Regulation at a federal level works like the police and fire under Boss Tweed. 2 Police Departments, many fire companies for such a small corrupt town like Washington. Here is what the fly on the Oval Office Wall told me.
When 'clients' have a problem, you can go to Boss Tweed in Washington. As JP Morgan told TR, 'Send your man to talk to my man and they will work it out'.Buffet went to Obama first. Then he used his homeboy lapdog Sen. Nelson. Nelson may be doing Obama' bidding.
$63 Bn in forward commodity contracts is speculation, not hedging. Exxon does not own inventories that large. Buffet wants to make the case that legitimate hedging should be allowed. Instead, he make the case for how the whole lot of them need to be treated,
I'll wager this action in Greece was prefaced by movements in the Credit Default Swaps markets. The same thing was happening the market in the summer of 2008. The swaps went higher and higher, then there was talk of illiquidity and bankruptcy etc. Media picks up on things and the stocks went lower. Then there are downgrades and soon - puff, gone.
This drove some of the banks out of business and came close to killing GE Capitol.
Big investors stand to gain here by killing Greece. 'They' know about it and still it happens. One of those investors is no doubt Goldman who still operates with impunity despite supposedly being on the radar. Its all smoke and mirrors.
I've yet to track this down due to some sort of mark-to-market FASB accounting change but I personally received "increases to my credit limit" on my cards, at once, no request from me, so frankly I suspect they did increase consumer credit on revolving. It's too huge of a spike to claim it's accounting (but disclaimer, I never could chase it down past the analysis I put up).
bonddad likes to draw fictional lines that are not real regression analysis onto graphs. nuf said. although more later on the "C" demand claim.
I have a few ideas, but I'm not sure how significant they are:
a) $10 Billion a month is saved by people not paying their mortgages. Are these people stupid enough to turn around and go on buying sprees with that money? It's possible.
b) the corporate bond market unfroze last year. In fact, junk bonds are back to 2007 levels, a sure sign that things are out of hand in the bond market again.
c) Tax refunds are 10% higher than last year. That's one way of getting money into consumer hands.
I don't know how many are bust but now that we're hammering for media headlines on Goldman Sachs, the good news is this fictional timebombs, there is a growing movement to plain ban them, along with CDSes.
Hey, when things do not add up from the mathematics, the models and create such a contagion web as these things do, that's my druthers. Ban them. Supposedly (cough, cough, we know this isn't true), the FDA has to approve drugs before they can enter the market to make sure new drugs don't kill people and/or actually work.
We need some sort of product regulator here so these financial companies cannot just create structured financial products and then sell them for billions, which in turn put the global economy at risk, when they do not even make sense from the math!
Notice how that is ignored. The mathematics are fiction on these things. Why is that ignored? Because to understand the models are based on faulty assumptions which are not mathematically valid in this context, one needs advanced probability theory and statistics to see that.
This is where the structured finance, the quantitative analysis community should be shot. I'm sorry, they did not flag this stuff enough to point out the models were mathematically invalid. The computation of a CDO is impossible to verify it's distribution is actually random, there are a host of problems on this front!
Folks, they need some engineers, some mathematics people, some computer engineers and some structured financial people as regulators.
I knew the C Word was coming on this. That's just unreal, 19%, wasn't it 13% or 12% yesterday?
These credit downgrades, while we're railing on the complicity of synthetic CDO fictional ratings, sovereign debt ratings really concern me because it can cause an entire country to implode.
What else do you have on Contagion here, is it a triggering of the yields and then the currency swaps that causes the downgrades of other nations and kind of just spirals into implosion?
In the not to distant future candidates for public office in cities and municipalities will run on the promise to "take the city county muni etc through bankruptcy cleanly" to get out from under the killing debt.
I know this blog shuns Bonddad because of a “slander”. But, sometimes debates get heated and one should not throw out the proverbial “baby with the bath water.” Bonddad and NDD put up some very significant empirical data (‘numbers and charts’). Today for example, they show significant numbers and charts that I would characterize as “the V recovery is in” as indicated by increases in shipments of Crushed Stone, and Lumber; both NY Times and WSJ reporting, “Consumers are spending again”; Economic Cycle Research Institute very bullish; and other positive leading and lagging indicators
My question to midtowng: Given these and many other positive economic numbers the Bonddad blog has been posting for months now, where is the money coming from to support this economic activity if not credit?
It's not just Goldman Sachs here, seems we're playing roulette wheel. I mean JP Morgan Chase, BoA, Citigroup are all guilty of similar doings. WaMu (now part of Chase) was beyond belief bad in originating subprime mortgages. All eyes are on Goldman instead of looking at this systemically.
OK.... here goes. Never mind the housing Fraud that Goldman Sachs was involved. Lets talk about the Current Fraud Goldman Sachs is involved in every day the stock market is open. Goldman Sachs has made over $100 million dollars a day stealing off investors and companies using secret codes and software designed by their Russian computer programmer, who by the wy was arrested by the FBI on July 3rd, 2009, yet the TV news media has covered up this story.
also, TV media, the Big three ( CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox business news ) have all been involved in the cover up of the Goldman Sachs scandals. Another Russian connection is when Goldman Sachs board of Directors secretly meet up with Hank Paulson in June 2008, just months before the financial crisis blew up. Where was this reported on TV.
Why has the TV's big three not connected the ties between Goldman Sachs and these Russian meetings and the Russian computer programmer. It is how they are stealing over $100 million a day off investors. see the blog to see the story and the facts listed.
Once we say we need planning, we say the obvious to every common sense American. This leaves out the 'free traders' the US Chamber of Communists, and the rest of the usual suspect whose ideas got us where we are.
Let's not play around here, this is about national survival as much as economics with a totalitarian power hell bent on doing 3 million DDoS attacks daily on the Pentagon and with 160 MIRVed Nukes pointed at as we speak.
That said, as it is, we got some improvement on derivatives but as far as I know a host of other things are still broken, i.e. the CFPA under the Federal Reserve and the entire TBTF, see Michael Collins recent post on nobody likes it but how exactly do you guarantee you have fixed TBTF and not dumped it on the taxpayer?
Buffet claims that the energy patch in Berkshire-Hathaway needs 'derivatives' to function. They are conflating futures used in all commodity trading since the Babylonians with interest rate plays. Typical futures do not have underling real securities or commodities. Derivatives are synthetic, calculated or strips. Example: Treasury Interest rate longs and shorts are derivative. Oil and other commodities, have associated commodities
Why would anyone fight disclosure? If you have big exposure from the unwind of your positions and you screw around with other peoples' money, you need to convince yourself you are a Trustee. Full Disclosure has been around since SEC Acts of 1933 and 1934. We should not be arguing about this. It has been settled law for most of a century.
This is worth fighting to preserve disclosure and accountability. The Meltdown has allowed the inmates to escape from the asylum and blend into the population. The Phil Grahams want to claim that no disclosure is just fine and that we did not need Glass-Stegull. This argument should
be over but it is not.
No nation can afford these levels of interest rates.
The yield on two-year Greek government bonds ... jumped 3 percentage points ... to close at 13.522 per cent.
This is the highest yield on short-dated government debt in the world ...
There are only two options now - default or bailout.
The bailout is all but certain.
I saw a change in accounting rules which moved loans from bonds back on the balance sheets, but those were January, but I cannot find any correlation to the above in terms of percentages.
Nothing would surprise me on this but the jump is so dramatic I would like to find the references where they moved a host of loans on the books.
Also, it's just credit cards, consumer loans, so do you have any intel on why this would explode almost 20% in a month by just accounting and making them put these onto the books?
I did dig around and have yet to find any overall industry wide changes, in March, that account.
What I want to know is how this all will rock the global and U.S. economy? Last glorified collapse was Russia (I guess) and the Asian crisis (Thailand, S. Korea), where the U.S. economy was strong, but now, this isn't the case. Have you seen any analysis on how these hidden sovereign defaults, kind of leaked up with damn thumbing loans and press releases, will hit the global and U.S. economy?
I also just saw a projection that U.S. Q1 2010 GDP will be ~3%. It comes out on Friday, heads up.
Jim Donahue, you are absolutely right about 2008. Check out this website:
http://www.bondsquawk.com/2010/04/a-tale-of-two-markets/
The CDS markets were widening but stocks didn't move as much.
This is a good article for describing all the exemptions in this bill.
Regulation at a federal level works like the police and fire under Boss Tweed. 2 Police Departments, many fire companies for such a small corrupt town like Washington. Here is what the fly on the Oval Office Wall told me.
When 'clients' have a problem, you can go to Boss Tweed in Washington. As JP Morgan told TR, 'Send your man to talk to my man and they will work it out'.Buffet went to Obama first. Then he used his homeboy lapdog Sen. Nelson. Nelson may be doing Obama' bidding.
$63 Bn in forward commodity contracts is speculation, not hedging. Exxon does not own inventories that large. Buffet wants to make the case that legitimate hedging should be allowed. Instead, he make the case for how the whole lot of them need to be treated,
I'll wager this action in Greece was prefaced by movements in the Credit Default Swaps markets. The same thing was happening the market in the summer of 2008. The swaps went higher and higher, then there was talk of illiquidity and bankruptcy etc. Media picks up on things and the stocks went lower. Then there are downgrades and soon - puff, gone.
This drove some of the banks out of business and came close to killing GE Capitol.
Big investors stand to gain here by killing Greece. 'They' know about it and still it happens. One of those investors is no doubt Goldman who still operates with impunity despite supposedly being on the radar. Its all smoke and mirrors.
With this post Consumer loans spike, all time high.
I've yet to track this down due to some sort of mark-to-market FASB accounting change but I personally received "increases to my credit limit" on my cards, at once, no request from me, so frankly I suspect they did increase consumer credit on revolving. It's too huge of a spike to claim it's accounting (but disclaimer, I never could chase it down past the analysis I put up).
bonddad likes to draw fictional lines that are not real regression analysis onto graphs. nuf said. although more later on the "C" demand claim.
I have a few ideas, but I'm not sure how significant they are:
a) $10 Billion a month is saved by people not paying their mortgages. Are these people stupid enough to turn around and go on buying sprees with that money? It's possible.
b) the corporate bond market unfroze last year. In fact, junk bonds are back to 2007 levels, a sure sign that things are out of hand in the bond market again.
c) Tax refunds are 10% higher than last year. That's one way of getting money into consumer hands.
I don't know how many are bust but now that we're hammering for media headlines on Goldman Sachs, the good news is this fictional timebombs, there is a growing movement to plain ban them, along with CDSes.
Hey, when things do not add up from the mathematics, the models and create such a contagion web as these things do, that's my druthers. Ban them. Supposedly (cough, cough, we know this isn't true), the FDA has to approve drugs before they can enter the market to make sure new drugs don't kill people and/or actually work.
We need some sort of product regulator here so these financial companies cannot just create structured financial products and then sell them for billions, which in turn put the global economy at risk, when they do not even make sense from the math!
Notice how that is ignored. The mathematics are fiction on these things. Why is that ignored? Because to understand the models are based on faulty assumptions which are not mathematically valid in this context, one needs advanced probability theory and statistics to see that.
This is where the structured finance, the quantitative analysis community should be shot. I'm sorry, they did not flag this stuff enough to point out the models were mathematically invalid. The computation of a CDO is impossible to verify it's distribution is actually random, there are a host of problems on this front!
Folks, they need some engineers, some mathematics people, some computer engineers and some structured financial people as regulators.
Of course the geeks are always ignored by D.C.
I knew the C Word was coming on this. That's just unreal, 19%, wasn't it 13% or 12% yesterday?
These credit downgrades, while we're railing on the complicity of synthetic CDO fictional ratings, sovereign debt ratings really concern me because it can cause an entire country to implode.
What else do you have on Contagion here, is it a triggering of the yields and then the currency swaps that causes the downgrades of other nations and kind of just spirals into implosion?
In the not to distant future candidates for public office in cities and municipalities will run on the promise to "take the city county muni etc through bankruptcy cleanly" to get out from under the killing debt.
Vote for the Bankruptcy candidate!
I's the Sig Freuds, not the Sig Heils that will get you.
I know this blog shuns Bonddad because of a “slander”. But, sometimes debates get heated and one should not throw out the proverbial “baby with the bath water.” Bonddad and NDD put up some very significant empirical data (‘numbers and charts’). Today for example, they show significant numbers and charts that I would characterize as “the V recovery is in” as indicated by increases in shipments of Crushed Stone, and Lumber; both NY Times and WSJ reporting, “Consumers are spending again”; Economic Cycle Research Institute very bullish; and other positive leading and lagging indicators
My question to midtowng: Given these and many other positive economic numbers the Bonddad blog has been posting for months now, where is the money coming from to support this economic activity if not credit?
It's not just Goldman Sachs here, seems we're playing roulette wheel. I mean JP Morgan Chase, BoA, Citigroup are all guilty of similar doings. WaMu (now part of Chase) was beyond belief bad in originating subprime mortgages. All eyes are on Goldman instead of looking at this systemically.
OK.... here goes. Never mind the housing Fraud that Goldman Sachs was involved. Lets talk about the Current Fraud Goldman Sachs is involved in every day the stock market is open. Goldman Sachs has made over $100 million dollars a day stealing off investors and companies using secret codes and software designed by their Russian computer programmer, who by the wy was arrested by the FBI on July 3rd, 2009, yet the TV news media has covered up this story.
also, TV media, the Big three ( CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox business news ) have all been involved in the cover up of the Goldman Sachs scandals. Another Russian connection is when Goldman Sachs board of Directors secretly meet up with Hank Paulson in June 2008, just months before the financial crisis blew up. Where was this reported on TV.
Why has the TV's big three not connected the ties between Goldman Sachs and these Russian meetings and the Russian computer programmer. It is how they are stealing over $100 million a day off investors. see the blog to see the story and the facts listed.
www.SiriusNews.com/blog
Richard Keane
Once we say we need planning, we say the obvious to every common sense American. This leaves out the 'free traders' the US Chamber of Communists, and the rest of the usual suspect whose ideas got us where we are.
Let's not play around here, this is about national survival as much as economics with a totalitarian power hell bent on doing 3 million DDoS attacks daily on the Pentagon and with 160 MIRVed Nukes pointed at as we speak.
That said, as it is, we got some improvement on derivatives but as far as I know a host of other things are still broken, i.e. the CFPA under the Federal Reserve and the entire TBTF, see Michael Collins recent post on nobody likes it but how exactly do you guarantee you have fixed TBTF and not dumped it on the taxpayer?
Buffet claims that the energy patch in Berkshire-Hathaway needs 'derivatives' to function. They are conflating futures used in all commodity trading since the Babylonians with interest rate plays. Typical futures do not have underling real securities or commodities. Derivatives are synthetic, calculated or strips. Example: Treasury Interest rate longs and shorts are derivative. Oil and other commodities, have associated commodities
Why would anyone fight disclosure? If you have big exposure from the unwind of your positions and you screw around with other peoples' money, you need to convince yourself you are a Trustee. Full Disclosure has been around since SEC Acts of 1933 and 1934. We should not be arguing about this. It has been settled law for most of a century.
This is worth fighting to preserve disclosure and accountability. The Meltdown has allowed the inmates to escape from the asylum and blend into the population. The Phil Grahams want to claim that no disclosure is just fine and that we did not need Glass-Stegull. This argument should
be over but it is not.
No nation can afford these levels of interest rates.
There are only two options now - default or bailout.
The bailout is all but certain.
I saw a change in accounting rules which moved loans from bonds back on the balance sheets, but those were January, but I cannot find any correlation to the above in terms of percentages.
Nothing would surprise me on this but the jump is so dramatic I would like to find the references where they moved a host of loans on the books.
Also, it's just credit cards, consumer loans, so do you have any intel on why this would explode almost 20% in a month by just accounting and making them put these onto the books?
I did dig around and have yet to find any overall industry wide changes, in March, that account.
There was a change of accounting rules. Actual lending fell.
What I want to know is how this all will rock the global and U.S. economy? Last glorified collapse was Russia (I guess) and the Asian crisis (Thailand, S. Korea), where the U.S. economy was strong, but now, this isn't the case. Have you seen any analysis on how these hidden sovereign defaults, kind of leaked up with damn thumbing loans and press releases, will hit the global and U.S. economy?
I also just saw a projection that U.S. Q1 2010 GDP will be ~3%. It comes out on Friday, heads up.
Pages