Nice reminder Rebel. And when these idiots claim it's all due to technological advances in productivity, I"d just like to scream. We all know that cheap labor enters into productivity equations, it's wage/hr. in these equations...
so offshore outsource production, wala, productivity magically goes up because they are unfortunately attributing production overseas to U.S. domestic production in productivity calculations. (due to global supply chain, components).
earlier there were posts, in all caps no less, claiming Delong and Krugman were wrong on how many jobs needed to happen to claim a sustainable real recovery.
NDD has abandoned us, which is a shame and what this entire "V" thing is about, I'm unsure but ya know, I just hope none of us get too attached to outcomes on EP.
I've been dead wrong on gold and I fully admit it. My timing on gold has been serious screwed up. I thought it would hit a year ago, I was wrong on inflation with such beyond believe Fed financial commitments, a host of things...
but fortunately I didn't declare it all to be so in a blog post so I was having to eat my words. ;)
it's about 10% of total U.S. employment and has dropped dramatically, < 12% of total U.S. GDP.
Also, these cats who claim "productivity" and "technological advances" are the reason we've lost so many manufacturing jobs just completely ignore the mass exodus to cheap labor markets, like China.
But the report says auto manufacturing remained strong, after cash4clunkers. We'll see.
and then the services ISM is due out this week.
I believe (forget the implosion) the downhill slide in the U.S. is from manufacturing. It also spurs advanced R&D, all sorts of side job creation, i.e. the real economy, so seeing positive numbers like this is a very good sign, although we have a long way to go.
I believe just in a matter of a few years it's overall impact on U.S. GDP has dropped dramatically and needs to be increased.
Thanks to Midtowng and ‘the Rebel’ for your quick responses to my comment.
Midtowng, I feel a need to say that I type up my comments in Word and copy to the comment section. After I posted, I realized that I failed to copy the last one word line “Respectfully”. Reading my comment I fear it sounds a tad sophomoric. “You da’ man”
Back to economics, your point about the ISM being 15% of the economy is well taken. New Deal seems to be aware of this. He writes: “we still need to see what the ISM service index shows on Wednesday before we can dare to hope that Friday's October jobs number might actually print positive.”
More generally, all the contradictory economic talk points to how helpless the average worker is when it comes to ‘rationally’ affecting our economic well being. I am in a high percentile of education. However, I have no economic education and never bought stocks or bonds. I’m still mad that my bank took my passbook account away from me.
So how do I, and the rest of the working class rationally make an informed decision? It seems to come down to a guess – indeed ‘hope’. Or, frustration to the point of aggression.
I think the “Tea Parties” are not about this or that bill so much as venting shear frustration. Who can possible get mad at the content of these bills? No one reads them, and if they do they probably don’t understand them, and if they do understand them, the provisions change daily. So the aggression can best be explained by frustration resulting from the realization that participator democracy is an illusion and the opium of the people.
I just took a very rare visit to the Bonddad Blog. From what I can tell, New Deal is even more bullish than Bonddad. At least Bonddad voices concerns about where future growth is going to come from. New Deal shows none of that concern (that I've seen).
I'm going to just let things play out. Unless New Deal faces reality soon, he's going to discredit himself. That would be a shame.
I'm sorry, the bus for a "V" recovery left the station a long time ago.
You cannot have protracted and increasing unemployment and claim a magic "V".
Seriously, what kind of slope is a V now supposed to be?
Let's see, if I wait 2 years and unemployment goes down, can I claim that's a V job recovery? I don't think so.
So, unless I've lost perspective on what "V" means, what a dramatic rate of change means, the entire "V" prediction is long gone and also plain wrong...
unless one wishes to turn a "|_______-" into somehow a "V"
slope.
But to me, one cannot say we're going to have a "V", 4 months, 6 months later, when clearly it is not a "V", then claim somehow a long time window compacts and magically creates a "V".
As I understand it the ISM is only about manufacturing, which is about 15% of the economy.
Even this bump in the number can be largely attributed to the now defunct cash4klunkers program.
The ISM is a measure of the direction of improvement, not the degree, so don’t extrapolate that we’re partying like its April ‘06, but we are certainly better off than April ‘09,” Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, wrote in a note to clients.
At the end of the day we have to look at our political system. Think about why no nation on Earth copied our political system. Every other democracy on this planet has gone to the parliamentary system.
It's just a matter of watching the numbers now. New Deal is a true believer in the V recovery.
If it happens - great. I hope I'm wrong.
I don't think there's a chance in Hell that I'm wrong, but then I've been known to be wrong before.
How do you reconcile your negative data (e.g. "the GDP of Stimulus") with New Deal Democrate who posted the following today:
“The October ISM Manufacturing Index report is out, and it's a blowout. This is as good as it gets, there is definitely a V shaped recovery in manufacturing underway.
Perhaps most importantly of all, for the first time in ages, employment actually grew, at 53.1 vs. last month's 46.2. Additionally, 20% of employers reported plans to hire workers, and 64% who planned on stable workforces, for a total of 84, vs. 15% who planned layoffs, for a net +4 in the index.
At no point during the 1992-3 and 2002-3 "jobless recoveries" did the ISM manufacturing index ever rise to 54 or above. A number above 54 has always meant job growth in the overall economy.”
and if we believe Federal Government budgets are screwed up...well, just look at the CA insanity as a prime example in terms of cutting budgets effectively.
OK. We try to focus on the facts and details. SS is actually solvent and easily fixed with removing on the regressivity of the taxes on it.
It is Medicaid/Medicare that is ballooning and much of this is due to the out of control costs....and try examining the "for profit" health care sector companies on that one, not the workers, or even Doctors for ballooning costs.
Both parties are corrupt, bought and paid for by corporate lobbyists. there are many in Congress who are honest, trying very hard but are often beaten down by lobbyists and their political puppets.
Lobbyists also driven the public "debate" with a lot of false information.
Example is the health insurance companies trying to block any reforms and using cable news, fictional reports to do it.
You can see on EP, we are non-partisan in our blasts. If it's stupid policy, it's stupid policy, if it's a bad bill, it's a bad bill.
But the point is to dig out the truth and there are a lot of think tanks also spewing out false reports, or are front groups for lobbyists, so one really needs to dig into information from 1st principles to swim through the noise.
The problem with these arguments is Medicare, medicaid and VA health care work and are government run and work pretty well.
No one is talking about the wait times in the U.S. with private health care to get into a specialist, the wait lists for surgery and so on.
This issue is fictional, "big" government vs. "small" government.
What I want is efficient government, not corrupt government.
But having the insurance companies run health care is obviously inefficient and corrupt. How else can the U.S. pay 2 times to 8 times more per person in health care and have worst results than other nations.
it allows for the most powerful remedies including disgorgement of profits meanings someone guilty of RICO violations may be subject to giving up any profits made by those fraudulent actions.
One is not better than the other. I don't like this weak public option either. Single payer is a better way to go but what we are seeing is that corporations own both parties.
Nice reminder Rebel. And when these idiots claim it's all due to technological advances in productivity, I"d just like to scream. We all know that cheap labor enters into productivity equations, it's wage/hr. in these equations...
so offshore outsource production, wala, productivity magically goes up because they are unfortunately attributing production overseas to U.S. domestic production in productivity calculations. (due to global supply chain, components).
That's a big hole to fill and this is just manufacturing. But this also shows something else.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
earlier there were posts, in all caps no less, claiming Delong and Krugman were wrong on how many jobs needed to happen to claim a sustainable real recovery.
NDD has abandoned us, which is a shame and what this entire "V" thing is about, I'm unsure but ya know, I just hope none of us get too attached to outcomes on EP.
I've been dead wrong on gold and I fully admit it. My timing on gold has been serious screwed up. I thought it would hit a year ago, I was wrong on inflation with such beyond believe Fed financial commitments, a host of things...
but fortunately I didn't declare it all to be so in a blog post so I was having to eat my words. ;)
The ISM is not current, it's future, so I sincerely doubt it would impact the upcoming unemployment reports so quickly.
it's about 10% of total U.S. employment and has dropped dramatically, < 12% of total U.S. GDP.
Also, these cats who claim "productivity" and "technological advances" are the reason we've lost so many manufacturing jobs just completely ignore the mass exodus to cheap labor markets, like China.
But the report says auto manufacturing remained strong, after cash4clunkers. We'll see.
and then the services ISM is due out this week.
I believe (forget the implosion) the downhill slide in the U.S. is from manufacturing. It also spurs advanced R&D, all sorts of side job creation, i.e. the real economy, so seeing positive numbers like this is a very good sign, although we have a long way to go.
I believe just in a matter of a few years it's overall impact on U.S. GDP has dropped dramatically and needs to be increased.
Thanks to Midtowng and ‘the Rebel’ for your quick responses to my comment.
Midtowng, I feel a need to say that I type up my comments in Word and copy to the comment section. After I posted, I realized that I failed to copy the last one word line “Respectfully”. Reading my comment I fear it sounds a tad sophomoric. “You da’ man”
Back to economics, your point about the ISM being 15% of the economy is well taken. New Deal seems to be aware of this. He writes: “we still need to see what the ISM service index shows on Wednesday before we can dare to hope that Friday's October jobs number might actually print positive.”
More generally, all the contradictory economic talk points to how helpless the average worker is when it comes to ‘rationally’ affecting our economic well being. I am in a high percentile of education. However, I have no economic education and never bought stocks or bonds. I’m still mad that my bank took my passbook account away from me.
So how do I, and the rest of the working class rationally make an informed decision? It seems to come down to a guess – indeed ‘hope’. Or, frustration to the point of aggression.
I think the “Tea Parties” are not about this or that bill so much as venting shear frustration. Who can possible get mad at the content of these bills? No one reads them, and if they do they probably don’t understand them, and if they do understand them, the provisions change daily. So the aggression can best be explained by frustration resulting from the realization that participator democracy is an illusion and the opium of the people.
Thanks again.
I just took a very rare visit to the Bonddad Blog. From what I can tell, New Deal is even more bullish than Bonddad. At least Bonddad voices concerns about where future growth is going to come from. New Deal shows none of that concern (that I've seen).
I'm going to just let things play out. Unless New Deal faces reality soon, he's going to discredit himself. That would be a shame.
I'm sorry, the bus for a "V" recovery left the station a long time ago.
You cannot have protracted and increasing unemployment and claim a magic "V".
Seriously, what kind of slope is a V now supposed to be?
Let's see, if I wait 2 years and unemployment goes down, can I claim that's a V job recovery? I don't think so.
So, unless I've lost perspective on what "V" means, what a dramatic rate of change means, the entire "V" prediction is long gone and also plain wrong...
unless one wishes to turn a "|_______-" into somehow a "V"
slope.
But to me, one cannot say we're going to have a "V", 4 months, 6 months later, when clearly it is not a "V", then claim somehow a long time window compacts and magically creates a "V".
As I understand it the ISM is only about manufacturing, which is about 15% of the economy.
Even this bump in the number can be largely attributed to the now defunct cash4klunkers program.
and people back to work. I would only offer a quote from a Bloomberg article regarding today's numbers:
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
At the end of the day we have to look at our political system. Think about why no nation on Earth copied our political system. Every other democracy on this planet has gone to the parliamentary system.
It's just a matter of watching the numbers now. New Deal is a true believer in the V recovery.
If it happens - great. I hope I'm wrong.
I don't think there's a chance in Hell that I'm wrong, but then I've been known to be wrong before.
Midtowngs “got some spla’n to do:
How do you reconcile your negative data (e.g. "the GDP of Stimulus") with New Deal Democrate who posted the following today:
“The October ISM Manufacturing Index report is out, and it's a blowout. This is as good as it gets, there is definitely a V shaped recovery in manufacturing underway.
Perhaps most importantly of all, for the first time in ages, employment actually grew, at 53.1 vs. last month's 46.2. Additionally, 20% of employers reported plans to hire workers, and 64% who planned on stable workforces, for a total of 84, vs. 15% who planned layoffs, for a net +4 in the index.
At no point during the 1992-3 and 2002-3 "jobless recoveries" did the ISM manufacturing index ever rise to 54 or above. A number above 54 has always meant job growth in the overall economy.”
and if we believe Federal Government budgets are screwed up...well, just look at the CA insanity as a prime example in terms of cutting budgets effectively.
OK. We try to focus on the facts and details. SS is actually solvent and easily fixed with removing on the regressivity of the taxes on it.
It is Medicaid/Medicare that is ballooning and much of this is due to the out of control costs....and try examining the "for profit" health care sector companies on that one, not the workers, or even Doctors for ballooning costs.
Both parties are corrupt, bought and paid for by corporate lobbyists. there are many in Congress who are honest, trying very hard but are often beaten down by lobbyists and their political puppets.
Lobbyists also driven the public "debate" with a lot of false information.
Example is the health insurance companies trying to block any reforms and using cable news, fictional reports to do it.
You can see on EP, we are non-partisan in our blasts. If it's stupid policy, it's stupid policy, if it's a bad bill, it's a bad bill.
But the point is to dig out the truth and there are a lot of think tanks also spewing out false reports, or are front groups for lobbyists, so one really needs to dig into information from 1st principles to swim through the noise.
The problem with these arguments is Medicare, medicaid and VA health care work and are government run and work pretty well.
No one is talking about the wait times in the U.S. with private health care to get into a specialist, the wait lists for surgery and so on.
This issue is fictional, "big" government vs. "small" government.
What I want is efficient government, not corrupt government.
But having the insurance companies run health care is obviously inefficient and corrupt. How else can the U.S. pay 2 times to 8 times more per person in health care and have worst results than other nations.
it allows for the most powerful remedies including disgorgement of profits meanings someone guilty of RICO violations may be subject to giving up any profits made by those fraudulent actions.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
There are massive protests and debates about bringing health care to everyone at the cost of $90 Billion a year.
Meanwhile Obama just signed into law $680 Billion in military spending for this year.
Where are the protests to this?
I'm just saying is it RICO? Clearly GS needs to be investigated and prosecuted.
These token fines that are slaps on the wrist are absurd.
One is not better than the other. I don't like this weak public option either. Single payer is a better way to go but what we are seeing is that corporations own both parties.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
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