Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in October, up 0.7% from September’s preliminary pace and up 1.5% last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report October existing home sales on Thursday. The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

There is also a discussion of R* in the article.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2025. Excerpt:

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated. Participants further noted that available indicators suggested that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace. They observed that job gains had slowed this year and that the unemployment rate had edged up but remained low through August. Participants assessed that more recent indicators were consistent with these developments. In addition, they judged that downside risks to employment had risen in recent months. Against this backdrop, many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, some supported such a decision but could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range, and several were against lowering the target range. Those who favored or could have supported a lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting generally observed that such a decision was appropriate because downside risks to employment had increased in recent months and upside risks to inflation had diminished since earlier this year or were little changed. Those who preferred to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting expressed concern that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective had stalled this year, as inflation readings increased, or that more confidence was needed that inflation was on a course toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, while also noting that longer-term inflation expectations could rise should inflation not return to 2 percent in a timely manner. One participant agreed with the need to move toward a more neutral monetary policy stance but preferred a 1/2 percentage point reduction at this meeting. In light of their assessment that reserve balances had reached or were approaching ample levels, almost all participants noted that it was appropriate to conclude the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings on December 1 or that they could support such a decision.

In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive. Some participants assessed that the Committee's policy stance would be restrictive even after a potential 1/4 percentage point reduction in the policy rate at this meeting. By contrast, some participants pointed to the resilience of economic activity, supportive financial conditions, or estimates of short-term real interest rates as indicating that the stance of monetary policy was not clearly restrictive. In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting. Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period. Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year. Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data. br /> emphasis added

The post The Rich People Who Own the Media Want Generations to Fight, Not Classes appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Rebound After 4 Day Slide With Nvidia Earnings On Deck

After 4 days of steep declines, futures are finally higher ahead of Nvidia earnings, with AI bulls hoping for strong numbers to provide respite from the market selloff. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher and Nasdaq futs gains 0.4%, both bracing for big moves later: NVDA alone has accounted for almost 20% of S&P 500 gains this year. FOMC minutes and a batch of retailer earnings are also due. Pre-mkt, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: NVDA (+1.4%) leads gains while AAPL (-0.1bp) is dragging the other end; semis are higher, too as the AI theme is seeing a pre-mkt bid. Cyclicals are flat versus Defensives with Fins/Materials and HC leading their respective factors higher. The dollar edges higher, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard; USDJPY spiked above 156 as the yen is flooded with devaluation fears again. Treasury 10-year yield dips 2bps to 4.11% even as the yield curve bear steepens. In other assets, Bitcoin’s slide is continuing. According to JPM, the market setup appears to be poised for an ‘Everything Rally’ as the market receives new macro data (Fed Mins and Mtge Apps) and old data (Trade) before the NVDA print. Today's US economic calendar includes the August trade balance (8:30am); the Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stock are mostly higher (Alphabet +1.6%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.05%, Microsoft -0.09%, Apple -0.1%).

• Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) tumbles 37% after the company’s Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle-cell disease met one primary endpoint but missed another.
• Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) is up 2% as its plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid.
• DoorDash (DASH) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, with the analyst noting that the food delivery company’s annual forecast helped lower expectations, providing flexibility for both long-term investments and upside to estimates.
• Dycom Industries (DY) gains 6% after saying it will acquire Power Solutions, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) shares are up 11% after the home furniture retailer reported both sales and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
• Lowe’s (LOW) rises 6% as adjusted EPS and gross margin for the third quarter topped expectations, and comparative sales, while short of the consensus estimate, were better than feared after Home Depot’s report on Tuesday.
• Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) sinks 19% on the green hydrogen company’s plans for a private offering of $375 million in convertible senior notes due 2033.
• SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) soars 69% after the WSJ reported that Adobe is nearing a $1.9 billion deal to acquire the company.
• Unity Software (U) gains 8% after the company announced it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.

In corporate news, South Korean antitrust regulators were said to have visited the Seoul offices of Arm Holdings this week as part of an inquiry into its licensing practices, following a complaint by Qualcomm. The US government is providing $1 billion in backing to Constellation Energy’s plan to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

The S&P 500 has lost more than 3% this month as the tech giants that powered much of 2025’s gains came under pressure. Nvidia’s results, due after the close, are seen as a bellwether for whether lofty valuations and massive capital spending in artificial intelligence remain justified.

For Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, the recent retreat “could easily morph into a 10% to 15% correction” for the S&P 500. “I’m not sure that even very good results from Nvidia would be enough to prevent that,” he said.

Comments at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore are largely cautious, with Goldman Sachs President John Waldron saying the market could pull back further, Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond talking about a “healthy correction” and Algebris Investments’ CEO Davide Serra warning of a “significant correction” for big AI stocks.

Others are staying positive. Fidelity International fund manager Joseph Zhang sees AI spending and usage as “still in the early stage of the party.” As for Nvidia numbers, analysts are estimating more than 50% growth for both net income and sales for the quarter (more in our full preview to follow). And despite all the talk of stretched tech valuations, the stock is now trading at about 29x forward earnings, far below the 10-year average of 35x.

The big question is how the market will interpret the numbers. JPMorgan strategists see room for Nvidia to zoom higher on a beat-and-raise and recommend buying call spreads. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, note the stock has posted negative one-week returns following four of the last five earnings releases. The options markets implies a 7% swing in either direction post-earnings.

Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Meta — which account for more than 40% of Nvidia’s sales — are projected to boost combined AI spending 34% to $440 billion over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The risk is that such projections could falter if major AI players, including OpenAI, scale back their commitments. Options suggest an earnings-related move of about 7%, signaling the big potential impact on the market if the results deviate.

The recent slide has made the stock more attractive, said Louis Puga, a fund manager at Societe de Gestion Prevoir and holder of Nvidia shares. “Paying 26 times for Nvidia’s next-year profits, sorry but I don’t see a bubble there,” Puga said. “We are like at the start of a gold rush: Nvidia is supplying the shovels and it doesn’t matter who finds the gold.”

Elsewhere, Elon Musk returned to the White House on Tuesday evening in a sign that tensions between Trump and the world’s richest man have thawed. Trump also gave Saudi Arabia’s crown prince a lavish reception in Washington. Trump said he thinks he’s identified his choice to be the next chair of the Fed, while asserting people are holding him back from firing Powell.

Investors will also be watching the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month. The unwinding of expectations for a December interest-rate cut has added to the market malaise, with traders now seeing less than a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction. 

“We expect the minutes to show a deeply divided Fed with concerns over a weaker employment picture, but sticky inflation,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies.

European equities edged higher on Wednesday with media and mining stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are utilities and real estate shares. Stoxx 600 gain 0.1% to 562.58 with 222 members down, 370 up, and 8 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Rotork shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since early August, after the valve manufacturer announced a new £50m share buyback and delivered a “very healthy performance” in the four months to the end of October, according to Jefferies
• NKT shares jump as much as 12%, the most since April and to a fresh record high, after the Danish cable manufacturer reported its latest earnings and presented new 2030 targets
• WH Smith shares rise as much as 4.7%, reversing an initial slide, as analysts find some positives amid the publication of an independent review by Deloitte that led to the resignation of CEO Carl Cowling
• SMA Solar surges as much as 13%, hitting the highest since June 2024, as Jefferies upgrades the renewable energy equipment firm to buy, saying it has “weathered the worst”
• European defense companies slipped in Wednesday lunchtime trading as Politico reported that the White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will bring war with Ukraine to an end
• Enel shares drop as much as 2.4% while Endesa falls as much as 3.1% after the pair were cut to underperform from sector perform at RBC, with expectations “looking too optimistic” and valuations too high
• Kering shares drop as much as 4%, most in nearly two weeks, after Chief Executive Officer Luca de Meo said the company must reduce its reliance on its flagship Gucci brand
• Vivendi slumped on Wednesday after Le Monde reported that billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s eponymous holding company could escape having to pay anything to compensate minority shareholders over the recent split of the group
• Interparfums shares fall as much as 11% to the lowest level since October 2020, after the French maker of personal care products didn’t provide a sales forecast for next year on the back of the current economic and geopolitical backdrop

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for a four-day losing streak as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and lingering doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with Samsung, Xiaomi and TSMC among the biggest drags. Losses in South Korea and Australia offset gains in China.  Hang Seng Tech Index falls about 1% and Kospi drifts lower. Japanese and mainland China indexes are broadly steady.

In FX, the dollar edges marginally firmer, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard.

In rates, treasury 10-year yield hovers little changed around 4.11% ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction and FOMC meeting minutes release; German gilts are about 2bps richer on the day; gilt curve pivots steeper around little-changed 10-year sector. Australian yields ease 1-2 bps across the curve. JGB futures pare losses after 20-year auction draws demand in line with 12-month average. UK front-end outperforms as more easing by Bank of England is priced in after October UK services inflation slowed more than forecast; UK 2-year yields down around 2.5bp. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bond sale at 1pm, with $19 billion 10-year TIPS ahead Thursday. WI 20-year yield near 4.705% is ~20bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 1.2bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures are near $64.70; gold rises to near $4,090 an ounce. Bitcoin slides below $91k as investors pulled more than half a billion dollars from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, the largest single-day outflow since the fund’s debut. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% from a record high set in October, entering oversold territory on a technical RSI measure.

The US economic calendar includes August trade balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
• VIX -0.8 points at 23.9
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1221.39
• euro -0.1% at $1.1569
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.39/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he would formally designate Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally after meeting with Mohammed bin Salman. The countries signed several agreements and made progress on a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal. BBG
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials. Axios
• Trump posted "Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine...We MUST have one Federal Standard instead": Truth Social.
• Scott Bessent said Trump will interview top three candidates for Fed chair after Thanksgiving and he may announce his pick before Christmas. BBG
• Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dipped slightly in September from record highs, though biggest holder Japan increased its portfolio. BBG
• Tesla CEO Musk and NVIDIA CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th: Reuters.
• Elon Musk's xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
• China has reportedly reimposed an import ban on Japanese seafood just weeks after lifting it, and warns Tokyo of ‘further action’ if Takaichi doesn’t budge on Taiwan stand. SCMP
• Japanese government bond yields have hit multiyear highs, driven by fears that the government could unveil a large economic stimulus package that will place even more stress on the country’s ailing fiscal position. WSJ
• Thoughts into NVDA (Goldman) - We have positioning 8 out of 10.  Stock has been consolidating for the better part of ~4-months with the stock at the same levels it was before print in August as investors digest rapidly evolving AI news flow, with an uptick in caution around the theme in recent weeks ...   which points to somewhat cleaner positioning into these set of numbers. Investors likely looking for another beat/raise print vs consensus Revenues of ~$55bn in Oct and ~$62bn in January – for context, Nvidia has delivered more "normalized" beat sizes lately (e.g. beat topline by ~1-3% the last few qtrs). Some investor debate on the likely “incrementality” of this print given recent commentary from NVDA at GTC (e.g. ~$500bn) -- on this point, the stock has only moved +/- ~1-3% (t+1) on 3 of 4 print.
• UK Oct CPI was inline on core at +3.4% (down from +3.5% in Sept) while services ran a bit behind the Street at +4.5% (down from +4.7% and vs. the Street +4.6%), cementing expectations for a BOE rate cut next month. WSJ
• Target trimmed its 2025 profit forecast (TGT -195bps premkt), signaling that its turnaround push is going to take more time as it deals with markdowns and soft demand. Shares fell premarket. Lowe’s reported profit that beat (LOW +558bps premkt), helped by consumer spending on home renovations. BBG
• JPMorgan's 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.

Trade/Tariffs

• The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings. ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz. Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi's fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again. KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
• Japan's government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
• Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses - but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings. European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%).  At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.

FX

• DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
• Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark - a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
• GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week's budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
• Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.

Fixed Income

• Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning's CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
• However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn't deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
• Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
• USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
• Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan'26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
• Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
• Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
• EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
• US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
• US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
• US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
• Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

Geopolitics: Asia

• The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
• China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.

US event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 14 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Aug Trade Balance, est. -60.4b, prior -78.31b
• 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Bank Speakers

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Bank Regulation
• 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 2:00 pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The selloff has showed no sign of letting up in the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since August, whilst futures are down another -0.21% this morning. Several factors are driving the losses, but the biggest have been concerns about AI valuations, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) edging closer to technical correction territory, having now shed -7.59% since its October peak. Moreover, sentiment took another hit from weak data releases and earnings reports, which further dampened investors’ optimism. Indeed, there were mounting signs of financial stress across the board, with the VIX index of volatility closing at 24.69 (+2.31pts), whilst US IG spreads (+1bp) reached their widest level since June.

Those AI concerns were front and centre, which comes at a pivotal moment given Nvidia (-2.81%) are reporting their own earnings results after the US close tonight. For context, Nvidia’s shares are now down -12.4% from their peak on October 29, albeit still at a level that was seen as recently as October 16. So that’s the biggest fall in its share price since the Liberation Day turmoil earlier this year. Interestingly, it was announced yesterday that Nvidia would invest up to $10bn in Anthropic, with Microsoft investing up to $5bn, in a deal that will see Anthropic purchase $30bn of Azure compute capacity. But unlike several recent AI deals which led to an immediate rally, there wasn’t a reaction in the share price of either following the news, with Microsoft (-2.70%) also underperforming on the day. So it goes to show how sentiment has turned more negative in the last few weeks, with the circular AI deals being treated with increasing caution as the conversation around a potential bubble has gathered pace.

In the meantime, that negative mood was exacerbated by several other catalysts. First, the crypto losses didn’t help, and yesterday saw Bitcoin briefly move below $90,000 on an intraday basis for the first time since April. Admittedly, it managed to recover by the close +0.68% higher on the day, but Bitcoin is still down -26% since its October peak, and the fear is that if retail investors are suffering crypto losses, then that could force them to sell other assets (like equities) to meet margin calls, thus exacerbating the broader selling pressure.

Alongside that, weak data and earnings continued to hit risk appetite. For instance, the ADP’s latest weekly employment estimate showed private payrolls were down -2.5k per week over the four weeks ending November 1. So that cemented fears that the labour market was struggling to hold up, although we should get a better picture tomorrow from the September jobs report. Otherwise, we also heard from Home Depot (-6.02%), whose shares fell back after they cut their outlook for the full-year, which in turn added to broader fears about the consumer outlook. So collectively, the drip-feed of more negative headlines helped to push risk assets down throughout the day.

Against that backdrop, the selloff continued across several asset classes. So the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posted a 4th consecutive decline, meaning it closed -3.97% beneath its recent peak. In fact, that marks the biggest peak-to-trough decline for the index since May, back when it was still recovering from the Liberation Day turmoil. Meanwhile in Europe, there were also heavy losses, with the STOXX 600 (-1.72%) posting its biggest daily decline since August, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.74%), the CAC 40 (-1.86%) and the FTSE MIB (-2.12%). That said, given how much the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) were responsible for the US equity declines, it’s worth noting that small-caps had a relatively good day, with the Russell 2000 actually up by +0.31%. Likewise, the S&P 500 itself also saw a divergent performance, with almost half of its constituents rising despite the overall losses, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 down just -0.02%.

Given the growing magnitude of the selloff, investors moved to price in a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts again. For instance, the likelihood of a December rate cut moved back up to 45%, having been at 41% the day before. And in turn, that meant front-end Treasury yields rallied, with the 2yr yield (-3.7bps) falling to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) also saw a decent decline to 4.11%. Interestingly, President Trump said on the next Fed Chair that “I think I already know my choice”, although we’re uncertain as to who that is. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the favourite with a 46% chance, and he’s currently the Director of the National Economic Council. He’s followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who’s given a 19% chance.

Meanwhile in Europe, attention will be back on the UK this morning, as the CPI release for October is out shortly after we go to press. There’s also just a week left until the government’s Budget announcement, and our UK economist published a preview yesterday looking at what to expect (link here). He thinks that this will be a second historic tax-raising budget, with Chancellor Reeves delivering nearly £35bn in fiscal consolidation. There’s also a Budget survey aimed at market participants asking what you’re expecting, which you can fill in here. Ahead of that, gilt yields mostly moved higher yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.8bps to 4.55%. But they underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr bund yields (-0.6bps) coming down slightly.

Overnight in Asia, the equity declines have mostly continued, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.16%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.16%) and the KOSPI (-0.96%). Meanwhile in Japan, there’ve been fresh losses for JGBs, with long-end yields up to multi-year highs this morning. For instance, the 10yr JGB yield (+1.8bps) has rise to 1.75%, which is its highest level since 2008, and the 30yr yield (+2.9bps) is up to 3.32%, its highest since that maturity was first issued. The moves come as investors anticipate further issuance as new PM Sanae Takaichi is expected to unveil a stimulus plan. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards further declines, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.21%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both lower this morning.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s October meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Miran, Barkin and Williams. Data releases will include the UK CPI report for October.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 08:43

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, revised.

August exports were $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased slightly and imports decreased in August. 

Exports were up 1.9% year-over-year; imports were down 1.9% year-over-year.
Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $18.9 billion from $27.8 billion a year ago.

This Was A Major Red Flag In 2008, And Now It Is Happening Again!

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The alarms are getting even louder each week.  It has become exceedingly clear that the U.S. economy has entered a crisis that is similar to what we experienced in 2008 and 2009, and a lot of people are really starting to freak out.  For those that cannot see the stunning parallels between the Great Recession and what we are going through now, I don’t know what to say to them.  There are a lot of people out there that simply choose to believe whatever they want to believe no matter what the evidence indicates.  In this case, all of the evidence is pointing in a single direction.

When foreclosure filings started to spike prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, that was a major red flag.

Now it is happening again.

In fact, during the month of October 2025 foreclosure filings were 19 percent higher than they were in October 2024…

In October alone, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings — the first step in the process, when a lender warns a borrower they’re in default. That’s up three percent from September and 19 percent from a year ago.

‘Foreclosure activity continued its steady upward trend in October — the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases,’ said ATTOM CEO Rob Barber.

The rise is stirring uncomfortable memories of 2008, when a wave of foreclosures triggered the worst housing crash in modern US history.

Read the second paragraph in that quote again.

Foreclosure activity has increased for eight consecutive months.

That is what we call a trend.

Some of the markets that were once the hottest are now seeing the highest rates of foreclosure filings…

States with the worst foreclosure rates were Florida (one in every 1,829 housing units with a foreclosure filing), South Carolina (one in every 1,982), Illinois (one in every 2,570), Delaware (on in every 2,710), and Nevada (one in ever 2,747).

Among metro areas with populations of a million or more, Tampa posted the highest foreclosure rate at one in every 1,373 housing units.

Following Tampa were Jacksonville (one in every 1,576 housing units), Orlando (one in every 1,703), Riverside (one in every 1,983), and Cleveland (one in every 2,114).

What a mess.

The good news is that it looks like there will soon be a lot of homes on the market in Florida.

We live at a time when our nation is facing a very serious housing affordability crisis, and this has hit our young adults particularly hard.

The following chart which was once posted by Charlie Kirk demonstrates how home ownership among young adults has plunged in recent years…

These days, a lot of young adults are convinced that they will never be able to become homeowners.

Others that have really stretched themselves financially to purchase homes are now being hit with foreclosure notices.

I really detest what Wall Street has done to the housing market, and now we are reaping the consequences.

Renting is the primary alternative to home ownership, but renters are having a really hard time right now too.

As Daisy Luther has aptly pointed out, vast numbers of renters are being ruthlessly evicted from their homes in this very harsh economic environment…

Rents in America are ridiculously high in many areas, and nearly impossible to find in other areas. This is harder to track than foreclosures for two reasons.

Nobody official is keeping track of evictions, so we have to rely on extrapolated data from regions that do have somebody watching. One example of this is a company called “Eviction Lab” that tracks data from ten states, but only in specific cities and counties in those states. Even with this sparse reporting, their home page shows more than a million evictions over the last year, and more than 78,000 just last month.

The other reason we don’t have official numbers is something called “informal evictions.” Some states have laws against dramatic increases in rent, but not all states do. Both my daughter and I, living in a metro area, have faced a vast increase in rent when our leases were up. For my daughter, the increase was $900 a month and for me it was $600 a month.

Most of the country is just barely scraping by from month to month.

So it is really easy to push most Americans into a state of financial disaster.

Just look at what is happening with subprime auto loans.

The share of those loans that are at least 60 days delinquent has reached the highest level ever recorded…

The share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days behind on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest level on record, according to Fitch Ratings data going back to the early 1990s.

As auto loan delinquencies spike, we are seeing a shocking surge in vehicle repossessions as well…

A near-record number of cars are being repossessed as Americans continue to fall behind on their auto loans amid mounting financial strain.

According to data from the Recovery Database Network (RDN), analyzed by CURepossession, 2025 has seen over 7.5 million repossession assignments—authorizations given to an agency to recover a vehicle on behalf of a lender. Based on historic trends, this figure is expected to reach a record 10.5 million by the end of the year.

Although recovery ratios have fallen in recent years—potentially lowering the number of actual repossessions—it is projected that over three million cars could be repossessed in 2025, a level only reached in 2009 during the Great Recession.

Do you remember the “subprime mortgage meltdown” that we witnessed in 2008 and 2009?

Well, this time around we have a “subprime auto loan meltdown”, and a couple of very large lenders have already gone belly up…

PrimaLend, which serves the “buy-here-pay-here” auto financing market — where dealers sell and directly finance vehicles for customers with poor or limited credit — filed for bankruptcy protection last month.

Tricolor, which sold cars and provided auto loans mostly to low-income Hispanic communities in the Southwestern United States, also filed for bankruptcy in September.

Unfortunately, a lot more Americans will be getting behind on their mortgages and their auto loans during the months ahead because a lot more Americans will be losing their jobs.

With each passing day, we learn of more mass layoffs.

Today, it is being reported that Verizon “is planning to cut 15,000 jobs”…

The optics look awful for Verizon Communications if the Wall Street Journal’s report is accurate: the carrier is preparing for its largest job cuts ever just days before millions of Americans hit the road for Thanksgiving.

WSJ says Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs. If that figure is correct, Bloomberg’s latest data suggests this would be about 15% of its roughly 100,000-person workforce. WSJ notes this would be the largest workforce reduction on record for the carrier.

Does this mean that Verizon’s customer service is about to get even worse?

Of course it would be exceedingly difficult for it to get any worse than it is right now.

By the way, you may have noticed that stock prices are absolutely plummeting.

I think that we will see a lot more market volatility in the days ahead, because global events are going to get quite chaotic.

We are truly living in one of the most pivotal times in all of human history.

Sadly, the vast majority of the population still doesn’t understand what is happening to us, and that is very unfortunate.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 08:20

First Home Depot, Now Target Reports Soft Demand 

At the start of the week, Goldman's top consumer specialist Scott Feiler pointed out this would be a "very important week" for earnings across the consumer sector. Home Depot set the tone on Tuesday by cutting its full-year outlook as big-ticket spending and home-renovation demand continue to fade. Now, the next major earnings report just hit the tape, and it's delivering another clear signal of softening trends. 

Target slashed the top end of its 2025 profit outlook amid softening demand, heavy markdowns, and uneven traffic, which continue to plague its turnaround strategy. 

Adjusted EPS is now forecasted at $7 to $8 for the year, trimming the prior $7 to $9 range. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate stood at $7.29. 

Full-Year Outlook Adjusted

• EPS: $7–$8 (prior: $7–$9; BBG Consensus: $7.29)

Q3 Takeaway: Results reflected consumer softness, weaker comps, declining traffic, margin pressure, and elevated costs. While EPS printed slightly ahead of consensus, the key retail metric of comparable sales fell more sharply than expected.

Q3 Highlights

• Comparable sales: -2.7% (consensus: -2.06%; prior year: +0.3%)

• Digital comps: +2.4% (consensus: +3.43%; prior year: +10.8%)

• Net sales: $25.27B (vs. est. $25.33B)

• Gross margin: 28.2%

• EBIT: $974M, -19% y/y

• EBITDA: $1.75B, -10% y/y (est. $1.89B)

• Operating income: $948M, -19% y/y (est. $1.12B)

• Operating margin: 3.8% (prior: 4.6%; est. 4.34%)

Q3 Customer Metrics

• Transactions: -2.2% y/y (prior: +2.4%)

• Avg. ticket: -0.5% (est. -0.79%; prior: -2%)

• Digital share of sales: 19.3% (prior: 18.5%)

• Stores originated sales: 80.7% (prior: 81.5%)

Q3 Footprint & Costs Total stores

• 1,995 (+0.9%; est. 1,988)

• SG&A: $5.54B, +1.4% (est. $5.48B)

• Store comps: -3.8% (est. -3.33%; prior: -1.9%)

Q3 Bottom Line

• Total stores: 1,995 (+0.9%; est. 1,988)

• SG&A: $5.54B, +1.4% (est. $5.48B)

• Store comps: -3.8% (est. -3.33%; prior: -1.9%)

"We are relentless in our pursuit of returning to growth and not satisfied with our current results," Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke said on a call with analysts. Fiddelke is set to become CEO in February. 

In New York, the stock fell about 2% in premarket trading, deepening its mutli-year bear market. As of Tuesday's close, shares were already down roughly 34.5% year-to-date.

Shares are trading at mid-2019 lows. 

Target's uninspiring earnings report and the continuation of a low- to mid-income squeeze build on a similar story from Home Depot's earnings report on Tuesday. 

Goldman's Feiler laid out the key earnings across the consumer sector this week (read here). Once earnings are finished this week, investors should have better visibility into spending behavior, particularly the mounting pressure on low- and middle-income consumers (read here). That backdrop helps explain the Trump administration's renewed "operation affordability" push ahead of the midterm election cycle.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 08:05

Dutch Retreat: Beijing Wins Control Fight Over Nexperia After Chip Shipments Squeezed

The Dutch government has fully withdrawn its emergency powers over chipmaker Nexperia, returning control to Chinese parent Wingtech and ending the tense standoff that had led Beijing to halt key automotive-chip shipments, Bloomberg reported. If tensions persisted, this would've sparked snarled automotive supply chains worldwide. The reversal marks a clear de-escalation and comes just weeks after the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea helped cool broader trade tensions. 

The powers were initially invoked in September under a Cold War-era law, prompting Beijing to retaliate with export restrictions on chips from Nexperia's Guangdong plant, sparking shipment delays that hit automakers including Honda and Volkswagen.

Some of the first evidence of cooling tensions between the Netherlands and China emerged last Friday when Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans stated that he expects chip supplies to Nexperia's customers in Europe and elsewhere to be resolved "in the coming days." 

Earlier on X, Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans said the Netherlands is suspending its emergency order over Nexperia after constructive talks with Chinese officials and coordination with European and international partners. He noted that China has already taken steps to ensure chip supplies to Europe and beyond. 

In light of recent developments, I consider it the right moment to take a constructive step by suspending my order under the Goods Availability Act regarding Nexperia, in close consultation with our European and international partners.

Full statement ⤵️https://t.co/i0zzqsYahA pic.twitter.com/aR2lajS1CY

— Vincent Karremans (@MinisterEZ) November 19, 2025

Nexperia timeline (via BBG):

Our reporting:

• Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan

• Chipmaker Nexperia's China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

• White House Unveils Details Of U.S.-China Deal, Including Resolution To Nexperia Auto Chip Crisis

• Nexperia Chip Crisis Defused? Dutch Minister "Trusts" China To Resume Chip Exports Next Week

Karremans' statement suggests that the Dutch miscalculated their trade spat with Beijing. This underscored how little leverage Europe actually has - and how quickly China can squeeze the fragile continent's already-failing automotive sector. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 07:45

 

 

“I’m thrilled to announce that my book, “How Not to Invest,” is now also available in German!

Regardless of the language, I highlight the most common pitfalls and mistakes in investing. It’s not the perfect strategy that determines success – it’s simply about making fewer mistakes.

The book is available this week (November 18, 2025) in Germany. You can order it here.

International editions now published include German, Traditional Chinese, and Romanian. Coming up in 2026 are Simplified Chinese, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Romanian, Spanish and Thai.

 

 

The post How Not to Invest: Now in German! appeared first on The Big Picture.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. The overall average loan size across both purchase and refinance applications dipped to its lowest level since August of this year, driven by another drop in the ARM share.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Witkoff, Zelensky, Erdogan To Meet In Turkey In Effort To Revive Peace Talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced he is going to Turkey Wednesday in order to try and revive negotiations with Russia toward reaching a settlement to end the war.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to be there for the talks, which would see Turkey play mediator, as it did during short-lived talks in the opening months of the war. However, the Kremlin has made clear that it won't participate at this point, in the wake of the earlier planned Putin-Trump summit in Hungary having been called off.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "No, there will be no Russian representatives in Turkey tomorrow. For now, these contacts are taking place without Russian participation."

Getty Images

But Peskov did say that President Vladimir Putin remains open to conversations with the US and Turkey on whatever results from the talks, but also emphasized that Moscow is still engaging Washington directly on any potential path forward.

Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is not expected in Ankara either, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be directly hosting.

"Dmitriev held very productive discussion with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on October 24-26 in the United States," a Russian source told Reuters.

It remains that Russia has the leverage and upper-hand on the battlefield along the front lines, and yet Ukraine and its Western backers still refuse to contemplate territorial negotiations, or also a permanent renunciation of ever joining NATO.

According to the latest from the battlefield via TASS:

Russian troops liberated two communities in the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk Regions over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units liberated the settlement of Tsegelnoye in the Kharkov Region… Battlegroup East units advanced deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Nechayevka in the Dnepropetrovsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

At this moment, Zelensky's trip to Turkey appears all about the following: a source told AFP the Ukrainian leader's "main goal is for the Americans to re-engage" in peace efforts.

"We are also working to restore POW exchanges and bring our prisoners of war home," Zelensky has also stated. The US side has also affirmed that it is speaking to Moscow on the issue of arranging prisoner swaps.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 05:45

EU Launches Cloud Antitrust Probes Into Amazon, Microsoft

What would Europe be without a mountain of regulations aimed at curbing free speech and privacy? 

Attendees at Amazon.com Inc. annual cloud computing conference walk past the Amazon Web Services logo in Las Vegas, Nev., on Nov. 30, 2017. Salvador Rodriguez/Reuters File Photo

The European Commission (EC) on Monday launched three separate investigations into Amazon and Microsoft to determine whether their cloud computing businesses should be subject to stricter regulation under the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA). 

Two of the probes will examine whether Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure should be designated as gatekeepers under DMA - even though the companies do not currently meet the law's quantitative thresholds for size, user numbers, or market dominance. 

To meet that bar under DMA, companies providing a core platform service must have over 45 million monthly active users and a market cap of more than 75 billion euros (US$87.87 billion). Compaines which breach the rules may face fines of up to 10% of global revenue. 

And of course, in Europe - even if a company doesn't meet the threshold to be classified as a gatekeeper - EU regulators can just say you are. 

While the DMA is not nakedly about regulating free speech, critics argue that several of its structural mandates could indirectly chill expression online. Requirements for interoperability, alternative ranking systems, and tighter control over “gatekeeper” platforms may unintentionally pressure large services to adopt more uniform, risk-averse moderation policies to avoid regulatory conflict - especially when combined with the EU’s broader Digital Services Act framework.

By forcing platforms to open their systems to third-party services and to redesign core ranking or recommendation functions, the DMA could incentivize over-enforcement, reduced visibility for controversial viewpoints, or a homogenized approach to content governance. In this view, the DMA expands regulatory leverage in ways that, while not explicitly targeting speech, could reshape the online information environment in ways that subtly disfavor dissenting or politically sensitive expression.

Meanwhile, a third probe will look into whether DMA's  existing framework is sufficient to address what the European Commission described as anticompetitive practices in Europe's cloud sector. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, the legislation has come under fire from the Trump administration, which said in February that the DMA unfairly targeted U.S. tech companies.

In announcing the probes, the EC said cloud computing “must be provided in a fair, open and competitive environment” to ensure innovation and Europe’s “strategic autonomy.”

EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said the investigations will examine “whether the DMA’s existing rules need to be updated so Europe can keep pace with fast-evolving practices in the cloud sector.”

She added that cloud computing is critical to AI development and digital competitiveness in Europe.

Monitoring the Gatekeepers

AWS stated that it believed the EC would ultimately conclude that stricter rules were unnecessary.

“We’re confident that when the European Commission considers the facts, it will recognise what we all see—the cloud computing sector is extremely dynamic, with companies enjoying lots of choice, unprecedented innovation opportunity, and low costs, and that designating cloud providers as gatekeepers isn’t worth the risks of stifling invention or raising costs for European companies,” an AWS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

A Microsoft spokesperson, responding to the announcement, said the company was “ready to contribute to the enquiry.”

If the EC ultimately finds that AWS and Azure constitute an “important gateway” between businesses and customers, the services could be added to the list of core platform services for which both companies are already designated as gatekeepers.

Other services by Microsoft and Amazon already on the gatekeepers’ list are LinkedIn, Windows PC OS, Amazon Marketplace, and Amazon Advertising. The Microsoft Azure and AWS designations would trigger new duties, including interoperability requirements and limits on favoring their own products.

The EC said it aims to conclude its investigations within 12 months. If Amazon or Microsoft is designated as a gatekeeper for cloud computing, it will have six months to comply with DMA rules.

The third and broader investigation into whether the DMA adequately governs the cloud market is expected to conclude within 18 months and may result in formal updates to the law.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 04:15

Syria Has Put A Big Western Flag In Its Gas Patch, Less Than Year After Assad Overthrow

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Syria has just put a big Western flag in its gas patch. The state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company has signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips to develop existing gas fields and hunt for new ones, in a bid to drag the country’s power sector out of wartime ruin. Damascus says the deal could lift gas output by 4–5 million cubic meters per day within a year from today’s battered base.

That target is not trivial. Syria’s domestic gas production has collapsed from 8.7 bcm in 2011 to about 3 bcm in 2023. On a rough cut, that’s around 8 mcm/d today; hitting the ministry’s ambition would mean boosting volumes by roughly 50–60% if everything shows up on time and on spec.

The pitch is straightforward: more gas into the grid, fewer blackouts, and less reliance on emergency molecules from Azerbaijan and Qatar flowing via regional deals and the Arab Gas Pipeline.

But the MoU is as much about geopolitics as kilowatt-hours. Washington has already lifted core oil and transport sanctions on Syria and backed a U.S. consortium led by Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG to design a national energy masterplan.

The broader Western strategy, laid out in detail by policy analysts earlier this year, is to pull Syria back into the U.S.–U.K. orbit, lock in long-term energy rights, and dilute Russia’s once-dominant position built around Tartus, Khmeimim, and a web of pre-war upstream deals.

All of this is happening while President Ahmed al-Sharaa is busy proclaiming tightened internal security. Damascus recently trumpeted the foiling of Islamic State plots against the president and used the scare to justify new counterterrorism powers that extend security control over civilian areas.

Western services broadly accept that the IS threat is real but geographically limited, yet the narrative of "stability first, investment second" is proving useful for the new regime.

For ConocoPhillips, the prize is early-mover exposure to a gas market being rebuilt with IMF attention, UN sanctions relief, and heavy U.S. political sponsorship.

The risk is that today’s headline MoU never matures into bankable contracts if security, financing, or politics wobble. In Syria, that’s not a tail risk. It’s the base case you underwrite around.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 03:30

Xi And Trump To Both Be Absent From G-20 Gathering In South Africa

Chinese President Xi Jinping will skip next week’s G-20 summit in Johannesburg, a setback for host South Africa, which is already dealing with a boycott by US President Donald Trump, according to Bloomberg. 

China’s Foreign Ministry said Premier Li Qiang will attend instead, without giving a reason for Xi’s absence, even though he joined the summit last year.

With Xi out, the gathering will lack leaders from the world’s two largest economies, along with Russia’s president, whose travel is limited by an ICC warrant. Trump recently announced that no US officials would attend after claiming—falsely—that South Africa is committing genocide against White Afrikaners.

Bloomberg writes that Xi has sharply reduced overseas travel since the pandemic, favoring what Beijing calls “home-court diplomacy,” hosting figures such as Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Kim Jong Un. He previously visited South Africa for the 2023 BRICS summit and hosted African leaders in Beijing.

Several other G-20 leaders, including Argentina’s Javier Milei and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, also aren’t going, though European leaders, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected.

Analysts say Xi’s absence doesn’t signal a shift in China’s priorities; Scott Kennedy noted, “I don’t see any drop off in their view that those global governance institutions are important avenues for China to communicate its message.” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said the summit “carries significant historical importance” as the first G-20 gathering on the African continent.

Li has often represented Xi at major events, including the 2023 G-20 in India and this year’s BRICS meeting in Brazil. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa downplayed the impact of Trump’s absence, saying, “My experience in politics is that boycotts never really work — they have a very contradictory effect,” and adding, “The G-20 will go on … Their absence is their loss.”

Privately, South African officials say the lack of US participation may actually make it easier to reach a joint declaration before handing the G-20 presidency to Washington in December.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 02:45

Leftist Berlin Mayoral Candidate Calls For Voting-Rights For All Migrants

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The Left Party’s (Die Linke) newly-chosen lead candidate for next year’s state election has called to extend voting rights to all migrants living in the capital, including those who do not hold German citizenship.

Elif Eralp’s remarks were delivered during a party strategy meeting on Saturday, where 163 delegates met ahead of the September 2026 Berlin House of Representatives election.

The 44-year-old told delegates, “Let’s make history,” after being elected as the party’s top candidate. Every Berliner aged 16 and older is eligible to vote in the 2026 election under the current legal framework, but German constitutional law restricts voting in federal and state elections to citizens. Her proposal would therefore require fundamental legal change.

The Left Party had already promoted Eralp as its preferred figurehead in October, describing her as “courageous, determined, and an advocate for all those who keep things running here.” One of her main policies has been expanding rights for migrants. She said that people with a migration background constitute almost half of Berlin’s population and are “not just part of the cityscape.” Referring to both economic migrants and asylum seekers, she said these groups “contribute to shaping this city and this country every day.”

Eralp argued that this contribution should entitle non-citizens to a right to vote. She stated:

“Of course, they should also have the right to vote, regardless of whether they hold a German passport,” calling this a “democratic given.”

She also criticised the CDU, accusing the party of pandering to the AfD and creating divisions in the capital.

An Insa poll published at the end of October placed the Left Party at 17 percent in Berlin, behind the CDU, and ahead of the SPD and the Greens, which currently occupy third and fifth place respectively. On those numbers, the Left Party could form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens after the 2026 election. As the largest party of the three, Eralp could feasibly become the next Berlin mayor.

Eralp has served as deputy chair of the Berlin Left Party since May 2025. She has been a member of the Berlin House of Representatives since 2021, where she acts as deputy parliamentary group chair and spokesperson for migration and anti-discrimination.

She also linked her campaign to developments abroad, referring to the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York.

“Millions of people cast their votes for a good life for all and for a city that everyone can afford,” she said.

“If a leftist can win in New York, then they can just as easily win in Berlin.”

She said Mamdani represents a policy that rejects the idea that a city should work only for wealthy residents, adding:

“Whether in New York or Berlin, in Marzahn or Manhattan – we all want a good life.”

Berliners are scheduled to vote on Sept. 20, 2026.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 02:00

Was COVID Always A CIA Plot?

Via The Brownstone Institute,

According to newly released emails, the United States Intelligence Community, led by the CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, held regular meetings with Dr. Ralph Baric, one of America’s leading coronavirus experts, since at least 2015. 

Senator Rand Paul’s office has worked for years to obtain the documents. 

Baric has been accused of engineering the Covid-19 virus in his lab at the University of North Carolina, but he has never had to testify about his role in the pandemic despite his well-documented collaboration with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. 

The newly released emails reveal that the CIA hoped to discuss “Coronavirus evolution and possible natural human adaptation with Baric” and that Baric held quarterly meetings with members of the Intelligence Community. 

These emails are just the latest additions to the suspicious amalgamation of facts implicating the US Intelligence Community’s role in the origins of the pandemic, as discussed in The Covid Response at Five Years.

A very brief overview of the timeline suggests that the CIA and the Intelligence Community are implicated in the creation of the virus, a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and censorship to evade any public scrutiny for their role in the pandemic. 

• 2015: The Intelligence Community held quarterly meetings with Dr. Ralph Baric and discussed “possible human adaptation” to coronavirus evolution. 

• 2019-2020: The CIA had a spy working at the Wuhan Institute of Virology doing “both offensive and defensive work” with pathogens, according to Seymour Hersh. That asset reports in early 2020 that there was a laboratory accident that resulted in the infection of a researcher. 

• March 18, 2020: The Department of Homeland Security replaced Health and Human Services as the lead Federal Agency responding to Covid, as explained in depth in Debbie Lerman’s The Deep State Goes Viral. 

• Spring 2020: The CIA offered bribes to scientists to bury their findings refuting the “proximal origin” theory advanced by Dr. Anthony Fauci, according to a whistleblower. The House Oversight Committee explains: “According to the whistleblower, at the end of its review, six of the seven members of the Team believed the intelligence and science were sufficient to make a low confidence assessment that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China.” Then, however, the “six members were given a significant monetary incentive to change their position.”

• 2020: Dr. Fauci began holding secret meetings at CIA headquarters “without a record of entry” in order to “influence its Covid-19 origins investigation,” according to a whistleblower. “He knew what was going on…He was covering his ass and he was trying to do it with the Intel community,” the whistleblower told Congress.”

• 2021: Scientists in the Department of Defense compiled significant evidence suggesting Covid emerged from a lab leak, but President Biden’s Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, banned them from presenting their evidence or participating in a discussion on the origins of the virus.

• 2021: CISA, an agency within the Department of Homeland Security, implemented a program known as “switchboarding,” where officials dictated to Big Tech platforms what content is permissible or prohibited speech. 

• 2022: The Department of Homeland Security announced it will establish a “Disinformation Governance Board.” The Ministry of Truth is only discontinued when the absurdity of its chief censor, Nina Jankowicz, receives sufficient blowback from the public.

What exactly was the play here?

A populist impulse has been alive in the American electorate since the end of the Cold War. A growing popular demand on the left and right has been for a government that serves the people and not some globalist, bureaucratized, and militarized scheme that only benefits the ruling class. 

In 2015, Donald Trump, a consummate outsider to the ruling elites, was ascending in political stature in ways that no one expected. He was saying outrageous things on stage – such as that the Iraq war was a disaster – and people loved it. 

The establishment’s choice, Jeb Bush, was wiped out early in the primaries. This was not about Trump personally, however; it was about the traditional demand in these circles to control the controllers.

Since the assassination of JFK, this has always been the way, always justified in the public interest. Trump was not their choice. 

The real interest has been the consolidation and expansion of power of a rogue Intelligence Community, headed by the CIA.

Tapping Baric’s expertise was part of a deliberate strategy to increase that dominance through bioweapons. 

It seems perhaps crazy to imagine that there was a playbook for maintaining control by the old guard and that the pandemic option was among them. But perhaps it was. After all, Anthony Fauci frequently warned of a coming pandemic, and intelligence worked with universities and corporations for years and on multiple occasions to game out pandemic exercises (Event 201 and Crimson Contagion). 

What we have here are new breadcrumbs pointing to a genuine coup attempt, one that grew as each stage in the deployment failed, culminating in relentless media campaigns, lawfare, and even assassination attempts. The newest evidence further reinforces the existence of a ruling class willing to engage in sadistic policies that compared with the worst of the last years of the Roman Empire. 

Of course, this was not just about politics in the US. Populist movements had come alive the world over, from Europe to the UK to Brazil. Fully 194 countries were locked down over several weeks, with the claim that the problem would be fixed with universal human separation followed by injection of a compliant population. The scenario being built here through these releases is nothing short of terrifying. 

Where are the investigations, hearings, commissions, and courts? At the very least, and in any case, Baric and members of the Intelligence Community must testify under oath about their role in gain-of-function research, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the cover-up that began in 2020. 

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 23:25

Chinese Firm Bought Insurer For CIA Agents As Part Of Trillion Dollar Spending Spree

For years, Washington assumed that China’s outbound investment flowed mainly into developing economies hungry for infrastructure money. But as scrutiny tightens across the West, it’s becoming clear that Beijing’s financial reach extended far deeper into wealthy nations - and far earlier - than most policymakers realized.

One early warning came in 2016, when Jeff Stein, a veteran journalist covering U.S. intelligence agencies, received an unusual tip: Wright USA, a small insurer that specialized in providing liability coverage for FBI and CIA personnel, had quietly been acquired the year before by Fosun Group, a Chinese conglomerate with reported ties to Beijing’s leadership. “Someone with direct knowledge called me up and said, ‘Do you know that the insurance company that insures intelligence personnel is owned by the Chinese?’” Stein recalls. “I was astonished.”

The concern was immediate and obvious. Wright USA held personal information on some of the most sensitive employees in the federal government. The question in Washington became not what the Chinese buyer intended, but who might ultimately gain access to the data. Newly released records reviewed by the BBC indicate that Chinese state banks helped finance the acquisition, routing a $1.2 billion loan through the Cayman Islands to enable Fosun’s purchase.

Though the deal violated no U.S. laws, it triggered alarm. Stein’s story in Newsweek soon prompted a rare inquiry by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the Treasury-led interagency panel responsible for policing foreign ownership risks. Within months, Wright USA was sold back to American owners. Neither Fosun nor Starr Wright USA, its new parent, responded to requests for comment.

High-level intelligence officials say the episode was among the cases that pushed the first Trump administration in 2018 to significantly tighten U.S. investment screening - part of a broader shift as the U.S. began rethinking a two-decade-old presumption that Chinese capital posed few national-security risks.

New research now suggests the Wright USA case was not an anomaly, but one instance in a vast global pattern. AidData, a research lab at William & Mary, has completed what it calls the first comprehensive tally of China’s state-backed investments abroad. Its findings, shared in advance with the BBC, show that Beijing has spent $2.1 trillion overseas since 2000 - roughly half in developing countries and half in advanced economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia.

“For many years, we assumed China’s money flows were going to developing countries,” said Brad Parks, AidData’s executive director. “It came as a great surprise when we realized hundreds of billions were flowing into wealthy markets, happening right underneath our noses.”

China’s ability to project financial power abroad is tied to the enormous scale of its domestic banking system - now larger than those of the U.S., Europe, and Japan combined. Beijing exercises direct control over interest rates and credit allocation, giving it tools few governments possess. “This is only possible with very strict capital controls, which no other country could sustain,” said Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.

Many of the investments mapped by AidData appear commercial in nature. But others align with China’s long-running industrial strategy, including the now-muted - but still operative - “Made in China 2025” program, which aims to dominate sectors such as robotics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. 

Western governments have since moved aggressively to strengthen screening mechanisms over inbound capital. In the U.K., the U.S., and the Netherlands, regulators have derailed or unwound deals over fears that Chinese buyers could access strategically sensitive technologies. The Dutch government recently intervened in the operations of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor firm, citing concerns that chip technologies could be transferred to its parent company. The move effectively split Nexperia’s Dutch operations from its China-based manufacturing arm - an extraordinary step in a country long known for economic openness.

But policymakers also warn against overcorrection. “There’s a danger of making it seem as if China is this monolith,” said Xiaoxue Martin, a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague. “Most companies, especially private ones, just want to make money. They don’t want the negative reception they’re getting in Europe.”

Beijing rejects claims that its overseas investments are tools of statecraft. “Chinese companies… contribute actively to local economic growth, social development and job creation,” the Chinese embassy in London told the BBC, adding that they strictly follow local laws.

Still, the scale of the financing behind many transactions raises questions about where commercial intent ends and strategic interest begins. What Western officials now see, Parks argues, is a coordinated push. “At first, they thought these were individual initiatives from Chinese companies,” he said. “What they’ve learned is that Beijing’s party-state is behind the scenes writing the checks.”

(h/t Capital.news)

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 23:00

The Road To De-Civilization: Inflation & The Moral Erosion Of Society

Authored by Michael Matulef via The Mises Institute,

Every major economic illusion begins with the corruption of a word. Inflation once meant popularly what it still means in truth—the artificial expansion of money and credit. But, over time, it has been redefined to describe its consequence rather than its cause.

This deliberate inversion of language serves a political purpose: it shifts blame from those who create money to those who merely spend it, transforming an act of monetary fraud into a mere statistical “phenomenon.”

The result is profound.

By redefining inflation, governments have obscured its nature, economists have lost its meaning, and citizens have come to accept their gradual impoverishment as an unavoidable fact of life.

The Austrian tradition—more than any other—seeks to restore that lost clarity: to call things by their proper names, and to remind us that inflation is not a symptom of capitalism’s failure, but of government’s assault on money itself.

The Nature of Inflation

Inflation, as understood by the Austrian School, is not a general rise in prices but an artificial expansion of the money supply. Everything else flows from that root cause. Prices do not rise uniformly, nor do they rise spontaneously. There are supply and demand reasons why prices can rise. However, prices largely rise at present because additional monetary units are injected into the economy, altering the structure of production and distorting economic calculation from the ground up.

As Ludwig von Mises insisted in Economic Freedom and Interventionism,

There is nowadays a very reprehensible, even dangerous, semantic confusion that makes it extremely difficult for the non-expert to grasp the true state of affairs. Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country [the United States], means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term “inflation” to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. It follows that nobody cares about inflation in the traditional sense of the term. As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil.

Only later, as political expediency demanded it, was the definition corrupted to mean “a general rise in prices.” That semantic sleight of hand allowed governments to claim innocence while committing the very act they had redefined away.

Murray Rothbard brought Mises’s insight to its logical conclusion in The Case Against the Fed:

The culprit solely responsible for inflation, the Federal Reserve, is continually engaged in raising a hue-and-cry about “inflation,” for which virtually everyone else in society seems to be responsible. What we are seeing is the old ploy by the robber who starts shouting “Stop, thief!” and runs down the street pointing ahead at others. We begin to see why it has always been important for the Fed, and for other Central Banks, to invest themselves with an aura of solemnity and mystery. For, if the public knew what was going on, if it was able to rip open the curtain covering the inscrutable Wizard of Oz, it would soon discover that the Fed, far from being the indispensable solution to the problem of inflation, is itself the heart and cause of the problem.

Every expansion, Rothbard argued, constitutes a form of legalized counterfeiting that “robs all holders of money,” redistributing wealth from savers and producers to those nearest the new money’s points of entry. Prices adjust unevenly because new money does not enter all pockets at once. It flows—first to borrowers, banks, and state contractors—before dispersing through the broader economy. This “Cantillon effect” is central to the Austrian understanding: new money changes prices, which beget other chances, from injection points; inflation benefits those who receive new money first and penalizes those who receive it last.

As Jörg Guido Hülsmann demonstrates in How Inflation Destroys Civilization, inflation springs “from a violation of the fundamental rules of society,” transforming what should be honest economic exchange into systematic deception. Inflation is not merely a monetary distortion but a moral hazard that corrupts the language of economic communication itself. When fiat inflation “turns moral hazard and irresponsibility into an institution,” it destroys the pricing system’s ability to convey truth. In such an environment, where “everything is what it is called, then it is difficult to explain the difference between truth and lie,” prices cease to function as reliable signals coordinating economic decisions. Inflation “tempts people to lie about their products, and perennial inflation encourages the habit of routine lies,” spreading this corruption “like a cancer over the rest of the economy.” The result is a society where the very medium of economic coordination has been falsified at its source, leaving entrepreneurs to navigate by systematically-distorted signals that make sustainable economic calculation impossible.

But the damage extends far beyond falsified price signals into the moral fabric of civilization itself. Inflation “constantly reduces the purchasing power of money,” and “the consequence is despair and the eradication of moral and social standards.” Through debt-based policies, “Western governments have pushed their citizens into a state of financial dependency unknown to any previous generation.” This dependency corrodes character:

Towering debts are incompatible with financial self-reliance and thus they tend to weaken self-reliance also in all other spheres. The debt-ridden individual eventually adopts the habit of turning to others for help, rather than maturing into an economic and moral anchor of his family, and of his wider community. Wishful thinking and submissiveness replace soberness and independent judgment.

Worse still, “Inflation makes society materialistic. More and more people strive for money income at the expense of personal happiness.” What emerges is a culture where “fiat inflation leaves a characteristic cultural and spiritual stain on human society”—a stain that transforms independent citizens into dependent subjects, erodes the standards that sustain civilization, and ultimately reveals inflation as “a powerhouse of social, economic, cultural, and spiritual destruction.”

Inflation as Lived Experience

Inflation’s true theater is not the spreadsheet but the home. The harm is intimate—felt not in economic aggregates but in the quiet recalibrations of daily life. Inflation acts as the cruelest and most imprudent tax, for it strikes invisibly, eroding the purchasing power of the very people least equipped to hedge against it. It destroys the link between effort and reward, between prudence and security.

Inflation punishes thrift and rewards debt. Those who save in money lose; those who borrow in money gain, at least temporarily. The saver’s virtue becomes folly, and the speculator’s recklessness becomes advantageous. Over time, entire societies shift their time preferences—impatience replaces diligence, consumption replaces production and saving. Once the money signal is corrupted, society loses its sense of future orientation. Inflation de-civilizes by teaching people to live for the present. This is civilizational decay.

In daily life, this manifests gradually. The middle-class family that once dined out weekly now eats at home. The young worker saving for a house discovers the dream receding each year. The retiree, promised security through “stable” investments, realizes that the stability was priced in nominal, not real, terms. Everyone adjusts—economically, psychologically, morally. The harm is slow, individualized, and cumulative.

The Austrian economist sees inflation not as a statistic but as a story of distortion—a story of moral inversion, misallocation, and progressive social demoralization. The calamity is not merely higher prices but confused values and distorted choices. Inflation is, in essence, a lie against time and value, and, like all lies, it eventually collapses under its own contradictions.

Conclusion: Sound Money as Civilization’s Foundation

The path forward is not mysterious; it is a choice. Societies that wish to recover from inflation’s moral and economic wreckage must begin where the corruption began: with money itself. The Austrian remedy demands the restoration of honest money—money that cannot be inflated at will, that holds its value across time, and that reconnects effort with reward.

To call for sound money is to demand the reestablishment of truth as the foundation of economic life. Inflation is first and foremost a lie—a lie embedded in the very medium we use to communicate value. When that medium is corrupted, the moral architecture of society collapses with it. Restoring sound money means restoring the conditions under which civilization can flourish: where savings accumulate rather than decay, where long-term planning replaces short-term desperation, and where currency becomes an ally of virtue rather than an engine of vice.

The inflation that impoverishes and demoralizes continues, not by economic necessity, but by political will and public acquiescence. History offers no comfort to those who ignore economic law indefinitely. To choose sound money is to choose civilization over decay. The Austrian School offers no utopian promises, only stark clarity: sound money is the precondition for a free and civilized society, and its absence is the precondition for barbarism.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 22:35

How A Missed Train In 1876 Led To The Adoption Of Standard Time

Authored by Gerry Bowler via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In July 1876, Sandford Fleming, a Scottish Canadian engineer, was standing on an Irish railway platform fuming—he had misread his timetable, confusing a.m. and p.m., and as a result had missed his train. Spurred by this inconvenience, Fleming began thinking how a 24-hour clock would have made this sort of mistake impossible. But his highly inventive mind did not stop there: he had visions of worldwide time zones, 24 of them around the globe, each comprising 15 degrees of longitude and each an hour different.

The Hon. Donald Smith drives home the last spike for the Canadian Pacific Railway in Eagle Pass, B.C., on Nov. 7, 1885. The tall man standing behind him with the top hat is Sir Sandford Fleming, the father of standard time. The Canadian Press/National Archives of Canada

The notion of standardized time would be an extremely valuable one in an age of unprecedented railway expansion and increased travel. It was customary for each locality to keep to a different time, making timetables an unreliable nightmare and accidents much more likely to happen. In October 1841 near Westfield, Massachusetts, two trains operating on the same track, one east-bound, the other west-bound, collided because of inaccurate timekeeping. Only two people died in that crash, but 20 passengers and crew died near Pawtucket, Rhode Island, in 1853 because of a similar miscommunication, with a new train conductor using a milkman’s borrowed watch upon which to base his train’s schedule.

Fleming, also an inventor and scientist, was a tireless advocate of scientific cooperation, founding the Royal Society of Canada and the Canadian Institute. He promoted his concept through publications, presentations to scientific societies, and extensive lobbying with railroad executives with whom he had excellent connections due to his extensive experience with the Intercontinental Railway and the Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR).

He enlisted scientific allies across North America and Europe and spearheaded transatlantic cooperation to make his proposal a reality.​ In this work he was assisted by astronomer and meteorologist Cleveland Abbe, the head of the United States Weather Bureau, who had urged standardization of clocks in other to ensure consistency from his far-flung reporting stations.

The climax of their campaign arrived on Nov. 18, 1883—known as “The Day of Two Noons.” At noon on this date, North American railroads officially adopted the system of standard time zones. Railroad clocks across the continent switched from local time to one of the four primary zones: Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific. This historic moment, coordinated by the General Time Convention (later renamed the American Railway Association) and railroad managers, represented a dramatic shift for millions. In cities such as New York, residents watched as their clocks marked noon twice: once by the sun, and once by the new standard. The transition was so significant that some regarded it as an affront to tradition and a dangerous break with nature.

This new system specifically followed Fleming’s recommendations and gave structure to North American industry and commerce. The immediate effect was a drastic reduction in railway accidents and scheduling errors, paving the way for faster, safer travel and more efficient movement of goods and people.​

Fleming’s advocacy extended beyond North America. He participated in high-profile international conferences, culminating in the 1884 International Meridian Conference in Washington, D.C. Here, his proposals played a pivotal role in persuading delegates from over 20 countries to adopt the Greenwich Meridian as the prime meridian, the basis for a new global standard of timekeeping. Countries gradually established legal frameworks to adopt standardized time zone usage for civil and commercial purposes.​

Today, Canada has six times zones from Newfoundland (always a tricky 30 minutes different) to the Atlantic, Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific zones. The continental United States has five, plus four more for their island possessions in the Pacific and Caribbean. Russia has an amazing 11 time zones, while autocratic China has only a single one.

A sign on the TransCanada Highway west of Thunder Bay, Ont., indicating a change in time zone. The plaque on the left commemorates Sir Sandford Fleming for his role in the adoption of a standard time. The Canadian Press/Colin Perkel

Fleming’s vision permanently altered how societies measure, understand, and organize time. The widespread adaptation of his time zone model meant that, for the first time, vast regions could be coordinated with precision, whether for train schedules, telegraph messages, or cross-continental business. This system remains essentially unchanged in the 21st century, a testament to the enduring value of Fleming’s intellectual achievement and his ability to foster cooperation.​

Fleming was an astonishingly productive man, one that Canadians—who are presently suffering a dearth of heroes (particularly from the 19th century)—ought to know more about. He had keen ideas about electoral reform, favouring a system of proportional representation, and he advocated for transoceanic undersea cables connecting North America, Europe, and Australia. In 1851, he designed Canada’s first postage stamp.

Fleming’s work on railways in the Maritime provinces and in the construction of the CPR was of paramount importance in securing Canadian unity. For those of you familiar with the photograph of the pounding of the CPR’s “last spike,” he is the tall bearded gentleman in a top hat standing behind CPR director Donald Smith, who is wielding the hammer. For his many services to his country, Fleming was knighted in 1897.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 21:45

Beijing Jumps Back Into US Soybean Market, Snaps Up 20 Cargo Loads After Abrupt Pause 

After the Trump-Xi trade agreement cooled the tit-for-tat tariff war and opened the door for a more stable phase of negotiations, we've been tracking a series of agricultural twists and turns that can only be viewed as a rollercoaster ride: 

• 'Signatures As Soon As Next Week': U.S.-China Deal Close, Bessent Unveils Major Victory For American Farmers

• China Boosts U.S. Soybean Purchases Following Trump-Xi Trade Talks

Then this. 

• China's Purchases Of U.S. Soybeans Abruptly Stops

Now we've come full circle after Bloomberg reported Tuesday that China has returned to the U.S. soybean market, purchasing nearly a million tons, or about 20 cargo ships worth, for December and January delivery. 

Traders told BBG that state-owned giant Cofco made the purchases from both Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast ports. As we've previously reported, these purchases end the one-week pause in buying and signal Beijing's continued commitment after last month's trade truce. 

That commitment: the Trump administration says Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end and 25 million tons annually for the following three years. 

Trump told reporters on Friday aboard Air Force One that China has already begun the buying process and expects "a lot of soybean purchases," potentially even before spring.

On Monday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Fox Business, "We've already got about 330,000 TONS out... we're going to get that deal signed - then, we're off to the races." 

Chicago soybean futures were up more than 3% on Monday before easing in the overnight session. 

The renewed demand may lift bean prices much higher. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 21:20