Different views on possible rate cuts (see paragraph 2).
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025. Excerpt:

In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that, with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately or modestly restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Participants noted that monetary policy would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate, noting that upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or modest, that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored, or that some weakening of economic activity and labor market conditions could occur. A couple of participants noted that, if the data evolve in line with their expectations, they would be open to considering a reduction in the target range for the policy rate as soon as at the next meeting. Some participants saw the most likely appropriate path of monetary policy as involving no reductions in the target range for the federal funds rate this year, noting that recent inflation readings had continued to exceed the Committee's 2 percent goal, that upside risks to inflation remained meaningful in light of factors such as elevated short-term inflation expectations of businesses and households, or that they expected that the economy would remain resilient. Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level.

Various participants discussed risks that, if realized, would have the potential to affect the appropriate path of monetary policy. Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants noted that, if the imposition of tariffs were to generate a larger-than-expected increase in inflation, if such an increase in inflation were to be more persistent than anticipated, or if a notable increase in medium- or longer-term inflation expectations were to occur, then it would be appropriate to maintain a more restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, especially if labor market conditions and economic activity remained solid. By contrast, if labor market conditions or economic activity were to weaken materially, or if inflation were to continue to come down and inflation expectations remained well anchored, then it would be appropriate to establish a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case. Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if elevated inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for employment weakened. If that were to occur, participants agreed that they would consider how far the economy is from each goal and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.

In considering the likelihood of various scenarios, participants agreed that the risks of higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions had diminished but remained elevated, citing a lower expected path of tariffs, encouraging recent readings on inflation and inflation expectations, resilience in consumer and business spending, or improvements in some measures of consumer or business sentiment. Some participants commented that they saw the risk of elevated inflation as remaining more prominent, or as having diminished by less, than risks to employment. A few participants saw risks to the labor market as having become predominant. They noted some recent signs of weakening in real activity or the labor market, or commented that conditions could weaken in the future, particularly if policy were to remain restrictive. Participants agreed that although uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased, it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy. Participants emphasized the importance of ensuring that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored and agreed that the current stance of monetary policy positioned the Committee well to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
emphasis added

Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA.
This data is as of July 8, 2025.
Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years.
Air travel is essentially unchanged YoY (7-day average up about 1.8% YoY).

The red line is the seven-day average for 2025.  
Air travel is mostly tracking last year (down slightly YTD).

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

The key stories for existing homes are that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).

And it has been a disappointing year for new homebuilders (but not horrible). Homebuilders have a growing number of completed homes for sales, a larger than normal number of unsold homes under construction and are reducing prices to compete with more existing home inventory. From the NAHB:

[T]he latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure on a monthly basis in 2022. This compares with 34% of builders who reported cutting prices in May and 29% in April. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in June, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 62% in June, up one percentage point from May.

“Rising inventory levels and prospective home buyers who are on hold waiting for affordability conditions to improve are resulting in weakening price growth in most markets and generating price declines for resales in a growing number of markets,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given current market conditions, NAHB is forecasting a decline in single-family starts for 2025.”

Realtor.com reports in the June 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 6.2% year-over-year in June. And active listings were up 28.9% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in June, as the number of actively listed homes rose 28.9% compared to the same time last year. This builds on May’s 30.1% increase and marks the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory gains. The number of homes for sale topped 1 million (1.08 million) for the second consecutive month and exceeded 2020 levels for the third month in a row, a key pandemic recovery benchmark. Still, June inventory remains 12.9% below typical 2017–19 levels, down from 14.4% in May, indicating the market is closing the pre-pandemic inventory gap at an accelerating pace.

There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Homebuyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth. The average loan size on a purchase application, at $432,600, was at its lowest since January 2025. The refinance index also increased over the week, with VA refinances in particular up 32 percent.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.79 percent, with points holding steady at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 25% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

Vestas Wind Power CEO Urges EU To Sharpen Its "Fragmented" Energy Policy

Henrik Andersen, CEO of Danish wind turbine giant Vestas Wind Systems A/S, has issued a stark warning to European policymakers: without stronger and more cohesive industrial strategies, Europe may lose its edge in renewable energy manufacturing to the U.S. and other regions.

“Wind is largely a European creation — born in our universities, tested on our sites,” Andersen told Bloomberg News. “If we don’t protect and support what we’ve built, companies like ours will eventually move out of Europe. It’s that simple.”

Andersen’s remarks come amid growing concerns over Europe's competitiveness, weak economic growth, and its ability to meet carbon reduction goals. These challenges were spotlighted in a 2023 report by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. Geopolitical tensions — such as Iran's recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing instability from the war in Ukraine — have also underscored the urgency of achieving energy independence.

“When you’re self-sufficient, energy prices fall. So if Europe wants any of this, then energy and industrial policy need to be very closely linked,” Andersen emphasized. “We need an industrial policy that allows European companies to be both global and big.”

Bloomberg writes that despite its leadership in wind technology, Europe’s fragmented regulatory landscape, high inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain issues have created headwinds for companies like Vestas. Competition from Chinese turbine manufacturers — including recent deals in Germany — has added to the pressure, although some of these arrangements face scrutiny on national security grounds.

Andersen criticized the EU’s long-standing aversion to industrial consolidation, arguing it has left European companies at a disadvantage globally. “For decades, we’ve said no to mergers and consolidation in the name of competition,” he said. “Now it’s that very fragmentation that’s making Europe uncompetitive.”

He pointed to U.S. policy as a model for Europe, citing the American approach to energy independence and industrial scale. Even with political threats to renewable subsidies, Andersen acknowledged the U.S. has followed through on consistent long-term strategy.

“I’m going to be a little bold and say it: Europe should look at what the US has done,” he said. “Over the past decades, America has built a level of energy independence that now allows them to export energy to Europe. That didn’t happen overnight. It took two or three decades of consistent policy, but it shows that it can be done.”

Vestas, headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark, has installed over 56,000 turbines in 71 countries since its founding in 1979. Recently, the company has significantly expanded in the U.S., doubling its American workforce to over 5,000 in the past three years. Its U.S. factories are currently running at full capacity to meet demand.

“We’re not afraid to invest in the US,” Andersen said. “And we don’t expect any administration — current or future — to de-prioritize energy. In fact, we’re confident they’ll keep pushing forward.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 02:45

BRICS' Condemnation Of The Pahalgam Terrorist Attack Proves That China Politicized The SCO

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Rio Declaration that followed the latest BRICS Summit in that coastal Brazilian city saw all members, including China, condemn late April’s Pahalgam terrorist attack in paragraph 34:

“We condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir on 22 April 2025”.

This sharply contrasts with the draft SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement in late June, which included no condemnation of that attack, hence why India’s Defense Minister refused to sign it.

That scandal was analyzed here at the time.

It was assessed that this was a deliberate provocation by this year’s Chinese chair.

The triple purpose was to do a favor for its Pakistani ally, craft the optics for lending false credence to the perception that India is the “weak link” in the SCO, and thus strengthen the influence of Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction. China was able to pull this off due to its chairmanship giving it extra influence over the group’s workings. No joint declaration was agreed to because China refused to amend the text to satisfy India.

China ironically found itself in the same position during the latest BRICS Summit as the one into which it had just placed India, however, except Beijing decided to condemn Pahalgam this time around in order to avoid the optics of a BRICS founder torpedoing this year’s declaration. Brazilian President Lula da Silva just hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a state visit, which was analyzed here to be part of his new balancing act, so he wasn’t going to disrespect him by not including Pahalgam in the declaration.

The aforesaid analysis also argues that it was this state visit and associated state dinner which influenced Xi’s unprecedented decision to decline participating in this year’s summit for the first time ever (implausibly citing scheduling conflicts) since he didn’t want to play second fiddle to Modi there. In light of the declaration condemning Pahalgam, which was predictable in retrospect given Lula’s hosting of Modi on a state visit, Xi couldn’t oppose it without discrediting himself personally and rupturing BRICS.

Another reason behind his unprecedented absence could have therefore been to “save face” after tasking his Prime Minister to agree to the declaration despite its condemnation of Pahalgam for the reasons explained above. Having his Defense Minister refuse to amend the joint statement from the SCO meeting that he just chaired two weeks ago so that it condemns Pahalgam to having his Prime Minister inexplicably agree to condemn Pahalgam in the Rio Declaration is a textbook example of flip-flopping.

Even worse, it tacitly draws attention to how China politicized the SCO during its last meeting as touched upon in the analysis that was cited at the end of the introduction, which goes against the spirit of the group. The favor that it did for Pakistan thus backfired since the optics have now been inadvertently crafted for lending credence to Indian suspicions that China has ulterior motives within the SCO and Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction might now be discredited by association.

In hindsight, China should have included a condemnation of Pahalgam in the draft SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement during the group’s latest meeting that it chaired since it wasn’t realistically going to oppose this predictable inclusion in the then-upcoming BRICS Rio Declaration.

The fact that it didn’t do so suggests that it either clumsily overlooked this or took for granted that it could convince Brazil not to include it.

In any case, China’s reputation just took a hit, and it was entirely avoidable.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 02:00

Israel Defense Minister Unveils Plan For 'Concentration Camp' In Gaza

With Gaza ceasefire negotiations under way and President Trump raising hopes of a deal being reached by week's end, Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday revealed that the IDF will create what it calls a "humanitarian city" in the wasteland that is Rafah, and then forcibly concentrate Gaza's entire population of nearly 2 million people inside it. 

Though the Israeli government and its advocates will likely to condemn already-widespread usage of the term "concentration camp" to describe this undertaking -- likely claiming it's somehow antisemitic given the parallels to Nazi Germany -- it's unambiguously applicable under the Merriam-Webster definition of the term: 

concentration camp (noun) a place where large numbers of people (such as prisoners of war, political prisoners, refugees, or the members of an ethnic or religious minority) are detained or confined under armed guard  

In the first phase, the IDF plans to round up 600,000 displaced Palestinians who are living in the coastal Mawasi area and move them to Rafah, a city in southernmost Gaza that borders Egypt and Israel. Eventually, every Gaza resident will be moved. After security screening, Palestinians will be ushered inside the camp, with IDF guards ensuring that none are able to leave, Katz said. 

Like the rest of Gaza, Rafah has been devastated with US-supplied weapons used by the IDF (AFP)

While the Israeli military will secure the perimeter, the Netanyahu government is looking for some type of international organization(s) to take charge of the interior, to include overseeing the distribution of aid, an enterprise currently managed by the shadowy Gaza Humanitarian Foundation with the IDF dishing out mass killings of Palestinians approaching the aid points; more than 600 are reported dead around the aid stations since late May. Whistleblowing soldiers have told reporters that lethal weapons are being used against unarmed people as brute-force crowd control.   

Katz's announcement contradicts what the IDF Chief of Staff's office told Israel's High Court on the very same day. In response to a petition filed by IDF reserve soldiers asking the court to determine if Israel was violating international law by forcibly displacing Palestinians with perhaps the ultimate goal of expelling them, the Chief of Staff's office said there was no plan to move masses of Gaza residents or to concentrate them somewhere in the territory. However, that assurance is itself seemingly contradicted by the operations order for "Gideon's Chariots," the IDF's latest operation launched in May, which says one objective is "managing and mobilizing the civilian population," Haaretz reports. 

On Monday, Katz also reiterated Israel's intention to subsequently facilitate Palestinians' departures to other countries, telling reporters that Israel will implement "the emigration plan, which will happen." Separately, however, an official told Haaretz that Israel's overtures to various countries have all been refused. While Israel's champions commonly claim such refusals prove that Palestinians are dangerously undesirable people, Middle East governments are intensely wary of being perceived by their own populations as facilitating ethnic cleansing by Israel, for fear of domestic backlash up to and including insurrections.

RAFAH, GAZA BEFORE & AFTER.

-TRT World pic.twitter.com/EusxcxEHdP

— International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) July 3, 2025

For somewhat similar reasons, Israel is likely to struggle to find what Katz called "international partners" to run the interior of the Rafah concentration camp. Human-rights-oriented groups and foreign governments will recoil at an invitation to serve as a key component of a scheme that most objective observers would characterize as a war crime. Given that, we could see the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation fill the void, which would only compound the controversy.  

Meeting with President Trump at the White House on Monday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck an optimistic tone about the prospect of mass Palestinian emigration, and characterized the idea as voluntary in nature: 

"If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave. We're working with the United States very closely about finding countries that will seek to realize what they always say, that they wanted to give the Palestinians a better future. I think we're getting close to finding several countries."

Trump echoed Netanyahu's optimism, saying, "We've had great cooperation from ... surrounding countries, great cooperation from every single one of them. So something good will happen." 

"Citizens will be concentrated in the south...understanding there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza," Bezalel Smotrich said in May (Amir Levy - Getty via NYTimes)

Though the implementation phase is apparently now imminent, the idea of corralling all of Gaza's population into Rafah and then moving them out has been circulating since the very beginning of Israel's response to the Hamas invasion of Oct 7 2023. A Ministry of Intelligence policy paper dated Oct 10 2023 and obtained by +972 Magazine that same month recommended herding Gaza's entire 2.2 million residents south and then forcing them into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

More recently, as Dave DeCamp notes at Antiwar.com, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich outlined a forcible displacement scheme in candid and grim terms that belie Netanyahu's characterization of coming emigration as "voluntary." In May, he boasted to attendees of a West Bank settlement conference that Palestinians will have no choice but to abandon a land rendered uninhabitable by the IDF: 

“Within a few months...Gaza will be totally destroyed. The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

Where, exactly, will those "other places" be?    

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 23:50

Do They Deserve It? Mexico Is Collapsing As The US Deports Illegals Back Home

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Oh, the delicious irony. For many years I’ve been writing about the southern US border and the many ways in which Mexico has used it as a “steam valve” to get rid of people in perpetual poverty, as well as malcontents, violent criminals and political revolutionaries. Who could have foreseen a time when the conundrum would be reversed and Mexico would be crushed by an avalanche of its own unwanted citizens?

But weren’t we told that migrants are an “economic boon” to any country lucky enough to have them?

The argument among progressives and open border activists has always been that migrants are average law abiding people (just like us) who slip across the border simply to integrate into our society and live the American dream. They claim that Mexican leaders are not in control of the situation and that people are desperate to escape crime and social decline.

In reality, government officials have long encouraged migrant caravans to traverse their territories and they have allowed illegal immigration into the US as a means to divert their failures into the laps of American taxpayers. Migrants aren’t trying to escape problems in Mexico, they ARE the problem in Mexico. The more of these caravans the Mexican authorities can get rid of, the better their economic situation appears.

I wrote about this dynamic in detail in my recent article ‘Illegal Alien Economy: How Foreign Nations Exploit U.S. Borders For Profit’. Specifically, I examined threats made by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum over the possible taxation of remittances (US dollars) sent by migrants from the US into the coffers of Mexican banks and households.

She asserted that her government would “mobilize” against the US should conservative politicians continue their campaign to stop illegals from transferring money back home. Remittances are the single largest source of revenue Mexico receives from foreign countries. Their economy loses significantly without this cash flow.

Beyond the issue of easy money, though, is a singular reality which I have reiterated for a long time: Central and South American nations cannot survive the influx of returning migrants. They will be suffocated by the very same illegals they originally foisted upon the US.

The purging of millions of undesirables reduces Mexico’s poverty stats, homeless stats, unemployment stats and crime stats. I have to laugh every time I hear smug Europeans criticize the US for our violent crime rates – Only now are they beginning to understand what happens when you overwhelm a western nation with a third world demographic and a third world mentality. We certainly have our own home brewed fatigue-ers, but taking on millions of fatigue-ers from other nations does not help.

It’s difficult to keep crime low when other countries offload their problem children onto your front lawn.

Furthermore, labor data proves that illegals have been stealing American jobs and driving down American wages. It’s no coincidence that employment numbers for native born Americans have spiked in recent months as migrant jobs have decreased in tandem with deportations.

There’s a lot more proof in the pudding when we examine what is currently happening in Mexico, though.

Riots in Mexico city are breaking out and they are growing more violent by the day. Residents blame “gringo immigrants” and “digital nomads” for moving into the country and driving up food and housing costs. They also complain that white visitors are allowed to stay on their visas for far too long and that they refuse to “learn their language or respect Mexican culture”. Gee, that sure sounds familiar. Has Mexico gone MAGA?

The irony is, of course, that conservative Americans have been warning about the same issues caused by migrants from Mexico and we have been called “racists” and “fascists” for doing so.

There are approximately 700,000 US citizens residing in Mexico today, a tiny number compared to the tens of millions of Mexican migrants in the US illegally. But somehow, gringos are to blame for rising prices?

Realty experts in the Mexican market say that the cause of the shortages is a slowdown in housing development (Didn’t they tell us we needed illegals to help build more houses to counter the housing shortage in the US? Why don’t they put all these returning construction supermen to work in Mexico?). This explanation doesn’t account for inflation in other areas of the economy such as food and energy. So, are white tourists and ex-pats making things more expensive south of the border?

No, this is nonsense. Perhaps in a handful of resort towns the case might be made, but the truth is that Mexicans are being propagandized into thinking US migrants are the cause of their woes when it is actually the mass return of their OWN CITIZENS from the US.

Some of these people have been deported by force, but armies of them are self deporting and the Mexican economy simply can’t handle the strain. The surge started in 2024, even before Trump took office, with many illegals leaving the US because of inflation as well as the expectation of a conservative election win.

The riots, though, are probably starting now because of the mass deportations. Mexico City in particular has been inundated with migrants, many of them from other countries in Central and South America, as they look for a new place to settle outside the US.

I’ll say it again – I believe the Mexican population is being agitated into violence against American visitors by false claims that they are driving up prices when it is returning illegals that are the real cause. Mexican leaders are trying to distract their population from the bigger picture.

To be sure, there is obviously the NGO issue to consider. Central and South American leaders have not been acting unilaterally as they push for open US borders. Globalist organizations have been expediting matters by feeding cash into programs that guide illegals into the US. They do this to further their vision of a borderless multicultural world, but also to destabilize western societies and displace groups of people they see as likely threats in the future (namely white Christian conservatives).

However, globalist non-profits only smooth the way; its governments like the variety in Mexico that have been providing the human bodies for the NGOs to work with.

Now that Mexico is witnessing the pure Karma of their actions, what is likely to happen? First, the Mexican economy is going to go into a tailspin in a very short period of time. Prices will skyrocket due to crushing demand as illegals come home (just as they helped to trigger rising prices in the US during the Biden border bonanza).

Second, unemployment will rise exponentially along with a saturated labor market. High competition for limited jobs will force government intervention. But in Mexico the government has far less means at its disposal to adapt to the chaos of mass immigration. They will seek to establish social programs to gloss over the damage, but this will fail. Not only are they taking on millions of citizens that they tried to get rid of, they are losing access to the billions of US dollars those migrants were injecting into the Mexican economy. It’s a double whammy.

Third, Mexican officials will demonize the US for the deportations, as if it’s our fault they sent so many foreigners into our country without our permission. As we have seen, this is already leading to animosity across the border and Americans will remain at risk when they travel.

Fourth, if the current trend continues, Mexico will face economic collapse. They simply won’t be able to mitigate the instability caused by the sudden surge in inflation, housing shortages and the unemployed feeding on their social welfare programs.

What would this means for the US? Riots and violence in Mexico could bleed over into border states. Near zero infrastructure on the Mexican side of the border and even less restrictions on migrant movements, which means even tighter controls will be needed on the US side to keep illegals in check. Cartels may end up being the least of our worries when it comes to threats from Central America.

Keep in mind that a large contingent of Central Americans believe that the southern US belongs to them by historical right. The “La Raza” movement has long called for the retaking of large swaths of US territory in the name of “decolonization” (even though they are also descended from Spanish colonists). I believe they will once again assume that they can solve most of their problems of incompetent governance and economic decline by blaming the US and pressing citizens to invade.

They will double down on the same actions that got them in trouble in the first place. When Claudia Sheinbaum talks about “mobilizing” Mexico against the US, this is most likely what she means – A renewed march on the US border in the hopes that Mexico can reopen the steam valve and alleviate their economic troubles.

The result will not be peaceful as she seems to suppose; it could even mean war. It would be a disaster for the Mexicans, but they’ve been relying on the US for so long that they simply don’t understand any other way. That is to say, they are about to get what they deserve; a taste of their own medicine. The destabilization they tried to export to us is now on its way to blow up their own country.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 23:25

New 'Mind-Reading' AI Predicts What Humans Will Do Next

Via StudyFinds,

MUNICH — An artificial intelligence system can now predict your next move before you make it. We’re not just talking about whether you’ll click “buy now” on that Amazon cart, but rather how you’ll navigate complex decisions, learn new skills, or explore uncharted territory.

(Image by metamorworks via Shutterstock)

Researchers have developed an AI called Centaur that accurately predicts human behavior across virtually any psychological experiment. It even outperforms the specialized computer models scientists have been using for decades. Trained on data from more than 60,000 people making over 10 million decisions, Centaur captures the underlying patterns of how we think, learn, and make choices.

“The human mind is remarkably general,” the researchers write in their paper, published in Nature. “Not only do we routinely make mundane decisions, such as choosing a breakfast cereal or selecting an outfit, but we also tackle complex challenges, such as figuring out how to cure cancer or explore outer space.”

An AI that truly understands human cognition could revolutionize marketing, education, mental health treatment, and product design. But it also raises uncomfortable questions about privacy and manipulation when our digital footprints reveal more about us than ever before.

How Scientists Built a Digital Mind Reader AI

The research team started with an ambitious goal: create a single AI model that could predict human behavior in any psychological experiment. Their approach was surprisingly straightforward but required massive scale.

Scientists assembled a dataset called Psych-101 containing 160 experiments covering memory tests, learning games, risk-taking scenarios, and moral dilemmas. Each experiment was converted into plain English descriptions that an AI could understand.

Rather than building from scratch, researchers took Meta’s Llama 3.1 language model (the same type powering ChatGPT) and gave it specialized training on human behavior. They used a technique that allows them to modify only a tiny fraction of the AI’s programming while keeping most of it unchanged. The entire training process took only five days on a high-end computer processor.

Centaur could mark a new turning point in AI in its unprecedented ability to understand the human mind. (Image by Shutterstock AI Generator) Centaur Dominates Traditional Cognitive Models

When tested, Centaur completely crushed the competition. In head-to-head comparisons with specialized cognitive models that scientists spent decades perfecting, Centaur won in almost every single experiment.

The real breakthrough came when researchers tested Centaur on completely new scenarios. The AI successfully predicted human behavior even when the experiment’s story changed (turning a space treasure hunt into a magic carpet adventure), when the structure was modified (adding a third option to a two-choice task), and when entirely new domains were introduced (logical reasoning tests that weren’t in its training data).

Centaur could also generate realistic human-like behavior when running simulations. In one test involving exploration strategies, the AI achieved performance comparable to actual human participants and showed the same type of uncertainty-guided decision-making that characterizes how people behave.

Neural Alignment: Centaur Mimics Human Brain Activity

In a surprising discovery, Centaur’s internal workings had become more aligned with human brain activity, even though it was never explicitly trained to match neural data. When researchers compared the AI’s internal states to brain scans of people performing the same tasks, they found stronger correlations than with the original, untrained model.

Learning to predict human behavior apparently forced the AI to develop internal representations that mirror how our brains actually process information. The AI essentially reverse-engineered aspects of human cognition just by studying our choices.

The team also demonstrated how Centaur could accelerate scientific discovery. They used the AI to analyze human behavior patterns, leading to the discovery of a new decision-making strategy that outperformed existing psychological theories.

“We’ve created a tool that allows us to predict human behavior in any situation described in natural language – like a virtual laboratory,” says lead author Marcel Binz in a statement.

What’s Next for Human Behavior AI?

While impressive, this research represents just the beginning. The current version focuses primarily on learning and decision-making, with limited coverage of areas like social psychology or cross-cultural differences. The dataset also skews toward Western, educated populations, a common limitation in psychological research.

The team plans to expand their dataset to include more diverse domains and populations, envisioning a comprehensive model that could serve as a unified theory of human cognition. They’ve made both their dataset and AI model publicly available for other researchers to build upon.

“We combine AI research with psychological theory – and with a clear ethical commitment,” adds Binz. “In a public research environment, we have the freedom to pursue fundamental cognitive questions that are often not the focus in industry.”

For the first time, we have an artificial system that can predict human behavior across the full spectrum of psychological research with unprecedented accuracy. Whether that development excites or concerns you may depend on how confidently we can ensure such tools are used responsibly.

Paper Summary Methodology

The researchers created Centaur by fine-tuning Meta’s Llama 3.1 70B language model on a dataset called Psych-101, which contains trial-by-trial behavioral data from 160 psychological experiments involving over 60,000 participants making more than 10 million choices. They converted all experiments into natural language format and used a parameter-efficient training technique called QLoRA that modified only 0.15% of the model’s parameters. The training focused specifically on predicting human responses while masking out other parts of the experimental instructions.

Results

Centaur outperformed existing domain-specific cognitive models in almost every experiment when predicting behavior of held-out participants. The AI also successfully generalized to modified cover stories, structural task changes, and entirely new domains like logical reasoning. In open-loop simulations, Centaur generated realistic human-like behavior patterns and achieved comparable performance to actual humans in exploration tasks. Additionally, the model’s internal representations became more aligned with human neural activity compared to the base model.

Limitations

The current dataset focuses primarily on learning and decision-making domains, with limited coverage of social psychology, cross-cultural studies, and individual differences. The participant pool skews toward Western, educated populations typical of psychological research. The natural language format also introduces selection bias against experiments that cannot be easily expressed in text, and the researchers note the need for eventual expansion to multimodal data formats.

Funding and Disclosures

Research was supported by the Max Planck Society, the Humboldt Foundation, the Volkswagen Foundation, and the NOMIS Foundation. One author has consulting relationships and ownership interests in several biotech companies. The researchers have made their dataset and model publicly available for scientific use.

Publication Information

“A foundation model to predict and capture human cognition” was published in Nature on July 2, 2025. The study was led by Marcel Binz at the Institute for Human-Centered AI, Helmholtz Center Munich, with collaborators from institutions including Princeton University, University of Tübingen, Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, and others.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 22:35

Syria's Sharaa Met With Top Israeli Officials In 'Quiet' Normalization Effort: Reports

A Syrian newspaper as well as several Israeli media sources are reporting that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who previously went by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and is the founder of Syrian al-Qaeda, has met with Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.

While the reports remain unconfirmed by Damascus, The Jerusalem Post says that this was not "the first such meeting" to take place, citing a Syrian source. But Israel quickly denied the reports: "Israel issued a statement denying the claim, noting that Hanegbi is in Washington as part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s delegation visiting the US." 

via Tehran Times

The sources are calling the alleged meeting "a significant step in the Syrian‑Israeli negotiations" as part of potentially moving closer to achieving normalization base on the Abraham Accords.

This could also be part of publicly known efforts to advance "quiet" talk with Israel in order to reach a security status quo. At the moment Israel's military still occupies a large portion of southern Syria, going well beyond the Golan Heights.

Israel's YNet writes that "The expected agreement could include security guarantees, a pledge to counter terrorist activity, measures to curb Iranian influence, and a restriction of terror operatives near the border."

"According to foreign reports, Israel has already used Syrian airspace to strike Iranian targets—suggesting informal coordination between the two nations, even if not official," the outlet adds.

Damascus has continued to claim busting up 'Iranian terror' cells in various parts of the country. It is not expected to prioritize counter-ISIS operations given that many of the Sharaa/HTS government's own members are ISIS or former ISIS.

The prior Assad government had lone been Israel's most formidable regional enemy, given it possessed Russian anti-aircraft systems and hosted Iranian forces. Israel, for its part, was part of the West's covert war to oust Assad.

The timing of these reported Sharaa meetings with top Israeli officials is interesting given that it was only on Monday that the US formally lifted the longtime terror designation against his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Meanwhile, an interesting new revelation on Monday...

JUST IN: TRUMP SAYS NETANYAHU WANTED SANCTIONS LIFTED OFF SYRIA

“We took the sanctions off [Syria] because we want to give them a chance ... and I would love to be able to — at the right time — take those sanctions off [Iran], give them a chance at rebuilding, because I'd like… pic.twitter.com/dTkxg2vomr

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) July 8, 2025

As we highlighted, the fact that Sharaa was a formally designated terrorist didn't stop President Trump from meeting with him during his Saudi visit months ago. Trump even praised him as a "young, attractive guy" who has a "real shot at doing a good job"

Sadly, the message from the White House seems to be that Syria should prioritize ending the long-running state of conflict with Israel, but there's been barely a peep about the massacres being conducted against Syria's ancient Christian, Alawite, and Druze populations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 22:10

Peace In Ukraine Won't End The West's Hybrid War On Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Their refined Hybrid War model will involve efforts to win the “tech race”, a new Western division of labor for containing Russia in Europe, and AI-generated anti-Russian infowars.

Russia’s natural resource wealth and new role in accelerating multipolar processes incentivize the West to continue its Hybrid War on Russia even in the event of peace in Ukraine. The US’ neoconservative policymaking faction and the EU’s liberal-globalists (essentially one and the same at this point) continue to perceive Russia as an enduring rival to contain and ideally dismember.

That’s why they’re expected to refine their ongoing Hybrid War on Russia in the coming future through the following three means.

• The first involves their efforts to win the “tech race”, specifically in terms of AI and the Internet of Things, which they envisage will enable them to lead the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (4IR). The consequent economic and military edge that they anticipate is supposed to “leave Russia in the dust” as they see it. They believe that economic and then political instability will eventually follow in Russia. This could take the form of Color Revolutions, renewed terrorist insurgencies, and/or uncontrollable elite infighting.

• The second aspect concerns the West’s division of labor in containing Russia. The US will “Lead From Behind” by providing back-end support for its European junior partners as it prioritizes containing China. Meanwhile, the UK wants a sphere of influence in the Arctic-Baltic, Germany just in the Baltic, Poland in Central & Eastern Europe, and France in Romania-Moldova. The EU’s associated €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”, which will likely lead to social spending cuts, is being spun as a ‘defense of democracy’.

• And finally, the last element of the West’s refined Hybrid War on Russia will focus on AI-generated anti-Russian infowars, both to demoralize Russians and boost morale among Westerners. They’ll write entire articles, control more realistic bots on social media, create lifelike videos, and ultimately masquerade as policy experts and average folks alike. Years of secretly scraping Mainstream Media, Alt-Media, social media (including non-Western platforms), and YouTube for data will make these fakes very convincing.

For as compelling as these plans may be, they won’t destabilize Russia. Its economy has already proven itself remarkably resilient and China can help it catch up to the West in the tech race. As for conventional Western military threats, Russia’s military-industrial production far surpasses NATO’s, while Russia’s effective “Democratic Security” policies have preemptively neutralized infowar threats. The end result will be that Europe becomes more subordinate to the US without either of them subordinating Russia.

The West’s plans could also backfire. The European public might embrace populist-nationalists who promise to restore social spending levels by cutting newly planned military spending. Even if they’re kept out of power through Romanian-like machinations, that would be at the expense of further discrediting the myth of “Western democracy”, which might fuel an even greater public trust crisis. At the very least, standards of living will stagnate or even decline, and Europe might thus be the one “left in the dust”.

The West’s refined Hybrid War on Russia that’s expected to follow peace in Ukraine, whenever that might come and regardless of the terms, is inevitable due to how deeply embedded neoconservatives and liberal-globalists are in its decision-making ecosystem.

Even the best-case scenario of Trump coercing Zelensky into Putin’s demanded concessions and then Russia and the US agreeing to a resource-centric strategic partnership can’t avert this.

Russia is ready, however, so this will all be for naught.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 20:05

Iconic Port Au Prince Hotel That Hosted Kennedys, Mick Jagger, Burns Down During Gang War

Things aren't exactly going splendidly in Haiti...

Case in point? A historic hotel in Port au Prince, once a symbol of the country’s cultural and intellectual life, was destroyed by fire over the weekend as gang violence continues to overwhelm the capital, according to Bloomberg.

The Hotel Oloffson, a 90-year-old gingerbread-style building in Port-au-Prince, was “burned to the ground,” according to Richard Morse, a musician whose band RAM once performed there regularly. The cause of the blaze remains unclear, but the hotel sat in an area now heavily controlled by armed gangs.

Bloomberg writes that, originally converted into a hotel in the 1930s, the Oloffson rose to fame during Haiti’s tourism boom in the 1970s and ’80s. It hosted famous guests including Mick Jagger and Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, and even served as the inspiration for Graham Greene’s novel The Comedians.

Local outlet Gazette Haiti lamented the loss, calling it the erasure of “an entire heritage” and “a symbol of Haiti’s urban and intellectual identity.”

The area surrounding the hotel has been inaccessible since March due to violent clashes between police and gangs. According to the United Nations, gangs now control 90% of Port-au-Prince, with over 4,000 homicides reported this year.

Haiti is facing a severe security crisis as gangs now control about 90% of Port-au-Prince, according to the UN. Gang violence, including killings, kidnappings, and clashes with police, has left over 4,000 dead in 2025 and forced thousands to flee their homes. Once-thriving neighborhoods have become battlegrounds.

This surge in violence stems from years of political instability, economic collapse, and weak governance. With little state control and no functioning parliament, gangs have filled the power vacuum, seizing territory and terrorizing communities. Many areas are now cut off from food, healthcare, and basic services.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 19:40

Tuition Hikes And Spending Cuts - What's Behind The Financial Woes Of US Universities?

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Colleges and universities across the country, both public and private, face financial challenges ahead of the upcoming academic year, regardless of their size, wealth, and prestige.

Layoffs or hiring and wage freezes were recently announced at affluent schools including Cornell, Temple, Northwestern, Duke, Notre Dame, Emory, the University systems in California, Maryland and Nebraska, and the University of Kansas, according to their respective websites.

Tuition hikes, meanwhile, are planned at public universities this fall in Alabama, Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, Oklahoma, and Oregon, in addition to several private schools, including Brigham Young, Stanford, Marquette, Georgetown, and most of the Ivy League institutions, their leaders announced in recent weeks.

Pennsylvania university system trustees announced May 22 that seven campuses will close within two years, and five more are still in scope to eventually shut down if enrollment doesn’t increase. Ten of the campuses reviewed had maintained courses with fewer than seven students, and nine campuses had fewer than 660 students. Collectively, the dozen campuses tallied a $29 million operating deficit in 2024.

With fewer prospective students due to the post-Great Recession birth dearth, fading public confidence in higher education, and federal funding cuts to colleges and universities, more schools in the years ahead will be forced to eliminate programs, raise prices, merge with other institutions, or close entirely unless they drastically change the way they do business, policy experts say.

“They’ll need to make these hard decisions,” Peter Wood, president of the National Association of Scholars and a former tenured university professor and college provost, told The Epoch Times. “The real story is these institutions die hard. They don’t believe they are going to be subject to the laws of nature.”

The main building at Penn State Great Valley School of Graduate Professional Studies in Malvern, Pa., in September 2018. Facing a $29 million deficit, Pennsylvania university system trustees announced May 22, 2025, that seven campuses will close within two years, with five more at risk if enrollment doesn’t rise. David Kriz/CC BY-SA 4.0 Not Enough Students to Go Around

U.S. higher education enrollment, which sat at around 20 million, decreased by more than 1 million students between 2012 and 2022, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. A surprise spike in enrollments was reported for the 2022–23 school year, but that was mainly due to an increase in online enrollment and college-level course offerings at high schools.

The “enrollment cliff” has become a common phrase in higher education. The U.S. birth rate had already been declining steadily since 1990, and the Great Recession, which spanned from late 2007 to mid-2009, further exacerbated that trend. The number of babies born annually in this nation decreased from 4.2 million in 2008 to 3.6 million in 2020, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and a 2023 research report from the Trellis Company, a nonprofit research firm.

Moreover, the Trellis report said, the college-going population is expected to decrease by 15 percent between 2025 and 2029.

Even though listed tuition prices at most schools have only increased at or below the rate of inflation since 2018, operating expenses and employee health insurance costs have skyrocketed. The average private college or university cuts its sticker price in half to maintain enrollment numbers even if they are running in the red, according to a December 2024 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The report summarizes data from the National Association of College and University Business Officers.

In addition, the report said, 62 percent of students are enrolling in college the semester after their high school graduation, an 8 percent drop over the past decade, and an indication of “growing skepticism among the public about the value of higher education.”

There are already too many schools competing for a shrinking number of students. Between the 2022–23 and 2023–24 school years, the National Center for Education Statistics reported that 99 higher education institutions closed.

The list of 2025 closures includes St. Andrews University in North Carolina, Limestone University in South Carolina, Eastern Nazarene College in Massachusetts, Fontbonne University in Missouri, Northland College in Wisconsin, and Paier College in Connecticut.

Several colleges recently announced they are closing, including St. Andrews University in North Carolina, Limestone University in South Carolina, Eastern Nazarene College in Massachusetts, Fontbonne University in Missouri, and Northland College in Wisconsin. official college websites/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

There are still about 2 million unfilled slots across more than 5,000 U.S. colleges and universities, “not even close to equilibrium,” Gary Stocker, principal at data analytics company College Viability, previously told The Epoch Times.

Career, Cultural, and Technological Changes

The revived national interest in career and technical education also detracts from four-year college programs. A glance at community colleges and vocational training institutes across the nation indicates abundant certificate programs and “stackable credentials” toward college degrees where students can obtain workforce credentials in the health care, manufacturing, technology, agriculture, and hospitality industries in 15 weeks or less.

Wood, of the National Association of Scholars, said despite shrinking enrollment and low career prospects, too many institutions refuse to cut majors that have no return on investment.

Many programs, he added, originated as classical humanities such as English literature or history but evolved into ideological training sessions for subjects including “queer and transgender studies” or “colonialism” while administrative staffing to push and police those cultural shifts has ballooned in recent years, often with federal funding.

Under President Donald Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism, DEI, and transgender ideology, federal grants to several elite universities have been cut or frozen, and the 15 percent cap on indirect costs—such as administrative support, laboratory maintenance, and utilities—for research projects funded by the National Institutes of Health is intended to eliminate administrative bloat, Wood said.

Universities that the federal government deems have misused grants now face tuition hikes and/or cuts to maintain programs if a share of federal funding is cut, Wood said. Several of them have billions in their endowments, but those funds are often earmarked for specific scholarships, faculty chairs, or facility improvements and can’t be used to maintain administrator positions or discount tuition at the wholesale level.

Less prestigious schools that have small endowments are more likely to save money by putting off facility maintenance, even though they would be better off in the long term by cutting some academic programs and staff, Wood said.

The cost of student services at most residential schools is also rapidly increasing as schools emphasize the need for more counseling services and expensive interventions, Wood added.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 19:15

33 Tons Of Gold, Silver Concentrate Hijacked In Mexico

Armed thieves in Mexico hijacked a truck transporting 33 tons of gold and silver concentrate belonging to the Mexican mining firm Grupo Minero Bacis, local media reported. The precious metals heist underscores a surge in highway robberies across the third-world cartel-plagued country—just south of the U.S. southern border—amid rising gold and silver prices driven by global macroeconomic uncertainty.

El Universal said the assailants blocked the tractor-trailer on a stretch of highway near Guadalajara and assaulted the driver and security, and held them hostage for nearly 1.5 hours.

"A group of organized criminals aboard two vehicles robbed a truck belonging to Fletes Durango SA de CV, which was loaded with at least 33 tons of gold and silver concentrate belonging to Grupo Minero Bacis SA de CV, bound for the port of Manzanillo," Grupo Minero wrote in a report. 

Grupo Minero Bacis is owned by José Jaime Gutiérrez Núñez, former president of the Mexican Mining Chamber. The miner operates the El Herrero gold and silver project—an advanced exploration and semi-processing operation that produces precious metal concentrate for both domestic use and international export. 

While the truck was later recovered, the trailer with tons of gold and silver concentrate was never found. Local media identified the assailants as "organized criminals"—a term often synonymous with drug cartel gangsters.

The incident highlights the surge in highway robberies across the third world country, which now occur every 50 minutes, with cargo thefts rising over 30% in early 2025 compared to the previous year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 18:50

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 17-18

DoE Warns Of 100x Increase In Black-Out Risk By 2030 On Same Day As Trump Energy Security EO

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The planned retirement of more than 100 gigawatts of power generation capacity by the end of the decade could increase the risk of blackouts in the United States by 100 times, the Department of Energy said in a July 7 statement.

“Allowing 104 GW of firm generation to retire by 2030—without timely replacement—could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation,” the DOE said.

“Modeling shows annual outage hours could increase from single digits today to more than 800 hours per year. Such a surge would leave millions of households and businesses vulnerable. We must renew a focus on firm generation and continue to reverse radical green ideology in order to address this risk.”

Firm power generation refers to power that can be generated at all times and includes coal, natural gas, and nuclear. This is in contrast to intermittent power sources such as wind and solar, which are dependent on factors like weather.

The warning is part of the DOE’s Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security report, which criticized the “radical green agenda of past administrations” for existing generation retirements and delays in adding new firm power generation capacities, according to the statement.

This will lead to a “growing mismatch” between electricity demand and supply, driven especially by demand from AI-driven data center growth, the DOE said in the statement.

If the current schedule of planned retirements and incremental power additions remain unchanged, the country’s electric grid will be “unable to meet expected demand for AI, data centers, manufacturing and industrialization while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans,” the agency added in the statement.

Continuing on the present course will undermine America’s economic growth, leadership in new technologies, and national security, the DOE said.

While the 104 GW in retirements are set to be replaced by 209 GW of new power generation by 2030, only 22 GW of these replacements are set to be firm generation, according to the department.

“The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in the statement.

“In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power. President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure.”

The DOE report is in response to President Donald Trump’s April 8 executive order calling for strengthening the reliability and security of America’s power grid.

To ensure reliable electric generation in the country and meet the growing demand for electricity, America’s power grid “must utilize all available power generation resources, particularly those secure, redundant fuel supplies that are capable of extended operations,” the order states.

The DOE issued its warning following a May report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which cautioned that parts of the United States could struggle to meet electricity demand this summer.

The NERC report cited intermittent energy sources, such as solar and wind, as posing a potential risk to the reliability of the power supply.

Protecting US Energy Security

The DOE report on grid reliability came out on the same day that Trump signed an executive order directing his administration to end “market distorting subsidies for unreliable, foreign controlled energy sources.”

The order directs the secretary of the Treasury to terminate clean electricity production and investment tax credits granted to solar and wind facilities, the White House said in a July 7 fact sheet.

It also directs the secretary of the interior to revise rules to eliminate preferential treatment given to these facilities compared to dispatchable, firm power generation sources.

“Unreliable wind and solar energy sources displace affordable, dispatchable energy, compromise America’s electric grid, and denigrate the beauty of our Nation’s natural landscape,” the fact sheet stated.

“Reliance on so-called ‘green’ subsidies threatens national security by making the United States dependent on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries.”

Some renewable energy policies are already on the chopping block after Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill into law on July 4.

The bill terminates multiple clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act signed by former President Joe Biden, with some cuts taking effect as early as this year.

The electric vehicle tax credit is now scheduled to end by the end of September. Tax credits for clean energy projects will only be available if the projects are operational by Dec. 31, 2027, or Jan. 1, 2028.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 18:25

Iran 'Rapidly' Beefs Up Air Defenses With Chinese Help After Israel Ceasefire

Via Middle East Eye

Iran has taken possession of Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries as Tehran rapidly moves to rebuild defensives destroyed by Israel during their recent 12-day conflict, sources have told Middle East Eye.

The deliveries of Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries occurred after a de-facto truce was struck between Iran and Israel on June 24, an Arab official familiar with the intelligence told MEE.

Via AFP

Another Arab official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive intelligence, said that the US's Arab allies were aware of Tehran's efforts to "back up and reinforce" its air defenses and that the White House had been informed of Iran's progress. 

The officials did not say how many surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, Iran had received from China since the end of the fighting. However, one of the Arab officials said that Iran was paying for the SAMs with oil shipments.

China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, and the US Energy Information Administration suggested in a report in May that nearly 90 percent of Iran’s crude and condensate exports flow to Beijing.

For several years, China has imported record amounts of Iranian oil despite US sanctions, using countries such as Malaysia as a transshipment hub to mask the crude's origin.

"The Iranians engage in creative ways of trading," the second Arab official told MEE. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump likely heavily discussed Iran and its nuclear program when they meet on Monday. 

MEE reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication. 

Deepening relationship

The shipments mark a deepening of Beijing’s relationship with Tehran and come as some in the West noted that China and Russia appeared to keep a distance from Iran amid Israel's unprecedented attacks.

Israel achieved air superiority over Iran's skies during the conflict, destroying ballistic missile launch pads and assassinating Iranian generals and scientists.

Despite this, the government endured the strikes. It was also able to continue firing ballistic missiles at Israel, decimating several sensitive sites in Tel Aviv and Haifa before a ceasefire took hold.

In the late 1980s, Iran received HY-2 Silkworm cruise missiles from China via North Korea when it was at war with Iraq.

The Islamic Republic used the missiles to attack Kuwait and strike a US-flagged oil tanker during the so-called tanker wars. In 2010, there were reports that Iran received HQ9 anti-aircraft missiles from China.

Iran is believed to use Russia's S-300, which is capable of engaging aircraft and UAVs in addition to providing some cruise and ballistic missile defense capability, as well as older Chinese systems and locally produced batteries such as the Khordad series and the Bavar-373.

These systems are believed to have a limited ability to shoot down the US F-35 stealth warplane that Israel operates.

China already sells its HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defence systems to Pakistan. Egypt is also understood to have China’s HQ-9 system, according to reports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 17:00

Trump Extends Federal Hiring Freeze Until October

President Donald Trump issued a memorandum on July 7 extending the federal hiring freeze until Oct. 15, while maintaining exemptions for positions related to the armed forces and public safety.

Trump initially imposed a hiring freeze in January, at the start of his second term. It was later extended through July 15.

The president has now ordered another extension as part of an effort to improve the efficiency of federal agencies.

As Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in the recent memo, Trump stated that “no federal civilian position that is presently vacant may be filled, and no new position may be created,” except for roles that are exempted or required by law.

Federal agencies are prohibited from “contracting outside the federal government to circumvent the intent of this memorandum,” while heads of agencies “shall seek efficient use of existing personnel and funds to improve public services and the delivery of those services,” the order stated.

The hiring freeze does not apply to military personnel or positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, and public safety.

It also exempted positions in the executive office of the president.

The memo states that the Office of Personnel Management may continue to grant exemptions from this policy where necessary and that federal agencies may relocate or reassign staff “to meet the highest priority needs” or maintain essential services.

The hiring freeze that began in January was followed by mass layoffs across several federal agencies, with thousands of federal employees opting to leave under a buyout program offered by the Trump administration.

Among the affected agencies is the Department of Veterans Affairs, which announced on July 7 that it has laid off nearly 17,000 workers of its original workforce of 484,000 since January.

The agency stated that another 12,000 employees are expected to leave by the end of September “through normal attrition, voluntary early retirement authority, or the deferred resignation program.”

These reductions in the workforce occurred in the wake of the Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts to eliminate fraud and reduce federal spending.

The move has triggered legal action from several states, labor unions, and nonprofit organizations, which alleged that the Trump administration failed to obtain the necessary congressional authorization.

On July 1, District Judge Melissa DuBose ordered a halt to the overhaul of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), as the judge found that the layoffs implemented in April likely ran counter to federal law.

The judge granted a preliminary injunction sought by 19 states and the District of Columbia to block the workforce reductions at HHS, ruling that the agency’s actions were “arbitrary and capricious.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had earlier planned to lay off about 10,000 workers as part of a restructuring plan to improve the agency’s efficiency.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 16:40

Saudi Arabia Keeps Executing Foreigners On Drug Charges At 'Horrifying' Rate

Via Middle East Eye

There has been a surge in executions in Saudi Arabia, particularly in relation to drug offences, a new report published by Amnesty International on Monday has revealed.

The kingdom executed 1,816 people between January 2014 and June 2025, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. Of those, nearly one third (597) were for drug-related offences, which may not be punishable by death under international human rights law and norms. Around three quarters of those executed for drug offences were foreign nationals.

Screen grab from video allegedly showing a public beheading in Saudi Arabia. (YouTube/tnycman)

"We are witnessing a truly horrifying trend, with foreign nationals being put to death at a startling rate for crimes that should never carry the death penalty," Amnesty’s Kristine Beckerle said. 

Executions in Saudi Arabia have risen steadily over the past year and a half. In 2024, the kingdom executed 345 people - the highest annual figure that Amnesty has recorded in over three decades. 

So far this year, 180 people have been executed. Last month alone, 46 executions were carried out, 37 of which were for drug-related offences. 

They were made up of nationals from Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia and Syria. In January 2021, Riyadh had announced a moratorium on drug related-executions, but that was lifted in November the following year.

'Cruel, inhuman and degrading'

Last month, inmates and their relatives told Middle East Eye that executions could take place “any day”. The men were all from Ethiopia and Somalia and had been convicted of drug trafficking. 

“They have told us to say our goodbyes,” one of the convicted men told MEE. “We were told that executions would begin shortly after Eid al-Adha (5-9 June), and now they have started.”

In its report, Amnesty interviewed the families of 13 inmates on death row, as well as community members and consulate officials. It also reviewed court documents. 

Based on the testimonies and evidence, it concluded that limited levels of education and disadvantaged socio-economic status of foreign nationals increased their risk of exploitation and lack of legal representation. 

The family of 27-year-old Khalid Mohammed Ibrahim, who was put on death row on alleged drug trafficking charges, told MEE it had been a harrowing seven years for the family since he was arrested.

“He tried to enter the country through Yemen,” his older brother Muleta said. “A border guard encouraged him to tell his jailers that he was a drug smuggler, saying it would get him sent to court and quickly cleared since there was no evidence. He believed them.”

In addition to drug offences, Amnesty reported on the use of the death penalty against Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority on “terrorism” related charges. 

The rights group said that despite Shia communities making up around 12 percent of the Saudi population, they accounted for around 42 percent (120 of 286) of terrorism-related executions since 2014. 

The report added that seven young men currently at risk of execution were under the age of 18 at the time of their alleged offences. 

Imposing the death penalty on those who were minors at the time of the alleged crime is prohibited under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child - a treaty which Saudi Arabia is a state party to. “The death penalty is the ultimate cruel, inhuman and degrading punishment, it should not be used under any circumstances,” said Beckerle.

“In addition to immediately establishing a moratorium on executions, pending full abolition of the death penalty, Saudi Arabia’s authorities must amend national laws to remove the death penalty and commute all death sentences.

“Saudi Arabia’s allies in the international community must exert urgent pressure on the authorities to halt their execution spree and uphold international human rights obligations.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 16:20

Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Plunges As Student Loans Soar: Consumer Credit Update

One month after consumer credit unexpectedly jumped the most in 2025, when it spiked by $17.9 billion (since revised to $16.9 billion) in the month of April, moments ago the Fed released its monthly consumer credit report which showed that the yoyo action in credit-fueled consumer spending continued, and in May while total consumer credit rose a modest $5.1 billion, half of the $10.55 billion expected, it was all on the back of non-revolving credit (i.e., student and car loans). That's because revolving (or credit card) debt slumped by $3.5 billion, the first drop in 2025, and the second biggest monthly decline since covid.

Starting with nonrevolving credit, the monthly change remained sturdy, with the total rising to a new record high of $3.749 trillion...

... although the composition is curious, with auto loans actually shrinking in Q1 by $8.5 billion to $1.555 trillion, while student loans - which for years had flatlined thanks to BIden's repayment moratorium - soared by $27 billion in Q1 to a new record high just over $1.8 trillion, their biggest quarterly increase since the $34.1 billion spent on stuff lessons during the covid pandemic.

But, as noted above, it was revolving credit that was the standout in May and as shown below, credit card debt unexpectedly shrank by $3.5 billion to just under $1.299 trillion. 

Such sudden drops in credit card debt are always concerning and indicative of either a sharp reversal looming in the economy, or households who are stuffed with debt and no longer want - or can get - more credit for purchases. 

We expect to find out which is the right answer in the coming months. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 15:54