The key is the leaky hole in the leaky bucket - the trade deficit. Fixed investment is showing a performance like 1950 but trade is killing the economy. Government spending is increasing modestly, despite all the noise on both sides.

The economy would be growing at over 6 percent if there was no trade deficit. Anything and everything that helps trade.

I didn't read the paper enough (the pdf), to see specifically how CRE evaluations affected the asset bloat.

Bottom line, doesn't it seem that even with the great Enron/Dot Con/accounting scales corporations simply found new methods to super inflate their balance sheets?

i.e. nothing changed, it simply moved to real estate?

What I cannot also understand is why, when the entire real estate bubble is a glorified Ponzi scheme, cannot, never, doesn't happen, the debt holders simply take a hair cut. Everybody else is getting wiped, except for the mega banks.

I'm waiting on some raw data updates before posting.

There is some astounding revisions going back 3 years, which I will also write about. It's coming!

We'll see 3 revisions total on GDP reports. I'm betting the advance is overestimated, result from missing a host of trade import data.

But on one of my rough correlation calculations, I came up with 1.48% and 1.23% which sent me off on a "what did I do wrong" formula hunt for a couple of hours. That one is missing a month of data (last month just repeated), this was ISM correlation. I've also come up with numbers as high as 2.4%, but that was before the trade data and retail sales.

I like how the #1 answer is "who cares, I need a job". Damn straight. More like econ gives one something to do in-between firing off resumes.

You are right. It takes a while for US Economy to slow down. I can't see 1% or 1.5%. Q3 will be a disaster.

When are they going to start reporting the actual numbers of out of work or underemployed workers instead of the "fairy tale" this is the crap we want you to believe numbers? Why is it that there are no increase of full time permanent workers only marginal jobs that are part time with no real wages and no benefits? Why is our economy under repressive media control with no accountability by the government to the public or for the moral and ethical value of defending the "Truth"? When are we going to wake up and realize that the "New World Order" is going to mean a repressive world wide government regime that will destroy the American standard of living and provide no jobs in the USA?

You've got to read this gem, TMTGM on how Treasury "calculates redefaults" on HAMP.

When the government cooks the books, no surprise they won't crack down on corporations.

I read another report also saying funding for jobs was cut, yet it was very strange, as if they were not actually jobs, but increased welfare payments for not a job.

I hate to sound conservative, but frankly what kind of jobs are these? In other words we have been presented, as discussed many times, with "Stimulus" and "Jobs" that are not strategic, reasonably paying, skill building, infrastructure needing jobs at all. They also refuse to require these "jobs" are even for Americans, in America.

So, I'm kind of leery on these reports. I see some real true blue insanity going on frankly where state and local governments are cutting critical services, i.e. police, fire, when they are not purging the rolls of those who shouldn't be receiving social services at all.

i.e. they are cutting much needed services to the aged instead of cleaning up their rolls.

I know that sounds fuddy duddy but when it comes to really being strategic, using gov. funds for jobs that give the most bang for the buck, which we know there have been so many proposals reports for....those types of jobs get zero support...
they won't do anything about "Buy American and Hire America" either.

So, instead money, taxpayer money just hemorrhages out of the country instead of stimulating it.

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(Great formatting btw!)