You refer to India as an ‘emerging economy’, and in other places China also. What is the definition of an emerging economy? When do they cross the threshold to ‘emerged’? Because the way they are kicking our backsides they sure seem emerged to me. And, if they are not ‘emerged’ now, what’s going to happen to us when they do?
Again, “what is the quantitative measurable definition of ‘emerging economy’ and what is the threshold to ‘emerged.”
It would be the height of arrogance to think that Bonddad the economic star of Huffington Post would respond to me. But, the coincidence is delicious.
This morning I posted the above comment: “The uber-greenshooter wilts” in which I suggest that one DAD’s quotes indicated he was losing faith in the greenshoot ‘weltgeist.’
Well low and behold doesn’t he come back this afternoon with:
“A Personal Note to the Doom and Gloomers from Bonddad
“I (as in Bonddad) still believe the economy will grow in the 1%-2% range for the next few quarters. I have been saying that for the previous 6 months. Until I see otherwise, I will continue to hold to that prediction. In case you are wondering, there are several reasons for this...’’
I have yet to see any data which seriously undermines the above points.”
He has not seen any data which seriously undermines the above points!!!
Where does he look? Obama’s press releases.
Well I hope he is right. If he is not, we are in for a world of hurt.
In the middle of the night, a little blurb from the India press came out that India is "in negotiations" to buy the rest of the 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF, i.e. all of it.
Well, it would seem the IMF is the one making the bad deal and it also sounds like emerging economies, esp. India are trying to decouple from the dollar using Gold.
I'm wondering if something more cataclysmic is under foot, such as a national default on debt somewhere. I am not pointing to the U.S., although trying to believe that the U.S. isn't vulnerable is a huge mistake (this constant belief that the U.S. is rock solid), but something more akin to Russia, S. Korea, Thailand level of default.
More than half of their 403 tonnes of gold for sale is now taken, and it still hasn't hit the open market.
The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday it had sold 10 tonnes of gold to Sri Lanka's central bank for 375 million dollars, as part of a restructuring of IMF financial resources.
"The sale was conducted on the basis of market prices prevailing on" Monday, the IMF said in a statement.
Gold prices had hit a record high that day, topping 1,170 dollars an ounce. Since then, the price of the precious metal has soared higher to new all-time peaks as investors seek a safe haven amid economic uncertainty.
The sale brought the total IMF gold sold to central banks to 212 tonnes. India bought 200 tonnes between October 19 and 30 for 6.7 billion dollars and Mauritius bought two tonnes on November 11 for 71.7 million dollars.
Sri Lanka has a 20-month IMF loan of 2.7 billion dollars that was awarded in July after the island nation's reserves slumped to just over one billion dollars as the government made a final offensive to crush separatist Tamil Tiger rebels.
It's interesting that nations are using dollars they borrowed from the IMF to buy gold from the IMF. Someone is making a bad deal.
I was writing up weekly initial claims and saw a huge pattern. Every week the BLS would claim "big drop" but they would revise the previous week significantly upward so it looked like a "big drop" every week, when without revisions it would have looked like it was increasing to flat.
And as we could see when they finally had to come sort of clean on the October report, nope, unemployment is rising.
I do go with the seasonal, but we have noticed multiple divergence from the NSA to SA this year. It should all iron out in a year average but there are a lot of things happening this year which are not normal.
They have a huge regression analysis algorithm for I went looking into what are the current SA assumptions and I could not find them, just the monthly elements listed.
That's strange for these should at least give an element window into what is in their seasonal adjustments algorithms.
I imagine it's something about seasonal summer help but it should be temporary hiring for the holidays.
Anyway, bottom line is these weekly initial claims have turned into headline cheerleading and just have way too much noise in them to tell me much.
I think the entire BLS data collection needs to be ravamped. It's 2009 and it just doesn't give an accurate snapshot, esp. these weeklies, on what is going on in the U.S. labor market.
First : I am very sympathetic. For instance, I worked for a while with food charities and adult literacy centers. I encourage people to turn their lawns and window-sills into food growing places. When I am teaching a course, I try to include at least one lesson where the group shares their ideas and personal techniques for saving money in a way that is good for the environment and good for personal health (a fun and interesting hour which ends up saving the group many tens of thousands of dollars when calculated over a 10 year period). And more.
Just a question. How much do the "overtaxed" poor get right back in cash benefits? In other words, if I pay $4K in taxes and get $4k (or more back in cash and tangible benefits like food stamps then I haven't actually paid a penny in taxes?)
Secondly, what are the grand totals in dollars? You use percentages. If I pay 5 million in taxes and you pay 5 thousand - we both use the road that cost $ 5,005,000 to build.
If you wish to build support for the people facing social and economic challenges then it is important to start with quality and fair information?
A suggestion (which I like in blog posts about social and economic responsibility) : include links to people who disagree with you. It shows that you are open, constructive and informed? Keep your friends close and your enemies closer?
Another suggestion : at the bottom of each post include a blurb and a link to a simple money-saver idea? Even if your readers don't agree with your opinions, they would get a direct economic benefit from reading your blog?
What if all economic bloggers used this idea? Collectively, we could help our readers save billions of dollars a year and increase our personal economic independence and freedom?
I could call it the Namke "Bloggers Building Free Readers and Economic Excellence" Campaign? The B2FREE Campaign? LAMA! (laughing at my arrogance).
BTW: Found you via the blogroll at the Econosophy blog.
Thanks for your blog post and Happy Thanksgiving to all!
I have been doing an extensive research on what is happening here in America and I would like to you take a look at what has happened as I believe you will recognize what is happening here.
Take for instance this chart that was prepared using the BLS/OES data
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5187
Over a million jobs lost before this crisis even happened.
I also have an extensive set of articles you can find on that site by looking at the sidebar articles in red and I'm sure you will find the wages and GDP articles interesting.
Especially this one that shows that our corporations quit investing in America in 2007, again before the current crisis began in the fall of 2008 and as a matter of fact, I believe that the housing crisis is a symptom of this and not the real cause.
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5379
I also have a solution I believe will resolve the problem immediately that you can read by clicking on the next article
We have serious structural defects in our economy. We have meager job growth even before crisis and now we have even deeper hole. Against that backdrop we have a situation where wages growth has stagnated. We have people wanting to maintain their standard of living with increase debt.
The problem is policy makers in Washington don't have the courage to buck their corporate benefactors do what is right for the rest of the country. IMO, we need dramatic action the will is not there to do it. We needed to press re-set on the financial sector including nationalizing the zombie banks - we didn't do that. We needed true debt/mortgage forgiveness to address the negative equity problem in housing - we didn't do that. We needed real financial reform that included in some form breaking up "too big to fail" - we didn't do that. We need a serious jobs program including new training - and probably won't get that. We need a industrial strategy - and probably get more talk than action. We need some thing to provide a countervailing power to corporations - we won't get that. We need a National Infrastructure Development Bank - but won't get that.
Another sign of how bad it’s going to get for labor:
Today, Boondadd followed his protégé greenshooter New Deal Democrat into the reality of the economic abyss we are in. With the reporting of the ‘new’ GDP for the 3rd quarter significantly less than the previous estimate, the tone of his writing changed.
The ‘Yea Saying’ mocking ‘Doom and Gloomers’ has turned to grim reality. He writes: “I think the FOMC minutes were another "things are less bad" report, but there are still very real concerns about the fragility of whatever recovery we may experience and the ease with which it might jump the tracks.”
I fear we are in the eye of an economic hurricane. When the backside wind hits, it will make last year’s look like a breeze.
That doesn't make me a 'doom and gloomer' - just scared.
Do you think the IMF is warning that there will be a popular revolt if the financial sector is bailed out a second time, or that the financial sector will do away with democracy to ensure itself a second bailout?
Forty five years ago the minimum wage was about $1.00 per hour. That was paid in silver quarters. Those quarters are now worth $13.00. The minimum wage has thus fallen by half. Also, you could buy four or five gallons of gasoline with those quarters at a full service owner operated station.
and export driven economy. If they failed to employ people they know that they would be hung. They have no choice. We just have to realize that there is NO such thing as 'free trade' with China.
Note, because China has no plan B, it is true that if they kill their unfair trade practices, exports, their economy will implode.
But I guess that's just too bad frankly, they should have considered developing their own domestic consumer economy and not done this 1 trick pony to it's ultimate conclusion...wiping out the U.S.
Still, they could put together a staged plan to not have sudden jolts.
When people are forced out of their fields, they are no longer counted as say an "accountant" or an "engineer", they are instead counted as "retail sales" or "restaurant worker".
So, the occupational employment rates are skewed and one needs to look at the total aggregate number of jobs in that field, the absolute numbers.
Even worse, the BLS counts guest workers in their employment statistics.
Well, well, yes the minute one even mentions the realities of increased labor supply, increased population, one gets that "you're a racist xenophobe" crap.
So, ignoring the fact the U.S. population is increasing is just oh so convenient to avoid these labor economic realities!
I'd like to see the total aggregate #jobs as a ratio of the total labor supply, mas o menos illegals too. If illegals are this high end 20M est. that's at least ~3.5% of the total labor supply, so it's significant. (labor supply in the U.S. is about 100M pop. 307M, not every person is working in other words, there are retired, kids, dependents).
There are also about 1.5M guest workers in the U.S. so that would be also interesting. On these visas one has to assume they are working since the visas are temporary work Visas. I don't think they are counted in the population estimates but are counted in the BLS stats.
(otherwise known as what a mess and adds to the explanation on why there is so much noise in the unemployment stats).
You refer to India as an ‘emerging economy’, and in other places China also. What is the definition of an emerging economy? When do they cross the threshold to ‘emerged’? Because the way they are kicking our backsides they sure seem emerged to me. And, if they are not ‘emerged’ now, what’s going to happen to us when they do?
Again, “what is the quantitative measurable definition of ‘emerging economy’ and what is the threshold to ‘emerged.”
Thank you
It would be the height of arrogance to think that Bonddad the economic star of Huffington Post would respond to me. But, the coincidence is delicious.
This morning I posted the above comment: “The uber-greenshooter wilts” in which I suggest that one DAD’s quotes indicated he was losing faith in the greenshoot ‘weltgeist.’
Well low and behold doesn’t he come back this afternoon with:
“A Personal Note to the Doom and Gloomers from Bonddad
“I (as in Bonddad) still believe the economy will grow in the 1%-2% range for the next few quarters. I have been saying that for the previous 6 months. Until I see otherwise, I will continue to hold to that prediction. In case you are wondering, there are several reasons for this...’’
I have yet to see any data which seriously undermines the above points.”
He has not seen any data which seriously undermines the above points!!!
Where does he look? Obama’s press releases.
Well I hope he is right. If he is not, we are in for a world of hurt.
I'm not writing up New Home Sales because I have nothing to say.
here is the press release.
The only thing that makes zero sense to me is the average sales price, $261k.
Frankly who can afford that??? Seriously the average family income that's still a whopping house payment.
Are we still having people sign up for mortgages they cannot afford?
In the middle of the night, a little blurb from the India press came out that India is "in negotiations" to buy the rest of the 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF, i.e. all of it.
Well, it would seem the IMF is the one making the bad deal and it also sounds like emerging economies, esp. India are trying to decouple from the dollar using Gold.
I'm wondering if something more cataclysmic is under foot, such as a national default on debt somewhere. I am not pointing to the U.S., although trying to believe that the U.S. isn't vulnerable is a huge mistake (this constant belief that the U.S. is rock solid), but something more akin to Russia, S. Korea, Thailand level of default.
More than half of their 403 tonnes of gold for sale is now taken, and it still hasn't hit the open market.
It's interesting that nations are using dollars they borrowed from the IMF to buy gold from the IMF. Someone is making a bad deal.
I was writing up weekly initial claims and saw a huge pattern. Every week the BLS would claim "big drop" but they would revise the previous week significantly upward so it looked like a "big drop" every week, when without revisions it would have looked like it was increasing to flat.
And as we could see when they finally had to come sort of clean on the October report, nope, unemployment is rising.
I do go with the seasonal, but we have noticed multiple divergence from the NSA to SA this year. It should all iron out in a year average but there are a lot of things happening this year which are not normal.
They have a huge regression analysis algorithm for I went looking into what are the current SA assumptions and I could not find them, just the monthly elements listed.
That's strange for these should at least give an element window into what is in their seasonal adjustments algorithms.
I imagine it's something about seasonal summer help but it should be temporary hiring for the holidays.
Anyway, bottom line is these weekly initial claims have turned into headline cheerleading and just have way too much noise in them to tell me much.
I think the entire BLS data collection needs to be ravamped. It's 2009 and it just doesn't give an accurate snapshot, esp. these weeklies, on what is going on in the U.S. labor market.
Nice subtly! I hope you create an account and join in the discussion, we need more of this!
First : I am very sympathetic. For instance, I worked for a while with food charities and adult literacy centers. I encourage people to turn their lawns and window-sills into food growing places. When I am teaching a course, I try to include at least one lesson where the group shares their ideas and personal techniques for saving money in a way that is good for the environment and good for personal health (a fun and interesting hour which ends up saving the group many tens of thousands of dollars when calculated over a 10 year period). And more.
Just a question. How much do the "overtaxed" poor get right back in cash benefits? In other words, if I pay $4K in taxes and get $4k (or more back in cash and tangible benefits like food stamps then I haven't actually paid a penny in taxes?)
Secondly, what are the grand totals in dollars? You use percentages. If I pay 5 million in taxes and you pay 5 thousand - we both use the road that cost $ 5,005,000 to build.
If you wish to build support for the people facing social and economic challenges then it is important to start with quality and fair information?
A suggestion (which I like in blog posts about social and economic responsibility) : include links to people who disagree with you. It shows that you are open, constructive and informed? Keep your friends close and your enemies closer?
Another suggestion : at the bottom of each post include a blurb and a link to a simple money-saver idea? Even if your readers don't agree with your opinions, they would get a direct economic benefit from reading your blog?
What if all economic bloggers used this idea? Collectively, we could help our readers save billions of dollars a year and increase our personal economic independence and freedom?
I could call it the Namke "Bloggers Building Free Readers and Economic Excellence" Campaign? The B2FREE Campaign? LAMA! (laughing at my arrogance).
BTW: Found you via the blogroll at the Econosophy blog.
Thanks for your blog post and Happy Thanksgiving to all!
all the best
Namke von Federlein
I have been doing an extensive research on what is happening here in America and I would like to you take a look at what has happened as I believe you will recognize what is happening here.
Take for instance this chart that was prepared using the BLS/OES data
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5187
Over a million jobs lost before this crisis even happened.
I also have an extensive set of articles you can find on that site by looking at the sidebar articles in red and I'm sure you will find the wages and GDP articles interesting.
Especially this one that shows that our corporations quit investing in America in 2007, again before the current crisis began in the fall of 2008 and as a matter of fact, I believe that the housing crisis is a symptom of this and not the real cause.
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5379
I also have a solution I believe will resolve the problem immediately that you can read by clicking on the next article
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5245
Respectfully,
Virgil
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com
We have serious structural defects in our economy. We have meager job growth even before crisis and now we have even deeper hole. Against that backdrop we have a situation where wages growth has stagnated. We have people wanting to maintain their standard of living with increase debt.
The problem is policy makers in Washington don't have the courage to buck their corporate benefactors do what is right for the rest of the country. IMO, we need dramatic action the will is not there to do it. We needed to press re-set on the financial sector including nationalizing the zombie banks - we didn't do that. We needed true debt/mortgage forgiveness to address the negative equity problem in housing - we didn't do that. We needed real financial reform that included in some form breaking up "too big to fail" - we didn't do that. We need a serious jobs program including new training - and probably won't get that. We need a industrial strategy - and probably get more talk than action. We need some thing to provide a countervailing power to corporations - we won't get that. We need a National Infrastructure Development Bank - but won't get that.
So, yeah I think we should be scared.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
Another sign of how bad it’s going to get for labor:
Today, Boondadd followed his protégé greenshooter New Deal Democrat into the reality of the economic abyss we are in. With the reporting of the ‘new’ GDP for the 3rd quarter significantly less than the previous estimate, the tone of his writing changed.
The ‘Yea Saying’ mocking ‘Doom and Gloomers’ has turned to grim reality. He writes: “I think the FOMC minutes were another "things are less bad" report, but there are still very real concerns about the fragility of whatever recovery we may experience and the ease with which it might jump the tracks.”
I fear we are in the eye of an economic hurricane. When the backside wind hits, it will make last year’s look like a breeze.
That doesn't make me a 'doom and gloomer' - just scared.
Do you think the IMF is warning that there will be a popular revolt if the financial sector is bailed out a second time, or that the financial sector will do away with democracy to ensure itself a second bailout?
Forty five years ago the minimum wage was about $1.00 per hour. That was paid in silver quarters. Those quarters are now worth $13.00. The minimum wage has thus fallen by half. Also, you could buy four or five gallons of gasoline with those quarters at a full service owner operated station.
and export driven economy. If they failed to employ people they know that they would be hung. They have no choice. We just have to realize that there is NO such thing as 'free trade' with China.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
history China's Forex reserves.
and even worse, here is a post saying China will devalue the RMB.
here.
Note, because China has no plan B, it is true that if they kill their unfair trade practices, exports, their economy will implode.
But I guess that's just too bad frankly, they should have considered developing their own domestic consumer economy and not done this 1 trick pony to it's ultimate conclusion...wiping out the U.S.
Still, they could put together a staged plan to not have sudden jolts.
too soon to tell but today oil and gold decoupled.
Read this post, nominal GDP.
Here is his graph:
When people are forced out of their fields, they are no longer counted as say an "accountant" or an "engineer", they are instead counted as "retail sales" or "restaurant worker".
So, the occupational employment rates are skewed and one needs to look at the total aggregate number of jobs in that field, the absolute numbers.
Even worse, the BLS counts guest workers in their employment statistics.
Well, well, yes the minute one even mentions the realities of increased labor supply, increased population, one gets that "you're a racist xenophobe" crap.
So, ignoring the fact the U.S. population is increasing is just oh so convenient to avoid these labor economic realities!
I'd like to see the total aggregate #jobs as a ratio of the total labor supply, mas o menos illegals too. If illegals are this high end 20M est. that's at least ~3.5% of the total labor supply, so it's significant. (labor supply in the U.S. is about 100M pop. 307M, not every person is working in other words, there are retired, kids, dependents).
There are also about 1.5M guest workers in the U.S. so that would be also interesting. On these visas one has to assume they are working since the visas are temporary work Visas. I don't think they are counted in the population estimates but are counted in the BLS stats.
(otherwise known as what a mess and adds to the explanation on why there is so much noise in the unemployment stats).
The problem is MUCH MUCH worse. We were probably not keeping up with population growth before the crisis.
According to EPI we need 127,000 per month just to keep up with population growth.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
Is that just the absolute total number of jobs or does it take into account the increase in overall population and increase in the labor supply?
If it does not take into account the labor supply/population increase, it's much worse than the slope suggests!
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