The Economic Populist
Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Most Popular
User login
Recent comments
Poll
The Golden Rule
- 1826130 reads
Will the NY Attorney General Bring Doomsday Charges Against Wall Street? If So, How Long Will He Survive?
- 1216022 reads
New York Post Claims Census Falsifies Unemployment Figures
- 949153 reads
How Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population Growth?
- 361610 reads
VAT or Value Added Tax is Getting a Look in D.C.
- 345176 reads
U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression
- 320798 reads
The war on the middle class
- 314796 reads
House discusses 401k/IRA confiscation
- 313951 reads
Tax Cuts for the Rich Do Not Generate Jobs
- 279580 reads
.
I have said prices are out of alignment with income, so beyond the obvious divergence in your graphs, I don't see how they cannot fall further either.
That's going to hurt badly, more underwater, more negative equity and so on, but where do they believe someone who is getting wage squeezed, their jobs cut, age discrimination and the rest can possibly afford even a $1k mortgage payment? It's out of alignment with the U.S. middle class income squeeze.
Are you charging for a host of econ. analysis charts and so on?
If so, I cannot blame you, even with some nicely configured excel files, takes 15 minutes to do each graph.
(Speaking of workin' 4 free!)
No matter what the Fed does with quantitative easing II, one thing is clear - house prices will follow home sales down. I don't know how they are going to resolve that. I charted Home Prices vs Home Sales data, and the bounce back in sales was thing keeping house prices steady. Here is that chart:
http://www.hiddenlevers.com/hl/u?9w0ouj
As the "Ohio resident who asked a called center employee where the operation was," I can tell you the reason for the call was due to FCCS using an offshore company. Most of the time, when a company uses direct pay, the money is turned around and given to the person it is owed to. Not so with child support. The money was taking out of my ex's account and it took over TEN DAYS to get into my account. They gave me the run around, especially when I pointed out that they could sit on the money and collect interest off of it. Ohio is NOT the only state to use this agency.
I've got something that I just cannot get to writing. I hope others would consider writing some posts this week.
I don't buy that bubble argument. A buyer of US treasuries is exposed to 2 risks: interest rate and inflation. There's no solvency risk. Now if the buyer intends to speculate with bonds he certainly is exposed to loose money if the interest and/or inflation changes. Happened to all the shorts on US treasuries at the start of the year. But if the buyer considers treasuries as a safe heaven for his savings he will only loose money in the form of opportunity costs. He can protect himself against inflation (TIPS) and hold the treasuries until they mature. Thus he gets his fixed income stream from the coupon and the principal on maturity.
PS: I missed the Friday movie night?!
Oil demand/prices over the next decade will to a large degree be driven by emerging economy demand at the margin. Here is another thought experiment using Chinese demand to generate some rough back of the envelope forecasts:
- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year over the next 30 years
- No peak in global production
Result: In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD - 26 million BOPD to maintain supply and 18 million BOPD to keep up with demand increases.
If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years - most likely something would give far before that price level:
- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD
- Current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%
If you want to try the china oil demand or the peak oil models for yourself using your own assumptions they can be found at Enquirica in the "Research" section: http://www.enquirica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11...
While there is no doubt in my mind banks and brokers commit financial fraud on a regular basis, bidding up an equity or selling shares of an equity in order to liquidate does not "destabilize the economy", nor should it be illegal. People with deep pockets and large positions will undoubtedly move markets more than others but that could be said regarding just about everything--it doesnt make it fraud.
isn't that the bottom line herd mentality? Another bubble is every single VC investment must have a "China strategy". A few years ago VCs demanded, yes demanded, part of the R&D team be offshore outsourced to India...in order to obtain funding.
Does that even make any sense in a fast moving startup to require a small design team be half way around the world?
I recall something from the 1920's about large investors hyping a stock or market, after they had bought in, to get the smaller investors to buy in at which point they sold and left them hanging.
.xlxs
What's the secret to reading the Excel data? I can't figure out how to extract it from the XML. Thanks.
We have been trying to get our loan modified since last 2 and 1/2 years. No luck yet...Paid $2500 to attornies, mothing happened. After trying for twoand 1/2 years, and draining out our savings, now we are one month behind and BOA calls us every other day to pay the payment. Hope team is still telling us that our file is under review.........
While the Philadelphia Fed did something great, they finally asked how much production is being offshore outsourced, we should make it mandatory that the NY Fed, via the empire state survey, most importantly the production & capacity report from the Fed should require offshore outsourced, global activities from U.S. businesses be reported, monitored and included in these reports.
I'm not alone in picking up on the Philly Fed's special questions on offshore outsourcing.
The AAM did and wrote a call out on the latest hype of rural sourcing or that somehow these jobs are coming back.
They will not come back unless the U.S. government forces them back, along with a host of carrots and sticks, such as tax penalties and incentives, as well as trade policy modifications, even a payroll holiday, to force businesses to produce, manufacture here in the U.S.
Good for the Philly Fed for asking the obvious.
I first suggested this series last January. That said, if you haven't seen this it's one of the definitive documentaries on the Great Depression and it's exceptional.
There is a lot of talk, both left and right, about the upcoming "Greater" Depression in 2012, so a "rerun" seemed appropriate. Notice how most politicians are not offering any of the solutions proved to work by the FDR administration.
Many of the tech companies were bringing in cheap labor via H1B visas and other guest worker visas while simultaneously laying off US STEM workers.
yes, and a lot of those techies never got actual full time work again -- they became 1099 employees, therefore ineligible for unemployment and not showing up in statistics anywhere.
I know a host of people in technical fields who already wiped out their 401ks and so on starting in the dot con crash.
I am a Union Ironworker, although we cannot withdraw anything from our pension this spring I recieved a letter saying we could withdraw money from our annuity account to help pay for bills and from what I gather there is a lot of guys doing this. Personally I think our annuity is the only retirement that is a sure bet anymore,our pension through the stock market of some sort and from what I am seeing wont be there long.The past three contract talks any raises were gobbled up by our pension.My red flag was the Dot Com bubble collapse and woke me up to the same thing happening across all facets of retirement packages.When oh when will the American citizen going to wake up and take back our country.Frank Rutherford
Everybody blasts Lou Dobbs but I miss that show. He would have been talking about outsourcing, guest worker Visas and illegal immigration, jobs.
Leo Leopold has a great top 5 excuses for not creating jobs list over a HuffPo.
I completely agree with the problems of salaried workers these days. Theoretically this system should work by being paid to complete a task, rather than how many hours you are at the office. If this system worked this way, it wouldn't matter if you spend 10 hours or 40 hours to finish an assignment. Unfortunately, many business's use this model of pay as way to overwork their employees with no forms of compensation. I have worked under both models and I will take hourly pay over salaried any day.
Pages