Individual Economists

Nasdaq Files Application To Add Staking For BlackRock iShares ETH ETF

Zero Hedge -

Nasdaq Files Application To Add Staking For BlackRock iShares ETH ETF

Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

The Nasdaq stock exchange filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday on behalf of BlackRock to add staking to the asset manager’s iShares Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF).

If the application is approved, the fund would give investors exposure to staking rewards accrued from using the underlying Ether as collateral security for Ethereum’s proof-of-stake consensus algorithm.

In May, the SEC released guidance classifying staking rewards earned from validation services on proof-of-stake blockchain networks as earned income rather than securities transactions subject to capital gains tax.

The application to amend the BlackRock iShares Ethereum ETF to include staking rewards. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission

The SEC staking guidance opened the doors for institutional investors to earn yield on their ETH holdings, a major feature for TradFi institutions that must produce income or cash flow for shareholders.

Staked Ether supply hits all-time high, fueled by institutional buying

“Ethereum starts to look like a hybrid between tech equity and digital currency,” Ray Youssef, CEO of finance app NoOnes told Cointelegraph in July. “This appeals to treasury strategists looking beyond passive storage.”

Ethereum treasury companies scooped up 540,000 ETH, valued at $1.6 billion using current market prices, in the last month for their corporate reserves.

In June, the amount of staked ETH hit an all-time high, with 28% of the circulating supply dedicated to the network’s security.

The amount of staked ETH reached a new all-time high of 36,036,981 in July, accounting for over 29% of the circulating supply, according to Dune.

ETH staking metrics. Source: Dune

Rising demand for ETH is also reflected by Strong ETF flows during June and July, following stunted performance earlier this year due to macroeconomic fears and a flight to safety from risk assets.

Capital flows into Ether investment vehicles were positive for 11 out of the last 12 trading days, according to Farside Investors, with over $726 million flowing into the ETFs on Wednesday. 

ETH ETF Flows

Attracting institutional interest is a major priority for the revamped Ethereum Foundation, which backed the creation of Etherealize, a marketing firm tasked with exposing institutional investors to the layer-1 smart contract network.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 14:45

Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-2s

Calculated Risk -

From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar. [July 18th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
June single-family housing starts were weaker than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.9%. [July 18th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on July 18, unchanged from July 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -6.4 percent to -7.0 percent. [July 18th estimate]

Pope Leo Under Fire For 'Vague' Statement On Israel's Bombing Of Gaza Catholic Church

Zero Hedge -

Pope Leo Under Fire For 'Vague' Statement On Israel's Bombing Of Gaza Catholic Church

Via Middle East Eye

Pope Leo is facing growing criticism over his response to an Israeli air strike on the only Catholic church in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, which killed three people and wounded several others, including a pastor. 

The Latin Patriarchate in Jerusalem confirmed that Father Gabriel Romanelli was among the wounded and said the strike caused significant structural damage to the Holy Family Church, where displaced Palestinian civilians had been sheltering.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni condemned the strike and said “the attacks against the civilian population that Israel has been carrying out for months are unacceptable".

In a statement, Pope Leo expressed sorrow and called for peace, but stopped short of naming Israel as the attacker, prompting disappointment from Palestinian Christians and observers around the world.

He wrote: “I am deeply saddened to learn of the loss of life and injury caused by the military attack on the Holy Family Catholic Church in #Gaza. I assure the parish community of my spiritual closeness. I commend the souls of the deceased to the loving mercy of Almighty God, and pray for their families and the injured. I renew my call for an immediate ceasefire. Only dialogue and reconciliation can ensure enduring peace!”

Social media users have demanded a clearer call for accountability. One user described the statement as “a shameful response".

"The Christians of Gaza are not suffering because they’ve failed to commit to 'dialogue and reconciliation'," they said. 

Many social media users drew comparisons between Pope Leo and his predecessor Pope Francis, expressing disappointment in the new pope’s response.

Many recalled how Pope Francis maintained nightly phone calls with Gaza’s Christian community and had grown increasingly vocal in criticising Israel’s military campaign.

One user said: “Pope Francis much missed. This is a cowardly message... omitting even who the perpetrators were." Others accused Pope Leo of failing to "call the church" or "call out the perpetrators".

Meanwhile, Israel's government welcomed the pope's words.

statement from the Prime Minister’s Office read: “We are grateful to Pope Leo for his words of comfort… Israel is investigating the incident.” 

That endorsement prompted fresh backlash online. “This is straight embarrassing,” one user wrote.

Another said: “How dare you. Pope Leo’s words of comfort are for the people you attacked, not for you and your murderous government.”

Early this year, the spokesperson for Gaza's Ministry of Endowments told Anadolu Agency that three churches have been demolished in Gaza since 7 October 2023, while 79 percent of mosques have been destroyed. The overall death toll in Gaza has reached 58,573, with 139,607 more wounded, according to Palestinian health sources.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 14:25

4 Oil Market Myths That Just Won't Die

Zero Hedge -

4 Oil Market Myths That Just Won't Die

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite claims of energy independence, the U.S. remains a net crude oil importer, though it is a net petroleum exporter overall.

  • Oil prices are influenced by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical events, not solely by OPEC or U.S. presidents.

  • While renewables are growing, oil is not expected to be entirely replaced soon due to its essential role in various sectors like transportation and petrochemicals.

They've been debunked. Repeatedly. But like zombies in a horror movie, these oil market myths just won’t stay dead. From campaign slogans to cocktail party arguments, here's what the data really says.

1) The U.S. is Energy Independent 

Energy independence has been a key slogan in the campaigns and presidential terms of President Donald Trump. Make America Great Again and Make the US Energy Independent have often been tied into one pledge or claim.   

Fact: While the U.S. became a net petroleum exporter in 2020 for the first time since records began in 1949, it still imports more than 8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, refined products, biofuels, and hydrocarbon gas liquids. In 2023, about 6.48 million bpd of that was crude oil—roughly 76% of total gross petroleum imports—according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That means the U.S. exports more total petroleum than it imports, but it remains a net importer of crude oil specifically.

The top five source countries of U.S. gross petroleum imports in 2023 were Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Brazil. Canada alone accounted for more than half – 52% -- of all petroleum imports into the United States. Mexico came second with an 11% share and Saudi Arabia third with 5% of all U.S. gross petroleum imports.

The common misconception probably comes from the fact that the U.S. also exports crude oil and other petroleum products—and these have exceeded the imports in the past four years. 

In 2023, the United States exported about 10.15 million bpd of petroleum to 173 countries and 3 U.S. territories, per the EIA data. Crude oil exports of about 4.06 million bpd accounted for 40% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -1.64 million bpd, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 1.64 million bpd in 2023.

U.S. petroleum imports peaked in 2005 and have been declining since then as increased domestic petroleum production and increased petroleum exports have helped to reduce annual total petroleum net imports. 

The U.S. became a net petroleum exporter in 2020, for the first time since in EIA data going back to 1949. 

Although U.S. annual total petroleum exports were greater than total petroleum imports, the United States still imports more crude than it exports, remaining a net crude oil importer.

Despite record U.S. crude oil production, U.S. refineries need heavier crudes than the light crudes from the shale basins to process into fuels. That’s another reason why Canadian crude is the biggest foreign source of crude apart from the proximity and the pipelines shipping it south to the demand and refining hubs in the Midwest and the U.S. Gulf Coast. 

2) OPEC Alone Controls Oil Prices 

Another myth that’s been around since the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s is that OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is solely responsible for international oil prices. 

Not that OPEC hasn’t tried – and succeeded – through the years in boosting or tanking oil prices, but the price of oil is not only a function of supply, much of which the cartel controls. 

The price is also determined by demand. In cases of slowing economies, recessions, weak economies in major oil-consuming emerging markets, or global pandemics, demand tanks. OPEC often reacts to these events by reducing supply, but it cannot directly influence demand. 

Slowing demand – even if it’s only forward concerns about weaker demand not actual data points – depresses oil prices. The most recent case in point is the market rout from early April, when President Trump’s tariff announcement sparked concerns about looming recessions.  

Oil prices are also often influenced by geopolitical events, including wars and conflicts, which are outside of OPEC’s control. For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a surge in oil prices to above $100 per barrel and to spikes in energy prices and the cost of living in many countries. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June also raised oil prices amid fears that the world’s most important crude shipping lane – the Strait of Hormuz – could be blocked or that energy infrastructure in the Middle East could be hit. 

3) The U.S. President Can Control Gasoline Prices in America  

The most recent Middle East conflict was put out after a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites. The ceasefire announced by President Trump eased the upward pressure on oil prices, which returned to pre-war levels. 

The President may have indirectly influenced the price of oil, but not a single U.S. President can control global oil prices, which are the largest price component of U.S. gasoline prices. 

Global and U.S. supply and demand are the key factors behind crude oil prices. The cost of crude oil is the single biggest driver of U.S. retail gasoline prices—it accounts for over 52% of the price of a gallon of retail regular gasoline, according to EIA’s estimates. In 2023, federal and state taxes made up 14.4% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, distribution and marketing costs and profits accounted for 14.3%, and refining costs and profits – for 18.7%. 

Presidents mostly tend to take credit for lower gasoline prices and blame high gasoline prices on previous administrations, Putin, or whomever appears conveniently blameable. That’s to confirm the adage that high gasoline prices are one of the worst fears of a sitting President. 

Most recently, former President Biden and the Democrats blamed Putin for the $5 a gallon gasoline price in 2022. 

President Trump and his allies are currently touting the energy policies for delivering the cheapest Independence Day gas prices in four years. 

In reality, President Trump’s trade and tariff policies have spooked markets and depressed oil prices as traders and speculators continue to be concerned about the global and U.S. economies amid the trade chaos. With lower oil prices, the U.S. shale patch will be struggling to “drill, baby, drill”, as President Trump loves to say. 

4) Oil Will Soon be Replaced by Renewables 

“Oil is dead,” said every headline since 2015. And yet, here we are…

The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to insist on its narrative that a peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon—by the end of the decade. 

Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026 “to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends,” the IEA said in its annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. 

Most industry analysts and oil majors expect demand to plateau at some point in the 2030s, but none see consumption falling off a cliff. 

EVs could dent road transportation fuel demand in China and Europe, but airplanes and ships will still need petroleum-based fuels, in the foreseeable future. 

Solar and wind could replace a large part of fossil fuels in power generation, but they cannot make petrochemicals, your Legos, jeans, jackets, or shampoos.   

Despite endless forecasting, oil keeps adapting to the very trends that were supposed to kill it.

Myths endure because they’re simple. But energy markets aren’t. They’re messy, global, and driven by forces far beyond the reach of soundbites. Whether you're bullish, bearish, or just trying to survive your next gas station fill-up, it's worth knowing what’s fact — and what’s fossilized fiction.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 14:05

Brazil's Ex-President Bolsonaro Ordered To Wear Ankle Monitor: "Meant To Utterly Humiliate Me" For Trump Ties

Zero Hedge -

Brazil's Ex-President Bolsonaro Ordered To Wear Ankle Monitor: "Meant To Utterly Humiliate Me" For Trump Ties

The man called among many "The Brazilian Donald Trump" or also the "Trump of the Tropics" is continuing to endure a drawn-out legal saga, to which he has newly responded, "This is meant to utterly humiliate me." The other side alleges foreign meddling and inviting Trump's interference in national affairs, especially vital trade.

Federal police confirmed Friday they executed a raid and search on the residence and offices of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, with a court ordering him to now wear an ankle monitor over fears he might attempt to flee the country.

Via AFP

The search warrants were authorized by Brazil’s Supreme Court, citing the prosecutor general’s warning of a "concrete" risk that Bolsonaro could depart Brazil while facing trial for allegedly trying to overturn President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 2023 election win.

The court's ruling requires Bolsonaro to also avoid using social media, cease any communication with foreign officials, and he is prohibited from entering embassies or consulates within Brazil.

The latest concerns and accusations get wilder, as the Supreme Court further revealed that police believe Bolsonaro could be collaborating with his son, federal lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, in lobbying efforts in Washington toward trying to persuade President Donald Trump’s administration to sanction Brazil.

These claims follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports unless Bolsonaro received legal protections. This has indeed appeared to put Bolsonaro directly in the middle of the back-and-forth threats in a very public way...

Is the ankle monitor the state's revenge for this video thanking Trump?

Brazil's ruling authorities only see in this more evidence of attempted 'foreign influence' and external political meddling facilitated by the ex-president. As expected President Lula has hit back hard in his latest statement:

Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva accused the US on Thursday of “unacceptable blackmail” over the proposed tariff, the highest “reciprocal tariff” that Trump has proposed in his current round of trade measures.

The leftwing leader used a televised address to the nation to strike a combative stance against the levy, which would hit Brazil's exports of products such as crude oil, orange juice, beef, coffee and airplanes. Lula also said that attempting to interfere in his country’s justice system was a “grave attack on national sovereignty”, while dismissing as “false” US allegations of unfair trade practices by Brazil. 

Bolsonaro’s legal team has slammed the ankle monitor and other new measures as "extreme" and expressed "shock and indignation," noting that he has all the while consistently and willingly obeyed all judicial orders.

His son, Eduardo Bolsonaro responded in an online statement asserting the legal crackdown is motivated by revenge for a video his father posted thanking Trump for his support.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 13:45

Trump Eyes Executive Order To Open Up Retirement Funds To Crypto; Report

Zero Hedge -

Trump Eyes Executive Order To Open Up Retirement Funds To Crypto; Report

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to sign an executive order that could allow American 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets outside of stocks and bonds, such as cryptocurrencies. 

The executive order could be signed sometime this week, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing three people who have been briefed on the plans. 

The new 401(k) investment options could run across a broad spectrum of assets, including digital assets, metals and funds focused on infrastructure deals, corporate takeovers and private loans. 

The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the best path forward for 401(k) plans to start investing in crypto, and investigate any remaining obstacles to making it a reality, according to the Financial Times. 

Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq in annual returns for five out of the last six years. Source: Curvo

Trump has the final say on whether it’s official 

However, in a statement to Cointelegraph, White House spokesman Kush Desai said nothing should be deemed as official unless it comes from Trump himself. 

“President Trump is committed to restoring prosperity for everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future,” he said. 

“No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself.” 

In May, the US Labor Department rescinded guidance issued during the Biden administration that limited the inclusion of cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans.

Meanwhile, in April, Cointelegraph reported that financial services company Fidelity, which has $5.9 trillion in assets under management, introduced a new retirement account allowing Americans to invest in crypto.

Standard 401(k) focuses on stocks and bonds 

A 401(k) is a retirement savings plan offered by many US employers that allows employees to save and invest a portion of their paycheck in the funds before taxes are taken out.

Typically, investments focus on mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, stocks and bonds, depending on the plan. The 401(k) market held $8.9 trillion in assets as of Sept. 30, 2024, in more than 715,000 plans. 

At a state level, in March, North Carolina lawmakers already introduced bills in the House and Senate that could see the state’s treasurer allocate up to 5% of various state retirement funds into crypto like Bitcoin.

Other countries are looking at crypto in retirement plans

In November last year, the United Kingdom-based pension specialist Cartwright reported that an “unnamed scheme” had made a 3% allocation of Bitcoin into its pension fund.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund was also considering Bitcoin as a potential diversification tool in March last year. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 12:45

Trump Eyes Executive Order To Open Up Retirement Funds To Crypto; Report

Zero Hedge -

Trump Eyes Executive Order To Open Up Retirement Funds To Crypto; Report

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to sign an executive order that could allow American 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets outside of stocks and bonds, such as cryptocurrencies. 

The executive order could be signed sometime this week, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing three people who have been briefed on the plans. 

The new 401(k) investment options could run across a broad spectrum of assets, including digital assets, metals and funds focused on infrastructure deals, corporate takeovers and private loans. 

The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the best path forward for 401(k) plans to start investing in crypto, and investigate any remaining obstacles to making it a reality, according to the Financial Times. 

Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq in annual returns for five out of the last six years. Source: Curvo

Trump has the final say on whether it’s official 

However, in a statement to Cointelegraph, White House spokesman Kush Desai said nothing should be deemed as official unless it comes from Trump himself. 

“President Trump is committed to restoring prosperity for everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future,” he said. 

“No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself.” 

In May, the US Labor Department rescinded guidance issued during the Biden administration that limited the inclusion of cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans.

Meanwhile, in April, Cointelegraph reported that financial services company Fidelity, which has $5.9 trillion in assets under management, introduced a new retirement account allowing Americans to invest in crypto.

Standard 401(k) focuses on stocks and bonds 

A 401(k) is a retirement savings plan offered by many US employers that allows employees to save and invest a portion of their paycheck in the funds before taxes are taken out.

Typically, investments focus on mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, stocks and bonds, depending on the plan. The 401(k) market held $8.9 trillion in assets as of Sept. 30, 2024, in more than 715,000 plans. 

At a state level, in March, North Carolina lawmakers already introduced bills in the House and Senate that could see the state’s treasurer allocate up to 5% of various state retirement funds into crypto like Bitcoin.

Other countries are looking at crypto in retirement plans

In November last year, the United Kingdom-based pension specialist Cartwright reported that an “unnamed scheme” had made a 3% allocation of Bitcoin into its pension fund.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund was also considering Bitcoin as a potential diversification tool in March last year. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 12:45

Kremlin Blasts 'Hostile' US Talk Of NATO Quickly Seizing Kaliningrad

Zero Hedge -

Kremlin Blasts 'Hostile' US Talk Of NATO Quickly Seizing Kaliningrad

Russia has blasted recent comments by a top US general who boasted about NATO's claimed ability to swiftly capture the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad if the military action is deemed necessary.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that "NATO is an instrument of confrontation, it is a bloc that is hostile towards our country" - in a press briefing. He was responding to prior words of General Christopher Donahue, the US Army Europe and Africa commander, who described provocatively that NATO could seize Kaliningrad "from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do," according to Defense News.

Kaliningrad: Via Insider/The Jamestown Foundation

"This is yet another statement in a series of such hostile, aggressive statements that we now often hear from representatives of the defense departments of European countries," Peskov added.

Gen. Donahue said the Western military alliance has already developed an operational plan to stymie the defensive potential of Russian forces in the Kaliningrad region. This is part of the new “Eastern Flank Deterrence Line," he said.

"We know what we have to develop and the use case that we’re using is you have to [deter] from the ground," the top commander continued.

"The land domain is not becoming less important, it’s becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine."

And that's when he specifically put focus on Kaliningrad, which is surrounded by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east:

For example, Donahue noted, Kaliningrad, Russia, is roughly 47 miles wide and surrounded by NATO on all sides and the Army and its allies now have the capability to “take that down from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do.”

"We’ve already planned that and we’ve already developed it. The mass and momentum problem that Russia poses to us … we’ve developed the capability to make sure that we can stop that mass and momentum problem," Donahue added.

As for other recent issues raised by the West that Peskov responded strongly to in his Friday press briefing, the Putin spokesman said of EU efforts to drive forward the next anti-Moscow sanctions package, "We are against them [unilateral sanctions]. But at the same time, of course, we have already acquired a certain immunity from sanctions. We have adapted to life under sanctions."

"Each new package [of sanctions] adds a negative effect for the countries that join it. This is a double-edged sword," Peskov added. Thus the potential for direct confrontation with the West continues to heat up, with no off-ramp or a promising peace talk scenario anywhere on the horizon.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 12:25

Transparency

Zero Hedge -

Transparency

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, G-20 finance ministers congregated in South Africa, though several delegates were noticeably absent, like Scott Bessent from the US. Bessent, of course, wasn’t playing hooky alone, as other truants included counterparts from Argentina, Australia, and France. That said, Bessent’s empty seat garnered special attention as the United States is not only the world’s largest economy, but is the source of global trade turmoil as Trump issues trade letters left and right.

Given the absence of communique from the G20 (at the time of writing), markets have turned their attention elsewhere, like economic data. Retail sales data out of the US registered an increase in pace from 0.1% m/m to 0.6% m/m, which was accompanied by stable jobless claims. The markets were pretty resistant to this data, closing the day near the opens with some minimal choppiness around the time the data were released. It should be noted that retail sales are published in terms of value, not volume. That means that this print was impacted by the recent pick up in US inflation, but signals some resilience in the American consumer.

In an environment clouded by uncertainty and obfuscation, we can look to none other than US President Trump as a source of transparency. Indeed, yesterday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that “the President has been very transparent about his displeasure with both the policies and the management of the Fed.” While tactful, it may also be the understatement of the century. After the retail sales data release, Trump publicly pushed for rate cuts once again truthing “’Too Late:’ Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!! DJT.” The rates market was unconvinced by Trump’s plea, with investors still positioned for around 1.7 cuts by year-end, the same positioning as before the data were released.

But while rates were unimpressed, equities marked new gains as the S&P 500 continued to climb upwards, setting new all time highs, breaking through $6,300. Meanwhile, USD also appeared to strengthen as the best performing G10 currency on a one-day basis, and maintaining its status as the best performing G10 currency month-to-date.

On the other end of the spectrum, AUD made for a pitiful performance, depreciating 0.63% against USD after the Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June–the highest rate since November 2021. A cut at the August 12 meeting had already been largely priced in by the market, but the recent labor data drove investors to price in around 45 more bp worth of cuts by 2025 year-end.  

Elsewhere, yesterday was CPI day, with releases hot off the press in the Eurozone. Eurozone aggregate CPI inflation final June estimates printed at a steady 2.0% y/y, while prices increased at a rate of 0.3% m/m. As these were final estimates, markets had already priced in these CPI data and neither European rates nor EUR saw much action.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 12:10

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

Calculated Risk -

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in June, down 2.7% from May’s preliminary pace and down 0.3% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a modest YOY increase, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting the higher business day count this June compared to last June.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release June Existing Home sales on Wednesday, July 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.00 million SAAR, down from 4.03 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in June 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

Three Dead In Explosion At Los Angeles Sheriff's Training Facility

Zero Hedge -

Three Dead In Explosion At Los Angeles Sheriff's Training Facility

Details are scant, but what we know so far is that three people are dead following an apparent explosion at a Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department training facility in East Los Angeles.

That large Los Angeles County facility—just east of downtown—was the site of the explosion about an hour ago. Three people have been killed. Now, some critical information we're being led toward—not yet confirmed—but early indications suggest this may have been some sort of accident, possibly involving a training exercise," Fox News reporter Jonathan Hunt said. 

Hunt noted that this particular L.A. facility includes both bomb squad and SWAT training areas.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi described it as a "horrific incident that killed at least three at a law enforcement training facility in Los Angeles," adding, "Our federal agents are at the scene and we are working to learn more." 

No word yet on the explosion source, or whether the incident was an accident or potentially linked to an extremist group.

*Developing... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 11:53

Stephen Colbert's "Late Show" Cancelled By CBS

Zero Hedge -

Stephen Colbert's "Late Show" Cancelled By CBS

There is something inherently dishonest about comedians posing as political commentators.  The trend, launched by Jon Stewart in 1998 when he took over The Daily Show, harnesses comedy to disarm viewers, making them more susceptible to suggestion.  This isn't such a bad thing when comedians tell the truth, but what about when they lie?

Furthermore, figures like Jon Stewart (and Stephen Colbert) exploit their comedian status as a shield against criticism when they're caught spreading misinformation.  They argue that "they're just entertainers, not political analysts" - They only tell jokes and can't be held accountable for biased news and false reporting.  Yet, everything they do seems to serve political ends.  In other words, they can act as propagandists without ever being forced to defend their claims.

Stephen Colbert took over David Letterman's "Late Show" in 2015 and immediately turned it into a far-left ideological bullhorn.  The show is a perfect representation of the inevitable evolution of progressive comedy - Abandoning all humor in the pursuit of political hegemony.

It was famous for its unrelenting vitriol against Donald Trump and conservatives (and for Colbert's terrible election predictions), and spiraled into madness with Colbert's "Vax-Scene" segment - A regular bit in which Colbert attacked critics of the covid mandates and anyone questioning the legitimacy of experimental mRNA shots. The gag culminated in a horrific musical performance promoting mandatory vaccinations. 

It comes as no surprise that Colbert's show was at least partially funded by advertising dollars from Big Pharma corporations including Pfizer. 

Well, it would appear that all that dancing for Big Pharma still wasn't enough to save the Late Show, with Colbert announcing the show's cancellation by CBS.   Colbert is slated to exit next year with no replacement planned.

Ironically, it may have been Colbert's reliance on Big Pharma advertising that led to his show's demise.  The Trump Administration has announced an effort to ban pharmaceutical ads from American television; a move that is expected to financially hobble a number of media productions.  The US and New Zealand are the only two countries in the world that allow direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising on TV.  CBS may be getting ahead of the loss in revenue.

Other theories for the cancellation include falling ratings and dwindling audience numbers, a problem which all late night shows have been faced with in recent years.  Though, Fox News' Gutfeld! continues to do well as the #1 late night show in the country (The media asserts Colber's show is #1, but Gutfeld regularly outperforms the Late Show). This might signal that so many late night shows are failing because they are all run by extreme leftists. 

CNN has their own theory, suggesting that Colbert may be facing a shut down because of his recent criticism of parent company Paramount.  Brian Stelter, who is no stranger to show cancellations, asserts that Colbert's comments on Paramount and their settlement over Trump's lawsuit against "60 Minutes" might have triggered his loss of the time slot.   

Whatever the case, Colbert's exit heralds the end of the progressive late night era of fake news veiled in bad comedy.  One thing is certain, if Colbert was bringing in a large enough viewership and lots of ad money then it's unlikely CBS would have cut him out regardless of his comments against Paramount.  TV executives care about one thing above all else: Profitability.  Political virtue signaling is a luxury they can no longer afford. 

The reality is, no one finds leftist humor funny anymore - the country has moved on.  Get woke, go broke.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 11:20

Bondi, Burgum Visit Alcatraz Amid Plans To Reopen It As Prison

Zero Hedge -

Bondi, Burgum Visit Alcatraz Amid Plans To Reopen It As Prison

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Attorney General Pam Bondi and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visited the former federal prison Alcatraz in California on July 17, following President Donald Trump’s order to reopen the island prison to house the nation’s most dangerous criminals.

Alcatraz, the former prison, in San Francisco, on April 7, 2011. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Alcatraz, located off the coast of San Francisco, served as a federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963 due to high operational costs. Since then, it has been managed by the National Park Service and opened to the public as a tourist site.

Burgum stated on X that they were touring the island prison “to start the work to renovate and reopen the site to house the most dangerous criminals and illegals” in the nation, which will help advance Trump’s efforts to crack down on criminal activity.

During an interview with Fox News at the site, Burgum said that Alcatraz is widely known for its effectiveness in housing criminals.

“This is something that we’re here to take a look at. It’s a federal property. Its original use was a prison. And so part of this would be to test the feasibility about returning it back to its original use,” he said.

Bondi described Alcatraz as a “terrific facility” that could be used to jail violent criminals and illegal immigrants, though she said it needs “a lot of work” to bring the facility back into operation.

“No one has been known to escape from Alcatraz and survive,” she told the news outlet.

Prior to the visit, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed her opposition to the plan to reopen Alcatraz.

Should reason not prevail and Republicans bring this absurdity before the Congress, Democrats will use every parliamentary and budgetary tactic available to stop the lunacy,” Pelosi stated on X.

The visit followed Trump’s announcement in May that he had directed the Bureau of Prisons, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and Homeland Security to reopen “a substantially enlarged and rebuilt Alcatraz, to house America’s most ruthless and violent offenders.”

For too long, America has been plagued by vicious, violent, and repeat Criminal Offenders, the dregs of society, who will never contribute anything other than Misery and Suffering,” he stated on Truth Social.

“When we were a more serious Nation, in times past, we did not hesitate to lock up the most dangerous criminals, and keep them far away from anyone they could harm. That’s the way it’s supposed to be. No longer will we tolerate these Serial Offenders who spread filth, bloodshed, and mayhem on our streets,” the president added.

According to the Bureau of Prisons, an estimated $3 million to $5 million was needed to restore and maintain the prison to keep it open in the 1960s—excluding daily operating costs. The former military prison was known to be practically impossible to escape from because of the strong currents and cold waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Alcatraz has infamously jailed well-known criminals such as gangster Al Capone, George “Machine Gun” Kelly, Alvin Karpis, and Arthur Barker, according to the Bureau of Prisons.

The island prison has now been closed for more than 60 years.

Rachel Acenas and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 11:00

Illegal Immigrant Accused Of Faking ICE Kidnapping To Solicit Donations

Zero Hedge -

Illegal Immigrant Accused Of Faking ICE Kidnapping To Solicit Donations

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An illegal immigrant living in South Los Angeles faces federal charges for allegedly falsely claiming she had been kidnapped by federal immigration agents in a fast food restaurant parking lot, the U.S. Attorney’s Office reported July 17.

The badge of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Hawthorne, Calif., on March 1, 2020. Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

According to federal authorities, Yuriana Julia Pelaez Calderon, 41, faked her own kidnapping, and her family used the made-up story to solicit online donations from the community.

Calderon has been charged with conspiracy and making false statements to federal officers.

She is now in U.S. immigration custody and is expected to make her first appearance in Los Angeles federal court in the next few weeks, according to prosecutors.

Federal prosecutors filed a criminal complaint on July 16 detailing the alleged web of deceit that started last month.

According to the documents, attorney Stephano Medina, representing Calderon’s family, held a press conference on June 30 to announce that Calderon had been kidnapped five days earlier at a Jack in the Box restaurant parking lot in downtown Los Angeles.

Calderon had lived in Los Angeles for 20 years and had three children. Friends and family said at the press conference that two of Calderon’s children have special needs.

Medina said his client, who goes by the name of Juli, was on her way to her janitorial job when she noticed masked men in an unmarked car following her. She pulled into the Jack in the Box parking lot but was followed by the mysterious men, according to her attorney.

She was taken straight from here to the border and pressured to sign self-deportation paperwork,” Medina said during the press conference.

Medina said Calderon was taken at gunpoint to San Ysidro, where she was “presented with voluntary self-deportation paperwork.”

Her attorney then claimed Calderon refused to sign the paperwork and demanded to speak to a judge and a lawyer.

As punishment for not signing the paperwork, Calderon’s attorney said, she was punished and sent to a warehouse in an undisclosed location.

Calderon’s daughter set up a GoFundMe page, requesting $4,500 and stating that her mother “was taken by masked men in an unmarked vehicle ... when she was on her way to work.”

The defendant’s attorney, Medina, works for Movement Legal, a nonprofit organization that provides legal counsel to social movements, according to its website.

Medina could not be reached for comment July 17 and did not return an emailed request by publication time.

U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli, seen here as an Assemblyman on Aug. 31, 2024, called Calderon's alleged actions a "well-orchestrated conspiracy." Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

Several local news stations reported the story, stoking fear in the community, according to federal prosecutors.

Authorities said Calderon’s entire story was fabricated.

Los Angeles-based U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said in a statement that her alleged actions were a well-orchestrated conspiracy and vowed to make sure all people involved in the alleged hoax face “full consequences of their conduct under federal law.”

“Dangerous rhetoric that [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)] agents are ‘kidnapping’ illegal immigrants is being recklessly peddled by politicians and echoed in the media to inflame the public and discredit our courageous federal agents,” Essayli said.

On July 3, federal agents became concerned after confirming that Calderon was not in immigration custody, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Homeland Security Investigations (HIS) began searching for Calderon over the holiday weekend.

On July 5, investigators tracked Calderon down in a shopping plaza parking lot in Bakersfield, officials reported.

“Calderon continued to falsely claim she was taken by masked men and held in custody with others,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office reported.

Video surveillance—including video of Calderon leaving the Jack in the Box parking lot and getting into a nearby sedan—and telephone records allegedly demonstrated Calderon fabricated the story.

Calderon and her family knew that law enforcement was searching for her and feared for her safety, but they did not come forward to authorities, prosecutors said.

Instead, Calderon allegedly created what authorities say were fabricated photos of her “rescue,” made to look as if she was abused while in ICE custody, and planned to hold a press conference on July 6 to increase donations to the family’s GoFundMe donation page, and to get other benefits, according to federal prosecutors.

“Since early July, my office invested valuable time and resources working this alleged kidnapping investigation only to discover that it was a hoax,” said HIS’s Los Angeles Special Agent in Charge Eddy Wang in a statement.

The Transnational Organized Crime Section is prosecuting Calderon’s case.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 10:20

UMich Sentiment Surges Higher As Inflation Expectations Plunge

Zero Hedge -

UMich Sentiment Surges Higher As Inflation Expectations Plunge

Following June's bounce, preliminary July data from UMich's Sentiment survey was expected to continue rebounding... and it did.

The headline sentiment index rose from 60.7 to 61.8 (above the 61.5 exp) with a big bounce in Current Conditions (from 64.8 to 66.8) and a small rise in future expectations from 58.1 to 58.6. All better than expected and all at their highest level since February...

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumers’ expectations over business conditions, labor markets, and even their own incomes continue to be weaker than a year ago,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“That said, the recent two-month lift in sentiment suggests that consumers believe that the risk of the worst-case scenarios they expected in April and May has eased,’’ Hsu said.

The spread between Republican and Democrat sentiment is back at record wides...

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, inflation expectations tumbled from 5.0% to 4.4% (1Y) and from 4.0% to 3.6% (5-10Y)...

Source: Bloomberg

With Democrats and Independents finally realizing that their insane expectations for inflation were just that...

Source: Bloomberg

And the same picture emerges on the longer-term expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

Well, this puts more pressure back on Powell as 'inflation expectations' seem like they are back under control.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 10:10

MiB: Neil Dutta, Economics Chief at Renaissance Macro Research

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. Neil leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. They discuss in initial interest in economic studies and whether we’ll see a recession in 2025.

A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Tim Ferriss, author of five #1 New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestsellers, including The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans. He is also host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast, which has had more than a billion downloads. Ferriss was named to Fast Company‘s “Most Innovative Business People” and one of Fortune‘s “40 under 40.” He is an angel investor/advisor to firms such as Shopify, Twitter, Uber, Alibaba, clear and more than fifty others

 

 

The post MiB: Neil Dutta, Economics Chief at Renaissance Macro Research appeared first on The Big Picture.

Goldman, UBS Encouraged By Burberry's Turnaround Momentum After Earnings Print 

Zero Hedge -

Goldman, UBS Encouraged By Burberry's Turnaround Momentum After Earnings Print 

The global luxury market remains under pressure across all major regions—from Asia to Europe to the U.S.—but one brand may be turning a corner. British trench coat maker Burberry has been undergoing a multi-quarter turnaround, showing early signs of a potential bottoming out. A sustained recovery, however, will depend on consumer sentiment holding up amid ongoing trade disputes and mounting macroeconomic headwinds.

Burberry shares jumped 7% in London after the luxury brand reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales—offering a much-needed sigh of relief for traders and investors who've been buying the dip. The rally follows a brutal multi-year bear market, with shares down as much as 78% from their early 2023 peak of £2,656 to a low of £597 by mid-2024. 

And the retracement begins. 

Q1 FY 2025 was better than expected:

  • Comparable Retail Sales: -1% (better than -3.67% expected)

  • Retail Sales: £433M, down 5.5% YoY (slightly above £431.3M estimate)

  • Retail Revenue at Constant Exchange Rates (CER): -2% (better than -3.44% expected)

"The improvement in our first quarter comparable sales, strength in our core categories, and uptick in brand desirability gives us conviction in the path ahead," CEO Joshua Schulman wrote in a statement. 

CFO Kate Ferry pointed out, "Traffic in the luxury market is challenging everywhere." However, she noted that Burberry's performance in China improved. 

Commenting on Q1 FY 2025, UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz told clients the results "confirmed the solid progress of its turnaround delivering a meaningful sequential improvement in its LFL growth against a tough industry." 

Pusz continued:

All in all, we are really encouraged by this print, which gives us more confidence that BRBY's brand momentum is accelerating. However, potential negative market reaction today (despite likely no changes to consensus at this stage, unless management comments on the call at 9am UKT today indicate otherwise) due to very positive positioning into the print and the somewhat higher buy-side expectations (as per our conversations with investors many were hoping for flat to slightly positive LFL) is on our mind.

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Louise Singlehurst noted, "Whilst the external environment remains challenging and the company is in the early stages of the turnaround, the Autumn 2025 collection is being well received, the cost saving plan is on track (£80m savings by FY26) and that margin improvement is expected this year." 

The broader Goldman Sachs EU Luxury Goods Index (GSXELUXG) shows that the performance of European luxury stocks has largely been stagnant over the last 3.5 years. 

. . .  

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 09:30

Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in June were above expectations (due to volatile multi-family sector) and starts in April and May were revised up.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Starts 2024 vs 2025Total starts were down 0.5% in June compared to June 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.0% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 6.9% YTD and multi-family up 15.7% YTD.
There is much more in the article.

Renter Nation Returns: Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Saves US Housing Market

Zero Hedge -

Renter Nation Returns: Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Saves US Housing Market

Despite homebuilder confidence in the toilet (and Pulte's daily calls alongside Trump for lower rates), US Housing Starts and Permits surprised to the upside in June.

  • Housing Starts jumped 4.6% MoM (+3.5% MoM exp), rebounding from May's 9.7% MoM tumble.

  • Building Permits rose 0.2% MoM (-0.5% MoM exp), also rebounding from May's 2.0% MoM decline.

Source: Bloomberg

Although in context, this lifts the Starts and Permits SAAR just barely off the lowest levels since the COVID lockdowns...

Source: Bloomberg

A surge in Multi-family unit starts and permits saved the month, while single-family home starts and permits were not pretty...

Source: Bloomberg

But, and it's a big but, there is a big housing problem: US home construction pipeline is hopelessly clogged up, with completions crashing to 3 year low as builders prefer to hold off completing current units rather than go to market now, as they expect even higher prices.  

Cartel behavior to limit supply? Or did the deportation of all those illegals leave the country without anyone who knows how to build a house?

The question we have for the government is simple - if housing construction is crashing, why aren't construction jobs?

Will lower Fed Fund rates do anything to lower mortgage rates? Or will the implied curve steepening further crush affordability? Dear Mr. Trump, be careful what you wish for.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/18/2025 - 08:40

Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

Calculated Risk -

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 4.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,263,000, but is 0.5 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,327,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 883,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised May figure of 926,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 414,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,397,000. This is 0.2 percent above the revised May rate of 1,394,000, but is 4.4 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,461,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 866,000; this is 3.7 percent below the revised May figure of 899,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 478,000 in June.
emphasis added
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased sharply month-over-month in June.   Multi-family starts were up 26.6% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased in June and were down 10.0% year-over-year.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in June were above expectations and starts in April and May were revised up.

I'll have more later …

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