The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year Treasury to Spike to 6 Percent

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 17, 2024 ~ Arif Husain is the head of Global Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee. Husain holds a B.Sc. (honors) in banking and international finance from the City University London, Cass Business School. When Husain speaks, Wall Street listens. What Husain has been saying since October is that the U.S. is on a collision course with higher interest rates. In October, Husain released his interest rate outlook for the next six months, writing the following about the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, whose yield impacts mortgage rates and a wide swath of debt instruments: “I think that the 10-year Treasury yield will test the 5.0% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve. There are three dynamics at play: 1. Fed rate … Continue reading →

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$663 Billion in Cash Assets Have Gone Poof at the Largest U.S. Banks

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 16, 2024 ~ According to the December 6 release of Federal Reserve H.8 data, cash assets at the 25 largest U.S. banks have dropped by a stunning $663 billion from their peak levels on December 15, 2021. (See chart above, taken from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED graph, which is updated on an ongoing basis. Put your cursor on the FRED chart line here to get the weekly dollar figures.) Notice also on the chart that cash levels at the largest U.S. banks were a sea of calm for more than two decades prior to the financial crash of 2008, but since that time cash assets have displayed wild gyrations, rising sharply then precipitously plunging. It should provide no comfort to Americans that the wild gyrations on the chart above are a product of the central bank of the United States (the “Fed”) inserting itself, … Continue reading →

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Donald Trump to Ring Bell at New York Stock Exchange Today as Hit List Posters Appear in Manhattan Targeting Wall Street CEOs

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 12, 2024 ~ The Associated Press is reporting that Donald Trump will ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange at 9:30 a.m. this morning as Time Magazine is expected to name him its “Person of the Year,” also today. This appears to be the latest in growing efforts by Trump’s marketing machine to define deviancy down while attempting to normalize Trump’s unprecedented monetizing of the Presidency as nothing more than good ole capitalism. (The Trump Organization now has its own “official retail website,” TrumpStore.com, hawking everything from sweaters and gift wrap to a line of home goods, all emblazoned with the “Trump” name.) If Trump does show up this morning to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, it will be his first time doing so. It will also be the first time that a 34-count convicted felon has … Continue reading →

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