The Key To Understanding The Cult Of Globalism's War On The West

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The culture war in the western world is currently hitting a crescendo. At first the media said it was all “conspiracy theory” being amplified by a “fringe minority” of radical right wingers. Then, they admitted the conflict was real but claimed that conservatives were monsters trying to “dismantle democracy”. Today, the culture war has become the dominant issue of our age with the debate echoing through the halls of the White House.

Leftists hoped they could make it all go away by dismissing it. They hoped they could continue with their ideological takeover at their leisure. They failed.  The rebellion in the US is a product of decades of effort by liberty advocates and it is finally bearing fruit.

However, I think many Americans and some Europeans are discovering that movements like progressive wokism (essentially Cultural Marxism) are much more than a mere reaction to the return of conservatives to the cultural space. The fight that’s happening in front of the curtain is only a dim reflection of the fight that’s going on behind the curtain.

Almost every facet of leftist political and social activism is bankrolled by some of the wealthiest organizations and individuals on the planet. In fact, I would argue that without the billions of dollars in global funding provided by NGOs, government entities and corporations, the political left as we know it would not exist and the world would be much quieter.

A prime example is anti-ICE organizations: These groups have access to extensive cash reserves to finance call networks, they pay for hundreds or even thousand of protesters and agitators, they pay for legal representation and bail to get their activist agents out of jail, and they often obtain inside information on ICE operations before those operations occur.

These groups function less like homegrown civil rights efforts and more like clandestine government agencies. And, if you check the tax backgrounds of all of them you will find, without fail, that they’re propped up by NGOs like the Open Society Foundation, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, global corporations like Vangaurd and Blackrock, and government bureaucracies like USAID (before it was shut down).

Nothing about these movements is natural, they are purely astroturf. It might look like chaos, but every time you see leftist mobs on the news trying to interfere with ICE arrests and deportations, what you are watching is a highly organized machine flush with globalist cash working to undermine US sovereignty.

The mass immigration of third worlders is coordinated by globalists. The protests against deportations are funded by globalists. The politicians that promote open border policies and enable the invasion of the west are closely associated with prominent globalists. The war on the west is a globalist war; radical activists are mindless soldiers and paid mercenaries. They are not the source of the conflict; they shield the source.

Unfortunately there are too many conservative commentators out there that REFUSE to accept the reality that the actions of the political left are coordinated by a deeper conspiracy. I don’t know why they deny the existence of this cabal, I can only surmise that the idea of an top-down conspiracy to bring about the downfall of western culture is too frightening for them to ponder.

There is also the problem of motive. There’s plenty of conservatives and patriots with a vague notion of why the globalists do the things they do.  Evil exists, that’s not up for debate.  But beyond the underlying mental factors of psychopathy and delusions of godhood, the issue of relativism is ever present. It is a globalist obsession.

Globalism is rooted in cultural relativism, moral relativism, legal relativism, even biological relativism. Western culture is basically the antithesis of relativism, and thus, it must be destroyed in order for globalism to thrive. Everything else is just a tactic, a strategy to destroy the west while taking none of the blame.

Only the west codifies the idea of inherent liberties into its legal framework. Only the west (specifically the US) places individual citizen rights as equal to or greater than the policies of government. Only the west values free thought over uniformity. Only the west (largely the US) preaches the necessity of popular revolt in the wake of collectivist tyranny.

The problem is, most of the world has no concept of these ideals. They have spent their lives acclimating to cultures where “rights” are also relative – Relative to the whims of socialist and authoritarian regimes.

It therefore makes perfect sense for globalists to fund the importation of millions of foreigners, mostly from the third world, into the west. These are people whose minds are already enslaved by a lifetime of submission to collectivism and oligarchy. The migrants go along with the plan because the incentives are too enticing. Their masters are aiming them at the west and saying:

“Go and pillage, take what you can! We will let you plunder these wealthy places as long as you do as we say after the coffers are looted and the blood in the streets is dry in the sun…”

In other words, the globalists are giving the oppressed third worlders a steam valve, an opportunity to “chimp out” and act on their worst impulses. It is a sad but pervasive observation that the majority of enslaved minds HATE the existence of free people, even if those people live on the other side of the planet.

This doesn’t only apply to hostile migrants, it also applies to the progressives that live next door to us. Look at what happened during the pandemic. Look at how they act when faced with facts that contradict their political beliefs. They snap, they crash out, they go insane. The spit and froth and rage like animals. They revile us and nothing would make them happier than to see us dead. All because we don’t blindly embrace their doctrine.

Wokeness, along with multiculturalism, is a globalist construct adapted as a new world religion and all of its tenets are designed as an attack on western values. We respect meritocracy, so they create DEI and equity.  We promote personal responsibility, so they promote narcissism and self worship.  We revere free markets, so they enable expanding socialism. We respect biological science and the biblical definitions of man and woman, so they create gender fluid ideology. We respect moral objectivity and the reality of good and evil, so they conjure up the philosophy of moral relativism as a license for ubridled degeneracy.

To be sure, there are other cultures that do not embrace wokeness, but they don’t present a legitimate threat to globalism. They don’t have a legacy of free thought, they have no interest in rebellion and they are mostly disarmed so they wouldn’t be able to fight back if they wanted to.

Wokeness was specifically tailored as a weapon against the west; a weapon that targets our belief in liberty and attempts to use it against us. For if an individual has a right to choose their own path, how far does this right extend? Do individuals have the rights and the freedom to congregate into mobs and systematically burn the west down?  Liberals would say “yes”, and if anyone tries to stop them those people are tyrants.

Are we tyrants if we fight back? Are we fascists if we defend out culture and borders from erasure? Are we hypocrites if we ignore the sovereignty of people whose only goal is to eliminate our sovereignty?

My counter-argument to this philosophy is that leftists and globalist have no right to socially engineer the west. They only have the right to leave the west and start their own systems somewhere else. If they hate the west so much, why don’t they relocate instead of staying here, or inviting in millions of immigrants that also have no respect for our heritage?

Because this is not a civic disagreement between citizens with a mutual love of country – This is a war between mortal enemies who share nothing in common. They don’t want to live peacefully in another place where they can experiment with socialism to their heart’s content. They want to conquer and subjugate. Globalism must be global. If any competing systems are allowed to exist they will act as proof that the relativist method is an inferior method.

The key to understanding the globalist war on the west is first to recognize that a conspiracy of “elites” is a hard, irrefutable fact. Second, we must accept that war has been declared on us and this war is one of total conquest. We are not allowed to live separately and peacefully, our very existence is seen as a threat to the establishment. Third, globalists view western culture as antithetical to their future aims. Globalism cannot prevail as long as western ideals exist.

Finally, as noted, most of the world is against us whether they know it or not. Even old allies in Europe are becoming enemies. Import masses of third worlders into America and they don’t become American, America becomes the third world. Import millions of socialists into the US and the US becomes increasingly socialist. This is very simple to understand, but leftists (and some libertarians) refuse to acknowledge the truth.

Not all cultures are equal.  Some are better than others.  It’s fascinating how liberals continue to pretend as if different nations and cultures don’t produce tribes that are contrary to each other. We are not the same and natural coexistence is a myth.  Coexistence of such groups is created through intimidation, extortion and force.  The liberal Utopian ideal of multiculturalism requires oppressive centralization and tyranny.

Globalism is the mechanism by which total and eternal oligarchy is achieved. They use open borders, mass immigration, woke cultism, economic crisis, international conflagration, engineered pandemics, anything you can think of and more to tear their enemies down. We are their enemy. We didn’t choose this fight, they did, and they will continue changing strategies until they find one that works (or until we end their little experiment).

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 23:55

Over 20,000 Pounds Of Cocaine Seized By US Coast Guard

More than 20,000 pounds of cocaine were seized by the crew of USCGC Cutter Munro, the “largest at-sea interdiction in 18+ years,” the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) said in a Dec. 5 post on X.

“Through #OperationPacificViper, @USCG has accelerated counter-narcotics operations across the Eastern Pacific and delivered historic results in the fight against narco-terrorists,” the post stated.

“Our maritime fighting force is leading America’s drug interdiction operations, protecting the Homeland, and keeping deadly drugs out of American communities.”

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a Dec. 5 post on X that 20,000 pounds of cocaine was enough to create over 7.5 million potentially lethal doses of the drug.

Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that Operation Pacific Viper directs U.S. forces to the Eastern Pacific region to counter criminal and cartel organizations, essentially cutting off drug and human smuggling activities before they reach U.S. shores, the DHS said in a statement on Aug. 20.

At the time, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said that “80 percent of illicit drug seizures occur at sea.”

Another major drug seizure this week took place on Dec. 2 when a Coast Guard Station Miami Beach law enforcement boat crew seized roughly 3,715 pounds of cocaine, estimated to be worth $28 million, from a vessel suspected to be used for drug smuggling, the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a Dec. 5 statement.

“Disrupting maritime narcotics smuggling like this demonstrates the power of teamwork in safeguarding our nation and holding criminals accountable,” said Andy Blanco, executive director of CBP Air and Marine Operations Southeast Region.

“Smugglers should be warned that our whole-of-government team is watching, and they will be caught.”

Lt. Matthew Ross, Coast Guard Station Miami Beach commanding officer, said this was the “largest USCG Small boat station cocaine seizure since 1995.”

Crackdown on Drug Trafficking

Under the Trump administration, military activity against alleged drug traffickers has intensified. Strikes against suspected drug trafficking boats began in the sea around Venezuela, and have expanded into the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Colombian coastline.

One of the recent strikes was carried out on Dec. 4 against a drug trafficking boat in the Eastern Pacific. The action was taken after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth ordered a “lethal kinetic strike” on the boat, the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) said in a Dec. 4 post on X.

The boat was traversing international waters and was being operated by a Designated Terrorist Organization, SOUTHCOM said, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean and near Latin America.

“Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was carrying illicit narcotics and transiting along a known narco-trafficking route in the Eastern Pacific. Four male narco-terrorists aboard the vessel were killed,” according to SOUTHCOM.

On Dec. 2, President Donald Trump said that land strikes in Venezuela against drug trafficking groups were under consideration.

“We’re going to start doing those strikes on land too,” Trump said. “We know where they live. We know where the bad ones live, and we’re going to start that very soon.”

Criticism has been raised against the Trump administration’s strikes on suspected drug boats. On Dec. 4, Congress held classified briefings regarding a deadly strike on an alleged drug boat in September in the South Caribbean that killed two people.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the leading Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told reporters that the video he saw during the briefing was “one of the most troubling things” he’s seen while in public service.

“You have two individuals in clear distress without any means of locomotion, with a destroyed vessel, killed by the United States,” Himes said.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who also attended the briefing, said he “didn’t see anything disturbing” about the video.

“What’s disturbing to me is that millions of Americans have died from drugs being run to America by these cartels,” Cotton said.

Meanwhile, drug seizures hit a record in November, according to a Dec. 4 statement from the CBP. Nationwide, 54,947 pounds of drugs were seized last month, up by 33 percent from October.

Methamphetamine seizures totaled 21,935 pounds, up by 118 percent, with cocaine seizures jumping 40 percent to 8,240 pounds.

Authorities seized 1,543 pounds of fentanyl, a 59 percent jump from October and the “highest monthly total since last October,” CBP said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 22:45

AI Illiteracy

Authored by Mark Bauerlein via The Epoch Times,

In the old days, English class meant two things: one, reading Shakespeare, Tennyson et al., and two, learning to write. The classics plus grammar and punctuation—they made English a serious subject respected for its content and skills. Of course, it’s not like that any longer.

The traditional literary canon is ever less central to the field, which now spends lots of time on “media literacy,” critical thinking, “informational texts,” and other topics unrelated to literary history. Those changes have come about from above, we should note, from experts in curriculum and assessment.

As for writing, the changes have been even more dramatic and taken place in just the past few years. Artificial intelligence (AI) has upset everything. It has swept into education so suddenly and profoundly that teachers are scrambling daily to cope with its effects. This time, it’s not the experts who are leading the way—it’s the kids. They aren’t writing anymore; AI does it for them. Some keywords, a few clicks, an adjustment or two, and “Voila!” the paper’s done. What late-teen can resist?

If they’re going to “meet students where they are,” as the ed school saying goes, teachers cannot assign any out-of-class writing tasks and expect students to do the work themselves. The lure is too strong, the process too easy. It’s safer than plagiarism, too, because AI creates a unique script for every student who requests one, not a borrowed script that can be unearthed through a Google search by the teacher using any unusual sentences that pop up in a paper as clues. Also, AI produces such authentic student prose that teachers haven’t the time or energy to scan each submission for subtle signs of AI usage.

The whole practice of English must change—it already is doing so.

No more out-of-class-writing, no extended research papers (AI does research as well as composing sentences), and no more in-class writing such as essay exams using computers. Blue books are back! One teacher told me recently that he plans to give oral exams to each student one-on-one at the end of the semester (his classes are small enough for him to do so). It’s a good idea, because in an oral exam, he can probe the student’s knowledge of specific elements in “The Great Gatsby” and other works on the syllabus, thus verifying that the student actually read the book and not just an AI summary of it.

Unfortunately, however, no amount of AI avoidance on the part of the teacher can replace what has been lost—namely, sustained, independent composition, a youth in a dorm room or the library spending two hours on his own verbalizing ideas, polishing sentences, and smoothing transitions. Those hours are a value in themselves, for writing is developed by practice, not by study. It’s an exercise, not a content. Reading a book on prose style will not make you a good stylist. A skilled wordsmith has spent years building vocabulary, acquiring a feel for sentence length and paragraph structure, and recognizing when to show and when to tell, what diction best suits this and that topic, and where irony and figurative language might be effective. It’s a plodding progress with lots of trial and error. Common errors are persistent (misplaced modifiers, oblique descriptions, too many passive verbs and prepositional phrases, etc.). An attentive coach is needed.

Nobody enjoys it, not the student who stares at the blank page in dismay or who rereads a paragraph he’s just written and knows it’s awful, and not the English teacher who feels the student’s dismay and joins the struggle to squeeze some eloquence out of that disjointed paragraph. I remember many sessions with students in office hours, the two of us going over a rough draft sentence by sentence as I directed her attention to a comma or a “which” or a verb tense and asking, “Is there anything wrong there?” and waited for her to figure it out. I had to be patient. She had to concentrate. Time slowed down. By the finish, she sighed and smiled weakly, while I looked forward to happy hour.

There’s no replacement for this humanistic boot camp, however. Most people can’t learn to write in any other way. If AI saves them from this unpleasant, plodding training, happiness will go up, but competence won’t. The impact will spread far beyond the campus, giving us an AI-dominant culture and a low-literacy society.

We might see in the coming years a curious irony: As AI does more and more of the work of communication, those times in which a more meaningful, unusual, impressive communication is needed—for instance, when a politician strives to deliver a rousing speech at a time of crisis—will make those few individuals who did get strong literary formation appear as rare assets.

Message to parents: Encourage your kids to keep a diary and write the day’s events in it every night.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 22:10

Mapping US Income Inequality By State

The wealth of America’s top 1% sits around $52 trillion today, rising by $4 trillion over the year.

Overall, the top 1% of U.S. earners need to make around $800,000 or more in salary per household.

Meanwhile, about 30% of American households earned less than $50,000 last year, highlighting clear divides in wage distribution across the country.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows income inequality by state, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Spectrum of Income Inequality in America

In 2024, the U.S. Gini coefficient was 0.48, representing a high degree of inequality.

Effectively, a score of one means that a single person would earn all of the income, and 0 would represent perfect equality. Last year, the top 20% of earners pocketed 52.2% of the country’s income according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In contrast, the bottom fifth of earners received just 3.1%.

Yet, income is distributed differently across states. Last year, income inequality was the most severe in Washington, D.C. and New York, each with a 0.52 Gini index score.

State Gini Coefficient 2024 District of Columbia 0.52 New York 0.52 Connecticut 0.50 Louisiana 0.49 California 0.49 Massachusetts 0.48 Illinois 0.48 Florida 0.48 Texas 0.48 North Carolina 0.48 Mississippi 0.48 Pennsylvania 0.47 Tennessee 0.47 Alabama 0.47 Georgia 0.47 Washington 0.47 New Mexico 0.47 Arkansas 0.47 Rhode Island 0.47 New Jersey 0.47 Kentucky 0.47 Oklahoma 0.47 Virginia 0.47 Michigan 0.47 West Virginia 0.47 South Carolina 0.47 Nevada 0.47 Missouri 0.46 Ohio 0.46 Arizona 0.46 Colorado 0.46 Wyoming 0.46 Montana 0.46 North Dakota 0.46 Maine 0.46 Maryland 0.46 Kansas 0.46 Oregon 0.46 Vermont 0.46 Hawaii 0.45 Indiana 0.45 Minnesota 0.45 Delaware 0.45 New Hampshire 0.45 Nebraska 0.45 South Dakota 0.44 Wisconsin 0.44 Alaska 0.44 Iowa 0.44 Idaho 0.43 Utah 0.42

In Washington, D.C. the top 20% of earners made 27 times more than the bottom 20% in 2023 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which is the highest ratio of any state between the top and bottom quintiles.

New York, on the other hand, is home to more billionaires than any other state except for California, creating huge disparities in income. Since 2019, real wage growth among the Big Apple’s top 3% soared 34.5%, more than triple all other income tiers.

Falling near the U.S. average are Florida, Texas, and Massachusetts, providing a more representative picture of income inequality in the country.

In comparison, Utah ranks lowest overall, a position it has regularly held for some time. Utah has the sixth-highest employment share (65.4%) in the country, keeping average family incomes more even.

Along with this, Utah has one of the best social mobility index scores nationwide, likely influenced by narrower wage disparities.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on wealth inequality by country in 2025.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 21:35

America's New National Security Strategy: A Surprise Departure On China Policy

Authored by Arnaud Bertrand via The Ron Paul Institute

In a big development, the final US National Security Strategy was just published and the refocus on the Western Hemisphere (i.e. the Americas) is confirmed. The document clearly establishes this as the US's number one priority, saying that the US will now "assert and enforce a 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine."

In terms of military presence, they write that this means "a readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere, and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined in recent decades or years."

On China, a couple of points...

The most striking aspect to me is that China is NOT anymore defined as "the" primary threat, "most consequential challenge," "pacing threat," or similar formulations used in previous such documents.

It’s clearly downgraded as a priority. Based on the document’s structure and emphasis, the top U.S. priorities could be characterized as:

1) Homeland security and borders (migration, cartels, etc.)

2) Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine restoration)

3) Economic security (reindustrialization, supply chains)

4) China and Indo-Pacific

To be clear they don’t define China as an ally or a partner in any shape or form but primarily as:

1) an economic competitor;

2) a source of supply chain vulnerabilities (but also a trading partner); and

3) a player who regional dominance should be "ideally" denied because it "has major implications for the U.S. economy."

Interestingly, I believe for the first time ever, they mention the possibility of being overmatched militarily by China. They write that "deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority" - but "ideally" clearly means that it’s ideal, but not necessarily a given.

Via Anadolu Agency

The fact that they call deterring conflict over Taiwan merely "a priority" also suggests, by definition, that it’s no more a top strategic priority, or a vital interest. On Taiwan they also clearly imply that if the US's "First Island Chain allies" don't "step up and spend – and more importantly do – much more for collective defense," then there might be "a balance of forces so unfavorable to us as to make defending that island impossible."

They still maintain that "the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait" but, clearly, there’s a widening gap between what the US says it opposes and what it’s actually willing to do about it.

Interestingly as well, contrary to previous such document, there is zero ideological dimension in the document when it comes to China. No "democracy vs. autocracy" framing, no "rules-based international order" to defend, no values-based crusade. China is treated as a practical issue to be managed, not an ideological adversary to be defeated.

In fact the document explicitly mentions, I think for the first time ever as well, that US policy is now:

• "not grounded in traditional, political ideology"

• that they "seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories."

• and that they seek “good relations with nations whose governing systems differ from ours."

...Which is quite a stunning departure from the rhetoric of the past few decades. We all knew this but it’s now amply clear that the era of missionary liberal internationalism in US foreign policy is dead and buried.

The competition with China is primarily described in economic terms, explicitly so: they write the competition is about "winning the economic future" and that economics are "the ultimate stakes."

Notably, they admit that the tariffs approach "that began in 2017" when it comes to China essentially failed because "China adapted" and has "strengthened its hold on supply chains."

The new strategy, as described in the document, is to build an economic coalition against China that can exert more leverage than the US economy alone – a tacit admission that America just isn't powerful enough on its own anymore.

The contradiction is however obvious: it is unclear how you build an economic coalition against China while simultaneously waging trade wars against your coalition partners, demanding they shoulder more of their own defense, and treating every allied relationship as a deal to be renegotiated in America's favor.

At some point these "allies" will be asking a very obvious question: why sacrifice our economic interests to prop up an America that can no longer compete on its own – and that offers us less and less in return? The document can be found here.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 21:00

China Successfully Operates World's First Thorium Molten Salt Reactor

By Haley Zaremba of OilPrice.com

An experimental Chinese nuclear plant reportedly just crossed a historic threshold, successfully operating the world’s first thorium-based molten salt reactor (TMSR). The Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics has broken a major scientific barrier by successfully converting thorium to uranium in a historic first.

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reports that the breakthrough, which took place at an experimental reactor out in the Gobi Desert, is “poised to reshape the future of clean sustainable nuclear energy.” 

The process works by using a “precise sequence of nuclear reactions” in which naturally occurring thorium-232 absorbs a neutron, becoming thorium-233. Through a decay process, that isotope breaks down into protactinium-233 and then finally into uranium-233, a potent form of nuclear fuel that can sustain chain reactions for nuclear fission.

While this breakthrough was just publicized this month by a report by Science and Technology Daily, the TMSR has apparently been operational for years. Li Qingnuan, Communist Party secretary and deputy director at the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, told the outlet that “since achieving first criticality on October 11, 2023, the thorium molten salt reactor has been steadily generating heat through nuclear fission”.

If the reports are true, this breakthrough would signal an incredible leap forward in a nuclear technology race that China is already winning handily. Although the United States is still the world’s biggest producer of nuclear energy, that status won’t last much longer. In the same time period that the United States built the overdue and over-budget Plant Vogtle, China built 13 reactors of similar scale, and has 33 more on the way. Beijing is also making major forays into the nuclear sectors of emerging economies, with particularly concerted efforts in Africa.

“The Chinese are moving very, very fast,” Mark Hibbs, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and expert on the Chinese nuclear sector, told the New York Times. “They are very keen to show the world that their program is unstoppable.”

But while China has invested huge sums of money and manpower into becoming a global nuclear energy innovator and superpower, the nation lacks sufficient uranium to power its lofty goals. While nuclear power production growth is dominated by China, uranium supply chains are dominated by Russia, which is home to nearly half (approximately 44 percent) of all global uranium enrichment capacity. 

China has been buying up more and more of Russia’s uranium, but reliance on exports is both risky and antithetical to China’s ethos of domestic energy independence and international energy dominance. Russia’s outsized presence in the nuclear fuel supply chain has resulted in some degree of risk and market volatility, as the Kremlin has shown that it is not afraid to use enriched uranium for political leverage.

“The nuclear energy supply chain sits atop the clean technology risk pyramid,” warned a recent article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Beyond standard supply chain considerations, nuclear exports are subject to a suite of safety and security concerns, and overreliance on a single technology or fuel provider can create significant dependencies given the limited number of suppliers and distinct intellectual property (IP).”

By sidestepping the uranium supply chain issue by using thorium instead, China is leaping over a critical hurdle and straight over the finish line for global nuclear power sector domination. Thorium is much more accessible and abundant than uranium, and could theoretically solve all of China’s nuclear fuel problems. According to the South China Morning Post, just one mining site in Inner Mongolia “ is estimated to hold enough of the element to power China entirely for more than 1,000 years.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 19:50

China & Japan Narrowly Avoid Live Fire Conflict After F-15 Radar Lock Incident

A major and very dangerous incident occurred over waters off Japan's southern islands on Saturday, but has only been publicly revealed Sunday. Chinese PLA military aircraft locked radar on Japanese fighter jets, at a moment Japan-China relations have deteriorated to their worst in many years

Japan and Australia are urging calm in the wake of the aerial encounter, with contrasting accounts and accusations from each side that the other is acting dangerously. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said his country and allies have formally protested it, calling this "an extremely regrettable" act and "a dangerous" one which exceeds "the scope necessary for safe aircraft operations."

J-15 carrier-based fighters, belonging to the air wing of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, were involved in the weekend incident. PLA file image

"We have lodged a strong protest with the Chinese side and demanded strict preventive measures," Koizumi said.

According to a description of the event from Tokyo's side:

Japan’s Defense Ministry said China’s military aircraft J-15 took off from the Chinese carrier Liaoning near the southern island of Okinawa on Saturday and "intermittently" latched its radar on Japanese F-15 fighter jets on two occasions Saturday, for about three minutes in the late afternoon and for about 30 minutes in the evening. It was not made clear whether the radar lock incident involved the same Chinese J-15 both times.

Japan had scrambled its own jets apparently to monitor Chinese military flight actions in the region, and as readiness in case some kind of deeper intervention was needed:

Japanese fighter jets had been scrambled to pursue Chinese ones that were conducting aircraft takeoff and landing exercises in the Pacific. They were pursuing the Chinese aircraft at a safe distance and did not take actions that could be interpreted as provocation, Kyodo News agency said, quoting defense officials, when the radar lock happened. There was no breach of Japanese airspace, and no injury or damage was reported from the incident.

As for the Chinese side, its military responded in a statement alleging the Japanese aircraft of "harassment" during routine PLA exercises.

PLA Navy spokesman, Senior Colonel Wang Xuemeng, asserted, "We solemnly asked the Japanese side to immediately stop slandering and smearing, and strictly restrain its frontline actions. The Chinese Navy will take necessary measures in accordance with the law to resolutely safeguard its own security and legitimate rights and interests."

More from the Chinese version of events on the highly dangerous weekend encounter, which could have led to a full-blown shooting conflict:

Japan deployed F-15 fighter jets, rather than reconnaissance aircraft, to the area where China’s aircraft carrier formation was conducting routine training, and these jets repeatedly approached and disturbed the sea and airspace where the Chinese Navy was conducting training.…

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) December 7, 2025

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has slammed the radar lock-in as "extremely disappointing" and declared "We will act calmly and resolutely."

Takaichi herself has taken center stage in the weekslong controversy, which started when she made comments in a parliamentary meeting last month which made clear Japan could possibly intervene militarily in the scenario of China invading Taiwan. China has been retaliating through measures related to curbing trade, cultural exchanges, and tourism - coupled with threats of more punitive action to come.

Beijing has warned that Takaichi's verbalized stance constitute fighting words...

Tokyo files formal protest as Chinese J-15s direct & lock fire-control radars on its jets south of disputed Diaoyu

New female PM Takaichi vows to FIGHT FOR TAIWAN pic.twitter.com/GwBzU6Qkzi

— RT (@RT_com) December 7, 2025

Lately, Chinese and Japanese vessels have also had tense encounters near disputed Japanese-owned islands, and each's coast guard ships have been involved in warnings and threats.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 19:15

ChatGPT Accused Of Encouraging Alleged Serial Stalker In Latest OpenAI Controversy

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have been discussing how ChatGPT is accused of encouraging the suicide of various individuals as well as the defamation of other individuals.

Various lawsuits have been filed against the company, but now federal prosecutors have indicated that ChatGPT may have played a role in enabling or encouraging an accused criminal stalker.

The New York Post is reporting that federal prosecutors are alleging that ChatGPT served as the “therapist” and “best friend” to Brett Michael Dadig, a Pittsburgh man who violently stalked at least 11 women across more than five states.

Dadig, 31, is a social media influencer who referred to himself as “God’s assassin” and allegedly would threaten to strangle people with his bare hands.

He reportedly used AI to facilitate his conduct and prosecutors say ChatGPT encouraged him to continue his social media posts.

The account is strikingly similar to the suicide cases where ChatGPT allegedly encouraged him to ignore the “haters” and boosted his ego to “build a voice that can’t be ignored.”

Dadig was reportedly convinced that the messages from ChatGPT reaffirmed “God’s plan” for his alleged criminal conduct.

The question is whether any of these stalked women will join others in suing OpenAI as have families of those who committed suicide.

As I previously noted, there is an ongoing debate over the liability of companies in using such virtual employees in dispensing information or advice. 

If a human employee of OpenAI negligently gave harmful information or counseling to a troubled teen, there would be little debate that the company could be sued for the negligence of its employee.

As AI replaces humans, these companies should be held accountable for their virtual agents.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 18:40

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.11 per barrel and Brent at $63.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.90 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.97 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.07 year-over-year.

Freshly Pardoned Cuellar Says Biden DOJ Tried To Entrap Him; Trump Lashes Out Over 'Lack Of Loyalty'

As many of you know, President Trump pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) after he fell under investigation for alleged bribery after criticizing Biden's open border policies. As Trump put it on Truth Social, “For years, the Biden Administration weaponized the Justice System against their Political Opponents, and anyone who disagreed with them,” writing that Cueller had “bravely spoke out against Open Borders, and the Biden Border ‘Catastrophe.’”

Cuellar accused the Biden Department of Justice of trying to bribe and entrap him in a failed sting operation, telling Fox News' Maria Bartiromo that DOJ prosecutors went so far as to set up an elaborate sting operation specifically designed to entrap him. He also pointed out that prosecutors found no evidence of any quid pro quo, the very allegation that formed the basis of their case against him. Despite the lack of evidence, they apparently decided to create some.

"Again, no quid pro quo from any of the evidence, from any of the individuals," Cuellar explained. "And therefore, they even did, attempted a sting operation where they were trying to entrap me, and that failed."

Cuellar and his wife were charged last year with bribery, with the Biden DOJ alleging they accepted roughly $600,000 from Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank in exchange for political favors. Cuellar’s allegations reveal a troubling pattern of prosecutorial misconduct at the highest levels of the Justice Department - a pattern all too familiar when Democrats weaponize government power against their opponents. Democrats used the Obama administration’s Russian collusion hoax to hobble the first Trump administration. Democrats later impeached Trump twice. Then, the Biden Justice Department and Democratic prosecutors across the country pursued dozens of politically charged indictments against Trump in an attempt to prevent his return to the White House.

Bartiromo was clearly shocked by the allegations.

“Wow, entrapment, bribery. Uh, Congressman, tell me specifically, who tried to bribe you? You mean Biden's DOJ tried to bribe you?”

"Yes, that, they did," he confirmed when asked if Biden's DOJ tried to bribe him. "You know, we got all the, the testimony, the 302s, the sting operation. They set up a false company, a false account. They took out money. We saw all this. They took out the money, and they said this money was to bribe me."

The scheme allegedly fell apart when they approached his Washington, DC staff with the dirty money. "They tried to use this money. They talked to my DC staff. My DC staff told them no, there was nothing there," Cuellar recalled. Unable to complete their corrupt scheme, the operatives had no choice but to return the money. "So they actually returned the money back to the account because they couldn't bribe me."

Cuellar made it clear this was no rogue operation by overzealous local prosecutors. The entire case was orchestrated from Washington, DC. "So the Biden administration, they tried to entrap me and tried to bribe me, and that failed," he said. "And this is very significant because one more thing, everything came in from the DOJ in DC. Everything came from the office there. The local office, that is the one in Houston, never got enough."

 "And from my sources, they did not get involved because they felt there was not a case, and they said, 'We're not gonna get involved.' The Houston office said, 'We're not gonna get involved.' It's all the DOJ people in Washington, DC," he explained. When local prosecutors who know the territory refuse to touch a case, that should raise red flags about its legitimacy.

Cuellar says he’s already reached out to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan to request a formal investigation. If Cuellar's allegations are true—and he claims to have the receipts in the form of FBI 302 reports and other documentation, it would be an egregious example of prosecutorial misconduct. Biden's DOJ didn't just bring questionable charges against a sitting congressman who dared to speak out against his immigration policies, but also tried to manufacture evidence through bribery and entrapment when they couldn't find any real wrongdoing. 

Despite Cuellar’s allegations against the Biden administration, he assured Democrats that he’d still be loyal despite Trump’s pardon, and announced his intention to seek reelection as a Democrat, a move that President Trump criticized as a sign of a lack of loyalty in a Sunday post on Truth Social.

“Only a short time after signing the Pardon, Congressman Henry Cuellar announced that he will be ‘running’ for Congress again, in the Great State of Texas (a State where I received the highest number of votes ever recorded!), as a Democrat, continuing to work with the same Radical Left Scum that just weeks before wanted him and his wife to spend the rest of their lives in Prison – And probably still do!”

Trump concluded, “Such a lack of LOYALTY, something that Texas Voters, and Henry’s daughters, will not like. Oh’ well, next time, no more Mr. Nice guy!”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 18:05

Russia Stands "Shoulder To Shoulder" With Venezuela, Blasts US War Footing

Russia on Sunday issued new statements voicing deep concern over the US force posture in the southern Caribbean, warning against any possible slide toward direct military action.

The fresh Kremlin statement said Moscow is standing shoulder to shoulder with Caracas, with a fresh appeal for the Trump administration to avoid exacerbating tensions which could lead to open and unnecessary conflict.

Prior file image: Kremlin.ru

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov criticized Washington's desire to establish unconditional dominance in the region, and decried that this has become the norm for the current administration. 

He warned that "tensions are not easing" and "escalation continues" off Latin America, also after the last few months stretching back to September have seen a string of nearly two dozen deadly US attacks on alleged drug smuggling boats near Venezuela. 

"This is primarily due to the desire to assert the unquestioning dominance of the United States in the region, this is a trademark of the Trump administration," Ryabkov explained.

According to more of his statement:

"We express our solidarity with Venezuela, with whom we recently signed a strategic partnership and cooperation agreement," the deputy foreign minister noted.

"We support Venezuela, as it supports us, in many areas. In this hour of trial, we stand shoulder to shoulder with Caracas and the Venezuelan leadership. We hope that the Trump administration will refrain from further escalating the situation toward a full-scale conflict. We urge it to do so."

The Kremlin in these remarks might also have in mind the just published (on Friday) US National Security Strategy and its significant refocus of America's priorities on the Western Hemisphere.

The document clearly establishes this as the top priority, saying that the US will now "assert and enforce a 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine."

According to this column, "In Venezuela, the Department of War is indeed playing offense, as Trump promised, but the opponent isn’t really Maduro, it's Putin" pic.twitter.com/1W0ros2WvM

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) December 7, 2025

The US national security authors write that this means "a readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere, and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined in recent decades or years."

While Russia has been a longtime ally of President Maduro, it is unlikely to come to his defense in any direct way, also given the delicate and sensitive efforts to improve bilateral ties with Washington amid talks to de-escalate the Ukraine war. This despite Caracas having formally pleaded for more help from Moscow of late, including arms deliveries.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 16:55

Oversupply Warning Jolts India's Solar Buildout

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com,

India’s solar sector has hit that awkward stage of adolescence where ambition seems to be outpacing demand. And now the adults in the room are issuing critical warnings.

A new letter from the clean-energy ministry, quietly circulated to the finance ministry, urges lenders to think twice before showering cash on yet another wave of standalone module factories. When a government that spent the last three years cheerleading capacity expansion suddenly says “maybe don’t,” you can assume the oversupply problem is no longer a theory.

The timing isn’t great for India’s manufacturers. They bulked up with a clear target in mind: the U.S. market. But U.S. tariff walls went up, as did customs scrutiny over Chinese components. This has turned Indian shipments into a slow-moving regulatory piñata. Exports faded. Domestic installations couldn't pick up the slack. And now the ministry is speaking the painful truth that module capacity could climb to 200 GW in the next few years, and cell capacity could climb to 100 GW.

Local demand won’t come close to that.

Translation: keep building like this and you’re manufacturing future bankruptcies.

The subtext here is political as much as economic. India’s decade-long quest to peel itself away from Chinese supply chains has produced a patchwork of incentives, protectionist barriers, and bold proclamations about “solar self-reliance.” But you can only sustain that narrative if the factories you’ve coaxed into existence have somewhere to sell. Right now, many don’t.

The ministry’s preferred solution is to nudge lenders toward funding fully integrated facilities — the kind that run from polysilicon to finished panels.

That would, at least in theory, give India a more defensible position in the global supply chain. But integrated plants require heavy capex, deep technical expertise, and long-term policy stability. India has not always provided the latter.

The smarter read is this: India isn’t abandoning its solar manufacturing push. It’s trying to avoid a bloodbath.

A gentle warning today is cheaper than a mass insolvency cleanup tomorrow. Whether India’s fragmented solar industry takes the hint is another matter entirely.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 16:20

Mainstream Media Jumps On Bogus Narrative That J6 Pipe Bomber Was A Trump Supporter

The arrest of Brian Cole Jr. on Thursday for planting pipe bombs near the DNC and RNC headquarters on January 5, 2021, has exposed yet another case of media malpractice. The Trump administration quickly noted that all the information needed to catch the suspect had been available to the Biden administration for four years, and yet nothing happened. 

Rather than examine why it took so long to crack the case, the legacy media immediately pivoted to protect the Biden administration. The following morning, legacy media outlets were pushing the narrative, based entirely on anonymous sources, that the suspect told the FBI under questioning that he is a Trump supporter who was radicalized by claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

According to NBC News, "The man charged with planting two pipe bombs near the Democratic and Republican party headquarters on the eve of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol told the FBI he believed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, according to two people familiar with the matter.”

Other networks promptly followed.

“During interviews with the FBI, the suspect arrested in the pipe bomb probe told investigators that he believed the 2020 election was stolen, providing perhaps the first indication of a possible motive for the bombs placed near the DNC and RNC headquarters, people briefed on the matter told CNN,” CNN reported. 

CNN’s own reporting, however, thoroughly debunked this storyline. Hours prior to the story suggesting the 2020 election was a motivating factor for Cole, a separate CNN report detailed the criminal affidavit against him, which relied on purchase records of bomb-making materials, cell phone location data, and vehicle license plate reader information to identify him.

The criminal affidavit against Cole primarily relies on purchase history of alleged bomb-making materials, cell phone location data and a vehicle license plate reader.

In 2019 and 2020, Cole purchased multiple items consistent with the components used to make the bombs at Home Depot, Walmart, Lowe’s and Micro Center stores, according to the affidavit.

Investigators then went through Cole’s purchase history and determined he bought all of those supplies over 2019 and 2020, the affidavit states. He also purchased equipment to help assemble the bombs, including safety glasses and a wire-stripping tool, the document states.

If Cole was buying bomb parts in 2019 and 2020 before the election, the notion that post-election grievances drove him to plant the bombs falls apart. The Trump supporter angle collapses even further when you look at Cole's background.

According to a Daily Wire report, he worked at his family’s bail-bond business, which sued the Trump administration over immigration policy in a case decided in November 2020. The family operation, which included helping illegal immigrants get out of ICE facilities, doesn't exactly scream MAGA activism. Public records show the business entangled itself in left-leaning causes, with Cole's father even teaming up with attorney Benjamin Crump—who previously represented the family of Trayvon Martin—to demand the Biden Justice Department investigate a Tennessee prosecutor who raised questions about the bail bond company. This family profile is wildly inconsistent with the image of a die-hard Trump supporter.

But even Cole’s family says he wasn’t a Trump supporter.

Cole's grandmother, Loretta, told the Daily Mail that Cole "has no party affiliation, never votes," and "don't like either party.” She described her grandson as socially withdrawn, "borderline autistic," with "the mind of a 16-year-old," living in his mother's basement and grieving the death of his pet chihuahua. She also emphasized that Cole has no social media presence and never engages in political discussions online. All of this information was readily available to reporters, yet they went ahead with the Trump-supporter storyline anyway.

CNN’s Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst John Miller appeared on Anderson Cooper 360° to discuss the accused bomber's purported statements to the FBI about his election beliefs.

CNN Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst John Miller on the accused DC pipe bomber telling the FBI he believed the 2020 election was stolen, according to sources. pic.twitter.com/RbYarZUxoJ

— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) December 6, 2025

Throughout the day on Friday, mainstream outlets reported Cole as a Trump supporter motivated by stolen election claims, despite their own reporting revealing he purchased bomb materials well before the 2020 election even happened. The media had all the contradictory evidence in front of them and chose to ignore it in favor of a narrative that fit their political agenda. They knew the radicalized Trump supporter angle was false all along, but they ran with it anyway. But why? Was it to protect the Biden administration for failing to capture him sooner?

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 15:45

Zelenskyy Says He Had 'Long And Substantive' Phone Call With Witkoff, Kushner As Peace Talks Continue

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that he had a “long and substantive phone call” with his national security secretary Rustem Umerov, Ukrainian negotiator Andrii Hnatov, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who were gathered in South Florida.

“I am grateful for a very focused, constructive discussion,” Zelenskyy said on X.

“We covered many aspects and went through key points that could ensure an end to the bloodshed and eliminate the threat of a new Russian full-scale invasion, as well as the risk of Russia failing to honor its promises, as has happened repeatedly in the past.”

“Ukraine is determined to keep working in good faith with the American side to genuinely achieve peace,” he added.

”We agreed on the next steps and formats for talks with the United States.”

The Epoch Times' T.J.Muscaro reports that Zelenskyy also thanked Trump for his “intensive approach to negotiations,” and said he was now awaiting the return of Umerov and Hnatov to Ukraine, at which time he would receive their report.

“Not everything can be discussed over the phone, so we need to work closely with our teams on ideas and proposals,” he said.

”Our approach is that everything must be workable—every crucial measure for peace, security, and reconstruction.”

The call follows multiple days of in-person talks between Umerov and Hnatov with Witkoff and Kushner, and six meetings between the two negotiating parties in two weeks.

Those talks were ongoing during Russia’s attack on Dec. 6, which saw the launch of more than 50 missiles and more than 620 drone strikes on energy facilities, railways, and residential buildings in 29 locations.

While Ukraine was able to shoot down 30 of those missiles and neutralize 585 of those drones, the day still saw at least eight people wounded, including three in the Kyiv region, according to Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko.

“Both parties agreed that real progress toward any agreement depends on Russia’s readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace, including steps toward de-escalation and cessation of killings,” according to a summary of Friday’s meeting shared by Witkoff on X.

“Parties also separately reviewed the future prosperity agenda, which aims to support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, joint U.S.-Ukraine economic initiatives, and long-term recovery projects.”

The day after the attack, Zelenskyy gave a speech congratulating the “warriors” who are “holding back the occupiers on all fronts.”

“I thank our servicemembers who, on the battlefield, do their utmost so that Ukraine has confidence at the negotiating table,” he said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 14:35

'Twas The Night Before Fed Day...

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Maybe it was being in Europe, with a particular shout-out to Zurich for putting me in a holiday mood. Academy also has our holiday party this week, which I’m looking forward to, though I’m not sure why I thought guest hosting Bloomberg TV at 6am the next morning would be a good idea. Or maybe it was the daunting task of needing to write about something that I didn’t feel passionate writing about (knowing that it would be about one out of a thousand Fed write-ups hitting your inbox in the next 48 hours didn’t help the motivation level). Or maybe, I was just jet lagged, lazy, and felt that we covered some of the groundwork in last weekend’s The Santa Rally Recipe.

If I was to do a serious report, in as few words as possible, I’d go with:

• Market is pricing in a 95% probability – the Fed won’t disappoint.

• Powell is as close to being a lame duck chair as we’ve seen, so nothing he says will carry much weight into the new year.

• I think the market is still underpricing:

  • The level of coordination we will see between the Treasury, the Fed, and the admin.

  • The “out of the box” thinking we will see in terms of tools implemented and even the shaping of the Fed to try to achieve my interpretation of the stated goal of 3-3-3 (3% growth, 3% front-end yields, and 10-year bond yields with a 3 handle).

If I was to do something for fun, maybe a bit aggressive and tongue in cheek, I’d go with:

'Twas the night before Fed Day, when all through the bourse,
Rate cutters were stirring, ready to open the purse.
The voters in revamped Eccles were afraid of a stock market bear,
But, had high hopes that the Santa Rally soon would be there.

The vigilantes were nestled all smug in anger with the Fed,
While visions of much steeper curves danced in their heads.

With Powell at the podium, about ready to rap,
Reporters were left wondering if markets would give a crap.
When out on the South Lawn there arose such a clatter,
The media sprang up to see what was the matter.
Away to the window they flew like a flash,
Clicked on their phone camera shutters, to witness a great clash.

The spotlight fell on the newly named chair,
Who argued that the hawks didn’t have a prayer.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a shadow chair, with a team of new voices to hear.
With the new driver, sent from crypto heaven,
We knew in a moment it must be Kevin.
More rapid than hawks his doves they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name.

"Now QE! Now Operation Twist! No time to waste!
On Yield Curve Control! Get ready as markets might get a taste.
To the top of the chart! Up Main Street along with Wall!
Now buy every day! Buy away! Buy away all!"

The vigilantes did grumble, the “new” Fed basking in their cries,
When the admin meets an obstacle, they send markets to new highs.
So up to the White House - the doves, they flew,
With the sleigh full of tools, willing to use them too.
And then in a twinkling, I heard on the roof,
The prancing and speaking and even a little woof.
The bond markets were strong, especially in the belly,
Vigilantes shook with rage, arguing that this was all very smelly.

Bessent, with a wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon let us know we had nothing to dread.
He spoke a lot of words, and went straight to his work,
And filled all the bulls stockings, giving the economy a newly found perk.
But I heard him exclaim, even as they never left our sight,
Happy Santa Rally to all, and to all a good night.

My apologies to anyone whose sensibilities I offended (it was meant to be fun) and even greater apologies to those who realize I got bored and eliminated a few stanzas.

In any case, while a bit “over the top,” it more or less fits with my “serious” take, and leaves me with the following bond market outlook:

• 3% or below on Fed Funds by the June 2026 meeting at the latest.

• Steeper yields curves (2s vs 10s are currently at 57) but not so steep that the 10-year doesn’t manage to trade sub 4% (thinking 3.6% to 3.8% seems reasonable).

  • There could be some periods where longer bond yields go higher, but I expect quick and decisive action to try to fight those moves.

War and Peace

Ukraine and Russia keep agreeing to peace deals with the U.S. Unfortunately, the deals that Ukraine agrees to and the deals that Russia agrees to don’t look much alike.

The road to an actual peace deal seems to end in one of two ways:

One side gains ground in the war in the coming months (most likely Russia) causing the deal to look more like what they have agreed to in principle.

Europe does something aggressive:

• Sanctions (including aggressively enforcing the sanctions in place and stopping the loopholes being used, many quite blatantly).

• Military support like we haven’t seen (seems highly unlikely, if not impossible).

• Making a grab at Russia’s frozen reserves (this is what I would do).

In Venezuela, we expect actions to continue to ramp up. While there isn’t an “expiration date” on the USS Ford, there is a sense of urgency to use its capabilities sooner rather than later (it is due for dock time and is very expensive to maintain, especially in a body of water that is relatively small for a carrier group to operate in).

We continue to see three main reasons why the U.S. is so focused on Venezuela:

• It sends a statement to our adversaries. Putin and Mexican Drug Cartels are high on that list.

• A serious effort to “fight the war on drugs” while also refocusing our policy on a North/South alignment.

• Oil. From what we’ve seen in the Middle East and in various proposals for Russia and Ukraine, the admin is likely eyeing access for America and American companies to Venezuela’s oil riches.

What does China make of all of this?

China has been very quiet on the Russia/Ukraine front. How quickly will they embrace a solution where the U.S. is granted vast access and potentially special treatment in Russia? Xi and Putin have had more photo ops than the Kardashians – so they may have a say in what Russia does in the event of peace.

While China has not created any new, far reaching pacts with Venezuela (the way they have with Russia), they have been very involved in the oil production there. Will they readily hand over all further development and control to the U.S.? (Assuming we are correct that this is one of the conditions the President will push for).

Bottom Line

The list of issues that the market needs to deal with have not abated:

• Valuations and the direction of AI tech and spending.

• Electricity generation bottle necks.

• Supply chain risks, especially as the trade agreement with China remains nebulous.

• How markets will react to potential changes at the Fed (you know my thoughts).

• Will rising bond yields in Japan impact bond markets globally? Especially, as recently, we are seeing a strong yen along with higher bond yields – not great for the “carry” trade. In addition to the outright yield being a question mark for global bond markets, the spread between the Japanese 10-year and the U.S. 10-year yield is down to 4.2%, the lowest since early 2022. That too could impact markets.

• The shape of the consumer. The health of the consumer. Whether the market is K, k, or i-shaped is a discussion that is occurring with greater frequency – please see What Shape is the Economy from late September.

Having said that, at the risk of being “complacent,” I don’t think real fear creeps back into the market until later this year, or early next year – seasonality is real and the easing of financial conditions seems real as well.

Looking forward to a potentially interesting week, and my view on the Fed’s likely decision is that it isn’t necessarily what I would do, but it is what I think will happen.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 14:00

Barclays Asks: Netflix-Warner Bros Deal - Holy Grail... Or Poisoned Chalice?

Senators, including Mike Lee, quickly flagged antitrust concerns after Netflix unveiled its $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. (film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max), signaling a high likelihood of congressional hearings in the near future. Hollywood insiders were sharply divided, while Wall Street analysts questioned the marriage of a digital disruptor with one of legacy media's most prominent studios. 

Shortly after the Netflix-WBD deal was announced, Hollywood quickly descended into full-blown panic mode, as we noted:

Already, filmmakers are coming out anonymously saying that the streaming giant, if the deal goes through, would "Hold a Noose Around the Theatrical Marketplace." Just the fact that creative powerful storytellers are afraid of opposing this deal publicly should tell us something. The deal looks illegal and is likely to face a merger challenge, which I'm going to go into. It may ultimately even prompt a monopolization case against Netflix.

Republican Senator Mike Lee raised the alarm with former WBD CEO Jason Kilar, noting that if the deal went through, it would effectively reduce competition in Hollywood.

Beyond lawmakers and Hollywood insiders, Wall Street analysts commented on the deal, including ones at Barclays that framed a note for clients titled "Poisoned Chalice or Holy Grail?" 

A team of analysts led by Kannan Venkateshwar questioned why Netflix is spending more than $80 billion for a legacy studio company it already disrupted, especially with only $2 to $3 billion in expected synergies and a slow integration due to existing WBD distribution and content-licensing agreements. 

Here are Venkateshwar's five thoughts about the deal that provide more clarity:

1. We are surprised that Netflix felt the need to spend $80bn+ and pay a premium for something Netflix disrupted, and it is not clear what problem or opportunity Netflix is solving for that couldn't have been achieved organically. The deal appears to be largely a bet on Netflix being able to execute better than WBD to monetize Warner's content slate rather than any immediate sources of upside. Expected synergies at $2–3bn are lower than we anticipated, which is likely in part because of Netflix wanting to run the WBD business as is for the most part. The transition path post acquisition will also be drawn out because of WBD's content and wholesale deals around the world, which will take some time to unwind, and overlapping subs at HBO and Netflix which will have to be supported separately for a while to avoid revenue synergies.

2. We also believe the approval process could be tortuous as was seen in AT&T/TWX under the prior Trump administration. While contentious assets such as CNN are not part of the deal, we would still expect the process to be drawn out. In the interim, Netflix valuation will have to factor in deal risks and post combination transition risks, as a result of which we would expect valuation to keep drifting lower and to be a bit more uncorrelated to underlying fundamental performance. Netflix thus far has been seen as a defensive stock with low leverage, low tariff exposure, low macro risk, etc, but the setup now in many ways will be different with new regulatory and integration considerations. More importantly, the stock would now have more legacy media elements sch as box office performance and licensing, which would need to factor into valuation. As seen in Figure 1 below, even assuming present multiples, Netflix stock could still have downside, but if multiples were to drift lower, the risk reward would skew significantly lower.

3. Longer term, we have highlighted multiple reasons why investors are likely to be skeptical about the prospects of the combination (please see Why a Netflix acquisition of Warner Bros would be a mistake, 31 Oct 2025).  In our opinion, the main issue will be cultural differences in everything from how projects are greenlighted to box office windows, licensing relationships, wholesale distribution deals, and prioritization of budgets across the Netflix and Warner portfolios. While Netflix management team is best in class, this is a large integration to digest even for seasoned management teams and the culture gap between the two organizations is wider than other past media mergers (maybe with the exception of AOL/Time Warner).

4. From a content perspective, now that Netflix has committed to $80bn+ to buy a franchise factory, it has to ensure that it monetizes DC Comics, Harry Potter, etc, to extract proportionate value.  This in turn will likely result in a more Disney-like focus on scaling up franchises, which is unlikely to be costless. As seen in the case of Disney, too much focus on a franchise strategy tends to limit content breadth, which has long-term organizational costs in terms of creative pipeline stagnation. Netflix does have a different content creation workflow vs traditional studios (more bottom-up vs top-down in Hollywood studios) which may protect against this. However, with management committing to one of the biggest deals in media history, the bar to execute is also higher. Therefore, Netflix will likely have to expand its revenue breath to monetize these assets, which may require a more Disney-like approach. This is not necessarily a negative but will mean a very different investment cycle going forward and the acquisition more being a vehicle for a strategy pivot rather than an accelerant to existing growth drivers.

5. Laterally, PSKY likely has no path to get in on the deal anymore with WBD's board approving the deal. Fundamentally, PSKY valuation is tough to justify without the deal and could have significant downside. We also think PSKY will have to raise significant capital just to fund some of the existing strategic priorities (scaling studio output, UFC, streaming, etc). There is a possibility that there are further deals involving cable networks, given spinoffs from other companies, and PSKY could potentially be involved with some of these possible permutations, but again, this is something that would likely require more capital.

Conclusion: Overall, the asset quality across Netflix and Warner is undeniably formidable and this will in essence have no parallel globally. However, success of the deal will take a long time to manifest and in the interim, Netflix's investment narrative will likely be weighed down by short-term considerations associated with the deal.

Separate commentary from Benny Johnson may reveal a more sinister plot: Netflix's plan to "own a monopoly on children's entertainment." 

Johnson continued:

This is the most dangerous media consolidation in American history. Netflix is trying to acquire Warner Bros. and HBO in an $82 Billion deal. This means Barack and Michelle Obama and the Democrat super-donors that run Netflix will now own a monopoly on children's entertainment. - The Obamas already have a nine-figure Netflix production deal - They've released 17 propaganda titles focused on children, fatherhood, BLM, and trans ideology. - Obama insider Susan Rice sits on Netflix's board With this deal, they will now control: Batman, Superman, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Looney Tunes, Scooby-Doo, and many other children's classics. If it closes, the most powerful propaganda machine in history will be owned by the same people who weaponized the IRS, the FBI, and the DOJ against American citizens. They will rewrite the scripts, reboot the heroes, and algorithm-push trans ideology, race guilt, and anti-family messaging straight into your living room. Your daughter will be told girls can be boys before she can read. Your son will be told America was built on evil. Antitrust laws exist for this exact moment. They prohibits mergers that create monopolies. This is textbook illegal.

This is the most dangerous media consolidation in American history.

Netflix is trying to acquire Warner Bros. and HBO in an $82 Billion deal.

This means Barack and Michelle Obama and the Democrat super-donors that run Netflix will now own a monopoly on children’s… pic.twitter.com/Xr75gSiEaQ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 5, 2025

Johnson's view may carry weight given that the globalist Rockefeller Foundation recently partnered with YouTube creator MrBeast to launch "next-gen storytelling that inspires action" - essentially a propaganda machine - aimed at the tens of millions of children who watch his videos.

Rockefeller Foundation Partners With MrBeast To Target Youth With "Next-Gen" Propaganda https://t.co/SUUPJHSdPm

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 29, 2025

Some on Wall Street remain perplexed because, judged strictly on financial metrics, the Netflix-WBD deal is hard to justify. But viewed through a strategic lens, particularly the race to expand a propaganda machine that influences nation-killing woke into more ​​​​​​youth-focused media franchises, the move becomes very clear.

Control over top-tier children's shows and movie IP effectively allows Democrats and their globalist allies to influence the next generation with toxic wokeim and transform youth into unhinged far-left activists.

The race to shape children's media consumption is underway. The next battlefield is a war for children's minds.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 13:25

Biden, Who Swore He Was Fit For Another Term, Butchers America's Name

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former President Joe Biden resurfaced on Friday and stumbled through his remarks once again, months after insisting he was fit to serve another term and not too long after announcing he had stage IV cancer. 

The 83-year-old former president mangled the country’s name as “Amerigotit” while delivering a 20-minute speech at a conference hosted by the LGBTQ+ Victory Institute. 

The gaffe occurred specifically as Biden claimed that the Democrats could emerge from the “many crises caused by this administration.” 

He said, “But we just have to get up. As long as we keep the faith, some hope and get back up and remember who in the hell we are — we are the United States of Amerigotit.”  

“That’s who we are. We are the US,” he added. 

JOE BIDEN: "We are the United States of Amerigotit”
pic.twitter.com/x4YraMRIAT

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 5, 2025

Biden appeared at the event to receive the Chris Abele Impact Award, which praised his purported record on “inclusivity” during his four years in the White House. 

In addition to the gaffes, Biden resorted to familiar smears against the Republican Party, accusing them of using “people’s basic identity” as a “political football.” 

“They’re trying to turn it into something scary, something sinister,” Biden claimed without offering evidence.  

“But folks, it’s not really about anything that’s all that complicated. 

At its core, it’s about giving every American an opportunity to be treated with the basic decency, dignity and respect they all deserve,” he added. 

Nowhere in his speech did Biden acknowledge the openly gay men serving in the Trump administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell. 

Trump has also appointed several other gay men to high-level posts. Charles Moran serves as a senior Energy Department official, Jacob Helberg is undersecretary of state, Bill White was appointed ambassador to Belgium and Art Fisher was named ambassador to Austria. 

In addition, Trump has long embraced support from “Gays for Trump” groups and affiliated movements throughout his presidential campaigns. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 12:50

Russian Forces Advance As Ukraine Hit By More Than 600 Drone Strikes Overnight

Russian forces made advances in Ukraine as U.S. and Ukrainian officials prepared for a third day of peace talks in Miami.

Russia unleashed 51 missiles and 623 drone strikes on Dec. 6, which was observed as Armed Forces Day in Ukraine.

Ukraine shot down 30 missiles and neutralized 585 drones in the attack, which targeted residential buildings, energy facilities, and railways in 29 locations.

At least eight people were wounded in Saturday’s strikes, including three in the Kyiv region, according to Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko.

“The night was tough,” Klymenko wrote in a translation of an X post on Dec. 6.

“Russia again struck civilian infrastructure with drones and missiles.”

As Jacki Thrapp details below for The Epoch Times, the barrage occurred after Russian forces advanced north and southeast of Myrnohrad and infiltrated positions in northwestern Pokrovsk, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed in its Dec. 5 report.

Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk are located in the southeastern part of the country, nearly 200 miles from the Russian border town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

Data reviewed by the nonprofit research organization found that even though Russian forces advanced on Myrnohrad, they have not encircled Ukrainian forces in the city as of Dec. 5. However, Russian forces are attempting to complete the isolation of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket, the ISW stated.

As Moscow continued escalations in Ukraine, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Ukrainian negotiators Rustem Umerov and Andriy Hnatov discussed a security framework for postwar Ukraine in Florida on Friday.

Charred electric trains are seen in a damaged depot in the town of Fastiv, Kyiv region, after an air attack, on Dec. 6, 2025, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Serhii Okunev/AFP via Getty Images

It was the sixth meeting the parties have had over the course of two weeks.

“Both parties agreed that real progress toward any agreement depends on Russia’s readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace, including steps toward de-escalation and cessation of killings,” according to a summary of Friday’s meeting shared by Witkoff on X.

"Parties also separately reviewed the future prosperity agenda, which aims to support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, joint U.S.-Ukraine economic initiatives, and long-term recovery projects.”

Another round of discussions is scheduled for Dec. 6.

During a speech on Dec. 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated the “warriors” who are “holding back the occupiers on all fronts.”

“I thank our servicemembers who, on the battlefield, do their utmost so that Ukraine has confidence at the negotiating table,” Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy thanked everybody who defended Ukraine and said, “Eternal memory to those who gave their lives for Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine!”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 12:15

Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.    Market participants currently expect two additional rate cuts in 2026.
Analysis suggests rates are currently slightly restrictive (Cleveland Fed) or even already accommodative (even before this rate cut).  So, to cut rates in this environment, FOMC members are clearly expecting either inflation to decline quickly or an employment recession, or both.  This outlook should show up in the projections (lower inflation, higher unemployment rate).
From Goldman Sachs:

The FOMC is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut to 3.5-3.75% at what will likely be a contentious December meeting next week. ... The case for a cut is solid, in our view. Job growth remains too low to keep up with labor supply growth, the unemployment rate has risen for three months in a row to 4.4%, other measures of labor market tightness have weakened more on average, and some alternative data measures of layoffs have begun to rise recently, presenting a new and potentially more serious downside risk.

From BofA:

The Fed has signaled that it will cut rates by 25bp to 3.5-3.75% at its Dec meeting. We look for two or three substantive changes in the FOMC statement. The description of labor market conditions is likely to omit the language that the u-rate “remained low”, to reflect the 32bp uptick over the last three months.
...
The SEP is likely to show upgrades to growth in 2025 and 2026. ... However, as a mark-to-market based on the latest data, we think the u-rate for 4Q 2025 will be taken up by a tenth to 4.6%. ... These changes would provide some cover for cutting rates despite the expected upgrades to the growth outlook.
emphasis added

Projections will be released at this meeting. Here are the September projections.  
The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 3.5%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 2.2% annualized - well above the top end of the September projections.   So GDP for 2025 will likely be increased.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20251.4 to 1.71.7 to 2.11.8 to 2.0Jun 20251.2 to 1.51.5 to 1.81.7 to 2.0 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year. There was no data for October due to the government shutdown, and the November report will be released on December 16th - the week after the FOMC meeting - so the FOMC is flying blind this week on the unemployment rate.  However, they will probably increase the 2025 projection (and possibly 2026) as justification for the rate cut.  An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might be recessionary (according to the Sahm rule).
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20254.4 to 4.54.4 to 4.54.2 to 4.4Jun 20254.4 to 4.54.3 to 4.64.2 to 4.6 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of September 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.  Projections for PCE inflation will probably remain unchanged or lowered slightly.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20252.9 to 3.02.4-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.8 to 3.22.3-2.62.0 to 2.2
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.   Projections for 2025 core PCE inflation will likely be decreased.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20253.0 to 3.22.5-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.9 to 3.42.3-2.62.0 to 2.2

California Agency Approves Water Management Plan Increasing Output

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has approved a revised plan for managing California’s Central Valley Project (CVP), with the goal of sending more water to farmers in the state

An aerial view shows Friant Dam, which holds back Millerton Lake in Friant, Calif., on March 7, 2025. Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

The revised operation, called Action 5, aligns with directives from Executive Order 14181, signed on Jan. 24 by President Donald Trump, which orders federal agencies to maximize water output from the CVP while complying with legal standards.

“With the signing of this Record of Decision, we are delivering on the promise of Executive Order 14181 to strengthen California’s water resilience,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a statement on Thursday.

Burgum also said the updated operations plan employs the state-of-the-art science to increase water deliveries while safeguarding the environment.

Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Andrea Travnicek said that Action 5 represents a forward-looking approach to water management that balances the needs of the state’s communities, agriculture, and ecosystems.

“By refining real-time governance and operational flexibility, we are ensuring that every drop of water is managed with precision, accountability, and purpose,” she said.

The change could increase yearly CVP distributions by 130,000 to 180,000 acre-feet, with the State Water Project gaining 120,000 to 220,000 acre-feet, depending on weather and California’s implementation of Action 5.

The new strategy overrides the December 2024 framework and incorporates advanced scientific tools for decision-making. The adjustments stay within the 2024 environmental impact study’s scope and are in line with biological assessments from NOAA Fisheries and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Notable shifts include minor changes to Delta pumping, ending the Delta Summer and Fall Habitat Action, and removal of export-reduction ideas from California’s Healthy Rivers and Landscapes initiative.

The announcement occurs at the same time as the 90th anniversary of the CVP’s 1935 authorization, which created an expansive system of dams, reservoirs, and canals spanning 400 miles from Redding to Bakersfield, and serving up to 30 million people.

In December 2024, federal and state officials agreed to regulate CVP flows to protect against floods and droughts.

“The new framework supercharges our adaptive management and enables project operators to work with water users and the broader public to better manage the system to benefit millions of Californians and endangered fish species,” state water director Karla Nemeth said at the time. “Extreme storms and extended droughts mean we need to be as nimble as possible in operating our water infrastructure.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom celebrated federal collaboration between the state and the then-Biden administration, claiming the future would be hotter and drier.

“That means we have to do everything we can now to prepare and ensure our water infrastructure can handle these extremes,” Newsom said at the time.

Deputy Assistant Secretary Mike Brain said the Central Valley Project “is critical to the state’s water supply future.”

Funding help came in September, with $1 billion for storage expansions, Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) announced.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/07/2025 - 11:40