Recent comments

  • I see that term thrown around a lot but I'm curious as to how such a thing is calculated.

    It seems that Japan had no problem "carrying" those extra 5 million people unit this recent very man-made calamity unfolded.

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • The gold price has gone up 4-fold since 2001, but gold production peaked in 2001 and has declined ever since.
    Meanwhile central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates on a steady basis these last 8 years, thus cheapening their currencies.

    Reply to: Frightened investors turning to gold   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • While positive comments can be made about Alice Rivlin, Altman's past association with the Blackstone Group, and his founding of Evercore Partners (with another alumnus of Blackstone) does't bode well for the economy. And nothing further need be said about Rubin, although it would be lucky for the future existence of America if there was a mortal accident in his future.

    Reply to: A Profile of U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner - It's Worse Than We Feared   15 years 6 months ago
  • Are any of the terms disclosed? How exactly they do this makes all the difference.

    New York Times:

    The Treasury has an agreement in principle with the United Automobile Workers union, whose members’ pensions and retiree health care benefits would be protected as a condition of the bankruptcy filing, said these people, who asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the case.

    Moreover, Fiat of Italy would complete its alliance with Chrysler while the company is under bankruptcy protection.

    The only major question that remains unresolved is what happens to Chrysler’s lenders, who hold $6.9 billion in company debt. The government’s most recent offer, presented Wednesday, would give the company’s lenders about 22 cents on the dollar, or $1.5 billion, and a 5 percent equity stake in a reorganized Chrysler. Earlier this week, a steering committee of the lenders proposed that they receive 65 cents on the dollar, or $4.5 billion, and a 40 percent equity stake.

    So, I was wrong about Fiat and the workers aren't going to get royally screwed (we think, that would be unusual!)

    Might be a way to simply get out of the incredible debt?

    Reply to: Off the wire: Chrysler to go Chap 11 by next week   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • by both those glorified slave traders (in the U.S. known as immigration attorneys) and even nations as something to trade.

    So, you get that "the streets are paved with Gold" sales pitch...

    I know many a techie/engineer who was lured with huge bucks to Dubai, Iraq etc.

    That's what I'm trying to point out....country, one's citizenship is way more than a wage rate and they discount the entire concept these days of country....

    and many folks are naive, even when doing one's homework, that the protections of citizenship, do not apply when in another country...their laws do.

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • then. On top of it, I saw another report that FIAT is going after GM "best" cars and jilted Chrysler.

    This is beyond belief bad. Can you imagine what the U.S. will look like without an auto industry (if you want to call Ford an auto industry)?

    Reply to: Off the wire: Chrysler to go Chap 11 by next week   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • Dubai is a hell hole! My god, I can only imagine how some want this over here. 

    One doctor told him he had a year to live; another said it was benign and he'd be okay. But the debts were growing. "Before I came here, I didn't know anything about Dubai law. I assumed if all these big companies come here, it must be pretty like Canada's or any other liberal democracy's," she says. Nobody told her there is no concept of bankruptcy. If you get into debt and you can't pay, you go to prison.

    "When we realised that, I sat Daniel down and told him: listen, we need to get out of here. He knew he was guaranteed a pay-off when he resigned, so we said -- right, let's take the pay-off, clear the debt, and go." So Daniel resigned -- but he was given a lower pay-off than his contract suggested. The debt remained. As soon as you quit your job in Dubai, your employer has to inform your bank. If you have any outstanding debts that aren't covered by your savings, then all your accounts are frozen, and you are forbidden to leave the country.

    "Suddenly our cards stopped working. We had nothing. We were thrown out of our apartment." Karen can't speak about what happened next for a long time; she is shaking.

    Daniel was arrested and taken away on the day of their eviction. It was six days before she could talk to him. "He told me he was put in a cell with another debtor, a Sri Lankan guy who was only 27, who said he couldn't face the shame to his family. Daniel woke up and the boy had swallowed razor-blades. He banged for help, but nobody came, and the boy died in front of him."

    - excerpt from "Dubai's Lesson to America: How the Middle East's Shangrai La Became a Hell on Earth"

     

     

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • midtowng has written such great posts on labor history, put all together would make a dynamic published book.

    I deleted your dupe.

    Reply to: The Red Neck War   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • how oil can affect an economy so significantly. How about other energy such as heating oil, gas, electric? I think those too spiked up, had rate increases.

    Reply to: The Continuing(!) Effect of the Oil Shock on the Recession   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • Just it's clear the violence, suicide rates are skyrocketing due to the economy. But to me the real crooks never have a conscience to get to this level, so more I posted it because it's just a sign of the times. Of course all of those "regular folk" aren't making the papers.

    Reply to: Freddie Mac CFO Commits Suicide   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • The direct effect of unemployment on use of oil/gas is almost impossible to measure. For example, we know that total nonfarm payrolls have declined about 5% from their peak of 139M to 132M. But how much of their driving was commuting? How much might they have cut down trips to the supermarket or mall?

    What about businesses that have closed? How much of that driving has been absorbed by other businesses staying open?

    Probably the closest way to examine that is by the total number of miles driven, which was reported on by Calculated Risk yesterday. That report shows February driving down less than 1%. Which, of course, is nowhere near the ~4% difference shown by comparing total real retail sales vs. real retail sales minus gas.

    Another thing that might be done would be to compare with the 1981-82 and 1973-74 recessions, but again, how much of those drops is sheer unemployment, and how much would reflect medium-term changes in the use of oil/gas?

    I know it's hard to believe, but there are the numbers.

    Reply to: The Continuing(!) Effect of the Oil Shock on the Recession   15 years 6 months ago
  • So, there are tight Visa restrictions in Japan and executives brought in these Brazilian Of Japanese ethnicity basically as cheap labor. I'm not sure if they were on temporary guest worker Visas or not.

    But the bottom line is Japan has horrific unemployment, people going homeless everywhere, so they are basically trying to reduce their labor supply and this is what they are doing.

    The people are not forced out as far as I have read, they are being bought out.

    The thing that is kind of smelly is the idea they can never return. I could see a 5 year wait period that they could never return as a condition but never return is pretty harsh and if Japan's economy recovers doesn't make that much sense unless they were used to undercut Japanese labor during the boom years.

    Dubai is not buying out guest workers. They are just stuck there, no income and Dubai has debtor's prison.

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • The REO's aren't making it to the market as fast as they are going on the banks books. I keep waiting for the banks to finally give up the ghost as RE management is not what they want to do. Having all those depreciating assets on their books is costing them lots of money.
    I expect that a new wave of foreclosures might convince them to unload ... we'll just have to wait and see.

    I agree that more inventory coming to the market will drive home affordability even further. But its the type of new inventory that is the game changer.

    So far though, all we have seen is the implosion of the subprime market which has translated into 50% of sales being foreclosures. The thing about those are only first time home buyers and investors and not the meat of the housing market.

    Prime mortgages that about to reset will dwarf the subprime market and effect a larger swath of housing ... the all important move up buyer. Without the move up buyer any RE recovery will stall. And with increasing unemployment more foreclosures will be on the way.

    It has always been about class warfare.

    Reply to: March existing home sales generally stable   15 years 6 months ago
  • Why?

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • The landslide of REO properties flooding the market should drive prices further down, and if anything cause volume of sales to pick up.

    I do agree that we're nowhere near a bottom in housing in terms of prices.

    Reply to: March existing home sales generally stable   15 years 6 months ago
  • have seen moritoriums placed on foreclosures by various states and agencies like Fannie, Freddie and FHA. These are now coming off.

    For months prior to March, banks/servicers were on and off of foreclosure moratoria with many on a complete hold awaiting Pres. Obama’s plan to save the housing market and homeowners.
    [..]
    The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can’t be stopped without a national moratorium

    According to Mr. Mortgage almost 80% of all NOD turn into defaults. Of those defaults 90% are turned into bank REO's.

    New Loan Defaults Surging - forward looking. But coming down the pipe is a massive wave of mortgage Notice-of-Defaults (NOD) that dwarfs the highs we saw when things began to get really out of control in Q1 2008. In the month of March new CA loan defaults hit a record high of over 50k for the very first time. This translates into approximately 150k defualts nationally. Actual foreclosures lag NOD’s by 4-5 months so it is no guess that there is a massive foreclosure wave bearing down with the first part of the lip from the Dec NOD surge hitting in April/May.

    Speculation on my part looks to me like we are setting up for another leg down.

    It has always been about class warfare.

    Reply to: March existing home sales generally stable   15 years 6 months ago
  • The natural carrying capacity of the Shinju Islands is probably a good 5 million people less than they currently have. They could stand to lose a LOT of population before they get back to being self-sufficient, which should be the aim of any nation.
    -------------------------------------
    Executive compensation is inversely proportional to morality and ethics.

    Reply to: Japan Paying to Send Foreign Workers Home   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • this graph from Calculated Risk's article today. The last 5 months are a sideways squiggle.

    Reply to: March existing home sales generally stable   15 years 6 months ago

  • Bloomberg
    has a little problem with your assesment.

    April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of U.S. previously owned homes fell in March after jumping a month earlier by the most in more than five years, indicating the market will remain depressed for much of the year.
    Purchases decreased 3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million, lower than forecast, from 4.71 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price slumped 12 percent from a year ago and distressed properties accounted for about 50 percent of all sales.

    It seems the February bounce was short lived as the prime borrowers begin to reset this year.

    According to many reports the next shock is coming. While the bubble states are still seeing increases in foreclosures there is a
    new trend
    emerging.

    New problem cities: Meanwhile, some metropolitan areas had a surge in foreclosures. Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, in 27th place, Provo-Orem, Utah, in 37th, and Charleston-North Charleston, S.C., in 51st were examples Sharga gave of areas that had particular strong gains in filings.
    Sharga said the rise of foreclosures in additional regions indicates new factors influencing the housing market as the recession drags on.
    "What we believe we are seeing is some of the areas with unemployment problems," said Sharga. "These are people living paycheck to paycheck and, when the paycheck is gone, suddenly they can't afford to make their mortgage payments."

    Less bad will be questioned here.

    It has always been about class warfare.

    Reply to: March existing home sales generally stable   15 years 6 months ago
  • thanks.

    Reply to: The Red Neck War   15 years 6 months ago
    EPer:

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