In referring back to some notes the other night, I noticed I had copied that most appropriate term of derision from an FDR speech -- although not the one below, it is close enough.
This is just another game by the government to control what we see just like inflation.
People who run out of unemployment - magically stop looking because according to the government once they stop paying your benefits you no longer need money and if you were never eligible in the first place by their standards - you can NEVER be unemployed in the first place.
The only thing keeping this from being the great depression all over again is the safety valve programs such as welfare and section 8 food stamps etc. Those programs also keep a huge tax overhead in place that is mandated and can't be removed. It keeps the government from using tax cuts or useful levels of targeted stimulus spending also since we don't have the money to spare. This makes the case for long term stagnation and recession much more possible. Just my unqualified opinion.
There were actually several Reuters articles on this today. Several official "reassuring" statements were made by the G7 this weekend regarding Portugal, Greece and Spain and the effects on the Euro.
If I have time tomorrow, I will pull them together. I can relay the reporting. I will leave the hardcore analysis to midtowng. ;)
What is interesting about the default rate quoted in the article, and the data used was from the FHA Outlook Report. The 90 day delinquency rate reported on the FHA Outlook report differs from HUD Neighborhood Watch data which shows the 90 day delinquency rate was 9.76%. The FHA Monthly Report to the Commissioner shows the December 90 day delinquency rate as 9.12%. While the delinquency rates are similar on the FHA Outlook and Monthly Report to the FHA Commissioner show a different number for outstanding insurance in force. The FO report shows 5,815,006 insurance endorsements in force, and the MRTFHAC shows 5,832,024. The FHA servicing report from HUD Neighborhood Watch only shows 5,732,739 active insurance endorsements. According to HUD Neighborhood Watch data, there were 558,672 endorsements that were at least 90 days delinquent in December. This compares to 531,671 endorsements that were 90 days + late in the December 2009 FHA Outlook and Monthly Report to the FHA Commissioner.
Its interesting to note that the HUD Neighborhood Watch data shows a total of 1,298,739 endorsements that are either delinquent or in default. That is 22.69% of active endorsements reported on HUD Neighborhood Watch. HUD Neighborhood Watch also tracks 30 and 60 day endorsements, and in looking at the increase in 90 day delinquencies compared with the somewhat stability of the 30 and 60 day delinquencies, the number of 90 day delinquencies reported under 90 day delinquencies must be relatively small. The question that the media should be asking is what is the average number of months that loans reported under 90 day + delinquencies are actually delinquent? I would expect an average of at least 6 months.
HUD has not implemented any meaningful reform and have not presented any anticipated changes to the program that would constitute meaningful reform. Instead, HUD has demonstrated a further pattern of deregulation.
The default rate has risen in tandem with increased use of automated underwriting. Anyone who has worked with Automated Underwriting/FHA TOTAL Scorecard knows that it cannot be relied upon to produce investment quality recommendations. In fact, AUS/FHA TOTAL Scorecard is well known as a method of closing loans that are not sustainable or investment quality. Until HUD revises FHA TOTAL Scorecard and substantially reduces debt ratios, the program will continue to deteriorate. FHA TOTAL Scorecard is merely a method of FHA committing fraud via proxy to artificially maintain real estate prices. If debt to income ratios were reduced, the number of new endorsements would drop substantially, and prices along with it.
I actually emailed midtowng, since he has been tracking on this intensely to see if he wanted to do a post on it.
I don't know if he read it but I do know he writes up such detailed posts, I am sure each one takes hours to research and put together....but I don't know if he can get to this.
But you could as well and you're pretty detailed when you have a mind to be! It's clear the stock market was reacting to the possibility of contagion, all originating from Greece and possibly Spain.
But the probability of it...well, I think baseline scenario's post (I read it too) is about the best analysis of recent.
And for those reasons we really salute and applaud you, Mr. Oak (probably even the majority of all those site lurkers, one hopes).
My suggestion was really pure fantasy anyway -- I was just trying to imagine what a combo of the R language with the Processing language could do to conveying stat ideas in an interest-invoking, moving, graphical way.
I've got to spend some quality time on that myself.
Honestly - wasn't Moody's one of the ratings agencies who gave all those securitized piles of mortgages AAA ratings, among many other fraudulent ratings that contributed to this mess?
Shouldn't they be under investigation for fraud and racketeering, instead of making pronouncements about the gov't that's been busy bailing water from the holes they helped poke in the boat?
My God, I just flipped on CBS evening news and they literally put on TATA, the notorious Indian offshore outsourcer, who while operating in the U.S., almost all of their employees are Indians on guest worker Visas, an example of pure labor arbitrage, pure displacement and I personally think should be brought up also on discrimination class action against all U.S. citizen workers....
anywho, they were interviewed as a company "hiring". Surrounded completely by very obvious H-1B and L-1 workers they claimed to be "hiring". Shame they did not mention those were Indians, here to facilitate offshore outsourcing of jobs and displacement of U.S. citizens, in particular I.T. people.
Just incredible. They also had other interviews as if there are jobs out there, completely ignoring the fact this report shows the U.S. just lost another 22,000 jobs. Just to keep up the job creation estimates are 85k to 150k jobs per month.
also don't forget to hit reply when you are replying. (everyone misses that, I know the reply link is too small).
Yes, the problem is this site is heavily cited, read and that is why the quality standards are on maximum high in terms of the posts. I'm sure you can tell the work involved in many of them.
But it's because the site is referenced, well read so the key is to keep the quality up to the highest standards we can type in.
I am working on an upgrade (been working on it forever, keep getting pulled away) and hopefully many of the features will be easier to use but generally, always read the rules, FAQ, user guide on any blog which allows user contributed content.
Comments are way more lax, with the idea for people to use them to have an online conservation, discussion on the topic at hand.
I have the last "hack" on this site half done, half baked which is what I need to do to move it into a module so I can upgrade this site into Drupal 6. (I hacked this code to death originally because I wanted certain functionality that I couldn't find, huge mistake with Drupal core)...
Anywho, let me think about that to do animated graphing. My first thought is hunting around for some sort of easy to use open source flash type deal.
But gee, firstly since no one but me even uses the zoom feature to enlarge images, never mind they are not scaled to the blog....I guess that's the first thing to work on (as well as getting a site look that isn't butt ugly that actually works for all of the features! )
The spammers, attackers, hackers are so intense, with script kiddies to hand jobs....I cannot imagine creating a site which allows executable code. Maybe with JAVA and then some sort of R interfacing type deal which restricts the code to only very certain data types...
but PHP is bad enough plugging up all of the holes and believe me, I've been behind the scenes, plugging and pluggin...
Ya know, that may very well have been me; or at least it's a possibility as I began using that slang several years back.
It could be genetic, though. I am a descendant of the ancient New York City reporter who originally coined the term "shyster" (from the old Dutch-American vernacular for defecator -- used to once describe the workers who went behind the horse-drawn wagons, cleaning up the streets after them [pre-automobile days]) to describe the corrupt politicians in NYC's government.
Later, it began to be used to describe attorneys (as most politicians also read the law in those days).
...I was just fantasizing for a brief moment. The thought of coupling R programming with the Processing language to express the produced graphs in an animated fashion is food for deep thought.
But could only be accomplished in a completely dedicated site.
Firstly, Ray, you cannot reprint copyrighted content in it's entirety. Secondly, please do not write a post asking me to fix a post. You can email me that request but realize these posts are seen by at least 2000 people each day, so when you write a post, it should be for publication and (hopefully) on the level of an article in quality or close to it.
There is also a user guide in the right hand cover plus a FAQ and also an admin forum on how to write posts.
To copy an excerpt from an article one must know how to do copy and paste in addition to the above lessons on how to format a post. Do not post raw links, thank you.
Finally, the middle column has a host of RSS feeds, including Robert Reich's from where this article came from.
I mean frankly this is not that great or an article, we've been saying this for months and months. More Reich is jumping on the outrage me too bandwagon, which is always a good thing in this case, but this isn't new.
The question is more Dodd is retiring so why is he blocking and esp. Shelby now blocking any reforms at all.
Unless Dodd is going to get a nice cosy consulting job after the Senate.
But bottom line is most people know it's Wall Street having corrupted the Senate and that is why all reforms are blocked.
The absurdity of "tea party" vs. "netroots" is the real target of their angst should be those very corporate puppet masters and the corruption at this point.
Ford makes several models in Mexico and as I wrote earlier the total pay and benefit package there is less than $10 an hour.
Who can compete with that here?
Maybe if the 'company store' stock the shelves of your 'company apartment or home' and the company medical plan had no cash fees etc etc.
The reality is that without tariffs all high paying 'skilled' manufacturing jobs will end up overseas.
There is probably only a single manufacturer in the whole country who is really holding its own and even they are doing 'some' outsourcing - Intel.
Financial, education healthcare along with utility costs are rising at the same pace as actual inflation while the rest here is tied to Mexican and Chinese labor costs to some extent.
This model is unsustainable. Mexicans and Chinese laborors cannot afford to live here and buy Iphones etc.
Now most of this I do not believe is completely her fault and I also believe she gets screwed not only by the Federal as well as the corporations...
but what about this question: How many guest workers are displacing techies in Michigan? Are they offshore outsourcing state jobs? Are they enabling offshore outsourcing or body shops to displace workers?
I think that would tell a better picture on Granholm.
I cannot enable anything that creates an executable along with the ability to input whatever code you wish...
I think once this is mentioned you know why!
But I am relying way to heavily on the Fed for graphs and wondering what kind of stuff I can put on the site to enable fast graphing that is original as well as fast tables/stats.
I do have a primitive graphing ability on the site but the Fed database is so cool, very easy to use.
But like today, they don't have the stats I want to show...so here I am.
I was plain going to run a few Matlab scripts on some of these revisions and export the images, but obviously, that isn't exactly an easy tool for economists, never mind lay folk who want a picture of their data!
Since taking office in 2003, Granholm has created 163,300 positions, her office says. She expects that a recent infusion of more than $1 billion from the Obama administration aimed at nurturing car battery and electric-vehicle projects will generate 40,000 more positions by 2020. In the past decade, however, as the auto industry has grown smaller, Michigan has lost 870,000 jobs -- about 632,000 of them during Granholm's tenure. The number is expected to reach 1 million by late next year, the end of her term.
In referring back to some notes the other night, I noticed I had copied that most appropriate term of derision from an FDR speech -- although not the one below, it is close enough.
This is just another game by the government to control what we see just like inflation.
People who run out of unemployment - magically stop looking because according to the government once they stop paying your benefits you no longer need money and if you were never eligible in the first place by their standards - you can NEVER be unemployed in the first place.
The only thing keeping this from being the great depression all over again is the safety valve programs such as welfare and section 8 food stamps etc. Those programs also keep a huge tax overhead in place that is mandated and can't be removed. It keeps the government from using tax cuts or useful levels of targeted stimulus spending also since we don't have the money to spare. This makes the case for long term stagnation and recession much more possible. Just my unqualified opinion.
There were actually several Reuters articles on this today. Several official "reassuring" statements were made by the G7 this weekend regarding Portugal, Greece and Spain and the effects on the Euro.
If I have time tomorrow, I will pull them together. I can relay the reporting. I will leave the hardcore analysis to midtowng. ;)
What is interesting about the default rate quoted in the article, and the data used was from the FHA Outlook Report. The 90 day delinquency rate reported on the FHA Outlook report differs from HUD Neighborhood Watch data which shows the 90 day delinquency rate was 9.76%. The FHA Monthly Report to the Commissioner shows the December 90 day delinquency rate as 9.12%. While the delinquency rates are similar on the FHA Outlook and Monthly Report to the FHA Commissioner show a different number for outstanding insurance in force. The FO report shows 5,815,006 insurance endorsements in force, and the MRTFHAC shows 5,832,024. The FHA servicing report from HUD Neighborhood Watch only shows 5,732,739 active insurance endorsements. According to HUD Neighborhood Watch data, there were 558,672 endorsements that were at least 90 days delinquent in December. This compares to 531,671 endorsements that were 90 days + late in the December 2009 FHA Outlook and Monthly Report to the FHA Commissioner.
Its interesting to note that the HUD Neighborhood Watch data shows a total of 1,298,739 endorsements that are either delinquent or in default. That is 22.69% of active endorsements reported on HUD Neighborhood Watch. HUD Neighborhood Watch also tracks 30 and 60 day endorsements, and in looking at the increase in 90 day delinquencies compared with the somewhat stability of the 30 and 60 day delinquencies, the number of 90 day delinquencies reported under 90 day delinquencies must be relatively small. The question that the media should be asking is what is the average number of months that loans reported under 90 day + delinquencies are actually delinquent? I would expect an average of at least 6 months.
HUD has not implemented any meaningful reform and have not presented any anticipated changes to the program that would constitute meaningful reform. Instead, HUD has demonstrated a further pattern of deregulation.
The default rate has risen in tandem with increased use of automated underwriting. Anyone who has worked with Automated Underwriting/FHA TOTAL Scorecard knows that it cannot be relied upon to produce investment quality recommendations. In fact, AUS/FHA TOTAL Scorecard is well known as a method of closing loans that are not sustainable or investment quality. Until HUD revises FHA TOTAL Scorecard and substantially reduces debt ratios, the program will continue to deteriorate. FHA TOTAL Scorecard is merely a method of FHA committing fraud via proxy to artificially maintain real estate prices. If debt to income ratios were reduced, the number of new endorsements would drop substantially, and prices along with it.
I actually emailed midtowng, since he has been tracking on this intensely to see if he wanted to do a post on it.
I don't know if he read it but I do know he writes up such detailed posts, I am sure each one takes hours to research and put together....but I don't know if he can get to this.
But you could as well and you're pretty detailed when you have a mind to be! It's clear the stock market was reacting to the possibility of contagion, all originating from Greece and possibly Spain.
But the probability of it...well, I think baseline scenario's post (I read it too) is about the best analysis of recent.
Has anyone covered the impact of Greece's potential sovereign default, the impact on the Euro, and ricochet effects on the U.S. economy, yet?
The Baseline article (and comments section) is one of the few places I've seen this addressed.
Is Tim Geithner Paying Attention To the Global Economy?
Moody's - credible or not - may be accurate this time.
And for those reasons we really salute and applaud you, Mr. Oak (probably even the majority of all those site lurkers, one hopes).
My suggestion was really pure fantasy anyway -- I was just trying to imagine what a combo of the R language with the Processing language could do to conveying stat ideas in an interest-invoking, moving, graphical way.
I've got to spend some quality time on that myself.
Thanks again, R.O.
Honestly - wasn't Moody's one of the ratings agencies who gave all those securitized piles of mortgages AAA ratings, among many other fraudulent ratings that contributed to this mess?
Shouldn't they be under investigation for fraud and racketeering, instead of making pronouncements about the gov't that's been busy bailing water from the holes they helped poke in the boat?
Sigh.
My God, I just flipped on CBS evening news and they literally put on TATA, the notorious Indian offshore outsourcer, who while operating in the U.S., almost all of their employees are Indians on guest worker Visas, an example of pure labor arbitrage, pure displacement and I personally think should be brought up also on discrimination class action against all U.S. citizen workers....
anywho, they were interviewed as a company "hiring". Surrounded completely by very obvious H-1B and L-1 workers they claimed to be "hiring". Shame they did not mention those were Indians, here to facilitate offshore outsourcing of jobs and displacement of U.S. citizens, in particular I.T. people.
Just incredible. They also had other interviews as if there are jobs out there, completely ignoring the fact this report shows the U.S. just lost another 22,000 jobs. Just to keep up the job creation estimates are 85k to 150k jobs per month.
also don't forget to hit reply when you are replying. (everyone misses that, I know the reply link is too small).
Yes, the problem is this site is heavily cited, read and that is why the quality standards are on maximum high in terms of the posts. I'm sure you can tell the work involved in many of them.
But it's because the site is referenced, well read so the key is to keep the quality up to the highest standards we can type in.
I am working on an upgrade (been working on it forever, keep getting pulled away) and hopefully many of the features will be easier to use but generally, always read the rules, FAQ, user guide on any blog which allows user contributed content.
Comments are way more lax, with the idea for people to use them to have an online conservation, discussion on the topic at hand.
I have the last "hack" on this site half done, half baked which is what I need to do to move it into a module so I can upgrade this site into Drupal 6. (I hacked this code to death originally because I wanted certain functionality that I couldn't find, huge mistake with Drupal core)...
Anywho, let me think about that to do animated graphing. My first thought is hunting around for some sort of easy to use open source flash type deal.
But gee, firstly since no one but me even uses the zoom feature to enlarge images, never mind they are not scaled to the blog....I guess that's the first thing to work on (as well as getting a site look that isn't butt ugly that actually works for all of the features! )
The spammers, attackers, hackers are so intense, with script kiddies to hand jobs....I cannot imagine creating a site which allows executable code. Maybe with JAVA and then some sort of R interfacing type deal which restricts the code to only very certain data types...
but PHP is bad enough plugging up all of the holes and believe me, I've been behind the scenes, plugging and pluggin...
;)
Ya know, that may very well have been me; or at least it's a possibility as I began using that slang several years back.
It could be genetic, though. I am a descendant of the ancient New York City reporter who originally coined the term "shyster" (from the old Dutch-American vernacular for defecator -- used to once describe the workers who went behind the horse-drawn wagons, cleaning up the streets after them [pre-automobile days]) to describe the corrupt politicians in NYC's government.
Later, it began to be used to describe attorneys (as most politicians also read the law in those days).
....about procedures here.
...I was just fantasizing for a brief moment. The thought of coupling R programming with the Processing language to express the produced graphs in an animated fashion is food for deep thought.
But could only be accomplished in a completely dedicated site.
Gotta think about that though...
Firstly, Ray, you cannot reprint copyrighted content in it's entirety. Secondly, please do not write a post asking me to fix a post. You can email me that request but realize these posts are seen by at least 2000 people each day, so when you write a post, it should be for publication and (hopefully) on the level of an article in quality or close to it.
There is also a user guide in the right hand cover plus a FAQ and also an admin forum on how to write posts.
To copy an excerpt from an article one must know how to do copy and paste in addition to the above lessons on how to format a post. Do not post raw links, thank you.
Finally, the middle column has a host of RSS feeds, including Robert Reich's from where this article came from.
I mean frankly this is not that great or an article, we've been saying this for months and months. More Reich is jumping on the outrage me too bandwagon, which is always a good thing in this case, but this isn't new.
The question is more Dodd is retiring so why is he blocking and esp. Shelby now blocking any reforms at all.
Unless Dodd is going to get a nice cosy consulting job after the Senate.
But bottom line is most people know it's Wall Street having corrupted the Senate and that is why all reforms are blocked.
The absurdity of "tea party" vs. "netroots" is the real target of their angst should be those very corporate puppet masters and the corruption at this point.
I mean the Senate might as well be dissolved because they are so corrupt and it's just the place where reform goes to die.
I like "Banksters", whoever coined that one deserves a gold star.
Ford makes several models in Mexico and as I wrote earlier the total pay and benefit package there is less than $10 an hour.
Who can compete with that here?
Maybe if the 'company store' stock the shelves of your 'company apartment or home' and the company medical plan had no cash fees etc etc.
The reality is that without tariffs all high paying 'skilled' manufacturing jobs will end up overseas.
There is probably only a single manufacturer in the whole country who is really holding its own and even they are doing 'some' outsourcing - Intel.
Financial, education healthcare along with utility costs are rising at the same pace as actual inflation while the rest here is tied to Mexican and Chinese labor costs to some extent.
This model is unsustainable. Mexicans and Chinese laborors cannot afford to live here and buy Iphones etc.
Now most of this I do not believe is completely her fault and I also believe she gets screwed not only by the Federal as well as the corporations...
but what about this question: How many guest workers are displacing techies in Michigan? Are they offshore outsourcing state jobs? Are they enabling offshore outsourcing or body shops to displace workers?
I think that would tell a better picture on Granholm.
I cannot enable anything that creates an executable along with the ability to input whatever code you wish...
I think once this is mentioned you know why!
But I am relying way to heavily on the Fed for graphs and wondering what kind of stuff I can put on the site to enable fast graphing that is original as well as fast tables/stats.
I do have a primitive graphing ability on the site but the Fed database is so cool, very easy to use.
But like today, they don't have the stats I want to show...so here I am.
I was plain going to run a few Matlab scripts on some of these revisions and export the images, but obviously, that isn't exactly an easy tool for economists, never mind lay folk who want a picture of their data!
Link http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100503870.html
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