The post Obamacare Lowered Healthcare Cost Growth #34,706 appeared first on CEPR.



 

 

This week, live from the Phillips Collection in Washington D.C., I speak with Samantha McLemore, founder and CIO of Patient Capital Management. We discuss how value investing has changed, investing in crypto, and the AI revolution.

We also discussed long-term investing and the ways her firm is using AI.

A transcript of our conversation is available here Monday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Masters in Business: Samantha McLemore, Patient Capital appeared first on The Big Picture.

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. For example, we are still missing housing starts and new home sales for September, October and November.
The key economic report this week is Q3 GDP.

----- Monday, December 22nd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 75.9%.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.


----- Wednesday, December 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225,000 initial claims, up from 224,000 last week.

The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

----- Thursday, December 25th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Christmas Holiday.

----- Friday, December 26th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

Reversing Alzheimer's: The Forgotten Causes And Cures Big Pharma Buried

Authored by A Midwestern Doctor via The Forgotten Side of Medicine,

•Due to Alzheimer’s research focusing on a symptom of it (amyloid plaques), rather than its actual cause, Alzheimer’s has remained “incurable” for decades.

•Rather than being a single disease, Alzheimer’s has multiple different subtypes (e.g., those due to insulin resistance, nutritional deficiencies, inflammation, infections, or concussions), each of which requires a different treatments.

•Impaired blood circulation to the brain and lymphatic drainage from the brain are often the primary trigger which initiates the degenerative process seen in Alzheimer’s disease.

•Factors which impair this circulation (e.g., poor sleep) hence roughly double the risk of dementia, while treatments which improve this circulation frequently produce remarkable improvements for cognitive decline and dementia.

•DMSO, an effective treatment for brain injuries like strokes is well suited to address many of the root causes of dementia and reverse the degenerative state dying neurons get trapped in. Because of this, there are many reports of it reversing dementia and clinical trials in both humans and animals corroborating these improvements.

•This article will review the actual causes of dementias like Alzheimer’s and the forgotten therapies many have successful used to cure them.

Alzheimer’s dementia is one of the greatest medical challenged our country faces (e.g., places an incredible burden upon society (e.g., last year it was estimated to cost the United States 360 billion dollars). Yet, despite spending billions for research each year, cures remain elusive, something many believe results from the flawed belief eliminating the amyloid plaques associated with Alzheimer’s will fix it.

In turn, as I showed here:

• Decades of amyloid therapies have never produced a beneficial therapy.

• The newest “breakthrough” amyloid eliminating monoclonal antibodies, at best, slightly slow the progression of Alzheimer’s while simultaneously causing a host of side effective including brain bleeding and swelling in over a quarter of recipients.

• The entire amyloid industry rests upon a fraudulent study no one wanted to retract, likely due to how much was invested in the amyloid hypothesis.

In short, the money behind this juggernaut has caused research into the real causes of Alzheimer’s to be suppressed. For example, here I highlighted how coconut oil MCT’s (safely) do more than any of the costly amyloid drugs—yet virtually no one knows this.

Dale Bredesen’s Discovery

Many are also unaware a 2022 study that should have revolutionized the entire Alzheimer’s field:

That protocol was based on the insightful realizations that:

• Amyloid protein is a protective mechanism the brain uses to protect itself from stressors that endanger brain tissue—making attempt to treat Alzheimer’s by eliminating it doomed to fail.

• The brain is designed to be able to adapt to the needs of life, so it is always creating or pruning neural connections and brain cells. Alzheimer’s results from the loss of signals that sustain brain cells and the dismantling of neural connections outweighing the formation of new ones gradually compounding over the decades.

• Rather than there being one type of Alzheimer’s, there are actually multiple that each require different treatment approaches.

Note: beyond the 2022 trial which showed individually targeted therapies could shift the brain’s momentum from neurological degeneration to regrowth, a 2018 report of 100 patients from numerous providers also showed it treated Alzheimer’s, as did a 2024 case series of patients with remarkable results, and there are now neurologists around the country administering Bredesen’s protocol with success.

The Six Types of Alzheimer’s Disease

As this understanding of Alzheimer’s has produced real results, this suggests the causes of Alzheimer’s Bredesen identified indeed play a key role in the disease—particularly since many other datasets corroborate their contribution to Alzheimer’s. They are as follows:

Type 1 -- Inflammatory

This form is driven by excessive inflammation, often metabolic or infectious in nature. Chronic activation of the immune system—due to factors such as insulin resistance, a poor diet, a leaky gut, or latent infections—leads the brain to engage in protective downsizing by removing synapses and neurons that are less essential for immediate survival. It often presents with classic Alzheimer’s memory loss and typically develops in the sixties to seventies.

Type 1.5 -- Glycotoxic

This subtype arises from insulin resistance and chronically elevated blood sugar. It leads to both inflammatory and trophic deficiencies, and is driven by glycotoxicity and the accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs), which impair cellular function and synaptic integrity. It typically appears in the late fifties to sixties.

Note: chronically elevated insulin promotes amyloid formation as the enzyme the body uses to break down insulin is the same enzyme it uses to break down amyloid plaques.

Type 2 -- Atrophic

This type is caused by deficiencies in key nutrients, hormones, and other factors that provide trophic (supportive) signals to brain cells which then triggers a similar downsizing mechanism seen in Type 1. Type 2 tends to emerge about a decade later than Type 1.

Note: we find these nutritional deficiencies can result from poor circulation reducing existing nutrients reaching brain tissue, and hence often focus on improving circulation rather than extended supplementation.

Type 3 -- Toxic

This subtype results from exposure to toxic substances that directly damage neurons. Common culprits include biotoxins, chronic infections, heavy metals, and industrial or household chemicals. Causative infections (discussed further here) include Cytomegalovirus, Human Herpesvirus 1 or 6, Lyme disease, dental bacteria that can travel to the brain (e.g. P. gingivalis) and various fungal infections (as mold toxins are notorious for causing cognitive impairment at all ages).

Type 3 uniquely causes widespread and often unpredictable neuronal death, occurs earlier in life—often between the forties and sixties—and is less strongly associated with genetic risk factors. Cognitive decline in this type is frequently accompanied by psychiatric symptoms, sensory changes, or executive dysfunction (e.g., difficulty with math, organization, executive tasks), rather than the more classic early Alzheimer’s memory loss.

Note: some of the most important neurotoxins to avoid are pharmaceuticals, and when I meet elderly individuals who have preserved their mental clarity, many report having largely avoided pharmaceuticals throughout their lives. Some of the most common problematic medications for brain health include certain high blood pressure medications (because they lower cerebral perfusion), statins (as they inhibit the production of compounds essential for brain function), acid reflux medications (which interfere with the absorption of vital brain nutrients—making it critical for everyone to have adequate stomach acid), antidepressants, antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, antihistamines (since, like many sleeping pills, they block restorative sleep), and anticholinergics (such as those prescribed for incontinence).

Type 4 -- Vascular

In this form, chronic restriction of cerebral blood flow from existing vascular diseases leads to gradual neuronal injury and cognitive decline. Type 4 often appears in the seventies or beyond) and may overlap with other subtypes. It tends to affect processing speed, attention, and executive function rather than memory alone.

Note: rapid cognitive decline frequently followed COVID vaccination, and significantly overlapped with this type.

Type 5 -- Traumatic

Severe head traumas or repeated concussions (e.g., in professional football players) sets off a cascade of chronic degenerative process which cause cognitive and emotional dysfunctional to appear years or decades after the injuries—making it critical to prevent these injuries and seek appropriate treatment when they happen.

Note: there are a variety of causes of dementia, many of which are frequently (roughly half the time1,2) misdiagnosed as Alzheimer’s. In many cases, these respond to the same treatments which reverse Alzhemer’s, but in other cases, require different treatments.

Healthy Fluid Circulation

Many practitioners I know who’ve successfully treating dementia with a variety of methods (listed here) all concluded it resulted from impairments of blood flow to the brain and lymphatic or venous drainage from it. For example:

•Zeta potential provides the disperse force which keeps constituents within fluids from agglomerating and clogging the circulatory vessels (e.g., vaccine frequently trigger detectable microstrokes by causing blood cells to clump together). In a myriad of illnesses, we find restoring the physiologic zeta potential (discussed here) is pivotal for restoring health—particularly those associated with aging, as zeta potential worsens with age (due to declining kidney function). In turn, one of the physicians who inspired my medical path did so because his practice revolved around treating zeta potential and he repeatedly achieved significant cognitive improvements for his aging patients.
Note: impaired zeta potential will also cause proteins (e.g., amyloids) to misfold and clump together.

•China recently developed a surgery (detailed here) to increase the lymphatic drainage from the brain. Due to its efficacy and low cost, it is being rapidly adopted around the country. In parallel, an American procedure was developed to increase venous drainage from the head and reported to greatly improve multiple sclerosis along with other chronic neuroimmune disorders (which distant colleagues witnessed).

Note: I have seen many other circulatory enhancing therapies (listed here) also improve cognitive decline and dementia.

Furthermore, beyond blood being vital for neuronal survival, the proper clearance of waste products from the brain is as well. Unfortunately, due to how limited space is for the brain within the skull, robust lymphatic vessels do not exist, and instead, lymphatic drainage is created by astrocytes creating temporary lymphatic vessels around blood vessels during deep sleep.

This system, in turn, is highly vulnerable to disruption and numerous studies have now linked impaired glymphatic drainage to dementia (e.g., TBIs impair glymphatic drainage and adequate glymphatic drainage is required to eliminate amyloid from the brain)—which likely inspired the Chinese surgical procedure for dementia.

Due to the fragility of this system, things which disrupt it are quite consequential (e.g., poor zeta potential thickens and slows the drainage of glymphatic fluids). For example, as glymphatic drainage only occurs during deep sleep, poor sleep has been extensively linked to dementia (e.g., one study found sleep disruption increased dementia by 104%, another by 22-50%, and a third found a 139% increase—along with another finding sleep disruption caused a 71% increase in mild cognitive impairment).

Likewise, disrupted sleep was recently shown to accelerate the accumulation of amyloid plaques, and, in another study, to mitigate the cognitive impairment created by Alzheimer’s plaques. Unfortunately, the pathologic proteins in Alzheimer’s have been shown to directly disrupt restorative sleep and to take away the ability to recognize one is suffering from impaired sleep—demonstrating why it is so important to restore your healthy sleep before the momentum of dementia has entrenched itself.

Note: sleeping pills block restorative sleep, and have a variety of issues (e.g., they make users 2-5 times as likely to die1,2). Regarding dementia, multiple studies have found that sleeping pills increase the risk of it by 17-84%.1,2,3,4

The Life of Cells and Neuroplasticity

One of the things I continually marvel at about nature is not only the ability of a species to genetically adapt to its environment, but the inherent adaptability each organism has within its own lifespan to adapt to its environment. Within the human body, there are many systems that are designed to change based on the needs of one’s environment (e.g. this is why weight training creates larger muscles), and among the most adaptable is the nervous system.

So, at any given moment, neural circuits that support certain activities are reinforced, while other circuits are pruned and eventually disabled, a process that allows the nervous system to adapt to the complex needs of its environment. At the same time, many complex neurological and psychiatric disorders arise from a momentum being established where dysfunctional neurological circuits perpetually reinforce themselves.

For these disorders to be treated, a momentum must instead be established behind a healthy circuit (for those interested, this is the best book I have seen on that subject). This momentum is a key reason why it is so important to have healthy thought patterns and regularly actively exercise your brain (another core component of programs for preventing Alzheimer’s). If you do the opposite (e.g., watch TV all day or passively consume online content), dysfunctional patterns can become established habits, while neurological damage occurs as parts of the brain you need but under utilize are pruned away.

A key way the brain accomplishes this adaptability is by eliminating neurons that are no longer deemed essential. Bredesen’s theory of Alzheimer’s is that it results from the balance between preserving and eliminating neurons being shifted towards eliminating them, which inevitably will result in cognitive decline (hence making it critical to protect your brain early in the process of cognitive decline so it does not progress to dementia).

Within Bredesen’s model, the amyloid protein plays a key role in this process, as when it is initially formed as amyloid precursor protein (APP), it has the choice to be then split into two or four parts. If it is divided into two parts, those parts protect the neurological function in the brain. In comparison, if it is divided into four parts, the neurological function of the brain is damaged, and brain cells are eliminated. Interestingly, its splitting into four parts causes future APPs also to be split into four parts (which creates a downhill spiral). As a result, Brenden’s approach focuses on regaining a healthy momentum towards the two-part splitting while also providing the signals cells within the body require to survive.

The Cell Danger Response

When cells are exposed to external stressors, they often enter a primitive defensive metabolic cycle where they partially or fully “turn off” (e.g. mitochondrial respiration and protein synthesis within the cell decline) to protect themselves. Many chronic diseases, in turn, result from cells being trapped in this degenerative cycle (which often leads to cell death) rather than exiting it and resuming their normal function. Likewise, many therapies in regenerative medicine function by taking cells out of this frozen metabolic state.

Because of this, many complex illnesses (e.g., COVID vaccine injuries, fibromyalgia or autism) can only be treated if the underlying trigger for the cell danger response is removed, and then a regenerative therapy is provided which signals cells to exit the Cell Danger Response (CDR).

Similarly:

The principle that blocking protein synthesis prevents long-term memory storage was discovered many years ago. With age there is a marked decline of protein synthesis in the brain that correlates with defects in proper protein folding. Accumulation of misfolded proteins can activate the integrated stress response (ISR), an evolutionary conserved pathway that decreases protein synthesis. In this way, the ISR may have a causative role in age-related cognitive decline.

In turn, much in the same way treatments for the CDR often facilitate treating dementia, therapies which inhibit the ISR have been found to restore the structure and function of cells within the brain and improve a variety of age-related memory deficits.1,2

DMSO

Dimethyl sulfoxide has a variety of unique therapeutic properties which allow it to treat a variety of diseases (e.g., it is miraculous for strokes and brain injuries), and in the year since I began publicizing this forgotten therapy, I have received thousands of remarkable reports of it treating numerous “incurable illnesses.”

Much of this results from DMSO’s ability to restore normal circulation, protect cells from lethal stressors, and revive shocked cells trapped in the CDR. As such, since start the series, in addition to receiving many reports from readers who saved themselves or a loved one from a disabling stroke with DMSO, many have also shared stories like this:

My uncle’s wife has dementia and has been unable to speak for over a year. My mom recently visited them and told them about DMSO. He began to give his wife DMSO orally. After two week she began to talk again.

Numerous studies (detailed here), have corroborated DMSO’s ability to treat dementia. These include:

•When cerebral blood flow was permanently reduced in rats, one study found DMSO prevented the neuronal and memory loss that otherwise resulted while another found DMSO given afterwards treated it.1,2 Similar benefits have also been seen after Alzheimer’s was induced by injecting toxins into the brain,1,2. Likewise, in mice (or nematodes) engineered to develop Alzheimer’s, DMSO has been repeatedly shown to prevent the expected neurological damage.1,2,3

•DMSO has also been shown to prevent the neuronal damage from experimentally induced Parkinson’s and preserve the cognitive function of mice bred to rapidly develop severe degeneration of the cerebellum and brainstem.1,2
Note: IV DMSO is one of the few therapies I have come across which can halt Parkinson’s. To some extent oral DMSO helps as well (e.g., see this reader’s comment).

•DMSO has also been shown to treat scrapie (a neurodegenerative prion disease from abnormal protein aggregates) in hamsters, to increase the activity of ALP, the intercellular enzyme which eliminates cellular waste (including misfolded proteins) and, in a large number of studies, to treat amyloidosis (pathologic accumulations of pathologic proteins.
Note: we are currently corresponding with a reader who saw a remarkable response to DMSO for CJD (an incurable neurodegenerative prion disease).

In humans:

•18 patients with probable Alzheimer’s after three months, DMSO caused a significant improvement in memory, concentration, communication and orientation to time and space.

•In 104 elderly adults with organic brain disease from the common causes (e.g., strokes, atherosclerosis, Parkinson’s or head injuries), DMSO greatly improved their psychic and somatic function.1,2.

•In 100 patients with cerebrovascular diseases CVD, many of whom were senile, over 50 days, DMSO caused almost all to have a significant in their CVD, along with significant improvements in mood, mobility, and speech.

Conclusion

Medicine revolves around finding unique molecular targets for which disease specific treatments can be patented. Unfortunately, this model frequently fails in chronic illnesses, frequently leading to grotesque situations like the one described here, where natural therapies which can address the actual causes of devastating illnesses are sidelined to protect each disease’s lucrative “treatment” market.

This needs to change, and for the first time in my lifetime, thanks to MAHA, the political will at last exits to begin addressing the real reasons why there continues to be such much chronic illness in our society. The opportunity to make cognitive decline no longer be an inevitable aspect of aging is finally here—provided we seize it!

Author’s note: This is an abridged version of a longer article which discusses the actual causes and treatments for Alzheimer’s disease and the cognitive decline which precedes it. That article, along with additional links and references, can be read here. Additionally, a (recently updated) companion article on how DMSO treats neurological injuries (e.g., strokes, brain hemorrhages, traumatic brain injuries, spinal paralysis and developmental delay) can be read here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 19:15

Why Netflix Buying Warner Bros. Discovery Is A Bad Bet For Investors

Authored by Mark Anthony of Forrester Research,

Eaerlier this week, Netflix responded to the vast industry concerns about its deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery from the likes of the Writers Guild of America and a who’s-who list of elected officials, including liberal ones like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, by stating that “the “deal is about growth” and that the company is “strengthening one of Hollywood’s most iconic studios, supporting jobs, and ensuring a healthy future for film and TV production.”

Netflix continues to tout how it is a perfect strategic fit for WBD, but the only strategy that matters to investors is the one that provides the most deal certainty, speed to close, and risk-adjusted return. By those measures, a Netflix acquisition of WBD is a fundamentally unattractive trade.

It is only a matter of time before this deal to combine the two companies will face antitrust scrutiny — scrutiny which can significantly delay a closing or prevent one from ever occurring at all. 

President Donald Trump has already said that this Netflix acquisition could be a problem and that his administration will be playing an active role in this case.

Netflix knows it. It has already hired Steve Sunshine of Skadden, a very expensive antitrust lawyer. Companies do not bring in heavyweight antitrust counsel like this unless they expect scrutiny that could seriously delay or derail a transaction. From an investor’s standpoint, that alone should trigger caution.

Every extra month under review compresses annualized returns, increases financing uncertainty, and introduces tail risk that arbitrage desks are forced to price in, often violently.

The industry is also skeptical of this deal, and that matters to investors because it will feed the regulatory resistance that can delay the closing. Former WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar didn’t mince words when he said, “If I was tasked with doing so, I could not think of a more effective way to reduce competition in Hollywood than selling WBD to Netflix.” Statements like that don’t stay in trade publications. They end up cited in regulatory memos and congressional letters.

The same is true of James Cameron’s warning that a Netflix acquisition would be “a disaster,” pointing directly to Netflix leadership’s public dismissal of theatrical film distribution. Whether one agrees is irrelevant. What matters is that such statements reinforce the DOJ and FTC’s long-standing concern about platform dominance and vertical foreclosure.

President Trump has stated that he wants Warner Bros. Discovery sold to a buyer willing to acquire the entire company, including CNN. Netflix has expressed no interest in CNN; only Paramount Skydance (run by President Trump’s buddy Larry Ellison) has.

Now that Paramount has provided a $30-per-share all-cash offer, which is higher than Netflix’s bid, Netflix should especially beware because it provides two things’ arbitrageurs prize above all else: certainty and speed. All-cash deals reduce financing risk, minimize market exposure, and historically clear regulatory review more quickly when competitive overlaps are cleaner.

Netflix offers the opposite profile. A stock-heavy transaction facing extended DOJ review, potential divestiture demands, and political scrutiny introduces timeline risk that can easily stretch into years.

Markets tend to punish uncertainty. The smart money understands that when government signaling, industry opposition, and legal posture all point in the same direction, the highest-return move is often the simplest one: back the deal most likely to close.

In that calculus, a Netflix acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery doesn’t look like a bold bet. It looks like a slow bleed.

Mark Anthony is a former Silicon Valley Executive with Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR). He is now the host of the nationally syndicated radio show called The Patriot and The Preacher Show. Find out more at patriotandpreachershow.com. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 18:50

Venezuela Vows To Defend 'Homeland At Any Cost' - Orders Naval Escorts Of Tankers

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez has said Venezuela would defend the "homeland at any cost" in response to President Trump’s declaration that he’s imposing a blockade on all "sanctioned" tankers entering and leaving Venezuelan ports.

"We say to the US government and its president that we are not intimidated by their crude and arrogant threats," Padrino Lopez said on Wednesday. "The dignity of this homeland is neither negotiable nor cowed by absolutely anyone."

Handout via Reuters

Padrino Lopen also told state TV that the blockade violates the UN Charter. "For this reason, these actions amount to an open act of aggression, and we are declaring this to the entire world," he said.

The New York Times reported that, in the wake of Trump’s threat, which he issued on Tuesday night, the Venezuelan Navy began escorting tankers leaving Venezuelan ports, meaning that if the US attempts to seize another tanker that has a naval escort, it could lead to a direct clash between the US and Venezuelan militaries.

According to a report from The Associated Press, about 30 tankers under US sanctions were navigating near Venezuela as of Wednesday, and sanctioned vessels carried about 18% of Venezuela’s international shipments this year.

Also on Wednesday, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez issued a statement rejecting President Trump’s claims to Venezuela’s oil and land.

"Venezuela, in the full exercise of the International Law that protects us, our Constitution, and the laws of the Republic, reaffirms its sovereignty over all its natural resources, as well as the right to free navigation and free trade in the Caribbean Sea and the oceans of the world," she said.

Venezuela has ordered its navy to escort oil tankers leaving port & has lately aired footage of its military 'readiness' along the coast...

BREAKING; VENEZUELA has ordered its navy to escort oil tankers leaving port

Bolivarian Navy of Venezuela has begun escorting ships carrying petroleum products leaving the country, following the recent seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker in the Southern Caribbean by the United… pic.twitter.com/9NfGPJjyNp

— Global Surveillance (@Globalsurv) December 18, 2025

"His true intention, which has been denounced by Venezuela and the people of the United States in massive demonstrations, has always been to seize the country’s oil, land, and minerals through gigantic campaigns of lies and manipulation," Rodriguez added.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 18:25

Biden White House Coordinated Mar-A-Lago Raid Before Taking Conversations 'Offline'

Chad Mizelle, former chief of staff to Attorney General Pam Bondi, revealed that the Biden White House was actively “coordinating” with the Department of Justice regarding an FBI search for classified documents at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence - before the discussion later moved “offline.”

In an interview with the New York Post, Mizelle said he had reviewed “smoking-gun emails” exchanged in the months leading up to the controversial raid. The messages involved officials from President Joe Biden’s White House Counsel’s Office, Merrick Garland’s DOJ, and the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), indicating significant coordination among the agencies.

Mizelle said he personally reviewed email exchanges between officials at Biden’s White House Counsel’s Office, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department, and the National Archives and Records Administration in the months before the raid on President Donald Trump’s Florida residence. The emails showed detailed discussions about the Trump records, with the National Archives serving as custodian of the documents. 

At one point, a Biden White House official proposed taking the conversation “offline,” likely to prevent it from being preserved under federal disclosure laws. After that suggestion, the email trail abruptly ended.

"We have concrete evidence that Biden's White House was very much involved in the most unprecedented, unjust and improper law enforcement act, really in the history of our country, which is to use the FBI to raid the home of a political rival and former president of the United States," Mizelle said. He explained that the abrupt end of email communications made clear that the White House was coordinating the effort and deliberately putting Justice Department officials in contact with the National Archives about the documents stored at Mar-a-Lago.

The revelation follows the release of internal FBI and Justice Department memos showing that the bureau's Washington field office believed agents lacked probable cause to execute the Mar-a-Lago search warrant before the raid. 

A source familiar with the emails confirmed to reporters that the conversations Mizelle described do exist.

The emails as described by Mizelle also clash with DOJ’s purported independence from the commander-in-chief as well as a memo put out by then-Attorney General Merrick Garland, limiting officials’ interactions with the White House.

“[T]he Justice Department will not advise the White House concerning pending or contemplated criminal or civil law enforcement investigations or cases unless doing so is important for the performance of the President’s duties and appropriate from a law enforcement perspective,” the July 21, 2021, memo stated.

Biden White House aides insisted that the president was not aware of the FBI’s planned search beforehand — with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declining to comment 18 times on the unprecedented action the day after the raid.

“If they have a memo that they’re violating, that’s a problem,” Mizelle, who left the DOJ in September, said when asked about the memo. “If they tell the American people they’re not involved and they were in fact involved, that’s a problem.”

Trump’s legal team alleged that the National Archives, the White House Counsel’s Office, and senior Justice Department and FBI officials closely coordinated the Mar-a-Lago investigation. Attorneys Todd Blanche and Christopher Kise described the evidence as “disturbing but not surprising,” pointing to a May 2022 letter from acting Archivist Debra Steidel Wall, which referenced communications with the White House Counsel. Trump’s lawyers argued this suggested the Archives were acting as an arm of the prosecution.

After Wall’s letter, a federal grand jury subpoenaed the documents, and Trump’s team turned over an initial batch on June 3, 2022. Trump’s team sought all communications about the raid, but prosecutors claimed privilege over certain internal DOJ emails. The Biden administration long claimed there was limited involvement in the missing records case, but the evidence proves otherwise.

What began as a routine archival retrieval escalated sharply when Garland launched a criminal investigation in March 2022. The FBI ultimately seized 102 classified documents from Mar-a-Lago, leading to Trump’s June 2023 indictment.

Mizelle noted that the emails he reviewed contradict claims that the Biden White House had no role in the decision to raid Trump’s residence. Officials appear to have moved discussions offline to avoid creating a paper trail, but the tone of the communications sent an unmistakable directive to the Justice Department to act.

Trump’s team continues to investigate the raid, probing the involvement of multiple agencies and the White House in what some see as a coordinated effort to target a political rival.

Ironically, months after the raid on Mar-a-Lago, it emerged that Joe Biden mishandled classified documents, first at his Penn Biden Center office in D.C., then at his Wilmington, Delaware home. Biden was ultimately let off the hook in February 2024, after Special Counsel Robert Hur concluded that while Biden “would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and chose not to recommend prosecution.

Meanwhile, the case against Trump collapsed in July 2024 after a judge ruled that Special Counsel Jack Smith had been improperly appointed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 18:00

Mass Attacks: We're On Our Own

Authored by Mike McDaniel via American Thinker,

The attacks at Bondi Beach, Australia and at Brown University remind us western democracies remain uniquely vulnerable to terrorist attacks, even terrorists armed with common firearms rather than the automatic weapons employed in the Middle East and other hot spots. 

In Australia at least 16, aged 10-87, were killed and some 40 were wounded at a “Chanukah by the Sea” celebration. Yes, the victims were largely Jews, and amazingly, the police think [admit] it was terrorism.  

In this case, the two killers were apparently not “known wolves.”

Naveed Akram, 24, and his 50-year-old father, Sajid, allegedly stormed the family-friendly Chanukah by the Sea event armed with shotguns and a bolt-action rifle…

Akram was disarmed by a bystander and eventually critically wounded by police during the 20-minute attack, while Sajid was killed.

At Brown University, during final exams, a man dressed in black entered a lecture hall,  “yelled something” and opened fire, apparently with a handgun. Two were killed and nine were wounded.  A “person of interest” was detained but was apparently released and the actual killer remains at large. As this is written, there is no apparent motive.

What both attacks have in common is that once they began, the victims were sitting ducks. Gun laws and regulations assured the killers their victims would be unarmed.

Australia doesn’t absolutely ban private ownership of guns, but is an anti-liberty/gun paradise that recognizes no right to self-defense. Citizens may own a narrow range of guns, but restrictions are sufficient to make Australia the envy of American gun grabbers. The entire nation is essentially a gun-free zone. With nearly all of what anti-liberty/gun cracktivists say is necessary to ensure absolute public safety, the Bondi Beach massacre should not have been possible. The Premier of New South Wales, therefore, wants even more gun control:  

NEW: Chris Minns, the Premier of New South Wales, is calling for stronger gun-control measures in the wake of the deadly attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, which left 15 victims dead.

“It means introducing a bill to parliament to — I mean, to be really blunt — make it… pic.twitter.com/26WQz63Ssg

— Fox News (@FoxNews) December 15, 2025

The “horrifying weapons that have no practical use in our community” were a shotgun and bolt action rifle.

At Brown, the gun was reportedly a handgun, not an “assault weapon.” Rhode Island, which recently passed a ban on many types of semiautomatic firearms, does not ban most guns outright and does grudgingly issue concealed carry permits, but has magazine restrictions and a seven day waiting period for gun purchases.  Unsurprisingly, Brown prohibits all firearms on campus.  

By the rhetoric of anti-liberty/gun cracktivists, the Bondi Beach and Brown attacks should have been impossible. Both are magical gun-free zones expressing the good intentions of the morally and intellectually superior. Good intentions, however, inevitably fall prey to reality.  Between 1950 and 2024, 92% of American mass attacks occurred in gun-free zones.   

But aren’t mass shooting deaths higher in gun-crazy America than anyplace else?  Not quite.  From 2009 to 2015, America was #11 in the world.  The most dangerous county? Norway. Even France and Belgium were more dangerous.

In 2015, the Texas Legislature allowed concealed handguns on college campuses. A professor who was about to retire resigned in protest, and students affixed colorful dildos to their backpacks in another act of protest whose connection to guns remains mysterious. With all those dildos, one was bound to go off?  Just as anti-liberty/gun cracktivists wailed when concealed carry laws swept the nation, there would be blood running in the streets and classrooms and gunfights would be as common as sunshine.

None of that came to pass. Americans taking the time and effort to obtain concealed carry licenses are uncommonly law-abiding. The same has been true in the 29 “constitutional carry” states that require no vetting or permit for concealed carry.

But won’t the police protect us? Not here—consider Uvalde--or in Australia:

To be fair, the police did eventually shoot both attackers and stop the attack, but by the time they managed that the damage had been done. At Brown, the only factor limiting damage was the killer’s lack of marksmanship and eventual decision to quit shooting.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 17:40

Trump Admin Launches Retaliatory Strikes In Syria, Hours After Officially Repealing Sanctions

Update (1700ET): Just hours after officially repealing sanctions on the country, the US military began a large-scale attack against Islamic State targets in Syria as the Trump admin retaliated for the death of three Americans last week.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a U.S. military official said Friday that dozens of targets were being struck by U.S. F-15 and A-10 warplanes, Apache attack helicopters and Himars rockets.

The operation is being dubbed “Hawkeye Strike” in honor of the Iowa National Guard soldiers who were killed and wounded in an ambush the Trump administration has blamed on ISIS.

The gunman that ambushed the Americans was killed in the attack.

But President Trump on Sunday vowed to take military action against the group.

“There will be a lot of damage done to the people that did it. They got the person, the individual person, but there will be big damage done,” Trump said at the time.

Syrian authorities last week blamed the ambush on a member of Syria’s security forces who they said was set to be fired for holding extremist views.

*  *  *

Syria is celebrating after President Trump signed a law on Thursday officially repealing the brutal economic sanctions imposed on the country under legislation known as the Caesar Act, which was designed to topple the government of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

The sanctions have for many years effectively strangled millions of innocent people, and even impacted access to medicines, hospital equipment, fuel, and unleashed runaway inflation - sending prices for basic staples like eggs and meat soaring.

Getty Images

Sanctions have been on Syria going all the way back to the 1970s, with more piled on over the decades, especially after 2011, and then the most far-reaching, the Caesar sanctions, took effect in 2019 at a time that Assad was winning the war.

Coupled with the sanctions was a long-running CIA and Gulf-spearheaded proxy war, which flooded jihadist groups with weapons and cash - all for the sake of eventually installing a more pliant client ruler.

Now, one year after Washington accomplished its regime change, and with Bashar al-Assad in Moscow, has Washington chosen to remove the sanctions.

As Beirut-based The Cradle observes, "Trump removed the sanctions in an effort to help Syria’s new government, led by former Al-Qaeda commander Ahmad al-Sharaa, to attract foreign investment, foster economic growth, and rebuild infrastructure after 14 years of war."

Some Congressional leaders are still calling for strict monitoring of the new Sharaa regime's behavior, especially following prior months of massacres of Syrian Alawites, Christians, and Druze:

More than 100 House Republicans are demanding increased oversight of Syria as the U.S. prepares to repeal longstanding sanctions against the country.

Reps. Josh Brecheen, R-Okla., and Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind., are leading 134 fellow GOP lawmakers in calling for guarantees that the Syrian government will adhere to terms in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that set the stage for repealing those sanctions, while warning the U.S. needs to be prepared to reverse that if Syria falters on its progress.

"Many Members of Congress, committed to seeking peace, prosperity, and tolerance for religious minorities in the region, worked with the Trump Administration and House leadership to secure assurances that snapback conditions regarding the repeal of Syrian sanctions would be enforced if Syria does not comply with the terms highlighted in the repeal language," their joint statement read. 

Already, American and Gulf countries have signed deals with the new rulers in Damascus for oil and gas exploration, as well as rebuilding port infrastructure.

Syria’s Al-Sharaa THANKS Trump as country marks first day ‘FREE OF SANCTIONS’ pic.twitter.com/0nYNYkYnqX

— RT (@RT_com) December 19, 2025

"Lifting the sanctions was the frontrunner in our mission to revive Syria’s economy," Abdulkader Husrieh, Syria’s central bank governor, said Friday in reaction to the news. "What has happened is nothing short of a miracle."

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 17:20

Timeline: The Sabotage Of The Clinton Foundation Investigation

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

This week, Senator Chuck Grassley released Department of Justice and FBI records that provide a new look on how FBI and DOJ leadership sabotaged the investigation into the Clinton Foundation.

These records, which include internal emails, summaries of high-level meetings and calls, and intelligence from confidential human sources, reveal the Clinton Foundation investigation was sabotaged from the start.

During the Obama Administration, both DOJ and FBI leadership were openly hostile to the investigation. US Attorneys declined to cooperate, denying requests for subpoenas or other investigative support. And during the first Trump Administration, actors within the FBI and DOJ obstructed and delayed the development of the investigation by not approving the release of FBI materials and slowing the release of witness interviews to investigators. A frustrating tale of corruption and incompetence.

Relying on these new documents, as well as other public source materials and Special Counsel John Durham’s report, here is the comprehensive timeline of the Clinton Foundation investigation, as well as other parts of the overall Clinton corruption investigation that are relevant. It is an infuriating tale of corruption and incompetence from the highest levels of government which ultimately protected the Clinton’s schemes to trade on their political influence for millions of dollars.

Let’s get into it.

2010: Predication to investigate the Clinton Foundation is established. A call between Sant Singh Chatwal and foreign donors about giving to Hillary Clinton is monitored by the FBI. Chatwal is a wealthy NYC magnate and longtime friend of the Clintons. He served on the Clinton Foundation board and was a Clinton Foundation donor, as well as a Democratic fundraiser.

2014: “Beginning in late 2014, before Clinton formally declared her presidential candidacy, the FBI learned from a well-placed CHS that a foreign government was planning to send an individual to contribute to Clinton’s anticipated presidential campaign, as a way to gain influence with Clinton should she win the presidency.”

An FBI field office sought FISA coverage of the foreign person who would contribute to Hillary’s campaign. They sought expedited approval of the FISA application from FBI headquarters, who let the application linger “for approximately four months” because FBI headquarters was “scared with the big name Clinton involved”, as she may be the next President.

The FISA was approved on the condition that Clinton and her campaign be given a defensive briefing. The logic behind the defensive briefing was that “the investigation might interfere with a presumed future presidential campaign.” In other words, they didn’t want to spoil Hillary’s chances.

2015: Through a CHS, the FBI learns of another foreign government seeking to influence the Hillary Clinton campaign. The foreign government’s plan is to set up a meeting with Clinton to propose campaign contributions in exchange for the protection of the foreign government’s interests should Clinton become president.

The FBI learns that this CHS – a foreign national – made a $2,700 campaign contribution through another party, in violation of federal law. The FBI further learned through the CHS that the Clinton campaign was “aware” of the contribution and “okay” with it. Yet the FBI does not document the illegal contribution in its records and the handling agent instructed the CHS to “stay away from all events relating to Clinton’s campaign.”

2015: The FBI’s Washington Field Office takes notice of corruption by the Clinton Foundation, which was thoroughly documented by Peter Schweizer’s “Clinton Cash.” They hold a meeting with the DOJ to discuss the potential for an investigation.

January 2016: The New York FBI field office and the Washington FBI Field Office open preliminary investigations into the Clinton Foundation. The Little Rock Field Office opens a full field investigation.

The Little Rock and New York FBI field office investigations “included predication based on source reporting that identified foreign governments that had made, or offered to make, contributions to the Foundation in exchange for favorable or preferential treatment from Clinton.”

January 2016: FBI leadership told the field offices to “not take any investigative steps until the matter was discussed with DOJ.”

January 22, 2016: The FBI New York field office submits case opening regarding Clinton Foundation and Clinton/Giustra Enterprise Partnership.

January 27, 2016: FBI little Rock requests full investigation regarding the Clinton Foundation and Giustra Enterprise Partnership; Uranium One; Frank Giustra; and Ian Telfer.

January 29, 2016: The FBI Washington Field Office makes a request to Main Justice to open a preliminary investigation on the Clinton Foundation. The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and the Public Integrity Section (PIN) and the DOJ “support the initiation of a preliminary investigation.”

February 1, 2016: Andrew McCabe is appointed FBI Deputy Director.

February 2016:

• The Washington Field Office briefs the DOJ, who “indicated they would not be supportive of an FBI investigation.” Records indicate that the DOJ implied the investigation was only “based on open source reporting and fishing through a book,” though the truth was that the FBI had Suspicious Activity Reporting and their own investigative work at the time.

• The DOJ’s reaction to the briefing was “hostile.”

• The three FBI field offices – New York, Washington DC, and Little Rock – are informed that investigative steps would require approval of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. They are further instructed “not to open or recruit any new confidential human sources, and no additional overt investigative steps were authorized.”

• Discussing the Clinton Foundation investigation, Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates tells the Eastern District of Arkansas to “shut it down.”

February 17, 2016: McCabe was informed of a New York confidential human source who had possible information on the Clinton Foundation. McCabe directed that “no overt investigative steps” be taken on the Clinton Foundation investigation without his approval.

February 22, 2016: Deputy Director McCabe chairs an FBI headquarters meeting to discuss the Clinton Foundation investigations. McCabe initially directed the field offices to close their cases, but agreed to reconsider after the offices voiced their objections. McCabe was visibly “annoyed” and “negative” and “angry” at the meeting, asking “why are we even doing this?” McCabe then instructed that his approval was required for any overt steps.

February 24, 2016: Lisa Page and Peter Strzok exchange these emails regarding the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server while she was Secretary of State:

Page: One more thing: [Clinton] may be our next president. The last thing you need [is] going in there loaded for bear. You think she’s going to remember or care that it was more doj than fbi?

Strzok: Agreed . . .

March 2016: The Eastern District of New York is given permission by the DOJ to meet with a cooperating witness “to review transcripts of the recording between the cooperating witness and an individual associated with the Clinton Foundation.”

May 2016: The New York field office receives a call from FBI headquarters on behalf of Director Comey, instructing them to “cease and desist” from the Clinton Foundation investigation.

June 7, 2016: Hillary Clinton clinches the Democratic presidential nomination.

July 2016: Deputy Director McCabe tells the Eastern District of Arkansas to “shut it down.” A collateral investigation into the Clinton Foundation is “walled off” at the instructions of McCabe.

July 20, 2016: FBI emails document FBI leadership’s instructions to hold off on the Clinton Foundation investigation:

• “Don’t subpoena additional records related to the Foundation, the Clintons…”

• “Don’t conduct any interviews related to the Foundation or the Clintons.”

• “We don’t want to create any impression we are investigating the Clinton Foundation or the Clintons”

August 1, 2016: The FBI makes the decision to consolidate the Clinton Foundation investigation into the New York Field Office due to its existing confidential human source and because “the majority of Clinton Foundation operations were based out of New York City.” At this time, the “FBI NYO was advised no overt investigation action was to take place unless authorized by Deputy Director McCabe.”

August 2016: The Eastern District of New York informs the FBI New York Field Office that it “would not support the investigation.” The New York Field Office reaches out to the Southern District of New York, which states “more than likely the decision will be not to proceed.” At this time, New York FBI agents had requested subpoenas for financial documents from several financial institutions.

August 25, 2016: FBI New York conducts interviews (number unknown) for a corruption probe related to Haiti. The subjects included Anthony Rodham (Hillary’s brother), Cheryl Mills (high level Hillary advisor), and the Clinton Foundation.

September 1, 2016: McCabe informs the Eastern District of New York (to whom the financial subpoenas had been requested) that there be “no overt action” on the Clinton Foundation investigation.

October 23, 2016: The Wall Street Journal breaks a story concerning donations from Terry McCauliffe-affiliated political action committees to the Virginia state senate campaign of Andrew McCabe’s wife.

October 25, 2016: There is a top-level FBI discussion which included McCabe where it is agreed that no subpoenas will be issued concerning the Clinton Foundation until after the election.

October 28, 2016: Director Comey informs Congress that the FBI discovered additional Clinton-related emails in the Weiner investigation. Also in the fall of 2016, FBI headquarters will refuse to allow Clinton Foundation investigators to review these emails or coordinate with the Midyear Investigation (the Hillary Clinton email investigation).

November 1, 2016: McCabe sends an email recusing himself from the Clinton Foundation investigation.

November 8, 2016: Donald Trump is elected President.

And then things get really interesting! Click here to subscribe and read the rest.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 17:00

'Patriot Games': UFC Fight At White House To Celebrate America's 250th Anniversary

President Donald Trump announced on Dec. 18 that an athletic contest and a UFC fight will occur next year in honor of America’s 250th birthday.

The “Patriot Games” will span four days, featuring high school athletes - a male and a female from each state and territory, the president said.

He did not go into details as to what would be played or where.

Trump said that the men and women will compete separately.

“I promise there will be no men playing in women’s sports. You’re not going to see that. You'll see everything but that.”

As Jackson Richman reports for The Epoch Times, the UFC fight will be at the White House on June 14, 2026.

“It'll be the greatest champion fighters in the world all fighting that same night,” said Trump, noting that UFC CEO and President Dana White will be the host.

“And it’s going to be something special.”

Trump is a huge UFC fan and is a close friend of White.

He has been to numerous events, including one after winning the 2024 election.

The South Lawn at the White House will be the venue for the fight.

The Ellipse, across from the White House, might have jumbo screens for more people to watch.

The competitors have not been announced.

A press conference and the fighters’ weigh-ins will be at the Lincoln Memorial.

Other events to celebrate the 250th milestone include a state fair on the National Mall, a Memorial Day parade, and a national prayer event to “rededicate our country as One Nation Under God,” Trump said.

“We’re not changing that. A lot of people would like to see it. It'll never happen,” he said.

Trump also announced a Fourth of July celebration called a “Salute to America” consisting of a presidential address, military flyover, and fireworks.

Additionally, the Washington Monument will be lit every night through Jan. 5.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 16:40

"No Arrests!" But More 'Developments'...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The frantic ceremonies of Christmas shopping climax now. . . the stockings are hung by the chimney with care. . . and the republic judders into the darkest season of an evil era.

You fear the one gift you have waited for lo these twelve months will not be delivered: the frog-marching of Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Strzok, HRC, Mayorkas, Monaco, Rosenstein, Priestap, Halper, Yates, Lynch, Garland, Wray, Haynes, Sullivan, Schiff, Warner, Eisen, Elias, Weissmann, Jack Smith. . . and many other deep state treason-goblins into the maw of a federal courthouse for processing like so many mackerel in a cat food cannery.

“No arrests!” is the melancholy cry heard from sea to shining sea.

It’s true.

A whole year ticked by and no accountability for the immense decade-long free-ranging crime-spree against our country by so many government officials. Did I leave out Mr. Obama? Yes. He would probably have to dangle as an “unindicted co-conspirator,” cuz president, and all. But maybe not. It’s open to interpretation, I grant you. . . assuming anyone in the Trump DOJ could actually get serious and move a folder off his/her desk. Anyway, Christmas is upon us and the MAGA minions sulk in despair. No arrests!

And no Epstein files for you either, Tiny Tim, after all this hassling, haggling, screwing-around, trash-talk, innuendo, duplicity, dissimulation, and subterfuge. What is in there, do you suppose, that the country couldn’t take? Photos of Bill Clinton riding Ghislaine Maxwell like a bucking bronco? Larry Summers naked as a manatee in the shallow end of the Little St. James pool? Tom Hanks chowing down on a roasted human heart? You see: that’s where the mind goes when the truth is withheld.

Anyway, Dan Bongino, good old Danny Boombatz, has left the building, visibly sadder but wiser.

Dan Bongino leaves the J Edgar Hoover Building

He is — no sarc here — a first-class American patriot. Do not doubt that.

He surely took the job as Deputy Director of the FBI because the president importuned him to do so, and how can you say no when a president calls? Yet, something happened to him in FBI HQ, some dark passage into altered consciousness, and now he is out.

It’s pretty obvious that he missed his wife and children, and his former life in Florida, and his days on the mic in his studio. . . and that he had to suffer being quartered on some dreary DC military base for his safety the whole time he served the FBI. I suppose he accomplished quite a bit of a routine, plodding, law enforcement nature — catching bad guys and such all year. But. . . and it’s a big but. . . he was not able to effectuate the rounding-up of the aforementioned deep state villains we all know about — and hardly anyone knew more about that gang than Danny B — and it must have really grated to see them all still out there, flapping their gums on MSNBC.

He connected the dots, month after month and year after year, on his celebrated podcast better than any reporter in whatever pathetic remnant of the news media still exists. He remembered all the names (as he always reminded his audience to do). He saw how the whole treasonous saga played out from RussiaGate to Arthur Engoron’s malodorous courtroom and he knew exactly how all the pieces fit together. And the whole year he was at the FBI he kept his mouth shut out of a sense of duty.

Which leads you to wonder, what might Dan Bongino have to say now that he is out of the FBI inner sanctum? He had a year to sift through every document stashed in the J Edgar Hoover building, including, probably, a shit-load of incriminating memos and emails from the days of McCabe and Wray, all that stuff they found in the burn-bags. Did he have to sign some kind of non-disclosure document? Are there arcane regulations that we don’t know about constraining former FBI employees? Will his enemies — who are also enemies of the people — try to kill him now that he is on-the-loose?

I guess we’ll just have to stand by and see what happens with Dan Bongino, just as we have to stand by on where anything might go at Kash’s FBI and in Pam Bondi’s DOJ — and just about everybody in the public arena is piling on AG Pam Bondi these days. She’s in a tough spot.

Can’t really bring any prosecutions in the hopelessly compromised, woked-up, DEI-infested, Trump-deranged DC federal court district — where so many treasonous crimes were committed.

So, the work-around for that has been to tie all the ten years of treasons and seditious acts into one skein of a RICO case, allowing the DOJ to run a prosecution for all of it out of the Southern District of Florida, because that’s where one of the more recent crimes occurred in a chain of conspiracy: the unpredicated raid into Mar-a-Lago by Christopher Wray and prosecutor Jack Smith. It also works around various statute of limitation issues.

That case is underway, under Judge Aileen Cannon and prosecuting US Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones, but apparently will not go to the grand jury until sometime in the new year.

So, you will just have to cool your jets a bit longer.

One other thing: will White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles do some ‘splainin’ about what possessed her to shoot her mouth off at Vanity Fair, one of the most out-front, scurrilous enemies of the president and his voters in all the mosh pits of Woke-gay-retarded journalism? She sat with their writers eleven times in 2025, and the result was a hit piece on the whole Trump White House.

How does this square with everybody saying she’s the savviest Chief of Staff to ever haunt the West Wing?

Can you figure how she doesn’t deserve to be fired for that?

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 16:20

What Inflation Alarmists Missed In Their Warnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the ongoing deficits. They have all argued, in some form or another, that ballooning deficits, tariffs, and the “dollar debasement” would drive inflation much higher, with yields of 6% or more on the 10-year Treasury as inevitable.

As Jeff Gundlach noted in June of this year, a “reckoning is coming” for U.S. debt, and yields on long-term bonds could continue to rise as the economy weakens. Paul Tudor Jones said in October 2024 that “all roads lead to inflation.” Lastly, in June 2024, James Grant stated that “persistent inflation” is the new norm.

However, while these are brilliant, well-regarded gentlemen, the forecasts have not panned out, at least so far, as they believed, because they ignored the structural weight of the “3-Ds” (Debt, Deficits, and Demographics) on economic growth, which drives inflation.

Of course, it hasn’t been just these three gentlemen discussing higher inflation and higher interest rates. Inflation alarmists have filled media headlines over the last few years, making a myriad of claims, but they have misunderstood what drives inflation in a consumer-driven economy. Furthermore, they misjudged the nature of money creation in a debt-saturated system.

Veil Of Money

Let’s start by understanding the basics of money supply. The media often states that the Government is “printing money,” which will lead to inflation. The reasoning is sound on the surface; if a government prints more dollars, each of those dollars has less value, in theory. However, that view misses two crucial points. First, as discussed in “Money Printing,” the government does not “print money.”

“Modern economies operate under an endogenous money system, meaning banks create money in response to economic activity. As the Bank of England explained in its 2014 paper “Money creation in the modern economy,” it is not central banks that directly dictate broad money growth, but rather commercial banks extending credit when they see viable opportunities. Put simply: loans create deposits.“

Re-read that last bolded sentence, which is the most critical point. The U.S. does not “print” money. All money is lent into existence, as we continued explaining in that post.

“This means that the growth of the money supply closely follows the economy’s growth. When businesses expand, hire, and invest, banks extend more credit, and the money supply grows. Conversely, when the economy slows and loan demand weakens, money supply growth contracts, regardless of how much the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet. We saw this after 2008: despite unprecedented quantitative easing, money growth and inflation remained subdued because banks hoarded reserves instead of lending.

 It’s easy to point to M2 charts and scream “debasement. “ However, the money supply must grow as the economy grows. If it doesn’t, deflationary risks emerge. Therefore, the key is whether money creation exceeds economic growth in a sustained way. Since 1959, the money supply has grown in alignment with economic growth.”

A better way to assess this is by comparing M2 to GDP. Historically, the two have tracked closely. Even during the COVID-19 shock, M2 as a percentage of GDP remained below 100%, indicating that money supply growth was broadly aligned with economic output. Today, that ratio is falling, not rising.

The reality is that the growth rates of M2 highly correlate with the state of the economy.

This brings us to the “Veil of Money” theory, which posits that money serves as a neutral medium of exchange, affecting only the nominal price level, but not the underlying fundamental economic factors, such as output, employment, and the allocation of resources. In this view, money overlays the real economy like a veil, and to understand economic activity, one must “pierce the monetary veil.”

During the pandemic, the money supply spiked. But that’s not the whole story. Bank reserves ballooned, yet lending barely moved. Consumer demand rose temporarily due to direct payments, rather than a structural shift in consumption. Once those payments stopped and the economy reopened, that demand faded, supply increased, and inflation started to recede. In other words, the increase in the money supply did not alter the real economy; in fact, it may have worsened it.

As such, the problem for the inflation alarmists is that inflation occurs only when demand exceeds supply. In a service-based, aging economy that’s already over-leveraged, such a demand surge rarely occurs sustainably.

While the inflation surge of 2021 and 2022 was real, it wasn’t systemic. It was the result of excessive government interventions in concert with global supply shocks. That combination created a short-term explosion in prices. But it was never sustainable.

The 3 D’s: Debt, Deficits, Demographics

To understand why inflation alarmists have been incorrect, at least so far, you have to understand the “3Ds”: Debt, Deficits, and Demographics.

Let’s return to the basics of “inflation,” which is simply the function of “supply and demand.” Nothing more. Nothing less. As we noted previously:

“Inflation is the rise in prices due to supply and demand imbalances. Rising wages and consumer demand for products and services that grow faster than the available supply create higher prices (aka inflation). The following economic illustration is taught in every ‘Econ 101’ class. Unsurprisingly, inflation is the consequence if supply is restricted and demand increases via monetary interventions.”

With this concept in mind, let’s start with the debt. Currently, total U.S. debt, comprising government, corporate, and household debt, stands at record levels. As shown below, when that debt, as a percentage of GDP, grows, it slows economic activity as increased interest payments consume income, thereby limiting consumption and investment.

What the inflation alarmists miss is that every dollar borrowed must be repaid with future income. As more income is allocated to servicing debt, less is available for spending, which reduces demand in the economy and, as shown, leads to lower inflation. That’s why high debt is deflationary, not inflationary. Such is also why expectations of yields hitting 6% or more remain unfounded, as an economy that is dependent on debt to function can’t support higher rates.

The second “D”, deficits, are also problematic to the inflation alarmists’ view. Annual deficits are now routine. The government borrows to fund everything from defense to entitlements to foreign aid, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting trillion-dollar deficits for the next decade. As the deficit grows, more money is diverted from productive investments into debt service, which again negatively impacts economic activity. As shown, when the deficit is reduced, it is because economic activity has increased, resulting in higher revenue for the government and potentially leading to inflationary pressures.

The long-term consequence of persistent deficits is low growth as more debt is needed to generate less output. That dynamic has played out in Japan, Europe, and now the U.S. However, ironically, while everyone hopes for lower inflation, which is economically repressive, we should be discussing how to increase inflation through stronger economic growth.

Lastly, the most overlooked driver of disinflation is the decline of demographics in the U.S. The population is aging, and the U.S. workforce growth rate is falling. Immigration has slowed. Birth rates are down. Fewer workers and more retirees result in lower production and consumption. Older people spend less. They don’t buy homes, take out loans, and live on fixed incomes, which translates to lower economic velocity.

At the same time, entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare are proliferating, absorbing an increasing share of the federal budget. That adds to debt, increasing deficits, which feeds into economic retardation.

Put all three together, high debt, chronic deficits, and an aging population, and you get structural stagnation, keeping inflation low, capping long-term rates, and reducing economic prosperity.

What the Market Is Telling You

The bond market isn’t stupid. When inflation spiked, yields rose, briefly. But as soon as growth slowed and fiscal drag returned, yields fell. Long-term expectations remain subdued, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate still near 2.3 percent. The Fed’s own projections indicate that inflation will return to target over time. As shown, the spike in the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, has returned to the bond market’s view of inflation. While the Fed took a lot of heat for saying inflation would be “transient,” ultimately, they were correct.

If inflation were going to stay hot, you’d see it in long-dated yields and in the breakeven rates. However, for now, at least, you don’t. That’s because markets understand what Wall Street celebrities don’t: structural forces matter more than temporary shocks.

If you’re expecting another surge in inflation, you’re betting against demographics, debt dynamics, and deficit math. That’s probably going to be a bad bet.

Here’s what you should prepare for instead:

• Inflation will remain volatile but is expected to trend lower.

• Long-term yields will stay capped by debt service constraints.

• Growth will slow as the stimulus fade continues.

• The Fed will pivot again — not toward more hikes, but to rate cuts and balance sheet expansion.

Does this mean we won’t ever see another rise in inflationary pressures? No. In fact, we should be hopeful for such due to economic growth that leads to broader economic prosperity.

However, the calls for runaway inflation and 6 percent interest rates are primarily a misunderstanding of the world in which we live. We are not in a 1970s cycle, but rather in a debt cycle where every dollar of growth incurs more debt, and every attempt to tighten policy leads to deflationary pressures.

That’s not a theory. It’s what the data shows. And until something changes in the structure of our economy, it’s what you should expect.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 15:40

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

Excerpt:

While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report showed that the median existing home sales price (total and single-family) in November was up just 1.2% from a year earlier, well below both consensus and what local realtor/MLS data would have suggested. The source of this surprise was in the Northeast, where the NAR’s median existing home sales price estimate was up just 1.1% from last November, and the median existing single-family home sales price estimate was up only 0.9% YOY. Such an anemic gain was completely inconsistent with state realtor data from the Northeast, as the table below shows.

There is much more in the article.

Kevin Plank, Goldman Sachs Exit Any Further Development Of Billion-Dollar Ghost Town

Under Armour founder and CEO Kevin Plank, along with Goldman Sachs, is stepping away from further development of Baltimore Peninsula, formerly known as Port Covington, a 235-acre mixed-use waterfront redevelopment project in South Baltimore. Originally pitched as a 14-million-square-foot mini-city anchored by a new UA headquarters, a new report says less than 10% of the planned project has been built.

Representatives for Plank's real estate development company, Sagamore Ventures, and its equity partner, Goldman Sachs, told the local paper, The Baltimore Banner, that they will remain owners of the current Baltimore Peninsula development but will exit the rest of the project, much of which remains underdeveloped.

"Baltimore Peninsula is becoming a dynamic, connected community that adds real momentum to South Baltimore and serves as a source of pride for Under Armour and the city," Plank told the outlet.

The UA CEO said he wants to "remain focused on leading UA's comeback" and will let others "take the lead in carrying forward the next chapters of Baltimore Peninsula's development."

Kevin Plank exiting future development at Baltimore Peninsula.

Read more: https://t.co/aXJy5c0JOc pic.twitter.com/KyIKi9ICtx

— The Baltimore Banner (@BaltimoreBanner) December 18, 2025

The decision to withdraw from the rest of the project apparently hinged on a $66 million land loan that came due this past fall. Instead of paying the full amount, Plank and Goldman negotiated with Bank OZK, which would take over the project and be responsible for future development.

Plank and UA made massive bets on the mini-city, situated in the heart of crime-ridden Baltimore City, a metro area that has experienced one of the largest population exoduses in generations...

Much of the exodus has been driven by disastrous one-party Democratic rule, particularly failed social and criminal justice reforms. The result was a spike in violent crime after the 2015 riots, and people either fled the struggling state or moved to surrounding counties.

Perhaps one direct consequence of the failures at City Hall is that crime and chaos hindered Plank's mini-city from ever gaining traction. After all, the city once pitched Amazon on moving its second headquarters to the metro area, but seriously, why would any rational management team put white-collar workers in harm's way when parts of Baltimore still resemble war zones?

But it wasn't just Baltimore City's horrendous leadership of Democratic kings... The UA brand has lost traction with consumers, and its stock has imploded as the company works on a turnaround plan.

Meanwhile, Plank has been offloading real estate assets in the area, or at least attempting to, such as an $18.5 million, 500-acre racehorse farm, Sagamore Farm, just north of the city.

The reason Plank and Goldman are likely stepping away from further development of the mini-city is simple: it has been called a "billion-dollar ghost town."

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 15:20

Russia's Oil Exports Face Delays As Tankers Take 70% Longer Route

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Oil tankers carrying Russian oil appear to be avoiding the fastest Black Sea route to the Turkish straits and travel along the Georgian and Turkish coasts to avoid drone attacks from Ukraine, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

In recent weeks, several ships linked to Russia have been hit by Ukrainian drones in the Black Sea. All targeted vessels were empty at the time of the strikes.  

At least two tankers that have loaded oil from Novorossiysk, the Russian port on the Black Sea, have recently traveled along the Georgian and Turkish coasts instead of taking the shortest route to the Bosphorus Strait, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. 

The detour along the Georgian and Turkish coasts would add about 350 miles, or 70%, to the journey of an oil tanker from the port of Novorossiysk to the Turkish straits. 

Crude oil exports from the Russian terminals on the Black Sea were much lower in November than originally planned as bad weather and Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure have delayed loadings and departures. 

Ukrainian attacks have also crippled Russia’s fuel exports from the Black Sea ports in recent weeks.  

Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in southern Russia and the Black Sea oil port of Tuapse crippled exports of fuels from the Black Sea export terminals in November. 

The port of Tuapse suspended fuel exports for half of the month of November, due to the drone attack at the port infrastructure in early November.  

An attack on another Black Sea port, Novorossiysk, also led to a slump in crude and fuel shipments. 

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles. The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 15:00

Centrus Energy Soars After Starting Commercial Uranium Enrichment Activity

The long awaited buildout of Centrus Energy’s uranium enrichment facility is finally underway as the company announced this morning it has begun constructing new centrifuges to support commercial production of low-enriched uranium (LEU). LEU stock is surging as much as 14% on the news. 

Why should anyone care though? We already have Urenco producing massive quantities of LEU in New Mexico. They’ve been producing millions of separative work units (SWU) worth of enriched uranium for use in the domestic commercial fleet of reactors in the US for years. They even export some of that enrichment to foreign reactor operators.

What makes the Centrus effort so special?

The difference is that under Trump, the US is done relying on others for its fuel. Not just gas or oil, but now uranium as well. Almost a quarter of US enriched uranium is imported from Russia, with the rest coming from companies like Urenco and Orano, all owned by foreign governments.

The US hasn’t produced its own uranium since the last plant closed in 2013, one of the major policy failures following the drop in approval for the use of nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

Companies like Centrus Energy, BWXT, and General Matter, are both US owned and operated. The American ownership of the technology and the state-side location of operations enables the nuclear fuel to be labeled as unobligated.

Obligated fuel means in order to produce it, the use of foreign technology or equipment occurred at some point in the fuel chain, meaning the fuel cannot be used for US government purposes of any kind. All of the fuel that’s used in the US Navy’s submarine and carrier reactors, DoE research reactors, all the reactors under the Army’s Janus Program, as well as the multiple other programs that are ongoing with the US government, will not be able to use fuel that is obligated.

Only companies like General Matter, BWXT, and Centrus, can produce fuel that is allowed to be used by the US government for government purposes.

Centrus will rely on its domestic manufacturing chain to produce the AC100M enrichment centrifuge design, which is built on the AC100 design used in past enrichment cascades. With backing from the DoE’s LEU award program, international backing from South Korea, and recent significant capital raises and convertible notes offerings, Centrus has the capital on hand and the backlog stacked up to support the buildout of new enrichment capacity. They are already producing high-assay LEU (HALEU), which was developed with the DoE over the past few years.

The first production of LEU is expected in 2029.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 14:20

Putin Identifies The Main Issue Which Will Settle Ukraine War In Year-End Q&A

Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear during his annual end of year question-and-answer session in Moscow that the matter of Ukraine ceding land which Russia now controls is the heart of the issue when it comes to peace talks. The issue of territory gained, lost, to be ceded or not, remains the prime topic that must be considered, but it's the very thing that Ukraine's Zelensky refuses to talk about or compromise on, Putin explained.

"We know from statements from Zelenskyy that he’s not prepared to discuss territory issues," Putin told Q&A attendees in the capital’s Gostiny Dvor exhibition hall.

via TASS

The Kremlin has pressed for Ukrainian troops to exit the Donbass, reduce the size of Kiev's military, and for their to be international legal recognition that annexed eastern territories are part of the Russian Federation.

What's more is that after the capture of the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk in early December, Putin expects his forces will soon gobble up more territory.

Putin declared he's "certain that before the year’s end we will witness new successes of our armed forces, our fighters."

He named specific places were Russian forces remain ascendent, according to state media translation:

There is also intensive fighting for Krasny Liman and Dmitrov, as well as Gulyay Pole in Zaporozhye Region, the president added.

In the south, Russian forces have captured the city of Kupyansk and are pressuring the Ukrainian battlegroup that dug in at a large railway juncture nearby. Putin said some 3,500 Ukrainian troops there “have virtually no chances” to survive after being denied a request to retreat.

"The time will come when our guys finish their work destroying the encircled Ukrainian forces on the northern bank of the river and turn to the west. That will happen pretty soon," Putin said.

Putin went on to explain that Zelensky's efforts to hold territory "at any cost" will only result in more devastating losses for Ukraine, and that sooner or later he'll be forced to concede at the future negotiating table, accepting defeat.

Speaking of prior efforts to solve the conflict, Putin said further of the Ukrainian side: "After the talks in Istanbul, they initially agreed... and then backed out, throwing all of those agreements into the trash. And now, in effect, they are refusing to bring this conflict to an end through peaceful means."

"Still, we see, feel and know that there are certain signals, including those coming from the Kyiv regime, indicating that they are prepared to engage in some form of dialogue," he added, expressing apparent hope for the Trump peace proposal.

❗️'No': Putin Bluntly Answers Strange BBC Question About If There Will Be More Special Military Operations

"If you treat us with respect and respect our interests as we always do with yours. As long as you don't play dirty tricks with us like about NATO expansion." pic.twitter.com/rNWAX1tV2M

— RT_India (@RT_India_news) December 19, 2025

The annual Q&A event has stretched back to 2001, and draws literally millions of submitted questions from the Russian public via phone, text and online platforms. An artificial intelligence system from there analyzes the submitted questions to identify common themes, which are then asked of Putin in the televised event.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 14:00

Federal Regulators Issue Order Requiring Large-Load Users Pay To Grow Grid

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

Federal regulators have directed the nation’s largest regional electricity transmission organization to link, or “co-locate,” data centers and other industrial users with existing or new power-generating plants in order to speed development, trim infrastructure costs, and require large-load users to pay for expanding the grid.

The five-member Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Dec. 18 unanimously ordered PJM, which delivers electricity to more than 1,100 utilities serving 67 million customers across 12 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states, to create two new transmission contract types, revise generator interconnection rules, respond within 30 days with options to meet demand, and provide a report detailing “ongoing initiatives to reduce practical and financial barriers … to efficiently connect new large loads” by February 2026.

Under the commission’s order, PJM must clarify that a power generator cannot leave the grid to serve a co-located load until all transmission upgrades needed to maintain reliability are installed, an interim network service is established “to provide a bridge” while new infrastructure is being built, and rules that “safeguard grid reliability and protect consumers” are strengthened.

“Today, FERC is pushing our country forward in the artificial intelligence and manufacturing revolution,” FERC Chair Laura Swett said. “While uncertainty has abounded across our country on how we will facilitate data centers, my colleagues and I are taking a critical step to give investors and consumers more certainty.”

She assured any member of the public who might qualify as a “non-FERC nerd” that the rule, which is more than 100 pages long and “highly technical,” can “solve the problem of meeting historic surging demand and realize our greatest potential as a country also while safeguarding the prices that we pay for electricity.”

In highlighting “a few core concepts,” Swett said the commission’s first priority was to ensure households and small businesses are not forced to pay for grid expansions fostered by demand from data centers and other large-load electricity customers.

“The reality is that large loads can be flexible in the amount of transmission service they use, but that they should pay their fair share for that service so consumers are not overly burdened,” she said.

The order recognizes PJM’s existing transmission services “are insufficient” and “do not recognize the controllable nature of co-location arrangements,” Swett said, adding that PJM’s current rate allocation imposes an “unjust and unreasonable” expense on existing customers.

The rule was issued a day after PJM’s capacity auction for the 2027–2028 delivery year fell short by 6,600 megawatts—enough electricity to power 4 million homes—of its reliability requirement and in the wake of a June report by Monitoring Analytics, its independent market monitor, that fast-tracked data center development will cost PJM customers as much $9.4 billion in coming years.

“PJM is not alone,” Commissioner Judy Chang said. “We just see it more visibly with PJM. So I think there’s just a lot more work to do” in ensuring households and small businesses do not foot the bill for data center-driven grid expansion.

Florida-based Data Center Map identifies 4,297 data centers that are operating in the United States, including 668 in Virginia, 245 in Illinois, and 217 in Ohio.

Definitions vary on what a “data center” is, and some estimates suggest there are more than 6,000 of them in the United States. An operation can generally be defined as a data center if it supplies power for AI, quantum computing, or cryptocurrencies.

President Donald Trump has identified rapid grid expansion to power data centers and AI development as a national priority. In October, he cited a Rand Corporation report that said that while China increased its power generation capacity by approximately 429 gigawatts in 2024, the United States only added about 65 gigawatts and must add 80 to 90 gigawatts a year in new generation to keep pace with demand.

Trump issued a July executive order that streamlines permitting for data center projects that produce at least 100 megawatts of new electricity load dedicated to AI, training, simulation, or synthetic data generation” and are supported by at least $500 million in committed private capital investment—especially if they generate their own “behind-the-meter” electricity and can be a generative source for nearby utilities.

Good Day For ‘Non-FERC Nerds’

“Behind-the-meter” electricity generation that supplements existing “front-of-meter” utility capacity or is built and consumed by new large-load users in a grid network is one of the goals of the new rule, Commissioner David Rosner said.

“What we’re enabling through these new co-location options is really simple,” he said. “When you connect a power plant directly to a large load like a data center, you minimize the impact on the grid because you don’t use the grid as much, and in turn, this limits the impacts on the bills that regular families and small businesses see.”

Of course, to a “non-FERC nerd,” there’s nothing simple about the nation’s electric grid and the matrix of federal, state, and local laws, regulations, and rules that apply to its 7,300 power plants, 160,000 miles of high-voltage power lines, millions of miles of low-voltage power lines, and distribution transformers managed by more than 3,000 utilities and regional transmission operators in wholesale and retail markets.

But Rosner gave it a shot.

“Today’s order directs PJM to create two new transmission services. We call them firm and non-firm contract demand,” he said, describing “firm” demand as what the developer and utility agree to in “net withdrawal” from its generation capacity and “non-firm” demand as its “behind-the-meter” generation.

“So for example,” Rosner explained, “consider a 1,000 megawatt data center that co-locates with a new 900 megawatt power plant. The data center wants to take 100 megawatts from the PJM grid [firm] and get the remaining 900 megawatts of supply from the on-site power plant [non-firm].”

The order directs PJM to clarify that a generator cannot leave the grid to serve a co-located load until all transmission upgrades needed to maintain reliability are in service, with the cost of those upgrades allocated 100 percent to the new large-load user, he said.

“So this means that generators comprising the backbone of today’s grid cannot abandon existing customers, unless and until those generators and their large load customers—not other ratepayers— build the transmission upgrades needed to maintain reliable service for everyone else,” Rosner said.

The order requires PJM to establish an interim network service to provide “a bridge” while the infrastructure needed to serve a large load with traditional front-of-meter network integration and transmission service is being built, he said.

Story continues below advertisement

The bottom line, Rosner said, is that similar orders that will largely replicate directives issued to PJM are going to be the standard in addressing the nation’s need to quickly grow its grid.

“It takes too long to build new infrastructure in this country and that definitely includes transmission. So building the upgrades we require to convert an existing power plant to hook into a co-located load” is the swiftest, least expensive, and fairest way to do it, he said.

Commissioner David LaCerte, noting the commission hasn’t created a “major new transmission service” since the 1990s, said the order “marks an important milestone here at FERC and for our nation, a giant leap forward for President Trump’s agenda of American energy dominance and artificial intelligence advancement.”

Even “non-FERC nerds” will understand that, he said.

“Artificial intelligence data centers and re-industrialization are dominating our dialogue, not only here at FERC, but at the kitchen tables of America. AI has the potential to revolutionize our way of life in nearly every manner, but we must first build it,” LaCerte said. “We must acknowledge that we need to think differently, be bold yet smart with our actions, and we need to accept the reality that the status quo has become untenable.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 13:40

Russia Keeps Slamming The Door In Europe's Face

By Maartje Wijffelaars, Senior Economist at Rabobank

Crash Averted

It’s been a busy week in Europe, before the start of the holiday season. Heavy meetings in Brussels, monetary policy decisions, and intense peace talks in which Europe is trying hard to get its foot in the door, while Russia—at times aided by the U.S.—continues to slam it shut.

Yesterday, EU leaders have agreed to provide a EUR 90bn loan to Ukraine for 2026-2027. The EU won’t use frozen Russian assets as collateral, but rather borrow money on the capital markets against the headroom in the EU budget. The headroom is the difference between existing budget commitments and the amount EU countries can be called upon to contribute to the budget.

Put simply, this means that if Ukraine fails to repay, EU governments are liable through their contributions to the EU budget. Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia managed to get an opt out from the guarantees, in exchange for not blocking the loan. Leaders agreed that Ukraine would only have to repay the loan if it receives reparation payments from Russia. Absent those payments, Russian assets remain immobilized and the EU could still decide to use the frozen assets to repay the loan. Yet that would still require a majority agreement in the Council, which is as unlikely to gain approval from Belgium and others later as it was now.  

Leaders have also stated that Ukraine entrance to the EU is an important part of peace negotiations and that it is important to make progress on that front. Some argue that the EU’s mutual defense clause could provide similar guarantees to NATO’s Article 5, whose relevance has been questioned by the U.S. That said, support EU member states have to lend to a fellow in case of attack “to the best of their ability” arguably not necessarily concerns military aid. Broad agreement on the importance of Ukraine membership, however, doesn’t mean leaders agree Ukraine should be able to enter without fulfilling the legal and institutional requirements that are attached to EU membership – or at all if you ask Hungary’s Orbán. Necessity is the mother of invention, but the process could easily still take years.

In that light, reports that the US, EU allies and Ukraine are getting close to a formal agreement on strong security guarantees for Ukraine are more promising. It would allow for EU boots on the ground at a distance from the frozen frontline, in case of a peace deal. Talks are said to continue today and tomorrow in the US. That said, Russia has so far been unwilling to allow NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine. So it’s highly doubtful that Putin would agree to a deal including forces of individual NATO members being stationed in Ukraine. If anything, Putin made clear this week that the territorial goals of his invasion have not changed and that he wants to pursue those goals either through diplomacy or force.

Meanwhile, the Mercosur deal hasn’t made it to a vote yet. The Commission’s Von der Leyen was supposed to travel to South America this Saturday to sign the deal. But, France, Italy, Poland and Hungary, remained unhappy with the safeguards to protect EU farmers already included and asked for more. The vote has been pushed to January, after Italy’s Meloni called Brazil’s president Lula to ask for a one-month delay at most, to get the deal done. Lula said he would inform Mercosur countries. Earlier this week, Lula stated that the deal is in fact already more beneficial for the EU than the Mercosur block and isn’t interested in adding more safeguards to cap EU imports. So it remains to be seen if agreement can be reached.

Over to the monetary policy meetings. The ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2% yesterday, as we had expected. They also upwardly revised their inflation and growth outlook for next year and lowered it somewhat for 2027 to (partially?) correct for the delay of ETS2 from 2027 to 2028.

With respect to growth, Lagarde stressed that the economy has been resilient so far and that trade tensions have eased. At the same time, however, she argued that the international environment is still volatile and that weak external demand will be a drag on growth. Instead, consumption should support the economy and "business investment and substantial govt investments should increasingly underpin the economy." This matches our own view as we’ve laid out in this week’s Eurozone 2026 outlook piece, although we are somewhat less optimistic than the ECB. We project growth to come in at 0.9% next year and 1.2% in 2027, compared to the ECB’s forecast of 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

As for guidance, the ECB reiterated that its data-dependent and will determine its rate action meeting-by-meeting. According to our forecasts this means that the ECB is likely to keep rates on hold in the coming year and will hike twice in 2027, in March and June. For a thorough assessment of yesterday’s announcements and outlook, please see Bas van Geffen’s take here.

Across the Channel, the BoE cut its interest rate with 25bp to 3.75%. The cut was broadly expected and so was the 5-4 vote. As our UK strategist Stefan Koopman noted beforehand, the labour market is cooling, wage growth is slowing, inflation is finally coming down and fiscal policy will tighten further next year. The MPC repeated that the Bank Rate is “likely to continue on a gradual downward path,” but warned that decisions on further easing will become a “closer call.” Bailey voted in favour of the cut and signalled that he sees scope for further easing, but is explicitly looking for progress in inflation expectations and in forward-looking wage indicators. So that's something to watch out for in the months ahead, Stefan Koopman notes. He expects two 25bp cuts in 2026, one in February and one in April, while acknowledging that decisions to move remain highly data-dependent. For more insights please see his post-meeting comment.

Other monetary policy announcements came from the Norges Bank, Riksbank, Banxico and the Bank of Japan. Norges Bank and Riksbank kept their interest rate constant, as expected, while Banxico lowered its overnight policy rate by 25bp to 7% as we had projected. Our Mexico strategist see at least two more 25bp cuts from Banxico in 2026. The BoJ hiked its policy rate to 0.75%, which is low in international comparison, but the highest level in three decades. Its 10-year yield also reached multi-decade highs at 2%.

At the other side of the Atlantic, November’s CPI print in the US supported rate cut bets, stocks and bonds. Both headline and core CPI came in 0.4pp lower than expected at 2.7%y/y and 2.6% y/y, respectively, down from 3% in September. There is no figure published for October due to lacking survey input. But as we understand it, the shutdown has also influenced the November figure due to the measures used to correct for missing October data. This suggests shelter inflation, for example, is underestimated. Nevertheless, investors embraced the soft print, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% for example, although it is still down 0.8% on the week. A cut by April is now over 90% priced in. Recall that our Fed watcher Philip Marey expects a cut in March, June and September next year, as Trump’s influence over the Fed grows.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/19/2025 - 13:00