three inches of snow through Monday.

That's a lot of real estate ❄️

High chances for accumulating snow in the Southern Plains, Mid-South, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Lots of ice possible in the South. pic.twitter.com/yrtTYn4h8F

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) January 19, 2026

All eyes are on the next possible major snowstorm targeting the Southern Plains, Mid-South, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic by next week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 10:55

Greenland Is Very Nice...

By Benjamin Picton, senior markets strategist at Rabobank

If Mighty Ducks 2 taught me anything it’s that “Greenland is covered with ice, and Iceland is very nice.” While that might be a handy geographic mnemonic, for the purposes of US national security policy it is, in fact, Greenland that is very nice..

Over the weekend President Trump announced additional tariffs of 10% from February 1st – rising to 25% from the 1st of June – for eight European countries resisting US efforts to acquire Greenland. The affected countries are Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Finland. Trump said via Truth social that the tariffs would remain in place until a deal for the sale of Greenland to the United States is concluded. Consequently, gold is hitting fresh record highs, long yields are rising, equity futures point negative and both Cable and EURUSD have opened the Asian session well bid. Japanese long yields are surging for idiosyncratic reasons, but should be getting high enough to worry even the most sedate money managers.

One can probably imagine the reaction in European capitals. The Financial Times is reporting that the EU is preparing €93bn in retaliatory tariffs to give European leaders “leverage” in negotiations with Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. Emmanuel Macron was quick out of the gates with a representative of his office saying that the French President will be arguing for the EU to deploy its much-vaunted ‘trade bazooka’ (known less sensationally as the anti-coercion instrument) while Politico quotes former French diplomat Jeremie Gallon as saying “I am convinced that we must not give in... Resisting a new attempt at humiliation and vassalization is the only way Europe can finally assert itself as a geopolitical actor.”

Resistance is all well and good, but effective resistance requires the means to resist – and Europe does not have it. An ECB report released in February of last year noted that 61% of all card payments in Europe are processed by international (read: US) card schemes while thirteen EU countries are solely reliant on international schemes like Visa, Mastercard and ApplePay for electronic payment processing.

Likewise, since the start of the war in Ukraine Europe has become dependent on American energy as it attempts wean itself off Russian supplies. Before the war it was already dependent on the Eurodollar market for capital and on the American consumer for export earnings as deflation and state mercantilism in China diminished that alternative.

Over the weekend German Chancellor Merz conceded that Germany’s shutdown of its nuclear energy industry was a “serious strategic mistake” that has left the country with insufficient energy generation capacity. As a consequence of cumulative strategic mistakes, European industry is now being squeezed between the pincers of loss of input sovereignty and loss export markets. Loss of domestic industry is another way of saying loss of industrial sovereignty (for more on that, see Sky News’s excellent exposé on the parlous state of UK industry) – and industrial sovereignty is requisite for dreams of strategic autonomy.

Furthermore – and though it hardly bears saying – the EU under NATO remains a US garrison state with major US bases in the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Portugal, Greece and Norway. Without the US security umbrella, the EU nuclear deterrent collapses into internecine politicking over France’s willingness to play guarantor for other member states who – once upon a time – France was sceptical about admitting to the EU in the first place. This is important in a context where – as ECB’s Kazaks pointed out overnight – Europe is already at war with Russia.

Herein lies the Achilles Heel for Europe in seeking genuine strategic autonomy: the lack of political union makes it all too easy for great powers like the United States or China play member states off against each other to get what they want. Already we can see Italy’s Georgia Meloni taking the opposite approach to Macron by striking a much more conciliatory tone towards the Americans, framing recent deployments of European troops to the territory as a ‘misunderstanding’ and seeking to de-escalate. In this respect, Europe is the new Balkans that risks becoming the plaything of empires.

Perhaps Canada offers an example of an alternative approach? Mark Carney just made the first visit to China by a Canadian Prime Minister in almost a decade. Canada’s name has been mud in Beijing for years after the former Trudeau government complied with a US warrant for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2019. Trudeau then placed substantial tariffs on imports of Chinese steel, aluminium and electric vehicles – where duties were set at 100% for the latter.

Carney has now signed a deal with China to lower EV tariffs to 6.1% up to an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles. In return China will drop tariffs on Canadian canola to 15%. Having previously described China as the greatest threat to Canada’s national security, Carney is now saying that the relations with the Middle Kingdom are more predictable than relations with the United States, and is making a show of cozying up to Beijing.

As one observer puts it on X, Carney’s pivot is a “vintage Gaullist move.” Carney is attempting to leverage Trump by signing deals with Beijing and even flirting with the idea of sending Canadian troops to Greenland. With Chinese influence having been ejected unceremoniously from Venezuela, and under pressure in the Panama Canal, the last thing the Trump administration would want is for Canada to offer China another geopolitical toehold in the Western hemisphere. Carney offering that toehold in the Arctic, directly adjacent to Greenland, must be particularly ‘de-Gaulling’ for Trump, who is so far calling the bluff by shrugging his shoulders.

However, this strategy is incredibly high risk. Not only does Carney’s backdown on Chinese EVs threaten Canada’s own auto industry (see criticism from Ontario Premier Doug Ford here), but there is always the chance that poking the (US) bear might actually elicit a response from the bear.

Canada sends ~75% of its goods exports to the United States while the United States is by far the largest supplier of armaments to Canada. Consequently, Carney will be hoping that Trump’s response is to offer him a better deal than Xi Jinping is willing to give. However, with the USMCA trade agreement up for renegotiation and the US back in a Great Power frame of mind, Carney runs the risk that Donald Trump might instead decide that Canada is also very nice...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 10:30

Putin Offered Seat On Trump's Gaza Peace Board, Kremlin Says

Russia has been invited to take part in the new US-backed 'Peace Board' put forward by President Donald Trump to oversee post-conflict governance and reconstruction in Gaza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has announced, in a somewhat surprising and hugely symbolic diplomatic move and overture.

Peskov told reporters Monday that President Vladimir Putin had received an invitation through diplomatic channels. "We are studying the details of the proposal. We hope to hold contacts with the US side to clarify all the nuances," he said, but did not disclose any additional details.

Source: Expresso

The Putin invitation has yet to be publicly acknowledged by Washington, and Western mainstream media is likely to go into a frenzy over it. Press reports have highlighted that Putin was invited to oversee 'peace' but is still active in directing the Ukraine invasion.

For example, The Guardian frames the peace board as but a Trump vanity project, writing "The invitation to Putin, which has yet to be confirmed by Washington, raises more questions about the intended agenda for the board. It was originally part of Trump’s ceasefire proposals for the Gaza war, and was supposed to oversee the transition to a lasting peace in the territory and supervise the work of a committee of Palestinian experts, also announced last week, who would take care of the day-to-day running of Gaza."

The report adds, "The vaguely described scheme was endorsed in a UN security council resolution in November" - and draws parallels to the desire to takeover Greenland, which is intent to "cement Trump’s place in the history books."

Invitations have been sent to a broad group of countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, including US allies and key regional players. Already, countries and leaders as different and geographically distant as Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Vietnamese Communist Party chief To Lam have accepted their invitations.

It is shaping up to be a 'mini UN' of sorts, as the peace board plan calls for an international council to manage reconstruction financing, security coordination, and political cooperation in Gaza - all while working in cooperation with a Palestinian technocratic administration.

Yet there are other peculiar aspects. For example Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the Trump administration is asking nations interested in holding a permanent seat on a proposed Gaza Strip "Board of Peace" to pledge at least $1 billion in funding. Otherwise they will just hold a three-year seat, according to some initial details.

❗️Trump invited Putin to join Gaza 'Peace Board' — Kremlin spokesman

'At the moment, we are studying all the details of this proposal. We hope for contact with the American side to clarify all the nuances' pic.twitter.com/ZghZSU8gU0

— RT (@RT_com) January 19, 2026

The intent of the funding threshold is reportedly to ensure that participating countries have substantial financial involvement in stabilizing the territory and supporting long-term redevelopment. It is unclear whether Russia will accept its invitation, or whether it is willing to pony up $1 billion.

Washington seems to be arguing that spreading the financial burden internationally is critical to preventing American taxpayers from shouldering most of the reconstruction costs. Sadly, this was of no concern when the same taxpayers were footing the bill for billions in weaponry and foreign aid for Israel over prior years - even as Palestinian neighborhoods got flattened by US bombs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 10:05