The September Trade deficit came in at $44Bn. China has now replaced Oil for the lions share. We are permitted to refer to the Trade Deficit and other economic phenomenon as the China Deficit.
Yeah $500Bn is a big deal in the middle of a depression and $400Bn is a big deal for the $500Bn. As you nailed it Bob, this deficit is strangling economic growth. In the simplest terms, a negative or subtract of 3.5% of GDP. Imagine the U.S. economy growing at
5%, and we understand a big part of this crisis.
People react when they see this massive money supply and things like QE2. It is scary! The first time I saw the money supply graph it scared me, but that said, people don't realize money velocity is another part of that equation and money...ain't moving.
With Bernanke's move of QE2, people fear we're heading towards hyperinflation. No, we're not. Inflation is near zero as it is and what people do not realize is the Great Depression had serious deflation.
You'll see me question QE2 as stimulating much domestically too, and all of these people need to demand Congress and this administration sharply curtail the offshore outsourcing of U.S. jobs and do something about the trade deficit, China.
People also flip out at the debt, yet don't look into the tax code, which is obscure, to see a government needs revenues or the actual breakdown of the budget. Sure it needs to be cut but the government also needs revenues...
of course Congress and Obama aren't helping things by bailing out the Banksters and Wall Street, more and more people just want to drown government in a bathtub (Grover Norquist) simply because government actions in large part, left the middle class as well as the will of the people behind.
I'm fond of the art that was produced during that period. The German Expressionist film makers were the epitome of cinematic art. Brecht, Kafka, and Erich Maria Remarque were powerful writers and social commentators. Hartfield, Ernst, and Grosz are remarkable.
Unfortunately, the Weimar Republic took the blame for the consequences of the Kaiser's madness and, at the same time, did little to address the needs of the people. We're not there yet, but, in our own way, we maybe headed that way:
The right posed a graver threat to the Weimar Republic than did the extreme left because it enjoyed the support of most of Germany's establishment: the military, the financial elites, the state bureaucracy, the educational system, and much of the press. Unlike political parties in well-established democracies, the right-wing parties in the Reichstag could not be considered a loyal opposition because their ultimate aim was to abolish the new system of government. The right opposed democracy and desired to establish a conservative authoritarian regime. German Culture
I remember Stockman from way back. What a reasoned outline of the issues. The Empire project is going nowhere, unless alienating every potential customer for US exports is the goal. It returns nothing. Homeland security needs to justify itself, in a serious way (and who started this "homeland" business?).
And here's an idea. The income basis for payroll taxes might be addressed without raising taxes across the board in a regressive way. Raising the income cap mindlessly would be a terrible idea since those right at it would get hammered. But having a gap and then raising it at a income point where the impact would be a much smaller percent of income should be considered.
Thanks for this. It's amazing the consensus you can achieve across the political spectrum when the commentators are intellectually honest.
Clean house. They're all in on this operation, have been for years.
The very people who say that 'the money will never be there' are the people making that abundantly clear. The shameless rhetoric will succumb to the bright light of public rage. This is the ultimate populist issue - the very few exploiting the many for purely financial gains. There's no victim group here, it's the 90% who pay into the system. The the bailout reaction will be nothing compared to this.
The government has the money in the same way that the Weimar Republic had the money. I'm referring to money backed by "the full faith and credit of the United States", which I referenced. "Faith based" financing falls short when the cast of characters constantly behave cynically.
Here's the full quote:
If there were absolutely no anticipated problems honoring the promised payout of the special issue securities, IOUs, this process might be acceptable. But mega deficits have become habitual behavior in the budget process. Year after year, the government spends money it doesn't have through the vehicle set up to tap your social security payroll taxes.
...at this point it's hard to argue that the Congre$$ is composed of anything other than fools and knaves, been reading my Mark Twain, and they may have to pay the ultimate price for their stupidity. Obama is certainly a goner if any part of SS is privatized.
But this may very well happen after the damage is done as the populace seems very, very clueless at the moment.
I do think it will be a big story and I do think far more folks know this is a scam than did so even as recently as a year ago. Let's hope they are numerous and vicious enough to...
Congress better not try to cut Social Security benefits, increase SS retirement age, or raise SS taxes on the middle class!
France just tried to do the same thing and they are still having riots.
But that's nothing compared to what millions of angry, aging American Baby Boomers can do! We have the experience of the 60's under our belts, and if we have to force Congress to keep their hands off of our Social Security, this time around, we will make the 60's look like the 50's.
Folks, The Economic Populist is an economics site. Please read the FAQ and the user guide, as well as the admin forum BEFORE writing anything! This site REQUIRES all posts be detailed, with CREDIBLE economic analysis, references and citations. That is everything on this site beyond writing a comment and participating in the discussion below posts. Posts are forum posts, or Instapopulists and blog posts.
POSTS WHICH VIOLATE THE SITE RULES WILL BE DELETED.
DO NOT WRITE POSTS TO ASK A QUESTION! DO NOT WRITE POSTS to STATE YOUR OPINION OR FEAR! If you have a question, opinion, please put it in a comment.
Keep the quality of the site up and there is plenty of action in the comments, you can track your discussions via your workspace. There you will see your comments and the replies to them.
Thanks for keeping the quality and credibility of The Economic Populist on maximum high.
given the depth of the recession we were bound to see an increase in the election of Republicans.
One has to wonder, however, what would have happened if Obama had:
1) more directly addressed the economy, especially
- helping those who have been hit the hardest (those who have lost their jobs and the financial security it provided),
- extending additional emergency unemployment for the 99-ers (whose benefits have or will run out),
- sought to help retirees (or soon to be retirees) depending on now-depleted 401Ks,
- seeking to have large corporations (many of whose profits should embarass them) increase their payments into UI funding,
- spent some of the stimulus money to HELP people with emergency food banks, etc., and,
- spent more of the stimulus money in job creation projects;
2) insisted on maintaining a public option during the healthcare debate (such as expanding Medicare for those wanting or needing it); better yet, made a real effort to consider a single payer system (the only real way to contain rising costs);
3) clearly insisted on continuing the military draw down and ending of involvement in both Iraq and Afghanistan,
4) gone after BP more directly in resolving the effects of the spill and making sure that they and their involved subcontractors such as Halliburton PAY for the disaster. (There are plenty of scientists and specialists in the field to let the "wolf be in charge of the henhouse.") And,
5) not backed down at every opportunity to name people with stirling credentials (such as Elizabeth Warren) to important positions whenever the Republican shills for corporate America cried NO;
... it's quite possible the Democrats could have kept their House majority.
but there are gold ETF's you could hedge and buy w/in your 401k, although it's at record highs so that might be a little too late, other precious metals are also soaring. You can buy other ETF's which are baskets of commodities.
I'm not lying with statistics here. Revolving credit is down and while it appears lending has relaxed a tad, can't say the same thing with credit cards and revolving credit will drop with the people's ability to pay (or should).
you can see it really does have almost a bell curve shape, not manipulating anything and that graph is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the statistics are from the Federal Reserve main.
So it seems we are all in agreement that all hell is going to break loose but, I for one don't know what to do I just know I need to do something to protect what little I have. So how about some proactive steps we can take.
I am all in 401k about 300k and 55 years old, I can't stomache the the penalities much less the taxs to take it. I am at a loss as to what to do.
Advice please
It was the Irish government that granted billions in tax breaks to multinational corporations, resulting in a huge loss of jobs in the United States. Microsoft, Google, ... moved jobs from the U.S. to Ireland to take advantage of the generous Irish corporate tax code.
Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes
Yet now we see that Ireland really couldn't afford giving those tax give-aways to multinationals. Unfortunately, it sounds like the burden of paying for bank bailouts is falling on regular Irish taxpayers and that the multinationals are again escaping paying their fair share.
"In other words, the Irish State is insolvent: its liabilities far exceed any realistic means of repaying them."
Looking at the y-axis carefully, one can see that the consumer revolving credit has declined from a peak which approached US$980 Billion in 2008, down to the September 2010 figure of under US$820 Billion. The chart is truncated, so as to be quite misleading, creating a tidy bell-shaped curve. In this chart which could have served as an example in the classic text, "How to Lie with Statistics," the apparent zero point is actually US$800 Billion. So consumer credit is down, but it is still frightenly above zero for an economy with 9.6 per cent unemployment and a fragile safety net.
Too late for guns and ammo, these items have outstripped inflation years ago! Add to that a continued ammo shortage. If you have them and lots of feed for them, your GTG. If you missed out, well its like gold-you missed out ans its too late. Look for custom gun companies to go out of business by spring 2011. All custom smiths are trying to figure if they can get away with huge custom gun price increases from commodity costs and general inflation. They know consumers won't buy so most smiths are planning to shut down next year! Just ask them-most aren't taking on anymore orders! The only gun and ammo companies that can stay affloat are the big ones that supply the military. In a way your tax dollars are buying more guns that you can't own, at prices increasingly you can't afford!
TBA, Les Baer, you guys are awsome, I'm sorry your country has let you down!
That's why I pound on China so much, they dominate the trade deficit so this isn't news per say. (although worth repeating!)
The September Trade deficit came in at $44Bn. China has now replaced Oil for the lions share. We are permitted to refer to the Trade Deficit and other economic phenomenon as the China Deficit.
Yeah $500Bn is a big deal in the middle of a depression and $400Bn is a big deal for the $500Bn. As you nailed it Bob, this deficit is strangling economic growth. In the simplest terms, a negative or subtract of 3.5% of GDP. Imagine the U.S. economy growing at
5%, and we understand a big part of this crisis.
Credits to the Sheep at the Gray Lady
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/business/economy/11econ.html?ref=business
People react when they see this massive money supply and things like QE2. It is scary! The first time I saw the money supply graph it scared me, but that said, people don't realize money velocity is another part of that equation and money...ain't moving.
With Bernanke's move of QE2, people fear we're heading towards hyperinflation. No, we're not. Inflation is near zero as it is and what people do not realize is the Great Depression had serious deflation.
You'll see me question QE2 as stimulating much domestically too, and all of these people need to demand Congress and this administration sharply curtail the offshore outsourcing of U.S. jobs and do something about the trade deficit, China.
People also flip out at the debt, yet don't look into the tax code, which is obscure, to see a government needs revenues or the actual breakdown of the budget. Sure it needs to be cut but the government also needs revenues...
of course Congress and Obama aren't helping things by bailing out the Banksters and Wall Street, more and more people just want to drown government in a bathtub (Grover Norquist) simply because government actions in large part, left the middle class as well as the will of the people behind.
Ben looks into it, like he knows what he's doing.
I fired of the link to Numerian.
I'm fond of the art that was produced during that period. The German Expressionist film makers were the epitome of cinematic art. Brecht, Kafka, and Erich Maria Remarque were powerful writers and social commentators. Hartfield, Ernst, and Grosz are remarkable.
Unfortunately, the Weimar Republic took the blame for the consequences of the Kaiser's madness and, at the same time, did little to address the needs of the people. We're not there yet, but, in our own way, we maybe headed that way:
I agree. We're at the point where this axiom applies to the White House and any of those claim a role in governance:
If they did it, there's probably something very wrong with it.
It's a seamless, unyielding tide of incompetence and greed.
I remember Stockman from way back. What a reasoned outline of the issues. The Empire project is going nowhere, unless alienating every potential customer for US exports is the goal. It returns nothing. Homeland security needs to justify itself, in a serious way (and who started this "homeland" business?).
And here's an idea. The income basis for payroll taxes might be addressed without raising taxes across the board in a regressive way. Raising the income cap mindlessly would be a terrible idea since those right at it would get hammered. But having a gap and then raising it at a income point where the impact would be a much smaller percent of income should be considered.
Thanks for this. It's amazing the consensus you can achieve across the political spectrum when the commentators are intellectually honest.
Clean house. They're all in on this operation, have been for years.
The very people who say that 'the money will never be there' are the people making that abundantly clear. The shameless rhetoric will succumb to the bright light of public rage. This is the ultimate populist issue - the very few exploiting the many for purely financial gains. There's no victim group here, it's the 90% who pay into the system. The the bailout reaction will be nothing compared to this.
The government has the money in the same way that the Weimar Republic had the money. I'm referring to money backed by "the full faith and credit of the United States", which I referenced. "Faith based" financing falls short when the cast of characters constantly behave cynically.
Here's the full quote:
Talks sense about the Defense Budget and Social Security.
...at this point it's hard to argue that the Congre$$ is composed of anything other than fools and knaves, been reading my Mark Twain, and they may have to pay the ultimate price for their stupidity. Obama is certainly a goner if any part of SS is privatized.
But this may very well happen after the damage is done as the populace seems very, very clueless at the moment.
I do think it will be a big story and I do think far more folks know this is a scam than did so even as recently as a year ago. Let's hope they are numerous and vicious enough to...
...kick some butt.
Congress better not try to cut Social Security benefits, increase SS retirement age, or raise SS taxes on the middle class!
France just tried to do the same thing and they are still having riots.
But that's nothing compared to what millions of angry, aging American Baby Boomers can do! We have the experience of the 60's under our belts, and if we have to force Congress to keep their hands off of our Social Security, this time around, we will make the 60's look like the 50's.
Folks, The Economic Populist is an economics site. Please read the FAQ and the user guide, as well as the admin forum BEFORE writing anything! This site REQUIRES all posts be detailed, with CREDIBLE economic analysis, references and citations. That is everything on this site beyond writing a comment and participating in the discussion below posts. Posts are forum posts, or Instapopulists and blog posts.
POSTS WHICH VIOLATE THE SITE RULES WILL BE DELETED.
DO NOT WRITE POSTS TO ASK A QUESTION! DO NOT WRITE POSTS to STATE YOUR OPINION OR FEAR! If you have a question, opinion, please put it in a comment.
Keep the quality of the site up and there is plenty of action in the comments, you can track your discussions via your workspace. There you will see your comments and the replies to them.
Thanks for keeping the quality and credibility of The Economic Populist on maximum high.
given the depth of the recession we were bound to see an increase in the election of Republicans.
One has to wonder, however, what would have happened if Obama had:
1) more directly addressed the economy, especially
- helping those who have been hit the hardest (those who have lost their jobs and the financial security it provided),
- extending additional emergency unemployment for the 99-ers (whose benefits have or will run out),
- sought to help retirees (or soon to be retirees) depending on now-depleted 401Ks,
- seeking to have large corporations (many of whose profits should embarass them) increase their payments into UI funding,
- spent some of the stimulus money to HELP people with emergency food banks, etc., and,
- spent more of the stimulus money in job creation projects;
2) insisted on maintaining a public option during the healthcare debate (such as expanding Medicare for those wanting or needing it); better yet, made a real effort to consider a single payer system (the only real way to contain rising costs);
3) clearly insisted on continuing the military draw down and ending of involvement in both Iraq and Afghanistan,
4) gone after BP more directly in resolving the effects of the spill and making sure that they and their involved subcontractors such as Halliburton PAY for the disaster. (There are plenty of scientists and specialists in the field to let the "wolf be in charge of the henhouse.") And,
5) not backed down at every opportunity to name people with stirling credentials (such as Elizabeth Warren) to important positions whenever the Republican shills for corporate America cried NO;
... it's quite possible the Democrats could have kept their House majority.
but there are gold ETF's you could hedge and buy w/in your 401k, although it's at record highs so that might be a little too late, other precious metals are also soaring. You can buy other ETF's which are baskets of commodities.
I'm not lying with statistics here. Revolving credit is down and while it appears lending has relaxed a tad, can't say the same thing with credit cards and revolving credit will drop with the people's ability to pay (or should).
Go here and make your own graph:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=REVOLSL#
you can see it really does have almost a bell curve shape, not manipulating anything and that graph is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the statistics are from the Federal Reserve main.
So it seems we are all in agreement that all hell is going to break loose but, I for one don't know what to do I just know I need to do something to protect what little I have. So how about some proactive steps we can take.
I am all in 401k about 300k and 55 years old, I can't stomache the the penalities much less the taxs to take it. I am at a loss as to what to do.
Advice please
It was the Irish government that granted billions in tax breaks to multinational corporations, resulting in a huge loss of jobs in the United States. Microsoft, Google, ... moved jobs from the U.S. to Ireland to take advantage of the generous Irish corporate tax code.
Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes
Yet now we see that Ireland really couldn't afford giving those tax give-aways to multinationals. Unfortunately, it sounds like the burden of paying for bank bailouts is falling on regular Irish taxpayers and that the multinationals are again escaping paying their fair share.
"In other words, the Irish State is insolvent: its liabilities far exceed any realistic means of repaying them."
Looking at the y-axis carefully, one can see that the consumer revolving credit has declined from a peak which approached US$980 Billion in 2008, down to the September 2010 figure of under US$820 Billion. The chart is truncated, so as to be quite misleading, creating a tidy bell-shaped curve. In this chart which could have served as an example in the classic text, "How to Lie with Statistics," the apparent zero point is actually US$800 Billion. So consumer credit is down, but it is still frightenly above zero for an economy with 9.6 per cent unemployment and a fragile safety net.
Too late for guns and ammo, these items have outstripped inflation years ago! Add to that a continued ammo shortage. If you have them and lots of feed for them, your GTG. If you missed out, well its like gold-you missed out ans its too late. Look for custom gun companies to go out of business by spring 2011. All custom smiths are trying to figure if they can get away with huge custom gun price increases from commodity costs and general inflation. They know consumers won't buy so most smiths are planning to shut down next year! Just ask them-most aren't taking on anymore orders! The only gun and ammo companies that can stay affloat are the big ones that supply the military. In a way your tax dollars are buying more guns that you can't own, at prices increasingly you can't afford!
TBA, Les Baer, you guys are awsome, I'm sorry your country has let you down!
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