The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• How Warren Buffett Did It: The most successful investor of all time is retiring. Here’s what made him an American role model. (The Atlantic)

• The Last Human Edge: In an age of machines, Henry Ellenbogen’s alpha comes from reading people, patterns, and the painful transition where certain companies either compound for life or die trying. (Colossus) see also The war is over. Human advisors won. Wildly wrong predictions from a generation ago are laughable today. (Downtown Josh Brown)

• The 20-something billionaires ushering in a betting bonanza in Trump’s Washington: The CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi were facing off with the federal government one year ago. Now they’re new power players in Washington. (Politico)

• Stanford’s star reporter takes on Silicon Valley’s ‘money-soaked’ startup culture: “How to Rule the World,” out May 19 — three weeks before he graduates — promises an explosive look at how venture capitalists treat Stanford students as “a commodity,” wooing favored undergrads with slush funds, shell companies, yacht parties, and funding offers before they even have business ideas in their hunt for the next trillion-dollar founder. (TechCrunch)

• The United States of Klarna: Want to understand the state of the economy? Just look to all the shoppers flocking to “buy now, pay later” services. (Businessweek free) see also America’s hidden economic crisis: From healthcare costs to layoff worries, the country’s under-the-radar problem is personal financial chaos. (Business Insider)

• We Might Not Be So Strange: Perhaps intelligent life wasn’t so unlikely after all: It seems a rather odd coincidence that in the 4.6 billion years since Earth formed, humans have emerged now. For us to be here, first life itself had to get started, of course, and then develop more complexity. Then enough oxygen had to accumulate in the atmosphere. And habitability had to continue for a further 2 billion years or so while complex animals evolved. But here we are, now, thinking about such things, on a world that seems uniquely hospitable to us. (Nautilus)

• The 26 Most Important Ideas For 2026: Modern trends and history lessons—across culture, politics, AI, economics, science, and the long story of progress. But first: an announcement! (Derek Thompson)

• Melissa Hortman Died in a Shocking Act of Political Violence. This Is the Story of Her Life: The Minnesota Speaker’s closest friends and family open up for the first time. (Rolling Stone)

• An amateur codebreaker may have just solved the Black Dahlia and Zodiac killings: To attack the problem, Baber used artifical intelligence and generated a list of 71 million possible 13-letter names. Using known details of the Zodiac killer, based on witness descriptions, he cross-checked those names against military, marriage, census and other public records. (L.A. Times)

• 21 Facts About Throwing Good Parties: Parties are like babies, if you’re stressed while holding them they’ll get stressed too. Every other decision is downstream of your serenity: e.g. it’s better to have mediocre pizza from a happy host than fabulous hors d’oeuvres from a frazzled one. (Atoms vs Bits)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

Sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024

Source: Bloomberg

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

 

I love this short, sweet version of what to do with your capital; its an updated version of the index card strategy, via @buccocapital::

 

Few thoughts on retail investing since it’s popping up again on FinTwit:

– As I’ve said before, I think it’s probably the lowest ROI activity you can do if you’re trying to get rich. Focus on your career
– You should index 90% of your money
– You have zero edge day to day. Your…

— BuccoCapital Bloke (@buccocapital) December 19, 2025

 

 

 

Previously:
The advice to ensure financial ruin? It fits on a 4×6 index card (September 13, 2015)

How to ruin your financial life, #badadvice (Washington Post, September 12, 2015)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Few thoughts on retail investing since it’s popping up again on FinTwit:

– As I’ve said before, I think it’s probably the lowest ROI activity you can do if you’re trying to get rich. Focus on your career

– You should index 90% of your money

– You have zero edge day to day. Your advantages are that you have duration, no mandate, and nobody forcing you to sell

– It follows that the fewer trades you do, the better. The more trades you do, the worse you will do

– Process is the only thing that matters. How rigorous is your process? How do you reflect on what worked and what didn’t? Do you even know why it worked? Otherwise it’s just luck. For most people is still probably just luck.

– Your biggest enemy is yourself. You have no institutional guardrails to stop you from doing stupid things

– If you are thinking of it YTD you have already lost. That’s not your game, and is a recipe for failure. Trying to beat the market every single year will cause you to overtrade, where you have a structural and insurmountable disadvantage

– It’s OK to just do it for the love of the game. Because it’s the greatest game on earth!

 

 

The post Retail Investing: Best Ideas appeared first on The Big Picture.

"You Know Who I Am, Right?" Viral Video Shows Entitled Democrat Taunt Cops, Play Victim During DUI Stop

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

What is the next worst thing to being arrested for DUI just before Christmas with a viral video of you berating an officer? Being confused with that person by irate citizens because you share the same name, Maria Bucci. It is particularly unwelcome when you are a substance abuse counselor.

On December 18, Maria Bucci, a 51-year-old Rhode Island political figure, was pulled over on suspicion of drunk driving by an officer in East Greenwich. The Chairwoman of the Democratic Committee in Cranston is shown on the police bodycam video invoking her special or influential status: “You know who I am right?”

The Cranston Herald reported Bucci is a former Cranston mayoral candidate who previously served on the City Council and made an unsuccessful bid for the Rhode Island House of Representatives last year.

The officer responds by saying, “I don’t know who you are, miss. You can start throwing out names and start doing out what you need to do, it’s not going to work with me, I’m telling you right now, I’m not the guy for that.”

That only seemed to set Bucci off, who then abused the officer. The most ironic statement was the following:

“Call my husband right now, and call the attorney general and everybody else in town, cause this is disgusting, God forbid I was a Black person, I’d be arrested.”

So, after invoking a special privilege or status, Bucci attacked the officer as presumptively racist for not arresting white people for crimes that Black people are arrested for.

He then arrested her for a misdemeanor as she declared, “You’re a d**k … Like I am not drinking, you’re a loser.”

If she were drunk, it would seem a case of in vino veritas, or “in wine there is truth.” The immediate response of this politician is to reveal a deep dislike of police officers and her view of officers as inherently racist.

Bucci will have to deal with the consequences, but it should be the right Bucci. While the real Bucci asked “You know who I am, right?” some appear to have done little to answer in the affirmative before going on the attack.

The problem is that East Greenwich has a second Maria Bucci, who is also a substance abuse counselor. She was apparently deluged by trolling and angry citizens.

The “other” Maria Bucci is also from Cranston but works in East Greenwich. She is 61 years old and was surprised to find herself taking the heat for someone else over the holiday.

It was bad enough that East Greenwich News ran a story to ask people to stop harassing the poor woman, noting that the newspaper:

“typically doesn’t use names when people who get arrested unless there is a public service aspect. We did not consider Bucci’s arrest rose to that level but we are writing about it now to clarify that the Maria Bucci who works for the Town of East Greenwich is not the same Maria Bucci arrested by EGPD Dec. 18 (here is that arrest report: 25-251-AR).”

Legally, the “other” Maria Bucci could sue for a publication that falsely claims she was responsible for this viral encounter. (So far, no news organizations have committed that error). However, such litigation is expensive and trolls are notoriously difficult to track down. That leaves Maria Bucci in the unfortunate class of others who share names with notorious figures, as Dr. Jeffrey Epstein recently learned after a bizarre shoutout from ep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). Indeed, even spelling “Madoff” with one “f” does not help when you are scooped up in the sensation of a crime.

Bucci is clearly not on the same level as an Epstein or a Madoff. This is, after all, a still unproven misdemeanor. However, in the community of Cranston, Rhode Island (pop. 84,934), it is hard to shake a viral story with your name. The greatest penalty likely to befall the real Maria Bucci is the reputational damage, which should not be shared with that “other” Maria Bucci.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 15:05

Comer: The 'Walls Are Caving In' On Tim Walz

House Oversight Chairman James Comer declared this week, “The walls are caving in on Tim Walz,” as a federal probe into Minnesota's sprawling fraud scandal intensifies. Whistleblowers, mayors, and lawmakers now enter the fray, spotlighting waste in social programs that hammer everyday residents. 

The fraud Comer described reaches far beyond accounting errors. Minnesota taxpayers now must endure cuts to basic services because billions of dollars earmarked for social programs vanished due to fraudulent schemes, most of which are tied to the state's Somali community. The scale of the fraud has forced state officials to slash budgets and shift costs to local governments, leaving mayors across Minnesota scrambling to maintain essential services like police protection, infrastructure maintenance, and emergency response without bankrupting residents through property tax hikes.

The House Oversight Committee is coordinating with federal agencies and preparing subpoenas for records and testimony to trace the money and identify the culprits. 

Comer stopped short of demanding Walz resign but made it clear that the governor cannot escape accountability. "He deserves due process, and we're going to give him due process," Comer said.

Walz, of course, isn’t happy about the federal investigations and insists he can 

“This [was] on my watch,” Walz said last week. “I am accountable for this, and more importantly, I am the one that will fix it.”

Walz added, “Unlike the president, I’m governor now [and] whether these programs happen before we got here or afterwards, it doesn’t matter. We’re here now. We’re the ones fixing it. You have my guarantee on this, that I certainly will have this thing fixed.”

A Walz spokesperson dismissed the congressional probe as partisan theater designed to muzzle a vocal Trump critic. "This is clearly a coordinated political attack to try to silence one of the President's most effective critics," the spokesperson stated. "The Governor takes fraud seriously and wishes they would too.”

Comer, however, dismissed Walz's suggestion that the Oversight Committee should step aside and let him investigate the fraud. "No one in America believes that. We are going to investigate this,” Comer said.

The scandal traces back to at least 2020 and involves fraudulent billing across numerous government programs, concentrated heavily but not exclusively within the Somali population. Federal prosecutors revealed that the Feeding Our Future case alone, which already resulted in charges against nearly 80 people, involved roughly $250 million in bogus claims for pandemic nutrition aid. Last week, prosecutors revealed the total fraud across Minnesota's social services system could reach $9 billion or more.

Comer emphasized that successful congressional investigations depend on insiders willing to break ranks, and he now has them. "The key to a good congressional investigation is having whistleblowers. And, fortunately for us, we have some state employees who have bravely stepped forward. We're going to get them under oath, and they're going to tell us everything they know. And we're going to go from there.”

The revolt against Walz extends beyond Washington. Nearly 100 Minnesota mayors delivered a stinging rebuke Monday in a letter to Walz and state legislative leaders, blaming fraud, reckless spending, and erratic fiscal management in St. Paul for crippling their cities. "Fraud, unchecked spending, and inconsistent fiscal management in St. Paul have trickled down to our cities," the mayors wrote. "Our state owes it to our citizens to practice responsible fiscal management and to stop taxing our families, seniors, and businesses out of Minnesota.”

The mayors also pointed to Minnesota's declining position in national economic rankings over the past six years, echoing a Minnesota Chamber of Commerce report that described the state's trajectory as a wake-up call. Once boasting an $18 billion surplus under Walz's watch, Minnesota now faces a projected $3 billion deficit for the 2028-29 budget cycle. This means that the mayors are now being forced to raise taxes, cut services, delay infrastructure projects, or stretch municipal employees even thinner.

With subpoenas imminent and state employees preparing to testify under oath, Walz is staring down a political reckoning that could permanently end his career. The investigation is tightening, the facts are coming to light, and the collapse of trust alone may prove impossible to overcome.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 14:40

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was decent in 2025, up 3.5% year-over-year as of November. How much will wages increase in 2026?

The most followed wage indicator is the “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report.

Click on graph for larger image.

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Real wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November 2025. Although wage growth was close to expectations in November and is trending down.
There are two quarterly sources for earnings data: 1) “Hourly Compensation,” from the BLS’s Productivity and Costs; and 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary and benefit compensation. All three data series are different, and most of the focus recently has been the CES series (used in the graph above).

The second graph is from the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.   This measure is the year-over-year change in nominal wages for individuals.

By following wage changes for individuals, this removes the demographic composition effects (older workers who are retiring tend to be higher paid, and younger workers just entering the workforce tend to be lower paid).

The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth increased sharply in 2021 and for most of 2022.   In September 2025, the smoothed 3-month average wage growth was at 4.1% year-over-year, down from a peak of 6.7% in July 2022.

NOTE: Due to the government shutdown, the wage tracker has only been updated through September.   It will likely move lower in October and November based on the CES above.

Clearly wage growth has been slowing.  Immigration policy (deportations) might boost wages for some jobs that have been held by undocumented immigrants, but overall I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.  My sense is nominal wages will increase close to low-to-mid 3% range YoY in 2026 according to the CES. Although it is possible that wage growth will increase with a falling participation rate and slower population growth. 
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Mortgage Rates Dip To 3-Year-Lows As Home-Sellers Outnumber Buyers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The weekly mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.18 percent for the week ending Dec. 24 as the housing market continues to lean in favor of buyers.

The 6.18 percent rate is the lowest level since 2022 and a slight decline from 6.21 percent the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. The current rate is 0.86 percentage points below the yearly peak of 7.04 percent reached in mid-January.

The recent rate decline comes as the U.S. housing market registered 37.2 percent more sellers than buyers in November, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a statement on Dec. 23.

“That’s the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 aside from this summer. It compares with 35.6 percent a month earlier and 17 percent a year earlier,” the brokerage said.

“Redfin defines a market with over 10 percent more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market. By this definition, it has been a buyer’s market since May 2024.”

The 37.2 percent gap translates into 529,770 more sellers in the market.

Among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan regions, Austin, Texas, was the strongest buyer’s market last month, with 114 percent more sellers than buyers, according to Redfin.

This was followed by San Antonio, Texas; Nashville; and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, each of which had sellers outnumbering buyers by more than 100 percent.

Out of the 50 metros, 36 were buyer’s markets, seven were balanced, and the remaining seven were seller’s markets.

The number of home buyers hit the second-lowest level on record in November, as many backed off amid economic uncertainty and high housing costs, the statement said.

“A modest improvement in housing affordability could bring some homebuyers off the sidelines in 2026, which could narrow the gap between homebuyers and sellers,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said.

“But the housing market is likely to remain in buyer’s market territory for the foreseeable future, with sellers cutting prices or offering concessions to lure buyers.”

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched higher this month despite businesses facing challenges such as rising construction costs, economic uncertainty, and buyer hesitation, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said in a Dec. 15 statement.

“In positive signs for the market, builders report that future sales expectations have been above the key breakeven level of 50 for the past three months, and the recent easing of monetary policy should help builder loan conditions at the start of 2026,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said.

The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rates three times this year, pushing it down to a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent.

In a Dec. 11 commentary, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at real estate data company Bright MLS, suggested that even if mortgage rates were to decline further, other concerns are weighing on prospective buyers’ minds.

On the positive side, Sturtevant expects mortgage rates to fall further.

“Expect mortgage rates to ease somewhat in 2026, though Bright MLS forecasts are for rates to remain above 6 percent through the end of next year,” she wrote.

“Slightly lower rates and slower price growth should improve affordability a little, which could bring more buyers into the market.”

President Donald Trump has vowed to lower mortgage costs.

“I will announce some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history,” he said during a televised address on Dec. 17.

Trump said he plans to announce a new Federal Reserve chairman who will support lower interest rates, which will trigger further decline in mortgage rates.

He suggested that illegal immigration under the Biden administration contributed significantly to housing costs.

“Over 60 percent of growth in the rental market came from foreign migrants,” the president said. “For the first time in 50 years, we are now seeing reverse migration as migrants go back home, leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 14:15

NATO Countries Scare Their Populations On Christmas With Hyped 'Russian Nuclear Bombers' Flight

On Western Christmas, December 25, Russian nuclear-capable bombers conducted a "scheduled" flight over waters in the Arctic region, specifically in neutral waters of the Norwegian and Barents Seas. This prompted "fighter jets of foreign countries" to escort them and mirror them from afar, Russia's defense ministry has confirmed.

While the country origins of the Western aircraft which responded remain unclear, the Kremlin had notified NATO in advance of the somewhat routine flight path. The bodies of water in question lie north of Scandinavia and northwest of Russia, which is quite far from the UK, and yet British media did what they do best: exaggerate and hype Russian nuclear bombers being "sent" by Putin "to the UK"...and on Christmas!

And never mind the fact that for Russia and its Orthodox Church, it is not Christmas. Russian Orthodox Christmas falls on January 7, according the Julian calendar ecclesiastical dating system.

These bodies of water lie far away from Britain, and is a standard flight path for Russia's military. "At certain stages of the route, long-range bombers were escorted by fighter jets of foreign countries," the Russian defense ministry disclosed.

The ministry further said that such flights "regularly take place in many regions and are in accordance with international law."

Highlighting that these bombers were not at all 'sent' to the UK, one political commentator says as follows:

British media outlets like the Mirror and The Sun have reported that Russian nuclear-capable bombers flew a long-range patrol over the Norwegian Sea on Christmas Day Dec 25, 2025. Which was described as a deliberate act close to the notional "Santa Claus flight path". NATO warplanes were scrambled to monitor the aircraft.

This is how the media spinned it! When it was two Russian Tu-95MS long-range bombers known as "Bears" that conducted a scheduled routine, seven-hour flight over "neutral waters" in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. The media made it sound like they were threatening NATO. When NATO was informed by the Russians the path that was taken.

The distant, far northern body of water in question...

via World Atlas

Similar Russian bomber flights have recently occurred over the Sea of Japan, and in coordination with China's military in the East China Sea, and such flight paths have even lately traversed the Black Sea.

Given the Ukraine proxy war is about to reach its fourth year, we are indeed living in dangerous times, but the situation is not helped when European press endlessly fearmongers and exaggerates. Of course, this is stoked by defense officials in London and Brussels, who keep pushing for bigger defense budgets, and for taxpayers to keep on funding Ukraine. 

NATO apparently wanted young British boys and girls to know that its warplanes are keeping European skies safe from the 'Russian aggressor'... 

via US Air Force Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:50

Georgia Secretary Says 2020 Election Blunder 'Does Not Erase Votes'

Authored by Kim Jarrett via The Center Square,

Five years after the 2020 election, challenges in Georgia continue despite multiple audits.

The latest questions surround the December meeting of the Georgia State Election Board. Nearly two weeks after the meeting, some continue to claim Fulton County was fraudulent because tabulation tapes were not signed that included 315,000 votes.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger addressed the accusations in a social media post.

“Georgia has the most secure elections in the country and all voters were verified with photo ID and lawfully cast their ballots. A clerical error at the end of the day does not erase valid, legal votes,” Raffensperger said.

Other Republicans questioned Raffensperger.

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is running for governor, criticized his opponent, Raffensperger, in a post Monday.

“If only Georgia had an official responsible for preventing clerical errors that undermine election integrity. Is there anyone in Georgia who has that job, Brad?” Jones said

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, who is running for Senate, said he was “tired of empty words from weak leaders” in a social media post from his campaign page.

“President Trump is owed a massive apology,” Collins said. “Turns out over 300,000 early votes in the 2020 election were illegally certified but still included in the final results.”

An election cannot be overturned based on a rule, Robert Sinners communications director for the Secretary of State’s Office, told The Center Square.

“The basis for these claims is that Fulton County admitted to sloppy election administration and not following a State Election Board rule,” Sinners said in an email. “There is no mechanism in law to overturn the election based on not following this rule – as it wasn’t even part of the election code – it was a procedural rule.”

New procedures were put in place to ensure the mistake doesn’t happen again, Ann Brumbaugh, an attorney for the Fulton County Board of Registrations and Elections, told the State Election Board.

Sinners acknowledged improvements were needed.

“Based on the reports from appointed monitors who were on site in Fulton County reviewing the conduct of the election – there was sloppiness that needed improvement, but outright fraud was not a concern,” Sinners said.

The 2020 election was recounted twice, and then, subject to a 100% hand count, according to Sinners.

“This is in addition to more audits that took place in localized jurisdictions. I would say the 2020 election was the most scrutinized in history – at least in this state,” Sinners said.

Trump had repeatedly said the election that put Joe Biden in the White House was stolen. This month, the Department of Justice sued Fulton County and the state of Georgia, alleging that they had failed to turn over data about the 2020 ballots. Those cases are still pending.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:25

Amid Nike's Worst Drawdown Since late 70s, UBS Flags Emerging Bullish Signals

Nike was thrust into the news flow earlier this week after Apple CEO Tim Cook placed a buy order for 50,000 Class B shares at a weighted average price of $58.97. The stock has been locked in a four-year bear market, as recent earnings data point to softer demand in China and mixed channel trends in North America.

Looking past all the gloom, UBS analyst Jay Sole told clients Friday about UBS Evidence Lab's latest global sportswear survey, which points to "bullish" trends for Nike.

Sole said the survey suggests "the brand is improving y/y and remains strong," and that the turnaround could be just ahead. He has a "neutral" rating on the stock and believes the turnaround will take longer than the market expects. The survey results suggest Nike's plan to prioritize re-entering the wholesale channel under new CEO Elliott Hill.

For context, Evidence Lab is UBS's proprietary alternative data and analytics platform used by the bank's clients to supplement traditional financial analysis. The data include large-scale consumer surveys, web traffic, app usage, geolocation, transaction data, pricing scrapes, and sentiment signals, providing actionable insights into brand health, demand trends, market share shifts, and competitive positioning.

Here is Sole's complete insight into why "The Global Sportswear Survey Bullish for Nike"...

The survey makes us more constructive on NKE, but our rating is Neutral: UBS Evidence Lab's 11th global sportswear survey is bullish for Nike, in our view. The survey shows Nike's brand remains strong and is improving y/y. The survey increases our conviction Nike's brand strength provides the foundation upon which it can ultimately stage a comeback. We continue to believe Nike's business will improve. Our rating is Neutral because we think its turnaround will take longer than the market expects.

Survey results suggest 2 key elements of Nike's strategy are working: Since Elliott Hill became CEO, Nike has prioritized re-entering the wholesale channel. In this year's survey, a higher percentage of global consumers say Nike's products are easy to find in stores and online. This percentage dropped from 2019 through 2022, but has rebounded to a new peak this year. We believe this is attributable to Mr. Hill's channel strategy. Under Elliott Hill's leadership, Nike has also refocused on sports. Likely as a result, the percentage of consumers who say Nike is "good for doing sports" bounced back to its 2019 peak level (Fig. 29).

5 other survey insights showing Nike's brand strength and gains:

1. Nike holds the highest Net Promoter Score (NPS) among all brands and its scores are rising. The surprising fact is not only does Nike have the highest NPS globally, but it also has the best score in each of the four geographies studied (US, UK, Germany, China: Figs. 30, 67, 106, 153, 180). Plus, Nike's NPS in each region are rising (Figs. 31, 68, 107, 144, 181).

2. Nike retains strong brand attributes. Nike ranks as the #1 or #2 brand globally in the "high-quality products," "good for doing sports," "prestigious brand,' "innovative brand," and "fashionable or cool brand" categories as well as others (Figs. 18-28).

3. Global purchase intentions are up y/y. Global consumers plan to buy more footwear as well as more apparel from Nike over the NTM (Figs. 14-15).

4. Global consumers' impression of the Nike brand is improving. Plus, the rate of improvement relative to other brands' looks good (Figs. 35-36). Gains in the US are particularly notable, in our view (Fig. 72).

5. Nike has the highest loyalty rate globally. Nike also has the highest conversion rate globally (Figs. 39-40).

Two modestly negative survey data points: The survey shows Nike has experienced slight erosion in global aided awareness within the 16-24 year-old age demographic (Fig. 10). This could be a consequence of Nike not being as "hot"of a brand over the last couple years as it was before that. Also, the Converse brand survey results are lackluster, in our view.

Valuation: Our $62 PT is based on 29x our $2.15 FY28 EPS estimate

For the full note, ZeroHedge Pro subs can view it here. 

Sole's view comes as the stock is locked in Nike's worst declines since the late 1970s.

At some point, Nike will figure out how to sell more Air Force 1s in China and, if management is smart enough, stop selling "woke" propaganda.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:00

Why Christmas Is The Most Stressful Week For The Diesel Market

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• Holiday logistics lock in diesel demand regardless of price, draining already thin inventories.

• Europe’s post-Russia diesel dependence makes year-end disruptions especially risky.

• Christmas reveals structural fragility in distillate markets before crude prices reflect it.

Santa runs on diesel. Every year, the global holiday economy depends on a short, unforgiving surge in distillate consumption that powers trucks, ports, warehouses, refrigeration, and backup generation, all under winter operating conditions. That commercially driven holiday cheer strains logistics and exposes how thin the margin has become in some already-tight diesel markets, particularly in Europe. 

After crude, diesel is the most economically important fuel in the system, and Christmas is when that reality asserts itself. In the U.S., distillate demand typically rises into December not primarily because of heating, but because freight intensity peaks at the same time inventories are already being seasonally drawn. 

Recent weekly data show U.S. distillate supply running close to 4.0 million barrels per day, near the upper end of the post-pandemic range, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly petroleum status report. Commercial distillate stocks have hovered roughly in the 110- to 115-million-barrel range heading into late December, well below historical averages for early winter, based on EIA inventory data. That leaves little margin for error when logistics volumes increase in the final weeks of the year.

Europe’s position is even tighter. 

Since the loss of Russian diesel flows, the region has become structurally dependent on long-haul imports from the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Middle East, and India. Northwest European gasoil inventories have struggled to rebuild to comfortable levels, a pattern tracked by Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp inventory reporting, and December freight demand reliably erodes whatever buffer exists. 

On paper, supply appears to be enough, but in reality, the system is sensitive to disruption because replacement barrels travel farther, arrive later, and compete with the same shipping capacity needed to move goods.

Christmas matters because diesel demand during this period is not responding to price. Parcel delivery, food distribution, cold-chain logistics, and retail restocking all scale simultaneously. 

Unlike gasoline, where weak consumer sentiment can soften demand, diesel consumption in late December is tied to physical throughput. Packages still move even if margins are thin. Missed deliveries turn quickly into lost sales, spoiled inventory, contractual penalties, and reputational damage. The demand is locked in by calendar and contracts, not price.

That shows up in crack behavior. In a normal year, diesel cracks widen in the winter as logistics and heating demand overlap. 

In 2025, the signal has been much noisier. European diesel cracks softened in November amid mild weather and weak industrial activity, a trend flagged in ICE gasoil and ULSD crack spread tracking, yet physical premiums for prompt barrels have remained firm in several regional markets, according to European distillate market assessments. The divergence between paper cracks and physical pricing is exactly the kind of distortion Christmas amplifies, because immediate logistical needs trump macro drivers.

Refinery behavior also paints a similar picture. 

Every December, operators would love to have operational flexibility, but holiday logistics force high utilization rates, particularly at distillate-heavy configurations. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have often run above 90% utilization through late Q4, based on EIA refinery utilization data, prioritizing diesel yields even as gasoline margins slump. That optimization reduces slack in the system. When something goes wrong, weather, equipment failure, or pipeline constraints, there is less room to adjust or draw on inventories.

Exports add even more risk. 

The U.S. has become Europe’s marginal diesel supplier, with distillate exports frequently running around 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day, according to EIA export flow data. Those barrels do not stop for Christmas. Any disruption along the export chain during this window, whether it’s fog in the Houston Ship Channel to Atlantic storms or congestion in Northwest European ports, happens when European buyers have the least flexibility and inventories are already drawn.

This is where “Santa runs on diesel” becomes very real. 

The holiday economy is leveraged to distillate reliability. Diesel is found in every step, from long-haul trucking, regional distribution, last-mile delivery, refrigeration, and backup power to port equipment and warehouse operations. It is the fuel that fails last and hurts fastest when it does.

There is also a transition blind spot that becomes exposed every December. Electrification has made progress in urban delivery and short-haul fleets, but peak holiday logistics still fall back on diesel. Cold weather degrades battery range, charging infrastructure becomes congested, and payload constraints matter when volumes surge, issues documented in the U.S. Department of Energy cold-weather EV performance analysis. Even fleets with electric trucks routinely supplement with diesel during the holiday peak. In practice, the system falls back on oil and gas precisely when it is under maximum stress.

From a market perspective, diesel often shows stress before crude does. Brent prices below $60 do not mean the energy system is well supplied. As the IEA’s December oil market report suggests, weak crude prices can sit alongside tight distillate markets, volatile physical premiums, and localized shortages. Christmas makes that disconnect harder to ignore by concentrating demand and removing flexibility from the system.

Thin liquidity makes it worse. Christmas week is notorious for reduced trading activity, even as physical markets are under maximum strain, a dynamic regularly noted in year-end oil market liquidity analysis. Stresses surface first in local premiums, freight rates, and delivery delays rather than in headline futures prices. That is why year-end disruptions often feel sudden: the warning signs are there, but they are outside the most visible benchmarks, so often go unnoticed.

Looking into the New Year, this probably matters more than it usually does. Thin distillate inventories, high export dependence, and limited spare refining capacity suggest diesel markets could remain fragile even if crude stays range-bound, consistent with EIA short-term energy outlook projections. 

While the holiday season doesn’t diesel's vulnerability, it does bring it into full view. Diesel is where we see the stress first. Christmas just narrows the margin a bit more. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 12:35

Poland Intercepts Russian Recon Plane Near Its Airspace On Christmas

Poland said it scrambled fighter jets on Thursday to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying near its airspace over the Baltic Sea, and reported that dozens of objects crossed into the country from Belarus overnight, with some officials saying these are intentional provocations timed during a holiday period.

The Polish military said that jets intercepted, visually identified and escorted the Russian surveillance plane away from their area of responsibility while it was flying over international waters close to Poland's airspace.

Image: AFP

It said in reference to both the aircraft activity and large balloon incursions from Belarus, "the mass nature of the violation of Polish airspace, its occurrence during the special holiday season, the assessment of the Russian aircraft's activity in the ‌Baltic Sea, and the fact that similar incidents have recently occurred in Lithuania, may indicate that this was a provocation disguised as ​a smuggling operation."

NATO countries along the alliance's eastern flank remain on heightened alert after a series of provocative airspace incidents, including an episode in September when three Russian military aircraft entered Estonian airspace for over ten, shortly after more than 20 Russian drones crossed into Poland.

For another example, Lithuania has previously alleged that smuggler balloons originating from Belarus have repeatedly disrupted air traffic, at times forcing the closure of Vilnius airport.

Lithuanian officials claim that the balloons, which are used to transport cigarettes or other non-taxed contraband, amount to a form of "hybrid attack" by Belarus, a close ally and 'Union State' with Russia. However, the Lukashenko government has firmly denied any involvement.

The Polish military has said that as a result of the latest incidents, airspace over parts of the Podlaskie region in northeastern Poland, which borders Belarus, was temporarily closed to civilian flights as a security precaution.

These Eastern European and Baltic countries are trying to coordinate their responses and present a united NATO front. According to Fox, "Polish authorities said the response included support from NATO allies, with Spanish aircraft assisting in air policing and Dutch forces providing air defense systems support."

Some reports have tallied that Russian aircraft or drones have breached eastern European airspace well over a dozen times at this point, since the Ukraine war began.

According to Business Insider, the company Atreyd has sent a "drone wall" to Ukraine for testing, designed to intercept Shaheds and KABs. Thanks to AI, a single operator can control a hundred drones simultaneously. Production is already established in France and Ukraine, and the… pic.twitter.com/jyo9PXQpXT

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 12, 2025

NATO and the European Union have lately said they are working on plans for a 'drone wall' for collective defense along the eastern flank, with an eye on the 'Russian threat' facing European skies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 12:10

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

Excerpt:

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in November

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.58%, up from 0.56% October. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.56% in November 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.58%, up from 0.54% in October. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.53% in November 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Deporting 'Anti-Disinformation' Activist Under Visa Ban

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge granted a temporary injunction on Dec. 25 to block the Trump administration from detaining and deporting Imran Ahmed, an activist among those recently subjected to visa restrictions by the State Department for alleged censorship.

Ahmed, CEO of U.S.-based Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), is a British citizen and a legal permanent resident of the United States.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the visa bans on Dec. 23 while condemning the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), naming several former EU officials, as well as prominent activists who had a part in formulating the DSA.

The announcement followed the EU opening formal proceedings against X under the DSA, alleging “dissemination of illegal content.” U.S. officials decried the move as censorship.

Ahmed sued on Dec. 24 in a bid to stop deportation proceedings, naming Rubio, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Todd Lyons, acting Field Office Director of the New York ICE office Judith Almodovar, and Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Sarah Rogers in the complaint.

Rogers had accused Ahmed of collaborating “with the Biden Administration’s effort to weaponize the government against U.S. citizens” in a social media post on Dec. 23, writing that his organization published the “infamous ‘disinformation dozen’ report” that spurred a campaign to de-platform those questioning the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.

“Leaked documents from CCDH show the organization listed ‘kill Musk’s Twitter,’ and ’trigger EU and UK regulatory action' as priorities,” Rogers wrote.

“The organization supports the UK’s Online Safety Act and EU’s Digital Services Act to expand censorship in Europe and around the world.”

Ahmed argued in his complaint that the sanctions were political retaliation and violated the First Amendment.

“Immigration enforcement—here, immigration detention and threatened deportation—may not be used as a tool to punish noncitizen speakers who express views disfavored by the current administration,” the complaint said.

“Mr. Ahmed’s effort to protect children from social media dangers and harmful hate speech does not present ’serious foreign policy consequences’—any more than do the actions of the United Kingdom and European Union legislators who voted to pass the laws that Secretary Rubio apparently does not like,” the plaintiff argued in a separate court filing.

Ahmed is also arguing a violation of his due process rights under the Fifth Amendment, a violation of immigration laws by tying his speech and views to a cause for deportation, and that the executive branch has exceeded its jurisdiction. The complaint reaffirmed CCDH’s support for the DSA.

U.S. District Judge Vernon Broderick has set a hearing in the case for Dec. 29.

“The Supreme Court and Congress have repeatedly made clear: the United States is under no obligation to allow foreign aliens to come to our country or reside here,” a State Department spokesperson said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 11:20

The $16 Billion Question Haunting Mark Zuckerberg

A new study finds Facebook hosts the vast majority of social media scams, and critics argue it is because Meta prioritizes profit over protecting users, according to the New York Post.

Internal documents obtained by Reuters show Meta projected $16 billion — about 10% of revenue — from scam ads last year. Experts say the company only bans advertisers when its systems detect a 95% probability of fraud, while charging higher ad fees to suspicious buyers, a system critics describe as “pay to play.”

Former California prosecutor Erin West says the documents prove fraud is a “major moneymaker” for Meta. “To know that Facebook is aware of this and they tolerate it — and in fact, they even command additional fees from the worst offenders — is egregious… the practice itself is outrageous, jaw-dropping, unacceptable.”

Data from fraud-reporting firm SafelyHQ shows Facebook is cited in 85% of scam reports that identify a platform, with more than 50,000 verified complaints collected so far. CEO Patrick Quade says the problem is far larger: “For 50,000 people to find us and independently document their losses implies a victim count in the tens of millions… This isn’t ‘cherry-picking’ — it is the overflow of a systemic failure that Meta’s own documents confirm.”

One victim, Brian Kuhn, lost $70 buying records from a fake Facebook sale. “It felt a little creepy that they seemed to know my taste so well… I somehow blame myself equally, but that doesn’t excuse Facebook from allowing the thieves to prey on people.”

The Post writes that lawmakers Josh Hawley and Richard Blumenthal have demanded a federal investigation, writing: “Perversely, Meta reportedly charges higher rates for ads that it suspects might be fraudulent — in effect, imposing a scam tax…”

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone denies the claims, saying: “We aggressively fight fraud and scams… Scammers are persistent criminals…”

Yet internal Meta reports from 2025 found the company was involved in one-third of successful U.S. scams and that it was “easier to advertise scams on Meta platforms than Google.”

Another victim, Betty, who bought counterfeit cosmetics from a Facebook ad, described the platform’s targeting: “You like one thing or look at something or you make a comment about one thing and then these ads appear… Some are really good — they’re fake, but you really can’t tell at first.”

Quade warns that “the ‘fox’ isn’t even guarding the henhouse — it’s charging a toll for other foxes to walk right in… Meta’s system is algorithmically trapping regular citizens in e-commerce scams…”

Consumer Reports and policy experts argue Meta’s protection under Section 230 must be narrowed, especially for paid ads. As Quade concludes, “You can’t let the company profiting from the crime be the one in charge of stopping it.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 10:55

Bitcoin Market Fundamentals "Couldn't Be Better", Says Strategy CEO

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin’s market fundamentals have stayed strong in 2025, despite the asset’s price and sentiment declining toward the end of the year, says Strategy CEO Phong Le.

“The fundamentals of the market this year for Bitcoin couldn’t be better,” Le told the “Coin Stories” podcast on Tuesday, emphasizing that he doesn’t care too much about its short-term performance. 

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, but has since declined nearly 30%, trading at $87,687 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, has shown “Extreme Fear” since Dec. 12.

Le acknowledged that Bitcoin’s price “does what it does” and isn’t always easy to explain. 

“When you’re an investor, you think about the long term of the asset class,” he said. 

Bitcoiners should be “fairly methodical” about short-term price

Le stressed that short-term price action is often unpredictable and Bitcoiners should be “fairly methodical and mathematical about it.” 

“Which is why we focus on things like mNAV, why we built out the Bitcoin treasury and why we built out the US dollar treasury,” he said.

Strategy CEO Phong Le spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Coin Stories

Alongside Bitcoin’s price decline, Strategy’s (MSTR) mNAV, the company’s market value compared to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, has fallen below 1, trading at 0.93, according to Saylor Tracker. The company holds 671,268 Bitcoin worth around $58.63 billion.

Looking at the long-term fundamentals, he pointed to the US government being “fully supportive of Bitcoin like it’s never been before.” 

TradFi is trying to “figure out” how to catch up

Le said that he and Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, have been meeting with traditional banks across the US and UAE, where institutions are trying to figure out how to catch up.

“If you think about what’s happening with traditional powers of the world. The US government, the US banking system, they are all getting on board with Bitcoin,” Le said.

“That’s extremely bullish for this year and 2026,” Le added. While US President Trump signed the executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile in March, a formalized strategic plan has not been confirmed yet. 

Some analysts had forecasted it coming to fruition this year.

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said in September that “there’s a strong chance the US government will announce this year that it has formed the strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 10:30

Joe Biden's Family Christmas Photo Is So Awkward And Wrong

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Yet another Biden family photo has become a punch line on social media, and trust me, this one is a doozy.

Biden shared the image around 9 p.m. on December 24, accompanied by a fairly boilerplate message: “Wishing you a peaceful and joyful Christmas Eve filled with love.

The strange part? You kinda had to play a game of Where's Waldo just to spot him.

Wishing you a peaceful and joyful Christmas Eve filled with love. pic.twitter.com/OB5GouvxTJ

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) December 25, 2025

Hunter Biden and his adult daughter, Maisy, grabbed the prime spots front and center in front of the Christmas tree, whereas Biden is shoved to the back, his face partially hidden behind his wife, Jill Biden. Seven family members made it into the shot, including Joe’s daughter and former showering partner, Ashley—I had to say it—and Hunter’s current wife, Melissa.

Now, one thing is clear from this photo: there was ample room for them to spread out. There was simply no reason for Biden to be pushed to the background. Frankly, it’s bizarre that the supposed patriarch of the family, and, you know, the former president-ish of the United States, ended up tucked in a corner like an afterthought, or like he was being deliberately hidden.

At least Hunter is fully clothed in this photo.

Social media users had a field day with the awkward composition.

I think it’s disrespectful to put the eldest family member in the back of a photo taken for the former president’s social media.

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) December 25, 2025

Where’s Joe?

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) December 25, 2025

Took me a while to find ya, champ. pic.twitter.com/bRoP2dBeFP

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) December 25, 2025

Why are you in the back, blocked by jill

— Official Ohio State DG (@DylanEveryday) December 25, 2025

This Christmas photo follows an unfortunate pattern of Biden appearing lost or hidden in group settings. Back in April 2022, Barack Obama visited the White House when Biden signed yet another Obamacare fix. After the signing, Biden found himself standing alone on stage, practically invisible as Democrats swarmed Obama as if he, not Biden, were the star of the event. Video showed Biden raising his hands in apparent frustration as the crowd ignored him completely.

Then came the April 2025 Easter family photo that sparked its own controversy. Biden appeared awkwardly positioned and formally dressed in a navy suit while everyone else wore casual clothing. His stiff pose and mismatched lighting prompted widespread speculation that he'd been photoshopped into the image.

We wish everyone celebrating today a peaceful and joyful Easter. pic.twitter.com/GQNsdZNaw1

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 20, 2025

Hunter was notably absent from that particular family portrait.

But, back to the Christmas photo.

As Andy Ngo noted, setting aside Biden’s status as the former sort-of president, putting the eldest member of the family in the back of a photo like this is quite disrespectful. I mean, this is the guy whose influence in Washington, D.C. helped enrich the Biden family for years. Put the guy in a chair and have everyone stand around him for crying out loud. That said, Biden has never seemed to command respect from people, whether it’s his own party or, now, apparently, his own family. It’s sad, really.

If this is how Joe Biden is treated for a photo meant to be posted on social media, how badly is he treated in private?

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 09:40

Peace Deal On Horizon? Trump & Zelensky To Meet Sunday

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Mar-a-Lago to talk peace with Russia, Zelensky's top officials have confirmed. Ukraine is touting that a deal is close - and yet outside observers might easily note that huge hurdles remain.

Zelensky also stated on Telegram that "Many things can be decided before the new year." And yet he is still rejecting Russia's main sticking point - the demand to control the entirety of the Donbas region under any final peace settlement. Moscow also wants international legal recognition (and so, from Washington) of the eastern territories as being part of the Russian Federation.

via Associated Press

Some level of progress must have been made in negotiations over the draft - at least from the US point of view - given that Trump said previously he would only meet Zelensky if he felt a deal was close.

Zelensky said Friday morning, "We are not losing a single day. We have agreed on a meeting at the highest level — with President Trump in the near future. A lot can be decided before the New Year."

At the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia had received and reviewed information shared by Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev following his recent talks with the Witkoff-Kushner delegation in Miami. Crucially the latest talks included top negotiators from both Russia and Ukraine directly engaging. 

A senior US official characterized the talks involving envoys Rustem Umerov and Kirill Dmitriev as "positive and constructive."

"We've gone as far as possible with the Russians and the Ukrainians. We've made more progress in the last two weeks than the last year. We want to push the ball into the goal. We're heading in the right direction," the official was quoted in Axios as saying.

Another point of contention between Moscow and Kiev is expected to be the strong security guarantees for Ukraine backed by the West. Zelensky has been pushing that they are akin to NATO's Article 5 - but it's unlikely the Kremlin would go for anything approaching this language. 

Breakthrough on the territory issue? Not likely from Russia's point of view, given that what Zelensky is proposing still sounds like a temporary solution, and not the kind of full, legal, and permanent recognition the Kremlin seeks. Russia has emphasized many times it won't contemplate a merely temporary truce.

Ukraine is ready to withdraw 'heavy forces' from the parts of the Donbas region it still controls if Russia mirrors the pullback as part of a peace deal, the Ukrainian president said. https://t.co/TYR3EghM4f pic.twitter.com/u85fSKR0re

— Financial Times (@FT) December 24, 2025

"The U.S. and Europe will provide Ukraine with security guarantees. If Russia invades Ukraine there will be a military response and sanctions will be reinstated," Zelensky told reporters earlier this week.

As for the still open question of territorial concessions, Zelensky has maintained that if land is given up, then this must be decided by the Ukrainian people in a popular referendum. But of course, the country still hasn't had a single parliamentary or presidential vote since the war began, so it's hard to see how such a referendum would actually happen anytime soon.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 09:15

S&P Futures Trade At Record High As Precious Metal Surge Accelerates

US equity futures are little changed in thin trading with most traders away from the screens, while the bulk of overnight actions was once again in gold and silver as precious metals soared to a new record high driven by feverish Chinese demand. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were flat after closing Wednesday's session at a new record high, while Nasdaq 100 futs were fractionally in the green. Asian markets were mostly higher while European bourses are closed. The dollar was unchanged as were treasuries, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 4.13%. There is no macro on today's calendar. 

In premarket trading, Mah 7 stocks were mixed (Nvidia +0.7%, Tesla +0.2%, Alphabet +0.1%, Apple little changed, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Microsoft -0.2%).

• Miners including Coeur (CDE) and Freeport (FCX) are higher as gold, silver and platinum jumped to all-time highs and copper surged to a record in Shanghai and rallied in New York.
• Biohaven (BHVN) drops 14% after a mid-stage study of the company’s experimental drug BHV-7000 for the treatment of major depressive disorder missed the primary endpoint.
• Coupang (CPNG) gains 6.3% after Yonhap News reported the e-commerce company has identified the former employee who allegedly accessed personal data of 33 million customers; the company has retrieved all hard disk drives and devices that the ex-worker used.

As the Santa Rally accelerates, the MSCI All Country World Index gained 0.1%, rising for a seventh day, while a gauge of Asian stocks climbed 0.2%; Australia, Hong Kong and markets in Europe remain for holidays. Bloomberg’s index of the dollar held near the lowest since October. Treasuries were little changed, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 4.13%. 

Once again, the bulk of the overnight action was in gold and silver, which jumped as escalating geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness helped extend a historic rally for precious metals. Spot silver advanced for a fifth day, climbing as much as 5.2% to cross $75 an ounce for the first time. Gold, set for its best annual advance since 1979, rose as much as 1.2% to above $4,500 an ounce.

Copper surged to a record in Shanghai and rallied in New York, adding to substantial annual gains as investors bet on tighter global supplies in 2026, while also pricing in the impact of a weaker US dollar.

Meanwhile, the “Santa Claus Rally” which we said would be unleashed by Abu Dhabi's bailout of OpenAI's funding plans last week, is set to push stocks to fresh records even as exuberance over artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path are being questioned. The rally is traditionally seen as taking place on the final five trading sessions of a year and the first two of the new one. Of course, the rally can well start early, and it did just that with the S&P 500 rising Wednesday for a fifth day in a shortened session ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

“As equity markets enter the fourth year of a bull market, our underlying market call remains constructive,” Scott Chronert, head of US equities strategy at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note this week. “The current fundamental backdrop clearly has the opportunity for an ongoing AI-related tailwind to large-cap growth.”

After earlier concerns over high valuations for tech stocks amid the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will deliver solid earnings growth in 2026.

European bourses are  closed; Asian stocks extended gains for the week, helped by advances in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, putting the gauge on track for its best week since late November. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the index’s gain. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and Indonesia remained closed for a holiday. Markets fell in Vietnam, Thailand and India.

Tech shares traded higher, amid a year-end rally in US peers, with Samsung Electronics rising to an all-time high. Japanese stocks rose as tech shares and exporters bolstered the indexes, while buying in dividend names also lifted shares. Mainland China shares rose, with gains in stocks related to solar, precious metals, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles boosting the gauge.

“China equity markets enter 2026 with the wind at their back, and new momentum from advanced manufacturing and tech self-sufficiency drivers,” according to a note by UBS CIO. “With domestic investors on board and global investors adjusting their stance, we see more upside ahead, even if occasional volatility and geopolitical squalls lie on the horizon.”

“There were AI-related concerns earlier this month, but those seem to have been digested by the market,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management in Tokyo.

In FX, the yen weakened 0.4% to about 156.44 to the dollar after a report showed Tokyo’s inflation cooled more than expected as pressures from food and energy prices faded. That triggered weakness in the currency on bets the Bank of Japan may push back the timing of its next rate hike. Meanwhile, China set the yuan’s daily reference rate at a level that was below market estimates by a record margin, in the latest sign of policymakers’ intention to slow the currency’s appreciation.

The move came after the offshore yuan advanced past the psychological level of 7 per dollar on Thursday for the first time since September 2024. The PBOC has steered the yuan toward a path of appreciation to appease Beijing’s trading partners, but has sought to maintain a gradual pace of gains to avoid a surge of hot-money inflows.

In commodities, oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since October, as traders tracked a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a terrorist group in Nigeria.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:53

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in this newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI) change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

First a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through Q3 2025:

We don't have the data yet for Q4 2025 yet, but RI as a percent of GDP will likely be down year-over-year.

China Sanctions 20 US Defense Firms, Issues 'Red Line' Warning Over Record Taiwan Arms Deal

After sounding the constant warning that Washington is "playing with fire" in continually arming and supporting self-ruled Taiwan, China's foreign ministry announced Friday new sanctions on ten individuals and 20 American defense companies, mostly notably among them Boeing, specifically in response to American arms sales to Taiwan.

The ministry described that the sanctions freeze any assets that the listed people and firms hold in China and prohibit Chinese organizations and citizens from conducting business with them, and singled out Boeing's St. Louis-based defense branch, Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation and L3Harris Maritime Services - among others.

Also on the list is Palmer Luckey, the founder of defense firm Anduril Industries. The sanctioned executives are barred from traveling to mainland China, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.

Anduril Industries

"In response to the latest US announcement of large-scale arms sales to China’s Taiwan region, China has decided to take countermeasures in accordance with the anti-foreign sanctions law against 20 US defense-related companies and 10 senior executives who have engaged in arming Taiwan in recent years," stated the Chinese foreign ministry.

"Anyone who attempts to cross the line and make provocations on the Taiwan question will be met with China’s firm response… No country or force shall ever underestimate the resolve, will, and ability of the Chinese government and people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," it added.

The ministry described that "movable and immovable properties, and other kinds of assets" of these American firms and individuals within China "shall be frozen."

The punitive measure follows the Trump administration's provocative announcement last week of an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, which is record-setting, confirmed as the largest such US sale to the island to date.

Beijing has said "The Taiwan issue lies at the heart of China’s core interests and represents the first red line in China-U.S. relations that must not be crossed," according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the major arms sales are intended to support Taipei's efforts to "modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability."

The biggest chunks of the package include some $4 billion of Himars truck-based missile launchers, enough for 82 of the advanced systems.

The Himars have enough range to be able to reach targets on China's east coast, which introduces a new level of 'deterrence' from Taipei's and Washington's perspectives.

This revelation that Chinese cargo ships are being set up with sensors and missile launchers is part of a pattern. The CCP is using civilian ships as military. Many ships in the countries fishing fleets have also been militarized.
No tech equipment from China should be trusted.…

— Michael Ron Bowling (@mrbcyber) December 26, 2025

Last week, soon on the heels of this, Beijing issued a blistering statement saying, "The 'Taiwan independence' forces on the island seek independence through force and resist reunification through force, squandering the hard-earned money of the people to purchase weapons at the cost of turning Taiwan into a powder keg."

That prior statement had added, "This cannot save the doomed fate of 'Taiwan independence' but will only accelerate the push of the Taiwan Strait toward a dangerous situation of military confrontation and war. The U.S. support for 'Taiwan Independence' through arms will only end up backfiring. Using Taiwan to contain China will not succeed."

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:25