I believe Mr. Richardson helped establish the Peace and Freedom Party in FL because he supported their nominee, Roseanne Barr. He is not easily pigeon holed.
construction spending for all three months of the 2nd quarter was lower than reported by the BEA in the advance report for 2nd quarter GDP... annualized construction spending for April was revised $9.9 billion lower, and annualized construction spending for May was revised $2.4 billion lower...in reporting 2nd quarter GDP, the BEA's technical note indicated that they had estimated June residential construction would be $3.9 billion greater than that of the previously reported May figure, and that June nonresidential construction would be $1.4 billion greater than that of the reported May figure...with this report, May residential construction spending was revised from the originally reported $451.9 billion to $445.9 billion, while May nonresidential construction spending was revised from the originally reported $407.4 billion to $410.7 billion....that means the BEA overestimated June construction spending by $8.0 billion...the annualized figure for 2nd quarter construction spending would thus be $6.8 billion less than the figure used by the BEA when computing 2nd quarter GDP, implying a .23 percentage point reduction to 2nd quarter GDP...
meanwhile, the aggregate value of June factory inventories fell for the 13th time in the past fourteen months, decreasing by $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $619.1 billion,....June inventories of durable goods decreased in value by $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $381.3 billion, revised from the 0.2% decrease that was reported in the advance report....the value of non-durable goods' inventories increased by $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $237.9 billion, following a decrease of 0.3% in May...the BEA's technical note for 2nd quarter GDP indicates that they had estimated that the value of non-durable goods inventories would increase by $19.3 billion,.so if i'm reading this right, that would indicate a substantial reduction to 2nd quarter GDP on the order of $18.8 billion, or a 0.64 percentage point hit to 2nd quarter growth..
While you may have already come to a personal decision with respect to candidates , I would like to offer a counter perspective for those members of the Party who are open to considering all candidates. I happen to know both the Reform Party and Mr. De La Fuente quite well. Dismissing Mr. De La Fuente as a "cookie-cutter progressive Democrat whining about Trump" is as much a mischaracterization as suggesting that Mr. Darcy is closely aligned with the Reform Party's core principles or national platform.
When Mr. Darcy elected not to attend the Reform Party's 2012 convention he stated, "I never really liked going to funerals, so I skipped the Philadelphia convention." Instead, he directed his energy toward establishing the Peace and Freedom Party in Florida, whose national platform begins: "The Peace and Freedom Party, born from the civil rights and anti-war movements of the 1960s, is committed to socialism, democracy, ecology, feminism, racial equality, and internationalism." While many of those elements are compatible with the reform Party's positions, I have a hard time rationalizing "socialism" as with the reform party I know.
Conversely, Mr. De La Fuente may be a progressive relative to social issues, but he is a conservative relative to fiscal issues (although he would admonish me for using the term "conservative" over his preferred term: "rational"). Much like Donald Trump, he is a non-traditional candidate who has been extremely successful in the private sector. He has created thousands of jobs across the United States and throughout South and Central America that have allowed families to "move up" from a socio-economic perspective. In fact, he is similar to Mr. Trump in many ways except he believes in treating people with respect. He also is a minority, so he is naturally more sensitive to minority issues than is Mr. Trump and he doesn't have to pretend to understand those issues as so many other traditional candidates do.
Mr. De La Fuente also brings another unique experience to the table. He overcame what previously were thought to be insurmountable barriers to gain ballot access in the Democratic primary (40 states, 5 territories and the District of Columbia) only to suffer election anomalies and outright fraud. For example, on one occasion, Mr. De La Fuente's vote total went DOWN by over 8,000 votes during a 20 minute period in Travis County, Texas. He understands how rampant election manipulation has become and how it must be brought to the American public's attention and stopped (something that is in total alignment with the Reform Party's core principles).
Having been the leading independent candidate for President of the United States in 2012, I can assure you that the Reform Party's candidate will not win the 2016 Presidential election. The question is whether the Party will field a candidate who can attract national attention and truly make a difference (such as on the issue of election reform). Mr. De La Fuente has already established ballot lines in several states, has signature petitions going through validation in about a dozen more, and is currently gathering petitions in about a half-dozen more states with plans to pursue filings in others as well.
I hope this helps fill the gap in information that others may be experiencing and brings some balance to their consideration as well.
Very interesting analysis, but wouldn't converting the Reform Party into an anti-globalist, pro-MAR, post-Trump successor party essentially turn it into a non-theocratic version of the Constitution Party? Not that there's anything wrong with that, the CP seems to be the least generally appealing of the big three third parties, maybe a revised Reform that's returned to its Perotista roots could supplant the CP for wider appeal.
boom prices probably encourage overinvestment in new production which ultimately leads to a supply glut and a bust...the bust in turn leads to a long period of little new investment in exploration and exploitation while the older fields deplete, eventually leading to a period where demand outstrips supply and another boom..
As I said on Facebook, I think the Stoddard - Cruz/Cruz supporters comparison is more accurate than the Doniphon - Trump comparison, but the point is more that different times call for different actions, and now is not the time for finger wagging about principles.
Hum...don't recall Wayne's Tom Doniphon character being a man of big deals, forcing eminent domain laws, bankruptcy. Much less did Wayne's Doniphon have the moral depth of character to brag of bedding down married women. Trump as John Wayne...don't think so.
Indeed, Trump seems far more likely a big-shot bully perl Liberty Valance...ready to cash in on a $billion-dollar$ Deal if the Neo-Cons offer it in Urkaine, Syria, Poland, Russia. Doubt seriously Trump would have fared well in a Wayne western...unless grossly miscast.;-)
producer prices for finished goods were up 0.7% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in April, with producer prices for energy goods up 2.8% and core producer prices up 0.3%, so after factory inventories are adjusted for inflation, they will likely show a real decrease on the order of 0.8% for the month, following the 0.3% real decrease in April...thus with two months of factory inventory data in the books, then, it appears that this real inventory contraction will result in a substantial subtraction from 2nd quarter GDP figures when they're released at the end of July...
i just realized that construction spending went through an annual revision (i thought it had one a few months ago) so i'll have to recompute the quarterly change against the revised 4th quarter data, but it still looks huge..
"Inherent in the genteel manners that purportedly characterized old WASP society was the concept of noblesse oblige, the idea that with station and wealth comes an obligation to the less fortunate."
today's construction spending report showed the annual rate of construction spending for March was revised from $1,155.1 billion to $1,176.4 billion, and the annual rate of February construction spending was revised up from $1,137.9 billion to a $1,157,7 billion rate...combined, those revisions are enough to add 0.25 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP....that will likely show up in the annual GDP revisions to be released early August
interesting that growth in current dollar GDP at 1.4% was unrevised from the second estimate...don't recall that i've ever seen such a large revision in the GDP deflator this late in the game..
April inventories were up 0.1% with a 0.2% increase in producer prices...it's only one month, but if it doesn't improve it could wipe as much as 200 basis points off GDP...
I believe Mr. Richardson helped establish the Peace and Freedom Party in FL because he supported their nominee, Roseanne Barr. He is not easily pigeon holed.
Thanks for the response.
construction spending for all three months of the 2nd quarter was lower than reported by the BEA in the advance report for 2nd quarter GDP... annualized construction spending for April was revised $9.9 billion lower, and annualized construction spending for May was revised $2.4 billion lower...in reporting 2nd quarter GDP, the BEA's technical note indicated that they had estimated June residential construction would be $3.9 billion greater than that of the previously reported May figure, and that June nonresidential construction would be $1.4 billion greater than that of the reported May figure...with this report, May residential construction spending was revised from the originally reported $451.9 billion to $445.9 billion, while May nonresidential construction spending was revised from the originally reported $407.4 billion to $410.7 billion....that means the BEA overestimated June construction spending by $8.0 billion...the annualized figure for 2nd quarter construction spending would thus be $6.8 billion less than the figure used by the BEA when computing 2nd quarter GDP, implying a .23 percentage point reduction to 2nd quarter GDP...
Mr. Phillips:
While you may have already come to a personal decision with respect to candidates , I would like to offer a counter perspective for those members of the Party who are open to considering all candidates. I happen to know both the Reform Party and Mr. De La Fuente quite well. Dismissing Mr. De La Fuente as a "cookie-cutter progressive Democrat whining about Trump" is as much a mischaracterization as suggesting that Mr. Darcy is closely aligned with the Reform Party's core principles or national platform.
When Mr. Darcy elected not to attend the Reform Party's 2012 convention he stated, "I never really liked going to funerals, so I skipped the Philadelphia convention." Instead, he directed his energy toward establishing the Peace and Freedom Party in Florida, whose national platform begins: "The Peace and Freedom Party, born from the civil rights and anti-war movements of the 1960s, is committed to socialism, democracy, ecology, feminism, racial equality, and internationalism." While many of those elements are compatible with the reform Party's positions, I have a hard time rationalizing "socialism" as with the reform party I know.
Conversely, Mr. De La Fuente may be a progressive relative to social issues, but he is a conservative relative to fiscal issues (although he would admonish me for using the term "conservative" over his preferred term: "rational"). Much like Donald Trump, he is a non-traditional candidate who has been extremely successful in the private sector. He has created thousands of jobs across the United States and throughout South and Central America that have allowed families to "move up" from a socio-economic perspective. In fact, he is similar to Mr. Trump in many ways except he believes in treating people with respect. He also is a minority, so he is naturally more sensitive to minority issues than is Mr. Trump and he doesn't have to pretend to understand those issues as so many other traditional candidates do.
Mr. De La Fuente also brings another unique experience to the table. He overcame what previously were thought to be insurmountable barriers to gain ballot access in the Democratic primary (40 states, 5 territories and the District of Columbia) only to suffer election anomalies and outright fraud. For example, on one occasion, Mr. De La Fuente's vote total went DOWN by over 8,000 votes during a 20 minute period in Travis County, Texas. He understands how rampant election manipulation has become and how it must be brought to the American public's attention and stopped (something that is in total alignment with the Reform Party's core principles).
Having been the leading independent candidate for President of the United States in 2012, I can assure you that the Reform Party's candidate will not win the 2016 Presidential election. The question is whether the Party will field a candidate who can attract national attention and truly make a difference (such as on the issue of election reform). Mr. De La Fuente has already established ballot lines in several states, has signature petitions going through validation in about a dozen more, and is currently gathering petitions in about a half-dozen more states with plans to pursue filings in others as well.
I hope this helps fill the gap in information that others may be experiencing and brings some balance to their consideration as well.
Very interesting analysis, but wouldn't converting the Reform Party into an anti-globalist, pro-MAR, post-Trump successor party essentially turn it into a non-theocratic version of the Constitution Party? Not that there's anything wrong with that, the CP seems to be the least generally appealing of the big three third parties, maybe a revised Reform that's returned to its Perotista roots could supplant the CP for wider appeal.
boom prices probably encourage overinvestment in new production which ultimately leads to a supply glut and a bust...the bust in turn leads to a long period of little new investment in exploration and exploitation while the older fields deplete, eventually leading to a period where demand outstrips supply and another boom..
Forgot to see if there is a cycle pattern to oil boom and bust.
A billionaire and here come the Clintons.
oil crashed to $7 a barrel in 1986, and except for a few geopolitcal spikes, stayed in a range below $25 a barrel till about 1998...
It seems prices plummeted in the 90's and stayed that way for at least a decade but I'm not sure. Do you know?
BTW: I am modifying the site code and have been, why no writing. Almost at a stopping point. Email me if anyone sees weird bugs of course.
As I said on Facebook, I think the Stoddard - Cruz/Cruz supporters comparison is more accurate than the Doniphon - Trump comparison, but the point is more that different times call for different actions, and now is not the time for finger wagging about principles.
Hum...don't recall Wayne's Tom Doniphon character being a man of big deals, forcing eminent domain laws, bankruptcy. Much less did Wayne's Doniphon have the moral depth of character to brag of bedding down married women. Trump as John Wayne...don't think so.
Indeed, Trump seems far more likely a big-shot bully perl Liberty Valance...ready to cash in on a $billion-dollar$ Deal if the Neo-Cons offer it in Urkaine, Syria, Poland, Russia. Doubt seriously Trump would have fared well in a Wayne western...unless grossly miscast.;-)
My experience is they revise internally before we see it on trade data and those import/export price deflators are often key.
So glad you covered this though, trade is now a huge campaign issue.
producer prices for finished goods were up 0.7% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in April, with producer prices for energy goods up 2.8% and core producer prices up 0.3%, so after factory inventories are adjusted for inflation, they will likely show a real decrease on the order of 0.8% for the month, following the 0.3% real decrease in April...thus with two months of factory inventory data in the books, then, it appears that this real inventory contraction will result in a substantial subtraction from 2nd quarter GDP figures when they're released at the end of July...
i just realized that construction spending went through an annual revision (i thought it had one a few months ago) so i'll have to recompute the quarterly change against the revised 4th quarter data, but it still looks huge..
"Inherent in the genteel manners that purportedly characterized old WASP society was the concept of noblesse oblige, the idea that with station and wealth comes an obligation to the less fortunate."
I think that's a bit much to say.
Sure seems like the revisions are way off of the mark. I know they publish margins of error and percentages of corrections but these do seem huge.
today's construction spending report showed the annual rate of construction spending for March was revised from $1,155.1 billion to $1,176.4 billion, and the annual rate of February construction spending was revised up from $1,137.9 billion to a $1,157,7 billion rate...combined, those revisions are enough to add 0.25 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP....that will likely show up in the annual GDP revisions to be released early August
interesting that growth in current dollar GDP at 1.4% was unrevised from the second estimate...don't recall that i've ever seen such a large revision in the GDP deflator this late in the game..
I think much of this is shear panic versus real impact. Brexit.
April inventories were up 0.1% with a 0.2% increase in producer prices...it's only one month, but if it doesn't improve it could wipe as much as 200 basis points off GDP...
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