Every time we confront the mirage of the Visa worker numbers (2.1 Million in 20 years), the actual numbers on a yearly basis suddenly get collapsed to small 15K to 65K numbers because of how DHS simply pulls off the caps. I took a look at IBM's LCA and it is unbelievably small this year. This mirage is explained by the offshore subsidiaries.
Conveniently, IBM India is an LLC. There is a precaution taken against someone with litigation notions.
Starting in 1925, there was almost no immigration into the U.S. until the late 1960s. After recovery from what we know to be the manufacturing and agricultural collapse of 1926 to 1941, the nation went on an unprecedented expansion with virtually no immigration for 25 years. Big Labor Shortages for 25 years to great advantage.
Again, no immigration for 40 years and unprecedented prosperity. 40 Years of Open Borders from 1965 to 2005 and the result is economic collapse.
Krugman is claiming we are in the Third Depression already. What is clear is that there is almost no time left and no will or knowledge to prevent a Third Depression.
I believe Columbia and Peru(?) are also pending for free trade agreements.
All of these agreements started with Bush and Obama is following through.
I can't understand how we can have free and equitable trade with countries that have no labor standards - have little to no military expenditures because we are the worlds police force and have a much worse standard of living. Its impossible for trade to be equitable. Those agreements, especially NAFTA kill jobs here, force people into lower paying jobs and in the end game force people to shop at WalMart.
We have a lot of special interests saying it's so, but even in the so called Progressive wing, you have a lot of people aware of global labor arbitrage, so they have limits on things like guest worker Visas, others know one must control one's immigration policy, set limits...it ranges all over the place in position in reality.
It's more the corporate agenda, especially to "trade workers".
I think Obama is like an extension of the Bush administration too. We get a few tweaks on the side it seems only.
I linked to the bail out tracker that CNN has and I've seen the same number on other news sites tracking the bail out. That's the total tally for the Federal Reserve. That's not losses, that's what's laid out there. Sanders, Gregg are probably talking about a part of it, it's $1.25 trillion in MBS.
I need a link to show CDSes alone were for that's not a number I have seen.
Tax credits and people whose jobs have been spared (public sector) or who are getting a weekly check from unemployment are priming the pump and making the economy look better.
It seems disingenuous to say we need to continue these programs on one hand then turn around and say these programs which are all deficit spending have nothing to do with the gdp.
"if just currency manipulation was stopped, not even all of the other trade abuses....it could correct the trade imbalance with China."
Wow! I guess this shouldn't surprise any of us, but it's still shocking. So do you happen to know which of those links over on the left would be the best place to see the research supporting this?
The next big push is the Korean Free Trade Agreement. This makes the Obama Administration almost officially Republican. We have a $66 Billion Stimulus without contracts, Weak to Non-Existent Financial Reform, the HealthScare Plan which cuts Medicare in 2014.
On Immigration, Obama is a Neo-Con but not a libertarian Republican. So, Obama is a Democrat on social issues.
The numbers on the U.S. International accounts show the combined CDS losses for 2008 and 2009. These were the international defaults.
The losses were securitized by Fed money, loans, Treasuries. There were just more liabilities than assets. The assets are just a plug on the U.S. accounts - $6.4 Trillion.
Besides you, me, who is saying $6.4 Trillion? I keep hearing the $2.07 Trillion from Sen. Gregg and Sen. Sanders.
"Now Romania is trying to convince the IMF to bail them out anyway" ...: you make it look like the all-mighty hero IMF needs to be begged and convinced by a profligate Romania to bail it out...try this: after 500,000 Romanians died in the WWII to defend Europe, Romania was sacrificed and was given as a gift to Russia by the Westerners, with America's blessing. The intelectuals and middle class killed in concentration camps, Soviet style. My grandfather used to tell me stories about how the partisans fought in the mountains for liberty until the Americans sold them arms, but when they got them, there were no bullets!!! no help form the "free world" that we fought to save. 45 years of communism later, still alive after living on rationalized food, half a loaf of bread a week, no hot water, no heat, finally the western world has mercy of us and the "revolution" happens! We didn't have any foreign debt. Now, 20 years later, we are capitalists, all our national riches have been squandered by "foreign investors" , the economy distroyed, and Halliburton built...2 miles of highway for 25 billion dollars (USD!), overpaying Russians for natural gas and disobedience, we have finally found out that Europe didn't need us free, they just needed 24 millions more slaves, good only to buy their "junk" food, Coca Cola, and some hundreds to die in Afganistan. Yeah, right, the austerity doesn't go - NO MORE- well in Romania, thank you very much!!! IMF is temporarily "saving" Romania (or should I say our national corpse), so that the government could pay the private banking cartels and the 50% interest rates.
I won't touch those demographics on regional economies frankly because I just cannot locate enough statistics, evidence on what's really going on.
Good question. I think they were trying to bail out the states but the GOP blocked them and I truly believe it's due to those corporate tax code changes to remove the tax advantages to offshore outsource your job.
CA is a huge percentage of US GDP, it's like a country within a country.
Frankly I blew off tracking the real effects on "Stimulus" because the White House issues such spin. I clearly is having some effect but I frankly don't think that much in jobs. They plain did not "do it right", bottom line. They literally gave contracts to companies overseas for new "green technologies". What kind of Stimulus for a domestic economy is that? It's anti-stimulus.
Spending will be stimulative but that's not the "bang for the buck". Like Steven has his jobs guarantee idea but it's too vague for me. One could literally design such a thing to destroy what's left of the U.S. workforce. On the other hand, one could design such a thing to save the U.S. workforce too.
Same thing with "Stimulus", one can just "spend" or one can craft a truly, bang for the buck, generate the largest job growth possible plan.
Notice the government absolutely refuses to deal with canceling Federal and State contracts currently offshored. They refuse to repeal tax subsidies to companies who offshore outsource jobs, such as IBM. They refuse to put a moratorium on immigration and of course they refuse to deal with illegal workers.
None of this requires a bill through Congress. It's existing law and contract terms. Ex. IBM got a host of State, local contracts on the promise to create regional jobs. They did not. In fact they offshore outsourced more jobs. Therefore those states should demand their money back and cancel those contracts due to a major contract violation by IBM and award them to companies who will hire U.S. workers.
They don't do a damn thing on this score, that's city, county, state and federal governments.
Another example is security clearances. There are a host of U.S. tech jobs which require those but it's so much a bureaucracy, companies want people who already have them and the gov. won't speed up the process or change it to get them. It's ridiculous. They have metrics such as credit score instead of important things like, ...uh, do you sympathize with other nation's and their interests? Ever get busted for cheating in school? Cheat on your taxes, cheat on your spouse? The types of things which would imply one of low moral character and a risk to national security. It's not if someone smoked pot 20 years ago or couldn't pay their bills because they are broke.
You'll hear all sorts of spin but the reality is offshore outsourcing and use of foreigners to displace U.S. workers are duals of each other. What difference does it make if that worker is sitting in Bangalore or Cincinnati? The same U.S. worker lost their job and was displaced. Notice I'm making a differentiation between worker substitution and other forms of work. It's direct worker substitution or when wages are repressed due to oversupply that is the concern and this also is predicted by labor econ equations. Some try to make substitution coefficients zero, which is an absolute falsehood, by the statistics alone, or try to ignore, negate a host of costs and so on....
but worker substitution is going on. If the U.S. government wanted to quickly create some jobs at no cost, this is one area to act. Of course they will not due to politics and ignore the labor economics theory or statistical realities.
Last tally I've got is $6.4 trillion just the Federal Reserve, but that isn't all CDSes. I'm actually not sure of just the CDS tally.
It's $1.25 trillion for MBS, or mortgage backed securities that they "bought" from Fannie and Freddie, or GSE MBS. Then TALF or consumer loan backed securities is another $1 trillion. These things are CDOs and packaged up mortgages and loans in bundles with those tranches.
A CDS is an insurance bet against a CDO (as an example).
These are already unfathomable numbers. Supposedly the claim is they are "holding" these until they "go up in value" and so on.
Then zero interest rates (in effect) have allow banks to borrow and turn around, buy U.S. treasuries and make a killing off of the spread.
That is one good thing on the financial reform bill, there will be at least some audit of the Federal Reserve.
The Intertwining scenario is correct. I am doubly sure that the paranoia towards rational forms economic stimulus is due to the $6Trillion hole (undisclosed asset(s) classes) in U.S. International Accounts. Look at it in black an white in the BEA tab on the right. In 2008 and 2009, the Fed loaned $6 Trillion to international banks to cover the losses for CDS Derivatives. This is not sustainable. That said, there is plenty of money to finance stimulus from a variety of sources, TARP repayments, unspent stimulus funds, increasing M3 as small business loans.
In historical terms, there is this eerie similarity to the scandal of the French Crown Jewels in the 1780s. When the people learned the Crown Jewels were pawned anger was immediately directed to Louis XV and the Aristocracy in 1787. Louis had put France in hock to Holland, Spain for financing the American Revolution to the tune of Trillions of dollars. At home the ordinary French were starving and rioted against the grain speculators and the financiers. Major trading companies went bankrupt and Louis XV bailed out the trading companies.
But for the Aristocracy, the party just kept rolling (watch Dangerous Liasons), and the resentment against the rich just kept increasing. The reformers pleaded with the Aristocracy to return the nation to the democracy of the 1614 Constitution, and by May of 1789, all reform failed, before the June Riots and the Bastille in July of 1789.
I have read so many press reports claiming the Volcker rule is stronger, derivatives are now shuttered off, separate from banking and things that are assuredly plain wrong, all in praise of the bill.
Frankly, I think we'll need to read the actual language, but most of these reports are amazingly wrong.
Meanwhile Baseline Scenario has a great post up on how Jamie Dixon's new strategy will be to become so globally intertwined, so much larger, so much more diverse, there is no way Chase could be taken down and of course would be bailed out.
I think you are underestimating the intense corporate lobbying as well as the entire NASSCOM, BPO lobbying against those corporate tax changes. The range goes from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to Goldman Sachs to Microsoft. Believe me, that's the real reason. IBM literally has computer models on how to most effectively labor arbitrage, complete with all national tax codes as well as exchange rates.
On Keynes, please show me the formula you refer to. There are many but the one I am referring to is
and one of the assumptions is a closed private economy. From here is where multipliers originate.
Hence, my point, one must have conditions, to ensure the stimulated
w.r.t. taxes it's
But usually this implies increase in
or government spending.
small cap c in both equations is discretionary or marginal propensity to consume increase.
(AD is aggregate demand, Y is income)
My original point is that Keynesian stimulus has conditions that the values remain only within that domestic economy. There is no imports/exports in these multipliers, I'm focused on the ones just to increase income, which were used and invalidated because they did not keep things within the U.S. citizenry/domestic economy.
On the jobs guarantee program, one must have strictly enforced conditions that only U.S. citizens, perm residents could have access to that benefit, additionally tight controls on not only immigration but also jobs being offshore outsourced...
else, one opens oneself up to global labor arbitrage. These things were not an issue in 1934, no such thing existed like the Internets and work being bits in space...
but the actual equations do make these assumptions.
We can debate the different cases - whether conservative opposition is done to placate corporate donors who dislike taxes on themselves or economic security for their workers, or whether it's an ideological commitment. From the history I've read of the conservative movement (I really recommend Not Without Honor on the conservative movement in the 40s and 50s), it's both - which is to say that businesspeople both pragmatically dislike taxes, etc. but are also more likely to be ideologically predisposed to anti-tax arguments, and conservative politicians both genuinely believe and see the practical benefits of their stances.
I don't think your statements about Keynes are accurate. Keynes's simple model assumes a single, national economy, but he did have models of the economy that included transnational trade. Tax cuts are within the bounds of Keynesianism - Heller's 1963 tax cut, for example, was pure "fiscal" Keynesianism - it's just not the most effective form, and it's very different from "social" Keynesianism or institutionalism.
As for what kind of jobs projects, if you read back through the Jobs Insurance series, I have discussed this:
There is some horrific accounting by Bureau of Int'l Settlments and the Fed, most likely, New York. If you go over the accounts on the first link on the BEA tab, you can derive a balance sheet from their text descriptions over a 2 year period. I can understand why they do not publish an official balance sheet - huge transactions are off the books. I mean Trillions of dollars in 2008 and 2009. You can bet this is a good part of the 'audit the fed' story.
US International Position
Assets $Billions
2009
2008
Derivatives with Positive Fair Value
3512
6127
Reserves
440
330
SDRs
82
541
Direct Equity-Foreigner-Banks
4051
3759
Claims on Foreigners-Bank
4064
3676
Claims on Foreigners-NonBank
794
793
Direct US Owned Assets
18379
19245
US Held Foreign Securities
5471
3986
Total Assets
36793
38457
Liabilities
Foreign Held Assets of US
21117
22739
US Negative Value Derivatives
3384
5967
Foreign Official Assets
4373
3939
Foreign Held US Equities
5287
4621
Stock of Foreign Invest – Cost
2672
2521
US Currency – Foreign Held
314
301
Liabilities to Foreign Residents
3593
3382
Liabilities to Private Foreign Residents
66
665
Total Liabilities
40806
44135
Derivatives, Loans
-4013
-5678
The Last Line is a plug because of what is not shown on the asset side.
There are undisclosed assets. The liability side is greater. This means international loans are made and not disclosed.
Or other assets are just not on the balance sheet. The activity in derivatives is presented straight from the text and worked back from what BEA gives for 2008. Just look at the change in derivative valuation and you get how the bailouts
These are the private sector inventories. Please read these reports. The answers are in the statistics. A huge problem with both the MSM and the blogosphere is not looking at the numbers.
Thats a few trillion right there which is why the Fed will not raise interest rates and will turn on the printing presses once again to try and get real estate prices back to late 2006 peaks - to protect the banks before 'mark to market' hits in 2011.
Any rise in GDP has been completely fabricated by government deficit spending.
'Everything we have done in the context of this crisis has been helpful today but potentially harmful tomorrow,' he explains. 'We increased deficits, which is helpful. But it also increased debt and the risk premiums.
'With monetary policy we have opted for very, very low interest rates, which supports the economy. But it gives people no incentive to save. And if there's no saving there is no investment. this is not a recipe for progress.'
Calculated Risk is maintaining an unofficial problem bank list. list here. I just scrolled through it and you can see a host of banks specializing in commercial real estate listed.
Recall CRE mortgage crash is coming, starting at the end of this year.
Orzag, a New Democrat, quit over the absence of Stimulus, return to austerity, and KFTA. It is the Summers-Geithner axis that is in control.
The talk of Krugman for the policy role is probably wishful thinking, but a good choice.
Every time we confront the mirage of the Visa worker numbers (2.1 Million in 20 years), the actual numbers on a yearly basis suddenly get collapsed to small 15K to 65K numbers because of how DHS simply pulls off the caps. I took a look at IBM's LCA and it is unbelievably small this year. This mirage is explained by the offshore subsidiaries.
Conveniently, IBM India is an LLC. There is a precaution taken against someone with litigation notions.
Starting in 1925, there was almost no immigration into the U.S. until the late 1960s. After recovery from what we know to be the manufacturing and agricultural collapse of 1926 to 1941, the nation went on an unprecedented expansion with virtually no immigration for 25 years. Big Labor Shortages for 25 years to great advantage.
Again, no immigration for 40 years and unprecedented prosperity. 40 Years of Open Borders from 1965 to 2005 and the result is economic collapse.
Krugman is claiming we are in the Third Depression already. What is clear is that there is almost no time left and no will or knowledge to prevent a Third Depression.
I believe Columbia and Peru(?) are also pending for free trade agreements.
All of these agreements started with Bush and Obama is following through.
I can't understand how we can have free and equitable trade with countries that have no labor standards - have little to no military expenditures because we are the worlds police force and have a much worse standard of living. Its impossible for trade to be equitable. Those agreements, especially NAFTA kill jobs here, force people into lower paying jobs and in the end game force people to shop at WalMart.
We have a lot of special interests saying it's so, but even in the so called Progressive wing, you have a lot of people aware of global labor arbitrage, so they have limits on things like guest worker Visas, others know one must control one's immigration policy, set limits...it ranges all over the place in position in reality.
It's more the corporate agenda, especially to "trade workers".
I think Obama is like an extension of the Bush administration too. We get a few tweaks on the side it seems only.
I linked to the bail out tracker that CNN has and I've seen the same number on other news sites tracking the bail out. That's the total tally for the Federal Reserve. That's not losses, that's what's laid out there. Sanders, Gregg are probably talking about a part of it, it's $1.25 trillion in MBS.
I need a link to show CDSes alone were for that's not a number I have seen.
That quote was from William White not from me.
Tax credits and people whose jobs have been spared (public sector) or who are getting a weekly check from unemployment are priming the pump and making the economy look better.
It seems disingenuous to say we need to continue these programs on one hand then turn around and say these programs which are all deficit spending have nothing to do with the gdp.
"if just currency manipulation was stopped, not even all of the other trade abuses....it could correct the trade imbalance with China."
Wow! I guess this shouldn't surprise any of us, but it's still shocking. So do you happen to know which of those links over on the left would be the best place to see the research supporting this?
The next big push is the Korean Free Trade Agreement. This makes the Obama Administration almost officially Republican. We have a $66 Billion Stimulus without contracts, Weak to Non-Existent Financial Reform, the HealthScare Plan which cuts Medicare in 2014.
On Immigration, Obama is a Neo-Con but not a libertarian Republican. So, Obama is a Democrat on social issues.
The numbers on the U.S. International accounts show the combined CDS losses for 2008 and 2009. These were the international defaults.
The losses were securitized by Fed money, loans, Treasuries. There were just more liabilities than assets. The assets are just a plug on the U.S. accounts - $6.4 Trillion.
Besides you, me, who is saying $6.4 Trillion? I keep hearing the $2.07 Trillion from Sen. Gregg and Sen. Sanders.
"Now Romania is trying to convince the IMF to bail them out anyway" ...: you make it look like the all-mighty hero IMF needs to be begged and convinced by a profligate Romania to bail it out...try this: after 500,000 Romanians died in the WWII to defend Europe, Romania was sacrificed and was given as a gift to Russia by the Westerners, with America's blessing. The intelectuals and middle class killed in concentration camps, Soviet style. My grandfather used to tell me stories about how the partisans fought in the mountains for liberty until the Americans sold them arms, but when they got them, there were no bullets!!! no help form the "free world" that we fought to save. 45 years of communism later, still alive after living on rationalized food, half a loaf of bread a week, no hot water, no heat, finally the western world has mercy of us and the "revolution" happens! We didn't have any foreign debt. Now, 20 years later, we are capitalists, all our national riches have been squandered by "foreign investors" , the economy distroyed, and Halliburton built...2 miles of highway for 25 billion dollars (USD!), overpaying Russians for natural gas and disobedience, we have finally found out that Europe didn't need us free, they just needed 24 millions more slaves, good only to buy their "junk" food, Coca Cola, and some hundreds to die in Afganistan. Yeah, right, the austerity doesn't go - NO MORE- well in Romania, thank you very much!!! IMF is temporarily "saving" Romania (or should I say our national corpse), so that the government could pay the private banking cartels and the 50% interest rates.
Here's one you can customize.
I won't touch those demographics on regional economies frankly because I just cannot locate enough statistics, evidence on what's really going on.
Good question. I think they were trying to bail out the states but the GOP blocked them and I truly believe it's due to those corporate tax code changes to remove the tax advantages to offshore outsource your job.
CA is a huge percentage of US GDP, it's like a country within a country.
Frankly I blew off tracking the real effects on "Stimulus" because the White House issues such spin. I clearly is having some effect but I frankly don't think that much in jobs. They plain did not "do it right", bottom line. They literally gave contracts to companies overseas for new "green technologies". What kind of Stimulus for a domestic economy is that? It's anti-stimulus.
Spending will be stimulative but that's not the "bang for the buck". Like Steven has his jobs guarantee idea but it's too vague for me. One could literally design such a thing to destroy what's left of the U.S. workforce. On the other hand, one could design such a thing to save the U.S. workforce too.
Same thing with "Stimulus", one can just "spend" or one can craft a truly, bang for the buck, generate the largest job growth possible plan.
Notice the government absolutely refuses to deal with canceling Federal and State contracts currently offshored. They refuse to repeal tax subsidies to companies who offshore outsource jobs, such as IBM. They refuse to put a moratorium on immigration and of course they refuse to deal with illegal workers.
None of this requires a bill through Congress. It's existing law and contract terms. Ex. IBM got a host of State, local contracts on the promise to create regional jobs. They did not. In fact they offshore outsourced more jobs. Therefore those states should demand their money back and cancel those contracts due to a major contract violation by IBM and award them to companies who will hire U.S. workers.
They don't do a damn thing on this score, that's city, county, state and federal governments.
Another example is security clearances. There are a host of U.S. tech jobs which require those but it's so much a bureaucracy, companies want people who already have them and the gov. won't speed up the process or change it to get them. It's ridiculous. They have metrics such as credit score instead of important things like, ...uh, do you sympathize with other nation's and their interests? Ever get busted for cheating in school? Cheat on your taxes, cheat on your spouse? The types of things which would imply one of low moral character and a risk to national security. It's not if someone smoked pot 20 years ago or couldn't pay their bills because they are broke.
You'll hear all sorts of spin but the reality is offshore outsourcing and use of foreigners to displace U.S. workers are duals of each other. What difference does it make if that worker is sitting in Bangalore or Cincinnati? The same U.S. worker lost their job and was displaced. Notice I'm making a differentiation between worker substitution and other forms of work. It's direct worker substitution or when wages are repressed due to oversupply that is the concern and this also is predicted by labor econ equations. Some try to make substitution coefficients zero, which is an absolute falsehood, by the statistics alone, or try to ignore, negate a host of costs and so on....
but worker substitution is going on. If the U.S. government wanted to quickly create some jobs at no cost, this is one area to act. Of course they will not due to politics and ignore the labor economics theory or statistical realities.
Last tally I've got is $6.4 trillion just the Federal Reserve, but that isn't all CDSes. I'm actually not sure of just the CDS tally.
It's $1.25 trillion for MBS, or mortgage backed securities that they "bought" from Fannie and Freddie, or GSE MBS. Then TALF or consumer loan backed securities is another $1 trillion. These things are CDOs and packaged up mortgages and loans in bundles with those tranches.
A CDS is an insurance bet against a CDO (as an example).
These are already unfathomable numbers. Supposedly the claim is they are "holding" these until they "go up in value" and so on.
Then zero interest rates (in effect) have allow banks to borrow and turn around, buy U.S. treasuries and make a killing off of the spread.
That is one good thing on the financial reform bill, there will be at least some audit of the Federal Reserve.
The Intertwining scenario is correct. I am doubly sure that the paranoia towards rational forms economic stimulus is due to the $6Trillion hole (undisclosed asset(s) classes) in U.S. International Accounts. Look at it in black an white in the BEA tab on the right. In 2008 and 2009, the Fed loaned $6 Trillion to international banks to cover the losses for CDS Derivatives. This is not sustainable. That said, there is plenty of money to finance stimulus from a variety of sources, TARP repayments, unspent stimulus funds, increasing M3 as small business loans.
In historical terms, there is this eerie similarity to the scandal of the French Crown Jewels in the 1780s. When the people learned the Crown Jewels were pawned anger was immediately directed to Louis XV and the Aristocracy in 1787. Louis had put France in hock to Holland, Spain for financing the American Revolution to the tune of Trillions of dollars. At home the ordinary French were starving and rioted against the grain speculators and the financiers. Major trading companies went bankrupt and Louis XV bailed out the trading companies.
But for the Aristocracy, the party just kept rolling (watch Dangerous Liasons), and the resentment against the rich just kept increasing. The reformers pleaded with the Aristocracy to return the nation to the democracy of the 1614 Constitution, and by May of 1789, all reform failed, before the June Riots and the Bastille in July of 1789.
I have read so many press reports claiming the Volcker rule is stronger, derivatives are now shuttered off, separate from banking and things that are assuredly plain wrong, all in praise of the bill.
Frankly, I think we'll need to read the actual language, but most of these reports are amazingly wrong.
Meanwhile Baseline Scenario has a great post up on how Jamie Dixon's new strategy will be to become so globally intertwined, so much larger, so much more diverse, there is no way Chase could be taken down and of course would be bailed out.
Frankly it's probably true.
I think you are underestimating the intense corporate lobbying as well as the entire NASSCOM, BPO lobbying against those corporate tax changes. The range goes from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to Goldman Sachs to Microsoft. Believe me, that's the real reason. IBM literally has computer models on how to most effectively labor arbitrage, complete with all national tax codes as well as exchange rates.
On Keynes, please show me the formula you refer to. There are many but the one I am referring to is
and one of the assumptions is a closed private economy. From here is where multipliers originate.
Hence, my point, one must have conditions, to ensure the stimulated
w.r.t. taxes it's
But usually this implies increase in
or government spending.
small cap c in both equations is discretionary or marginal propensity to consume increase.
(AD is aggregate demand, Y is income)
My original point is that Keynesian stimulus has conditions that the values remain only within that domestic economy. There is no imports/exports in these multipliers, I'm focused on the ones just to increase income, which were used and invalidated because they did not keep things within the U.S. citizenry/domestic economy.
On the jobs guarantee program, one must have strictly enforced conditions that only U.S. citizens, perm residents could have access to that benefit, additionally tight controls on not only immigration but also jobs being offshore outsourced...
else, one opens oneself up to global labor arbitrage. These things were not an issue in 1934, no such thing existed like the Internets and work being bits in space...
but the actual equations do make these assumptions.
We can debate the different cases - whether conservative opposition is done to placate corporate donors who dislike taxes on themselves or economic security for their workers, or whether it's an ideological commitment. From the history I've read of the conservative movement (I really recommend Not Without Honor on the conservative movement in the 40s and 50s), it's both - which is to say that businesspeople both pragmatically dislike taxes, etc. but are also more likely to be ideologically predisposed to anti-tax arguments, and conservative politicians both genuinely believe and see the practical benefits of their stances.
I don't think your statements about Keynes are accurate. Keynes's simple model assumes a single, national economy, but he did have models of the economy that included transnational trade. Tax cuts are within the bounds of Keynesianism - Heller's 1963 tax cut, for example, was pure "fiscal" Keynesianism - it's just not the most effective form, and it's very different from "social" Keynesianism or institutionalism.
As for what kind of jobs projects, if you read back through the Jobs Insurance series, I have discussed this:
Conditions of Employment - Part 4, Part 10
Types of Projects - Part 5, some of Part 6, a little bit in Part 7, "People Ready Projects"
Relation to Global Economy - Part 13, "Labor Market Power," 'Work State"
There is some horrific accounting by Bureau of Int'l Settlments and the Fed, most likely, New York. If you go over the accounts on the first link on the BEA tab, you can derive a balance sheet from their text descriptions over a 2 year period. I can understand why they do not publish an official balance sheet - huge transactions are off the books. I mean Trillions of dollars in 2008 and 2009. You can bet this is a good part of the 'audit the fed' story.
US International Position
The Last Line is a plug because of what is not shown on the asset side.
There are undisclosed assets. The liability side is greater. This means international loans are made and not disclosed.
Or other assets are just not on the balance sheet. The activity in derivatives is presented straight from the text and worked back from what BEA gives for 2008. Just look at the change in derivative valuation and you get how the bailouts
happened...
This is why I write them up and I suggest reading them and arguing from the stats reported.
The reason GDP rose in Q4 2009 as well as q1 2010 was inventory changes. That's the #1 contributor.
It was almost 70% of Q1 GDP.
Q1 2010 GDP 2.7%.
These are the private sector inventories. Please read these reports. The answers are in the statistics. A huge problem with both the MSM and the blogosphere is not looking at the numbers.
Thats a few trillion right there which is why the Fed will not raise interest rates and will turn on the printing presses once again to try and get real estate prices back to late 2006 peaks - to protect the banks before 'mark to market' hits in 2011.
Any rise in GDP has been completely fabricated by government deficit spending.
'Can we have zero interest rates forever? If you say no, we have to go back to normal, then the asset prices have to go back to normal. there's nothing truly sustainable in all this - it's all artificial."
Calculated Risk is maintaining an unofficial problem bank list. list here. I just scrolled through it and you can see a host of banks specializing in commercial real estate listed.
Recall CRE mortgage crash is coming, starting at the end of this year.
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