– by New Deal democrat The current economic cycle has not just, as I explained yesterday, busted the infallibility of the inverted yield curve as an indicator, it has also blown up Prof. Edward Leamer’s theory “housing *is* the economic cycle.” But while no metric is perfect, it remains the case that housing is an […]

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Charles Gaba is addressing fraud in the ACA healthcare program. Fraud meaning false claims, not being eligible, fake income, etc. You name it, probably this has been done in some manner. But is it a problem? This time the isue is: “35% of the people have never used their ACA (Obamacare accounts). I can understand […]

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My concern with AI companies’ current attempts to mitigate misalignment is that these efforts may only hide it, by rewarding and selecting the AIs that cheat without getting caught. We should certainly continue research toward better monitoring of AIs’ actions, their chains of thought, and the activity inside their networks. But as capabilities grow, those […]

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I’ll admit up front that I’ve always considered William F. Buckley Jr a pretentious gasbag. I recently finished reading “Buckley: The life and the revolution that changed America” by Sam Tanenhaus. I found little in this long and detailed biography to change my mind. Don’t get me wrong: I enjoyed this book. And I learned […]

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 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s other economic report was the JOLTS labor market report for August. This parses turnover in the market by hires, layoffs, and quits, among other things. It is a minor indicator, but let’s take a look. The first graph below shows the “soft statistic” of job openings (blue), actual […]

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What appears this article is stating it is easier at this point in time to find a non-technical job (not requiring degree) than it is finding a job requiring a degree. I am thinking back to 1974 (if I am correct). That was about the time I received a BA with a minor in math. […]

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– Book Review by The one-handed economist This 2018 book by Norwegian Tore Skeie tells the history of the “Vikings” (a 19th century word for a group of people who did not identify with each other; its older use was as a verb: “to vik” meaning to raid) around 1000CE. It’s based primarily on the […]

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I’m not a fan of using social safety nets as a tool to flog the less fortunate. But I’ve always known that attacking social programs is a dog whistle for racism. Looks like nobody told Sarah Huckabee Sanders. “Media commentators in the MAGA movement shredded Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Monday over a new […]

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 – by New Deal democrat No big economic data today. So let’s take a look at a significant forecasting tool. Some leading indicators are very good. But none is infallible. And the last few years have slain one of the most-touted for infallibility: the inverted yield curve. For those who need a brief refresher, typically […]

The post Another infallible economic indicator bites the dust: inverted yield curve edition appeared first on Angry Bear.

If we wanted to ignore this president, we can not ignore him. His actions drag us into everything done by him. Iran is not an unusual event for him. Did we have to go there and attack. There was little no reason to do so. “the war was not, at least at first, about the […]

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Brief look at immigration and how immigration impacts the US economy. A lot of paranoia (much of which is emanating from Washington D.C, by our leader will create future labor shortages. Two more years . . . EconoFact “two-thirds of agricultural workers are non-citizen immigrants. Immigrant workers also often work in jobs that complement, rather […]

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“Kissinger and Nixon went to Peking like barbarians approaching the Manchu emperors. They set a pattern of deference bordering on obsequiousness which has run through Western approaches to China ever since.” ~William F. Buckley, Jr. As William Faulkner wrote, the past isn’t dead, it isn’t even past.

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