It might be interesting to see if the emergency diesel generators were mentioned in the scandal with TAPCO back in 2002-2003. That would be highly significant. I'm sure some able prosecutor for the Japanese government is looking into that, as we speak. Quite a story, isn't it?
Yes, I'll grant that the older plants are not as safe as they could be but that is true of any old technology.
I didn't mean to imply our current plants are totally unsafe but that they are only safe within the levels of disaster they were designed to deal with.
You can't argue like certain free market types that because planning isn't perfect we give up on it.
You are correct that Wall Street and other companies shouldn't be trusted but since I am a populist I believe that infrastructure should be publicly owned and run not outsourced to some profit seeking private companies who has every incentive to drive up profit by cutting corners.
How privatized is Tokyo power? I'm wondering if any of the safety lapses could be the result of a partial privatization scheme.
As for the so-called Nuclear Bailout those were loan guarantees which the Industry has to pay for and thus the Government usually makes money those rather losing it.
I could bring up the tax credits for windmills and other give aways but one has understand that most Nuclear subsidy is R&D for fusion and particle accelerators (bangs head against wall).
Most energy subsidies are for fossil fuels and I would support any leveling of the distribution. Say with 10 sources of energy (Coal, Oil, Fossil Gas,Solar, Wind, Hydro,Tidal, Geothermal, Fission, Fusion)give them each 10% of total energy subsidies and I guarantee that Fission, Hydro, and Geothermal will end up on top. It's just the way physics will work with EROI.
You are essentially correct that US nuclear is likely dead and all that means is more coal and natural gas while the Chinese, Indians, and South Koreans kick our asses right out the Hi-Tech Nuclear export industry.
We could be mature, upgrade the existing plants and design much safer Gen IV modular factory build plants and regain our high tech and heavy industry exports but that would political leadership not filled with overreactor political types. So go long on Fossils and lung disease, short US tech development.
The big question on engineering standards (and possibly on cover-ups of failure to test and maintain) concerns the emergency diesel generators that resulted in failure of pumps at a crucial point. Remains to be seen ... and may never be seen ...
I am not a big fan of MSM, to say the least. However, whatever your definition of 'meltdown' ...
Containment apparently has been breached. Outer containment walls have been reported as destroyed. Water level keeps falling within inner containment vessel. It's too early to pronounce that there has been no breach in containment. To some extent, at least, it appears that there has been exactly that.
As for the number about Japan's loss of electric power, that likely is reporting the loss of power available and in use over the entire grid. There is a problem in connecting the grid from west to east, due to difference from 50 cycle to 60 cycle. Much of the affected region has reduced number of hours in anticipation of interruption of oil/gas imports, due to necessary repairs of port facility infrastructure.
I would not suggest that worry solves anything, but jumping to conclusions in reaction to MSM reporting is equally a waste of time.
"The military/security complex, about which President Eisenhower warned Americans a half century ago, is more powerful than ever and shows no inclination to halt the wars for US hegemony." -- Paul Craig Roberts
The irony of it is that the "wars for US hegemony" are accomplishing global hegemony of the People's Republic of China!
... yet none dare call it treason!
BTW: Why is it so impossible to enact -- even to bring into the public discussion -- the War Profiteering Prevention Act? And how can the apologists for "our" wars possibly also advocate for anything but increased taxes on the greatest fortunes and largest incomes within the U.S. economy?
Yet there is no voice in mainstream media nor in all of right-wing talkdom, pointing out the cognitive dissonance in a policy of reducing taxes in a time of war. And where are the voices in Congress reminding the people that if a war is worth fighting, it is worth sacrifice at all levels of society?
Do Americans really believe in these wars? And how much longer can the U.S. expect to continue to maintain the appearance of superpower "hegemony" without full support of the people?
Whatever their pretenses to righteosness and patriotism, those who perpetrate systematic fraud on the people of the United States of America are well aware of the situation described by Sun Tzu (at classics.mit.edu):
"When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue."
Is there a good argument against the proposition that, at some point, amassing of fortunes by whatever means possible, to invest anywhere but in the U.S.A. and notably in a nation that is clearly our greatest strategic adversary, inevitably degenerates into a form of treason?
Any substantial effort to compensate for power in this country should be a public utility, period. The Tokyo power company (TEPCO) that built this plant had a scandal concerning safety in 2002-2003 showing executives (subsequently removed) avoided prudent safety concerns raised by workers. Diablo Canyon, a management mess of epic proportions, is another exemplar of the private sector dealing with deadly energy. ENRON's fleecing of California is another reason to go public. The city of Los Angeles had no crazy price fluctuations at the same time the rest of the state, private power, was get.
This is the listing of reactors at Fukushima I. I'm talking about the right plant and the reactors that were in question when the article was writtten, reactors 1-3.
This information came from Wikipedia, which had updated their information just after the eartquake. There is no confusion about reactors and the primary plant for the explosion. Here's information on Fukushima II.
On coal, great point. It's another absurdist, nihilist solution. Now we have "clean" coal, a neologism.
We'll see how this evolves. I wish the Japanese people all the best and fondly recall the two months I spent there on business during the 1980's, a wonderful experience in Tokyo.
Japan currently has 54 operating nuclear reactors with a total installed generating capacity of around 49 GW, making it the third-largest nuclear power generator in the world behind the United States and France. EIA preliminary data shows that Japan produced 244 BKwh of nuclear-generated electricity in 2008. The government plans to increase nuclear's share of total electricity generation from 24 percent in 2008 to 40 percent by 2017 and to 50 percent by 2030, according to the Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry.
Looks like the 10% I cited (well, unrounded, it's 9.5918%)
Doubling that was stated as an assumption since we're looking at automatic shutdowns and reinspections. Given the scandal ridden history of nuclear power in Japan, it is reasonable to assume that some additional percent of nuclear electrical generation would be added to the 10%. I just doubled it. Even at 10%, it's a huge hit to the economy.
1) a melting of control rods to some degree is possible, even likely, but this is NOT a meltdown
2) Even in a 'meltdown' situation, there are degrees. Melting of the control rods but preservation of containment is a far cry from a mass of radioactive and red hot material burning its way into the water supply.
3) The number quoted regarding Japan's loss of electric power is ridiculous.
Fukushima #1 represents perhaps 4% at most. This is still very serious, but is a far cry from 10% or larger numbers. You're confusing the different REACTORS at Fukushima #1 with the different PLANTS: Fukushima #1, Fukushima #2, etc.
4) The fact that there hasn't been breach in containment thus far almost certainly guarantees that there won't be.
A much better article explaining the details and circumstances around this tragedy:
This is incredible, an engineer who "stole" code they are looking at giving him 10 years for snatching software he wrote while out the door to a new company...
i.e. taking his work product with him.
Ok, but compare that to all of the executives who get jack, zip, nada, nothing, including AIG financial products and Countrywide.
So, if you're an executive you can commit all of the fraud and crime you want, yet if you are a geek, lordy they are gunning after you?
It is often said that you can judge a person by the company they keep.
If this is true, it is small wonder that billionaire libertarians Charles and David Koch have become notorious in the eyes of many Americans.
TIM PHILLIPS, the man who heads up the Americans For Prosperity group that serves as a political front for the brothers Koch (David serves as Chairman of the organization), and is leading the effort to support Gov. Scott Walker’s attempt to neuter the public employee unions in Wisconsin, is a key cog in the Koch political machine – earning in excess of $250,000 for his services in 2009 (latest tax filing data available.)
FOLLOWING MR. PHILLIPS’ CAREER IS LIKE TIPTOEING THROUGH SOME OF THE MOST NOTABLE POLITICAL DIRTY TRICKS AND LOBBYING SCANDALS IN MODERN HISTORY.
Here is a sampling of some of Phillips’ ‘greatest hits’.
In 1997, Phillips hooked up with Christian Coalition boss, Ralph Reed, to create Century Strategies, a political strategy and direct marketing group. The firm advertised themselves as being dedicated to mounting ‘grassroots lobbying campaigns’ and exploiting their ability to impact on legislation by using their strong connections to the leaders in the Christian community.
THE NEW BUSINESS GOT OFF TO A NICE START WHEN KARL ROVE REFERRED THEIR FIRST MAJOR CORPORATE CLIENT – ENRON. While Century Strategies efforts to pressure Congress to alter energy policy in ways that benefited their client paid off – both in legislative success for Enron and financial success for Phillips and Reed- there is little to suggest that anything they did was unethical.
But many opportunities would lay ahead as THE FIRM ENTERED THE BIG TIME WHEN PHILLIPS AND REED JOINED UP WITH NOTORIOUS LOBBYIST AND FUTURE CONVICT, JACK ABRAMOFF.
It was the NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, a small speck of land in the Atlantic that provided Phillips and Reed with the opportunity to show what they could really do.
The Marianas are a U.S. protectorate and, as a result of their status, manufacturing done on the island qualifies the goods they produce to be labeled “Made In The USA.”
Unfortunately, the working conditions on the island brought the meaning of ’sweat shop’ to unprecedented lows.
It wasn’t enough for the operators on the Marianas to PAY THEIR WORKERS MEAGER, UNLIVABLE WAGES. TO BOOST REVENUES, CHINESE WOMEN WERE FORCED BY THEIR EMPLOYERS INTO PROSTITUTION TO SATISFY THE NEEDS OF THE LOCAL SEX-TOURISM INDUSTRY AND, WHEN THEIR FORCED LABOR RESULTED IN PREGNANCIES, THEY WERE THEN ORDERED TO OBTAIN ABORTIONS.
In response to the nightmare taking place on the island, a bill was introduced into Congress that would have imposed U.S. federal wage and worker safety laws on employers and, most importantly, bring an end to the terrible things being done to defenseless women.
Jack Abramoff was hired to stop passage of the bill. He, in turn, hired Phillips and Reed to execute on a unique strategy.
(as an aside not in the blog - SEE CASINO JACK DOCUMENTARY - THE ISLAND WAS AN ABRAMOFF CLIENT TO START - back to the blog below)
Mr. Phillips set out on a direct mail campaign , sending out flyers stating, in part -
THE RADICAL LEFT, THE BIG LABOR UNION BOSSES, AND BILL CLINTON WANT TO PASS A LAW PREVENTING CHINESE FROM COMING TO WORK ON THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. THE CHINESE WORKERS ARE EXPOSED TO THE TEACHINGS OF JESUS CHRIST” while on the islands, and many “are converted to the Christian faith and return to China with Bibles in hand.” claiming that the Chinese workers on the island “are exposed to the teachings of Jesus Christ” while on the islands, and many “are converted to the Christian faith and return to China with Bibles in hand. “
The mailers then encouraged the recipients to contact lawmakers and ask them to oppose the Marianas labor reform legislation.
You would think that two bible thumpers like Phillips and Reed would have reached the peak of depravity by taking money to side with those who force women into prostitution and abortion– but they had only just begun.
During the 2000 GOP primary battle between then Governor George Bush and Senator John McCain, a false campaign was conducted in South Carolina against John McCain. Leaflets, telephone calls and emails were sent to South Carolina voters, stating that McCain’s adopted daughter from Bangladesh was actually an illegitimate child fathered by the Senator with a black woman. The disgusting ploy worked and the McCain campaign never recovered.
While many observers of that event state as fact that the campaign was the handiwork of Century Strategies and its principals, Tim Phillips and Ralph Reed, their involvement has never been proven. However, one would be hard pressed to find anyone ‘in the know’ who is not certain that it was them.
What is proven, however, is the 2000 campaign conduced by Tim Phillips against none other than candidate Eric Cantor of Virginia. When hired by Cantor’s opponent in the primary, Phillips set up the Faith and Family Alliance which proceeded to engage in an anti-Semitic smear campaign against the future House majority leader. Once again, the M.O. involved using pamphlets and robo-calls to tell voters that Eric Cantor did not represent “Virginia values” and that his opponent was the “only Christian in the race.” In other words, Cantor was a Jew so don’t vote for him.
And it gets better.
It turns out that convicted lobbyist, Jack Abramoff, was using the Faith and Family Alliance, the organization founded by Tim Phillips, to launder gambling money in an effort to finance a campaign to stop Congress from banning internet gambling.
Here’s how it worked:
The money was laundered in three steps: cheques for the e-Lottery project were written out to the Americans for Tax Reform foundation; Americans for Tax Reform would then send a cheque to the Faith and Family Alliance; finally, the identical amount would be transferred from the Faith and Family Alliance to Century Strategies. Robin Vanderwall, the director of the Faith and Family Alliance has stated he “was operating a shell.”
THEN THERE WAS THE SUCCESSFUL SAXBY CHAMBLISS CAMPAIGN IN GEORGIA WHERE PHILLIPS PLAYED A PRIMARY ROLE IN ATTACKING SENATOR MAX CLELAND – A MAN WHO WON THE SILVER AND BRONZE STARS FOR VALOROUS ACTION IN COMBAT AND WHO GAVE UP TWO LEGS AND AN ARM AS A RESULT OF INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE VIET NAM WAR- FOR BEING SOFT ON NATIONAL SECURITY. In that campaign, a TV commercial ran accusing Cleland of being weak on defense by airing photos of Osama Bin Laden over a voice recounting Cleland’s voting record.
These are but a few of the exploits of Mr. Tim Phillips – a man allegedly possessed of great family values and commitment to religion who lobbied to continue forced prostitution and abortion; a man who claims to honor America’s veterans while destroying a true war hero for being soft on defense; a man who has played some of the most unethical and devious political tricks in the modern era.
PEOPLE OF GOOD INTENT CAN DISAGREE AS TO THE TRUE POLITICAL MOTIVATIONS OF THE KOCH BROTHERS. Some would argue that the brothers are true Americans who are doing what they believe is necessary to save America from itself. Some would argue that they are greedy oil barons out to snatch the last dollar off the table at the expense of the working people of the nation.
But there is one thing you can’t argue.
When you lay down with dogs you will surely wake up with fleas.
I've been around the block a few times, and I've met dunderheaded men that pretended to know about cars. I've also met interested, knowledgeable, talented lady mechanics that did solid work and explained their work to laymen. I've met bright lady computer techs and knumb skull guy computer techs. Testes do not guarantee proficiency (nor ovaries), and assuming the opposite has cost me LOADS of money.
I won't deny that there is an innate "gut reaction" that makes us trust men more than women with technical, "difficult" work. Most people should have grown out of that by the age of 25.
Though it isn't all bad, I guess. I've met many women that have gotten frighteningly good at something just to spite all us guys that try to act like we know better.
Poverty and economic depression are the American reality. Economic well being has always been a short period of promotion leading into debt that is deliberatly designed as unpayable. The western frontier absorbed the continuous flow of bankruted generations until now. Without the fiction of a place to go for a second chance, the American dream system of capitalism has hit the wall. Loco Lola says Hitler was right. Thanks RDuanewilling
1. The possible health effects of nuclear power should be weighed against the certain health effects of coal power.
"WASHINGTON — Health problems linked to aging coal-fired power plants shorten nearly 24,000 lives a year..." (though 90% of that is preventable if pollution control standards increased).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/
2. Clearly any future plants should have a passive safety design. That is, the plant safely shuts down without constant human control to keep it going. Sort of like the "dead man switch" on subways, if the operator, say,has a heart attack and lets go of the handle, the train stops. The B&W's proposed mPower modular nuclear reactor is designed in this way. Indeed since it can be air cooled, it can power down safety even in the absence of a water supply (the air cool design, while about 15% less efficient than if it were water cooled, allows for nuclear plant sites to be located away from rivers and oceans).
3. Since Uncle Sam is ultimately footing the bill, with tax breaks, loan guarantees and by providing catastrophic insurance. However, there's no reason to socialize the risks while privatizing the profits. The Army Corps of Engineers has built and operates dozens of hydroelectic plants on federal reservoirs and sells the power to private utilities. Likewise, the Navy (with its more than 50 years of reactor experince) could do the same for nuclear plants on federal lands.
You want a low, but non-zero, rate of losses in a successful counter-insurgency campaign; you don't want lots of your people getting killed, but you don't want none of them ever getting killed either, because you don't want them to forget they're playing for keeps and fuck up in ways that get lots of them killed.
And, hey, thinking of the domestic propaganda applications too (since it'd be all domestic anyway): how useful would a young, burgeoning fascist regime find the occasional incident of armed resistance which practically begs to be spun into Terrorism from which the Leader and the State must Defend the People? Pretty damn useful, that's how.
And speaking of domestic propaganda, canceling the Second Amendment would only really play with left-wing anti-gun types anyway, and since any modern fascist regime in the US is going to designate exactly those people among the main categories of Enemy, I'm not even sure how it would make sense in the first place.
It'd be like the Nazi regime doing something that only had a visible benefit to Jews: not likely in the first place because the Nazi regime hated Jews, and *really* not likely in the second place because Jew-hate was one of the things giving them power, and thus by vitiating it in any way they'd only be harming themselves.
Sheesh, you Second Amendment types, it's like you're so deeply invested in that one particular thing that that gradually lose the ability to see the world from any other perspective. Oh, wait...
It all makes perfect sense, especially the repatriation of funds for rebuilding. I did wonder if this might result in some serious tooling up of Toyota and Honda plants here?
The main article didn't have anything in it on death models. In the comment section, I quoted a Washington Post article which relied on several authorities. You sound authoritative but I wonder how you can be tired of hearing claims like those found in the Post and elsewhere. The crisis is only a few days old.
Pointing out the low death rate from nuclear power compared to coal is accurate. One could also point out the nonexistent death rate from nuclear terrorism compared to other forms. Would that give us any solace. Hardly. All it takes is one major event to create devastation. I hope that isn't the case in Japan but, views opposed to yours about the exposure of the meltdown to the atmosphere are out there with authorities cited. If there is a complete meltdown and radiation is released, we have to rely on the weather to protect 103 million people. This energy source is ridiculous.
As for California, quite frankly, Diablo Canyon is one of those stories that ends up in histories of great social declines. A major fault line was discovered in 1965, before construction began. What lunacy it takes to continue after that discovery. PG&E read the blueprints for the pipe supports backwards then claimed that they fixed the problem. How could PG&E be trusted to fix any problem after making such a stunning error. Then we have the new offshore fault within a mile of the plant. PG&E says it's all good and USGS says they don't know, both PG&E and USGS. The Chief Scientist at USGS said it was plausible, given what is known now, to consider that the new fault may run under the Diablo Canyon Reactor.
Who in their right mind would build a nuclear plant in such a dangerous area?
Your suggestion that "newer and safer" plants be built in "safer locations" is tacit admission that the older plants pose risks and that their locations are vulnerable. We agree. Allowing the same system to select "safe" technology and locations won't work any better than a process that allows Wall Street to create new rules and regulations in a fairer equities and derivatives market. It won't happen because it can't. Screwing up is at the basic core of the people involved.
In Japan, it was workers who discovered safety problems that led to the Tokyo power scandal forcing executives out because they took dangerous shortcuts on safety. It will be no different anywhere else, probably worse. Given the the magnitude of deaths and injuries from a full scale nuclear catastrophe, the players involved, and the number of plants operating, we can't afford to use this technology. It makes no sense in terms of risk to humans and no actuarial sense.
On a practical level, US nuclear is dead after Fukushima I. What state will fund this? How will Obama's giveaways in the American Power Act survive when the public finds out that bailouts are used to fund nuclear power plants? What private source of funding will invest in these plants? It's over. Alternatives, including extremely serious conservation efforts are the order of the day.
But to put Nuclear reactors on and near fault lines is just beyond stupid.
As bad as this is, I think that saying that ignores Japan's position in the world. 99.8% of Japan's oil, and all of the country's coal are imported according to the latest IEA numbers.
Building nuclear plants allows them a level of self-reliance that might otherwise be missing. Assuming I'm not messing up the conversion factors. Japan got 258128 Gwh from nukes in 2008. Converted to oil equivalent, that's the same as 1.15 million barrels daily. That would increase Japanese oil imports by 30%. Or in coal equivalent, that's 86 million tonnes of coal. Or about 75% of all the coal exported from Australia in a year. In short. Nukes aren't great, but they're the best that the Japanese can do short of a serious offshore wind, tidal, and wave program.
That said. Looking at Fukushima, annual capacity factor was about 62%. Implied from that is the need to replace about 3000 Mwh of generating capacity. This is presumably going to be a problem for some time. It seems a strong possibility that for the moment, this generation is going to be kicked off onto the older oil-fired electric plants. So around 21-22K barrels daily to replace the plant. Bad for them, but not likely to have a huge effect for us.
I think that the real impact in the US is going to be disruptions in the supply chain between parts factories in Japan and transplant factories in the US. Even more, it looks Toyota's small car exports to the US market will be hit because plants were located in the region. Also, repatriation of Japanese investments abroad for rebuilding will likely drive the value of the yen up. This is at a time when it is already at historical highs. So logistical difficulties + plus yen appreciation= serious trouble for the transplants. Depending on how easy it is for the US supplier base to produce parts previously imported from Japan, this could be a huge issue.
Quote: "If a full meltdown occurs, a huge molten lump of radioactive material would burn through all containment, destroy the building and fall to the ground, exposed. A toxic stew of exotic radioactive particles would then spread on the wind and rain."
What evidence do you have to suggest that a full meltdown of the core would mean containment breach? I'm frankly getting tired of these kinds of claims.
The slightly radioactive steam that was release (as it designed to during such situations) decays very quickly to background. If you have any information on what was released you could say otherwise I haven't seen any evidence of highly radioactive lease that would result in long term contamination or danger to the public safety.
The disaster at Fukushima I is less than the disaster regarding the hydroelectro dam that was destroyed and certainly less the oil refinery but nobody cares about those disasters because they are so common.
No infrastructure is design to withstand a 9.0 quake and then level 7 tsunami but yet the safety containment seems to survived something far beyond what it was built for and you guys reach the conclusion that building these plants just isn't safe. I fail to see the logic.
So far only one person has been confirmed dead because of the plant disaster whereas more than 10,000 have died because of the Earthquake. You cited a simulation (meaning made up like derivatives value estimates) no doubt using the linear theshold model (it's kinda like the Birth Death Model for Jobs) on possible cancer deaths but you failed to compare it to radioactive emissions from coal and actual cancer rates for coal workers or how about natural gas and that nasty radon.
All energy production produces waste. Good engineers know that perfection is the enemy of better and the doable.
Taking down the plants in California would take down 20% or our energy which would be replaced by natural gas plants and I suggest you watch Gasland. I live in California and I don't want the facking polluting our supply and thereby our food.
I suggest we build newer and safer plants in better locations here in California because ours near the end of their life cycles anyway. As for the so called "waste" pools. Here's an idea; remove Carter's stupid ban on reprocessing and recycle the fuel rather have it sit around becoming a hazardous waste site. Waste not Want Not and keep the place clean.
It might be interesting to see if the emergency diesel generators were mentioned in the scandal with TAPCO back in 2002-2003. That would be highly significant. I'm sure some able prosecutor for the Japanese government is looking into that, as we speak. Quite a story, isn't it?
Yes, I'll grant that the older plants are not as safe as they could be but that is true of any old technology.
I didn't mean to imply our current plants are totally unsafe but that they are only safe within the levels of disaster they were designed to deal with.
You can't argue like certain free market types that because planning isn't perfect we give up on it.
You are correct that Wall Street and other companies shouldn't be trusted but since I am a populist I believe that infrastructure should be publicly owned and run not outsourced to some profit seeking private companies who has every incentive to drive up profit by cutting corners.
How privatized is Tokyo power? I'm wondering if any of the safety lapses could be the result of a partial privatization scheme.
As for the so-called Nuclear Bailout those were loan guarantees which the Industry has to pay for and thus the Government usually makes money those rather losing it.
I could bring up the tax credits for windmills and other give aways but one has understand that most Nuclear subsidy is R&D for fusion and particle accelerators (bangs head against wall).
Most energy subsidies are for fossil fuels and I would support any leveling of the distribution. Say with 10 sources of energy (Coal, Oil, Fossil Gas,Solar, Wind, Hydro,Tidal, Geothermal, Fission, Fusion)give them each 10% of total energy subsidies and I guarantee that Fission, Hydro, and Geothermal will end up on top. It's just the way physics will work with EROI.
You are essentially correct that US nuclear is likely dead and all that means is more coal and natural gas while the Chinese, Indians, and South Koreans kick our asses right out the Hi-Tech Nuclear export industry.
We could be mature, upgrade the existing plants and design much safer Gen IV modular factory build plants and regain our high tech and heavy industry exports but that would political leadership not filled with overreactor political types. So go long on Fossils and lung disease, short US tech development.
Pretty incredible, the electric cooling pumps failed and then the diesel failed and then the battery backups failed.
This is like "who could have guessed", almost deja vu from the BP situation, although BP doesn't have a megaquake/tsunami to blame.
Still, there are blasts going off and finally on the news we're hearing a similar history with this company they give a lot of misinformation.
Great. Even worse, where I am in the states is in the gulf stream flow.
The final containment structure is being reported as to have cracked, but not confirmed...that's REALLY BAD NEWS if so.
WTO judges ... NAFTA courts ...
Constitution of the United States?
The big question on engineering standards (and possibly on cover-ups of failure to test and maintain) concerns the emergency diesel generators that resulted in failure of pumps at a crucial point. Remains to be seen ... and may never be seen ...
I am not a big fan of MSM, to say the least. However, whatever your definition of 'meltdown' ...
Containment apparently has been breached. Outer containment walls have been reported as destroyed. Water level keeps falling within inner containment vessel. It's too early to pronounce that there has been no breach in containment. To some extent, at least, it appears that there has been exactly that.
As for the number about Japan's loss of electric power, that likely is reporting the loss of power available and in use over the entire grid. There is a problem in connecting the grid from west to east, due to difference from 50 cycle to 60 cycle. Much of the affected region has reduced number of hours in anticipation of interruption of oil/gas imports, due to necessary repairs of port facility infrastructure.
I would not suggest that worry solves anything, but jumping to conclusions in reaction to MSM reporting is equally a waste of time.
The irony of it is that the "wars for US hegemony" are accomplishing global hegemony of the People's Republic of China!
... yet none dare call it treason!
BTW: Why is it so impossible to enact -- even to bring into the public discussion -- the War Profiteering Prevention Act? And how can the apologists for "our" wars possibly also advocate for anything but increased taxes on the greatest fortunes and largest incomes within the U.S. economy?
Yet there is no voice in mainstream media nor in all of right-wing talkdom, pointing out the cognitive dissonance in a policy of reducing taxes in a time of war. And where are the voices in Congress reminding the people that if a war is worth fighting, it is worth sacrifice at all levels of society?
Do Americans really believe in these wars? And how much longer can the U.S. expect to continue to maintain the appearance of superpower "hegemony" without full support of the people?
Whatever their pretenses to righteosness and patriotism, those who perpetrate systematic fraud on the people of the United States of America are well aware of the situation described by Sun Tzu (at classics.mit.edu):
Is there a good argument against the proposition that, at some point, amassing of fortunes by whatever means possible, to invest anywhere but in the U.S.A. and notably in a nation that is clearly our greatest strategic adversary, inevitably degenerates into a form of treason?
Any substantial effort to compensate for power in this country should be a public utility, period. The Tokyo power company (TEPCO) that built this plant had a scandal concerning safety in 2002-2003 showing executives (subsequently removed) avoided prudent safety concerns raised by workers. Diablo Canyon, a management mess of epic proportions, is another exemplar of the private sector dealing with deadly energy. ENRON's fleecing of California is another reason to go public. The city of Los Angeles had no crazy price fluctuations at the same time the rest of the state, private power, was get.
This is the listing of reactors at Fukushima I. I'm talking about the right plant and the reactors that were in question when the article was writtten, reactors 1-3.
This information came from Wikipedia, which had updated their information just after the eartquake. There is no confusion about reactors and the primary plant for the explosion. Here's information on Fukushima II.
On coal, great point. It's another absurdist, nihilist solution. Now we have "clean" coal, a neologism.
We'll see how this evolves. I wish the Japanese people all the best and fondly recall the two months I spent there on business during the 1980's, a wonderful experience in Tokyo.
10% versus 4%
Here is a direct quote from the US Energy Information Administration:
Nuclear (Japan)
Japan currently has 54 operating nuclear reactors with a total installed generating capacity of around 49 GW, making it the third-largest nuclear power generator in the world behind the United States and France. EIA preliminary data shows that Japan produced 244 BKwh of nuclear-generated electricity in 2008. The government plans to increase nuclear's share of total electricity generation from 24 percent in 2008 to 40 percent by 2017 and to 50 percent by 2030, according to the Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry.
Here is the information on Fukushima I:
These light water reactors have a combined power of 4.7 GW, making Fukushima I one of the 25 largest nuclear power stations in the world.
Looks like the 10% I cited (well, unrounded, it's 9.5918%)
Doubling that was stated as an assumption since we're looking at automatic shutdowns and reinspections. Given the scandal ridden history of nuclear power in Japan, it is reasonable to assume that some additional percent of nuclear electrical generation would be added to the 10%. I just doubled it. Even at 10%, it's a huge hit to the economy.
1) a melting of control rods to some degree is possible, even likely, but this is NOT a meltdown
2) Even in a 'meltdown' situation, there are degrees. Melting of the control rods but preservation of containment is a far cry from a mass of radioactive and red hot material burning its way into the water supply.
3) The number quoted regarding Japan's loss of electric power is ridiculous.
Fukushima #1 represents perhaps 4% at most. This is still very serious, but is a far cry from 10% or larger numbers. You're confusing the different REACTORS at Fukushima #1 with the different PLANTS: Fukushima #1, Fukushima #2, etc.
4) The fact that there hasn't been breach in containment thus far almost certainly guarantees that there won't be.
A much better article explaining the details and circumstances around this tragedy:
http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-...
This is incredible, an engineer who "stole" code they are looking at giving him 10 years for snatching software he wrote while out the door to a new company...
i.e. taking his work product with him.
Ok, but compare that to all of the executives who get jack, zip, nada, nothing, including AIG financial products and Countrywide.
So, if you're an executive you can commit all of the fraud and crime you want, yet if you are a geek, lordy they are gunning after you?
Different rules for different job roles?
No surprise with the Japanese stock market plunging about $275 billion too.
Seems we're not the only ones watching the unfolding nuclear reactors.
reference on GE shares.
see the below post (on a business pub no less)
http://blogs.forbes.com/rickungar/2011/03/08/koch-brothers-key-political...
Koch Brothers Key Political Employee Has Dark And Disturbing Past 3-8-11 By RICK UNGAR
It is often said that you can judge a person by the company they keep.
If this is true, it is small wonder that billionaire libertarians Charles and David Koch have become notorious in the eyes of many Americans.
TIM PHILLIPS, the man who heads up the Americans For Prosperity group that serves as a political front for the brothers Koch (David serves as Chairman of the organization), and is leading the effort to support Gov. Scott Walker’s attempt to neuter the public employee unions in Wisconsin, is a key cog in the Koch political machine – earning in excess of $250,000 for his services in 2009 (latest tax filing data available.)
FOLLOWING MR. PHILLIPS’ CAREER IS LIKE TIPTOEING THROUGH SOME OF THE MOST NOTABLE POLITICAL DIRTY TRICKS AND LOBBYING SCANDALS IN MODERN HISTORY.
Here is a sampling of some of Phillips’ ‘greatest hits’.
In 1997, Phillips hooked up with Christian Coalition boss, Ralph Reed, to create Century Strategies, a political strategy and direct marketing group. The firm advertised themselves as being dedicated to mounting ‘grassroots lobbying campaigns’ and exploiting their ability to impact on legislation by using their strong connections to the leaders in the Christian community.
THE NEW BUSINESS GOT OFF TO A NICE START WHEN KARL ROVE REFERRED THEIR FIRST MAJOR CORPORATE CLIENT – ENRON. While Century Strategies efforts to pressure Congress to alter energy policy in ways that benefited their client paid off – both in legislative success for Enron and financial success for Phillips and Reed- there is little to suggest that anything they did was unethical.
But many opportunities would lay ahead as THE FIRM ENTERED THE BIG TIME WHEN PHILLIPS AND REED JOINED UP WITH NOTORIOUS LOBBYIST AND FUTURE CONVICT, JACK ABRAMOFF.
It was the NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, a small speck of land in the Atlantic that provided Phillips and Reed with the opportunity to show what they could really do.
The Marianas are a U.S. protectorate and, as a result of their status, manufacturing done on the island qualifies the goods they produce to be labeled “Made In The USA.”
Unfortunately, the working conditions on the island brought the meaning of ’sweat shop’ to unprecedented lows.
It wasn’t enough for the operators on the Marianas to PAY THEIR WORKERS MEAGER, UNLIVABLE WAGES. TO BOOST REVENUES, CHINESE WOMEN WERE FORCED BY THEIR EMPLOYERS INTO PROSTITUTION TO SATISFY THE NEEDS OF THE LOCAL SEX-TOURISM INDUSTRY AND, WHEN THEIR FORCED LABOR RESULTED IN PREGNANCIES, THEY WERE THEN ORDERED TO OBTAIN ABORTIONS.
In response to the nightmare taking place on the island, a bill was introduced into Congress that would have imposed U.S. federal wage and worker safety laws on employers and, most importantly, bring an end to the terrible things being done to defenseless women.
Jack Abramoff was hired to stop passage of the bill. He, in turn, hired Phillips and Reed to execute on a unique strategy.
(as an aside not in the blog - SEE CASINO JACK DOCUMENTARY - THE ISLAND WAS AN ABRAMOFF CLIENT TO START - back to the blog below)
Mr. Phillips set out on a direct mail campaign , sending out flyers stating, in part -
THE RADICAL LEFT, THE BIG LABOR UNION BOSSES, AND BILL CLINTON WANT TO PASS A LAW PREVENTING CHINESE FROM COMING TO WORK ON THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. THE CHINESE WORKERS ARE EXPOSED TO THE TEACHINGS OF JESUS CHRIST” while on the islands, and many “are converted to the Christian faith and return to China with Bibles in hand.” claiming that the Chinese workers on the island “are exposed to the teachings of Jesus Christ” while on the islands, and many “are converted to the Christian faith and return to China with Bibles in hand. “
The mailers then encouraged the recipients to contact lawmakers and ask them to oppose the Marianas labor reform legislation.
You would think that two bible thumpers like Phillips and Reed would have reached the peak of depravity by taking money to side with those who force women into prostitution and abortion– but they had only just begun.
During the 2000 GOP primary battle between then Governor George Bush and Senator John McCain, a false campaign was conducted in South Carolina against John McCain. Leaflets, telephone calls and emails were sent to South Carolina voters, stating that McCain’s adopted daughter from Bangladesh was actually an illegitimate child fathered by the Senator with a black woman. The disgusting ploy worked and the McCain campaign never recovered.
While many observers of that event state as fact that the campaign was the handiwork of Century Strategies and its principals, Tim Phillips and Ralph Reed, their involvement has never been proven. However, one would be hard pressed to find anyone ‘in the know’ who is not certain that it was them.
What is proven, however, is the 2000 campaign conduced by Tim Phillips against none other than candidate Eric Cantor of Virginia. When hired by Cantor’s opponent in the primary, Phillips set up the Faith and Family Alliance which proceeded to engage in an anti-Semitic smear campaign against the future House majority leader. Once again, the M.O. involved using pamphlets and robo-calls to tell voters that Eric Cantor did not represent “Virginia values” and that his opponent was the “only Christian in the race.” In other words, Cantor was a Jew so don’t vote for him.
And it gets better.
It turns out that convicted lobbyist, Jack Abramoff, was using the Faith and Family Alliance, the organization founded by Tim Phillips, to launder gambling money in an effort to finance a campaign to stop Congress from banning internet gambling.
Here’s how it worked:
The money was laundered in three steps: cheques for the e-Lottery project were written out to the Americans for Tax Reform foundation; Americans for Tax Reform would then send a cheque to the Faith and Family Alliance; finally, the identical amount would be transferred from the Faith and Family Alliance to Century Strategies. Robin Vanderwall, the director of the Faith and Family Alliance has stated he “was operating a shell.”
THEN THERE WAS THE SUCCESSFUL SAXBY CHAMBLISS CAMPAIGN IN GEORGIA WHERE PHILLIPS PLAYED A PRIMARY ROLE IN ATTACKING SENATOR MAX CLELAND – A MAN WHO WON THE SILVER AND BRONZE STARS FOR VALOROUS ACTION IN COMBAT AND WHO GAVE UP TWO LEGS AND AN ARM AS A RESULT OF INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE VIET NAM WAR- FOR BEING SOFT ON NATIONAL SECURITY. In that campaign, a TV commercial ran accusing Cleland of being weak on defense by airing photos of Osama Bin Laden over a voice recounting Cleland’s voting record.
These are but a few of the exploits of Mr. Tim Phillips – a man allegedly possessed of great family values and commitment to religion who lobbied to continue forced prostitution and abortion; a man who claims to honor America’s veterans while destroying a true war hero for being soft on defense; a man who has played some of the most unethical and devious political tricks in the modern era.
PEOPLE OF GOOD INTENT CAN DISAGREE AS TO THE TRUE POLITICAL MOTIVATIONS OF THE KOCH BROTHERS. Some would argue that the brothers are true Americans who are doing what they believe is necessary to save America from itself. Some would argue that they are greedy oil barons out to snatch the last dollar off the table at the expense of the working people of the nation.
But there is one thing you can’t argue.
When you lay down with dogs you will surely wake up with fleas.
I've been around the block a few times, and I've met dunderheaded men that pretended to know about cars. I've also met interested, knowledgeable, talented lady mechanics that did solid work and explained their work to laymen. I've met bright lady computer techs and knumb skull guy computer techs. Testes do not guarantee proficiency (nor ovaries), and assuming the opposite has cost me LOADS of money.
I won't deny that there is an innate "gut reaction" that makes us trust men more than women with technical, "difficult" work. Most people should have grown out of that by the age of 25.
Though it isn't all bad, I guess. I've met many women that have gotten frighteningly good at something just to spite all us guys that try to act like we know better.
Poverty and economic depression are the American reality. Economic well being has always been a short period of promotion leading into debt that is deliberatly designed as unpayable. The western frontier absorbed the continuous flow of bankruted generations until now. Without the fiction of a place to go for a second chance, the American dream system of capitalism has hit the wall. Loco Lola says Hitler was right. Thanks RDuanewilling
1. The possible health effects of nuclear power should be weighed against the certain health effects of coal power.
"WASHINGTON — Health problems linked to aging coal-fired power plants shorten nearly 24,000 lives a year..." (though 90% of that is preventable if pollution control standards increased).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5174391/ns/us_news-environment/
2. Clearly any future plants should have a passive safety design. That is, the plant safely shuts down without constant human control to keep it going. Sort of like the "dead man switch" on subways, if the operator, say,has a heart attack and lets go of the handle, the train stops. The B&W's proposed mPower modular nuclear reactor is designed in this way. Indeed since it can be air cooled, it can power down safety even in the absence of a water supply (the air cool design, while about 15% less efficient than if it were water cooled, allows for nuclear plant sites to be located away from rivers and oceans).
3. Since Uncle Sam is ultimately footing the bill, with tax breaks, loan guarantees and by providing catastrophic insurance. However, there's no reason to socialize the risks while privatizing the profits. The Army Corps of Engineers has built and operates dozens of hydroelectic plants on federal reservoirs and sells the power to private utilities. Likewise, the Navy (with its more than 50 years of reactor experince) could do the same for nuclear plants on federal lands.
You want a low, but non-zero, rate of losses in a successful counter-insurgency campaign; you don't want lots of your people getting killed, but you don't want none of them ever getting killed either, because you don't want them to forget they're playing for keeps and fuck up in ways that get lots of them killed.
And, hey, thinking of the domestic propaganda applications too (since it'd be all domestic anyway): how useful would a young, burgeoning fascist regime find the occasional incident of armed resistance which practically begs to be spun into Terrorism from which the Leader and the State must Defend the People? Pretty damn useful, that's how.
And speaking of domestic propaganda, canceling the Second Amendment would only really play with left-wing anti-gun types anyway, and since any modern fascist regime in the US is going to designate exactly those people among the main categories of Enemy, I'm not even sure how it would make sense in the first place.
It'd be like the Nazi regime doing something that only had a visible benefit to Jews: not likely in the first place because the Nazi regime hated Jews, and *really* not likely in the second place because Jew-hate was one of the things giving them power, and thus by vitiating it in any way they'd only be harming themselves.
Sheesh, you Second Amendment types, it's like you're so deeply invested in that one particular thing that that gradually lose the ability to see the world from any other perspective. Oh, wait...
It all makes perfect sense, especially the repatriation of funds for rebuilding. I did wonder if this might result in some serious tooling up of Toyota and Honda plants here?
The main article didn't have anything in it on death models. In the comment section, I quoted a Washington Post article which relied on several authorities. You sound authoritative but I wonder how you can be tired of hearing claims like those found in the Post and elsewhere. The crisis is only a few days old.
Pointing out the low death rate from nuclear power compared to coal is accurate. One could also point out the nonexistent death rate from nuclear terrorism compared to other forms. Would that give us any solace. Hardly. All it takes is one major event to create devastation. I hope that isn't the case in Japan but, views opposed to yours about the exposure of the meltdown to the atmosphere are out there with authorities cited. If there is a complete meltdown and radiation is released, we have to rely on the weather to protect 103 million people. This energy source is ridiculous.
As for California, quite frankly, Diablo Canyon is one of those stories that ends up in histories of great social declines. A major fault line was discovered in 1965, before construction began. What lunacy it takes to continue after that discovery. PG&E read the blueprints for the pipe supports backwards then claimed that they fixed the problem. How could PG&E be trusted to fix any problem after making such a stunning error. Then we have the new offshore fault within a mile of the plant. PG&E says it's all good and USGS says they don't know, both PG&E and USGS. The Chief Scientist at USGS said it was plausible, given what is known now, to consider that the new fault may run under the Diablo Canyon Reactor.
Who in their right mind would build a nuclear plant in such a dangerous area?
Your suggestion that "newer and safer" plants be built in "safer locations" is tacit admission that the older plants pose risks and that their locations are vulnerable. We agree. Allowing the same system to select "safe" technology and locations won't work any better than a process that allows Wall Street to create new rules and regulations in a fairer equities and derivatives market. It won't happen because it can't. Screwing up is at the basic core of the people involved.
In Japan, it was workers who discovered safety problems that led to the Tokyo power scandal forcing executives out because they took dangerous shortcuts on safety. It will be no different anywhere else, probably worse. Given the the magnitude of deaths and injuries from a full scale nuclear catastrophe, the players involved, and the number of plants operating, we can't afford to use this technology. It makes no sense in terms of risk to humans and no actuarial sense.
On a practical level, US nuclear is dead after Fukushima I. What state will fund this? How will Obama's giveaways in the American Power Act survive when the public finds out that bailouts are used to fund nuclear power plants? What private source of funding will invest in these plants? It's over. Alternatives, including extremely serious conservation efforts are the order of the day.
As bad as this is, I think that saying that ignores Japan's position in the world. 99.8% of Japan's oil, and all of the country's coal are imported according to the latest IEA numbers.
Building nuclear plants allows them a level of self-reliance that might otherwise be missing. Assuming I'm not messing up the conversion factors. Japan got 258128 Gwh from nukes in 2008. Converted to oil equivalent, that's the same as 1.15 million barrels daily. That would increase Japanese oil imports by 30%. Or in coal equivalent, that's 86 million tonnes of coal. Or about 75% of all the coal exported from Australia in a year. In short. Nukes aren't great, but they're the best that the Japanese can do short of a serious offshore wind, tidal, and wave program.
That said. Looking at Fukushima, annual capacity factor was about 62%. Implied from that is the need to replace about 3000 Mwh of generating capacity. This is presumably going to be a problem for some time. It seems a strong possibility that for the moment, this generation is going to be kicked off onto the older oil-fired electric plants. So around 21-22K barrels daily to replace the plant. Bad for them, but not likely to have a huge effect for us.
I think that the real impact in the US is going to be disruptions in the supply chain between parts factories in Japan and transplant factories in the US. Even more, it looks Toyota's small car exports to the US market will be hit because plants were located in the region. Also, repatriation of Japanese investments abroad for rebuilding will likely drive the value of the yen up. This is at a time when it is already at historical highs. So logistical difficulties + plus yen appreciation= serious trouble for the transplants. Depending on how easy it is for the US supplier base to produce parts previously imported from Japan, this could be a huge issue.
Quote: "If a full meltdown occurs, a huge molten lump of radioactive material would burn through all containment, destroy the building and fall to the ground, exposed. A toxic stew of exotic radioactive particles would then spread on the wind and rain."
What evidence do you have to suggest that a full meltdown of the core would mean containment breach? I'm frankly getting tired of these kinds of claims.
The slightly radioactive steam that was release (as it designed to during such situations) decays very quickly to background. If you have any information on what was released you could say otherwise I haven't seen any evidence of highly radioactive lease that would result in long term contamination or danger to the public safety.
Nuclear still has the lowest deaths per TerraWattt Hour of any power generation source "see http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html#more" and any decrease in nuclear means more deaths by fossil fuels and falling, drowning, etc...
The disaster at Fukushima I is less than the disaster regarding the hydroelectro dam that was destroyed and certainly less the oil refinery but nobody cares about those disasters because they are so common.
No infrastructure is design to withstand a 9.0 quake and then level 7 tsunami but yet the safety containment seems to survived something far beyond what it was built for and you guys reach the conclusion that building these plants just isn't safe. I fail to see the logic.
So far only one person has been confirmed dead because of the plant disaster whereas more than 10,000 have died because of the Earthquake. You cited a simulation (meaning made up like derivatives value estimates) no doubt using the linear theshold model (it's kinda like the Birth Death Model for Jobs) on possible cancer deaths but you failed to compare it to radioactive emissions from coal and actual cancer rates for coal workers or how about natural gas and that nasty radon.
All energy production produces waste. Good engineers know that perfection is the enemy of better and the doable.
Taking down the plants in California would take down 20% or our energy which would be replaced by natural gas plants and I suggest you watch Gasland. I live in California and I don't want the facking polluting our supply and thereby our food.
I suggest we build newer and safer plants in better locations here in California because ours near the end of their life cycles anyway. As for the so called "waste" pools. Here's an idea; remove Carter's stupid ban on reprocessing and recycle the fuel rather have it sit around becoming a hazardous waste site. Waste not Want Not and keep the place clean.
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