
Rian Howlett , Karen Friar and Ines Ferré of Yahoo Finance
report the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq close mixed to cap a volatile week as Fed cut in doubt:
US stocks recovered from earlier losses on Friday, battling back from Wall Street's steepest sell-off
in over a month as investors await more economic data in the coming
days ahead of the Federal Reserve's next rate decision in December.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped around 0.6%. But the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) came back from being deeply in the red, with the S&P falling below the flatline, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.1%.
Wall Street's previous bruising session
saw the major indexes log their sharpest one-day declines in over a
month. Tech stocks saw their earlier losses shrink mid-morning Friday
after AI concerns drove an exodus from riskier assets to less hotly
valued sectors. Still, Tesla (TSLA) shares remained under pressure and broke below $400 before going green. Nvidia (NVDA) shares also rebounded to turn positive.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) also continued to suffer, falling below $96,000 for the first time in over six months. The cryptocurrency is down over 20% from its peak in October.
The mood is unsettled as worries grow that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of policy easing, given the increasingly hawkish tone taken by its officials. Traders now see less than 50% odds of a quarter-point rate cut next month, down from about 95% a month ago. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari
became the latest to lose appetite for rate cuts as he flagged
"resilience" in the US economy and continued concerns over inflation.
Policymakers lack insight into price pressures as well as the jobs market after the record six-week federal shutdown. On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the September jobs report will be released next Thursday, Nov 20.
In a nod to price pressures, President Trump is preparing to make substantial cuts to tariffs
to bring down high food costs, a concern for voters in recent state and
local elections. Several trade deals with Argentina, Brazil, and other
Latin American countries also aim to make the likes of bananas and
coffee more affordable.
The recent sell-off is not a 'tech wreck', but an 'AI reckoning' Tech's recent sell-off hasn't changed the long-term thesis on AI, says one Wall Street strategist.
"What’s
happened recently in the market isn’t even close to a tech wreck, but
it may be a bit of a tech reckoning," said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan
Stanley's Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy.
"Given
how much AI-related stocks have rallied in recent months, some
retrenchment is perfectly normal," he added. "The recent volatility
hasn’t altered the longer-term bullish case for the AI leadership."
Skelly said health care remains one of the market’s key overlooked stories.
"Even though it’s been the S&P 500’s strongest sector over the past three months, valuations are still attractive."
The S&P 500 Health Care ETF (XLV) has rallied 10% since late September. Year-to-date its up 10%.
Sean Conlon and Pia Singh of CNBC also report the Nasdaq closes higher, snapping three-day losing streak as tech stocks recover some ground:
The Nasdaq Composite rebounded on Friday as investors bought up shares of key technology
stocks a day after the group led Wall Street to its worst day in more
than a month.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.13% to finish at 22,900.59, snapping a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 finished near the flatline, down just 0.05% at 6,734.11, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 309.74 points, or 0.65%, to settle at 47,147.48. The three indexes
bounced back significantly from their lows earlier in the day, which
had the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down 1.9% and about 1.4%, respectively.
The Dow had fallen almost 600 points, or roughly 1.3%.
The tech trade gained some ground after coming under pressure in recent days. Leading artificial intelligence players Nvidia and Oracle both reversed course from their losses seen in the previous session, as did Palantir Technologies and Tesla, both of which saw a drop of more than 6% in the prior day. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) closed up 0.5% on Friday, making up some of its 2% decline from Thursday.
Major U.S. indexes on Thursday posted their worst one-day performance since Oct. 10. The 30-stock Dow lost about 800 points, taking back gains seen in Wednesday’s session when it crossed the 48,000 level. The Nasdaq plummeted more than 2%, as technology giants came away battered.
“We’re
kind of switching back and forth between this risk-on [and] risk-off
type of a trade,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks
Investment Management. “I think people are looking to maybe reposition
going into the end of the year, into 2026, just knowing the
concentration that most people have built up because of the solid
performance from these technology companies.”
“There will be
somewhat of a floor, I think, in this volatility. We just expect that
you’ll probably have more of these 1% to 2% moves up and down till close
to the end of the year just as people reposition and de-risk their
portfolios,” he also said.
After the week’s wild swings, Nasdaq
ended down 0.5% for the period. However, both the S&P 500 and the
Dow held on to gains, up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
Concerns about the AI trade have emerged more seriously this week, with the recent wipeout in once-hot cloud stock Oracle
further spooking investors about elevated tech valuations, a massive
surge in debt financing and soaring AI capex plans. To be sure, Oracle’s
growth is uniquely more reliant on its cloud deal with OpenAI and the
company has far less cash compared to hyperscalers.
“AI is truly
testing the limits of Wall Street spreadsheets right now,” David
Krakauer, vice president of portfolio management at Mercer Advisors,
told CNBC, adding that investors pricing in “so much of this future
growth that they really can’t measure yet” just spurs an “environment of
swings.” “The valuations are so stretched, and any little movement in
expectations on either profits or interest rates is going to have a
bigger and bigger effect.”
Mounting unease
about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision exacerbated
the existing pressure on the market this week. Traders are now pricing
in a less than 50% chance that the central bank will cut its benchmark
overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point during their
December meeting, which is lower than the 62.9% likelihood that markets
priced in earlier this week and 95.5% chance a month ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Investors
are counting on another rate cut in December to revive the economy, as
well as risk-taking on Wall Street. But some Fed members are growing
concerned that inflation is too sticky to warrant another rate decrease
this year.
The U.S. government shutdown, which was the longest in
history, ended Wednesday evening after stretching on for more than six
weeks. That development had been expected to end a period of time where
investors were operating without important economic data. Instead, it
has raised new questions. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt
suggested that some economic data that was due out during the impasse might never be released.
This week was mostly a continuation of last week when tech shares got clobbered.
Will the Fed cut again? My money is on "yes" but that's not what is driving the market now.
As I stated last week, November 15th is when 13Fs for funds become available and you always see this volatility right before positions are made public.
You had a huge run-up in so many AI related stocks that it's only normal to see a pullback.
And all this volatility is exactly what large hedge funds crave, they can buy the dips going into year-end.
What are they buying? I'm pretty sure they loaded up on Oracle shares at the open today:

When you see an intraday reversal like that on a Friday, something is up. That company reports earnings on December 8th so keep an eye on it.
But not all AI stalwarts are feeling the love. Meta shares are down almost 20% in the last 2 weeks after it reported as investors ask "where's the AI beef?":
The concern is hyperscalers like Meta are spending way too much on AI, data centers, and not producing the AI revenues yet.
Whenever I see these big dips, I see them more as an opportunity to buy quality growth stocks at a discount.
It doesn't mean the share price can't go lower as the weekly chart remains bearish but I'm not in the camp that the AI bubble is over, at least not yet.
Don't forget, over 80% of portfolio managers are underperforming this year, so FOMO will kick in, all it takes is one good week and these stocks will rip higher.
What about Christmas 2018? Can we get another disaster like that? It's possible but unlikely, the Fed learned its lesson back then.
Anyway, as I stated above, 13Fs all become available next week, I'll be covering top funds' quarterly activity and I'm always suspicious when I see downside volatility before they become public.
One thing I can share with you is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new position in Alphabet,
making the Google parent the conglomerate’s 10th largest equity holding
at the end of September, according to a regulatory filing:
Berkshire
disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet at the end of the third
quarter, a surprising move given Buffett’s traditional value investing
philosophy and reluctance toward high-growth, tech names. While
Berkshire has owned Apple for years, Buffett has called it more of a consumer products company than a pure tech play.
The
purchase was also likely made by Berkshire investment managers Todd
Combs or Ted Weschler, who have been more active in technology names.
One of them initiated an investment in Amazon back in 2019, and Berkshire still owns $2.2 billion worth of the e-commerce shares.
Alphabet has been the market’s standout winner this year with shares rallying 46%. Strong demand for artificial intelligence has driven solid momentum in Alphabet’s cloud business.
Buffett previously admitted that he “blew it”
by failing to invest early in Google even though he had insight into
its advertising potential. Berkshire’s auto insurance unit Geico was an
early customer of Google, paying the search engine 10 bucks every time
someone clicked on the ad at the time.
“I had seen the product
work, and I knew the kind of margins [they had],” Buffett said in 2018.
“I didn’t know enough about technology to know whether this really was
the one that would stop the competitive race.”
Google shares recently hit a 52-week high before the latest tech selloff. It's fair to say they will likely be among the big AI winners once this is all over. From a trading perspective, this is a good move (shares are up 4% after the close after Berskshire made the disclosure).
Alright, let me end by sharing this week's top performing US large cap stocks and the worst-performing ones (see full list here and here):

Below, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what's happening with the crypto trade, if crypto treasuries become more favored than the actual crypto and much more.
Next, Requisite Capital’s Bryn Talkington and Northwestern Mutual’s Matt Stucky join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the latest news affecting markets.
Third, Paul Hickey, Bespoke Investment Group co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the recent equity market action, why the air left some of the megacap tech stocks and much more.
Fourth, 'Fast Money' traders talk their takeaways from this week's market action.
Lastly, Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Kilburg's thoughts on recent equity selloffs, the two other stocks Kilburg favors and much more.
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