My end-of-week morning paraskevidekatriaphobia WFH reads:

• The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor: Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend. (Wall Street Journal)

• A Stanford Experiment to Pair 5,000 Singles Has Taken Over Campus: A student built a matchmaking algorithm called Date Drop that has consumed the school—and highlighted the challenges of finding love for high achievers. It has become an all-consuming force on campus, pairing thousands of students every Tuesday night at 9pm. Turns out the best and brightest can crack quantum physics but not “hey, wanna get coffee?” (Wall Street Journal) see also How a Math Genius Hacked OkCupid to Find True: Love Mathematician Chris McKinlay hacked OKCupid to find the woman of his dreams. (Wired)

• Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025 (Liberty Street Economics)

• How the Merrill Lynch deal made Bloomberg: Lessons from The origin story of how a single trade terminal contract with Merrill Lynch transformed Michael Bloomberg’s startup into a financial data empire. Bloomberg-Merrill Lynch in an Anthropic era. (Substack)

• The shadowy world of abandoned oil tankers: Over the past year there has been a big rise in the number of oil tankers and other commercial ships being abandoned around the world by their owners. What is causing the spike? And what is the human impact on the affected merchant sailors? (BBC)

• The secret to happiness? These experts say it’s feeling loved by others. A happiness researcher and a relationship expert teamed up to write about how we can all feel more loved. They argue it’s the key to happiness. (Washington Post)

• The Incompetent Confidence Complex: An Epidemic of Unchecked Incompetence: The intellectual foe of unchecked storytelling is the existence of objective reality. I believe in eternal truths. There are fundamental realities of the cosmology of the universe that are unchanging and fixed realities. But there are very, very few eternal truths. Everything else is pretty darn subject to opinion. (Investing 101 / Substack)

• The Hidden Bias in Language That Turned Left-Handedness Into a Bad Thing: While the days of forcing left-handed children to use their right hands are mostly over, the bias against lefties continues in most languages around the world. The word “sinister” literally means “left.” From Latin roots to modern idioms, language has been quietly slandering lefties for centuries. (Mental Floss)

• Your friends are still acting like everything is normal in America. What do you do? All Americans live in a “dual state.” Here’s what that means — and how to help others see it. (Vox) see also Faced With Trump, Libertarianism Shrugged: The libertarian movement should have been one of the first lines of defense against this aspiring autocrat. It folded instead. (The Bulwark)

• Olympians Can Eat All the Pasta in Italy. So Why Are They Drinking Broccoli? Cross-country skiers are slurping up a potentially performance-enhancing drink of the concentrated vegetable in the hope of speeding up their recovery. https://www.wsj.com/sports/olympics/cross-country-skiing-broccoli-8c706442?st=hSksN9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Heather & Doug Bonaparthe, a married couple who work together and wrote a book on the financial challenges couples face: “Money Together: How to find fairness in your relationship and become an unstoppable financial team.” Our discussion sits somewhere in between financial planning and couples therapy, built around real stories that try to help couples find a healthier approach to money.

 

AI is 3 years old. A majority of Americans say they use it every week

Source: @DKThomp

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The post 10 Friday the 13th Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Inpex Warns Of Looming LNG Crunch in Asia

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

Japan’s Inpex expects an LNG supply shortfall in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia, in 2035, as demand will nearly double from current levels, the oil and gas major said in its 2025 earnings report on Thursday. 

Global LNG demand is expected to increase to about 700 million tons per year in 2035, up from the current level of around 400 million tons annually, according to the Japanese company, which operates the Ichthys LNG project offshore Western Australia.  

“Demand will be concentrated in the Asia–Oceania region, accounting for about 60% of the total,” Inpex said in the outlook to 2035.  

“Supply shortfall is expected in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia,” the company noted in its LNG Supply and Demand Outlook in the report. 

While other regions look sufficiently supplied, the Pacific coastal region could see a supply shortfall of 231 million tons per year in 2035, according to Inpex. 

Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.

The UAE is growing its LNG exports to meet surging global demand that will outpace investment in supply, Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei told Reuters at the end of last year.

“I agree with his excellency, Minister of Qatar, that the demand is going to be much, much more than the projects that we are seeing,” the UAE official added. 

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is QatarEnergy’s CEO as well as the Minister of State for Energy Affairs of Qatar, said in December “I have no worry at all about demand in the future.”

“I have a worry about the lack of investment for additional supply in the future, which will cause prices to spike,” Al-Kaabi added. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 20:05

Two Israelis Arrested, Indicted After Using Classified Iran Info For Polymarket Bets

The Israeli government has announced the arrest and indictment of an IDF military reservist and a civilian with classified clearances who placed bets regarding military operations on the popular Polymarket prediction market.

A joint statement by Shin Bet and the Israeli Police, which teamed up to conduct the investigation, said bets were made "based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed as part of their military duties."

via AFP

Authorities have not confirmed details of the specific bets, but it follows Kan News first reporting suspicions that officials within the defense ministry had leveraged classified information to profit on Polymarket.

At least one of the accused reportedly bet on the timing of Israel's opening strike on Iran in last June's 12-day war. The indictments mention "serious security offenses" as well as bribery and obstruction of justice.

According to the Times of Israel, one of the men netted about $150,000 based on the insider knowledge:

Last month, Kan said a user who went by the name ricosuave666 placed several bets in June 2025 with suspicious accuracy regarding Israeli military operations in Iran, wagering tens of thousands of dollars and making a profit of around $150,000.

While not identifying the men, the defense ministry and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a lengthy statement.

"The defense establishment emphasizes that engaging in such betting activities, based on secret and classified information, poses a substantial security risk to IDF operations and to the security of the state," the statement indicated.

An IDF spokesperson continued, "The IDF views with utmost severity any act that endangers the security of the state, particularly the use of highly classified information for the purpose of personal gain."

The IDF called it a "grave ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line," and indicated that "In response to the incident, measures have been taken and procedures will be reinforced across all IDF units to prevent similar cases from recurring."

There have been several similar 'insider betting' scandals in the United States related to fast-moving geopolitical events, for example involving the timing of the Trump-ordered Venezuela military operation. Red flags have even been raised surrounding the Super Bowl halftime show:

Earlier this year, an anonymous bettor on Polymarket perfectly predicted the US invasion of Venezuela mere hours before over 150 US aircraft rocked the country’s capital of Caracas, netting them over $400,000.

The incident reignited a heated debate over insider trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. While the act is strictly forbidden on Wall Street, prediction markets are currently operating in a regulatory vacuum, allowing those who enjoy insider status to score big — while everyone else is left to pick up the bill.

And the evidence that prediction markets are rife with insider traders continues to grow. As one eagle-eyed Reddit user noticed, an anonymous day-old Polymarket account correctly guessed 17 out of around 20 bets about Sunday’s Super Bowl half-time show.

Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl.

Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas

1. @Kalshi - $871M
2. @Polymarket - $312M
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M
4. @predictdotfun - $31M
5. @Novig - $19M
6. @SX_Bet - $5M
7. @Overtime_io - $443K

— MovieTime (@MovieTimeDev) February 10, 2026

"All told, they made about $17,000 in profit," the report observes, and points to the extreme unlikelihood, statistically-speaking, in getting 17 out of the 20 bets exactly right.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:40

American Colleges Received $5.2 Billion In Foreign Funding In 2025, Education Department Reveals

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American colleges and universities received more than $5.2 billion in reportable foreign gifts and contracts last year through more than 8,300 transactions, the Department of Education said in a Feb. 11 statement.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus in Cambridge, Mass., on May 25, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

The database was compiled from foreign funding disclosures submitted by educational institutions. Such disclosures are mandated by Section 117 of the Higher Education Act, which obligates universities and colleges receiving federal funding to annually disclose gifts and contracts from foreign sources valued at $250,000 or more.

The top recipient of foreign funds last year was Carnegie Mellon University, which received almost $1 billion. This was followed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also at nearly $1 billion, Stanford University, which got more than $775 million, and Harvard University, which received more than $324 million, the department said.

Qatar was the biggest foreign source of reported gifts and contracts, pouring more than $1 billion into U.S. educational institutions last year. This was followed by the United Kingdom at more than $633 million, China at more than $528 million, Switzerland with $451 million plus, Japan with $374 million, Germany at more than $292 million, and Saudi Arabia spending more than $285 million.

The data has been made available for public inspection via the foreign funding higher education platform launched earlier this year by the Trump administration. The information is based on reports through Dec. 16, 2025.

Between 1986, when Section 117 was included in the Act, and Dec. 16, 2025, a total of $67.6 billion in foreign funding had been reported across 555 institutions, data from the platform show.

Qatar also topped the aggregate list of foreign funding sources at $7.7 billion, followed by China at $6.4 billion, and Germany at $4.7 billion.

The top recipient during this period was Harvard, which received $4.2 billion in foreign funding. Carnegie Mellon University came in second at $3.9 billion, followed by MIT with $3.5 billion.

In this multidecade period, Harvard was also the top recipient of funds from parties located in “countries of concern,” at $610 million. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology was second, receiving more than $490 million, while New York University received more than $462 million to hit the third spot.

Foreign countries of concern include China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, and other nations determined as such by the Department of State.

“Thanks to the Trump Administration’s new accountability portal, the American people have unprecedented visibility into the foreign dollars flowing into our colleges and universities—including funding from countries and entities that are involved in activities that threaten America’s national security,” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said.

“This marks a new era of transparency for the American people and streamlined compliance for colleges and universities, making it easier than ever for institutions to meet their legal obligations.”

In April 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on transparency regarding foreign influence at American universities.

The order instructed the education secretary to ensure robust enforcement of foreign funding reporting at higher educational institutions to prevent harm to American interests.

“It is the policy of my Administration to end the secrecy surrounding foreign funds in American educational institutions, protect the marketplace of ideas from propaganda sponsored by foreign governments, and safeguard America’s students and research from foreign exploitation,” the order said.

Investigations and Lawsuits

In its latest statement, the Department of Education said it had initiated four Section 117 investigations since the start of the Trump administration amid reports of “inaccurate and untimely foreign source gift and contract disclosures.”

The universities subject to the probe were Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Michigan, and the University of California–Berkeley.

In addition to Section 117 enforcement, the Trump administration has engaged in legal conflicts with universities over various policies.

In July 2025, the administration withheld $584 million in research funds from the University of California–Los Angeles (UCLA), alleging that the institution failed to tackle anti-Semitism as well as discriminatory admission practices.

A lawsuit was filed in September 2025 by associations and labor groups representing employees at the university’s 10 campuses, alleging violation of First Amendment rights. In November 2025, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration from cutting federal funding to the university.

Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration in April, seeking to restore $2.2 billion in contracts and grants withheld by the government.

A federal judge reversed the funding freeze, highlighting that the government violated First Amendment rights while pushing forward its efforts to counter anti-Semitism. The Department of Justice appealed the decision in December 2025.

On Feb. 2, Trump announced that his administration would seek $1 billion in damages from Harvard, calling the university “strongly anti-Semitic.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:15

Confirmed: US Covertly Sent Thousands Of Starlink Terminals Into Iran Amid Unrest

The Trump administration has confirmed what was already long suspected -the US sent Iranian protesters thousands of Starlink terminals amid last month's raging economic protests and unrest.

The mainstream media had claimed the whole time that the demonstrations were both purely peaceful and completely spontaneous, but a Thursday Wall Street Journal piece greatly muddies this MSM narrative.

Source: Getty Images

"After Iranian authorities smothered mounting unrest in January by killing thousands of protesters and severely cutting internet connectivity, the U.S. smuggled roughly 6,000 of the satellite-internet kits into the country, the first time the U.S. has directly sent Starlink into Iran," WSJ writes.

This also contradicts earlier claims from weeks ago that it was merely activist non-profit NGO groups which got a small amount of Starlink systems to protesters. That was perhaps the 'cover' narrative. But later it became evident the SpaceX-made comms equipment was more ubiquitous.

Skeptical observers questioned how that amount of sophisticated equipment could so easily get across Iran's borders at a moment security forces were on a high state of alert. They concluded, reasonably, that it must have had the involvement of Western intelligence services.

“The State Department had purchased nearly 7,000 Starlink terminals in earlier months—with most bought in January—to help antiregime activists circumvent internet shut-offs in Iran, officials said.” https://t.co/1Hmx3QNQCR

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) February 12, 2026

WSJ tries to tiptoe around the obvious contradictions:

President Trump was aware of the deliveries, officials said, but they didn’t know if he or someone else directly approved of the plan.

Tehran has repeatedly accused Washington, without evidence, of playing a role in fomenting popular dissent and organizing last month’s nationwide demonstrations in the country of 90 million people. Iranians were protesting years of economic mismanagement, a weakening currency and hard-line rule.

The U.S. has denied any connection to the uprising, though the Starlink operation shows the Trump administration has done more to support antiregime efforts than has been previously known.

The publication brazenly claims the accusations of an external hidden hand are "without evidence" while in the very next stanza admitting a direct connection, and then seeking to downplay it.

Trump had even in real-time repeatedly said "help is on the way" - even as dozens or possibly hundreds among the dead and injured were police officers and among security forces. This showed some level of an armed element mixed into the destabilizing demonstrations.

Starlink devices, clearly present during the protests given local photo and video evidence, are illegal in Iran and authorities are still trying to uncover and hunt down presumed smuggling networks.

Russian media taking note of the emerging story:

US SMUGGLED 1,000S of Starlink terminals into IRAN after protests erupted — WSJ report

In 'an effort to keep dissidents ONLINE'

'Provided covert support' to RIOTERS pic.twitter.com/s6tEezhtJA

— RT (@RT_com) February 12, 2026

The State Dept has been calling its ongoing purchases of Starlink terminals for Iran part of an 'internet freedom' initiative, but if the situation were reversed, Washington obviously wouldn't stand for it. It is easy to imagine American outrage in the scenario where Iran was the one issuing communications equipment to anti-Trump protesters in the US on a mass scale, for example.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:50

Half Of Gen Z Brings Parents To Job Interviews: Survey

Authored by Oscar Mackey via The College Fix,

80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once...

Over 50% of college-age job seekers had their parents sit with them at an in-person interview, a January survey by Resume Templates found.  What’s more, over 35% of surveyed individuals reported parents either writing a cover letter or performing a test assignment for them.  

Julia Toothacre, a career coach and chief career strategist at the survey group, said she had never seen parents this involved in their child’s job searches in the past. 

“When I was doing career development at the college level, we would see parents come in to talk about majors and sometimes career choices, but they weren’t sitting in on interviews or communicating with managers,” Toothacre told The College Fix in a recent interview via email.

When asked what she believed caused this trend, Toothacre replied, “I think COVID played a larger role in this parental involvement than many people want to admit.” 

She elaborated:

“Right now, one of the main factors is the unpredictable market. I think parents are seeing how difficult it’s been to get hired and how many entry-level and early-career positions are being replaced with AI or simply being limited. 

“Second, I believe this generation, while more emotionally aware, also experiences greater anxiety than previous generations. Couple that with living through COVID during formative years, and there is going to be a portion of this generation that feels like they need additional support,” Toothacre told The Fix.

The survey polled young adults ages 18-23.  

Parental involvement in this survey was defined as “the actions a parent took for their child during the job search process.”

The young adults surveyed reported parental involvement was often repeated.  They also said parents submitted applications (64%), completed test assignments (51%), and sat in on in-person interviews (51%). 

Additionally, 80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once, including 67% who reported multiple instances.  During these interactions, the most common topic was their schedule or hours (58%), and the second most common was workplace accommodations (38%).  

What’s more, young men were more likely to report repeated involvement by their parents than young women: 70% of men said their parents submitted an application for them compared to 59% of women.  Young men also reported a similar trend in parents writing emails (61% vs. 52%) and joining multiple in-person interviews (57% vs. 47%).

The career service group also polled 181 parents in a separate survey. A majority of the parents said their involvement was requested by their child, and their reasons for doing tasks on their child’s behalf included a difficult job market, inexperience, and anxiety.  

According to the parents surveyed, 71% reported their adult child requesting help, while 25% offered help.  

When asked about the survey, Lenore Skenazy, a journalist and founder of Let Grow, a movement advocating for child independence, said parents to step back and let their children learn more on their own. Speaking with The Fix in a recent phone interview, she said doing so encourages resilience and independence. 

“It’s a natural impulse, helping our kids,” Skenazy said. 

And while it’s good for young adults to ask for help, she said parents also need to let their children step up. The older children become, the more parents need to trust them to do things on their own, Skenazy said.

A 2024 survey by Resume Templates found similar results with one in four young adults saying they brought their parents to a job interview, The Fix reported previously.

“[I]t’s becoming clear that constant adult supervision and intervention are hurting young people. This over-assistance is undermining their self-confidence and competence,” Skenazy told The Fix at the time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:25

India's Richest Man Sees Company Shares Dip After OFAC Request On Iranian LPG Allegations

Shares of Adani Enterprises Ltd fell as much as 3.5% in Mumbai earlier this week before trimming losses, after the company disclosed that a US agency has sought information over alleged imports of Iranian petroleum products.

In a stock exchange filing, the flagship of the Adani Group said it received a request on Feb. 4 from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), according to Telegraph India and Bloomberg.

The outreach followed voluntary discussions the company initiated after a June 2025 Wall Street Journal report that claimed Adani-linked firms may have brought Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) into India, potentially exposing transactions to US sanctions risk.

The company said OFAC is conducting a civil inquiry into certain transactions routed through US financial institutions that may have involved, directly or indirectly, Iran or sanctioned parties. It emphasized that the communication “does not contain any findings of aberrations/non-compliances” and that it is “voluntarily engaging and fully co-operating” with the US authority.

The Journal had reported that US prosecutors were examining whether companies controlled by billionaire Gautam Adani imported Iranian LPG through Mundra port in Gujarat. It also said some tankers operating between Mundra and the Persian Gulf displayed characteristics experts associate with sanctions evasion. Purchases of Iranian oil and related products are restricted under US sanctions tied to Tehran’s nuclear programme.

At the time, the conglomerate described the allegations as “baseless and mischievous” and said it “categorically denies any deliberate engagement in sanctions evasion or trade involving Iranian-origin LPG.” The group added that it does not handle cargo from Iran at its ports or manage vessels owned by Iranian entities.

Adani Enterprises said the matter has no financial impact. LPG contributed 1.46% of the company’s revenue and about 0.5% of overall group revenue in the fiscal year ended March 2025. It added that it halted all LPG imports from June 2, 2025, out of “abundant caution.”

The inquiry comes as the group continues to face scrutiny in the US, including a separate bribery probe and earlier allegations of stock manipulation and accounting irregularities by short seller Hindenburg Research in 2023, claims the conglomerate has denied.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:00

China's Central Bank Keeps Buying Gold... And Dumping US Debt

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

China’s ferocious appetite for gold is influencing the global metals market, and that demand is what will keep driving up metal prices, according to Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital.

The People’s Bank of China’s gold holdings totaled 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million in the previous month, according to recent central bank data.

Beijing’s value of gold reserves also surged to $369.58 billion, from $319.45 billion in December 2025.

Gold accounts for almost 9 percent of China’s total reserves, the World Gold Council estimates.

The metals market has been on a roller coaster ride over the past few months.

Gold prices are currently trading at about $5,000 per ounce—up by 17 percent this year—on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is hovering at about $80 per ounce. The white metal has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $121.

The commodities boom will continue, with a focus on oil and gold, Howell said in a recent interview with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “California Insider.”

Global financial markets are experiencing a commodities boom, particularly in industrials, which coincides with the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. At the same time, Howell said, energy is also witnessing a dramatic increase.

“Stronger economic activity worldwide will elevate oil prices from their current subdued levels,” he said. “Gold has had a tremendous rally over the last 18 months. It’s defied most predictions, but it continues to go up.”

China is playing an outsized role in its meteoric ascent.

Although retail traders are fueling sizable inflows into gold investments, China has been on a gold-buying spree for years as part of the country’s de-dollarization efforts.

For more than a decade, Beijing has been diversifying its foreign exchange reserves to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar and American assets, particularly Treasury securities.

In October, China’s holdings of U.S. debt fell to $688.7 billion, down by nearly 10 percent from the previous year, according to Treasury Department data.

Reports have surfaced that Chinese regulators have advised banks to trim their holdings of U.S. government bonds because of market volatility. Whether this shows up in the data over the coming months could further cement China’s long-term plans to ditch the dollar and remain in gold.

Influential Force in Gold Markets

As China remains one of the world’s largest buyers, it will also maintain an immense influence in global gold markets, according to Howell.

“The reason gold is going up is because of what’s happening in China,” he said.

It is no secret that China has largely shaped the global metals market through physical demand, whether through industrial consumption or retail use.

But recent activity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates that Beijing is also influencing prices, said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.

“Rising turnover and open interest signal a greater role for speculative positioning in driving momentum, and notably, key price breaks in gold and silver have increasingly occurred during Asian hours, with Europe and the US following rather than leading,” Manthey said in a Feb. 6 research note.

Domestic investors are increasingly turning to commodity futures to express macro views and hedge risks, as property markets are weak, equities are uneven, and capital outflows face tighter controls, according to Manthey.

In this environment of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, metals—across the base and precious spectrum—have become a more prominent alternative investment channel.

Gold trading at a premium in China sends various signals to global markets, mainly the sign that domestic stockpiling is underway. This, Manthey said, sends the message that supplies are tightening and worldwide availability could be tightening.

Although fundamentals trump short-term speculative forces in precious metals, influential noise can trigger greater volatility and abrupt, sharper price corrections.

The Great Debasement

One long-term factor supporting the bullish case for gold is money printing.

Over the years, China has frequently engaged in monetary debasement through aggressive stimulus programs.

Howell estimates that officials have injected more than $1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system to prop up the world’s second-largest economy amid diminished household demand, trade strife, and slowing factory activity. At the same time, China is grappling with enormous debt.

“China’s probably got the biggest problem of the lot, because it’s still sitting on that huge real estate debt which has been saddling the economy,” Howell said.

Although Evergrande and Country Garden have not captured international attention lately, the fallout of China’s real estate bubble burst persists, featuring a mountain of red ink.

Today, China’s general government debt accounts for more than 100 percent of gross domestic product, reflecting the years-long dependence on credit-fueled growth.

The only solution for the authorities to prevent a debt-fueled crisis is to print money, according to Howell. Although defaults are one strategy, they would inevitably destroy the credit system.

“So what happens is central banks come in, and they print money, and that is the solution to every financial crisis you can think of going backwards, and that will be the solution to future financial crises,” Howell said.

“Given the fact that the debt levels are rising remorselessly year after year after year, politicians are kicking the can down the road,” he said. “They’ve got no appetite to control spending, and they just think the easy way out is either take on more debt or print money.”

At a time when assets have become the go-to investment for institutional investors and armchair traders, one of the most important strategies is to refrain from selling gold.

“You don’t want to be selling gold right now,” he said. “Strategically, you’ve got to hold gold.”

Good as Gold

In 10 years, gold could reach $10,000 per ounce, according to Howell—and he is not the only one presenting a bullish prognostication.

Yardeni Research forecasts $10,000 by the end of the decade.

“This is all happening because rising geopolitical tensions are driving a military arms race, and defense companies need metals to increase their output,” Yardeni Research said in a Jan. 25 research note.

“Also boosting metals prices is the geopolitical AI arms race, which is escalating capital spending on technology.”

Meanwhile, “deep currents” are supporting gold’s rally, such as U.S. deficit spending and central bank buying, said David Miller, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.

“These are very powerful forces and will likely drive gold significantly higher over the next three, five, or even [10] years,” Miller said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:40

US Forces Pull Out Of Syria's Tanf Base, Hand Over To Jolani Regime

After many years of being there, American forces have withdrawn from the Al-Tanf Garrison, a base in southern Syria near the borders of Iraq and Jordan, according to fresh reporting in AFP.

US troops had long operated out of Tanf to pressure the Assad government as part of the long-running US-backed regime change project. The US primarily trained the Syrian Free Army (FSA) in that remote desert area - which was an umbrella group of various factions, likely among them jihadists, armed and funded by Washington.

Wiki Commons

A Syrian military source told AFP and other international outlets Wednesday that the "American forces withdrew entirely from Al-Tanf base today" and relocated to a Jordan base.

The report said that Syrian military personnel replaced the US forces - but that the Pentagon will "continue to coordinate with the base in Al-Tanf from Jordan."

So after over a decade-long proxy war, the bearded 'ISIS-lite' jihadists of Jolani/Sharaa's army were just handed an American base overnight. Perhaps that was the plan all along. Al Jazeera provides further confirmation:

Syrian ⁠forces ⁠have taken control of the strategic al-Tanf military base near the border with Iraq and Jordan, the Syrian defense ministry has said, amid the withdrawal of a longstanding United States troop presence at the base.

The ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Syrian Arab Army units had taken control of al-Tanf, securing the base and its surroundings, "through coordination between the Syrian and American sides".

Army units had "begun deploying along the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian" border nearby, the ministry said, while border guards would be deployed in the coming days.

It was only in December that an insider attack took place in the central town of Palmyra, resulting two US soldiers and a civilian killed. Washington tried to pass it off as a "lone ISIS gunman" but the Syrian government itself admitted the attacker belonged to their security forces.

US officials have admitted to The Wall Street Journal that post-Assad Syrian Army is "riddled with jihadist sympathizers, including soldiers with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS and others who have been involved in alleged war crimes against the Kurds and Druze."

In northeastern Syria, a place where most US troops are based, there have been signs of large-scale withdrawal into Iraq over the last several weeks.

This has been extremely controversial as the US-backed Kurds and SDF forces have been attacked as Damascus forces move in. The Kurds are once again being thrown under the bus, with no support, after having been armed and trained by Washington for much of the last decade. Abandonment of the stateless Kurds has been a clear pattern over time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:20

Victor Hanson On Our Super Bowl Satyricon

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

In recent years, Americans have known what to expect from our Neronian Super Bowl halftime shows: mediocre music veneered over with gaudy, flashily lit, but ultimately empty and meaningless sets.

As seen again this year, the usual array of supporting dancers twerk and simulate intercourse, in sync with the main singer, mindlessly grabbing his/her genitals—apparently to highlight the explicit sexual allusions of mostly nonsensical lyrics.

For some strange reason, this Roman orgiastic ritual is supposedly designed by the NFL each year to appeal to American families of all ages as they gather together around the living room TV on their festive cultural holiday.

But the script has now grown predictable and trite. This year’s mess jumped the shark and had a force-multiplying boring effect on one of the most tedious Super Bowl games in history.

The decision to have Bad Bunny as the main attraction to sing solely in Spanish—only 14 percent of the U.S. population is fluent in Spanish, while 90 percent is proficient in English—was apparently designed to grow the NFL’s global audience, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, or perhaps to shock America to get accustomed to its new official multilingual identity.

Yet of the anticipated 60 million Americans who likely watched this flat show, more than 50 million of them could neither read nor comprehend Spanish.

And they had previously been insulted by Bunny to hurry up and learn Spanish before the game—or else?

How odd that America provides translations of every conceivable language in its courts, hospitals, and schools for minorities of non-English-speaking residents. And yet at its annual signature sporting event, the marquee and main-event non-English speaker would not even provide translations for the vast majority of the viewing population.

Part of the hype of Bunny’s appearance was his supposedly edgy decision to perform entirely in Spanish. But was that really so avant-garde?

What would have been far more against-the-grain and bold for Bad Bunny would have been to find some way to reconnect with the millions of disenchanted families who simply wish a hiatus from the monotonously gross and politicized Super Bowl bacchanalias.

Most in the stadium had no idea what Bad Bunny was singing about, if we can call his nonstop talking and mumbling true music.

Fortunately for Bunny, that language barrier turned out to be about the only good thing about the entire Sunday disaster.

Most of Bunny’s lyrics were raunchy and demented, and likely out-Epsteined the imagination of the late Jeffrey Epstein.

In his vile, obscene “Safaera,” to avoid being censored, Bunny omitted a few of the song’s lyrics about his celebration of exploitative sodomy, fellatio, and anilingus—with misogynistic trashing of his compliant female sexual partners as “hoes.”

(Do woke intersectional feminists weigh in on the side of Bunny’s DEI credentials and sexual fluidity, or do they bristle at Bunny’s “objectification” of women, as he reduces them to mere mindless receptacles of violent and toxic masculinity?).

If Bunny’s purpose was to shock America, then he should have sung his full lyrics of “Safaera” in English, ensuring that his first-time listeners were forced to hear and react to his sick adolescent riffs on breasts, bottoms, phalluses, and vaginas.

Bunny had been previously instructed not to repeat his prior performance-art trashing of ICE and to keep his politicking subtle and coded.

Translated, that meant the NFL had greenlighted some of his obscene references as long as they were relegated to a Spanish-speaking audience only and toned down a bit. But he was not overtly to alienate over half of the NFL’s viewership, who not long ago had voted to stop illegal immigration and millions crashing the border.

Bunny mostly complied, albeit with empty platitudes about hate and love, and reducing the American flag to a status similar to that of the other South and Central American states.

Ricky Martin chimed in with his own incoherent Spanish-language harangue about the American rape of paradise in Hawaii (“They want to take my river and my beach too/They want my neighborhood and grandma to leave”).

If Martin’s point was the arrival of too many newcomers, then he might have first reflected on the 10-million uninvited illegal aliens who, during the Biden tenure, stormed America’s southern border.

A writer for the now-defunct sports section of the Washington Post had earlier and ludicrously boasted that the mostly forgotten Colin Kaepernick—the Dylan Mulvaney of the NFL—would be the most relevant figure at the 2026 Super Bowl.

Perhaps he was—if the writer meant by “relevant” the narcissistic Kaepernick’s past popularizing of taking-the-knee during the National Anthem.

That antic likely reduced NFL viewership by 25 percent in 2016-2017, and turned Sunday afternoons into racial psychodramas with two race-coded National Anthems.

In sum, last Sunday was the same old, same old Super Bowl Satyricon.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:00

Dollar Detente? Kremlin Memo Explores Rejoining US-Led Financial System

The Kremlin apparently has a highly ambitious proposal for finally mending relations with the United States and wooing the Trump administration to its side regarding resolution to the Ukraine war.

It centers on Russia weighing a return to the dollar-based settlement system as part of a broader economic reset with the White House, according to an internal Kremlin memo reviewed by Bloomberg.

via Shutterstock 

The high-level document drafted this year lays out seven sectors where Russian and US economic interests could converge in the aftermath of a Ukraine war settlement.

One central item is the call for pivoting back to fossil fuels over green energy, expanding joint ventures in natural gas and offshore oil, while partnering on critical minerals - with significant upside for American firms.

The partnership would include, per the Bloomberg report:

1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels

2. Joint investments in natural gas

3. Offshore oil and critical raw material partnerships

4. Windfalls for US companies

5. Russia's return to the USD settlement system

The memo was reportedly circulated among senior Russian officials and would mark a dramatic and sharp reversal from the Kremlin's de-dollarization push, with obvious major implications for global financial flows.

It's as yet unclear if the proposals have been formally presented to the US side - it seems unlikely at this stage - given Ukraine-focused talks have really gone nowhere of late.

All of the above seems a pipe dream if the basic issues at play stoking the Ukraine conflict can't be resolved. Chief among them remains territorial concessions, Ukraine's NATO and EU ambitions, and the fate of Russia's frozen sovereign assets in Europe.

President Putin has repeatedly slammed the US for weaponizing the dollar as a tool to pressure other countries, through sanctions and other methods of economic isolation. But he also point out this 'strategic mistake' is backfiring while in reality slowly weakening the dollar and eroding global confidence.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov has yet to comment. In Moscow, is the discussion that BRICS de-dollarization us now a dead game?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 16:40

Senate Blocks DHS Bill As Shutdown Looming Intensifies

Update (1555ET): The Senate has failed to pass legislation that would pass the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) just one day before it's set to run out of money.

52 senators voted for a procedural step to advance a full-year spending bill, falling 8 votes short of the 60-vote filibuster threshold. 47 senators opposed it. 

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) notably sided with Republicans in support of the measure, while Thune (R-SD) switched his vote to a 'no' as a procedural move to allow him to bring it up again. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, the appropriations bill passed the House in January before it returned to the Senate ahead of a funding deadline at the end of that month.

A standoff over immigration law enforcement funding there, touched off in the aftermath of the shooting of two protesters in Minneapolis, triggered a partial government shutdown involving five other spending bills. That lapse continued until Feb. 3.

While the five other spending bills ultimately passed both chambers, DHS was funded through a short-term continuing resolution that is set to end on Feb. 13, giving lawmakers a small window to reach a deal.

That deadline comes just ahead of Presidents Day and scheduled breaks in the House and Senate next week.

Soon after that deal was announced, some lawmakers were already forecasting another lapse in funding.

“I think DHS is going to stay shut down for a while,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) predicted to reporters on Feb. 4.

The Senate has taken the lead in negotiations that have involved the White House.

Ahead of the vote on Feb. 12, Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said on the Senate floor that the White House had sent Democrats “an extremely serious offer” on Feb. 11.

Democrats have generally been resistant to overtures from Republicans, hewing to a list of demands that include stepped-up warrant requirements for immigration law enforcement and a virtual end to the masking of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and other federal agents.

After border czar Tom Homan announced on Feb. 12 that the administration’s immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota was ending, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) suggested that was not enough.

“Regardless of what Tom Homan says, ICE’s abuses cannot be solved merely through executive fiat alone,” Schumer said on the floor of the Senate.

With the fast deadline approaching, Thune said that “the onus is on Democrats” to agree to an additional funding patch.

In a press conference that same day, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said that “funding for ICE and the Department of Homeland Security should not move forward in the absence of dramatic changes that are bold, meaningful, and transformational,” adding that the House and Senate Democrats are aligned on the issue.

Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) voiced frustration about the state of DHS negotiations.

“There are a lot of agencies in DHS that Americans depend on,” Obernolte told reporters after a Feb. 12 vote in the House.

He cited the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Transportation Security Administration, as well as the Secret Service.

Obernolte noted that ICE has ample funding for years thanks to last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

*  *  *

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives passed the SAVE America Act by a margin of 218-213. The bill would require proof of citizenship to register to vote as well as photo ID to vote in federal elections. One Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, joined Republicans in voting for it, while one R and one D did not vote. 

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, is leading the push in the Senate to pass voter ID legislation and is pitching multiple paths that Republicans could take to do it.  (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Sadly for anyone who values election integrity, Senate Republicans need 60 votes to pass it, and there "aren't anywhere close to the votes" according to Majority Leader John Thune (SD). Thune says he supports the SAVE Act, but he's not about to change the Senate rules to create a pathway to passing it - and that his position is widely supported among the Senate Republican Conference. 

"It’s not just me not being willing to do it. There aren’t anywhere close to the votes, not even close, to nuking the filibuster," he said of a proposal to lower the threshold for advancing legislation to a simple majority by voting along partisan lines to establish new precedent - effectively changing the Senate's rules with what is known as "the nuclear option," The Hill reports.

"We’re having a very robust conversation among our Senate Republican colleagues about the path forward. I think most are supporters … I certainly am — of the SAVE Act and what it attempts to accomplish," Thune told reporters following the meeting. "You ought to be able to prove that you’re a citizen of this country in order to be able to vote. How we get to that vote remains to be seen," he said. 

According to Thune, however, the nuclear option "doesn’t have a future. Is there another way of getting there? We’ll see."

Meanwhile, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) is pushing for a 'standing filibuster' to try and pass it, and implored the Senate GOP conference on Tuesday to interpret the current Senate rules to require Democrats to continuously hold the floor with active debate to block the SAVE Act.

"Nothing in the Senate's an easy move," Lee said after the meeting. "This one's certainly not. But if we want to do this, this is how we have to go about it."

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) told Fox News that Republicans would continue to press the issue.

"To get on an airplane you need a photo ID. You want to buy a beer at a football game? You need a photo ID. Go to the library, you need a photo ID for just about everything," he said. "And now you see Democrats are demanding photo IDs to go to any meetings that they have, and we just saw that in Georgia."

DHS Shutdown On Deck...

Meanwhile, the vast majority of the Department of Homeland Security are set to shut down Saturday unless lawmakers can strike a last-minute deal to fund the agency. Democrats have vowed to oppose any legislation that doesn't include restrictions on immigration enforcement - and have provided a laundry list of demands after federal immigration agents killed two protesters last month in Minneapolis. The White House is reportedly open to some of the ideas, however, no agreement has been reached by lawmakers. 

On Wednesday night, the White House sent a detailed proposal to Democrats, WaPo reports, however it's unclear what their response was. 

"If they don’t add things that will rein in ICE, they are not getting our votes," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters Wednesday prior to receiving the White House proposal. 

Any last-minute deal would also require the House to pass it, which might be difficult in itself after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said that Democrats won't support any DHS funding bill that doesn't include "dramatic changes" to the agency. 

That said, a shutdown won't disrupt ICE or US Customs and Border Protection operations because Republicans allocated tens of billions of dollars in additional funding last year for padding. Instead, the Transportation Security Administration, FEMA, Coast Guard and other agencies within DHS will be directly affected, equating to roughly 13% of the federal civilian workforce, according to DHS / OPM data. 

"The pain will be felt by the men and women of TSA, who will once again work to keep our airways safe without a paycheck," Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) told WaPo on Wednesday. "There will be uncertainty for our Coast Guard men and women — who have no choice but to show up for work. … It will reduce the amount of funding in the Disaster Relief Fund — just weeks after massive winter storms affected wide swaths of the country."

The Senate is expected to vote today to take up legislation to fund DHS through Sept. 30. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 15:53

Federal Judge Blocks Hegseth's Censure Of Sen. Mark Kelly

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has blocked Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s censure of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), halting a process that could lower the senator’s military rank and benefits.

“This Court has all it needs to conclude that Defendants have trampled on Senator Kelly’s First Amendment freedoms and threatened the constitutional liberties of millions of military retirees,” U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled on Feb. 12.

“To say the least, our retired veterans deserve more respect from their Government, and our Constitution demands they receive it!”

Kelly, a retired Navy Captain, came under fire when he and four other lawmakers recorded a video last November telling members of the military that they should disobey any “unlawful” orders they received.

On Jan. 5, Hegseth issued a letter censuring Kelly, saying his actions “undermined the chain of command,” “counseled disobedience,” and constituted “conduct unbecoming an officer.” He also posted on X that he initiated proceedings to reduce Kelly’s military rank and retirement pay because of “seditious” conduct.

That letter said Kelly—as a retired officer still receiving pay—was in violation of Articles 133 and 134 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, which deal with punishing an officer for unbecoming conduct.

Kelly sued Hegseth and the Department of War, alleging that the censure sought to “chill” his free speech rights by threatening punishment. He also alleged that Hegseth was violating the separation of powers by interfering with the speech of a sitting Congressman.

Justice Department attorney John Bailey argued that the case was not ready for the district court yet because Kelly had not exhausted all the administrative appeals available to him.

Before issuing his ruling, Leon had pointed out that while the Uniform Code of Military Justice does impose certain limits on the free speech of active military, it has never been applied to retired service members.

He challenged the government’s attorney to produce a single case where that had occurred.

“You’re asking me to do something the Supreme Court has never done, or the DC Circuit,” Leon said during a hearing on Feb. 3. “That’s a bit of a stretch, isn’t it?”

Kelly’s attorney, Ben Mizer, said the senator didn’t need to wait for the censure before seeking relief. Even an appeal before a military board would be useless, he said, since Hegseth would have the final say, and had “abundantly demonstrated bias” through his X posts.

Bailey countered that, despite Hegseth’s public statements, the outcome of such a hearing was uncertain, and any violation of Kelly’s First Amendment rights was still “abstract and unmaterialized.”

Leon soundly rejected that last argument, writing that Kelly was already suffering “immediate irreparable harm” because of the infringement of his First Amendment rights.

The ruling comes shortly after Kelly and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) denounced the Justice Department after a grand jury purportedly rejected criminal charges against lawmakers who appeared in the video.

“We have not been formally told what they were trying to charge us with and what law they were using. It’s just what we’re hearing through the media,” Slotkin said.

Building on today's legal win for Kelly, the six Democrats who urged military servicemembers in a video not to comply with illegal orders are now looking to gain political momentum and build their campaign war chests.

“We are not done,” said Pennsylvania Rep. Chrissy Houlahan at a press conference alongside fellow House members.

“We will continue to push back. The tide is turning and accountability is coming,” Colorado Rep. Jason Crow said in a video posted to social media.

Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin said in a fundraising email: “They tried to indict me.”

In addition to a flurry of social media posts and two afternoon press conferences, Politico reports that several have been making the cable news rounds and scheduled appearances on high-profile late night TV shows — signs that they see political opportunity in Trump’s attacks and are hoping to bottle that clout.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 15:45

The post More Thoughts on the Jobs Report appeared first on CEPR.

Zelensky Demands 'Specific Date' For EU Accession, Spooking Brussels

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday issued a statement demanding that the European Union lock in a "specific date" for Ukraine’s formal entry into the bloc.

But this is a tall order given Ukraine remains among the world's most corrupt countries, study after study has shown. "Ukraine will do everything to be technically ready for accession by 2027," Zelensky said. "We will at least accomplish the main steps. Second, I want a specific date. I am absolutely confident that if in the agreement... there is no date, then Russia will do everything to block the process."

The current draft US-led 20-point peace plan makes mention of Ukraine's accession in 2027, even while most EU officials warn privately that it will in reality take at least a decade of reforms and monitoring.

via EUNews/file

As for EU fears of rushing in a country which isn't ready, which could open the flood gates for other bad and hasty admission decisions, the following headline says it all: EU 'membership-lite' plan for Ukraine spooks European capitals.

The report describes:

Brussels is drafting proposals to tear up the EU accession system used since the cold war, replacing it with a contentious two-tier model that could fast-track Ukraine's entry in any peace deal to end Russia's invasion.

The overhaul plan under discussion at the European Commission, while preliminary, is already unsettling EU capitals alarmed at an "enlargement-lite" approach with sweeping implications for the union, according to seven senior officials involved in the talks.

Zelensky in his Wednesday remarks further spelled out that he'll reject any peace deal involving the US, Russia, and Europe if it fails to set a date for accession. 

"This ... is about security guarantees, security guarantees for Ukraine," he said. "These are specific details, with a specific date. And my signature today, on the 20-point plan, the plan to end the war, guarantees Ukrainians that there will be a specific date for our accession."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly warned against fast-tracking Ukraine, recently saying that admitting Ukraine by 2027 would be "an open declaration of war against Hungary."

Orban has actually insisted that Ukraine never join the EU, after the country formally applied for EU membership in February 2022, days after the Russian army crossed the border to initiate Putin's 'special military operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 15:25

The Numbers Don't Lie... Yet Again

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Once again, the hard data exposes the success of President Trump’s relentless crackdown on crime, with violent offenses plunging to historic lows across major U.S. cities—proving that backing the blue and securing borders delivers real results where Democrat failures once bred anarchy.

This latest triumph builds on momentum where border enforcement and federal interventions are dismantling the criminal networks that thrived under open-border insanity.

New figures from Major Cities Chiefs Association, reported by Axios highlight a staggering turnaround: murders dropped 19% in 2025 compared to the previous year, robberies fell 20%, and aggravated assaults declined nearly 10%.

AXIOS: Violent crime plummets across major U.S. citieshttps://t.co/316mo1WYaa pic.twitter.com/73A1yxb0fn

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 11, 2026

Stand out cities include Orlando and Tampa, with more than a 50% decline in homicides. Denver, Seattle, Honolulu, and Albuquerque, N.M., also posted impressive homicide drops.

These reductions mark the largest single-year drop in homicides on record, pushing the murder rate in the nation’s biggest cities to its lowest level in at least 125 years.

President Trump didn’t hesitate to credit his administration’s aggressive strategy. “We surged federal resources into Democrat-run cities, removed criminal illegals from our streets, backed our police and prosecutors, and rejected the Radical Left’s policies that coddled criminals and invited chaos,” he wrote in a statement.

Trump added that his approach has reversed the “years of skyrocketing crime and carnage” inherited from the Biden era, restoring safety to levels unseen in over a century.

The declines extend beyond murders. Rapes, shooting deaths—now at their fewest since 2015—and even on-duty deaths of law enforcement officers have hit an 80-year low. Traffic fatalities and overdose deaths are also down, underscoring how Trump’s whole-of-government offensive against drug cartels and reckless policies is saving American lives.

Nevertheless, Axios concludes that “Experts aren’t sure why violent crime continues to fall,” while STILL suggesting it’s to do with recovery the COVID pandemic

This ridiculous framing is why Americans don’t trust the media.

President Trump securing the border, mobilizing federal law enforcement to arrest violent criminals, and deporting the worst of the worst illegal aliens is EXACTLY what’s driving the massive drop in crime. pic.twitter.com/yfiC4BUHbt

— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) February 11, 2026

This is the third wave in a series of victories on crime. Last month data from the Council on Criminal Justice’s report revealed a 21% homicide drop in 2025, with carjackings slashed 43% and overdoses reduced 20%.

Cities like Baltimore saw homicides plummet 60%, while Chicago’s shootings fell 35% and carjackings 48%. This came after Trump deployed federal agents to high-crime zones and cracked down on illegal alien gangs that leftist sanctuary policies had shielded.

Just weeks later, further data captured early 2026 from Washington, D.C., highlighted homicides down 80%, robberies 58%, and motor vehicle thefts 57% year-to-date.

Operations like “Make D.C. Safe & Beautiful” exemplified the federal surge, with U.S. Marshals arresting over 8,400 violent fugitives and seizing 856 guns by year’s end. These updates reinforced how empowering prosecutors and rejecting defund-the-police nonsense turns the tide against soft-on-crime experiments.

Contrast this with the Biden-Harris disaster, where crime spiked amid defunded police and unchecked immigration.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 15:05

X Money 'External Beta' Will Go Live In 1-2 Months, Musk Says

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

X Money, an upcoming payments system that forms part of Elon Musk’s “everything app” plans, is scheduled to come out as a “limited beta” in the next two months before launching to X users worldwide. 

Musk gave the new timeline at his AI company’s “All Hands” presentation on Wednesday, during which he said that X Money was already live “in closed beta within the company.” 

“This is intended to be the place where all money is. The central source of all monetary transactions,” he said, calling it a “game changer.”

Elon Musk says X Money is coming soon. Source: xAI

Payments part of X’s “everything app”

The move is framed as a key upcoming feature to make X more essential, tied with its “everything app” vision, with payments a core driver of daily engagement. 

Musk noted that the platform has 1 billion installed users but said its average monthly users were around 600 million.

X Money, rumored to be launched last year, is expected to integrate directly into the X platform, which aims to become a single place for social networking, messaging, content, and financial services, similar to WeChat in China.

“As we give people more reasons to use the X app, whether it’s for communications, or for Grok, or for X Money [...] we want it to be such that if you wanted to, you could live your life on the X app,” said Musk.

Elon Musk has been pushing for payments on X since shortly after acquiring Twitter in 2022. The idea ties back to his early career in 1999, when he co-founded X.com, an online bank that merged with Confinity to become PayPal, which was later acquired by eBay.

Crypto integration remains a mystery. Musk has previously shared enthusiasm for Dogecoin, but the initial focus is likely to be fiat since the company has partnered with Visa. According to the Blockchain Council, it will support crypto in the future. 

xAI expands Macrohard data center

Musk also highlighted the company’s AI growth, stating that xAI can “deploy more AI compute faster than anyone else.”

The tech billionaire showcased the firm’s “Macroharder” AI data center in Memphis, Tennessee — an expansion of the existing plant that adds 220,000 more graphics processing units.

“All this will be training the [AI] models that you experience. It's absolutely fundamental to have large-scale training compute in order to get the best models,” he said. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 14:40

Russia To Send Oil To Cuba Amid US-Imposed Blockade

Russia is preparing to rush urgently needed oil to Cuba under what officials describe as a "humanitarian" arrangement, according to a report Thursday by the pro-government newspaper Izvestia.

The Russian Embassy in Havana told Izvestia that "as far as we know, Russia is expected to supply oil and petroleum products to Cuba as humanitarian aid in the near future" - amid the island's worst energy crunch in years.

Adobe stock

After decades of already crippling sanctions, President Trump's latest Executive Order "imposes a new tariff system that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba."

The most devastating move has been to block the ability of the post-Maduro Venezuelan government to send supplies to Cuba. Caracas was Cuba's chief oil supplier.

Key airlines have stopped flights into Havana's main international airport for lack of jet fuel. As we reported earlier, Russia is allowing its airlines to temporarily operate outbound flights only.

5,000 Russian tourists remain stranded in Cuba, amid an evacuation overseen by Moscow, according to AFP citing Russia's Association of Tour Operators.

Earlier this month international reports said Cuba was merely days from running out of fuel, and widescale power outages across various districts of the country have only worsened. 

"The last known delivery came via a tanker from Mexico in early January, but Mexico halted exports amid US pressure," The Guardian notes. "At the same time, crude flows from Venezuela have dried up after a US operation in January that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, cutting off support from Cuba’s most trusted energy supplier."

Havana's lone primary international airport has seen drastic developments such as the following:

In recent hours, a video has gone viral on social media showing dozens of tourists disembarking from a plane on the tarmac in Moscow after their flight to Cuba was aborted just before takeoff.

The testimonies collected by the Russian outlet Mash on Telegram indicate that passengers on flight SU6849 had almost taken off when, "at the last moment, when the engines were already running, the pilot announced that there was no fuel in Havana," forcing the flight to be canceled at the last minute.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that "the stranglehold imposed by the United States is already causing a lot of difficulties for Cuba" and this has resulted in the two allies discussing "possible ways to resolve these problems or at least provide all possible assistance."

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 14:20

Microsoft AI CEO Warns Most White Collar Jobs Fully Automated "Within Next 12-18 Months"; Anthropic Fears Potential For 'Heinous Crimes'

The man leading Microsoft’s AI sprawling efforts is sounding the alarm over imminent mass labor disruptions, warning that the overwhelming majority of white-collar professional work could vanish to automation far sooner than most business and policy leaders are willing to admit - something we've been concerned about since early 2023.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman forecasted that within the next two years a vast swath of desk-bound tasks will be swallowed by AI.

“I think we’re going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks - so white collar where you’re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer, accountant, or project manager, or marketing person - most of the tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months,” Suleyman said when asked about the time table for Artificial general intelligence, commonly known as AGI.

The specter of mass job displacement now haunts governments around the world, even as the true body count remains murky amid broader economic headwinds.

A recent Challenger report showed that AI was blamed for 7,624 job cuts in January, 7% of the month’s total, and linked to 54,836 announced layoffs across 2025. Since tracking started in 2023, AI has been cited in 79,449 planned cuts, roughly 3% of the overall tally.

"It’s difficult to say how big an impact AI is having on layoffs specifically. We know leaders are talking about AI, many companies want to implement it in operations, and the market appears to be rewarding companies that mention it," said Challenger.

A stark illustration is unfolding at Bay Area startup Mercor, which has quietly hired tens of thousands of white-collar contractors, often highly credentialed specialists in medicine, law, finance, engineering, writing, and the arts, to train the very AI systems destined to replace them. Paid $45 to $250 per hour for weeks or months of reviewing and refining model outputs for giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, these workers are, in effect, being paid to hand over the keys to their own obsolescence, the Wall Street Journal reports.

However, some jobs still remain immune from AI - for now. High on the list are occupations that hinge on physical presence and skills such as healthcare professionals and tradesmen such as plumbers and welders. Those are just a sample of jobs that are safe until AI-powered Optimus robots are on the move. Want to know if your job is safe? Click here to see the list.

On the other side of the argument - Morgan Stanley analysts recently warned clients that "AI impacts may take longer to appear in economic data," with the first undeniable waves likely hitting "later this decade and into the next."

"While AI adoption may be faster than past technologies, we think it is still too early to see it in economic data, outside of business investment," Stephen Byrd, the bank's Global Head of Thematic Research and Sustainability Research, told clients.

Anthropic Warns Over 'Heinous Crimes'

Meanwhile, Anthropic is warning that their latest Claude models could be used for "heinous crimes" such as developing chemical weapons. 

"In newly-developed evaluations, both Claude Opus 4.5 and 4.6 showed elevated susceptibility to harmful misuse," in certain computer use cases, the company said in a new sabotage report released late Tuesday. 

Dario Amodei in Davos, Switzerland, last month. Photo: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"This included instances of knowingly supporting — in small ways — efforts toward chemical weapon development and other heinous crimes."

Anthropic also noted that in some test environments, when prompted to "single-mindedly optimize a narrow objective," Claude Opus 4.6 appears "more willing to manipulate or deceive other participants, compared to prior models from both Anthropic and other developers."

The company says that the risk is still low but not negligible, however the sudden departure of an Antrhropic AI safety researcher suggests otherwise.

"I continuously find myself reckoning with our situation. The world is in peril. And not just from AI, or bioweapons, but from a whole series of interconnected crises unfolding in this very moment. We appear to be approaching a threshold where our wisdom must grow in equal measure to our capacity to affect the world, lest we face the consequences," said Mrinank Sharma, who led the company's safeguards research team.

Today is my last day at Anthropic. I resigned.

Here is the letter I shared with my colleagues, explaining my decision. pic.twitter.com/Qe4QyAFmxL

— mrinank (@MrinankSharma) February 9, 2026

Last month Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei sounded the alarm on AI - warning of the following (via Axios):

1. Massive job loss: "I ... simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1–5 years, while also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1–2 years."
2. AI with nation-state power: "I think the best way to get a handle on the risks of AI is to ask the following question: suppose a literal 'country of geniuses' were to materialize somewhere in the world in ~2027. Imagine, say, 50 million people, all of whom are much more capable than any Nobel Prize winner, statesman, or technologist. ... I think it should be clear that this is a dangerous situation — a report from a competent national security official to a head of state would probably contain words like 'single most serious national security threat we've faced in a century, possibly ever.' It seems like something the best minds of civilization should be focused on."
3. Rising terror threat: "There is evidence that many terrorists are at least relatively well-educated ... Biology is by far the area I'm most worried about, because of its very large potential for destruction and the difficulty of defending against ... Most individual bad actors are disturbed individuals and so almost by definition their behavior is unpredictable and irrational — and it's these bad actors, the unskilled ones, who might have stood to benefit the most from AI making it much easier to kill many people. ... [A]s biology advances (increasingly driven by AI itself), it may ... become possible to carry out more selective attacks (for example, targeted against people with specific ancestries), which adds yet another, very chilling, possible motive. I do not think biological attacks will necessarily be carried out the instant it becomes widely possible to do so — in fact, I would bet against that. But added up across millions of people and a few years of time, I think there is a serious risk of a major attack ... with casualties potentially in the millions or more."
4. Empowering authoritarians: Governments of all orders will possess this technology, including China, "second only to the United States in AI capabilities, and ... the country with the greatest likelihood of surpassing the United States in those capabilities. Their government is currently autocratic and operates a high-tech surveillance state." Amodei writes bluntly: "AI-enabled authoritarianism terrifies me."
5. AI companies: "It is somewhat awkward to say this as the CEO of an AI company, but I think the next tier of risk is actually AI companies themselves," Amodei warns after the passage about authoritarian governments. "AI companies control large datacenters, train frontier models, have the greatest expertise on how to use those models, and in some cases have daily contact with and the possibility of influence over tens or hundreds of millions of users. ... [T]hey could, for example, use their AI products to brainwash their massive consumer user base, and the public should be alert to the risk this represents. I think the governance of AI companies deserves a lot of scrutiny."
6. Seduce the powerful to silence: AI giants have so much power and money that leaders will be tempted to downplay risk, and hide red flags like the weird stuff Claude did in testing (blackmailing an executive about a supposed extramarital affair to avoid being shut down, which Anthropic disclosed). "There is so much money to be made with AI — literally trillions of dollars per year," Amodei writes in his bleakest passage. "This is the trap: AI is so powerful, such a glittering prize, that it is very difficult for human civilization to impose any restraints on it at all."

Call to action: "[W]ealthy individuals have an obligation to help solve this problem," Amodei says. "It is sad to me that many wealthy individuals (especially in the tech industry) have recently adopted a cynical and nihilistic attitude that philanthropy is inevitably fraudulent or useless."

Looks like all roads lead to...

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 14:00

Stellar 30Y Auction Stops Through As Bid To Cover Soars, Dealers Plunge To Record Low

It was the polar opposite to yesterday's slop. 

After a mediocre 3Y, and a dismal 10Y auction yesterday, moments ago the Treasury concluded the sale of the week's final refunding auction, when it unloaded $25BN in 30Y paper to seemingly endless demand. 

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.750%, down from 4.825% in January, and the lowest since November. It also stopped through the 4.771% When Issued by 2.1bps, the biggest stop since LIberation Day in April 2025.

The bid to cover was 2.662, up sharply from 2.418 and the highest since January 2018! An oddity today is that the Fed's SOMA tendered for, and accepted, a whopping $7.1 billion, a continuation of yesterday's massive retention when the SOMA ended up with over $11BN of the 10Y.

The internals were also stellar, with Indirects taking down 69.94%, up from 66.77% and the highest since November. And with Directs rising to 24.18% (if not a record high, unlike this week's 3Y auction), Dealers were left with just 5.88%, down from 11.95% last month, and the lowest on record.

Overall, this was a stellar 30Y auction, one of the strongest on record, and clearly an indication that nobody is afraid that tomorrow's delayed CPI may come in overly hot. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 13:42