IMCO's World View 2026
Derek Decloet and Layan Odeh of Bloomberg report the US dollar has lost its shine and that's a problem for pension funds:Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in to stop the slide in his country’s currency, telling CNBC earlier today: “The US has always had a strong dollar policy.” The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first time in a week.
An exception to the greenback’s rally was the loonie, which stayed strong after the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve both opted to hold rates steady. The Canadian dollar is now at its highest level against the buck since October 2024, which is nice for cross-border shoppers and vacationers — though there are fewer of them these days.
A stronger currency is a complicating factor in the Canadian economy. Some export-driven manufacturers prefer a softer loonie. Among other things, it can help cushion the blow of tariffs. Canadian pension funds, stuffed to the rafters with US-dollar assets, also have some decisions to make on how to hedge their currency and political risks.
As it happens, Investment Management Corp. of Ontario, a big manager of government pensions and other cash, published its annual world outlook report today. Currency risks are a feature of the new environment of trade wars and geopolitical threats, IMCO said, and investors might do well to explore the Swiss franc and Japanese yen (and gold, of course) as places to diversify.
“Investors may need to contemplate what a rebalanced global economy — where the US plays a different role — means for their portfolios,” IMCO Chief Strategist Nick Chamie said. “This includes rebalancing exposures away from the US to take advantage of increasing opportunities elsewhere.”
On Wednesday, IMCO released its World View 2026:
Positioning portfolios for resilience as globalization fractures and volatility risesTORONTO (January 28, 2026) – The Investment Management Corporation of Ontario ("IMCO") today releases the IMCO World View 2026, its annual flagship research publication that helps guide long-term investment strategy across its multi-billion-dollar portfolio.
This year's report underscores the speed at which deglobalization is happening, driven by a rise in protectionist policies and tariffs, led primarily by the U.S., while governments around the world seek to reassert economic control. IMCO's Investment Research and Economics team expects the pace of this transition to amplify market volatility and materially influence long-term portfolio construction.
The report distills complex economic, market, and policy developments into six core themes and six corresponding investment implications, offering a framework to navigate a more polarized and unpredictable global economy.
"Our World View framework cuts through global economic and market complexity as a cornerstone of IMCO's research-driven investment process," said Nick Chamie, Senior Managing Director, Head of Total Portfolio and Capital Markets and Chief Strategist of IMCO.
Highlights from the IMCO World View 2026:
Accelerating trends:
- Deglobalization: President Donald Trump's second term has intensified Washington’s interventionist and competitive approach, quickening the global shift away from open, integrated markets as countries recalibrate their economic models.
- Policy inflection: U.S. policymakers are increasingly turning to policy intervention to reshape global trade and financial flows, using tools ranging from fiscal stimulus and tariffs to currency measures, subsidies, and other novel approaches.
Steady trends:
- Addressing inequality: Governments have shifted some attention away from this social concern, focusing instead on boosting economic growth through industrial and fiscal stimulus, though inequality remains persistent and politically consequential.
- Disruptive technologies: Rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and advances in electric vehicle batteries highlight their growing impact across various industries.
- Evolving market structures: While growth moderates in private markets, the investable universe is shifting, expanding retail investor access to previously exclusive private markets.
Decelerating trends:
- Climate change and sustainability: Rising energy demand and security concerns have temporarily shifted focus away from environmental priorities, though the need for clean energy adaptation amid the energy transition remains.
Key implications for investors:
- End of low for long: Geopolitical uncertainty and economic reshoring may fuel inflation and shape monetary policy, making broader currency diversification, shorter duration fixed-income and safe-haven assets like commodities more attractive.
- Heightened volatility and dispersion: Concentrated markets and high valuations, combined with U.S. efforts to disrupt the status quo are setting the stage for market swings. A “macro-aware” asset allocation framework alongside risk-hedging strategies can help strengthen portfolio resilience.
- Capital investment boom: Rising capital spending, particularly in energy, defence, and AI infrastructure, is creating opportunities to invest in critical infrastructure and companies tied to nation-building projects.
- Expanding role of private investments: Private markets support long-term value creation and help reduce short-term portfolio volatility, while giving institutional investors access to a broader set of investment opportunities.
- Managing unintended exposures: Growing popularity of passive investing is intensifying market concentrations, heightening the need for diversified strategies.
- Innovation and flexibility: A weakening of traditional market dynamics calls for greater adaptability and resiliency in portfolio construction.
A little more context:
The World View is our flagship annual publication, used to inform IMCO’s long-term investment strategy and positioning across a multi-billion-dollar portfolio.
The report distills complex global economic, market, and policy developments into six core themes and six corresponding investment implications, providing a clear framework for navigating the global investment landscape. Developed by IMCO's in-house economics team, with input from IMCO’s investment teams, it delivers practical, actionable insights.
In the IMCO World View 2026, we assess whether recent developments are consistent with each theme or implication's momentum accelerating, decelerating or remaining stable. We also consider whether the developments underlying a change in momentum warrant a reconsideration of the trend's validity. This evaluation is a cumulative process that assigns more weight to momentum assessments that persist for several years. For each theme, we discuss what we're monitoring. For each implication, we discuss potential investor actions.
Importantly, an assessment of slowing momentum does not mean that we see the Theme or Implication fading away.
I highly suggest you take the time to read the full report here, it's not too long, well written and flows well from topic to topic (admittedly, I have an economics and market background, so for me it was a nice read).
The two most interesting sections for a macro buff like me were "Inflation and Uncertainty as Policy Outcomes" on page 14 and "Diverging Policy Paths, Diverging Market Outcomes" on page 16.
I note the following:
The acceleration in U.S. efforts to address global imbalances, combined with Trump’s unpredictable and unconventional approach, could weigh on the USD in the years ahead while potentially lifting inflation and bond yields. To help manage the resulting risks and
opportunities, investors can:
- Shift fixed income exposure to shorter maturities, given the potential for yield curve steepening. This potential appears especially pronounced in the U.S., where an increasingly-politicized Fed could weigh on yields in the short end, while policy risks and uncertainty contribute to wider term premia – and thus yields – at longer maturities. Tariffs and a weaker USD could add further impetus for higher U.S. yields if they boost the cost of imports, with knock-on effects to inflation more generally.
- Explore potential alternatives to the USD as a store of value and safe haven during periods of market stress. Possibilities include currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, in addition to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
- Consider assets tied to production and the physical economy, including in strategically important areas such as AI- and energy-related infrastructure, technology and health care. Given that you “need stuff to make stuff”, opportunities could arise in commodities, materials, energy and other natural resources as governments look to build their country’s productive capacity while securing supply chains. Many of these assets tend to fare relatively well through inflationary periods, providing a potential complement to other inflation-sensitive assets such as real return bonds.
And this:
To manage risks and opportunities presented by rising volatility and widening dispersion, investors can:
- Incorporate a “macro-aware” approach to asset allocation that potentially benefits from identifying winners and losers in the shift towards a rebalanced global economy – one in which the U.S. plays a different role than investors have become used to over the past several decades.
- Rebalance geographic exposures away from the U.S. to take advantage of opportunities in countries and regions pursuing new, often fiscally-supported, growth strategies. Doing so could also help limit concentration and valuation risks arising from recent “U.S. exceptionalism” and outperformance. Canada’s response to recent trade and geopolitical pressures emanating from the U.S., including a renewed focus on large nationally-strategic infrastructure projects and a reduction in interprovincial trade barriers, could widen the breadth of investment opportunities domestically.
- Adopt tail risk hedging strategies that can help limit drawdowns through extreme market moves and events. Since such strategies become more expensive when uncertainty and expected volatility are elevated, consistently monitoring market conditions can help identify opportunistic implementation windows. Potential avenues to limiting left tail risk include the use of derivatives, owning safe-haven assets that tend to outperform through market drawdowns, reducing exposures to high-risk assets, and diversifying across asset classes, risk factors, and geographies.
There's a lot more so I recommend you really take the time to read the report here.
I commend Nick Chamie, Senior Managing Director, Head of Total Portfolio and Capital Markets and Chief Strategist of IMCO and his team for producing this report.
It is worth noting that IMCO is the only large Canadian pension fund that produces this type of macro/ market outlook every year and publishes it and I commend them for that.
It's not easy, it forces you to really sit with all the teams and think through all the major themes.
Obviously Nick Chamie has the final say but as he states below, it was a collaborative effort.
Again, sticking your neck out isn't easy, a lot can happen over the course of the year and trends can shift abruptly.
One trend I'm keenly focused on right now is whether the slide in the US dollar is overdone.
My indicators tell me we are closer to the end of the downtrend and I expect the greenback to snap back. When that happens, you'll see the rally in silver, gold and copper fade.
That's more of a cyclical call, but even structurally, I have a very hard time being short US dollars even with everything going on with deglobalization.
Also important to understand you can't have a very weak US dollar without stoking inflation fears because import prices will rise.
By the same token, you can't have a very strong euro, yen, Canadian dollar because it will impact their exports.
All this to say, people get carried away with their currency calls, I just find there are too many dollar bears out there and that tells me the trend can reverse fast.
Anyways, I need to take the weekend to reread this report more carefully but I definitely recommend you do so as well and even discuss it with your economics and capital markets and private market teams.
Below, Nick Chamie, Senior Managing Director, Head of Total Portfolio and Capital Markets and Chief Strategist of IMCO discusses their Wold View and how they all worked on it to understand the trends and major themes impacting their investments.
Next, Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Chair of Global Research, Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, CEO of MCC Global Enterprises, discuss dollar weakness, debasement, metals momentum, EM optimism, and crypto’s delayed response.
Third, Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macro, and Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Federal Reserve, the dollar and much more.
Fourth, A prolonged weakening of the dollar brings with it a number of dangers for the US economy, according to Robert Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“It is true, a weaker dollar boosts exports. However, the United States has $39 trillion of debt on its way to $40 trillion plus, and when you have that much debt, I think stability of the currency probably trumps exports,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
“I actually think the US is going to want to see a stable dollar and wants to see stability. They want to be able to sell the long end of the Treasury curve: a stable dollar helps,” he said.
































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