The Economic Populist
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US oil supplies at a 36½ year low, SPR at a 39 year low; oil+products supplies at an 18½ year low
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Subprime meltdown over; now comes the bad news
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VAT or Value Added Tax is Getting a Look in D.C.
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"Take Care That the Laws be Faithfully Executed"
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And How Does Globalization Benefit Us?
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Post Nuclear Japan, Pre Disaster United States
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US oil supplies at a 36½ year low, SPR at a 39 year low; oil+products supplies at an 18½ year low
- 185954 reads
Subprime meltdown over; now comes the bad news
- 105926 reads
VAT or Value Added Tax is Getting a Look in D.C.
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"Take Care That the Laws be Faithfully Executed"
- 15268 reads
And How Does Globalization Benefit Us?
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Post Nuclear Japan, Pre Disaster United States
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The Golden Rule
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Will the NY Attorney General Bring Doomsday Charges Against Wall Street? If So, How Long Will He Survive?
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New York Post Claims Census Falsifies Unemployment Figures
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How Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population Growth?
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VAT or Value Added Tax is Getting a Look in D.C.
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U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression
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The war on the middle class
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House discusses 401k/IRA confiscation
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Tax Cuts for the Rich Do Not Generate Jobs
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effectiveness for speed. This are half-ass measures, whether financial regulation or health care reform, I know that politics are driving this. I agree, we need to slow down and do this right the first time.
The regulatory regime needs a complete overhaul. There are too many overlapping jurisdictions then to add two new bureaucracies on top of that is crazy.
If we had the return of Glass-Steagall and reform the regulatory structure, we won't need a systemic risk regulator.
I don't think either you or NDD has concluded a top out @ 10%. If I recall correctly this is the main stream economists estimates, which so far have been blasted as pathetically incorrect.
A history lesson on unemployment begats unemployment begats depression with stats, histograms would be a hot post I think.
They pounded and even ran campaigns against the massive bail outs....once elected they just went ahead and voted for it.
another one is Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Senate. He ran literally against the bail outs and won in a fairly narrow victory....on a host of Populist issues...
What has he done? Vote right down that corporate DLC party line....
I linked to it here.
I never said that we would top out at 10% unemployment. Only that we would hit that level by September.
Where it tops out depends on if there is a 2nd economic shock in this Depression. If we avoid the 2nd shock then we should top out somewhere between 10.5% and 12%.
But if there is a 2nd shock then the sky is the limit.
Instapopulist on GAO June TARP,
the projected losses of the 19 banks from the stress tests is listed as about $1 Trillion dollars and that was under some "conditions" such as increased unemployment past projected (true!), continued drop in home prices and sales (true!)....
From the main report (don't read the highlights, the real information is in the full report)
So, in other words, what I got out of it is the "stress tests" are all good...oops, but only under these macro economic conditions...
things go South...well, oops!
and things are going South, esp. on unemployment.
This is on p. 31, around table 6.
From reading middle's analysis, we already have unemployment > 10% in 13 states and this is from May.
Then, the charts do not show a leveling, the slope looks like a bottle rocket.
There was a stat showing people exhausting their benefits (rolling off) without a job somewhere but I cannot find it now...
i.e. it doesn't look like a 10% national peak in July is going to be the max. and by most estimates, unemployment is exceeding what is projected...
at least on #6.
If Republicans can still believe that Bush was a good president, then people on DKos can still believe that the stimulus worked.
At the same time I noticed this today.
#5 might also be a reach, simply because it is hard to time those things. I'm positive it will happen, but I shouldn't be so certain of when it will happen.
Senator McCaskill is a hypocrite and a liar. She ended up voting for the bailout bill:
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/14732
To the point that if I do get my hours cut back, I'll be going to my local neighborhood association meeting and promoting replacing landscaping with edibles.
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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
Bonddad presented a simple graphic a year or so ago that showed the relationships of business, consumers and financial institutions. All must function for a stabile economy. When the major institutions that provide the financial services required for a functioning economy were faced with imminent collapse (due entirely to their own malfeasance) most of our political establishment panicked and bailed them out.
What was not brought forth at that time or since was that what had to be saved were not the institutions themselves but the functions they provided to the economy as a whole. The Federal Reserve did step in to facilitate the commercial paper market which reinforces the contention that the institutions were unnecessary. Thus AIG should have failed and have been broken into its solvent regulated insurance side and its insolvent unregulated CDS side. Federal monies would not have gone to Goldman or other institutions and had these failed their functions would have been broken up, sold to solvent institutions or taken over by the Government. Their toxic assets would have been sold in an orderly fashion for their market prices or maintained and backed by the Government if they were held behind deposits (money market funds for example). The stockholders, bondholders and executives would have eaten the losses. Fannie and Freddy had to be nationalized and, at some cost, could have continued facilitating the mortgage markets. Thus functions would be maintained and the bad apples culled just as when the FDIC closes a bank.
At least as to number 6.
I can see an S&P 500 correction, easily. No problem there.
Agree re USD rally (I'm taking the opposite side of Bill Gross's public remarks).
If there is a stock market correction, bond yields will go down as a "flight to safety"
Unemployment will be 10%+ by July.
European currency crisis -- no idea.
Finally, I'll side with the Conference Board, the Fed's leading index, Paul Krugman, and ECRI specifically as follows:
The ECRI's data covers 100 years, and it has already published that the sole time this index failed to accurately forecast GDP growth was 1931, and unlike now, in 1931 its "long leading index" forecast a further downturn.
This is what happened during the GD too. State and local government was forced to cut way back on spending and employment, and was only partially offset by the increase in federal spending.
because the initial aspects, short-term, of the stimulus focused on tax cuts. The bulk of the true stimulus won't be felt until 2010. Those tax cuts could be going to savings instead of consumption.
But, and Robert made this point earlier, what impact is the states fiscal problems having on the effectiveness of the stimulus. States are cutting spending and raising taxes.
this simply does not have to be, not at all.
Senator Grassley is being rewarded for his vote against the Cram Down bill.
Count me among the Brown Weeds, but don't mistake me for being a perma-bear. For instance, I went very long in equities in March. I knew the rally would have legs and I rode it to a handsome profit.
As of the beginning of June I went into cash and I'm going to stay there for a while. The equity rally is over. The Green Shoots are going to turn brown this summer.
Consider these my predictions for September:
1) The SPX drops back to around 800
2) The USD posts a bear-market rally to at least 84
3) The TNX drops to around 31
4) Unemployment goes over 10%
5) A currency crisis somewhere in Europe
6) Even the people on DKos will acknowledge that the stimulus isn't working
Call me out on it in 2+ months if I'm wrong.
We, consumers, drive the economy. If we continue to de-leverage we will not see any real growth (greater than 2%) for a very long time. It is a good thing that we rebuild our balance sheets but it will be painful. Prof. Edmund Phelps thinks it will take at least 15 years to rebuild wealth.
First time I call NC make a mistake but contrary to their statement some of this information came out the 11th (this is true), the World Bank today issued a horrific report, which I went through and pulled out a few stats and 1 questionable on in the Instapopulist.
There seems to be almost a war going on right now between the "green shoots" analysts and others who are "brown weeds".
My conclusion is actually that we've hit a bottom, but we're just gonna stay there.
Nice quote. I'm thinking some history on "jobless" recoveries vs. wage repression and how that affects the other EIs, the macro economic data is in order.
It is real pain but I also have a hypothesis that it's the "tipping point" to bring the entire economy down.
I think there is only so much squeezing the bone dry of the middle class and it's exceeded, yet unemployment is still categorized as "just a lagging indicator" and not weighted or the implications of this debacle not realized on the overall economic health.
In other words, my hypothesis is: when you screw the middle class you screw the country.
on economics blogs. While I believe most of us writing actually do have significant backgrounds in economics and education that we can "self teach" and are insightful, there is a sort of ivory tower mentality to give a site credibility.
My stance is content not labels on most things. But that requires one has the ability to be a critical reader to really stand by that philosophy.
So, in other words, just keep building up your writing and insights, analysis because while I have observed....repeatedly...writers on EP are "first" and often that observation is picked up by others for their own insights, we don't get the credit we deserve.
I honestly think that's because we're still relatively new in comparison to the other economics blogs but also because our educational backgrounds, our official qualifications are titled something else.
I think that' ridiculous for engineering especially has a slew of skills that can be adapted for examining economic data but honestly anyone with basic mathematics can start learning, digging around in econ. Plus, some of this stuff, well, you have to be brain dead to not see the analysis flaws. Public relations on caca can only go so far!
I'm not saying we're all Simon Johnson, Stiglitz or Paul Krugman etc. here, but I have observed the pattern your reference implies repeatedly now.
Then some people's backgrounds actually do rival some of these other people, but no one on EP really flashes their "stats"...which I like, just focus in on the topic at hand.
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