I personally think we should grant those who abide by the law and are contributing in some way, a chance through amnesty. There is no political will nor even the logistics to forcibly remove 20+ million illegal immigrants. And most work hard, integrate and culturally contribute. Sure they may not pick up the language, but their kids do. Do they take social services? Of course, they're economically on the bottom rung and in an exploitable position. Like midtowng said, we need to certify them so they can get the protections they rightly deserve. In a way, it would backfire on those employers if you think about it. Lastly, I think if there is a national health coverage system, they need to be included. To not do so would encourage a public health disaster.
That isn't to say we can't enforce our borders better, but that we must realize the situation at hand. What you have is the result of decades of irresponsible action/neglect on the part of government to control the borders. I fear, that ultimately, we may need a national identification card/network that can't be easily hacked or forged. Wow, even I get the chills thinking about that. But the current system with social security as tax ID isn't working either.
Of course all this is moot if the economy really tanks. Do not be surprised to see these "illegals" start heading home. You're already seeing news stories about this. No jobs means no jobs. We have a relatively high cost of living here, compared for example to Mexico. Each day that immigrant is looking for a job and not getting it is costing him.
If the fiscal situation deteriorates further, eventually you'll see more draconian policies put forth regarding welfare. It will be the male population of the illegal immigrant population that will be most adversely affected by this. Female mothers will not because of the children.
One other possible outcome could be intranational migration. California is a state that has a relatively high cost of doing business, business there could go to other states. One could see the migration of these immigrants to where the businesses go. But then they will be competing with the supply pool of labor (including illegal immigrants) in that new local. Eventually they will be discouraged and/or out of funds to survive much longer.
Politically, there is schlorosis. Economic wise, you have businesses who wish to stay in the US leaving for places like Nevada. And those that do stay, are transforming their business to make do with a smaller workforce. Of course the biggest problem is the government's finances. They need to revisit that tax raising issue that they instituted over 20 years ago. Californians want everything, but don't have the tax revenue to pay for it. If they were a sovereign nation (that still had that prop tax thing), you'd see them print money in an attempt to solve their problem like the Italians used to do.
The last thing that is needed is for the site to point fingers and call one a racist. Just opposing illegal immigration does not make one a racist in any one. That doesn't mean there aren't racists who oppose such a violation of the law (And that is where the term "illegal" comes from, breaking US border law).
It's easy to tag someone something. We get caught up in the situation. I, for example, oppose the transaction tax, yet I'm told I hate all taxes. That isn't true, and honestly we should be above such things. So Robert is right, let's try and keep things civil.
Midtowng is right, the name "Populist" is part of the site's name. It's economics through a populist's perspective. There is nothing sterile nor purely economic in that term. Escaping politics from populism is nigh impossible.
Indeed, if I may play devil's advocate here, there has been politics influenced into the subject at had. The fact that economic think tanks belonging to a labor union could easily be construed as such. Are you saying there is no bias from the AFL-CIO or professors who are hold similar views? One could ask why not also utilize data from economic think tanks that are against the labor unions? As Devil's Advocate, I'm just saying.
The closest one has to "pure data" mainly (though not always) stem from the government, and even here that can be altered at times to suit political needs. Witness how unemployment is factored. As well, there are other sites that report other statistics that is not collected by the government. I guess the question begs, what kind of site does EP wish to be?
Populism is being used by both progressives and conservative folk. By having that title, you will, whether you intended or not, to invite politics. It's history is more political than economic and once more it has been used by the left and right. That isn't to say there isn't one of the latter, there is.
I'm not saying turn this site into DailyKos or what have you. Just that if the Economic Populist is going to be a site that provides stats and attempts to interpret them, through a populist lens, then you won't escape politics.
The money is spend inside the USA. Goods and services and payroll and taxes. Illegals or not, there is always the low end of the labor pool that will need these services.
What's the price of grape jelly? Take out the low end labor and recaculate the price.
That's not what worries me. California's economy falling into the Pacific Ocean does.
If Greece defaults what's our exposure? I don't hear Golum-Sacks screaming for more just in case they didn't have that hedged or counter partied. So, my best guess is pretty low.
If the wonderful left coast hits the skids? Then what? It will make Greece look like a Sunday walk in the park.
I don't think we have enough troops stationed in California to keep the peace when the debit cards for food stamps stop being accecpted. How many cops are going to come to work when they find themselves on a rotating furlough list to stop the looters?
For those worried about racism, start counting gangs in LA. That's what the Arnold sweats about.
That's what worries me.
See the upper right hand corner? Create an account and login. That way you avoid captcha and you have some sort of id name so people can respond and it's easier to have a conversation.
All folk who are writing a lot of anonymous comments, please consider this....
it's SO much better, the site is and usable if you create accounts.
For the most part, your analysis on inventories is correct and good ....
that's the theory, they wipe out inventories and they have to hire to rebuild them.
I do believe manufacturing keeps some inventory around as wholesale.
On DK and other sites that's what goes on, i.e. if you are not for "comprehensive immigration reform" as written you are....a racist xenophobe....if one is not for unlimited migration in the U.S., regardless of what else is happening....you are...
a racist xenophobe. It doesn't matter what's going on in U.S. labor markets, any mention on labor econ realities....
you are a racist xenophobe.
This same mind numbing information void mantra is front paged all over the place and you cannot even analyze a bill without attack.
It's a mind numbing mantra that's used to shut down any analysis, discussion or labor econ realities assuredly, on this topic.
Ok, so you weren't going there, good and I apologize.
That's the #1 thing I want to keep off of the site, that name calling and "troll hunting" misinformation campaign filled with fictional stats and well, they are really akin to lobbyists' papers...claims, both sides.
Same as I don't want lobbyists "white sheets" or think tank stooges papers on the site.
Maybe you misunderstand what I'm after, because I am aware this is just an agenda, these groups are inane in their name calling.....it's that tactic specifically.
I just reread some of your last post and noticed you're talking about your own personal history and some sort of reactionary something to some sort of family background.
Actually you really haven't read what I've written. It appears that what you read was:
Everyone that oppose unlimited immigration are racists.
Nowhere did I say that. Nowhere did I imply that.
More important, I addressed a number of other aspects involving class that were much more relevant to this blog and closer to my heart. You seemed to have completely missed those points.
I'm not going to rephrase or dumb-down everything. I know you are smart enough to understand what I am saying.
Thank you for the link. However, I must admit it is a little above my pay grade, as they say. I’m not sure I fully understand it. Nevertheless, just to make myself clear: I believer that ‘just-in-time’ is a manufacturing inventory concept, but I don’t think it’s applicable to wholesale and retailing. For example, an automobile assembly plant at one time had to inventory large stocks of parts to supply its assembly lines. With ‘just-in-time’ it is no longer necessary to inventory parts. By definition, they arrive at the assembly plant just in time to go into the assembly line.
However, auto dealerships still have to inventory cars. They cannot get a car just in time to sell it. They need large lots filled with a variety of cars for customers to choose from. Similarly, department stores and other retail outlets and wholesalers who supply retailers.
Thus, the current inventory liquidation phase that is postulate the economy is going though must be wholesale/retail liquidation. Again, manufacturers who are on a just in time system have little or no inventory liquidate.
Thus, regarding inventory rebuilding, again, just in time would not be a relevant concept because it applies to manufacturing and they don’t build inventory. However, if wholesalers/retailers have liquidated their inventories, then it is plausible that they will rebuild in the coming months. Emphasis on plausible! And, how that will affect GDP is questionable as per your link and theory.
More generally, the concept of just in time is one that I think has not been fully explored in terms of the change in world economic systems and ours. Up though about 1975, I believe that vertical integration was thought to be the most efficient organization plan; in part because it was the only way to insure that component parts would be available in time for assembly. Increased efficiency of transpiration systems (e.g. interstate highways, container ships, etc.) and computer information systems made just in time possible and in turn led to the break up of vertically integrated companies and brought on outsourcing and all the economic implications that has.
For example, in the 1960’s Kodak embarked on a massive multi plant-building complex called Elmgrove in a Rochester NY suburb. It was so building and labor intensive that a special expressway exit was built off of the expressway to get into the complex. Today, all those new buildings have been sold off and many older buildings have been torn down. In the Monday morning quarterbacking department, people now say how foolish Kodak was to build all those buildings. Yet, in the 1960s, the concept of vertical integration was still considered efficient organization. Indeed, Kodak was such a successful company because it was vertically integrated. Does anyone think that Henry Ford who practically invented vertical integration was foolish even though Ford today has turned to outsourcing?
This dialogue on ‘name-calling’ dovetails with my dialogue with RO about ‘personalities’ over at “Instapopulist - GDP’s massive downward revision”.
It is interesting because it goes to the heart of the meaning of ‘social’ science. Since the rise of cheap mega computer power that has made enormous amounts of data available instantly and computation and graphics easy, there has been a propensity to make social science into a de facto natural science.
From time to time, as in these two dialogues, the reality that social sconce is not dealing with rocks and other inanimate objects flies into our face. What I and, if I under stand him correctly, midtowng are saying is that you cannot factor out the human factor in economics. If all you do is statistics, then all you will do is describe. So-called inferential statistics is nothing more than predicating future descriptions based on passed descriptions.
Economics is essential a behavior science. Economic statistics describe aggregate human behavior. Accordingly, if one wants to transcend descriptions, both observed and predicted, then one must introduce behavior (psychological) variables. In part this is difficult because of the inherit complexity of human behavior. Also, in part, language used to describe human behavior is equivocal and often laced with pejorative connotations; e.g. ‘illegal aliens.’
I certainly agree with RO's efforts to eliminate what he calls ‘slander’ and ‘racist’ discussion. But, I THINK he may have a tendency to ‘throw out the baby with the bath water’, so to speak. Emphasis on ‘think’! This is a complex problem and commenting in a blog does not lend itself to perfect expression of complex ideas.
Nevertheless, in general, I would say that any blog that’s limited to statistics will make for ‘an interesting read’, as they say in journalism, but will not rise to the scientific level of causality and social change. Any causal hypotheses that lacks behavioral variables is meaningless in social (behavior) science e.g. economics.
Having said that, my compliments and appreciation to Robert Oak: I know of no other place on the net or in print for that matter were this type of epistemological discussion can take place.
I think that's the difference. One can look at policy, at the number themselves, at the EIs themselves, at the legislation itself to find the corruption and flaws.
So, the point is to look at the data and accurate get a grip on it.....then you can determine, for example, that Geithner gave away the store to AIG for no legitimate reason.
Also, I'm referring to certain bloggers, there is too much huge economic insanity going on that is squeezing the U.S. middle class to get into all of that type of rot.
Don't worry, you're fine, although I do believe many focus on personalities because it's more difficult to get a handle on EIs, read legislation, read policy, understand the implications, but it's only by digging in that deep, at least in my opinion, does one stand a prayer's chance of stopping it.
I just reread some of your last post and noticed you're talking about your own personal history and some sort of reactionary something to some sort of family background.
So, here's mine. Originally I believed one should have unlimited migration and didn't see the big deal....until two things happened...I was sitting in corporate board meetings with an agenda to labor arbitrage workers and yes, through immigration, as well as outsourcing....as which I point, even then I kind of didn't really clue in...I still didn't really get it and just assumed these would be additional personnel....they didn't seriously intend on firing their over 40 PhDs with those kind of patent portfolios and offshore outsource their research...no way! (oops, wrong!)
Then, in my professional area, this executive agenda started to become a pattern....corporation after corporation I started seeing and hearing this was a plan.... and I kind of said....hmmmmmm.....and started really studying....and then formal study, labor econ study....and realized what a variable labor supply actually is.
which is one of the points of EP, it's not to deny statistical reality because someone wishes it so.
So, the point is to focus in on these economic realities and simply not go by something one's parents did or some predefined belief one has.
So often deep analysis will challenge beliefs, even in scientific beliefs one can be challenged and must keep an open mind.
I simply am saying no, because someone doesn't subscribe, conclude or want or whatever some unlimited migration/immigration policy....one cannot name call them racist xenophobes. That's it and I'm pointing it out because this is a notorious political tool to advance a special interest agenda and on EP we don't do that name calling crap to people additionally or deny economic realities. We're not DK.
Claiming all are racist is not valid, I'm sorry and I personally work in an international community so I know it's just not valid.
So, just because your parents were racists (or determined to be in your mind) does not mean all folk who do not agree with unlimited migration/immigration are therefore racists.
See the logic flaw in that conclusion? I hope so.
Last I checked labor economists or those starting their first course study, didn't suddenly look at a few equations and graphs and somehow a magic spell was cast upon them and they grew white sheets with the eyes cut out and burning white crosses grew out of their asses.
The purpose of EP is respected and not to be challenged. That was not my intention. Rather, mine was about the nature of economics. If the sole or primary purpose is to DESCRIBE than the numbers are the only thing that is to be considered. Mine has nothing to do with slander. Where did that come from?
However, if there is any intention to EXPLAIN and indeed affect CHANGE in economic policy, and my impression is that explanation and change are objectives (else what is the meaning of Populist), then I posit that explanation is not complete without reference to personality. Geithner, for example, is making policy decisions. In part they can be explained by economic variables, but I believe that his ego, career objective, personal wealth, the egos, career objectives and wealth of the clique that put him in office can not be ignored. They are explanatory variables. Bonddad and NDD are carrying Geithner’s water ( promoting his policies) so they to are part of the EXPLANATION of what policies are put in place.
Again, it is not my intention to convince you to change the policy of your blog. Only to posit that if the objective of your blog is to EXPLAIN and CHANGE economic policy than you will not succeed with out personality variables. That is an epistemolgical proposition. For example, your often stated concern about WTO and other foreign trade policies that you think put the US at a disadvantage. You can describe the inequities statistically on ad infinitum but you will not explain why the polices exist until you consider who is promoting them in government and opinion makers supporting them. If you do not explain only complain, then there will not be a change.
You ask: “Why bother reading those who are consistently incorrect and playing "graph o rama cherry pick"? So we should ignore Geithner and the FED chair because they are incorrect? We should ignore public opinion makers because they are in correct? If the only thing you are interested in is being right then I agree. But, to understand the economy is to understand why people and the policies they promote are wrong. Anyone who considers that public opinion is a variable that affects government policy has to care about those who are both wrong and effective. If a blog is affecting public opinion or is representative of public opinion then it cannot be ignored. I think Rush Limbaugh is a fool. But, I listen to him every chance I get because he has enormous affect on public opinion and in turn public policy – including economic policy.
But, again it is not my intention to affect EP and I will not place comments inconsistent with its policy.
Best
We're not going there on this name calling scream fest. That's your opinion, but I'm sorry, it's not labor econ fact.
First of all, I haven't done any name calling or screaming, nor have I gotten anywhere close to it. So I take offense that you are implying that I am. I've been very measured with my responses. It was you that brought up immigration in this thread, not I.
But the big problem I see here is a more basic one - you are trying to take the politics out of the economics.
I understand that this blog is about economics, but it is also populist.
is a type of political-social thought which juxtaposes "the people" with "the elites"
Immigration is as much a political subject as an economic on. Racism is a political subject. You can't talk about immigration without addressing the subject of racism. At least you can't talk about it honestly.
Today's school of economics has the same problem. Economics today is taught like a math class. The whole idea of identifying and treating the productive part of the economy separate from the non-productive part of the economy is gone. Now all economic activity is treated the same, unlike how classical economics was once taught.
You can't be progressive in a math class. You can be progressive in an economics class, but you have to take politics into account.
I don't write all those labor history essays just because I enjoy history. I write them because there are lessons to be applied today.
The labor movement peaked and went into terminal decline when it decided that there was no room for a political movement.
I'm not interested in writing on a sterile economics blog. I want one with a progressive agenda.
Jesus, when I saw "Grover Norquist" I thought the site had been spammed! I should have put him in my "top 10 tar and feather" candidates.
So.....then I go reading the letter and OH Shit! Considering Fannie/Freddie are now asking for $800 billion bucks....this ain't too good!
I guess I'll say this as well, ya know if something is accurate, well done, cited....and economics related, esp. on the middle class screw job...
feel free to write about it, link and so on...yet another reason to dig in deep and stay all econ 24/7 and stay away from partisanship and rhetoric and don't worry what the source is....well cited, accurate, good investigative stuff is....well cited, accurate, good investigative stuff.
I knew that the Freddie/Fannie debacle was deep in the Dem camp but none of this I've ever heard of.
I mean this. Not on EP. We're not going there on this name calling scream fest. That's your opinion, but I'm sorry, it's not labor econ fact.
Back to this idea that somehow anyone who doesn't believe in unlimited global migration is somehow a racist xenophobe (and yes, next comment implying this will be deleted!!)
The reason it won't work is because firstly, corporations control labor markets, secondly the world is a group of nation-states, each with it's own labor markets and laws and various immigration restrictions. 3rdly, each nation-state has a differing PPP. Some nation-states have huge labor forces and not a lot of domestic development. You simply cannot say the United States, with a labor force of about 150 million, should be the jobs market for a labor force of 1.8 billion and most of those are coming from nation-states with very low GDP/PPP.
Just look at the reunification of Germany. E. Germany had a much lower PPP and a much higher unemployment rate. What happened was it caused massive unemployment in both countries, lowered labor securities, reduced labor power, affected Germany's overall PPP/GDP for a good 10 years until better equilibrium could be achieved. They still have problems from this.
Same reason EU took so much time homogenizing their member countries so they would not have a sudden labor market flow....and only then did they liberalize their migration laws...and it's only w/in EU member states again for the reasons above and they all have pretty strong labor laws to begin with, very close GDP/PPP (in comparison to 3rd world).
Also, one can end up with forced migration. Now what economic model is this? Slavery.
We already have corporations routinely, just the other day they are recommending further reduction of labor costs to weather the storm due to slow economic growth. i.e. more layoffs, more job losses.
On the flip side to this, almost every other nation-state on Earth put's it's citizens first for jobs. i.e. an American cannot just walk into India, China, Germany, and esp. Mexico and get a job.
So, you are advocating for a massive supply influx and there is not a reciprocal out flux for Americans to escape the resulting race to the bottom on wages. On top of it, that implies Americans, would be forced to reduce their quality of life, standard of living as it would for most of the high PPP nation-states as this "came into equilibrium" (i.e. cheap labor everywhere)
Labor econ is a legitimate economics topic and it's massive because labor supply has a strong effect on an economy. So does population as well as global population.
These are just economic realities....this isn't some grand conspiracy to hate certain sectors of the global population and that's pretty absurd too, since America and Americans means, black, brown, purple, disabled, women, older, younger, etc. with all sorts of ethic roots.
So, while it seems grand the free movement of people's is precisely why MNCs want it, because they will control it....and some nation-states with labor oversupply want it....because once again, it helps their GDP by transferring entire market sectors as well as remittances.
Mexico is remittances, India is capturing services, China is capturing manufacturing....
They are not advocating that so people can demand more labor rights, higher wages, of course not. They understand they can manipulate labor supply on steroids with such an agenda.
So, if one wants to do such a thing there are a host of infrastructures that would need to happen first, else you will have a labor supply disaster...
i.e. global union with a lot of power, in every single labor market. Every nation, every single one, would have to have equal social safety nets, labor laws, minimum wage requirements to ensure corporations could not play nation-states against each other to find the cheapest exploitable labor. If one wanted to have a "guaranteed jobs" program (an idea running around) one would have to have this implemented globally, every country, else once again, one would create in one nation-state with limited resources, limited # of jobs that economy could support....and have 1.8 billion people demanding those jobs.
It's just like a Tobin tax. It won't work unless it's global....if one nation only does it...well, the flow just goes elsewhere.
It's like a bunch of pipes....you cannot have "spigot off" around the globe and have "spigot on" in just one nation-state and not expect to have very serious consequences.
Then, firstly racism is just not an strictly econ topic, but even more this is rhetoric SCREAMED continually from special interest groups, so labor econ/migration flows/immigration related topics simply cannot be discussed rationally. It also implies that somehow only America can have that sort of characteristic, which currently and historically isn't valid.
But the biggest reason is the use of this to shut down any objective analysis, discussion, based on sound labor econ.
There are plenty of other sites which will scream this from the rooftops and that's yet another reason to not go there. We are an econ 24/7 site, not a screaming rhetoric devoid of objective, well founded analysis, which demands one at least crack a labor econ text.
that immigration was a big problem. But then I was also raised up around racists, and that niggers were stupid.
It wasn't until I got older that I realized that the two concepts go hand in hand. What I am saying isn't controversial, or even really up for debate: the anti-immigration zealots are almost always racists.
Years after I got out on my own someone made the statement that really stuck with me - how can a person be illegal?
What in the Hell does it mean to say someone is illegal?
As an American we don't really think about it much. But put yourself in the place of trying to emigrate to another country. Let's say, Australia. Well, they probably don't want you, in the same way that we don't want Mexicans. The EXACT same way.
There is also the concept of how capital is free to move, but labor isn't. That's how the multi-national corporations play labor arbitrage against all of us. It's in the best interests of the rich and wealthy to make sure they all of us worker bees stay "illegal" if they should want to stray across a border.
because the claim they add to the economy is not true. What is true when one floods the labor market you will lower wages for natives. That's been shown over and over and over, including the 1800's or just look at the Germany reunification or China, India or any nation which has a sudden influx.
This is labor econ 101, take any text, from Borjas to Samuelson and you will see that the law of supply and demand, all else static holds and it's held throughout history.
If you look at the Miami study, which is an anomaly, what you find is in certain conditions it will appear that way but it's actually other factors. The real estate boom and job boom in the 1980's, believe this or not, was fueled by drug money.
So, no we're not going there on this site, trying to claim that somehow the law of labor economics is false AND trying to claim any discussion of this is racist to obfuscate labor econ.
You know I am aware of union history but you forget the fact that first they had to be exploited and then it took almost 100 years to get somewhere.....and ignoring the fact that (wrongly obviously by the type of restrictions done of course) but they changed immigration in the 1920's which did limit labor supply.
We have on this site, everything from full bore open borders beliefs to full bore "deport 'em all" beliefs....
so there is no way I want these name calling things on the site. It is real, immigration does indeed affect wage levels, labor markets and even EPI, right at the moment is wrestling with these economic realities. As you know EPI is the think tank for the AFL-CIO.
Your comment proposes that nation-states should allow some sort of global input into policy....whereas nation-states are made up of citizens....so you are implying citizens of other nations should determine U.S. policy...
That isn't what I'm saying. Not even close.
I'm saying that immigrants aren't a significant problem, nor are they even the source of what little problem they might be.
You talk about social services they use. Well, they contribute far more than they use. Immigrants don't come to this country to sit on welfare. They come to work. Period. I respect that. And because they are illegal there is no possible way that they can utilize a significant amount of government services.
OTOH, by persecuting them you make it impossible for them to organize into unions. You might not know this, but immigrants from Europe were the most active and vocal unionizing sector back in the 19th Century.
But my largest point, the one you seem to be missing, is that blaming immigrants for our problems has a very, very long history.
Almost every time it was wrong and done on a purely racist level.
Almost every time it was used by the people in power, the ones that caused the misery in society, to divide, distract and exploit the working class.
So when you start echoing the talking points of the powerful, of the exploiters, you should step back and say to yourself, "Who do I sound like?" If you take that second step to think and work out it out for yourself and you still come to the same conclusion, then that's fine. Good for you. But if you don't make that extra effort then you are setting yourself up to be played the fool.
I personally think we should grant those who abide by the law and are contributing in some way, a chance through amnesty. There is no political will nor even the logistics to forcibly remove 20+ million illegal immigrants. And most work hard, integrate and culturally contribute. Sure they may not pick up the language, but their kids do. Do they take social services? Of course, they're economically on the bottom rung and in an exploitable position. Like midtowng said, we need to certify them so they can get the protections they rightly deserve. In a way, it would backfire on those employers if you think about it. Lastly, I think if there is a national health coverage system, they need to be included. To not do so would encourage a public health disaster.
That isn't to say we can't enforce our borders better, but that we must realize the situation at hand. What you have is the result of decades of irresponsible action/neglect on the part of government to control the borders. I fear, that ultimately, we may need a national identification card/network that can't be easily hacked or forged. Wow, even I get the chills thinking about that. But the current system with social security as tax ID isn't working either.
Of course all this is moot if the economy really tanks. Do not be surprised to see these "illegals" start heading home. You're already seeing news stories about this. No jobs means no jobs. We have a relatively high cost of living here, compared for example to Mexico. Each day that immigrant is looking for a job and not getting it is costing him.
If the fiscal situation deteriorates further, eventually you'll see more draconian policies put forth regarding welfare. It will be the male population of the illegal immigrant population that will be most adversely affected by this. Female mothers will not because of the children.
One other possible outcome could be intranational migration. California is a state that has a relatively high cost of doing business, business there could go to other states. One could see the migration of these immigrants to where the businesses go. But then they will be competing with the supply pool of labor (including illegal immigrants) in that new local. Eventually they will be discouraged and/or out of funds to survive much longer.
Politically, there is schlorosis. Economic wise, you have businesses who wish to stay in the US leaving for places like Nevada. And those that do stay, are transforming their business to make do with a smaller workforce. Of course the biggest problem is the government's finances. They need to revisit that tax raising issue that they instituted over 20 years ago. Californians want everything, but don't have the tax revenue to pay for it. If they were a sovereign nation (that still had that prop tax thing), you'd see them print money in an attempt to solve their problem like the Italians used to do.
The last thing that is needed is for the site to point fingers and call one a racist. Just opposing illegal immigration does not make one a racist in any one. That doesn't mean there aren't racists who oppose such a violation of the law (And that is where the term "illegal" comes from, breaking US border law).
It's easy to tag someone something. We get caught up in the situation. I, for example, oppose the transaction tax, yet I'm told I hate all taxes. That isn't true, and honestly we should be above such things. So Robert is right, let's try and keep things civil.
Midtowng is right, the name "Populist" is part of the site's name. It's economics through a populist's perspective. There is nothing sterile nor purely economic in that term. Escaping politics from populism is nigh impossible.
Indeed, if I may play devil's advocate here, there has been politics influenced into the subject at had. The fact that economic think tanks belonging to a labor union could easily be construed as such. Are you saying there is no bias from the AFL-CIO or professors who are hold similar views? One could ask why not also utilize data from economic think tanks that are against the labor unions? As Devil's Advocate, I'm just saying.
The closest one has to "pure data" mainly (though not always) stem from the government, and even here that can be altered at times to suit political needs. Witness how unemployment is factored. As well, there are other sites that report other statistics that is not collected by the government. I guess the question begs, what kind of site does EP wish to be?
Populism is being used by both progressives and conservative folk. By having that title, you will, whether you intended or not, to invite politics. It's history is more political than economic and once more it has been used by the left and right. That isn't to say there isn't one of the latter, there is.
I'm not saying turn this site into DailyKos or what have you. Just that if the Economic Populist is going to be a site that provides stats and attempts to interpret them, through a populist lens, then you won't escape politics.
The money is spend inside the USA. Goods and services and payroll and taxes. Illegals or not, there is always the low end of the labor pool that will need these services.
What's the price of grape jelly? Take out the low end labor and recaculate the price.
That's not what worries me. California's economy falling into the Pacific Ocean does.
If Greece defaults what's our exposure? I don't hear Golum-Sacks screaming for more just in case they didn't have that hedged or counter partied. So, my best guess is pretty low.
If the wonderful left coast hits the skids? Then what? It will make Greece look like a Sunday walk in the park.
I don't think we have enough troops stationed in California to keep the peace when the debit cards for food stamps stop being accecpted. How many cops are going to come to work when they find themselves on a rotating furlough list to stop the looters?
For those worried about racism, start counting gangs in LA. That's what the Arnold sweats about.
That's what worries me.
See the upper right hand corner? Create an account and login. That way you avoid captcha and you have some sort of id name so people can respond and it's easier to have a conversation.
All folk who are writing a lot of anonymous comments, please consider this....
it's SO much better, the site is and usable if you create accounts.
For the most part, your analysis on inventories is correct and good ....
that's the theory, they wipe out inventories and they have to hire to rebuild them.
I do believe manufacturing keeps some inventory around as wholesale.
This is what I want off of this site:
On DK and other sites that's what goes on, i.e. if you are not for "comprehensive immigration reform" as written you are....a racist xenophobe....if one is not for unlimited migration in the U.S., regardless of what else is happening....you are...
a racist xenophobe. It doesn't matter what's going on in U.S. labor markets, any mention on labor econ realities....
you are a racist xenophobe.
This same mind numbing information void mantra is front paged all over the place and you cannot even analyze a bill without attack.
It's a mind numbing mantra that's used to shut down any analysis, discussion or labor econ realities assuredly, on this topic.
Ok, so you weren't going there, good and I apologize.
That's the #1 thing I want to keep off of the site, that name calling and "troll hunting" misinformation campaign filled with fictional stats and well, they are really akin to lobbyists' papers...claims, both sides.
Same as I don't want lobbyists "white sheets" or think tank stooges papers on the site.
Maybe you misunderstand what I'm after, because I am aware this is just an agenda, these groups are inane in their name calling.....it's that tactic specifically.
Actually you really haven't read what I've written. It appears that what you read was:
Everyone that oppose unlimited immigration are racists.
Nowhere did I say that. Nowhere did I imply that.
More important, I addressed a number of other aspects involving class that were much more relevant to this blog and closer to my heart. You seemed to have completely missed those points.
I'm not going to rephrase or dumb-down everything. I know you are smart enough to understand what I am saying.
Happy holidays from the federal government:
Thank you for the link. However, I must admit it is a little above my pay grade, as they say. I’m not sure I fully understand it. Nevertheless, just to make myself clear: I believer that ‘just-in-time’ is a manufacturing inventory concept, but I don’t think it’s applicable to wholesale and retailing. For example, an automobile assembly plant at one time had to inventory large stocks of parts to supply its assembly lines. With ‘just-in-time’ it is no longer necessary to inventory parts. By definition, they arrive at the assembly plant just in time to go into the assembly line.
However, auto dealerships still have to inventory cars. They cannot get a car just in time to sell it. They need large lots filled with a variety of cars for customers to choose from. Similarly, department stores and other retail outlets and wholesalers who supply retailers.
Thus, the current inventory liquidation phase that is postulate the economy is going though must be wholesale/retail liquidation. Again, manufacturers who are on a just in time system have little or no inventory liquidate.
Thus, regarding inventory rebuilding, again, just in time would not be a relevant concept because it applies to manufacturing and they don’t build inventory. However, if wholesalers/retailers have liquidated their inventories, then it is plausible that they will rebuild in the coming months. Emphasis on plausible! And, how that will affect GDP is questionable as per your link and theory.
More generally, the concept of just in time is one that I think has not been fully explored in terms of the change in world economic systems and ours. Up though about 1975, I believe that vertical integration was thought to be the most efficient organization plan; in part because it was the only way to insure that component parts would be available in time for assembly. Increased efficiency of transpiration systems (e.g. interstate highways, container ships, etc.) and computer information systems made just in time possible and in turn led to the break up of vertically integrated companies and brought on outsourcing and all the economic implications that has.
For example, in the 1960’s Kodak embarked on a massive multi plant-building complex called Elmgrove in a Rochester NY suburb. It was so building and labor intensive that a special expressway exit was built off of the expressway to get into the complex. Today, all those new buildings have been sold off and many older buildings have been torn down. In the Monday morning quarterbacking department, people now say how foolish Kodak was to build all those buildings. Yet, in the 1960s, the concept of vertical integration was still considered efficient organization. Indeed, Kodak was such a successful company because it was vertically integrated. Does anyone think that Henry Ford who practically invented vertical integration was foolish even though Ford today has turned to outsourcing?
This dialogue on ‘name-calling’ dovetails with my dialogue with RO about ‘personalities’ over at “Instapopulist - GDP’s massive downward revision”.
It is interesting because it goes to the heart of the meaning of ‘social’ science. Since the rise of cheap mega computer power that has made enormous amounts of data available instantly and computation and graphics easy, there has been a propensity to make social science into a de facto natural science.
From time to time, as in these two dialogues, the reality that social sconce is not dealing with rocks and other inanimate objects flies into our face. What I and, if I under stand him correctly, midtowng are saying is that you cannot factor out the human factor in economics. If all you do is statistics, then all you will do is describe. So-called inferential statistics is nothing more than predicating future descriptions based on passed descriptions.
Economics is essential a behavior science. Economic statistics describe aggregate human behavior. Accordingly, if one wants to transcend descriptions, both observed and predicted, then one must introduce behavior (psychological) variables. In part this is difficult because of the inherit complexity of human behavior. Also, in part, language used to describe human behavior is equivocal and often laced with pejorative connotations; e.g. ‘illegal aliens.’
I certainly agree with RO's efforts to eliminate what he calls ‘slander’ and ‘racist’ discussion. But, I THINK he may have a tendency to ‘throw out the baby with the bath water’, so to speak. Emphasis on ‘think’! This is a complex problem and commenting in a blog does not lend itself to perfect expression of complex ideas.
Nevertheless, in general, I would say that any blog that’s limited to statistics will make for ‘an interesting read’, as they say in journalism, but will not rise to the scientific level of causality and social change. Any causal hypotheses that lacks behavioral variables is meaningless in social (behavior) science e.g. economics.
Having said that, my compliments and appreciation to Robert Oak: I know of no other place on the net or in print for that matter were this type of epistemological discussion can take place.
Best
I think that's the difference. One can look at policy, at the number themselves, at the EIs themselves, at the legislation itself to find the corruption and flaws.
So, the point is to look at the data and accurate get a grip on it.....then you can determine, for example, that Geithner gave away the store to AIG for no legitimate reason.
Also, I'm referring to certain bloggers, there is too much huge economic insanity going on that is squeezing the U.S. middle class to get into all of that type of rot.
Don't worry, you're fine, although I do believe many focus on personalities because it's more difficult to get a handle on EIs, read legislation, read policy, understand the implications, but it's only by digging in that deep, at least in my opinion, does one stand a prayer's chance of stopping it.
I just reread some of your last post and noticed you're talking about your own personal history and some sort of reactionary something to some sort of family background.
So, here's mine. Originally I believed one should have unlimited migration and didn't see the big deal....until two things happened...I was sitting in corporate board meetings with an agenda to labor arbitrage workers and yes, through immigration, as well as outsourcing....as which I point, even then I kind of didn't really clue in...I still didn't really get it and just assumed these would be additional personnel....they didn't seriously intend on firing their over 40 PhDs with those kind of patent portfolios and offshore outsource their research...no way! (oops, wrong!)
Then, in my professional area, this executive agenda started to become a pattern....corporation after corporation I started seeing and hearing this was a plan.... and I kind of said....hmmmmmm.....and started really studying....and then formal study, labor econ study....and realized what a variable labor supply actually is.
which is one of the points of EP, it's not to deny statistical reality because someone wishes it so.
So, the point is to focus in on these economic realities and simply not go by something one's parents did or some predefined belief one has.
So often deep analysis will challenge beliefs, even in scientific beliefs one can be challenged and must keep an open mind.
I simply am saying no, because someone doesn't subscribe, conclude or want or whatever some unlimited migration/immigration policy....one cannot name call them racist xenophobes. That's it and I'm pointing it out because this is a notorious political tool to advance a special interest agenda and on EP we don't do that name calling crap to people additionally or deny economic realities. We're not DK.
Claiming all are racist is not valid, I'm sorry and I personally work in an international community so I know it's just not valid.
So, just because your parents were racists (or determined to be in your mind) does not mean all folk who do not agree with unlimited migration/immigration are therefore racists.
See the logic flaw in that conclusion? I hope so.
Last I checked labor economists or those starting their first course study, didn't suddenly look at a few equations and graphs and somehow a magic spell was cast upon them and they grew white sheets with the eyes cut out and burning white crosses grew out of their asses.
;)
The purpose of EP is respected and not to be challenged. That was not my intention. Rather, mine was about the nature of economics. If the sole or primary purpose is to DESCRIBE than the numbers are the only thing that is to be considered. Mine has nothing to do with slander. Where did that come from?
However, if there is any intention to EXPLAIN and indeed affect CHANGE in economic policy, and my impression is that explanation and change are objectives (else what is the meaning of Populist), then I posit that explanation is not complete without reference to personality. Geithner, for example, is making policy decisions. In part they can be explained by economic variables, but I believe that his ego, career objective, personal wealth, the egos, career objectives and wealth of the clique that put him in office can not be ignored. They are explanatory variables. Bonddad and NDD are carrying Geithner’s water ( promoting his policies) so they to are part of the EXPLANATION of what policies are put in place.
Again, it is not my intention to convince you to change the policy of your blog. Only to posit that if the objective of your blog is to EXPLAIN and CHANGE economic policy than you will not succeed with out personality variables. That is an epistemolgical proposition. For example, your often stated concern about WTO and other foreign trade policies that you think put the US at a disadvantage. You can describe the inequities statistically on ad infinitum but you will not explain why the polices exist until you consider who is promoting them in government and opinion makers supporting them. If you do not explain only complain, then there will not be a change.
You ask: “Why bother reading those who are consistently incorrect and playing "graph o rama cherry pick"? So we should ignore Geithner and the FED chair because they are incorrect? We should ignore public opinion makers because they are in correct? If the only thing you are interested in is being right then I agree. But, to understand the economy is to understand why people and the policies they promote are wrong. Anyone who considers that public opinion is a variable that affects government policy has to care about those who are both wrong and effective. If a blog is affecting public opinion or is representative of public opinion then it cannot be ignored. I think Rush Limbaugh is a fool. But, I listen to him every chance I get because he has enormous affect on public opinion and in turn public policy – including economic policy.
But, again it is not my intention to affect EP and I will not place comments inconsistent with its policy.
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First of all, I haven't done any name calling or screaming, nor have I gotten anywhere close to it. So I take offense that you are implying that I am. I've been very measured with my responses. It was you that brought up immigration in this thread, not I.
But the big problem I see here is a more basic one - you are trying to take the politics out of the economics.
I understand that this blog is about economics, but it is also populist.
Immigration is as much a political subject as an economic on. Racism is a political subject. You can't talk about immigration without addressing the subject of racism. At least you can't talk about it honestly.
Today's school of economics has the same problem. Economics today is taught like a math class. The whole idea of identifying and treating the productive part of the economy separate from the non-productive part of the economy is gone. Now all economic activity is treated the same, unlike how classical economics was once taught.
You can't be progressive in a math class. You can be progressive in an economics class, but you have to take politics into account.
I don't write all those labor history essays just because I enjoy history. I write them because there are lessons to be applied today.
The labor movement peaked and went into terminal decline when it decided that there was no room for a political movement.
I'm not interested in writing on a sterile economics blog. I want one with a progressive agenda.
Jesus, when I saw "Grover Norquist" I thought the site had been spammed! I should have put him in my "top 10 tar and feather" candidates.
So.....then I go reading the letter and OH Shit! Considering Fannie/Freddie are now asking for $800 billion bucks....this ain't too good!
I guess I'll say this as well, ya know if something is accurate, well done, cited....and economics related, esp. on the middle class screw job...
feel free to write about it, link and so on...yet another reason to dig in deep and stay all econ 24/7 and stay away from partisanship and rhetoric and don't worry what the source is....well cited, accurate, good investigative stuff is....well cited, accurate, good investigative stuff.
I knew that the Freddie/Fannie debacle was deep in the Dem camp but none of this I've ever heard of.
I mean this. Not on EP. We're not going there on this name calling scream fest. That's your opinion, but I'm sorry, it's not labor econ fact.
Back to this idea that somehow anyone who doesn't believe in unlimited global migration is somehow a racist xenophobe (and yes, next comment implying this will be deleted!!)
The reason it won't work is because firstly, corporations control labor markets, secondly the world is a group of nation-states, each with it's own labor markets and laws and various immigration restrictions. 3rdly, each nation-state has a differing PPP. Some nation-states have huge labor forces and not a lot of domestic development. You simply cannot say the United States, with a labor force of about 150 million, should be the jobs market for a labor force of 1.8 billion and most of those are coming from nation-states with very low GDP/PPP.
Just look at the reunification of Germany. E. Germany had a much lower PPP and a much higher unemployment rate. What happened was it caused massive unemployment in both countries, lowered labor securities, reduced labor power, affected Germany's overall PPP/GDP for a good 10 years until better equilibrium could be achieved. They still have problems from this.
Same reason EU took so much time homogenizing their member countries so they would not have a sudden labor market flow....and only then did they liberalize their migration laws...and it's only w/in EU member states again for the reasons above and they all have pretty strong labor laws to begin with, very close GDP/PPP (in comparison to 3rd world).
Also, one can end up with forced migration. Now what economic model is this? Slavery.
We already have corporations routinely, just the other day they are recommending further reduction of labor costs to weather the storm due to slow economic growth. i.e. more layoffs, more job losses.
On the flip side to this, almost every other nation-state on Earth put's it's citizens first for jobs. i.e. an American cannot just walk into India, China, Germany, and esp. Mexico and get a job.
So, you are advocating for a massive supply influx and there is not a reciprocal out flux for Americans to escape the resulting race to the bottom on wages. On top of it, that implies Americans, would be forced to reduce their quality of life, standard of living as it would for most of the high PPP nation-states as this "came into equilibrium" (i.e. cheap labor everywhere)
Labor econ is a legitimate economics topic and it's massive because labor supply has a strong effect on an economy. So does population as well as global population.
These are just economic realities....this isn't some grand conspiracy to hate certain sectors of the global population and that's pretty absurd too, since America and Americans means, black, brown, purple, disabled, women, older, younger, etc. with all sorts of ethic roots.
So, while it seems grand the free movement of people's is precisely why MNCs want it, because they will control it....and some nation-states with labor oversupply want it....because once again, it helps their GDP by transferring entire market sectors as well as remittances.
Mexico is remittances, India is capturing services, China is capturing manufacturing....
They are not advocating that so people can demand more labor rights, higher wages, of course not. They understand they can manipulate labor supply on steroids with such an agenda.
So, if one wants to do such a thing there are a host of infrastructures that would need to happen first, else you will have a labor supply disaster...
i.e. global union with a lot of power, in every single labor market. Every nation, every single one, would have to have equal social safety nets, labor laws, minimum wage requirements to ensure corporations could not play nation-states against each other to find the cheapest exploitable labor. If one wanted to have a "guaranteed jobs" program (an idea running around) one would have to have this implemented globally, every country, else once again, one would create in one nation-state with limited resources, limited # of jobs that economy could support....and have 1.8 billion people demanding those jobs.
It's just like a Tobin tax. It won't work unless it's global....if one nation only does it...well, the flow just goes elsewhere.
It's like a bunch of pipes....you cannot have "spigot off" around the globe and have "spigot on" in just one nation-state and not expect to have very serious consequences.
Then, firstly racism is just not an strictly econ topic, but even more this is rhetoric SCREAMED continually from special interest groups, so labor econ/migration flows/immigration related topics simply cannot be discussed rationally. It also implies that somehow only America can have that sort of characteristic, which currently and historically isn't valid.
But the biggest reason is the use of this to shut down any objective analysis, discussion, based on sound labor econ.
There are plenty of other sites which will scream this from the rooftops and that's yet another reason to not go there. We are an econ 24/7 site, not a screaming rhetoric devoid of objective, well founded analysis, which demands one at least crack a labor econ text.
that immigration was a big problem. But then I was also raised up around racists, and that niggers were stupid.
It wasn't until I got older that I realized that the two concepts go hand in hand. What I am saying isn't controversial, or even really up for debate: the anti-immigration zealots are almost always racists.
Years after I got out on my own someone made the statement that really stuck with me - how can a person be illegal?
What in the Hell does it mean to say someone is illegal?
As an American we don't really think about it much. But put yourself in the place of trying to emigrate to another country. Let's say, Australia. Well, they probably don't want you, in the same way that we don't want Mexicans. The EXACT same way.
There is also the concept of how capital is free to move, but labor isn't. That's how the multi-national corporations play labor arbitrage against all of us. It's in the best interests of the rich and wealthy to make sure they all of us worker bees stay "illegal" if they should want to stray across a border.
because the claim they add to the economy is not true. What is true when one floods the labor market you will lower wages for natives. That's been shown over and over and over, including the 1800's or just look at the Germany reunification or China, India or any nation which has a sudden influx.
This is labor econ 101, take any text, from Borjas to Samuelson and you will see that the law of supply and demand, all else static holds and it's held throughout history.
If you look at the Miami study, which is an anomaly, what you find is in certain conditions it will appear that way but it's actually other factors. The real estate boom and job boom in the 1980's, believe this or not, was fueled by drug money.
So, no we're not going there on this site, trying to claim that somehow the law of labor economics is false AND trying to claim any discussion of this is racist to obfuscate labor econ.
You know I am aware of union history but you forget the fact that first they had to be exploited and then it took almost 100 years to get somewhere.....and ignoring the fact that (wrongly obviously by the type of restrictions done of course) but they changed immigration in the 1920's which did limit labor supply.
We have on this site, everything from full bore open borders beliefs to full bore "deport 'em all" beliefs....
so there is no way I want these name calling things on the site. It is real, immigration does indeed affect wage levels, labor markets and even EPI, right at the moment is wrestling with these economic realities. As you know EPI is the think tank for the AFL-CIO.
That isn't what I'm saying. Not even close.
I'm saying that immigrants aren't a significant problem, nor are they even the source of what little problem they might be.
You talk about social services they use. Well, they contribute far more than they use. Immigrants don't come to this country to sit on welfare. They come to work. Period. I respect that. And because they are illegal there is no possible way that they can utilize a significant amount of government services.
OTOH, by persecuting them you make it impossible for them to organize into unions. You might not know this, but immigrants from Europe were the most active and vocal unionizing sector back in the 19th Century.
But my largest point, the one you seem to be missing, is that blaming immigrants for our problems has a very, very long history.
Almost every time it was wrong and done on a purely racist level.
Almost every time it was used by the people in power, the ones that caused the misery in society, to divide, distract and exploit the working class.
So when you start echoing the talking points of the powerful, of the exploiters, you should step back and say to yourself, "Who do I sound like?" If you take that second step to think and work out it out for yourself and you still come to the same conclusion, then that's fine. Good for you. But if you don't make that extra effort then you are setting yourself up to be played the fool.
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