The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year Treasury to Spike to 6 Percent

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 17, 2024 ~ Arif Husain is the head of Global Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee. Husain holds a B.Sc. (honors) in banking and international finance from the City University London, Cass Business School. When Husain speaks, Wall Street listens. What Husain has been saying since October is that the U.S. is on a collision course with higher interest rates. In October, Husain released his interest rate outlook for the next six months, writing the following about the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, whose yield impacts mortgage rates and a wide swath of debt instruments: “I think that the 10-year Treasury yield will test the 5.0% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve. There are three dynamics at play: 1. Fed rate … Continue reading →

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 – by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators – those that forecast a recession at least one year beforehand – in almost two years. That’s because the hurricane force tailwind of the supply-side deflationary unlinking of the global supply chain completely swamped everything else. So if I […]

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Over my 40 something years, I spent much of my time in career in Supply Chain or certain aspects of manufacturing in different industries. The discipline I knew, learned, and was certified in could and was used by me to streamline what companies were doing at the time to their benefit of lowering costs or […]

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\I’m seeing people attacking universities, particularly private universities, for accumulating large endowments while allowing their graduates to accrue education loans that saddle them with debt for years or decades and cannot normally be discharged by bankruptcy. Why aren’t these universities the lenders? Setting aside the question of whether it is in the national interest to […]

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Perhaps, I am wrong? We have Trump and others deciding the livelihood of a nation’s population who have obviously walked a different path to success than those they are making decisions for today. In 2016, Trump first came to office as the Pres (in case you forgot). His taking office was the result of the […]

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$663 Billion in Cash Assets Have Gone Poof at the Largest U.S. Banks

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 16, 2024 ~ According to the December 6 release of Federal Reserve H.8 data, cash assets at the 25 largest U.S. banks have dropped by a stunning $663 billion from their peak levels on December 15, 2021. (See chart above, taken from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED graph, which is updated on an ongoing basis. Put your cursor on the FRED chart line here to get the weekly dollar figures.) Notice also on the chart that cash levels at the largest U.S. banks were a sea of calm for more than two decades prior to the financial crash of 2008, but since that time cash assets have displayed wild gyrations, rising sharply then precipitously plunging. It should provide no comfort to Americans that the wild gyrations on the chart above are a product of the central bank of the United States (the “Fed”) inserting itself, … Continue reading →

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The uninsured numbers dropped since the advent of the ACA. Lower costs would have been available if one Congressional Rep from Michigan had not interfered. I will find that information and add it. Still 26 million uninsured in the US. The State of Health Insurance in America, Econofact, Mark Shepard The Issue: Universal access to […]

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I am sitting out here in Arizona watching the Semiconductor plants being built. The one we are closest to has been going on for two years now. I am going to guess it is near completion. TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025. Upcoming […]

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Capital Gains: Realization Does Not Matter – by Steve Roth Wealth Economics You’re looking at your asset portfolio and decide to sell or buy some ETF shares. Click. The transaction is a dollar-for-dollar asset swap between you and your counterparty, at current market prices: M assets (bank deposits) in exchange for ETF assets, and vice versa. Equal […]

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Getting needed and proper healthcare is a task in the USA. A task in the richest global nation when getting healthcare should not be in the United States. Even if the care is available, it may come at a cost which prevents a person from getting care. The programs which can help a person get […]

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DOGE today, gone tomorrow “With a little more than a month until Inauguration Day, one of the most fascinating parts of the new administration isn’t being led by President-elect Donald Trump. The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has arguably garnered more attention than Trump’s plans for tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration. Co-heads Elon Musk […]

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A More Democratic Economy A 1787 newly minted United States of America wasn’t far removed from an old Europe where not so long before all property belonged to the crown or state; where only a hundred years or so earlier John Locke had first defended the idea of private property at a time when most […]

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Looks like Trump wants to kill the US Postal Service. Postmaster General DeJoy has been bent on killing the USPS in a death by a thousand cuts. The Trump administration will try to kill it outright, and hand over its responsibility to the private sector. Ironic, because the big losers will be rural residents that […]

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– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter REO: lender Real Estate Owned We will NOT see a surge in housing foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes. Last week, CoreLogic reported […]

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I subscribe to The Atlantic and have done so for years. It would accompany me on long trips to Asia where I would fall asleep at one page, wake up later, and start reading where I left off. Spending 13 hours in a plane to Norita requires some type of brain stimulation. And then from […]

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Sorry, our system is f’d up and one of us was murdered as a result. We admit the United Health system does not work as well as it should. At United Health, we can sympathize with all of you hit with higher healthcare costs and bad results. We at United Healthcare are “willing to partner […]

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I live in Arizona and I will not miss Sinema. “Senate Democrats were livid after Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), two longtime members of their caucus, voted Wednesday (12/11/2024) to block President Biden’s  nominee, Lauren McFerran, to serve another five-year term on the National Labor Relations Board.” The impact of which will allow Trump to place an anti-labor member […]

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Weekly Indicators for December 9 – 13  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the short-term forecast and nowcast have remained relatively constant, the “action” has been in the long leading indicators – some things good, some bad. The biggest thing that happened this week is that the […]

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Can President Biden cancel student loans? Why not? Newly elected President Trump has every intention to pardon the October 6th insurrectionists. Most of the loans depicted in the graphs have been recast into new loans having the interest rolled into them. It created a misconception of these being new loans instead of older loans. This […]

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I grew up at the western edge of the Eastern Time zone. There was enough daylight at 9:30 PM in the summer to finish up mowing the lawn. I’ve never found the switch between Standard Time and DST to be problematic. Jet lag after a flight to Europe is *much* more uncomfortable. I see where […]

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