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An Open Letter To Bill Maher: It's Inflation, Not The Economy, That's Broken

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

On my run this morning, I was listening to the most recent episode of Real Time with Bill Maher. In the episode, Maher speaks with Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Bill O’Reilly about the election of New York City mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani.

As part of his explanation for why Mamdani was elected, Maher launches into a speech about how the economy isn’t working for many Americans and tacitly admits he doesn’t understand how bifurcated the economy has become:

“I understand why people are angry about the economy, especially in New York…Explain this economy. How some people are eating $36 cheeseburgers and other people are voting for socialism. And I understand why they’re voting for socialism — because they can’t even make ends meet and they’re worried about not eating at all.”

Maher has correctly identified the problem: the gap between the “haves” and “have nots” is getting wider. Elsewhere in the show, as Maher continues to unpack why the economy feels broken, he’s forced to acknowledge that the stock market is at all-time highs. From there, he asks—genuinely confused—why costs are so high and why ordinary people can’t afford basic necessities.

I’ve seen the same with what feels like an endless line of pundits and political commentators who want to discuss the economy but don’t really understand its dynamics. Maher can’t really point to what’s making the economy “bad” under Trump—despite the record stock market—because he doesn’t understand the underlying forces driving the inflation he’s criticizing.

The “health” of the economy has become a moving target for people eager to attack it by any means. One day they’ll judge it by job numbers, the next by the stock market, and on Friday, in Bill Maher’s case, by the cost of consumer goods.

What Maher needs to understand is that the inflation he’s using to condemn the state of the economy stems from a massive, bipartisan failure to confront America’s monetary policy. Both Republicans and Democrats have been negligent in challenging the status quo at the Federal Reserve—whose true mandate seems to be keeping financial asset prices inflated at all costs. As the money supply rises, so does inflation, so widens the inequality gap. And it’s been a bipartisan problem, Bill.

Widening of the inequality gap — the problem Maher is taking exception with — is what happens when the Fed bails out the housing market. It’s what happens when it adds trillions of dollars to its balance sheet to “stimulate” the economy during crises like COVID. And it’s what will happen again during the next sharp deleveraging—when the Fed inevitably steps in to rescue the system once more. As inflation is a tide that causes the Top 10% of personal wealth holders to get richer and increases the cost of goods, the “haves” don’t feel a damn thing, while a larger and larger portion of the “have nots” are brutalized by not being able to afford normal consumer goods.

Here’s what Maher’s problem looks like in chart form:

This is a recurring process that grows more regressive and accelerates in size every time Fed stimulus occurs. This ongoing cycle widens the inequality gap—precisely the issue both political parties claim to care about. The relentless expansion of the money supply drives up consumer prices, while the Fed’s constant bailouts of financial assets—buying corporate bonds and rescuing banks—further enrich the wealthy and deepen inequality.

I summarized this phenomenon in an article I wrote earlier this year, where I wrote that while both parties were guilty of reckless monetary policy, Democrats’ fiscal approach made their hypocrisy worse. I argued that Democrats promoted endless spending and higher taxes under the illusion that the Federal Reserve could print unlimited money without consequence.

I noted that this mindset had driven U.S. debt past $35 trillion and, combined with the Fed’s constant bailouts, had severely widened the wealth gap. Each round of money printing made the rich richer while crushing the lower and middle classes.

Even though he’s a Democrat, I like Bill Maher. I respect him because I’ve seen him put common sense above partisan loyalty and question his own side’s narratives. I’ve watched him think critically about issues and evolve his perspective over time.

I believe Maher has the ability to see clearly why the economy didn’t work under Biden, why it isn’t working for the lower and middle classes under Trump now, and why it won’t work under whoever comes next. The only real question is how quickly things will regress—and that depends on how soon we’re driven back to a point where the Federal Reserve once again feels compelled to intervene and bail out the entire economy.

Not only would I love for Bill to see this clearly, I’d love to see him step outside the box and invite an Austrian economist—someone like Peter Schiff—onto his show to help explain why we’re headed toward one of two inevitable outcomes: either a social revolt sparked by widening inequality, or a sovereign debt crisis that permanently destroys the U.S. dollar.

If anyone knows Bill, please get him this message.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:25

Global Markets Soar As US Government Set To Reopen After Democrats Cave

Last week, around the peak of the repo crisis we said that while the Treasury was soaking up most market liquidity via its Treasury General Account (which had ballooned to over $1TN), any sign of a govt reopening would send risk assets sharply higher (as this liquidity would then flood back into the market), and sure enough, futures are surging this morning as it now appear that the US government shutdown is finally over after Democrats folded on Sunday night and agreed to reopen the govt with no victory in hand, having kept the government shut for almost 40 days, a record, for no reason at all. As of 9:00am S&P 500 futures were up 0.9%, after the index closed just above its 50-day moving average on Friday — sharply bouncing back after a dip below the threshold; Nasdaq 100 futures jump 1.4% on optimism that the government shutdown may end soon, along with easing US-China tensions and Trump’s bid to appeal to cash-strapped Americans with a tariff “dividend.” European and Asian stocks are also sharply higher. Premarket, Mag7 and Semis are the notable outperformers with AMD, AVGO, GOOG, META, MU, NVDA all up at 2% - 3.5% pre-mkt. Cyclicals are also seeing a pre-mkt bid while parts of Defensives are in the red. Bond yields are +3-4bp with USD flat. In commodities, the story is the strength in Ags and Precious Metals with the former seeing +1% move across much of the Ag complex and gold and silver up 2% and 3.3%, respectively, outpacing Base Metals which are also bid up. With the gov’t reopening, the market appear to be shifting its view back to fundamentals which remain strong for earnings and macro, but likely not enough for the Fed to pause/skip in December, which should benefit risk-assets.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Nvidia +3.1%, Tesla +2.1%, Alphabet +2%, Meta Platforms +1.4%, Amazon +1%, Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%).

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying amid risk-on sentiment as lawmakers move closer to a deal to end the longest shutdown in US history.
• Health insurers, including Centene (CNC), are falling as lawmakers move closer to ending the shutdown without securing a health care win.
• Gold stocks such as Newmont (NEM) are outperforming as the precious metal rises for a second day, with a weakening US economy increasing the chance of a rate cut next month and outweighing progress on ending the government shutdown in Washington.
• Celestica Inc. (CLS) shares are up 6% after Citi upgraded the electronic components company to buy from neutral.
• Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB) gains 6% after an Indonesian government official said the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund is set to be involved in a plan to combine GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s parent with Grab.
• Metsera Inc. (MTSR) shares tumble 14% after Novo Nordisk A/S declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight-loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Pfizer Inc. to an end.
• Monday.com (MNDY) sinks 16% after the software company narrowed its full-year revenue forecast. It also reported its third-quarter results.
• Sunrun Inc. shares are up 6% in after Guggenheim upgraded the solar energy company to buy from neutral.
• TreeHouse Foods (THS) soars 20% after European buyout firm Investindustrial has agreed to buy the private-label food manufacturer.

In corporate news, Pfizer agreed to buy Metsera for up to $10 billion, prevailing over Novo Nordisk in a bidding war. Visa and Mastercard are said to be close to a new agreement to settle a two-decade legal spat with merchants. UPS and FedEx have grounded their McDonnell Douglas MD-11 aircraft fleet on Boeing’s recommendation after a crash in Louisville. 

In AI news, TSMC reported slowing growth in monthly revenue, highlighting uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI boom even as industry behemoths including Nvidia chase more chip orders. Robinhood plans to give amateur investors access to private AI companies whose valuations have increased significantly, CEO Vlad Tenev told the FT in an interview.

The risk-on mood spread across markets, lifting oil, metals and crypto. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was on track for its biggest gain since June. US Treasuries fell across the curve, pushing the 10-year yield up four basis points to 4.13%. Gold also advanced on prospects of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Bitcoin continued to move higher after flirting with the key $100k level early last week, while gold and oil rose. 

Monday’s optimistic tone offered relief after a volatile week, when worries over stretched valuations fueled a sharp selloff in the biggest winners of the artificial-intelligence boom. Ending the shutdown would give investors greater clarity on key economic data such as jobs and inflation, helping to lift the fog around the outlook for interest rates.  

The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the government shutdown, with a group of moderate Democrats breaking with their party leaders to support the deal. Assuming the government reopens in the coming weeks and statistics start moving again, Fed officials still face a data fog with information compiled via retroactive surveys and other methods — if the figures are published at all.

“Markets are taking very positively to the news of the potential resolution of the US shutdown,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We were very constructive on the market anyway and we saw last week’s selloff as a little bit of a buying opportunity.”

That said, how soon the shutdown will end remains uncertain. The Senate has yet to schedule a final vote, while the measure must also pass the House before reaching President Donald Trump for his signature. 

“It’s only the opening act in what could still be a drawn-out political drama, but investors are seizing on any sign of progress,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. “They need to understand where the US economy stands, where inflation and jobs are headed and what the Fed should do next.”

As usually happens, we are now about to see a short squeeze, as discretionary and systematic investors cut exposure last week as simple momentum chasing strategies continued to stumble, according to Deutsche Bank strategists, aggregate equity positioning remains modestly overweight. A slowdown in tech and AI would be far more damaging to the US and emerging markets than to other developed regions. Since early 2024, tech and AI’s weight has risen from 39% to 50% in the US.

Elsewhere, Bessent said Trump’s suggestion, in a Sunday social media post, that Americans may receive a tariff “dividend” of at least $2,000 could come via the tax cuts passed in his signature economic policy bill earlier this year. US and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices. 

Third-quarter earnings are just about over, and the conclusion is corporate America is performing very well as earnings rise at the fastest pace in four years. Companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings for the third quarter — about 80% of the index by market cap — have grown the bottom line by 14.6%, effectively doubling what analysts were expecting. Looking ahead, strategists are bullish on the outlook.  Strategists at UBS Group AG expect the S&P 500 to climb to 7,500 next year on the back of solid earnings growth, implying an 11% gain from current levels. Their peers at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, see clear signs of a recovery in corporate profits.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 1.4% as hopes for a deal to end the US government shutdown boost risk sentiment. Diageo shares surge after the company names former Tesco boss Dave Lewis as CEO. The technology and mining sectors lead gains — with ASML up as much as 2.9% — while personal care products shares lag. Technology stocks led gains in Europe, as they did in Asia after Nvidia CEO Huang said he had asked TSMC for more chip supplies as AI demand remained strong. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

• Diageo shares rise as much as 7.9%, the most since November 2020, after the UK distiller named Lewis as CEO.
• Kingspan advances as much as 8% after the construction materials company gave commentary on next year that Morgan Stanley described as supportive. Growth optionality presents upside to medium-term estimates, the analyst says.
• Siemens Energy shares rises as much as 5.5% after Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy, saying the shares continue to look undervalued despite more than doubling since the start of the year. 
• IAG shares rise as much as 6.7%, recovering some post-earnings losses from Friday’s session. 
• Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 3.8% after its withdrawal from a takeover battle for obesity drug developer Metsera prompted relief among some investors that it won’t be spending $10 billion on an unproven asset.
• Camurus shares jump as much as 13%, the most in more than five months, after it reported positive topline results from an early-stage obesity treatment study.
• JTC shares fall as much as 5% after Permira agreed to buy the corporate services firm for £2.3 billion.

Earlier, Asian stocks rose, supported by a rebound in technology shares following a selloff last week on concerns over lofty valuations. Hopes of a possible end to the longest US government shutdown also lifted sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, with Tencent, TSMC and SK Hynix among the top contributors to the advance. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led gains in the region after reports on a potential dividend tax cut and likely increase in domestic equity allocation by a pension fund boosted optimism. The MSCI Asia benchmark has climbed more than 25% in 2025 — on track to outperform the S&P 500 by the widest margin in 16 years. Shares in mainland China reversed earlier losses to close 0.4% higher after the world’s two largest economies suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices. Equities also rose in Hong Kong. Here Are the Most Notable Movers 

• Mercari shares jumped after first-quarter earnings beat analyst expectations on greater cost efficiencies. Omron shares declined after its earnings disappointed analysts.
• China suspends countermeasures for one year against five US units of Hanwha Ocean from Nov. 10, according to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce.
• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia shares surged to the highest level in three months, after an Indonesian government official said the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, is set to be involved in a plan to combine its parent with rival Grab Holdings Ltd.
• Transformers & Rectifiers India shares fall as much as 20%, the most since July 2023, after second-quarter profit and revenue missed analysts’ estimate.
• Subaru reported net income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Nissin Foods cut its operating income guidance for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.
• Trent shares fall as much as 6.5%, most in over four months, after moderation in second-quarter sales growth triggered brokerages to cut their earnings estimates. Citi downgraded its rating on the company to a sell after results published Friday.
• Yangzijiang Financial Holding shares fall as much as 61% in Singapore as they start to trade excluding their entitlement to the maritime investments business being spun off into Yangzijiang Maritime Development.
• Intensifying competition in India’s online grocery delivery space is weighing on the shares of market leader Eternal Ltd. and its listed rival Swiggy Ltd.
• Mercari shares rose as much as 15%, the most since Feb. 7, after the Tokyo-based online marketplace company reported 1Q earnings that beat analyst expectations on greater cost efficiencies.

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback and taking USD/JPY back above 154. The Norwegian krone is among the outperformers, rising 0.5% after CPI surprised to the upside.

In rates, Treasury fall as haven demand wanes, pushing US 10-year yield up 3 bps to 4.13%. German government bonds also edge lower.

hold modest losses in early US trading after gapping lower at the Asia open as signs lawmakers may end the government shutdown stoked risk appetite. US yields are 3bp to 4bp higher with curve spreads little changed; 10-year, higher by more than 3bp near 4.125%, is ~2bp cheaper vs bunds and gilts in the sector.  $58 billion 3-year note auction at 1pm New York time has WI yield near 3.60%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.8b.  IG dollar issuance slate empty so far but expected to build ahead of the holiday Tuesday; around $40 billion of supply is projected this week, following a combined $136 billion over the past two weeks.

In commodities, Spot gold climbs $80 to ~$4,080/oz. WTI crude futures add 0.2% to around $60 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 1.5% to around $106,000.

The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (8:30am) and Musalem (9:45am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.4%
• DAX +1.8%
• CAC 40 +1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.13%
• VIX -0.4 points at 18.7
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.71
• euro little changed at $1.1568
• WTI crude +0.8% at $60.24/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A group of Democrats broke with their party and supported a deal to end the longest-ever US government shutdown. The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance the bill, though it has yet to schedule a vote for final passage. BBG
• Democratic lawmakers and liberal grassroots groups erupted Sunday night as moderate Senate Democrats moved to cut a deal with Republicans that would put an end to the government shutdown. Democrats are primarily frustrated that Affordable Care Act tax credits will not be extended. Axios
• More than 10,000 flights were delayed or canceled yesterday as a snow storm in Chicago compounded the effect of a third day of government-mandated restrictions. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told Fox that flights may “slow to a trickle” during Thanksgiving if the shutdown persists. BBG
• Scott Bessent suggested to ABC that Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff “dividend” may be referring to a decrease in taxes, but he hasn’t spoken about it with the president. BBG
• US President Trump called for Senate Republicans to send government money given to health insurance companies and send it directly to the people.
• Boeing spokesperson said they recommended to the three operators of the MD-11 freighter that they suspend flight operations, while UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) spokespersons said they made the decision to immediately ground their MD-11 fleets following the Louisville crash.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said US GDP could be negative in Q4 if the government shutdown drags on.
• US Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to withhold billions in funding for food aid for now. It was separately reported that the Trump admin ordered US states to stop paying full food aid benefits to low-income American families and said that they are "unauthorised".
• China added more than a dozen fentanyl precursors to a list of controlled exports to the US, Mexico and Canada, in an apparent move to implement commitments made in a trade deal reached between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump last month. BBG
• China has suspended retaliatory port fees on US-linked vessels for one year, following Washington’s pause of similar charges under its “Section 301” investigation targeting the Chinese maritime sector. SCMP
• The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends. WSJ
• Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi said on Monday she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country's commitment to fiscal consolidation. She also renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to go slow on interest rate hikes, despite signs that most central bank policymakers would prefer to see a resumption of monetary tightening sooner rather than later. RTRS
• The ECB’s Luis de Guindos said the current level of euro-zone borrowing costs is appropriate but officials must remain cautious. BBG
• Fed survey on Friday noted that policy uncertainty, including trade policy, central bank independence and availability of economic data, was the most frequently cited risk to US financial stability, while AI was added as a top stability concern, and respondents also cited geopolitical risks, inflation, monetary tightening, and higher long-term rates as top salient risks.
• Fed’s Williams (voter) said the gap between rich and poor risks a US downturn and suggested that poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates in December, while he sees a balancing act for the December rate meeting, according to FT.
• NVIDIA CEO said they have very strong demand in Blackwell chips and asked TSMC (2330 TT) for more wafers to meet strong AI demand, while he stated that business is growing strongly and there will be a shortage of different things, as well as noted said Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have scaled up capacity.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR announced the suspension of action in the Section 301 investigation of China's targeting of maritime logistics and shipbuilding sectors for dominance, with the action to be suspended for one year as of 00:01 EST on November 10th, while the USTR said the US will negotiate with China pursuant to Section 301 regarding the issues raised in the investigation.
• FBI Director Patel visited China last week to talk about fentanyl and law enforcement, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it suspended the 2024 ban on approving exports to the US of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials until 27th November 2026.
• China halted special port fees for US vessels for one year and removed sanctions on US-linked units of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) for a year.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China has taken measures to exempt the export of Nexperia chips compliant with civilian use from export controls, and it welcomes the European side to continue to urge the Dutch side to correct ‘wrongful’ practices. Mofcom also said that China hopes the Netherlands will promote the early resolution of the Nexperia semiconductor issue, and that China agreed to a request from the Dutch Economics Ministry to send officials to China for talks.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said they welcome confirmation given by China’s MOFCOM on further simplification of export procedures for Nexperia chips to EU and global clients.
• India and Australia held further talks on boosting trade and economic ties, while they reaffirmed a desire for an “early conclusion” of a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, according to Bloomberg citing a statement by the Indian government after India’s Commerce Minister Goyal met Australian Trade Minister Farrell.
• China Commerce Ministry said it makes adjustments to management catalogues of drug-related precursor chemicals; will require license for export of certain chemicals to the US, China, Canada and Mexico.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher amid the improving US-China trade environment and with hopes of ending the US government shutdown as several Democrats supported Republicans to pass a measure through the procedural vote in a rare Senate session on Sunday. ASX 200 gained with the upside led by the mining and tech sectors, while financials also showed resilience despite  ANZ positing a decline in fiscal 2025 cash profit. Nikkei 225 rallied amid a weaker currency and as participants digested earnings, while it was also reported that Japan's GPIF posted a July-September quarterly investment return of JPY 14.45tln. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp ultimately conformed to the upbeat mood amid the improving US-China trade environment, as both the US and China relaxed trade restrictions on each other, while there was also inflation data over the weekend which printed above forecasts, although factory gate prices remained in deflation.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October 29th-30th meeting noted that one member said the BoJ is expected to keep raising interest rates if the economic and price forecasts materialise, while a member said it is important to check the initial momentum towards next year’s wage talks as firms firm up plans after US tariffs were set at 15%. It was stated that the key to future policy decisions is whether firms maintain positive wage-setting behaviour, while there was the opinion that uncertainty remains over the outlook, but Japan will see conditions align to adjust the policy rate depending on economic and price developments. Furthermore, a member said there is no need to rush, but interest rates must be raised without losing appropriate timing.
• BoJ's Nakagawa said the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while she added the BoJ will make appropriate policy decisions, taking into account that uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains high.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government must restore market trust in Japan's finances, but boosting investment is also needed to strengthen economic growth, while she is not ruling out a sales tax cut as an option in the future, although the immediate priority is to compile a package of steps to cushion the blow from rising cost of living.
• China’s National Radio and Television Administration launched a campaign to address the spread of inappropriate animated videos.
• UK probes whether buses made in China can be turned off from far away after Norway found Yutong vehicles could be ‘stopped or rendered inoperable’ by the Chinese company, according to FT.
• Earthquake of magnitude 6.21 strikes east cost of Honshu in Japan.
• China issues measures on boosting private investment via Xinhua. China to also encourage private capital to invest in railway, nuclear power. Will clean up "unreasonable" access restriction for services sector. China will guide private capital to participate in low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace and other fields in an orderly manner. China to meet reasonable credit demand for private firms.

European bourses (+1.3%) are stronger across the board, with sentiment boosted amidst progress related to the US Government shutdown. Price action saw indices open on a strong footing and continue to rise as the morning progressed. European sectors are almost entirely in the green, with a clear cyclical bias. Tech and Basic Resources leads whilst Optimised Personal Care lags. For Basic Resources specifically, the sector has been lifted by upside across underlying metals prices - upside facilitated by the risk sentiment and better-than-expected Chinese inflation figures over the weekend. US equity futures (ES +1%, NQ +1.4%, RTY +1.2%) are entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ. Overall, sentiment boosted by the shutdown-related progress; on that, eight democrats voted with Republicans to advance a deal which would reopen the government and keep it funded until the end of January. Separately, NVIDIA (+3.5%) benefits from the risk tone and after CEO Huang said that the Co. has very strong demand for Blackwell chips and asked TSMC (2330 TT) for more wafers to meet strong AI demand.

Top European News

• ECB's de Guindos said the ECB firmly believes the level of rates are correct.
• UK faces an increase in young adults leaving the country owing to low salaries, rising tax burden and a lack of affordable housing, according to wealth managers cited by FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly set to increase the rate of dividend tax, according to The Telegraph.
• ECB’s Sleijpen cautioned against signing off too easily on joint European bonds and said they ultimately only lead to higher debt, according to Bloomberg.
• Fitch affirmed Ireland at AA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Latvia at A-; Outlook Stable.

FX

• The DXY trades choppily after a rangebound APAC session, showing a mixed tone against major peers as participants digest upbeat US–China trade headlines and optimism over a potential resolution to the US government shutdown. The latter followed reports that eight Democrats backed the Republican spending bill to advance past a key procedural vote. Looking ahead, the data docket is void of any pertinent releases, so focus will be on speeches from Fed's Daly and Musalem. The DXY currently holds within a tight 99.46–99.74 band, comfortably inside Friday’s broader 99.40–99.87 range.
• EUR/USD trades without clear direction around the 1.1550 mark amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone, while ECB’s Sleijpen warned against rushing into the issuance of joint European bonds, arguing such a move would ultimately burden the bloc with higher debt levels. Regional newsflow was light through the morning, leaving the pair largely at the mercy of broader dollar dynamics. Despite the softer USD backdrop, the euro failed to meaningfully capitalise, with upside momentum likely constrained by sizeable option expiries clustered below and around the 1.1500 handle. EUR/USD currently trades within a 1.1542–1.1583 band.
• USD/JPY climbed at the open as improved sentiment surrounding US–China trade ties and renewed hopes for a US government reopening drove outflows from haven currencies. The JPY stands as the clear laggard among the majors, with moves largely reflecting an unwind of prior risk premia rather than fresh domestic developments. Comments from Japanese PM Takaichi ahead of the European open failed to elicit any notable market reaction. The pair gapped higher from Friday’s 153.41 close, opening at 153.77 before reclaiming the 154 handle. USD/JPY now trades within a 153.40–154.23 range.
• GBP/USD eased slightly overnight from last week’s highs but remained confined to a narrow range around the 1.3150 mark amid a quiet news backdrop. The high-beta currency finds modest support from a softer dollar and improved risk sentiment, though gains are capped as traders exercise caution ahead of the November 26th Budget. The Telegraph reported overnight that UK Chancellor Reeves is preparing to raise the dividend tax rate as part of fiscal tightening efforts. GBP/USD currently trades within a 1.3136–1.3184 range.
• The Antipodeans are the standout gainers amid a broadly constructive risk tone and ongoing USD softness, benefiting from the easing in US–China trade tensions and firmer Chinese inflation data over the weekend. Chinese CPI and PPI figures surprised modestly to the upside, reinforcing optimism around domestic demand stabilisation. AUD outpaced its Kiwi counterpart, aided by strength in gold and copper prices, while NZD’s gains were more measured as AUD/NZD extended its advance beyond the 1.1550 mark.
• China will raise its retail prices of gasoline and diesel from Tuesday, based on recent changes in international oil prices, according to Xinhua.

Fixed Income

• USTs are underperforming today and currently reside at session lows within a 112-15 to 112-23 range. Downside comes after a week of safe haven-related inflows after a string of poor private labour market figures, downbeat UoM sentiment metrics, AI-bubble related fears and ongoing US government shutdown; the latter has recently shown signs of progress, which has boosted risk sentiment today. In terms of details, the US Government shutdown is showing some early signs of progress after eight democrats voted with Republicans to advance a deal which would reopen the government and keep it funded until the end of January. Price action today has only really been one direction, and that’s downwards; overnight saw the USTs open at 112-23 (highest today) and continue to trundle lower to make a fresh trough of 112-15 in early European hours.
• Bunds are weaker today, albeit to a lesser extent than global peers; currently trading off by around 10 ticks in a 128.80 to 128.96. Gapped below 129.00 at the open, and continued to drip lower overnight and into the European open. However, the German paper then caught a slight bid just after the cash open, which took Bunds back a couple of ticks above opening levels, to make a current peak of 129.02. Really not much from a European perspective today, aside from a downbeat EZ Sentix print, which printed below the most pessimist of analyst expectations.
• Gilts are on the back foot, in-fitting global peers but to a lesser magnitude than their US counterparts. Newsflow ultimately solely focused on the looming UK budget at the end of this month; on that, Chancellor Reeves is reportedly set to increase the rate of dividend tax, according to The Telegraph. This follows on from reports via the same press which suggested that Reeves was looking to hike income tax by 2%, whilst simultaneously cutting NI by that same magnitude. Gilts have seemingly been getting accustomed to continued reports of tax-related newsflow, after Reeves provided a slight reprieve to markets are she failed to reiterate her tax-related pledges at a presser in recent weeks.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have bid higher to start the week as it follows the positive sentiment seen stateside as the Senate passes the funding bill. WTI and Brent gradually moved c. USD 0.65/bbl higher throughout the APAC session to peak at USD 60.38/bbl and USD 64.24/bbl, respectively. As the European session got underway, benchmarks briefly extended on gains before sharply reversing lower to a trough of USD 60.01/bbl and 63.85/bbl despite a lack of drivers. On geopolitics, Russia launched over 400 drones and 45 missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• Spot XAU has trended higher throughout APAC trade and into the European session despite the potential end of the US government shutdown, which should act as a headwind for haven assets. XAU drove higher straight from the open at USD 4k/oz and has broken above the highs of the 9-day range at USD 4050/oz. The yellow metal has peaked at USD 4085/oz and is currently trading at session highs.
• Base metals have advanced higher over hopes of the end of the US government shutdown. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to USD 10.75k/t and bid higher throughout the APAC session to a peak of USD 10.83k/t as the European session gets underway. Currently, the red metal is oscillating in a tight c. USD 30/t band.
• Iraq set the December Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at minus USD 0.35/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.95/bbl vs Dated Brent and set OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.35/bbl vs ASCI.
• White House said Hungary received an exemption from US sanctions for using Russian energy for a year.
• ExxonMobil CEO said they will “pace” spending on low-carbon projects due to disappointing customer demand and with government policies failing to provide the right incentives to create viable markets, according to FT.
• Industry group warned that EU climate rules risk energy security and that methane emission regulations due in 2027 will force cargoes to be diverted from Europe, according to FT.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange is to waive transaction fees for some gold contracts from November 11 to the end of 2026.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Daly Speaks on Bloomberg TV
• 9:45 am: Fed’s Musalem on BTV

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel received the body of a deceased soldier from the Red Cross.
• Taliban spokesperson said the ceasefire that has been established has not been violated by them so far, and it will continue to be observed, while he added that Pakistan is not ready to take responsibility for maintaining internal security of their own country, so negotiations didn’t yield a result.
• Turkish President Erdogan said a high-level Turkish delegation will visit Pakistan within a week to discuss Afghanistan ceasefire talks, aiming to conclude the process.
• Syria carried out a nationwide pre-emptive operation targeting Islamic State cells.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin, on US President Trump's remarks about ending the war in Ukraine in the not-too-distant future, said Russia would also like to end the conflict as soon as possible. Russia remains open to resolving the conflict through diplomacy, but the situation is stuck. Foreign Minister Lavrov continues to do his job, ignoring fake news.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched 450 drones and 45 missiles to attack Ukraine’s energy sector and infrastructure.
• Ukrainian drone attack disrupted power and heating supply in Russia’s Voronezh.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Rybne in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region and Russian forces hit energy facilities supporting the operations of Ukraine’s defence industry, while it noted that Ukrainian attempts to unblock surrounded units in the Kupiansk and Pokrovsk areas were repelled.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that he is ready to hold an in-person meeting with US Secretary of State Rubio and that regular contact with the US is important for discussing the Ukrainian issue, but noted that ending the conflict in Ukraine is impossible without eliminating its causes and taking Russian interests into account. Lavrov said work is being undertaken on Russian President Putin’s order to prepare proposals for potential Russian nuclear tests and that Russia is currently awaiting confirmation from the US that the anchorage agreements remain in force, while he stated that the US informed Russia via diplomatic channels that it is considering Putin’s proposal to adhere to the limits set out in nuclear arms control treaty after February 2026.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea’s Defence Minister said North Korea will show more offensive actions and that the US nuclear carrier escalates tension in the Korean peninsula, while he added that US Secretary of Defence Hegseth's visit to the DMZ shows a hostile nature.
• China’s mission to the EU said China lodged a representation with the EU on Taiwan’s Vice President entering the European Parliament.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It looks like white smoke is finally emerging from Capitol Hill as late on Sunday night in the Senate there was a 60-40 procedural vote to advance a bill that would end the shutdown. Just about enough moderate Democrats have broken ranks with party leadership to progress a bill that would fund Agriculture, Veterans Affairs and the operations of Congress for the full-year, even if other agencies would only be funded through to January 30th. It seems to persuade the moderate Democrats to support the bill, a vote has been promised in December in extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that run out at year-end. The timetable from here is slightly less clear but we could get a full vote today or tomorrow assuming no procedural delays.

Probability markets are starting to price in the end game with a 98% expectation that the shutdown will be over by November 30th on Polymarket, a contract high. Interestingly we hit a contract low of 35% around midnight Saturday for a reopening by November 15th (this Saturday). However yesterday this spiked up and is now at 94% as I type. S&P 500 futures are currently +0.71% with the Nasdaq equivalent up +1.23%. 10yr USTs are +3.9bps at just under 4.14%. Asia equity markets are also positive with the KOSPI (+3.13%) leading the way, followed by the Nikkei (+1.28%), with both indexes benefiting primarily from a rebound in technology shares after significant losses last week. The Hang Seng is +1.22% but mainland Chinese markets are flat, perhaps after better inflation numbers over the weekend (see below) may reduce the need for larger stimulus. DAX futures are +1.44% higher as European markets closed at the US lows before the end of the shutdown speculation started to mount late on Friday.   

Once the government reopens, markets will face a surge of delayed data releases. Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that September’s employment report could be among the first to hit the wires, potentially within three business days of reopening. We expect payrolls to rebound sharply, with headline and private payrolls both forecast at +75k, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So we could get this Thursday or Friday.

Expanding upon this week, on the policy front, the Federal Reserve calendar is busy but unlikely to deliver major surprises. Today brings remarks from St. Louis Fed’s Musalem, who has maintained a hawkish tone. Wednesday is the most crowded day, featuring speeches from Williams, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins across conferences on Treasury markets, fintech and community banking. Later in the week, Musalem and Hammack will join fireside chats, while Schmid and Bostic close out Friday with discussions on energy and economic trends. Beyond Capitol Hill and the Fed, investors will monitor the Supreme Court following last week’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. Judging by the tone of questioning, the Court appears sceptical of the Administration’s position, suggesting a likely affirmation of lower court rulings. A decision could potentially come quickly, but history points to a longer timeline— with the average time line around 15 weeks - but it could stretch out to the end of the term in June.

While US politics and data dominate, global developments will also shape sentiment. In Europe, the UK releases third-quarter GDP on Thursday and labour market data on Tuesday, alongside inflation prints in Denmark and Norway (today) and Germany’s ZEW survey (tomorrow). In Asia, China has its monthly economic activity data dump on Friday. Japan will publish the Economy Watchers Survey tomorrow and producer price inflation on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain in focus globally. In the United States, results from Cisco, Walt Disney and Applied Materials will be closely watched. European heavyweights reporting include Siemens, Deutsche Telekom and Enel, while Asia sees Tencent, JD.com, SoftBank and Sony. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the bulk of earnings season is behind us, but these names will still provide important signals on sectoral health and global demand.

Overnight, the minutes from the BOJ’s October meeting indicated that the nine-member board appears more inclined towards a near-term rate hike, aligning with the expectations of numerous market participants and consistent with Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent indications that such a move could occur in the upcoming months.  

Yesterday we discovered that Chinese inflation surprised to the upside in October rising +0.2% mom against expectations of -0.1% mom and a -0.3% mom decline in September. YoY PPI edged a tenth stronger than expected at -2.1%, up a couple of tenths from September. The anti-involution campaign that has been aimed at reducing prices wars across the economy seems to be having some impact but much of this month's increase can be attributed to seasonals, some of it around Golden Week spending. So we'll have to see if it gets repeated next month to see if a trend is in.

Last week, markets turned risk-averse as negative sentiment around technology and some disappointing private jobs data triggered a global equity sell-off. In the United States, the S&P 500 fell by -1.63% over the week, although it managed a modest +0.13% gain on Friday and rebounded from being down -1.32% as Europe went home for the week. The Nasdaq fared worse, dropping -3.04% (-0.21% Friday, but off the -2.13% lows for the day), marking its weakest performance since Liberation Day week.

Treasuries had a volatile but ultimately muted week. The 2-year yield slipped -1.2bps (+0.7bps Friday), while the 10-year rose +2.0bps to 4.10% (+1.4bps Friday). Across Europe, the STOXX 600 declined -1.24% (-0.55% Friday), even as the 10-year Bund yield climbed +3.3bps over the week.

The week could have been worse were it not for a late burst of optimism on Friday afternoon surrounding US government shutdown negotiations. That helped volatility ease, with the VIX falling -0.42pts on Friday to 19.08, though it was still up +1.64pts on the week after trading above 22 earlier in the day. Despite this reprieve, risk assets broadly struggled, led by Big Tech as lofty valuations weighed on sentiment. Palantir dropped -7.94% on Thursday and -11.24% for the week after failing to provide clear visibility for 2026. Concerns spread to the Mag-7 cohort, which fell -3.21% over the week (-0.96% Friday), with Nvidia (-7.08%, +0.04% Friday), Tesla (-5.92%, -3.68% Friday), and Meta (-4.11%, +0.45% Friday) among the laggards. Credit markets also came under pressure, with US IG spreads widening by +4bps and HY by +15bps.

Signs of disruption from the looming US government shutdown dented sentiment for most of the week, while a sparse data calendar offered little relief. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -3.3pts to 50.3, its lowest level in three years, while confidence in government economic policy dropped to the lowest point in the series’ 50-year history. Other data included a weak ISM manufacturing print and higher Challenger layoffs, marking the worst October for job cuts since 2003. These negatives offset a solid ADP employment report and stronger ISM services data earlier in the week. The US-centric risk-off tone undermined the dollar, with the index down -0.20% over the week.

Europe also delivered a heavy data flow with a mixed impact. The Bank of England held rates at 4%, but the vote split was more dovish than expected at 5-4. Our UK economist maintains a call for a 25bps cut in December, followed by quarterly reductions in March and June, taking Bank Rate to 3.25%. Elsewhere, investors digested weaker-than-expected Euro Area retail sales for September, German industrial production, and UK construction PMI. These disappointments contributed to declines in major indices: STOXX 600 (-1.24%, -0.55% Friday), DAX (-1.62%, -0.69% Friday), and CAC 40 (-2.10%, -0.18% Friday). European credit spreads widened too, with IG up +7bps and HY up +9bps. Europe went home near the lows for the day for the US on Friday though.

Finally, Bitcoin’s retreat continued, falling -5.11% over the week despite a +2.73% gain on Friday. Brent crude also slipped -2.21% to $63.63/bbl, though it edged +0.39% higher on Friday as concerns about an emerging oil market surplus resurfaced.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:15

Trump Pardons Rudy Giuliani, Others Involved In Bid To Challenge 2020 Election

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has pardoned a number of prominent figures involved in his effort to challenge the 2020 election outcome, according to U.S. Pardon Attorney Ed Martin on Nov. 9.

A proclamation document shared by Martin on social media named more than 70 individuals, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and attorneys Sidney Powell and John Eastman, all accused of involvement in Trump’s bid to challenge the 2020 election results.

The pardons apply to conduct tied to the individuals’ involvement in activities surrounding the 2020 presidential election, as well as any conduct related to “their efforts to expose voting fraud and vulnerabilities in the 2020 Presidential Election,” according to the document.

“This proclamation ends a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 Presidential Election and continues the process of national reconciliation,” the document states.

The pardon would only cover federal charges brought against those listed. The proclamation also explicitly states that the pardon does not apply to Trump.

Neither Trump nor the White House released a statement regarding the pardons. The proclamation was signed by the president on Nov. 7, according to the document.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

In 2023, Trump was indicted by then-special counsel Jack Smith over allegations that he improperly sought to overturn the 2020 election results. He pleaded not guilty, and the case was ultimately dismissed in November 2024.

After taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, Trump granted pardons and commutations to people convicted of offenses stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

Then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, defeating Trump, the incumbent president. Trump challenged the results in some states, alleging voter fraud.

In June, Trump called for a special counsel to investigate the 2020 election results and once more alleged fraud, after FBI Director Kash Patel disclosed that the Chinese communist regime may have conspired to influence the race.

“The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING. A Special Prosecutor must be appointed. This cannot be allowed to happen again in the United States of America,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

His post came after Patel stated on June 16 that the FBI had located “documents which detail alarming allegations related to the 2020 U.S. election, including allegations of interference by the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:45

Trump To Host Syrian President At White House

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump will host Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House on Nov. 10, in the first visit by a Syrian leader to Washington.

The meeting comes six months after Trump and Sharaa met in Saudi Arabia and days after the United Nations and the United States lifted terrorism-related sanctions on the Syrian leader.

Sharaa took office in December 2024 after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, following a 13-year civil war that ended with a victory by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) means Organization for the Liberation of Syria in Arabic. It began as al-Nusra Front, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, the Islamist terrorist group founded by Osama bin Laden. The group was designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department in 2018, but it was removed from the list this year.

Last December, the United States dropped a $10 million counter-terror bounty against Sharaa, who was previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani. The decision coincided with a U.S. diplomatic visit to Syria on Dec. 20, 2024.

A now-deleted bounty notice against Sharaa notes his role in founding the Nusra Front and leading the group through its reorganization into HTS. The bounty notice further stated that the group had taken part in kidnappings and killings in Syria over the years, including the 2015 slayings of 20 Druze villagers in the Idlib province.

Last week, the U.N. Security Council lifted terror-related sanctions designations on him and Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab.

The U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution, adopted last week, removed Sharaa and Khattab from sanctions targeting members and supporters of terrorist groups ISIS and al-Qaeda.

The resolution also welcomed Syria’s pledges to allow humanitarian access, combat terrorism, and protect human rights.

In June, Trump rescinded unilateral U.S. sanctions on Syria via executive order, saying it was “a chance at greatness” for the Syrian people, but he kept sanctions on Assad and other leaders.

The United States revoked the designation of HTS as a foreign terrorist group in July.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Nov. 4 that the meeting between the president and Sharaa is part of Trump’s efforts to meet “anyone around the world in the pursuit of peace.”

Days before the meeting, Trump said Syria had made “a lot of progress.”

“I think he’s doing a very good job. It’s a tough neighborhood, and he’s a tough guy, but I got along with him very well,” he said.

The leader of Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Sharaa, addresses a crowd at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024. Aref Tammawi/AFP

Trump and Sharaa last met in May in Riyadh, where the U.S. president urged his Syrian counterpart to join the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.

After the meeting, Trump announced he would lift all sanctions on Syria.

The toughest measures, known as the Caesar Sanctions Act, can only be repealed by Congress. The administration has backed their removal before the end of 2025, but delays linked to U.S. budget disputes could slow progress.

Sharaa will “emphasize the importance of lifting economic sanctions, particularly the Caesar Act, to allow for Syria’s economic recovery and investment growth,” Syria’s Ministry of Information said in a Nov. 9 statement.

The Syrian leader is expected to reaffirm his commitment to continuing the fight against terrorism and promoting regional security, the ministry added.

On Nov.9, Sharaa met with the Syrian community in Washington, joined by U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack.

Syria’s state news agency, SANA, said Barrack reaffirmed U.S. support for Syria’s reintegration into the regional and international community.

In September, Sharaa addressed the U.N. General Assembly–the first Syrian president to do so since 1967–calling for full sanctions relief and highlighting Syria’s reconstruction needs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:25

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.5%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.2%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed three-fourths of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 7th, inventory was at 842 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

ICE Has Received More Than 200,000 Job Applications: DHS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has received more than 200,000 job applications, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stated in an X post on Nov. 7.

“Americans are answering their country’s call to serve and help remove murderers, pedophiles, rapists, terrorists, and gang members from our country,” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said.

The ICE “Defend the Homeland” recruitment drive was launched by DHS on July 29. The effort is backed by funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has set aside $170 billion for border security and immigration enforcement initiatives.

ICE was allocated $76.5 billion—almost 10 times the agency’s typical annual budget—in funding, out of which $30 billion is set to go toward hiring 10,000 additional staff members, with the agency aiming to deport 1 million illegal immigrants annually.

ICE is offering a “robust package” of incentives for recruited individuals, including up to $50,000 in signing bonuses, enhanced retirement benefits, and student loan repayment and forgiveness options, according to DHS.

In August, DHS announced that it was removing age limits for ICE recruits. Previously, DHS required applicants to be at least 21 years of age and no more than 40 years old.

ICE is not the only agency under DHS that is reporting a surge in applications.

In a Nov. 7 X post, the Coast Guard (USCG) stated that it has achieved “record-breaking” recruiting results.

More than 5,900 members have enlisted with the USCG, which are the “best recruiting” numbers since 1991, according to the agency. The USCG has achieved 121 percent of its active-duty target goal for fiscal year 2025, it stated.

“Through Force Design 2028 and unprecedented investment, the Coast Guard is leading the military services in recruiting,” the USCG stated.

The Force Design 2028 plan aims to renew the Coast Guard, making it a more “agile, capable, and responsive fighting force,” according to the USCG website.

Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has also received an “overwhelming” 35,000-plus applications since launching its hiring campaign on Sept. 30, according to DHS.

“[This is the] most for any position in agency history,” it stated.

USCIS Director Joseph Edlow said: “USCIS is not wasting time; we are committed to implementing President [Donald] Trump’s priorities. These candidates are not just applying for a job—they are applying to guard our values and defend our homeland.”

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers have voiced concerns about oversight of the administration’s immigration enforcement operations during the federal government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history.

On Nov. 6, a group of Democrats sent a letter to Noem, raising “serious concerns” about the DHS secretary’s decision to furlough agency workers within the Office of Detention Oversight.

This office is responsible for monitoring conditions and treatment provided to individuals in ICE detention facilities, which involves conducting inspections to ensure that these facilities comply with federal detention standards.

“Given the concerns involving the safety of human life, we urge you to immediately reclassify DHS civil servants in charge of oversight as excepted under the Antideficiency Act and reinstate them,” the letter reads.

The surge in ICE recruitment comes at a time when there is an 8,000 percent jump in threats against ICE law enforcement officers, according to DHS.

“From bounties placed on their heads for their murders, threats to their families, stalking, and doxxing online, our officers are experiencing an unprecedented level of violence and threats against them and their families,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

“This violence against law enforcement must end.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:05

U.S. & China Freeze Shipping Probes As Goldman Warns Key Trade Routes Set To "Deteriorate Further"

Enough Democrats caved in overnight to pass a key GOP funding bill as the federal government shutdown reached its record 40th day. There's still significant work ahead to fully reopen the government, but this marks very solid progress. On the international front, progress is also evident, with a new report indicating that the U.S. and China have suspended port fees and reciprocal probes amid easing trade tensions.

Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration paused its probe into China's shipbuilding industry for one year, prompting Beijing to suspend its retaliatory investigation and delay planned port fees on U.S. vessels. Both trade concessions were as expected, following breakthrough trade talks between President Trump and President Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit last month in South Korea.

The U.S. Trade Representative stated that negotiations with China will proceed on the issues raised by the probe. The mutual suspensions relieve pressure on global shipping markets after tit-for-tat moves by both economic superpowers had threatened to snarl maritime trade routes and drive up freight costs if reciprocal port fees had taken effect.

"As long as the suspension remains, the potential risk to upend global shipping remains," said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services.

New data from Goldman analysts led by Jordan Alliger shows continued weakness in China-to-U.S. trade flows, with loaded vessels down for a fourth straight week (-10% WoW, -35% YoY) through October 30.

Alliger noted that China-to-U.S. trade flows will experience a brief improvement in mid-November (+6% YoY) before another steep drop (-30% YoY) by month's end.

"Full ramifications from the recent tariff-related implementations and magnitudes have yet to play out – but the next few weeks could continue to illustrate shipper reactions as a potentially wait-and-see mode after the large pull forward over the summer," the analyst said.

Key highlights from the report:

• China freight flows (week ending Thursday, October 30) showed a sequential downtick in laden vessels from China to the U.S. (-10%), with YoY drop-off continuing at -35%.

• Port Optimizer sequentials indicate a deterioration next week, with a return to positive the following week as TEUs appear to have found a floor of ~90k. Expected sequential imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to be down -5% TEUs (November 14), while early readings suggest a +4% increase two weeks out. YOY trends show +6% and -30% over the next two weeks, reflecting volatility and challenges in timing YoY comparisons.

• Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast were -6% YoY, following last week's -7%. The previously positive growth trends over the summer likely reflected a load/unload lag and freight moving out of warehouses, while recent declines may signal muted import trends after the earlier pull-forward.

• Ocean container rates rose +48% sequentially, possibly due to attempts to push through GRIs ahead of contract season, but remain under heavy pressure YoY (-43%). Some normalization may occur soon following the surge.

• Truckload availability on the West Coast continues to deteriorate during what is typically peak season, now down -30% YoY.

Key chart from the report:

The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions couldn't have come at a better time, given the softening across major maritime shipping routes between Asia and the U.S.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full report in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 07:45

The Significance Of Veterans Day

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

At the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the Armistice (truce) was signed by the Allies and Germany, thus halting the slaughter of the “Great War” or World War I. The official end of the war was declared at the Treaty of Versailles in June 1919. World War I demolished parts of Europe and inflicted massive casualties, yet some predicted that it would be the war to end all wars.

Lingering grievances from this war would partially fuel a more devastating World War II, but for now, peace was at hand. Participating nations began to pick up the pieces and honor those who had fought to strengthen liberty and stability.

Armistice Day (Remembrance Day to some U.S. allies) became an official holiday in 1938 through an act of Congress, which President Franklin Roosevelt endorsed. Following World War II and the Korean War, veterans fought to enlarge the significance of Armistice Day to include all veterans who had made sacrifices while serving their country.

President Dwight Eisenhower and Congress authorized changing Armistice Day to Veterans Day on Nov. 11, 1954, to honor veterans of all the conflicts the United States had entered. Consequently, Veterans Day is more encompassing than Memorial Day, which primarily honors our fallen warriors.

“On that day let us solemnly remember the sacrifices of those who fought so valiantly, on the seas, in the air, and on foreign shores to preserve our heritage of freedom and let us reconsecrate ourselves to the task of protecting an enduring peace so that their efforts shall not have been in vain,” Eisenhower said.

During the Revolutionary War against England, principled colonists signed on to the noble mission of independence and their God-given right to human freedom. From 1861 to 1865, Confederate and Union soldiers fought furiously in an epic Civil War. A Union victory forged greater equality for emancipated slaves and helped in the restoration of a fractured nation.

Countless soldiers fought under brutal conditions in World War I and lost their lives in the trenches of Flanders Fields. In World War II, millions of allies engaged the Axis Powers (Germany, Italy, Japan) across North Africa, Europe, and the Pacific Ocean, and finally prevailed against their atrocities. During Korea’s “forgotten war,” allied forces battled the communists in the bitter cold at historic landmarks such as Chosin Reservoir and Heartbreak Ridge.

Regardless of our convictions regarding the Vietnam War, our troops struggled to keep South Vietnam free from totalitarian rule. Moreover, we ought to honor the valor of Brig. Gen. Bud Day, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Vice Adm. James Stockdale, and other prisoners of war who endured years of torture in the hellish Hoa Lo Prison, known as Hanoi Hilton, yet emerged with their honor intact.

Our military forces also fought the al-Qaeda terrorist group, the ISIS terrorist group, and the Taliban for several years in Afghanistan and Iraq. Currently, some of our air crews, sailors, and soldiers are stationed in the Middle East to help deter a wider conflagration initiated by Iran’s proxies.

Today, Veterans Day is a special day to commemorate all living and deceased veterans who heeded the call of duty and honorably served this great nation. This includes veterans missing in action, our wounded warriors, prisoners of war, and millions of living veterans who have served during peacetime or military conflicts.

“Elections, like presidents, come and go,“ President Ronald Reagan said on Veterans Day 1985. ”And always, our nation remains—due primarily to the courage and sacrifice of America’s veterans who exemplify and defend the ideals that the United States stands for.”

When recruits enter any branch of the armed forces, they are aware that future missions could thrust them into harm’s way. Yet they are willing to fight and die for the cause of human liberty. Who are these men and women? They are motivated yet ordinary individuals who, along with their families, make great sacrifices and endure extraordinary challenges. What higher commitment is there than to place one’s life on the line for humanity?

Our veterans are stationed around the globe providing disaster relief, battling terrorism, deterring aggressors, reassuring our allies, and striving to improve security in volatile regions. On this day and every day, let us be thankful for their service and pray for their safety and return home.

We should also pray that the armed forces’ mental, meritocratic, and physical standards are restored at the Pentagon to boost military capabilities and readiness. Moreover, service personnel should get the platforms and training necessary for mission success. Those suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder and our wounded warriors should receive the best help possible.

Our veterans understand that freedom is an ideal worth defending because there will always be tyrants who strive to subvert liberty, progress, and global security. By honoring our veterans, we demonstrate gratitude for their devotion to human dignity and freedom. Through their selfless service, we might better understand responsible liberty and be inspired to live with a higher purpose to build a more perfect union.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 07:20

Unbanked In A Connected World

Financial exclusion remains high in many parts of the world. In several countries, more than two out of three adults are unbanked, yet the majority own a mobile phone. This contrast between connectivity and financial access highlights both the persistent gaps in global inclusion and the massive opportunity to close them.

Created in partnership with Plasma, this graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross, shows how ownership of financial accounts and mobile phones compares across countries. It’s part of our Money 2.0 series, where we highlight how finance is evolving into its next era.

The Unbanked Gap

In low- and middle-income economies, 84% of adults own a mobile phone, while 75% of people have financial accounts. This gap is much wider in some countries, especially in Africa and the Middle East.

For the most unbanked countries worldwide, here are the percentages of adults who own a financial account and those who own a mobile phone.

Source: World Bank Global Findex Database 2025. Data as of 2024 for adults aged 15 or older. Financial account ownership includes adults who have an account at a bank or financial institution, or who use a mobile money service. A mobile money service includes telecom- and fintech-led platforms that offer financial services via mobile phones and typically operate independently of traditional banks, and generally excludes adults using digital wallets that function primarily as app-based payment tools.

In Niger, a mere 15% of adults have a financial account but more than half of the population owns a phone. The most unbanked countries all show major disparities between phone and account ownership.  

Many adults say they don’t have an account because they don’t have enough money, fees are too high, or the account providers are too far away. How can phones help solve these challenges?

Phones: The Key to Financial Access

In low- and middle-income countries, 42% of adults without a financial account own a smartphone. This means that the hardware to reach people already exists, and opens up significant potential for mobile financial solutions.

Plasma One is a mobile solution that tackles the common reasons people remain unbanked. With quick signup on your phone, you can start saving, spending and earning almost instantly in over 150 countries. You can also send USD₮ (Tether stablecoin) anywhere with no fees whatsoever.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 06:55

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The Dow Is Close to 50,000. How the Heck Did We Get Here So Fast? It took a 103-year slog through market crashes, depression, and crippling inflation to reach that “once-unthinkable milestone,” as The Wall Street Journal called it on March 30, 1999. The milestones that fell at 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000, coming in rapid succession beginning in 2017, were greeted with progressively less fanfare. The significance of the Dow, once the heartbeat of Wall Street, was also questioned. (Barron’s)

• The Degenerate Economy is TOO Crowded and Inflation is a Nightmare: The massive grifting is overwhelming the demand for speculation at least for the moment. Further, the speculative reach for anything ‘prediction markets’ feels like a mistake right now. Is it time to invest in the ‘opposite’ of degeneracy and if so, what even is the opposite? (Howie Town) see also There’s something worse than recession and we’re already in it. Mamdani, Trump are just opposite expressions of the same problem. (DowntownJoshBrown)

• How the Supreme Court Could Save Christmas: Alas, our self-described “Tariff Man” president hasn’t taken the hint. Instead, Trump has septupled(!) the average effective tariff rate (from 2.4 percent in early January to 17.9 percent today), and threatened to jack up rates further. His tariffs are being challenged in court, however. SCOTUS heard oral argument, and the justices sounded very skeptical that Trump has the broad tariffing power he claims. Betting markets placed the odds that Trump’s tariffs survive at a measly 24 percent. (The Bulwark)

• The Astonishing Bull Market Will End One Day. Are You Ready? Big stock gains have always been followed by big losses. Here are tips on how to prepare. (New York Times)

• Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks: Investors’ rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending—but it’s a different story for everyone else. (Wall Street Journal)

• Just What the Doctor Ordered: When Dr. Phil signed off his talk show in 2023, he pivoted to MAGA media. It’s not working so well for him. (Slate)

• Will Paramount Cancel Jon Stewart? The comedian talks about the suppression of political speech under Donald Trump, why social media doesn’t mix well with democracy, and the future of “The Daily Show.” (New Yorker)

• Parents Fell in Love With Alpha School’s Promise. Then They Wanted Out: In Brownsville, Texas, some families found a buzzy new school’s methods—surveillance of kids, software in lieu of teachers—to be an education in and of itself. (Wired)

• Traditional Media Never Took the Christian Right Seriously: A radical religious movement that views strongman leaders, even abusive ones, as essential to carrying out a divine plan for themselves and for America, helped propel him to power, and keep him there. (Talking Points Memo)

• ‘Take On Me’ has been stuck in our heads for 40 years. Here’s how it got there. The full story of how A-ha emerged from the Norwegian tundra with the ultimate ’80s pop song, and its unexpected afterlife. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Brandon Zick, CIO of at Ceres Partners, where he is responsible for all investments, including Ceres Partners flagship farmland fund and Ceres Food & Agriculture private equity strategies. He serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Advisory Council and Small Business, Agriculture & Labor sub-council. Ceres was just purchased by Wisdom Tree Investing.

 

Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have been outperforming stock prices of companies with positive earnings

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Consumer Inflation Expectations Slide Amid Deterioration Job Market, Personal Finances

There was good and bad news in this month's NY Fed survey of consumer expectations.

Starting with the former, expectations for consumer price increases in the year ahead ticked down to 3.2% in October from 3.4% in September - which was the highest since April - while measures for three and five years ahead were unchanged changed at 3%. 

Putting the inflation expectations in context to other forward looking inflation metrics, we can see that the NY Fed is among the lowest predictors of future price growth.

Taking a closer look at the components, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month (the series has moved in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023)...

... while year-ahead commodity price change expectations declined by 0.7 percentage point for gas to 3.5% and by 0.1 percentage point for food to 5.7%. The year-ahead price change expectations increased by 1.2 percentage points for the cost of college education to 8.2%, by 0.1 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.4% (the highest reading since February 2023), and by 0.2 percentage point for rent to 7.2%.

That's the good news; the bad news is that despite the decline in inflation, overall sentiment deteriorated as Americans’ perceptions of the job market worsened in October.

Unemployment expectations rose for a third straight month as consumers assigned an average 43% probability  -  the highest since April  - to the likelihood the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now.

Yet ironically, the NY Fed Survey also showed that the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months dropped by 0.9 percentage point to 14.0%, so once again we have a direct contradiction. 

Tied to that, the survey showed consumers saw a smaller chance in October of finding a new position in the event of job loss. In line with what economists have described as a low-firing, low-hiring job environment, the perceived chances of voluntarily leaving a job fell, while the odds of job loss also declined. 

At the same time, expectations for household finances continued to deteriorate, with more respondents saying their finances were worse off than a year ago and would be worse a year from now. 

Yet perceptions of credit access improved, as the share of households saying it’s harder to get loans fell to the lowest level since 2022.

Finally, a larger percentage of consumers, 13.1% vs 12.6% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months

The data will worsen the growing (political) divide among Fed voters as signs of weakness in the job market pile up even as inflation expectations continue to drop (and ironically confirm that Trump was right to slam Powell for waiting too long to cut rates). Last week, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point, but a number of policymakers have since voiced concerns about extending their easing cycle saying concerns about inflation were greater than employment worries. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 05:45

Stablecoins: The US Dollar's Unexpected Lifeline

Authored by Rowan Parchi via The Mises Institute,

A paradox now sits at the center of global finance: the US government, in trying to stabilize its debt markets, has legitimized the very free-market forces that are eroding its monopoly over money.

In mid-2025, the United States enacted the GENIUS Act, the first comprehensive legal framework for stablecoins — privately issued, fully backed digital dollars that move instantly across open blockchain networks rather than through the regulated banking system. The law gave official legitimacy to an already booming industry, but its deeper consequence reaches far beyond cryptocurrency. It has turned stablecoin issuers into a new and dependable class of buyers of US government debt.

At a time when foreign central banks are cutting their Treasury holdings and America’s fiscal burden is swelling, this flow of private demand has become a genuine lifeline. And therein lies the paradox: by empowering private markets to create and circulate digital dollars backed by US Treasuries, the government has secured short-term relief for its mounting financial pressures — while allowing an ever larger share of the dollar system to evolve beyond its direct control. To keep control in one place it is losing control in another.

A Shrinking Buyer Base and Rising Fiscal Strain

The United States is now running persistent budget deficits — the gap between what the government spends and what it collects — that exceed six percent of GDP. Interest payments on the national debt have become one of the largest single items in the federal budget, rivaling defense spending and Social Security. Every one-percentage-point increase in average borrowing costs adds hundreds of billions of dollars in annual expenses, leaving less room for everything else the government funds.

For decades, foreign central banks such as those of China and Japan helped finance these deficits by buying US Treasuries — the short- and long-term bonds the government issues to raise money. But that era is ending. Both countries have become net sellers of Treasuries, using the proceeds to defend exchange rates and support domestic economies.

When those traditional buyers retreat, the US must find new ones. Without steady demand, Treasury prices fall and yields (interest rates) rise, which increases the government’s borrowing costs and compounds the very debt problem it is trying to solve.

The last-resort option is for the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to buy the debt itself using newly created money — a process known as monetization. But this route carries obvious dangers. Creating money to buy government debt undermines confidence in the dollar, raising the risk of depreciation against other currencies and pushing up prices at home. Inflation is, in effect, the hidden tax of fiscal imbalance.

Avoiding, or at least minimizing, that outcome has become an urgent priority. One unexpected way the US is achieving it is through the rise of stablecoins. By channeling global demand for digital dollars into the purchase of US Treasury bills, stablecoin issuers are helping to fund the government’s deficits, reducing the need for new money printing by the Fed — quietly stabilizing America’s finances while shifting more of the dollar system into private hands.

Stablecoins: Private Digital Dollars Backed by Public Debt

A stablecoin is essentially a digital version of the US dollar — a token that can be held or sent like cryptocurrency but is always worth one dollar. People want them for the same reasons they use dollars: stability, trust, and global acceptance. The difference is in the delivery mechanism. Stablecoins move instantly across borders, settle within seconds, and are available to anyone with a smartphone, even where access to US banking is limited or unreliable. For entrepreneurs in emerging markets, freelancers paid from abroad, or families sending remittances home, they are simply a faster, cheaper, and more open form of the dollar.

Beyond these practical uses, stablecoins also serve as the bridge between traditional money and the wider digital-asset world. They provide the stable, dollar-based liquidity that keeps crypto markets functioning and allow assets such as Bitcoin to act as investments or collateral without needing the legacy banking system.

Unlike traditional bank deposits, which are lent out and only partly backed by cash, stablecoins are fully backed: for every token issued, there is a matching dollar or US Treasury bill (a short-term government bond) held in reserve. This distinction is critical. Fractional-reserve banking allows two parties to believe they own the same money at once — the depositor and the borrower — and that illusion holds only as long as confidence does. When confidence falters, banks face runs and rely on central-bank rescues. Stablecoins avoid that fragility by design: the backing funds are never re-lent, and redemption is immediate and transparent.

When a user sends dollars to a stablecoin company such as Circle (USDC), Tether (USDT), or PayPal USD, the company buys US Treasuries or holds cash of equal value. Those assets generate interest income for the issuer while the token circulates freely online.

When the token is redeemed, the company sells Treasuries to return cash to the user.

The GENIUS Act formalizes this model. It requires issuers to hold reserves in “safe, liquid assets” — cash or short-term Treasuries — verified by independent audits and publicly disclosed. Issuers are also barred from implying any government guarantee or central-bank insurance.

The effect: every dollar of stablecoin demand becomes a new dollar of Treasury demand. The world’s rising appetite for digital dollars now means the largest issuers collectively hold more than $150 billion in US Treasury bills (roughly 2–3 percent of all outstanding short-term Treasuries)— an amount comparable to the holdings of a major foreign creditor. And that figure is growing rapidly. At current interest rates, those holdings generate billions in income for issuers and provide steady, price-insensitive demand for US government debt.

In practice, the world’s thirst for digital dollars is now financing a significant and growing share of America’s deficits — voluntarily, profitably, and without any direction from the Federal Reserve.

Why a US CBDC Is Not Likely

Every major power has explored the idea of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) — a government-issued digital dollar that would sit directly on a Federal Reserve ledger. For policymakers, the appeal is obvious: it offers complete visibility and control over money. A CBDC could allow the state to see every transaction, trace every recipient, freeze or confiscate funds instantly, block disfavored payments, or even make money expire to force people to spend it. Taxation could become automatic; sanctions and subsidies could be applied with code.

To central planners, this looks efficient — a tool for perfect compliance and instant stimulus. To citizens, it would mean the end of cash as a private instrument and the beginning of programmable money whose use depends on permission. Financial privacy, as we have known it, would vanish.

Yet despite that allure of power, a US CBDC remains unlikely — not because the technology is difficult, but because the fiscal logic runs the other way. The federal government now benefits enormously from the private demand for its debt created by stablecoins. A CBDC would not generate that demand. It would simply be another government liability circulating inside the official system, doing nothing to attract external capital. Stablecoins, by contrast, draw in global private savings and recycle them into US Treasuries, turning worldwide demand for digital dollars into a steady source of funding for Washington’s deficits.

Where This All Leads

If stablecoins continue to expand, the architecture of monetary control will inevitably change. For more than a century, the Federal Reserve — America’s central bank — has guided the economy through two main tools:

1. Adjusting the supply of reserves (the base money held by banks) to encourage or restrict lending.

2. Setting interest rates to influence borrowing, spending, and investment.

Both tools rely on one assumption: that most dollars circulate inside the regulated banking system. Stablecoins quietly break that link. Each token represents real assets — Treasuries or cash — but moves on networks that operate outside the Fed’s direct reach.

As this pool of “off-bank” dollars grows, the Fed’s traditional levers lose precision. Creating more reserves at the central bank no longer guarantees more credit when individuals and businesses can hold or move digital dollars independently. Raising interest rates may cool activity in traditional banks but not in the global digital-dollar economy that now runs on its own infrastructure.

This doesn’t erase the Fed’s influence entirely — it still sets the yields on Treasuries, which determine how profitable stablecoins are to issue — but it transforms policy from direct control to indirect coordination with markets. The Fed becomes one actor among many in an open monetary ecosystem it no longer fully commands.

In the longer run, this shift could mark the first step in a broader evolution away from pure fiat money — currency that exists solely by government decree — toward market-based fiat, dollars that remain denominated in US units but circulate and self-regulate through private, competitive institutions.

Bitcoin deepens this evolution. With its fixed supply and independence from any state, it serves as the natural hedge against fiat inflation and mismanagement. Today, it functions mainly as a reserve or collateral asset beneath the stablecoin system, but over time it could grow into a broader store of value — a hard, voluntary anchor for a new digital monetary order.

The deeper this system embeds, the clearer its logic becomes: the more Washington delays fiscal reform, the more Treasuries it must issue — and the more it will rely on global demand for stablecoins to absorb them. Each step increases dependence on market-based money and decreases central control.

That dependence may prove to be a healthy limitation. It forces discipline on a government that has long evaded it and opens the way for an age of monetary independence — where money once again belongs to the market, not the ministry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 05:00

Tory Leader Declares Oil And Gas Emergency In Scotland

Via CityAM,

• Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for an end to Labour’s ban on new oil and gas licenses, warning of severe economic risks to Scotland’s energy sector.

• She urged the government to scrap the green levy and prioritize domestic fossil fuel production to lower household energy costs.

• Labour defended its green energy policy, accusing the Conservatives of clinging to outdated strategies that would deepen Britain’s energy insecurity.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has declared an oil and gas “emergency” in the North East of Scotland as she pushes the Labour government to overturn its ban on new oil and gas licenses. 

Badenoch has pledged to “get Britain drilling again” in a new campaign in partnership with the Scottish Conservatives.

The announcement marks the Conservative leader’s growing focus on oil and gas, splitting from previous party leaders who were more critical of fossil fuels.

Badenoch, who is currently in Aberdeen, has called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to scrap the green levy on energy bills at the Budget later this month. 

The Tory leader has re-emphasised her party’s focus on providing cheap energy for families, claiming that the Government’s renewable energy ambitions are driving up electricity prices.

But the Government insists that investing in green power is “the best way” to bring down energy costs.

Badenoch announced last month that her party would scrap legislation forcing the government to achieve net zero by 2050.

Badenoch said the North East of Scotland, along with the UK, is facing an energy crisis and called on energy secretary Ed Miliband to allow new gas and oil licenses.

She believes this would stimulate economic growth and productivity, and save the livelihoods of oil and gas workers who she says face losing their jobs. 

Badenoch hits out at Labour’s oil and gas policy

Labour promised in its manifesto not to grant new licenses on new oil and gas fields, but energy secretary Ed Miliband is reportedly considering watering down his ban on drilling in the North Sea.

Badenoch said: “By the end of Labour’s first term in office, it’s not inconceivable that Scotland’s oil and gas sector will be at serious risk, with domestic production currently set to half by 2030.

“That would be a shocking indictment of Labour’s energy policy, and a dangerous act of economic self-sabotage.

“If the Labour government fails to act, we could be witness to the end of our domestic energy security as we know it.” 

Starmer in Brazil

Andrew Bowie MP, the shadow secretary of state for Scotland, said: “Labour and the SNP are putting the economic livelihood of Scotland, and the economic security of the UK in serious danger. 

“Only the Conservatives have a clear plan to back our domestic energy industry – putting it front and centre in our plan to deliver a stronger economy.” 

The Tory leader’s comments come as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer travels to the COP30 climate conference in Brazil.

Ahead of the conference, he said that pushing for climate action is a “challenge,” but insisted that he is still committed to cutting emissions.

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Kemi Badenoch is doubling down on the same failed Tory energy policy that caused the worst cost of living crisis in a generation.

“The Conservatives’ anti-growth, anti-jobs, anti-investment position on clean energy would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, leave Britain reliant on insecure, expensive fossil fuels, and lock families into higher bills for generations to come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 05:00

These Are The 15 Longest Rivers In The World

From the heart of early civilization to modern hydroelectric power, the world’s great rivers have long shaped economies and cultures.

Today’s infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, sizes up the 15 longest rivers on Earth, showing how far—and through how many countries—each system flows.

The data for this visualization comes from Encyclopedia Britannica, which lists river lengths in both miles and kilometers.

The Nile vs. the Amazon: A Fluid Rivalry

For decades the Nile, stretching 4,132 miles (6,650 km) from the Ugandan highlands to Egypt’s Mediterranean delta, has worn the crown of “world’s longest river.”

Yet recent Brazilian and Peruvian surveys give the Amazon—as measured from its remote Apurímac headwaters—an even longer reach of up to 4,345 miles.

The discrepancy stems from dense rainforest terrain and seasonal channel changes that make precise mapping difficult.

Regardless of which river tops the list, both dwarf their peers in cultural significance, and ecological diversity.

ℹ️ Related: The Amazon rainforest was named after the river. See how the forest plays a critical role in global food supply.

One-Country Rivers

Five rivers in the top 15 run exclusively within one nation: China’s Yangtze and Huang He, the U.S.’ Mississippi, and Russia’s Lena and Volga.

Confined courses can simplify water-management policy, but they also concentrate environmental risk inside a single jurisdiction.

ℹ️ The Mississippi’s drainage basin includes two Canadian provinces, which means rainwater falling in some Canadian areas eventually makes its way into the Mississippi through tributaries.

Asia Has Half of the World’s Longest Rivers

Asia dominates the leaderboard with seven entries, underscoring the continent’s vast landmass and high mountain sources.

South America contributes two mega-rivers, the Amazon and the Paraná, both critical to regional trade corridors.

Africa’s Nile and Niger highlight the continent’s north-south hydrologic contrasts, while Europe’s sole representative, the Volga, plays an outsized role as Russia’s historic “national highway.”

Notably absent are Australia and Antarctica, whose shorter, intermittent waterways fall far below the 2,000-mile threshold.

ℹ️ Related: Take a look at the entire world through only rivers in these startling maps.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Wettest and Driest Countries on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 04:15

New Footage Shows Capture Of Ukrainians In Strategic Hub, Russia Advances Elsewhere

Via Remix News,

Ukrainians are in an increasingly difficult situation in the city of Pokrovsk.

A recent video shows Russians capturing several Ukrainian drone operators who were stranded in the eastern part of the city. 

The footage also shows the moment when one of the Ukrainian soldiers raises his hands and surrenders. 

There is an ongoing debate surrounding who controls Pokrovsk, a strategic logistics hub for the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian side claims there are only a few Russian units, which its special forces are already working to eliminate, according to Magyar Nemzet. Russia says it has near-total control of the city.

Moscow claims Russian troops are also actively advancing in Kupyansk, according to information from the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

Russian troops are currently advancing on the right bank of the Oskol River, where about 130 buildings remain to be captured. In the western part of Kupyansk, the troops have advanced along three streets and captured 16 buildings. In just 24 hours, they have managed to take control of 25 buildings. 

The Ukrainians are trying to retake the city, but their supply routes are now controlled by the Russians. The Russian Defense Ministry has said that Zelensky “has completely lost touch with reality.”

Meanwhile, Putin has ordered the Russians to mobilize, signing a law on Nov. 4 requiring citizens to be called up for military service throughout the calendar year. 

Active reservists in Russia will now be able to participate in special training, and reservists will also be able to be deployed in occupied territory. Previously, officials in Moscow stated that reservists are only protecting the infrastructure of their own region. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 03:30

Which Countries Drink The Most Wine?

Wine remains one of the world’s most consumed alcoholic beverages, with billions of liters enjoyed globally each year.

Despite shifting drinking habits and growing competition from other beverages, wine consumption continues to thrive—especially across Europe and North America.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, highlights the top wine-consuming countries in 2024, based on data from the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV).

Europe Dominates Global Wine Drinking in 2024

According to the OIV, global wine consumption totaled roughly 21.5 billion liters in 2024, with just 10 countries accounting for more than 70% of that total.

The data table below shows the top countries that drank the most wine in 2024 by billions of liters.

The United States tops the list at 3.33 billion liters, followed by France (2.30 billion), and Italy (2.23 billion).

Germany and the UK round out the top five, with 1.78 billion and 1.26 billion liters respectively.

Seven of the world’s ten biggest wine-drinking nations are in Europe, reflecting the continent’s significant wine production and deep historical ties to viticulture.

Wine Consumption by Countries Outside Europe

Outside of Europe and North America, other significant wine-drinking countries are again relatively large wine producers like Argentina (770 million liters) and Australia (530 million liters), which rank eighth and 11th respectively.

China is also a significant non-European consumer as the 10th largest wine-drinking nation at 550 million liters.

Despite ranking among the top 10, China’s wine consumption fell by 19.3% year-over-year in 2024, continuing the country’s declining consumption since 2019, when it consumed 1.95 billion liters.

China’s decline is largely due to a supply shock hangover from its tariff clash with Australia (China’s largest wine supplier) where tariffs reached up to 218.4% and were lifted in late March of 2024.

To learn more about global consumption of alcoholic beverages, check out this graphic which shows which alcoholic drinks are preferred around the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 02:45

Merz At COP30: Climate Panics, German Industry Declines

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

For the German Chancellor, one summit follows another. After the steel summit, Friedrich Merz now heads to COP30 in Brazil, the gathering of the climate club. There, participants attempt to cover the visible cracks in their construct with the familiar climate panic.

The steel summit at the Federal Chancellery was still echoing in the media when the Chancellor was already on a plane—en route to Belém, Brazil. COP30 is taking place these days under the leadership of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Representatives from over 70 nations have been celebrating this annual pinnacle of the global climate circus since 1995, giving it the veneer of supranational consensus. Of course, they travel by the thousands—by plane, how else—and with maximum emissions.

No one voluntarily skips the annual climate gala. A few tons of CO₂ really don’t matter anymore. After all, as insiders know, the planet is already burning, and the struggle for a habitable Earth is, in essence, already lost.

Indulgence Trade and Business

Yet, the grand figures of the climate industry wink and suggest there might still be hope for Earth. From Ursula von der Leyen to Lisa Neubauer and even the Chinese delegation, it is understood that massive investments in the green art economy might just pull the iron out of the fire.

As in spiritual circles, a little indulgence here, a CO₂ tax hike there, and magically the global temperature falls to acceptable levels—the climate god appeased.

Friedrich Merz undertakes the 9,000-kilometer journey from Berlin to Belém to assure his fellow indulgence merchants of continued German taxpayer support.

Redistributing the Wealth

The club plans to invest €1.3 trillion annually in climate measures for developing and emerging countries. Germany, as one of the supposedly strongest economies, must naturally participate. With the United States leaving the alliance, showing presence is crucial.

Merz had to travel, regardless of domestic issues. Cynically, his speaking slot was exactly three minutes. Three minutes for the envoy of the club’s hardline faithful—almost heretical considering Germany’s financial contributions.

Before the final boat ride on the Amazon, the Chancellor will lecture on industrial transformation and the energy transition—topics few have mastered as thoroughly as Germany’s top representative.

A Sad Comedy

At least in Brazil, Merz can proudly claim that Germany may meet its climate targets. Massive deindustrialization makes this possible. While UN chief António Guterres demanded radical action at the start of the event, warning in his usual panic that the 1.5° target has already been missed, the Chancellor performs his sad comedy.

Around 300,000 industrial jobs have been lost in Germany in recent years due to soaring energy prices and overreaching climate regulation. The country struggles economically and risks becoming a European Rust Belt under the climate timelines dictated by figures like Guterres.

Self-referential events like COP30, which knowingly ignore the economic fallout of hardline climate policies, distort reality, making it hard for the public to connect climate politics with economic decline.

Deep Cracks in the Construct

Since the peak of the climate movement in 2009, when US President Barack Obama legally declared CO₂ the most dangerous of all climate gases, the construct has shown deep cracks.

The Trump administration repealed this rule, and the US will fully exit the climate club on January 1, 2026, delivering a blow to the movement. Massive capital shifts follow: away from green funds, toward sectors that generate real market returns.

In the US, money flows back to nuclear and conventional energy. Renewables must now compete, as in a real market economy. True progress through free markets.

The climate movement still fails to grasp that technological progress toward cleaner, efficient, and sustainable production was driven not by the state but by market forces—materialized through price mechanisms, not socialist central planning.

China and India

The anachronism of Germany’s industrial retreat is stark where new capacity emerges—in India and China. Both ignore the rules of the Europe-dominated climate club.

India barely acknowledges them, while China plays an intelligent, though ethically questionable, game with Western climate zealots. Through a network of government-funded NGOs, Beijing has long helped anchor the European climate regime politically and in the media, while massively scaling export-oriented production like solar panels, following different domestic paths.

This year alone, China will bring 80 GW of new coal capacity online, invest in nuclear, and, where market-viable, in renewables—pragmatically and unideologically, the Chinese way.

The Taxpayer Cash Cow

From the EU perspective, COP30 must be seen for what it is: a media spectacle designed solely to keep the European climate subsidy machine running at full throttle.

The EU Commission plans around €750 billion for climate subsidies from 2028 to 2034, on top of national subsidies and aid. A massive business, with “partners” of the climate movement holding out their hands for European tax funds through development aid and countless climate funds.

Merz himself knows this game is flawed. Before the summit, he repeatedly stressed that climate protection is central, but must be pursued while safeguarding economic competitiveness and technological openness.

Yet, experience from the first half-year of the Merz government shows that the Chancellor will not challenge Brussels’ destructive climate policies. The combustion engine ban remains; the senseless heating law continues, costing German households billions. The mantra: stay the course, with industrial electricity prices and other subsidies, straight into economic decline.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 02:00

The Veteran's Verdict: Our Sacrifices Were Squandered

Authored by Kevin Finn via AmericanThinker.com,

Like many conservatives, I spend a sizable amount of time perusing news and opinion sites. While it’s long been true that “if it bleeds, it leads,” the stories have become much more disturbing of late. People of faith know that we “do not wrestle against flesh and blood,” and that there have always been evil people among us. However, it’s become much more overt since the election of Barry Soetoro, a.k.a. Barack Hussein Obama.

Image created using AI.

Today, we see many examples of Leftists supporting Evil at the expense of Good. Many of our public schools promote degeneracy over virtue and ignorance over intelligence. Even some parents, who we expect would want to protect their children, sometimes support mutilating them over keeping them whole.

It’s been said that if a liberal from the 1960s were brought forward to today, he’d be considered a conservative. And if a liberal from today were transported back to the 1960s, he’d be considered a dangerous lunatic.

No argument there.

Many television shows from the early days of the medium still air today. I sometimes wonder what those characters (if they were real) would say if they could read today’s headlines or listen to the likes of Rachel Maddow. It turns out, however, that we just caught a glimpse of how they might react.

An interview with a 100-year-old WWII veteran from the U.K. named Alec Penstone stirred emotions recently, as he expressed his disillusionment with modern Britain. During his appearance on “Good Morning Britain, Penstone poignantly reflected on his service in the Royal Navy during the D-Day invasion, lamenting that the freedoms for which he and his compatriots fought are no longer evident in his country.

'What we fought for was our freedom, even now [the country] is worse than it was when I fought for it,' says 100-year-old World War II Veteran Alec Penstone. pic.twitter.com/M9HSsS5sIW

— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) November 7, 2025

Similarly, one wonders how King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella would react if they could witness the rising numbers of Muslims in Spain after the Spanish spent so much blood and treasure to expel them during the Reconquista. And what would Thomas Jefferson have to say if, after battling the Barbary Coast pirates, he saw Dearborn, Michigan, and now New York City, bending the knee to Islam (and Socialism/Communism)?

Penstone’s comments struck a chord as he recalled the sacrifices made by countless servicemen. “I can see in my mind’s eye, rows and rows of white stones, of all the hundreds of my friends...for what?” he asked, revealing a deep sense of regret about the direction his country has taken. He harshly criticized the current state of affairs, asserting, “The sacrifice wasn’t worth the result that it is now.” His statement reflects a broader concern among veterans who witness significant changes in societal values and governance.

Penstone’s sentiments resonate amid growing frustrations over issues such as immigration and free speech. Many commentators noted that Britain has faced dramatic cultural shifts, prompting concerns about political correctness and the restrictions on personal liberties. The veteran contrasted the freedoms he fought to protect with what he perceives as an increasingly constrained environment, comparing modern Britain unfavorably to the country he defended.

The backlash against certain expressions, a backlash enforced with hate speech laws in the UK, has contributed to an atmosphere where individuals find their voices being stifled. This ongoing cultural upheaval has led to serious debates about whether the sacrifices made during WWII are being honored or undermined today.

The exchange between Penstone and the show’s anchors highlights a generational divide rooted in how people perceive freedom and the responsibilities that come with it. One of the anchors expressed gratitude for Penstone’s bravery and emphasized the obligation of subsequent generations to uphold the values for which he fought. Yet, Penstone’s dismay suggests a disconnect: despite gratitude, many feel that the essence of freedom and personal responsibility is waning.

The crux of his emotional plea is a stark challenge to contemporary society: Are we living up to the sacrifices of those who came before us? Penstone’s remarks have gone viral, inviting widespread discussion on social media platforms and prompting citizens to critically evaluate their country’s path.

Alec Penstone’s reflections serve as a reminder of the sacrifices made by all our veterans. As he confronts the challenges of modern Britain, his heartfelt words call for a reassessment of values—challenging not only the current populace but also those in power to restore the freedoms that should define and protect Western societies today.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/09/2025 - 23:20

These Are The Most (And Least) Recognized Flags In The World

When you think of the world’s most iconic and recognizable flags, what comes to mind?

This visual, via Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins, shows results from FlagWhiz.com, a game that allows users to guess the correct country that corresponds to a given flag based on four multiple-choice options. Data is based on 511,581 guesses made from players all over the world.

The Most Recognizable Flags

The following flags were identified correctly over 97.9% of the time:

Many of these flags are unique and are from high profile countries, like Germany, Japan, or India.

The U.S. flag was still extremely identifiable, but lagged just a little bit behind these other countries in quiz results. Reasons for this are unclear, but it could be because Liberia, Malaysia, Uruguay, and even Chile have similar patterns with stars and stripes on their flags.

The Least Recognizable Flags

The following flags were identified correctly less than 67% of the time.

Countries here are typically smaller and are located in the Global South, from Africa, Oceania, or the Caribbean.

Some have more complicated designs, which make them harder to identify. Many of these are nations that only recently became independent in the 20th century— and many also tend to use Pan-African colors of red, yellow, and green.

Which flags are registered the most by marine vessels? See the breakdown in this infographic.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/09/2025 - 22:45