I have not read Krugman's book on Japan (or any other)....considering we're going down the same road, someone who has read it, who wants to write up a "book review" to share with the rest of the class would be a great addition.
Or a blog post on how we're all Japanese now. (wasn't that a song in the 1980's?)
Good observation RO. The USD is supplanting the Yen carry trade of the last decade or so. For all of Ben's QE, the velocity of money has stayed pretty close to zero or even negative. The (illegal?) purchase of MBS and other toxic assets has fueled a "non-moral hazzard" rally in the stock market, at the expense of the US taxpayer. Every reasonable assault on the logical basis for the stock market rally is met by another irrrational equivocation from the Treasury Dept. or the FED. Realistically, the fundamentals most assuredly suck, but some .gov agency finds a way of dissenting. Kind of reminds me of climate change deniers.
The average citizen has no awareness of the extra tax burden that has been heaped upon them in the name of economic recovery. We are a retracement of Japan over the past 20 years. Our elected officials and their appointments in the key positions of government agencies know it! Their choice to ignore the consequences of history is an idictment of their intent to do harm to the US economy, and it's citizen tax payers.
to try to say to the American people that we should "get used to" high unemployment as permanent. We, or at least I, think this is utter bullshit. If they would enact a host of policies that would not be.
Right that monetary view on the money supply seems to hold although there are others on inflation.
Stagflation is defined as high inflation with economic malaise or slow growth. I'm not an expert, haven't even written anything on stagflation but my guess for the biggest cause was the oil crisis. Modern economies are so highly dep. on this commodity, a sudden shortage will cause pretty much all prices to rise, but no real resulting GDP corresponding rise. (That's off the top of my head).
Interesting piece. There was a "movement" although it would have to be done on a massive scale, to simply refuse to pay off debt to the banks.
Yeah, obviously banking on the "next election" ain't working out too well.
In the middle column, there is a blog pension pulse, who writes a lot on retirement, pension funds (of which most have none and then those who do....it's at risk).
The contracted credit and people sitting on their money is kind of keeping M1 in check then otherwise we'd see runaway inflation.
Is this the dreaded stagflation just not yet labeled as such?
The latest swirls I'm catching is a consensus that jobs aren't coming back and we know the home as an ATM days are over so they can't count on consumers or small business to lead a recovery.
yes it is. Yeah, we try to keep that cheerleading, personalities and TR gangs out of here so we can just have a conversation. It's hard enough to get a real detailed handle on what's happening without all of that additional noise.
(Welcome to EP btw!)
ok, the money supply is not only affected by Ben's printing press but also velocity. So, if there are less transactions, even though he's printing like mad, the actual affects through reduced velocity are the same.
We haven't done a M1 for a while but I believe he's cut it back somewhat.
Here's the latest M1:
yeah, there is a massive carry trade where people are funding foreign investments with U.S. dollars because of the zero interest rates, (cheap, free money) and watching the dollar tank.
Yeah, entropy manifests itself in so many ways. I've become somewhat familiar with Tainter in the past year or so. Mainly because I find Prechter's Elliott Wave stuff absolutely fascinating, and compelling. But I have to admit, I'm not in their league intellectually, but I aspire to be. BTW, I find your arguments compelling as well, and far from conspiracy theory. We live in interesting times, indeed!
Very much reminds me of the writing of economic anthropologist Joseph A. Tainter, who has done some truly brilliant research along the fundamental lines of the how and why societies collapse (his book: The Collapse of Complex Societies is brilliant!).
To get a quick understanding of his writing, just read this very brief paper of his which beautifully sums up his research on that matter.
Several sentences to ponder from his wiki entry:
We often assume that the collapse of the Roman Empire was a catastrophe for everyone involved. Tainter points out that it can be seen as a very rational preference of individuals at the time, many of whom were actually better off (all but the elite, presumably).
Such reasoning might lead one to believe that any democratic-loving people south of the border (Honduras, Bolivia, Venezuela and Columbia, perhaps?) might not be too displeased with the dissolution of the USA as an economic pseudo-superpower. Likewise some other countries in the Middle East and Asia.
One very crucially important historical point Prof. Tainter has made several times, is that in human history there has NEVER been a case of any society ever de-economizing.
I understand where you were coming from with this topic I was really kind of going off the main focus here. I definitely see the satire of debating someone with their own quotes!
I have seen Bonddad like posts on Dkos and there are more pom pom cheerleaders going on there for those while diaries from BonSwern are outright attacked. I stopped going there when I started to read about a movement to stop what the in crowd viewed as attacks on the cheerleaders etc. They only want to represent one POV. There is a gang mentality there.
When the economy starts rebounding I'll be the first one to leap for joy. Right now the stimulus has focused on union jobs at the municipal and construction level which don't help me at all. The private sector middle class taxpayer and independent business people are left in the cold.
I have a question though regarding this deflationary period.
If they are printing money as fast as possible and it appears they are and it appears the Fed has a private set of books that we never see (Bloomberg over $9 trillion unaccounted for at the Fed). How is the money supply contracting?
On a larger scale I see that when Bernanke started raising interest rates during his tenure the economy started to tank. He is holding them at zero and they are propping up banks left and right but Wall Street is now stuck in neutral so there is more and more money and its worth less because really even commodities which have gone up this year appear to have hit a wall. I guess technically when the amount of dollars is increasing and the commodities based on dollars is flat thats deflation but the money supply is expanding still. Its an odd situation isn't it?
Stupak (yes I know, surprise, suprise) but I don't understand why they cannot regulate all derivatives, period and this amendment seems to pull more out from exemptions.
Its one thing to have regulation effect the cost of production or cost of doing business to an excessive point but that is incredibly different from a situation where regulating something simply effects the size of the profit margins from that activity. The latter situation certainly doesn't outweigh the benefits of the potential regulations.
Frank is arguing against this amendment which (once again) redefines those being required to be regulated on derivatives. This "seems" to be sponsored by U.S. manufacturing, who do hedge against sudden price changes in raw commodities, energies.
I don't know which one is worse, first I heard of this, not sure why a regulated OTC derivatives market would hurt them and so on.
Def. of major swap participant. On the other hand, if there is an exemption I imagine GS would want to be recategorized as a U.S. manufacturing company. ;)
I'm referring to the tirade being spewn at us because of the call out by midtowng.
Well, there are a lot of stats, in particular employment statistics, that really need to be updated to accurately reflect the real state of the labor market, no doubt.
I think on EP, we try to look at the actual stats released from the gov. and reach our own conclusions as well as examine discrepancies. i.e. we don't buy into the MSM cheerleading headlines here.
Because of the Internets, one can get access to a slew of raw data.
We're focus on the facts, policy, stats, bills so if you want to say you're disappointed in Obama who voted and supported him, you're in good company.
I think I'm the odd duck out in terms of really sitting out on the Pres. election because I didn't like anybody.
Anyway, I'm trying to stop the "other party" smear campaign that we don't look at statistics, EIs, reports, raw data and so on. We do indeed.
According to Bloomberg: Mortgage ‘Cram-Down’ Bankruptcy Amendment Fails in U.S. House.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
Robert, good try.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
What a complex mess. They should just break up the big banks.
but the rejection of the Stupak amendments was really bad news, although the rejection of one of Franks was good news.
A whole slew of amendments were passed by voice vote at the end and I didn't catch them all.
What I'm finding amazing it is seems we're the only econ blog watching this blow by blow.
I am expecting more of the same.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
By Frank enabling corporate lobbyist
puppetRep. Melissa Bean get her lobbyist wish list into the manager amendment.Documenting the tragedy is the Washington Post.
I have not read Krugman's book on Japan (or any other)....considering we're going down the same road, someone who has read it, who wants to write up a "book review" to share with the rest of the class would be a great addition.
Or a blog post on how we're all Japanese now. (wasn't that a song in the 1980's?)
Good observation RO. The USD is supplanting the Yen carry trade of the last decade or so. For all of Ben's QE, the velocity of money has stayed pretty close to zero or even negative. The (illegal?) purchase of MBS and other toxic assets has fueled a "non-moral hazzard" rally in the stock market, at the expense of the US taxpayer. Every reasonable assault on the logical basis for the stock market rally is met by another irrrational equivocation from the Treasury Dept. or the FED. Realistically, the fundamentals most assuredly suck, but some .gov agency finds a way of dissenting. Kind of reminds me of climate change deniers.
The average citizen has no awareness of the extra tax burden that has been heaped upon them in the name of economic recovery. We are a retracement of Japan over the past 20 years. Our elected officials and their appointments in the key positions of government agencies know it! Their choice to ignore the consequences of history is an idictment of their intent to do harm to the US economy, and it's citizen tax payers.
to try to say to the American people that we should "get used to" high unemployment as permanent. We, or at least I, think this is utter bullshit. If they would enact a host of policies that would not be.
Right that monetary view on the money supply seems to hold although there are others on inflation.
Stagflation is defined as high inflation with economic malaise or slow growth. I'm not an expert, haven't even written anything on stagflation but my guess for the biggest cause was the oil crisis. Modern economies are so highly dep. on this commodity, a sudden shortage will cause pretty much all prices to rise, but no real resulting GDP corresponding rise. (That's off the top of my head).
Interesting piece. There was a "movement" although it would have to be done on a massive scale, to simply refuse to pay off debt to the banks.
Yeah, obviously banking on the "next election" ain't working out too well.
In the middle column, there is a blog pension pulse, who writes a lot on retirement, pension funds (of which most have none and then those who do....it's at risk).
The contracted credit and people sitting on their money is kind of keeping M1 in check then otherwise we'd see runaway inflation.
Is this the dreaded stagflation just not yet labeled as such?
The latest swirls I'm catching is a consensus that jobs aren't coming back and we know the home as an ATM days are over so they can't count on consumers or small business to lead a recovery.
Have you seen this:
http://secessioplebis.blogspot.com/2009/11/trust-busting-by-people-for-p...
Interesting concept overall.
I'll have to dig into some of this formula wise etc, its not like I don't have the time these days.
yes it is. Yeah, we try to keep that cheerleading, personalities and TR gangs out of here so we can just have a conversation. It's hard enough to get a real detailed handle on what's happening without all of that additional noise.
(Welcome to EP btw!)
ok, the money supply is not only affected by Ben's printing press but also velocity. So, if there are less transactions, even though he's printing like mad, the actual affects through reduced velocity are the same.
See this for the equations.
We haven't done a M1 for a while but I believe he's cut it back somewhat.
Here's the latest M1:
yeah, there is a massive carry trade where people are funding foreign investments with U.S. dollars because of the zero interest rates, (cheap, free money) and watching the dollar tank.
This is one of the cases for long on Gold.
Yeah, entropy manifests itself in so many ways. I've become somewhat familiar with Tainter in the past year or so. Mainly because I find Prechter's Elliott Wave stuff absolutely fascinating, and compelling. But I have to admit, I'm not in their league intellectually, but I aspire to be. BTW, I find your arguments compelling as well, and far from conspiracy theory. We live in interesting times, indeed!
Thanks for JMG's latest essay; quite good.
Very much reminds me of the writing of economic anthropologist Joseph A. Tainter, who has done some truly brilliant research along the fundamental lines of the how and why societies collapse (his book: The Collapse of Complex Societies is brilliant!).
To get a quick understanding of his writing, just read this very brief paper of his which beautifully sums up his research on that matter.
Several sentences to ponder from his wiki entry:
Such reasoning might lead one to believe that any democratic-loving people south of the border (Honduras, Bolivia, Venezuela and Columbia, perhaps?) might not be too displeased with the dissolution of the USA as an economic pseudo-superpower. Likewise some other countries in the Middle East and Asia.
One very crucially important historical point Prof. Tainter has made several times, is that in human history there has NEVER been a case of any society ever de-economizing.
Gives one pause for thought.....
I understand where you were coming from with this topic I was really kind of going off the main focus here. I definitely see the satire of debating someone with their own quotes!
I have seen Bonddad like posts on Dkos and there are more pom pom cheerleaders going on there for those while diaries from BonSwern are outright attacked. I stopped going there when I started to read about a movement to stop what the in crowd viewed as attacks on the cheerleaders etc. They only want to represent one POV. There is a gang mentality there.
When the economy starts rebounding I'll be the first one to leap for joy. Right now the stimulus has focused on union jobs at the municipal and construction level which don't help me at all. The private sector middle class taxpayer and independent business people are left in the cold.
I have a question though regarding this deflationary period.
If they are printing money as fast as possible and it appears they are and it appears the Fed has a private set of books that we never see (Bloomberg over $9 trillion unaccounted for at the Fed). How is the money supply contracting?
On a larger scale I see that when Bernanke started raising interest rates during his tenure the economy started to tank. He is holding them at zero and they are propping up banks left and right but Wall Street is now stuck in neutral so there is more and more money and its worth less because really even commodities which have gone up this year appear to have hit a wall. I guess technically when the amount of dollars is increasing and the commodities based on dollars is flat thats deflation but the money supply is expanding still. Its an odd situation isn't it?
Stupak (yes I know, surprise, suprise) but I don't understand why they cannot regulate all derivatives, period and this amendment seems to pull more out from exemptions.
Its one thing to have regulation effect the cost of production or cost of doing business to an excessive point but that is incredibly different from a situation where regulating something simply effects the size of the profit margins from that activity. The latter situation certainly doesn't outweigh the benefits of the potential regulations.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
Frank is arguing against this amendment which (once again) redefines those being required to be regulated on derivatives. This "seems" to be sponsored by U.S. manufacturing, who do hedge against sudden price changes in raw commodities, energies.
I don't know which one is worse, first I heard of this, not sure why a regulated OTC derivatives market would hurt them and so on.
Def. of major swap participant. On the other hand, if there is an exemption I imagine GS would want to be recategorized as a U.S. manufacturing company. ;)
Many end users are extending derivatives beyond simply hedging they are making it into a profit center.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
I'm referring to the tirade being spewn at us because of the call out by midtowng.
Well, there are a lot of stats, in particular employment statistics, that really need to be updated to accurately reflect the real state of the labor market, no doubt.
I think on EP, we try to look at the actual stats released from the gov. and reach our own conclusions as well as examine discrepancies. i.e. we don't buy into the MSM cheerleading headlines here.
Because of the Internets, one can get access to a slew of raw data.
We're focus on the facts, policy, stats, bills so if you want to say you're disappointed in Obama who voted and supported him, you're in good company.
I think I'm the odd duck out in terms of really sitting out on the Pres. election because I didn't like anybody.
Anyway, I'm trying to stop the "other party" smear campaign that we don't look at statistics, EIs, reports, raw data and so on. We do indeed.
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