Venezuela has a growing economy and a stable banking system. Their unemployment rate is 2% lower than ours. So why are they listed as #1?
Argentina has a current account surplus and large current account reserves. So why are they #3?
And finally, where is Britain? Why aren't they on this list? In fact, why are they still listed as AAA?
I disagree with your notion that making an economic blog “as good as we can make it” entails dehumanizing the discussion i.e. only talking about numbers. The economy is the product of human influences and decisions. Not to understand the character of the people who influence and make the decisions is to not understand the economy. This is not to say that ad hominem personal attacks are should be condoned.
This week I listened to Tim Geithener testify before the TARP oversight committee. This is the second time I have listen to him testify. Last was the House Banking Comm. I was shocked at his arrogance and indeed disrespectful tone then. But, that was nothing compared to the way he talked to Elizabeth Warren. For example, she said: “ I don’t understand why money is not getting to small banks.” His reply: “It’s really not all that complicated.” How condescending can you be to a person of her stature and responsibility?
Interestingly, last week she made the same point on CNBS and the interviewer suggested that she should be on an MSNBC show. I wonder if there is some sexism going on here. Intellectually she is a giant. How can you explain such disrespect? But, more to my point, the disrespect cannot be ignored if one is going to EXPLAIN the economy not just DESCRIBE it. Explanation, which is the essence of science, cannot be achieved without the personality variable factored in.
Today Mish called Geithener arrogant and ignorant. It is an important fact to be put into the economic discussion. It is important that we understand the personalities of economics, if you are going to understand and thereby change the economy. Similarly, Bonddad. Attention should be called to him because he has influence and he illustrates a category of economic thinkers that have to be addressed.
He and NDD have responded to the change in the GDP numbers in my mind pathetically. Nevertheless, to ignore them is to ignore the major ideologically factor governing public opinion and gov’t decisions.
If just-in-time governs inventory decisions (NEW SCHOOL) then how do you explain inventory liquidation? Just-in-time would preclude significant inventory to liquidate.
Thanks, I'm not sure honestly, it doesn't give an actual paper title and it would seem, if one is going to issue a press release, that the date of a paper should be around the same time.
But we can just read them (what a concept!) and see which ones determine what. It appears they are generally researching out the bail outs so it's probably an ongoing research area for them.
Hey, consider creating an account and helping out more. We need all the people we can get to look at the details and do paper dig outs! (thank you).
I was going to do a blog "overview" post on this with a host of other major EIs....graph o rama too later.
but from what I saw it's private investment just plain tanked...and this is super bad....
but on the "cash for clunkers" it doesn't really look like sales were hit too badly once the "clunkers" was done...
I think a lot of that had to do with the severity of the "trough" of Q1,Q2 2009 plus I think people didn't buy cars due to the bankruptcies of what was happening overall in autos.
I mean I know I got a STEAL on a GM because I got a gas guzzler (20 mpg highway) 4x4 right after the oil bubble popped and right as GM was about to declare bankruptcy.
You couldn't give these things away. There was range rovers going for $2500 bucks when they are pretty nice actually.
But it seems like all of that "brand name negative" is gone.
Anywho it's private investment, which is the "Real" economy, which is seriously tanked.
Did you see the tax credits propping up home sales?
Growth was bolstered by consumption gaining 2.9% on the back of autos contributing 0.81 point to growth. That was a direct result of the August "Cash for Clunkers" program that subsidized new auto purchases.
In addition, residential investment added 0.45 point to the growth rate, its first add since 2006. This reflected the first-time homebuyer tax credit of up to $8,000 that brought out buyers as home prices fell.
So that makes 1.26% of the 2.2% GDP was from these government tax credits that contribute to higher consumer debt levels and rob from future sales.
The final number is 2.2%.
The Cash4Klunkers program alone accounted for 1.7% of GDP, or 70% of GDP.
I haven't found the numbers for how much HAMP contributed to the GDP, but I'm willing to bet that the GDP would be negative if it wasn't for government stimulus spending.
1. The government often doesn't grasp the idea of permanent links, so they can break on referencing links and then you cannot find the original data.
2. On many EI reports, they list "current" and so the report and the graphs of that monthly indicator are gone, so you cannot go back and compare what the previous report said. This is especially true on BLS initial weekly claims. Fortunately I had put the actual report on EP and that's how I became aware there was a consistent pattern of revising the previous week's report upward, which always made the current report look like it was trending downward.
3. I personally find these embedded sites for PDFs obnoxious. Firstly they give no link reference, so you have no idea where something came from or if it has been corrected or updated. But worse, PDFs already suck and browsers already have embedded tools for you to view them. All you're doing is adding yet another layer of embedding to a document....and why do that since EP software allows file uploads and linking to those files locally.
4. I try to get original reports in order to review them. It is so often another article, journalist and even blogger will highlight something in a report, but if you go read it yourself, you might find something very different in it. And why not read the original? This is the day of online distribution so while we can overview things, there's no reason EP readers shouldn't be directed to the original if they want to check out the reports directly on their own.
Now this article, by Shahien Nasiripour looks like he did quite a bit of digging to find the difference between types of investors and on first pass read of the actual report, "investor" i.e. bank owned, is buried...
so, linking to journalists who did their homework is worth it, but I still like to show the original.
(Anybody else noticing Shahien Nasiripour has been writing some very good investigative type of articles? I have.)
And I think that's where the disconnect lies. Consumers don't want to borrow because they are already overburdened by debt but lenders don't want to lend either. This is the new normal.
As for inventory liquidations - what if the anticipated inventory bounce not exist because of the use of 'just in time' inventory practices? I think green shoots people are looking at the inventory liquidations and saying wow businesses must rebuild those inventories and when they do watch out - to me that's OLD SCHOOL.
Let's just "skip out" on Bonddad. While he's known to folks who came from DK and also read the HuffPo, in the economics world, where we actually reside, he's not widely read. I know HuffPo has him on there, but frankly I don't get why, except maybe DK legacy. He's busy trying to use the Internets to smear the site, so ya know, at that point I sure wouldn't give him any more "press", even negative.
Let's just get away from that and do our own groove econ thing and keep working to make EP as good as we can make it and not "elite" in the process.
But in terms of the network of econ/financial blogs as well as "main stream" economists, I think we should put the focus (not personal, just on content), on those "green shoots, everything's ok, free markets work and cycles resolve, ain't nothing here structurally happening" folk.
I'm more interested in covering this new revision! I saw this and so glad you caught it because this is major. The advanced was 3.5%, the next revision was 2.8% now we're 2.2%!
That's HUGE in terms of economic forecasts and implies now a host of indicators which heavily weight GDP estimates should be revised!
It's also HUGE because the Q4 GDP consensus is being upped quite a bit and much of that is based on trend lines....and those trend lines are in part based on the previous Q3 GDP (not total, but some).
I hope to dig out a few indicators later and break them down in terms of which have GDP as part of their trends.
THIS IS HUGE! Believe this or not, it helps some to explain why no jobs....the higher the GDP is with no jobs...
in my head, we must then look at phantom GDP, offshore outsourcing to explain the divergence.
I mean this is HUGE and in the MSM, it's buried while "surprising home sales" is the headline...
Jesus! Going from headline buster, the recession is over of 3.5% to now 2.2%, which oh yeah, rah, that's positive, when we know GDP has to be 1%-2% just to maintain some "status quo" due to population growth....
Having shown themselves "too incompetent to succeed," the big banks are being showered with taxpayer $$$. What we need is a remake of banking system back when it was boring but made sense. Of course, the political elites have sold out to the big banksters, and have stacked the deck against ordinary banks.
We now need -- must have -- reform of the system. Cut up all unecessary credit cards and stop paying ururious rates. F*ck FICO scores -- when 80% of the country is not credit-worthy, it will make little difference. What if we had FIDO (Fiduciary Index for Depositary Organizations) scores for banks? With zero for outright gambling and 100 for honest, accountable, and ethical behavior. Let's say we score banks based on FIDO -- usurious = bad, fairness to consumer and depositor = good. We then begin taking our money our of the low FIDO and depositing it into good FIDO banks. Sell good FIDO banks on the principle that they sould offer higher rates on deposits than those offered by low FIDO banksters, and lend out money at reassonable though not ruinous rates to consumers and small businesses in the community. Credit-worthiness judged by prompt payment to high FIDO insitutions, screw the low FIDO banksters. Persuade politicians that we can give them FIDO scores as well -- some of them are outright dogs and need to be replaced. Let's get back to first principles -- bank locally, lend locally, and be ethical to your neighbor. Then maybe the low FIDO pups will try to become high FIDO best-of-breed.
Frank T.
inventory liquidations we are seeing now and may minimize the positive effects of potential restocking. This is just a theory on my part.
I am searching for any research regarding this topic.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
I think you're now the forth on EP to imply little difference between Bush/GOP and Obama/Dems.
I think corporate money, corruption ties, family favors, campaign contributions need to be made a top priority for exposure and reform.
Venezuela has a growing economy and a stable banking system. Their unemployment rate is 2% lower than ours. So why are they listed as #1?
Argentina has a current account surplus and large current account reserves. So why are they #3?
And finally, where is Britain? Why aren't they on this list? In fact, why are they still listed as AAA?
Which means at least people can go to other countries to look for work, whereas it's much tougher for an American to find a job abroad.
What is Lativa's debt ratio?
I disagree with your notion that making an economic blog “as good as we can make it” entails dehumanizing the discussion i.e. only talking about numbers. The economy is the product of human influences and decisions. Not to understand the character of the people who influence and make the decisions is to not understand the economy. This is not to say that ad hominem personal attacks are should be condoned.
This week I listened to Tim Geithener testify before the TARP oversight committee. This is the second time I have listen to him testify. Last was the House Banking Comm. I was shocked at his arrogance and indeed disrespectful tone then. But, that was nothing compared to the way he talked to Elizabeth Warren. For example, she said: “ I don’t understand why money is not getting to small banks.” His reply: “It’s really not all that complicated.” How condescending can you be to a person of her stature and responsibility?
Interestingly, last week she made the same point on CNBS and the interviewer suggested that she should be on an MSNBC show. I wonder if there is some sexism going on here. Intellectually she is a giant. How can you explain such disrespect? But, more to my point, the disrespect cannot be ignored if one is going to EXPLAIN the economy not just DESCRIBE it. Explanation, which is the essence of science, cannot be achieved without the personality variable factored in.
Today Mish called Geithener arrogant and ignorant. It is an important fact to be put into the economic discussion. It is important that we understand the personalities of economics, if you are going to understand and thereby change the economy. Similarly, Bonddad. Attention should be called to him because he has influence and he illustrates a category of economic thinkers that have to be addressed.
He and NDD have responded to the change in the GDP numbers in my mind pathetically. Nevertheless, to ignore them is to ignore the major ideologically factor governing public opinion and gov’t decisions.
It has Greece, Dubai and Romania, although I don't know the debt ratios of every country, seemed worthwhile to look at to me.
If just-in-time governs inventory decisions (NEW SCHOOL) then how do you explain inventory liquidation? Just-in-time would preclude significant inventory to liquidate.
have much relevance to reality.
When failure is rewarded. Shouldn't they be giving Ben a Freedom Award too, or something like that?
Thanks, I'm not sure honestly, it doesn't give an actual paper title and it would seem, if one is going to issue a press release, that the date of a paper should be around the same time.
But we can just read them (what a concept!) and see which ones determine what. It appears they are generally researching out the bail outs so it's probably an ongoing research area for them.
Hey, consider creating an account and helping out more. We need all the people we can get to look at the details and do paper dig outs! (thank you).
I found a 9/14/09 version of a study that can be downloaded here.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1426219
I'm assuming it's the same study.
I was going to do a blog "overview" post on this with a host of other major EIs....graph o rama too later.
but from what I saw it's private investment just plain tanked...and this is super bad....
but on the "cash for clunkers" it doesn't really look like sales were hit too badly once the "clunkers" was done...
I think a lot of that had to do with the severity of the "trough" of Q1,Q2 2009 plus I think people didn't buy cars due to the bankruptcies of what was happening overall in autos.
I mean I know I got a STEAL on a GM because I got a gas guzzler (20 mpg highway) 4x4 right after the oil bubble popped and right as GM was about to declare bankruptcy.
You couldn't give these things away. There was range rovers going for $2500 bucks when they are pretty nice actually.
But it seems like all of that "brand name negative" is gone.
Anywho it's private investment, which is the "Real" economy, which is seriously tanked.
Did you see the tax credits propping up home sales?
I just found this.
So that makes 1.26% of the 2.2% GDP was from these government tax credits that contribute to higher consumer debt levels and rob from future sales.
The final number is 2.2%.
The Cash4Klunkers program alone accounted for 1.7% of GDP, or 70% of GDP.
I haven't found the numbers for how much HAMP contributed to the GDP, but I'm willing to bet that the GDP would be negative if it wasn't for government stimulus spending.
I do that quite often and here are the reasons.
1. The government often doesn't grasp the idea of permanent links, so they can break on referencing links and then you cannot find the original data.
2. On many EI reports, they list "current" and so the report and the graphs of that monthly indicator are gone, so you cannot go back and compare what the previous report said. This is especially true on BLS initial weekly claims. Fortunately I had put the actual report on EP and that's how I became aware there was a consistent pattern of revising the previous week's report upward, which always made the current report look like it was trending downward.
3. I personally find these embedded sites for PDFs obnoxious. Firstly they give no link reference, so you have no idea where something came from or if it has been corrected or updated. But worse, PDFs already suck and browsers already have embedded tools for you to view them. All you're doing is adding yet another layer of embedding to a document....and why do that since EP software allows file uploads and linking to those files locally.
4. I try to get original reports in order to review them. It is so often another article, journalist and even blogger will highlight something in a report, but if you go read it yourself, you might find something very different in it. And why not read the original? This is the day of online distribution so while we can overview things, there's no reason EP readers shouldn't be directed to the original if they want to check out the reports directly on their own.
Now this article, by Shahien Nasiripour looks like he did quite a bit of digging to find the difference between types of investors and on first pass read of the actual report, "investor" i.e. bank owned, is buried...
so, linking to journalists who did their homework is worth it, but I still like to show the original.
(Anybody else noticing Shahien Nasiripour has been writing some very good investigative type of articles? I have.)
And I think that's where the disconnect lies. Consumers don't want to borrow because they are already overburdened by debt but lenders don't want to lend either. This is the new normal.
As for inventory liquidations - what if the anticipated inventory bounce not exist because of the use of 'just in time' inventory practices? I think green shoots people are looking at the inventory liquidations and saying wow businesses must rebuild those inventories and when they do watch out - to me that's OLD SCHOOL.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
If the purpose was to keep people in their homes we would've had debt forgiveness/principal reduction a long time ago.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
Let's just "skip out" on Bonddad. While he's known to folks who came from DK and also read the HuffPo, in the economics world, where we actually reside, he's not widely read. I know HuffPo has him on there, but frankly I don't get why, except maybe DK legacy. He's busy trying to use the Internets to smear the site, so ya know, at that point I sure wouldn't give him any more "press", even negative.
Let's just get away from that and do our own groove econ thing and keep working to make EP as good as we can make it and not "elite" in the process.
But in terms of the network of econ/financial blogs as well as "main stream" economists, I think we should put the focus (not personal, just on content), on those "green shoots, everything's ok, free markets work and cycles resolve, ain't nothing here structurally happening" folk.
I'm more interested in covering this new revision! I saw this and so glad you caught it because this is major. The advanced was 3.5%, the next revision was 2.8% now we're 2.2%!
That's HUGE in terms of economic forecasts and implies now a host of indicators which heavily weight GDP estimates should be revised!
It's also HUGE because the Q4 GDP consensus is being upped quite a bit and much of that is based on trend lines....and those trend lines are in part based on the previous Q3 GDP (not total, but some).
I hope to dig out a few indicators later and break them down in terms of which have GDP as part of their trends.
THIS IS HUGE! Believe this or not, it helps some to explain why no jobs....the higher the GDP is with no jobs...
in my head, we must then look at phantom GDP, offshore outsourcing to explain the divergence.
I mean this is HUGE and in the MSM, it's buried while "surprising home sales" is the headline...
Jesus! Going from headline buster, the recession is over of 3.5% to now 2.2%, which oh yeah, rah, that's positive, when we know GDP has to be 1%-2% just to maintain some "status quo" due to population growth....
boy.
this study is just for one program, CPP of the many.
But they showed that the success rate was not correlated to the obtainment of support.
I couldn't find this study and I looked so if you see the actual study from these guys, please link/post it.
Be nice to see the results in the flesh so to speak.
Having shown themselves "too incompetent to succeed," the big banks are being showered with taxpayer $$$. What we need is a remake of banking system back when it was boring but made sense. Of course, the political elites have sold out to the big banksters, and have stacked the deck against ordinary banks.
We now need -- must have -- reform of the system. Cut up all unecessary credit cards and stop paying ururious rates. F*ck FICO scores -- when 80% of the country is not credit-worthy, it will make little difference. What if we had FIDO (Fiduciary Index for Depositary Organizations) scores for banks? With zero for outright gambling and 100 for honest, accountable, and ethical behavior. Let's say we score banks based on FIDO -- usurious = bad, fairness to consumer and depositor = good. We then begin taking our money our of the low FIDO and depositing it into good FIDO banks. Sell good FIDO banks on the principle that they sould offer higher rates on deposits than those offered by low FIDO banksters, and lend out money at reassonable though not ruinous rates to consumers and small businesses in the community. Credit-worthiness judged by prompt payment to high FIDO insitutions, screw the low FIDO banksters. Persuade politicians that we can give them FIDO scores as well -- some of them are outright dogs and need to be replaced. Let's get back to first principles -- bank locally, lend locally, and be ethical to your neighbor. Then maybe the low FIDO pups will try to become high FIDO best-of-breed.
Frank T.
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