boom prices probably encourage overinvestment in new production which ultimately leads to a supply glut and a bust...the bust in turn leads to a long period of little new investment in exploration and exploitation while the older fields deplete, eventually leading to a period where demand outstrips supply and another boom..
As I said on Facebook, I think the Stoddard - Cruz/Cruz supporters comparison is more accurate than the Doniphon - Trump comparison, but the point is more that different times call for different actions, and now is not the time for finger wagging about principles.
Hum...don't recall Wayne's Tom Doniphon character being a man of big deals, forcing eminent domain laws, bankruptcy. Much less did Wayne's Doniphon have the moral depth of character to brag of bedding down married women. Trump as John Wayne...don't think so.
Indeed, Trump seems far more likely a big-shot bully perl Liberty Valance...ready to cash in on a $billion-dollar$ Deal if the Neo-Cons offer it in Urkaine, Syria, Poland, Russia. Doubt seriously Trump would have fared well in a Wayne western...unless grossly miscast.;-)
producer prices for finished goods were up 0.7% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in April, with producer prices for energy goods up 2.8% and core producer prices up 0.3%, so after factory inventories are adjusted for inflation, they will likely show a real decrease on the order of 0.8% for the month, following the 0.3% real decrease in April...thus with two months of factory inventory data in the books, then, it appears that this real inventory contraction will result in a substantial subtraction from 2nd quarter GDP figures when they're released at the end of July...
i just realized that construction spending went through an annual revision (i thought it had one a few months ago) so i'll have to recompute the quarterly change against the revised 4th quarter data, but it still looks huge..
"Inherent in the genteel manners that purportedly characterized old WASP society was the concept of noblesse oblige, the idea that with station and wealth comes an obligation to the less fortunate."
today's construction spending report showed the annual rate of construction spending for March was revised from $1,155.1 billion to $1,176.4 billion, and the annual rate of February construction spending was revised up from $1,137.9 billion to a $1,157,7 billion rate...combined, those revisions are enough to add 0.25 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP....that will likely show up in the annual GDP revisions to be released early August
interesting that growth in current dollar GDP at 1.4% was unrevised from the second estimate...don't recall that i've ever seen such a large revision in the GDP deflator this late in the game..
April inventories were up 0.1% with a 0.2% increase in producer prices...it's only one month, but if it doesn't improve it could wipe as much as 200 basis points off GDP...
The problem is that in effect a morally pure, "testimonial party" is hard-pressed to exist as any sort of weighty force in the actual political scene absent proportional representation, notably proportional representation of the threshold-free sort that exists in the Netherlands. The Constitution Party has certainly served a noble effect as a grounding pole for the more discerning traditional elements (even if actually voting for them may not always have been the wisest choice) to rally around. The question is to what extent that rallying is useful in an electoral cycle such as this and with a candidate such as Trump. That said, if they are going to field a candidate I agree with your recommendation. At the least it won't give the interventionists and immigrationists in the NeverTrump crowd that there is an electoral "pure conservative" line to validate their insane and stupid diplomatic and immigration policies.
boom prices probably encourage overinvestment in new production which ultimately leads to a supply glut and a bust...the bust in turn leads to a long period of little new investment in exploration and exploitation while the older fields deplete, eventually leading to a period where demand outstrips supply and another boom..
Forgot to see if there is a cycle pattern to oil boom and bust.
A billionaire and here come the Clintons.
oil crashed to $7 a barrel in 1986, and except for a few geopolitcal spikes, stayed in a range below $25 a barrel till about 1998...
It seems prices plummeted in the 90's and stayed that way for at least a decade but I'm not sure. Do you know?
BTW: I am modifying the site code and have been, why no writing. Almost at a stopping point. Email me if anyone sees weird bugs of course.
As I said on Facebook, I think the Stoddard - Cruz/Cruz supporters comparison is more accurate than the Doniphon - Trump comparison, but the point is more that different times call for different actions, and now is not the time for finger wagging about principles.
Hum...don't recall Wayne's Tom Doniphon character being a man of big deals, forcing eminent domain laws, bankruptcy. Much less did Wayne's Doniphon have the moral depth of character to brag of bedding down married women. Trump as John Wayne...don't think so.
Indeed, Trump seems far more likely a big-shot bully perl Liberty Valance...ready to cash in on a $billion-dollar$ Deal if the Neo-Cons offer it in Urkaine, Syria, Poland, Russia. Doubt seriously Trump would have fared well in a Wayne western...unless grossly miscast.;-)
My experience is they revise internally before we see it on trade data and those import/export price deflators are often key.
So glad you covered this though, trade is now a huge campaign issue.
producer prices for finished goods were up 0.7% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in April, with producer prices for energy goods up 2.8% and core producer prices up 0.3%, so after factory inventories are adjusted for inflation, they will likely show a real decrease on the order of 0.8% for the month, following the 0.3% real decrease in April...thus with two months of factory inventory data in the books, then, it appears that this real inventory contraction will result in a substantial subtraction from 2nd quarter GDP figures when they're released at the end of July...
i just realized that construction spending went through an annual revision (i thought it had one a few months ago) so i'll have to recompute the quarterly change against the revised 4th quarter data, but it still looks huge..
"Inherent in the genteel manners that purportedly characterized old WASP society was the concept of noblesse oblige, the idea that with station and wealth comes an obligation to the less fortunate."
I think that's a bit much to say.
Sure seems like the revisions are way off of the mark. I know they publish margins of error and percentages of corrections but these do seem huge.
today's construction spending report showed the annual rate of construction spending for March was revised from $1,155.1 billion to $1,176.4 billion, and the annual rate of February construction spending was revised up from $1,137.9 billion to a $1,157,7 billion rate...combined, those revisions are enough to add 0.25 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP....that will likely show up in the annual GDP revisions to be released early August
interesting that growth in current dollar GDP at 1.4% was unrevised from the second estimate...don't recall that i've ever seen such a large revision in the GDP deflator this late in the game..
I think much of this is shear panic versus real impact. Brexit.
April inventories were up 0.1% with a 0.2% increase in producer prices...it's only one month, but if it doesn't improve it could wipe as much as 200 basis points off GDP...
is going to be fairly solid so that makes Q1 just a bump. TBD on the employment report but the recent follows Q1.
The problem is that in effect a morally pure, "testimonial party" is hard-pressed to exist as any sort of weighty force in the actual political scene absent proportional representation, notably proportional representation of the threshold-free sort that exists in the Netherlands. The Constitution Party has certainly served a noble effect as a grounding pole for the more discerning traditional elements (even if actually voting for them may not always have been the wisest choice) to rally around. The question is to what extent that rallying is useful in an electoral cycle such as this and with a candidate such as Trump. That said, if they are going to field a candidate I agree with your recommendation. At the least it won't give the interventionists and immigrationists in the NeverTrump crowd that there is an electoral "pure conservative" line to validate their insane and stupid diplomatic and immigration policies.
could be..i had been expecting that to reverse when it slowed down in 2015 but this year it looks like it's getting worse every month...
Is that longer than the length of home ownership?
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