This post is using February graphs. But when it comes to consumer lending, see March Data (graphs here), released after you wrote this post I believe, show a sudden spike up, and it's dramatic, in consumer lending. Business has a small uptick but consumer is dramatic.
I’m getting "down" from midtowng’s two graphs above: “Consumer Revolving Credit Owned by Commercial Banks” & “Total consumer Credit Outstanding”. Also, he writes: “The question is why is no one borrowing money”?
Isn't that the issue that midtowng is discussing?
and yes I know Tom, I owe some graphs, charts and digging in around some numbers. That said, this is what's up right now and frankly, it sounds like at least a few of these amendments could pass (assuming they kick out the financial sector lobbyists from D.C.)
Forgot to mention that, yeah, they are shunning the Goldman Sachs lobbyists but how about JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, even Warren Buffet and our never ending parade of hedge fund managers, who make Goldman Sachs arrogance look like the Amish plain and humble.
The band-aids will continue to be manufactured. No world leader is willing to make the decisions necessary, which in simple terms, is to not go into deeper debt to solve a debt-related problem. We've all seen how Merkel was berated by everyone (including US leaders) except most Germans for constantly saying no to Greece. However, as we've seen and I think we all knew, she is caving in and giving of Germany's funds (and sovereignty) to save Greece. As long as there is money, there is a band-aid; until the money disappears, cannot be printed, cannot be borrowed, cannot be forced through higher taxes, etc then nothing will change. The bailouts will continue. It's just that simple.
We're on a financial crash course but no world leader, especially the US, is willing to admit that our course ends in disaster.
You're right Robert, "...they will run out of them, which might be now". But band-aids is not what we've run out of; it's 'time' that we're out of.
Do I understand this correctly: “Consumer loans all time high” and “Consumer Credit Down"? What is the difference between loans and credit from an econommic point of view. With a loan the consumer is given the cash to buy the goods from the merchant vs credit the merchant gets the cash directly from the lender. In terms of the economy the same amount of money is put into the system - the same amount of goods purchased...NO?
That's been the ongoing activity for months now. I'm just wondering when they will run out of them, which might be now.
Then, I saw a claim (unreal) that all of the past defaults, problems like Mexico, Russia, Asian Crisis (Thailand, S. Korea) had "little effect" on the U.S. (due to DOW/NASDAQ)
I don't think this is the same thing here. The U.S. was flush with cash when those happened and the IMF as well was.
That doesn't mean there won't be a quick band aid solution applied.
A friend of mine once told me, "Never underestimate the ability of the powerful to manage a crisis." That's different from actually "fixing" anything.
The big "C" (contagion) and maybe a U.S. ramification post to give more info. I just looked over in our middle column and there, all of our financial bloggers headlines are switching from Goldman Sachs to Sovereign default/PIIGS.
in a huge way. They received 100% payout on a host of CDSes they bought against CDOs, all paid by AIG. Maybe Levin can't explain it to the American people or in the hearing, but this is real. See the real screw job blog post for the details. The amounts are there as an attachment.
It looks like the crisis is propelling itself now.
[Y]ields on Greek two-year notes jumped to a record 26 percent ... The yield soared almost 600 basis points at one stage today. Ireland’s jumped 90 basis points to 4.64 percent, Portugal’s increased 93 basis points to 6.24 percent and Spain’s rose 20 basis points to 2.26 percent.
What was most surprising to me watching the hearing was the ineptitude of Senator Levin. He tried to demonstrate that GS had benefited by the government bailout of AIG. Blankfein answered his question well, explaining how that was not the case and Levin just kept repeating the same claim as if he had not heard the answer. It seemed as if he had run out of questions or something. I shudder to think our senators are that dumb. No wonder we are in such a mess.
If the FNMA and others with actual exposure had purchased this type protection against default, for loans that they either held or had guaranteed with taxpayer backing, we'd be applauding their foresight. Perhaps now we'd even be thanking Goldman for their innovative work. Too bad.
If it's not Greece, then it's Spain or Portugal that will take down the Eurozone.
I'm thankful that the most powerful leader in Europe is Merkel. She's making some hard and unpopular decisions regarding how to handle Greece. To clarify, it's unpopular with leaders NOT residents of Greece or Germany. It's great for Europe and the world that Europe has a leader who is willing to make the right calls - primarily, no bailout (thus far anyway). I wish our leaders here in the US had her guts. Instead, they drop to their knees at any whim in which to give away taxpayer dollars.
Praise for Merkel aside, if I recall, the next payment due by Greece is 10 May; personally I believe that Merkel will cave on 9 May and agree to bailout Greece. Although it would be better for everyone if Greece is allowed to fail.
The irony of this matter is that Germany's only REAL choice is: Who should we permit to destroy the Euro? Greece, Spain, or Portugal.
It seems that America started this "bailout mentality" and unfortunately, the world was watching and listening. It's nice to be a world leader - but it's too bad that when the "world leader" jumps off a cliff, the world follows without asking why.
and it's an all time high spike. If you follow the link it's all graphed out, including the 02/10 data.
On the entire "V" claim, I say that's crap. We have a "U" going on at best, the economy is recovering but it's sluggish and unemployment is still in the tank. Every week we see initial unemployment claims that are way too high on top of things.
This post is using February graphs. But when it comes to consumer lending, see March Data (graphs here), released after you wrote this post I believe, show a sudden spike up, and it's dramatic, in consumer lending. Business has a small uptick but consumer is dramatic.
I think this is what Tom is referring to.
Selling bonds is technically borrowing, and that is going gangbusters, while still not showing up in the credit numbers.
I honestly don't know why the difference, although I can make a guess: implicit government backing of the bond market.
I’m getting "down" from midtowng’s two graphs above: “Consumer Revolving Credit Owned by Commercial Banks” & “Total consumer Credit Outstanding”. Also, he writes: “The question is why is no one borrowing money”?
Isn't that the issue that midtowng is discussing?
and yes I know Tom, I owe some graphs, charts and digging in around some numbers. That said, this is what's up right now and frankly, it sounds like at least a few of these amendments could pass (assuming they kick out the financial sector lobbyists from D.C.)
Forgot to mention that, yeah, they are shunning the Goldman Sachs lobbyists but how about JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, even Warren Buffet and our never ending parade of hedge fund managers, who make Goldman Sachs arrogance look like the Amish plain and humble.
The band-aids will continue to be manufactured. No world leader is willing to make the decisions necessary, which in simple terms, is to not go into deeper debt to solve a debt-related problem. We've all seen how Merkel was berated by everyone (including US leaders) except most Germans for constantly saying no to Greece. However, as we've seen and I think we all knew, she is caving in and giving of Germany's funds (and sovereignty) to save Greece. As long as there is money, there is a band-aid; until the money disappears, cannot be printed, cannot be borrowed, cannot be forced through higher taxes, etc then nothing will change. The bailouts will continue. It's just that simple.
We're on a financial crash course but no world leader, especially the US, is willing to admit that our course ends in disaster.
You're right Robert, "...they will run out of them, which might be now". But band-aids is not what we've run out of; it's 'time' that we're out of.
What kind of crappy, watered down crud is a result, I've yet to find out. Will write an overview update soon.
Last I saw you are quoting last months data. This is April data and we have a spike up as in increase.
Do I understand this correctly: “Consumer loans all time high” and “Consumer Credit Down"? What is the difference between loans and credit from an econommic point of view. With a loan the consumer is given the cash to buy the goods from the merchant vs credit the merchant gets the cash directly from the lender. In terms of the economy the same amount of money is put into the system - the same amount of goods purchased...NO?
That's been the ongoing activity for months now. I'm just wondering when they will run out of them, which might be now.
Then, I saw a claim (unreal) that all of the past defaults, problems like Mexico, Russia, Asian Crisis (Thailand, S. Korea) had "little effect" on the U.S. (due to DOW/NASDAQ)
I don't think this is the same thing here. The U.S. was flush with cash when those happened and the IMF as well was.
That doesn't mean there won't be a quick band aid solution applied.
A friend of mine once told me, "Never underestimate the ability of the powerful to manage a crisis." That's different from actually "fixing" anything.
income.
That is about $40,000 higher then BLS country wide median.
So in my neck of the woods, my second grade teacher friend making into the $70,000 range is making RI wages.
State median income is @$50,000. So to get from $50,000 to $70,000 ya need 40% more salary. I better go get to work.
County-Level Unemployment and Median Household Income for Pennsylvania
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/unemployment/RDList2.asp?ST=PA&image.x=4&im...
Now on the RI stat.
Could you have accidentally picked the highest wage which is Washington Country (over $70,000).
The RI State median is $54,500
County-Level Unemployment and Median Household Income for Rhode Island
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/unemployment/RDList2.asp?ST=RI&image.x=5&im...
The big "C" (contagion) and maybe a U.S. ramification post to give more info. I just looked over in our middle column and there, all of our financial bloggers headlines are switching from Goldman Sachs to Sovereign default/PIIGS.
in a huge way. They received 100% payout on a host of CDSes they bought against CDOs, all paid by AIG. Maybe Levin can't explain it to the American people or in the hearing, but this is real. See the real screw job blog post for the details. The amounts are there as an attachment.
It looks like the crisis is propelling itself now.
One step to AA, with a negative outlook.
If only the rating agencies were as vigilant about corporate debt as they are about government debt.
What was most surprising to me watching the hearing was the ineptitude of Senator Levin. He tried to demonstrate that GS had benefited by the government bailout of AIG. Blankfein answered his question well, explaining how that was not the case and Levin just kept repeating the same claim as if he had not heard the answer. It seemed as if he had run out of questions or something. I shudder to think our senators are that dumb. No wonder we are in such a mess.
If the FNMA and others with actual exposure had purchased this type protection against default, for loans that they either held or had guaranteed with taxpayer backing, we'd be applauding their foresight. Perhaps now we'd even be thanking Goldman for their innovative work. Too bad.
If it's not Greece, then it's Spain or Portugal that will take down the Eurozone.
I'm thankful that the most powerful leader in Europe is Merkel. She's making some hard and unpopular decisions regarding how to handle Greece. To clarify, it's unpopular with leaders NOT residents of Greece or Germany. It's great for Europe and the world that Europe has a leader who is willing to make the right calls - primarily, no bailout (thus far anyway). I wish our leaders here in the US had her guts. Instead, they drop to their knees at any whim in which to give away taxpayer dollars.
Praise for Merkel aside, if I recall, the next payment due by Greece is 10 May; personally I believe that Merkel will cave on 9 May and agree to bailout Greece. Although it would be better for everyone if Greece is allowed to fail.
The irony of this matter is that Germany's only REAL choice is: Who should we permit to destroy the Euro? Greece, Spain, or Portugal.
It seems that America started this "bailout mentality" and unfortunately, the world was watching and listening. It's nice to be a world leader - but it's too bad that when the "world leader" jumps off a cliff, the world follows without asking why.
and it's an all time high spike. If you follow the link it's all graphed out, including the 02/10 data.
On the entire "V" claim, I say that's crap. We have a "U" going on at best, the economy is recovering but it's sluggish and unemployment is still in the tank. Every week we see initial unemployment claims that are way too high on top of things.
February Consumer Credit Down by $11.5 Billion
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