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California to be bankrupt in 10 days
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BREAKING: Wall Street Mega-Merger!!!
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Apologies, CNN fixation on non-economic stories is perfectly correlated to poor economic news, thus "1" and not "-1." I don't want to be accused of being an idiot unemployable "basket weaving major" by Rush or govt. official.
1) Median campaign contribution by industry (and top companies) vs. profits and taxes actually paid to USG
2) Political contributions by industry vs. # of legislative bills created for that industry (I'd start with Silicon Valley and H-1B visas, Bill "FoxNews just quoted me as saying I cannot find any qualified Americans with 22% unemployment so we need more foreigners to take jobs" Gates, and others like Koch Bros. violating Iran sanctions within last decade (per Bloomberg Media) and deadly pipeline accidents through violations
3) Educational backgrounds of politicians over time vs. those of general background ('dem really smart politicians know what's best for me and mine - all my book learnin' is useless when compared to whores on the public and bankster dole)
4) Educational backgrounds of those espousing more training and education vs. those in general population who are unemployed (you know, Rush Limbaugh repeated college dropout and Hannity bashing the unemployed as losers who only know "basket weaving" and "art history" vs. Americans with BSs, PhD, MSs, etc. who are overqualified and unemployable)
5) Number of crimes committed by 1%ers like Dimon, Corzine (insider trading, market manipulation, raiding segregated funds, grand larceny, wire fraud, securities fraud) and Murdoch (FCPA, phone hacking, criminal conspiracy) that go uncharged vs. political contributions by said uncharged criminals (er, "best and brightest job creators").
6) Number of times CNN fixates on a certain non-economic story (e.g., shooting in Florida, Snooky leaving "Jersey Shore") correlated to poor economic news (-1 perfect inverse correlation I'm guessing)
Just some thoughts, I'm sure the DOJ, WH, Congress, FoxNews, CNN, and everyone else will willingly provide such information without much prodding - nothing to hide after all, nothing at all to hide.
Kurtz
I reprinted the ones I found useful. Well, well, now I am glad I amplified what median and mean means.
It's not the median that has outliers it's the mean or average that can skew the result.
Unless of course one wants to dismiss half of America is basically poor. Additionally the report breaks down a host of data by 5ths and 10ths, in other words by demographic brackets. There too are declines. I pulled a series of quotes showing some which really stuck out on income and a few on net worth.
So removing the top 20% and the bottom 20% still doesn't eradicate the decimation of the middle class, that's really the most damning and what this Fed report shows.
Sure try giving a link to this post on Felix Simon's blog, we'd appreciate it.
We link to the actual government report almost always in the 1st paragraph. This report is dense, since it's using quite a mix of population demographics to show their various economic states by 2010. The report is difficult to read, dense, which is another reason we amplify some of the more incredible statistical results and use words such as screwed to explain.
Anyway, we see a lot in the press getting it wrong or not explaining enough details to say why this report should raise alarm bells for the U.S. middle class and U.S. worker.
We do make a lot of original charts here, but I didn't see the data released with the report, separate, in database form, except for extrapolating out table data from a pdf, which is a big pain, so we used the report table and charts.
Great charts!
Over at Reuters' Felix Salmon Blog on this topic, a commenter "Robert" wrote
"I don’t like seeing median – it’s too susceptible to outliers. I’d like to see the middle 80% of historical data."
I wanted to route him to this site but being computer challenged I can't figure out how to get a comment in.
Perhaps someone might help Robert.
Tom
I agree with your criticisms of the lecture, but overall, he does accurately describe some of the mechanics of why things are imploding. It's the best lecture I have found, from an economics/technical view point.
I also saw what you mean, that deficit mentality, low inflation, cut spending, all "free" trade is "good", labor/workers are an afterthought as if they live on air and so on orthodoxy, but that said, the technicals are well explained and accurate.
Well...I watched this all the way through and was troubled by two false statements by St. Louis Federal Reserve Research Director Christopher Waller:
1] CDS's are "simple" and are the "same as insurance". This is a false statement for the following reasons;
a) Insurance is a highly regulated business...much like banking, the need for offsetting collateral in insurance is a FUNDAMENTAL REQUIREMENT. Apparently, Walker is still unaware of the AIG bailout by the US Government, his ignorance of current events is breathtaking.
b) With a CDS you may insure that which do not own, or have an interest in...in fact, you may insure that which you wish to see fail. Anybody attempting this with insurance is a criminal suspect.
2] The under the monetary union "Germany's has not benefited from increased exports, because Greece may now default. The Euro made German products much, much cheaper than they would otherwise be, the same as China "pegging" [pun intended] their currency to the USD. Prior to the Euro, Germans sold Mercedes in Greece by using German banks to provide credit and direct German Government subsidies, now the cost of German mercantilism is spread across all EU members...which is a great deal...for Germany. Christopher Waller's ignorance of previous German exporting practice, whether affected or real is deeply troubling and indicative of either an ideological bent, or a lack of education. Is this guy aware that China pegs it's currency to the USD? Germany's EU advantage would be similar to China coercing India, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea into chipping in when the China buys US treasuries.
While some of what Christopher Waller said was true, it was so couched in "Friedmanesque" ideology, that I would be very suspect of the man. I would not recommend listening to St. Louis Federal Reserve Research Director Christopher Waller, nor any solutions he may offer.
This was so obviously planned. This is what happens when you plan a race to the bottom by corporate boardrooms that take lessons from the Gilded Age (yeah, 100 years ago, and something great Americans like Mark Twain railed against 100 years ago - too bad corporate education and MSM didn't stop me from reading such luminaries before they grabbed control of everything). But unlike the Gilded Age, corporate CEOs nowadays demand workers work for free in BS "internships."
People without jobs get poorer. No income, they tap into savings to stay alive. People who are unemployed are deemed "unemployable" by corporations, the govt., and the media. The unemployed are told to pay for all their own training which makes no difference as far as getting a job, but makes them even POORER! So now people become more desperate. Corporate-owned media says, "The new normal is contractors that companies can cut loose after a few months with no benefits during the contract and no unemployment or benies." But that's applauded by the media. Also, internships that literally pay NOTHING are now rampant in private firms and the US GOVT. for people with advanced degrees (US Attorneys' Offices across the USA now "hire" attorneys for free for one year stints), so don't plan on the USG caring about slave wages or no wages.
So, no jobs for most Americans, jobs that do pay pay complete crap, Americans are told to work for free, and income drops?! SHOCKING! Is this how American communities were built in the past? Can Americans marry, and have kids, and buy a crap car, and maybe rent a two-bedroom apt. or maybe plan on staying in a town for more than 5 years when they are earning $8/hr. with a BS and PhD in engineering and $100,000 in loans? Is this the American Dream?
How I long for Pakistani work conditions, if only I wasn't too old by 20+ years to make soccer balls and Nike shoes. Maybe one day Fox and CNN and Forbes and Gingrich and the corporate-owned govt. can tell me it's good when an American child makes soccer balls instead of school, after all, that book learning may have been a vision of our Founding Fathers' but who needs it now when the corporate piggies tell us what's best and the govt. goes along with everything their masters want.
-Kurtz
I don't think anything I said here contradicts that. In fact, I think the lecture talk I point to amplifies that problem of differing economies w/n the EU yet membership allowed, falsely, bond yields to converge. It also mentions the inability to "inflate one's way out of" sovereign debt by printing money.
I'm also pointing to a couple of solutions not mentioned in the lecture. You have to watch the lecture, to get the meat of this article.
That said, the ECB did inject €1 trillion in December 2011 and does control the money supply for Euros.
A fiscal union means even less sovereignty. That's tax, spend, budget policies dictated by the European Union instead of countries. Supposedly it's "on the table" with various countries saying there needs to be a contingency plan for failures before consideration at the moment.
That's another thing in the lecture mentioned, uh, where was the exit plan to kick out a bad actor nation from the European Union. There isn't one, which is another reason why Greece has been such a @$(* up.
Currency floats against each other, i.e. killing the Euro, considering Germany is the big fat exporter, I'll bet Germany won't go for that one worth a damn.
As far as actual sovereign debt goes, I'm just mentioning it as being out of control and due to bond yields, and unfortunately CDSes and such, tsunami waves. Sometimes those neocon/neoliberals use real facts and I use them facts too, but it sure doesn't mean solutions, such as draconian austerity is something I imply is good juju. I'm all for banning CDSes, yes sovereign CDSes Hedge Fund/GS apologists, hair cuts and defaults, nationalization, hit the reset button, direct job programs which will give the most bang for the buck in terms of economic growth and such.
Ya wanna talk about trade flows between EU member states, and one currency as being a problem, increasing imbalances, we're all ears on that score here too.
I can't watch the vids, but Robert Oak's comments are way off base (and I say that as someone who usually appreciate's Mr. Oak's posts).
The EU countries surrendered their monetary sovereignty. They surrendered the right to print their own currency. They surrendered the right set their own interest rates. They surrendered their right to have a currency that floats relative to their trading partners, to compensate for trade imbalances. They surrendered their right to determine their own budget.
The EU was DESIGNED TO FAIL.
There are 2 possible fixes. 1) form a fiscal union similar to the US or 2) exit the EU and let each country print its own fiat currency, have its own central bank, set its own interest rates, determine its own budget, and let its currency float to compensate for trade imbalances.
All this talk of deficits is very misleading. A monetarily sovereign country can pay any debt, a non-monetarily sovereign country cannot. That's the real issue.
Those unemployment rates are the latest OECD data available and harmonized across EU member states. I believe Spain announced a 24.1% unemployment rate by country, March 2012.
I should have stated those rates are harmonized in order to compare against other countries as well as the U.S.
The U.S. compares to harmonized rates about 1% below what it would be if measured via the OECD methods.
These are "official" unemployment rates. See this post for our own alternative unemployment rate (calculated from the monthly BLS figures).
In other words, as bad off as we are, Spain is a disaster, basically everybody is out of a job, same as Greece. In other words, while we can make a case for a 20% unemployment rate in the U.S., making the same argument for Spain is going to be close to the upper bound of 50%.
Mexico is one of the worst for disparity between official unemployment rates and reality on the ground.
I believe the bail out buzz lasted less than 5 hours for the stock market critters.
Our data is limited by Congress is two ways, one they won't fund larger samplings and additional data points (we need immigration status of the labor force for one), and two they won't change the methods.
The BLS itself is just a bunch of statistical geek people. The data is limited, the error rate too large, it's not a planned "they are lying to us". Congress and this administration, including the Commerce Dept. and the DOL on the other hand....well....
but the statistics people are truly just doing their statistics groove thing for the most part.
Anybody waiting for the Chinese revolution better look at that country's sense of patriotism, loyalty as a general rule.
Right, if one assumes one needs annual 2% GDP growth just to maintain, calling this a "recovery" is insulting. Even more insulting is global labor arbitrage and acting like it's not a problem for American workers. Clearly it is, clearly the U.S. worker is being discarded like a disposable diaper by these MNCs.
When I can get to it, I'll go dig around. There should be a breakdown of each countries GDP components, similar to the U.S. see GDP here, where I can then calculate out the percentages. But I've got to do some data dumpster diving to find it. Not all government spending is bad and depending how the country is structured, i.e. mixed economies, government allowed to invest in state enterprises which generate revenues and such.
Just mentioning this because the political rancor wants to characterize governments as "bad". Not true from a macro economic view.
On CA, I hate to say this, but illegal immigration costs that state something like $11 billion a year. They ain't even acknowledging that statistic, but bottom line CA is the "U.S. Greece" as is IL.
But if I can't get to it, I'd start with the inane OECD databases.
This trainwreck of a global economy just needs to crash already (or are we still in the crash, I don't know, there never was a recovery for 99.9% of us).
The Spanish bailout jacked up the markets for less than 24 hours, so now all the PR and printing $ in the world isn't fooling anyone. Try agaim, and again, and again, just proves how stupid and futile it all is while creating more debt burdens and austerity for the non-banksters and non-EU bureaucrats and politicians.
The sad thing is the article talks about European unemployment rates. Ours is just as bad (22%+), it's just that we don't have people lining up like we did in the '30s because of the advent of the Internet, cash cards, SNAP cards, etc. We also have a better propaganda machine brought to you by the BLS, MSM, the White House, and Congress (both parties don't want the full-blown crisis known because they would actually fear street violence after years of economic oppression). We are experiencing the same Euro and Eurozone economic nighmare ("we" meaning the non-banksters, the banksters are kicking it in the Hamptons, thank you), no amount of blue Atlantic can fix that.
Meanwhile, China is hoping its property bubble brought by Foxconn and other "American" companies doesn't pop too soon because those folks truly know revolution, angry mobs, and dunce caps (literally!).
CA is implementing austerity, even though nobody is saying it, measures now to balance the budget. Which got me to thinking about why austerity in Europe has such an effect on the GDP of the respective countries. What percent of the economies is government of the countries you mention? I can find GDP, but not the government budget. I would like to see how it compares to us(a).
Clayton
That's not good folks. The barometer of weather for Spain is pointing to more bail out.
Agreed. Democrats jawbone about their support for workers and unions when they need people to march with signs and bull horns and create chaos (e.g. SEIU disrupting healthcare bill town hall meetings). But when it came time to vote for the mining bill this spring (those of you not from WI - GO LOOK IT UP) and pony up some jobs in the northern half of the state, where were all the Democrats? ALL of them save one in the legislature voted AGAINST it. The trade unions took notice of this slap in the face, a story largely ignored outside of WI. Please, don't confuse trade unions with public employee unions.
Yes, as a former recruiter, I have seen this problem. Consider this: part of the "problem" when senior execs claim there are not enough qualified applicants is that they really mean, "there are not enough qualified applicants at the lower salary and benefit levels we would prefer to pay." Lots of 50-somethings trying to get into jobs intended for 30-somethings from a pay perspective. Age can easily be inferred from education dates, job history. Experience, knowledge not as important as cost. Also, the qualified applicant claim is a convenient way of not having to discuss uncomfortable issues about a stagnant economy (uncertainty in policies, regulation, capital availability, etc.).
Now the reports are pouring in on how eventually this will be on the backs of Spanish citizens. Many are pointing to the European stock market open. We'll probably write another article as the dust settles and the real terms, consequences become evident. All we have know are press releases.
EP comments not only have their own RSS feed, they go out on twitter and now I know why we set it up that way!
As far as DC and state capitals and politicians, let's just save newspaper space and blog space and say, "All politicians are narcissistic whores that self-promote and sell out to the highest bidder . . . despite claiming the exact opposite. . . And this holds true for every politician in D & R and every other party in every country." FULL STOP. Repeat until the end of the Republic.
As far as HP, as Dave Chapelle would say, SKILLS SHORTAGE BITCHES! I'm laying off every American with a PhD, BS, or MA that understands 1-99 languages, from 25-99 years old, and will program my employment software to deny anyone based in the USA and will only accept H-1B visa applicants (and for the really low wage jobs, I will accept immigrants from south of the border). Hey, when you don't want to find qualified Americans no matter what and you make $20 million/year based on that, something tells me you won't, no matter how hard reality wants to slap you in the face daily.
Robespierre? Robespierre? Are you in DC or Silicon Valley or Wall Street? Robespierre? Where art thou?
Here, the big task is when to bother to write about the latest press release. I want defaults, massive haircuts, kind of a stop, ban a host of derivatives, cancel the contracts and then restart, similar to how FDR shut down the banks, enacted a host of laws and the re-opened them.
Fundamentally we have nation-states taking on insolvent banks and their debts, which in turn makes them run to insolvency, all the while sucking the life blood out of various economies and ballooning deficits as a result.
Germany's economy is treading water, with ~ 1% annual GDP growth, projected for 2012/2013. In the U.S. we need about 2.0% annual real GDP just to "keep up", to "maintain", I'd claim, it's definitely not zero, so I suspect the 1% GDP of Germany really implies stagnant.
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