One thing that was bad was June's durable goods, here

While the report is for June, new orders affect Q3 in terms of later shipments.

GDP is 71% personal consumption, 12.7% exports, imports subtracts off about 17%, investment is about 12.6% and government about 20%.

These components do vary quarter to quarter but personal consumption is always around 70%.

Durable goods report is manufacturing, so it's being produced, not consumed. That said, a drop in new orders isn't too good for further down the line.

Bottom line, even if GDP goes negative, the problem is corporations now routinely fire people the minute they see any negative anything, even when their profits soar.

I still do not expect anything like Q4 2008, Q1 2009. If it goes into a double dip, I expect it to be mild..

but how long does one have to have a lost decade, an economy not growing enough to create jobs, sustain it's population, before the NBER calls this a depression or something more significant beyond keyword recession.

In other words, this isn't looking too cyclical, as in a couple of quarters, to me.

They know they can't lose. They know that people will vote to authorize them to continue the war against us. Okay, so only half the electorate still votes, but that's enough for them to claim legitimacy, the consent of the governed. And that half will never give up their vote because it is their precious right to vote for people who won't represent them. It is their voice in government to vote for people who will not allow public opinion to influence policy decisions. Why, if they didn't vote, the bad guys would win--never mind that no matter how often they vote and no matter who they vote for, the bad guys always win anyway.

What would happen if the corporations spent their usual billions of dollars to get their puppets elected and nobody except the 2% who benefit from corporate-run government voted? Would anyone still believe that the government is still legitimate and still has the consent of the governed? But then we'd lose our credit rating and no other country would loan money to us. We'd be bankrupt. Well, we are anyway. But as long as that credit rating holds, the government can continue to borrow money with which to wage profitable wars abroad, all the while moaning that it is too broke to provide jobs here at home.

If we didn't vote, the government would fall. Then we could write a new Constitution that vests power in the hands of the people instead of in the hands of "representatives" who don't represent us. We could institute honest elections where the popular vote in the final say and cannot be overruled. We could renounce any debts incurred without our consent and put the crooks who fleeced us in prison. We could send the war criminals to the Hague to be tried.

Not that there's the slightest chance that this will happen. The 50% who vote will always turn out to do their civic duty to a state that is destroying them. They'll continue to vote to empower the 2% because they believe that some day they'll win the lottery and will be in that 2%. They know the odds, but it's the only hope, the only chance they've got. And politicians know this, so they sell themselves as agents of hope and change. And it doesn't really matter how many of us stop voting because there's another sucker born every minute who will sell their grandchildren's future for the right to cast a ballot that doesn't even have to be counted for somebody they won't be able to hold accountable until long after the irreparable damage is done and cannot be undone.

The act of voting is the act of declaring oneself incompetent and appointing guardians to manage one's affairs. What's tragic is that no matter how many times those guardians steal the funds they were entrusted to manage on our behalf, that 50% will keep voting to authorize them to do so because THEY REALLY ARE INCOMPETENT. Oh sure, they can pay their rent and taxes if they happen to be lucky enough to have a job, but they're incompetent to make decisions about how their tax money should be spent. If they had power, they'd do exactly what our politicians do because they, like the representatives they vote for, care only about themselves and have no concern for others. Lacking social consciousness and guided solely by greed, they sympathize with the crooks they elect because they aspire to be crooks like that, or at least admire those who achieve that goal.

Great article, as usual, Michael. Of course having repeated the same things over and over for years, we do get better at saying it. The problem is that the few who can understand what we're saying are not the majority. The majority will continue to support predatory capitalism even while it roasts them, eats them, and picks their bones. To put limits on capitalism would not only be socialism, but it would put limits on their dreams of becoming greedy crooked pigs like the people they vote for. I agree with everything you say, except the last part of your comment responding to Robert. Our politicians are exactly like the people they represent. If voters weren't every bit as evil as the people they vote for, they wouldn't be voters, they'd be revolutionaries.

This whole theater is all about creating a massive "crisis" and then claim "they had to" in order to "compromise" and thus avoid "disaster" by "default" ....

and that's why they just royally F@@$'ED old people, sick people and pretty much 99% of Americans.

It's just positively disgusting. I know default is real, but this is unreal. They are putting a gun to the head of America with their manufactured political theater, all to slash social safety nets.

Notice how they have the entire press not talking about that outrage, instead their political theater?

Of the reports over the last month, how many have focused in on the actual cuts and the fact Americans, more than ever, need social security and health care?

I'm positively sickened.

I think McCain had a lot to recommend him as, you might say, the last moderate Republican standing.

What decided me against McCain was when he began to campaign on getting us into yet another war, namely, the Russo-Georgian War. I recalled what happened in the Clinton administration after Clinton campaigned on getting the U.S. involved in the Yugoslavian Civil War (or War of Independence of Croatia, etc.) -- we actually got into the Yugoslav conflict! That was unconstitutional, dangerous and unnecessary (most likely not something that Clinton inherited by way of NSC pre-existing policy, at least not as more than just another option on the table).

So, it looked to me in 2008 like McCain might actually get us into a war with Russia. A lot of world powers have gone up against Russia, actually moving into Russian territory, and all have met with disaster.

Also, McCain was openly teemed up -- through a major D.C. professional lobbyist firm -- with the then-president of Georgia.

BTW: I am not here judging the merits on either side of the Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war. It's just that I thought (and continue to think) U.S. involvement in that war, at a time when we were already involved in at least two major wars of occupation, was extremely dangerous. I thought then (and continue to think) that McCain -- all due credit to the man for his combat and POW experiences -- was actually still fighting the Vietnam War. I appreciate the sentiment, but I don't think that our global security policy should be determined by sentiment.

"weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth"

"demons dragged kicking and screaming"

"It reminds me of that scene in The Exorcist"

"They will say anything in a variety of voices"

Thanks to 'Bruce Bishop' for an excellent parody of TP religious rhetoric!

Of course, Bishop's comment is wholly political and intended as a parody of the TP --

"Kudos to ... the brave citizen legislators ... elected to fight this battle."

LOL. Thanks for the humor!

"The Tea Party mantra is all about the US Govt staying our of our lives and living within their means."

Yes, exactly, the so-called 'Tea Party' has a "mantra" and not a message!

Yes, the TP has a "mantra," because the TP is religious in nature.

And, like many religions, self-anointed leaders of the TP are profiteering opportunists. In particular, TP opportunists are limited-partnered up to exploit insider information to play the precious metals markets like an over-amped electric guitar.

Yes, the TP is all about keeping U.S. government out of any possible investigation of the rampant corruption in Congress!

Yes, I've heard the spin ... the only reason that the Great Recession continues is some nebulous "anti-business" atmosphere that is entirely due to "the liberals" and/or "the Democrats" and/or "the leftist mass media" (the last referring to, like, CNN ... all of them except FOX).

So, thanks to 'brleed' for putting an apt tag on this particular little subsystem of the greater GOP delusional system.

What a mess.

I think I could use "What a mess" as a comment on a good 3/4 of what is posted here.

So many messes, so much at stake, yet we see so little being done, except for adding new messes.

What a mess.

"I am asking you Robert, where was my safety net when I needed it?"

This is a curious comment in the middle of the rest of what you say.

Is your complaint that when you made less and as a new immigrant you didn't qualify for government help you couldn't get government assistance and now that you've been here more than five years, you make too much to receive it?

If you had two kids in New Jersey schools most of the time you've been here, the tab to the district was way more than what you paid in state and local taxes, especially in the early years. As you know, educational spending in NJ is very high, about the highest in the nation. So your family received many thousands of dollars in educational subsidies from your fellow townspeople and New Jerseyans.

In addition, if you came to America not speaking English, then I would think you came via a family reunification visa or by being a refugee. What did we ask of you when we admitted you to this country?

Why are you so critical of our system? After all we have a much smaller social safety net than any of First World nation except Japan, as I have found to my sorrow now that I have been jobless for so long.

Except for our financial situation, things haven't changed that much here since 1999. You knew what you were getting into and if you didn't like it, you should not have come here, frankly.

I'd be the last person to say that newcomers can't complain about something, but if you're going to complain about the American perspective and system as a whole, well -- you're the one asked to come here, we didn't ask you!