Strong US Jobs Report Reignites Rate Hike Fears
Sean Conlon, Lee Ying Shan, Ananya Chetia and Chloe Taylor of CNBC report the Dow tumbles more than 260 points after strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears:The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Friday as August’s hotter-than-expected payrolls reading increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its next meeting.
The 30-stock Dow was down 271.86 points, or 0.51%, closing at 53,414.25. The S&P 500 slid 0.38% to end at 7,718.60, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.29% to 26,506.99.
Nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 last month, much more than the 53,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, as expected. On top of last month’s gain, figures for both June and July saw upward revisions.
Treasury yields rose following the report, with the 2-year yield hitting its highest level since January 2025. Expectations that the Fed could raise rates in a couple weeks increased, as fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 58% chance of a hike, per the CME FedWatch tool. Odds were at 49.4% a day ago.
“A monster jobs report for August reminds us that this labor statistic has become highly volatile while nudging up the probability of a September hike slightly,” said Bradford Smith, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
Now, the debate surrounding the Fed “will sit handily on the incoming inflation data,” he added. “After a hawkish appearance from Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole last week, there is a clear bias at the Fed to take action if the incoming data does not show further progress on disinflation.”
The three major averages rose on Thursday, catching a tailwind as Treasury yields pulled back after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be “inclined to support” keeping rates at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the central bank’s Sept. 15-16 meeting.
However, the Dow dropped 0.3% during the week. The S&P 500 added 0.1% week to date, while the Nasdaq notched a 0.4% gain.
Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant of Reuters also report Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets:
NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street dipped on Friday as a robust jobs report raised the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase its key interest rate at this month's monetary policy meeting.
All three major U.S. indexes closed lower amid a broad selloff ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
For the week, the indexes were essentially unchanged.
The Labor Department's August employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month, nearly three times the 56,000 consensus, while the department revised June and July payrolls upward by a total of 55,000 jobs. Labor market participation increased while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.1%.
While a stronger-than-expected jobs report would generally be good economic news, markets are interpreting it as a sign the data-dependent Fed will implement a rate hike at the conclusion of this month's policy meeting to curb war-related energy price pressures from morphing into broader, more systemic inflation.
"The labor market had a nice snapback last month, and it's hard not to think an improving labor market is not a positive development for the economy," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, Nebraska. "On the flip side, the odds of a Fed hike increased a little bit as the economy continues to run a little on the hot side."
"We'll get a lot more clarity on inflation next week at the consumer and producer levels," Detrick added, referring to the Labor Department's consumer and producer price indexes.
Financial markets are pricing in a 58.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed's September meeting, up from 49.4% on Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272.51 points, or 0.51%, to 53,413.60, the S&P 500 lost 29.30 points, or 0.38%, to 7,718.41 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 77.07 points, or 0.29%, to 26,506.99.
Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks were down the most, while industrials and tech showed modest gains.
Semiconductors (SOX) were clear outperformers, gaining 3.4%, but remain down 17.8% this quarter. Software and services having gained 24% over the same period, were clear laggards on the day, dropping 2.1%.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) tumbled 17.4% after the activewear brand cut its full-year profit and revenue forecasts.
Adobe (ADBE) dropped 6.7% following its announcement that longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen will be succeeded by insider Anil Chakravarthy.
U.S. credit reporting agencies lost ground after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use the credit scoring system VantageScore.
Fair Isaac (FICO) lost 16.7%, TransUnion (TRU) dropped 5.9%, while Equifax (EFX) slid 6.4%.
U.S. markets will close on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.04-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 151 new highs and 167 new lows on the NYSE.
On the Nasdaq, 2,478 stocks rose and 2,256 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.1-to-1 ratio.
The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 99 new lows.
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.14 billion shares, compared with the 14.89 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
This morning all eyes were on the solid US August jobs report, fuelling speculation the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on September 15-16.
While the jobs report was much better than expected and previous months revised up, I still maintain the Fed will likely not raise rates this month.
Of course, a hot inflation report next week might seal the deal for a rate hike but as I stated last week, this is much ado about nothing.
Importantly, even if the Fed raises by 25 basis points, it's a one-and-done deal, so this will not have a major impact on markets.
In other news today, President Trump demanded that the Federal Reserve slash interest rates or else he will cut off trade with countries with which the U.S. maintains trade deficits. He doubled down in the Oval Office later Friday, saying, “we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world.”
These demands and threats are baseless and only make the Fed's job more difficult. Moreover, higher tariffs will fuel more inflation, which will put upward pressure on yields, so he should be careful making these statements.
On another interesting note, Norway’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund wants to cut its holdings of government bonds, chiefly affecting US Treasurys, as it seeks greater returns elsewhere:
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.
The heads of Norges Bank Investment Management wrote in a letter to the country’s Finance Ministry, made public Friday, that it recommended reducing the government subindex of its bond holdings from 70% to 50% — a level it said would provide sufficient liquidity during market turbulence while allowing it to seek greater returns elsewhere.
The proposed reallocation would gradually cut NBIM’s Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9%, reduce its euro area holdings from 16.8% to 14.1%, and increase its share of Japanese government bonds to 7.4% from 4.6%.
NBIM also wants to begin weighting its government bond holdings by market value instead of gross domestic product because of the high debt loads of almost all developed economies.
Makes perfect sense to me, and this has nothing to do with politics.
Alright, some stock market news to end this comment.
First, this week's top-performing US large-cap stocks (full list here; I circled the ones that caught my attention):

Next, the worst-performing US large-cap stocks this week (full list here; I circled the ones that caught my attention):

There were other stocks that caught my attention this week, like Snowflake which surged 22% on Thursday after cloud-based software company posted a blowout second quarter with revenue surging 35% to $1.55 billion:

This stock hit a 52-week low of $118 when the Saascopalypse hysteria hit markets back in March- April, and only Brad Gerstner was pounding the table to buy (software stocks are up nearly 40% since the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ bottom).
That was a great buying opportunity.
What else? Shares of Ciena continue to struggle after a huge run-up into June. The stock tumbled on Thursday despite beating on earnings this morning:

But generally speaking, momentum stocks (MTUM) caught a bid this week led by semis (SMH):


Still, looking at those charts, it's unclear to me that momentum is turning the corner here in any convincing way. I would need to see what lies ahead in the coming weeks.
Over in Biotech Land, shares of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) are down 40% this week after the company announced its rare-disease drug candidate failed to meet its main goal in a late-stage trial:

Still, some analysts believe the drugmaker has plenty of life left in its pipeline and I do note one of the top biotech funds, RTW Investments, is the second-biggest holder of shares after BlackRock.
Lastly, the stock of the week, a micro-cap called bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. (BIAF):
The stock is up 213% this week, 2,676% over the past month, was literally trading at 41 cents on August 17th. It looks like it's tumbling back down to earth in after-hours trading (another pump-and-dump scam).
Alright, enjoy your long Labour Day weekend, I'll be back next week.
Below, Investment Committee debates the return of the Mag 7 and share their top strategies with those names.
Also, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School Professor of finance, joins 'Closing Bell' to talk what the August jobs report means for the FOMC's next rate hike decision.
Lastly, Rick Bensignor, Bensignor Investment Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the technical trade around markets, bond yields, and commodities.







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