Yeah, it seems like our "leaders" are running off a cliff with this austerity thing. The groupthink of economic advice in official circles is truly depressing. The simple concept that, during a time of need, spending money or giving money to people that will spend it simply eludes those in power. Repeating something like the WPA, CCC, or the like just isn't even in the remotest corner of public discussion even though they'd be great. There are so many still existing things in my community that were done using the public employment programs of the New Deal...if all the things those programs did were marked in Google Earth the map of the country would be simply smothered in little dots. And yet, even with a crumbling infrastructure and idle hands all around, the idea doesn't even get a flicker of thought. Instead, ideology has blocked these and most other practical ideas out of the discussion.
I have to call bullshit on this age discrimination crap you keep peddling, just like you appear to be the only individual in the US of A who still accepts those fraudulent unemployment stats, after an almost limitless number of articles have been written by this date invalidating them.
It sounds like all that divide-and-conquer crap being peddled by think tanks, foundations and various astro-turf associations.
ALL American workers, by and large, are getting screwed. The ideal applicant pool, as far as the typical American company is concerned, has always been between 26 years and 31 years of age.
The minimum wage should be around $20 or $22 per hour. There is little future, and less opportunity for far too many workers in America today.
With a dramatically shrinking jobs base and tax base (and purposefully designed thusly), the vast majority of the citizenry are screwed.
It's not about one group against another, it's about the bank-oil cartel which controls the bulk of everything against the rest of us.
Any form of adding to their divide-and-conquer spin makes one highly suspicious of you and any underlying agendas.
A Calculated Risk reader tabled out the long term unemployment situation for those with a Bachelors degree or higher who have the misfortune of being over 45. It's bleak.
The age discrimination in this country is unbelievable. These are the very people who have enough experience they could literally drive new job creation yet instead of being utilized they are tossed overboard.
Folks, you are probably aware I utilize the Saint Louis Federal Reserve FRED® database. This has to be the absolute best and fastest economic graphing system out there and that includes Excel 2007, which I also use.
Once again, they came to the rescue and updated the database to make these graphs relevant.
It seriously rocks and if they weren't around, graphing will be much slower, I'd have to build up a database of graphs locally, painstakingly put all of the formatting, titles, data points into a spreadsheet or deal with major code bugs for other types of graphing software. Same deal with Matlab.
I'm an eye-candy type of person and I believe there are others like myself who want to see a fast picture of the data. EP was just listed as one of the top blogs for visual presentation of economic events and we owe that to the St. Louis Fed. in large part. They deserve a webby minimum, this is the most wonderful tool.
I'm mentioning it in the unemployment report analysis and overview, but realize that is not people, it's jobs/businesses.
It also is a non-seasonally adjusted number. There is a big brew ha-ha about it on the Internets, so I include it just to take a look, for I certainly believe from 2008-2009 there were a hell a lot more deaths than births in businesses!
But that said, one cannot mix non-seasonally adjusted numbers and seasonally adjustments because there are a lot of tweaks going on with SA numbers. The key is the yearly for that's when all adjustments should balance themselves out, year over year. If they don't, something is askew.
But birth-deaths of real people is not as relevant. Obviously a baby isn't going to work anytime soon and either is someone who is at the end of life.
Another issue going on is assuming those at age 65 are retired. We have huge numbers of people who had their retirement wiped out, or they had to use it earlier to survive a job loss, divorce or whatever and thus have no retirement. So they are working. Also, "retired" might mean really age discrimination and that person in reality also cannot retire, even though they are listed as "early retirement".
Below is civilian non-institutional, which is defined as all those 16 or older, not locked up, in a nursing home or in the military. This is from where the workforce data comes from. The workforce is derived from this, so those "not in the labor force" are in the below graph, you can get to them via this metric.
Other stats of interest. In 2007, 47.5% of the foreign born were Hispanic and that number does include illegals.
This pdf is a nice graphic showing the subsets of non-institutional labor force.
So, what really needs to be estimated are the number of retirements per month. Deaths, births are already accounted in the "not in the labor force" section of non-institutional population. Homemakers, people who are living off of the land, don't have to work, homeless and so on are in the "not in the labor force" statistics.
It's getting to what the actual subsets are of those labeled "not in the labor force" each month. So, estimating those who retired, those who truly dropped out, say they hit the lottery or they are now staying home to raise the kids, etc. is the difficult estimate.
That's why I amplify the sudden increase of those "not in the labor force" for those are the ones who have simply fallen off of the count of the unemployed. They cannot find a job, their UI has run out and they are no longer being officially counted.
Those changes, in comparison to even slope in overall non-institutional population, that's where the hidden unemployed reside.
While some data is super out of date, due to the Census being every 10 years, as you can see in the above graphs, the overall pop numbers as well as civilian non-institutional pop. is updated every month.
There are also separate estimates for just illegals around, based off of border crossings and some other metrics, my favorite being social services, which illegals are not supposed to get!
But regardless of all of this, the reality is the U.S. needs to create some damn jobs and frankly I go to the high end of 300k just to keep up. I quote the 100k to 300k on each report but in looking over the never ending population growth, I lean towards the higher estimates.
While it it is truly frightful to watch the austerity meltdown on a global basis. It is our turn, maybe our duty, to lay down what we are sure will happen:
Global Depression
Global War
Unlike 1936 when taxes were raised for Social Security, UI and Capital Gains rates were set at 12.5 percent, we are in a 18 month sweet spot of low taxes on a personal and corporate basis. So when the double dip starts we can say with certainty that choking off business credit by the banksters, free trade agreements in place and sprawling and punishing austerity put on all levels of government worldwide.
Condition are a scientific control case for
the historical debate about the 1930's. Free traders Smauley Hoot Tarriff, now we have free trade. Starve-The-Beast - Club for Growth got 10 years of declining tax rates. The residual similarity to the 1930's is credit - or the lack of it then and now, and stimulus and its demise.
you see I graph out U.S. population growth as well as non-institutional civilian population growth. The means those not incarcerated, in the military and not retired. That includes illegals. this month's Unemployment report.
The estimates are we need 400k jobs per month for 4 years just to get down to pre-recession unemployment rates.
So, in other words, the best guess on population growth is already in the report and because unemployment is a ratio, it's a percentage, against the subset of workforce, which in turn is a subset of population growth, that's why I'm including those numbers.
The BLS counts illegals, guest workers in their statistics. This is why you'll see an artificially low unemployment rate in tech. They are counting the H-1B and L-1 foreign guest workers.
So, going to the Center for Disease Control is not as good as the graphs and data I'm using.
It is good Kagan is out of the white house. Where will Kagan wound labor more, WH or SCOTUS? Each and every financial crisis since 1873 has been preceded by a 12 year Republican term in the White House. The historical question on the economy is whether Obama will act more like a Republican administration.
Year !2 Year Antecedent Term
1873 - Lincoln, Johnson Grant
1933 - Harding, Coolidge, Hoover
1992 - Regan Bush
2008? Bush equals 3 terms of the worst kind of regulatory incompetence (and conspiracy).
We get the answer as soon as double dip starts and nothing is done to stop the second leg of the Great Recession.
The demand stats come from Commerce Department. You are right that there is no other source of analyzed demographics outside of private companies who pay for this. Yet, the media publish unvarnished estimates of population growth's effect on labor demand and never explain what they mean. In the last BLS Monthly Unemployment stats, a 400K monthly demand from population growth was widely repeated.
Without considering actual employment, it is very doable to create a population growth model . Population growth - births and deaths - has a direct bearing upon employment. There is a big obstacle with turning the decade stats into monthly stats. Both births and deaths are highly seasonal. Deaths are much higher in the winter months. Births are higher in spring through summer. The Formula should be Workforce Demand = Births + Immigration - Emigration - Retirement USCIS does not track emigration. Why would any one leave? For employment workforce demand, deaths should be retirement. Looking at births - deaths we have a consistent 2xbirths=death. Retirement should track the number of deaths with a time lag. Here is a more scientific table from CDC
CDC gives us a population growth of around 186K per month (Births - Deaths) To this we need to add 85K for legal immigration and 50K for illegal immigratin. This gives a total demand of 335K NSA.
Table A
Table A1. Provisional vital statistics for the United States, September 2009
[Rates for infant deaths are deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births; fertility rates are live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years; all other rates are per 1,000 total population. National data are based on events occurring in the United States, regardless of place of residence. Data are subject to monthly reporting variation. See "Technical Notes"]
Myself, I've literally been at a loss for words after this unemployment report. I know of so many great policy changes that could revamp and help people get jobs, but the reason I'm silent is I also know this administration and this Congress will not even consider a single one of them. I am so disgusted and even more frightening is the country seems to be fracturing into some really nonsensical camps, specifically this "small government is the answer" and then on the left, you get special interest agendas which frankly most often do not add up by economic theory, macro econ.
It's like 1999 which is like 2001 which is like 2006 which is like 2008....
What are the people going to do? We cannot get representation and the choices are getting even more "weird" in terms of economic policy.
In a strange, twisted way, I'm beginning to think that nutter Michelle Bachmann was on to something...I should never have submitted my Census form but should have instead forced the government to spend the extra cash to pay somebody to come knocking on my door. I'd much rather have my tax dollars go to have some otherwise unemployed person come to my door to figure out how many people live in my house than to have those dollars funneled into some plutocrat's already overflowing bank account. It seems the only way our Federal government will actually try to create jobs is if they are Constitutionally required to do so.
On the 4th I was at a loss because all of the policies that would turn this around, our glorified neo-con in a Democratic wrapper administration will not even try to enact or pass.
Seriously, what are we to write about at this point since our government will not listen? Write it anyway?
It's like the globe is hell bent on enacting a depression.
Labour's John Cryer told the PM: "The leaked Treasury papers are absolutely clear that unemployment is going to rocket by 1.3 million over the next five years.
And the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development said there was "not a hope in hell" that two million private sector jobs could be created in the current financial climate.
Treasury officials expect 700,000 public jobs to go by 2015 and 600,000 private ones.
...
Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham said: "These are massive figures that could take Britain back to the 80s."
Exactly how is the world economy supposed to grow when both Europe and America are moving towards austerity?
need to cite it or show how you are calculating it. For workforce is a subset of civilian non-institutional pop. which is a subset of overall population growth.
Also, in terms of job creation, recall there is a thriving underground economy in the U.S. (or was before 2008) so, while we know there are illegal workers (low ball about 5% of the total workforce), we also know there are illegal jobs.....they probably are not being tallied.
Of course the entire birth/death model is a NSA adjustment and I looked that one over thinking, hmmm.....I just do not believe there are that many new businesses generating jobs not being counted..
So, illegal jobs is probably an adjustment down if one is trying to est. illegal workers, in terms of monthly job creation needed.
There are various interests as well as philosophies who cannot recognize population affects labor markets at all, so moving into these topics it's critical to be very exact and that includes the mathematics.
Too much spin out there and as noted, it's just ridiculous we do not have raw statistics by immigration status. This is a major labor econ variable and they don't have raw statistics (available to the public and researchers). For example, supposedly the U.S. government has no idea how many H-1B guest workers there are in the country.
Guess what on the Russian spies...yup, a H-1B foreign guest worker Visa, terrorist on student Visas and still USCIS refuses to even collect the total numbers in the U.S.
with debtor's prison, people let to rot and die in the street and no social safety nets and of course no income tax on the rich.
I'm reading a host of pieces, including the great Elliott wave "super cycles" types of pieces (we have a blogger post an analysis on this and for the life of me, I cannot find him or his piece, was going to invite for an update on these)...
claiming we're going for the biggest market crash since the South Sea Scam. These aren't just your classic CT type fringe sites, I"m seeing these on major press like NYTs, MarketWatch.
Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand:
- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year over the next 30 years
- No peak in global production
In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD:
- 26 million BOPD to maintain supply - 30% of current production, almost 3 times Saudi Arabia’s output
- 18 million BOPD to keep up with demand - 22% of current production, almost 2 times Saudi Arabia’s output
If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%
If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at the website of Petrocapita: www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Ite...
Average Illegal Immigration 10 Yr 650,500 (Pew Center Low Ball)
Annual Population Work Force Demand 5,722,000
Demand - Monthly Rate 477,000
Private Sector Jobs Created Last Month 83,000
In the best months, population demand exceeded job creation by more than 386K per month, rather than the 400K citied in mainstream media.Media will not discuss immigration legal and illegal on the job market.Immigration Steal Rate is around 30%. Work Force Demand / Total Legal + Illegal Immigration.
Yeah, it seems like our "leaders" are running off a cliff with this austerity thing. The groupthink of economic advice in official circles is truly depressing. The simple concept that, during a time of need, spending money or giving money to people that will spend it simply eludes those in power. Repeating something like the WPA, CCC, or the like just isn't even in the remotest corner of public discussion even though they'd be great. There are so many still existing things in my community that were done using the public employment programs of the New Deal...if all the things those programs did were marked in Google Earth the map of the country would be simply smothered in little dots. And yet, even with a crumbling infrastructure and idle hands all around, the idea doesn't even get a flicker of thought. Instead, ideology has blocked these and most other practical ideas out of the discussion.
I have to call bullshit on this age discrimination crap you keep peddling, just like you appear to be the only individual in the US of A who still accepts those fraudulent unemployment stats, after an almost limitless number of articles have been written by this date invalidating them.
It sounds like all that divide-and-conquer crap being peddled by think tanks, foundations and various astro-turf associations.
ALL American workers, by and large, are getting screwed. The ideal applicant pool, as far as the typical American company is concerned, has always been between 26 years and 31 years of age.
The minimum wage should be around $20 or $22 per hour. There is little future, and less opportunity for far too many workers in America today.
With a dramatically shrinking jobs base and tax base (and purposefully designed thusly), the vast majority of the citizenry are screwed.
It's not about one group against another, it's about the bank-oil cartel which controls the bulk of everything against the rest of us.
Any form of adding to their divide-and-conquer spin makes one highly suspicious of you and any underlying agendas.
A Calculated Risk reader tabled out the long term unemployment situation for those with a Bachelors degree or higher who have the misfortune of being over 45. It's bleak.
table here.
The age discrimination in this country is unbelievable. These are the very people who have enough experience they could literally drive new job creation yet instead of being utilized they are tossed overboard.
It's criminal.
Reich is not an economist. Why anyone would think to listen to him about economics is beyond me.
Folks, you are probably aware I utilize the Saint Louis Federal Reserve FRED® database. This has to be the absolute best and fastest economic graphing system out there and that includes Excel 2007, which I also use.
Once again, they came to the rescue and updated the database to make these graphs relevant.
It seriously rocks and if they weren't around, graphing will be much slower, I'd have to build up a database of graphs locally, painstakingly put all of the formatting, titles, data points into a spreadsheet or deal with major code bugs for other types of graphing software. Same deal with Matlab.
I'm an eye-candy type of person and I believe there are others like myself who want to see a fast picture of the data. EP was just listed as one of the top blogs for visual presentation of economic events and we owe that to the St. Louis Fed. in large part. They deserve a webby minimum, this is the most wonderful tool.
I'm mentioning it in the unemployment report analysis and overview, but realize that is not people, it's jobs/businesses.
It also is a non-seasonally adjusted number. There is a big brew ha-ha about it on the Internets, so I include it just to take a look, for I certainly believe from 2008-2009 there were a hell a lot more deaths than births in businesses!
But that said, one cannot mix non-seasonally adjusted numbers and seasonally adjustments because there are a lot of tweaks going on with SA numbers. The key is the yearly for that's when all adjustments should balance themselves out, year over year. If they don't, something is askew.
But birth-deaths of real people is not as relevant. Obviously a baby isn't going to work anytime soon and either is someone who is at the end of life.
Another issue going on is assuming those at age 65 are retired. We have huge numbers of people who had their retirement wiped out, or they had to use it earlier to survive a job loss, divorce or whatever and thus have no retirement. So they are working. Also, "retired" might mean really age discrimination and that person in reality also cannot retire, even though they are listed as "early retirement".
This is everyone:
Below is civilian non-institutional, which is defined as all those 16 or older, not locked up, in a nursing home or in the military. This is from where the workforce data comes from. The workforce is derived from this, so those "not in the labor force" are in the below graph, you can get to them via this metric.
Other stats of interest. In 2007, 47.5% of the foreign born were Hispanic and that number does include illegals.
This pdf is a nice graphic showing the subsets of non-institutional labor force.
So, what really needs to be estimated are the number of retirements per month. Deaths, births are already accounted in the "not in the labor force" section of non-institutional population. Homemakers, people who are living off of the land, don't have to work, homeless and so on are in the "not in the labor force" statistics.
It's getting to what the actual subsets are of those labeled "not in the labor force" each month. So, estimating those who retired, those who truly dropped out, say they hit the lottery or they are now staying home to raise the kids, etc. is the difficult estimate.
That's why I amplify the sudden increase of those "not in the labor force" for those are the ones who have simply fallen off of the count of the unemployed. They cannot find a job, their UI has run out and they are no longer being officially counted.
Those changes, in comparison to even slope in overall non-institutional population, that's where the hidden unemployed reside.
While some data is super out of date, due to the Census being every 10 years, as you can see in the above graphs, the overall pop numbers as well as civilian non-institutional pop. is updated every month.
There are also separate estimates for just illegals around, based off of border crossings and some other metrics, my favorite being social services, which illegals are not supposed to get!
But regardless of all of this, the reality is the U.S. needs to create some damn jobs and frankly I go to the high end of 300k just to keep up. I quote the 100k to 300k on each report but in looking over the never ending population growth, I lean towards the higher estimates.
While it it is truly frightful to watch the austerity meltdown on a global basis. It is our turn, maybe our duty, to lay down what we are sure will happen:
Global Depression
Global War
Unlike 1936 when taxes were raised for Social Security, UI and Capital Gains rates were set at 12.5 percent, we are in a 18 month sweet spot of low taxes on a personal and corporate basis. So when the double dip starts we can say with certainty that choking off business credit by the banksters, free trade agreements in place and sprawling and punishing austerity put on all levels of government worldwide.
Condition are a scientific control case for
the historical debate about the 1930's. Free traders Smauley Hoot Tarriff, now we have free trade. Starve-The-Beast - Club for Growth got 10 years of declining tax rates. The residual similarity to the 1930's is credit - or the lack of it then and now, and stimulus and its demise.
you see I graph out U.S. population growth as well as non-institutional civilian population growth. The means those not incarcerated, in the military and not retired. That includes illegals. this month's Unemployment report.
The estimates are we need 400k jobs per month for 4 years just to get down to pre-recession unemployment rates.
So, in other words, the best guess on population growth is already in the report and because unemployment is a ratio, it's a percentage, against the subset of workforce, which in turn is a subset of population growth, that's why I'm including those numbers.
The BLS counts illegals, guest workers in their statistics. This is why you'll see an artificially low unemployment rate in tech. They are counting the H-1B and L-1 foreign guest workers.
So, going to the Center for Disease Control is not as good as the graphs and data I'm using.
It is good Kagan is out of the white house. Where will Kagan wound labor more, WH or SCOTUS? Each and every financial crisis since 1873 has been preceded by a 12 year Republican term in the White House. The historical question on the economy is whether Obama will act more like a Republican administration.
Year !2 Year Antecedent Term
1873 - Lincoln, Johnson Grant
1933 - Harding, Coolidge, Hoover
1992 - Regan Bush
2008? Bush equals 3 terms of the worst kind of regulatory incompetence (and conspiracy).
We get the answer as soon as double dip starts and nothing is done to stop the second leg of the Great Recession.
The demand stats come from Commerce Department. You are right that there is no other source of analyzed demographics outside of private companies who pay for this. Yet, the media publish unvarnished estimates of population growth's effect on labor demand and never explain what they mean. In the last BLS Monthly Unemployment stats, a 400K monthly demand from population growth was widely repeated.
Without considering actual employment, it is very doable to create a population growth model . Population growth - births and deaths - has a direct bearing upon employment. There is a big obstacle with turning the decade stats into monthly stats. Both births and deaths are highly seasonal. Deaths are much higher in the winter months. Births are higher in spring through summer. The Formula should be Workforce Demand = Births + Immigration - Emigration - Retirement USCIS does not track emigration. Why would any one leave? For employment workforce demand, deaths should be retirement. Looking at births - deaths we have a consistent 2xbirths=death. Retirement should track the number of deaths with a time lag. Here is a more scientific table from CDC
CDC gives us a population growth of around 186K per month (Births - Deaths) To this we need to add 85K for legal immigration and 50K for illegal immigratin. This gives a total demand of 335K NSA.
Table A
Table A1. Provisional vital statistics for the United States, September 2009
[Rates for infant deaths are deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births; fertility rates are live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years; all other rates are per 1,000 total population. National data are based on events occurring in the United States, regardless of place of residence. Data are subject to monthly reporting variation. See "Technical Notes"]
See footnotes at end of Table A3
Myself, I've literally been at a loss for words after this unemployment report. I know of so many great policy changes that could revamp and help people get jobs, but the reason I'm silent is I also know this administration and this Congress will not even consider a single one of them. I am so disgusted and even more frightening is the country seems to be fracturing into some really nonsensical camps, specifically this "small government is the answer" and then on the left, you get special interest agendas which frankly most often do not add up by economic theory, macro econ.
It's like 1999 which is like 2001 which is like 2006 which is like 2008....
What are the people going to do? We cannot get representation and the choices are getting even more "weird" in terms of economic policy.
In a strange, twisted way, I'm beginning to think that nutter Michelle Bachmann was on to something...I should never have submitted my Census form but should have instead forced the government to spend the extra cash to pay somebody to come knocking on my door. I'd much rather have my tax dollars go to have some otherwise unemployed person come to my door to figure out how many people live in my house than to have those dollars funneled into some plutocrat's already overflowing bank account. It seems the only way our Federal government will actually try to create jobs is if they are Constitutionally required to do so.
Its really a depressed graph is showing on above, this was an really a historical fall on Real Estate agencies.
On the 4th I was at a loss because all of the policies that would turn this around, our glorified neo-con in a Democratic wrapper administration will not even try to enact or pass.
Seriously, what are we to write about at this point since our government will not listen? Write it anyway?
It's like the globe is hell bent on enacting a depression.
For such a small nation, these numbers are staggering.
Exactly how is the world economy supposed to grow when both Europe and America are moving towards austerity?
need to cite it or show how you are calculating it. For workforce is a subset of civilian non-institutional pop. which is a subset of overall population growth.
Also, in terms of job creation, recall there is a thriving underground economy in the U.S. (or was before 2008) so, while we know there are illegal workers (low ball about 5% of the total workforce), we also know there are illegal jobs.....they probably are not being tallied.
Of course the entire birth/death model is a NSA adjustment and I looked that one over thinking, hmmm.....I just do not believe there are that many new businesses generating jobs not being counted..
So, illegal jobs is probably an adjustment down if one is trying to est. illegal workers, in terms of monthly job creation needed.
There are various interests as well as philosophies who cannot recognize population affects labor markets at all, so moving into these topics it's critical to be very exact and that includes the mathematics.
Too much spin out there and as noted, it's just ridiculous we do not have raw statistics by immigration status. This is a major labor econ variable and they don't have raw statistics (available to the public and researchers). For example, supposedly the U.S. government has no idea how many H-1B guest workers there are in the country.
Guess what on the Russian spies...yup, a H-1B foreign guest worker Visa, terrorist on student Visas and still USCIS refuses to even collect the total numbers in the U.S.
with debtor's prison, people let to rot and die in the street and no social safety nets and of course no income tax on the rich.
I'm reading a host of pieces, including the great Elliott wave "super cycles" types of pieces (we have a blogger post an analysis on this and for the life of me, I cannot find him or his piece, was going to invite for an update on these)...
claiming we're going for the biggest market crash since the South Sea Scam. These aren't just your classic CT type fringe sites, I"m seeing these on major press like NYTs, MarketWatch.
Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand:
- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year over the next 30 years
- No peak in global production
In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD:
- 26 million BOPD to maintain supply - 30% of current production, almost 3 times Saudi Arabia’s output
- 18 million BOPD to keep up with demand - 22% of current production, almost 2 times Saudi Arabia’s output
If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%
If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at the website of Petrocapita: www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Ite...
Annual Legal Immigration Average 10 Yr 1,050,000
Average Live Births in Last 10 Yr 4,022,000
Average Illegal Immigration 10 Yr 650,500 (Pew Center Low Ball)
Annual Population Work Force Demand 5,722,000
Demand - Monthly Rate 477,000
Private Sector Jobs Created Last Month 83,000
In the best months, population demand exceeded job creation by more than 386K per month, rather than the 400K citied in mainstream media.Media will not discuss immigration legal and illegal on the job market.Immigration Steal Rate is around 30%. Work Force Demand / Total Legal + Illegal Immigration.
Census - Annualized, Dept of Commerce
YR Births /1k
Source: DHS
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