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One of the more succinct and clearly explained analysis of why this economy is doing so poorly and will continue for quite a while.. Solid.
That's a great piece of information, the American School. The evidence it's pure global labor arbitrage now is tough to proof, a real research project. One can see in India they are hiring in droves, their GDP is soaring, the same with China. Much of that growth in India is our old jobs, i.e. BPO. Also, corporations like IBM and many others, are busy firing Americans and hiring in India, China.
So, while now the jobs may not be directly offshore outsourced, the new hires are going on there.
Unfortunately getting at these statistics in a nightmare. Our government, in denial or worse, refuses to collect the kind of metrics needed. So one has to go off of corporate press releases, many not in English, released in the U.S. that show new investments, new plants in these countries and hew hires, new contracts in these countries.
Once the China PNTR kicked in, and telecommunications enabled offshore outsourcing, I personally believe the economy never recovered. It was more masked by a huge housing and debt bubble, while the real economy was shipped offshore.
This government and of course Republicans will not confront these problems and do a change of course to put this economy first. It's pretty much only the Populists/Progressives and the Paleo-conservatives, all in a minority (put together).
I made and added a raw industrial capacity graph and this time amplified the fact industrial capacity has declined for the first time.
Jesus, I find even getting the data and then moving to in order to graph it a pain (unlike St. Louis Fred/Fed) but the numbers do match.
I think this adjustment is a story in and of itself though because we went from about 138 in raw capacity to about 124 in the adjustments (these are not exact here).
Look at the May 2010 report.
So, basically that's a massive shrinking of the economy by these new adjustments.
Makes me wonder on the stats themselves. If you are writing (you've obviously analyzing and I don't know if you are the same person who harps on raw capacity), but either one of you, I hope you register on the site and consider doing a post on this, for no one out there in MSM/blogger land seemed to notice the dramatic number shifts here.
I didn't realize they refuse to release the graphs and full report, so I made up a graph to show the pattern.
This is just the beginning of an idea I am developing on the subject - I think it might be fruitful to the discussion on a number of fronts...
Obama said on CNBC that the stimulus created/saved millions of jobs! Banana Ben and Turbo Timmy to the rescue! Gawsh those guys are like superheroes. The stimulus is working guys! The economy is recovering! Green shoots right around the corner!
GREEN SHOOTS
Yeah, I saw it. It's another piece I put in a must read links. This is really terrible. We need spending right now because it's stimulative, but they sure are not restructuring the economy for any recovery so doom probably is on the way.
You're not going to believe this, but I do, team Obama is planning on "working on social security". I said they were going to do that agenda, i.e. strip the last remaining social safety nets, during the primaries but even I did not believe it. Behold, that's the plan and they are going to screw the very people who got denied retirement due to pensions being taken away and "401ks" which are worth nothing in many cases, very same age group.
I mean every single corporate agenda, regardless if it makes any sense economically, esp. for the middle class and this is like one long continuation of George Bush, who was a continuation of Bill Clinton, at least economically.
I to believe that this is all part of the larger Depression. At the same time I recognize that technically someone could say we bounced in 2009.
Nevertheless, if you haven't seen this article you might want to check it out. It is downright terrifying once you realize the implications of it.
I've been collecting a number of debt-related charts and articles recently, so I think I might put together something this weekend.
I don't think there is a single one I wrote up this month that was stellar or did not show at least slowing.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a dramatic amount today. How dramatic? It was historic.
I can move it for you but it entails breaking the link. Most of our readers come through RSS feeds, and all posts go out through the RSS. How about just leave it for now and after we have the Instapopulist "full" with new posts and in the Instapopulists I put the EIs with the FRED charts I use, plus my snide comments sometimes and then for short posts like "SEC slaps GS's wrist" and so on.
Blog posts go into your own personal RSS feed, every registered member has their own blog on EP de facto, so if you want to link to just your own writing, you can just grab your own feed and link.
So, howz that? It's a "trick" I use that won't break the current link but also move it to your blog in a bit. Remind me if I forget, just a few days.
You also have your own upload space for charts and if you're really ambitious, the site does have a version of LaTeX for equations, described in the admin forum.
For I do not believe we will have a double dip. I believe we never have come out of the recession in the first place. So I believe it will eventually be classified as a Depression, abet not as severe as the Great Depression.
His employment analysis from the Great Depression is one of the most popular pieces on this site. I assuming he had a brain aneurysm to explain what happened. NDD never poo pooed EP...directly.
"this is more of a blog post than an Instapopulist."
How do I move it? Let me know.
I just read NDD's latest contribution, and he's finally acknowledged the possibility of a double-dip. A day late and a dollar short, but at least he isn't denying the obvious.
I'll blame him for Timothy Geithner, for Ben Bernanke, for Larry Summers, for Diane Farrell, for giving a speech touting lobbyists B.S. on foreign workers, for Christina Romer with multipliers that are not valid, ignoring the fact one must keep funds domestic in order for a multiplier to hold....
the list goes on and on how he put at the top of his administration, glorified global labor arbitrage, corporate front people and didn't even bother to listen to real experts and go from there. Even Volcker was completely compromised.
The HAMP program was put out to help people by the people for the people in an attempt to save face in a scandaled housing market. With that said it was not intended for the "Banks" to use as they seen fit to pad their wallets by creating a paper trail that made it appear like they helped someone and then eventually screw the already screwed homeowner further by foreclosing anyways.
HAMP money + Foreclosure with short sale on court steps + 1099c sent to the screwed over homeowner = PROFIT far beyond the houses true value.
Don't blame the president for something the banks did, blame the banks for what they did...They screwed you out of hard earned tax payers dollars to repair a situation they created and then screamed loudly "BAIL US OUT!"...it was not intended to be abused, but they sure do continue to abuse it or should I say rape and pilage it to death.
However, we can agree on one thing without argument...STOP THE HAMP program and put the money to better use such as JOB CREATION so people will eventually be able to REALLY recover and maybe, one day, afford a home for real.
I am now to date submitting my paperwork for the 5th time...can anyone say "DEED IN LEU"??? I am so wore out from this stupid process and feel that the only true answer to the issue is to "Stop the bleeding" by cutting all these predatory lenders off of a program that is only serving to pad their wallets.
They state that it has helped 10% of the population but I know that, that number was plucked out of their @55 and is more likely to be 2% at best.
The banks love HAMP it helps their predatory @5535 out of a bind that their creative paperwork got them into in the first place.
I say to all those that are being lied to and told that they will be looked after by the HAMP program should come to a realization of truth...There is no help there is only the truth of eventuallity and it must be faced and I say "BANCRUPTCY" and stuff my house where a monkey shoves his nuts...
Thank-You! Bank 'O' Americano for helping me understand that the acronym for HAMP actually means Happily Accepted Money & Profit...Let the houses rot! and become fertilizer in their miserable hands...I no longer care!
Signed,
BentOverByBankOAmericano
I was putting together a flurry of indicators I missed in the Instapopulist, but all are pointing South. I'm not surprised in the least at this.
On the technical argument, I'm placing my bets the NBER extends the current recession dates and thus it would be technically a Depression (although they would never call it as such). I believe they are letting it ride in this craps cycle dating shoot.
Well, there is no doubt they will ignore their claims like every other prediction made. Notice the great "V" is not mentioned, now it's insults and attacks over a "weak slow recovery". The predictions continually change with no mention of inaccuracy, but one thing remains constant, the personal attacks and jabs against us.
I find that amusing. There are ?? 50 major economics blogs saying about the same thing we're coming up with on this site?
Read this paragraph:
From the BLS real earnings report.
So, 1+1 = 2 ? (0.1 - 0.1 ≠ 0.1)
Seriously, they are claiming earnings rose off of a -0.1% CPI decline yet also note wages decreased -0.1%?
Then, even though the average workweek hours declined -0.3%, they are claiming the average weekly pay was only -0.2% from this magical +0.1% increase in hourly earnings?
I have been almost yelled at on this site for analyzing government statistics and frankly this is probably round off error. But how can one issue a report with such an obviously flaw? Only the government can I guess.
Let's just say workers are getting paid crap and having their hours cut still. That about covers it.
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